Open mike 17/12/2024

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, December 17th, 2024 - 37 comments
Categories: open mike - Tags:


Open mike is your post.

For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Step up to the mike …

37 comments on “Open mike 17/12/2024 ”

  • Comments are now closed

  1. Tony Veitch 1
    17 December 2024 at 7:55 am

    Pat and Chewie rip into the absolute, monumental clusterf**k of the ferries debacle!

    This issue alone, will, quite literally (and pun intended) sink the CoC! 13 minutes long.

    Also, note when Luxon lies, he stutters a bit! He's not a practised (or very good) politician!

    • tc 1.1
      17 December 2024 at 9:57 am

      The election poster is half done.

      We know the side that has ships sailing in 2026, the all up cost including the portside upgrades to give us a rebuilt future proofed link.

      How much is the Coalitions side up to already including the cancellation costs ? What a shit show at Winston needs to answer why he let this play out IMO.

  2. SPC 2
    17 December 2024 at 9:08 am

    The Government’s operating deficits could be $1.5 billion higher than expected over the next three years, delaying a return to surplus until 2028/29, economists say.

    “The Treasury have indicated that it is likely to revise down its estimates of near-term growth prospects and its medium-term productivity assumption, which would lower tax revenue over the forecast period.

    Is the government following bad Treasury advice, or is the error all of their own C of C making?

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/360523815/governments-half-year-economic-update-expected-show-worsening-outlook

    GDP: ‘Low point’ – new data to confirm New Zealand back in recession

    By Liam Dann

    The most positive likely spin on numbers showing a sizeable economic contraction, both in nominal terms and per capita, is that data should start improving next year.

    While there is uncertainty about the exact depth of the contraction – especially after Stats NZ revised up a series of earlier GDP numbers – a consensus of economists is picking a 0.4% fall in GDP.

    That’s worse than Reserve Bank (RBNZ) forecasts for a 0.2% contraction.

    Either way, if second-quarter figures aren’t markedly revised, it would mean the economy slipped back into technical recession, its third in two years.

    https://archive.li/tEE65#selection-3749.0-3749.68

    A number of other nations returned to growth after managing inflation downwards …. not here.

  3. Kat 3
    17 December 2024 at 9:13 am

    The CoC ship is already sinking……..2025 will see the rats scurry to the decks……the call to abandon ship will never be made though…….rescuers will rush to the scene in 2026…….Chippy & Co will have a titanic salvage job in 2027……

    • Tony Veitch 3.1
      17 December 2024 at 9:40 am

      Like the Russian tanker that broke in half in stormy seas in the Kersch Strait, cracks are already appearing in the good ship CoC.

      Winston is already talking up the cost of iRex to $4B because he knows there isn't a hope in hell of getting 2 'Toyota Corollas' for less than the $3.2B of Labour's Ferrari project.

      Luxon is clueless, but Seymour is indifferent to the new ferries being rail enabled, so if they're not (and Winnie loses the fight) – goodbye to rail in the South Island.

      The way this CoC is mismanaging the whole business, as one person commented – we'll end up with two rowboats towing a small rubber raft – but . . . but . . . within budget!

  4. SPC 4
    17 December 2024 at 9:20 am

    The German (Social Democrat) Chancellor passes on his job to the Leader of the Opposition (Christian Democrats).

    This by calling for a motion of confidence, losing and then holding new elections which will result in a CD and SD coalition.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckg36pp6dpyo

    Why, FD a pay down the debt first party admitted it needed to be permanently removed from parliament (for being unsuited for government in the current era, Germany has inexplicably under invested in recent times) leaving only a CD and SD coalition possible.

  5. Barfly 5
    17 December 2024 at 9:45 am

    Are you fucking kidding me?

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/politics/360524953/minimum-wage-increase-15-2350-hour-april

    That 'Cruela de Ville' piece of filth is excelling herself

  6. tWig 6
    17 December 2024 at 10:19 am

    Classic austerity: hide wage cuts by not keeping up with inflation. Hey, this year, work for less in real terms than last year! This happened to me under the Nats in the 80’s and 90’s.

    In the UK, this led to a 20-30% drop in real wages for, eg, teachers, nurses and doctors in the public sector over the 14 years of tory rule.

    And you can hide it so easy to so many. Labour needs to belabour this point, that CoC shrink your income by stealth.

  7. Drowsy M. Kram 7
    17 December 2024 at 11:28 am

    Media should make point of speaking to the CTU this afternoon on HYEFU
    [Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update] [17 Dec 2024]
    In an unusual move, the Taxpayers’ Union is standing with comrades at the Council of Trade Unions following Finance Minister Nicola Willis’ petty decision to have Treasury officials ensure CTU Economist Craig Rennie could not attend today’s Half Year Fiscal and Economic Update.

    Probably too late for Willis to do a U-turn, à la Brownlee – the lady's not for turning.

    “Three great forces rule the world: stupidity, fear and greed.” – Einstein

    "The modern conservative is…engaged…in one of man's oldest, best financed, most applauded, and, on the whole, least successful exercises in moral philosophy. That is the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness." – JK Galbraith (1964)

    Seven Signs of the Greed Syndrome (2016)
    The bigger question we should ask ourselves is how can we change the societies we live in that are based too much on acquisitions and excess? As Schopenhauer said, “wealth is like sea-water; the more we drink, the thirstier we become.” If we learn how to overcome greed, we may have a simpler, more meaningful, happier and richer life.

    Quote of the Year opens for voting [Friday 13 Dec, 2024]
    The highest number of nominations was for Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s declaration that he is “wealthy and sorted.”

    Well, that's sort of what our PM said – no wonder the interview was 8-minutes long.

    "… and, um, you know, let's be clear, you know, I'm, I'm wealthy, I'm you know sorted…" [@7:33 minutes]

    'Mr Wealthy and Sorted' – Kiwis know what he is saying, don’t you know.

    https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO2412/S00075/govt-announces-no-christmas-for-children-in-persistent-poverty-for-the-next-10-years.htm

  8. Mike the Lefty 8
    17 December 2024 at 11:55 am

    I recently watched some episodes of the series The Crown about the Margaret Thatcher era.

    I can't get over how similar to Thatcherism is this CoC.

    Luxon, when he finally gets his arse kicked, will react exactly the same – what did I do wrong? My only thoughts were for the balance sheet……

    • Belladonna 8.1
      17 December 2024 at 1:33 pm

      Margaret Thatcher – the longest serving British PM in the 20th century (1979-1990).
      Is that really your vision for Luxon?

      • Rolling-on-Gravel 8.1.1
        17 December 2024 at 6:07 pm

        They are speed-running Thatcher.

      • Incognito 8.1.2
        18 December 2024 at 11:08 am

        How long does a hot-air balloon ride last?

      • weka 8.1.3
        18 December 2024 at 11:33 am

        Thatcher decided there was no such thing as society, so she set about destroying. Luxon's National are destroying it for different reasons I think, but the similarities are there.

        You can't compare terms between the UK and NZ. The UK have 4 year terms, so Thatcher had just under a 3 term government. Which is less than the NZ norm 😉

        We have MMP, not FPP. The polycrisis world makes it unlikely that NNZACT will last a full three terms. Hard to see what comes after that tbh, I'm not sure we will go back to the 2 – 3 terms, let the other lot have a go pattern.

        • SPC 8.1.3.1
          18 December 2024 at 11:53 am

          Their terms are up to 5 years. She was elected 3 times – chose new elections after 4 years in 1983 (Falklands play) and again 1987.

          She lost the leadership of the party to Major in 1990, who won the next election in 1992 (term till 1997).

  9. joe90 9
    17 December 2024 at 12:00 pm

    Halve the funding for a successful midwife immunization programme for pregnant women in a community most affected by GP shortages.

    The boot fits, uncle Shane….

    //

    A highly successful immunisation programme for pregnant Māori and Pasifika and their babies in South Auckland had its funding cut earlier this year, amid warnings of a looming whooping cough epidemic.

    Officials declared the epidemic just over three weeks ago, as cases spiked to levels not seen since 2018.

    The Counties Manukau Maternal and Immunisation programme vaccinated 2500 hapū māmā against whooping cough in two years to the end of April, helping to nearly double coverage for local Māori mums-to-be, from 17.5 percent to 36 percent.

    Papatoetoe midwife Judith Johnston-Niuelua from Niu Life Midwives – one of the organisations delivering the programme – said vaccination against whooping cough in pregnancy was the best protection for vulnerable newborns.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/536874/immunisation-programme-faces-funding-cut-as-whooping-cough-looms

  10. SPC 10
    17 December 2024 at 1:38 pm

    The government is committed to a second Mount Victoria tunnel, so the 10% job loss in Wellington in the past 12 months is not going to be enough.

    Treasury predicted unemployment would peak at 5.4% next year. It forecast a 12% increase in people on jobseeker support by mid-2025, to about 217,000 people, costing $600 million a year. This was forecast to reduce to 204,000 over the next four years, costing in average $200 million a year.

    Willis said the jobseeker figures were reflective of the economic recession, which “has been both more protracted and deeper” than previously understood, she said.

    They cut government spending while interest rates were high, does no one understand Keynesian economics anymore?

    Planet Earth to Brian Philpott where the bloody hell are you?

    https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/106336/economist-brian-easton-says-we-are-failing-think-though-interdependencies-economy

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/politics/360524695/government-make-further-public-sector-cuts-surplus-kicked-out-2029

    • alwyn 10.1
      17 December 2024 at 7:09 pm

      "Planet Earth to Brian Philpott where the bloody hell are you?"

      He (and it was Bryan by the way) died away back in 2000. I don't think he is available for a consultation.

  11. SPC 11
    17 December 2024 at 1:48 pm

    Do not be misled by what you read.

    The most telling line in the whole document is the one that hits livelihoods, living standards and economic opportunity.

    “Since the September quarter of 2022, per capita GDP has fallen 4.6%, making the current downturn a deeper per-capita recession than the global financial crisis,” The Budget Policy Statement reads.

    That means that the living standards of each New Zealander has dropped by nearly 5% over the past two years. That is a large reduction and along with inflation and high prices, is the driver of grumpiness among voters, an outflow of people to Australia, and has and will lead to higher unemployment.

    Each … the PM has realised untaxed CG in the past year of c$1M.

    It should read average, its worse for those without jobs, and better for those who are wealthy and sorted – just as the C of C wanted it.

    https://www.thepost.co.nz/politics/360525247/bigger-recession-each-kiwi-gfc

  12. SPC 12
    17 December 2024 at 2:05 pm

    Willis and Malpas Street talk

    Lifting New Zealand’s productivity means doing a thousand things better,” Willis said. She is correct.

    But she is not doing them.

    Cutting research funding and sending research personnel offshore?

    The same with general public sector capability?

    And providing no incentive for productive investment over speculation for CG?

    What do 35 of the other nations of the OECD know about economic growth?

    The macro settings across the economy will not change much, but it is microeconomic and supply side reform that will boost living standards in the long run.

    The government focus on (private time maximisation) road building is not efficient economic use of scarce government capital.

    Why not a healthier, better housed educated workforce (well being) with a thriving productive sector ….

    This has always been the uniting logic of the coalition. The question has always been around the political skills of making and then linking those reforms with the bigger picture. This is something Willis has been attempting to do for some months now. It takes time, discipline and that most underrated of political skills – creativity.

    Is he auditioning for the role of her "eulogist"?

    Liberalising New Zealand’s dirigiste overseas investment regime, where investing in New Zealand is explicitly considered a privilege, is now the next big cab off the rank in the economic space.

    What! They want to make it an entitlement to invest in a nation with no CG. To own our stuff, has anyone told NZF?

    https://www.thepost.co.nz/politics/360525247/bigger-recession-each-kiwi-gfc

    • Muttonbird 12.1
      17 December 2024 at 2:25 pm

      Malpass is a National party aligned journalist. Despite the column subtitled, "analysis" he didn't bother to question this:

      Finance Minister Nicola Willis showed slides outlining just how much the forecasts have been downgraded – at pains to point out the revisions were not as a result of Government policy.

      It seems obvious to Treasury (they are having to revise), and most voters, so why would this idiot just swallow such bullshit unchallenged? Because, as you say he is first a defender of this government.

      • SPC 12.1.1
        17 December 2024 at 2:36 pm

        AI Overview

        Dirigisme is an economic doctrine where the government has a strong role in directing a market economy, rather than simply regulating it. A dirigiste government, model, or state is one where the government has a lot of control over the country's economy.

        This lot think even regulation is too much.

        • Incognito 12.1.1.1
          18 December 2024 at 11:18 am

          This lot think even regulation is too much.

          Only regulation of the free-market economy, regulation of legislation is not only desirable but mandatory. No legislation, existing and new, should be an obstacle or brake on the free-market economy and its associated capital & property ownership.

  13. SPC 13
    17 December 2024 at 2:19 pm

    The short version.

    We got a glimpse of how nasty this could be at the May Budget, when Treasury warned the Government would lose out on $28 billion over the four-year forecast period. A third of that loss was thanks to the Government’s tax cut package, but the other two-thirds were a result of lower economic growth reducing the tax take.

    The fact that this is likely to be revised down again barely six months later shows just how deep a hole New Zealand is in – and it’s getting deeper.

    https://archive.li/knqln#selection-4011.0-4015.149

    Two different responses.

    Concern for people.

    Fleur Fitzsimons, acting National Secretary of the Public Service Association Te Pūkenga Here Tikanga Mahi, said more public sector cuts will cost lives.

    "This reckless drive to cut costs shows the Government is prepared to put dollars ahead of the lives of New Zealanders," she said.

    "Public service workers and the valuable work they do are being sacrificed for this irresponsible obsession. The Government must re-think its approach."

    From ACT

    Cut the size of government within the economy again and again and again … and never stop.

    "The Government books are grim. The real accounts were worse under Labour than were published at the time. Only now are we seeing the full picture with revised figures," he said.

    "The Government’s commitment to a $2.4 billion spending allowance is far less than the effects of inflation and population growth on its operating spend.

    “The tight spending allowances mean the Government must make real per capita spending reductions every year. It must become more efficient every year to keep up with demand for its services, just as every business must do."

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/360524865/live-treasury-releases-half-year-economic-and-fiscal-update

    Any alternative, but that and open up to foreign investment (including rental housing) and private sector ownership of hospital and school buildings?

    No.

  14. SPC 14
    17 December 2024 at 3:33 pm

    As per health groups and food banks getting their funding cut, councils are being told to also end funding related to the well being of their communities.

    The over-arching theme is regulating local council spending, with the threat of rate caps in the air.

    https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/government-getting-local-government-back-basics

    From 4 minutes.

    • Obtrectator 14.1
      17 December 2024 at 4:45 pm

      Local government is ceasing to be anything of the kind, the new country no better than the old:

      "And it's through that there Magna Charter,
      As were signed by the barons of old,
      That in England to-day we can do what we like,
      So long as we do what we're told."

  16. Mike the Lefty 16
    17 December 2024 at 7:22 pm

    The Opening of the Books.

    Things are bad and are going to get worse.

    National's stock reaction: Its everyone else's fault – not ours.

    I'm sure there will be a post tomorrow about this and I'll comment further then.
    I’ll go to bed feeling guilty about being so unpatriotic as to not take the blame for it.