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Open mike 17/04/2011

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, April 17th, 2011 - 99 comments
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Open mike is your post. For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.

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Step right up to the mike…

99 comments on “Open mike 17/04/2011”

  1. Carol 1

    OK, this is just more National-JK BS.  I’m already fed up with the Rugby World Cuop (and I like to watch the ABs on TV), and I have more than enough of the media coverage in NZ of the up-coming royal wedding.  I’m glad Goff has spoken out about it,

    Protocol dictates the royals cannot visit a Commonwealth country in the weeks before an election to avoid being seen to support a political party.

    Labour leader Phil Goff said Prime Minister John Key should “honour” the protocol and not exploit any royal visit for political gain by posing for photographs with the prince and his new bride Kate Middleton.

    Key has dodged the tradition by saying members of the royal family are welcome on “a private visit”.
    He has been photographed with the prince on a number of occasions, notably at a Premier House barbecue, and on visits to Greymouth and Christchurch this year.

    Goff warned Key to avoid any “photo opportunities” that he could use to his advantage in the election campaign.

    He said the protocol applies whether it is a private or official visit, and Key should “honour” that.
    “I think it’s great if Prince William is coming to New Zealand for the Rugby World Cup and wouldn’t in any way want to discourage him from doing so. I think he’d be very welcome in New Zealand.

    “The responsibility really is on John Key to respect the constitutional protocol by not using the visit for self-promotion or electioneering, which means he has got to behave very carefully so as not to be seen to be doing that,” Goff said.

    but I say, the prince should stick to an important ptotocol & just stay away from NZ before the election.  How can any visit he makes to NZ really be “unofficial”, and how can he not be associated with the government while visiting?

    If JK wants to see protests during the RWC, go ahead and get the prince to NZ for the rugby.  I’ll be more than happy to join any demos against his presence & againts the way National blatantly tramples all over democracy and its protocols.

    • Carol 1.1

      Further to the issue of media coverage of the royal wedding & couple:  I recall that the news outlets online (Stuff, TV One/3, or NZ Herald?) did polls immediately after the engagement.  The results showed that most of the NZ respondents weren’t interested in the topic – and this when most of their polls are skewed to the right.
       
      But the news media kept on with pretty much saturation coverage of the couple, and now it seems there’s more interest in it in NZ (or is there?).   I thought the news media said they covered topics because they were interesting to the public, but here we see the media creating and nurturing interest in this celebrity fluff, circus topic.
       
      I had heard the reason why TV One & 3 don’t cover more of the nitty gritty of politics is because viewers switch of it.  But how about if the media made more of an effort to cover the important political topics, to explain the issues and varying related perspectives, and presented in a reasonable interesting way? ….  rather than persist in foregrounding archaic monarchist sentiments, run through a celebrity culture prism.

      • ianmac 1.1.1

        Applause for both of your above posts.
        gobsmacked posted yesterday about Hootens take on Epson. Interesting” 9

        It’s all getting messy in Epsom … super size my popcorn!

        http://m.nbr.co.nz/article/matthew-hooton-nats-reject-act-deal-epsom-mh-p-90831

      • Alwyn 1.1.2

        Most viewers don’t give a damn about politics and switch off except in the last few weeks before an election.
        Last weekend when TVNZ were discussing the results of the Colmar-Brunton poll and who was the preferred Labour leader they showed one member of the public photos of the possible options. The person concerned did not have any idea who Little was and identified Cunliffe as being the “one who had to resign”.
        Similarly in the Wellington Council elections I know several people who were surprised after the election when Green party figures started popping out of the woodwork after Celia W-B won. She had campaigned as an “Independent” and all here campaign material was in orange. Despite being well educated they had not registered that she had Green party leanings.

      • Draco T Bastard 1.1.3

        I thought the news media said they covered topics because they were interesting to the public, but here we see the media creating and nurturing interest in this celebrity fluff, circus topic.

        That’s what they’d like you to think but it’s fairly obvious that they cover topics that distract from and hide what’s happening in the real world. It’s dangerous for the “elite” if the public knows what’s really happening and the corruption that is inherent within the capitalists system.

      • Well Carol good to find a fellow Republican. Like you and a few others Im sick to death of the bloody Royal family. I just cannot understand how Kiwi workers slaver at the mouth over these parasites.
        As a young boy I lived in a tenement row slums owned by the Duke of Wetminster  a Royal,Family member 6th or 7th in line something like that . Charged 2/6 a week rent and if you missed a payment out one went onto the road. Then as an apprentice in a racing stab UK my boss trained for Royalty . Bloody mean and arrogant. Let us not forget that only a wedding ring saved us from a fascist King a friend and admirer of Hitler and Mussolini . Roll on the Republic.

        [lprent: Removed the all bold comment again. Is there an actual problem? Or is this just fun – because it is wasting my time and you’re about to fade out entirely. ]

      • Sam 1.1.5

        Could it be that the public is fed up with the navel gazing that Labour is involved in? That the public is fed up with “gay” issues so permeating the party?The latest TV3 poill suggests that it (the public is).
        Labour is running the risk of being a minor party to a Greens led coalition in oppostion.
        Don’t blame the media, blame the party.  If the Labour party was a publicly robust organisation, instead of a narcistic, inward looking partyy, it would get a lot more traction.
        The old story permeates this website – the activists blame the medis, they should be blaming the party ( don’t shoot the messenger?).

  2. Tiger Mountain 2

    More micro targeting from the Natz, my guilty pleasure watching V8s on TV was spoiled when Shonkey pops up in Stone Brothers Racing garage, not interviewed from what I saw, but the association was made for a certain niche of kiwi males, just like his Fishing Show appearences prior to 08 election.

    PMs make all kinds of ceremonial appearances, I recall Muldoon at the Auckland cup (at least he used to get booed) and Helen Clark at League matches but Key and horsepower? get back to the catwalk.

    • Deadly_NZ 2.1

      Yeah and now that The Giz has won the second race he will be crowing about it ad nauseum.

  3. So National is being slow in selecting a candidate for Epsom. What is the bet that if the polls start to turn they will reconsider and try and manufacture a situation where ACT may survive?

  4. joe90 4

    Are the birther and tea party movements straight out racism?.

    Yup, confirmed.

  5. felix 5

    mickysavage posted this on Marty G’s thread, and I don’t want to mess up that thread so I’ll reply to it here if that’s ok.
     

    I wish that my party (Labour) did not vote for CERRA. If people want to know why they did the process went something like this:
    1. The Christchurch MPs who live in the thick of it think that emergency legislation is an absolute must.
    2. They live in areas where people are just coping and surviving day to day and do not want to argue about the niceties of constitutional principle.  They just want their politicians to get on with the job of rebuilding. The MPs wished to respect the view of their citizens.
    3. The rest of the caucus deferred to their world view.
    This is not an apology, just a description of how it came to be. The Nats sensed this and I suspect loaded the legislation as much as they could with stuff that Labour hated. It was the ultimate dead frog. Hearing Brownlee gloat at the beginning of the third reading of the bill was for me one of the most obnoxious things I have heard in Parliament.
     

    So what was Labour’s reason for voting in favour of the copyright amendment under urgency the other night?
     
    Labour seems to be developing a disturbing habit of speaking against bills and then voting for them. It’s what we’ve come to expect from the spineless and easily led ACT & maori Parties, but Labour? Sheesh, grow a pair.
     
    Here’s a template press statement for next time, Labour can have this one for free:
     
    Labour leader Phil Goff says “Fuck this urgency, fuck compromising to get a slightly-less-shit result, we’re against this bullshit and we’re voting against it and furthermore when we’re next in govt we’re fuckin’ binning it too.”
     
    Could probably clean up the language a bit, but I think plenty of kiwis would back them for taking a stand.

    • Jenny 5.1

      To my mind Felix, this “disturbing habit” started when the Nats raised GST to 15%.

      On one hand, the Labour Party ran a national campaign under the banner “Axe the Tax”, with the other hand, Labour promised the Nats they would retain the increase on regaining the treasury benches.

      What can be done to cure Labour of this “disturbing habit”?

      capcha – “requesting”
       

      • Lanthanide 5.1.1

        That campaign made no sense to me. Especially when they deliberately said confusing things like “GST is going up 20%!” – talk about painting yourself in the same image of those you’re trying to dethrone.

      • Draco T Bastard 5.1.2

        What can be done to cure Labour of this “disturbing habit”?

        Don’t vote for them, vote Greens instead. Here’s even more apologetics from Labour about why it wasn’t a constitutional outrage to vote away our rights under urgency and without input from the people. It can no longer be denied – Labour is just another hand of the corporates in their efforts to relieve us of our wealth.

      • Sam 5.1.3

        They were being stupid, that is what happened.  The “Axe the Tax” campaign failed because deep down the Labour party stands for higher taxes, always has and always will.
        The public saw through the hypocrisy, it is as simple as that.  
        Goff  should have campaigned on reverting back to 12.5% completely, then he may have gotten somewhere.

    • Heard loud and clear Felix.  I expect you will see the formal use of the word “bullsh*t” soon to describe one of the nat’s policies.

    • ianmac 5.3

      Yes to micky’s post. I was wondering about that. Whilst the supporters were thundering contempt for Labour not refusing to vote for the Bill, I suspect that the Nat leadership were hoping like hell that Labour would not vote for it so that they could slam into Labour for contempt for the Christchurch people. Instead Labour have declared that they will be watching Brownlie very carefully. And that might prove to be the wiser course.

    • Bill 5.4

      CERA is crap.
       
      But then, the existing systems for coping with upheaval or disruption are crap.
       
      So what we have is crap that will eventually default back to crap.
       
      And any debate on ways to organise ourselves better or more intelligently using resilient and democratic systems is avoided.
       
      Which plays into the hands of Labour as much as it does National as it leaves the legitimacy of remote hierarchical (and usually bureaucratic) systems of control (which they both advocate) beyond scrutiny. And leaves our hands empty and held out yet again and as always, systemically disempowered and simply awaiting alms to come down from the benevolent ones on high.

  6. logie97 6

    Lock ’em up? Who would have thought it … a Tory Minister seeing the light?  Collins et al,  just don’t get it!!

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/apr/16/ken-clarke-prison-waste-money

    Clarke last year unveiled a green paper on sentencing as part of government plans to cut the £4bn prison and probation budget by 20% over four years, promising to end a Victorian-style “bang ’em up” culture and reduce high reoffending rates by tackling the root causes.

    • ianmac 6.1

      logie. A brave but wise man is Clarke. While in NZ we develop ways to increase imprisonment.
      On the face of it looks bad here.
      85,000  from pop 65,000,000  jail population in England and Wales.
      8,500    from pop of 4,500,000 jail population in NZ.
      I am sure Phil Goff went on a fact finding tour about wiser imprisonment a few years ago. Came back brimming with ideas on reformation but it died under public pressure. Wonder what the public really think?

  7. todd 7

    Selling the Environment

    http://thejackalman.blogspot.com/2011/04/selling-environment.html

    New Zealand has a serious environmental pollution problem that has been largely ignored by consecutive National and Labour Governments. With an estimated total of 10,060,000 Tonnes of effluent discharge from pulp and paper mills into NZ waterways each year, it is something that cannot be ignored.

  8. The Truth 8

    Both the major political parties we have in this country seek to take our freedoms and liberties.
    They have different ideas on how to enslave us, but as time goes by and each side is effectively doing the same thing whilst we the working class slave to turn the wheels of the nation.

    The corruption is too intense, the lobbying too powerful, the corporations run everything.

    You morons on the left think more government is the answer, while you morons on the right hold on to this belief that rich people are wonderful and create jobs. While the executives perch in their ivory tower, the peasants slave away at our crappy underpaid jobs. 
    The higher the taxes, the more of our liberty is taken from us, the less we see our families as we grind to make ends meet.
    The time to fight came and went and now we endure the consequences.
    They figured out that they can fool us with the illusion of power, the entire system is rigged and has been for a long time, regardless of which corrupt party you vote into office, we will forever remain modern day slaves.  

    • Frank Macskasy 8.1

      Ok. Well, can you advise this moron on the left, what your alternative is?

    • MrSmith 8.2

      Go easy ‘The Truth’ I’m sure your heart is in the right place, but maybe you should sit back, light one up and relax, we are not going to die till tomorrow.

  9. Hi folks!
    Know about this?
    ” OPERATION 8″
    CutCutCut Films is pleased to announce the release of Operation 8, a feature length documentary about the 2007 ‘anti-terror’ raids. Operation 8 is screening in the 2011 World Cinema Showcase, in Auckland, Wellington and Dunedin – with the world premiere on Sunday 17 April, 2.45pm at the Paramount Cinema in Wellington.
    Screening times are as follows:
    Wellington – Paramount Theatre
    Sun 17 April, 2.45 pm; Mon 25 April, 2.45 pm; Wed 27 April, 3.15 pm
    Auckland – Skycity Theatre
    Mon 18 April, 3.00 pm; Mon 18 April, 8.15 pm
    Dunedin – Rialto Cinemas
    Mon 9 May, 8.30 pm; Tue 10 May, 11.15 am
    Tickets for the film are available at the respective cinemas.
    You can read about the film and watch the trailer here:
    http://www.cutcutcut.com/Operation8.htmlhttp://worldcinemashowcase.co.nz/titles11/operation8.html.
    ________________________________________________________________________________________________
    Given all the ‘MAN ON THE MOON’ headlines about the ‘Tuhoe terrorists’ (yeah right), then the attempted silence on the public’s right to know that the accused were going to be denied their right to a jury trial – this should be a VERY interesting documentary?
    Penny Bright
    http://waterpressure.wordpress.com
  10. Deadly_NZ 10

    And the spin doctors have been noses down in the trough as well.
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=10719854

  11. willie maley 11

    Garner creams himself live on TV3………………what a surprise!
    His new paymasters must be delighted.

    • Tiger Mountain 11.1

      What a pathetic display, and as per my comment above, Shonkey (pronounced as per faux French “jeankey” V8 venue in the background.

    • Carol 11.2

      I’ve given up watching TV3 news, because I have no interest in sitting through the manipulations of a government puppet.  I watch up bit of TV One News, hoping fruitlessly that we might one day get a proper public service TV news.  Then I switch off when it becomes unbearable and/or focused on uneccessary stuff, like royal weddings….. or switch over to Stratos.

      • lprent 11.2.1

        TVNZ7 news at 8 is ok. Informative with less hysteria than the TV1 news.

        I guess that explains why they’re cutting it – and I will have to go back to ignoring TV news as being too trivial and light weight to be bothered with.

  12. mouse 12

    Hows this from Jenny Shipley….

    Shanghai Pengxin has said it would spend more than $200 million to both buy and also upgrade the Crafar farms.
    A further $100 million would be spent marketing its products.
    ”I’m not familiar with the company or the current bid, but let me remind us we are wealthy today because we’ve done business with the middle classes of the world,” Mrs Shipley said.
    http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/4898390/Get-over-China-fear-or-get-used-to-jandals

    I wonder if Jenny has given any thought to the implications of this deal on the current account deficit, or the competitive position of fonterra and/or NZ Inc.

    This lady would sell NZ into Peonage with all the fore thought of an Obese person chasing their next Twinkie.

    If this were Iraq… I would throw my jandal at that woman!   

     

    • Draco T Bastard 12.1

      This lady would sell NZ into Peonage with all the fore thought…

      As much as I agree with the sentiment there was no need of the insult.

      • todd 12.1.1

        The stomach staple means she no longer craves Twinkies. Perhaps they accidentally stapled her brain as well, that would explain the “I know nothing but I know everything” sentiment.
         
         

  13. PeteG 13

    Some simple poll arithmetic suggests Labour’s current labouring is fruitlessly labourious. Bad for Labour, bad for New Zealand.
     
    The leader and list are pretty much fixed for the duration. Do they reassess some of their methods and strategies? Or box on believing that eventually the public will change, wake up (or something) it may start to work?

  14. gobsmacked 14

    I don’t usually have much time for the “bad poll = rogue poll” line … but the TV3 one tonight is pretty dodgy.

    Not because Labour are at 27%. That’s no surprise, they’ve been inviting supporters to desert them. But the Greens and Winston haven’t picked up any votes, and I don’t buy that. Every pissed off Labour voter I know talks about the party’s <i>failure</i> to oppose National, and they aren’t rushing into John Key’s open arms, they’re looking for alternatives.

    So, big serving of salt with this one, I reckon. 

    • PeteG 14.1

      Winston is on his own, there’s only so many who will support a one man band. The Greens may be peaking.
       
      I suspect a major factor will be “did not respond” and “did not choose party”.

      Still, there should be some worrying going on. Can’t blame it all on Damien O’Connor.

      • MrSmith 14.1.1

        More subliminal massages from pete.

        “Winston is on his own”, “The Greens may be peaking”. Bullshit!     How about theses messages pete.
         
        national will lose the election The Greens and Winston will share the balance of power!

    • The Voice of Reason 14.2

      Spot on gs. Winston had over 4% support for most popular PM, but half that number supported him on the party vote. It doesn’t add up.

    • Puddleglum 14.3

      It might be relevant that conservative estimates of the number of Christchurch people who have left the city are around 60-70,000. Many of those who remain, eg., in the eastern suburbs, won’t be inclined to answer polls. Those away probably won’t be the people answering the pollsters in the houses they are in.

      Many parts of the east are almost like ghost towns.

      Possibly, many of these people would be left-inclined given Christchurch’s past voting history.  That would probably be enough to skew a poll that was not systematic about covering for areas of Christchurch (e.g., kept, in effect, dialling Fendalton numbers until they got a response).

  15. todd 15

    I’m just wondering if anybody knows what areas of the country the One News/Colmar Brunton, TV3/TNS, Roy Morgan, and NZ Herald/Digipoll Polls are taken?

    • lprent 15.1

      I’m just wondering if anybody knows what areas of the country…

      They will do them all over the country where there are listed landlines – ie in the phone books.

      Which essentially means the more conservative and affluent groups. Phones in Central Auckland including the Mt Albert ring of suburbs is about 55% last time I looked. In South Auckland it is about 45%. In the North Shore it is over 75%. In places like Hamilton and Palmerston North it is over 80%.

      The Auckland white pages has been diminishing in size for quite a while.

      • todd 15.1.1

        So is it up to these organisations to randomly choose the numbers to ring? Being that you could provide a list of numbers that had a disproportionate amount in favour of affluent or pro National areas and as you have pointed out a disproportion already exists, it would seem to be a rather inconsistent way to gauge public opinion.
         
        Polling has often struck me as inconsistent with events. I think the best thing to do is undertake a small test to see how correct the figures are… Perhaps an amount of calls based on voters to each area would be best. It would also be helpful to know a bit more about the process these organisations use.

  16. ianmac 16

    Again this poll did not show undecided did it? If 20% are undecided and that is possible given these turbulent times then polls can be misleading.

    • Carol 16.1

      Nats up 2.9%, Labour down 3.8%; margin of error 3.2%

      Clearly it’s the average of polls and over time that is more significant.

      • mickysavage 16.1.1

        The mediaworks preferred polling company does not have a great record.

        There is a wiki page at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_New_Zealand_general_election,_2011 which suggests that  Reid Research tends to be all over the place with some polls differing by 7+ % to Roy Morgan or Colmar Brunton for the same period.

        Not good but let’s await the real poll.

        • PeteG 16.1.1.1

          According to DPF: “The TV3 poll was the most accurate public poll in the 2008 and 2005 elections.” That will be on party support only obviously, that’s all that is voted on that is polled.
          November’s still a long way away but it’s a big hill to climb for Labour, having just slipped down a bit more..

          • mickysavage 16.1.1.1.1

            Hahahahaha

            PeteG either you or Farrar or both are spinning this.  The TV3 poll may have been the most accurate public poll in the 2008 election but, but, but and it is a really big but TV3 changed polling companies after the 2008 election.

            It used to use TNS.  After the election it moved to Reid Research.

            So the TV3 polling company may have been the most accurate but Farrar spins it by suggesting that the current accuracy is just as good.  Looking at Reid Research’s website I suspect that Mediaworks has settled on a cheaper company to TNS.

            Farrar is clever but the slightest bit naughty by making that statement.

          • lprent 16.1.1.1.2

            Only in the final poll (and personally I think that Morgan was more accurate in both elections looking across all parties). There is a lot of evidence that it wasn’t exactly accurate until all of the polls started converging.

            Also that was TNS, and this is some other crowd.

  17. PeteG 17

    Parties:
    National 57.5%
    Labour 27.1%
    Green 7.7%
    NZF 2.8%
    Maori 2.5%
    Act 1.7%
     
    Leaders:
    Key 52.4%
    Goff 6.8%
    Peters 4.4%
    Clark 2.5%

    75.8% say Key is performing well, 12.9% say he is performing poorly
    26.7% say Goff is performing well, 49.3% say he is performing poorly

    • The Voice of Reason 17.1

      Got the numbers on how many punters were surveyed? And the survey period?

    • Carol 17.2

      Leaders:
      Key 52.4%
      Goff 6.8%
      Peters 4.4%
      Clark 2.5%

      That just adds up to 66.1%.  Who else got a vote for preferred leader?
       
       

      • PeteG 17.2.1

        I got the numbers off their news video online, no other details.
         
        I wondered that too Carol. They usually leave undecided responses out of the totals, perhaps they leave them in (but don’t mention them) with the preferred PM.

    • Sam 17.3

      And there she is again – Helen Clark.

      Phil Goff must be getting peeved off, I don’t see the previous National leader, a certain Don Brash, feature anywhere.
      No matter how many people were surveyed – she is still there. 
      So even if these people surveyed were all National supporters, why is Antie Helen still there?

  18. gobsmacked 18

    Those approval ratings (“performing well”) are the giveaway. Preference ratings are different i.e. you might be disappointed with National but still think they’re better than Labour (or vice versa), and the party vote numbers make no distinction between reluctant preference and adoration.

    But approval ratings tell us more. And we’re supposed to believe only 13% are negative for Key, but twice that number are positive for Goff (even in a bad poll). Doesn’t add up.

  19. Bored 19

    The Poll…..I dont need the intellectually challenged stooges of the right to tell me that there is something very wrong with the common garden NZers perception of reality. Crisis everywhere even if the MSM dont report or only treat it as photo ops for a pillock PM, and a government flailing absurdly: then theres the “opposition”. Pathetic Labour. And pathetic too the apathetic citizens of NZ dreaming only of when they can aspire to have “good times” again.

  20. Bored 20

    As an aside on the so called TV3 “News”, the dimwit reporter stated something along the lines of “no leadership challenge as nobody in Labour wants to be the loser, they will just let Goff take the blame”.
    I hope to hell that is not the case because that is a stink attitude. There is far too much at stake. The left needs to win. Turning up to lose is just not acceptable. There is only winning, nothing else. You dont see real teams, real champions for their siupporters lamely turning up to lose. If Labour MPs think they are going to lose they should just pack up and go home now. In the words of Chopper Reid “Harden the F up” Labour!

    • Anne 20.1

      @ Bored.
      It was the ignorant jerk, Patrick Gower. He makes things up in his head and reports them as fact. A bit like our RWNJs.

      • gobsmacked 20.1.1

        Gower’s report violated basic professional standards.

        File footage was used, of several Labour MPs (Chadwick, Barker, Sepuloni, Nash, etc). This footage was presented as if they were responding to the TV3 poll, or to Gower’s questions about Goff.

        But in fact the footage was from separate and unrelated occasions, on different days going back several months.

        Media 101: library footage should be labeled as such. And you NEVER include audio, giving the impression that the people concerned are answering your questions posed today (they weren’t).

        A reputable news organisation would be giving Gower (or his editor) a right bollocking for that. Sadly, this is TV3.

    • M 20.2

      Bored, Phil needs a dose of Helen’s Medicine:

      “There is no plan B”

      I really don’t who to vote for as Labour appears so mute and beaten. My first instinct is to give Labour two ticks to rid us of the National incumbent in our electorate but then Labour in many respects appears to be Nat lite in light of Phil’s more right leanings. The Greens policies line up with many of my thoughts for our future and blow the buggers who freak out over someone smoking a bit of weed.

      Of course I could split Labour/Green. Are any of the authors planning any articles on this for the upcoming election for the marginal electorates?

      There’s always NZF and whilst Winston is great for sticking it to the other parties you always know it’s the Winston Show.

      Arrgghh I need some paracetamol.

      • todd 20.2.1

        You don’t know who to vote for because Labour is already beaten… I guess the propaganda is working then.

        • M 20.2.1.1

          todd, I wrote appears to be beaten and hope Labour rallies. I certainly don’t believe the right’s propaganda, but crikey Phil could try harder to give the appearance at least of being a pit bull and not a chihuahua – fake it until you make it. Sometimes the appearance of success and capability is as important as actually possessing those qualities, and though it pains me to write it Keyster does have all the appearance of success although his veneer of competency is finally starting to wear thin which should be zeroed in on by Labour.

          Because Phil seems so diffident Key is getting a glorious free ride and on current form might sleepwalk to victory and that makes me frightened for the future of this country and my fellow NZers. If voters do not view Labour as an alternative then they may return NACT again on the premise that Labour cannot offer them anything better.

  21. beelezubbles 21

    lprent “Which essentially means the more conservative and affluent groups.  Phones in Central Auckland including the Mt Albert ring of suburbs is  about 55% last time I looked. In South Auckland it is about 45%. In the  North Shore it is over 75%. In places like Hamilton and Palmerston North  it is over 80%.”

    Irrelevent, lprent. As I’m sure you know, the pollers will be asking the respondents basic demographic quesions ( age, location etc) and will keep ringing until they\’ve got enough respondents from each broad category. The 1936 Presidential phone poll bias fiasco is taught in every politics and stats course, do not pretend that any professional polling organisation doesn’t take this into account when designing their poll.
    There is no hiding from this drubbing. The country has rejected the left.

    • gobsmacked 21.1

      “The country has rejected the left.”

      Since you strongly believe in TV3 polls, you will therefore accept their findings on the issues, won’t you?

      On the ISSUE-based polls run by TV3 since the election, the public have opposed the position taken by the Right … Asset sales. Kiwibank. Schedule Four Mining. You name it.

      So clearly you are wrong. The country does not reject the message. It does reject the (current) messengers. 

      Would you like an election based on the issues? 

      • beelezubbles 21.1.1

        gobsmacked, the only useful mesaure of peoples opinon is the party vote. Whatever people think about those issues it’s not a big enough of a deal for them to affect their party preference. You come accross like someone who came second in a race trying to cheer yourself up by telling yourself that your shorts look better than the winner’s.

        • gobsmacked 21.1.1.1

          “the only useful mesaure of peoples opinon is the party vote”

          So under MMP New Zealand has never been a right-wing country then? Agreed.

          Why did Key adopt so many Labour policies in 2008? Why didn’t Brash get more votes in 2005?

          The “people’s opinion”, as you put it, favours the current Prime Minister’s persona, but has never favoured the policies of the Right.

          • todd 21.1.1.1.1

            We’re in serious trouble when the war of personalities wins out over a war of issues. Really what you have done here gobsmacked is highlight another inconsistency within the polling. Perhaps it is in the way the poll questions are worded… Has anybody had a call from a pollster?

    • Anne 21.2

      I’d listen to 1prent over you any day bubbystubbles.

    • Draco T Bastard 21.3

      As I’m sure you know, the pollers will be asking the respondents basic demographic quesions…

      Not necessarily. In fact, they’re more likely to go with the numbers and just choose random numbers from the phone book on the principal that averages work out. Actually doing all the work you suggest they do would cost money and, if nothing else, NZ managers don’t pay if they don’t have to.

      • beelezubbles 21.3.1

        Ummm, no they’re not. The “who has a phone” bias is, as I mentioned, the canonical example of bias in polls. No professional poller is going to expose themselves to the level of ridicule they would get for not taking it into account. To suggest that is just nuts. But it pleases me that you are prepared to go that far into fantasy land in order to deny these results. They must really sting.

        • Michael 21.3.1.1

          It’s not – poll companies have a profile of NZ that says 15% are women 35-54, 14% are men 35-54 and so on (I’ve pulled those figures from my butt.)  Then they ask enough questions upfront to make sure they haven’t got enough respondents in those demographics.

          And there is a bias towards the “landline” owners actually voting over non-landline owners, who tend to be younger and less wealthy (the two groups least likely to vote.)

          What should set alarm bells ringing is that if this is a bottom end rogue poll, a top end poll still gives National enough votes to govern alone. (Maximum margin of error swing of 6.4% below 57%)

        • Draco T Bastard 21.3.1.2

          Did I deny the poll results? Nope – just your fertile imagination.
           
          Tell you what, why don’t you prove what you said. Easy enough – just get the polling companies to release the demographic data to go along with their polls.
           
          You see, I’ve done phone polling before and the instructions were to start at a specific page and call every third number until I had the required number of respondents. Other people were told to start on other pages. This is all they do to get “random” results and they’re going to assume that their “random” sourcing gets the right demographic mix. All they’re going to do is go for the numbers – get ~1000 respondents and assume that those results are demographically correct. They may ask for demographic data but their not going to ensure that they have exact demographic covering every age group, every job type or anything else as that would take to damn long and cost too damn much.

        • lprent 21.3.1.3

          Don’t be silly. This has been an issue that has been concerning me for the last decade – specifically since I started detecting significant differences between phone canvassing and door canvassing in Mt Albert and tracking it down to the differences between the set of phone population and the door population.

          Even more than Melissa Lees screwup’s in the Mt Albert by-election, I’d say that the unrepresentative population from phone polling was what caused National to make such a screwup in that electorate in the by-election. They believed the numbers that they got when they were phone polling because they didn’t look at the number of available phone numbers in the electorate.

          The households with land line phones was about 55% and falling. The people who have phones polled as being conservatives regardless of their demographics compared to any other polling technique.

          It is pretty axiomatic these days that having a landline around Auckland means that you are a conservative – you do things in a traditional fashion. Rather than having an unlisted phone, just a cellphone, or just a prepay – you actually want to make it easy for the bloody telemarketers and pollsters to waste your time. Landline sampling in Mt Albert and other Auckland electorates is an exercise is targeting mostly the old (the age demographics for listed landlines are startling), the lonely who like telemarketers calling them, and those too stupid to ask for an unlisted number.

          Quite simply statistically you can’t “take that into account” because the variance between the two populations is so high.

          But of course polling companies really don’t have any other viable low cost survey technique apart from landline polling. For some reason I suspect that they’re not too interested in pointing out its inherent flaws. But it is pretty clear when you look at the vast differences between the polls from different polling companies that there are a few.

          It does rather explain why the polling companies never publish their basic methodology. There are rather too many people around who have been trained in stats to one degree or another, and who’d love to poke holes in the presumptions.

          Incidentally, the polls are still useful. If they are polls that are taken frequently then the trends get useful regardless of how much at variance with reality the numbers are. In NZ only the Morgan poll does that with its 2-3 week cycle.

          But the poll that you are credulously hoovering up as reality happens too infrequently to be of interest and has never appeared to take any significant care with its sampling techniques either before and especially after the last election. One of the reasons that it always seems to produce extreme outliers. It is suitable for the stupid like yourself and your cousin the teleprompted waldo in front of a camera after a soundbite.

          • RedLogix 21.3.1.3.1

            You may well be perfectly right Lynn, but a story about a gap this big becomes the perception.
             
            This govt is slowly but certainly closing out down all non-corporate media that could independently hold it to account.  Everything that matters is sly spin and slant designed to serve the interests of the wealthy. There has not been one single story in the media about the left for years now, that hasn’t been used to subtly denigrate, twist or turn some minor issue into an absurdist drama. Or simply ignored as they do the Greens. Everything is about the ‘game’ of politics, substantive issues are sneeringly dissmissed, people who care enough to get involved are labelled ‘activists’, and nothing is of value unless it can be given a dolllar value, or get’s some rat another rung up the greasy ladder.
             
            In person Phil Goff is likeable, intelligent, and experienced… and perfectly capable of running a decent govt for this country….and that’s the Phil Goff Labour Party insiders know. But the rest of the country have been told a different narrative, that he’s a dithering doofus nobody, wooden and cannot win an election.
             
            Such an gap between reality and public perception is the direct result of a deliberate, pervasive propaganda group-think campaign against the left from the spineless lackeys who infest the media in this country. You have to understand that the one thing these people fear more than anything else is the truth, they reflexively loath intelligence and competency because it would show them up for what they are. This is why they love John Key so much, he’s one of them and can be counted on to make them look good.

            Key feeds them the mindless, unchallenging pap their editors want to fill in the awkward gap in the news after they’ve headlined their crime story leads for the day. Their job now is to defend and protect Key, run distractions for him and ensure that all scandals are minimised or sanitised. At no point will they ask any hard questions. They will do anything to ensure he wins the next election. Oh they’ve become very good at looking like they are being fair and balanced, when like Fox News anyone with a pulse knows they are not.
             
            As for the 60% of New Zealanders who will vote for Key this coming election; they are doing so because in these uncertain, anxiety provoking times they have become apathetic and passive… and will do exactly what they are told.
             
             

            • todd 21.3.1.3.1.1

              There is no point in blaming the apathetic for their misconceptions. They’re victims of a war of information we have been aware of for some time now. Most people do not have the time or inclination to find alternative news sources…

              That is why such propaganda machines are so dangerous, they warp perceptions until people are uncertain of the truth even when it is presented. The media creates a window that the viewer must look through, even when that viewer knows that the image presented is false. I hate to think of how many times a person has repeated an argument they have seen on the news. The power of brain washing should not be underestimated and nobody is fully immune.
               
              Those who purport to be reporters should understand that undertaking this course of action is very dangerous and not only in terms of their careers when an enlightenment or revolution occurs. It is clear that a certain amount of desperation precedes such undertakings, driven by misconceptions which ultimately will fail from achieving anything but destruction. It’s a vicious cycle that must be broken.

            • M 21.3.1.3.1.2

              You have to understand that the one thing these people fear more than anything else is the truth, they reflexively loath intelligence and competency because it would show them up for what they are. This is why they love John Key so much, he’s one of them and can be counted on to make them look good.

              RL, sterling description of our current predicament and it shows the depth of anti-intellectualism out there. I don’t know all the ins and outs of politics but do make an effort to read and try and understand what’s going on, that is, if there are well-written articles about various topics that will affect all our futures – props to TS.

              Some people think that life begins and ends with American Idol, Desperate Housewives – gaaaa – getting blotto on a Friday night and pissing away their hard earned wages for a temporary oblivion that blinds them to the decisions being made by the government that may impact their lives severely. NACT has made the ten-second sound bite encouraging clannishness, like low paid workers against the unemployed, an art form to shut down dissent but it seems to be working, sigh.

            • lprent 21.3.1.3.1.3

              RL: Oh I agree with that side of it. Why else would I be up checking on this server at 0530’ish. 

              But the same effects that allow such a concentration of the media are also what is steadily dooming the traditional media long-term – for much the same reasons as I was discussing about polling.  There are several age related rolling edges running through society at present. The landline one with its sharp drop off of listed lines below my age. There is one with the people who grew up with digital media and find time wasting ads to be just irritating. Several others that I can’t be fragged thinking about at this point in time.

              But the net effect is that the mass population effects that so characterized politics in the 20th are having less and less effect and are less and less applicable. These days they attract the conservatives in all age groups. 

              The difficulty is at present that with the high proportion of people brought up in the 20th cause a sounding board mass. They sound louder than they actually are.

              The actual real problem for the left isn’t the Labour is ineffectual message being promulgated by and to the conservatives.

              It is the widespread perception amongst the progressives and the less well off groups in society that Labour is just playing things too damn safe. That isn’t the message that is coming from the mass media (I can’t see their owners promoting a more socially aggressive message). It is the one that is spreading through the social media and through the communities.

              Of course these are also exactly the people who aren’t in the polls and are who Labour draws on when it comes to actually doing the real poll. When they stay away from elections is when Labour loses.

    • lprent 21.4

      As I’m sure you know, the pollers will be asking the respondents basic demographic quesions ( age, location etc) and will keep ringing until they\’ve got enough respondents from each broad category.

      Incorrect. Most of the companies ring x numbers of people in each area until they get enough for the overall sample size that they contracted for.

      If you’re lucky then they adjust the results by boosting and reducing multipliers on results to match the demographic ratios. Of course all that really does, if there is an underlying bias like the types of people who have landlines, is increase or decrease the effect of that bias.

      What they don’t do is keep calling people. If they did then you’d expect to see a lot more variation in their reported sample. As it is the sample sizes are statistically the same each time (one you look at the usually variation of people that don’t offer and opinion) and that is highly unlikely if they were following your theoretical model.

      You could just exercise your own brain and test that out. Just look at the reported numbers of people in the sample over numbers of the same poll. There is usually only a few percentage difference. In fact less than their margins of error.

      Your problem is that you think the customers of the public polls (ie the media) give a shit. These are not high quality polls and aren’t designed to be so. They’re designed to get a headline for the least amount of expenditure and effort. For the polling companies they are pretty much loss leaders done for advertising purposes. It shows through in their results.

      You can understand why they don’t release any information about their methodology. Instead they rely on people like you expressing faith that they (of course) must be doing the right thing without looking at it.

      Have you invested in any finance companies in the last decade? They also relied on the same kind of unquestioning credulous stupidity towards authority amongst their investors.

  22. outofbed 22

    If Labour wants to stop asset sales it has to win the election
    It is obvious that Labour under Goff is not going to
    So therefore Labour to have any chance, has to roll Goff
    So please get the fuck on with it

    • r0b 22.1

      oob – I appreciate that you mean well, but with respect, don’t be an idiot. Panic in election year never does anyone any good. If New Zealanders wake up and see what’s going on in this country, Goff’s Labour will win the election.

      • todd 22.1.1

        Whatever the outcome, it’s going to be an interesting lead up and election. It was strange to see so many people lapping up the right-wings con of a lack of confidence in Phil Goff… I guess if people are dumb enough to believe that, then we will get the Government they deserve, in that case I’m moving overseas with no forwarding address. Good luck getting me to pay my student loan.

      • RedLogix 22.1.2

        r0b,
         
        But they won’t wake up. The endless drip of Mogadon media we are being fed is to ensure we do not.

        • r0b 22.1.2.1

          In normal times I would agree with you, and expect that Nats to get another term or two. But these are not normal times. The economic mess the Nats are in, and the hard squeeze that is on every family’s budget, these are not normal. The mess they are making of Christchurch is not normal. I still believe that we the voting public can’t help but notice these things over the year ahead…

      • outofbed 22.1.3

        Not sure that it is idiotic I would say pragmatic/realistic
         
         

    • KJT 22.2

      Labour could stop asset sales in their tracks very easily.

      A few simple words.

      Any assets sold to the detriment of NZ will be renationalised without compensation, if that is in NZ’s best interests,  the next time Labour gets back in.
      It would not even be breach of contract as it would be clear from the outset to any possible buyers.

      Too late now to roll the Neo-Liberal wing of Labour, now, before the election.

      Just hope they grow some balls in the next few months.
      One thing Helen Clark had.

      Following red Alert they seem to be in a dream world.
      Moderating out any criticism.

      • Lanthanide 22.2.1

        “It would not even be breach of contract as it would be clear from the outset to any possible buyers.”
        Sorry, but it still would be breach of contract, unless National wrote into the contract that Labour was going to re-nationalise it without due consideration. National won’t do that, therefore it would be breach of contract.
         
        The contract is between *the government of New Zealand* and the buyer, not The National party and the buyer.

  23. seeker 23

    People in the northern hemisphere are really beginning to wake up to the socially unethical, selfserving, nationally catastrophic, economic policies of the right.
    It must surely become harder for people like George Osborne/David Cameron et al and Bill English/Johnkey et al to defend the indefensible
     
    http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/david-blanchflower

    • RedLogix 23.1

      People in the northern hemisphere are really beginning to wake up
       
      But this little backwater of a country is a decade behind them.  We are still in a frightened, quivering huddle hoping it will all turn out ok.

  24. Vicky32 24

    Hey, just wondering why I am not getting notifications? Hope nothing is wrong..
     

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