Science validates Trump: "analysis of the coronavirus by specialist biologists suggests that all available data shows it was taken into the market by someone already carrying the disease. They say they were "surprised" to find the virus was "already pre-adapted to human transmission"… The claims come as Beijing thwarts global efforts to establish the source of the virus. The news will fuel concerns over the Communist regime's cover-up".
"The new research is clear in its finding. "The publicly available genetic data does not point to cross-species transmission of the virus at the market," said Alina Chan, a molecular biologist, and Shing Zhan, an evolutionary biologist."
Since apparently I have not been following closely enough, can you point out what the stable genious said which has been validated and what statements by the authors of the study validate it?
It looks to me like you were clickbated by the Herald into a narrative carefully not made or excluded by the writer.
I doubt you're really that superficial! All over the global news in recent weeks, doesn't really matter which source to quote. However, the BBC gives this context from over a month ago:
Easy to see why the US, part-funding the lab research into batshit coronaviruses, feels partially responsible for the outcome. Hence tries to muscle China into sharing responsibility. As if it were a moral stance, y'know?
All the study concludes is that the virus samples from the wet market mutated less than a virus which just jumped species was understood to mutate. The implication is there was an earlier infected case who brought it into there.
It doesn't say anything about where that case jumped species. Just it wasn't at the market according to the evidence of the study (+ its hard to exclude anything based on our understanding of virus evolution).
It certainly doesn't validate Trumps conspiracy theories about the virus source.
The item comes across to me as a puerile attempt to somehow cast aspersions on China and give credence to Trump’s assumption it is part of a sinister Chinese plot. Further to that, it could have happened elsewhere in the world but it happened in China. So, the big lesson for them is to ban the bloody disease ridden wet markets for starters.
Note: this story is being touted by Fox News. That's enough to cast aspersions on the motivation.
Fox News reporting secondhand something Trump said doesn't count as evidence for the validation claim imo. The bit you quote isn't from Trump, it's from Fox.
Anne made the same point. I'm somewhat averse to Fox myself, of course, but I feel I ought to make a point about how news orgs operate (based on my ten years working in the TVNZ newsroom cutting news & current affairs stories).
Bias & professional standards go hand in hand: the former covert/tacit, the latter overt/explicit. So one must decode.
The key point is that I sourced it from the BBC. Do they routinely republish stuff from Fox? Not that I've noticed. So the editorial decision to do so was made on merit. Is the BBC right-wing? Since the early '70s, I've not seen anyone claim that (in those days all state media was `fascist'). To the contrary, it's been normal in right-wing circles to call the BBC socialist since the '80s.
So the news editor made the decision on newsworthiness. My take is that the code-word `multiple' triggered that decision. It implies more than several. So when a journo checks for confirmation from independent sources and encounters multiple, perception along the lines of `hell of a lot of smoke, must be a fire' happens.
So the BBC editor concurred with the Fox editor on that basis. Now you & Anne may feel Fox just invented the multiple sources. Having been equally cynical a very long time I can't be critical of that – just believe it is very unlikely based on my experience of broadcast practice.
that's all very interesting Dennis, but all I need is the actual quote from Trump so I can weigh it up against the claim that he was right.
If (according to the NZH link) Trump "claimed it emerged from a Wuhan laboratory working on bat-borne diseases", then where is the back up for that? Your quote says that someone carried it into a Wuhan market. That's not the same as it coming from a Chinese lab. It might be, but who knows?
The claim that "Science validates Trump" has yet to be demonstrated on both counts 🙂
Thus far it looks like clickbait (MSM and yourself) and politicbait (two macho countries).
Okay, I see where you're coming from. I think the Herald was simply recycling the common view that had formed over recent weeks based on what Trump and others in his cabinet had said.
I agree that I was painting with a broad brush without providing details. I had in mind the shaping of mass perceptions – along the lines of folks believing in climate change as opposed to lack of detailed proof. 😇
When you read “a report attributed to multiple unnamed sources” without any further evidence to corroborate the claims your alarm bells should go off like emergency sirens. A similar PR tool is ‘anecdotal evidence’. When the stakes are high, the burden of proof is high too. Until that time, it is all innuendo and hearsay. Didn’t think I had to lecture you on that!?
There are professional disciplines around scepticism/sources which the BBC editor would have applied. That person is part of management – not just a journalist. The ethics of protecting sources come into play.
Sure, you & I can be as sceptical as we like. Having spent a large part of my life making news stories for journos, I have ended up moderating my natural scepticism, balancing it against my informed view of how those people work.
You can bypass all that and cut it out from and avoid the clouding of your thinking if you focus on the science. Read the ‘landmark study’ and forget about the political framing by a broadcast company with strong and historical ties to political establishment. Don’t be lazy or a sheep, think for yourself.
Look, political outcomes are produced by media framing. Trying to ignore that defeats the point of political commentary. What matters is what determines the decision-making in the court of public opinion. Scientists seeming to validate Trump's stance does exactly that.
His poll ratings will not be effected by what is written in scientific papers unless media reports give it sufficient weight!
I do it to alert folks to the likely effect on mass perceptions. It is that effect which is most influential in (co-)creating political reality. I assumed you would understand that. Do you not??
And I note how you subtly misrepresented what I wrote by deleting "seeming". Naughty!
I love anecdotal evidence. It basically amounts to "I heard from Gladys down at the Four Square that Eunice Carlyle in number seven eats cats. That's why your Fluffy's been missing for six weeks."
Eric Trump reckons the virus is a hoax concocted by the Democrats to sabotage The Tangerine Abomination's election chances, probably because his old man told him so, so yeah, we can all rest easy.
Thats interesting Dennis. The western newspapers certainly took to the theory of the Wuhan market like a duck to water . Misleading videos of bat soup being drunk , and calls for the wet markets to be banned.
Now that much earllier( mid November) cases of covid 19 are being detected by re examining samples and chest xrays from unusual pneumonia cases in France , Italy and the US, we will eventually find patient zero
Wuhan may have been the first to identify the unknown novel virus(probably because they had the best virologists on hand)but that is not grounds for pinging it as the source. Wuhan is a large city with huge number s of annual visitors
A visitor could easily have carried the virus from elsewhere
Hindsight will be our teacher here
Entertain all the theories you like, but new information is gathering every day
If someone said yesterday that a person bought the virus into the market they would be labelled a conspiracy theorist. I find it interesting you're open to entertaining that theory now, but not the other lab source conspiracy…
New information is is becoming available.Thats why the rush to point the finger is so stupid
But really, would you not have considered that as a possibility?
As far as the lab source goes, there's no evidence.Several western colleagues of the Wuhan virologists who have knowledge of the lab and its research also declare the unlikelihood of an escape
I posted this link yesterday but you can lead a horse to water etc
Well if it was bought into the market, then the market is not the origin of the virus. Which makes all the "scientific" finger pointing at the market just an initial guess.
The vox article relies a lot on people who have a connection to the lab, and more so on Mr. Daszsak who I thought was leading project work there. Not a bad little PR exercise. If science/media wanted to rule out the lab, they would at least investigate the work being done there. Which is the sort of work Martenson has been doing…
There's a logic fail and a conceptual fail in your comments.
The logic fail is simple: accepting that there were cases before the market cluster is logically different to focusing on a particular potential source for that market clust (in this case the lab). Apparently there was a possible case in France in November that has been retrospectively identified. that means that not only is the lab connection a red herring, the entire focus on Wuhan might actually be a case of "Spanish Flu" all over again – the virus started somewhere completely different, wandered around the globe, but it clocked off in China for some reason.
The conceptual fail is the idea of the index patient. The earliest detected infection is not usually the source, it is simply the first case detected.
for example, the known index case for AIDS was almost certainly not the person to get it first.
Note that the Wuhan-Hu-1 isolate was taken in early December 2019 and the market samples in January 2020, according to ‘the new landmark study’. However, the original published paper states “a single patient who was a worker at the market and who was admitted to the Central Hospital of Wuhan on 26 December 2019 while experiencing a severe respiratory syndrome that included fever, dizziness and a cough”. Confusing, but it emphasises the close links, in space and in time, between Wuhan-Hu-1 and the market samples.
the virus started somewhere completely different, wandered around the globe, but it clocked off in China for some reason.
Logical fail right there.
What you selectively omit is the first known case in Wuhan is now dated on Nov 17. So we know it was present in the city on or before that date. What we don't know is in what numbers, or when the first human case really occurred, but it could easily have been sometime in October.
What we do know is the virus has a period where cases are low and mostly asymptomatic. But at some stage inside a month they inevitably take off, and that first happened in Wuhan in early December when the local hospitals started reporting unusual pneumonia's. At least four to six weeks earlier than anywhere else.
Logically this still places patient zero in Wuhan in the one city on planet earth where there is a BSL4 lab studying closely related virus's.
Sure other explanations are still going to be possible, but any serious investigation is going to have to start where the first known outbreak occurred. All else is wishful thinking for obviously political ends.
And in my link, there may have been cases in France at about the same time as the first known case in Wuhan.
Any serious investigation it going to start with confirming that the first known outbreak was in fact the first outbreak. A step you seem to frequently skip over in your obsession to build a case against your prime suspect.
Any serious investigation it going to start with confirming that the first known outbreak was in fact the first outbreak.
All the evidence from multiple countries in the past five months, is that it circulates at low, mostly undiagnosed levels in a population for 2-8 weeks, and then if no containment measures are in place, without exception the serious cases start arriving in the hospitals at an exponential rate. That first happened in Wuhan.
But hell you could be right. Xi Xinping looks like he's going to agree to an investigation.
well, no, not quite all the evidence. E.g. the possible French link. E.g. lack of a comprehensive review of retrospective tests from samples around the world, just to be reasonably sure that the first few cycles of infection didn't occur somewhere completely different to your preferred prime suspect.
But all the evidence you're prepared to consider conveniently points to a handy case of culpable concealment by an organisation you really dislike. Lucky, that.
But the earlier cases suggest that it could simply be trade-related, and the actual crossover occurred somewhere else: dude has cold, goes on trip, visits market (not even selling any animals or meat), infects a stallholder who infects their colleagues, dude goes back home and gets over the cold. Didn't infect anyone else because luck and the stallholder was their main contact (or just luck).And by the time that the dude has returned, the pig that got it from a bat and gave it to the dude has been cooked.
Alternatively, the evil communists covered up that their lab leaks like a seive, that the half dozen people who worked there all got colds in late October, and none of their colleagues from other countries noticed.
Your interpretation of the article and research is quite flawed. It has been obvious for a while that it wasn't a new species jump. The mutation rate was too low.
All that was said was that it was unlikely that this virus did the species jump in the market. Unlike SARS this one didn't show signs of immediate adaption to another host species. And it was likely that human brought the virus, already adapted, into the market and very likely into Wuhan.
My bet is that there is a population of humans around somewhere that has had the SARS (or something like it) virus endemic in their villages for quite a while, and trade has brought it to Wuhan.
Trump, being a mindless fool will of course prefer your explanation. The Chinese being rather paranoid at present will deny.
Net effect is that with all of the idiotic headline generated dick waving we're not going to get teams in to trace the actual source. Where there is one human adapted virus after a species jump there are likely to be a few.
I'll keep an open mind on the source. The main point is that the scientists cite genetic evidence that the source is unlikely to be from the raw meat market, and since Trump was suggesting the lab as a likely source, they are validating his stance. That's how it will seem to most media consumers. I realise you have some kind of experiential basis for your commentary and haven't found reason to disagree with your overall view, but it would be interesting to know what that basis is…
Whatever the understandings about overall view, your overall view is that Trump is right, 'science validates Trump' and that should be fed to media consumers.
It's the great sort of things for headline writers – 'Science backs Trump Wuhan picture.'
You know the picture, the blockbuster movie he wants us to believe, Chinese scientists beavering away trying to create some terrible disease to wipe out America and other parts of the world for their political and economic advantage.
I can imagine if Trump doesn't win in November. He'll have it that Obama used the American scientists in their work in projects with the Wuhan Institute of Virology to help the Chinese plot and scheme to get rid of him and the coronavirus was the vehicle.
Peter: "your overall view is that Trump is right". Me: wrong conclusion. No evidence that he is. So I just pointed out that the scientists have validated his stance. Directing suspicion against the lab is a valid political strategy now that science is ruling out the "cross-species transmission of the virus at the market".
Science is a contestable discipline, so we await input from similar highly-qualified specialists. The research findings of the duo may turn out to be insufficiently robust. I do agree Trump will not scruple to use the plot scenario for re-election purposes if he feels the need.
I can imagine if Trump doesn't win in November. He'll have it that Obama used the American scientists in their work in projects with the Wuhan Institute of Virology to help the Chinese plot and scheme to get rid of him and the coronavirus was the vehicle.
A prescient scenario. And since Biden is just Obama's puppet (Obama is the real president) then he is equally culpable. "Lock em both up for treason" will be the rallying cry. 🙄
You can play around with that. But essentially it looks like the number of genome sites that the virus has diverged has been pretty low (even now). That speaks to a virus that didn't just jump to humans. It has been used to humans for a while. We're talking years or even decades.
Most of the changes that are still extant worldwide were already present in Wuhan. It really doesn't seem like there are many mutations that aren't getting pruned by covid-19's own systems
Whereas if you looked at SARS, which was definitely a species that just jumped to humans. Killed a very high percentage of its hosts. Had a lot of variations even in its brief career.
The main point is that the scientists cite genetic evidence that the source is unlikely to be from the raw meat market, and since Trump was suggesting the lab as a likely source, they are validating his stance.
At a political level – yes of course. And the attitude of the Chinese about getting medical survey teams in isn't helping. They should just exclude all political appointees and go with actual known active virologists and plan to have them in-country for about a year chasing the source down.
Covid-19 will be just one of a range of human adapted viruses from whatever the original source is. Having Trump waving his dick around, apart from it being unhygenic and probably diseased, doesn't help in finding out what the next pandemic will be.
I only follow the general gist. I'm a physics graduate – ignorant of genetics. So did you study genetics at university? I just want to know if your analysis emerges from some kind of formal qualification. I can already tell you grasp the reasoning involved – I just need some kind of frame to put on that.
Which would be true if you assume a natural process. But routine lab procedure are exactly intended to force viral evolution, speeding up mutation rates in order to get to results within days or weeks, instead of having to wait decades.
Our problem here is that most of us are very unfamiliar with this whole area of science and it makes evaluating competing claims very difficult. Here is another informed view:
The flow chart for the above research is quite characteristic of the kind of work that gets done in BSL-4 labs. It may be summarized as follows:
• Find a nasty pathogen in nature, or create one by a bit of ordinary cloning.
• Test the pathogen’s ability to grow in vitro on various mammalian cells.
• Test the pathogen’s ability to cause illness in or death of live mammals, like mice.
• Try to figure out, from a number of well-established receptor proteins identified by legitimate laboratories, which human protein the pathogen might recognize.
• Try to neutralize the pathogen with antibodies in vitro.
• Check if the killed pathogen or a low number of the live pathogen will work as a vaccine in live mammals, like mice, and protect them in future encounters with the pathogen.
This is the identical flow chart that is probably followed for the development of bioweapons. In particular, if a vaccine can be raised against a pathogen, then this allows its creator to vaccinate himself and safely use the pathogen as a weapon against his imagined enemies. It is a banally evil path that is well trod by a particular kind of pedestrian scientist.
The sort of study where a scientist creates a pathogen is politely labeled gain-of-function research by biologists. It raises eyebrows in the scientific community whenever such work gets generously funded or prominently published, like the paper I just described, which appeared in the journal Nature Medicine in 2015. Gain-of-function research continues to be funded, however, with no oversight from the public that finances it and is most likely to suffer from it. For the most part, this kind of research goes unpublished.
The whole article is quite readable and interesting. Our fundamental problem is that nothing can be ruled in or out at present. Apparently informed people are making claims that on examination that are based on circular reasoning, questionable presuppositions and selective accounts of the science.
My favourite scifi author Vernor Vinge wrote in his The Peace Wars series (published in the 80's) of how biologists would create diseases that devastated humanity, but no-one could ever get to the truth and no-one was ever held accountable. As a result in his somewhat dystopian future world, the bio-scientists had been deemed illegal, highly despised and driven deeply underground. Because there was no effective oversight mechanism, no-one trusted them, and the potential good they could also do was lost to humanity.
We are probably not quite there yet, but the path we are on could easily have this as a destination.
Yeah, but the problem is that evolutionary biowar pattern simply isn't that useful for slow plague spread – which is what this one does. That is why virtually all of the material published on biowar weapons was orientated towards contact, short incubation, and kill rather than population spread. Natural evolution strongly tends towards getting the host to breed viruses without killing the host. Biowar patterns are more like SARS or Ebola or dispersed spread anthrax than what covid-19 is.
So far no-one has managed to point to anything that indicates that this is engineered weapon. And the way that it operates indicates that it has had a significant evolution in bats, and quite a lot of time adapting to how to infect humans without killing too many of them.
Which the pattern you've pointed to doesn't allow without a butt load of deaths.
I suspect your aversion to the PRC is overcoming your common sense.
Don't think he's pointing to a deliberate release. Accidental, I reckon. The Hopkins covid tracker graph shows a classic linear increase. Not exponential. If it were malignant population elimination, you'd see exponential.
Also the daily rate stabilised weeks ago – we can see that by selecting the daily tab on that graph. So as contagions go, this looks rather moderate…
evolutionary biowar pattern simply isn't that useful for slow plague spread – which is what this one does.
Nowhere have I described this as a 'biowar' virus. It clearly doesn't fit the pattern of a conventional military tool. But that doesn't rule out other possible reasons why this virus could have been evolved within a lab setting.
For a start WIV is tightly linked to the PLA and in that context there is every reason to expect at least some research programs to be secret and unpublished. Assuming that every virus they had worked on was actually published is naive in the extreme.
Indeed the CCP has now been forced to admit they ordered the destruction of samples and work done at WIV early in January, further muddying the evidential trail.
And since late January all Chinese research must be passed through political control before being released.
Assuming you know anything accurate and sufficient to draw firm conclusions in this environment is optimistic at best.
So far no-one has managed to point to anything that indicates that this is engineered weapon.
The term 'weapon' implies malicious intent, but until we understand exactly how this virus arose we cannot determine intent. And I've been very careful not to go to that conclusion. That's twice in one comment you've pulled that straw man on me.
What I believe is necessary here is that until we have an independent, trusted and impartial investigation … free to the extent possible of either US or CCP political interference … then we will not get to the truth.
I suspect your aversion to the PRC is overcoming your common sense.
And content not with two strawmen, you pull a third. At no point have I attacked or denigrated in any fashion the people of China. As I've made it clear many times, I have close Chinese family and social connections. You may want to ask our old friend CV exactly which regular here at TS was the most generally supportive of him for many years. Bill's charges of 'idiot xenophobia' is wrong on the facts, intellectually lazy and downright irksome.
On the other hand the CCP is a different creature altogether … yes my dislike of them is real and well founded. Then again I'm not the only one to have concluded … before COVID … that the current Chinese government under Xi Xinping’s rule are a pack of genocidal, power-mad, information-suppressing, exploitative, ultra-nationalists.
Trump was of course for some months very supportive of the CCP effort in containing CV19; but now of course it turns out all of this was bullshit and it was already loose on the world, and Trump is now expressing considerable disappointment in what has happened … everyone is now idiotically acting as if the CCP is somehow lily-white and the innocent party.
Trump plastering his sticky mitts over this issue, for his own political purposes, makes him no-one's hero. Nothing he has to say now in May, has any relevance to what we need to know about what may have been happening at WIV last year. This event has already caused immense grief and hardship in just a few short months, and is on track to cause a great deal more.
Why is everyone so resistant to the idea that a full investigation, and if warranted a proper accountability, needs to happen? Hell if this was a coal mine explosion there would be no problem.
"that the current Chinese government under Xi Xinping’s rule are a pack of genocidal, power-mad, information-suppressing, exploitative, ultra-nationalists."
Hear hear!
I have Uyghur friends. Ask them what they think of the CCP.
That's interesting, Tony. Do they live here (immigrants)? Or have you travelled through their region?
I presume they see their ethnicity as being a target due to muslim religion but it would be interesting to know if the regime's policy is viewed as racist too (on a similar basis to their oppression of Tibetans, I mean).
I taught for a bit over 3 years in Urumqi, and travelled fairly widely in the region and the 'stans.'
There are few Uyghurs living in NZ and most are pretty guarded in their public criticism of the regime, having relatives back in Xinjiang. Their most frequent beef is about the oppression of their religion, though they have no general love for the Han.
Nowhere have I described this as a 'biowar' virus.
This may be correct, strictly speaking, but you did include it in your quote @ 1.3.2 and if you were simply trying to outline how forced evolution can be done in an appropriate lab and the corresponding workflow then you could have stopped the quote there and then. You didn’t and this is slightly confusing. See what I’m saying?
As long as political games are played over and on top of this, the chances of getting to bottom of it are nil. This was the point I tried to make with Dennis but he didn’t get it. Welcome next pandemic?
Yes I can see the possible confusion arising from my quotation, but the full article makes it clearer. The point is that the 'gain of function' procedures for developing vaccines are for all practical purposes indistinguishable from developing a biowar virus. You really cannot conclusively determine intent just by looking at the genetic sequence (unless the developer was especially clumsy) of the resulting virus. Which is why I've been careful all along to avoid ascribing intent behind SAR-COV-2.
As you say only an apolitical investigation will suffice to uncover the truth. Interestingly Xi Xingping last night seems to have agreed to such a thing, but then immediately undermined his bona fides by slapping an 80% tariff on Australian barley … and then has the bare faced gall to pretend it has nothing to do with Australia being the nation that lead the call for the investigation.
The CoV closest to SARS-CoV-2 is RaTG13 and even that one is a bit of a mystery, which makes SARS-CoV-2 and even bigger mystery as to where it came from, when, and where it first jumped to human if that is what actually happened. Without finding the missing link(s), we will never know. This could leave us less or under-prepared for the next pandemic, which is such a compelling argument, in my opinion, that one wonders why anybody would resist accepting it …
Sometime around 2001 I was working on a site on my own, and at dinner that night I was sat at the same table with another guy also on his own. He was a Scottish academic turned commercial, and his background was a rather unusual mix (for then) of computer science and genetics.
The one thing I clearly recall from the conversation that night was his description of how the work the team he was leading was going to enable genetic sequencing of full genomes within days or even hours. Keep in mind that the first full human genome project had only just been done, and had taken a huge collaborative effort to achieve. I was pretty impressed, only a few times in life do you get the chance to meet people you know will change our world.
Now less than 20 years later all of his predictions are come true, and we take them for granted. Our progress in this genetic biotech area is only just beginning; comparable to where the quantum mechanics era was in say the 1930's.
You are right, this will not be the last event of this kind to challenge us. Disease is our ancient enemy, it has deep roots in our behaviours and beliefs, and in many ways I suspect this new found power will prove more troublesome to our collective sanity than any before it.
We can only speculate why you started your framing comment with Trump.
The original but not yet peer-reviewed paper is your best source of scientific information without the distracting framing and other unhelpful baggage.
The paper is actually remarkably easy (!) to read, almost as if it was written with one eye on an audience of laypeople. I recommend it.
If you do read it, you’ll note the carefully worded conclusions and the many still-unanswered questions.
Obviously, the market was a factor in spreading the disease, through the food sold there but more likely predominantly through the people mingling there.
The media does have a habit of interpreting science, true. I guess I'm pragmatic in seeing political players using those media interpretations rather than actual scientific opinions (because they believe the public are influenced by the former way more than the latter).
Political commentary inevitably flows from framing used by politicians and media, in consequence of that influence on the balance of public opinion. So I'm no different from any other commentator in that respect.
I looked at the abstract & conclusion of the paper itself via your link, thanks, but see no reason for further comment on it at this stage.
You fell in the classic trap of letting the framing and interpretations by and from others influence your thinking and judgement about something that is primarily a scientific quest. Arguably, most commenters go ‘but Trump’, ‘but Putin’, ‘but her e-mails’, ‘but the CCP’, et cetera, rather than reading a scientific paper. If the horse doesn’t want to be led then it is likely a donkey, or an old goat … 😉
"A lot of well-meaning Australians get frustrated when any attempt to start a conversation about migration immediately attracts accusations of racism. This is particularly so for many Greens, whose white fragility prevents them from recognising how sustainability arguments for limiting immigration can be inherently racist."
"The hard truth is that in settler-colonial countries like Australia, you simply can’t talk sensibly about migration without talking about racism. The two topics are inextricably linked, and leaving race out of the conversation – like you’re some kind of ‘objective’ scientist neutrally discussing populations and carrying capacities without acknowledging past and ongoing systemic racism – just tacitly reinforces racist norms."
Interesting because it shows how willing the left are to divide on an esoteric basis. No need for the controllers to use `divide & rule' – the proles do it to themselves. Politically-correct posturing normally seems irrelevant – but the writer appears to be conscience-driven, so I'm responding to the sincerity.
I would say it's better to reference racism when talking about immigration and green issues because we have a culture of racism in NZ against certain ethnicities who make up a large part of our new migrants. Listening to the voices of those people helps us, it's not a hindrance.
Otoh, many on the left tend to reject any discussion about population and ecology/climate as classist, and any discussion of immigration and ecology/climate as racist, so the development of ideas in this area looks stalled to me.
Both sides taking a position of outright rejection of the other leaves us in a false binary, and these don't help.
Discussion of population is usually shut down as Malthusian anti-human oppression, or racist against Africans, who are on an unsustainable growth trajectory. There is a crazy dude on Twitter who advocates for a global one-child policy and he's got a point. At this point, human population growth means ecosystem destruction, and eventual catastrophe if we don't stop.
At this point, human population growth means ecosystem destruction, and eventual catastrophe if we don't stop.
In all the developed nations birth rates are now either below or close to replacement. In a number of European nations total population is already declining. Global growth rate is declining.
Only in a relative handful of very poor and/or dysfunctional nations do we still see uncontrolled birth rates.
NZ and Australia still growing at an alarming rate, addicted to that GDP juice, making things shittier all round for a lot of people, who are usually ignored or told to shut up, because the wealthy transnational prof classes are making bank and they consider themselves world citizens above the hoi polloi
NZ and Australia still growing at an alarming rate
Both countries have typically low birth rates similar to most other developed nations. Being well run countries they both remain attractive immigration destinations which account for the bulk of their population growth.
Auckland is about to run out of water. Our infrastructure is about 30 years behind population growth (because central govt didn't want to control it). Houses are completely unaffordable for essential workers like cops, teachers and nurses. This is not sustainable
As you can see there is no shortage of water. It is a constraint on treatment and pumping capacity that is the problem. The system was not designed to cope with such a dry year, but fixing that has nothing to do with population, and everything to do with some capital and engineering.
Don't misread me here; I'm no more a fan of an overcrowded NZ than you are. I grew up in an era when it was possible to go to a valley in the South Island and tramp in the area for weeks and have the entire place to yourself. Part of me is deeply attached to that.
NZ and Australia have a specific problem in that we are successful and well run nations that many people like to visit and migrate to. Managing that is a privilege of a problem really.
@Roblogic, yep, as soon as you start with the physical world (the environment) the whole thing looks completely different.
We're also exporting the remaining bank of our soil minerals etc via milk powder. And building housing on some of our best food growing land, because we're so fucking stupid that we think food is something that we can always buy (and so stupid to think that the housing crisis can be solved by having neoliberal developers build lots of houses)
I would phrase it more like "who are joining the 'first' world on an unsustainable growth trajectory'.
One child policy as a starting point is likely to cause problems, because in order for it to work in sustainability terms in a meaningful timeframe you'd have to enforce it, and that's going to play into the rising political authoritarianism. I also think that women would be disproportionately negatively affected. And you need lots of other legislation in place to prevent things like prioritising male foetuses.
My preference is to centre the discussion on ecology, and what developed countries should do. We cannot expect poor nations to not aspire to our standard of living. So if NZ were to look at how we could actually be sustainable, and then what population we could sustain within that, we can then look at our standard of living/consumption and where to position it. We can also do that in the context of our refugee policy, and our immigration settings (maybe we have less babies and allow more refugees on humanitarian grounds).
The big thing there that isn't being done is the auditing of what regenerative economy would look like in NZ. We do however know that we are well into overshoot, and are basically strip mining other ecologies and cultures to support our lifestyles. Lefties sure don't want to talk about that, not the liberals nor the class analysis crowd. For some reason that I don't understand, simple, applied physics goes out the window and people seem to think there are unlimited resources and space. Or they have this vague idea that there is still plenty available despite all the research show there isn't. I guess this is a very strong socialisation of the western mind.
Trump vs deep state, ongoing saga: ""There's a bureaucracy out there. And there's a lot of people in that bureaucracy who think that they got elected president, not Donald J. Trump," Navarro said… we've had tremendous problems with, you know, some people call it the 'deep state.' I think that's apt."" https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/china-responsible-us-economy-trump-economic-adviser/story?id=70723322
That's Trump's director of the Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy, speaking today. So the rebel thesis remains valid.
Nope, them are in Trump's cabinet. He described people in the bureaucracy as if they were actual bureaucrats, note. I know, you were just being disingenius…
He may think he was elected president Den, and so can spout any old shit that takes his fancy. He may be enraged that the virus wasn't let loose to lay waste his master's foes.
Good interview here on the recent final unravelling of Russiagate, of course the hard core conspiracy theorists out there will keep spinning their, well…conspiracy theories, but to all other thinking and sane citizens, Russiagate can now be consigned to history as one of the most odious large scale public manipulations in recent history, certainly rivaling in scale and scope anything that China has managed to pull off on it's own highly repressed citizens….just shows what can be achieved when you have a willing and compliant press acting on your behalf.
I think even Chomsky couldn't have envisioned the incredible scale along with such unquestioning and obedient buy in from the MSM and liberal intellectuals.
Just a headline I saw on Stuff, about new beneficiary parents saying they will be sending their kids to school hungry coz the benefit ain't enough, well I say "then you shouldn't have had kids then huh?" (sarc) … I would like to think people get a bit more empathic towards beneficiaries after this, how easy it is to lose your job, how punitive it is, how low the payments are.
I remember years ago they made it you couldn't go on benefit if you lived in places like Golden Bay, did they ever change that? Would like to see rural people, small town people able to get the benefit (just after seeing that Redneck post made me think wonder if they still can't get their benefits).
Not sure if they ever changed it but it was a group of very small places IIRC Blackball was also one where there were zero jobs and zero likely hood of jobs and there was no zeal to fund "lifestylers" to depart the job market forever. On the other hand the consumption footprint would also have been very low.
"I would like to think people get a bit more empathic towards beneficiaries after this, how easy it is to lose your job, how punitive it is, how low the payments are.
Until they find employment again and move back up the food chain and all will be forgotten. Hell, some of them will no doubt keep on voting National.
Anyone who outright rejects a UBI needs to sit in a room with the benefit calculation formulas and process entitlements for five beneficiaries from different situations. Best conversion tool for UBI support ever.
(I still favour a welfare/UBI hybrid that mends WINZ, including the complexity of rate calculation).
I still favour a welfare/UBI hybrid that mends WINZ.
And without any quibble on that general approach … which I broadly agree with … merely doing the dollar value comparison omits the big social value contribution that a UBI brings. All the research so far clearly shows the real positives come from an increased sense of personal worth and agency. From no longer being stigmatised (even when it's self imposed) or looked down on.
Everyone who has had to deal with WINZ long-term tends to reach for the phrase 'soul-destroying'. Well what is the worth of people with 'un-destroyed souls'? Quite a lot I'd imagine.
Yeah. Because it would have gone down a treat had they refused permission for the German, French, US, Canadian, British, Australian and other government's repatriation flights from Wuhan as the province went into lock-down…
I'm surprised they missed that opportunity to become the darlings of western propaganda. /sarc
When you are living with a senior Chinese academic (I can't be more specific for safety reasons) who is telling you first hand about the totalitarian power he is experiencing in his own life … you'd not be quite so quick to blurt out 'bollocks'.
Yeah nah…China, Russia, USA, UK etc etc there are no bloody saints in that lot but you (among many others) want to paint the Chinese government as the black hats..there are no white hats(in reality IMO) if it wasn't for their totalitarian inclinations Wuhan would still be a total clusterfuck rather than a success story.
China is good for entertainment. Not China itself but the entertainment provided by the multi-faceted ever-changing bizarre notions in New Zealanders.
We want to deal with China big time and to sell our goods to them but we don't want to deal with China. We want China to invest in New Zealand but we don't want them coming in here taking us over. We want New Zealand to take a strong position on China's human rights record but we don't want to say anything to upset them. We want to be independent and staunch and principled and stand for what's right but we should be totally deferential and not say anything to piss the Chinese off.
Today I see banner headlines on the Herald site that Matthew Hooton thinks Winston Peters should be sacked over 'Chinese controversy.' I think Peters should immediately take Hooton onto his staff. Hooton could sit in Peters' pocket and tell him what to do and travel all over the world advising on what's right for New Zealand.
Peters could take him out on all appropriate occasions to lick boots or to give Peters a clip around the ear if he dares say anything more than, "Yes Sir (or Ma'am.)
I wondered if it was time to reconsider land aggregation and break down some of these big farming operations into family sized units.
As to not being able to get staff – are they their own worse enemy- and are providing conditions so poor that the lure of residency is the only way they can get staff? This looks like a 10 hour day for how many days of the week? Time for overtime and penal rates again? How many of these jobs mean the worker is also dependent on other taxpayer supports like working for family's while the owners pocket the dough
"You might get up a bit earlier at around 5am, but on the other hand my staff go home for an hour at breakfast, an hour at lunch and they're home by 5pm.
Yeh be good to hear from the corporate farming sector about how they intend to correct these wider systemic flaws.
But no particular challenge from the news media to the farming lobby in that particular report – just the farming sob story largely verbatim. And the media wonder why they get poor “pass marks”
Farmers have long been given the right to set wage rates at a level that guarantees their profitability. If workers are not available at these rates, they want governments to admit foreign 'gastarbeiter' who will work at these rates. i.e. as capitalists, they seem to have an addiction to violating their own ideological commitment to free markets by enthusiastically intervening in the operation of the labour market. However, this only looks like a violation if you make the mistake of seeing capitalism and markets as the same thing. They aren't. As a locus of exchange, markets long pre-date capitalism – which is more about wealth extraction through ownership of all the 'plumbing' that facilitates production, exchange etc.
COVID potentially disrupts this by turning off the gastarbeiter tap. However in this environment no government is going to be seen jeopardising agriculture, food production, exporting, job creation and economic growth generally. Some other temporary solution will be found – probably via government subsidy to farmers to top up wages.
Yeah I figured Labour wouldn't do anything about farm wages. As far as I can see this problem has got steadily worse over the years since we repealed the land aggregation & settlement act 1920. Most of the family farms still seem to rely on limited labour it's this factory farming crowd doing it. Be interested to know how many of these have come in with an OIO exemption because they were going to create well paying jobs you know! Maybe some of these farms need to invest in robiotic milking so that they can provide well paying jobs.
Some I know was worked as a milker for a variety of farm owners, and they all were ratbags. For one, the house he got was literally full of mould. It was even growing the carpet. The next one, he could hardly do any thing right for him, always carrying on about how useless he was (though the house was a bit better). The next one let him go before the 90-day trial was up.
Not all farmers are like that, I will admit, but workers should really do a little due diligence before taking up farming.
TV3 (Newshub) has a poll out at 6 pm. They're already talking it up bigly but that's happened before, something "sensational" turns out to be a couple of percentage points.
A series of surveys during lockdown showed 80+% support for what the gov't has done. They weren't TV polls, so were largely overlooked. But they were consistent.
Of course National were not going to be in the lead, that would be pessimism way beyond reason.
Special post at 4:07pm so outside his regular posting slots. He highlights the bump in positive polling for leaders during a crisis, whether they have done a good job or not.
This preempts the Newshub poll tonight either to:
a) attempt to dampen any positive polling for Ardern and the government parties by saying all leaders get a bump or,
b) to set the scene for subsequent crowing if Ardern and the government parties don't poll better than other leaders who have mismanaged Covid-19 response resulting in horrific loss of life.
Farrar has been careful to put the numbers of recent poll bumps for Trump, Boris and Morrison more than once, and even Andrew Cuomo. If JA doesn't reach these numbers or only achieves modestly well against them he will go to town.
The post is so specific one wonders if he has been leaked the poll (highly likely given it is by Mediaworks), and is running his attack lines before it comes out. Incredibly dishonest if that is the case and he hasn't disclosed it.
He is always "leaked" the poll. The reason we see party leaders on the news is that they have given those interviews earlier in the day. Naturally the leaders talk to their advisers.
Nothing to do with Mediaworks, it happens every time there's a poll.
The above should have turned up in the conspiracy thread.
But seriously, evidence that bat viruses are anywhere, just look at the case of Steve Gurney the great Coast-to Coast athlete. On an event in SE Asia , Borneo I think) part of the run went through a cave filled with bats and Steve came very close to dying, was in a coma for quite a time and took a few years to recover. It was ascertained that his problem was contacted from a bat virus or suchlike.,
I would have thought our useless parroting media may have tried to get his view on our current situation.
Great in one sense (i.e. a hope for a more economically equitable future), but the Left is just as capable of being arseholes as the Right. So it's not particularly awesome for democracy.
Police are making threatening posts about "hate crimes", a concept which has no legal basis in NZ. Churches still can't hold Sunday services, but shopping malls and schools are a free-for-all.
Nobody with an ounce of sense thinks Labour will get 56% on election day. I wouldn't have been surprised if they were 60+ in this poll, and yet I won't be surprised if they need a support party to govern after the election. Let's hope it's the Greens.
Again, National never had the numbers in Parliament to govern alone. But in polls between elections, they had it dozens of times.
Green support still holding up, as previously discussed. Labour's numbers aren't unprecedented. National hit 60 under Key – but crucially, they got there by cannibalising.
Staying above 5% is a remarkable result for a near invisible party in a crisis, with their supporters making a clear Ardern/Labour distinction. Good on them.
If there's any enterprising medicinal cannabis operation who wants to go all in for expansion, here's the country's very last tobacco factory up for sale in Petone:
A shocking report suggesting that the coronavirus was “release[d from] the Wuhan Institute of Virology” in China is now circulating in U.S. military and intelligence circles and on Capitol Hill. But there’s a critical flaw in the report, a Daily Beast analysis reveals: Some of its most seemingly persuasive evidence is false—provably false.
I'm reminded of the extremely amateurish attempt by Trump to alter a weather map to make it look like a cat. 5 cyclone was going to hit Alabama because he had previously claimed Alabama was going to be hit (can't read a weather map) and couldn't bear to be proved wrong.
This blog is beautiful foot-notery. Why Parliament is often distressing points of order. Semantics matter.
In my lifelong arguments with my brothers I expect in later years we put aside getting it over one another and self-govern enough to go to the essential. What matters most. Lest ye be captured in pig muck up to your neck.
Climate change and the neediest in my book matter most.
Climate change and the neediest in my book matter most.
Climate Change does not vote and the neediest tend to stay at home and not vote either.
One option is to vote for avoiding CC disaster and economic and social upheaval and against inequality and social injustice, for example.
Another option is to vote for growth, gains, increases in GDP and wages, possible Tax cuts, open borders with Free Trade and mass tourism, for example.
Which one do you think is the more likely vote winner?
I ran across a recent essay from The Brothers Krynn, which attempts to map common horror monsters onto the Seven Deadly Sins: https://canadianculturecorner.substack.com/p/horror-monsters-and-vice My interest, however, is not in the meat of the piece, but rather the opening paragraph: It is an interesting fact that in recent decades, Vampires have ...
Buzz from the Beehive Transport Minister Simeon Brown dutifully issued advice to all road users to keep safe on our roads during the Easter weekend. He encouraged them to stay safe, plan their journeys ahead of time, and be patient with other drivers while travelling around this Easter long weekend. ...
Oliver Hartwich writes – New Zealanders recently learned about a new feature film. It will be about former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern – and taxpayers will subsidise it to the tune of NZ$800,000. Ardern had nothing personally to do with either the film or the subsidy. But her government’s ...
TL;DR: Here’s the top six news items of note in climate news for Aotearoa-NZ this week, and a discussion above that was recorded yesterday afternoon above between and The Kākā’s climate correspondent : An independent review panel into the emergency response to Cyclone Gabrielle in Hawkes Bayconcluded “that ...
There are now only a few days left to give feedback on the Draft Government Policy Statement (GPS) on Land Transport 2024-34 (see our earlier post this week on GPS submission guides). As we’ve reported, the GPS is a disaster for Local Government, so we were particularly interested to hear ...
Willis has pledged to go ahead with the debt-funded tax cuts, despite growing opposition from her own supporters worried about appearing fiscally irresponsible. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for ...
Open access notables A survey of interventions to actively conserve the frozen North, van Wijngaarden et al., Climatic Change:The frozen elements of the high North are thawing as the region warms much faster than the global mean. The dangers of sea level rise due to melting glacier ice, increased ...
Bryce Edwards writes – New Zealand’s biggest-ever political donations scandal is finally at an end. But what is the conclusion? No one can really be sure. The Court of Appeal released its judgement on Tuesday about the Serious Fraud Office case against the NZ First Foundation. On ...
In 2015, then-Prime Minister John Key announced plans for a huge ocean sanctuary around the Kermadec Islands, banning fishing and mining from 15% of Aotearoa's EEZ. It was bold, it was ambitious, and it suggested that National might actually care about the environment. Except they fucked it up: Key failed ...
1. Who has just been given the accolade New Zealander of the Year?a. The Kokakob. The Cook Strait Ferryc. Fair God. Dr Jim Salinger 2. Which of these is an affront to decent society?a. Dame Edna Everageb. Mrs Doubtfire c. Dr. Frank-N-Furterd. Brian 3. Who is Penny Simmonds?a. The aspiring actress in Big ...
New Zealand’s biggest-ever political donations scandal is finally at an end. But what is the conclusion? No one can really be sure.The Court of Appeal released its judgement on Tuesday about the Serious Fraud Office case against the NZ First Foundation. On the face of it, the court found ...
Buzz from the Beehive Waves of rain are set to lash much of the North Island during Easter Weekend as a low-pressure system forms east of New Zealand, according to a weather forecast published in the past day or so. Niwa was warning of a “moisture-laden” long weekend, with rain expected ...
Look around us…Nicola Willis’ promises of balancing the books, of cutting spending without reducing services, and of delivering game changing tax cuts are disappearing before her eyes.Everyday we see stories of violent crime ending in horrific injuries, or worse. The cost of living worsens, whereas the PM claimed renters would ...
TL;DR: My top six news of note on the morning of Thursday, March 28 include:The Government will have to borrow between $10 billion to $15 billion more than previously expected in order to make up for a slowing economy and to pay for $14.9 billion of tax cuts, according to ...
This story by Naveena Sadasivam and Kate Yoder was originally published by Grist and is part of Covering Climate Now, a global journalism collaboration strengthening coverage of the climate story. The long-awaited jobs board for the American Climate Corps, promised early in the Biden administration, will open next month, according to details shared exclusively ...
Should landlords be able to deduct the interest on the loans they take out to bankroll their property speculation? The US Senate Budget Committee and Bloomberg News don’t think this is a good idea, for reasons set out below. Regardless, our coalition government has been burning through a ton of ...
Treasury’s first report on the economy since the change of government presents a damning indictment of Labour’s economic management. The problem for National is that it is so damning that logically, coupled with a rapidly slowing economy, Finance Minister Nicola Willis should respond to it by postponing or even cancelling ...
Budget tensions are becoming evident within the Coalition Government. Winston Peters made numerous political points in his speech to the NZF annual conference. But the attack on his own government’s fiscal policies raised issues of substance. ‘Today in the Sunday Star Times, journalist and former advisor to the Labour ...
Buzz from the Beehive The media – sure enough – have been binging on Finance Minister Nicola Willis’ release of the Budget Policy Statement and a statement headed Government announces Budget priorities This assures us – or rather, this parrots the Luxon team mantra – that the Budget “will deliver ...
The Ides of March brought me COVID followed by a bereavement. No wonder they tell you to be careful of them.I’m home now and have resumed the interrupted recuperation. Very much looking forward to getting back to regular things. Meanwhile, some thoughts…OneThis new Prime Minister guy just keeps getting more dire. ...
News that the Chinese ATP 40 cyber-hacking unit penetrated parliamentary internet networks in 2021 has renewed concerns about the PRC’s malign intentions in Aotearoa. But is the hack that significant given the length of time that has passed since its … Continue reading → ...
When Parliament passed the Intelligence and security Act in 2017, they assured us all that it was full of safeguards. Any intrusive surveillance of New Zealanders would be subject to a "triple lock", requiring the approval of the Minister and (supposedly independent) Commissioner of Intelligence Warrants, as well as post-facto ...
Eric Crampton writes – Richard Harman’s Politik newsletter provides a bit of the context that ought to have been showing up in other media reports on potential reductions in public service staffing. Media has been reporting on staffing cuts on the order of about 7%. Is that ...
Mike Grimshaw writes – It’s becoming increasingly apparent that many perceive free speech to have become the preserve of the politically right wing, the religiously conservative, the libertarian fringe, the anti-trans, the anti-Māori and…. well, just fill in with whatever groups or individuals you don’t like and don’t ...
Don Brash writes – As everybody who is not blind and deaf is aware, there is a huge political preoccupation with climate change at the moment, a widespread (though by no means unanimous) belief that global temperatures are rising mainly as a result of the greenhouse gases created ...
TL;DR: My six things to note in Aotearoa’s political economy on Wednesday, March 27 include:Chris Bishop laid out his vision for filling Aotearoa-NZ’s $100 billion infrastructure deficit in a speech yesterday, emphasising user pays and private funding, but failed to say how to achieve bipartisanship on population, public borrowing and ...
Bryce Edwards writes – Former Finance Minister Grant Robertson and former Prime Minister Chris Hipkins have been conveying how unhappy they are with the tax system. Last week in his valedictory speech, Robertson called for the introduction of a wealth or capital gains tax. And this week Hipkins ...
On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
Buzz from the Beehive China has loomed large in Beehive considerations over the past 24 hours, largely because of that country’s mischief-making in the cyber espionage department. Two media statements emerged on that subject hard on the heels of the PM baulking at questions put to him on RNZ’s Morning ...
Chris Trotter writes – WHY IS THE NATIONAL PARTY doing so much for landlords, property developers, trucking, and construction companies, and so little for everybody who isn’t already pretty well-off? It’s as if protecting landlords’ investments and building apartments and roads now constitute the whole of National’s ...
Bryce Edwards writes – When she was campaigning to be Minister of Finance last year, Nicola Willis pledged that she would resign from the job if she failed to deliver tax cuts in her first Budget. Now, it’s that pledge, along with Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s ...
Robert MacCulloch writes – The Reserve Bank has doubled staff numbers in five years to 510, with personnel costs rising to $80 million in 2023 from $32 million in 2018 – up by a whopping 150%. I guess when you print $50 billion and flood markets with liquidity, ...
The furore. In case you didn’t notice there was a controversy in the weekend involving dolphins in a little town off the South Island. Don’t panic, they haven’t declared independence and resumed whaling, this was simply a sailing event.The problem began when racing was cancelled on the opening day of ...
For 20 years or more, the case for a meaningful capital tax gains has been mulled over and analysed to death, including by the tax working group chaired by Sir Michael Cullen. More than once, the International Monetary Fund has said a CGT would be a good idea for New ...
TL;DR: My top 10 news and analysis links this morning include:Today’s must-read: The Public Health Communications Centre (PHCC) call for urgent preventive action and a risk assessment survey of long covid in this briefing noteLocal scoop: NZ road deaths surpass OECD rates, so why is the govt reversing safety plans? ...
This story was originally published by Grist and is part of Covering Climate Now, a global journalism collaboration strengthening coverage of the climate story. This story is part of a collaboration with Grist and WABE to demystify the Georgia Public Service Commission, the small but powerful state-elected board that makes critical decisions about everything from raising ...
This is a guest post from Robert McLachlan Global warming is accelerating; 2023 was off the charts. We need to stop burning fossil fuels. In New Zealand, transport accounts for half of all fossil fuels burnt. In the Emissions Reduction Plan, transport emissions fall 41% by 2035. As the ...
Labour productivity has been receding rapidly over the past two years, reversing a post-lockdown rise. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: My six things to note in Aotearoa’s political economy as at 6:26am on Tuesday, March 26 include:Workers have been treading water in output per hour worked for 12 years, ...
TL;DR: The key events to watch in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy in the week to April 2 include:Today, Parliament resumes sitting at 2pm for the second week of a two-week session. Officials for SIS and GCSB report their annual reviews in public to the Intelligence and Security Select Committee from 5.10pm.Tomorrow, ...
Faced with a barrage of criticism over the promised tax cuts from usually supportive commentators, Finance Minister Nicola Willis yesterday reaffirmed her intention to include them in this year’s Budget. The Government is up against it over the cuts just about every way it turns. Commentators like Fran O’Sullivan, Matthew ...
Here’s my pick of today’s substack posts as of 6:26pm on Monday, March 25: writes via his substack that Market-rate housing will make your city cheaper writes via his substack about the problems talking to double-cab ute (truck) drivers about their vehicles. today about moments of radicalisation in ...
Buzz from the Beehive Just before Christmas, Finance Minister Nicola Willis delivered something that was pitched as a mini-budget and brayed about the decisive action being taken to repair the Government books and support income tax relief in Budget 2024. In a statement headed Fiscal repair job underway. she introduced ...
My sister Belinda asked Dad yesterday what one word would describe Mum best. He said: vivacious.If you only knew her from the photos on the slideshow we've made for today,you might wonder about that, because the camera tended to lie with Mum.If ever she saw a camera pointed at her, she ...
There are two major public consultations closing in the next week, Auckland Council’s Long Term Plan (LTP), and the draft Government Policy Statement on Land Transport (GPS). Closing dates and times: LTP closes Thursday 28 February, at 11.59pm – a minute to midnight! GPS closes Tuesday 2 April, at 12pm noon – note that’s ...
From Kiwiblog’s David Farrar – Bryce Wilkinson writes: Senior Fellow Bryce Wilkinson’s analysis reveals that since March 2009, New Zealand has spent $158 billion more overseas than it has earned, but its NIIP has only fallen by $32 billion.Statistics New Zealand shows that receipts from overseas reinsurers have ...
Is she hinting that the Coalition Government will have to back down on key promises it made in Opposition? Brian Easton writes – The Minister of Finance, Nicola Willis, is telling an evolving story about her fiscal challenges. In Opposition she was confident that she could ...
Dear Nicola Willis,Right now you’ve probably got lots of competing demands coming at you. Ministers who’ve inherited quite a mess, or so you’ve told us, looking for money in the budget to improve things. I imagine that’s why they came to parliament - to make things better.You’ll have to make ...
The Local Government, Transport and Auckland Minister hasthreatened councils with intervention if they don’t merge water assets to take them off balance sheet, just as the now-repealed Three Waters plan directed. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: My six things of note this morning for Monday, March 25 include:Simeon ...
A listing of 36 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, March 17, 2024 thru Sat, March 23, 2024. Story of the week Thanks to John Mason having the stamina to sit down to watch "Climate - the Movie" ...
This morning the Q&A programme had Simeon Brown on to talk about National’s replacement for Three Waters. In case anyone’s forgotten the three are - drinking water, waste water, and sewerage. It’s quite important not to get them mixed up. In much the same way that you wouldn’t want to ...
Today’s newsletter comes with a mini-podcast conversation between me and my buddy Liv Tennet, talking about her time as a child actor in Lord of the Rings. It’s a conversation with a lot of giggles as she talks about falling off a horse, and becoming a meme. Read ...
The Desmog Climate Disinformation Database documents, "individuals and organisations that have helped to delay and distract the public and our elected leaders from taking needed action to reduce greenhouse gas pollution and fight global warming." It's a who's who of the organised climate change denial movement, in other words. In ...
Bob Edlin writes – A High Court judge has decided miscreants who have mana – or who claim to have mana – should be treated differently from miscreants who have none. It’s a ruling that suggests indigenous law-breakers have a better chance of securing a discharge without conviction ...
Welcome to the first, and possibly last, edition of Brickbats, Bouquets and Bull’s Wool. In which I’ll take a look at the events of the last week or so, and rate them.In such ratings the numbers usually have more to do with the opinions of the reviewer, than the actual ...
Roger Partridge writes – My earlier column this month, New Zealand’s highest court could be facing a turning point, prompted a flood of feedback from business readers and lawyers alike. A common query was what Parliament can do to restrain an overreaching judiciary. This week I discuss two steps Parliament ...
TL;DR: In today’s ‘six-stack’ of substacks at 6.16pm on Friday, March 22: writes about New Zealand's Building Boom—And What the World Must Learn From It over at his substack. challenges the Auckland Council’s use of a 3.8 degrees of warming forecast to oppose a wave-park and data centre project ...
Is she hinting that the Coalition Government will have to back down on key promises it made in Opposition?The Minister of Finance, Nicola Willis, is telling an evolving story about her fiscal challenges. In Opposition she was confident that she could deliver her promised income tax cuts. Appointed minister, she ...
Buzz from the Beehive Ministers of the Crown have drawn attention to one sector of the science sector which is unlikely to be subjected to heavy spending cuts, a state-funded broadcaster which is doing nicely, thank you, and a sporting event that had $5.4 million from the public purse puffed ...
Abbott’s Freestyle Libre sensors allow continuous glucose monitoring (CGM). The sensor is applied to the back of the patient’s arm, with a thin filament under the skin measuring glucose levels constantly. But it costs around $100 per sensor and must be replaced once every 14 days. Photo by BSIP/Universal Images ...
The Inspector General of Intelligence and Security (IGIS) recently released a report in which he exposes the existence of a foreign intelligence partner-controlled technological “capability” inside the headquarters of the GCSB, NZ’s 5 Eyes-affiliated signals intelligence collection and analysis agency. … Continue reading → ...
Peter Dunne writes – Nearly three decades after the introduction of MMP and multiparty governments there should be a greater level of understanding about their finer points than often appears to be the case. The reaction to the despicable outburst from the Deputy Prime Minister at the weekend highlights ...
The sweet kisses from fruit of summerHave slowly been turning dullerYou say, "those times"And "remember the daysWhen we went outside and there still was the shade?"Taking no reason into play…Autumn. Clear, blue days shortening to longer nights, growing colder. Aotearoa.That’s us. The temperature dropping, the looming car crash - so ...
Bryce Edwards writes – “It is often said that behind every great man is a great woman”. This is the pitch by the National Party Botany electorate branch to attend their “Ladies Afternoon Tea with Amanda Luxon”. For $110 including GST, you can turn up on Saturday 20 April ...
David Farrar writes – The Electoral Commission has published the expense returns for political parties for the 2023 election. I’ve put them in a table with how many votes a party got so we can see the spend per vote. National only spent $3.34 for every vote they got, almost ...
Winston Peters’ headline-making actions over the past week may have been a show of political power intended to strengthen his hand in Budget negotiations. It was no accident that his State of the Nation speech was as it was. He made it as New Zealand First Leader, not as Deputy ...
Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:Former Labour Finance Minister Grant Robertson bowed out of politics this week, giving a series of exit ...
Graham Adams writes — If you love the law or sausages, as the saying goes, best not to look too closely at how they are made. And after watching the orgy of self-pity when Newshub’s closure was announced on February 28, television journalism should definitely be added to the list of those ...
Venerable New Zealand political commentator, Chris Trotter (https://bowalleyroad.blogspot.com/), is a sad creature these days. Once one of the most reliable Leftist writers out there – Economic Left at that – Trotter seems to have absorbed the worldview of Auckland culture-war obsessives. It is not for me to categorise what he ...
The Coalition Government’s plan to ‘get Auckland moving’ is a cuts cover-up that will ultimately cost Aucklanders more to move around the city, says Labour Auckland Issues spokesperson Shanan Halbert. ...
Slashing the Ministry of Pacific Peoples by 40% will have a devastating impact on pacific communities and further highlights how little this government cares about anything other than cutting taxes for the wealthiest few. ...
Labour has proposed an urgent inquiry to investigate the ever-increasing profits of supermarkets, aiming to lower costs for shoppers and food producers alike, says Labour Spokesperson for Commerce and Consumer Affairs Arena Williams and Primary Production Spokesperson Cushla Tangaere-Manuel. ...
With 14% of jobs on the line at the Ministry for Ethnic Communities, the responsible Minister Melissa Lee is failing to stand up for the very communities she’s meant to be representing. ...
COURT OF APPEAL: TRIFECTA OF VICTORY FOR NZ FIRST, TRIFECTA OF FAILURE FOR OPPONENTS For the third time since April 2020, New Zealand First has defeated the Serious Fraud Office and all those complicit in a malicious attack against a political party going about its lawful business in a lawful ...
The Green Party stands with people who live in public housing, people in dire housing need, experts and advocates in demanding better than the Government’s archaic approach to housing those who need our support the most. ...
New Zealand has recently lost the hosting rights of some major international sporting events including the America’s Cup, the Rugby Championship, Netball World Cup, and the Wellington Sevens. We are now at a huge risk of losing SailGP as well. And it won’t stop there. The recent issues with SailGP ...
A Member’s Bill drawn this week would modernise insurance law and make things fairer and more transparent for consumers, Christchurch Central MP Duncan Webb said. ...
The Minister for Disability Issues has confirmed she was aware of funding issues in mid-December and did nothing to stop it. On 14 March, she signed off on changes that were announced and implemented on 18 March without any consultation with disability communities. ...
Green Party MP Julie Anne Genter says her members' bill is an opportunity for the coalition government to plug the gap in electric vehicle incentives. ...
The National Government continues to talk about irresponsible tax cuts that will only drive up inflation, despite the country entering a technical recession. ...
The Minister for Disability Issues must act urgently to reinstate flexibility around the funding for disability support and apologise to disabled carers. ...
This story has been initiated by a leftie shill reporter who proactively sought to call a member of a former band, which disbanded twelve years ago, give their biased appraisal of what was said in my speech, and concocted a ham-fisted attempt at a story that does nothing but show ...
The Government has accepted Labour’s change to the Road User Charge (RUC) discount for hybrid vehicles, meaning there will still be some incentive for people to buy greener vehicles. ...
Many in the mainstream media have taken what was said in New Zealand First’s State of the Nation Speech in Palmerston North on Sunday and deliberately, deceitfully, and ignorantly misrepresented what I said and why I said it. The headlines and commentary on the news stated that I compared ‘co-governance ...
Kicking the most vulnerable people out of state housing and pushing them towards homelessness will result in a proliferation of poverty and trauma across our most vulnerable communities. ...
Te Pāti Māori co-leader and MP for Waiariki, Rawiri Waititi has penned a letter asking MPs to support his members bill to remove GST from all food. The bill is expected to go through its first reading in parliament this Wednesday. “I’m calling on all political parties to support my ...
Good afternoon. Thank you for, in your very busy lives, turning up to this meeting today. On October 14th last year New Zealanders overwhelmingly voted for change. That is exactly what this new government is bringing. New Zealand First campaigned to ‘take back our country’ and stop the disastrous economic ...
This year is about getting real with Kiwis and discussing the tough issues, as the National Government exacerbates inequality and divides New Zealand, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said ...
The Government adding Significant Natural Areas (SNAs) to its already roaring environmental policy bonfire is an assault on the future of wildlife that makes Aotearoa unique. ...
After 12 years of fighting to protect our moana we are finding ourselves back at square one and back at court. Today, the Environmental Protection Agency is sitting in Hawera to reconsider an application from Trans-Tasman Resources to dig up 50 million tonnes of the seabed in South Taranaki. This ...
Minister Shane Jones’ decision to step away from a seabed mining project is evidence of the murky waters surrounding the Government’s fast-track legislation. ...
The growth of Treaty of Waitangi clauses in legislation caused so much worry that a special oversight group was set up by the last government in a bid to get greater coherence in the publicservice on Treaty matters. When ministers first considered the need for tighter oversight in 2021, there ...
The growth of Treaty of Waitangi clauses in legislation caused so much worry that a special oversight group was set up by the last government in a bid to get greater coherence in the publicservice on Treaty matters. When ministers first considered the need for tighter oversight in 2021, there ...
The Coalition Government’s miscalculation saga continues as it has forgotten an eyewatering $90 million gap in its interest deductibility cost figures, say Labour Finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds and Revenue Spokesperson Deborah Russell. ...
He Pou a Rangi Climate Change Commission has today released advice that says if the Government doesn’t act now New Zealand is at risk of not meeting its climate goals. ...
The Coalition Government has today confirmed it is abandoning first home buyers who are struggling to get ahead, says Labour Finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds. ...
Transport Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed the passing of legislation to move light electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) into the road user charges system from 1 April. “It was always intended that EVs and PHEVs would be exempt from road user charges until they reached two ...
New Zealand is strengthening its ability to combat illegal fishing outside its domestic waters and beef up regulation for its own commercial fishers in international waters through a Bill which had its first reading in Parliament today. The Fisheries (International Fishing and Other Matters) Amendment Bill 2023 sets out stronger ...
Economists Carl Hansen and Professor Prasanna Gai have been appointed to the Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Committee, Finance Minister Nicola Willis announced today. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is the independent decision-making body that sets the Official Cash Rate which determines interest rates. Carl Hansen, the executive director of Capital ...
Apartment owners and buyers will soon have greater protections as further changes to the law on unit titles come into effect, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “The Unit Titles (Strengthening Body Corporate Governance and Other Matters) Amendment Act had already introduced some changes in December 2022 and May 2023, and ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters will travel to Egypt and Europe from this weekend. “This travel will focus on a range of New Zealand’s traditional diplomatic and security partnerships while enabling broad engagement on the urgent situation in Gaza,” Mr Peters says. Mr Peters will attend the NATO Foreign ...
Transport Minister Simeon Brown is encouraging all road users to stay safe, plan their journeys ahead of time, and be patient with other drivers while travelling around this Easter long weekend. “Road safety is a responsibility we all share, and with increased traffic on our roads expected this Easter we ...
About 1.4 million New Zealanders will receive cost of living relief through increased government assistance from April 1 909,000 pensioners get a boost to Superannuation, including 5000 veterans 371,000 working-age beneficiaries will get higher payments 45,000 students will see an increase in their allowance Over a quarter of New Zealanders ...
Ensuring social housing is being provided to those with the greatest needs is front of mind as the Government restarts social housing tenancy reviews, Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka says. “Our relentless focus on building a strong economy is to ensure we can deliver better public services such as social ...
The Kermadec Ocean Sanctuary will not go ahead, with Cabinet deciding to stop work on the proposed reserve and remove the Bill that would have established it from Parliament’s order paper. “The Kermadec Ocean Sanctuary Bill would have created a 620,000 sq km economic no-go zone,” Oceans and Fisheries Minister ...
Dam safety regulations are being amended so that smaller dams won’t be subject to excessive compliance costs, Minister for Building and Construction Chris Penk says. “The coalition Government is focused on reducing costs and removing unnecessary red tape so we can get the economy back on track. “Dam safety regulations ...
The coalition Government is expanding the medium-scale adverse event classification to parts of the North Island as dry weather conditions persist, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay announced today. “I have made the decision to expand the medium-scale adverse event classification already in place for parts of the South Island to also cover the ...
The passing of legislation giving effect to coalition Government tax commitments has been welcomed by Finance Minister Nicola Willis. “The Taxation (Annual Rates for 2023–24, Multinational Tax, and Remedial Matters) Bill will help place New Zealand on a more secure economic footing, improve outcomes for New Zealanders, and make our tax system ...
Science, Innovation and Technology Minister Judith Collins and Tertiary Education and Skills Minister Penny Simmonds today announced plans to transform our science and university sectors to boost the economy. Two advisory groups, chaired by Professor Sir Peter Gluckman, will advise the Government on how these sectors can play a greater ...
The Budget will deliver urgently-needed tax relief to hard-working New Zealanders while putting the government’s finances back on a sustainable track, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The Finance Minister made the comments at the release of the Budget Policy Statement setting out the Government’s Budget objectives. “The coalition Government intends ...
The coalition Government will look at options to address a zoning issue that limits how much financial support Queenstown residents can get for accommodation. Cabinet has agreed on a response to the Petitions Committee, which had recommended the geographic information MSD uses to determine how much accommodation supplement can be ...
Cabinet has agreed to a short extension to the final reporting timeframe for the Royal Commission into Abuse in Care from 28 March 2024 to 26 June 2024, Internal Affairs Minister Brooke van Velden says. “The Royal Commission wrote to me on 16 February 2024, requesting that I consider an ...
The coalition Government is delivering an $18 million boost to New Zealanders needing to travel for specialist health treatment, Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says. “These changes are long overdue – the National Travel Assistance (NTA) scheme saw its last increase to mileage and accommodation rates way back in 2009. ...
The Government is recognising the innovative and rising talent in New Zealand’s growing space sector, with the Prime Minister and Space Minister Judith Collins announcing the new Prime Minister’s Prizes for Space today. “New Zealand has a growing reputation as a high-value partner for space missions and research. I am ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has confirmed New Zealand’s concerns about cyber activity have been conveyed directly to the Chinese Government. “The Prime Minister and Minister Collins have expressed concerns today about malicious cyber activity, attributed to groups sponsored by the Chinese Government, targeting democratic institutions in both New ...
Independent Reviewers appointed for School Property Inquiry Education Minister Erica Stanford today announced the appointment of three independent reviewers to lead the Ministerial Inquiry into the Ministry of Education’s School Property Function. The Inquiry will be led by former Minister of Foreign Affairs Murray McCully. “There is a clear need ...
State Highway 1 across the Brynderwyns will be open for Easter weekend, with work currently underway to ensure the resilience of this critical route being paused for Easter Weekend to allow holiday makers to travel north, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Today I visited the Brynderwyn Hills construction site, where ...
Introduction Good morning to you all, and thanks for having me bright and early today. I am absolutely delighted to be the Minister for Infrastructure alongside the Minister of Housing and Resource Management Reform. I know the Prime Minister sees the three roles as closely connected and he wants me ...
New Zealand stands with the United Kingdom in its condemnation of People’s Republic of China (PRC) state-backed malicious cyber activity impacting its Electoral Commission and targeting Members of the UK Parliament. “The use of cyber-enabled espionage operations to interfere with democratic institutions and processes anywhere is unacceptable,” Minister Responsible for ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters and Defence Minister Judith Collins today announced New Zealand will provide logistics support for the upcoming Solomon Islands election. “We’re sending a team of New Zealand Defence Force personnel and two NH90 helicopters to provide logistics support for the election on 17 April, at the request ...
The European Union Free Trade Agreement Legislation Amendment Bill received Royal Assent today, completing the process for New Zealand’s ratification of its free trade agreement with the European Union. “I am pleased to announce that today, in a small ceremony at the Beehive, New Zealand notified the European Union ...
Public consultation on the terms of reference for the Royal Commission into COVID-19 Lessons has concluded, Internal Affairs Minister Hon Brooke van Velden says. “I have been advised that there were over 11,000 submissions made through the Royal Commission’s online consultation portal.” Expanding the scope of the Royal Commission of ...
Hardworking families are set to benefit from a new credit to help them meet their early childcare education (ECE) costs, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. From 1 July, parents and caregivers of young children will be supported to manage the rising cost of living with a partial reimbursement of their ...
A specialised Independent Technical Advisory Group (ITAG) tasked with preparing and publishing independent non-binding advice on the design of a "green" (sustainable finance) taxonomy rulebook is being established, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. “Comprising experts and market participants, the ITAG's primary goal is to deliver comprehensive recommendations to the ...
Defence Minister Judith Collins has thanked the Chief of Army, Major General John Boswell, DSD, for his service as he leaves the Army after 40 years. “I would like to thank Major General Boswell for his contribution to the Army and the wider New Zealand Defence Force, undertaking many different ...
25 March 2024 Minister to meet Australian counterparts and Manufacturing Industry Leaders Small Business, Manufacturing, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly will travel to Australia for a series of bi-lateral meetings and manufacturing visits. During the visit, Minister Bayly will meet with his Australian counterparts, Senator Tim Ayres, Ed ...
Government commits almost $3 million for period products in schools The Coalition Government has committed $2.9 million to ensure intermediate and secondary schools continue providing period products to those who need them, Minister of Education Erica Stanford announced today. “This is an issue of dignity and ensuring young women don’t ...
Good morning, it’s great to be here. First, I would like to acknowledge the New Zealand Institute of Building Surveyors and thank you for the opportunity to be here this morning. I would like to use this opportunity to outline the Government’s ambitious plan and what we hope to ...
Minister for Pacific Peoples Dr Shane Reti has announced the Government’s commitment to the Auckland Secondary Schools Māori and Pacific Islands Cultural Festival, more commonly known as Polyfest. “The Ministry for Pacific Peoples is a longtime supporter of Polyfest and, as it celebrates 49 years in 2024, I’m proud to ...
Before moving onto the substance of today’s address, I want to recognise the very significant and ongoing contribution the Breast Cancer Foundation makes to support the lives of New Zealand women and their families living with breast cancer. I very much enjoy working with you. I also want to recognise ...
New Zealand has notched up a first with the launch of University of Canterbury research to the International Space Station, Science, Innovation and Technology and Space Minister Judith Collins says. The hardware, developed by Dr Sarah Kessans, is designed to operate autonomously in orbit, allowing scientists on Earth to study ...
Introduction Thank you for inviting me to speak with you today and I’m sorry I can’t be there in person. Yesterday I started in Wellington for Breakfast TV, spoke to a property conference in Auckland, and finished the day speaking to local government in Christchurch, so it would have been ...
The Coalition Government is contributing more than $1 million to support the establishment of an emergency multi-agency coordination centre in Northland. Emergency Management and Recovery Minister Mark Mitchell announced the contribution today during a visit of the Whangārei site where the facility will be constructed. “Northland has faced a number ...
New Zealanders have enjoyed a broader range of voices telling the story of Aotearoa thanks to the creation of Whakaata Māori 20 years ago, says Māori Development Minister Tama Potaka. The minister spoke at a celebration marking the national indigenous media organisation’s 20th anniversary at their studio in Auckland on ...
Commercial catch limits for some fisheries have been increased following a review showing stocks are healthy and abundant, Ocean and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. The changes, along with some other catch limit changes and management settings, begin coming into effect from 1 April 2024. "Regular biannual reviews of fish ...
COMMENTARY:By Ronny Kareni Since the atrocious footage of the suffering of an indigenous Papuan man reverberates in the heart of Puncak by the brute force of Indonesia’s army in early February, shocking tactics deployed by those in power to silence critics has been unfolding. Nowhere is this more evident ...
Analysis - Nicola Willis is holding firm on tax cuts despite the economic outlook being worse than forecast and critics urging her to wait, writes Peter Wilson for The Week In Politics. ...
Opposition MPs and unions are criticising a proposal by New Zealand’s Ministry of Pacific Peoples to cut staff by 40 percent. The country’s largest trade union — The Public Service Association — says the ministry has informed staff that it is looking to shed 63 of 156 positions. Opposition MPs ...
A poem by Poetry Aotearoa Yearbook 2024 featured poet Carin Smeaton. Daughtr of the 90s when she gets promoted to usherette a baby blu eel carries her all the way up to mothership she’s hovering high she lets the underaged in to see keanu reeves she lets the only lonely ...
Analysis by Keith Rankin. Keith Rankin, trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand. My earlier article – Can ‘Good’ be the Greater Evil? – looked at the issue of how wars should end, and how Good versus Evil ...
The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington.AUCKLAND1 AMMA by Saraid de Silva (Moa Press, $38)A stunning debut novel reviewed by Brannavan ...
From Steve Martin to Ricky Stanicky, a pick’n’mix of things worth watching and listening to this long weekend. This is an excerpt from our weekly pop culture newsletter Rec Room. Sign up here. If you’re at a loss for something to occupy yourself with this Easter, don’t panic: The Spinoff’s got ...
Jesus had dinner with his 12 disciples right before he died. Noted historian Madeleine Chapman finds out who really deserved to be there.First published in 2018 but let’s be honest, the subject is timeless. As you sit on your couch this Easter Sunday, eating a chocolate egg you know ...
The newly-promoted Northern League club is on a mission to return to the National League for the first time in two decades. Plenty about domestic football in New Zealand has changed in that time – but the sense that this amateur competition is not an entirely level playing field remains. ...
Comment: Every year on February 2, a dozen men in tuxedos and top hats approach the burrow of a groundhog in Gobbler’s Knob, Pennsylvania and entice the beaver-like rodent to emerge and predict the weather. If the groundhog, named Punxsutawney Phil, sees its own shadow when it is summoned, legend ...
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Auckland Council has put a deadline on new weather-impacted property owners applying for categorisation as government funding looks set to run out. Councillors have voted to support a deadline of September 30 for property owners who haven’t accessed support to come forward and engage with the council’s recovery office. It ...
NONFICTION 1 BBQ Economics by Liam Dann (Penguin Random House, $40) “It’s official,” wrote Dann nine days ago in the Herald, where he works as business editor at large, “we’re in recession.” Yeah, great. He delivered the bad stats: “GDP fell 0.1 percent in the December 2023 quarter, compared with ...
By Anneke Smith, RNZ News political reporter A petition urging the New Zealand government to provide urgent humanitarian assistance to the Palestinian people has been tabled in the House. More than 200 people gathered on Parliament’s forecourt today and they were met by MPs from Labour, the Greens and Te ...
Pacific Media Watch The Paris-based global media freedom watchdog RSF (Reporters Without Borders) has appealed for information about the “disappearance” of Palestinian journalist Bayan Abusultan. She was reportedly last seen on March 19 among people “sequestered” in this week’s raid and siege of Al Shifa hospital by Israeli troops in ...
EDITORIAL:The Jakarta Post It happens again and again; indigenous Papuans fall victim to Indonesian soldiers. This time, we have photographic evidence for the brutality, with videos on social media showing a Papuan man being tortured by a group of plainclothes men alleged to be the Indonesian Military (TNI) members. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Robyn J. Whitaker, Director of the Wesley Centre for Theology, Ethics, and Public Policy & Associate Professor, New Testament, Pilgrim Theological College, University of Divinity A strange and eclectic range of activities takes place across these few weeks of the year. Some ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Panizza Allmark, Professor Visual & Cultural Studies, Edith Cowan University It’s Easter weekend, which means many of us will be kicking back with the greatest hits on repeat. But whether you’re a boomer, or an ‘80s or ’90s kid, you might be ...
RNZ Pacific Fiji’s Acting Public Prosecutor has filed an appeal against the sentences of former prime minister Voreqe Bainimarama and suspended police chief Sitiveni Qiliho in their corruption case. Bainimarama was granted an absolute discharge for attempting to pervert the course of justice while Qiliho received a conditional discharge with ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Arosha Weerakoon, Senior Lecturer and General Dentist, School of Dentistry, The University of Queensland Casezy idea/Shutterstock How does toothpaste work? What did people use before toothpaste was invented? – Amelia, age 7, Meanjin (Brisbane) Thanks for your ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brett Hallam, Associate professor, UNSW Sydney IM Imagery/Shutterstock Solar SunShot is well named. The Australian government announced today it would plough A$1 billion into bringing back solar manufacturing to Australia, boosting energy security, swapping coal and gas jobs for those ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Clare Dix, Research Fellow in Nutrition & Dietetics, The University of Queensland Easter is the time for chocolate. The shops are full of fantastically packaged and shiny chocolates in all shapes and sizes, making trips to the supermarket with children more challenging ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Emma Felton, Adjunct Senior Researcher, University of South Australia Even in a stubborn cost-of-living crisis, it seems there’s one luxury most Australians won’t sacrifice – their daily cup of coffee. Coffee sales have largely remained stable, even as financial pressures have ...
Mining company Trans-Tasman Resources has unexpectedly withdrawn its application for a consent to suck the valuable metals vanadium and titanium from the Taranaki seafloor, as it apparently wagers on the Government’s new fast-track process. It had spent two-and-a-half days putting its case to the Environmental Protection Agency’s decision-making committee, at ...
Contrary to the Associate Minister of Education’s claims, analysis of Healthy School Lunches Programme - Ka Ora, Ka Ako assessments has revealed it provides excellent value for the taxpayer dollar, as a groundswell of public opposition to Government ...
Greenpeace says wannabe Taranaki seabed miner Trans-Tasman Resources is likely banking on Christopher Luxon’s fast-track process to side-step proper scrutiny of its Taranaki seabed mining proposal by bailing out of the Environmental Protection Agency hearing ...
Kiwis Against Seabed mining today slammed Australian owned would-be seabed miner Trans Tasman Resources (TTR) for abandoning its application to the Environmental Protection Authority (EPA) to mine the seabed of the South Taranaki Bight. The company ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Katie Attwell, Associate Professor, School of Social Sciences, The University of Western Australia Ground Picture/Shutterstock Months after COVID vaccines were introduced in 2021, governments and private organisations mandated them for various groups. Health and aged care workers were among the ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Dzurak, Scientia Professor Andrew Dzurak, CEO and Founder of Diraq, UNSW Sydney Diraq For decades, the pursuit of quantum computing has struggled with the need for extremely low temperatures, mere fractions of a degree above absolute zero (0 Kelvin or ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne A national Essential poll, conducted March 20–24 from a sample of 1,150, gave the Coalition a 50–44 lead including undecided, a reversal ...
The Taxpayers’ Union has today made a formal request under the Regulations of the People’s Republic of China on Open Government Information () for information held about how New Zealand Members of Parliament are spending taxpayer ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Robert Nelson, Honorary Principal Fellow, The University of Melbourne A Byzantine depiction of the Eucharist in Saint Sophia Cathedral, Kyiv.Jacek555/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA A nasty quarrel arose in the 11th century over what kind of bread should be used in holy ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Patrick Hesp, Professor, Flinders University Patrick Hesp In some parts of Australia, coastal dunes are retreating from the ocean at an alarming rate, as waves carve up the beach and wind blows the sand inland. But coastal communities are largely ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Luke Heemsbergen, Senior Lecturer, Digital, Political, Media, Deakin University With an impressive 60% of the US smartphone market, Apple is undeniably big, but not a clear monopoly. Yet, years of innovation by Apple have effectively given the company its own exclusive ...
Whether you’re facing layoffs or are just an emotional junior staffer, it’s always a good idea to scout out a good crying place before you need it. It’s an incredibly hard time for Wellington. Across the city, thousands of public servants are hearing tough news about redundancies and layoffs. Government ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James Miller-Jones, Professor, Curtin University Nuclear explosions on a neutron star feed its jets. Danielle Futselaar and Nathalie Degenaar, Anton Pannekoek Institute, University of Amsterdam, CC BY-SA How fast can a neutron star drive powerful jets into space? The answer, it ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Daryl Adair, Associate Professor of Sport Management, University of Technology Sydney Earlier this week, independent MP Andrew Wilkie accused the AFL of conducting “off the books” illicit drug testing to identify players using substances of abuse, then inappropriately withdrawing them from matches ...
The Government’s announcement that it will scrap plans for a vast marine sanctuary around the Kermadec Islands is ‘shameful’ and will make it impossible for Aotearoa New Zealand to meet its international commitments, says the World Wide Fund for Nature ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of Queensland Shutterstock The federal government has bowed to pressure from the car industry, announcing it will relax proposed emissions rules for utes and vans and delay enforcement of the new standards ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Suzanne Rutland, Professor Emerita, University of Sydney In his latest book, Jewish Life in Medieval Spain, Jonathan Ray focuses on the tumult of the 14th century in Spain – a time of the plague, civil strife and war between the two largest ...
While creating a slate of world-class shows, Whakaata Māori also developed a generation of world-class creatives. Television is an odd word. It mixes the Ancient Greek and Latin languages, and its most literal meaning is “far-off sight”. In the contemporary and living language of te reo Māori, “whakaata” as a ...
Yesterday the UN Security Council passed a resolution demanding an immediate ceasefire in Israel’s war on Gaza. This significant step and the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Gaza prompted an urgent debate in the New Zealand Parliament. Leader ...
The Government’s decision to reduce access to continuous glucose monitors (CGM) not only threatens the lives of children with type 1 diabetes and increases the potential for ‘Dead in Bed’ syndrome, but also threatens the health of their parents an ...
Apples are available year-round, but the wide variety on offer involves intensive scientific research – and large-scale commercialisation. What’s beautiful, red, sweet and crunchy? Tony Martin’s favourite kind of apple: Sassy. The CEO of apple and pear breeding organisation Prevar, Martin’s fondness for Sassy represents professional success as well as ...
Family violence specialist service Shine is calling on employers to stop asking for proof of domestic violence in order for employees to access domestic violence leave. The call comes five years after the introduction of the Domestic Violence ...
The Deputy Chairperson of the Finance and Expenditure Committee is calling for public submissions on the Budget Policy Statement 2024. The Budget Policy Statement 2024 (BPS) sets out the Government's priorities for the 2024 Budget. It explains the approach ...
Brutal government spending cuts that will see the size of the Ministry for Pacific Peoples slashed by 40% will hit Pasifika communities hard, the PSA says. The Ministry has told staff that it is seeking voluntary redundancies, and to redeploy and reassign ...
I live with five people I mostly love, but our different ideas about generosity are starting to really irk me.Want Hera’s help? Email your problem to helpme@thespinoff.co.nzDear Hera,This is a bit of a random one but here goes. I’m 22 and work an OK job (OK meaning I get paid ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Maria Nicholas, Senior Lecturer in Language and Literacy Education, Deakin University Earlier this month, the New South Wales government announced it would roll out programs for gifted students in every public school in the state. This comes amid concerns gifted school ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christopher Rudge, Law lecturer, University of Sydney Massachusetts General Hospital In a world first, we heard last week that US surgeons had transplanted a kidney from a gene-edited pig into a living human. News reports said the procedure was a ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Tombs, Howard Paterson Chair of Theology and Public Issues, University of Otago The 5th-century Maskell panel showing Jesus in a loincloth.British Museum, CC BY-NC-SA When Jesus is shown on the cross, he is almost always depicted wearing a loincloth around ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Panizza Allmark, Professor Visual & Cultural Studies, Edith Cowan University Shutterstock When you think about a red object, you might picture a red carpet, or the massive ruby in the Queen’s crown. Indeed, Western monarchies and marketing from brands such ...
COMMENTARY:Jewish Voice for Peace The UN Security Council passed a resolution demanding an immediate ceasefire in Gaza on Monday — and for the first time since the beginning of the Israeli military’s genocide of Palestinians, the United States abstained rather than vetoing it. Security Council resolutions are legally binding, ...
Asia Pacific Report A New Zealand investigative journalist and author says the US spy system hosted by the Government Communications Security Bureau (GCSB) appears to be a controversial intelligence system used in global capture-kill operations. Writing a commentary for RNZ News today, Nicky Hager, author of Secret Power, a 1996 ...
While Nicola Willis wouldn’t give any details on its size, she said a package of tax cuts is definitely still coming in this year’s budget, writes Catherine McGregor in this excerpt from The Bulletin, The Spinoff’s morning news round-up. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here. ...
The Taxpayers’ Union is welcoming the investigation into the Department of Internal Affairs after it was revealed that the Department’s Chief Executive personally reached out to expedite a DJs passport application. Taxpayers’ Union Campaigns ...
Finance minister Nicola Willis delivers her first budget statement, and unwittingly helps Joel MacManus save his relationship. Nicola Willis strode into the Beehive Theatrette. Around me, on the green foldout seats, were the country’s top business and political journalists. They were all here to see her announce the Budget Policy ...
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Science validates Trump: "analysis of the coronavirus by specialist biologists suggests that all available data shows it was taken into the market by someone already carrying the disease. They say they were "surprised" to find the virus was "already pre-adapted to human transmission"… The claims come as Beijing thwarts global efforts to establish the source of the virus. The news will fuel concerns over the Communist regime's cover-up".
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12332538
"The new research is clear in its finding. "The publicly available genetic data does not point to cross-species transmission of the virus at the market," said Alina Chan, a molecular biologist, and Shing Zhan, an evolutionary biologist."
Since apparently I have not been following closely enough, can you point out what the stable genious said which has been validated and what statements by the authors of the study validate it?
It looks to me like you were clickbated by the Herald into a narrative carefully not made or excluded by the writer.
I doubt you're really that superficial! All over the global news in recent weeks, doesn't really matter which source to quote. However, the BBC gives this context from over a month ago:
"In a report attributed to multiple unnamed sources, Fox News said the coronavirus was a naturally occurring pathogen that leaked from a Wuhan facility because of lax safety protocols, infecting an intern, who then transmitted it to her boyfriend." https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-52305562/coronavirus-trump-says-we-ll-see-about-wuhan-lab-claims
The US "National Institutes of Health …gave a grant totaling $3.4 million, beginning in 2014, to the U.S.-based EcoHealth Alliance to study the risk of the future emergence of coronaviruses from bats. And EcoHealth distributed $600,000 of that total to the Wuhan Institute of Virology, a collaborator on the project, pre-approved by NIH." https://www.factcheck.org/2020/05/trump-spreads-distorted-claim-on-wuhan-lab-funding/
Easy to see why the US, part-funding the lab research into batshit coronaviruses, feels partially responsible for the outcome. Hence tries to muscle China into sharing responsibility. As if it were a moral stance, y'know?
All the study concludes is that the virus samples from the wet market mutated less than a virus which just jumped species was understood to mutate. The implication is there was an earlier infected case who brought it into there.
It doesn't say anything about where that case jumped species. Just it wasn't at the market according to the evidence of the study (+ its hard to exclude anything based on our understanding of virus evolution).
Exactly Nic the NZer.
It certainly doesn't validate Trumps conspiracy theories about the virus source.
The item comes across to me as a puerile attempt to somehow cast aspersions on China and give credence to Trump’s assumption it is part of a sinister Chinese plot. Further to that, it could have happened elsewhere in the world but it happened in China. So, the big lesson for them is to ban the bloody disease ridden wet markets for starters.
Note: this story is being touted by Fox News. That's enough to cast aspersions on the motivation.
only thing on fox thats true is the simpsons
lol.
Fox News reporting secondhand something Trump said doesn't count as evidence for the validation claim imo. The bit you quote isn't from Trump, it's from Fox.
Anne made the same point. I'm somewhat averse to Fox myself, of course, but I feel I ought to make a point about how news orgs operate (based on my ten years working in the TVNZ newsroom cutting news & current affairs stories).
Bias & professional standards go hand in hand: the former covert/tacit, the latter overt/explicit. So one must decode.
The key point is that I sourced it from the BBC. Do they routinely republish stuff from Fox? Not that I've noticed. So the editorial decision to do so was made on merit. Is the BBC right-wing? Since the early '70s, I've not seen anyone claim that (in those days all state media was `fascist'). To the contrary, it's been normal in right-wing circles to call the BBC socialist since the '80s.
So the news editor made the decision on newsworthiness. My take is that the code-word `multiple' triggered that decision. It implies more than several. So when a journo checks for confirmation from independent sources and encounters multiple, perception along the lines of `hell of a lot of smoke, must be a fire' happens.
So the BBC editor concurred with the Fox editor on that basis. Now you & Anne may feel Fox just invented the multiple sources. Having been equally cynical a very long time I can't be critical of that – just believe it is very unlikely based on my experience of broadcast practice.
that's all very interesting Dennis, but all I need is the actual quote from Trump so I can weigh it up against the claim that he was right.
If (according to the NZH link) Trump "claimed it emerged from a Wuhan laboratory working on bat-borne diseases", then where is the back up for that? Your quote says that someone carried it into a Wuhan market. That's not the same as it coming from a Chinese lab. It might be, but who knows?
The claim that "Science validates Trump" has yet to be demonstrated on both counts 🙂
Thus far it looks like clickbait (MSM and yourself) and politicbait (two macho countries).
Okay, I see where you're coming from. I think the Herald was simply recycling the common view that had formed over recent weeks based on what Trump and others in his cabinet had said.
I agree that I was painting with a broad brush without providing details. I had in mind the shaping of mass perceptions – along the lines of folks believing in climate change as opposed to lack of detailed proof. 😇
There was only one, just one, mention of Trump in the NZH article!?
When you read “a report attributed to multiple unnamed sources” without any further evidence to corroborate the claims your alarm bells should go off like emergency sirens. A similar PR tool is ‘anecdotal evidence’. When the stakes are high, the burden of proof is high too. Until that time, it is all innuendo and hearsay. Didn’t think I had to lecture you on that!?
There are professional disciplines around scepticism/sources which the BBC editor would have applied. That person is part of management – not just a journalist. The ethics of protecting sources come into play.
Sure, you & I can be as sceptical as we like. Having spent a large part of my life making news stories for journos, I have ended up moderating my natural scepticism, balancing it against my informed view of how those people work.
You can bypass all that and cut it out from and avoid the clouding of your thinking if you focus on the science. Read the ‘landmark study’ and forget about the political framing by a broadcast company with strong and historical ties to political establishment. Don’t be lazy or a sheep, think for yourself.
Look, political outcomes are produced by media framing. Trying to ignore that defeats the point of political commentary. What matters is what determines the decision-making in the court of public opinion. Scientists seeming to validate Trump's stance does exactly that.
His poll ratings will not be effected by what is written in scientific papers unless media reports give it sufficient weight!
There is so much wrong with this comment.
Scientists don’t validate Trump’s stance. His stance may or may not be consistent with the science.
I was talking about you commenting and framing, not the media or political spin doctors or others with invested interests in ‘the truth’.
You are the one here who is putting science into a different framework. I have pointed it out to you and yet you keep doing it!?
I do it to alert folks to the likely effect on mass perceptions. It is that effect which is most influential in (co-)creating political reality. I assumed you would understand that. Do you not??
And I note how you subtly misrepresented what I wrote by deleting "seeming". Naughty!
"His stance may or may not be consistent with the science."
In a stopped clock being right twice a day kind of way.
I love anecdotal evidence. It basically amounts to "I heard from Gladys down at the Four Square that Eunice Carlyle in number seven eats cats. That's why your Fluffy's been missing for six weeks."
Eric Trump reckons the virus is a hoax concocted by the Democrats to sabotage The Tangerine Abomination's election chances, probably because his old man told him so, so yeah, we can all rest easy.
That doesn't validate the chumpster Den, I doubt you're really that sly and disingenuous. In praxis.
Not to you, Gabs. Nor to me. But it does to a politically significant slice of observers. That's my point.
Sneaky Den, sneaky. It's just what ppl will think, it's not what I think guv, no not me.
Thats interesting Dennis. The western newspapers certainly took to the theory of the Wuhan market like a duck to water . Misleading videos of bat soup being drunk , and calls for the wet markets to be banned.
Now that much earllier( mid November) cases of covid 19 are being detected by re examining samples and chest xrays from unusual pneumonia cases in France , Italy and the US, we will eventually find patient zero
Wuhan may have been the first to identify the unknown novel virus(probably because they had the best virologists on hand)but that is not grounds for pinging it as the source. Wuhan is a large city with huge number s of annual visitors
A visitor could easily have carried the virus from elsewhere
Hindsight will be our teacher here
Entertain all the theories you like, but new information is gathering every day
If someone said yesterday that a person bought the virus into the market they would be labelled a conspiracy theorist. I find it interesting you're open to entertaining that theory now, but not the other lab source conspiracy…
New information is is becoming available.Thats why the rush to point the finger is so stupid
But really, would you not have considered that as a possibility?
As far as the lab source goes, there's no evidence.Several western colleagues of the Wuhan virologists who have knowledge of the lab and its research also declare the unlikelihood of an escape
I posted this link yesterday but you can lead a horse to water etc
https://www.vox.com/2020/4/23/21226484/wuhan-lab-coronavirus-china
Well if it was bought into the market, then the market is not the origin of the virus. Which makes all the "scientific" finger pointing at the market just an initial guess.
The vox article relies a lot on people who have a connection to the lab, and more so on Mr. Daszsak who I thought was leading project work there. Not a bad little PR exercise. If science/media wanted to rule out the lab, they would at least investigate the work being done there. Which is the sort of work Martenson has been doing…
There's a logic fail and a conceptual fail in your comments.
The logic fail is simple: accepting that there were cases before the market cluster is logically different to focusing on a particular potential source for that market clust (in this case the lab). Apparently there was a possible case in France in November that has been retrospectively identified. that means that not only is the lab connection a red herring, the entire focus on Wuhan might actually be a case of "Spanish Flu" all over again – the virus started somewhere completely different, wandered around the globe, but it clocked off in China for some reason.
The conceptual fail is the idea of the index patient. The earliest detected infection is not usually the source, it is simply the first case detected.
for example, the known index case for AIDS was almost certainly not the person to get it first.
Well put.
Note that the Wuhan-Hu-1 isolate was taken in early December 2019 and the market samples in January 2020, according to ‘the new landmark study’. However, the original published paper states “a single patient who was a worker at the market and who was admitted to the Central Hospital of Wuhan on 26 December 2019 while experiencing a severe respiratory syndrome that included fever, dizziness and a cough”. Confusing, but it emphasises the close links, in space and in time, between Wuhan-Hu-1 and the market samples.
the virus started somewhere completely different, wandered around the globe, but it clocked off in China for some reason.
Logical fail right there.
What you selectively omit is the first known case in Wuhan is now dated on Nov 17. So we know it was present in the city on or before that date. What we don't know is in what numbers, or when the first human case really occurred, but it could easily have been sometime in October.
What we do know is the virus has a period where cases are low and mostly asymptomatic. But at some stage inside a month they inevitably take off, and that first happened in Wuhan in early December when the local hospitals started reporting unusual pneumonia's. At least four to six weeks earlier than anywhere else.
Logically this still places patient zero in Wuhan in the one city on planet earth where there is a BSL4 lab studying closely related virus's.
Sure other explanations are still going to be possible, but any serious investigation is going to have to start where the first known outbreak occurred. All else is wishful thinking for obviously political ends.
And in my link, there may have been cases in France at about the same time as the first known case in Wuhan.
Any serious investigation it going to start with confirming that the first known outbreak was in fact the first outbreak. A step you seem to frequently skip over in your obsession to build a case against your prime suspect.
Any serious investigation it going to start with confirming that the first known outbreak was in fact the first outbreak.
All the evidence from multiple countries in the past five months, is that it circulates at low, mostly undiagnosed levels in a population for 2-8 weeks, and then if no containment measures are in place, without exception the serious cases start arriving in the hospitals at an exponential rate. That first happened in Wuhan.
But hell you could be right. Xi Xinping looks like he's going to agree to an investigation.
well, no, not quite all the evidence. E.g. the possible French link. E.g. lack of a comprehensive review of retrospective tests from samples around the world, just to be reasonably sure that the first few cycles of infection didn't occur somewhere completely different to your preferred prime suspect.
But all the evidence you're prepared to consider conveniently points to a handy case of culpable concealment by an organisation you really dislike. Lucky, that.
The first patient was admitted on 12 December IIRC.
Well it's hardly going to have magicked itself into existence in the market now is it.
It did it somewhere.
No reason why not in the market.
But the earlier cases suggest that it could simply be trade-related, and the actual crossover occurred somewhere else: dude has cold, goes on trip, visits market (not even selling any animals or meat), infects a stallholder who infects their colleagues, dude goes back home and gets over the cold. Didn't infect anyone else because luck and the stallholder was their main contact (or just luck).And by the time that the dude has returned, the pig that got it from a bat and gave it to the dude has been cooked.
Alternatively, the evil communists covered up that their lab leaks like a seive, that the half dozen people who worked there all got colds in late October, and none of their colleagues from other countries noticed.
Your interpretation of the article and research is quite flawed. It has been obvious for a while that it wasn't a new species jump. The mutation rate was too low.
All that was said was that it was unlikely that this virus did the species jump in the market. Unlike SARS this one didn't show signs of immediate adaption to another host species. And it was likely that human brought the virus, already adapted, into the market and very likely into Wuhan.
My bet is that there is a population of humans around somewhere that has had the SARS (or something like it) virus endemic in their villages for quite a while, and trade has brought it to Wuhan.
Trump, being a mindless fool will of course prefer your explanation. The Chinese being rather paranoid at present will deny.
Net effect is that with all of the idiotic headline generated dick waving we're not going to get teams in to trace the actual source. Where there is one human adapted virus after a species jump there are likely to be a few.
Welcome to the next pandemic…
I'll keep an open mind on the source. The main point is that the scientists cite genetic evidence that the source is unlikely to be from the raw meat market, and since Trump was suggesting the lab as a likely source, they are validating his stance. That's how it will seem to most media consumers. I realise you have some kind of experiential basis for your commentary and haven't found reason to disagree with your overall view, but it would be interesting to know what that basis is…
Whatever the understandings about overall view, your overall view is that Trump is right, 'science validates Trump' and that should be fed to media consumers.
It's the great sort of things for headline writers – 'Science backs Trump Wuhan picture.'
You know the picture, the blockbuster movie he wants us to believe, Chinese scientists beavering away trying to create some terrible disease to wipe out America and other parts of the world for their political and economic advantage.
I can imagine if Trump doesn't win in November. He'll have it that Obama used the American scientists in their work in projects with the Wuhan Institute of Virology to help the Chinese plot and scheme to get rid of him and the coronavirus was the vehicle.
https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-05-09/was-the-coronavirus-made-in-a-wuhan-lab-heres-what-the-genetic-evidence-shows
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-admin-pulls-nih-grant-coronavirus-research-ties/story?id=70418101
Peter: "your overall view is that Trump is right". Me: wrong conclusion. No evidence that he is. So I just pointed out that the scientists have validated his stance. Directing suspicion against the lab is a valid political strategy now that science is ruling out the "cross-species transmission of the virus at the market".
Science is a contestable discipline, so we await input from similar highly-qualified specialists. The research findings of the duo may turn out to be insufficiently robust. I do agree Trump will not scruple to use the plot scenario for re-election purposes if he feels the need.
You forgot to include “seeming” this time. Sloppy and naughty!
A prescient scenario. And since Biden is just Obama's puppet (Obama is the real president) then he is equally culpable. "Lock em both up for treason" will be the rallying cry. 🙄
Obama is the real president? Yes, and Helen Clark is the real prime minister of New Zealand.
Easily sorted out though, just get Obama and Clark to drive past G5 towers and Covid-5 will leap out and get them.
with bill gates driving a tesla . may as well get all the tin hatters here.
Don't have time to go into it now – have some code to finish, and I'm monitoring an bot attack on the site.
I commented on this about a month ago. There is a site that has a graph of the clades… Umm
https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global?c=clade_membership
You can play around with that. But essentially it looks like the number of genome sites that the virus has diverged has been pretty low (even now). That speaks to a virus that didn't just jump to humans. It has been used to humans for a while. We're talking years or even decades.
Most of the changes that are still extant worldwide were already present in Wuhan. It really doesn't seem like there are many mutations that aren't getting pruned by covid-19's own systems
Whereas if you looked at SARS, which was definitely a species that just jumped to humans. Killed a very high percentage of its hosts. Had a lot of variations even in its brief career.
At a political level – yes of course. And the attitude of the Chinese about getting medical survey teams in isn't helping. They should just exclude all political appointees and go with actual known active virologists and plan to have them in-country for about a year chasing the source down.
Covid-19 will be just one of a range of human adapted viruses from whatever the original source is. Having Trump waving his dick around, apart from it being unhygenic and probably diseased, doesn't help in finding out what the next pandemic will be.
I only follow the general gist. I'm a physics graduate – ignorant of genetics. So did you study genetics at university? I just want to know if your analysis emerges from some kind of formal qualification. I can already tell you grasp the reasoning involved – I just need some kind of frame to put on that.
The mutation rate was too low.
Which would be true if you assume a natural process. But routine lab procedure are exactly intended to force viral evolution, speeding up mutation rates in order to get to results within days or weeks, instead of having to wait decades.
Our problem here is that most of us are very unfamiliar with this whole area of science and it makes evaluating competing claims very difficult. Here is another informed view:
The whole article is quite readable and interesting. Our fundamental problem is that nothing can be ruled in or out at present. Apparently informed people are making claims that on examination that are based on circular reasoning, questionable presuppositions and selective accounts of the science.
My favourite scifi author Vernor Vinge wrote in his The Peace Wars series (published in the 80's) of how biologists would create diseases that devastated humanity, but no-one could ever get to the truth and no-one was ever held accountable. As a result in his somewhat dystopian future world, the bio-scientists had been deemed illegal, highly despised and driven deeply underground. Because there was no effective oversight mechanism, no-one trusted them, and the potential good they could also do was lost to humanity.
We are probably not quite there yet, but the path we are on could easily have this as a destination.
Yeah, but the problem is that evolutionary biowar pattern simply isn't that useful for slow plague spread – which is what this one does. That is why virtually all of the material published on biowar weapons was orientated towards contact, short incubation, and kill rather than population spread. Natural evolution strongly tends towards getting the host to breed viruses without killing the host. Biowar patterns are more like SARS or Ebola or dispersed spread anthrax than what covid-19 is.
So far no-one has managed to point to anything that indicates that this is engineered weapon. And the way that it operates indicates that it has had a significant evolution in bats, and quite a lot of time adapting to how to infect humans without killing too many of them.
Which the pattern you've pointed to doesn't allow without a butt load of deaths.
I suspect your aversion to the PRC is overcoming your common sense.
Don't think he's pointing to a deliberate release. Accidental, I reckon. The Hopkins covid tracker graph shows a classic linear increase. Not exponential. If it were malignant population elimination, you'd see exponential.
Also the daily rate stabilised weeks ago – we can see that by selecting the daily tab on that graph. So as contagions go, this looks rather moderate…
Huh?
He may have been bouncing off this from earlier in the year… https://www.theweek.in/theweek/cover/2020/01/31/genie-from-a-war-lab.html
Huh??????
Are you referring to yourself in the third person? Anything after “[a]ccidental, I reckon” made no sense to me. It sounded like your reckons!?
evolutionary biowar pattern simply isn't that useful for slow plague spread – which is what this one does.
Nowhere have I described this as a 'biowar' virus. It clearly doesn't fit the pattern of a conventional military tool. But that doesn't rule out other possible reasons why this virus could have been evolved within a lab setting.
For a start WIV is tightly linked to the PLA and in that context there is every reason to expect at least some research programs to be secret and unpublished. Assuming that every virus they had worked on was actually published is naive in the extreme.
Indeed the CCP has now been forced to admit they ordered the destruction of samples and work done at WIV early in January, further muddying the evidential trail.
And since late January all Chinese research must be passed through political control before being released.
Assuming you know anything accurate and sufficient to draw firm conclusions in this environment is optimistic at best.
So far no-one has managed to point to anything that indicates that this is engineered weapon.
The term 'weapon' implies malicious intent, but until we understand exactly how this virus arose we cannot determine intent. And I've been very careful not to go to that conclusion. That's twice in one comment you've pulled that straw man on me.
What I believe is necessary here is that until we have an independent, trusted and impartial investigation … free to the extent possible of either US or CCP political interference … then we will not get to the truth.
Oh and not only me but 62 other nations.
I suspect your aversion to the PRC is overcoming your common sense.
And content not with two strawmen, you pull a third. At no point have I attacked or denigrated in any fashion the people of China. As I've made it clear many times, I have close Chinese family and social connections. You may want to ask our old friend CV exactly which regular here at TS was the most generally supportive of him for many years. Bill's charges of 'idiot xenophobia' is wrong on the facts, intellectually lazy and downright irksome.
On the other hand the CCP is a different creature altogether … yes my dislike of them is real and well founded. Then again I'm not the only one to have concluded … before COVID … that the current Chinese government under Xi Xinping’s rule are a pack of genocidal, power-mad, information-suppressing, exploitative, ultra-nationalists.
Trump was of course for some months very supportive of the CCP effort in containing CV19; but now of course it turns out all of this was bullshit and it was already loose on the world, and Trump is now expressing considerable disappointment in what has happened … everyone is now idiotically acting as if the CCP is somehow lily-white and the innocent party.
Trump plastering his sticky mitts over this issue, for his own political purposes, makes him no-one's hero. Nothing he has to say now in May, has any relevance to what we need to know about what may have been happening at WIV last year. This event has already caused immense grief and hardship in just a few short months, and is on track to cause a great deal more.
Why is everyone so resistant to the idea that a full investigation, and if warranted a proper accountability, needs to happen? Hell if this was a coal mine explosion there would be no problem.
"that the current Chinese government under Xi Xinping’s rule are a pack of genocidal, power-mad, information-suppressing, exploitative, ultra-nationalists."
Hear hear!
I have Uyghur friends. Ask them what they think of the CCP.
I have Uyghur friends
That's interesting, Tony. Do they live here (immigrants)? Or have you travelled through their region?
I presume they see their ethnicity as being a target due to muslim religion but it would be interesting to know if the regime's policy is viewed as racist too (on a similar basis to their oppression of Tibetans, I mean).
I taught for a bit over 3 years in Urumqi, and travelled fairly widely in the region and the 'stans.'
There are few Uyghurs living in NZ and most are pretty guarded in their public criticism of the regime, having relatives back in Xinjiang. Their most frequent beef is about the oppression of their religion, though they have no general love for the Han.
This may be correct, strictly speaking, but you did include it in your quote @ 1.3.2 and if you were simply trying to outline how forced evolution can be done in an appropriate lab and the corresponding workflow then you could have stopped the quote there and then. You didn’t and this is slightly confusing. See what I’m saying?
As long as political games are played over and on top of this, the chances of getting to bottom of it are nil. This was the point I tried to make with Dennis but he didn’t get it. Welcome next pandemic?
You didn’t and this is slightly confusing.
Yes I can see the possible confusion arising from my quotation, but the full article makes it clearer. The point is that the 'gain of function' procedures for developing vaccines are for all practical purposes indistinguishable from developing a biowar virus. You really cannot conclusively determine intent just by looking at the genetic sequence (unless the developer was especially clumsy) of the resulting virus. Which is why I've been careful all along to avoid ascribing intent behind SAR-COV-2.
As you say only an apolitical investigation will suffice to uncover the truth. Interestingly Xi Xingping last night seems to have agreed to such a thing, but then immediately undermined his bona fides by slapping an 80% tariff on Australian barley … and then has the bare faced gall to pretend it has nothing to do with Australia being the nation that lead the call for the investigation.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-18/china-to-impose-tariffs-on-australian-barley/12261108
The CoV closest to SARS-CoV-2 is RaTG13 and even that one is a bit of a mystery, which makes SARS-CoV-2 and even bigger mystery as to where it came from, when, and where it first jumped to human if that is what actually happened. Without finding the missing link(s), we will never know. This could leave us less or under-prepared for the next pandemic, which is such a compelling argument, in my opinion, that one wonders why anybody would resist accepting it …
Indeed.
Sometime around 2001 I was working on a site on my own, and at dinner that night I was sat at the same table with another guy also on his own. He was a Scottish academic turned commercial, and his background was a rather unusual mix (for then) of computer science and genetics.
The one thing I clearly recall from the conversation that night was his description of how the work the team he was leading was going to enable genetic sequencing of full genomes within days or even hours. Keep in mind that the first full human genome project had only just been done, and had taken a huge collaborative effort to achieve. I was pretty impressed, only a few times in life do you get the chance to meet people you know will change our world.
Now less than 20 years later all of his predictions are come true, and we take them for granted. Our progress in this genetic biotech area is only just beginning; comparable to where the quantum mechanics era was in say the 1930's.
You are right, this will not be the last event of this kind to challenge us. Disease is our ancient enemy, it has deep roots in our behaviours and beliefs, and in many ways I suspect this new found power will prove more troublesome to our collective sanity than any before it.
It is another nuclear moment in human history 😉
Sorry, I couldn’t help myself.
Yes it is; but the same knowledge that bought us Tsar Bomba also delivered the computers were are typing on.
We can only speculate why you started your
framingcomment with Trump.The original but not yet peer-reviewed paper is your best source of scientific information without the distracting framing and other unhelpful baggage.
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.01.073262v1.full.pdf
The paper is actually remarkably easy (!) to read, almost as if it was written with one eye on an audience of laypeople. I recommend it.
If you do read it, you’ll note the carefully worded conclusions and the many still-unanswered questions.
Obviously, the market was a factor in spreading the disease, through the food sold there but more likely predominantly through the people mingling there.
As such, it does not answer the main questions.
The media does have a habit of interpreting science, true. I guess I'm pragmatic in seeing political players using those media interpretations rather than actual scientific opinions (because they believe the public are influenced by the former way more than the latter).
Political commentary inevitably flows from framing used by politicians and media, in consequence of that influence on the balance of public opinion. So I'm no different from any other commentator in that respect.
I looked at the abstract & conclusion of the paper itself via your link, thanks, but see no reason for further comment on it at this stage.
You fell in the classic trap of letting the framing and interpretations by and from others influence your thinking and judgement about something that is primarily a scientific quest. Arguably, most commenters go ‘but Trump’, ‘but Putin’, ‘but her e-mails’, ‘but the CCP’, et cetera, rather than reading a scientific paper. If the horse doesn’t want to be led then it is likely a donkey, or an old goat … 😉
Leftist Oz greenie rationalises personal angst into public policy via a critique of racist Labour immigration dog-whistling: https://greenagenda.org.au/2020/05/was-keneallys-migration-diatribe-fair-dinkum-racist/
"A lot of well-meaning Australians get frustrated when any attempt to start a conversation about migration immediately attracts accusations of racism. This is particularly so for many Greens, whose white fragility prevents them from recognising how sustainability arguments for limiting immigration can be inherently racist."
"The hard truth is that in settler-colonial countries like Australia, you simply can’t talk sensibly about migration without talking about racism. The two topics are inextricably linked, and leaving race out of the conversation – like you’re some kind of ‘objective’ scientist neutrally discussing populations and carrying capacities without acknowledging past and ongoing systemic racism – just tacitly reinforces racist norms."
Interesting because it shows how willing the left are to divide on an esoteric basis. No need for the controllers to use `divide & rule' – the proles do it to themselves. Politically-correct posturing normally seems irrelevant – but the writer appears to be conscience-driven, so I'm responding to the sincerity.
I would say it's better to reference racism when talking about immigration and green issues because we have a culture of racism in NZ against certain ethnicities who make up a large part of our new migrants. Listening to the voices of those people helps us, it's not a hindrance.
Otoh, many on the left tend to reject any discussion about population and ecology/climate as classist, and any discussion of immigration and ecology/climate as racist, so the development of ideas in this area looks stalled to me.
Both sides taking a position of outright rejection of the other leaves us in a false binary, and these don't help.
Then we have the "right" hypocritically crying "racism" whenever their supply of underpaid labour, or wealthy land buyers, looks threatened.
Discussion of population is usually shut down as Malthusian anti-human oppression, or racist against Africans, who are on an unsustainable growth trajectory. There is a crazy dude on Twitter who advocates for a global one-child policy and he's got a point. At this point, human population growth means ecosystem destruction, and eventual catastrophe if we don't stop.
At this point, human population growth means ecosystem destruction, and eventual catastrophe if we don't stop.
In all the developed nations birth rates are now either below or close to replacement. In a number of European nations total population is already declining. Global growth rate is declining.
Only in a relative handful of very poor and/or dysfunctional nations do we still see uncontrolled birth rates.
Malthus had it backwards, increased incomes actually decrease birth rates.
NZ and Australia still growing at an alarming rate, addicted to that GDP juice, making things shittier all round for a lot of people, who are usually ignored or told to shut up, because the wealthy transnational prof classes are making bank and they consider themselves world citizens above the hoi polloi
NZ and Australia still growing at an alarming rate
Both countries have typically low birth rates similar to most other developed nations. Being well run countries they both remain attractive immigration destinations which account for the bulk of their population growth.
New Zealand data for 2019 shows a fertility rate of 1.75 which is significantly below the replacement rate of 2.1. The only reason why our population is growing immigration and population momentum. (And for the time being NZ immigration is going to be confined to NZ ex-pats returning.)
But globally the era of dramatic population growth is over. The data is in, education, development and GDP all strongly correlate with dramatically lowering birth rates. Most projections now show that human population will peak at 11.5b by the end of the century and then drop quite rapidly after that; the vast majority of that growth coming from Africa and partly Asia.
Auckland is about to run out of water. Our infrastructure is about 30 years behind population growth (because central govt didn't want to control it). Houses are completely unaffordable for essential workers like cops, teachers and nurses. This is not sustainable
The Waikato River supplies about 33% of Auckland's total supply and has consents to go further to about 36%. That's around 136 million litres per day (or 136 MLD). The current consent limit is 150 MLD.
Today at Mercer the total river is running at about 210 m3/sec or 18,144 MLD.
As you can see there is no shortage of water. It is a constraint on treatment and pumping capacity that is the problem. The system was not designed to cope with such a dry year, but fixing that has nothing to do with population, and everything to do with some capital and engineering.
Don't misread me here; I'm no more a fan of an overcrowded NZ than you are. I grew up in an era when it was possible to go to a valley in the South Island and tramp in the area for weeks and have the entire place to yourself. Part of me is deeply attached to that.
NZ and Australia have a specific problem in that we are successful and well run nations that many people like to visit and migrate to. Managing that is a privilege of a problem really.
@Roblogic, yep, as soon as you start with the physical world (the environment) the whole thing looks completely different.
We're also exporting the remaining bank of our soil minerals etc via milk powder. And building housing on some of our best food growing land, because we're so fucking stupid that we think food is something that we can always buy (and so stupid to think that the housing crisis can be solved by having neoliberal developers build lots of houses)
Thank-you weka & Redlogix for the informative replies 🙂
"who are on an unsustainable growth trajectory."
I would phrase it more like "who are joining the 'first' world on an unsustainable growth trajectory'.
One child policy as a starting point is likely to cause problems, because in order for it to work in sustainability terms in a meaningful timeframe you'd have to enforce it, and that's going to play into the rising political authoritarianism. I also think that women would be disproportionately negatively affected. And you need lots of other legislation in place to prevent things like prioritising male foetuses.
My preference is to centre the discussion on ecology, and what developed countries should do. We cannot expect poor nations to not aspire to our standard of living. So if NZ were to look at how we could actually be sustainable, and then what population we could sustain within that, we can then look at our standard of living/consumption and where to position it. We can also do that in the context of our refugee policy, and our immigration settings (maybe we have less babies and allow more refugees on humanitarian grounds).
The big thing there that isn't being done is the auditing of what regenerative economy would look like in NZ. We do however know that we are well into overshoot, and are basically strip mining other ecologies and cultures to support our lifestyles. Lefties sure don't want to talk about that, not the liberals nor the class analysis crowd. For some reason that I don't understand, simple, applied physics goes out the window and people seem to think there are unlimited resources and space. Or they have this vague idea that there is still plenty available despite all the research show there isn't. I guess this is a very strong socialisation of the western mind.
I should do a post on this 🙂
A neocon would of course attempt to divide and rule while accusing others of it.
Trump vs deep state, ongoing saga: ""There's a bureaucracy out there. And there's a lot of people in that bureaucracy who think that they got elected president, not Donald J. Trump," Navarro said… we've had tremendous problems with, you know, some people call it the 'deep state.' I think that's apt."" https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/china-responsible-us-economy-trump-economic-adviser/story?id=70723322
That's Trump's director of the Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy, speaking today. So the rebel thesis remains valid.
He must be talking about Ponce, Pompedoodoo et al Den, though they appear to believe they were annointed, not elected.
Nope, them are in Trump's cabinet. He described people in the bureaucracy as if they were actual bureaucrats, note. I know, you were just being disingenius…
He may think he was elected president Den, and so can spout any old shit that takes his fancy. He may be enraged that the virus wasn't let loose to lay waste his master's foes.
Good interview here on the recent final unravelling of Russiagate, of course the hard core conspiracy theorists out there will keep spinning their, well…conspiracy theories, but to all other thinking and sane citizens, Russiagate can now be consigned to history as one of the most odious large scale public manipulations in recent history, certainly rivaling in scale and scope anything that China has managed to pull off on it's own highly repressed citizens….just shows what can be achieved when you have a willing and compliant press acting on your behalf.
I think even Chomsky couldn't have envisioned the incredible scale along with such unquestioning and obedient buy in from the MSM and liberal intellectuals.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TgqaEBw9Ev0&t=69s
I guess Chump and Pooty have just been shooting the breeze all this time.
Just a headline I saw on Stuff, about new beneficiary parents saying they will be sending their kids to school hungry coz the benefit ain't enough, well I say "then you shouldn't have had kids then huh?" (sarc) … I would like to think people get a bit more empathic towards beneficiaries after this, how easy it is to lose your job, how punitive it is, how low the payments are.
I remember years ago they made it you couldn't go on benefit if you lived in places like Golden Bay, did they ever change that? Would like to see rural people, small town people able to get the benefit (just after seeing that Redneck post made me think wonder if they still can't get their benefits).
Not sure if they ever changed it but it was a group of very small places IIRC Blackball was also one where there were zero jobs and zero likely hood of jobs and there was no zeal to fund "lifestylers" to depart the job market forever. On the other hand the consumption footprint would also have been very low.
Until they find employment again and move back up the food chain and all will be forgotten. Hell, some of them will no doubt keep on voting National.
Read the proposal and if you agree sign (and share) the petition
https://greenpeace.nz/z8vq0a
Thanks, been there now, done that. Never a Greenpeace fan, so good to see them doing something credible… 🤩
Signed too.
Likewise.
Anyone who outright rejects a UBI needs to sit in a room with the benefit calculation formulas and process entitlements for five beneficiaries from different situations. Best conversion tool for UBI support ever.
(I still favour a welfare/UBI hybrid that mends WINZ, including the complexity of rate calculation).
I still favour a welfare/UBI hybrid that mends WINZ.
And without any quibble on that general approach … which I broadly agree with … merely doing the dollar value comparison omits the big social value contribution that a UBI brings. All the research so far clearly shows the real positives come from an increased sense of personal worth and agency. From no longer being stigmatised (even when it's self imposed) or looked down on.
Everyone who has had to deal with WINZ long-term tends to reach for the phrase 'soul-destroying'. Well what is the worth of people with 'un-destroyed souls'? Quite a lot I'd imagine.
Where is Simon Bridges now on Australias Covid response 18 new cases .
9 new cases sorry.
He reckons the disease might be worse than the illness.
Hooton reckons we should be grovelling to China.After their failure to contain Covid 19 China needs a check on its totalitarian power.
After their failure to contain Covid 19
Yeah. Because it would have gone down a treat had they refused permission for the German, French, US, Canadian, British, Australian and other government's repatriation flights from Wuhan as the province went into lock-down…
I'm surprised they missed that opportunity to become the darlings of western propaganda. /sarc
"after their failure to contain Covid 19 China needs a check on its totalitarian power."
Bollocks
When you are living with a senior Chinese academic (I can't be more specific for safety reasons) who is telling you first hand about the totalitarian power he is experiencing in his own life … you'd not be quite so quick to blurt out 'bollocks'.
Yeah nah…China, Russia, USA, UK etc etc there are no bloody saints in that lot but you (among many others) want to paint the Chinese government as the black hats..there are no white hats(in reality IMO) if it wasn't for their totalitarian inclinations Wuhan would still be a total clusterfuck rather than a success story.
China is good for entertainment. Not China itself but the entertainment provided by the multi-faceted ever-changing bizarre notions in New Zealanders.
We want to deal with China big time and to sell our goods to them but we don't want to deal with China. We want China to invest in New Zealand but we don't want them coming in here taking us over. We want New Zealand to take a strong position on China's human rights record but we don't want to say anything to upset them. We want to be independent and staunch and principled and stand for what's right but we should be totally deferential and not say anything to piss the Chinese off.
Today I see banner headlines on the Herald site that Matthew Hooton thinks Winston Peters should be sacked over 'Chinese controversy.' I think Peters should immediately take Hooton onto his staff. Hooton could sit in Peters' pocket and tell him what to do and travel all over the world advising on what's right for New Zealand.
Peters could take him out on all appropriate occasions to lick boots or to give Peters a clip around the ear if he dares say anything more than, "Yes Sir (or Ma'am.)
Item on RNZ about the dairy industry needing workers
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/country/415766/dairy-sector-wants-new-zealanders-to-consider-farm-work-as-labour-shortage-looms
I wondered if it was time to reconsider land aggregation and break down some of these big farming operations into family sized units.
As to not being able to get staff – are they their own worse enemy- and are providing conditions so poor that the lure of residency is the only way they can get staff? This looks like a 10 hour day for how many days of the week? Time for overtime and penal rates again? How many of these jobs mean the worker is also dependent on other taxpayer supports like working for family's while the owners pocket the dough
"You might get up a bit earlier at around 5am, but on the other hand my staff go home for an hour at breakfast, an hour at lunch and they're home by 5pm.
In reality the time off very rarely happens especially at calving time.
Yeh be good to hear from the corporate farming sector about how they intend to correct these wider systemic flaws.
But no particular challenge from the news media to the farming lobby in that particular report – just the farming sob story largely verbatim. And the media wonder why they get poor “pass marks”
Farmers have long been given the right to set wage rates at a level that guarantees their profitability. If workers are not available at these rates, they want governments to admit foreign 'gastarbeiter' who will work at these rates. i.e. as capitalists, they seem to have an addiction to violating their own ideological commitment to free markets by enthusiastically intervening in the operation of the labour market. However, this only looks like a violation if you make the mistake of seeing capitalism and markets as the same thing. They aren't. As a locus of exchange, markets long pre-date capitalism – which is more about wealth extraction through ownership of all the 'plumbing' that facilitates production, exchange etc.
COVID potentially disrupts this by turning off the gastarbeiter tap. However in this environment no government is going to be seen jeopardising agriculture, food production, exporting, job creation and economic growth generally. Some other temporary solution will be found – probably via government subsidy to farmers to top up wages.
Yeah I figured Labour wouldn't do anything about farm wages. As far as I can see this problem has got steadily worse over the years since we repealed the land aggregation & settlement act 1920. Most of the family farms still seem to rely on limited labour it's this factory farming crowd doing it. Be interested to know how many of these have come in with an OIO exemption because they were going to create well paying jobs you know! Maybe some of these farms need to invest in robiotic milking so that they can provide well paying jobs.
You can't just confiscate a local's visa if s/he gets uppity.
Some I know was worked as a milker for a variety of farm owners, and they all were ratbags. For one, the house he got was literally full of mould. It was even growing the carpet. The next one, he could hardly do any thing right for him, always carrying on about how useless he was (though the house was a bit better). The next one let him go before the 90-day trial was up.
Not all farmers are like that, I will admit, but workers should really do a little due diligence before taking up farming.
It came from Alien Reptile Species Shifters, fuck, everybody knows that!.
Nah it was the reverse vampires I'm telling you
TV3 (Newshub) has a poll out at 6 pm. They're already talking it up bigly but that's happened before, something "sensational" turns out to be a couple of percentage points.
We'll see.
Saw a Facebook post with "some random numbers", 42, 32, 12, 4, 4, 2, 1, 1…
Oh crap.
If National are in the lead I will be disappointed, but not suprised.
Surprised? Flabbergasted more like.
A series of surveys during lockdown showed 80+% support for what the gov't has done. They weren't TV polls, so were largely overlooked. But they were consistent.
Of course National were not going to be in the lead, that would be pessimism way beyond reason.
Farrar watch:
Special post at 4:07pm so outside his regular posting slots. He highlights the bump in positive polling for leaders during a crisis, whether they have done a good job or not.
This preempts the Newshub poll tonight either to:
a) attempt to dampen any positive polling for Ardern and the government parties by saying all leaders get a bump or,
b) to set the scene for subsequent crowing if Ardern and the government parties don't poll better than other leaders who have mismanaged Covid-19 response resulting in horrific loss of life.
Farrar has been careful to put the numbers of recent poll bumps for Trump, Boris and Morrison more than once, and even Andrew Cuomo. If JA doesn't reach these numbers or only achieves modestly well against them he will go to town.
The post is so specific one wonders if he has been leaked the poll (highly likely given it is by Mediaworks), and is running his attack lines before it comes out. Incredibly dishonest if that is the case and he hasn't disclosed it.
Watch this space.
He is always "leaked" the poll. The reason we see party leaders on the news is that they have given those interviews earlier in the day. Naturally the leaders talk to their advisers.
Nothing to do with Mediaworks, it happens every time there's a poll.
Are you saying David Farrar is an advisor to Simon Bridges?
I hope that interest is declared in the proper fashion.
The above should have turned up in the conspiracy thread.
But seriously, evidence that bat viruses are anywhere, just look at the case of Steve Gurney the great Coast-to Coast athlete. On an event in SE Asia , Borneo I think) part of the run went through a cave filled with bats and Steve came very close to dying, was in a coma for quite a time and took a few years to recover. It was ascertained that his problem was contacted from a bat virus or suchlike.,
I would have thought our useless parroting media may have tried to get his view on our current situation.
Anybody asked Luxie what he rickns on the Air NZ refund issue? Has he asked not to be asked?
Hey checkpoint, aren't ppl in church in close proximity to other ppl for much longer than ppl in malls?
Slick's down to 4.5 and I feel no sympathy. What is wrong with me?
Labour: 56
National: 30
Greens 5
Yeah baby, one party state.
Great in one sense (i.e. a hope for a more economically equitable future), but the Left is just as capable of being arseholes as the Right. So it's not particularly awesome for democracy.
Police are making threatening posts about "hate crimes", a concept which has no legal basis in NZ. Churches still can't hold Sunday services, but shopping malls and schools are a free-for-all.
This is a potentially chilling moment
Nobody with an ounce of sense thinks Labour will get 56% on election day. I wouldn't have been surprised if they were 60+ in this poll, and yet I won't be surprised if they need a support party to govern after the election. Let's hope it's the Greens.
Again, National never had the numbers in Parliament to govern alone. But in polls between elections, they had it dozens of times.
A free for all? Really?
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/05/newshub-reid-research-poll-jacinda-ardern-goes-stratospheric-simon-bridges-is-annihilated.html
Congratulations Jacinda. Your extraordinary hard work and superb leadership has been recognised and rewarded.
Green support still holding up, as previously discussed. Labour's numbers aren't unprecedented. National hit 60 under Key – but crucially, they got there by cannibalising.
Staying above 5% is a remarkable result for a near invisible party in a crisis, with their supporters making a clear Ardern/Labour distinction. Good on them.
Pompous Prince Shane may have to present Surpydur Tally with a trawler complete with undocumented crew on national tv if this keeps up.
If there's any enterprising medicinal cannabis operation who wants to go all in for expansion, here's the country's very last tobacco factory up for sale in Petone:
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2005/S00406/imperial-tobacco-premises-on-prime-petone-site-for-sale.htm
I think think the requirements for a medicinal cannabis manufacturing plant and a tobacco factory would be quite different.
Private contractors strike.
https://twitter.com/NoahShachtman/status/1262187628075585536
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1262187628075585536.html
A shocking report suggesting that the coronavirus was “release[d from] the Wuhan Institute of Virology” in China is now circulating in U.S. military and intelligence circles and on Capitol Hill. But there’s a critical flaw in the report, a Daily Beast analysis reveals: Some of its most seemingly persuasive evidence is false—provably false.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/pentagon-contractors-report-on-wuhan-lab-origins-of-coronavirus-is-bogus
I'm reminded of the extremely amateurish attempt by Trump to alter a weather map to make it look like a cat. 5 cyclone was going to hit Alabama because he had previously claimed Alabama was going to be hit (can't read a weather map) and couldn't bear to be proved wrong.
This blog is beautiful foot-notery. Why Parliament is often distressing points of order. Semantics matter.
In my lifelong arguments with my brothers I expect in later years we put aside getting it over one another and self-govern enough to go to the essential. What matters most. Lest ye be captured in pig muck up to your neck.
Climate change and the neediest in my book matter most.
Climate Change does not vote and the neediest tend to stay at home and not vote either.
One option is to vote for avoiding CC disaster and economic and social upheaval and against inequality and social injustice, for example.
Another option is to vote for growth, gains, increases in GDP and wages, possible Tax cuts, open borders with Free Trade and mass tourism, for example.
Which one do you think is the more likely vote winner?