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Open mike 21/01/2021

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, January 21st, 2021 - 82 comments
Categories: open mike - Tags:

Open mike is your post.

For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Step up to the mike …

82 comments on “Open mike 21/01/2021 ”

  1. Andre 1

    Ding dong, Darth Drumpf is gone.

  2. dv 2

    And now the lawsuits begin.

    It will be interesting to see if Trump can get any lawyers to represent him, after his treatment of Guilini, and if any reputable firm would take him on with the probable ensuing reputational damage,

  3. aom 3

    In full agreement with John Bishop. A nasty shock to start the day with!!!

    • Not sure if anybody should take any notice of John Bishop given his involvement in the Taxpayer's Union, that well known far-right mob.

      https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/tags/john_bishop

      The article will be part of a concerted campaign to get National back into power. Remember them-the party who caused the housing and poverty crisis in the first place?

      • tc 3.1.1

        Nice to see Stuff place his association with National under the piece. Granny never bothers explaining Tawdrey Young's associations with national, no surprises there.

    • Treetop 3.2

      Being too generous to property investors is just hiking up housing prices. First home buyers are finding it difficult to get on the property ladder. People are requiring mental health services because of homelessness and hospital care because of unhealthy homes. The government need to build homes instead of having to find the money to fix the problems which homelessness and poor housing cause. A lot of money needs to be printed or redirected into affordable housing.

      Ardern has ideas, her planning and the implementation of the idea needs to be put into action when the idea is a good solution to the problem.

    • Sacha 3.3

      In full agreement with John Bishop. A nasty shock to start the day with!

      Even a stopped cock, etc..

      • gsays 3.3.1

        The rumour was, as a young fella in the army, that stop cock was put in the food served at the mess. Ya know, to stop unwanted distractions…Potassium Bromide, my unreliable memory tells me.

  4. Ad 4

    I'm looking forward to pretty concrete plans coming out of the Labour caucus in Nelson today. The new public housing areas are going to be a good start. But let's see more.

    • Rosemary McDonald 4.1

      Do you think, perhaps, that if Labour were to hold their Caucus somewhere around Baird's Road in South Auckland or maybe Poet's Corner in Hamilton they'd have a better idea of how urgent the housing issues are? Instead of Nelson…head up North…getting up early in the morning to catch the homeless as they vacate the park benches and bus shelters before the 'real' people begin their day.

      They could have the best of both worlds…poncy hotel in downtown Tauranga with a side trip of reality as the indigent are rooted from their waterfront digs as the sun comes up.

      • Ad 4.1.1

        No.

        They are clear about where the needs are, and announced the development areas today.

        They are: Napier-Hastings, Hamilton, Wanganui, Whangarei, and a few more. These are specific developments delivering several thousand dwellings in total

  5. francesca 5

    I agree with John Bishop

    The Labour govt needs to unapologetically roll up its sleeves and get to work

    But the alternative ??

    Can't see myself ever voting National , and The Greens(I'm a member) need to step up a bit more loudly

    How much longer can we hope for the change that never comes?

    Its not even incremental improvement , we're getting worse outcomes for housing, poverty and climate disaster as time goes on

    • Ad 5.1

      The alternative is: any other country in the world except Australia.

      Even Denmark is screwed for 2021.

    • sumsuch 5.2

      If these two twits can't feel the blood in my eyes at the horror of our housing situation in Gisborne I know them for the Blairites they are.

      Speak, carry on their comfortable lives, can't do … a shit.

      There is a whole rank of social democrats in their 50s up who know what to do but politics has left them out. The switcheroo can come though.

  6. KSaysHi 6

    Finally, some murmurings on housing. I'll believe it when I see it.

  7. Adrian 7

    If there are many thousands more homeless now where were they a few years ago? Were they excluded from the statistics under some disqualifying pretext, which would be my guess. But where were they living, there seems to be a disconnect ( hate that word ) as surely 5000houses or so have not burnt down? Even if low housing mortgage rates, which we have been dreaming of having for years are responsible for more ownership surely new owners must have left somewhere?

    • Gabby 7.1

      Well, how many are owned by foreigners and only occupied when their owners are here?

      • mac1 7.1.1

        A total of 196,506 homes were left unoccupied across the country at the 2018 census, according to Stats NZ. The figure includes homes with no current occupants, unoccupied properties being renovated, baches, and holiday homes.

        200k empty 'ghost' houses: Why and what would … – Stuff.co.nz

        http://www.stuff.co.nz › life-style › homed › 200k-empty-ghost…

        One solution, from the web.

        In the Spanish region of Catalonia, whose capital is Barcelona, municipalities have been permitted to take over vacant properties since 2016. For this, the apartments have to be empty for more than two years. The cities can then start to rent them as public units at affordable prices for a period of ten years at most.Jul 22, 2020

        Barcelona will take over empty apartments as affordable …

  8. Pat 8

    A very succinct analysis of the implications of NZs mortgage debt.

    https://www.interest.co.nz/property/108685/once-threat-covid-recedes-we-will-need-tackle-enormous-debt-mountain-thats-propping

    "So there is no shortage of tools the Government could use to start bulldozing down the mortgage debt mountain and bringing the housing market it supports back to affordable levels.

    It’s a question of whether the Government has the political will to do so and the guts to see it through"

    • Tricledrown 8.1

      Pat taking the worst case scenario Innes used the floating interst rates where fixed interest rates were 2% lower.

      Scaremongering the actual impact on the economy is minuscule a few $100 million.

      The chances of interest rates going up by anything significant in the next 5 years are very remote indeed.

      The positives of high prices in houses is that more houses are being built old houses upgraded.

      With 45'000 new permits the housing crises will be solved if that level can be maintained.

      • Pat 8.1.1

        Are you denying the fact that fixed rate is the choice of around 80% of mortgages in NZ, with a 2 year fixed term the most common?…he hasnt cherry picked anything.nor is there any scaremongering merely simple arithmetic.

        As to whether interest rates increase in the next few years there are several economists suggesting exactly that, so his possit is not out of left field.

        "The positives of high prices in houses is more houses are being built"…..pardon?, are you serious…even if they were (which they have not been) the problem is the price and the subsequent level of debt (and servicing) require in gthe long run to purchase them….as earlier posts have shown (200.000 empty houses) there is no shortage of housing but a shortage of "affordable housing".

        Are you advising the government?…it may explain a few things.

        • Incognito 8.1.1.1

          Are you advising the government?…it may explain a few things.

          Dunno about that but I do know that Tricledrown never replies to replies to their comments, never reads Moderation notes, and basically does not engage in debate here in any meaningful way. In other words, they are a spray-and-walk-away troll. They don’t even realise it when they are banned and happily keep submitting comments being blissfully unaware and oblivious to the fact that their comments are not appearing in the front-end 🙁

          • Pat 8.1.1.1.1

            Thank you…I confess I hadnt noticed the form

          • Anne 8.1.1.1.2

            Not arguing about ‘trickledrown’ who does seem a law unto him/herself, but sometimes I don't reply either. It's not deliberate but we all have other things to do and I don't always get back to TS until the next day or so by which time its usually too late. I'm sure that would apply to many people who comment here.

  9. Treetop 9

    A person buys an investment property in the last 12 months and the rent goes up to pay the bank.

    Is this a good investment?

    Who is buying an investment property now?

    I doubt it would be first time property investors.

    The government need to introduce a new special needs grant SNG as the accommodation supplement AS and temporary additional support TAS payment for rent is not enough.

    The more the government increase the AS and TAS the greedier the landlord becomes and the poorer the housing conditions become because people can only afford slum housing.

    A mass government housing build is required 20,000 minimum as people are facing high stress in low cost private rental.

    • Tricledrown 9.1

      Some one buying an investment property now is not making any money on the rental return and it would not cover mortgage payments let alone rates insurance or the big one maintenance.

      The latest figures show an increase in first home buyers.

      • Jimmy 9.1.1

        Interest rates have never been cheaper. If they are going interest only at a fixed rate they could make money. However, most used to be negative geared, though the losses are now ring fenced.

    • mikesh 9.2

      If he has to increase the rent to pay the mortgage then, on the face of it, it looks like an unsound investment; unless the rent was well below the going rate originally. The tenant should not be expected to pay the landlord's mortgage.

      We badly need rent control.

      • Treetop 9.2.1

        The tenant should not be expected to pay the landlord's mortgage.

        Put so well what is happening to investment properties. Rent control is required because the banks are loaning to those who need to fleece the tenants.

    • bwaghorn 9.3

      Subsidizing rent was a stupid idea . Cut all subsidies now force land lords to wear it or get out .

      Subsidies just support landlords mortgages.

      • Treetop 9.3.1

        Who should force landlords the government or the bank or both?

        I can see why people need subsidies to pay the rent. I cannot see why landlords need to raise the rent to pay the bank for an investment property they cannot afford.

        Landlords get a good return when they sell. This is why people are buying an investment property.

        • mikesh 9.3.1.1

          If subsidies were not being paid then many tenants would not be able to afford the rent being asked. However, in that case, landlords may have difficulty finding tenants with sufficient incomes, and rents may fall.

  10. Incognito 10

    NCEA results will be released today.

  11. Cricklewood 11

    Ive been working near the Pullman, from what ive seen the quarantine facilities are not secure at all. When the area for fresh air is on a busy intersection where those in isolation can chat with freinds through the security fence… its a disaster waiting to happen.

    • Tricledrown 11.1

      Crinkle wood there is always room for improvement no country can claim to have all their bases covered like we have seen in Australia.

      With more variants developing even variants that could be immune to vaccination 'also vaccine availability 'vaccines length of protection.

      It looks like we could be in for the long haul and just accept this is the new normal.

      • Cricklewood 11.1.1

        Sure, but with a more contagious variant here wouldnt you want to make sure there is no face to face contact between those in managed isolation and those outside living in the 'new normal'

    • Treetop 11.2

      Quarantine as in having Covid like at Jet Park?

      There would also be a risk if an object was passed to the outside.

      Do you know if they have fence visiting hours as using a cell is not enough for some?

  12. Tiger Mountain 12

    This Govt. could impose an immediate Rent Freeze with no warning, until there are enough public houses and apartments. Rents should be set at an actual 25% of income max. for State Tenants anyway, and benefits massively raised.

    Activists and homeless need to start entering and occupying empty houses from one end of the country to the other. Bach? oh sorry, no one was home…speculators have to be encouraged to “diversify” somehow if the Govt. will not go there.

    • Adrian Thornton 12.1

      +1 and I know a lot of people who would support this 100%..including a few home owners as well, contrary to popular belief.

    • Treetop 12.3

      I once dated someone who had a bach around Red Rocks in Wellington. It was great to fish and the sunsets were amazing. The place had a bath tub with a direct view of the ocean and an oven, those were the best days.

    • alwyn 12.4

      There is quite a nice house in Wellington that is almost always empty. It should be in pretty good condition as they have just spent about $3 million on an upgrade if the rumour mill is to be believed.

      Usually has one person living there for about 3 nights a week, for about 9 months/year. Address is 260 Tinakori Road. Move in and occupy it. I'm sure you will be welcome

  13. Ad 13

    Are the rumours correct that the Cabinet paper going up from Minister Mahuta is proposing just 3 water entities to run the entire country? This looks like a nice deep political alliance between Mauhta and Parker on both regulatory and institutional fields.

  14. gsays 14

    The university tube's logarithm made me aware of this.

    There is a wee sales spiel for a few minutes, but the vibe is great.

    In 20 minutes, it ticks lots of boxes.

    Regenerative agish, something lots of individuals can do, hands on, soil building, empowerment in the face of CC, expaining why wildfires are a good thing.

  15. Herodotus 15

    "And she said the Government would leave "no stone unturned" in its plans to fix the housing market – a market that has seen 20 per cent year-on-year price inflation."

    So a CGT is now being examined to be implemented ?? Otherwise The Government is NOT leaving stones unturned. Perhaps our PM should not play with words 🤥. and give a false impression.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/prime-minister-jacinda-ardern-puts-fixing-housing-crisis-at-the-top-of-her-political-agenda/RDYHSCQPIRY7Z5R4ZWWATOO6AU

  16. Pat 16

    This is getting bloody ridiculous

    "Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has mapped out a timeline for when the public can expect new announcements from the government on housing."

    An announcement about an announcement…that'll make a difference, FFS

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/434929/prime-minister-jacinda-ardern-details-timeline-for-housing-annoucements

    • Nic the NZer 16.1

      Which housing crisis? The shortage of state houses one (which they can address and have made a start on) or the middle class price / ownership one which I don't think they are willing to do what it takes (or really anyone wants them to).

      Unfortunately Labour has conflated these before (e.g with the 'affordable' 600k homes) but which crisis do you expect them to address?

      • Pat 16.1.1

        Fail to see any 'conflation' of the two with the Kiwibuild fiasco.

        If you wish to break it into sectors you can add private rentals to the mix as well.

        The entire market is in crisis (with the possible exception of the luxury market) and interconnected. After 4 years the re-announcement of a modest state housing programme that falls far short of state housing levels of even the 1990s may be considered 'addressing' in your book, it isnt even close in mine.

        The deliberate fuelling of the residential property market bubble they have clearly shown they are unwilling to address but i fail to see how you conclude no one wants them too…..some clearly do not but substantial numbers obviously do or it would not be considered the dominant issue, not to mention the fact that the goals of this Governments stated social policy are impossible without doing so.

        So 'which crisis' do i expect them to address?…all three

        • Sacha 16.1.1.1

          can add private rentals to the mix as well

          But they didn't. They need to.

        • Nic the NZer 16.1.1.2

          Quite a big ask then. I never thought that kiwibuild would address house prices and I don't think Labour believed it would either.

          I have seen them end the policy of using Housing New Zealand as a nice earner (by selling off the stock, sometimes emptying them using meth testing scams) and that Kiwibuild has basically started growing that stock again. Obviously accomodating people, who will continually need provided housing, is quite a different problem to significantly reducing house prices. But as I thought at the time they talked up Kiwibuild as addressing the later while it could only really address the former. In politics when you make promises you can't deliver on then moving the goal posts (e.g the definition of affordable) is the next strategy you often use.

          I don't think the public really wants house prices to suddenly shrink. Ignoring the lack of mechanism imagine if prices fell by 30% what happens? Many new owners are suddenly under water. At this point the banks put more pressure on the reduce debt and the savings behaviour tips the economy towards recession. If the government doesn't respond with spending much more strongly than 2010 then fresh batches of unemployed ultimately pay the price for the housing price adjustment. Ardern has now said multiple times this is not something she wants to see happen. As far as I have seen people who say they want a large fall in prices don't understand what this implies, or acknowledge this problem with that scenario but I assume they don't want this outcome (and they didn't understand likely consequences) not that they thought it was equitable.

          • Sacha 16.1.1.2.1

            Kiwibuild was the part of the overall plan intended to shift private developers towards cheaper builds. Relied too much on them not behaving in their own commercial interests. 'Naive' is being polite.

            Building state houses was always a separate part of the same overall plan, incredibly badly communicated by that guy who lost his job over it.

            The biggest economic problem with cutting house prices is that too many of NZ's small businesses are also secured against them by our lazy banks.

          • Pat 16.1.1.2.2

            Am well aware of the potential fall out from a sudden price correction of any significance however the current situation is both unsustainable and will correct at some point in any case…..a serious attempt to wind back the price to income ratios does not necessitate a collapse though that risk exists….the current Gov. position is contrary to such…i.e. 'moderated price growth'

            The economy can be stimulated (and employment preserved) through other mechanisms should the Government so choose and underwater mortgages (for owner occupiers) can be removed from the banks balance sheets as has been done before….its not as if we dont have alternative areas that need the investment.

            The current situation simply highlights the dearth of any other strategy despite all the time they have had to develop such and also is a one way trip as no central bank has any idea how to unwind what was supposed to be a temporary support measure without causing what they are charged with avoiding and why the RBNZ has constantly called for the fiscal arm to play its role….our current fiscal arm appears bereft of such capability.

            Meanwhile increasing numbers of households are losing the wherewithal to contribute to the economy that will cost us in the medium/long term….something both Robertson and Ardern claimed they would avoid.

            • Nic the NZer 16.1.1.2.2.1

              I agree a price correction while dealing with the fall out would be acceptable.

              Unfortunately Labour has shown only interest in avoiding the price correction, while the comment above suggests some people don't seem to think there will be a negative fall out from a price correction (and don't address mitigation).

      • alwyn 16.1.2

        "but which crisis do you expect them to address".

        I am a realist. I don't expect them to address any of the problems relating to housing. They haven't done anything significant in the first 3 years and I really don't expect to see any real improvement in such numbers as the number of of families on the waiting list has risen from 5844 in September 2017 to 22,409 in November 2020.

        https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/new-zealands-public-housing-crisis-waiting-list-grows-nearly-1000-in-two-months/UFYUW4QAUXIYZARA2ASC2L56VY/

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