Open mike 22/09/2014

Written By: - Date published: 6:45 am, September 22nd, 2014 - 311 comments
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openmikeOpen mike is your post.

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Step up to the mike …

311 comments on “Open mike 22/09/2014”

  1. mickysavage 1

    Dear Media:

    1. The last labour leadership campaign was not a bitter event. Members thought it was great and very successful and achieved a lot of good for the party.

    2. How about you stop using “confidential sources” within Labour’s caucus. Don’t quote them unless they are brave enough to publicly put their names to their comments.

    • Gosman 1.1

      Why would they do that given people like juicy inside gossip and members of the Labour party are more than willing to provide it to them?

    • cricklewood 1.2

      1, Im sure some elements within caucus were bitter they didn’t get their pick.

      2, To silence the “confidential sources” either caucus will have to get their pick for leader or dissenters need to be removed/retired if they cant accept the new process and fall in behind the democratic choice of the party.
      Dont blame the media for reporting the scuttlebutt, yesterday made it pretty clear who those “confidential sources” are aligned with.

      • The Lone Haranguer 1.2.1

        You cant remove/retire the dissenters Cricklewood, they just got three more years from their electorates.

        And them winning locked out the fresh meat on the List.

        For the next three years, Labour is going to have to milk the cows it has in its herd.

        • cricklewood 1.2.1.1

          That’s kind of my point, the only real option is to give caucus it’s pick for leader… otherwise the divisions continue I just can’t see the old guard falling in behind Cunliffe for 3 more years.

          • Hami Shearlie 1.2.1.1.1

            And I can’t see all the new members who signed up staying put, if there is another leadership wrangle – they signed up because they believe that David Cunliffe is the best man for the job! He is head and shoulders above the rest at debating and he looks very statesmanlike! And he can actually do very well in in-depth interviews and stand-ups with the Press Gallery – so watch the membership dwindle if he is forced out – no-one could become Prime Minister after only 11 months of leadership! The ABC group is to blame – if they had let Cunliffe become leader straight after Goff, I think things may have been very different. How long did it take for Helen Clark to become Prime Minister after gaining the leadership – way more than 11 months – and she turned out to be a wonderful Prime Minister!

            • cricklewood 1.2.1.1.1.1

              Hence the on going difficulty… It’s not like the ABC club is going to be shifted on in fact it may have strengthened. It’s not like you can force a retirement and by-election in somewhere like Hutt South where there is a real chance a Labour candidate wouldn’t win.
              Judging by party vote percentages it could be an untenable risk in a few seats .

            • martin 1.2.1.1.1.2

              Why cant you see that the country hates him too. even half of labour voters dont want him as PM. Your opinion is whats given labour its worst result since 1920s. Own it

            • Treetop 1.2.1.1.1.3

              +1@1.2.1.1.1

          • Draco T Bastard 1.2.1.1.2

            And that would mean Labour losing its electoral support.

            Not that I’m against that. Labour have become too tainted by the failed neo-liberal economics.

            • greywarbler 1.2.1.1.2.1

              The milk of human kindness that drove Labour initially has curdled. A good cook might be able to use it as buttermilk and turn out something really good from the changed ingredient.

              The knowledgable cooks in Labour had better do a Gordon Ramsay and shoulder their way to the bench, and sack the failed old mob or the restaurant at the end of the universe will fold and collapse.

    • tc 1.3

      Yes it started election night with Hooten calling for DC and MC to go, the 3 musketeers (dpf, cs and mh) will run hard with this, pagani will probably join in to ensure her media sinecures remain in place.

      DIrty politics just got a 3 year extension, granny, tvnz etc will stick to the script. This sort of crap stops by labour caucus calling the media on it or the leakers get the boot, either way this disunity or its perception needs to be sorted pronto.

    • Anne 1.4

      And another load of confused logic from Josie Pagani:

      http://pundit.co.nz/content/labour-must-change

      Is it possible to find out if this woman is even a member of the Labour Party? I know she was once but I suspect she isn’t any more.

      • mickysavage 1.4.1

        I saw her at the New Lynn campaign HQ during the campaign when she turned up to give Kelvin Davis a hand.

        I really want to give her analysis a fisk. She does not mention the overwhelming resources National had, the wonders of things like front page Rugby News photo ops, Christchurch advertising paid by the corporates.

        She keeps saying “move right” but I do not know which policy or policies she considers to be left wing.

        Her complaints about Moira Coatesworth and Tim Barnett are ludicrous. They are both very dedicated decent people. I presume she wants to have them replaced by right wingers.

        Another three years of her representing my views is not something I wish to contemplate …

        • swordfish 1.4.1.1

          She’s a key member of the extra-Parliamentary wing of the ABCs, as far as I’m concerned. Phil Quin being another leading member. A lot of white-anting of Cunliffe throughout the last 6 months and they’ve clearly been developing a post-Election Turn Right narrative for a while now.

          The nonsense that Labour were rising under Shearer and immediately fell under Cunliffe is part and parcel. Reality: the Party was flatlining under Shearer and immediately rose under Cunliffe (to a 35% average in 3 of the last 4 months of 2013). Then, of course, the feeble compromise with the ABCs followed by the MSM Dirty Politics onslaught.

          • mickysavage 1.4.1.1.1

            Yep I have been compiling a list of leaks from within Labour’s caucus for quite a while and it is really distressing. It is persistent and it is damaging and it has been going on for a while. Labour really needs to sort this out. Something you never read is a story about National’s caucus based on “confidential sources”.

            • Karen 1.4.1.1.1.1

              Remember Pagani is a mate of Cameron Slater.

              There is a right wing faction within the Labour Party that will be using every media source they can to push the party rightwards. I would put money on Quinn being the source for the SST story about Cunliffe’s skiing holiday. But he is obviously working with Pagani, Leggot, Cosgrove, etc in an orchestrated attempt to reinstate Shearer and push Labour rightwards. The problem is there are still too many right wingers in the Labour caucus so nothing will change. We can expect more leaks, more media manipulation and Slater will be loving every moment.

              Dirty politics is alive and well.

              • Granted

                You call it dirty politics, but seem to be focused on shooting the messenger.

                • Karen

                  It is the message that Labour should abandon its roots and move rightwards that I am opposed to. I have listed some of the people that are promoting that shift, and referred to the method they have employed.

            • karol 1.4.1.1.1.2

              And so the battle within Labour continues. No wonder they can’t get any traction. * head desk *

              • Tracey

                Palm… Head

                Pagani is basically saying adopt national policies and you can beat key. I hope she isnt paid for this stuff.

                Hooton is becoming far worse imo than slater. Slater doesnt pretend to be nice or even handed.

                Labour and every other left leaning party needs to issue statements regularly refuting that pagani or anyone else represents their views.

                Hoots, farrar and slater are paid directly, or indirectly by the right to have cosy views about the right. Who is paid to have that role in the media for the left?

                • politikiwi

                  I had to laugh when Hooton was on RNZ talking about how John Key has his emotions totally under control and how important that was.

                  I would suggest it’s probably because he doesn’t really feel emotion, he only mimics it. Some consider that a trait of psychopathy, which is a remarkably common condition among Wall Street bankers.

                  You never know…

                • Rodel

                  Tracey – Your statement”
                  “Labour and every other left leaning party needs to issue statements regularly refuting that pagani or anyone else represents their views.”

                  Absolutely disown Pagini. It is ridiculous that she is considered as a spokesperson even by the media puppets.

            • Anne 1.4.1.1.1.3

              Yep I have been compiling a list of leaks from within Labour’s caucus for quite a while…

              I hope that list is on it’s way to Caucus as we speak. Nothing better than to confront the culprits directly in front of their peers. Doesn’t matter who they are or what ‘seniority’ they may have in Caucus. This pussy footing around with them is a major part of the problem.

              It’s face to face time!

          • phillip ure 1.4.1.1.2

            “..Reality: the Party was flatlining under Shearer and immediately rose under Cunliffe (to a 35% average in 3 of the last 4 months of 2013)..”

            ..and funny story…!

            ..that was when cunnliffe was talking all bolshie/waving red flags/striding thru the streets of herne bay whistling the internationale…..

            ..that surge up in the polls..

            ..when cunnliffe was promising transformative-polices..

            ..promising to ‘end the shame of poverty’..and other such stirring words..

            ..(i wonder how the go-right!-narrative of the paganis et.al will explain/wave that one away..eh..?..labour polling highest..when the most ‘left’..

            ..doesn’t just that irrefutable-fact show up that right narrative as the pile of steaming horseshit that it is..?..surely..?

            ..but anyway..as it turns out..cunnliffe lost the policy-battles with the rightwing..the goffs etc..

            ..and those red-promises were shown in reality to have just been all hot air..

            ..to have been classic over-promise/under-delivery..

            ..and subsequently..the poll-slump started..

            ..(and just accelerated by parker popping up every now and then..with his don-quixote-tipping-at-windmills policy of raising the pension-age..

            ..and after each appearance..the polls slumped yet again..)

            ..looking at it from a left/right perspective..and on the evidence of that poll surge then slump..

            …it becomes clear that go right directive..for the future for labour..

            ..really is the road to nowhere..

            .

            • phillip ure 1.4.1.1.2.1

              shearer on nat-rad,,,spouting utter waffling-shite…urging a move to the right..

              ..and really sticking the boot into cunnliffe…

              • cricklewood

                To play devils advocate, if a move to the left is what the people want, why was the vote for the Greens and Internet Mana so soft and the Right wing vote rock solid? A lot of effort went into the mobilizing the non vote didn’t achieve a helluva lot did it?

                • “..A lot of effort went into the mobilizing the non vote didn’t achieve a helluva lot did it..”

                  labour had no transformational-policies..

                  ..the right in labour made sure of that..

                  ..that is why the non-voters weren’t mobilised..

                  ..labour had nothing very much for them..

                  • cricklewood

                    So why didn’t they vote Green or Internet Mana?
                    I thought Internet Mana was all about mobilising the missing and youth vote… wasn’t that part of the whole party party thing?

                    • lurgee

                      You have to understand … people voted National because Labour was not left enough. If Labour move further left, then people currently voting National will want to switch Labour.

                      Or, the “missing million” will suddenly show up, even though they’ve sat out the last three elections and don’t seem at all concerned by National’s attack on their well-being. Apparently, they’ve given National nine years to degrade their quality of life, to encourage Labour to move left. Very noble of them, I must say.

                      Such is the thinking of some, hereabouts, anyway.

        • The Lone Haranguer 1.4.1.2

          As a “business owning person of the right” but not a Labour voter, I read what Pagani had to say and it resonates with me. I could join the Labour Party shes describing, and I could do it under David Cunniffe too.

          New Zealand needs Labour to be strong, and New Zealand needs Hone in parliament. Sadly, at this stage we have no sign of either happening.

          • Tracey 1.4.1.2.1

            If you voted right you are already IN a party that she is describing. She is essentially telling labour to be more like national.

            • The Lone Haranguer 1.4.1.2.1.1

              To some extent you are correct Tracey.

              But I dont vote National because I dont see them as a party of principle. I greatly admire Hone Harawira although much of his politics are a long way from mine, because hes a person of passion about what hes doing. You just dont get that from John Key and his team.

              And I liked ACT for much the same reason I like Hone. But they sold out and now have no reasonable justification to exist.

              Even Crazy Colin is passionate about his own brand of politics and policies.

              But back to the guts of the deal – to govern you need a decent chunk of the middle ground electorate and Labour can ether go for that space or they can go left and abdicate the centre to NZFirst and then shmooze Winston after an election. But theres always the risk that he will side with the Nats. So should labour’s destiny be in their hands or in Winstons?

              If Labour want the centre space then they need a more radical left option to keep them honest and to give that part of the electorate somewhere to call their own.

              I know you folk of the left dont want lectures on what you should do, from those on the right, but give me a reason to vote Labour next time. Im not seeing it yet!

          • mickysavage 1.4.1.2.2

            As a business owning person who has had my own business for the past 25 years with some understanding of the English language I read Pagani’s statement and I do not have the foggiest understanding of what she is talking about.

            • Mike 1.4.1.2.2.1

              Herein lies the problem… I had no problem understanding. You should quit along with Cunliffe and let some younger smarter people take the reins then Labour will have a chance.

            • Naki man 1.4.1.2.2.2

              That says a lot more about you than it does about Pagani.

        • Mike 1.4.1.3

          David Shearer has got it right. NZer’s are centrist and will not support left wing policies or strong union influence no matter who is presenting them.
          Labour are destined to remain in the doldrums until they take this message on board. The Conservatives and IMP proved conclusively resources are not so important as policy that resonates with the electorate. To claim that National’s overwhelming resources made the difference is head in the sand stuff.
          You need a decent leader rather than Cunliffe who no-one trusts, but the most charismatic trustworthy person in the world would not be able to sell the garbage socialist, union dominated rhetoric that Labour purported to be policy to the NZ electorate.

        • Murray Olsen 1.4.1.4

          Turning up to help Kelvin Davis doesn’t narrow her party affiliation much. It leaves us with the options Labour, Maori Party, NZ First, and Nactional.

          I read her article. It was awful. She says the nation wants two National parties, with politics turned into a beauty contest. Even though I don’t think we’re far off that situation, to move towards it would be disastrous for the country, and especially the masses.

      • The Lone Haranguer 1.4.2

        And the usual suspects put up their hands again when somebody says “we need to change the leader”.

        But can anyone tell me who should have been leading Labour into the 2014 election?
        If not David Cunliffe, then who:
        Who could have done better?
        Who could have better articulated Labours mixed messages?
        Who could have better stood up to the Blue wave?
        Who could survive the slaughter?

      • Naki man 1.4.3

        There is nothing confused about the logic of Josie Pagani.
        She is a very smart Lefty, some of you guys just don’t learn from your mistakes.
        Labour moved to the left to fight the Greens for the same vote.
        National moved into the gap and swept up the centre left votes.
        Game over, next the knives will be out and Labour will self destruct.

        • mike 1.4.3.1

          Naki Man, exactly right…. Unfortunately Labour will not take it on board but will try and get a different result doing the same old stuff….insanity!

        • millsy 1.4.3.2

          No. We dont want to ban unions and throw the poor on the street, abolish sick leave and American-ize our health system.

          People like you do.

          You will take my paid sick leave when you pry it out of my cold dead hands you river polluting scum.

          And I ever see you try and pollute our river, I will throw you in.

    • Clemgeopin 1.5

      @mickysavage:

      The election result has been very disappointing, depressing and quite unbelievable. It is like a death in the family. In spite of that, thank you micky for your relentless work and admirable effort.

      In my opinion, several things need to happen now for Labour and the left to change people’s perceptions and gain support back.

      [1] Cunliffe has to be firm, very firm, with his caucus. He needs to make it clear that after the coming leadership vote the elected party leader, who ever it is, should be given absolute support in private and in public from every one of the caucus member and that there is no room for any traitors from within.

      [2] Labour should consider revisiting/modifying some controversial policies for them to be widely supported by the public. For example:
      (a) The raising of retirement age: Propose that legislation will not be initiated in the first term after next election but instead public debate/discourse and an indicative referendum will take place during that time. Based on that policy changes will be made in term two.
      (b) CGT (with or without family home) : Same idea for this policy too.

      [3] This third point is not entirely in Labour’s control, but I will state it here anyway:
      Labour should continue with its broad centrist economic and leftist social policies but indicate that it will cooperate with the reasonable environmental policies of the Greens, while the Greens should stick to their environmental green policies and indicate that they will cooperate with the reasonable social/economic policies of Labour.

      [4] Win the huge elderly vote by suitable policies directed at that age group.

      The above arrangements and revisiting of policies will ally real and perceived fears of voters towards Labour. Greens and the left and will work in the left’s favour for a long term. Remember that we need over 50% plus to votes win. Sweet sentiments and wishful thinking does not make that happen. Wisdom and pragmatism does.

    • Treetop 1.6

      I once read that an 18 month – 2 year period is required to implement a goal. Cunnliffe needs another year to fine tune his leadership skills and I hope that he gets the time.

      This morning on RNZ morning report just after 7 am Key paid Cunliffe a compliment, Key said, “David Cunliffe was a tough opponent.” This is a rare occasion that I agree with Key. The media can disagree with Key if they want to.

  2. i don’t think we are blaming dotcom for enough..

    ..flavell has just blamed dotcom for the drop in support of the maori party..

    ..and salmond showed with his stats that labour lost support amongst all groups in society..

    ..and i think we should blame dotcom for that..

    ..and the fact that even in labour electorate-victories/safe-seats..

    ..the national party vote was higher than labour..

    ..and i think we should blame dotcom for that…

    ..and that ‘missing-million’ voters labour were so determined to target..(so they said..the policy-reality was different,.)

    ..they didn’t come out to vote..and just ignored the minstrations of/from labour..

    ..and i think we should blame dotcom for that..

    ..and if dairy prices drop even further..i think we should blame dotcom for that..

    ..and i am just looking out my window..and it’s raining..!

    ..bugger it..!..i’m going to blame dotcom…

    • Jenny 2.1

      McCarthyism for the 21st century

      Witch-hunting the Dotcom-munists

      • Tracey 2.1.1

        I have some sympathy for this view Jenny, cos he partly of his own making but also of others he has been majorly scapegoated.

        His biggests mistakes were under estimating how much energy and money nats would put into playing him and over estimating kiwis sense of privacy and desire for integrity in its govt.

        I still await developments in greenwald releases and the email. Would a guy like dotcom submit an email to a judicial and quasi judicial process if he thought it were fake? Would he have not run his own IT expertise over it first to satisfy himself it weregenuine? I watch the result of the process with interest.

        • phillip ure 2.1.1.1

          factcheck:..i know dotcom is being maligned for his nite of reckoning no-show..

          ..but he did not show his evidence against key that nite..’on legal advice’…

          .and also greenwald is on record as talking dotcom out of saying/doing anything on that..so as not to detract from the spooking-revelations..

          • kenny 2.1.1.1.1

            Correct.

          • Melb 2.1.1.1.2

            What legal advice? That they claimed it was before the privileges committee? What a crock of shit.

            Remember that we have a new Parliament now, and a new privileges complaint will have to be lodged. Now that Hone is out, is there any other MP that will associate themselves with the email and/or Dotcom and make that complaint?

        • greywarbler 2.1.1.2

          @ Tracey
          I think those points about Dotcom are on the nail. But he did make some untimely comments. He would have been better to support and allow the party leaders to make the running.

          But Phillip you are right on for satirically blaming Dotcom for Hone’s loss. Labour was stupid not to allow him to get on. And everyone took a piece out of him. Hone would be a good left person to be representing his area. But no, Labour was scrabbling for all the mana they could accumulate, they wanted everything on the plate instead of trying the Biblical loaves and fishes response, share a little and gain overall.

          edited

        • yeshe 2.1.1.3

          @tracey … how ironic on this monday morning after Key’s re-election that Dotcom remains as the only one who might yet bring him down after all. The High Court will decide on the evidence …

          I’m with you on the email … this isn’t over, no matter how much Key blusters.

          And Greenwald hasn’t finished …

          And WP is very loud in opposition …

        • Clemgeopin 2.1.1.4

          Good points.

          How can it be proved that the email is genuine without corroborative evidence?

          I trust KDM any day over Key.

          • yeshe 2.1.1.4.1

            Hi Clem … well, it got lost in everything else on Moment of Truth Day, but KDC was reported as saying he has a sworn affidavit regarding the email, no more details though .. then his legal advice silenced anything further. And Paul Davison QC did make reference to it that day in court ….

            For sure KDC has checked and proved the authenticity .. he has had it, or something similar for months. He has also posted a $5 million reward .. (and we know even Jason Ede has a price !)

            And yes, with you, I trust KDC any day over Key.

            I trust Paul Davison.

            I have to trust the High Court of NZ.

            We may yet have cause to dance a little.

            link to affidavit claim:

            http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/dotcom-promises-residency-bombshell-6080297

            • yeshe 2.1.1.4.1.1

              Clem .. this is worth a read if you missed it earlier .. Gordon Campbell articulates the truth so clearly including earlier emails.. (and fwiw, the KDC haters could do well to understand the ramifications)

              “As things stand, the US is using the New Zealand legal system as a tool to send someone halfway round the world to face criminal charges without first being able to see the evidence against them. One does not have to like Dotcom to feel deep misgivings about this situation. The email trail is part of the skein of evidence. A non-redacted version of these emails has to be made available to the courts and to the Dotcom defence team, by one means or another. In the meantime, the Crown needs to explain why a redacted version of them wasn’t handed over to Dotcom sooner – given that they could now enable an appeal against some of the court decisions already reached.”

              http://gordoncampbell.scoop.co.nz/2014/07/16/gordon-campbell-on-the-dotcom-emails/

            • yeshe 2.1.1.4.1.2

              correction, sorry .. Paul Davison QC did not refer to that specific email in court last week — he referred to the other emails at issue ( see post below). But Davison QC did speak to the existence of the specific ‘Hollywood’ email outside the court in Akld last Monday.

    • Tracey 2.2

      Flavell might also want to ponder that when maori electorate voters are polled about who they would prefer mp to work with over 60% say labour party but that is NOT a message the mp takes to the electorate.

  3. martin 3

    phillip,
    good points, cant blame dotcom for cunliffe though as i dont think hes a party member

    • martin..here..!..today.!..for just a short time..

      ..you can blame dotcom for whatever you want..

      ..he is now the official election-loss whipping-boy..

      ..pile in..!

      ..whaddayagot..?

      • martin 3.1.1

        ok then, the truth, I blame Dotcom for making Robertson gay

        • phillip ure 3.1.1.1

          i understand the veges in cunnliffes’ garden are dying..

          ..and he is wondering out loud if dotcom sneaked in..late one nite..

          ..and pissed on his vege-garden..

          • tinfoilhat 3.1.1.1.1

            lol

          • The Al1en 3.1.1.1.2

            Well that would do it, being as toxic as kim is.

            • yeshe 3.1.1.1.2.1

              JUST STOP. not funny or clever. simply disparaging for the mere sake of it. c’mon, you are all better than this.

              u r not bullies in a schoolyard == or r u ?

              • r u talking to me..or alien..?

                • yeshe

                  phillip … “all” was what I wrote. Enough already feeding the hatred, please.

                  • u can’t see that i am taking the piss out of the whole blame-dotcom thing..?

                    ..and showing how stupid that meme is..?

                    ..seriously..?

                    ..the alien is serious in his sneers…

                    ..i’m just laughing at the idiots..

                    • yeshe

                      but maybe perpetuating the ugly to laugh at the ‘others’ is the same poison … anyway, that’s my read of it and I usually enjoy your humour very much !

                • The Al1en

                  Me, I think, but it’s okay, I’m done with it now. I’ve system flushed. You never move forward if you’re always looking back, but you pu can go for it and give it a try if you like, knock yourself out bruv. 😆

                  And an apology to Marty and Weka for acting like a knob yesterday.
                  Yep, defeat hurts and I share it with you, no excuses.
                  Ta.

  4. Ad 4

    Can this digital community become the primary means to unite the Greens and Labour into a votable coalition for 2017?

    • BM 4.1

      2020 would be the earliest.
      This is 2002 all over again.

    • weka 4.2

      “Can this digital community become the primary means to unite the Greens and Labour into a votable coalition for 2017?”

      The biggest impediment on the Greens and Labour working together is the right wing within Labour. Labour are hobbled until that gets sorted.

      Remember that just prior to this election it looked like Labour would do a deal with NZF that excluded the GP from cabinet.

      Expect the Greens to continue to work on their policy-based approach and not give ground until good faith is established.

      • Tracey 4.2.1

        Plus 1

        Weka

        My brother changed his party vote back to nats. He sent me a text on sunday am. which he headed

        Prediction

        Nats will focus on good things for environment in next three years to scuttle greens.

        I replied

        How does dismantling rma to favour developers and polluters eradicate the greens.

        No reply yet. I guess he has read the rma plans of nats by now. Also shows he hadnt read them before the election.

        As long as enough within labour see the greens as the enemy the left is in trouble. Dont have to endorse them all the time but dont diss them. Tell the media you dont speak for the greens. That you are open to working with those open to your broad plan. Nats are not constantly asked about act uf and mp policies

  5. Jono 5

    I came so close to calling the Labour HQ number and leaving a ‘FFS!’ Message on the answer phone when I read the headlines at 6.15 this morning. The nerve, to ask us to let them run the country and two days later showing us exactly why they can’t be trusted.

  6. Gosman 6

    I’m curious if some of you lot have accepted your analysis of the general mood of the electorate has been seriously flawed. Do you now acknowledge that you may have lost touch with what the majority of New Zealanders actually think?

    • BM 6.1

      I really don’t think the left really care what the proles think.

      They know they’re right, it’s those bloody stupid voters that are wrong.

    • tc 6.2

      Good point but are they capable of such a rethink with mallard, goff, king etc in the mix.

    • swordfish 6.3

      Gossie: “…majority of New Zealanders…”

      And there I was thinking that the Nats won the support of just 33% of eligible voters.

      • The Lone Haranguer 6.3.1

        Lies, damn lies and statistics aye Swordfish.

        The issue is that 48% of the people who gave a shit, and voted, voted Blue.

        And the blue team knew they wouldnt have to endorse the Conservatives as they would get 45+% of the so called “wasted vote” – it wasnt wasted for National, it was only wasted for the Conservative voters. And I would think that most of the latter group would have the Nats as their back up position.

        The real “wasted vote” was the 1.7% who voted for ALCP and IMP, gifting some 0.8% of the vote to the Nats. I cant see that any voters in IMP or ALCP wanting the Nats as their second choice.

        More dumb voting by the left.

        • Tracey 6.3.1.1

          Epsom, ohariu and tai tokerau show poor voting and leadership by the parties who claimed they wanted nats gone… Labour, Greens and IMP

          • Rosie 6.3.1.1.1

            Tracey, it’s Monday and I’m still fuming about the 2249 votes that went to Tane Woodley when they could have gone to Ginny. Dunne won by 930 votes. Once again (just like 2011) if the Green votes had gone to Labour we would have won and Dunne would be gone.

            It would have been a comfortable win for Ginny had Tane’s votes gone to her. She deserves that, she worked so hard and is the right woman for Ohariu.

            • phillip ure 6.3.1.1.1.1

              @ rosie..

              ..yep..!..dumb as a sack of fucken dooknobs…

              ..those ohariu green voters…

              ..(i hope dunne sends them all a thank-you card..they deserve it..)

              ..i thought the dumbarses had actually got the how to get rid of dunne message..this time..

              ..clearly not..

              • Rosie

                In a post on “Seat Watch: Ohariu” on Saturday, Graeme suggests these Green Voters are not politically engaged. Thinking about it, I can’t help but agree with that.

                They either want Dunne to remain but that is unlikely OR, they just don’t get MMP alongside not fully understanding the events of the last 3 years. “Vote Green just ‘cos” kinda thing. Those of us at PPO were quietly alarmed at the number of people we had asking us how to go about voting. We were surprised at the lack of knowledge folks had about the issues of the electorate and how to use MMP.

                If the Green voters just don’t get it, then the Greens and Labour really have to have a little talk about not standing a Green candidate in the electorate in 2017. Even the local papers only ever framed it as a two candidate contest, Andersen Vs. Dunne.

                Electorate voting Green in Ohariu is a tragic waste

                • if the progressives worked together..(ie..not splitting the votes up and down the country…)

                  ..progressive govts cd be in power forever..

                  ..until that is sorted out..

                  ..we will continue to get results like this..

                  ..the right play mmp like a finely-tuned violin..

                  ..the progressives play it like a kid with their first/new recorder…

                  ..the ironies of this successful ‘playing’ of mmp by the right..given the origins/original opposition to mmp..has not passed me by..

            • halfcrown 6.3.1.1.1.2

              “It would have been a comfortable win for Ginny had Tane’s votes gone to her. She deserves that, she worked so hard and is the right woman for Ohariu.”

              And for the country Rosie, Once AGAIN we have that self seeking useless traitorous bit of shit called Dung again.

              • Rosie

                I guess the flipside of National’s win is that Dunne no longer has a use to Key further than back up support. His importance has diminished.

                Just another 3 more years of being paid a leaders salary for heading a 0.2% party as well as his MP’s salary. 11 terms at the trough really adds up……….

                • bad politics

                  plus he will get his $100,000 a year pension (forever!) when he finally retires. jeez hes done well for himself (as well as those dirty politics accusations).

            • alwyn 6.3.1.1.1.3

              “She deserves that, she worked so hard and is the right woman for Ohariu.”
              Nobody “deserves” to be an MP, just because they work hard or are female.
              The people who live in the electorate deserve to have the MP they want and that is exactly what they got. That is the only criteria that matters.

              • Rosie

                🙄

                Whats female got to do with it? I also say David Cunliffe is the right “man” for the job. Being an MP and serving your constituents is a privilege, a position that one has to earn to deserve. Dunne does nothing. He doesn’t deserve to be where he is.

                Are you still smarting about the Kate Shepard pedestrian crossing signals?

                • alwyn

                  I have no idea why being a “woman” is relevant. I favour the use of words like right person.
                  You were the one who chose to say that she was the “right woman” so perhaps you can tell me why you think it matters?
                  As for your comment that “Dunne does nothing. He doesn’t deserve to be where he is.”, people I know who live in the electorate tell me that he is a superb electorate MP and that he serves the people who live in the electorate very well. That is the main reason that he keeps getting re-elected.
                  You will remember that my complaint about the traffic lights was solely about the cavalier way that our council spent $12,000 on something I think of as spending money for the sake of spending money.

                  • Rosie

                    If he’s so freaking fantastic then why did his majority reduce? I DO live in the electorate and know what people are saying about him. I’ve heard first hand from former Dunne supporters about why they no longer will vote for him. This includes business owners in the area. (because business owners are often viewed in the RW narrative as being so much more important than ordinary people) If you had seen him in action at some of the candidates meetings you would have seen for yourself what a nasty divisive piece of works he is.

                    Many do see him as a self interested sponger and little else. He let a lot of people down with his lack of morals over the GSCB legislation and his vote on asset sales. He ingratiates himself to those he can get votes from, probably those folk you are speaking of. And he gets away with it.

                    I spoke with one woman who told me she votes for him because he helped her get her Mum a hip operation. She told me she doesn’t care about “the bad stuff” he has done. I pointed out to her that it is part of an MP’s role to advocate for their constituents. She had no idea they were meant to do that. He’s pretty good at pulling the wool over people’s eyes.

                    He’s nothing more than an over paid past his use by date freeloader.

                    If you’re so concerned about public money being wasted you should be concerned about how much Dunne has amassed over the years when the people have so little to show for it.

            • SHG 6.3.1.1.1.4

              Why is it the Green voters’ fault? You could just as easily blame the Labour voters for being so selfish and not voting Green.

      • Peter Matthews 6.3.2

        Far more support than Labours 17% of eligible voters

      • Rosie 6.3.3

        +1 Swordy. This point will once again be lost on folks, as it was in 2011.

        Two thirds of the voting population did not vote National back in.

        • yeshe 6.3.3.1

          +100% Rosie. And hope your home is safe after all .. I saw you mention it yesterday.

          sending smiles …

          • Rosie 6.3.3.1.1

            Kia Ora yeshe. Our house is safe, at best guess till around June next year when the fixed mortgage rate expires. We struggle along on one good salary, until I can get suitable part time work that fits around my illness. 15 months and counting out of work now.

            One of Labour’s policies that would affected us directly was the controlling of interest rates. Without that, with the banks left to their own greedy devices under National who knows where we be this time next year.

            Our future is uncertain and it gives me anxiety, however I feel more for those who have now missed out on their minimum pay raise,

            those 25% of beneficiaries who will be chucked off their benefits and into some unknown frightening place,

            those of us who will be affected by the employment relations amendment act National can finally implement now they have the numbers,

            those bubbas that have missed out on their $60 per week,

            those elderly that would have benefited from Labour’s planned review of the aged care sector and the push for the private carer sector wage to meet that of the public carer sector wage,

            the environment who can’t speak for herself when what protections we do have under the RMA are removed,

            and those future generations of farmed animals that would have lived in a less cruel environment post 2017 after Labour’s plans to ban factory farming.

            Feel free to add to that list…………

            • yeshe 6.3.3.1.1.1

              signing TPPA is my biggest concern with Monsanto and GMOs and a complete loss of our sovereignty to US corporations ..

              and plundering the Cullen Fund ( they can ‘t wait)

              and plundering ACC ( they can’t wait)

              destroying RMA …

              too nauseous to go on …

        • The Lone Haranguer 6.3.3.2

          Not really true at all Rosie.

          The “voting population” is only made up of those who got off their bums and actually voted. People who did not vote are not part of the voting population. 🙂

          52% of the voting population did not vote National back in.

      • Gosman 6.3.4

        Umm… nowhere did I state National has the majority of New Zealanders. I am merely discussing the left. It is quite clear that the current political options on the left is unattractive to the majority of New Zealanders (both voters and non voters).

      • Melb 6.3.5

        Jesus, then I’d hate to see Labour’s result from the pool of eligible voters. Must have only just cracked 15%.

      • Tracey 6.3.6

        surely the percentage that bothered to vote is what matters. They got 48%, and that is still not “what the vast majority of New Zealanders actually think”. I suspect the irony of his entire post will be lost on him. It was on BM

    • adam 6.4

      I’ve consistently call the mood of non-votes Gosman – consistently. You on the right can gloat all you want – but you run a country when almost a 1/3 of the adult population hate your guts enough, not to vote.

  7. Hi Lynn,

    Thought this might interest you as an ex army guy. This is the Russian analysis (English PDF) about what happened to Flight MH17 as compared to the Dutch one (english PDF).

    Somehow the Russian one makes more sense to me. No photo’s of the Rocket trail ever emerged while there are several witnesses who made statements of the plane being followed by a Ukrainian jet.

    • Gosman 7.1

      Were these witnesses in the Russian backed rebel areas perchance?

      • travellerev 7.1.1

        Ah, an indept analysis pending from the Gos also known as cowboy hat boy shilling as usual!

        For those of you really interested I suggest you read both PDF’s. Riveting material. And make up your own mind. So much more satisfying than being fed the innuendo of the Gos.

        • Gosman 7.1.1.1

          How’s that effort to get the US Government to reopen the investigation around September the 11th 2011 going Travellerev? Surely by now Richard Gage has enough support. He’s been going for a while.

          • Te Reo Putake 7.1.1.1.1

            C’mon, Gossie, don’t tease Ev with references to reality, it gives you an unfair advantage. Still, always nice to see righties squabbling 😉

            • vto 7.1.1.1.1.1

              I believe everything the government tells me.

              When I am in Russia I believe Putin
              When I am in America I believe Obama
              When I am in New Zealand I believe Key

              it just makes life so much easier for me

          • travellerev 7.1.1.1.2

            For those of you interested in Gosman’s and te Reo Putake’s function on a site like this here are 25 hallmarks of shill behavior

            For those of you interested in getting as much information as you can about what happened read the above links to the Dutch safety board and the Russian engineering analysis of the attack on flight MH17. It is liberating to actually make up your own mind instead of submitting to the drivel of shills like te Reo Putake and Gosman.

            By the way I hear Jason Ede has taken his leave. Whose given you your talking points now boys?

            • Te Reo Putake 7.1.1.1.2.1

              Ironically, most of the 25 hallmarks of shilling apply to Travellerev’s own mad postings. It’s a tough job proving the earth is flat, but Ev gives it her best shot.

              • And on with the ridiculing, sidetracking and otherwise showing that you have no function here but to troll and destroy any meaning full discussion.
                It doesn’t work anymore. People are waking up and they want to make up their own mind. Have a nice day!

                • Te Reo Putake

                  Who says it’s a nice day? I have seen a report on youtube that says the so-called nice day is actually a CIA/NWO false flag designed to enslave the free world. WAKE UP PEOPLE! The sun is a sideshow, put in place by the Bilderberg group. If it isn’t so, how come they hide it for 12 hours every day?

                  Facts, people, LOL, I laugh at your puny facts!

                  • the ‘fact’ in this that interests me..

                    ..is that as this is a major conflict area..the americans wd have sky-based surveillance going big-time…

                    ..so they will have evidence of what actually happened..

                    ..so..if their evidence actually supports their official missile-story..

                    ..you’d think they would have published it..

                    ..whereas if the opposite is true…?

                    ..that ‘fact’ raises lots of questions for me..

                    • Te Reo Putake

                      That’s not a fact, Phil, it’s speculation. What we already know is pretty straightforward; blown out of the sky by a ground based missile. The names of those who fired it is still up for discussion, but there isn’t much doubt that the rebels had the equipment, had shot down other planes in the days prior, and obstructed the crime scene investigation. So that’s motive, opportunity and guilty behaviour covered.

                      There are no credible alternatives, frankly. But that won’t stop fantasists fantasising.

                    • Te Reo Putake, The Dutch safety board says it needs a whole year to reach any conclusion. Good on you for being so sure but it looks like you are just making shit up!

                    • Gosman

                      You are just as guilty as Te Reo Putake then given you seem to base your opinion from reports from the official Russian media and eye wittnesses I suspect are only from Rebel held areas.

                      You would have more credibility on this topic if you had a range of sources from both sides backing up the views the aircraft was shot down by another plane.

                    • Chooky

                      i agree with you phillip ure and travellerev…i have looked at a number of reports …and imo it adds up to Malaysian Airlines passenger Flight MH17 being brought down by a fighter plane deliberately

                      …question is who was piloting it? …and why did they do it? ( imo the Russians had no motive…a crisis was not in their interests)

                      …why have the Americans not given any satellite reports ? (imo…anything they saw as evidence …was not in their interests?)

                • Gosman

                  States the person who replied to quite a legitimate question with a personal attack based on someone wearing a hat. Who is attempting to ridicule and side track here again?

                  • Oh, hat boy is taking turns with mr. faux Maori. How about you start giving some serious critique on the content of the Report from the Russian board of Engineers? Oh I forgot that is not your briefing!

                    • Te Reo Putake

                      Nice comment, Ev. I like the way you add to your ad hom attacks by using racism. That’s so classy.

                    • No TRM, I refer to the fact that you use a Maori translation of the name you had for years and you are now hiding behind a false racial front so you can say things like this. You are the racist in this and disrespectful too.

                    • Te Reo Putake

                      You don’t get to determine my heritage or identity, fool. You know nothing about me, my whanau or my roots. Nothing. Nice that you accidentally revealed that you think respect for the tangata whenua and te reo is “racial”. Says a lot about your twisted thinking.

                    • vto

                      I still think we should just believe the governments. All of them. I trust all governments and politicians, especially in the field of conflict, war, NATO and Russia.

                      Oh, and we should also believe the newses. We should believe RT and we should believe CNN.

                      That is all the evidence we need.

                      TRP do you have any evidence on whether it was a missile or some air to air thing?

                    • The twisting is done her by you TRP. And you are very good at it too. So how about some good well substantiated criticism of the report From the Russian Engineering union on the attack on the MH17? Neh, I didn’t think so. You are all slithering, innuendo and manipulation of words

                    • Te Reo Putake

                      VTO. Yes. So do you.

                      Ev: so, too ashamed to admit your (hopefully accidental) racism and back to this year’s hopeless hobby horse? Nice try at a deflection, but a sorry would be better.

                    • vto

                      Oh you do. Excellent. Wouldn’t mind seeing it then as this particular matter is quite interesting… could you link or something please?

                    • Te Reo Putake

                      Sure thing, VTO! Link here:

                      google.com

                    • vto

                      gah. Which ones of the about 17,000,000 results?

                    • No TRP you back to your flippancy, manipulation and slithering. Waste of space! Hope they pay you well

                    • Te Reo Putake

                      VTO, best place to start is the Dutch Safety Board report. They use rather diplomatic language, but it’s very comprehensive. There’s a link to it in this BBC summary:

                      http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29119024

                      Sorry if I got a bit snippy, but it was a spillover from dealing with mad Ev. I hate fucken racists. Especially intelligent ones who should know better.

                    • Funny that.

                      I voted for Mana. Not because of Kim Dotcom but because Hone is the only human being in politics I really trust. Him and John Minto, they’re my peeps. I had the honor of shaking Hone’s hand when he spoke in Raglan for the anti-drilling protests. Here is a video I made of him speaking that day: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tC0ibKPW-pI I am gutted he is gone because I believe there is nobody left who will truly speak up and connect to the poor and the rejected no matter what color.
                      So you see TRP, your slimy attempt at isolation and sucking up to VTO is just that.
                      I know where I stand and you can just suck eggs as far as I am concerned.

                      VTO, the two links I gave (Which goes to show how TRP just talks out of his backside) in my initial comment are to the Dutch Safety board report in English and the Russian Engineering Union report in English. So that when you read them both you can compare them and make up your own mind.

                    • Te Reo Putake

                      Wank on, racist. You shook the hand of a maori man? Wow, that’s convincing. It’s almost like you didn’t make the comment above, but sadly, you did. Own it, or apologise for it.

                    • No, I shook the hand of a human being who unlike you does not play games. Who while also being called a racist by assholes like you reached out to all of us no matter what our color. I shook the hand of a man who had honest eyes and who cares for his people. That is why I voted for Mana and I hope they can come back from this because we need them no matter what color.

                      You have a filthy, slithering, manipulative mind and I think you are filth no matter what color you are. I hope one day Lprent sees it too and doesn’t buy your smarmy shite anymore. This site could do with some time without your nasty little games.

                    • Te Reo Putake

                      It’s not a question of you being called a racist, it’s a question of you actually being racist. You made a racist comment and you’ve had all afternoon to come up with a sensible response to being called on it. But, no, you’d rather keep on with the abuse. I guess you are happier to be known as a racist than to apologise for it. An unapologetic racist, then.

  8. Bill Drees 8

    FFS ! What planet is Shearer from? Can’t he keep that shit for the caucus room?
    Behaviour like that is why we loose voters support.
    Shearer has to go. The public wants parties that act competently . That interview Shearer did was incompetent.

    • BM 8.1

      I’d say the voters wold prefer Shearer over Cunliffe.

    • brian 8.2

      I think that New Zealand wants, and needs to hear some honest discussion on directions. For a start I would like SOMEONE apart from DotCom to say that they have stuffed up, or to say that a stuff up has been made, and they will be willing to consider their share of that responsibility when analysis is done and dusted.

      It’s time to hear all views inside and outside of caucus eg the Shearer, the Pagani, The Cunliffe camp and the ABC camp. and every other camp, that has a primary goal of ditching the Nats (ie I do NOT want to hear Farrar and Slater’s ‘recommendations’ to Labour and the left!)

      Discussion on Policy should be far more open than it has been. (For all parties)Strategy is the “shit” that can be kept in the caucus room.

      Nothing I heard from Shearer made me feel uneasy. It is much better to be open, than what we imagine is being said secretly, if people are not open. And given that Cunliffe wants leadership all done and dusted by Christmas, and Labour’s (silly) selection process for Leader is publicly open, why should Shearer not start electioneering?

  9. philj 9

    xox
    righties
    The voters were not wrong. You are framing the issue again. .They were duped by right wing mass media. Its called propaganda. The good folks of NZ will wake up at some point.

    • BM 9.1

      Even better, the voters were stupid.

      New flash people, if the customer/voter doesn’t like your products/polices you change them otherwise you go broke/never get elected.

      • phillip ure 9.1.1

        i agree..labour policies were national-lite..

        ..there was nothing transformational there..

        ..which wd help explain why that ‘missing-million’-voters..

        ..stayed ‘missing’..

        ..and tho’ claiming to be reaching out to them..

        ..labour in the end had nothing for them..

        ..(cunnliffe:..’benefit rates will only rise with inflation..a fiscal surplus is more important for labour’..

        ..that statement from cunnliffe was the icing on that got-nuthin’-for-them cake proffered by labour..

        • phillip ure 9.1.1.1

          i actually supported cunnliffe for the labour leadership..

          ..but the combination of his joining with the right in spontaneous-collusion to take out harawira/the internet/mana party..(his allies..(!)..those who had told him they were working to make him prime minister..)

          ..and then the next day shedding crocodile-tears on political talkshows on how ‘it was a bad result for the left’..

          ..has me seriously wavering..

          ..currently i think he is an utter prick..

          ..with a political tin-ear..

          ..and the strategic nous of a fucken pet rock..

          • Treetop 9.1.1.1.1

            I gave some thought about why Cunliffe did not do a deal with the Mana Internet party.

            1. He wanted to steer clear of buying an election.
            2. A Maori seat and a list seat would have gone to the Mana Internet party and this would have reduced having Labour MPs in the house.
            3. Cunliffe may have expected the TTT voters to work it out themselves because Kelvin Davis was not being backed by his party.

        • BM 9.1.1.2

          Fuck the missing million.

          If they can’t make the effort to get off the couch then they’re not worth chasing.

          Concentrate on the people who are actually engaged in the political process, these are your customers, not some group of dead beats.

          • phillip ure 9.1.1.2.1

            and of course..there..bm..

            ..yr advice’ labour should just continue that losing tactic of being not quite as bad as national is proffered with the very best of intentions..

            ..eh..?

            ..and it has worked so well for them..to date..eh..?

            ..whaddays reckon..?..

            ..should we give goff another go..?

            ..too desperate..?..y’reckon..?

          • adam 9.1.1.2.2

            That’s because they hate the right wing and everything it stands for BM. The feel disgust and disillusionment in the political system – but most of all, they hate those who hold the reins of power.

      • Rosie 9.1.2

        There’s a little bit of a difference between running a business and running a functioning democracy BM. Kind of crass plonking a market example on to society. It doesn’t fit.

  10. Pasupial 10

    O it’s so good and it’s so pure
    Just one taste – you’ll fall apart

    There’s a cop out on his beat
    & he’s looking for someone neat

    I’ve lost all faith; in government,
    in business, and the state

    They’re always making money – never you or I,
    They’re driving big black cars and plotting destinies

    And there’s a book in the past which has never been read
    and it’s to you or I

    Peter Gutteridge 1961-2014

    Sendoff tomorrow at Dunedin stadium; 11am, entrance J.

    • left for dead 10.1

      Buddy,..Rest in peace. J entrance,plenty of parks.

      • phillip ure 10.1.1

        it bears posting again..

        ..one of my favourite/best-ever nz songs..

        ..(grinding-menace has never been better done..

        ..thank you mr gutteridge et.al..)

        ..vale..!..

        • Pasupial 10.1.1.1

          Meant to put the lyrics in italics, but couldn’t remember how, then I got distracted reading before I made it to the formating tips (should have used blockquotes instead). The song is “Pure”; titletrack from 90s Xpressway tape that is in the process of being reissued on vinyl (there’s a version of Pure#2 on Youtube, but the lyrics are different, so I won’t link).

          Actually, I’ve got a CD copy of the song which I might try upload to Youtube myself (though not done so before, so it may take a while). Unless there is some way to post an audio file to this site? I’ve not seen it done before, only links; so probably not.

  11. mickysavage 11

    It has been announced that Jason Ede has resigned from the national party. Interesting timing. I never did see those media stories about him and the whaledump tho …

    • ianmac 11.1

      Do you think Jason Eade will be going on a long sponsored holiday in say Mongolia?

      • brian 11.1.1

        Where’s Wally is turning out to be one of the great mysteries of Election 2014. Rapidly becoming a mystery of the scale of the disappearance of the Mary Celeste (and the disappearance of the last Whaledump).

        @phillip (refer 2)
        Can we also blame DotCom for the disappearance of Jason Ede? Why not?

    • veutoviper 11.2

      “I never did see those media stories about him and the whaledump tho …”

      No, and I wonder whether we ever will now. I know that some people think there is no Ede/WO coms (facebook, emails etc) but this goes against the number of references to these in “Dirty Politics”.

      Matt Nippert at Fairfax was one of the reporters that was in contact with Rawshark and did a couple of articles on Rawshark and the dumps. He has been questioned on his Twitter account on the silence etc and has basically replied that it is very complicated etc with the current legal hearings etc.

      Matt Nippert also appeared on RNZ National on The Panel last Friday – and IIRC he announced that he was leaving (or had left) Fairfax that day (?) and going to The Herald starting Oct 20 (?) Will try to find the recording later but time pressed right now.

    • yeshe 11.3

      If they lost on Saturday, it would have been a different story I think. As winners they have to be seen to be trying to clean up. Hahaha.

      Cute story to draw direct attention to it this morning tho ? What the ?

      I can imagine he has been paid an enormous amount of money, in the millions, to disappear and keep his silence.

  12. swordfish 12

    Trying to look on the bright side, in terms of raw number of votes, the Left Bloc’s only slightly down and the Opposition Bloc is up.

    Left 2011 886,477…….. 2014 est 866,285

    Oppo 2011 1,034,021…… 2014 est 1,066,487

    • This shows that the fragmentation of the left is what is keeping the Tories in power.
      The weakening of the Labour brand by the ABCs shenanigans over the past few years is the cause.
      We need discipline and focus now: not public undermining of the Leader the party selected.

    • Pasupial 12.2

      Swordfish

      The current numbers are; 2,112,522 preliminary, 254,630 specials. So are you claiming that the parliamentary Left (Labour/ Green) will get 136,375 (54%) of the Special Vote? Or do you count IMP & ALCP as being Left despite having no MPs?

      Also with NZF putting the current opposition preliminary vote at 915,941;your estimate would give LP/GP/NZF opposition 150,546 (59%) of the SV. What basis doe you have for these estimates (which would seem likely to take at least one seat from National to the opposition)?

      http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2014/partystatus.html

      • swordfish 12.2.1

        Left = Lab+Green+IMP

        Oppo = Left+NZF

        I’ve used the distribution of Special Votes in the last 3 Elections to estimate the likely overall percentage that each Party will receive in the Final Result. And then calculated the raw number of votes from these percentages (remembering to exclude the Informals that (I) we now about (ie among the 2,112,522 preliminary total) and (ii) an estimate of what I think the Informal % among the Special Votes is likely to be).

        • swordfish 12.2.1.1

          “now”, of course, should be “know”

          • Pasupial 12.2.1.1.1

            Well; “doe” should have been “do”, too (typos that make it through auto-spellcheck seem harder to detect than if it was all by eyeball).

            Thanks for the clarification. So that’s a; 109,836 (43%) gain for Left, 124,007 (49%) for Opposition.

  13. ianmac 13

    Swordfish. I want to write a letter to our local editor pointing out that the “Landslide Victory” to National was based on a 5% drop in number of voters who voted National.

    What was that number of fewer voters please?

    • swordfish 13.1

      If you’re talking about raw number of votes, Ian, then I don’t think you would have got that from my site. National’s vote (in raw numbers) actually increased. As you would expect when the Nats are essentially receiving the same % of the vote as 2011 but where both the Electorate as a whole and Turnout have grown since 2011 (there’s been a lot of nonsense on the blogosphere in the last couple of days about turnout declining).

      • ianmac 13.1.1

        Tanks swordfish. I had read yesterday that the National vote was 95% of 2011. Must have misunderstood.

        • alwyn 13.1.1.1

          The figure you read was, I suspect, something that Mickey Savage posted.
          It was however comparing the 2014 election night figures with the 2011 final figures, which of course includes all the special votes. There are supposed to be about 250,000 of them.
          The same post, comparing the comparable data for Labour and the Green parties said that Labour had 84% of 2011 and the Greens 85%. Thus National did much better than the other parties in there 2014 as opposed to the 2011 numbers.
          **** warning. All figures and the poster are from memory and may be quite wrong.

  14. Not a PS Staffer 14

    The Nats show a unified face no matter what shit is going down. The Nats do not wash their dirty linen in public. That is why people voted them into power.

    What part of understanding what the public wants does Robertson and Shearer not get? Their vain self centered immature antics shows them to be unsuitable for leadership roles. Get them out fast and let us build a strong opposition to Tories.

  15. Herodotus 15

    And nationals 1st new job of the 200k has been created and we will have 1 less unemployed !!! National already starting to meet a promise and parliament has not even been sworn in 🙂
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11329167

  16. “..The Nats do not wash their dirty linen in public..”

    ..but they have so much..!

    ..do they contract it out..?

  17. Jenny 17

    The missing ingredient.

    Another election goes by where climate change is not taken seriously by the leading parties. And none campaigned on it.

    (Congratulations to the Climate Voter intervention, which made sure that climate change wasn’t completely ignored.)

    http://inthesetimes.com/article/17183/naomi_klein_this_changes_everything_manual_for_movement

    A common misconception is that the necessary technology just isn’t there yet. Not so, says Klein, citing the work of Stanford University Professor Mark Z. Jacobson. In 2009, the civil engineer and his co-author found that 100 percent of the world’s energy could be supplied by wind, water and solar resources, by as early as 2030. The primary obstacle to enacting such a transition is our economic model—one that answers to the fossil fuel industry and its champions in government, not ordinary people in line to bear the brunt of the crisis. “Our problem has a lot less to do with the mechanics of solar power than the politics of human power,” Klein writes.

    Indeed, Klein is a master at unpacking myths and contradictions, wherever their origins lie on the political spectrum. Naturally, she bashes Big Oil and Big Gas for their sadistic, extraction-fueled fantasies of tearing up the planet until nothing comes out.

    But she is equally as harsh on the collaborationists in the major environmentalist organizations—“Big Green,” who have tried cozying up to the planet’s pallbearers in industry and government for decades. (During her research, Klein made the stomach-churning discovery that the Nature Conservancy literally allows oil drilling on land it owns in Texas.)

    • brian 17.1

      Excellent post

    • Jenny 17.2

      http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/article1461908.ece

      As settled weather becomes a thing of the past.

      Where parties stand on climate change will settle elections.

    • The Lone Haranguer 17.3

      Jenny, its not taken seriously by the “leading parties” because the voters arent motivated by it at all.

      Voters are primarily driven by self interest, and currently can not see that it really affects them, or will affect them in the immediate future.

      And if the Greens (as a leading party) chose not to campaign on climate change, its because they know that its an electoral turnoff.

      Politics is about promising the punters something good – a brighter future for them, for their kids, and for their grandkids.

      • Jenny 17.3.1

        “Jenny, its not taken seriously by the “leading parties” because the voters arent motivated by it at all.”
        The Lone Haranguer

        You mean the opposition leaders chose not to motivate the voters around this issue.

        80% of the population are opposed to deep sea oil drilling,

        60% want the government and in particular the Prime Minister to do more on climate change

        100% of opposition leaders are reluctant to raise the issue for fear of offending the powerful fossil fuel industry lobbyists.

        In my opinion the first party that decides to break from this conservative consensus and run with the issue of climate change will clean up.

        It’s called leadership.

        • The Lone Haranguer 17.3.1.1

          I can see your argument Jenny, and its a fair one at an intellectual level only.

          I still think tho, that people vote on emotional stuff and stuff that “gets them”. And climate change doesnt “get them” so its not a vote changer – yet.

          Leadership isnt leadership if your “followers” are being lead kicking and screaming that they dont want to come.

          But long term, Im sure you will be proven correct. Maybe your approach is simply ahead of its time

  18. brian 18

    I note the rewriting of history by the Nats. Statements like “Nobody is interested in the Dirty Politics”

    That may have been true for many voters for how they voted, but the Nats should not underestimate that there are many people, such as myself, who have always considered the Dirty politics issues are of even more importance than the result of the election (I am not saying that the election was not important)

    Dirty John should reflect a little more on history. Presidents in the USA did not always spend their time on the Golf Course entertaining their pet poodles from the South Pacific. One in particular spent a good deal of time dealing with an issue called JohnGate ….I mean Watergate.

    • Pasupial 18.1

      brian

      I think what they meant to say was: “Only nobodies are interested in the Dirty Politics”. The Right are all about gaining advantage for their own people – in an; if you’re not with us, you’re against us, kind of way. The Left are more about the enrichment of wider society than individual cronies (which is why corruption is a scandal to the left, but business as usual to the right).

      China, our biggest trading partner, will be very interested in the revelations leading up to the election. ShonKey won’t be able to smile & wave away their response.

  19. weka 19

    ANyone know who Katherine Ryan is talking to?

  20. nash is now spouting utter lying bullshit..on nat-rad..

    ..claiming/taking all the credit for winning napier..

    ..(and wrapping it in his rightwing/’average-bloke-appeal’-rhetoric..)

    ..and totally denying the fact that garth micvicar split the right vote for him..

    ..to a serious degree,,

    ..and had mcvicar not stood..

    ..nash wd have lost..

    ..he is so full of bullshit..!

    (..and a major fail for ryan for not knowing that fact/not asking that question..)

    • Bill Drees 20.1

      Ryan is a wet bus ticket.
      Nash is a legend…..like McVicar! Self absorbed.

    • nash beat the national party candidate by some 3,700..

      ..mcvicar got over (would have gone to national) 4,500 votes..

      ..(and what amazed me about that figure..apart from confirming nash should be registering his gratitude to mcvicar in some way..flowers..?..chocolate..?..

      ..and his self-serving hubris/arrogance/spinning of the facts..)

      ..is just how many far-right people there are lurking in/around napier..

      ..whoar..!..)

      • phillip ure 20.2.1

        nash is claiming to want to run for the labour leadership..(!)

        ..the man is an antipodean walter mitty..

        • adam 20.2.1.1

          Nash is a prime example of all that is wrong with labour and why they are on the wrong side of history. They get all vitriolic when stabbing the left – they won’t co-operate, they wimp out on the right. They can’t even get rid of the right wing hate merchants in their own party, or shut up a damn fool commentator who pretends they represent labour, but in reality is a RW nut job. They don’t know how to have policy fights behind closed doors.

          How about labour are the problem. And have been since they sold working people down the river for 30 pieces of silver.

          Labour are that kid who won’t share his toys when we were a kid. And when an Adult tells them to share, they break the toy – rather than play nice.

        • greywarbler 20.2.1.2

          @ phillip u
          nash is claiming to want to run for the labour leadership..(!)
          It seems that politics in NZ (and perhaps all western countries) has become a place for personal asperashun. So no loyalty, just running on the field when it’s a lolly scramble, and going out for No.1, pushing aside the kids who are meant to be the recipients.

          • adam 20.2.1.2.1

            asperashun?

            Because both aspersion and aspiration would work with what you wrote greywarbler.

            Please say new word meaning both 🙂

            • greywarbler 20.2.1.2.1.1

              @ adam 2.21
              Right I’ll work on it. It’s becoming a cliche. Time for something innovative.

          • Ant 20.2.1.2.2

            From Rob Salmond’s posting on Nash, I’m thinking him and Davis as the “swinging dicks” of Labour might be put forwards by the abcs.

            Since the analysis is fairly lacking from what we expect of Rob, I’m betting there’s a power play going down and a bit of positioning from the apparatchiks.

      • Murray Olsen 20.2.2

        It’s quite possible McVicar got some votes that otherwise would have gone to Labour.

  21. Katy 21

    Apparently there are almost 300,000 special votes still to be counted and according to national party propaganda (N.Z. Herald) the electoral office hopes to release the final results at 2 pm on Sat Oct 4th and there are 6 marginal electorates with majorities of under 1500.
    My question to those who know more about how these special votes tend to pan out is, in the past have special votes had any major effect on the end result in New Zealand elections. Also do they think that the 300,000 votes that have yet to be counted might make Saturdays results look not so one sided.

    • Te Reo Putake 21.1

      As I recall, last election the special votes gave the greens one more MP by lifting their overall party vote up slightly. Not sure if the same will happen this time. I think the Labour party vote will also rise slightly, but that will only ensure that Andrew Little makes it back as a list MP, confirming the result on the night.

      I don’t think any electorate race is that close that specials will make a difference.

      • Pasupial 21.1.1

        TRP

        In Auckland Central there is a 647 vote margin for Kaye with 8,930 special (41% of 21,681 preliminary) votes yet to be counted (plus 152 candidate informals).

        http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2014/electorate-1.html

        Also:

        Hutt South; with a margin of 378 & 3,694 special (34,699 prelim) + 238 informal.

        Ōhāriu; margin 930, 2,822 special, (32,705 prelim) + 259 informal.

        Te Tai Tokerau; apparently has no specials (nor does any māori seat). You would imagine that this would be getting a recount (or at least a well-scrutinised official count), but the 348 candidate informals just aren’t enough to overcome the 1,119 margin.

        • Te Reo Putake 21.1.1.1

          The Ak central result will be interesting, but that 647 vote margin mean the specials would have to be lopsidedly Labour for Kaye to lose the seat. Can’t see it happening.

          • ScottGN 21.1.1.1.1

            Sadly I don’t expect the result in Auckland Central to change on specials either.
            It’s worth noting, however that Adern and her team did pretty well in this seat. Boundary changes (left voting Grey Lynn was moved to Mt Albert) were expected to significantly strengthen Nikki Kaye’s hold on the seat but Adern managed to hold the margin. What’s really interesting though is that going by the herald graphics the overall party vote in this seat is down 12,251 from 2011.

      • ScottGN 21.1.2

        And don’t forget that in 2011 Paula Bennett managed to turn around a 400+ election night deficit in Waitakere with specials and a recount. I don’t think that it’s always the case that specials will favour the left.

    • Rosie 21.2

      Good question Katy. I had also been wondering. Helpful answers too.

    • swordfish 21.3

      In terms of the Party Vote, Katy, the Specials are usually good for both Labour and the Greens and bad for the Nats. Expect the Nats to fall by half a percentage point, possibly more. Meaning, they’ll probably end up very close to their 2011 Party Vote % (assuming the Specials fall the way they have in the past). Labour can be expected to rise to about 25.0%

  22. Draco T Bastard 22

    Here’s a friendly graph of how the votes fell compared to how many seats that they got:

    https://twitter.com/publicpurpose/status/513799886110613506/photo/1

  23. Puckish Rogue 23

    What a wonderful, marvellous election, I’ll admit even I was surprised by the result (I mean knew National would get back in) but to win by such a margin

    If it was a kids game of rugby it would have been ended early to save the embarrassment

    I mean how does a party going for its third term increase its votes…

    So good in fact that maybe a previously unthinkable fourth isn’t that out of the question, its a good feeling 🙂

    • halfcrown 23.1

      I am pleased for you puckish. However I can see very large storm clouds on the horizon, and it is not going to be a very nice time for the average NZer or the environment. This National party of today is not the old National with all it’s faults still had honorable gentlemen like Sir Keith, and Sir John Marshall, it is a bunch of crooks as found out by “the dirty politics” headed by a fucking money trading spiv backed up by large overseas interests. Federated farmers have stated that National now has the mandate (I don’t remember it being mentioned by National during the election) to review the RMA to make us a major primary producer. I can see more bloody cattle added to the too many this country can sustain now leading to further pollution to this once beautiful country.
      I am one of the fortunates it really doesn’t affect me who gets in power, but I like to think of the less fortunates and would like to leave this country more or less as I found it for yours and my grandchildren.

      Good article about the the rockstar economy by Lafferty’s quoted in today’s Interest.co.nz

      “New Zealand’s clean, green overseas sales pitch has come under fire over the past couple of years. Perhaps a variation on it could be ‘clean, green and neck deep in debt.'”

      “A report from the London-based Lafferty Group, which describes itself as a provider of advanced knowledge services to the financial industry, shows the New Zealand consumer finance market with one of the highest levels of indebtedness in the world, leveraged, surprise, surprise, heavily on residential mortgages.”

      Full article at
      http://www.interest.co.nz/business/72044/international-report-confirms-nz-world-leader-its-consumer-credit-personal-disposable

  24. The knives are out. Who is in the labour caucus now, and how do the numbers look for abc?
    If the vote doesn’t go party wide, is DC toast?

    If he is, Green’s should frame labour as another right wing party and get organised to grab the memberships of the apoplectic rank and file.

    • The Al1en 24.1

      Armstrong writes
      “Cunliffe is already trying to avoid being framed in such a negative fashion by saying he would be using a party-wide vote to seek a “mandate” for the “modernisation” of the party.
      Such language will be treated with deep suspicion by those party activists who have been seeking to push Labour leftwards and who backed Cunliffe in large numbers in last September’s leadership ballot which followed Shearer’s resignation.”

      Did DC say he was heading right? I take modernising the party to mean getting rid of the old guard and abc, getting younger, fresher, leftier type’s in return. Why would those activists change their minds unless told otherwise. Perception eh?

  25. joe90 25

    Big turnout today in New York.

    http://peoplesclimate.org/

    People’s Climate ‏@Peoples_Climate

    OFFICIAL COUNT: 310,000 people marching for climate justice at #PeoplesClimate March! pic.twitter.com/YGLavoKQBV

    More –

    http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/09/08/3564319/climate-march-climate-summit-new-york-preview/

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/22/nyregion/new-york-city-climate-change-march.html

    https://twitter.com/search?q=%23PeoplesClimate&mode=photos

  26. GRiM 26

    290,000 vote still to be counted, could be a couple of seats?
    dirty politics, inquiry, another 2-3 seats,
    vote recount petition growing, I wouldn’t discount a Watergate situation arising…

    Joyce a bit worried about Winston being in opposition 🙂

    • Rosie 26.1

      This petition?

      https://secure.avaaz.org/en/petition/Hon_Sir_Hugh_Williams_KNZM_QC_LLM_Recount_NZ_2014_Election_I_believe_it_was_rigged/?tnuAHab

      The petitioner, Josh K says:

      “Something doesn’t seem right with recent the New Zealand election. Evidence of fraudulent voting and it makes no sense that people would local vote left and party vote right. Is this another case of Electoral Fraud?”

      Genuine questions. Was there evidence of fraudulent voting? Also, have we had previous cases of electoral fraud? One of the few things I have any trust left in, in relation to our democracy, has been our voting system. As for the number of seats that went to Labour when the party went to National, that is bizarre, but MMP is designed for voters to exercise some “flexibility” in how they want their country governed.

      Or is anything possible now days given the level of deceit and corruption at the highest levels of power?

      • Chooky 26.1.1

        +100 Rosie..(.I posted the link to the petition above…i didnt see you had already done so here)

        ….i cant see that a re-count and re-examination of the Election voting process and ‘Results’ on Election Day would do any harm at ALL!…(over 6,000 have already signed i think)…..the results were so shocking and counter-intuitive and against all the corruption evidence…I have had several shocked friends suggest Election rigging ….even the msm was shocked …

        …. if this petition succeeds it will put many peoples minds at rest …that it is officially investigated…and they can move on from here

        …also if there has been Electoral fraud or foul play, as has been the case in a number of other countries and American States eg. in Florida ….it will be exposed

        …the stakes in this Election have been high, there are overseas interests involved, dirty tricks , surveillance and vicious media attacks on the Left

        …(at very least this petition, if well supported ,will put the willies up the Nacts!)

        • Rosie 26.1.1.1

          Nicely put Chooky. No, it wouldn’t do any harm and for what it’s worth I did sign it.

          I’m just curious about the petitioner stating “……evidence of fraudulent voting”. I’m sure we’d all like to know if there has been.

          • Puckish Rogue 26.1.1.1.1

            Once again proving that

            a. the left is out of touch (how could the people not vote for us, it must be a rort!)

            b. the left are only keen on democracy if it benefits them, if it benefits the right then the left arn’t quite so keen on democracy

            c. the left are poor losers which is suprising since they get so much practice at it

        • alwyn 26.1.1.2

          I posted this comment at your earlier comment on the topic.
          I’ll repeat it here so there is a better chance you’ll see it.

          Can you please explain in what manner this election was “rigged”.
          Are you seriously suggesting that all the people counting the votes were corrupt, and evaded any detection by scrutineers from the various political parties?
          Alternatively are you proposing that lots of false ballots were put in the boxes, and that the people making them up chose to fill them in so that they candidate voted Labour and party voted National?
          Any other suggestions you have would be of interest.

          • Chooky 26.1.1.2.1

            …we would have to leave this one up to the officials and the experts….i am not saying it has happened here, but there is disquiet and if there is enough disquiet there should be a recount and re-examination of Election Day Polling results

            ….and suffice it to say it does occur around the world and in the USA..

            • alwyn 26.1.1.2.1.1

              I am not asking for all the details. I just want to know the point at which it is supposed to take place. The ballots are counted in front of scrutineers and everyone involved in such a manual process would have to be corrupt.

              I haven’t listened right through the piece you referenced but as far as I got they appear to be talking about voting machines, not the paper ballots we use so it doesn’t really seem that relevant.

              • lprent

                Indeed. Having been through the process many times I prefer the paper system that we have and all of the post-checking and scrutineering that goes on.

                As a computer programmer and an activist with a lot of experience in both hardening computer systems and election campaigns, far as I am concerned a paper system with lots of eyes on it wins out every time for security.

                • alwyn

                  That I agree with. The fact that you can computerise something doesn’t mean you should. Lots of counters, scrutineers and doing it all over a second time ought to avoid any significant fraud.

            • alwyn 26.1.1.2.1.2

              I should have added that the election day count is always recounted for every electorate and every ballot paper before the official results are declared in about three weeks time..
              You don’t really need a petition if all you want is a recount, do you?

              http://www.elections.org.nz/voting-system/general-elections/general-election-results-recounts-challenges

          • Puckish Rogue 26.1.1.2.2

            It was rigged because people on here had a “feeling” that there was a mood of change in the electorate and because National won so convincingly there must have some illegalaities going on

            Its the only answer that makes sense when you think about it 😉

    • Chooky 26.2

      +100 GRiM..”Joyce a bit worried about Winston being in opposition”

      I think it was this morning on radionz , Winston said tersely he was not going to accept any invitation to join John Key’s Nact government! ( this despite previous “big ears” flirtations with Joyce…Joyce sounded keener on him))

      (words to the effect of ) … why would he?!….and…the only reason they want him in with them is because of the things he knows about them!…( ie implication: dirt)…and it sounded like Winnie was making a threat to me…

      He was sounding mightily pissed off ( maybe because he lost his crown?)

  27. smokeskreen 27

    Congratulations New Zealand! You have just delivered a dictatorship! Well done.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 27.1

      Think of it more as a gang, affiliated but pursuing their individual criminal interests.

  28. Puckish Rogue 28

    When the opposition is so useless its only right that people vote for the natural party of leadership

  29. joe90 29

    National dropped close to 50k party votes yet a talking head on the midday news referred to a landslide victory.
    //

    • Puckish Rogue 29.1

      Wow 48% of the votes and able to govern on its own in an MMP environment and you don’t think its a landslide…

    • ianmac 29.2

      @joe90. I wondered about that but the very well informed Swordfish @13.1 said:
      “If you’re talking about raw number of votes, Ian, then I don’t think you would have got that from my site. National’s vote (in raw numbers) actually increased. As you would expect when the Nats are essentially receiving the same % of the vote as 2011 but where both the Electorate as a whole and Turnout have grown since 2011 (there’s been a lot of nonsense on the blogosphere in the last couple of days about turnout declining).”

  30. Puckish Rogue 30

    Keep up the good work 🙂

  31. KJS0ne 31

    I don’t buy into this whole ‘no going back’ thing, or these ideas that Labour cannot repair what has been broken. I know it’s not the same situation as National were in in 2002, but I do think there are some similarities. National polled 20.9% in that election. Now admittedly a portion of that vote simply went to other centre right parties such as ACT and UF and their increase in 2005 was taking votes back from those parties, but I do think it’s an example that shows that no defeat, no matter how much of a trouncing, is the end.

    I have even seen people on here suggesting disbanding the Labour party and starting a new one, which is a kneejerk reaction.

    Here are my ideas about what needs to be done:
    A) Have a leadership election

    B) Generate unity in the caucus, the leader of the Labour party post election must get everyone on side, extend the olive branch and repair the divide and bury the troublesome MPs who refuse. A divided caucus that undermines the leadership will result in another lost election.

    C) Not just promise to reconnect, actually do it. Go and listen to what your supporters say… I had a very unpleasant encounter with my local Labour MP who was blasting megaphone noise into my living room at 6.15 on a monday evening in the middle of a quiet family suburb. I got out and suggested to his staffers that they just go door knocking as it was annoying having a megaphone din being blasted into our homes, and was liable to turn people off, and instead of listening they just argued with me. I emailed the MP in question, and he did give me a quick and respectable response, but his email was simply to disagree. The issue didn’t really matter, it was the fact that instead of listening to what a supporter had said, they had a mentality of “We know best”, and from what I have read, seen and heard it seems to be symptomatic of the Labour party in general. There is an arrogance among certain Labour MPs and it needs to change. Labour needs to get out there and poll and ask real people what would convince them to vote Labour, don’t just ask Labour supporters, ask independents, ask those people who once voted Labour but now vote National. Ask Pakeha men what put them off Labour. Shit, ask every god damn demographic why they voted National and why they didn’t vote Labour, and what would it take to change that.

    D) Start working with the Greens, not against them. Labour had a message added to all their signs in Dunedin a couple weeks out from the election which read: “Only a party vote for Labour will change the Government” – Hello? Does the Green party not exist? That was insulting.

    E) Really work on marketing. Hire better talent, think outside the box, do research. Fire the numbskull who has thought up ‘Vote Positive’ and ‘Stop Asset Sales’, the former of which was a meaningless phrase that did nothing, and the latter of which was turned against us in a brilliant piece of marketing with a stop/go sign by National.

    F) Re establish a good financial base. Reconnect with SMEs, court benevolent millionaires, do what needs to be done to pump some god damn money into this movement, don’t take it for granted that all businesses will support National. Labour has partly driven SMEs into National’s hands. But they are not lost for good, let’s put some bloody effort into it!

    G) Ditch the dumb policies. Raising the entitlement age to 67 was a really dumb platform. It made good financial sense, and it’s something that Labour could have instituted mid term and sold to the public as a necessary evil, but there are some cards best not revealed before an election. Do you think National campaigned on the GCSB bill? No.

    H) Leave the left-left to the left. Labour needs to appeal to those in the middle. Let the coalition partners like the Greens garner the left left vote, you’re not going to govern without them so just leave them to do what they do best, that takes care of the left and leaves Labour able to appeal to the moderates and the centralists that have voted National but would vote Labour if they got their shit together.

    Anyway, that’s my thoughts, no doubt there will be some points that are disagreeable, and perhaps there is some fair criticism of what I have said, interested to see what others think.

    • greywarbler 31.1

      KJSOne
      That’s a solid lot of things to do. Lot of thought went into your comment. Good luck with getting it done. This blog has been full of suggestions, ideas, wishes, thoughts, innovations, for the past….years. It didn’t start a month before the elections.

      But some of the practices and people are stuck to Labour with superglue. Have to operate with a scalpel and slice some skin away to get them off. That’s how hard it will be to get rid. Even possible that the skin is necrotising. But that effect is very fast and deadly. Probably it’s more cancerous, you look okay with cancer for so long, and then it can overwhelm you. If you think this is a sick analogy, then I think you are right, but I think it is rightly descriptive.

      • KJS0ne 31.1.1

        I know, easier said than done right. I’m living in a land of best case scenarios and the reality as you say is that the rot has set in. Unlike your necrotic flesh analogy though I would go for the rotten apple, where the skin can still look quite appealing from the outside, but from within, it’s alcoholic mush.

        It’s easy for me to sit here and type this stuff anyway as I’m not a Labour member, I’m a member of the Greens, where our leaders govern the party by consensus and listen to our support base. I am a union member though and I will be voting in any upcoming leadership election of the Labour party.

        I guess the hardest thing is, if Cunliffe is going to continue on as leader, how does he win over the majority of a caucus that is so bloody disobedient and egotistical. There are a number of MPs in Labour that are well past their due by date, if Cunliffe cedes to their guy, will it result in a united cabinet and effective leadership? Or just another 3 years of infighting and tepid ineptitude. In an ideal situation I would be inclined to use the scalpel quite liberally, but as is pointed out, there are so many constraints, it is difficult to oust an MP on idealogical and leadership disagreement alone.

        • greywarbler 31.1.1.1

          @ KJSOne
          Yes. It seems that all Labour Party politicians should go on compulsory military training so they learn to obey orders for once. Trying to run things with such hostile people, when their commitment is not to the Party, and they are willing to disrupt and fracture it is difficult if not impossible. (Herding cats!)

          Such disloyalty should result in them being called before a representative committee that hears the case, gives a warning, and then can intervene to remove the person from a shadow portfolio, even remove from their position allowing the list to rise. There must be a control on this egoistic shambles playing with a community entity formed from the strivings of thousands of people in the past. Not to be broken by spoilt, self-centred individuals.

          This would no doubt have to be voted on by members. So go to it and put it to them you Labour people if you care about your Party. This Labour Party is not only self-destroying, it is undermining our whole democratic system and I am sick of hearing about its failings.

    • Clemgeopin 31.2

      I agree!
      All that PLUS do tactical adjustments with other left parties, especially in marginal seats. Had Labour, Greens and IMP done this at this election, I suspect we would have about 6 to 8 extra MPS 3 to 4 of whom would have come from IMP…..and we could have been the government.

  32. Treetop 32

    The happiest electorate in the country is Palmerston North.

    Lees – Galloway was reelected and Labour got 24.7 of the party vote.
    Naylor got in on the national party list and National got 43.1 of the party vote.
    Naylor is stepping down from being the mayor.

  33. Comstock 33

    I like KJSOne’s analysis and suggestions above.

    I would like to add one thing: simplicity of messaging.

    National distilled their entire platform down to a one word idea: “stability”. Which all of their politicians kept pumping out for the entire course of their campaign. They owned stability.

    Neither the Labour or the Greens had a one word distillation of their platforms. No single-minded core proposition to counter National’s “stability.”

    Yet the word is out there. It’s easy. It’s something that both the Greens and Labour stand for. The word is “fairness.” Fairness for the disadvantaged and marginalised. Fairness for Maori. Fairness for Pacific and Asian communities. Fairness in employment. In taxation. In education. In health. For the environment. Fairness. Fairness. Fairness.

    The left needs to own “fairness”. In this land of “fair goes” I believe fairness can beat stability. Who wants stability when it’s inherently unfair?

    • greywarbler 33.1

      @ Comstock
      I disagree that fairness matches stability. Stability means getting on with having a job and the economy not collapsing and not too many changes that will upset those who have.

      Fairness talks about destabilising those who have, who then must give up some for those who haven’t. Now that isn’t so comfortable and doesn’t fit into the myth that you can have it all and we are managing here and will soon be in surplus if we sell this, and cut down on that and you can afford that holiday and have a home that is suitable for a person of your standing. This is the National nursery rhyme for greedy little sweet-swipers.

      Do you see the subliminal messages that flow from those two words?.

      If Labour wanted to paint a picture of itself as a staunch defender of NZ and a brawny fighter for small business it would get more traction. And more cash flowing through the society and multiple effects from each $ spent (multiplier advantage of every $ spent and taxed is about 2-3 times as tax comes off it. So each $ facilitates another trade.) Labour shouldn’t be regarded as the great non-religious charity handing out necessary things to the weary and dispossessed and hungry.

      Labour has to show how we can be a strong, earning country and looking after each other, care about the economy, the health and the opportunities for individual advancement of all the NZ people, the total package.

  34. Jenny 34

    XKEYSCORE

    So are New Zealander’s being spied on, or not?

    Is all our metadata being collected and shared amongst the 5 Eyes partners including the GCSB?

    It seems clear that through XKeyscore and Pinwale, it is.

    And all that is needed to access all this data is a few secret keystrokes, by those with access to the program.

    However, it seems that our secret agencies have to seek a warrant to be able to look at what they have collected on any individual.

    We know that for at least 88 New Zealanders they didn’t.

    Who are they?

  35. Comstock 35

    I’m hoping that some serious people are going to organise a serious petition to call on the Department of Internal Affairs to launch an independent Royal Commission of Inquiry into the “Dirty Politics” links between Government Ministers and bloggers such as Slater and Farrah, and the role of NZ Herald journalists.

    According to the DIA’s web info:

    The Department of Internal Affairs provides administrative assistance to Royal Commissions and Commissions of Inquiry.

    These Commissions are able to inquire into any matter of major public importance or concern to the Government of the day.

    An inquiry under the Commissions of Inquiry Act 1908 should be considered when the situation is so unusual that no other approach will do, such as:

    – there is considerable public anxiety about the matter
    – a major lapse in Government performance appears to be involved
    – circumstances giving rise to the inquiry are unique with few or no precedents
    – the issue cannot be dealt with through the normal machinery of Government/courts
    – the issue is in an area too new, complex or controversial for mature policy decisions to be taken.

    As far as I can see, the Dirty Politics Saga meets most of these criteria.

    We need a public petition signed by hundreds of thousands to press for this enquiry.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 35.1

      Because then the Police will do their job?

      • Comstock 35.1.1

        Because then, the voting public will get the political transparency and accountability that is our due.

        • One Anonymous Bloke 35.1.1.1

          😆

          No, we won’t.

          • adam 35.1.1.1.1

            Dreams are free Comstock.

            Our liberal elites have no spin for that too ever happen – they are piss weak, and would rather bow down to the rest of the 1%, rather than cause any trouble.

            Ahh, remember the time when the left wing elites feared working people – Those were the days.

  36. adam 37

    ISIS – proving to a libertarians both left and right. That a small group of men willing to do unspeakable violence, is a essential in the creation of the state. States using violence to support their rule, since – whenever they are created.

  37. emergency mike 38

    Anyone else notice that during Key’s victory speech by far the biggest, most animated and enthusiastic ‘thank you’ he gave, was to not to National supporters, but to David Farrar?

    It seemed to me that Key showed large and genuine gratitude. Is it possible that Farrar realized some time ago via his polling that focusing as much media attention on Dotcom as possible was good for National? Or that it was not hurting them, but that it was hurting the left? Remember when John Key started banging on about a ‘the left’ being out to get him in some big conspiracy that always seemed to have Dotcom in it somewhere?

    This is the same David Farrar by the way, that is strongly implicated in Dirty Politics as working in tandem with Cameron Slater to manipulate media attacks on National’s opponents. While IMP didn’t do themselves any favours by fronting Dotcom himself at their meetings, when Leila Harre says that IMP underestimated that scope of the sustained media attack on them, I for one believe her.

    • Chooky 38.1

      Yup ..it was an Election win for the right wing journalists/PR operatives on radio, television, newspaper, twitter…. and blogs like Kiwiblog and Whaleoil

      …..as well as the right wing Polling companies like the one belonging to David Farrar

      …they should all be named and shamed and their spin crimes itemised…so they come back to haunt them

      • Puckish Rogue 38.1.1

        Hey Chooky have another cooking sherry and a little lie down, you’ll feel better 🙂

        • Chooky 38.1.1.1

          sorry cooking sherry is not my thing…unfortunately my only addiction is here, doing a bit of stirring up of the t..lls…i am going to have to put a stop to it….!!!

          ( good luck with the cooking sherry…so this what you Nacts like to drink….yuk!)

    • The Lone Haranguer 39.1

      Puckish, I agree with you there. But to be fair, its the guys “38 seconds of fame” time today

      Gibson is a fruitloop, so Im picking he will be on the NZFirst list for the next election. Labour deserves way better than him

    • Chooky 39.2

      Steve Gibson sounds like the sort of man to call a spade- a- spade …just the sort of man to represent South Canterbury…they would love him down there!

  38. A VOTER 40

    Just heard an interesting comment about Key and him not wanting to use his majority to govern alone, being painted as someone who would prefer to be able to be inclusive of his past coalition partners as an inclusive leader who has integrity when it comes to the future of those parties
    He just covering the possibility that Dunne for instance could fold if he gets nothing and you could well see a BY ELECTION in his seat
    AND the Maori party could do the same if they have nothing but confidence and supply
    Winston on the other hand could drive Key up the wall if those scenarios occur and then it would be all on and the facade that is Keys manner would be stripped and we would see a totally ruthless capitalist who will have to keep selling this country to the share markets to keep us in the strategic military industrial complex that is going to be our default economy
    How many times does it have to be said ”The Defence budget of the USA for one day Could feed the world for a year”
    This country will only be able to feed the rich if we see the monetarists running this country for much longer
    Not everyone gets paid enough and rich get paid too much whether they earn or it or not and they have the power to ensure that they do which has nothing to do with democracy and every thing to do with a monetary system that is corrupt

    • Chooky 40.1

      @ A Voter…”Just heard an interesting comment about Key and him not wanting to use his majority to govern alone”…

      ….my take on this is that he is feeling exposed and would like some company ..especially from people like Winnie who would be want to expose his perfidies

      ….he would also like support from people like David Shearer, who comes from a respectable Party not associated with Dirty Politics

  39. Jenny 41

    “Idiots, Cowards and Bastards.”

    BILL

    (Just quickly before The Standard Oil chief censor Lynn Prentice, who allows death threats and accuses me of being a Goebbels and then claims that this is just robust debate, but hypocritically is very sensitive of any criticism of National and Labour’s “close” climate change policies.)

    With all respect Bill, it is all very fine writing long handwringing posts on how awful climate change is; But we can’t wait for the rest of the world to act, we need to be demanding real world action here and now. This means that Labour must urgently join with the Greens and call for a halt to all New Coal Mines including Denniston and Mangatangi and the halt of all deep sea oil prospecting and drilling and fracking in our EEZ.

    These are the immediate concrete demands that the United Left must make for New Zealand to become a global climate change leader rather than a global climate change scab.

    And we need to back these demands up with mass protest and if necessary peaceful civil disobedience. This is how we stopped nuclear ships and wounded South African apartheid.

    [lprent: It is your choice Jenny. Obey the site rules or I will boot you off again. Doesn’t worry me.

    1. Don’t try to make every post to be about your favoured obsessions. Control your bladder and use OpenMike. Since you appear to have directed most of this post off topic then that is where this is going.
    2. Don’t lie about authors or moderators. I need them more than I need your badly researched ideas on the site.
    3. Don’t spend all of your time attacking other commenters. I really can’t be bothered with it.
    4. Don’t copy paste other people’s work. Although you haven’t done that for while
    5. Don’t try to manipulate the conversation to how you are always a ‘victim’ because frankly you aren’t. You just waste my time.

    You are now half way to a ban… I’m thinking about a year this time. Your choice. Go on… You can be a victim for a YEAR! ]

  40. Suresh 43

    I hope the labour party can stay positive and rally behind David, he did not lose this election. National and the media are predicting a blood bath. Stay united and stick it to them.

  41. greywarbler 44

    The Australian right are about to bring in stringent rules forbidding people to travel to foreign conflicts and to counter terrorism in Australia.

    People travelled before WW2 to fight in Spain to try and control fascism, and sacrificed themselves for what they believed was a battle for good. The same thing can be said about those going to the Middle East.

    And Australia has actually had bomb blasts before without bringing in swingeing measures though they was of course a great concern. In the late 1960’s there was much agitation by Croatians affected by politics in their own country.
    Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Croatian_Revolutionary_Brotherhood

    The Croatian Revolutionary Brotherhood (CRB) (Croatian: Hrvatsko revolucionarno bratstvo (HRB)) was a far right-wing organisation formed in Australia in the early 1960s. The organisation was created by Croatian migrants to Australia from Yugoslavia after World War II. The organisation carried out more than 120 actions in Europe and Australia….
    The organisation was active throughout the territories of Yugoslavia in the early and mid 1960s. Its aim was to start an uprising in Yugoslavia and to establish an independent Croatia. This mission failed due to the intervention of the UDBA, the Yugoslav secret police.

  42. chris73 45

    All right lefties I’ll let you know how to win the next election and win more in the future and it won’t cost you a cent, are you sitting comfortably? Then I’ll begin

    Labour must move to the center, Clark and Cullen (Labours best combo since…well a helluva long time anyway) knew this and did so very well and what did John Key do? Well he looked at what they did and by and large kept the popular policies (WFF, interest free loans etc etc)

    Next Labour has to go into cahoots with the Greens but of course keep it on the down low (much like Clark and Cullen) so Labour say how much they like the Greens but also say the biggest party will supply the PM and the finance minister which keeps the conservative left wing vote happy…oh and they need to keep Mana going and heres why (with an example)

    Labour positions itself center-left and says we will raise the minimum wage .50 cents per year as most people think thats fair, the Greens come in and say “NO it must be 1.50 bucks per year and then Mana say No it must be 2.50 a year

    The upshot of this is Labour picks up the center, middle of the road votes, Greens pick up the activist nuttier elements of the left and Mana pick up the dregs of society which means more people on the left have more options to vote but since they’re all voting on the left = means less wasted votes and less people abstaining

    So in a nutshell the parties on the left need to work together in pre-determined roles and for heavens sake don’t pinch other parties policies

    Next up is the phrase loose lips sink ships so Labour MPs I know its all very exciting and you’ve never had that kind of influence before but in the eternal words of Paula Bennet “zip it sweetie”

    Identity politics is a real turn off so Labour drop it, don’t mention it (by all means keep doing it but don’t tell people you’re doing it) however you can always let the Greens and Mana pick it up because people expect them to be a bit loopy anyway

    Last but not least is you know your policies will get the fine tooth comb treatment from National so go over it once, twice, three times, get a group together to pick all the holes you can find in it, get it independently costed and then make sure whoever’s is the spokesperson that they know it backwards, forwards, left, right or whatever

    You don’t have to thank me as a good deed is its own reward

    • Chooky 45.1

      thankyou chris73…i especially like this bit

      “The upshot of this is Labour picks up the center, middle of the road votes, Greens pick up the activist nuttier elements of the left and Mana pick up the dregs of society which means more people on the left have more options to vote but since they’re all voting on the left = means less wasted votes and less people abstaining

      So in a nutshell the parties on the left need to work together in pre-determined roles and for heavens sake don’t pinch other parties policies”

      ….now can you give us your advice on getting rid of John Key and Nact in short order?…or doesnt your altruism extend this far?

      • chris73 45.1.1

        If the left bloc did this I’d say National would be gone burgers, fortunately for the Right the chances of the left working together for the greater good is about zip

        • Chooky 45.1.1.1

          lol…we can but pray for divine intervention and exposure of corruption then

          • chris73 45.1.1.1.1

            thats something I also should have mentioned, praying for something happen, hoping someone or something will take down John Key, that somehow collectively NZ will rise up and throw off the yoke of National

            Its all crap, you want to get rid of Key then put up a credible alternative, make it happen but wishing, hoping and dreaming won’t

            http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11329483

            Besides which why would we want to get rid of Key, hes a damn fine leader

    • Bob 45.2

      +1

      Chris, if you were the Labour Party campaign manager for the last election it would have been a very different result. Instead, they cuddled up with the more left wing parties and left the middle wide open for the Conservatives and Winston First to snap up Labour votes.

      The problem is, there are too many people in the Labour Party pulling the party left when their job is to win the center ground! If Labour had stuck to the middle and dismissed the Greens and Mana as ‘too far left’ they could have won the election (with the Greens / Mana) and started implementing their more left wing policies slowly (at a rate the general population is comfortable with) and blamed it on the Greens / Mana (like National have done with ACT).

      There aren’t many people on this site that seem to realise the general public dislike radical change, especially after Rogernomics, Labour moving to the left is stupid politics, leave that to coalition partners.

      Of course I am just a RWNJ (swing voter) so what do I know.

      • chris73 45.2.1

        Its not hard is it but I’m guessing the biggest the left is the egos involved

        • Colonial Viper 45.2.1.1

          Oh great, more Pagani repeating stations.

          • Bob 45.2.1.1.1

            Feel free to keep pushing Labour left CV, just don’t expect the next election to be any better for the left block (in fact expect much worse).

            At this rate NZ First will end up being the main opposition party, good luck getting left wing policies applied if that ends up being the case!

            I cannot believe that after such an eye opening election it still isn’t enough to make you look at the bigger picture!

    • Chris 45.3

      Competing for the centre leaves nothing else but identity politics. That’s why Helen Clark remained leader for so long and is why Key is into his third term. Competing for the centre means that policies don’t matter because they’re going to be the same regardless. Governments we’ve had since the 1980s have simply been about who happens to have won the competition for the centre.

      • Bob 45.3.1

        And yet there are a huge number of comments on this site saying John Key is moving the country dangerously to the right, but he has done this while winning the centre voters, are you saying the left are completely unable to replicate this?
        Look at asset sales, if you win over the centre vote you can still start pushing extreme ideals (gently), you have to win the centre vote first though.

        Until the left start learning from John Key rather than just getting angry about his government National will remain in power.

        • Chris 45.3.1.1

          Are you talking about presenting centre policies to the middle ground, or are you saying win the middle ground over with left policies?

          • One Anonymous Bloke 45.3.1.1.1

            What “centre policies”?

            Labour did not present a left wing platform – they presented a fiscally conservative socially mainstream platform.

            By contrast, National presented no platform that resembles their intentions, unless I missed their “Vote for an end to smoko, school vandals and Yankee peepers” hoardings.

            • Bob 45.3.1.1.1.1

              Their platform was fairly centrist, although they could have dropped the ETS Tax (which they then implement as a Green Party policy in coalition negotiations) and left the changes to the Reserve Bank for a second term when they have the backing of the public (like National did with Asset sales).

              This leaves them with less baggage and they could have fought the housing battle via KiwiBuild, and child poverty via their baby bonus, while leaving the Greens to push more radical policies (ETS, maybe even the CGT) which they would dismiss during the campaign and then implement slowly once in power. This would help keep the caucus aligned (the ABC’s stay centrist keeping them happy and the rest can formulate policy with the Greens), and presents a stronger front to the public.

              I’ll say it again, until the left start learning from John Key rather than just getting angry about his government, National will remain in power.

            • Chris 45.3.1.1.1.2

              I know Labour presented no left policies. They presented centre policies, or as you describe them, “a fiscally conservative socially mainstream platform”.

          • Bob 45.3.1.1.2

            Present centrist policies, distance themselves from the Greens and Mana, then pick up the policies of Greens and Mana when they form a Government, while stating they are the wishes of the voters for Greens / Mana.
            Think National rolling out Charter Schools and labelling it as ACT policy.

  43. adam 46

    lprent, can I make a request for after the next election. Can you keep the ban up for one month after a election, for anyone banned during the election period. Hugs and Bikkies adam

  44. adam 47

    Beaten by IDF & Cousin Murdered by Israeli Radicals: American Teen Seeks Justice

  45. RedBaronCV 48

    And we can celebrate a fresh new round of job losses under national – good creative jobs so Nact can up their take from AirNZ. Exact opposite of what they promised now isn’t it. 150,000-100. At this rate we will lose that number of jobs in the next 6 months.

    Potential job losses so bigger dividend goes to the Nact Government

  46. T P McCain 49

    Pagani is a political schizophrenic. Instead of trying to tell us what she believes (even she doesn’t know that), she needs to take a red and blue pill and lie down for the next three years.

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