“My Member’s Bill drawn today [23 September 2021] will crack down on gangs and illegal firearms use,” says ACT’s Justice Spokesperson Nicole McKee.
“Gang numbers have exploded under this soft on crime Government. With more gang members comes an increase in their confidence … we’ve seen shootings in our communities … only a matter of time before an innocent member of the public gets caught in the cross fire.
Nicole says her Bill, the Criminal Proceeds (Recovery) (Definition of Significant Criminal Activity) Amendment Bill will deliver police the tools to crack down on gangs and illegal firearm use.
“The Bill increases the power of police to seize assets connected with gang activity and illegal firearms owned by gang members by introducing a new threshold for Police to seize assets. Under the definitions put in place in this Bill, the threshold to seize assets would now be triggered if a gang member was found with an illegal firearm therefore committing an offence.
“This is a tool to hit the gangs where it hurts, their wallets. Parliament has a duty and a responsibility to keep New Zealanders safe. My Bill will do that.
She says: “Neither the Government’s new gun legislation, nor the buyback, has made a difference to the number of illegal firearms in circulation. Law abiding members of the firearms community have handed back their guns, but violent gang members were never going to.
“This Bill adds a new tool to crackdown on the criminal activity gangs inflict on New Zealanders.”
I loathe the gangs. For their illegal drug involvement, for their members’ (or prospects’) ongoing commission of other crimes, for their brutality & the fear & intimidation they bring to our towns & communities, for their gang-on-gang violence, which seems to be increasing, & especially – for the continual damage they do to Māori-Pākehā relations in this country. Gezza
– Where is the analysis of the actual effect of the bill?
A: Dunno. Do you know where I could typically find one?
– What does the Police Association think?
A: No idea. Will see if I can find any comment from Police on it. It’s new. There may be nothing yet.
– Why is the Act Party assaulting property rights so much? The Proceeds of Crime Act is an exceedingly aggressive bill as it is.
A. I assume they are not particulary concerned about the property rights of anti-society crims. Also, they probably see “law n order” as a vote-winner among those who’ve been (or feel) intimidated by gangstas, or have been victims of crime by mobstas or prospects.
– Will farmers and hunters be reasonaby worried?
A. Can’t why they should. If any have got a sideline in criminal activity, gang on gang “warfare” or arms dealing, those persons might encounter some difficulties with the constabulary?
– Which weapons does it cover? Will my Dad’s old air rifle mean Police can stomp in and take the house?
A. I doubt it. There used to be some extra-high-powered airguns on the market. If they’re still for sale, MAYBE some of those might be covered.
– Which societal ill will this property seizure extension cure?
A. I reckon they (like Bridges) are out to make the worst gangsta’s lives as difficult as possible. To try & counter gang recruitment, which is burgeoning.
Well, must admit I’m really off the gangs at the moment.
Some prospects recently broke the 1/4 light windows of 5 cars – including mine, trying to get in, hot-wire, & steal them. They succeded with the 5th car. My neighbours’. We’re in Tawa. The Police found it abandoned in Johnsonville. It was written off.
I never heard a thing. My car’s got an alarm & an imobiliser. So did my neighbour’s. Seems maybe that if they can “pop” your 1/4 light with a screwdriver (you can see where they inserted it at the seals) & can then unlock a back door, it doesn’t set off your car alarm.
The policewoman who came to dust all the cars for fingerprints said: “They’ll go to Youth Court, get a slap on the wrist, & be back doing it again within a week.”
Just to be clear Gezza, do you have evidence that it was series of gang related incidents? This being as opposed to someone who has been labeled a gang member because of his appearance or demeanor.
4 of them (all neighbours) were done in one afternoon.
The remaining one was done a week later, at about 7 pm, while the owner was parked in the other neighbour's visitors parking space, just next door to mine. They managed to pull out the ignition barrel, but couldn't start the car.
The police caught the culprits, that's how we know they were MMM prospects. In my neck of the woods, Mongie prospects sometimes wear red bandanas, or have them hanging thru their belt loops.
With respect, how many gang members have been dropped on our communities by Australia in the last 4 years? Ans LOTS!!
Since the lock down over 300 criminals have been sent here. Not all are gang members, but they are mostly already antisocial, and build on the numbers.
Looking at The Gold Coast News gangs are rife.
In a time of high employment in NZ this is by choice.
Sorry, forgot to add, this is to infer the Government is soft on crime.
What a hoot, there have been more high powered crooks facing the courts under this Government, more crimes uncovered, but we find an antiquated set of attitudes in the judiciary have real bias.
Like many areas of Public service years of underfunding patching and poor co-ordination between Police and Courts have led to gangs choosing "areas with friendly courts"
This law would not deal with any of the causes or bias in the system, instead make an almost vigilante attitude in Police and the courts almost mandatory.
Meanwhile the gun runners dealers and printers? what about them… is it going to be "By association?" Asinine idea imo.
You've just shown who this kind of bill is aimed at, simple thinking to complex problems. Gangs suck, but to think they'll ever go away is bizarre, they're outlaws, literally. As long as there is poverty & prison, there will be gangs. And stupid opportunist politicians too & lazy thinkers.
ACT is going for the low-hanging fruit; they obviously consider there are probably some votes in it for them. National's Bridges is on the same anyi-gang warpath & wavelength.
I'm personally happy enuf to see the Parliamentary Bills process kick & sort out whether this is a practical move or not. If it's got massive holes or foreseeable problems in it – it won't get passed. Not with the Labour & Greens & Te Pāti Māori MP numbers.
As long as there is poverty & prison, there will be gangs. And stupid opportunist politicians too & lazy thinkers.
With gang recruitment on the rise, there's now a chicken & egg element to think about. Some lazy thinkers seem to not want to do this. Mantras like "No more poverty. No more prisons" aren't the simple solutions they might sound or seem to some.
Those joining up to gangs (from my North Welly perspective anyway) are mostly tane rangatahi who haven't done well or have failed in school. They may come from "broken" homes. And / or homes where nowadays, grandparents, and mum & dad (or the current partner of either one) are gang associates or patched mobstas, or living with one.
There is unlikely to be any whanau in NZ that doesn't now have gang members or associates in it.
For teenage boys (& some girls, in all likliehood) with little prospect of getting a good qualification and/or a decent, respectable job, they are faced with too much time on their hands when they do exit school.
Right at the time of their lives when they most desperately want to figure out who they are, who they should look up to & seek to emulate, and how they fit in the world. To "be someone", also to belong to a supportive peer group, and to be respected as having value.
For those not strongly connected with the Māoritanga of their hapu's marae, the gangs offer very potent attraction. And they exploit this ruthlessly.
These lost young men get to join a "tribe". They get a uniform. If they can't work, they get given "things to do" by the gang to fit in – & they think they gain "mana" by now becoming someone who (at least when with other gangstas if not on their own) is feared – and thus "respected". They are "outlaws" a sexy kind of person to be for some young people enjoying the pull of rebelliousness.
I hung around at every opportunity with a bullshit bikie gang for six months before I left school. And looking back, some of these factors were reasons I did so. But they were going nowhere & spending weekend daya riding around Taranaki & the nights working my way thru a dozen beer eventually lost its appeal.
But I 'm a Pākehā & I had options. And help. My dad, a low-level public servant, got me an interview with another government department & my miserable UE results (compared to my older & younger brothers') & general affability were just sufficient for the local manager to take me on & try me out.
I ended up transferring to another Dept in Wellington a year later. Head Office looked like the place to be, where the opportunities for promotion were more often available than in provincial District Offices. And I had a 34.5 year career in the public service, eventually working my way up to a pretty generous salary by continuing to learn new skills & get along with people.
These gang prospects don't get those opportunities. Nor probably can they look around & see something better to do witb their lives.
What they see is that belonging to a gang gives them status, "employment", girls, & the prospect of, who knows, if they play their cards right, important ranking in the upper echelons of the gang hierarchy, with the desirable properties, swanky cars, harley hogs, & the great wealth that they can see goes with that dream.
So, my current thinking is that it is important that NZ tackles the gang problem from several different directions.
One being to make it unattractive as a potential long-term occupation, by ensuring that those senior members clearly profiting off the crime & intimidation visibly don't get to keep & enjoy the fruits of their functionary members' labours & their drug-related & other criminal enterprises. (I was told a few years ago by a local mechanic that the mongies or black power had the stolen car chop shop market in Wellington. Running to order. Dunno if that's right, never checked it out, but certainly open to the possibility it is – or was – true.)
Unemployed Māori youths need something better, more productive, more community-supported & approved to do. They need hope. They need better role models than gangsta super-crims. They need education. They need to actually experience being really appreciated & valued for what they contribute to the community, rather than what they take from it. They need skills. And training. It's bloody tragic how many of these of these young folk are having wasted lives.
And they especially need help to avoid getting sucked into gang-run soul & mind-destroying effects of doing daily dope & P. And then having to sell it to meet their own needs.
So how we tackle these other issues is where I think we also need to be getting lots of minds together – including strong hapu iwi & marae input – and I don't see enuf of this happening yet.
Anyway, that's how I'm looking at this issue at the moment. I sure don't have all the answers. I want some. I'm talking about it here because there are a lot of folk posting here who I think genuinely care about these issues deeply & I'm hoping to get others' perspectives & see what else I can – or need – to learn.
This could be fun to watch, essentially McKee is saying the prohibition on semi autos and the buy back was good thing as it's given police the power to differentiate between 'good' and 'bad' firearm owners.
We'll see how good a politician and leader she is as she squares that one away with her constituency. I know a few of them and they certainly do't see it that way.
I'd also be wary of any reduction of the reach of PCA slipped into this, as it applies to the good people in business, like the guy who engaged a cheap contractor to do some welding on his wast oil tank, launching the welder into the next block, and life.
I'd like to see the courts get the ability to declare gangs proscribed organisations, and criminalise membership of the gangs. You could, for example, sentence someone convicted of membership of a proscribed criminal organisation to up to five years in prison, suspended with the use of compulsory electronic monitoring via a GPS tracker.
The danger there is that opposition political parties could in future be declared "a proscribed criminal organisation" … particularly by any party in power with a majority mandate … for instance. Think of how toxic US politics had become and how history does confirm this possability … nay certainty.
Ken Loach shows us why he is not only the greatest living English film director, but also an excellent political analyst as well…which is of course unsurprising.
He rightly observes that the centre "left" are the greatest threat to progressive change in current politics in the UK (as well as New Zealand) and that mass media (including liberal media like The Guardian) is public enemy #1, and will always defend power and class first and foremost.
Kier Starmer is basically turning the UK Labour party backwards and inwards and into the last bastion of neoliberal orthodoxy, as the Tories transform themselves into a big-state English nativist party. It is a path to catastrophe, because he’ll end up presiding over an elite cadre party of the liberal urban class that is no longer supported much by anyone outside the opinion writers of the Guardian.
The Labour party here hasn't been "challenged" yet by a true left movement as UK Labour was. NZ Labour are still sitting comfortably in third-way neoliberalism, continuing the same old free-market policies from the 1980s, governing for the benefit of the wealthy few.
UK Labour:
1980s lurch to the right
Corbyn – shift to the left?
Today – Corbyn defeated, Labour firmly back to the right.
NZ Labour:
1980s lurch to the right
Today – no change.
No The Greens here are the Freeloading Left who get carried by Labour.
The True Left are those who are always there, always kind, always good, always perfect, don't exist in material form, and will raise us all from the dead – something like Jesus for Evangelical Christians.
Yea right how many home less, how many hungry kids, how many struggle to pay the rent, how many can't get a hospital appointment.It was started as a party of the left to look after the workers and there families not the rich bastards that it does know.
Most popular Labour Party in the world, 4% unemployed, repositioned economy away from imported labour, solved a nationwide crisis twice, smashed opposition, due for 3rd term easily.
I think you will find the imported labour will flood back in ASAP when the border restrictions lift. They haven't changed their beliefs (i.e. use imported labour to suppress wages)
I'm as interested as anyone in how this pandemic restructures our economy. I have a sneaking suspicion we are driving straight into a 3.5% headline unemployed. My company is already having to pull people out of parole to get enough staff. Functioning arms and legs, drug free, and the ability to get to work at 7am every working day is the thing.
"Because we already run the country….Successfully"…haven't you noticed that we cannot open our fucking boarders because your successful Labour govt has been along with National (just two sides of the same coin) underfunding and running our Public Health care system into the ground for the past 30 years, so now surprise, surprise it can't cope with even the smallest number of Covid cases in one hit?…haven't you noticed that none of our children will be able to own their own houses now, and if they do will slaves to the banks for most of their lives…successfully…are you being fucking serious or just taking the piss?
We're not opening our borders because there is a worldwide pandemic on. And the government is scrupulously following the scientific and logistical advice that ensures least harm. It's been on the news.
Why is is necessary to own houses?'….if you have to even ask that absolutely inane qeustion then it is obvious you don't know shit about what it is like to rent in New Zealand (and especially with a family) and you should probably never comment on this subject ever again because whatever you have to say is meaningless.
No – we just need to take our party back from the deleted expletives who no longer hold Left values, but love the baubles of power. Let them form a new party – "The NeoLiberals" hasn't been taken yet. They'll be less popular than ACT.
Come along to the next Labour Party conference and change it from within to your own revolutionary standards if you like. Put up remits supported by an LEC, like democratic adults do.
Aaahh Ad you really are like our very own version of the Guardian rolled into one yucky package aren't you, and just like the Guardian every now and then you sound reasonable..that is until something comes along that is actually really Left Wing and actually progressive..then the knives come out..every time.
But yeah someones gotta do something different ( i know that is scary to you) because Covid has proven once and for all that freemarket liberal centrism as a controlling and hegemonic ideology is one of the most short term and selfish political ideologies to ever spew out of man's ugly mind..and as if we needed any more proof, it will never have any answers to battle climate change…so Ad you keep on going ahead doing what you do, sitting there and shooting out your funny little one liners at the Left, blithely shooting down the only western politicians who ever had a chance at really turning the ship off it's course of destruction…and then just like nearly the entire western political class (centre left/Right) of the past 30 years you will be remembered (if you are remembered at all?) by future generations with the contempt and disgust they justly deserve.
I don't drink…funnily enough I don't feel the need to block out reality with drugs or alcohol…but it seems like it is doing a really good job on that front for you pal.
Oh and by the way the problem isn't that people like me rage when the world is burning around us..the problem is that people like you don’t, infact as it turns the liberal class will do nothing…ever.
Here is one of the very founders of your New Zealand Labour’s free market ideology even admitting that it is a flawed ideology…think that would given cause for reflection from you guys..not even for a moment. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gkLDdQ3HORo
Yes, given the abject failure of “Roger’n’Ruth’s” legacy, it is way past time to replace the hardwiring of the NZ neo liberal State; e.g. State Sector Act, Reserve Bank Act, penetration of public infrastructure by private capital, outsourcing, managerialism, free in and outflow of capital, bent OIO…
The fifth columnists at the top of the public sector should have to reapply for their positions and WINZ/MSD retired forthwith and a Basic Income paid to all citizens via IRD.
The NZ Labour Party needs to turn it’s power relationships around too. The minority numbers of the “Parliamentary wing” and Caucus have long held sway over the ordinary members views.
Well put. By their posts ye shall know them!–it is easy enough to realise who the centre line huggers, (and veerers over the line to the right side of the road) are.
Corbyn, Sanders, Palestine, Russia, China, US Imperialism, are classic territory for determining where people stand.
Ken Loach is a treasure all right. Have seen many of his films over the years–and shared “I Daniel Blake” with some older guys and they totally got it after their dealings with WINZ/MSD here.
“Spirit of ’45” makes Blairism and Rogernomics look very sick indeed.
The British Labour Party is stranded basically run by class collaborationist weasels and sell outs.
Lol – he's a pussycat compared to the aggressive carry-ons of the gulls and oystercatchers in the estuary near my place in the north. And don't even get me started on the tui who knows he has sole rights to the flowering pohutakawa up the drive way. Last year I thought he was on his way to a nervous breakdown!
I put out bowls of sugar-water to attract the tuis. Unfortunately, the pukekos soon discovered the sugar-water & were drinking the lot.
Boss Tui got fed up with them stealing HIS sugar-water. One morning I looked out my kitchen window and Bluey Pook was getting in to Boss Tui’s sugar-water – again!
For the next 5 minutes or so I was amazed to see the Tui running sideways along the fence-top at him, flapping his wings. And when that didn’t deter Bluey, who just carried on sipping, Boss Tui started flying in to him, body slamming him. From up in the tree, from both sides of the fence, from down on the ground.
Was amazing to watch. I think I might have even got the last minute on cellvidcam somewhere. Eventually Bluey wandered off, looking rather puzzled, along the fence, & flew back down to stream.
Who is this guy being trotted out to attack the COVID modeling? Seems like a political hit job flying under the cover of being scientific criticism. If it’s a genuine criticism it’s being used to generate headlines to support the assumptions of people who are anti-vax and suspicious of the health authorities.
It is absolutely valid to put modeling out there to respond to the just open up calls. There definitely haven’t been these kind of numbers made available and it is important to have it out there. Most media is reporting the controversy and not making a judgement on the validity or not of claims, or even fully explaining the original model.
All the RWNJ messaging has been about not giving in to fear and now this rebuttal pops up. Maybe it’s a coincidence.
I think you're right newsense. Heard him rabbiting on TV last evening and formed the same view. Hadn't heard of him before and suspect he's got the pip because he's been ignored so decided to go on a vengeful rampage.
According to Victoria University, unless I have the wrong guy,
Rodney Jones is a Principal of Wigram Capital Advisors, an Asian-based macro advisory firm that provides economic analysis and advice to leading global investment funds on developments in Asia. Rodney has been based in Beijing since 2010, where Wigram Capital Advisors has a representative office.
Rodney has been working as an economist and analyst in Asia for the last 28 years. His focus in that time has on the interaction between banks, the financial system and real economies across Asia. Most recently Wigram Capital Advisors has been a leader in understanding changes in the Chinese banking system, and how that has interacted with broader economic changes.
Prior to establishing Wigram Capital Advisors in Hong Kong in 2001, he was a Managing Director and Partner with Soros Fund Management, heading up the research office in Hong Kong from 1994-2000. During this time Rodney was responsible for providing macro analysis and advice on Japan, China and Non-Japan Asia for the Quantum group of funds.
Prior to joining Soros Fund, Rodney was an Economist with Bankers Trust Company (1992-93), and Kim Eng Securities (1990-92), both in Singapore.
He is a graduate of the University of Auckland, New Zealand, with a MA (Hons) in Economics and a BCom.
Yes Riffer…they don't say on Stuff that Jones is an epidemiologist, they simply say that he is a Covid modeller. The kind of thing an economist could do that wanted NZ to open its borders.
The business establishment is desperate to ignore the deaths and long-term Covid effects of opening those borders. What they don't talk about is that the UK is currently running at Covid deaths of 52,000 annually in Summer. When Winter arrives this will doubtless double. The same approach in NZ would probably lead to 5-7000 deaths annually.
Hendys model forecasts the scale of a single outbreak which is eventually contained. The scale of multiple outbreaks would be much worse, which is where the UK is at right now.
The thing about stats is that lots of tools are used by lots of different disciplines: economics, physics, epidemiology, social sciences, etc.
But knowing how to use a CNC machine doesn't mean that you know whether a part you cut out will actually hold or be uitable for the application you want.
I suspect Jones (as an economist) should know and understand about modelling a range of outcomes as different assumptions vary – pareto fronts come to mind as an example. This is what Hendy's reports do: show a range of outcomes according to different values for inputs (disease control methods, vaccine efficacy, etc).
To argue that one value is unrealistic is farcical. Are the assumptions realistic, even if unlikely? From recollection, Hendy has co-authors with medical training. This lis like me, as CNC operator, having an engineer telling me why copper will fail if used instead of steel because copper will take the strain initially but work-harden and fail more quickly. Maybe Jones is missing a specialist who can say why Hendy's assumptions are plausible, rather than just pointing to an extreme on the continuum and saying "this is just unrealistic".
But this is what a lot of tories have been doing: pointing to one figure along a range of possible outcomes and saying the entire report is bunk because they, personally, don't believe so many people will die. With no explanation about which assumptions are falling down, or how the methodology is flawed.
Rodney has done alot of work for govt with regards Covid he's also pretty damn clever with models and numb and been pretty consistent in his message around alarmist models including the early 80000 dead models. I think the criticism is valid he made the point that models like this will be compared to actuals say Singapore actually giving space for people to say w models are junk etc etc.
Rodney Jones and Professor Shaun Hendy have been appointed as Special Advisors to the [strategic public health advisory] Group to assist with any modelling work that’s required.
The criticism by Jones was pathetic and no more than expressing some kind of gut feeling with a lot of hand waving. As so many, he got bogged down in and by the numbers, which are merely outputs of model simulations that depend on many assumptions and caveats as pointed out in the actual study report, and completely ignored and overlooked the guiding messages from these model runs. As a modeller himself, Jones should have known better. A major fail, in my not so humble opinion; he reminds me of similar Plan B failures.
It appeared to be an attempt to prevent public discussion about the consequences of community spread.
Is Jones saying such modelling should not be done, or that the public should not know about it?
The inference is that we should be managed to a tolerance for death by degree, until we have the rates overseas. Classic think of the interests of Global Capital …
Did feel very much like that SPC.
A less political take would have questioned the model rather than used a number of buzz words associated with the current deniers and rejectionists.
The way Cricklewood used the word alarmist above for example.
If there are unvaccinated groups of people and we get several outbreaks among those populations where we’ve seen delta spread very quickly with an Rnumber of 4-5 and the fax it can still be transmitted by vaccinated people…
It seems rather credible given what we’ve seen overseas to date and the way the virus has at least twice got into our hospitals, with the barest of escapes.
Australia committing itself so deeply to submarine attack capacity starts to answer some of the belligerence coming from Xi Jinping in his big July speech.
What will be ignored by all the marxist apologists here is the extraordinary rhetoric, the open belligerence, military build up, and weaponised trade that Xi Xinping has thrown at us. Their denial flies completely in the face of this reality.
An actual war with China would be utterly devastating, but in my view it will only happen if Xi Xinping thinks he can start one and win with minimal cost. That's the brutal calculus we face in the short-term.
A very good link that explores the issue well – there are a lot aspects to this – and none of them good.
What we get is the usual scary music and a rant from a war mongering US general and an "analyst" from ASPI who are funded by the US State Dept, and weapons manufacturers. Anybody talking up a Chinese invasion of Australia is living in lala land. Even Taiwan, now that the US has left Afghanistan and put all its eggs in the Pacific basket, China can just patiently wait for the next "incident". Time is showing that the US is not capable of cooperation and is fast loosing allies. The EU will soon be looking for more independent contact with China. They are none too happy with the ramped up US belligerence.
I'm none too happy with the belligerence of China towards Taiwan either. Hasn't worked out well for Hong Kong this year.
60 Minutes is a good representative of mainstream media thinking, and what it had to say was much darker in tone than we would ever admit in New Zealand. Simply for understanding that it was worthwhile.
Except that in NZ we've already had the scary music treatment from Guyon Espiner. And what did that amount to? Fear that China was being too generous in it's loan terms to a Far North Maori broadband provider. I mean it's kind of unbelievable really. Hong Kong, Taiwan and Tibet are deeply tied up in Chinese identity. Australia is not. Taiwan is still not settled but to somehow propose that the way Taiwan resolves will impact on the integrity of Australia is madness. Belligerence is something that large powerful states seem to do but to propose that Chinese belligerence towards Australia in their trade war requires the beating of war drums but US belligerence towards Cuba, Iran, Venezuela etc in the form of sanctions does not is quite ridiculous and exposes the hypocrisy of the supposed rules based US system. I've yet to read of deaths in Australia caused by Chinese trade sanctions but could supply you with many reports on deaths caused by the inability of the above sanctioned countries to secure vital medicine and food. In Lebanon at present, Hezbollah has had to arrange for tankers from Iran to supply fuel because of US sanctions that wont even let hospitals generate electricity. At present they get a mere two hours of electricity per day and their whole grid is expected to collapse by the end of this month. This is real life and death stuff. People have been dying from these sanctions for quite some time, They died yesterday, they are dying today and some more will die tomorrow.
"Hong Kong, Taiwan and Tibet are deeply tied up in Chinese identity. Australia is not." About 6% of Australians say they are of Chinese origin.
If we defend people based on their ethnicity, we have no value left except race. That may be how we started this country but it's not the way we are now.
I sure don't condone a march to war: I'm suggesting we watch what Australia is doing very, very closely because it is in our interests to do so.
The reference to identity was more to suggest that while China is interested in Taiwan, it is not interested in Australia for anything other than trade. The identity being alluded to is far more than ethnicity. It includes place and history. It also includes a small matter of an unfinished civil war. And then for the US to step in and dictate to who and what certain parts of Taiwan may trade is more fuel to the fire. They may believe that they have everything nicely under control but there is much evidence around the world that if they are wrong in this assumption and Taiwan and vicinity ends up as charred ruins then this will be a close second best in their eyes. For a non cooperating entity, if its not there's, the only alternative is destruction. Thats what zero sum means and thats what confrontation involves and thats why situations such as the dead half miliion Iraqi children and the collapse of the Lebanese grid are "worth it"
Yes. The US is a ruthless great power – and Xi Xinping aspires for China to be one as well. In the current world we live in this kind of contest is going to be a zero sum game. No-one likes this, but it's true.
If I stop pretending that either the US or the PRC are are standing on any moral high ground and simply make a choice based on logical outcomes the debate becomes a lot clearer.
We could side with China. Well this makes AU/NZ an enemy of the USA, and given what you believe of the US, does anyone here think this a smart choice?
Maybe the Chinese get lucky and win. Given how regional hegemons operate does anyone for an instant imagine that the PRC will not interfere in our sovereignty in any number of horrible ways? The US has a plenty shabby track record of just this, and the PRC shows no lack of compunction about interfering with other nations either – just ask any number of their neighbours. Tibet, Hong Kong, Japan, Vietnam and not to mention Taiwan.
Indeed they seem to be just getting started judging by the massive military that has being built up and being told by their President for Life to prepare for imminent war.
So it really just comes down to a 'least bad choice' and we're going to go with the USA. Pretending we can sit on the fence and still trade with China, while expecting the USA to provide security for our trade is a delusion.
There is one major difference between the US and the Chinese approach to foreign policy and that is the extraordinarily massive infrastructure build that is the BRI. It is on a scale that has not been seen before in the world and is forecast to cost more than a trillion dollars. The US doesnt do infrastructure building on any scale. It makes no sense in a world that may require trashing the very country that you have built the infrastructure in. A country that operates on a cooperative model of win win is happy to build infrastructure. They are unlikely to then turn around and destroy what they have just spent billions helping to build. You say it is always zero sum and historically this is so. Zero sum is a stable system that can beat individual or isolated attempts at cooperation. But analysis of iterated prisoners dilemma interactions shows that even a small group of cooperative players will establish and beat zero sum players to the extent that zero sum will become extinct. Of course this analysis assumes that the environment reamains a prisoners dilemma environment. War changes the environment and gives zero sum a new chance to dominate by destroying the cooperative groups viability. Proposing that the Chinese BRI is some kind of act of war is thus ridiculous and choices over who to support are childishly simple. Supporting someone proposing to build infrastructure is always preferable to someone proposing to build military bases and military hardware.
There is one major difference between the US and the Chinese approach to foreign policy and that is the extraordinarily massive infrastructure build that is the BRI. It is on a scale that has not been seen before in the world and is forecast to cost more than a trillion dollars.
Nope. This analysis omits a number of elements.
First of all it erases the fact of the US providing for the past 70yrs the single most crucial piece of 'infrastructure' of all – security. Without this everything else is pointless. It was done this in three main ways – first of all it took war between all the other nations off the table. Secondly it's massive navy explicitly guaranteed Freedom of Navigation for everyone – even Soviet merchant vessels during the Cold War.
Thirdly it played a central role in first containing and then crushing not one four authoritarian, mass murdering imperial regimes – Nazi Germany, North Korea, the Stalinist Soviets and the Maoist PRC. (In my book the the only important difference between fascism and marxism is the latter replaces a totalitarianism energised by race and identity – with an intellectual wank based on class.)
In this post-WW2 environment much of the world has developed beyond all human precedent. This is a fact beyond dispute. The only exceptions were those nations geographically so poor that development was always going to be hard – and those stupid enough not to be on the side of the US.
Yet WW2 US never acted as an imperial power in the classic territorial meaning. With few exceptions they don't claim the territories and waters of other nations for themselves, and they don't mass migrate their people into displacing local populations either economically or demographically. Nor are they all that big on disrupting and displacing the indigenous economic activity with trillons of dollars of physical infrastructure.
The pattern of the US hegemon was this – provide the political, security and commercial infrastructure to the world – and let everyone get on with becoming rich as best they could. And all the evidence tells us this has worked as never before in human history. There was just one rule they were very ruthless about – be on their side against totalitarianism. Given the history of the 20th century it's obvious why.
And up until Xi Xinping becoming President for Life, setting the PRC on a retrograde totalitarian path to cement both his own meglomaniac ambition and the eternal power of the CCP – everyone was reasonably OK with the idea of the PRC taking it's place in this order of things. But now all the soothing words about 'co-operation' mean nothing if the actions of the PRC speak to an absolutist crushing of internal dissent, diplomatic rhetoric intended to intimidate it's neighbours, and an expansionist military that can serve only one purpose – to invade, occupy and consume independent nations across the whole of Eurasia and the Pacific.
When Xi Xinping orders the PRC military to 'prepare for war' – there is every reason to believe him.
The US doesnt do infrastructure building on any scale.
Cite?
Conclusion
Based on the foregoing comparative analysis of US and Chinese aid programs, several observations can be made. First, both China and the US have actively used their foreign aid and official finance activities to advance their perceived geostrategic and economic interests. Foreign aid has been used by both donor states to foster political influence in recipient governments in ways that can eventually benefit their interests. Both the US and China formally started their foreign aid programs during their respective periods of ascent as economic powerhouses, and their market expansion and wealth accumulation initiatives have been facilitated by the foreign aid conditions imposed on recipient countries. Second, while Washington has been transparent and specific in classifying its various aid programs, Beijing has yet to further institutionalise its foreign aid bureaucracy and to organise its taxonomy of official development aid schemes so that they are comparable to those of other OECD donor states. Third, the legitimation discourses of Chinese and US aid programs are different. While Beijing legitimises its aid interventions by highlighting South-South cooperation, non-conditional altruism and a state-centred development model, Washington justifies its interventionist aid by framing market economies, democratic governance and human rights as quintessential principles for development. This marked difference in legitimation discourses is also reflected in the nature of their aid recipients: Beijing considers states its key recipients; Washington provides aid to a wide variety of states and non-state actors. Finally, foreign aid is not only the most visible and concrete form of influence that a powerful state deploys in weaker countries; it is also one of the most enduring features of the international system. No matter how destructive or beneficial foreign aid can be for a recipient country, the United States and China, as status quo and challenger powers respectively, deploy various legitimation discourses in order to galvanise political support in their own domestic constituencies and the people in recipient countries.
The USA, the UK and Australia all recognise Taiwan is part of the one China.
For decades after 1949 the government in exile claimed to be the government of China, not the island of Taiwan. After end of international recognition of its government as the government of China, it had to establish legitimacy for itself on the island of Taiwan – this lead to democratic reforms in the 1980's, then its first Presidential election in 1996.
Put it this way, the UNSC is expected to prove a collective security guarantee to member states. Taiwan has no such status.
New Zealand is well known for multilateralism and due regard for international law.
This informed our decisions in 1950 (Korea) and 1991 (Kuwait) and again in 2003, when we did not join in the regime change operation in Iraq.
Your opine on Taiwan, is frankly irrelevant, they see themselves as part of China and have stated no intent to ever declare independence from the one China.
There seems to be a presumption among some here that AUKUS has something to do with Chinese asserting dominion over the territory of the one China by flying over it from time to time etc.
No, AUKUS is something sought by Oz to commit the US to its territorial integrity and provide itself with some greater deterrent (offshore sea defence and missile capability). This has more to do with the atoll based aircraft carriers China recently created and their related rejection of the Permanent Court of Arbitration decision. It's about a longer game than Taiwan.
And a lot of people have a negative view of Wellington, but their capital is there all the same.
Put it another way, how many nations in the ME agreed with US policy in support of Israel, yet the USA did what they did in that region all the same. Then there were the dictatorships in the America’s supported by the USA, so long as they were anti-commie. Nations asserting hegemony are what they are.
My point is that our regional security is not synonymous with the matter of the one China.
they see themselves as part of China and have stated no intent to ever declare independence from the one China.
A fiction that everyone played along with as the price paid to maintain a relationship with the PRC.
After 1949 the PRC and ROC each laid a legitimate claim to both territories. For their part the ROC recognised that the civil war between the two govts was over for all practical purposes some decades ago and set aside their claim to the mainland.
By contrast the PRC has only intensified their claim over Taiwan. The degree of diplomatic pressure they bring to bear is astonishing. Recently a school mural in Queensland had on one small part of it a Taiwanese flag – and the Chinese govt insisted that it be painted over. A schoolkids painting in another country – FFS.
The whole 'one country, two systems' farce was tolerable as long as everyone played along with it. Now Xi Xinping has declared that Taiwan will be re-taken by armed force; the game is over and no-one is pretending anymore.
The next big intensity uptick will be the Olympics – will the Biden Administration decide to boycott the ‘Genocide Games’?
If Australia was to maintain a ‘long standing policy’ that because NZ is still formally a potential part of the Australian Federal Constitution and that for this reason if we were to declare our independence this would mean war – you would see what was going on quite clearly.
"On January 1, 1979, the United States established official diplomatic relations with China, formally recognizing the government of the PRC as the sole legitimate government of China and Taiwan as a part of China and, at the same time announcing the cessation of "diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities, the annulment of the "Mutual Defense Treaty" and the withdrawal of all its military personnel from Taiwan. In these historical conditions, the Chinese government, out of consideration for the interests and future of the whole nation, put forward the principle of "peaceful reunification of the country, and one country, two systems" in accordance with the principle of respecting history and reality, seeking truth from facts and taking into account the interests of both sides."
Does the US recognise the One China Policy?
Does the US have an Embassy in Taiwan?
You're so ignorant it's laughable
The fact that the BBC spew propaganda that confirms your bias is not a good enough reason for anyone to take their 'clip' seriously.
That Australia is minion to the biggest global state sponsor of terror, and has convinced itself that China is an enemy irrespective of any evidence, doesn't bode well regarding your safety
The Maoist apologists would also have us believe Chinese rule wouldn’t be that bad as there is no evidence of Uighur being persecuted, tibet is historically chains and hong kong is a fine example of when Chinese government takes over from western style government.
i personally look forward to not seeing effeminate men on television. Mark richardson will be long gone
Are those who quibble with Enzed participation in Cold War, really Marxists?
For mine, that's a reprise of the "with the US or a fellow traveller with commies", or siding with the USA or siding with terrorists post 2001.
As for weaponised trade, Trump trashed the WTO and Biden has yet to give any indication he will do anything about it (not appointing judges for arbitration)
The nuclear question is simple – all conventional wars between major powers will escalate to nuclear because the weaker side is left with no other good options.
Understood – there are multiple ways to analyse this. Obviously the PRC would have an immense advantage in terms of proximity to the immediate battlefield, but it's my sense that very quickly almost the entire world would be drawn into this conflict. No-one would even get the choice of 'sitting it out'.
And in that event the PRC would cease to exist. Which is a measure of Xi Xinping's folly.
Aukus is inventing a war that isn't there. A repeat of the call to arms on flimsy evidence in 2001 as referenced above.
Australia has to be the dimmest nation on earth. Why create such animosity with your major trading partner. I suspect the staggering egos of their conservative government has a lot to do with it.
A good piece – but I don't think it really got into the mechanics of how an incident might start or escalate. As it stands, Taiwan looks like a costly adventure for China, much depends on what resources or pretexts could be marshalled to make any such move a fait accompli as soon as possible. A vassal state like North Korea might well trigger an incident for example.
Submarines on a twenty year order cycle don't present much of an obstacle, and, if China were to nuke Oz, NZ would be drawn into the conflict willing or not. A trained anti- bushfire task force could find plenty of peacetime use, and a stock of CBW gear and medical capacity would be prudent. Some of it could find use as a Covid reserve for the moment.
"The finger to the land of the chains
What? The land of the free?
Whoever told you that is your enemy?
Yes I know my enemies
They’re the teachers who taught me to fight me
Compromise, conformity, assimilation, submission
Ignorance, hypocrisy, brutality, the elite
All of which are American dreams (8 times)"
As someone who has been made redundant twice(##$$$fletcher forestry bunch of #$$%##) this would have made a massive difference to my life rather than it being just being thrown into disarray,!
While I'm unlikely to get laid off again (unless you plant all our farms in trees😉) I'd gladly pay 1% of my income to set up an acc type scheme for layoffs.
No surprises there, much of what poses for the left nowadays wouldn't recognise the working class if they turned up in work gear at their union office.
And a bloke from the moneyed, middle-class part of Melbourne whose parents could afford to pass up a scholarship to an exclusive school and send him to another even more exclusive school, with double the fees, more to their liking. A bloke who helped a Labor Right aligned faction to take over a Young Labor branch from the Socialist Left . A bloke credibly accused of neck-deep involvement in good, old fashioned Aussie union corruption.
Would that bloke recognise the working class if they turned up in work gear at their union office?
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Minister for Disability Issues Penny Simmonds appears to have delayed a report back to Cabinet on the progress New Zealand is making against international obligations for disabled New Zealanders. ...
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Distinguished guests - It is an honour to return once again to this site which, as the resting place for so many of our war-dead, has become a sacred place for generations of New Zealanders. Our presence here and at the other special spaces of Gallipoli is made ...
Mai ia tawhiti pamamao, te moana nui a Kiwa, kua tae whakaiti mai matou, ki to koutou papa whenua. No koutou te tapuwae, no matou te tapuwae, kua honoa pumautia. Ko nga toa kua hinga nei, o te Waipounamu, o te Ika a Maui, he okioki tahi me o ...
Paul Goldsmith will take on responsibility for the Media and Communications portfolio, while Louise Upston will pick up the Disability Issues portfolio, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced today. “Our Government is relentlessly focused on getting New Zealand back on track. As issues change in prominence, I plan to adjust Ministerial ...
Recreational catch limits will be reduced in areas of Fiordland and the Chatham Islands to help keep those fisheries healthy and sustainable, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. The lower recreational daily catch limits for a range of finfish and shellfish species caught in the Fiordland Marine Area and ...
Energy Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed an important milestone in New Zealand’s hydrogen future, with the opening of the country’s first network of hydrogen refuelling stations in Wiri. “I want to congratulate the team at Hiringa Energy and its partners K one W one (K1W1), Mitsui & Co New Zealand ...
The coalition Government is delivering on its commitment to improve resource management laws and give greater certainty to consent applicants, with a Bill to amend the Resource Management Act (RMA) expected to be introduced to Parliament next month. RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop has today outlined the first RMA Amendment ...
Overseas models for regulating the oil and gas sector, including their decommissioning regimes, are being carefully scrutinised as a potential template for New Zealand’s own sector, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. The Coalition Government is focused on rebuilding investor confidence in New Zealand’s energy sector as it looks to strengthen ...
Emergency Management and Recovery Minister Mark Mitchell has today released the Report of the Government Inquiry into the response to the North Island Severe Weather Events. “The report shows that New Zealand’s emergency management system is not fit-for-purpose and there are some significant gaps we need to address,” Mr Mitchell ...
Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith is today travelling to Europe where he’ll update the United Nations Human Rights Council on the Government’s work to restore law and order. “Attending the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva provides us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while ...
Associate Agriculture Minister, Mark Patterson, formally reopened the world’s largest wool processing facility today in Awatoto, Napier, following a $50 million rebuild and refurbishment project. “The reopening of this facility will significantly lift the economic opportunities available to New Zealand’s wool sector, which already accounts for 20 per cent of ...
Hon Andrew Bayly, Minister for Small Business and Manufacturing At the Southland Otago Regional Engineering Collective (SOREC) Summit, 18 April, Dunedin Ngā mihi nui, Ko Andrew Bayly aho, Ko Whanganui aho Good Afternoon and thank you for inviting me to open your summit today. I am delighted ...
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Foreign Minister Winston Peters has today announced four new diplomatic appointments for New Zealand’s overseas missions. “Our diplomats have a vital role in maintaining and protecting New Zealand’s interests around the world,” Mr Peters says. “I am pleased to announce the appointment of these senior diplomats from the ...
New Zealand is contributing NZ$7 million to support communities affected by severe food insecurity and other urgent humanitarian needs in Ethiopia and Somalia, Foreign Minister Rt Hon Winston Peters announced today. “Over 21 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance across Ethiopia, with a further 6.9 million people ...
Minister for Arts, Culture and Heritage Paul Goldsmith is congratulating Mataaho Collective for winning the Golden Lion for best participant in the main exhibition at the Venice Biennale. "Congratulations to the Mataaho Collective for winning one of the world's most prestigious art prizes at the Venice Biennale. “It is good ...
The Government is reforming financial services to improve access to home loans and other lending, and strengthen customer protections, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly and Housing Minister Chris Bishop announced today. “Our coalition Government is committed to rebuilding the economy and making life simpler by cutting red tape. We are ...
“China remains a strong commercial opportunity for Kiwi exporters as Chinese businesses and consumers continue to value our high-quality safe produce,” Trade and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay says. Mr McClay has returned to New Zealand following visits to Beijing, Harbin and Shanghai where he met ministers, governors and mayors and engaged in trade and agricultural events with the New ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has completed a successful trip to Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines, deepening relationships and capitalising on opportunities. Mr Luxon was accompanied by a business delegation and says the choice of countries represents the priority the New Zealand Government places on South East Asia, and our relationships in ...
New Zealand is demonstrating its commitment to reducing global greenhouse emissions, and supporting clean energy transition in South East Asia, through a contribution of NZ$41 million (US$25 million) in climate finance to the Asian Development Bank (ADB)-led Energy Transition Mechanism (ETM). Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Climate Change Minister Simon Watts announced ...
The Government is today releasing a list of organisations who received letters about the Fast-track applications process, says RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop. “Recently Ministers and agencies have received a series of OIA requests for a list of organisations to whom I wrote with information on applying to have a ...
Attorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Wellington Barrister David Jonathan Boldt as a Judge of the High Court, and the Honourable Justice Matthew Palmer as a Judge of the Court of Appeal. Justice Boldt graduated with an LLB from Victoria University of Wellington in 1990, and also holds ...
Education Minister Erica Stanford will lead the New Zealand delegation at the 2024 International Summit on the Teaching Profession (ISTP) held in Singapore. The delegation includes representatives from the Post Primary Teachers’ Association (PPTA) Te Wehengarua and the New Zealand Educational Institute (NZEI) Te Riu Roa. The summit is co-hosted ...
A stopbank upgrade project in Tairawhiti partly funded by the Government has increased flood resilience for around 7000ha of residential and horticultural land so far, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones today attended a dawn service in Gisborne to mark the end of the first stage of the ...
Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters will represent the Government at Anzac Day commemorations on the Gallipoli Peninsula next week and engage with senior representatives of the Turkish government in Istanbul. “The Gallipoli campaign is a defining event in our history. It will be a privilege to share the occasion ...
Science, Innovation and Technology and Defence Minister Judith Collins will next week attend the OECD Science and Technology Ministerial conference in Paris and Anzac Day commemorations in Belgium. “Science, innovation and technology have a major role to play in rebuilding our economy and achieving better health, environmental and social outcomes ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The Prime Minister was accompanied by MP Paulo Garcia, the first Filipino to be elected to a legislature outside the Philippines. During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon and President Marcos Jr discussed opportunities to ...
The Government has announced that $20 million in funding will be made available to Westport to fund much needed flood protection around the town. This measure will significantly improve the resilience of the community, says Local Government Minister Simeon Brown. “The Westport community has already been allocated almost $3 million ...
The Government is proud to support the first ever Repco Supercars Championship event in Taupō as up to 70,000 motorsport fans attend the Taupō International Motorsport Park this weekend, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. “Anticipation for the ITM Taupō Super400 is huge, with tickets and accommodation selling out weeks ...
Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced an increase to the Rates Rebate Scheme, putting money back into the pockets of low-income homeowners. “The coalition Government is committed to bringing down the cost of living for New Zealanders. That includes targeted support for those Kiwis who are doing things tough, such ...
The Coalition Government is investing in a project to boost survival rates of New Zealand mussels and grow the industry, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones has announced. “This project seeks to increase the resilience of our mussels and significantly boost the sector’s productivity,” Mr Jones says. “The project - ...
Benefit figures released today underscore the importance of the Government’s plan to rebuild the economy and have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker Support, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “Benefit numbers are still significantly higher than when National was last in government, when there was about 70,000 fewer ...
The Government’s commitment to doubling New Zealand’s renewable energy capacity is backed by new data showing that clean energy has helped the country reach its lowest annual gross emissions since 1999, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. New Zealand’s latest Greenhouse Gas Inventory (1990-2022) published today, shows gross emissions fell ...
The Government is bringing the earthquake-prone building review forward, with work to start immediately, and extending the deadline for remediations by four years, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “Our Government is focused on rebuilding the economy. A key part of our plan is to cut red tape that ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and his Thai counterpart, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, have today agreed that New Zealand and the Kingdom of Thailand will upgrade the bilateral relationship to a Strategic Partnership by 2026. “New Zealand and Thailand have a lot to offer each other. We have a strong mutual desire to build ...
RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop and Transport Minister Simeon Brown have today announced the Coalition Government’s intention to extend port coastal permits for a further 20 years, providing port operators with certainty to continue their operations. “The introduction of the Resource Management Act in 1991 required ports to obtain coastal ...
Today’s announcement that inflation is down to 4 per cent is encouraging news for Kiwis, but there is more work to be done - underlining the importance of the Government’s plan to get the economy back on track, acting Finance Minister Chris Bishop says. “Inflation is now at 4 per ...
Refreshed health guidance released today will help parents and schools make informed decisions about whether their child needs to be in school, addressing one of the key issues affecting school attendance, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. In recent years, consistently across all school terms, short-term illness or medical reasons ...
Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones is streamlining high-level oceans management while maintaining a focus on supporting the sector’s role in the export-led recovery of the economy. “I am working to realise the untapped potential of our fishing and aquaculture sector. To achieve that we need to be smarter with ...
Associate Agriculture Minister Mark Patterson is speaking at the International Wool Textile Organisation Congress in Adelaide, promoting New Zealand wool, and outlining the coalition Government’s support for the revitalisation the sector. "New Zealand’s wool exports reached $400 million in the year to 30 June 2023, and the coalition Government ...
The Government is making legislative changes to make it easier for new early learning services to be established, and for existing services to operate, Associate Education Minister David Seymour says. The changes involve repealing the network approval provisions that apply when someone wants to establish a new early learning service, ...
Nearly everyone has experienced the frustration of something you use breaking and being difficult or expensive to fix. Proposed legislation could change that. It’s been raining on and off all Sunday afternoon but people are lining up outside a building in a corner of Gribblehirst Park in Sandringham, Auckland. In ...
What does a forever relationship look like when you don’t believe in marriage? And how do you celebrate it? This essay is part of our Sunday Essay series, made possible thanks to the support of Creative New Zealand.I’m going to do it, right now. I’m going to say ...
You can’t have missed the Gallipoli story as the movies, documentaries, essays and books capture what it was like for New Zealand troops in their eight-month campaign on the Peninsula. But this Anzac Day the Auckland War Memorial Museum has published a book that sheds light on a little-known aspect of the ...
The Prime Minister has committed to resuming direct flights to Thailand. But it’s not a promise he will be able to deliver on anytime soon. The post Prime Minister jumps the gun in Thailand appeared first on Newsroom. ...
It’s not that long ago Eliza McCartney was seriously wondering if the Paris Olympics would be her pole vaulting swansong. After years of being hounded by injury after injury, the Rio Olympics bronze medallist was still confident she would compete at her second Olympics in Paris in July, unless something ...
FICTION 1 Take Two by Danielle Hawkins (Allen & Unwin, $36.99) There’s commercial fiction, like this book, and then there’s quality fiction, quality writers, quality literature; the forthcoming Auckland Writers Festival is full of quality, and ReadingRoom has two tickets to give away to the following events: Paul Lynch (Dublin ...
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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra In the free-for-all between the Australian government and Big Tech boss Elon Musk this week, the government had to be on a winner. Most people would have little sympathy with Musk’s vociferous opposition to ...
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Analysis by Dr Bryce Edwards, Democracy Project (https://democracyproject.nz)Political scientist, Dr Bryce Edwards. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has surprised everyone with his ruthlessness in sacking two of his ministers from their crucial portfolios. Removing ministers for poor performance after only five months in the job just doesn’t normally happen in ...
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ACT's Rural Communities and Veterans spokesman Mark Cameron responds to cancellations and protests of ANZAC Day commemorations in Wellington. He says, "These pitiful attempts to detract from ANZAC Day are not at all indicative of the feelings of mainstream ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Meighen McCrae, Associate Professor of Strategic & Defence Studies, Australian National University American and Australian stretcher bearers working together near the front line during the Battle of Hamel in 1918.Australian War Memorial While the AUKUS alliance is new, the Australian-American partnership ...
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NEW BILL WILL HIT GANGS WHERE IT HURTS
“My Member’s Bill drawn today [23 September 2021] will crack down on gangs and illegal firearms use,” says ACT’s Justice Spokesperson Nicole McKee.
“Gang numbers have exploded under this soft on crime Government. With more gang members comes an increase in their confidence … we’ve seen shootings in our communities … only a matter of time before an innocent member of the public gets caught in the cross fire.
Nicole says her Bill, the Criminal Proceeds (Recovery) (Definition of Significant Criminal Activity) Amendment Bill will deliver police the tools to crack down on gangs and illegal firearm use.
“The Bill increases the power of police to seize assets connected with gang activity and illegal firearms owned by gang members by introducing a new threshold for Police to seize assets. Under the definitions put in place in this Bill, the threshold to seize assets would now be triggered if a gang member was found with an illegal firearm therefore committing an offence.
“This is a tool to hit the gangs where it hurts, their wallets. Parliament has a duty and a responsibility to keep New Zealanders safe. My Bill will do that.
She says: “Neither the Government’s new gun legislation, nor the buyback, has made a difference to the number of illegal firearms in circulation. Law abiding members of the firearms community have handed back their guns, but violent gang members were never going to.
“This Bill adds a new tool to crackdown on the criminal activity gangs inflict on New Zealanders.”
https://www.act.org.nz/bill_will_hit_gangs_where_it_hurts
………………………………….
Good one. Hope it gets enuf support to pass.
I loathe the gangs. For their illegal drug involvement, for their members’ (or prospects’) ongoing commission of other crimes, for their brutality & the fear & intimidation they bring to our towns & communities, for their gang-on-gang violence, which seems to be increasing, & especially – for the continual damage they do to Māori-Pākehā relations in this country. Gezza
A couple of random questions:
– Where is the analysis of the actual effect of the bill?
– What does the Police Association think?
– Why is the Act Party assaulting property rights so much? The Proceeds of Crime Act is an exceedingly aggressive bill as it is.
– Will farmers and hunters be reasonaby worried?
– Which weapons does it cover? Will my Dad's old air rifle mean Police can stomp in and take the house?
– Which societal ill will this property seizure extension cure?
Cheers Ad
– Where is the analysis of the actual effect of the bill?
A: Dunno. Do you know where I could typically find one?
– What does the Police Association think?
A: No idea. Will see if I can find any comment from Police on it. It’s new. There may be nothing yet.
– Why is the Act Party assaulting property rights so much? The Proceeds of Crime Act is an exceedingly aggressive bill as it is.
A. I assume they are not particulary concerned about the property rights of anti-society crims. Also, they probably see “law n order” as a vote-winner among those who’ve been (or feel) intimidated by gangstas, or have been victims of crime by mobstas or prospects.
– Will farmers and hunters be reasonaby worried?
A. Can’t why they should. If any have got a sideline in criminal activity, gang on gang “warfare” or arms dealing, those persons might encounter some difficulties with the constabulary?
– Which weapons does it cover? Will my Dad’s old air rifle mean Police can stomp in and take the house?
A. I doubt it. There used to be some extra-high-powered airguns on the market. If they’re still for sale, MAYBE some of those might be covered.
– Which societal ill will this property seizure extension cure?
A. I reckon they (like Bridges) are out to make the worst gangsta’s lives as difficult as possible. To try & counter gang recruitment, which is burgeoning.
Gezza if you really support this bill, you might want to get a few answers first.
Most people hate hangs. So what?
Well, must admit I’m really off the gangs at the moment.
Some prospects recently broke the 1/4 light windows of 5 cars – including mine, trying to get in, hot-wire, & steal them. They succeded with the 5th car. My neighbours’. We’re in Tawa. The Police found it abandoned in Johnsonville. It was written off.
Fully respect that, and this government has not stopped a simply massive growth in criminal gangs.
I never heard a thing. My car’s got an alarm & an imobiliser. So did my neighbour’s. Seems maybe that if they can “pop” your 1/4 light with a screwdriver (you can see where they inserted it at the seals) & can then unlock a back door, it doesn’t set off your car alarm.
The policewoman who came to dust all the cars for fingerprints said: “They’ll go to Youth Court, get a slap on the wrist, & be back doing it again within a week.”
Just to be clear Gezza, do you have evidence that it was series of gang related incidents? This being as opposed to someone who has been labeled a gang member because of his appearance or demeanor.
4 of them (all neighbours) were done in one afternoon.
The remaining one was done a week later, at about 7 pm, while the owner was parked in the other neighbour's visitors parking space, just next door to mine. They managed to pull out the ignition barrel, but couldn't start the car.
The police caught the culprits, that's how we know they were MMM prospects. In my neck of the woods, Mongie prospects sometimes wear red bandanas, or have them hanging thru their belt loops.
With respect, how many gang members have been dropped on our communities by Australia in the last 4 years? Ans LOTS!!
Since the lock down over 300 criminals have been sent here. Not all are gang members, but they are mostly already antisocial, and build on the numbers.
Looking at The Gold Coast News gangs are rife.
In a time of high employment in NZ this is by choice.
Getting a bit dated (24 Feb 2021)
…but not as many as some might think, it seems:
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/02/australian-deportees-make-up-minuscule-amount-of-new-zealand-s-gang-explosion.html
Sorry, forgot to add, this is to infer the Government is soft on crime.
What a hoot, there have been more high powered crooks facing the courts under this Government, more crimes uncovered, but we find an antiquated set of attitudes in the judiciary have real bias.
Like many areas of Public service years of underfunding patching and poor co-ordination between Police and Courts have led to gangs choosing "areas with friendly courts"
This law would not deal with any of the causes or bias in the system, instead make an almost vigilante attitude in Police and the courts almost mandatory.
Meanwhile the gun runners dealers and printers? what about them… is it going to be "By association?" Asinine idea imo.
You've just shown who this kind of bill is aimed at, simple thinking to complex problems. Gangs suck, but to think they'll ever go away is bizarre, they're outlaws, literally. As long as there is poverty & prison, there will be gangs. And stupid opportunist politicians too & lazy thinkers.
ACT is going for the low-hanging fruit; they obviously consider there are probably some votes in it for them. National's Bridges is on the same anyi-gang warpath & wavelength.
I'm personally happy enuf to see the Parliamentary Bills process kick & sort out whether this is a practical move or not. If it's got massive holes or foreseeable problems in it – it won't get passed. Not with the Labour & Greens & Te Pāti Māori MP numbers.
As long as there is poverty & prison, there will be gangs. And stupid opportunist politicians too & lazy thinkers.
With gang recruitment on the rise, there's now a chicken & egg element to think about. Some lazy thinkers seem to not want to do this. Mantras like "No more poverty. No more prisons" aren't the simple solutions they might sound or seem to some.
Those joining up to gangs (from my North Welly perspective anyway) are mostly tane rangatahi who haven't done well or have failed in school. They may come from "broken" homes. And / or homes where nowadays, grandparents, and mum & dad (or the current partner of either one) are gang associates or patched mobstas, or living with one.
There is unlikely to be any whanau in NZ that doesn't now have gang members or associates in it.
For teenage boys (& some girls, in all likliehood) with little prospect of getting a good qualification and/or a decent, respectable job, they are faced with too much time on their hands when they do exit school.
Right at the time of their lives when they most desperately want to figure out who they are, who they should look up to & seek to emulate, and how they fit in the world. To "be someone", also to belong to a supportive peer group, and to be respected as having value.
For those not strongly connected with the Māoritanga of their hapu's marae, the gangs offer very potent attraction. And they exploit this ruthlessly.
These lost young men get to join a "tribe". They get a uniform. If they can't work, they get given "things to do" by the gang to fit in – & they think they gain "mana" by now becoming someone who (at least when with other gangstas if not on their own) is feared – and thus "respected". They are "outlaws" a sexy kind of person to be for some young people enjoying the pull of rebelliousness.
I hung around at every opportunity with a bullshit bikie gang for six months before I left school. And looking back, some of these factors were reasons I did so. But they were going nowhere & spending weekend daya riding around Taranaki & the nights working my way thru a dozen beer eventually lost its appeal.
But I 'm a Pākehā & I had options. And help. My dad, a low-level public servant, got me an interview with another government department & my miserable UE results (compared to my older & younger brothers') & general affability were just sufficient for the local manager to take me on & try me out.
I ended up transferring to another Dept in Wellington a year later. Head Office looked like the place to be, where the opportunities for promotion were more often available than in provincial District Offices. And I had a 34.5 year career in the public service, eventually working my way up to a pretty generous salary by continuing to learn new skills & get along with people.
These gang prospects don't get those opportunities. Nor probably can they look around & see something better to do witb their lives.
What they see is that belonging to a gang gives them status, "employment", girls, & the prospect of, who knows, if they play their cards right, important ranking in the upper echelons of the gang hierarchy, with the desirable properties, swanky cars, harley hogs, & the great wealth that they can see goes with that dream.
So, my current thinking is that it is important that NZ tackles the gang problem from several different directions.
One being to make it unattractive as a potential long-term occupation, by ensuring that those senior members clearly profiting off the crime & intimidation visibly don't get to keep & enjoy the fruits of their functionary members' labours & their drug-related & other criminal enterprises. (I was told a few years ago by a local mechanic that the mongies or black power had the stolen car chop shop market in Wellington. Running to order. Dunno if that's right, never checked it out, but certainly open to the possibility it is – or was – true.)
Unemployed Māori youths need something better, more productive, more community-supported & approved to do. They need hope. They need better role models than gangsta super-crims. They need education. They need to actually experience being really appreciated & valued for what they contribute to the community, rather than what they take from it. They need skills. And training. It's bloody tragic how many of these of these young folk are having wasted lives.
And they especially need help to avoid getting sucked into gang-run soul & mind-destroying effects of doing daily dope & P. And then having to sell it to meet their own needs.
So how we tackle these other issues is where I think we also need to be getting lots of minds together – including strong hapu iwi & marae input – and I don't see enuf of this happening yet.
Anyway, that's how I'm looking at this issue at the moment. I sure don't have all the answers. I want some. I'm talking about it here because there are a lot of folk posting here who I think genuinely care about these issues deeply & I'm hoping to get others' perspectives & see what else I can – or need – to learn.
This could be fun to watch, essentially McKee is saying the prohibition on semi autos and the buy back was good thing as it's given police the power to differentiate between 'good' and 'bad' firearm owners.
We'll see how good a politician and leader she is as she squares that one away with her constituency. I know a few of them and they certainly do't see it that way.
I'd also be wary of any reduction of the reach of PCA slipped into this, as it applies to the good people in business, like the guy who engaged a cheap contractor to do some welding on his wast oil tank, launching the welder into the next block, and life.
What’s the PCA ?
Proceeds of Crime Act
👍🏼 Cheers
I'd like to see the courts get the ability to declare gangs proscribed organisations, and criminalise membership of the gangs. You could, for example, sentence someone convicted of membership of a proscribed criminal organisation to up to five years in prison, suspended with the use of compulsory electronic monitoring via a GPS tracker.
The danger there is that opposition political parties could in future be declared "a proscribed criminal organisation" … particularly by any party in power with a majority mandate … for instance. Think of how toxic US politics had become and how history does confirm this possability … nay certainty.
Ken Loach shows us why he is not only the greatest living English film director, but also an excellent political analyst as well…which is of course unsurprising.
He rightly observes that the centre "left" are the greatest threat to progressive change in current politics in the UK (as well as New Zealand) and that mass media (including liberal media like The Guardian) is public enemy #1, and will always defend power and class first and foremost.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVP6PlX_UUA
Kier Starmer is basically turning the UK Labour party backwards and inwards and into the last bastion of neoliberal orthodoxy, as the Tories transform themselves into a big-state English nativist party. It is a path to catastrophe, because he’ll end up presiding over an elite cadre party of the liberal urban class that is no longer supported much by anyone outside the opinion writers of the Guardian.
As intended…sir Rodney delivers for his peers.
Thank you Adrian, that should be compulsory viewing for anyone who claims to be a leftie , and everyone else as well !
Thanks. Ken Loach is dead right.
Hats off to Ken Loach. Starmer OUT!
Looks like the Labour party here is going down the same path.
The Labour party here hasn't been "challenged" yet by a true left movement as UK Labour was. NZ Labour are still sitting comfortably in third-way neoliberalism, continuing the same old free-market policies from the 1980s, governing for the benefit of the wealthy few.
UK Labour:
1980s lurch to the right
Corbyn – shift to the left?
Today – Corbyn defeated, Labour firmly back to the right.
NZ Labour:
1980s lurch to the right
Today – no change.
You guys on the True Left should all join together and get a party going for the 2023 elections. The proletariat will rise as one for you.
I thought that's who the greens are?
No The Greens here are the Freeloading Left who get carried by Labour.
The True Left are those who are always there, always kind, always good, always perfect, don't exist in material form, and will raise us all from the dead – something like Jesus for Evangelical Christians.
bwaghorn, that should read were, not are.
NO why should we it's are party those who want a central party should fuck off and form there own party.
Because we already run the country.
Successfully.
Yea right how many home less, how many hungry kids, how many struggle to pay the rent, how many can't get a hospital appointment.It was started as a party of the left to look after the workers and there families not the rich bastards that it does know.
Most popular Labour Party in the world, 4% unemployed, repositioned economy away from imported labour, solved a nationwide crisis twice, smashed opposition, due for 3rd term easily.
Keep the critical eye going, it's good for them.
As I said how many home less, how many hungry kids, how many struggle to pay the rent, how many can't get a hospital appointment.
keep believing the bullshit because I bet you are not one of the above.
I think you will find the imported labour will flood back in ASAP when the border restrictions lift. They haven't changed their beliefs (i.e. use imported labour to suppress wages)
I'm as interested as anyone in how this pandemic restructures our economy. I have a sneaking suspicion we are driving straight into a 3.5% headline unemployed. My company is already having to pull people out of parole to get enough staff. Functioning arms and legs, drug free, and the ability to get to work at 7am every working day is the thing.
"Because we already run the country….Successfully"…haven't you noticed that we cannot open our fucking boarders because your successful Labour govt has been along with National (just two sides of the same coin) underfunding and running our Public Health care system into the ground for the past 30 years, so now surprise, surprise it can't cope with even the smallest number of Covid cases in one hit?…haven't you noticed that none of our children will be able to own their own houses now, and if they do will slaves to the banks for most of their lives…successfully…are you being fucking serious or just taking the piss?
We're not opening our borders because there is a worldwide pandemic on. And the government is scrupulously following the scientific and logistical advice that ensures least harm. It's been on the news.
Why is is necessary to own houses?
Why is is necessary to own houses?'….if you have to even ask that absolutely inane qeustion then it is obvious you don't know shit about what it is like to rent in New Zealand (and especially with a family) and you should probably never comment on this subject ever again because whatever you have to say is meaningless.
No – we just need to take our party back from the deleted expletives who no longer hold Left values, but love the baubles of power. Let them form a new party – "The NeoLiberals" hasn't been taken yet. They'll be less popular than ACT.
or the PMC party
Come along to the next Labour Party conference and change it from within to your own revolutionary standards if you like. Put up remits supported by an LEC, like democratic adults do.
Why? I don't vote for them.
I was merely brainstorming a more accurate name.
Aaahh Ad you really are like our very own version of the Guardian rolled into one yucky package aren't you, and just like the Guardian every now and then you sound reasonable..that is until something comes along that is actually really Left Wing and actually progressive..then the knives come out..every time.
But yeah someones gotta do something different ( i know that is scary to you) because Covid has proven once and for all that freemarket liberal centrism as a controlling and hegemonic ideology is one of the most short term and selfish political ideologies to ever spew out of man's ugly mind..and as if we needed any more proof, it will never have any answers to battle climate change…so Ad you keep on going ahead doing what you do, sitting there and shooting out your funny little one liners at the Left, blithely shooting down the only western politicians who ever had a chance at really turning the ship off it's course of destruction…and then just like nearly the entire western political class (centre left/Right) of the past 30 years you will be remembered (if you are remembered at all?) by future generations with the contempt and disgust they justly deserve.
Labour Prime Minister Ardern is the most effective social democrat Prime Minister in the southern hemisphere, and one of the best in the world.
Clearly that makes you feel really really bad.
Your rage isn't good for your health. I recommend Penfold's Bin 47.
407
I don't drink…funnily enough I don't feel the need to block out reality with drugs or alcohol…but it seems like it is doing a really good job on that front for you pal.
Oh and by the way the problem isn't that people like me rage when the world is burning around us..the problem is that people like you don’t, infact as it turns the liberal class will do nothing…ever.
Here is one of the very founders of your New Zealand Labour’s free market ideology even admitting that it is a flawed ideology…think that would given cause for reflection from you guys..not even for a moment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gkLDdQ3HORo
Yes, given the abject failure of “Roger’n’Ruth’s” legacy, it is way past time to replace the hardwiring of the NZ neo liberal State; e.g. State Sector Act, Reserve Bank Act, penetration of public infrastructure by private capital, outsourcing, managerialism, free in and outflow of capital, bent OIO…
The fifth columnists at the top of the public sector should have to reapply for their positions and WINZ/MSD retired forthwith and a Basic Income paid to all citizens via IRD.
The NZ Labour Party needs to turn it’s power relationships around too. The minority numbers of the “Parliamentary wing” and Caucus have long held sway over the ordinary members views.
Well put. By their posts ye shall know them!–it is easy enough to realise who the centre line huggers, (and veerers over the line to the right side of the road) are.
Corbyn, Sanders, Palestine, Russia, China, US Imperialism, are classic territory for determining where people stand.
Ken Loach is a treasure all right. Have seen many of his films over the years–and shared “I Daniel Blake” with some older guys and they totally got it after their dealings with WINZ/MSD here.
“Spirit of ’45” makes Blairism and Rogernomics look very sick indeed.
The British Labour Party is stranded basically run by class collaborationist weasels and sell outs.
Ken Loach recently expelled from the Labour Party for not "disowning" those expelled from the party before him.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/aug/14/director-ken-loach-expelled-labour-party
For any nature lovers:
Ivan The Terrible
https://vimeo.com/286723774
Lol – he's a pussycat compared to the aggressive carry-ons of the gulls and oystercatchers in the estuary near my place in the north. And don't even get me started on the tui who knows he has sole rights to the flowering pohutakawa up the drive way. Last year I thought he was on his way to a nervous breakdown!
I believe you about the Tui, Jan.
I put out bowls of sugar-water to attract the tuis. Unfortunately, the pukekos soon discovered the sugar-water & were drinking the lot.
Boss Tui got fed up with them stealing HIS sugar-water. One morning I looked out my kitchen window and Bluey Pook was getting in to Boss Tui’s sugar-water – again!
For the next 5 minutes or so I was amazed to see the Tui running sideways along the fence-top at him, flapping his wings. And when that didn’t deter Bluey, who just carried on sipping, Boss Tui started flying in to him, body slamming him. From up in the tree, from both sides of the fence, from down on the ground.
Was amazing to watch. I think I might have even got the last minute on cellvidcam somewhere. Eventually Bluey wandered off, looking rather puzzled, along the fence, & flew back down to stream.
Found a gif I made of it. (All I had on me at the time was a small 3G mobile, with a 2 megapixel camera.)
Tui attacks pukeko:
https://i.imgur.com/IdT8JRI.gif
Who is this guy being trotted out to attack the COVID modeling? Seems like a political hit job flying under the cover of being scientific criticism. If it’s a genuine criticism it’s being used to generate headlines to support the assumptions of people who are anti-vax and suspicious of the health authorities.
It is absolutely valid to put modeling out there to respond to the just open up calls. There definitely haven’t been these kind of numbers made available and it is important to have it out there. Most media is reporting the controversy and not making a judgement on the validity or not of claims, or even fully explaining the original model.
All the RWNJ messaging has been about not giving in to fear and now this rebuttal pops up. Maybe it’s a coincidence.
I think you're right newsense. Heard him rabbiting on TV last evening and formed the same view. Hadn't heard of him before and suspect he's got the pip because he's been ignored so decided to go on a vengeful rampage.
According to Victoria University, unless I have the wrong guy,
Rodney Jones is a Principal of Wigram Capital Advisors, an Asian-based macro advisory firm that provides economic analysis and advice to leading global investment funds on developments in Asia. Rodney has been based in Beijing since 2010, where Wigram Capital Advisors has a representative office.
Rodney has been working as an economist and analyst in Asia for the last 28 years. His focus in that time has on the interaction between banks, the financial system and real economies across Asia. Most recently Wigram Capital Advisors has been a leader in understanding changes in the Chinese banking system, and how that has interacted with broader economic changes.
Prior to establishing Wigram Capital Advisors in Hong Kong in 2001, he was a Managing Director and Partner with Soros Fund Management, heading up the research office in Hong Kong from 1994-2000. During this time Rodney was responsible for providing macro analysis and advice on Japan, China and Non-Japan Asia for the Quantum group of funds.
Prior to joining Soros Fund, Rodney was an Economist with Bankers Trust Company (1992-93), and Kim Eng Securities (1990-92), both in Singapore.
He is a graduate of the University of Auckland, New Zealand, with a MA (Hons) in Economics and a BCom.
Yes Riffer…they don't say on Stuff that Jones is an epidemiologist, they simply say that he is a Covid modeller. The kind of thing an economist could do that wanted NZ to open its borders.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300414401/covid19-nz-rodney-jones-says-shaun-hendys-7000death-vaccine-model-doesnt-pass-plausibility-test
Then there is this article today that also strongly supports, by implication, NZ opening its borders.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/126468067/ireland-and-covid19-more-than-1000-cases-every-day-but-normality-looms
The business establishment is desperate to ignore the deaths and long-term Covid effects of opening those borders. What they don't talk about is that the UK is currently running at Covid deaths of 52,000 annually in Summer. When Winter arrives this will doubtless double. The same approach in NZ would probably lead to 5-7000 deaths annually.
Hendys model forecasts the scale of a single outbreak which is eventually contained. The scale of multiple outbreaks would be much worse, which is where the UK is at right now.
Thanks Nic-that makes sense. The crazed border openers I talk about above do not.
lols "covid modeller".
Like "drone enthusiast".
Gets him on telly, I guess.
'Covid modeller'
I know about excel ss
lol
I was possibly a bit harsh on Jones.
The thing about stats is that lots of tools are used by lots of different disciplines: economics, physics, epidemiology, social sciences, etc.
But knowing how to use a CNC machine doesn't mean that you know whether a part you cut out will actually hold or be uitable for the application you want.
I suspect Jones (as an economist) should know and understand about modelling a range of outcomes as different assumptions vary – pareto fronts come to mind as an example. This is what Hendy's reports do: show a range of outcomes according to different values for inputs (disease control methods, vaccine efficacy, etc).
To argue that one value is unrealistic is farcical. Are the assumptions realistic, even if unlikely? From recollection, Hendy has co-authors with medical training. This lis like me, as CNC operator, having an engineer telling me why copper will fail if used instead of steel because copper will take the strain initially but work-harden and fail more quickly. Maybe Jones is missing a specialist who can say why Hendy's assumptions are plausible, rather than just pointing to an extreme on the continuum and saying "this is just unrealistic".
But this is what a lot of tories have been doing: pointing to one figure along a range of possible outcomes and saying the entire report is bunk because they, personally, don't believe so many people will die. With no explanation about which assumptions are falling down, or how the methodology is flawed.
Good comment Mc
"Wigram Capital Advisors"
Say no more.
self interest?
Rodney has done alot of work for govt with regards Covid he's also pretty damn clever with models and numb and been pretty consistent in his message around alarmist models including the early 80000 dead models. I think the criticism is valid he made the point that models like this will be compared to actuals say Singapore actually giving space for people to say w models are junk etc etc.
The Singapore model ( ie the reality of observations) is different from what Jones (an economist) is suggesting.
Fatalities are in the realm of arbitrary axioms,so extrapolation of deaths would be best fit (to the curves ) from most European countries.eg
Germany 1085 p/m
Netherlands 1052p/m
Sweden 1449p/m
France 1646 p/m
Singapore at present has 1504 cases and 2 deaths in latest release,it also has 1120 in Hospital with around 10% on oxygen and 23 in ICU
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/covid-19-sep-23-new-cases-record-number-2-deaths-2196891
The Singapore model (forecast) also suggests by dec 2021
Worst case 3299 deaths (1394.4-5255.16)
Current projection 794 deaths (282.47-2019.64)
https://covid19.govt.nz/alert-levels-and-updates/latest-updates/independent-experts-to-advise-government-on-post-vaccination-future/
Make of that what you will.
Andrew getting people to work together. Bloomfield presenting Hendy by Zoom? Jones a tad miffed?
The criticism by Jones was pathetic and no more than expressing some kind of gut feeling with a lot of hand waving. As so many, he got bogged down in and by the numbers, which are merely outputs of model simulations that depend on many assumptions and caveats as pointed out in the actual study report, and completely ignored and overlooked the guiding messages from these model runs. As a modeller himself, Jones should have known better. A major fail, in my not so humble opinion; he reminds me of similar Plan B failures.
It appeared to be an attempt to prevent public discussion about the consequences of community spread.
Is Jones saying such modelling should not be done, or that the public should not know about it?
The inference is that we should be managed to a tolerance for death by degree, until we have the rates overseas. Classic think of the interests of Global Capital …
Did feel very much like that SPC.
A less political take would have questioned the model rather than used a number of buzz words associated with the current deniers and rejectionists.
The way Cricklewood used the word alarmist above for example.
If there are unvaccinated groups of people and we get several outbreaks among those populations where we’ve seen delta spread very quickly with an Rnumber of 4-5 and the fax it can still be transmitted by vaccinated people…
It seems rather credible given what we’ve seen overseas to date and the way the virus has at least twice got into our hospitals, with the barest of escapes.
Anyhou tomorrow being another day
3 days ago, Australia's 60 Minutes did a full debate on the consequences of war with China over Taiwan, and the impact of that on Australia.
There were 5 main debaters – all specialists – and none of them were optimistic. Including whether a US-led defence of Taiwan would prevail.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kA2KaEKs1LA
Australia committing itself so deeply to submarine attack capacity starts to answer some of the belligerence coming from Xi Jinping in his big July speech.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-57648236
The 60 Minutes debate is a rare MSM open debate on defence issues pertaining to Australia, so it's worth your 41 minutes on that alone.
What will be ignored by all the marxist apologists here is the extraordinary rhetoric, the open belligerence, military build up, and weaponised trade that Xi Xinping has thrown at us. Their denial flies completely in the face of this reality.
An actual war with China would be utterly devastating, but in my view it will only happen if Xi Xinping thinks he can start one and win with minimal cost. That's the brutal calculus we face in the short-term.
A very good link that explores the issue well – there are a lot aspects to this – and none of them good.
" the open belligerence, military build up, and weaponised trade that Xi Xinping has thrown at us."
Care to elaborate?
It's all detailed pretty closely in the range of experts provided by 60 Minutes in the link I provided for you.
What we get is the usual scary music and a rant from a war mongering US general and an "analyst" from ASPI who are funded by the US State Dept, and weapons manufacturers. Anybody talking up a Chinese invasion of Australia is living in lala land. Even Taiwan, now that the US has left Afghanistan and put all its eggs in the Pacific basket, China can just patiently wait for the next "incident". Time is showing that the US is not capable of cooperation and is fast loosing allies. The EU will soon be looking for more independent contact with China. They are none too happy with the ramped up US belligerence.
I'm none too happy with the belligerence of China towards Taiwan either. Hasn't worked out well for Hong Kong this year.
60 Minutes is a good representative of mainstream media thinking, and what it had to say was much darker in tone than we would ever admit in New Zealand. Simply for understanding that it was worthwhile.
Except that in NZ we've already had the scary music treatment from Guyon Espiner. And what did that amount to? Fear that China was being too generous in it's loan terms to a Far North Maori broadband provider. I mean it's kind of unbelievable really. Hong Kong, Taiwan and Tibet are deeply tied up in Chinese identity. Australia is not. Taiwan is still not settled but to somehow propose that the way Taiwan resolves will impact on the integrity of Australia is madness. Belligerence is something that large powerful states seem to do but to propose that Chinese belligerence towards Australia in their trade war requires the beating of war drums but US belligerence towards Cuba, Iran, Venezuela etc in the form of sanctions does not is quite ridiculous and exposes the hypocrisy of the supposed rules based US system. I've yet to read of deaths in Australia caused by Chinese trade sanctions but could supply you with many reports on deaths caused by the inability of the above sanctioned countries to secure vital medicine and food. In Lebanon at present, Hezbollah has had to arrange for tankers from Iran to supply fuel because of US sanctions that wont even let hospitals generate electricity. At present they get a mere two hours of electricity per day and their whole grid is expected to collapse by the end of this month. This is real life and death stuff. People have been dying from these sanctions for quite some time, They died yesterday, they are dying today and some more will die tomorrow.
"Hong Kong, Taiwan and Tibet are deeply tied up in Chinese identity. Australia is not." About 6% of Australians say they are of Chinese origin.
If we defend people based on their ethnicity, we have no value left except race. That may be how we started this country but it's not the way we are now.
I sure don't condone a march to war: I'm suggesting we watch what Australia is doing very, very closely because it is in our interests to do so.
The reference to identity was more to suggest that while China is interested in Taiwan, it is not interested in Australia for anything other than trade. The identity being alluded to is far more than ethnicity. It includes place and history. It also includes a small matter of an unfinished civil war. And then for the US to step in and dictate to who and what certain parts of Taiwan may trade is more fuel to the fire. They may believe that they have everything nicely under control but there is much evidence around the world that if they are wrong in this assumption and Taiwan and vicinity ends up as charred ruins then this will be a close second best in their eyes. For a non cooperating entity, if its not there's, the only alternative is destruction. Thats what zero sum means and thats what confrontation involves and thats why situations such as the dead half miliion Iraqi children and the collapse of the Lebanese grid are "worth it"
Thanks Subliminal, you said a whole bunch of stuff that I reckon but lack the eloquence and energy to state.
This whole UKUSA, or USUK A as some wag has already pointed out, is no more than willy waving writ large.
While a welcome relief from COVID…! it feels like the flailings of a failing empire.
All good gsays. I have also appreciated many of your well argued posts.
Gsays, if you can get hold of a copy of Robert Axelrods "The Evolution of Cooperation", its a mind blowing read!
Yes. The US is a ruthless great power – and Xi Xinping aspires for China to be one as well. In the current world we live in this kind of contest is going to be a zero sum game. No-one likes this, but it's true.
If I stop pretending that either the US or the PRC are are standing on any moral high ground and simply make a choice based on logical outcomes the debate becomes a lot clearer.
We could side with China. Well this makes AU/NZ an enemy of the USA, and given what you believe of the US, does anyone here think this a smart choice?
Maybe the Chinese get lucky and win. Given how regional hegemons operate does anyone for an instant imagine that the PRC will not interfere in our sovereignty in any number of horrible ways? The US has a plenty shabby track record of just this, and the PRC shows no lack of compunction about interfering with other nations either – just ask any number of their neighbours. Tibet, Hong Kong, Japan, Vietnam and not to mention Taiwan.
Indeed they seem to be just getting started judging by the massive military that has being built up and being told by their President for Life to prepare for imminent war.
So it really just comes down to a 'least bad choice' and we're going to go with the USA. Pretending we can sit on the fence and still trade with China, while expecting the USA to provide security for our trade is a delusion.
There is one major difference between the US and the Chinese approach to foreign policy and that is the extraordinarily massive infrastructure build that is the BRI. It is on a scale that has not been seen before in the world and is forecast to cost more than a trillion dollars. The US doesnt do infrastructure building on any scale. It makes no sense in a world that may require trashing the very country that you have built the infrastructure in. A country that operates on a cooperative model of win win is happy to build infrastructure. They are unlikely to then turn around and destroy what they have just spent billions helping to build. You say it is always zero sum and historically this is so. Zero sum is a stable system that can beat individual or isolated attempts at cooperation. But analysis of iterated prisoners dilemma interactions shows that even a small group of cooperative players will establish and beat zero sum players to the extent that zero sum will become extinct. Of course this analysis assumes that the environment reamains a prisoners dilemma environment. War changes the environment and gives zero sum a new chance to dominate by destroying the cooperative groups viability. Proposing that the Chinese BRI is some kind of act of war is thus ridiculous and choices over who to support are childishly simple. Supporting someone proposing to build infrastructure is always preferable to someone proposing to build military bases and military hardware.
There is one major difference between the US and the Chinese approach to foreign policy and that is the extraordinarily massive infrastructure build that is the BRI. It is on a scale that has not been seen before in the world and is forecast to cost more than a trillion dollars.
Nope. This analysis omits a number of elements.
First of all it erases the fact of the US providing for the past 70yrs the single most crucial piece of 'infrastructure' of all – security. Without this everything else is pointless. It was done this in three main ways – first of all it took war between all the other nations off the table. Secondly it's massive navy explicitly guaranteed Freedom of Navigation for everyone – even Soviet merchant vessels during the Cold War.
Thirdly it played a central role in first containing and then crushing not one four authoritarian, mass murdering imperial regimes – Nazi Germany, North Korea, the Stalinist Soviets and the Maoist PRC. (In my book the the only important difference between fascism and marxism is the latter replaces a totalitarianism energised by race and identity – with an intellectual wank based on class.)
In this post-WW2 environment much of the world has developed beyond all human precedent. This is a fact beyond dispute. The only exceptions were those nations geographically so poor that development was always going to be hard – and those stupid enough not to be on the side of the US.
Yet WW2 US never acted as an imperial power in the classic territorial meaning. With few exceptions they don't claim the territories and waters of other nations for themselves, and they don't mass migrate their people into displacing local populations either economically or demographically. Nor are they all that big on disrupting and displacing the indigenous economic activity with trillons of dollars of physical infrastructure.
The pattern of the US hegemon was this – provide the political, security and commercial infrastructure to the world – and let everyone get on with becoming rich as best they could. And all the evidence tells us this has worked as never before in human history. There was just one rule they were very ruthless about – be on their side against totalitarianism. Given the history of the 20th century it's obvious why.
And up until Xi Xinping becoming President for Life, setting the PRC on a retrograde totalitarian path to cement both his own meglomaniac ambition and the eternal power of the CCP – everyone was reasonably OK with the idea of the PRC taking it's place in this order of things. But now all the soothing words about 'co-operation' mean nothing if the actions of the PRC speak to an absolutist crushing of internal dissent, diplomatic rhetoric intended to intimidate it's neighbours, and an expansionist military that can serve only one purpose – to invade, occupy and consume independent nations across the whole of Eurasia and the Pacific.
When Xi Xinping orders the PRC military to 'prepare for war' – there is every reason to believe him.
Cite?
Conclusion
Based on the foregoing comparative analysis of US and Chinese aid programs, several observations can be made. First, both China and the US have actively used their foreign aid and official finance activities to advance their perceived geostrategic and economic interests. Foreign aid has been used by both donor states to foster political influence in recipient governments in ways that can eventually benefit their interests. Both the US and China formally started their foreign aid programs during their respective periods of ascent as economic powerhouses, and their market expansion and wealth accumulation initiatives have been facilitated by the foreign aid conditions imposed on recipient countries. Second, while Washington has been transparent and specific in classifying its various aid programs, Beijing has yet to further institutionalise its foreign aid bureaucracy and to organise its taxonomy of official development aid schemes so that they are comparable to those of other OECD donor states. Third, the legitimation discourses of Chinese and US aid programs are different. While Beijing legitimises its aid interventions by highlighting South-South cooperation, non-conditional altruism and a state-centred development model, Washington justifies its interventionist aid by framing market economies, democratic governance and human rights as quintessential principles for development. This marked difference in legitimation discourses is also reflected in the nature of their aid recipients: Beijing considers states its key recipients; Washington provides aid to a wide variety of states and non-state actors. Finally, foreign aid is not only the most visible and concrete form of influence that a powerful state deploys in weaker countries; it is also one of the most enduring features of the international system. No matter how destructive or beneficial foreign aid can be for a recipient country, the United States and China, as status quo and challenger powers respectively, deploy various legitimation discourses in order to galvanise political support in their own domestic constituencies and the people in recipient countries.
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03932729.2020.1855904
@joe
In the context of the comment I'm comparing the US track record in physical infrastructure development – to that of the BRI.
@RL
ta, looking forward to it
Pay attention. Maybe even watch the 60 Minutes clip – it covers the basics well.
Are you prepared to sit back and do nothing when the PRC takes Taiwan by force? An independent and democratic nation just like NZ?
And do you for one instant imagine the immense military build up of PRC forces this past decade is not intended for this exact purpose?
Taiwan is not recognised as a nation state, nor does it claim to be one.
The ROC has maintained an independent govt since 1949. It has been a democracy since the 70's.
Pretending otherwise is not an argument.
The USA, the UK and Australia all recognise Taiwan is part of the one China.
For decades after 1949 the government in exile claimed to be the government of China, not the island of Taiwan. After end of international recognition of its government as the government of China, it had to establish legitimacy for itself on the island of Taiwan – this lead to democratic reforms in the 1980's, then its first Presidential election in 1996.
Put it this way, the UNSC is expected to prove a collective security guarantee to member states. Taiwan has no such status.
Whether Taiwan is recognised as worth defending by the United Nations is depressingly irrelevant.
Taiwan is a liberal, tolerant, open-minded, capitalist, high-functioning state that is also a relatively recent and high-functioning democracy.
Were Xi Jinping to make good on his threats, the region and indeed the world would lose one more state which is almost exactly like us.
So we might ask ourselves, as Australia clearly is, whether we want to help defend those qualities by helping to defend Taiwan.
New Zealand is well known for multilateralism and due regard for international law.
This informed our decisions in 1950 (Korea) and 1991 (Kuwait) and again in 2003, when we did not join in the regime change operation in Iraq.
Your opine on Taiwan, is frankly irrelevant, they see themselves as part of China and have stated no intent to ever declare independence from the one China.
There seems to be a presumption among some here that AUKUS has something to do with Chinese asserting dominion over the territory of the one China by flying over it from time to time etc.
No, AUKUS is something sought by Oz to commit the US to its territorial integrity and provide itself with some greater deterrent (offshore sea defence and missile capability). This has more to do with the atoll based aircraft carriers China recently created and their related rejection of the Permanent Court of Arbitration decision. It's about a longer game than Taiwan.
Taiwanese have a very negative view of China.
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/05/12/in-taiwan-views-of-mainland-china-mostly-negative/
I haven't mentioned AUKUS. I have mentioned the Quad meeting coming up tomorrow. That's India, Japan, Australia, United States.
The threats against Taiwan by CHina are also being felt by Japan, Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines.
China needs to figure out how to make more friends. Everyone around them has.
China has heaps of friends. You for one, who is no doubt using a device made by them.
I’m using a PC made stateside, but I think their foreign policy sucks.
And a lot of people have a negative view of Wellington, but their capital is there all the same.
Put it another way, how many nations in the ME agreed with US policy in support of Israel, yet the USA did what they did in that region all the same. Then there were the dictatorships in the America’s supported by the USA, so long as they were anti-commie. Nations asserting hegemony are what they are.
My point is that our regional security is not synonymous with the matter of the one China.
they see themselves as part of China and have stated no intent to ever declare independence from the one China.
A fiction that everyone played along with as the price paid to maintain a relationship with the PRC.
After 1949 the PRC and ROC each laid a legitimate claim to both territories. For their part the ROC recognised that the civil war between the two govts was over for all practical purposes some decades ago and set aside their claim to the mainland.
By contrast the PRC has only intensified their claim over Taiwan. The degree of diplomatic pressure they bring to bear is astonishing. Recently a school mural in Queensland had on one small part of it a Taiwanese flag – and the Chinese govt insisted that it be painted over. A schoolkids painting in another country – FFS.
The whole 'one country, two systems' farce was tolerable as long as everyone played along with it. Now Xi Xinping has declared that Taiwan will be re-taken by armed force; the game is over and no-one is pretending anymore.
The next big intensity uptick will be the Olympics – will the Biden Administration decide to boycott the ‘Genocide Games’?
@Redlogix.
I don't have the time or energy to search for where he said this. Could you please provide a quote and a link?
And apologies to @SPC. My reply at 8:28pm last night was to Ad's typically pithy comment at 8:19pm.
China making foreign friends? That's all they've done for the last 30 years on the back of maltreated domestic labour.
It's longstanding Chinese policy to warn Taiwan that declaring independence (from the one China) means war.
(PS Muttonbird, I realised that while trying to make some sort of reply).
If Australia was to maintain a ‘long standing policy’ that because NZ is still formally a potential part of the Australian Federal Constitution and that for this reason if we were to declare our independence this would mean war – you would see what was going on quite clearly.
"the PRC takes Taiwan by force"?
Hilarious
"On January 1, 1979, the United States established official diplomatic relations with China, formally recognizing the government of the PRC as the sole legitimate government of China and Taiwan as a part of China and, at the same time announcing the cessation of "diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities, the annulment of the "Mutual Defense Treaty" and the withdrawal of all its military personnel from Taiwan. In these historical conditions, the Chinese government, out of consideration for the interests and future of the whole nation, put forward the principle of "peaceful reunification of the country, and one country, two systems" in accordance with the principle of respecting history and reality, seeking truth from facts and taking into account the interests of both sides."
Does the US recognise the One China Policy?
Does the US have an Embassy in Taiwan?
You're so ignorant it's laughable
The fact that the BBC spew propaganda that confirms your bias is not a good enough reason for anyone to take their 'clip' seriously.
I understand your concern, I do.
That Australia is minion to the biggest global state sponsor of terror, and has convinced itself that China is an enemy irrespective of any evidence, doesn't bode well regarding your safety
That you chose not to answer my question is obvious.
What is it exactly that we should focus on in this graph?
Obviously China.
The Maoist apologists would also have us believe Chinese rule wouldn’t be that bad as there is no evidence of Uighur being persecuted, tibet is historically chains and hong kong is a fine example of when Chinese government takes over from western style government.
i personally look forward to not seeing effeminate men on television. Mark richardson will be long gone
Lets compare how many countries has the USA invaded, overthrown, bombed,
how many innocents have they murdered over the last 40 years.
the yanks would sell us down the river for 2 cents
Are those who quibble with Enzed participation in Cold War, really Marxists?
For mine, that's a reprise of the "with the US or a fellow traveller with commies", or siding with the USA or siding with terrorists post 2001.
As for weaponised trade, Trump trashed the WTO and Biden has yet to give any indication he will do anything about it (not appointing judges for arbitration)
No well reds obviously only referring to marxists, not reasonable folk who recognise the depravity of yankistani foreign policy.
The nuclear question is simple – all conventional wars between major powers will escalate to nuclear because the weaker side is left with no other good options.
If a war over Taiwan drew in the United States, Korea and Japan, it is not clear who would be the weaker side.
Understood – there are multiple ways to analyse this. Obviously the PRC would have an immense advantage in terms of proximity to the immediate battlefield, but it's my sense that very quickly almost the entire world would be drawn into this conflict. No-one would even get the choice of 'sitting it out'.
And in that event the PRC would cease to exist. Which is a measure of Xi Xinping's folly.
This kind of discussion is going to get really noisy next week as we start to digest the outcome of tomorrow's Quad Meeting.
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/09/23/asia/us-china-india-australia-japan-quad-intl-hnk/index.html
Aukus is inventing a war that isn't there. A repeat of the call to arms on flimsy evidence in 2001 as referenced above.
Australia has to be the dimmest nation on earth. Why create such animosity with your major trading partner. I suspect the staggering egos of their conservative government has a lot to do with it.
A good piece – but I don't think it really got into the mechanics of how an incident might start or escalate. As it stands, Taiwan looks like a costly adventure for China, much depends on what resources or pretexts could be marshalled to make any such move a fait accompli as soon as possible. A vassal state like North Korea might well trigger an incident for example.
Submarines on a twenty year order cycle don't present much of an obstacle, and, if China were to nuke Oz, NZ would be drawn into the conflict willing or not. A trained anti- bushfire task force could find plenty of peacetime use, and a stock of CBW gear and medical capacity would be prudent. Some of it could find use as a Covid reserve for the moment.
Ad, at near 80 I have lived through so many bogey men.
What were the real issues?
Racial attitudes- Financial collapse- Biodiversity loss -terrorism and a pandemic.
Over riding all of this is climate change.
We do not need to find weapons of mass destruction all over again, as we have enough life threatening situations already.
We need to co-operate. Extreme positions are dangerous. Rule of Law always.
Bugger, I thought, for a moment there, I was a Marxist.
Thanks for yr benefit and wisdom of years walking this planet.
Sharing and cooperation IS the forward. Anything else is your enemy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XAPfNPIvWkM
"The finger to the land of the chains
What? The land of the free?
Whoever told you that is your enemy?
Yes I know my enemies
They’re the teachers who taught me to fight me
Compromise, conformity, assimilation, submission
Ignorance, hypocrisy, brutality, the elite
All of which are American dreams (8 times)"
None of that is at you Patricia.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/126472402/how-social-insurance-could-provide-a-safety-net-for-nzs-most-vulnerable-workers
As someone who has been made redundant twice(##$$$fletcher forestry bunch of #$$%##) this would have made a massive difference to my life rather than it being just being thrown into disarray,!
Robertson has been going on about this for over a term.
We've had it implemented nationwide in a very strong form on a company bases over the COVID outbreaks.
Why is he so slow on this?
While I'm unlikely to get laid off again (unless you plant all our farms in trees😉) I'd gladly pay 1% of my income to set up an acc type scheme for layoffs.
I would rather the government did their job and made ACC simply expand their existing provisions. Can't do worse than MSD.
Yes, ACC helps recovery and preserves income.
A similar scheme for the loss of employment would stop fractured lives.
Just saw simon bridges say hes getting a haircut tomorrow, some said here recently that that's the sign the coup is a go. !
Perhaps it's a precursor to getting a real job.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3w7CrxLj36I
food for thought .
Feels like he's remodelling himself on John Keys again. He's having a second go at the, "aw-shucks, me?" regular bloke style.
This in attempt to contrast with Jacinda Ardern's sincere, compassionate earnestness.
"Key" not Keys"
But get it is hard for you to get this stuff right.
– Bill Shorten, on the Melbourne protesters.
There's a bloke who should be Prime Minister.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/sep/21/what-do-we-know-about-the-protests-in-melbourne-and-how-did-the-numbers-grow
No surprises there, much of what poses for the left nowadays wouldn't recognise the working class if they turned up in work gear at their union office.
lol – so fucking true.
And a bloke from the moneyed, middle-class part of Melbourne whose parents could afford to pass up a scholarship to an exclusive school and send him to another even more exclusive school, with double the fees, more to their liking. A bloke who helped a Labor Right aligned faction to take over a Young Labor branch from the Socialist Left . A bloke credibly accused of neck-deep involvement in good, old fashioned Aussie union corruption.
Would that bloke recognise the working class if they turned up in work gear at their union office?