Open mike 24/09/2021

143 comments on “Open mike 24/09/2021 ”

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1. Gezza 1

   24 September 2021 at 6:14 am

   NEW BILL WILL HIT GANGS WHERE IT HURTS

   “My Member’s Bill drawn today [23 September 2021] will crack down on gangs and illegal firearms use,” says ACT’s Justice Spokesperson Nicole McKee.

   “Gang numbers have exploded under this soft on crime Government. With more gang members comes an increase in their confidence … we’ve seen shootings in our communities … only a matter of time before an innocent member of the public gets caught in the cross fire.

   Nicole says her Bill, the Criminal Proceeds (Recovery) (Definition of Significant Criminal Activity) Amendment Bill will deliver police the tools to crack down on gangs and illegal firearm use.

   “The Bill increases the power of police to seize assets connected with gang activity and illegal firearms owned by gang members by introducing a new threshold for Police to seize assets. Under the definitions put in place in this Bill, the threshold to seize assets would now be triggered if a gang member was found with an illegal firearm therefore committing an offence.

   “This is a tool to hit the gangs where it hurts, their wallets. Parliament has a duty and a responsibility to keep New Zealanders safe. My Bill will do that.

   She says: “Neither the Government’s new gun legislation, nor the buyback, has made a difference to the number of illegal firearms in circulation. Law abiding members of the firearms community have handed back their guns, but violent gang members were never going to.

   “This Bill adds a new tool to crackdown on the criminal activity gangs inflict on New Zealanders.”

   https://www.act.org.nz/bill_will_hit_gangs_where_it_hurts
   ………………………………….

   Good one. Hope it gets enuf support to pass.

   I loathe the gangs. For their illegal drug involvement, for their members’ (or prospects’) ongoing commission of other crimes, for their brutality & the fear & intimidation they bring to our towns & communities, for their gang-on-gang violence, which seems to be increasing, & especially – for the continual damage they do to Māori-Pākehā relations in this country. Gezza
   • Ad 1.1

     24 September 2021 at 6:47 am

     A couple of random questions:

     – Where is the analysis of the actual effect of the bill?

     – What does the Police Association think?

     – Why is the Act Party assaulting property rights so much? The Proceeds of Crime Act is an exceedingly aggressive bill as it is.

     – Will farmers and hunters be reasonaby worried?

     – Which weapons does it cover? Will my Dad's old air rifle mean Police can stomp in and take the house?

     – Which societal ill will this property seizure extension cure?
     • Gezza 1.1.1

       24 September 2021 at 7:10 am

       Cheers Ad

       – Where is the analysis of the actual effect of the bill?
       A: Dunno. Do you know where I could typically find one?

       – What does the Police Association think?
       A: No idea. Will see if I can find any comment from Police on it. It’s new. There may be nothing yet.

       – Why is the Act Party assaulting property rights so much? The Proceeds of Crime Act is an exceedingly aggressive bill as it is.
       A. I assume they are not particulary concerned about the property rights of anti-society crims. Also, they probably see “law n order” as a vote-winner among those who’ve been (or feel) intimidated by gangstas, or have been victims of crime by mobstas or prospects.

       – Will farmers and hunters be reasonaby worried?
       A. Can’t why they should. If any have got a sideline in criminal activity, gang on gang “warfare” or arms dealing, those persons might encounter some difficulties with the constabulary?

       – Which weapons does it cover? Will my Dad’s old air rifle mean Police can stomp in and take the house?
       A. I doubt it. There used to be some extra-high-powered airguns on the market. If they’re still for sale, MAYBE some of those might be covered.

       – Which societal ill will this property seizure extension cure?
       A. I reckon they (like Bridges) are out to make the worst gangsta’s lives as difficult as possible. To try & counter gang recruitment, which is burgeoning.
       • Ad 1.1.1.1

         24 September 2021 at 7:33 am

         Gezza if you really support this bill, you might want to get a few answers first.

         Most people hate hangs. So what?
         • Gezza 1.1.1.1.1

           24 September 2021 at 7:39 am

           Well, must admit I’m really off the gangs at the moment.

           Some prospects recently broke the 1/4 light windows of 5 cars – including mine, trying to get in, hot-wire, & steal them. They succeded with the 5th car. My neighbours’. We’re in Tawa. The Police found it abandoned in Johnsonville. It was written off.
           • Ad 1.1.1.1.1.1

             24 September 2021 at 7:54 am

             Fully respect that, and this government has not stopped a simply massive growth in criminal gangs.
             • Gezza …

               24 September 2021 at 8:13 am

               I never heard a thing. My car’s got an alarm & an imobiliser. So did my neighbour’s. Seems maybe that if they can “pop” your 1/4 light with a screwdriver (you can see where they inserted it at the seals) & can then unlock a back door, it doesn’t set off your car alarm.

               The policewoman who came to dust all the cars for fingerprints said: “They’ll go to Youth Court, get a slap on the wrist, & be back doing it again within a week.”
               • aom …

                 24 September 2021 at 9:04 am

                 Just to be clear Gezza, do you have evidence that it was series of gang related incidents? This being as opposed to someone who has been labeled a gang member because of his appearance or demeanor.
                 • Gezza …

                   24 September 2021 at 9:14 am

                   4 of them (all neighbours) were done in one afternoon.

                   The remaining one was done a week later, at about 7 pm, while the owner was parked in the other neighbour's visitors parking space, just next door to mine. They managed to pull out the ignition barrel, but couldn't start the car.

                   The police caught the culprits, that's how we know they were MMM prospects. In my neck of the woods, Mongie prospects sometimes wear red bandanas, or have them hanging thru their belt loops.
             • Patricia Bremner …

               24 September 2021 at 1:42 pm

               With respect, how many gang members have been dropped on our communities by Australia in the last 4 years? Ans LOTS!!
               Since the lock down over 300 criminals have been sent here. Not all are gang members, but they are mostly already antisocial, and build on the numbers.
               Looking at The Gold Coast News gangs are rife.
               In a time of high employment in NZ this is by choice.
               • Gezza …

                 24 September 2021 at 1:48 pm

                 Getting a bit dated (24 Feb 2021)

                 …but not as many as some might think, it seems:

                 https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/02/australian-deportees-make-up-minuscule-amount-of-new-zealand-s-gang-explosion.html
               • Patricia Bremner …

                 24 September 2021 at 2:02 pm

                 Sorry, forgot to add, this is to infer the Government is soft on crime.

                 What a hoot, there have been more high powered crooks facing the courts under this Government, more crimes uncovered, but we find an antiquated set of attitudes in the judiciary have real bias.

                 Like many areas of Public service years of underfunding patching and poor co-ordination between Police and Courts have led to gangs choosing "areas with friendly courts"

                 This law would not deal with any of the causes or bias in the system, instead make an almost vigilante attitude in Police and the courts almost mandatory.

                 Meanwhile the gun runners dealers and printers? what about them… is it going to be "By association?" Asinine idea imo.
       • I Feel Love 1.1.1.2

         24 September 2021 at 8:53 am

         You've just shown who this kind of bill is aimed at, simple thinking to complex problems. Gangs suck, but to think they'll ever go away is bizarre, they're outlaws, literally. As long as there is poverty & prison, there will be gangs. And stupid opportunist politicians too & lazy thinkers.
         • Gezza 1.1.1.2.1

           24 September 2021 at 9:21 am

           ACT is going for the low-hanging fruit; they obviously consider there are probably some votes in it for them. National's Bridges is on the same anyi-gang warpath & wavelength.

           I'm personally happy enuf to see the Parliamentary Bills process kick & sort out whether this is a practical move or not. If it's got massive holes or foreseeable problems in it – it won't get passed. Not with the Labour & Greens & Te Pāti Māori MP numbers.
         • Gezza 1.1.1.2.2

           24 September 2021 at 12:44 pm

           As long as there is poverty & prison, there will be gangs. And stupid opportunist politicians too & lazy thinkers.

           With gang recruitment on the rise, there's now a chicken & egg element to think about. Some lazy thinkers seem to not want to do this. Mantras like "No more poverty. No more prisons" aren't the simple solutions they might sound or seem to some.

           Those joining up to gangs (from my North Welly perspective anyway) are mostly tane rangatahi who haven't done well or have failed in school. They may come from "broken" homes. And / or homes where nowadays, grandparents, and mum & dad (or the current partner of either one) are gang associates or patched mobstas, or living with one.

           There is unlikely to be any whanau in NZ that doesn't now have gang members or associates in it.

           For teenage boys (& some girls, in all likliehood) with little prospect of getting a good qualification and/or a decent, respectable job, they are faced with too much time on their hands when they do exit school.

           Right at the time of their lives when they most desperately want to figure out who they are, who they should look up to & seek to emulate, and how they fit in the world. To "be someone", also to belong to a supportive peer group, and to be respected as having value.

           For those not strongly connected with the Māoritanga of their hapu's marae, the gangs offer very potent attraction. And they exploit this ruthlessly.

           These lost young men get to join a "tribe". They get a uniform. If they can't work, they get given "things to do" by the gang to fit in – & they think they gain "mana" by now becoming someone who (at least when with other gangstas if not on their own) is feared – and thus "respected". They are "outlaws" a sexy kind of person to be for some young people enjoying the pull of rebelliousness.

           I hung around at every opportunity with a bullshit bikie gang for six months before I left school. And looking back, some of these factors were reasons I did so. But they were going nowhere & spending weekend daya riding around Taranaki & the nights working my way thru a dozen beer eventually lost its appeal.

           But I 'm a Pākehā & I had options. And help. My dad, a low-level public servant, got me an interview with another government department & my miserable UE results (compared to my older & younger brothers') & general affability were just sufficient for the local manager to take me on & try me out.

           I ended up transferring to another Dept in Wellington a year later. Head Office looked like the place to be, where the opportunities for promotion were more often available than in provincial District Offices. And I had a 34.5 year career in the public service, eventually working my way up to a pretty generous salary by continuing to learn new skills & get along with people.

           These gang prospects don't get those opportunities. Nor probably can they look around & see something better to do witb their lives.

           What they see is that belonging to a gang gives them status, "employment", girls, & the prospect of, who knows, if they play their cards right, important ranking in the upper echelons of the gang hierarchy, with the desirable properties, swanky cars, harley hogs, & the great wealth that they can see goes with that dream.

           So, my current thinking is that it is important that NZ tackles the gang problem from several different directions.

           One being to make it unattractive as a potential long-term occupation, by ensuring that those senior members clearly profiting off the crime & intimidation visibly don't get to keep & enjoy the fruits of their functionary members' labours & their drug-related & other criminal enterprises. (I was told a few years ago by a local mechanic that the mongies or black power had the stolen car chop shop market in Wellington. Running to order. Dunno if that's right, never checked it out, but certainly open to the possibility it is – or was – true.)

           Unemployed Māori youths need something better, more productive, more community-supported & approved to do. They need hope. They need better role models than gangsta super-crims. They need education. They need to actually experience being really appreciated & valued for what they contribute to the community, rather than what they take from it. They need skills. And training. It's bloody tragic how many of these of these young folk are having wasted lives.

           And they especially need help to avoid getting sucked into gang-run soul & mind-destroying effects of doing daily dope & P. And then having to sell it to meet their own needs.

           So how we tackle these other issues is where I think we also need to be getting lots of minds together – including strong hapu iwi & marae input – and I don't see enuf of this happening yet.

           Anyway, that's how I'm looking at this issue at the moment. I sure don't have all the answers. I want some. I'm talking about it here because there are a lot of folk posting here who I think genuinely care about these issues deeply & I'm hoping to get others' perspectives & see what else I can – or need – to learn.
     • Graeme 1.1.2

       24 September 2021 at 7:10 am

       This could be fun to watch, essentially McKee is saying the prohibition on semi autos and the buy back was good thing as it's given police the power to differentiate between 'good' and 'bad' firearm owners.

       We'll see how good a politician and leader she is as she squares that one away with her constituency. I know a few of them and they certainly do't see it that way.

       I'd also be wary of any reduction of the reach of PCA slipped into this, as it applies to the good people in business, like the guy who engaged a cheap contractor to do some welding on his wast oil tank, launching the welder into the next block, and life.
       • Gezza 1.1.2.1

         24 September 2021 at 7:29 am

         What’s the PCA ?
         • Ad 1.1.2.1.1

           24 September 2021 at 7:31 am

           Proceeds of Crime Act
           • Gezza 1.1.2.1.1.1

             24 September 2021 at 7:33 am

             👍🏼 Cheers
   • Sanctuary 1.2

     24 September 2021 at 9:13 am

     I'd like to see the courts get the ability to declare gangs proscribed organisations, and criminalise membership of the gangs. You could, for example, sentence someone convicted of membership of a proscribed criminal organisation to up to five years in prison, suspended with the use of compulsory electronic monitoring via a GPS tracker.
     • Maurice 1.2.1

       24 September 2021 at 9:24 am

       The danger there is that opposition political parties could in future be declared "a proscribed criminal organisation" … particularly by any party in power with a majority mandate … for instance. Think of how toxic US politics had become and how history does confirm this possability … nay certainty.
2. Adrian Thornton 2

   24 September 2021 at 7:54 am

   Ken Loach shows us why he is not only the greatest living English film director, but also an excellent political analyst as well…which is of course unsurprising.

   He rightly observes that the centre "left" are the greatest threat to progressive change in current politics in the UK (as well as New Zealand) and that mass media (including liberal media like The Guardian) is public enemy #1, and will always defend power and class first and foremost.

   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVP6PlX_UUA
   • Sanctuary 2.1

     24 September 2021 at 9:15 am

     Kier Starmer is basically turning the UK Labour party backwards and inwards and into the last bastion of neoliberal orthodoxy, as the Tories transform themselves into a big-state English nativist party. It is a path to catastrophe, because he’ll end up presiding over an elite cadre party of the liberal urban class that is no longer supported much by anyone outside the opinion writers of the Guardian.
     • tc 2.1.1

       24 September 2021 at 9:45 am

       As intended…sir Rodney delivers for his peers.
   • garibaldi 2.2

     24 September 2021 at 9:17 am

     Thank you Adrian, that should be compulsory viewing for anyone who claims to be a leftie , and everyone else as well !
   • UncookedSelachimorpha 2.3

     24 September 2021 at 10:06 am

     Thanks. Ken Loach is dead right.
   • Bearded Git 2.4

     24 September 2021 at 10:45 am

     Hats off to Ken Loach. Starmer OUT!
   • Peter 1 2.5

     24 September 2021 at 11:09 am

     Looks like the Labour party here is going down the same path.
     • UncookedSelachimorpha 2.5.1

       24 September 2021 at 11:59 am

       The Labour party here hasn't been "challenged" yet by a true left movement as UK Labour was. NZ Labour are still sitting comfortably in third-way neoliberalism, continuing the same old free-market policies from the 1980s, governing for the benefit of the wealthy few.

       UK Labour:
       1980s lurch to the right
       Corbyn – shift to the left?
       Today – Corbyn defeated, Labour firmly back to the right.

       NZ Labour:
       1980s lurch to the right
       Today – no change.
       • Ad 2.5.1.1

         24 September 2021 at 12:21 pm

         You guys on the True Left should all join together and get a party going for the 2023 elections. The proletariat will rise as one for you.
         • bwaghorn 2.5.1.1.1

           24 September 2021 at 12:35 pm

           I thought that's who the greens are?
           • Ad 2.5.1.1.1.1

             24 September 2021 at 1:02 pm

             No The Greens here are the Freeloading Left who get carried by Labour.

             The True Left are those who are always there, always kind, always good, always perfect, don't exist in material form, and will raise us all from the dead – something like Jesus for Evangelical Christians.
           • garibaldi 2.5.1.1.1.2

             24 September 2021 at 1:03 pm

             bwaghorn, that should read were, not are.
         • Peter 1 2.5.1.1.2

           24 September 2021 at 1:14 pm

           NO why should we it's are party those who want a central party should fuck off and form there own party.
           • Ad 2.5.1.1.2.1

             24 September 2021 at 1:24 pm

             Because we already run the country.

             Successfully.
             • Peter 1 …

               24 September 2021 at 1:43 pm

               Yea right how many home less, how many hungry kids, how many struggle to pay the rent, how many can't get a hospital appointment.It was started as a party of the left to look after the workers and there families not the rich bastards that it does know.
               • Ad …

                 24 September 2021 at 1:52 pm

                 Most popular Labour Party in the world, 4% unemployed, repositioned economy away from imported labour, solved a nationwide crisis twice, smashed opposition, due for 3rd term easily.

                 Keep the critical eye going, it's good for them.
                 • Peter 1 …

                   24 September 2021 at 2:17 pm

                   As I said how many home less, how many hungry kids, how many struggle to pay the rent, how many can't get a hospital appointment.

                   keep believing the bullshit because I bet you are not one of the above.
                 • UncookedSelachimorpha …

                   24 September 2021 at 5:39 pm

                   I think you will find the imported labour will flood back in ASAP when the border restrictions lift. They haven't changed their beliefs (i.e. use imported labour to suppress wages)
                   • Ad …

                     24 September 2021 at 9:07 pm

                     I'm as interested as anyone in how this pandemic restructures our economy. I have a sneaking suspicion we are driving straight into a 3.5% headline unemployed. My company is already having to pull people out of parole to get enough staff. Functioning arms and legs, drug free, and the ability to get to work at 7am every working day is the thing.
             • Adrian Thornton …

               24 September 2021 at 8:53 pm

               "Because we already run the country….Successfully"…haven't you noticed that we cannot open our fucking boarders because your successful Labour govt has been along with National (just two sides of the same coin) underfunding and running our Public Health care system into the ground for the past 30 years, so now surprise, surprise it can't cope with even the smallest number of Covid cases in one hit?…haven't you noticed that none of our children will be able to own their own houses now, and if they do will slaves to the banks for most of their lives…successfully…are you being fucking serious or just taking the piss?
               • Ad …

                 24 September 2021 at 9:03 pm

                 We're not opening our borders because there is a worldwide pandemic on. And the government is scrupulously following the scientific and logistical advice that ensures least harm. It's been on the news.

                 Why is is necessary to own houses?
                 • Adrian Thornton …

                   25 September 2021 at 7:18 am

                   Why is is necessary to own houses?'….if you have to even ask that absolutely inane qeustion then it is obvious you don't know shit about what it is like to rent in New Zealand (and especially with a family) and you should probably never comment on this subject ever again because whatever you have to say is meaningless.
         • Stuart Munro 2.5.1.1.3

           24 September 2021 at 3:45 pm

           No – we just need to take our party back from the deleted expletives who no longer hold Left values, but love the baubles of power. Let them form a new party – "The NeoLiberals" hasn't been taken yet. They'll be less popular than ACT.
           • arkie 2.5.1.1.3.1

             24 September 2021 at 3:49 pm

             or the PMC party
             • Ad …

               24 September 2021 at 9:10 pm

               Come along to the next Labour Party conference and change it from within to your own revolutionary standards if you like. Put up remits supported by an LEC, like democratic adults do.
               • arkie …

                 24 September 2021 at 9:21 pm

                 Why? I don't vote for them.

                 I was merely brainstorming a more accurate name.
         • Adrian Thornton 2.5.1.1.4

           24 September 2021 at 8:39 pm

           Aaahh Ad you really are like our very own version of the Guardian rolled into one yucky package aren't you, and just like the Guardian every now and then you sound reasonable..that is until something comes along that is actually really Left Wing and actually progressive..then the knives come out..every time.

           But yeah someones gotta do something different ( i know that is scary to you) because Covid has proven once and for all that freemarket liberal centrism as a controlling and hegemonic ideology is one of the most short term and selfish political ideologies to ever spew out of man's ugly mind..and as if we needed any more proof, it will never have any answers to battle climate change…so Ad you keep on going ahead doing what you do, sitting there and shooting out your funny little one liners at the Left, blithely shooting down the only western politicians who ever had a chance at really turning the ship off it's course of destruction…and then just like nearly the entire western political class (centre left/Right) of the past 30 years you will be remembered (if you are remembered at all?) by future generations with the contempt and disgust they justly deserve.
           • Ad 2.5.1.1.4.1

             24 September 2021 at 8:56 pm

             Labour Prime Minister Ardern is the most effective social democrat Prime Minister in the southern hemisphere, and one of the best in the world.

             Clearly that makes you feel really really bad.

             Your rage isn't good for your health. I recommend Penfold's Bin 47.
             • SPC …

               24 September 2021 at 9:21 pm

               407
             • Adrian Thornton …

               25 September 2021 at 7:22 am

               I don't drink…funnily enough I don't feel the need to block out reality with drugs or alcohol…but it seems like it is doing a really good job on that front for you pal.
             • Adrian Thornton …

               25 September 2021 at 8:00 am

               Oh and by the way the problem isn't that people like me rage when the world is burning around us..the problem is that people like you don’t, infact as it turns the liberal class will do nothing…ever.

               Here is one of the very founders of your New Zealand Labour’s free market ideology even admitting that it is a flawed ideology…think that would given cause for reflection from you guys..not even for a moment.
               https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gkLDdQ3HORo
               • Tiger Mountain …

                 25 September 2021 at 9:02 am

                 Yes, given the abject failure of “Roger’n’Ruth’s” legacy, it is way past time to replace the hardwiring of the NZ neo liberal State; e.g. State Sector Act, Reserve Bank Act, penetration of public infrastructure by private capital, outsourcing, managerialism, free in and outflow of capital, bent OIO…

                 The fifth columnists at the top of the public sector should have to reapply for their positions and WINZ/MSD retired forthwith and a Basic Income paid to all citizens via IRD.

                 The NZ Labour Party needs to turn it’s power relationships around too. The minority numbers of the “Parliamentary wing” and Caucus have long held sway over the ordinary members views.
           • Tiger Mountain 2.5.1.1.4.2

             25 September 2021 at 7:31 am

             Well put. By their posts ye shall know them!–it is easy enough to realise who the centre line huggers, (and veerers over the line to the right side of the road) are.

             Corbyn, Sanders, Palestine, Russia, China, US Imperialism, are classic territory for determining where people stand.
   • Tiger Mountain 2.6

     24 September 2021 at 2:50 pm

     Ken Loach is a treasure all right. Have seen many of his films over the years–and shared “I Daniel Blake” with some older guys and they totally got it after their dealings with WINZ/MSD here.

     “Spirit of ’45” makes Blairism and Rogernomics look very sick indeed.

     The British Labour Party is stranded basically run by class collaborationist weasels and sell outs.
   • SPC 2.7

     24 September 2021 at 3:30 pm

     Ken Loach recently expelled from the Labour Party for not "disowning" those expelled from the party before him.

     https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/aug/14/director-ken-loach-expelled-labour-party
3. Gezza 3

   24 September 2021 at 8:48 am

   For any nature lovers:

   Ivan The Terrible
   https://vimeo.com/286723774
   • JanM 3.1

     24 September 2021 at 9:07 am

     Lol – he's a pussycat compared to the aggressive carry-ons of the gulls and oystercatchers in the estuary near my place in the north. And don't even get me started on the tui who knows he has sole rights to the flowering pohutakawa up the drive way. Last year I thought he was on his way to a nervous breakdown!
     • Gezza 3.1.1

       24 September 2021 at 9:35 am

       I believe you about the Tui, Jan.

       I put out bowls of sugar-water to attract the tuis. Unfortunately, the pukekos soon discovered the sugar-water & were drinking the lot.

       Boss Tui got fed up with them stealing HIS sugar-water. One morning I looked out my kitchen window and Bluey Pook was getting in to Boss Tui’s sugar-water – again!

       For the next 5 minutes or so I was amazed to see the Tui running sideways along the fence-top at him, flapping his wings. And when that didn’t deter Bluey, who just carried on sipping, Boss Tui started flying in to him, body slamming him. From up in the tree, from both sides of the fence, from down on the ground.

       Was amazing to watch. I think I might have even got the last minute on cellvidcam somewhere. Eventually Bluey wandered off, looking rather puzzled, along the fence, & flew back down to stream.
       • Gezza 3.1.1.1

         24 September 2021 at 10:22 am

         Found a gif I made of it. (All I had on me at the time was a small 3G mobile, with a 2 megapixel camera.)

         Tui attacks pukeko:

         https://i.imgur.com/IdT8JRI.gif
4. newsense 4

   24 September 2021 at 9:39 am

   Who is this guy being trotted out to attack the COVID modeling? Seems like a political hit job flying under the cover of being scientific criticism. If it’s a genuine criticism it’s being used to generate headlines to support the assumptions of people who are anti-vax and suspicious of the health authorities.
   It is absolutely valid to put modeling out there to respond to the just open up calls. There definitely haven’t been these kind of numbers made available and it is important to have it out there. Most media is reporting the controversy and not making a judgement on the validity or not of claims, or even fully explaining the original model.
   All the RWNJ messaging has been about not giving in to fear and now this rebuttal pops up. Maybe it’s a coincidence.
   • Anne 4.1

     24 September 2021 at 10:20 am

     I think you're right newsense. Heard him rabbiting on TV last evening and formed the same view. Hadn't heard of him before and suspect he's got the pip because he's been ignored so decided to go on a vengeful rampage.
   • riffer 4.2

     24 September 2021 at 10:31 am

     According to Victoria University, unless I have the wrong guy,

     Rodney Jones is a Principal of Wigram Capital Advisors, an Asian-based macro advisory firm that provides economic analysis and advice to leading global investment funds on developments in Asia. Rodney has been based in Beijing since 2010, where Wigram Capital Advisors has a representative office.
     Rodney has been working as an economist and analyst in Asia for the last 28 years. His focus in that time has on the interaction between banks, the financial system and real economies across Asia. Most recently Wigram Capital Advisors has been a leader in understanding changes in the Chinese banking system, and how that has interacted with broader economic changes.
     Prior to establishing Wigram Capital Advisors in Hong Kong in 2001, he was a Managing Director and Partner with Soros Fund Management, heading up the research office in Hong Kong from 1994-2000. During this time Rodney was responsible for providing macro analysis and advice on Japan, China and Non-Japan Asia for the Quantum group of funds.
     Prior to joining Soros Fund, Rodney was an Economist with Bankers Trust Company (1992-93), and Kim Eng Securities (1990-92), both in Singapore.
     He is a graduate of the University of Auckland, New Zealand, with a MA (Hons) in Economics and a BCom.
     • Bearded Git 4.2.1

       24 September 2021 at 10:58 am

       Yes Riffer…they don't say on Stuff that Jones is an epidemiologist, they simply say that he is a Covid modeller. The kind of thing an economist could do that wanted NZ to open its borders.

       https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300414401/covid19-nz-rodney-jones-says-shaun-hendys-7000death-vaccine-model-doesnt-pass-plausibility-test

       Then there is this article today that also strongly supports, by implication, NZ opening its borders.

       https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/126468067/ireland-and-covid19-more-than-1000-cases-every-day-but-normality-looms

       The business establishment is desperate to ignore the deaths and long-term Covid effects of opening those borders. What they don't talk about is that the UK is currently running at Covid deaths of 52,000 annually in Summer. When Winter arrives this will doubtless double. The same approach in NZ would probably lead to 5-7000 deaths annually.
       • Nic the NZer 4.2.1.1

         24 September 2021 at 11:21 am

         Hendys model forecasts the scale of a single outbreak which is eventually contained. The scale of multiple outbreaks would be much worse, which is where the UK is at right now.
         • Bearded Git 4.2.1.1.1

           24 September 2021 at 1:18 pm

           Thanks Nic-that makes sense. The crazed border openers I talk about above do not.
       • McFlock 4.2.1.2

         24 September 2021 at 3:44 pm

         lols "covid modeller".

         Like "drone enthusiast".

         Gets him on telly, I guess.
         • dv 4.2.1.2.1

           24 September 2021 at 9:09 pm

           'Covid modeller'

           I know about excel ss
           • McFlock 4.2.1.2.1.1

             24 September 2021 at 9:38 pm

             lol

             I was possibly a bit harsh on Jones.

             The thing about stats is that lots of tools are used by lots of different disciplines: economics, physics, epidemiology, social sciences, etc.

             But knowing how to use a CNC machine doesn't mean that you know whether a part you cut out will actually hold or be uitable for the application you want.

             I suspect Jones (as an economist) should know and understand about modelling a range of outcomes as different assumptions vary – pareto fronts come to mind as an example. This is what Hendy's reports do: show a range of outcomes according to different values for inputs (disease control methods, vaccine efficacy, etc).

             To argue that one value is unrealistic is farcical. Are the assumptions realistic, even if unlikely? From recollection, Hendy has co-authors with medical training. This lis like me, as CNC operator, having an engineer telling me why copper will fail if used instead of steel because copper will take the strain initially but work-harden and fail more quickly. Maybe Jones is missing a specialist who can say why Hendy's assumptions are plausible, rather than just pointing to an extreme on the continuum and saying "this is just unrealistic".

             But this is what a lot of tories have been doing: pointing to one figure along a range of possible outcomes and saying the entire report is bunk because they, personally, don't believe so many people will die. With no explanation about which assumptions are falling down, or how the methodology is flawed.
             • dv …

               24 September 2021 at 10:08 pm

               Good comment Mc
   • UncookedSelachimorpha 4.3

     24 September 2021 at 12:01 pm

     "Wigram Capital Advisors"

     Say no more.
     • Patricia Bremner 4.3.1

       24 September 2021 at 2:40 pm

       self interest?
   • Cricklewood 4.4

     24 September 2021 at 12:57 pm

     Rodney has done alot of work for govt with regards Covid he's also pretty damn clever with models and numb and been pretty consistent in his message around alarmist models including the early 80000 dead models. I think the criticism is valid he made the point that models like this will be compared to actuals say Singapore actually giving space for people to say w models are junk etc etc.
     • Poission 4.4.1

       24 September 2021 at 2:19 pm

       The Singapore model ( ie the reality of observations) is different from what Jones (an economist) is suggesting.

       Fatalities are in the realm of arbitrary axioms,so extrapolation of deaths would be best fit (to the curves ) from most European countries.eg

       Germany 1085 p/m

       Netherlands 1052p/m

       Sweden 1449p/m

       France 1646 p/m

       Singapore at present has 1504 cases and 2 deaths in latest release,it also has 1120 in Hospital with around 10% on oxygen and 23 in ICU

       https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/covid-19-sep-23-new-cases-record-number-2-deaths-2196891

       The Singapore model (forecast) also suggests by dec 2021

       Worst case 3299 deaths (1394.4-5255.16)

       Current projection 794 deaths (282.47-2019.64)
   • Incognito 4.5

     24 September 2021 at 1:44 pm

     Rodney Jones and Professor Shaun Hendy have been appointed as Special Advisors to the [strategic public health advisory] Group to assist with any modelling work that’s required.

     https://covid19.govt.nz/alert-levels-and-updates/latest-updates/independent-experts-to-advise-government-on-post-vaccination-future/

     Make of that what you will.
     • Patricia Bremner 4.5.1

       24 September 2021 at 9:09 pm

       Andrew getting people to work together. Bloomfield presenting Hendy by Zoom? Jones a tad miffed?
   • Incognito 4.6

     24 September 2021 at 2:30 pm

     The criticism by Jones was pathetic and no more than expressing some kind of gut feeling with a lot of hand waving. As so many, he got bogged down in and by the numbers, which are merely outputs of model simulations that depend on many assumptions and caveats as pointed out in the actual study report, and completely ignored and overlooked the guiding messages from these model runs. As a modeller himself, Jones should have known better. A major fail, in my not so humble opinion; he reminds me of similar Plan B failures.
   • SPC 4.7

     24 September 2021 at 3:09 pm

     It appeared to be an attempt to prevent public discussion about the consequences of community spread.

     Is Jones saying such modelling should not be done, or that the public should not know about it?

     The inference is that we should be managed to a tolerance for death by degree, until we have the rates overseas. Classic think of the interests of Global Capital …
     • newsense 4.7.1

       24 September 2021 at 11:47 pm

       Did feel very much like that SPC.
       A less political take would have questioned the model rather than used a number of buzz words associated with the current deniers and rejectionists.
       The way Cricklewood used the word alarmist above for example.

       If there are unvaccinated groups of people and we get several outbreaks among those populations where we’ve seen delta spread very quickly with an Rnumber of 4-5 and the fax it can still be transmitted by vaccinated people…

       It seems rather credible given what we’ve seen overseas to date and the way the virus has at least twice got into our hospitals, with the barest of escapes.

       Anyhou tomorrow being another day
5. Ad 5

   24 September 2021 at 11:05 am

   3 days ago, Australia's 60 Minutes did a full debate on the consequences of war with China over Taiwan, and the impact of that on Australia.

   There were 5 main debaters – all specialists – and none of them were optimistic. Including whether a US-led defence of Taiwan would prevail.

   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kA2KaEKs1LA

   Australia committing itself so deeply to submarine attack capacity starts to answer some of the belligerence coming from Xi Jinping in his big July speech.

   https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-57648236

   The 60 Minutes debate is a rare MSM open debate on defence issues pertaining to Australia, so it's worth your 41 minutes on that alone.
   • RedLogix 5.1

     24 September 2021 at 11:23 am

     What will be ignored by all the marxist apologists here is the extraordinary rhetoric, the open belligerence, military build up, and weaponised trade that Xi Xinping has thrown at us. Their denial flies completely in the face of this reality.

     An actual war with China would be utterly devastating, but in my view it will only happen if Xi Xinping thinks he can start one and win with minimal cost. That's the brutal calculus we face in the short-term.

     A very good link that explores the issue well – there are a lot aspects to this – and none of them good.
     • Brigid 5.1.1

       24 September 2021 at 11:51 am

       " the open belligerence, military build up, and weaponised trade that Xi Xinping has thrown at us."

       Care to elaborate?
       • Ad 5.1.1.1

         24 September 2021 at 11:59 am

         It's all detailed pretty closely in the range of experts provided by 60 Minutes in the link I provided for you.
         • Subliminal 5.1.1.1.1

           24 September 2021 at 6:12 pm

           What we get is the usual scary music and a rant from a war mongering US general and an "analyst" from ASPI who are funded by the US State Dept, and weapons manufacturers. Anybody talking up a Chinese invasion of Australia is living in lala land. Even Taiwan, now that the US has left Afghanistan and put all its eggs in the Pacific basket, China can just patiently wait for the next "incident". Time is showing that the US is not capable of cooperation and is fast loosing allies. The EU will soon be looking for more independent contact with China. They are none too happy with the ramped up US belligerence.
           • Ad 5.1.1.1.1.1

             24 September 2021 at 6:51 pm

             I'm none too happy with the belligerence of China towards Taiwan either. Hasn't worked out well for Hong Kong this year.

             60 Minutes is a good representative of mainstream media thinking, and what it had to say was much darker in tone than we would ever admit in New Zealand. Simply for understanding that it was worthwhile.
             • Subliminal …

               24 September 2021 at 9:35 pm

               Except that in NZ we've already had the scary music treatment from Guyon Espiner. And what did that amount to? Fear that China was being too generous in it's loan terms to a Far North Maori broadband provider. I mean it's kind of unbelievable really. Hong Kong, Taiwan and Tibet are deeply tied up in Chinese identity. Australia is not. Taiwan is still not settled but to somehow propose that the way Taiwan resolves will impact on the integrity of Australia is madness. Belligerence is something that large powerful states seem to do but to propose that Chinese belligerence towards Australia in their trade war requires the beating of war drums but US belligerence towards Cuba, Iran, Venezuela etc in the form of sanctions does not is quite ridiculous and exposes the hypocrisy of the supposed rules based US system. I've yet to read of deaths in Australia caused by Chinese trade sanctions but could supply you with many reports on deaths caused by the inability of the above sanctioned countries to secure vital medicine and food. In Lebanon at present, Hezbollah has had to arrange for tankers from Iran to supply fuel because of US sanctions that wont even let hospitals generate electricity. At present they get a mere two hours of electricity per day and their whole grid is expected to collapse by the end of this month. This is real life and death stuff. People have been dying from these sanctions for quite some time, They died yesterday, they are dying today and some more will die tomorrow.
               • Ad …

                 24 September 2021 at 10:00 pm

                 "Hong Kong, Taiwan and Tibet are deeply tied up in Chinese identity. Australia is not." About 6% of Australians say they are of Chinese origin.

                 If we defend people based on their ethnicity, we have no value left except race. That may be how we started this country but it's not the way we are now.

                 I sure don't condone a march to war: I'm suggesting we watch what Australia is doing very, very closely because it is in our interests to do so.
                 • Subliminal …

                   24 September 2021 at 10:28 pm

                   The reference to identity was more to suggest that while China is interested in Taiwan, it is not interested in Australia for anything other than trade. The identity being alluded to is far more than ethnicity. It includes place and history. It also includes a small matter of an unfinished civil war. And then for the US to step in and dictate to who and what certain parts of Taiwan may trade is more fuel to the fire. They may believe that they have everything nicely under control but there is much evidence around the world that if they are wrong in this assumption and Taiwan and vicinity ends up as charred ruins then this will be a close second best in their eyes. For a non cooperating entity, if its not there's, the only alternative is destruction. Thats what zero sum means and thats what confrontation involves and thats why situations such as the dead half miliion Iraqi children and the collapse of the Lebanese grid are "worth it"
                   • gsays …

                     24 September 2021 at 11:39 pm

                     Thanks Subliminal, you said a whole bunch of stuff that I reckon but lack the eloquence and energy to state.

                     This whole UKUSA, or USUK A as some wag has already pointed out, is no more than willy waving writ large.

                     While a welcome relief from COVID…! it feels like the flailings of a failing empire.
                   • Subliminal []

                     25 September 2021 at 8:37 am

                     All good gsays. I have also appreciated many of your well argued posts.
                   • Subliminal []

                     25 September 2021 at 8:47 am

                     Gsays, if you can get hold of a copy of Robert Axelrods "The Evolution of Cooperation", its a mind blowing read!
                   • RedLogix …

                     25 September 2021 at 1:04 am

                     Yes. The US is a ruthless great power – and Xi Xinping aspires for China to be one as well. In the current world we live in this kind of contest is going to be a zero sum game. No-one likes this, but it's true.

                     If I stop pretending that either the US or the PRC are are standing on any moral high ground and simply make a choice based on logical outcomes the debate becomes a lot clearer.

                     We could side with China. Well this makes AU/NZ an enemy of the USA, and given what you believe of the US, does anyone here think this a smart choice?

                     Maybe the Chinese get lucky and win. Given how regional hegemons operate does anyone for an instant imagine that the PRC will not interfere in our sovereignty in any number of horrible ways? The US has a plenty shabby track record of just this, and the PRC shows no lack of compunction about interfering with other nations either – just ask any number of their neighbours. Tibet, Hong Kong, Japan, Vietnam and not to mention Taiwan.

                     Indeed they seem to be just getting started judging by the massive military that has being built up and being told by their President for Life to prepare for imminent war.

                     So it really just comes down to a 'least bad choice' and we're going to go with the USA. Pretending we can sit on the fence and still trade with China, while expecting the USA to provide security for our trade is a delusion.
                   • Subliminal []

                     25 September 2021 at 8:35 am

                     There is one major difference between the US and the Chinese approach to foreign policy and that is the extraordinarily massive infrastructure build that is the BRI. It is on a scale that has not been seen before in the world and is forecast to cost more than a trillion dollars. The US doesnt do infrastructure building on any scale. It makes no sense in a world that may require trashing the very country that you have built the infrastructure in. A country that operates on a cooperative model of win win is happy to build infrastructure. They are unlikely to then turn around and destroy what they have just spent billions helping to build. You say it is always zero sum and historically this is so. Zero sum is a stable system that can beat individual or isolated attempts at cooperation. But analysis of iterated prisoners dilemma interactions shows that even a small group of cooperative players will establish and beat zero sum players to the extent that zero sum will become extinct. Of course this analysis assumes that the environment reamains a prisoners dilemma environment. War changes the environment and gives zero sum a new chance to dominate by destroying the cooperative groups viability. Proposing that the Chinese BRI is some kind of act of war is thus ridiculous and choices over who to support are childishly simple. Supporting someone proposing to build infrastructure is always preferable to someone proposing to build military bases and military hardware.
                   • RedLogix …

                     25 September 2021 at 11:24 am

                     There is one major difference between the US and the Chinese approach to foreign policy and that is the extraordinarily massive infrastructure build that is the BRI. It is on a scale that has not been seen before in the world and is forecast to cost more than a trillion dollars.

                     Nope. This analysis omits a number of elements.

                     First of all it erases the fact of the US providing for the past 70yrs the single most crucial piece of 'infrastructure' of all – security. Without this everything else is pointless. It was done this in three main ways – first of all it took war between all the other nations off the table. Secondly it's massive navy explicitly guaranteed Freedom of Navigation for everyone – even Soviet merchant vessels during the Cold War.

                     Thirdly it played a central role in first containing and then crushing not one four authoritarian, mass murdering imperial regimes – Nazi Germany, North Korea, the Stalinist Soviets and the Maoist PRC. (In my book the the only important difference between fascism and marxism is the latter replaces a totalitarianism energised by race and identity – with an intellectual wank based on class.)

                     In this post-WW2 environment much of the world has developed beyond all human precedent. This is a fact beyond dispute. The only exceptions were those nations geographically so poor that development was always going to be hard – and those stupid enough not to be on the side of the US.

                     Yet WW2 US never acted as an imperial power in the classic territorial meaning. With few exceptions they don't claim the territories and waters of other nations for themselves, and they don't mass migrate their people into displacing local populations either economically or demographically. Nor are they all that big on disrupting and displacing the indigenous economic activity with trillons of dollars of physical infrastructure.

                     The pattern of the US hegemon was this – provide the political, security and commercial infrastructure to the world – and let everyone get on with becoming rich as best they could. And all the evidence tells us this has worked as never before in human history. There was just one rule they were very ruthless about – be on their side against totalitarianism. Given the history of the 20th century it's obvious why.

                     And up until Xi Xinping becoming President for Life, setting the PRC on a retrograde totalitarian path to cement both his own meglomaniac ambition and the eternal power of the CCP – everyone was reasonably OK with the idea of the PRC taking it's place in this order of things. But now all the soothing words about 'co-operation' mean nothing if the actions of the PRC speak to an absolutist crushing of internal dissent, diplomatic rhetoric intended to intimidate it's neighbours, and an expansionist military that can serve only one purpose – to invade, occupy and consume independent nations across the whole of Eurasia and the Pacific.

                     When Xi Xinping orders the PRC military to 'prepare for war' – there is every reason to believe him.
                   • joe90 …

                     25 September 2021 at 12:09 pm

                     The US doesnt do infrastructure building on any scale.

                     Cite?

                     Conclusion

                     Based on the foregoing comparative analysis of US and Chinese aid programs, several observations can be made. First, both China and the US have actively used their foreign aid and official finance activities to advance their perceived geostrategic and economic interests. Foreign aid has been used by both donor states to foster political influence in recipient governments in ways that can eventually benefit their interests. Both the US and China formally started their foreign aid programs during their respective periods of ascent as economic powerhouses, and their market expansion and wealth accumulation initiatives have been facilitated by the foreign aid conditions imposed on recipient countries. Second, while Washington has been transparent and specific in classifying its various aid programs, Beijing has yet to further institutionalise its foreign aid bureaucracy and to organise its taxonomy of official development aid schemes so that they are comparable to those of other OECD donor states. Third, the legitimation discourses of Chinese and US aid programs are different. While Beijing legitimises its aid interventions by highlighting South-South cooperation, non-conditional altruism and a state-centred development model, Washington justifies its interventionist aid by framing market economies, democratic governance and human rights as quintessential principles for development. This marked difference in legitimation discourses is also reflected in the nature of their aid recipients: Beijing considers states its key recipients; Washington provides aid to a wide variety of states and non-state actors. Finally, foreign aid is not only the most visible and concrete form of influence that a powerful state deploys in weaker countries; it is also one of the most enduring features of the international system. No matter how destructive or beneficial foreign aid can be for a recipient country, the United States and China, as status quo and challenger powers respectively, deploy various legitimation discourses in order to galvanise political support in their own domestic constituencies and the people in recipient countries.

                     https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03932729.2020.1855904
                   • RedLogix …

                     25 September 2021 at 12:25 pm

                     @joe

                     In the context of the comment I'm comparing the US track record in physical infrastructure development – to that of the BRI.
                   • joe90 …

                     25 September 2021 at 12:28 pm

                     @RL

                     ta, looking forward to it
       • RedLogix 5.1.1.2

         24 September 2021 at 12:03 pm

         Pay attention. Maybe even watch the 60 Minutes clip – it covers the basics well.

         Are you prepared to sit back and do nothing when the PRC takes Taiwan by force? An independent and democratic nation just like NZ?

         And do you for one instant imagine the immense military build up of PRC forces this past decade is not intended for this exact purpose?
         • SPC 5.1.1.2.1

           24 September 2021 at 3:40 pm

           Taiwan is not recognised as a nation state, nor does it claim to be one.
           • RedLogix 5.1.1.2.1.1

             24 September 2021 at 6:12 pm

             The ROC has maintained an independent govt since 1949. It has been a democracy since the 70's.

             Pretending otherwise is not an argument.
             • SPC …

               24 September 2021 at 6:38 pm

               The USA, the UK and Australia all recognise Taiwan is part of the one China.

               For decades after 1949 the government in exile claimed to be the government of China, not the island of Taiwan. After end of international recognition of its government as the government of China, it had to establish legitimacy for itself on the island of Taiwan – this lead to democratic reforms in the 1980's, then its first Presidential election in 1996.

               Put it this way, the UNSC is expected to prove a collective security guarantee to member states. Taiwan has no such status.
               • Ad …

                 24 September 2021 at 6:56 pm

                 Whether Taiwan is recognised as worth defending by the United Nations is depressingly irrelevant.

                 Taiwan is a liberal, tolerant, open-minded, capitalist, high-functioning state that is also a relatively recent and high-functioning democracy.

                 Were Xi Jinping to make good on his threats, the region and indeed the world would lose one more state which is almost exactly like us.

                 So we might ask ourselves, as Australia clearly is, whether we want to help defend those qualities by helping to defend Taiwan.
                 • SPC …

                   24 September 2021 at 7:31 pm

                   New Zealand is well known for multilateralism and due regard for international law.

                   This informed our decisions in 1950 (Korea) and 1991 (Kuwait) and again in 2003, when we did not join in the regime change operation in Iraq.

                   Your opine on Taiwan, is frankly irrelevant, they see themselves as part of China and have stated no intent to ever declare independence from the one China.

                   There seems to be a presumption among some here that AUKUS has something to do with Chinese asserting dominion over the territory of the one China by flying over it from time to time etc.

                   No, AUKUS is something sought by Oz to commit the US to its territorial integrity and provide itself with some greater deterrent (offshore sea defence and missile capability). This has more to do with the atoll based aircraft carriers China recently created and their related rejection of the Permanent Court of Arbitration decision. It's about a longer game than Taiwan.
                   • Ad …

                     24 September 2021 at 8:19 pm

                     Taiwanese have a very negative view of China.

                     https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/05/12/in-taiwan-views-of-mainland-china-mostly-negative/

                     I haven't mentioned AUKUS. I have mentioned the Quad meeting coming up tomorrow. That's India, Japan, Australia, United States.

                     The threats against Taiwan by CHina are also being felt by Japan, Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines.

                     China needs to figure out how to make more friends. Everyone around them has.
                   • Muttonbird …

                     24 September 2021 at 8:28 pm

                     China has heaps of friends. You for one, who is no doubt using a device made by them.
                   • SPC …

                     24 September 2021 at 8:50 pm

                     I’m using a PC made stateside, but I think their foreign policy sucks.
                   • SPC …

                     24 September 2021 at 8:56 pm

                     And a lot of people have a negative view of Wellington, but their capital is there all the same.

                     Put it another way, how many nations in the ME agreed with US policy in support of Israel, yet the USA did what they did in that region all the same. Then there were the dictatorships in the America’s supported by the USA, so long as they were anti-commie. Nations asserting hegemony are what they are.

                     My point is that our regional security is not synonymous with the matter of the one China.
                   • RedLogix …

                     25 September 2021 at 1:20 am

                     they see themselves as part of China and have stated no intent to ever declare independence from the one China.

                     A fiction that everyone played along with as the price paid to maintain a relationship with the PRC.

                     After 1949 the PRC and ROC each laid a legitimate claim to both territories. For their part the ROC recognised that the civil war between the two govts was over for all practical purposes some decades ago and set aside their claim to the mainland.

                     By contrast the PRC has only intensified their claim over Taiwan. The degree of diplomatic pressure they bring to bear is astonishing. Recently a school mural in Queensland had on one small part of it a Taiwanese flag – and the Chinese govt insisted that it be painted over. A schoolkids painting in another country – FFS.

                     The whole 'one country, two systems' farce was tolerable as long as everyone played along with it. Now Xi Xinping has declared that Taiwan will be re-taken by armed force; the game is over and no-one is pretending anymore.

                     The next big intensity uptick will be the Olympics – will the Biden Administration decide to boycott the ‘Genocide Games’?
                   • Muttonbird …

                     25 September 2021 at 6:57 pm

                     @Redlogix.

                     Now Xi Xinping has declared that Taiwan will be re-taken by armed force.

                     I don't have the time or energy to search for where he said this. Could you please provide a quote and a link?
                   • Muttonbird …

                     25 September 2021 at 7:07 pm

                     And apologies to @SPC. My reply at 8:28pm last night was to Ad's typically pithy comment at 8:19pm.

                     China making foreign friends? That's all they've done for the last 30 years on the back of maltreated domestic labour.
                   • SPC …

                     25 September 2021 at 9:51 pm

                     It's longstanding Chinese policy to warn Taiwan that declaring independence (from the one China) means war.

                     (PS Muttonbird, I realised that while trying to make some sort of reply).
                   • RedLogix …

                     25 September 2021 at 10:53 pm

                     If Australia was to maintain a ‘long standing policy’ that because NZ is still formally a potential part of the Australian Federal Constitution and that for this reason if we were to declare our independence this would mean war – you would see what was going on quite clearly.
         • Brigid 5.1.1.2.2

           24 September 2021 at 4:15 pm

           "the PRC takes Taiwan by force"?

           Hilarious

           "On January 1, 1979, the United States established official diplomatic relations with China, formally recognizing the government of the PRC as the sole legitimate government of China and Taiwan as a part of China and, at the same time announcing the cessation of "diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities, the annulment of the "Mutual Defense Treaty" and the withdrawal of all its military personnel from Taiwan. In these historical conditions, the Chinese government, out of consideration for the interests and future of the whole nation, put forward the principle of "peaceful reunification of the country, and one country, two systems" in accordance with the principle of respecting history and reality, seeking truth from facts and taking into account the interests of both sides."

           Does the US recognise the One China Policy?

           Does the US have an Embassy in Taiwan?

           You're so ignorant it's laughable

           The fact that the BBC spew propaganda that confirms your bias is not a good enough reason for anyone to take their 'clip' seriously.
         • Brigid 5.1.1.2.3

           24 September 2021 at 5:11 pm

           I understand your concern, I do.

           That Australia is minion to the biggest global state sponsor of terror, and has convinced itself that China is an enemy irrespective of any evidence, doesn't bode well regarding your safety
           • RedLogix 5.1.1.2.3.1

             24 September 2021 at 6:06 pm

             That you chose not to answer my question is obvious.
             • arkie …

               24 September 2021 at 6:51 pm

               

               What is it exactly that we should focus on in this graph?

               Obviously China.
     • DukeEll 5.1.2

       24 September 2021 at 1:01 pm

       The Maoist apologists would also have us believe Chinese rule wouldn’t be that bad as there is no evidence of Uighur being persecuted, tibet is historically chains and hong kong is a fine example of when Chinese government takes over from western style government.

       i personally look forward to not seeing effeminate men on television. Mark richardson will be long gone
       • Peter 1 5.1.2.1

         24 September 2021 at 2:30 pm

         Lets compare how many countries has the USA invaded, overthrown, bombed,

         how many innocents have they murdered over the last 40 years.

         the yanks would sell us down the river for 2 cents
     • SPC 5.1.3

       24 September 2021 at 3:16 pm

       Are those who quibble with Enzed participation in Cold War, really Marxists?

       For mine, that's a reprise of the "with the US or a fellow traveller with commies", or siding with the USA or siding with terrorists post 2001.

       As for weaponised trade, Trump trashed the WTO and Biden has yet to give any indication he will do anything about it (not appointing judges for arbitration)
       • Gabby 5.1.3.1

         24 September 2021 at 5:36 pm

         No well reds obviously only referring to marxists, not reasonable folk who recognise the depravity of yankistani foreign policy.
   • RedLogix 5.2

     24 September 2021 at 11:43 am

     The nuclear question is simple – all conventional wars between major powers will escalate to nuclear because the weaker side is left with no other good options.
     • Ad 5.2.1

       24 September 2021 at 12:00 pm

       If a war over Taiwan drew in the United States, Korea and Japan, it is not clear who would be the weaker side.
       • RedLogix 5.2.1.1

         24 September 2021 at 12:12 pm

         Understood – there are multiple ways to analyse this. Obviously the PRC would have an immense advantage in terms of proximity to the immediate battlefield, but it's my sense that very quickly almost the entire world would be drawn into this conflict. No-one would even get the choice of 'sitting it out'.

         And in that event the PRC would cease to exist. Which is a measure of Xi Xinping's folly.
         • Ad 5.2.1.1.1

           24 September 2021 at 12:56 pm

           This kind of discussion is going to get really noisy next week as we start to digest the outcome of tomorrow's Quad Meeting.

           https://edition.cnn.com/2021/09/23/asia/us-china-india-australia-japan-quad-intl-hnk/index.html
   • Muttonbird 5.3

     24 September 2021 at 4:01 pm

     Aukus is inventing a war that isn't there. A repeat of the call to arms on flimsy evidence in 2001 as referenced above.

     Australia has to be the dimmest nation on earth. Why create such animosity with your major trading partner. I suspect the staggering egos of their conservative government has a lot to do with it.
   • Stuart Munro 5.4

     24 September 2021 at 4:51 pm

     A good piece – but I don't think it really got into the mechanics of how an incident might start or escalate. As it stands, Taiwan looks like a costly adventure for China, much depends on what resources or pretexts could be marshalled to make any such move a fait accompli as soon as possible. A vassal state like North Korea might well trigger an incident for example.

     Submarines on a twenty year order cycle don't present much of an obstacle, and, if China were to nuke Oz, NZ would be drawn into the conflict willing or not. A trained anti- bushfire task force could find plenty of peacetime use, and a stock of CBW gear and medical capacity would be prudent. Some of it could find use as a Covid reserve for the moment.
   • Patricia Bremner 5.5

     24 September 2021 at 9:21 pm

     Ad, at near 80 I have lived through so many bogey men.

     What were the real issues?

     Racial attitudes- Financial collapse- Biodiversity loss -terrorism and a pandemic.

     Over riding all of this is climate change.

     We do not need to find weapons of mass destruction all over again, as we have enough life threatening situations already.

     We need to co-operate. Extreme positions are dangerous. Rule of Law always.
     • gsays 5.5.1

       25 September 2021 at 12:10 am

       Bugger, I thought, for a moment there, I was a Marxist.

       Thanks for yr benefit and wisdom of years walking this planet.

       Sharing and cooperation IS the forward. Anything else is your enemy.

       https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XAPfNPIvWkM

       "The finger to the land of the chains
       What? The land of the free?
       Whoever told you that is your enemy?

       Yes I know my enemies
       They’re the teachers who taught me to fight me
       Compromise, conformity, assimilation, submission
       Ignorance, hypocrisy, brutality, the elite
       All of which are American dreams (8 times)"

       None of that is at you Patricia.
6. bwaghorn 6

   24 September 2021 at 12:33 pm

   https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/126472402/how-social-insurance-could-provide-a-safety-net-for-nzs-most-vulnerable-workers

   As someone who has been made redundant twice(##$$$fletcher forestry bunch of #$$%##) this would have made a massive difference to my life rather than it being just being thrown into disarray,!
   • Ad 6.1

     24 September 2021 at 12:57 pm

     Robertson has been going on about this for over a term.

     We've had it implemented nationwide in a very strong form on a company bases over the COVID outbreaks.

     Why is he so slow on this?
     • bwaghorn 6.1.1

       24 September 2021 at 2:05 pm

       While I'm unlikely to get laid off again (unless you plant all our farms in trees😉) I'd gladly pay 1% of my income to set up an acc type scheme for layoffs.
       • Ad 6.1.1.1

         24 September 2021 at 2:11 pm

         I would rather the government did their job and made ACC simply expand their existing provisions. Can't do worse than MSD.
   • Patricia Bremner 6.2

     24 September 2021 at 9:25 pm

     Yes, ACC helps recovery and preserves income.

     A similar scheme for the loss of employment would stop fractured lives.
7. bwaghorn 7

   24 September 2021 at 12:39 pm

   Just saw simon bridges say hes getting a haircut tomorrow, some said here recently that that's the sign the coup is a go. !
   • Ad 7.1

     24 September 2021 at 1:05 pm

     Perhaps it's a precursor to getting a real job.
     • Macro 7.1.1

       24 September 2021 at 4:37 pm

       

       https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3w7CrxLj36I
       • Patricia Bremner 7.1.1.1

         24 September 2021 at 9:33 pm

         food for thought .
   • Muttonbird 7.2

     24 September 2021 at 3:52 pm

     Feels like he's remodelling himself on John Keys again. He's having a second go at the, "aw-shucks, me?" regular bloke style.

     This in attempt to contrast with Jacinda Ardern's sincere, compassionate earnestness.
     • chris T 7.2.1

       25 September 2021 at 10:33 pm

       "Key" not Keys"

       But get it is hard for you to get this stuff right.
8. Muttonbird 8

   24 September 2021 at 4:30 pm

   Man-baby Nazis

   – Bill Shorten, on the Melbourne protesters.

   There's a bloke who should be Prime Minister.

   https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/sep/21/what-do-we-know-about-the-protests-in-melbourne-and-how-did-the-numbers-grow
   • mauī 8.1

     25 September 2021 at 10:14 pm

     No surprises there, much of what poses for the left nowadays wouldn't recognise the working class if they turned up in work gear at their union office.
     • RedLogix 8.1.1

       25 September 2021 at 10:49 pm

       lol – so fucking true.
     • joe90 8.1.2

       25 September 2021 at 10:51 pm

       And a bloke from the moneyed, middle-class part of Melbourne whose parents could afford to pass up a scholarship to an exclusive school and send him to another even more exclusive school, with double the fees, more to their liking. A bloke who helped a Labor Right aligned faction to take over a Young Labor branch from the Socialist Left . A bloke credibly accused of neck-deep involvement in good, old fashioned Aussie union corruption.

       Would that bloke recognise the working class if they turned up in work gear at their union office?

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