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Open mike 24/11/2011

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, November 24th, 2011 - 149 comments
Categories: open mike - Tags:

Open mike is your post. For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the link to Policy in the banner).

Step right up to the mike…

149 comments on “Open mike 24/11/2011 ”

  1. Neither Farrar nor the slithery one have any posts on last night’s debate. Could it be that they agree that Goff won handsomely but cannot bring themselves to say this?

    It was that convincing a win I thought we would see a “Guyon Espinar is a member of the Labour Party” theme develop.

    • Carol 1.1

      Curiously, Tim Watkin at Pundit, gives the debate to Key.


      Phil Goff had the details and the studio craft, but after a nervous start John Key had the authority. It’s one of the things that a Prime Minister gains simply by going into work every day – and Key got the tone right to edge Goff in tonight’s debate. Not that the legacy of his night’s work won’t have ramifications.

      To me Key didn’t show authority but a disdain for opposition, democratic debate and open discussion. This disdain to me is based in an authoritarian tendency (a feature of Key’s tenure in government).

      So I’m curious as to what seemed very evident to me as weakness in Key, should be read as someone else s a strength? Maybe it dpends in how aware one is of body language and non-verbal communication? And Key’s was appalling in the debate. He looked like he had no patience with democratic process.

      • just saying 1.1.1

        I quite liked this typo from Tim:

        But Key kept is cool with a measured, clam performance.

        Nice analogy – cold, hard, closed, slimy, lives in the darkness……

        But seriously, for those who don’t already see through Key (yet), this debate won’t have changed anything imo. I don’t know how it’s even possible to penetrate the wall of lies, malicious innuendo, and misinformation that he puts up. To even seriously try in a debate like that would probably be counter-productive. I’ve never seen any politician use the strategy of telling so many lies, that meaningful discussion is impossible. It doesn’t seem like it should work. But sadly, it does, and did last night imo.

        • Draco T Bastard

          Nice analogy – cold, hard, closed, slimy, lives in the darkness…


          But seriously, for those who don’t already see through Key (yet), this debate won’t have changed anything imo.

          Those people who see him as a “leader” will defend him no matter what he does.

      • felix 1.1.2

        Watkins: “It’s one of the things that a Prime Minister gains simply by going into work every day…”

        lolz, since when has Key gone to work every day?

        • Lanthanide

          Pfft felix, he works 19 hours a day 7 days week, everyone knows that!

          • The Voice of Reason

            And does it all for free, donating all his miserly salary to a charity that he’s too modest to name!

    • Of course you saw a convincing win. You probably think Labour can win on Saturday.

      Farrar was busy on Back Benches.

      The TVNZ text poll favoured Key (about 2/3). I think most people will have seen what they wanted in the debate, I doubt it will have converted many votes.

      • Tigger 1.2.1

        Yes PG, that utterly scientific text poll was certainly a completely accurate representation of how NZ feels…

        • Pete George

          I don’t rate polls like that, I couldn’t be bothereds looking up the actual figures. I don’t know if text polls that cost have been analised, but people who respond could range from rich pricks who have money to waste to beneficiaries who have other people’s money to waste.

          Most voters don’t watch debates or follow politics, they vote based on hard to explain inclinations towards a party or a leader.

          • kriswgtn

            ::but people who respond could range from rich pricks who have money to waste to beneficiaries who have other people’s money to waste.””

            Excuse me??
            who the hell do you think you are?

            this is why you are your stupid leader wont get back in

            why dont you just give up trying and trolling and focus on getting a real job instead of this sort of crap

          • uke

            “…beneficiaries who have other people’s money to waste…”

            You mean like Double-Dipton and Summer-Holiday Hide?

          • freedom

            75c a text,
            give up almost half a litre of milk to push the propoganda of a media company, i think not

            • Deadly_NZ

              Yep kept me quiet I got better things to but with my money like formula for my 6 month old.

          • rosy

            ahem… Freudian slip in there somewhere Pete?

            • Pete George

              No, I was referring to two extremes.

              Some rich people waste money. Some beneficiaries waste money (many don’t).
              In my opinion anyone who participates in text polls is wasting their money.

              • just saying

                As a beneficiary yourself Pete, do you consider your benefit to be “other people’s money”, or your own?

              • freedom

                why have you added a qualifier Pete? you said ‘beneficiaries’, now its ‘some beneficiaries’

                realising your ad hominem attacks are unwarranted and ignorant?

              • rosy

                No, not that Pete… That’s not how you spell analysed…

              • kriswgtn

                No you werre not
                I have facebooked this comment and it is now in the process of showing the Dunedin people exactly what you really stand for.
                o the power of the Internet 🙂

          • Draco T Bastard

            I don’t know if text polls that cost have been analised,

            Well, the polls probably haven’t but the people who text into them certainly have 😈

            but people who respond could range from rich pricks who have money to waste to beneficiaries who have other people’s money to waste.

            Ah, and the bene bashing comes out from the UF representative.

          • Lanthanide

            “Most voters don’t watch debates or follow politics, they vote based on hard to explain inclinations towards a party or a leader.”

            Code words for “sensible people vote UF”, I guess.

          • Vicky32

            “to beneficiaries who have other people’s money to waste.”

            WTH? Bang went any remote chance of my ever voting for UF… You nasty POS… You have joined the list of people on whom I wish beneficiary status, along with the silly bitch I was arguing with yesterday on FB, the married ‘lady’ who thinks all women with children and a broken relationship should starve with their kids or work at what she called a “gas station”…

      • Carol 1.2.2

        And yet National cheerleader Tacy Watkins, gives the debate to Goff…. well kinda… she first says Goff scored the “knock-out punch” when he dropped in the question about National secretely planning to cut police numbers. But in Watkins’ final line she calls it “an even match”.


      • millsy 1.2.3

        National may win by a huge margin, but I just hope ACT and United Future are consigned to history…

      • AAMC 1.2.4

        PG, the Most common comment I read on the #leadersdebate & #oneness twitter feeds was you g people stating the poll was a farce cause none of them could afford or were prepared to spen the 75c to txt in. They seemed pretty clear in their belief that the poll played to the rich Nat supporters advantage.

        But I keep forgetting, you like the nats are caught in that 19th century thinking…

    • Lazy Susan 1.3

      Key’s body language was appalling. He rarely could look Goff in the eye and the dead eyes and downturned mouth when Goff was speaking was extremely defensive and closed. The hand wringing was also a sign of discomfort. Shifty and uncomfortable would how I’d describe Key.

      And how many times did Key start his answers with “So, let me tell you what we’re doing” or similar? He’d learnt the script but where was the passion?

      John Johannsen shamed Key on the STV lie – shame no-one picked him up on the others.

      P.S. Clare Robinson’s face as JJ laid into Key was a beautiful television moment.

      • Pete George 1.3.1

        The post debate discussion was nonsensical, why did they bother, a 30 second sound bite was all they could fit it.

        • Lazy Susan

          Yes it did seem strange to have the two commentators there only to give them a couple a minutes at the end but I guess the debate overran and they’re working within the constraints of commercial television.

          Having said that, exposing Key telling porkies again and clarifying the problems with STV is far from non-sensical. More a very useful contribution to the democratic process.

          • ianmac

            They did have another go at 10:30 with a repeat of JJ indignation over Key/MMP v SM.
            Don’t like the way though that JJ says that this election is really a setting up for 2014 saying that this one is lost for Labour. It ain’t over yet.

      • uturn 1.3.2

        Anyone who recognised Key’s scolded petuant school boy act as “authority” has spent too much time in corporates. Those with organisational authority might behave like that, but it’s the behaviour of arrogant insecure two-faced liars and schemers. If any more proof was needed to see that Key has never intended to debate anything, last night was the grossest display. Key behaved like many people I’ve met professionally behave and that is the problem. They will see themselves and vote accordingly. This election may just be a measure of how far NZs people have become degraded.

        • Olwyn

          Well said, uturn: I was astonished when I read that Key’s performance was seen as authoritative when what I mostly saw was the facial expression of the bitchy girl in one of those high school dramas. I am also interested in your suggestion that “This election may just be a measure of how far NZs people have become degraded.” Last night I watched Michael Sandel’s lecture on Rawls, which really showed up the limits of our current mode of debate. In such a small country, treating poverty & privation as something to we will get round to addressing when we can afford it rather than something immediate and compelling, is by itself evidence of degradation. Especially where it is accompanied by an enthusiastic interest in life-styles.

          • ianmac

            The real authority is John Armstrong. He saw John Key displaying gravitas! Bless my soul if I had one. Gravitas? John Key? Perhaps Armstrong writes in jest.

            • Blue

              It’s Armstrong’s term for Key’s sullen face. He has no idea what gravitas actually means.

          • uturn

            The idea that poverty is a concern only once we can afford it was also presented during the documentary on TV3 a few nights ago. It used 3/4 of the story to show what a mistake it is to interpret the economy as a thing which the people serve, rather than a by-product of the way people live, then promptly finished up by convincing viewers that solutions were all about saving money. Yep, seems that even when people stare the obvious in the face they have difficulty knowing what they’re looking at.

            • Draco T Bastard

              People have forgotten, and this is primarily the fault of the economists who have also forgotten, what the economy is and what it’s for. These days people see the economy as the movement of money and that it’s solely there to make a profit. Hence why the growth in GDP is seen as the be all, end all of the economy (increased movement of money), why we celebrate people who have lots of it (making a large profit), scorn those who don’t and then blame their circumstances upon them instead of questioning our socio-economic systems that actively create the poverty.

              • AAMC

                And so, we continue to claim growth at the hands of our GDP obcession, and ignore the Real economy, at our peril.

                I still like Steve Keen’s line best, “economists don’t understand the economy, they understand A model of the economy”

                • Draco T Bastard

                  That line Steve Keen is almost right. The bit that he got wrong is that economists don’t even have a model of the economy. What they have is a hypothesis of how they think the economy works (which they may or may not understand) that they’re not changing despite all the evidence that that is not how the economy works.

                  • AAMC

                    Nah, I think that’s exactly what he’s getting at, he says we may progress in economics, one funeral at a time. Their Model being their Hypothesis, or more specifically in my mind, their FAITH!

      • AAMC 1.3.3

        Have you all noticed this “so, let me just tell you” is how all Nats start each sentence, Nikki K was very pronounced with this on Backbenchers against Jacinda. All got the same coach eh!

        • Lanthanide

          Nah, Nikki has just been doing personal studies of John Key’s debate performances. Probably watches them two or three times a day to get the talking points down pat.

    • Deadly_NZ 1.4

      And Farrar has been very quiet like nothing for a few days on the Herald or Stuff. From what I saw of the debate last night Phil showed John up for the nasty psycopath he is. And now his police force have ‘collected all the evidence’ including the tea tape copies now how long for these to either go missing or get corrupted some how. I hope someone has a copy or 2 hidden away for insurance

  2. tc 2

    What I saw was a very slimy sneering PM who had the slogans but not the actual coal face knowledge, Goff sucker lunched him on the police numbers issue and generally showed a much better grasp…. No surprises there.

    Gluon finds a backbone on some issues finally and pinned Key down but too little to late methinks, just shows he can but never bothered till now.

    Wouldnt a nat greens coalition with Act gone be fascinating, no asset sales and a toned down right wing approach…..bet they wouldn’t bleat about that but bang on about Winnie.

  3. Adrian 3

    So what’s happened to this BIG story about Banks or Brash and the meth investigation?

    • uke 3.1

      What big story are you talking about?

    • Anne 3.2

      Yep. I’m wondering about that one too Adrian. I think it is to do with… a drug investigation… a p lab… and a politician called John Banks who has been running an anti-drug campaign for years. The key word is “hypocrisy”.

      So we have two police investigations we know of, where the police are being used (I assume willingly) in an effort to withhold information from the public that would do a lot of damage to the re-election chances of the National and ACT parties.

      My estimation of the police has plummeted to an unprecedented level.

    • Lanthanide 3.3

      Seems like The Sprout was teasing about the knowledge of the story but didn’t have the details or inclination to ‘leak’ it themselves.

      • Salsy 3.3.1

        Fuck how disgraceful… There is going to be riots when people get hold of all the info held back from them during this election… And just now on the news – the ACT ballot papers seem to be promoting National and ACT. How fast we have become a banana republic..

  4. Bored 4

    From the Telegraph this morning:

    The FTSE 100 has fallen for eight consecutive days, shedding £104 billion from the value of the UK’s most valuable companies, as a disastrous auction of German 10-year bonds ignites contagion fears…

    Wonder how much of Shonkeys portfolio looks risky? Does he really want to win an election? Could explain the missing Mr Niceguy persona.

    • John Key looking sheepish as people stare and point while he waits for is unemployment benefit interview.

      • Vicky32 4.1.1

        “John Key looking sheepish as people stare and point while he waits for is unemployment benefit interview.”

        Oh how wonderful that would be! (I had mine today, for my “re-application”, and discovered that they’ve changed the rules again (within the last 3-6 months, the WINZ woman said). It’s now a 3 stage process, with a week between each stage. That would be terrible for people who were starving… Luckily, I have saved the $$ I earned during the past 6 weeks…

        If John Key ended up living here, in a boarding house maybe, and I spotted him at our ‘local’.. what a glorious mental picture!

    • AAMC 4.2

      This is how Rounini framed it succinctly on twitter…

      “EZ in recession & even core sov bond markets seized; US investment & consumption down in Oct; China bus conditions at 32mt low.Perfect Storm”

  5. freedom 5

    Don Brash on RNZ trying to present himself as representing the left. Hilarious

  6. aerobubble 6

    Key is worried latte loving NZ will fall
    apart when he fails to get re-elected.

    Russia invasion plan uncovered, sell
    our assets, banks to Australians so they
    aren’t captured! Its the sensible thing to do.

    Govt spending needs to come down, because the
    private debt problem is so huge that shrinking
    government debt will have some effect. Ding-Don,
    it took Key three years to run it up, and
    both parties say they will drop it back in no time,
    so no wonder Key was downgraded when Don
    says its a government debt problem.

    Shit in shit out, NZ economy fails because
    the right claim to competence on the economy
    is never questioned by the media.

  7. aerobubble 7

    As a rule reporters place expensive microphones when politicians give speaches, and politicians and their handlers have a duty surely to return said property. As anyone who sits down in a cafe, the cleanliness, a clear empty table is a sign of a well run establishment. So reasonably, the PM would have known microphones were there, that he would be giving further speaches ‘after the chat’, and that reasonably any left over baggage remaining on the table should have been removed by him or his staff (if they also recognized the claim of privacy). The fact that the Police have been called, chills press freedom and is unjustice in my opinion. If Key is caught on camera looking at the package then he made a decision to not have it removed, that was consent in my opinion, as he would have been all to aware of the many miriad of packages left in his path (like background recorders to help the technicians to clean up the audio shit).

  8. ianmac 8

    John Key was interviewed by Katherine on 9 to noon Yesterday. He seldom answered questions and rambled and hummed and hawed a lot. He is supposed to be the PM and have answers ready!
    Phil Goff was interviewed by Katherine on 9 to noon today. He answered every question and placed hits on Key/National. He covered a lot of ground and packed in a huge amount of information. Most has been heard before but that is the nature of interviews at this time.

  9. Herodotus 9

    How come Name and mail have to be reentered for each comment?

    • freedom 9.1

      they said the other day if you log in, it’s all good, and it is!

      • herodotus 9.1.1

        Thanks for, greatly appreciated 😎
        and DTB nice to hear that there is an extreme load given what is at risk in a few days time. Best that people tick from an informed base.

    • Draco T Bastard 9.2

      Lynn had to turn off a couple of features so that the server could handle the present load. That was one of them.

  10. The Voice of Reason 10

    I’ve asked that question as well, H. Apparently there is an issue somewhere, but I assume LP is a bit busy helping score the greatest upset in NZ political history to fix it. That’s fine by me!

  11. Here is an interview I did with US War veteran and ex banker and senior editor of Veterans today Gordon Duff thanks to Vinny Eastwood, Auckland internet radio host:


    • seeker 11.1

      Thanks for doing this Travellerev. Bit of a coup I would say-congrats. Couldn’t hear the recording as my head phones just broke,blast, but I could see the value of your questioning from that one comment Gordon D. emailed you regarding “his tasking”, which sounds scarily ‘evil’.
      So want the truth to come out about Key. I loathe lies.

  12. On Election day are you allowed to blog or post on blogs about the election? or does that break some sort of electoral law.

    • higherstandard 13.1

      Unfortunately not, the country has gone full retard as it often does around elections.

      • Carol 13.1.1

        An interesting thing about the weather, we just need to look out the window to see what it’s like. In contrast, we have no idea about how many people are voting on election day, and what way they are voting.

    • Draco T Bastard 13.2

      You can mention the weather but you can’t do so in relation to the election. You also cannot tweet about the election. Specifically, you can’t tweet in such a way as to look like you may be trying to influence the way anyone votes. I think blogs may be exempt but I can’t recall precisely – I suggest erring on the side of caution.

      And that article is a load of bollocks. Report the weather and it’s forecast and then leave it to people to make up their own minds about when they go to the voting booth. They don’t need a weatherperson telling them.

      • Lanthanide 13.2.1

        You’re allowed to encourage people to vote, as long as it’s done in a non partisan way.

        So it’s acceptable to say “all that sunny weather out there should help get people out to vote!”. But you’re not allowed to say “all that terrible rainy weather out there will be stopping people from voting”.

  13. insider 14

    With the obsession about lies on here I thought you may be interested in another big lie – one from Phil Goff when he says that he said he knows of no other developed country that has GST on healthy food/fresh food and vegetables.

    Well he must be lying becasue he’s obviously looked at the issue and missed the fact that plenty of countries tax food. Japan, one of our biggest trading partners and last time I looked a reasonably developed country, is like us in taxing food at the standard VAT rate.

    Many do so at a reduced rate but they still tax it. http://www.worldtaxpayers.org/stat_vat.htm. only five countries -Australia, Canada, Mexico, Ireland, and the United Kingdom – apply a zero rate to certain food items.

    • Draco T Bastard 14.1

      If he didn’t actually know then it’s not a lie. Of course, he probably should have known and WTF is it about NZ that we constantly refer our decisions to what other countries do?

      • insider 14.1.1

        Just judging Goff by the low standard you and many other Standardistas have applied to Key. I wouldn’t go so far as saying his inability to accept he might be wrong on issues is a sign of sociopathy though.

        Agreed on your latter point though. One of my big bugbears: ‘what will it do to our reputation?’ Answer: Sweet FA.

    • happynz 14.2

      insider writes

      only five countries -Australia, Canada, Mexico, Ireland, and the United Kingdom – apply a zero rate to certain food items.

      Your worldtaxpayers site conveniently left out several states in the USA. California does not add on sales tax on many food items that a consumer purchases at a market.

      Care to retract, insider?

      • insider 14.2.1

        California is not a country last time I looked, happy. Goff talked about countries, I listed countries, you went off on a tangent.

    • Hammer 14.3

      Totally correct “insider”
      Just another example of Mr Goff ignoring the facts, and preferring a faulty [Towers?] sound-bite.

      One has to wonder, is he fed this rubbish, or does he dream it up all on his own?
      Either way, another fail.
      Also a fail by MsM who seem assume their man is always right.

      Certainly shades of Winstone, don’t let the facts get in the way of a good sound bite.

      Good to hear Sean Plunkett take it to him this morning re Police intakes;
      hopefully these false-hoods will lead the TV News at 6:00.
      Another own goal by Labour.

      This is proving to be an enjoyable election to-date; keep up the good work Labour.

    • rosy 14.4

      Insider, from the debate link you quoted that Phil said…
      “no other developed country in the world that I know of has a GST on healthy food like that”

      From your own link (pre- the NZ 15% GST rate) it appears Phil is right – other countries don’t tax healthy food “like that”… i.e. as NZ does at the standard rate of 15% GST. Japan, for example taxes food at the full rate, but that rate is only 5%. Other countries that have higher GST on food than we do tax food at less than the usual rate.

      So yeah other developed countries don’t tax healthy food as NZ does, at the standard rate, unless the standard rate is less than 15%. In the context of a debate it’s pretty hard to create a lie out of that statement.

      BTW I find it interesting that our ‘pure’ GST system is the only one that lists an exemption for financial services. The neo-lib agenda-pushers have a lot to answer for.

  14. randal 15

    if the weather is piss poor then its nationals fault.
    vote labour.

  15. Draco T Bastard 16

    This is the type of shit that keeps us from making rational decisions about the economy:-

    It’s blatantly obvious that rail is dead in the water. Billions and billions of dollars have been thrown at it over the years in this country and it’s still on he slippery slope to oblivion.

    It’s a big, long, rant that’s not based in any sort of logic, goes against the facts and some people actually agree with him. Thankfully more seem to be disagreeing with him.

    I posted two comments but only one got past the moderators. The one linking to this post didn’t make it.

    • Draco T Bastard 16.1

      The one linking to this post didn’t make it.

      Ok, that post is now through. It just took few hours longer.

      [lprent: Depends when one of us has a look at the queue. I suspect that I’m the same as the others. Queue checking happens when we have a break in our work. ]

      • Draco T Bastard 16.1.1

        Wasn’t talking about The Standard but the NZH. My second comment had got through the moderators before my first one (by several hours in fact) and so I had assumed that it had been binned. My reply to my comment was to acknowledge that it had now gone through.

    • Tibbie 16.2

      This is way more helpful than anything else I’ve looked at.

  16. The Voice of Reason 17

    Labour’s closing address. Get it on your networks, people!

    • ianmac 17.1

      Yes. Watched it VOR. Brilliant. On Facebook from lunchtime. Friday night TV.
      Friendly yet full of past and future. Technically excellent production.

    • just saying 17.2

      That’s a good ad. Not voting Labour myself, but I think many to my right (and that’s almost everyone unfortunately), would be given pause to think if they were to watch it right through.
      Why did they leave this calibre advertising until the bitter end?

  17. Afewknowthetruth 18

    As I have pointed out many times, with what is on the horizon and about to hit in a matter of months (maybe weeks) whoever DOESN’T get the poisoned chalice will probably be happy.

    ‘The following are 17 quotes about the coming global financial collapse that will make your hair stand up….

    #1 Credit Suisse’s Fixed Income Research unit: “We seem to have entered the last days of the euro as we currently know it. That doesn’t make a break-up very likely, but it does mean some extraordinary things will almost certainly need to happen – probably by mid-January – to prevent the progressive closure of all the euro zone sovereign bond markets, potentially accompanied by escalating runs on even the strongest banks.”

    #2 Willem Buiter, chief economist at Citigroup: “Time is running out fast. I think we have maybe a few months — it could be weeks, it could be days — before there is a material risk of a fundamentally unnecessary default by a country like Spain or Italy which would be a financial catastrophe dragging the European banking system and North America with it.”

    #3 Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank: “If you don’t think Merkel’s tone will change then our investment advice is to dig a hole in the ground and hide.”

    #4 David Rosenberg, a senior economist at Gluskin Sheff in Toronto: “Lenders are finding it difficult to finance their day-to-day operations with short-term funding. This is a lot like 2008 but with more twists.”

    #5 Christian Stracke, the head of credit research for Pimco: “This is just a repeat of what we saw in 2008, when everyone wanted to see toxic assets off the banks’ balance sheets”

    #6 Paul Krugman of the New York Times: “At this point I’d guess soaring rates on Italian debt leading to a gigantic bank run, both because of solvency fears about Italian banks given a default and because of fear that Italy will end up leaving the euro. This then leads to emergency bank closing, and once that happens, a decision to drop the euro and install the new lira. Next stop, France.”

    #7 Paul Hickey of Bespoke Investment Group: “More and more, we are hearing anecdotal comments from individual and professionals that this is the most difficult environment they have ever experienced as the market is like a fish flopping around after being taken out of the water.”

    #8 Bob Janjuah of Nomura International: “Germany appears to be adamant that full political and fiscal integration over the next decade (nothing substantive will happen over the short term, in my view) is the only option, and ECB monetisation is no longer possible. I really think it is that clear and simple. And if I am wrong, and the ECB does a U-turn and agrees to unlimited monetisation, I will simply wait for the inevitable knee-jerk rally to fade before reloading my short risk positions. Even if Germany and the ECB somehow agree to unlimited monetisation I believe it will do nothing to fix the insolvency and lack of growth in the eurozone. It will just result in a major destruction of the ECB‟s balance sheet which will force an ECB recap. At that point, I think Germany and its northern partners would walk away. Markets always want short, sharp, simple solutions.”

    #9 Dan Akerson, CEO of General Motors: “The ’08 recession, which was a credit bubble that manifested itself through primarily the real estate market, that was a serious stress….This is much more serious.”

    #10 Francesco Garzarelli of Goldman Sachs: “Pressures on Euro area sovereign bond markets have progressively intensified and spread like a wildfire.”

    #11 Jim Rogers: “In 2002 it was bad, in 2008 it was worse and 2012 or 2013 is going to be worse still – be careful”

    #12 Dr. Pippa Malmgren, the President and founder of Principalis Asset Management who once worked in the White House as an adviser to President Bush: “Market forces are increasingly determining what the options are and foreclosing on options policymakers thought they had. One option which is now under discussion involves permitting a country to temporarily leave the Euro, return to its native currency, devalue, commit to returning to the Euro at a better debt to GDP ratio, a better exchange rate and a better growth trajectory and yet not sacrifice its EU membership. I would like to say for the record that this is precisely the thought process that I expected to evolve,but when I proposed this possibility back in 2009, and again in September 2010, I had a 100% response from clients and others that this was “impossible” and many felt it was “ridiculous”. They may be right but this is the current state of the discussion. The Handelsblatt in Germany has reported this conversation, but wrongly assumes that the country that will exit is Germany. I think that Germany will have to exit if the Southern European states do not. Germany’s preference is to stay in the Euro and have the others drop out. The problem has been the Germans could not convince the others to walk away. But, now, market pressures are forcing someone to leave. Germany is pushing for that someone to be Italy. They hope that this would be a one off exception, not to be repeated by any other country. Obviously, though, if Italy leaves the Euro and reverts to Lira then the markets will immediately and forcefully attack Spain, Portugal and even whatever is left of the already savaged Greeks. These countries will not be able to compete against a devalued Greece or Italy when it come to tourism or even infrastructure. But, the principal target will be France. The three largest French banks have roughly 450 billion Euros of exposure to Italian debt. So, further sovereign defaults are certainly inevitable, but that is true under any scenario. Growth and austerity will not do the trick, as ZeroHedge rightly points out. Ultimately, I will not be at all surprised to see Europe’s banking system shut for days while the losses and payments issues are worked out. People forget that the term “bank holiday” was invented in the 1930’s when the banks were shut for exactly the same reason.”

    #13 Daniel Clifton, a policy strategist with Strategas Research Partners on the potential for more downgrades of U.S. debt: “We would expect further downgrades, a first downgrade from Moody’s and Fitch and possibly a second downgrade from S&P.”

    #14 Warren Buffett on the problems in the eurozone: “The system as presently designed has revealed a major flaw. And that flaw won’t be corrected just by words. Europe will either have to come closer together or there will have to be some other rearrangement because this system is not working”

    #15 David Kostin, equity strategist for Goldman Sachs: “The wide range of possible outcomes on both the super committee process and the unstable political economy in Europe drives our view that investors should assume the worst while hoping for the best.”

    #16 Mark Mobius, the head of the emerging markets desk at Templeton Asset Management: “There is definitely going to be another financial crisis around the corner”

    #17 Gerald Celente, founder of The Trends Research Institute: “The whole system is going down. Pull your money out your Fidelity account, your Scwhab accout, and your ETFs.”


    Assuming the polls are not rigged, NZers will get the quality of non-leadership they ask for. And will pay the price.

    [lprent: And that looks like nothing to do with the post you dumped it into. Moved to OpenMike. Don’t make a habit of this. Eventually I’ll just trash and ban. ]

    • rain33 18.1

      I completely agree and had a similar conversation with my father only the other night. The “poisoned chalice” was exactly the conclusion we both came to. Thanks for your post, puts it all nicely (all-be-it scarily) into perspective.

      • Bored 18.1.1

        Funny thing with Cassandras like AFKTT and myself is that we don’t always agree on the detail but pick the trends. Unlike yourself and your father most people are too frightened by what is coming down the track so they go into denial and ignore it. And vote to stay at the party.

        This years election is a poison chalice big time, given we have a government (and a large chunk of the opposition) whose world view does not include:
        1. Climate change.
        2. Peak oil.
        3. The great financial contagion that will make the Great Depression look like childs play.
        4. The creeping corporatisation of the world that will result in a “New Order” reminiscent of a previous going by the same name.

        I am going to vote BUT I suspect that within my lifetime that I will be voting for a very different set up that will replace the current (whose credibility and authority is questionable now and getting worse).

        Good luck Saturday

        • Draco T Bastard

          I will be voting for a very different set up that will replace the current (whose credibility and authority is questionable now and getting worse).

          I’m hoping for online voting with policies decided by referendum, resource use decided by vote and the total eradication of money.

    • Ianmac 18.2

      Maybe the oncoming disaster is the reason that Key is so fearful and sullen?

  18. gingercrush 19

    Prediction time:

    National 51.5%
    Labour 27%
    Greens 9%
    NZ First 4.4%
    Act 2.6%
    Maori 2.5%
    Mana 1%
    Conservatives 1%
    Other 1%

    Probably have the Maori party a bit high.


    Possible swing seats
    Auckland Central – Nikki Kaye retains
    Christchurch Central – Brendon Burns retains and higher vote than last time
    Epsom – Banks takes it. Just.
    Maungakiekie – Sam Paseta Lotu-Inga will take it far more easily than last time
    New Plymouth – Young increases his lead from 2008
    Ohariu – Dunne retains. National will take the seat in 2014
    Otaki – Guy increases his lead from 2008
    Palmerston North – Lees-Galloway narrowly loses his seat and likely to be out of parliament
    Waimakariri – Cosgrove will lose the seat. Expect to see Labour and Cosgrove do very well in Kaiapoi but Rangiora and Christchurch suburbs turning out for National and Kate Wilkinson
    Waitakere – Bennett retains
    Wellington Central – Robertson increases his support from 2008 and this electorate will have highest turnout.
    West-Coast Tasman – Auchinvole to just retain the seat and as I suspect O’Connor won’t contest again the seat should become more assured for National.

    Decreased support for National
    Bay of Plenty

    Increased support for National
    East Coast (expect this electorate to be a possible swing in 2014)
    East Coast Bays
    Hamilton East
    Hamilton West
    North Shore
    Taranaki-King Country

    Decreased support for Labour
    Dunedin North
    Dunedin South
    Hutt South
    Manukau East
    Mt Albert
    New Lynn
    Port Hills
    Rimutaka – Hipkins support will plummet but will retain

    Increased support for Labour
    Christchurch East
    Mangere (Taito Philip Field split some of the vote there in 2008)
    Mt Roskill

    Wigram and Maori electorates

    Wigram – Labour to take this easily. Am disappointed National has not even tried for this seat.
    Hauraki-Waikato – Mahuta increases her lead from 2008
    Ikaroa-Rawhiti – Horomia retains with slight increase.
    Tamaki Makaurau – Sharples wins again but the lead from 2008 is down considerably
    Te Tai Hauauru – Turia takes it again with lower support and this electorate reverts back to Labour in 2014
    Te Tai Tokerua – Harawira retains. Davis will be gone from parliament
    Te Tai Tonga – Labour will retake this seat from Katene
    Waiariki – Te Ururoa Flavell just retains this seat with what may be the smallest lead in any electorate.

    • Jackal 19.1

      Your figures aren’t consistent gingercrush.

    • Ben 19.2

      “Ohariu – Dunne retains. National will take the seat in 2014”

      What’s that based on? The idea that UF voters will all choose to vote National next election?

      Dunne only beat Chauvel by 1,006 votes in 2008 (down from a majority of 7,702 in 2005). It’s not going to take much of a swing Labour’s way to collect the seat, especially if those who voted for Dunne previously choose to vote National instead – that would likely leave room for Chauvel to slip through.

      My fingers are crossed this happens this year, though. Not in 2014. We can live without another three years of Dunne blocking meaningful law reform with regard to the War On Drugs.

      EDIT: Figures were wrong.

      • Lanthanide 19.2.1

        “My fingers are crossed this happens this year, though. Not in 2014. We can live without another three years of Dunne blocking meaningful law reform with regard to the War On Drugs.”

        Even without National at the helm and UF gone-burgers, I don’t think there’s going to be sufficient apetite in parliament to make much progress on drugs.

    • Brett Dale 19.3

      National 51%
      Labour 27%
      Greens 9%
      Maori 7%
      NZfirst 3%
      Act 1.5%
      United 1 %
      Mana .25%
      Others .25%

      • Lanthanide 19.3.1

        Maori 7% and Mana 0.25%? You’re dreaming.

        • Sookie

          Meh, I’ll have a go to counter the utter bullshit above:

          Nats 46%
          Labour 34%
          Greens 10%
          Winston First 5%, just
          United Future Gone
          Act Gone
          Conservatives 3%
          Mana 2%
          Maori 2%

          • brett Dale


            Why the Maori party so low?

            • Draco T Bastard

              Because that’s what they’re polling?

              • Draco:

                Yeash but she has Mana on the same, the Maori party will walk tasll and proud all over mana, because Mana is not really a party of Maori.

                Conservatives at 3%?? We dont have that manyGlenn Becks do we??

                • felix

                  Brett, the reason you’re confused is that everyone else is making predictions and you’re just saying what you’d like to see.

            • Sookie

              I think the polls are dodgy as they never count the undecided voters. And the Nats are getting quite shrill about votes being ‘crucial’ and bashing everyone in sight instead of being relaxed this week, so I expect they know something the TV poll munters don’t. And while I’m Greens all the way, some of their soft vote will go back to Aunty Labour on the day. Winston will get the pissed off grumpy git vote, there’s enough of those to get over the line. As for Maori, they’ll keep most of their seats but people see them as largely irrelevant for party vote, so 2% is about right.

        • brett Dale


          haha. Bloody aussies.

          Seriously, I think the maori party will do really well, people have a lot of respect for
          them. Apart from Hone their party list is just extreme leftists, and I mean extreme, Skyes makes Bradford and Minto look like Bill Oreilly.

  19. Lucy 20

    As a young New Zealander I think that the most important thing we can be doing this election is to vote for a zero carbon future.

    Go to http://www.electwho.org.nz to find out what our politicians think about the number one issue that will affect our future.

    Nga mihi nui


  20. Tiger Mountain 21

    The obsequious gargoyle Farrar currently on RNZ is a travesty of ‘balance’ and more importantly an illustration of tory media swamping. As is his presence at the Herald and Stuff, fer crissakes he already has blogs and research outlets. What next a mandatory ‘free’ 24hr feed to each household?

    It was not coincidence that Bomber Bradbury was expunged before the election.

  21. The Voice of Reason 22

    Go Whangaz! The Keyster abandoned his planned rally in Whanganui this arvo because he didn’t get enough arselicking from the locals. 300 turned up to Majestic square to tell him to piss off and he took the hint.


  22. Draco T Bastard 23

    How it should be done

    Meanwhile, in the Netherlands, they’re showing us how it ought to be done. Their government is currently considering whether to join the Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement, the US-driven treaty designed to inflict American-style intellectual property laws (such as the hated s92A) on the rest of the world. But to do so, they require the permission of their Parliament. Which has just said that it will not even consider the matter unless all negotiation texts and advice on them are published:

    Good on the Netherlands government for doing this, passing policy that hasn’t been seen, never mind vetted, by the populace is undemocratic and needs to be expunged from our political system. Now, will government/parliament do the same or will it roll over and do what the US tells them to?

  23. randal 24

    russell norman just said on radio new zealand that john key asked mathew hooton if he would google how much he would get for selling the states assets.

  24. kriswgtn 25

    Just seen the news Tv1 and some old dude had a go @ Key about answering the question.and showing some respect,.
    Key did a runner

    Considering how many people would have been watching it

    Apparently in Pram (Parapauaumu) he also copped it as well

    Wanaganui – http://tvnz.co.nz/election-2011/key-heckled-goff-pressured-in-final-push-4568308

    Key then twitted tweeted whatever–

    He tweeted this afternoon that he arrived to a “warm welcome” in Bulls and Wanganui.


    stop LYING

    nothing worse than a liar Key

    people have wizened up to you

  25. freedom 26

    good kiwi hiphop for those who have a short memory of the last forty years

    dedicated to gosman 🙂
    speak truth to power and you will be stronger for it

  26. Georgecom 28

    Here is my rough prediction for Saturday.

    The Smile and Wave party won’t have enough party vote to rule alone.
    % of party vote mid to high 40%
    The Greens and Labour combined will sit in the mid 40s%.
    Labour low 30s% and Greens low teens.

    Banks loses Epsom and ACT exits parliament
    Dunne loses Ohariu and exits parliament

    Maori Party gets 2 to 3 MPs
    Mana Party gets 2 to 3 MPs.

    Winston back or close to being back.

    Something like perhaps:

    Smile and Wave 46%
    Labour 32%
    Greens 12%
    Winston First 4%
    Maori 2%
    Mana 2%
    ACT 1% (won’t matter as exited from parliament)
    Conservatives 1%

  27. Something weird has happened with Epsom’s voting papers. Apparently ACT’s and National’s voting areas are more prominent. I suspect this will get a lot more attention. New Zealand’s electoral system needs to be scrupulously fair.

    • And here it is …


      I do not believe it. ACT and National get the benefit of an empty line after their party vote line. Their names are clearer and easier to ascertain and the extra space suggests that they are somehow better.

      Perhaps they did not want to rub shoulders with the others and insisted on having more space.

      But this is appalling. The form gives them an advantage.

      What is going on?

      • mickysavage 29.1.1

        I will calm down now. It is because of section 150 of the Electoral Act 1993. It is all Penny Bright and Matthew Goode’s fault ; )

      • Salsy 29.1.2

        This is beyond appaling, its utterly terrible, criminal and unjust. What in the fuck is going on??

        • mickysavage

          Mea culpa Salsy. Someone hand me a tinfoil hat please …

          • Herodotus

            Easily proven if this is an anomaly review past voting papers from various electorates and see if this is consistent if it is then accept that this is merely a coincidence, and if so then file it under yet another example of poor reporting by the media, and not a media organisation looking for retribution for the tea and scone episode.

      • freedom 29.1.3

        None of that explanation offered by the very sincere official explains the need for selectively spaced variances in the ballot.

        I watched his explanantion half a dozen times. I am confident we all understand that the way the list is presented on the ballot has random elements and we are willing to submit to the whimsy of chaos, freely giving benefit of the doubt as to how the final order eventuated.
        I am sure that is not in dispute by anyone.

        Why there are physical spaces only under the two Parties in question, has not been answered.

        • Chris

          Yes it has? The candidates are listed in alphabetical order on the right. The box for the party then goes next to the candidate standing in that seat.

          If the independents running (Penny Bright and Matthew Goode) had parties they would be listed in those gaps. Every other candidate has a party hence no other gaps.

          Every ballot in the country is laid out in exactly the same way.

  28. Bored 30

    I just had a phone call from that fucker Key…automated message. Invading my privacy. Anybody know his number? I need to return the call.

    • Carol 30.1

      I had an unexpected landline call and was afraid it was Jonkey, so I didn’t get up to answer.

    • Funny I had one today from Tim Groser. He was claiming credit for the New Lynn Train upgrade which is a bit of a hoot. David Cunliffe did all of the work on this. I hope Groser is paying for each call …

    • Bill 30.3

      I got one of them this evening. Initially I thought somebody was taking the piss. Initial reaction was merely confirmed.

      • freedom 30.3.1

        i heard there was also a bunch of areas called after the debate , who is paying for all this ?
        Tel-tech can be pricey to run short term projects on

        Is the Electoral Commission going to have a busy week ahead?

    • joe90 30.4

      Got a Key robocall earlier this evening.

  29. Maori party will do way better than people think, I think.

    • gingercrush 31.1

      Maybe. But 7%. LOL.

      A question for left-wing/Labour voters. Do you think Labour has focused too much on asset sales at the expense of Labour’s other policies?

  30. RedBaron 32

    Predictions please. Someone asked me at work how best to split their votes tactically for labour, left, greens in Te tai Tonga to get the maximum impact. Any ideas?

    • gingercrush 32.1

      They should give their electorate vote to the Labour candidate as the Labour candidate is in a fight with Rahui Katene for the seat. The party vote could be given to either the Greens or Labour depending which party they prefer. I don’t think it matters which of them gets given the vote.

      They could vote the Mana party. With enough votes they may well bring in 1-2 other MPs beside Hone Harawira but there is a risk that Mana don’t get enough party votes for another MP and thus you could technically find the vote given to the National party. As wasted votes are given to those parties that have made it to parliament and distributed percentage wise.

  31. Carol 33

    There was a very good report on Checkpoint this evening about the abuse of urgency by the government.

    Researchers say the public should be worried about how often politicians push through legislation under urgency with no good reason. (6′02″)

    It was based on research conducted looking at use of urgency from FPP days to present (1987-2010). Urgency was used a lot under FPP, but declined between 1999-2008, and it was thought that MMP was a system that worked against such abuse. But since 2008 it has been used as much, if not more than FPP days.

    Prof Elizabeth McLeay said that she had recommended changes to standing orders to prevent such abuses, but only some of the recommendatons are being implemented in the next term.


  32. logie97 34

    The 2008 election campaign had NACT billboards and politicians decrying the volume of Kiwis crossing the ditch and the likes of Espiner hammered Labour over it.

    Move forward to this evening on Jim-I’m-a-close-friend-of-The-Penguin-and-the-Right-Mora. Who did he have on? None other than Farrar and what were Farrar and Mora talking about? The natural movement of people out of NZ. And then to rub salt in, Farrar was given a couple of minutes at the end of the programme to explain his, and the PM’s, preference for voting systems and dissing MMP.

  33. Dv 35

    The November 22-23 survey finds parties with the following Definite Voter party vote shares:
     Latest horizon poll

    ACT New Zealand
    Conservative Party of New Zealand
    Green Party
    Labour Party
    Mana Party
    Maori Party
    National Party
    New Zealand First Party
    United Future
    Other party
    Choose not to vote
    Don’t Know

  34. joe90 36

    The Miami Model, a frightening video detailing the paramilitary style of policing on display at Occupy sites across the globe.

  35. joe90 37

    Ahdaf Soueif in Cairo: ‘By early evening it was clear that this was Revolution II’

    “Eat a good breakfast. Take a rucksack with a gas mask and swimming goggles. Write your name on your arm. Write your details into a message on your mobile. And go to the Square.” The tweet appeared after three of the (at least) 38 people killed in the streets of Egypt over the last three days proved impossible to identify. It was picked up by the well-respected Egyptian daily al-Shorouk and published to #Tahrirsupplies – the hashtag that collates what you can bring in to the square if you want to help.

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