I’d like to initiate some discussion over the idea of ‘flattening the curve’, herd immunity, and the immediate future of New Zealand.
It seems from what I’ve read, that flattening the curve really entails the same large number of casualties spread over a longer period of time so our hospitals can cope. And herd immunity doesn’t kick in until 70 – 80% of the population has had the disease and recovered (or not).
Either way, that future is dire for this country.
But what if the government has, in fact, acted quickly enough, aided by our island geographical location and we do manage to suppress Covid-19 in the next month?
It will still be raging in other parts of the globe – which would mean life could, more or less, return to ‘normal’ in NZ (minus a tourist industry) but we would still have to be shut off from the rest of the world – until a vaccine can give us that immunity.
A vaccine is 12 months to 18 months away – so we should be thinking about how we will cope with at least a year without real contact with the rest of the world.
Or will we pat ourselves on our collective backs after a month, open up our borders so we can return to life before the pandemic, and probably experience a second wave of Covid-19?
Thoughts?
NB – always assuming there is an ‘economy’ in which to be ‘normal.’
Flattening the curve results in more or less the same number of infections spread over a longer period (assuming no vaccine or other preventative becomes available), but reduces the number of casualties and long-term disabilities because the healthcare system is not so badly overwhelmed and can provide comprehensive care to more of the victims. And buys time to develop vaccines, develop therapies that reduce the severity of the disease, and even just properly test potential therapies that have been hyped on the basis of limited sketchy anecdotes.
Even without re-opening our borders early (please god, don't), the risks from relaxing self-isolation and physical distancing prematurely are severe.
Flattening the curve results in more or less the same number of infections spread over a longer period
That's the case for a strategy of "social distancing". But with a "shelter in place" strategy (the one rolling out as form today) the total number of infections can be hugely reduced. Hugely…
I predict that NZ will handle this better than most. [Side note: I also predict that although it is scientifically improbable the virus itself will be gone from the world in a matter of months, but there will be so many other issues it will barely be noted]
There will be a drive towards internal tourism, and possibly a temporary reallocation of staff to other industries…maybe working to solve our housing crisis takes priority over welcoming visitors? That would be good to see.
Farming – focus will shift on how to preserve large amounts of food with an eye to possible export later, but it could be used for the domestic population (we are about to see crazy things happening with the food chain overseas that will promote this idea).
Int Freight – this will be kept in quarantine for weeks rather than moving it asap.
Antibiotics – these may be produced here in NZ due to ongoing global instability.
Your community – communities move to be as self sustaining as possible, with work either from home or a short walk away, sharing of backyards for gardens, looking after each other. Essentially the crisis or as per my prediction above many of them drive people in this direction naturally.
"There will be a drive towards internal tourism, and possibly a temporary reallocation of staff to other industries"
Permanent reallocation I think. We need to future proof our economy, make it more diverse and less reliant on vulnerable industries (tourism was already vulnerable because of CC but few wanted to talk about it). There are lots of things needing to be done that we can create jobs around (many local food businesses, ecological restoration, climate mitigation, people centred support)
I'd like to see NZers go back to having holidays rather than artificially creating a tourism industry that needs people to be moving around a lot to sustain itself. There is a huge opportunity here to rethink how we do things across many areas, and to create truly sustainable economies, rather than the top down ones we've been using.
Not sure about the eradication of the virus so quickly, but the rest of it would be a godsend. And I agree, once the benchmarks have been set people will start to follow them naturally.
Sorry rich pricks, but your days of fleecing other people for personal gain regardless of the consequences are hopefully numbered.
"flattening the curve really entails the same large number of casualties spread over a longer period of time so our hospitals can cope."
I think others have addressed this, but reiterating that flattening the curve saves lives (for a number of reasons).
Yes, I think it's reasonable to assume we won't be going back to BAU any time soon. I don't think ever, and I think we need to be thinking about how to transition into something we actually want. This is a really big opportunity for NZ and all humans.
It seems from what I’ve read, that flattening the curve really entails the same large number of casualties spread over a longer period of time so our hospitals can cope. And herd immunity doesn’t kick in until 70 – 80% of the population has had the disease and recovered (or not).
I placed a link up yesterday on that front. Here it is again. (Hit any state in the map, ignore the sign up box, and scroll up for the modeling)
Essentially then, there is one strategy that "flattens the curve" and it involves a 70% infection rate and many deaths – ie, herd immunity.
Then there's the NZ response which, if everyone adhered to it, could mean a single digit infection rate.
Thing is (well, there are a couple of things), NZ might not have moved fast enough. The lock-down has that gaping supermarket hole (and others besides). People don't seem to understand the potential of a successful lock-down. I know that I didn't, and most people who've shared their understanding with me didn't – so there's the messaging coming from government.
Pretty sure that the NZ government is working on the premise of widespread transmission now. Hence shut down to flatten the curve so that our health system doesn't get overloaded. I think we're still in a good position to manage this, but there will be some shock with the first deaths and as people adjust to the realities (of covid and the social/work disruptions). We've come a long way in the past 2 weeks though.
Herd immunity as a strategy at this stage isn't about flattening the curve. It's about letting the curve peak now and sucking up the chaos, death and suffering this causes (eg the UK).
Long term herd immunity is a different issue, and I'm not sure we know yet how that will play out. There are factors like how fast the virus is mutating and how quickly humans develop varying levels of immunity to a new organism. Have you seen the graphs with the peaks and troughs as waves of covid move through a population? 70% for herd immunity still leaves 30% still to be exposed, and some of those people will be at risk.
Agreed that there are too many people that don't get it yet. It takes time for people to get their heads around it. After today this will change, because there will be much more social and state enforcement (people who aren't up to speed will have consequences).
Pretty sure that the NZ government is working on the premise of widespread transmission now.
A Shelter in Place strategy, like what the government is trying, is not a strategy that assumes widespread transmission. Thing is, I don't get the disconnect between the strategy and the messaging.
Plenty of places have managed to eradicate COVID 19 without 'achieving' herd immunity – Vietnam, China, S. Korea….
From what I can tell, they have achieved eradication via the very same Shelter in Place type strategies this government is trying.
I know a number of people who will likely die if they get infected. Until I understood the possible effect of the different strategies, I was assuming their chances of life simply diminished with time. Not so.
But if people continue to think the end goal is 'herd immunity', then many people likely won't adhere to the Shelter in Place strategy. Why would they, if they're going to get infected anyway, and there's a fair chance their own infection will be fairly mild?
Unless that site I linked is absolute tosh (and I really don't think that it is) then the government needs to up its messaging game immediately.
"A Shelter in Place strategy, like what the government is trying, is not a strategy that assumes widespread transmission. Thing is, I don't get the disconnect between the strategy and the messaging."
Our version of shut down presumes that 1) there is community transmission and 2) we need to contain that so that the hospital system doesn't get overloaded.
But, we can't stay in shut down forever, and I doubt we can manage it for the 12 – 18 months until we get a vaccine. And that vaccine will likely still be non-perfect ie community transmission will still happen. Just a lot slower.
By widespread community transmission I mean that at some point it will be in most places. I don't think we can stop that, but we can slow it, hence flattening the curve.
I don't mean we will end up like the US, Italy, Uk etc. Also, there's the ratio of infections to our health system capacity (I don't have a good sense of that yet).
Not sure what you mean by eradicate there. I don't think anyone is thinking eradication once it's in the community. South Korea is still getting new clusters afaik. Our shut down isn't like what China did, but they haven't reopened everything yet, so we will see. They're still getting infection from inbound travellers too.
Re messaging, I think the flatten the curve one is still the way to go. The basis of it is to keep our health system functioning (not just for covid but for anything), and to prevent unnecessary deaths. I'm sure more could be done on messaging too.
Are people in NZ talking about herd immunity as a strategy?
'Every' country has had community transmission. Some countries fell back on their experience with SARS and rolled out a version of NZ's current strategy. As a result, the likes of Vietnam are not getting new cases in the hundreds or in the thousands. (According to WHO figures, the total figure for Vietnam is 123 cases) Yes, inbound travelers are likely re-introducing the virus – causing smaller local flareups that get stomped on.
Social Distancing is akin to the herd immunity (non) strategy insofar as it only slows the final and inevitable arrival of 'herd immunity' levels of infection in the population
Shelter in Place is about the infection never reaching herd immunity levels. Shelter in Place, if adhered to, obviously also lessens the burden on health services (flattens the curve), and equally obviously does not rely on a vaccine becoming available.
Covid can be stamped out if it has no available vectors for spread – which is what Shelter in Place attempts to do and, it seems, can achieve.
Is it a "one hit" strategy? No. I'd be saying it's a "rinse and repeat" one – but with each repeat being in a more localised area since we'll be getting ahead of it instead of sitting back and "waiting to see" as many"western" countries have done, and Asian countries didn't.
edit – if we ‘blow’ this current strategy, we will most assuredly wind up exactly like the UK, Europe and N America btw
Flattening the curve is precisely to prevent us becoming like UK, Europe and the US. UK, Italy, and the US fucked up, we haven't (thus far).
Reading what McFlock says before, Shelter in Place in NZ seems to have two aims. One is to try and remove all community transmission. Two is to flatten the curve if we can't do that. The former may or may not be possible.
If we do remove all community transmission, then there would be a very big change to how we live our lives in relation to the rest of the world (not a bad thing, needed to happen, but still very big change).
I'm not sure that the stomping it out from a place that has lots of community transmission is possible. Vietnam looks more like NZ in terms of what stage it is at (small number of cases, doesn't know yet what is going to happen). It hasn't had a large outbreak and then contained it.
In terms of countries that have had large outbreaks and then used localised shut downs to contain it, I'm thinking that this is more about the peaks and troughs thing until most people have been exposed, but there are so many variables that we just don't know yet. Hard to imagine Asia becoming covid free entirely, but will be interested to see how knowledge and theory develop around this.
Vietnam didn't have the large outbreak, because Vietnam launched effective strategies right off the bat. So did other places. The NZ response may or may not have been timely enough. We’ll see.
It's a no brainer that Shelter in Place "flatten the curve", but the idea is also to keep infection levels well below what they they would be with "social distancing'' measures that result, eventually, in levels of infection of 70% or so (ie, whatever the herd immunity level may be for COVID)
If the Shelter in Place strategy falls over, then the curve will likely still be flattened, but health services will probably be overwhelmed at some point – ie, the situation will begin to resemble a "social distance" scenario.
Herd immunity only works if reinfection is not a significant probability. This might be in doubt.
Physical distancing and handwashing is essentially lowering the R0 of an infectious disease: rather than each contagious person infecting 10 people, they might only infect 3. So while the cycle between catching it and infecting others takes the same amount of time, it doesn't snowball so much and gives contact tracers time to have an effect.
I am not privy to the decision-making of the powers that be, but it's worth noting that we have only 4 cases where community transmission is likely, the rest have direct links to overseas travel. It is the latter that is dramatically increasing. So I suspect level 4 is to eliminate the nascent community transmission while we can, and also to lower the threat from the returning NZers. But I don't think it's because loads of NZers are about to be infected out of the blue (well, depending on how closely they queued for bogroll and ammunition).
thanks, I had been assuming it was out there but we hadn't caught up with the testing yet and the lag between exposure and active illness. Do you mean that we might actually eliminate community transmission altogether? What happens after that?
If we get really lucky and eliminate community transmission so we get through this with almost all of NZ avoiding exposure to the virus, but the rest of the world ends up more or less going the herd exposure and subsequent immunity route, that's going to have implications for our isolation. As in, we will need to stay very strongly isolated because we will always be vulnerable to an outbreak. Until there's a vaccine.
Yeah I was working off the report of the daily briefing.
"more were suspected" or whatever the wording was could be 2, could be 20. But I reckon we're still in with a chance of knocking it on the head, because we don't suddenly have clusters of 25 or thirty appearing out of the blue, meaning dozens of undetected carriers.
that's good news, in which case Bill's point about messaging may be right, although there's still no accounting for stupid and even the most perfect govt response can't control that.
I'm pretty cool with the messaging so far. Sheltering in place can't be anywhere close to 100%, but it changes the default from "I'll quickly do this" to "why are you out?". So next-level physical distancing, not complete solitude.
People are slowly learning to queue on the sticker on the floor, too.
(well, depending on how closely they queued for bogroll and ammunition).
Not to mention the "hordes" that shut down SH1 by 'mobbing' KFC and McDs the other day.
I suspect if the messaging had been strongly along the lines of "this might mean a 15% infection rate" instead of (it seems) allowing people to assume the virus was going to run it's course and infect most people one way or another, then maybe (just maybe) there would have fewer "devil may care" people at KFC and gun stores etc.
I think there are precipitously-diminishing returns in the efforts required to optimise messaging for people whose first instinct is to hoard toilet paper.
My most optimistic thought as we go into self isolation, which according to one poll, a massive 93% of us want, is that we halt the disease here. Possible because after two months in wuhan only one new case in the last week.
if we then keep our boarders closed and quarantine all kiwis coming back from overseas,gradually we will be able to come out of isolation and I have this hopeful idea that then maybe by spring we can all start holidaying in our own country. Places like Queenstown out of reach for many NZders now a possibility. Gradually this will help pick the economy up (holidaying in NZ rather than overseas travel just like N Z in thr sixties). We would have to stop kiwis travelling abroad though
Pharmaceutical disaster capitalism. Anyone wanna place bets on how many members of the nepotistic kakistocracy indulged in a little insider trading before this rort went through?
. And an aide to Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, who serves on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, sold off stock in companies including Delta Airlines in late January and later bought stock in Clorox, Inc., which makes bleach and sanitary wipes.
[…]
Other members stand to make money off companies working to combat the disease. Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Va.) purchased between $1,001 and $15,000 of stock in the pharmaceutical company AbbVie Inc., on Feb. 27, the day the company released a statement saying it had donated one of its antiviral drugs to China as an experimental option for treating the coronavirus and that it was exploring a research collaboration on potential treatment options
[…]
Scott Sloofman, a top communications aide in Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s office, purchased stock in a company that could wind up being instrumental in the fight against the coronavirus in late January: Moderna, Inc., which is now testing the first vaccine for the disease in Washington state.
[…]
Sarah Holmes, New Hampshire-based state director to New Hampshire Sen. Jeanne Shaheen and a longtime aide to the senator, sold between $1,001 and $15,000 worth of stock in Delta Airlines on Jan. 24, as lawmakers were beginning to be clued into the forthcoming crisis.
Holmes traded out two stocks a week later, on Jan. 29, then on Feb. 27 made two purchases that could prove advantageous in the weeks ahead: Holmes purchased between $15,001 and $50,000 of stock in each of two more companies, the pharmaceutical company Gilead, Inc. — which makes remdesivir, a drug that is currently being tested to treat coronavirus — and wipe manufacturer Clorox.
We don't have to look as far as the U$A for that behaviour.
We have similar vile types here
"The Warehouse's share price also rose by more than a third, before it was placed in a trading halt.
The company called for the halt while it sorted out the confusion about whether or not it will be able to carry on trading through the Covid-19 lock-down period."
Printed off a number of info sheets etc today and dropped them in the letterboxes of my elderly neighbours as some aren't that internet savvy. They were rapt.
When I spoke to them last night, they were all prepared, but they were scared.
Good idea. I was thinking that when we go into full shut down mode tomorrow we could have a post/thread for our equivalent of the Italians singing to each other. I'll chat to the other authors and see what can be organised.
I gotta admit, I've got a Darwinian view of that. I mean, taking medical advice from a dude that looks like a diseased oompa-loompa and looks directly into a solar eclipse … really?
In practical terms, decisions about lockdowns, banning mass gatherings etc are much more at state level than federal.
So far, it's generally been solidly Dem states that have been earlier and stronger actors in implementing control measures, while Repug states have been less active.
That university link reminds me of Ruth Dudley Edwards novel Murdering Americans, all about the antics of a profit-oriented university that teaches PC, and in that order.
The coronavirus survived for up to 17 days aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship, living far longer on surfaces than previous research has shown, according to new data published Monday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
2/ I have been struggling with Covid-19 for 14 days today. By far the worst virus I have ever endured despite being a healthy individual with strong lungs(no smoking/sport), living a healthy lifestyle and being young (least at risk demographic)
3/ Although the most severe symptoms(extreme fever) have eased, I am still struggling with serious fatigue and a residual cough that I can’t shake. Any physical activity like walking leaves me exhausted for hours.
Is Trade Me going to remain open to buy a heater or a radio?
I tried 10 places to buy a thermometer yesterday and I could not locate one. Chemists could not say when new stock would arrive. I tried other outlets as well.
Is it not essential for those working to have a thermometer at home or to have access to one at work?
Will ACC reviews still be held?
A case conference is different. I was pissed off as I had one full days notice by the mediator for the case conference which involved 122 pages. I did not attend. Also I tried a few big law firms to get a lawyer and no success.
Good questions. Have TM put up any advisories? Afaik couriers will be operational but I'm unclear if there will be limits on this.
Imo, thermometers this week should be prioritised for medical staff, then people with pre-existing conditions. Like other things, supplies will even out over time, but I'm guessing we don't have a thermometer for everyone in NZ that needs one. Unless pharma supply companies keep a stock for pandemic purposes. Again, the information about this should be more readily available as time goes on.
Re reviews and such, I'd leave them alone until things settle down. We may find that things settled into a post-chaotic pattern next week or so as people and systems adjust.
New Zealand Post is stopping all over the counter services from midnight tonight. Their mail and courier delivery will continue though.
You should be ok if you buy a thermometer from a large Trademe seller as they probably have a work around or a courier picks up all their orders without face to face contact.
A note from Trademe says that sales can continue for items under 25kg and buyers should use the built in courier service, though the delivery time might be longer.
We’ve had emails from Courier Post and Aramex (Fastway) in the last few days saying they will only be picking up from businesses providing essential services, and asking us to register as such.
With that in mind I’d say the chances of
TradeMe being online much longer are very slim. The potential for transmission would be too much for second hand goods and new would have to be from registered providers of essential services
Although Aramex New Zealand will continue to operate business as usual, we are now required to abide by this new set of guidelines by limiting collections to essential servicesonly until advised otherwise.
Treetop, I haven't got time right now to check the ACC links below for details re ACC reviews, but hope the links may help you. I note that while they are closing as ACC is not considered an essential service, you can still contact them with questions preferably by email.
With a case conference the mediator organises it and ACC and the client agree to a time. ACC did not contact me to agree to a time and date. Also the mediator is the person who organised the review date. Last week mediator co ordinator rang to say no face to face reviews and I asked for them to email the process. Also I have been waiting 3 weeks for ACC to tell me when they emailed the mediator about a case conference.
I know when the mediator got the documents.
I want to know when ACC first raised a case conference with the mediator?
ACC case worker did not keep proper records or allow me enough time. I told them that I want the case to go smoothly.
At some point my case will become public if not handled properly. Now is not the time for that.
I feel that urgent reform is required for historical sexual violation/rape in childhood. Any form of sexual assault also needs to be addressed.
Governor Phil Murphy said at a Tuesday afternoon news conference that the man got into a dispute with an employee of a Wegmans store sometime on Monday.
"He coughed on the woman and told her, after doing so, that he had coronavirus," Murphy said.
The man then refused to give police his name or driver's license for more than 40 minutes. It happened at the Wegmans on Route 9 in Manalapan.
The man, who was not identified, now faces charges of making a terroristic threat, harassment, and obstruction of justice.
"We will not take any non-compliant behavior," Murphy warned.
So, with my scratchy throat (on antibiotics) the GP said to self isolate and not interact with others.
I got an email from my local post office saying there is mail in my PO Box today. So, I guess I wait til next week til I can go and collect my mail? Should be OK under lock down rules?
The GP indicated I should be pretty OK to attend the GPS flu clinic next Tuesday for a flu shot. She booked me into a session for people who are well. They have other flu clinics reserved for sick people.
The emails are a very good service, and the PO sends me one whenever I receive mail into my PO Box.
Tend to agree, weka. I don't always collect PO Box mail the day I am notified. Others probably are now clearing the boxes less often. The main rule for PO Boxes is not to have too much mail in a box at any one time.
The GP asked me to stay away from other people on the outside chance I may have THE virus, and could pass it on to others. Even passing my key over to someone else could pass on said virus.
I think it's more likely I have strep throat, but the GP said, in phone consultation, she'd normally do a throat swab to check it is bacterial. But this is not the normal situation. She also said if I did happen to be THE virus, it was a mild dose and my underlying health is good. So she wasn't going to get me tested – but to notify them if my condition declines.
This is all to do with how under pressure GPs and the health system is right now. There's probably more people like me contacting them about their mild conditions.
Tucker's position is hardly suprising given that he has been the enthusiastic cheerleader for a system that ensures that millions go without health care or housing and are just left to flounder around on their own in the name of the economy.
The attention of all in USA is on a few people who apparently know about viruses and how to fight them, and have education and the background to underpin their pronouncements about the matter, for the people's understanding and assistance.
The elected pollies are probably part-time real estate agents. There are 535 or so all up in main body of pollies I think called the Congress.
This is the number that enables them to make a really good fist of messing everything up. Too many cooks …I think. And then there are all the workers who try to carry out the program that the cooks dream up.
<i>According to the Office of Personnel Management, as of December 2011, there were approximately 2.79 million civil servants employed by the U.S. government.</i>
<i>As of 2016, there are around 4,000 political appointment positions which an incoming administration needs to review, and fill or confirm, of which about 1,200 require Senate confirmation.</i>
My understanding is that if a review is not held within the 3 month time frame you have to restart the process. There is something about if it is the error of ACC with the time frame.
Even having access to scan documents for a review is an issue.
This is not a priority for me but I do not have a lot of energy for the ACC process in normal times, yet alone a crisis with an unknown outcome.
Sorry moderator this is out of sequence. Could you please put it in the right place.
[lprent: I’m the only person who could move comments within a post because I’m the only one who currently has database access. I don’t do it because it does nasty things to the numbering system. It can sometimes can screw up the entire hierarchical structure of the comments. Also it is a lot of work.
I wrote a routine to allow moderators to move entire parts of the commentary tree to OpenMike. That took me about about 3 days to do perfectly. If I did that at my usual company charge out rates then that would be a significiant amount of money. ]
Relates to TT's comment at 10. I expect that all ACC reviews etc have been/will be suspended over this period – probably through the urgent emergency legislation going through the House this afternoon.
I posted a couple of ACC Covid-19 links at 10.4 for TT but now see TT’s reply refers to historic sexual assault/rape. IIRC this has been an ongoing subject for TT here on TS for some years.
You are correct about the sexual offending having been raised by me.
There has been some progress. The main thing now is the date of injury. Recently a case in Invercargill which has similarities but a twist to mine as ACC has a contract with a DHB for counselling in 2001. I want to fit into the 1982-1992 legislation. The Invercargill case ACC has the discretion to back date more than 12 months.
You are covered from the date which you first recieve treatment for the injury being treated.
But the disclosure got missed on my file notes, not my error.
Also there are 3 lots of legislation I may come under.
Can't sorry. If you repost in the right place, then I can delete the duplicate (you might have to change it slightly as the system refuses duplicate comments).
Good to see Public Address is going to rev up again.
I think Russell Brown lives in Pt Chev. which was part of my youthful stomping ground and I have a relative there, so will be good to hear his reports on how things are going in that part of Auckland.
Finance Minister Grant Robertson also encouraged landlords and tenants to discuss how the mortgage holiday would work.
And it's not good enough for Renters United (bless them) to be in thrall of landlords and simply ask that they
and tenants should be having open conversations now about how they can work together. Whether that means landlords are helping out tenants, or reducing their rent – that would be really good.
Fucking hell, that is weak.
The point being that this stuff isn't uniform across the board and different tenants are going to have widely different problems with their landlords behaviour.
It's totally unacceptable for the Finance Minister and a renters’ advocacy group to palm off the problem onto already stressed out tenants and their families.
Most landlords will take the holiday and not pass anything on to their tenants – it's left to tenants to beg for it.
I heard Robertson yesterday saying that if employers took the wage subsidy and didn't pass it on to employees he would 'look into it personally'. The threat was real, but for tenants – well, apparently you are on your own. Nice message for those at the bottom, Grant.
The point being that this stuff isn't uniform across the board and different tenants are going to have widely different problems with their landlords behaviour.
It's totally unacceptable for the Finance Minister and a renters’ advocacy group to palm off the problem onto already stressed out tenants and their families.
Here's how I see it.
Labour put some things in place really quickly.
it's imperfect, we need to keep raising the issues, and also account for the logistics of so many changes happening at once (best practice will take time to oranise)
everyone is being asked to be kind and considerate
those that can, will do so (tenants and landlords come to arrangements via having adult conversations with each other in considerate ways)
those that can't will still need state assistance
we will have a better idea over the next few weeks how many tenants there are that can't pay rent
afaik Tenancy Services will remain open, and you can't evict tenants with no notice, so there is time to sort these issues out
there will be social and economic pressure on landlords not to be arseholes. If someone can't pay rent will a landlord really want to evict them right now when it will be very hard to find new tenants?
it's imperfect, there will be people who come out of this badly. Personally, I think in addition to holding the govt to account we need to focus on how we can help each other.
"Yesterday the Prime Minister assured homeowners that 'no-one would lose their home' due to COVID-19. The one-third of New Zealanders who rent need this same certainty, both during the lockdown and beyond," tenants' advocacy organisation Renters United said in a statement.
Slightly better from RU.
The AM Show host Duncan Garner argued that if landlords are getting mortgage holidays on their rental properties, they should not be allowed to receive rent payments.
"That is what I would say too, Duncan, that is what I am saying to landlords today. This is an opportunity here to really come together. Give that security and assurance to your tenants," Robertson said.
Nope, Grant. Not good enough. And what is you are unlucky enough to have a landlord who isn't taking the mortgage holiday. You're left paying full rent at this acute time due to a decision not your own.
As landlords around the country apply for mortgage deferrals, Robertson said it's up to them to arrange "what kind of rent gets paid" with their tenants.
"We still want people to pay the rent if they can, but we are saying to them you will not be evicted in this period," Robertson told The AM Show.
Great, you just get evicted after this period. That must be great to look forward to when you don't have a job. And, "it's up to landlords". Fucking bullshit it's up to landlords, Grant.
Again, why would landlords evict when it will be very hard to get new tenants? Seriously, I'd like to know what you are thinking.
Some landlords won't take the mortgage holiday (I don't think it's an actual holiday is it? more a deferral. I'm unclear if the deferred payments are accruing interest).
Garner's an idiot, please stop listening to what he is saying.
If I stopped paying rent I would end up arrears to WINZ. There are whole swathes of people that won't need rent help. Those that do, yes the govt will need to look at that, but there is no way to know what the actual situation is yet. Call their response fucking bullshit, but there still needs to be an analysis from critics in the context of the shut down.
This isn't a level field. Homeowners are able to reduce their housing cost to near nil while renter are faced with full rent dependent of the goodwill of their landlords alone. This places enormous stress on renting families whose household earners have lost their job.
Don't forget homeowners can apply for the mortgage holiday and wage subsidy and accomodation supplement while renters can only only apply for the last two.
The no-eviction for lockdown is a basic minimum but what happens at the other end, when tenants have fallen behind and are into debt with landlords and have no job? Things aren't going to look that great then, are they.
It's not the threat of immediate eviction in the next month, it's the threat of eviction in the next 6. Homeowners have been protected from that but renters have not.
Just want some clear rules in place, more than what are being suggested right now.
Later doesn't matter. Jobs will come later. Jobs that can pay for minor increases in a mortgage spread out over 25 years.
It's now that matters. For renters.
Some will have the entire wage subsidy and more go in rent alone while homeowners don’t have to pay a cent. That is utter, utter rubbish.
There needs to be a fast-tracked, easy to access, massive increase in the accomodation supplement for six months. Only applies to Covid-19 affected tenants and any voluntary rent reductions by landlords taken into account.
My understanding is that you’ll have to show a (substantial?) reduction in income when applying to your bank for a mortgage holiday. It is not a given [no pun] and banks will want (need?) to keep payments going if feasible. Whether it’ll be a matter of squeezing blood out of a stone, I don’t know and I doubt it.
I’d be surprised if the banks’ profits increase as a result of this. Similarly, we’re all in this together; there are no windfalls for anybody unless you have a shed full (shit loads) of toilet paper. But maybe I’m not as bleak as you think I am 😉
Thats my understanding, too @incognito, and because I earn under the $585 wage subsidy anyway, I'm sure I won't be eligible, which is fine by me – use the money for those dropping huge weekly numbers for 12 weeks.
On Monday morning I told my boss to apply for the leave payment, as advised by the nurse who called me on Sunday night, so she applied for just the general wage subsidy instead. I would have been right pissed off with her, but then a couple of hours later was the lock down order, so ultimately no difference really, I still get to isolate on pay. once over, if there's still higher than a level two alert in place, as a vulnerable person, I'll again ask her to apply for leave.
To answer the other questions, yes to stopping work like all other non essentials, with the wage subsidy helping me out not a benefit
It is a matter of identifying those who qualify for help with their rent.
Basically all those losing normal income or their jobs entirely.
1. where landlords seek mortgage relief because of their tenants inability to pay full rent should be only allowed to charge half rent.
2. where landlords are still paying their mortgages (eg using sales of shares or property to pay down their mortgages), then the tenant being on wage subsidy job or moving onto the dole, then for the lockdown/duration of pandemic impact on employment should be only allowed to charge half rent.
Don't forget that in many/most cases the rent is used by the landlord to pay the mortgage. No rent, and the property goes up for mortgagee sale, and the tenant gets the chop. Between the tenant and the bank, the landlord is often just the meat in the sandwich, hoping to make a small income from the property while waiting (in vain these days) for some long term capital gain. Most landlords are as much victims in this as their tenants.
Where the landlord seeks the mortgage holiday on the grounds their tenant has hardship (loss of income and cannot pay the full rent) then the tenant should be charged no more than half rent (enough to cover rates and insurance and any property management costs).
Others are losing income why should landlords be immune? The rents are only this high because of the market – and now the market is f*$d. Allowing landlords to charge full rent while there is no one in the market able to pay for it is …
Now where a landlord is living off/dependent on the rental income, they can apply to the government for income support.
Rent is usually determined by mortgage cost + insurance + rates + maintenance plus a bit to live off. Rents are 'high' because property prices are high. But when the value of the property goes down, its rare for the mortgage cost, rates and insurance to go down, so the rent stays 'high' to cover the actual outgoings. That the market is in difficulty does not reduce the landlord's costs, so she cannot afford to reduce the rent. If no one is prepared to pay that rent, then the place remains vacant. The only option then is to sell, which usually results in expulsion of the tenant. A no-win situation all round (except for the banks, of course).
Any landlord trying to charge full rent to someone who has lost their job during the pandemic is as a dangerous to themselves and society as those who refuse to self isolate because they do not have symptoms yet.
"But when the value of the property goes down, its rare for the mortgage cost, rates and insurance to go down, "
Competing properties that have been purchased in the down turn do have lower mortgage costs, equally properties purchased when the market was lower say 2008 also have lower mortgage costs than those purchases at the height of the property market, yet BOTH charge market rents. Same applies when interest rates reduce do we see a reduction in rents ?? 🤔🤫
As I remember, when students were given a $50 increase to their accommodation allowance, a whole bunch of Wellington landlords immediately increased the rent of flats let to students by guess how much?
I think that rubbishes Adam Ash's high-faluting theory.
Public business handed to private profiteers really hurts when applied to hospital parking. Wilson Parking etc is one of the tormenting terribles of NMZ's neolib 'reforms'. I could get really mad at some pollies and businesspeople.
<i>A nurse at Auckland City Hospital says it was punch to the gut to work under the pressure of the pandemic all day then be charged $19 for car parking.</i>
Don't spend time planning to hold a committee task force conference about it, get off your fannies and start attending to some of the anomalies that hold us to ransom in our Jewel of the South Pacific (we saved this nice bit of the world for you rich people to have as a have-n.)
Pneumonia would be is more of a diagnosis than a bug. You’ll usually see a statement like this related to it in medical waffle. “Pneumonia is an infection in one or both lungs. Bacteria, viruses, and fungi cause it.”
covid-19 is itself a pneumonic {?sp} disease as it is an infection that targets lung cells.
She was receiving a vaccine against one (or more) of the bacteria which cause pneumonia.
"Insurance companies will still cover you for a crash if your warrant of fitness runs out during the lockdown period, as long as your vehicle doesn't have an existing safety issue."
It's still going to make more sense to just go get the WOF. Places will still be available to do them.
Covid19
Drivesure Vehicle Testing Stations in Henderson, Manukau and Papakura will be open on Tuesdays only to assist essential service vehicles to remain safe on our roads with WOF and COF inspections. Stringent isolation and distancing practices will be in place at all times.
Is there a law against 70 plus people doing food shopping in a supermarket in NZ? A family member of mine was yesterday on a bus which left Takapuna going through to Devonport (Auckland here) and there was a lady on board andshe was in tears. She had a walker with a basket on the front and had been denied access to a supermarket in Takapuna because she was over 70. She had to get on a bus to go to the Devonport NewWorld. She told this family member of mine she was suicidal and didn't think she could carry on.
As I write this I am on a call to the 0800 number (won't name the store) to tell them what a disgusting thing to do to an elderly lady. She wasn't there because she wanted to be – it was for food for goodness sake).
Is there categorically a law against people over 70 food shopping. I realise we must be serious about not getting out and mingling and most will be strictly sticking to the rules. There are people who live alone, have no children living in NZ, maybe no grandchildren. For pity's sake.
Finally got through and read them the riot act. The big wig has been informed of the situation and have been told they are not a fiefdom and law unto themselves and that it is as essential service they provide. I also told them I wouldn't hesitate to get John Campbell on to it and name and shame them. Frankly its a bloody disgrace. Sometimes this country disappoints me so much it stinks.
This 70 year old has had no such problem at our supermarkets. But, he also has had to be the supermarket shopper for his daughter who is in isolation after returning from overseas. Since then, to make matters more complicated, I have been tested today for Covid19 since I have a cough and had a contact with my daughter at the airport. Now both of us need a supermarket shopper…… thank god for neighbours and nephews-in-law.
1. to have a worker do the shopping for her to collect then and there and pay for.
2. get her details and phone her back so she can make future orders for home delivery in this way (not easy to do anything on-line if she has no device or internet).
Shops need to provide a phone order option for those over 70
The community needs to get these people on-line and supply them with a device.
I agree. In a perfect world they would have found a chair, sat the lady down and got a staff member to get the food items she needed. She had a walker with a basket attached so she wouldn't have been able to shop for much. This is honestly the most shitty thing that I have heard about for a long time. Fighting in the supermarkets is a gone with the moronic people who frequent them but just plain common decency has gone down the gurgler during this crisis and its frightening how callous and mean some people have become. I have done my bit and given the boss an absolute earful and threatened to name and shame them so I don't think the red neck beef heads guarding the door will be doing it again.
That's appalling, good on you ringing and complaining, terrifies me to think there are people going through this crap! I wish Grey Power had some kind of hotline or website where elderly could ask for help and people like me (mid 40s, happy to help) could offer assistance.
Grey Power should have a local office or contact depending on the size of the local association. I'm in GP on a committee and we'd be glad to act aa an advocate with a supermarket on such an issue. With nearly 60,000 members, bad publicity would have an impact upon a rogue supermarket. The Grey Power website is easily accessed and it contains contact names and details for every association. https://greypower.co.nz/associations/
There are only two supermarkets in Takapuna – one at Hauraki Corner and the other in Barrys Point Rd. Both are Countdown. Sounds like an officious 30 to 40 aged supervisor has got it all wrong. 70 plus shoppers have not been banned from anywhere including supermarkets. They have been strongly advised to stay home and get someone else to do their shopping or arrange a home delivery. Easier said than done at the moment especially if they have no relatives etc. who live close by and/or don't have computer skills. I understand trying to phone orders through has been wrought with difficulty.
And here is the latest chart of Covid 19 patients which suggest that the 70 plus group is a good deal less than 40s, 50s and 60s:
This link issued last night and updated earlier today gives a little clarity on things like online sales eg via Trade Me and also home delivery of food and non-food goods, and other goods. It is by no means complete or set in stone, and is – and will be – an ongoing exercise.
An example – home delivery of non-cooked food eg My Food Bag OK / cooked takeaways NOT OK.
Freight – still a lot of questions etc in this area with some carriers closing down and others ramping up their operations. I understand lots of talking/confusion is still going on in this area.
Here are a couple of RNZ links on these services and related matters from earlier today
This one from 08.43 this morning covers/explains the guidance release last night
This one – an interview/answering peop[e's questions by Dr Siouxxie Wiles – covers a whole range of down to earht scenarios during the lock down, including essential services and home deliveries.
* This area has been a 'major' for me over the last few days. I have had lots of ups and downs stresswise over the last 48 hours and talking with WINZ, F & P and Mainfreight re the urgent delivery from Auckland to Wellington of a new washing machine to beat tonight's deadline. Will post on this separately later, LOL !
I am on the war path with Countdown today. Now they are not giving specials and have given some paltry excuse. They have made millions out of the foot traffic which has gone through their doors buying up to feed the 8th Army and now they are going to gouge the public. Such generous providers they are (sarc) of our essential food we need to have to survive. The Consumers Institute is investigating. What with biffing elderly ladies out of their supermarkets and now this.
If they offered me a block of cheese for $7 I would go there tomorrow – and be in close contact with twice as many people. It would be a stupid thing to do, but hey … $7!
Multiply my action by thousands, and the lockdown isn't working.
Hey that's unfair WK. One silly staffer didn't let an elderly person do her shopping. That does not equate to…biffing elderly ladies out of their supermarkets.
They had specials last week I know because I saw them but its possible they've been too darn stretched to be able to physically process them in the past few days.
I know both food-market chains have categorically denied they have increased their prices as some shoppers are claiming. We have to accept their word for it.
On the other hand, Anne, when I finally succumbed to queueing just to get into a ruddy supermarket, I noticed that almost all Countdown's special labels that had been there the evening before (no queue that time) had disappeared. I think one would have to be a bit naïve to think that with the change in people's priorities, sellers will not tilt the field in their favour. They have put few new bottles of wine out since last Sunday (when they change the specials), but this week there are very few specials at all.
I haven't been inside a Countdown since last week but it does sound like they might have been making the most of the situation. I imagine supermarket shopping will decline dramatically for a while until the panic buyers (most of us in the end) start running out of food.
Lovely the government has worked hard with the banks to organise a mortgage holiday for homeowners and property investors but any such holiday for renters must be negotiated by individual tenants.
The renting class has had a few temporary fences erected but only if they pay full rent while others have temporary cost slashed. Their families’ wellbeing has been discarded as usual. Too hard.
The mortgage holiday is designed to relieve Covid-19 affected homeowners and property investors of outgoings during the six month acute period.
But the government, including Woods just today, made it clear that renters would have no such government organised holiday. She made it clear that tenants were to pay full rent or face the consequences of building debt with landlords.
The thing about the mortgage holiday is that any increased costs accrued by that holiday are spread over the life of the mortgage – easy. But the thing about tenants falling behind in rent over this dramatic period of job loss is that any debt they accrued will be demanded immediately.
What is this caring, worker-focussed government going to do about that?
I find the response by the government, asking tenants to negotiate with landlords, absolutely disgraceful when compared to the response for homeowners, businesses large and small, and across-the-board wages earners.
Full rent for fuck’s sake unless you can negotiate less. Cunts.
Biggest black mark against this government so far (along with the dreadfully poor targeting of Kiwibuild) and you are right, tenants are never thought of in any terms other than second class citizens by the powerful.
We're in the age of peak capitalism – where CGT existed the rates have gone down since the Cold War victory of "democracy". And where some nations cannot now even introduce such a tax – challenge their ruling class (we once had an estate tax in lieu of – ended by RR).
You know who rules over you when they evade taxation on their incomes/capital gains and those on benefits get abated at 90 cents in the dollar (wage levels are kept down by migration).
Mexico City (CNN)Brazilians have been tricked by the media over a "little flu," according to president Jair Bolsonaro. Families should still go out to eat despite coronavirus fears, says Mexico's president Andres Manuél Lopez Obrador. And Nicaragua's leader Daniel Ortega has all but disappeared, while political marches and rallies continue.
As global leaders race to contain the brutal threat of a growing pandemic, a triumvirate of denial has emerged in Latin America, with the leaders of Brazil, Mexico and Nicaragua downplaying the danger of a looming outbreak.
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Ele Ludemann writes – Contrary to what many headlines and news stories are saying, residential landlords are not getting a tax break. The government is simply restoring to them the tax deductibility of interest they had until the previous government removed it. There is no logical reason ...
I can't remember when it was goodMoments of happiness in bloomMaybe I just misunderstoodAll of the love we left behindWatching our flashbacks intertwineMemories I will never findIn spite of whatever you becomeForget that reckless thing turned onI think our lives have just begunI think our lives have just begunDoes anyone ...
Michael Bassett writes – At first reading, a front-page story in the New Zealand Herald on 13 March was bizarre. A group of severely intellectually limited teenagers, with little understanding of the law, have been pleading to the Justice Select Committee not to pass a bill dealing with ram ...
How much political capital is Christopher Luxon willing to burn through in order to deliver his $2.9 billion gift to landlords? Evidently, Luxon is: (a) unable to cost the policy accurately. As Anna Burns-Francis pointed out to him on Breakfast TV, the original ”rock solid” $2.1 billion cost he was ...
TL;DR: My top 10 news and analysis links this morning include:Today’s must-read:Jonathon Porritt calling bullshit in his own blog post on mainstream climate science as ‘The New Denialism’.Local scoop:The Wellington City Council’s list of proposed changes to the IHP recommendations to be debated later today was leaked this ...
TL;DR:Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said yesterday tenants should be grateful for the reinstatement of interest deductibility because landlords would pass on their lower tax costs in the form of lower rents. That would be true if landlords were regulated monopolies such as Transpower or Auckland Airport1, but they’re not, ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Tom Toro Tom Toro is a cartoonist and author. He has published over 200 cartoons in The New Yorker since 2010. His cartoons appear in Playboy, the Paris Review, the New York Times, American Bystander, and elsewhere. Related: What 10 EV lovers ...
The business section of the NZ Herald is full of opinion. Among the more opinionated of all is the ex-Minister of Transport, ex-Minister of Railways, ex MP for Auckland Central (1975-93, Labour), Wellington Central (1996-99, ACT, then list-2005), ex-leader of the ACT Party, uncle to actor Antonia, the veritable granddaddy ...
Hi,Just quickly — I’m blown away by the stories you’ve shared with me over the last week since I put out the ‘Gary’ podcast, where I told you about the time my friend’s flatmate killed the neighbour.And you keep telling me stories — in the comments section, and in my ...
The first season of Rings of Power was not awful. It was thoroughly underwhelming, yes, and left a lingering sense of disappointment, but it was more expensive mediocrity than catastrophe. I wrote at length about the series as it came out (see the Review section of the blog, and go ...
Buzz from the Beehive Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden told Auckland Business Chamber members they were the first audience to hear her priorities as a minister in a government committed to cutting red tape and regulations. She brandished her liberalising credentials, saying Flexible labour markets are the ...
Chris Trotter writes – TO UNDERSTAND WHY NEWSHUB FAILED, it is necessary to understand how TVNZ changed. Up until 1989, the state broadcaster had been funded by a broadcasting licence fee, collected from every citizen in possession of a television set, supplemented by a relatively modest (compared ...
Bob Edlin writes – The Māori Party has been busy issuing a mix of warnings and threats as its expresses its opposition to interest deductibility for landlords and the plans of seabed miners. It remains to be seen whether they follow the example of indigenous litigants in Australia, ...
The Government has accepted Labour’s change to the Road User Charge (RUC) discount for hybrid vehicles, meaning there will still be some incentive for people to buy greener vehicles. ...
Kicking the most vulnerable people out of state housing and pushing them towards homelessness will result in a proliferation of poverty and trauma across our most vulnerable communities. ...
Te Pāti Māori co-leader and MP for Waiariki, Rawiri Waititi has penned a letter asking MPs to support his members bill to remove GST from all food. The bill is expected to go through its first reading in parliament this Wednesday. “I’m calling on all political parties to support my ...
This year is about getting real with Kiwis and discussing the tough issues, as the National Government exacerbates inequality and divides New Zealand, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said ...
The Government adding Significant Natural Areas (SNAs) to its already roaring environmental policy bonfire is an assault on the future of wildlife that makes Aotearoa unique. ...
After 12 years of fighting to protect our moana we are finding ourselves back at square one and back at court. Today, the Environmental Protection Agency is sitting in Hawera to reconsider an application from Trans-Tasman Resources to dig up 50 million tonnes of the seabed in South Taranaki. This ...
Minister Shane Jones’ decision to step away from a seabed mining project is evidence of the murky waters surrounding the Government’s fast-track legislation. ...
The growth of Treaty of Waitangi clauses in legislation caused so much worry that a special oversight group was set up by the last government in a bid to get greater coherence in the publicservice on Treaty matters. When ministers first considered the need for tighter oversight in 2021, there ...
The growth of Treaty of Waitangi clauses in legislation caused so much worry that a special oversight group was set up by the last government in a bid to get greater coherence in the publicservice on Treaty matters. When ministers first considered the need for tighter oversight in 2021, there ...
The Coalition Government’s miscalculation saga continues as it has forgotten an eyewatering $90 million gap in its interest deductibility cost figures, say Labour Finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds and Revenue Spokesperson Deborah Russell. ...
He Pou a Rangi Climate Change Commission has today released advice that says if the Government doesn’t act now New Zealand is at risk of not meeting its climate goals. ...
The Coalition Government has today confirmed it is abandoning first home buyers who are struggling to get ahead, says Labour Finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds. ...
The New Zealand public voted for a change in direction at the 2023 general election and that is exactly what this coalition government has been delivering in its first 100 days. There was an immediate focus on the economy, easing the cost of living, cracking down on law and order ...
The Government has left the health system as an afterthought, announcing half-baked targets at the last minute of their 100-day plan, says Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall. ...
Kiwis are still waiting for their promised cost of living support after 100 days of a National Government that is taking us backwards, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said today. ...
The National Government has spent its first 100 days stopping, cutting and reversing. They have scrapped stuff for stuff for the sake of it, without putting up any solutions of their own – and it’s hardworking New Zealanders who will pay for it. ...
100 days of National taking NZ backwardsThe National Government has spent its first 100 days stopping, cutting and reversing. They have scrapped stuff for stuff for the sake of it, without putting up any solutions of their own – and it’s hardworking New Zealanders who will pay for it. ...
The Government must commit to funding free and healthy school lunches, as thousands of people sign the petition to keep them, education spokesperson Jan Tinetti says. ...
If the Government was serious about moving families into public housing, they would build more houses so there is actually somewhere for people to go. ...
The free and healthy school lunches programme feeds our kids, helps them to learn, and saves families money – but it is at risk under this Government, education spokesperson Jan Tinetti said. ...
The Government’s proposed changes to Firearms Prohibition Orders (FPO) add almost nothing new and are merely an attempt to distract from its plans to loosen gun laws, police spokesperson Ginny Andersen and justice spokesperson Dr Duncan Webb said. ...
The great Victorian era English politician Lord Macauley stood in the British House of Parliament and said, "The gallery in which the reporters sit has become a fourth estate of the realm".He understood and outlined even way back then, the significant role and influence media have in a democracy. ...
The government’s attack on Māori health this week is committing tangata-whenua to a premature death, says Te Pāti Māori. “The government have begun their onslaught on Māori health with the abolishment of the Māori Health Authority and smokefree laws in the same day” said health spokesperson and co-leader, Debbie Ngarewa-Packer. ...
"The Government is moving quickly to realise an additional $46 million in tariff savings in the EU market this season for Kiwi exporters,” Minister for Trade and Agriculture, Todd McClay says. Parliament is set, this week, to complete the final legislative processes required to bring the New Zealand – European ...
New Zealand’s social workers are qualified, experienced, and more representative of the communities they serve, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “I want to acknowledge and applaud New Zealand’s social workers for the hard work they do, providing invaluable support for our most vulnerable. “To coincide with World ...
Cabinet has agreed to a reduced road user charge (RUC) rate for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. Owners of PHEVs will be eligible for a reduced rate of $38 per 1,000km once all light electric vehicles (EVs) move into the RUC system from 1 April. ...
Minister of Agriculture and Trade, Todd McClay, says that today’s opening of Riverland Foods manufacturing plant in Christchurch is a great example of how trade access to overseas markets creates jobs in New Zealand. Speaking at the official opening of this state-of-the-art pet food factory the Minister noted that exports ...
Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Wellington today. “It was a pleasure to host Foreign Minister Wang Yi during his first official visit to New Zealand since 2017. Our discussions were wide-ranging and enabled engagement on many facets of New Zealand’s relationship with China, including trade, ...
Kāinga Ora – Homes & Communities has been instructed to end the Sustaining Tenancies Framework and take stronger measures against persistent antisocial behaviour by tenants, says Housing Minister Chris Bishop. “Earlier today Finance Minister Nicola Willis and I sent an interim Letter of Expectations to the Board of Kāinga Ora. ...
Tēna koutou katoa. Greetings everyone. Thank you to the Auckland Chamber of Commerce and the Honourable Simon Bridges for hosting this address today. I acknowledge the business leaders in this room, the leaders and governors, the employers, the entrepreneurs, the investors, and the wealth creators. The coalition Government shares your ...
Minister Winston Peters completed the final leg of his visit to South and South East Asia in Singapore today, where he focused on enhancing one of New Zealand’s indispensable strategic partnerships. “Singapore is our most important defence partner in South East Asia, our fourth-largest trading partner and a ...
Minister of Internal Affairs and Workplace Relations and Safety, Hon. Brooke van Velden, will travel to the Republic of Korea to represent New Zealand at the Third Summit for Democracy on 18 March. The summit, hosted by the Republic of Korea, was first convened by the United States in 2021, ...
ICNZ Speech 7 March 2024, Auckland Acknowledgements and opening Mōrena, ngā mihi nui. Ko Andrew Bayly aho, Nor Whanganui aho. Good morning, it’s a privilege to be here to open the ICNZ annual conference, thank you to Mark for the Mihi Whakatau My thanks to Tim Grafton for inviting me ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Lead Coordination Minister Judith Collins have expressed their deepest sympathy on the five-year anniversary of the Christchurch terror attacks. “March 15, 2019, was a day when families, communities and the country came together both in sorrow and solidarity,” Mr Luxon says. “Today we pay our respects to the 51 shuhada ...
Speech for Financial Advice NZ Conference 5 March 2024 Acknowledgements and opening Morena, Nga Mihi Nui. Ko Andrew Bayly aho, Nor Whanganui aho. Thanks Nate for your Mihi Whakatau Good morning. It’s a pleasure to formally open your conference this morning. What a lovely day in Wellington, What a great ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters held discussions in Jakarta today about the future of relations between New Zealand and South East Asia’s most populous country. “We are in Jakarta so early in our new government’s term to reflect the huge importance we place on our relationship with Indonesia and South ...
Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters has announced that the Foreign Minister of China, Wang Yi, will visit New Zealand next week. “We look forward to re-engaging with Foreign Minister Wang Yi and discussing the full breadth of the bilateral relationship, which is one of New Zealand’s ...
Transport Minister Simeon Brown has today opened the new Auckland Rail Operations Centre, which will bring together KiwiRail, Auckland Transport, and Auckland One Rail to improve service reliability for Aucklanders. “The recent train disruptions in Auckland have highlighted how important it is KiwiRail and Auckland’s rail agencies work together to ...
The Government is proud to support the 10th edition of Crankworx Rotorua as the Crankworx World Tour returns to Rotorua from 16-24 March 2024, says Minister for Economic Development Melissa Lee. “Over the past 10 years as Crankworx Rotorua has grown, so too have the economic and social benefits that ...
Legislation implementing coalition Government tax commitments and addressing long-standing tax anomalies will be progressed in Parliament next week, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The legislation is contained in an Amendment Paper to the Taxation (Annual Rates for 2023–24, Multinational Tax, and Remedial Matters) Bill issued today. “The Amendment Paper represents ...
Associate Environment Minister Andrew Hoggard has today announced that the Government has agreed to suspend the requirement for councils to comply with the Significant Natural Areas (SNA) provisions of the National Policy Statement for Indigenous Biodiversity for three years, while it replaces the Resource Management Act (RMA).“As it stands, SNAs ...
Agriculture Minister Todd McClay has classified the drought conditions in the Marlborough, Tasman, and Nelson districts as a medium-scale adverse event, acknowledging the challenging conditions facing farmers and growers in the district. “Parts of Marlborough, Tasman, and Nelson districts are in the grip of an intense dry spell. I know ...
The Government is helping farmers eradicate the significant impact of facial eczema (FE) in pastoral animals, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay announced. “A $20 million partnership jointly funded by Beef + Lamb NZ, the Government, and the primary sector will save farmers an estimated NZD$332 million per year, and aims to ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has completed a successful visit to India, saying it was an important step in taking the relationship between the two countries to the next level. “We have laid a strong foundation for the Coalition Government’s priority of enhancing New Zealand-India relations to generate significant future benefit for both countries,” says Mr Peters, ...
Cabinet has agreed to provide $7 million to ensure the 2024 ski season can go ahead on the Whakapapa ski field in the central North Island but has told the operator Ruapehu Alpine Lifts it is the last financial support it will receive from taxpayers. Cabinet also agreed to provide ...
Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says the launch of a new mobile breast screening unit in Counties Manukau reinforces the coalition Government’s commitment to drive better cancer services for all New Zealanders. Speaking at the launch of the new mobile clinic, Dr Reti says it’s a great example of taking ...
Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says the launch of a new mobile breast screening unit in Counties Manukau reinforces the coalition Government’s commitment to drive better cancer services for all New Zealanders. Speaking at the launch of the new mobile clinic, Dr Reti says it’s a great example of taking ...
Unlocking economic growth and land for housing are critical elements of the Government’s plan for our transport network, and planned upgrades to State Highway 29 (SH29) near Tauriko will deliver strongly on those priorities, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “The SH29 upgrades near Tauriko will improve safety at the intersections ...
Unlocking economic growth and land for housing are critical elements of the Government’s plan for our transport network, and planned upgrades to State Highway 29 (SH29) near Tauriko will deliver strongly on those priorities, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “The SH29 upgrades near Tauriko will improve safety at the intersections ...
Lower fruit and vegetable prices are welcome news for New Zealanders who have been doing it tough at the supermarket, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. Stats NZ reported today the price of fruit and vegetables has dropped 9.3 percent in the 12 months to February 2024. “Lower fruit and vege ...
Tēnā koutou katoa and greetings to you all. Chair, I am honoured to address the sixty-eighth session of the Commission on the Status of Women. I acknowledge the many crises impacting the rights of women and girls. Heightened global tensions, war, climate related and humanitarian disasters, and price inflation all ...
Tēnā koutou katoa and greetings to you all. Chair, I am honoured to address the 68th session of the Commission on the Status of Women. I acknowledge the many crises impacting the rights of women and girls. Heightened global tensions, war, climate related and humanitarian disasters, and price inflation all ...
The coalition Government is supporting farmers to enhance land management practices by investing $3.3 million in locally led catchment groups, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay announced. “Farmers and growers deliver significant prosperity for New Zealand and it’s vital their ongoing efforts to improve land management practices and water quality are supported,” ...
Good evening everyone and thank you for that lovely introduction. Thank you also to the Honourable Simon Bridges for the invitation to address your members. Since being sworn in, this coalition Government has hit the ground running with our 100-day plan, delivering the changes that New Zealanders expect of us. ...
Recommendations from the Climate Change Commission for New Zealand on the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) auction and unit limit settings for the next five years have been tabled in Parliament, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. “The Commission provides advice on the ETS annually. This is the third time the ...
The coalition Government is beginning its fight to lower building costs and reduce red tape by exempting minor building work from paying the building levy, says Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk. “Currently, any building project worth $20,444 including GST or more is subject to the building levy which is ...
Proposed changes to tax legislation to prevent the over-taxation of low-earning trusts are welcome, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The changes have been recommended by Parliament’s Finance and Expenditure Committee following consideration of submissions on the Taxation (Annual Rates for 2023–24, Multinational Tax, and Remedial Matters) Bill. “One of the ...
Assalaamu alaikum. السَّلَام عليكم In light of the holy month of Ramadan, I want to extend my warmest wishes to our Muslim community in New Zealand. Ramadan is a time for spiritual reflection, renewed devotion, perseverance, generosity, and forgiveness. It’s a time to strengthen our bonds and appreciate the diversity ...
Former Transport Minister and CEO of the Auckland Business Chamber Hon Simon Bridges has been appointed as the new Board Chair of the New Zealand Transport Agency (NZTA) for a three-year term, Transport Minister Simeon Brown announced today. “Simon brings extensive experience and knowledge in transport policy and governance to the role. He will ...
Good morning all, it is a pleasure to be here as Minister of Science, Innovation and Technology. It is fantastic to see how connected and collaborative the life science and biotechnology industry is here in New Zealand. I would like to thank BioTechNZ and NZTech for the invitation to address ...
Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says he is looking forward to the day when three key water projects in Northland are up and running, unlocking the full potential of land in the region. Mr Jones attended a community event at the site of the Otawere reservoir near Kerikeri on Friday. ...
Associate Finance Minister David Seymour has today announced that the Government has agreed to restore deductibility for mortgage interest on residential investment properties. “Help is on the way for landlords and renters alike. The Government’s restoration of interest deductibility will ease pressure on rents and simplify the tax code,” says ...
Sport and Recreation Minister Chris Bishop will travel to Switzerland today to attend an Executive Committee meeting and Symposium of the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA). Mr Bishop will then travel on to London where he will attend a series of meetings in his capacity as Infrastructure Minister. “New Zealanders believe ...
Pacific Media Watch Ismail al-Ghoul, an Al Jazeera Arabic correspondent who was held for 12 hours at Gaza’s al-Shifa hospital, says Israeli forces rounded up Palestinian journalists at the facility and made them kneel on the ground for hours, while naked and blindfolded. “The occupation forces handcuffed and blindfolded us ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tony Wood, Program Director, Energy, Grattan Institute chinasong, Shutterstock Electricity customers in four Australian states can breathe a sigh of relief. After two years in a row of 20% price increases, power prices have finally stabilised. In many places they’re ...
Chumbawamba have reportedly issued the deputy PM a cease-and-desist notice after he used their song 'Tubthumping' before his state of the nation speech. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Deborah Lupton, SHARP Professor, Vitalities Lab, Centre for Social Research in Health and Social Policy Centre, and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Automated Decision-Making and Society, UNSW Sydney kitzcorner/Shutterstock The assertion from Queensland’s chief health officer John Gerrard that ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University Shutterstock Why are musicians so keen to get played on the radio? It can’t be because of the money. In Australia they are paid at rates so low they ...
"Farmers make a point not to tell our urban cousins how to live, yet Chlöe from central Auckland is hell-bent on having her say about farmers," says ACT Rural Communities spokesman Mark Cameron. “On her first day in the House as Green ...
Analysis by Dr Bryce Edwards – Democracy Project (https://democracyproject.nz)Political scientist, Dr Bryce Edwards. It’s been a tumultuous time in politics in recent months, as the new National-led Government has driven through its “First 100 Day programme”. During this period there’s been a handful of opinion polls, which overall just ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tim Curran, Associate Professor of Ecology, Lincoln University, New Zealand Getty Images/Gerald Corsi In the latest move to reform environmental laws in New Zealand, the coalition government has introduced a bill to fast-track consenting processes for projects deemed to ...
Uber has argued it does not have as much control over drivers as the unions suggest, and wants a judgment ruling that drivers are employees and not contractors set aside and sent back to the Employment Court. The 2022 ruling followed a three-week hearing in which four drivers sought to ...
What can and can’t be purchased by disabled people or their carers has been slashed in an effort by the Ministry of Disabled People Whaikaha to save money. The purchasing guidelines, a set of rules that sets out what can be purchased using the various streams of Government disability funding, ...
The Treasury has published today a new Analytical Note by Tod Wright and Hien Nguyen, Fiscal incidence in New Zealand: The effects of taxes and benefits on household incomes in tax year 2018/19 . Analyses of the distributional impact of taxation and government ...
The Treasury has published today a new Analytical Note by Cory Davis, Boston Hart and Benjamin Stubbing, Household cost-of-living impacts from the Emissions Trading Scheme and using transfers to mitigate regressive outcomes . This Analytical Note ...
A coalition of public transport and climate organisations, united as ‘Transport for All’, is actively opposing the government’s transport proposals. The draft Government Policy Statement (GPS) includes plans for higher fares for public transport, ...
Greater Wellington is inviting feedback on proposed changes to its Revenue and Financing Policy. The Revenue and Financing Policy covers the Council’s various sources of funding, and how the cost of services is shared across the region. This includes ...
Labour has conceded it could have done more to deal with disruptive state housing tenants while in government but says the current coalition is going too far. ...
The band has asked their record label to issue a cease and desist to stop the NZ First leader using their 1997 hit to support his ‘misguided political views’. “I get knocked down, but I get up again,” blared through the speakers on Sunday as Winston Peters took the stage ...
By Lydia Lewis, RNZ Pacific journalist Food rationing is underway in remote areas in Papua New Guinea’s Highlands following torrential rain and flash flooding. More than 20 people have been reported dead in Chimbu Province. In nearby Enga Province, the centre of last month’s massacre, a 15-year-old boy has been ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Hughes, Lecturer, Research School of Management, Australian National University After months of debate and intrigue, the AFL’s 19th and newest team, the Tasmania Devils, finally launched its jumper, logo and colours in Devonport this week. The Devils will wear green, ...
Brannavan Gnanalingam reviews the debut novel by Saraid de Silva.One of the most baffling things for children who move to a new country is what their parents’ (or grandparents’) lives were like prior to moving – for kids in particular, they’re too busy trying to fit in in their ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Gaunson, Associate Professor in Cinema Studies, RMIT University Narelle Portanier/Binge “If you don’t know who your mob are, you don’t know who you are,” Detective Andrea “Andie” Whitford (played by Leah Purcell) is told early into the new crime ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Elise Klein, Associate professor, Australian National University It’s commonly accepted that women do the vast majority of caregiving in Australian society. But less appreciated is that Indigenous women do larger amounts of unpaid care than any other group. Working with the Aboriginal ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne Joe Biden and Donald Trump have both secured their parties’ nominations for the November 5 United States general election by winning a ...
Comment: There has been a striking contrast in trans-Tasman interest about Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi’s visit to New Zealand and Australia. While the Australian press has been full of articles about the visit – including his curious decision to meet with former prime minister and China booster Paul Keating ...
After years of pressuring banks and other institutions to stop investing in fossil fuels, climate campaigners are making some progress. So how does divestment work?For years, climate activists have been pushing banks and other big institutions to divest from fossil fuels. New research from climate advocacy group 350 Aotearoa ...
For Boba, Ethan and Ashley, K-pop is a place to belong, a way to express themselves, and a bridge to connect with others. The three young Polynesians are part of a K-pop fan community in Tāmaki Makaurau. It’s one of many that have sprung up worldwide as K-pop has gone ...
For Boba, Ethan and Ashley, K-pop is a place to belong, a way to express themselves, and a bridge to connect with others. This one-off documentary presents three intimate portraits of young Polynesians who are pulled into a Korean cultural phenomenon. K-POLYS is directed by Litia Tuiburelevu, Produced by Hex ...
There’s ample evidence demonstrating free school lunch programmes provide wide benefits across schools, households and communities according to public health researchers. ACT Minister David Seymour wants to reduce the spending on Aotearoa New Zealand’s ...
By Wata Shaw in Suva Fiji is facing an exodus of Fijians as many are leaving for overseas seeking employment and education and others are migrating, says Opposition MP Viliame Naupoto. Speaking in Parliament, he said: “His Excellency’s speech (Ratu Wiliame Katonivere) comes after a little over one year of ...
The Taxpayers’ Union is welcoming comments from Christopher Luxon this morning recommitting to ‘no new taxes’ as part of Budget 2024. “Mr Luxon’s refusal at the Post-Cabinet press conference yesterday to repeat the ‘no new taxes’ promise ...
SAFE is urgently calling on the Environment Committee to reject the Government’s Fast-Track Approvals Bill, and is urging New Zealanders to rally behind the call. The proposed Bill, currently under consideration with the Environment select committee, ...
Teammates who spend all their time picking fights with spectators are only helpful for the other team, writes Madeleine Chapman. Anyone who has ever played a team sport competitively, particularly as a child and particularly, for some reason, basketball, will know that there’s a lot of politics involved. While there ...
The long-running Wellington music festival is too focused on the Jim Beam-ness and not enough on the Homegrown-ness.There is something about Homegrown that’s difficult to place. A barely perceptible-ness. Like feeling a ghost is watching you from the corner of the room but when you look, there’s nothing there. ...
The latest Ipsos New Zealand Issues Monitor reveals that fewer New Zealanders believe crime / law and order is one of the top issues facing our country. In 2018, Ipsos New Zealand started tracking the key issues facing New Zealand. In this wave ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kate Griffiths, Deputy Program Director, Budgets and Government, Grattan Institute Australia’s political donations rules are woefully inadequate, but donations reform is finally on the agenda. The federal government has signalled its interest in reform and will soon begin briefing MPs on its ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mark Patrick Taylor, Chief Environmental Scientist, EPA Victoria; Honorary Professor, School of Natural Sciences, Macquarie University Naiyana Somchitkaeo/Shutterstock A recent study published in the prestigious New England Journal of Medicine has linked microplastics with risk to human health. The study ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Albert Van Dijk, Professor, Water and Landscape Dynamics, Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National University Global climate records were shattered in 2023, from air and sea temperatures to sea-level rise and sea-ice extent. Scores of countries recorded their hottest year ...
As part of our series exploring how New Zealanders live and our relationship with money, a teacher explains why he and his partner are in frugal mode – and how they’re making it work. Gender: Male Age: 35Ethnicity: Pākehā Role: I am an intermediate school teacher and my partner is ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sarah Bendall, Senior Lecturer, Institute for Humanities and Social Sciences, Australian Catholic University Binge Mary & George, the new British television drama series, depicts the real-life story of Mary Villiers and her son George, and their social climbing at the ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jason Nassios, Associate Professor, Centre of Policy Studies, Victoria University This article is part of The Conversation’s series examining the housing crisis. Read the other articles in the series here. Australian state and federal governments spend money in many ways to ...
The finance minister is denying that there’s a $5.6b shortfall in paying for the government’s campaign promises, including tax cuts. At his post-cabinet press conference yesterday, the PM refused to rule out new taxes to pay for the cuts, writes Anna Rawhiti-Connell in this excerpt from The Bulletin, The Spinoff’s ...
Kāinga Ora tenants abused by their neighbours are doubting the government's crackdown on disruptive tenants will make a difference on their behaviour. ...
Kāinga Ora is New Zealand’s biggest residential landlord, housing more than 180,000 vulnerable people in more than 67,000 properties. Yesterday the government announced a crackdown on its tenants who fall behind on rent. One longtime Kāinga Ora tenant shares her experience.For 18 years I lived in a 1960s standalone ...
Why does this myth persist, and what’s the real reason our skin is suffering?It’s one of the biggest international grievances New Zealanders hold, up there with the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior and 1981’s underarm incident. We’re quick to tell international travellers that the world’s pollution led to the ...
Auckland Council is opposing a fast-track development backed by Sir John Kirwan and Spark NZ, because it doesn’t meet stringent new climate adaptation requirements The post Surf-data centre faces new 3.8C climate warming rules appeared first on Newsroom. ...
When the Criminal Proceeds (Recovery) Act was introduced in 2009 it was firmly targeted at gangs and drugs. The legislation means police no longer need a conviction to seize assets that criminals can’t prove were paid for legitimately, as long as their alleged offences are punishable by more than a ...
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Bob’s relationship with certain members of Lincoln’s academic staff continued to deteriorate in the 1990s. Others supported him publicly, though articles such as Roland Clark’s 1993 piece in Growing Today cannot have pleased the university management. Clark wrote that Bob was selling onions from the Biological Husbandry Unit to a ...
SailGP’s races feature in-your-face action, with agile, hydro-foiling catamarans tacking and jibing for the title over several days. However, public comments ahead of the global series’ return to New Zealand have left this past year’s controversy in the shadows, as a key appointment attracts criticism from dolphin advocates. A year ...
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I’d like to initiate some discussion over the idea of ‘flattening the curve’, herd immunity, and the immediate future of New Zealand.
It seems from what I’ve read, that flattening the curve really entails the same large number of casualties spread over a longer period of time so our hospitals can cope. And herd immunity doesn’t kick in until 70 – 80% of the population has had the disease and recovered (or not).
Either way, that future is dire for this country.
But what if the government has, in fact, acted quickly enough, aided by our island geographical location and we do manage to suppress Covid-19 in the next month?
It will still be raging in other parts of the globe – which would mean life could, more or less, return to ‘normal’ in NZ (minus a tourist industry) but we would still have to be shut off from the rest of the world – until a vaccine can give us that immunity.
A vaccine is 12 months to 18 months away – so we should be thinking about how we will cope with at least a year without real contact with the rest of the world.
Or will we pat ourselves on our collective backs after a month, open up our borders so we can return to life before the pandemic, and probably experience a second wave of Covid-19?
Thoughts?
NB – always assuming there is an ‘economy’ in which to be ‘normal.’
Flattening the curve results in more or less the same number of infections spread over a longer period (assuming no vaccine or other preventative becomes available), but reduces the number of casualties and long-term disabilities because the healthcare system is not so badly overwhelmed and can provide comprehensive care to more of the victims. And buys time to develop vaccines, develop therapies that reduce the severity of the disease, and even just properly test potential therapies that have been hyped on the basis of limited sketchy anecdotes.
Even without re-opening our borders early (please god, don't), the risks from relaxing self-isolation and physical distancing prematurely are severe.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/24/21192528/coronavirus-social-distancing-economy-deaths
Lets be grateful we have a Jacinda Ardern-led government because under their guidance thus far, it is far less likely to happen.
Imagine if it had been the other lot.
Flattening the curve results in more or less the same number of infections spread over a longer period
That's the case for a strategy of "social distancing". But with a "shelter in place" strategy (the one rolling out as form today) the total number of infections can be hugely reduced. Hugely…
If you flatten the curve a lot, then potentially the total area under the curve is less by the time a vaccine is available.
I predict that NZ will handle this better than most. [Side note: I also predict that although it is scientifically improbable the virus itself will be gone from the world in a matter of months, but there will be so many other issues it will barely be noted]
There will be a drive towards internal tourism, and possibly a temporary reallocation of staff to other industries…maybe working to solve our housing crisis takes priority over welcoming visitors? That would be good to see.
Farming – focus will shift on how to preserve large amounts of food with an eye to possible export later, but it could be used for the domestic population (we are about to see crazy things happening with the food chain overseas that will promote this idea).
Int Freight – this will be kept in quarantine for weeks rather than moving it asap.
Antibiotics – these may be produced here in NZ due to ongoing global instability.
Your community – communities move to be as self sustaining as possible, with work either from home or a short walk away, sharing of backyards for gardens, looking after each other. Essentially the crisis or as per my prediction above many of them drive people in this direction naturally.
"There will be a drive towards internal tourism, and possibly a temporary reallocation of staff to other industries"
Permanent reallocation I think. We need to future proof our economy, make it more diverse and less reliant on vulnerable industries (tourism was already vulnerable because of CC but few wanted to talk about it). There are lots of things needing to be done that we can create jobs around (many local food businesses, ecological restoration, climate mitigation, people centred support)
I'd like to see NZers go back to having holidays rather than artificially creating a tourism industry that needs people to be moving around a lot to sustain itself. There is a huge opportunity here to rethink how we do things across many areas, and to create truly sustainable economies, rather than the top down ones we've been using.
"Don't leave home until you've seen the country."
I'm with you here A.
Not sure about the eradication of the virus so quickly, but the rest of it would be a godsend. And I agree, once the benchmarks have been set people will start to follow them naturally.
Sorry rich pricks, but your days of fleecing other people for personal gain regardless of the consequences are hopefully numbered.
"Sorry rich pricks, but your days of fleecing other people for personal gain regardless of the consequences are hopefully numbered."
You can say that again 😀
"flattening the curve really entails the same large number of casualties spread over a longer period of time so our hospitals can cope."
I think others have addressed this, but reiterating that flattening the curve saves lives (for a number of reasons).
Yes, I think it's reasonable to assume we won't be going back to BAU any time soon. I don't think ever, and I think we need to be thinking about how to transition into something we actually want. This is a really big opportunity for NZ and all humans.
It seems from what I’ve read, that flattening the curve really entails the same large number of casualties spread over a longer period of time so our hospitals can cope. And herd immunity doesn’t kick in until 70 – 80% of the population has had the disease and recovered (or not).
I placed a link up yesterday on that front. Here it is again. (Hit any state in the map, ignore the sign up box, and scroll up for the modeling)
Essentially then, there is one strategy that "flattens the curve" and it involves a 70% infection rate and many deaths – ie, herd immunity.
Then there's the NZ response which, if everyone adhered to it, could mean a single digit infection rate.
Thing is (well, there are a couple of things), NZ might not have moved fast enough. The lock-down has that gaping supermarket hole (and others besides). People don't seem to understand the potential of a successful lock-down. I know that I didn't, and most people who've shared their understanding with me didn't – so there's the messaging coming from government.
Good graphic.
Pretty sure that the NZ government is working on the premise of widespread transmission now. Hence shut down to flatten the curve so that our health system doesn't get overloaded. I think we're still in a good position to manage this, but there will be some shock with the first deaths and as people adjust to the realities (of covid and the social/work disruptions). We've come a long way in the past 2 weeks though.
Herd immunity as a strategy at this stage isn't about flattening the curve. It's about letting the curve peak now and sucking up the chaos, death and suffering this causes (eg the UK).
Long term herd immunity is a different issue, and I'm not sure we know yet how that will play out. There are factors like how fast the virus is mutating and how quickly humans develop varying levels of immunity to a new organism. Have you seen the graphs with the peaks and troughs as waves of covid move through a population? 70% for herd immunity still leaves 30% still to be exposed, and some of those people will be at risk.
Agreed that there are too many people that don't get it yet. It takes time for people to get their heads around it. After today this will change, because there will be much more social and state enforcement (people who aren't up to speed will have consequences).
Pretty sure that the NZ government is working on the premise of widespread transmission now.
A Shelter in Place strategy, like what the government is trying, is not a strategy that assumes widespread transmission. Thing is, I don't get the disconnect between the strategy and the messaging.
Plenty of places have managed to eradicate COVID 19 without 'achieving' herd immunity – Vietnam, China, S. Korea….
From what I can tell, they have achieved eradication via the very same Shelter in Place type strategies this government is trying.
I know a number of people who will likely die if they get infected. Until I understood the possible effect of the different strategies, I was assuming their chances of life simply diminished with time. Not so.
But if people continue to think the end goal is 'herd immunity', then many people likely won't adhere to the Shelter in Place strategy. Why would they, if they're going to get infected anyway, and there's a fair chance their own infection will be fairly mild?
Unless that site I linked is absolute tosh (and I really don't think that it is) then the government needs to up its messaging game immediately.
"A Shelter in Place strategy, like what the government is trying, is not a strategy that assumes widespread transmission. Thing is, I don't get the disconnect between the strategy and the messaging."
Our version of shut down presumes that 1) there is community transmission and 2) we need to contain that so that the hospital system doesn't get overloaded.
But, we can't stay in shut down forever, and I doubt we can manage it for the 12 – 18 months until we get a vaccine. And that vaccine will likely still be non-perfect ie community transmission will still happen. Just a lot slower.
By widespread community transmission I mean that at some point it will be in most places. I don't think we can stop that, but we can slow it, hence flattening the curve.
I don't mean we will end up like the US, Italy, Uk etc. Also, there's the ratio of infections to our health system capacity (I don't have a good sense of that yet).
Not sure what you mean by eradicate there. I don't think anyone is thinking eradication once it's in the community. South Korea is still getting new clusters afaik. Our shut down isn't like what China did, but they haven't reopened everything yet, so we will see. They're still getting infection from inbound travellers too.
Re messaging, I think the flatten the curve one is still the way to go. The basis of it is to keep our health system functioning (not just for covid but for anything), and to prevent unnecessary deaths. I'm sure more could be done on messaging too.
Are people in NZ talking about herd immunity as a strategy?
Language is maddening.
'Every' country has had community transmission. Some countries fell back on their experience with SARS and rolled out a version of NZ's current strategy. As a result, the likes of Vietnam are not getting new cases in the hundreds or in the thousands. (According to WHO figures, the total figure for Vietnam is 123 cases) Yes, inbound travelers are likely re-introducing the virus – causing smaller local flareups that get stomped on.
Social Distancing is akin to the herd immunity (non) strategy insofar as it only slows the final and inevitable arrival of 'herd immunity' levels of infection in the population
Shelter in Place is about the infection never reaching herd immunity levels. Shelter in Place, if adhered to, obviously also lessens the burden on health services (flattens the curve), and equally obviously does not rely on a vaccine becoming available.
Covid can be stamped out if it has no available vectors for spread – which is what Shelter in Place attempts to do and, it seems, can achieve.
Is it a "one hit" strategy? No. I'd be saying it's a "rinse and repeat" one – but with each repeat being in a more localised area since we'll be getting ahead of it instead of sitting back and "waiting to see" as many"western" countries have done, and Asian countries didn't.
edit – if we ‘blow’ this current strategy, we will most assuredly wind up exactly like the UK, Europe and N America btw
Flattening the curve is precisely to prevent us becoming like UK, Europe and the US. UK, Italy, and the US fucked up, we haven't (thus far).
Reading what McFlock says before, Shelter in Place in NZ seems to have two aims. One is to try and remove all community transmission. Two is to flatten the curve if we can't do that. The former may or may not be possible.
If we do remove all community transmission, then there would be a very big change to how we live our lives in relation to the rest of the world (not a bad thing, needed to happen, but still very big change).
I'm not sure that the stomping it out from a place that has lots of community transmission is possible. Vietnam looks more like NZ in terms of what stage it is at (small number of cases, doesn't know yet what is going to happen). It hasn't had a large outbreak and then contained it.
In terms of countries that have had large outbreaks and then used localised shut downs to contain it, I'm thinking that this is more about the peaks and troughs thing until most people have been exposed, but there are so many variables that we just don't know yet. Hard to imagine Asia becoming covid free entirely, but will be interested to see how knowledge and theory develop around this.
Vietnam didn't have the large outbreak, because Vietnam launched effective strategies right off the bat. So did other places. The NZ response may or may not have been timely enough. We’ll see.
It's a no brainer that Shelter in Place "flatten the curve", but the idea is also to keep infection levels well below what they they would be with "social distancing'' measures that result, eventually, in levels of infection of 70% or so (ie, whatever the herd immunity level may be for COVID)
If the Shelter in Place strategy falls over, then the curve will likely still be flattened, but health services will probably be overwhelmed at some point – ie, the situation will begin to resemble a "social distance" scenario.
Herd immunity only works if reinfection is not a significant probability. This might be in doubt.
Physical distancing and handwashing is essentially lowering the R0 of an infectious disease: rather than each contagious person infecting 10 people, they might only infect 3. So while the cycle between catching it and infecting others takes the same amount of time, it doesn't snowball so much and gives contact tracers time to have an effect.
I am not privy to the decision-making of the powers that be, but it's worth noting that we have only 4 cases where community transmission is likely, the rest have direct links to overseas travel. It is the latter that is dramatically increasing. So I suspect level 4 is to eliminate the nascent community transmission while we can, and also to lower the threat from the returning NZers. But I don't think it's because loads of NZers are about to be infected out of the blue (well, depending on how closely they queued for bogroll and ammunition).
thanks, I had been assuming it was out there but we hadn't caught up with the testing yet and the lag between exposure and active illness. Do you mean that we might actually eliminate community transmission altogether? What happens after that?
I think it's a hope, and not entirely fanciful.
If we get really lucky and eliminate community transmission so we get through this with almost all of NZ avoiding exposure to the virus, but the rest of the world ends up more or less going the herd exposure and subsequent immunity route, that's going to have implications for our isolation. As in, we will need to stay very strongly isolated because we will always be vulnerable to an outbreak. Until there's a vaccine.
Was working off this. Lots of Details to Come cases.
https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-cases
Yeah I was working off the report of the daily briefing.
"more were suspected" or whatever the wording was could be 2, could be 20. But I reckon we're still in with a chance of knocking it on the head, because we don't suddenly have clusters of 25 or thirty appearing out of the blue, meaning dozens of undetected carriers.
that's good news, in which case Bill's point about messaging may be right, although there's still no accounting for stupid and even the most perfect govt response can't control that.
I'm pretty cool with the messaging so far. Sheltering in place can't be anywhere close to 100%, but it changes the default from "I'll quickly do this" to "why are you out?". So next-level physical distancing, not complete solitude.
People are slowly learning to queue on the sticker on the floor, too.
(well, depending on how closely they queued for bogroll and ammunition).
Not to mention the "hordes" that shut down SH1 by 'mobbing' KFC and McDs the other day.
I suspect if the messaging had been strongly along the lines of "this might mean a 15% infection rate" instead of (it seems) allowing people to assume the virus was going to run it's course and infect most people one way or another, then maybe (just maybe) there would have fewer "devil may care" people at KFC and gun stores etc.
I dunno. Stoopid gonna stoop. Talk of 15% would have just caused more fights over KFC and more ammo sold to the nuts.
You reckon? Don't think it might have helped to get people on side and willfully acting for the greater good?
Anyway. This is where we are.
I think there are precipitously-diminishing returns in the efforts required to optimise messaging for people whose first instinct is to hoard toilet paper.
My most optimistic thought as we go into self isolation, which according to one poll, a massive 93% of us want, is that we halt the disease here. Possible because after two months in wuhan only one new case in the last week.
if we then keep our boarders closed and quarantine all kiwis coming back from overseas,gradually we will be able to come out of isolation and I have this hopeful idea that then maybe by spring we can all start holidaying in our own country. Places like Queenstown out of reach for many NZders now a possibility. Gradually this will help pick the economy up (holidaying in NZ rather than overseas travel just like N Z in thr sixties). We would have to stop kiwis travelling abroad though
I haven't been to Qt in years. Would be good to go visit their legendary Sallies store.
Pharmaceutical disaster capitalism. Anyone wanna place bets on how many members of the nepotistic kakistocracy indulged in a little insider trading before this rort went through?
https://theintercept.com/2020/03/23/gilead-sciences-coronavirus-treatment-orphan-drug-status/
And do my dough?
. And an aide to Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, who serves on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, sold off stock in companies including Delta Airlines in late January and later bought stock in Clorox, Inc., which makes bleach and sanitary wipes.
[…]
Other members stand to make money off companies working to combat the disease. Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Va.) purchased between $1,001 and $15,000 of stock in the pharmaceutical company AbbVie Inc., on Feb. 27, the day the company released a statement saying it had donated one of its antiviral drugs to China as an experimental option for treating the coronavirus and that it was exploring a research collaboration on potential treatment options
[…]
Scott Sloofman, a top communications aide in Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s office, purchased stock in a company that could wind up being instrumental in the fight against the coronavirus in late January: Moderna, Inc., which is now testing the first vaccine for the disease in Washington state.
[…]
Sarah Holmes, New Hampshire-based state director to New Hampshire Sen. Jeanne Shaheen and a longtime aide to the senator, sold between $1,001 and $15,000 worth of stock in Delta Airlines on Jan. 24, as lawmakers were beginning to be clued into the forthcoming crisis.
Holmes traded out two stocks a week later, on Jan. 29, then on Feb. 27 made two purchases that could prove advantageous in the weeks ahead: Holmes purchased between $15,001 and $50,000 of stock in each of two more companies, the pharmaceutical company Gilead, Inc. — which makes remdesivir, a drug that is currently being tested to treat coronavirus — and wipe manufacturer Clorox.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/21/coronavirus-trading-house-senate-140260
We don't have to look as far as the U$A for that behaviour.
We have similar vile types here
"The Warehouse's share price also rose by more than a third, before it was placed in a trading halt.
The company called for the halt while it sorted out the confusion about whether or not it will be able to carry on trading through the Covid-19 lock-down period."
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/412510/sharemarket-ends-day-up-7-point-2-percent-after-poor-start
It constantly occurs to me these shareholders are self serving parasites, an affliction society would be better off without.
Please don't forget to check on elderly neighbours.
Make sure you have their phone numbers. They maybe scared and need reassurance.
Thanks Cinny.
Printed off a number of info sheets etc today and dropped them in the letterboxes of my elderly neighbours as some aren't that internet savvy. They were rapt.
When I spoke to them last night, they were all prepared, but they were scared.
@ mods, looks like we're all in for a long haul, so how about a place to post our distractions de jour?
https://twitter.com/springsteen/status/1240052960035471362
That's a great idea Joe
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPLgsV_Ms3Q
Good idea. I was thinking that when we go into full shut down mode tomorrow we could have a post/thread for our equivalent of the Italians singing to each other. I'll chat to the other authors and see what can be organised.
Love the clip of Springsteen Joe 90…. arh back in the innocent days when the crowds had no idea about social distancing
with Covid-19 and the shutdown dominating eveyones thoughts at the moment I almost missed this piece of cherry news
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12319352
The biggest game changer in the history of medicine.
https://twitter.com/carlzimmer/status/1242180187824979969
I gotta admit, I've got a Darwinian view of that. I mean, taking medical advice from a dude that looks like a diseased oompa-loompa and looks directly into a solar eclipse … really?
A self-culling base!
edit:
https://www.newsweek.com/wisconsin-woman-licks-grocery-store-freezer-handle-protest-coronavirus-1493354
Yup.
https://www.motherjones.com/coronavirus-updates/2020/03/amid-coronavirus-spread-an-evangelical-university-welcomes-students-back-to-campus/
And Trump just said in a Fox News interview – America will go back to work on 15th April!!!!
..coincidences ….
https://twitter.com/Fahrenthold/status/1242227062028582915
In practical terms, decisions about lockdowns, banning mass gatherings etc are much more at state level than federal.
So far, it's generally been solidly Dem states that have been earlier and stronger actors in implementing control measures, while Repug states have been less active.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/emergencies-closures-states-handling-coronavirus-200317213356419.html
That university link reminds me of Ruth Dudley Edwards novel Murdering Americans, all about the antics of a profit-oriented university that teaches PC, and in that order.
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/131277.Murdering_Americans
Self-culling base indeed. Pack them churches for Easter!
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/24/21192812/fox-news-virtual-town-hall-donald-trump-coronavirus
They're dying to own the libs.
https://twitter.com/drdesrochers/status/1242560551613579266
https://twitter.com/RepThomasMassie/status/1242486764964634624
As peachy AF.
The coronavirus survived for up to 17 days aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship, living far longer on surfaces than previous research has shown, according to new data published Monday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/23/cdc-coronavirus-survived-in-princess-cruise-cabins-up-to-17-days-after-passengers-left.html?
Dude's in his early thirties and probably has the constitution of an ox.
https://twitter.com/Cameronvdburgh/status/1241825206764736514
2/ I have been struggling with Covid-19 for 14 days today. By far the worst virus I have ever endured despite being a healthy individual with strong lungs(no smoking/sport), living a healthy lifestyle and being young (least at risk demographic)
3/ Although the most severe symptoms(extreme fever) have eased, I am still struggling with serious fatigue and a residual cough that I can’t shake. Any physical activity like walking leaves me exhausted for hours.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1241825206764736514.html
update
https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1242257777130536961
Some questions are coming up for me?
Is Trade Me going to remain open to buy a heater or a radio?
I tried 10 places to buy a thermometer yesterday and I could not locate one. Chemists could not say when new stock would arrive. I tried other outlets as well.
Is it not essential for those working to have a thermometer at home or to have access to one at work?
Will ACC reviews still be held?
A case conference is different. I was pissed off as I had one full days notice by the mediator for the case conference which involved 122 pages. I did not attend. Also I tried a few big law firms to get a lawyer and no success.
Good questions. Have TM put up any advisories? Afaik couriers will be operational but I'm unclear if there will be limits on this.
Imo, thermometers this week should be prioritised for medical staff, then people with pre-existing conditions. Like other things, supplies will even out over time, but I'm guessing we don't have a thermometer for everyone in NZ that needs one. Unless pharma supply companies keep a stock for pandemic purposes. Again, the information about this should be more readily available as time goes on.
Re reviews and such, I'd leave them alone until things settle down. We may find that things settled into a post-chaotic pattern next week or so as people and systems adjust.
Just my thoughts.
You should be able to buy stuff from Trademe, but when you will get it is another matter.
New Zealand Post is stopping all over the counter services from midnight tonight. Their mail and courier delivery will continue though.
You should be ok if you buy a thermometer from a large Trademe seller as they probably have a work around or a courier picks up all their orders without face to face contact.
A note from Trademe says that sales can continue for items under 25kg and buyers should use the built in courier service, though the delivery time might be longer.
We’ve had emails from Courier Post and Aramex (Fastway) in the last few days saying they will only be picking up from businesses providing essential services, and asking us to register as such.
With that in mind I’d say the chances of
TradeMe being online much longer are very slim. The potential for transmission would be too much for second hand goods and new would have to be from registered providers of essential services
Have they said if that will be phased in? eg they will deliver what is already in transit/ordered this week?
Here's the Aramex notice
Treetop, I haven't got time right now to check the ACC links below for details re ACC reviews, but hope the links may help you. I note that while they are closing as ACC is not considered an essential service, you can still contact them with questions preferably by email.
General information
https://www.acc.co.nz/covid-19/latest-acc-information-about-covid-19/?smooth-scroll=content-after-navs
For Clients
https://www.acc.co.nz/covid-19/clients/?smooth-scroll=content-after-navs
Hope these links help.
With a case conference the mediator organises it and ACC and the client agree to a time. ACC did not contact me to agree to a time and date. Also the mediator is the person who organised the review date. Last week mediator co ordinator rang to say no face to face reviews and I asked for them to email the process. Also I have been waiting 3 weeks for ACC to tell me when they emailed the mediator about a case conference.
I know when the mediator got the documents.
I want to know when ACC first raised a case conference with the mediator?
ACC case worker did not keep proper records or allow me enough time. I told them that I want the case to go smoothly.
At some point my case will become public if not handled properly. Now is not the time for that.
I feel that urgent reform is required for historical sexual violation/rape in childhood. Any form of sexual assault also needs to be addressed.
This deals with the problem of people coughing deliberately on others. (US)
Yow.
So, with my scratchy throat (on antibiotics) the GP said to self isolate and not interact with others.
I got an email from my local post office saying there is mail in my PO Box today. So, I guess I wait til next week til I can go and collect my mail? Should be OK under lock down rules?
The GP indicated I should be pretty OK to attend the GPS flu clinic next Tuesday for a flu shot. She booked me into a session for people who are well. They have other flu clinics reserved for sick people.
The emails are a very good service, and the PO sends me one whenever I receive mail into my PO Box.
Perhaps there is someone who can pick it up for you..??
Maybe, but I am a bit loathe to ask for more help than I need. I can't imaging there's anything in my mail that needs urgent attention at this time.
I think next week it will become clearer how we manage all these things. I'm in the same situation re PO Box.
Tend to agree, weka. I don't always collect PO Box mail the day I am notified. Others probably are now clearing the boxes less often. The main rule for PO Boxes is not to have too much mail in a box at any one time.
The GP asked me to stay away from other people on the outside chance I may have THE virus, and could pass it on to others. Even passing my key over to someone else could pass on said virus.
I think it's more likely I have strep throat, but the GP said, in phone consultation, she'd normally do a throat swab to check it is bacterial. But this is not the normal situation. She also said if I did happen to be THE virus, it was a mild dose and my underlying health is good. So she wasn't going to get me tested – but to notify them if my condition declines.
This is all to do with how under pressure GPs and the health system is right now. There's probably more people like me contacting them about their mild conditions.
for those who for whatever reason reckon Carlson gets it..
https://twitter.com/oliverdarcy/status/1242242041163255810
Tucker's position is hardly suprising given that he has been the enthusiastic cheerleader for a system that ensures that millions go without health care or housing and are just left to flounder around on their own in the name of the economy.
The attention of all in USA is on a few people who apparently know about viruses and how to fight them, and have education and the background to underpin their pronouncements about the matter, for the people's understanding and assistance.
The elected pollies are probably part-time real estate agents. There are 535 or so all up in main body of pollies I think called the Congress.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Congress
This is the number that enables them to make a really good fist of messing everything up. Too many cooks …I think. And then there are all the workers who try to carry out the program that the cooks dream up.
<i>According to the Office of Personnel Management, as of December 2011, there were approximately 2.79 million civil servants employed by the U.S. government.</i>
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_civil_service
<i>As of 2016, there are around 4,000 political appointment positions which an incoming administration needs to review, and fill or confirm, of which about 1,200 require Senate confirmation.</i>
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_appointments_in_the_United_States
Plants to help weather the storm.
https://www.facebook.com/nick.routledge.39/videos/3067531763330793/
My understanding is that if a review is not held within the 3 month time frame you have to restart the process. There is something about if it is the error of ACC with the time frame.
Even having access to scan documents for a review is an issue.
This is not a priority for me but I do not have a lot of energy for the ACC process in normal times, yet alone a crisis with an unknown outcome.
Sorry moderator this is out of sequence. Could you please put it in the right place.
[lprent: I’m the only person who could move comments within a post because I’m the only one who currently has database access. I don’t do it because it does nasty things to the numbering system. It can sometimes can screw up the entire hierarchical structure of the comments. Also it is a lot of work.
I wrote a routine to allow moderators to move entire parts of the commentary tree to OpenMike. That took me about about 3 days to do perfectly. If I did that at my usual company charge out rates then that would be a significiant amount of money. ]
??
Relates to TT's comment at 10. I expect that all ACC reviews etc have been/will be suspended over this period – probably through the urgent emergency legislation going through the House this afternoon.
I posted a couple of ACC Covid-19 links at 10.4 for TT but now see TT’s reply refers to historic sexual assault/rape. IIRC this has been an ongoing subject for TT here on TS for some years.
Ta
You are correct about the sexual offending having been raised by me.
There has been some progress. The main thing now is the date of injury. Recently a case in Invercargill which has similarities but a twist to mine as ACC has a contract with a DHB for counselling in 2001. I want to fit into the 1982-1992 legislation. The Invercargill case ACC has the discretion to back date more than 12 months.
You are covered from the date which you first recieve treatment for the injury being treated.
But the disclosure got missed on my file notes, not my error.
Also there are 3 lots of legislation I may come under.
People have enough to worry about at present.
Cheers, Treetop
Hang in there.
This is my last attempt and I ain't backing down.
I also think ACC waited to see what the Invercargill decision was.
I will be fine once I find a humanitarian lawyer.
Can't sorry. If you repost in the right place, then I can delete the duplicate (you might have to change it slightly as the system refuses duplicate comments).
I messed it up more than I thought.
I had a good laugh at myself.
At least you can see that I attempted to fix it😂.
I fully understand. I am known for doing stupid stuff.
Good to see Public Address is going to rev up again.
I think Russell Brown lives in Pt Chev. which was part of my youthful stomping ground and I have a relative there, so will be good to hear his reports on how things are going in that part of Auckland.
https://publicaddress.net/hardnews/together-alone/
oh good!
See this shit isn't good enough.
And it's not good enough for Renters United (bless them) to be in thrall of landlords and simply ask that they
Fucking hell, that is weak.
The point being that this stuff isn't uniform across the board and different tenants are going to have widely different problems with their landlords behaviour.
It's totally unacceptable for the Finance Minister and a renters’ advocacy group to palm off the problem onto already stressed out tenants and their families.
Most landlords will take the holiday and not pass anything on to their tenants – it's left to tenants to beg for it.
I heard Robertson yesterday saying that if employers took the wage subsidy and didn't pass it on to employees he would 'look into it personally'. The threat was real, but for tenants – well, apparently you are on your own. Nice message for those at the bottom, Grant.
Let's have some fucking clarity please!
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/412546/coronavirus-tenants-group-calls-for-more-help-for-renters
I shall see what my local MP Denise Lee and the National Party thinks about this…
Here's how I see it.
Slightly better from RU.
Nope, Grant. Not good enough. And what is you are unlucky enough to have a landlord who isn't taking the mortgage holiday. You're left paying full rent at this acute time due to a decision not your own.
Great, you just get evicted after this period. That must be great to look forward to when you don't have a job. And, "it's up to landlords". Fucking bullshit it's up to landlords, Grant.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/03/coronavirus-govt-announces-relief-for-homeowners-but-what-about-renters.html
Again, why would landlords evict when it will be very hard to get new tenants? Seriously, I'd like to know what you are thinking.
Some landlords won't take the mortgage holiday (I don't think it's an actual holiday is it? more a deferral. I'm unclear if the deferred payments are accruing interest).
Garner's an idiot, please stop listening to what he is saying.
If I stopped paying rent I would end up arrears to WINZ. There are whole swathes of people that won't need rent help. Those that do, yes the govt will need to look at that, but there is no way to know what the actual situation is yet. Call their response fucking bullshit, but there still needs to be an analysis from critics in the context of the shut down.
This isn't a level field. Homeowners are able to reduce their housing cost to near nil while renter are faced with full rent dependent of the goodwill of their landlords alone. This places enormous stress on renting families whose household earners have lost their job.
Don't forget homeowners can apply for the mortgage holiday and wage subsidy and accomodation supplement while renters can only only apply for the last two.
The no-eviction for lockdown is a basic minimum but what happens at the other end, when tenants have fallen behind and are into debt with landlords and have no job? Things aren't going to look that great then, are they.
It's not the threat of immediate eviction in the next month, it's the threat of eviction in the next 6. Homeowners have been protected from that but renters have not.
Just want some clear rules in place, more than what are being suggested right now.
How long is the mortgage things? Is it no payment? Deferred payments? Is the interested being loaded on anyway and just has to be paid later?
Later doesn't matter. Jobs will come later. Jobs that can pay for minor increases in a mortgage spread out over 25 years.
It's now that matters. For renters.
Some will have the entire wage subsidy and more go in rent alone while homeowners don’t have to pay a cent. That is utter, utter rubbish.
There needs to be a fast-tracked, easy to access, massive increase in the accomodation supplement for six months. Only applies to Covid-19 affected tenants and any voluntary rent reductions by landlords taken into account.
How much is the wage subsidy?
My understanding is that you’ll have to show a (substantial?) reduction in income when applying to your bank for a mortgage holiday. It is not a given [no pun] and banks will want (need?) to keep payments going if feasible. Whether it’ll be a matter of squeezing blood out of a stone, I don’t know and I doubt it.
My understanding is the government (taxpayers) is covering 80% of the risk. Banks of course will never lose anything.
I’d be surprised if the banks’ profits increase as a result of this. Similarly, we’re all in this together; there are no windfalls for anybody unless you have a shed full (shit loads) of toilet paper. But maybe I’m not as bleak as you think I am 😉
Thats my understanding, too @incognito, and because I earn under the $585 wage subsidy anyway, I'm sure I won't be eligible, which is fine by me – use the money for those dropping huge weekly numbers for 12 weeks.
how did that work out? are you stopping work? Will you get a benefit?
On Monday morning I told my boss to apply for the leave payment, as advised by the nurse who called me on Sunday night, so she applied for just the general wage subsidy instead. I would have been right pissed off with her, but then a couple of hours later was the lock down order, so ultimately no difference really, I still get to isolate on pay. once over, if there's still higher than a level two alert in place, as a vulnerable person, I'll again ask her to apply for leave.
To answer the other questions, yes to stopping work like all other non essentials, with the wage subsidy helping me out not a benefit
It is a matter of identifying those who qualify for help with their rent.
Basically all those losing normal income or their jobs entirely.
1. where landlords seek mortgage relief because of their tenants inability to pay full rent should be only allowed to charge half rent.
2. where landlords are still paying their mortgages (eg using sales of shares or property to pay down their mortgages), then the tenant being on wage subsidy job or moving onto the dole, then for the lockdown/duration of pandemic impact on employment should be only allowed to charge half rent.
Don't forget that in many/most cases the rent is used by the landlord to pay the mortgage. No rent, and the property goes up for mortgagee sale, and the tenant gets the chop. Between the tenant and the bank, the landlord is often just the meat in the sandwich, hoping to make a small income from the property while waiting (in vain these days) for some long term capital gain. Most landlords are as much victims in this as their tenants.
Ok, boomer.
Where the landlord seeks the mortgage holiday on the grounds their tenant has hardship (loss of income and cannot pay the full rent) then the tenant should be charged no more than half rent (enough to cover rates and insurance and any property management costs).
Others are losing income why should landlords be immune? The rents are only this high because of the market – and now the market is f*$d. Allowing landlords to charge full rent while there is no one in the market able to pay for it is …
Now where a landlord is living off/dependent on the rental income, they can apply to the government for income support.
Rent is usually determined by mortgage cost + insurance + rates + maintenance plus a bit to live off. Rents are 'high' because property prices are high. But when the value of the property goes down, its rare for the mortgage cost, rates and insurance to go down, so the rent stays 'high' to cover the actual outgoings. That the market is in difficulty does not reduce the landlord's costs, so she cannot afford to reduce the rent. If no one is prepared to pay that rent, then the place remains vacant. The only option then is to sell, which usually results in expulsion of the tenant. A no-win situation all round (except for the banks, of course).
Any landlord trying to charge full rent to someone who has lost their job during the pandemic is as a dangerous to themselves and society as those who refuse to self isolate because they do not have symptoms yet.
"But when the value of the property goes down, its rare for the mortgage cost, rates and insurance to go down, "
Competing properties that have been purchased in the down turn do have lower mortgage costs, equally properties purchased when the market was lower say 2008 also have lower mortgage costs than those purchases at the height of the property market, yet BOTH charge market rents. Same applies when interest rates reduce do we see a reduction in rents ?? 🤔🤫
Even I can tell that is false. Rent is determined by the market and nothing else.
Go sit in the corner.
As I remember, when students were given a $50 increase to their accommodation allowance, a whole bunch of Wellington landlords immediately increased the rent of flats let to students by guess how much?
I think that rubbishes Adam Ash's high-faluting theory.
@ Alwyn, I’ve lifted the ban and apologies for the oversight.
Thank you.
Public business handed to private profiteers really hurts when applied to hospital parking. Wilson Parking etc is one of the tormenting terribles of NMZ's neolib 'reforms'. I could get really mad at some pollies and businesspeople.
<i>A nurse at Auckland City Hospital says it was punch to the gut to work under the pressure of the pandemic all day then be charged $19 for car parking.</i>
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/412538/it-really-is-shameful-nurse-says-wilson-parking-still-charging-during-covid-19-pandemic
Don't spend time planning to hold a committee task force conference about it, get off your fannies and start attending to some of the anomalies that hold us to ransom in our Jewel of the South Pacific (we saved this nice bit of the world for you rich people to have as a have-n.)
Been told plods were called to a fight in town. In Resene's. Over paint.
WOW! Where abouts Joe?
Something under the radar. There is a vaccine against the bacteria causing pneumonia
Can the public at risk of pneumonia, say those infected with COVID 19 or medical staff at risk of infection get access to this vaccine?
Pneumonia would be is more of a diagnosis than a bug. You’ll usually see a statement like this related to it in medical waffle. “Pneumonia is an infection in one or both lungs. Bacteria, viruses, and fungi cause it.”
covid-19 is itself a pneumonic {?sp} disease as it is an infection that targets lung cells.
She was receiving a vaccine against one (or more) of the bacteria which cause pneumonia.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12319678
Please don’t spam the site with undescriptive links, thanks.
some news that may put some minds at ease'
"Insurance companies will still cover you for a crash if your warrant of fitness runs out during the lockdown period, as long as your vehicle doesn't have an existing safety issue."
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12319678
It's still going to make more sense to just go get the WOF. Places will still be available to do them.
yes …to essential service workers….the concern is a little more widespread than that.
"….to assist essential service vehicles to remain safe on our roads with WOF and COF inspections."
your link
Is there a law against 70 plus people doing food shopping in a supermarket in NZ? A family member of mine was yesterday on a bus which left Takapuna going through to Devonport (Auckland here) and there was a lady on board andshe was in tears. She had a walker with a basket on the front and had been denied access to a supermarket in Takapuna because she was over 70. She had to get on a bus to go to the Devonport NewWorld. She told this family member of mine she was suicidal and didn't think she could carry on.
As I write this I am on a call to the 0800 number (won't name the store) to tell them what a disgusting thing to do to an elderly lady. She wasn't there because she wanted to be – it was for food for goodness sake).
Is there categorically a law against people over 70 food shopping. I realise we must be serious about not getting out and mingling and most will be strictly sticking to the rules. There are people who live alone, have no children living in NZ, maybe no grandchildren. For pity's sake.
Finally got through and read them the riot act. The big wig has been informed of the situation and have been told they are not a fiefdom and law unto themselves and that it is as essential service they provide. I also told them I wouldn't hesitate to get John Campbell on to it and name and shame them. Frankly its a bloody disgrace. Sometimes this country disappoints me so much it stinks.
So how are the elderly to get groceries these days?
This 70 year old has had no such problem at our supermarkets. But, he also has had to be the supermarket shopper for his daughter who is in isolation after returning from overseas. Since then, to make matters more complicated, I have been tested today for Covid19 since I have a cough and had a contact with my daughter at the airport. Now both of us need a supermarket shopper…… thank god for neighbours and nephews-in-law.
Correct practice would have been
1. to have a worker do the shopping for her to collect then and there and pay for.
2. get her details and phone her back so she can make future orders for home delivery in this way (not easy to do anything on-line if she has no device or internet).
Shops need to provide a phone order option for those over 70
The community needs to get these people on-line and supply them with a device.
I agree. In a perfect world they would have found a chair, sat the lady down and got a staff member to get the food items she needed. She had a walker with a basket attached so she wouldn't have been able to shop for much. This is honestly the most shitty thing that I have heard about for a long time. Fighting in the supermarkets is a gone with the moronic people who frequent them but just plain common decency has gone down the gurgler during this crisis and its frightening how callous and mean some people have become. I have done my bit and given the boss an absolute earful and threatened to name and shame them so I don't think the red neck beef heads guarding the door will be doing it again.
That's appalling, good on you ringing and complaining, terrifies me to think there are people going through this crap! I wish Grey Power had some kind of hotline or website where elderly could ask for help and people like me (mid 40s, happy to help) could offer assistance.
Grey Power should have a local office or contact depending on the size of the local association. I'm in GP on a committee and we'd be glad to act aa an advocate with a supermarket on such an issue. With nearly 60,000 members, bad publicity would have an impact upon a rogue supermarket. The Grey Power website is easily accessed and it contains contact names and details for every association. https://greypower.co.nz/associations/
There are only two supermarkets in Takapuna – one at Hauraki Corner and the other in Barrys Point Rd. Both are Countdown. Sounds like an officious 30 to 40 aged supervisor has got it all wrong. 70 plus shoppers have not been banned from anywhere including supermarkets. They have been strongly advised to stay home and get someone else to do their shopping or arrange a home delivery. Easier said than done at the moment especially if they have no relatives etc. who live close by and/or don't have computer skills. I understand trying to phone orders through has been wrought with difficulty.
And here is the latest chart of Covid 19 patients which suggest that the 70 plus group is a good deal less than 40s, 50s and 60s:
<a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/412540/early-analysis-suggests-nz-covid-19-cases-fit-pattern-of-victims-being-older"
James Shaw's address to Parliament is very good indeed.
Essential Services and Deliveries etc during the shutdown
https://covid19.govt.nz/latest-updates/media-release-further-guidance-on-essential-services-provided/
This link issued last night and updated earlier today gives a little clarity on things like online sales eg via Trade Me and also home delivery of food and non-food goods, and other goods. It is by no means complete or set in stone, and is – and will be – an ongoing exercise.
An example – home delivery of non-cooked food eg My Food Bag OK / cooked takeaways NOT OK.
Freight – still a lot of questions etc in this area with some carriers closing down and others ramping up their operations. I understand lots of talking/confusion is still going on in this area.
Here are a couple of RNZ links on these services and related matters from earlier today
This one from 08.43 this morning covers/explains the guidance release last night
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/412537/government-clarifies-essential-services-during-covid-19-lockdown
This one – an interview/answering peop[e's questions by Dr Siouxxie Wiles – covers a whole range of down to earht scenarios during the lock down, including essential services and home deliveries.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/2018740089/science-commentator-siouxsie-wiles-answers-your-covid-questions
* This area has been a 'major' for me over the last few days. I have had lots of ups and downs stresswise over the last 48 hours and talking with WINZ, F & P and Mainfreight re the urgent delivery from Auckland to Wellington of a new washing machine to beat tonight's deadline. Will post on this separately later, LOL !
Ardern shows remarkable patience in these media conferences. Some Chicken Little questions from the journos.
Somebody asked if we should be worried about seeing military vehicles on the street.
"No, but in Italy there are long convoys of military vehicles on the street. They're used to transport hundreds of dead bodies. Worry about that" …
is what she didn't say, but I wanted to.
So did I. One of our engineers got back from a long residency in Italy last week and said that it was rather freaky.
When I was in the TF as a medic, we were told that would probably be one of our roles if we got involved in a emergency
I am on the war path with Countdown today. Now they are not giving specials and have given some paltry excuse. They have made millions out of the foot traffic which has gone through their doors buying up to feed the 8th Army and now they are going to gouge the public. Such generous providers they are (sarc) of our essential food we need to have to survive. The Consumers Institute is investigating. What with biffing elderly ladies out of their supermarkets and now this.
God save us from such vultures.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nzh-search/NZH/countdown+-+specials/1/
I'd give them a pass on that one. It's a bit hard to do specials while having a buy 2 limit on sales of products because of demand.
I ordered some soup on sale two for a special price – range of types (another outlet) and got one can – presumably the rest had run out.
Yep.
If they offered me a block of cheese for $7 I would go there tomorrow – and be in close contact with twice as many people. It would be a stupid thing to do, but hey … $7!
Multiply my action by thousands, and the lockdown isn't working.
Hey that's unfair WK. One silly staffer didn't let an elderly person do her shopping. That does not equate to…biffing elderly ladies out of their supermarkets.
They had specials last week I know because I saw them but its possible they've been too darn stretched to be able to physically process them in the past few days.
I know both food-market chains have categorically denied they have increased their prices as some shoppers are claiming. We have to accept their word for it.
Exaggerating a situation does not help anyone.
On the other hand, Anne, when I finally succumbed to queueing just to get into a ruddy supermarket, I noticed that almost all Countdown's special labels that had been there the evening before (no queue that time) had disappeared. I think one would have to be a bit naïve to think that with the change in people's priorities, sellers will not tilt the field in their favour. They have put few new bottles of wine out since last Sunday (when they change the specials), but this week there are very few specials at all.
I haven't been inside a Countdown since last week but it does sound like they might have been making the most of the situation. I imagine supermarket shopping will decline dramatically for a while until the panic buyers (most of us in the end) start running out of food.
Lovely the government has worked hard with the banks to organise a mortgage holiday for homeowners and property investors but any such holiday for renters must be negotiated by individual tenants.
The renting class has had a few temporary fences erected but only if they pay full rent while others have temporary cost slashed. Their families’ wellbeing has been discarded as usual. Too hard.
The mortgage holiday is designed to relieve Covid-19 affected homeowners and property investors of outgoings during the six month acute period.
But the government, including Woods just today, made it clear that renters would have no such government organised holiday. She made it clear that tenants were to pay full rent or face the consequences of building debt with landlords.
The thing about the mortgage holiday is that any increased costs accrued by that holiday are spread over the life of the mortgage – easy. But the thing about tenants falling behind in rent over this dramatic period of job loss is that any debt they accrued will be demanded immediately.
What is this caring, worker-focussed government going to do about that?
This is what happens when most MP's own rentals.
I didn't know more than 60 MPs own rentals. Which ones don't?
https://www.parliament.nz/media/5566/summary-report-2019-final.pdf
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2019/05/the-number-of-properties-owned-by-mps-revealed.html
71
https://www.landlords.co.nz/article/976513586/property-investing-popular-with-mps
I find the response by the government, asking tenants to negotiate with landlords, absolutely disgraceful when compared to the response for homeowners, businesses large and small, and across-the-board wages earners.
Full rent for fuck’s sake unless you can negotiate less. Cunts.
Biggest black mark against this government so far (along with the dreadfully poor targeting of Kiwibuild) and you are right, tenants are never thought of in any terms other than second class citizens by the powerful.
We're in the age of peak capitalism – where CGT existed the rates have gone down since the Cold War victory of "democracy". And where some nations cannot now even introduce such a tax – challenge their ruling class (we once had an estate tax in lieu of – ended by RR).
You know who rules over you when they evade taxation on their incomes/capital gains and those on benefits get abated at 90 cents in the dollar (wage levels are kept down by migration).
I am so sad right now. 🙁
The right doesn't have a mortgage on fuckwittery.
Mexico City (CNN)Brazilians have been tricked by the media over a "little flu," according to president Jair Bolsonaro. Families should still go out to eat despite coronavirus fears, says Mexico's president Andres Manuél Lopez Obrador. And Nicaragua's leader Daniel Ortega has all but disappeared, while political marches and rallies continue.
As global leaders race to contain the brutal threat of a growing pandemic, a triumvirate of denial has emerged in Latin America, with the leaders of Brazil, Mexico and Nicaragua downplaying the danger of a looming outbreak.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/24/americas/coronavirus-latin-america-presidents-intl/index.html
Do not do this at home – it is wrong!
https://dailyworld.in/insurance-frauds-landlines-turning-into-land-mines/
They explicitly reject Darwin's theory in favour of young earth creationism.
Testing is to begin.
https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1242468989235867648
Joe90
their actions may prove Darwin’s theory that the less intelligent genes don’t get passed on.