Open mike 25/05/2022

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, May 25th, 2022 - 123 comments
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Open mike is your post.

For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Step up to the mike …

123 comments on “Open mike 25/05/2022 ”

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  1. Jenny how to get there 1
    25 May 2022 at 6:59 am

    Most people haven't realised it yet, but world war three has begun.

    https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Russian-and-Chinese-jets-patrol-East-Asia-skies-as-Biden-visits

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-25/japan-scrambles-jets-response-to-china-russia/101096656

    If Russian expansionism is not defeated in Ukraine. the war there will grow until it draws in more and more countries.

    Depending on the success of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, China will invade Taiwan, Russia will invade Moldova.

    That the new world war will end following a Russian play for Moldova or China's grab for Taiwan, is not probable.

    It’s the consequence of wanting endless growth on a finite planet.

    The hopeful fly in the ointment of this probable scenario of world wide military clash between the superpowers, is if the Russian Federation invading forces are driven out of Ukraine, by the Ukrainian people.

    • Incognito 1.1
      25 May 2022 at 8:14 am

      When people ask me ‘what were you doing when WWIII started?’ I can answer them with ‘I was eating my porridge’, so thank you. Now, let’s kick out that Russian dude in Wellington, yes, and sign the DoW?

    • aom 1.2
      25 May 2022 at 8:23 am

      Just a tad too simplistic and reeking of paranoia Jenny. For WWIII to be averted, there is a need to end another US proxy war in support of its world domination aspirations. It can only be resolved by negotiation as Zelenskiy himself has said. In fact, the Ukraine situation should have been resolved eight years ago with the signing of the Minsk accords and some respect for Russia's right to not be threatened by NATO, which is proving itself to be anything but a defensive arrangement. Once again, the US is controlling the show. To make matters worse, our Government has folded and joined the fray in advance of the main event. So much for our independent foreign policy!

      • Populuxe1 1.2.1
        25 May 2022 at 8:27 am

        and some respect for Russia's right to not be threatened by NATO, which is proving itself to be anything but a defensive arrangement.

        Some actual proof that this is anything other than a delusional feverdream please. What, if anything, has NATO ever done to Russia? I'll wait.

        • Incognito 1.2.1.1
          25 May 2022 at 8:28 am

          Being there?

        • mikesh 1.2.1.2
          25 May 2022 at 9:04 am

          How about supplying some proof that Russia's aims are "expansionist" first.

          • Populuxe1 1.2.1.2.1
            25 May 2022 at 9:31 am

            Crimea? Transnistria? Abkhazia? South Ossetia? Donetsk? Luhansk?
            Why does Putin say that Ukraine is part of Russia? – The Washington Post

            • aom 1.2.1.2.1.1
              25 May 2022 at 10:31 am

              Good to see your evidence is sourced from an organ of record and sometimes propagandist for the chief protagonist of NATO Populuxe1. Ironic that it nails its flag to the mast in the first sentence, ignoring the fact that the Minsk Accords were signed eight years ago. What did you expect of Russia in regard to Crimea, Transnistria, Abkhazia South Ossetia Donetsk and Luhansk, the same strategies as the US has used to create failing states? Usually it seems, Russia responds some form of invitation or majority vote, unlike the protagonist in chief this time. No doubt you will scream that open-mindedness is advocacy for Putin's actions. NO! Your blind support for prolonging a senseless war is the opposite motivation of those who express anti-war contentions.

              • aj …
                25 May 2022 at 12:37 pm

                The USA is at war with itself as well. This latest tragic school shooting just another symptom of the disease. Perhaps Sandy Hook v2 will result in some significant change, but I doubt it. I just cannot imagine the hell families of those involved in this are going through, even though New Zealand has been touched by this gun madness.

                Chris Hedges recent article nails it.

                No Way Out but War

                Permanent war has cannibalized the country. It has created a social, political, and economic morass. Each new military debacle is another nail in the coffin of Pax Americana…..

                The United States, as the near unanimous vote to provide nearly $40 billion in aid to Ukraine illustrates, is trapped in the death spiral of unchecked militarism. No high speed trains. No universal health care. No viable Covid relief program. No respite from 8.3 percent inflation. No infrastructure programs to repair decaying roads and bridges, which require $41.8 billion to fix the 43,586 structurally deficient bridges, on average 68 years old. No forgiveness of $1.7 trillion in student debt. No addressing income inequality. No program to feed the 17 million children who go to bed each night hungry. No rational gun control or curbing of the epidemic of nihilistic violence and mass shootings. No help for the 100,000 Americans who die each year of drug overdoses. No minimum wage of $15 an hour to counter 44 years of wage stagnation. No respite from gas prices that are projected to hit $6 a gallon.

                https://chrishedges.substack.com/p/no-way-out-but-war?s=r

                https://twitter.com/theLasagna/status/1529211766495920128

              • In Vino …
                25 May 2022 at 4:56 pm

                aom – it worries me that as soon as anyone tries to express any kind of understanding of the Russian perspective, they are immediately vilified.

                We are being fed one-sided propaganda. It will quite likely be like Vietnam and Afghanistan. All the corruption and military inefficiency that Russia is currently accused of will probably turn out to be the qualities of those whom we are supporting.

                I suspect that the USA is behind all this, and recent history teaches us that the USA is not very good at learning from recent history.

              • Populuxe1 …
                25 May 2022 at 7:33 pm

                Not really, I'm just curious what the attraction is that you'd willingly play apologist for an ultranationalist klepto-oligarch hellbent on the most blatant example of imperial expansion in the last 80 years.

                • mikesh …
                  26 May 2022 at 12:23 pm

                  I guess he's just doing his job: defending Russia.

                  • Populuxe1 …
                    26 May 2022 at 4:29 pm

                    And who exactly was threatening Russia? Go on, I'll wait. NATO can't because it's a defensive alliance. The EU was buying most of their oil and gas from Russia. The UK government was in the pocket of Russian oligarchs. And the US had moved from "pivot to Asia" to Trump being Putin's best buddy, and then back to "pivot to Asia" again.

              • Populuxe1 …
                25 May 2022 at 7:44 pm

                Blah blah Washington is the Great White Shaitan blah blah blah.
                Change the record, boo – Chomsky wore out that particular LP defending the moral integrity of the Khmer Rouge. I have a sophisticated brain, I can be appalled by both. But frankly I don't think the Ukrainians give tuppence for your mealy-mouthed condescension – it's their sovereignty and their lives they're fighting for, not your spotless hands.

      • tsmithfield 1.2.2
        25 May 2022 at 10:13 am

        There is only one country invading another country at the moment. And only one with the objective of restoring the previous Soviet Union.

        So, who again is the aggressor and who is defending?

          • tsmithfield 1.2.2.1.1
            25 May 2022 at 1:43 pm

            There seems to be a notable exception on that map in that Ukraine and Russia don't show on it as being at war. Is that because Russia is conducting a "Special Military Operation'', not a war?

            • KJT 1.2.2.1.1.1
              25 May 2022 at 1:46 pm

              Possibly.

              Though the article attached is mostly about Ukraine.

            • KJT 1.2.2.1.1.2
              25 May 2022 at 2:09 pm

              Most of these are down as "internal conflicts" and "insurrection".

              The exercise of how many are actually proxy wars, invasions caused by external countries, is illuminating.

            • Belladonna 1.2.2.1.1.3
              25 May 2022 at 2:19 pm

              Also doesn't include China, and whatever is going on with the Uyghur peoples in the northwest (which probably feels pretty much like a war to those involved)

            • lprent 1.2.2.1.1.4
              25 May 2022 at 3:07 pm

              It is a somewhat annoying that Russia has usurped a mandate of the UN by unilaterally proclaiming a SMO, without getting votes from the UN.

              I guess that they anticipated that they wouldn't get it passed with their current war of invasion and annexation.

              Not to mention their soldiers historical habit of rapes, murders, and thieving from civilians, plus atrocities like deliberately targeting civilian structures having yet another chapter.

              The Russian army are pretty damn useless at being anything apart from a pretty typical barbarian horde. No discipline, lousy logistics, incompetent officers, and no competent NCOs makes for a piss-poor military. They have just spent the last 4 months proving it.

              • weston …
                25 May 2022 at 10:41 pm

                " Pretty useless military etc Heck you let them off lightly didnt you lyn ?As well as the typical barbarian horde , with no discipline ,lousy logistics ,incompetent officers and no competent NCO's you could have added cant fly their planes ,they're running out of missiles ,they use open communications ,they cant read a map etc etc etc golly its a wonder they know how to start their vehicles or figure out which end of their guns are which ??

                How do you explain this supposedly hopeless bunch defeating comprehensively the best part of the ukraine military in Mariupol then ?or the fact that they and their allies are on the cusp of taking the entire donbass ? This despite the fact that America/Nato is pouring in arms and cash like theres no tomorrow, plus providing intelligence and training ?

                Call me stupid if you wish but it strikes me as illogical the thought process that makes all these claims of aggression but at the same time bemoans the speed of which the war is proceeding ?

                • lprent …
                  27 May 2022 at 4:25 pm

                  How do you explain this supposedly hopeless bunch defeating comprehensively the best part of the ukraine military in Mariupol..

                  Seems pretty obvious. Surprise attack, overwhelming force from the close borders of the DNR allowed a partial encirclement within days, encirclement amphibious landings on the other side, encirclement completed with fast moving columns, complete air, naval and artillery superiority compared to the defenders of Mariupol.

                  That happened within a few days of the attack. Textbook fast surprise attack. Partial encirclement happened 4 days after Russia invaded in their undeclared war against Ukraine. Complete encirclement happened a few days later… wikipedia


                  The battle, which was part of the Russian Eastern Ukraine offensive, started on 24 February 2022 and concluded on 20 May 2022, when Russia announced the remaining Ukrainian forces in Mariupol surrendered[2] after they were ordered to cease fighting.[59]

                  However it then took the Russian forces 3 months to complete the task. What were they doing? Mutual arse rimming?

                  The only thing that they did after that as far as anyone could see was to deliberately attack civilians and the building they were sheltering in with artillery and bombing from their local air superiority. Plus apparently feeding in hapless conscripts from the DPR in for assaults as cannon fodder.

                  Probably while the Russian troops around the city were raping, murdering and pillaging the surrounding country side if they followed their pattern further north.

                  A quite small Ukrainian battalion managed to tie down a very large set of Russian forces for months.

                  Some western analysts called the result of the battle a "pyrrhic" or "mostly symbolic" victory and "reputational disaster" for Russia, after the complete destruction of the city, and a tactical defeat but strategic win for Ukrainian forces, which successfully tied up multiple Russian battalion tactical groups for months.[72][73][74][75][3] Others considered it a significant defeat for Ukraine.[76]

                  I'm with the pyrrhic victory group. That is what I call a completely hopeless military fuck up – probably because they let a military amateur (Putin) call the shots and he did a Hitler military ineptitude impersonation.

                  BTGs aren't something that you want wasted doing fuck all during an invasion.

                  It would be hard to find modern historical (ie 20th and 21st century) sieges to match it. So few holding down such a lot of prime invading troops with a complete encirclement and complete military inferiority for so long.

                  Incidentally I haven't found any military site who thinks it was a 'significant 'defeat – and the link for that statement in the quote shows no signs of a claim for it. Mariupol was lost as soon as it was encircled

                  It isn't even a strategic defeat as long as the Russian fleet in the Black Sea maintains a blockade. It isn't like the hinterland can send economic goods to go out of the port. At present Mariupol has a damaged port, bad transport links, and is pretty useless fro the Russians without a large immediate investment and peace. It is also too close to the front lines.

                  I suppose that you'd think that these Russian actions were smart, brave, and the actions of a competent military? Sounds like your intellectual ability is somewhat lacking, and probably your moral compass is a bit distorted as well.

              • Joe90 …
                26 May 2022 at 4:26 am

                The Russian army are pretty damn useless at being anything apart from a pretty typical barbarian horde.

                And shitting. The Russian army is pretty damn good at shitting.
                https://twitter.com/OTregub/status/1522545914711355393
                https://twitter.com/timgrecco/status/1522684632118013953

                • weston …
                  26 May 2022 at 11:52 am

                  On the subject of " Shit " i dont take any of this sort of stuff that seriously ,untill such time as a journalist i trust has verified it it just remains as shit to me you know the kind you throw around liberally when you want to smear someones character .This war has produced a tsunami of propaganda of stupendous proportions and obviously there's a lot of money and effort going into it .

                  Speaking of ordinary shit ,did you ' shit the bed ' this morn joe
                  ?

        • weston 1.2.2.2
          25 May 2022 at 5:02 pm

          "Objective of restoring the soviet union etc ,such a hackneyed phase and number one or two on the list of propaganda favorites so overused and beloved by state dept and MSm .Repeating it like a parrot wont make it any more factual unless as in America you want to believe your own lies !

          Putin is on record as saying " He who doesnt miss the soviet union has no heart he who wants it back has no brain "

          Whateva you think of Putin he's no fool and i doubt he suffers them either .

        • mikesh 1.2.2.3
          26 May 2022 at 12:28 pm

          The USA is the aggressor, Russia is the defender. The Ukraine would not be doing what they are doing without Uncle Sam's support and encouragement.

      • Jenny how to get there 1.2.3
        25 May 2022 at 9:13 pm

        aom

        25 May 2022 at 8:23 am

        …..For WWIII to be averted, there is a need to end another US proxy war….

        It won't remain a 'proxy' war for very long, aom if the Russian Federation continues its imperialist expansion and conquest into Moldova.

        Speaking of the RAF's defence of Great Britain, Churichill, said, "Never before in the field of human conflict have so many owed so much to to so few."

        I think the RAF are about to be outdone.

        If the people and armed forces of Ukraine can put a stop to the Russian imperialist aggressor invading their country, and successfully drive the Russian Federation forces back to their own borders, then they will have stopped World War III.

        Not tens of millions, but hundreds of millions of people the world over will owe the people of Ukraine a debt of gratitude.

    • left for dead 1.3
      25 May 2022 at 9:26 am

      JHtGT + .Stop CATASTROPHIZING ..

    • tsmithfield 1.4
      25 May 2022 at 9:44 am

      Peter Zeihan discussed the prospect of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

      There are some good reasons why China might give it a crack. But also some very compelling reasons why they wouldn't.

      Firstly, the military challenges:

      • Taiwan is a much more advanced military than Ukraine, and has been preparing for this war for decades.
      • The terrain of Taiwan is largely mountainous and there are only a few suitable places to land troops which means there would be high attrition on landing troops.
      • Many small Taiwanese Islands have anti-ship missiles on them between China and Taiwan.
      • Logistics across the water is much more difficult to maintain than across land.
      • It has become clear to China, from observing the Ukraine conflict, that this sort of mission is no easy task, and will be much more difficult for them with Taiwan.
      • The strategic ambiguity of whether the US will get involved or not.

      Secondly, economic challenges:

      • Similar sanctions applied to China as those placed on Russia would be much more devastating for the Chinese due to their high reliance on external imports.
      • The ease of blockading shipping going in and out of China would cause mass starvation in China.
      • An exodus of Western companies from China similar to Russia would be devastating for the Chinese economy.
      • Easy to cut off China's energy supplies. For instance, a couple of well placed missiles on the gas lines running between Russia and China along with a blockade of oil tankers would quickly have China grinding to a halt.

      Taking all this together, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan doesn't really make sense. Then again, if they are going to do it, now is probably the best time. Zeihan rates a Chinese invasion of Taiwan about a 30% chance.

      Some people see Biden’s “mis-speak” the other day about the US defending Taiwan as another senior moment that the US had to walk back.

      However, I don’t see it that way. I understand that Biden has given the same answer on two previous occasions prior to this. So, I think it might represent American strategy. But, the state department walking the statement back adds to the strategic ambiguity of the possibility.

      The takeaway for the Chinese from this is that there is a strong possibility the US would get involved which may be the strategy of the messaging.

  2. Blade 2
    25 May 2022 at 8:34 am

    When Michael Laws was a talkback host he used to say disparaging things about some politicians based on his experiences as a member of Parliament.

    One recipient of his considered opinion was Nanaia Mahuta.

    At least Mahuta was upfront and didn't try to spin this latest government crisis.

    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2022/05/foreign-affairs-minister-nanaia-mahuta-hasn-t-directly-spoken-with-nz-s-ambassador-to-russia-since-ukraine-invasion-began.html

    This sad state of affairs again points to a government that has problems dealing with the ramifications of reality. Their focus for problem solving is more based on internal perceptions guided by ideology.

    [lprent: You managed to drop the ‘l’ in .html. That is why the link didn’t work. Perhaps you should look to your own stupidity and lack of care before levelling accusations at the site – and wasting my time. ]

    • KJT 2.1
      25 May 2022 at 8:57 am

      Someone who takes Micheal Laws seriously! Seriously?

      Tells me all I need to know about your perceptions of reality.

    • AB 2.2
      25 May 2022 at 9:28 am

      The link doesn't work so I can't read the story. But it's Newshub – so it really doesn't matter. Perhaps Mahuta has spoken to her advisors who have spoken to the ambassador? Could that be the reason for the sneaky insertion of the word "directly" in the faux sensationalist headline?

      There are a couple of legitimate questions one could ask of Mahuta. Has she sought the opinion of the ambassador on:

      • whether NZ's increasing support of Ukraine (e.g. military training) poses any risks to NZ'ers living in Russia?
      • how would the expulsion of the Russian ambassador from NZ be perceived in the Kremlin and would it make his consulate duties harder to perform?

      But Newshub is too lazy, stupid and partisan to ask these questions. They have no interest in reality, instead they are instead obsessed with making accusations of personal incompetence against Labour ministers to help get their favourite party elected in 2023. And the clowns who watch their tripe and regurgitate their nonsense are no better.

      • Blade 2.2.1
        25 May 2022 at 9:45 am

        The link works fine…except on this site for some reason. Just copy it and paste.

        ''Whether NZ's increasing support of Ukraine (e.g. military training) poses any risks to NZ'ers living in Russia.''

        Well, there you have it…and why Mahuta should have been demanding an update everyday. But, she seems to have been missing in action.

        ''And the clowns who watch their tripe and regurgitate their nonsense are no better.''

        Meaning me. You may not realise it, but comments like that just confirm what voters are waking up to… Labour and it's supporters create their own reality.

        • AB 2.2.1.2
          25 May 2022 at 11:31 am

          Mate – if you think that Mahuta speaking "directly" to the ambassador or requiring daily updates will make any difference to anything material, you are dreaming. That's not how the world works. You have bought into the myth that a specific, narrow sort of personal competence is the supreme driver of good outcomes rather than deep institutional knowledge and collaboration. Newshub is out for a scalp, that's why they emphasise such trivial and peripheral things. However, apologies for using the 'clown' word, it was uncalled for.

          • Belladonna 2.2.1.2.1
            25 May 2022 at 11:40 am

            Are you confusing the Russian ambassador in NZ with the NZ one in Russia?

            It's the latter (i.e. a member of her Department) that Mahuta hasn't talked to.

            And, I have to agree, that it's surprising.

            Reading reports doesn't give you everything (assuming she has – her quote didn't cover this); actually talking to people on the ground gives a more rounded picture. And that's how you benefit from the the 'deep knowledge'.

        • lprent 2.2.1.3
          25 May 2022 at 3:14 pm

          See my note above. Try blaming your incompetence rather than the sites’ code.

          Occam's razor…

    • JO 2.3
      25 May 2022 at 1:02 pm

      The disingenuous finesse of your selection from that report is impressive. Who'd have known without reading it that brave Gerry Brownlie has accused the Minister of not doing her job, and there's a handy parrot quote from Winston Peters.

      They have both been Minister of Foreign Affairs. In spite of the blustering they would know Minister Mahuta's response was correct. She is also vastly more measured and thoughtful than either of them.
      From the linked article :

      Winston Peters and National's Gerry Brownlee is are shocked.

      The Foreign Affairs Minister has had no direct communication with New Zealand's Ambassador to Russia or our Embassy in Moscow since the Ukraine invasion began.

      But she has said communications are normally through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

      National's Gerry Brownlee asked Nanaia Mahuta in a Written Parliamentary Question what communication she has had with either the Ambassador or the Embassy since Russia invaded Ukraine in late February.

      "I have not communicated directly with the New Zealand Ambassador or Embassy in Russia since Russia's invasion of Ukraine," Mahuta replied last week.

      "Such communications would normally be with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade."

      Former Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters is also shocked. He told Newshub the minister should be making contact with the embassy given the magnitude of the events taking place there.

      "It is utterly extraordinary…

      • Belladonna 2.3.1
        25 May 2022 at 2:22 pm

        So why is Mahuta's response (i.e. that she hasn't spoken to the NZ ambassador in Russia) correct?

        Yes normally it would be through the department. But, hey, there’s an international crisis going on, involving that country.

        It seems utterly out-of-touch to me!

        • In Vino 2.3.1.1
          25 May 2022 at 5:09 pm

          Because our poor little ambassador in Russia is probably isolated because of NZ's stance, and has nothing to say.

          If that ambassador had any information important for NZ, you should be sure that the said ambassador would have communicated in some way.

          Maybe you are the one who is out-of-touch.

          • Belladonna 2.3.1.1.1
            25 May 2022 at 7:10 pm

            In which case, there is little point in her being there…..

            You can't have it both ways. Either she's effective enough to be a useful resource for Kiwis who are in Russia (the stated reason for not recalling her) – in which case she has potentially valuable insights to offer Mahuta; or she's so isolated that she's completely ineffectual (thus no insights) and we might as well recall her.

              • Belladonna …
                25 May 2022 at 8:38 pm

                Thank you, yes.

                However, I was questioning why Mahuta hasn't talked to our Ambassador in Russia – not advocating for the expulsion of the Russian ambassador from NZ.

                FWIW, I generally believe that keeping communication channels open is a better idea. Although it's difficult to know when the boundary has been reached, and you're giving legitimacy to a corrupt regime…

                • Incognito …
                  25 May 2022 at 9:05 pm

                  I understood that.

                  I cannot answer your question; it doesn’t mean there has been no contact between MFAT and the NZ Embassy in Russia.

                  BTW, I find it quite laughable that both Brownlee and Peters are trying to tell Mahuta how to do her job – are they mentoring her through the media?

                  A corrupt regime still is a regime in power.

                  • Belladonna …
                    25 May 2022 at 9:26 pm

                    Yep, I agree. Was thinking of the Fijian High Commissioner, who IIRC, was expelled after the coup.
                    [Though that may have been in response to our one being kicked out first – long time ago, and memory is a bit fuzzy]

  3. Jester 3
    25 May 2022 at 9:26 am

    Does Poto Williams still reject the premise of the question that gang violence has escalated?

    Auckland shootings: 'Indiscriminate and reckless' use of guns in public says police after seven incidents overnight – NZ Herald

    • Blade 3.1
      25 May 2022 at 10:11 am

      Poto is finished as the Police Minister. She will be moved on when Jacinda does a reshuffle. Or Poto may be one of a handful of Labour Ministers who exit parliament before the next election.

      But it's the Police Commissioner who should be the focus of attention. I'm still not hearing from National the words: ''National has no confidence in the Police Commissioner.''

      And then there's this from Luxon:

      ''When asked whether the gang unit would be similar to Strike Force Raptor, Luxon said that was "kind of" what he was talking about.

      However, Luxon stopped short of saying the unit would be permanently armed, instead saying officers would need easy access.''

      https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2022/05/christopher-luxon-calls-for-strike-force-raptor-style-gang-unit-to-address-rise-in-violent-crime.html

      Luxon isn't getting it. We don't want woke. Arm the police. Start shooting scumbags until they get the message. The public are over crime. What doesn't he understand??

      • roy cartland 3.1.1
        25 May 2022 at 10:19 am

        There, there Duterte.

        • Blade 3.1.1.1
          25 May 2022 at 1:08 pm

          Of course, scumbags must be given a chance to surrender. But if they don't, or instigate violence towards the police – shoot them. It ain't rocket science, except maybe to you and Labour.. and dare I say, National.

          • Incognito 3.1.1.1.1
            25 May 2022 at 2:25 pm

            We have the AOS. Obviously, shooting them would save so much money on lengthy expensive trials and on lengthy expensive prison terms and would remove any danger of them committing a crime ever again. This solution is so marvelous I’d call it a silver bullet. Should be very popular in South Auckland, me thinks.

            • aj 3.1.1.1.1.1
              25 May 2022 at 2:40 pm

              This solution is so marvelous I’d call it a silver bullet.

              Hard On Crime has worked so well in the USA

              no

              • Incognito …
                25 May 2022 at 2:59 pm

                That’s why they have the best prison system in the whole free wide world with super-high incarceration rates and capital punishment, of course, but say no to abortion, which is a crime in itself.

                  • Incognito …
                    25 May 2022 at 3:22 pm

                    White-collar crime is not a real crime, of course, just a sub-optimal ROI and a huge clerical misunderstanding and/or miscommunication (aka getting caught). CEOs have so much on their minds that they have to rely on junior emotional staffers and the likes. Real crims don’t donate money to politicians – it is Robin Hood irony to steal from law-abiding citizens (aka Taxpayers) to give to politicians (aka lawmakers) who are paid by the Taxpayers.

            • Blade 3.1.1.1.1.2
              26 May 2022 at 9:03 am

              The AOS squad is not a dedicated unit.

              https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armed_Offenders_Squad

              Raptor Squad is.

              Google:

              ''Strike Force Raptor was formed to conduct intelligence-based, high-impact policing operations to prevent and dismantle organised criminal networks, including outlaw motorcycle gangs. It became a standalone unit within the State Crime Command in March and now has 115 staff.''

              You are right, a hard line would be very popular in South Auckland. Innocent dairy owners wouldn't fear for their lives as they work hard to make meagre profits without joining the Winz line. Parents wouldn't worry that their children may end up in the wrong part of town, wearing the wrong coloured clothes. People wouldn't fear waking up at night to an intruder in their home who'll give them the bash just for good measure.

              I make no apologies for being in the victims corner. And if things don't improve I will support vigilante action. That's something no one wants. But when the state has been negligent with it's most sacred duty – protection of its people from internal and external threats, then the populace must protect themselves.

              • Incognito …
                26 May 2022 at 9:30 am

                Wow! The fear factor is strong with you.

                Anyway, not everyone in those communities is enamoured with armed cops, e.g. https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/04/most-m-ori-and-pasifika-don-t-feel-safe-with-police-armed-response-teams-out-and-about-survey.html

                Arming Police and shooting the bastards is the only viable solution, of course, how could anyone doubt that.

                You do come across as a self-righteous zealot and one of those self-appointed and self-proclaimed common law sheriffs and I hope the authorities and NZ Police keep an eye on you to protect us all.

                • Blade …
                  26 May 2022 at 9:59 am

                  Seems your bubble of perception dims by the day.

                  ''Most Māori and Pasifika don't feel safe with police Armed Response Teams out and about – survey.'

                  I wonder why? Could it be they are committing the most crimes? And, if so, would that not suggest they are going to come into contact with armed police should they commit violent crimes with weapons?

                  ''Arming Police and shooting the bastards is the only viable solution, of course, how could anyone doubt that.''

                  Let's just concentrate on arming the police. According to Luxon,75% of police now want to be armed. Not long ago it was over 60%. Obviously you are missing something…unless you know better than frontline staff? Why do they want to be armed? Unfortunately, you don't listen to talkback so you haven't heard their stories.

                  ''You do come across as a self-righteous zealot and one of those self-appointed and self-proclaimed common law sheriffs and I hope the authorities and NZ Police keep an eye on you to protect us all.''

                  That's just crazy stuff. I'm sure you are just having a little fun.

                  • Incognito …
                    26 May 2022 at 10:20 am

                    It is quite simple, isn’t it, don’t commit a crime and you’ll be fine.

                    You were previously talking about kids ending up in the wrong part of town, wearing the wrong coloured clothes and intruders bashing house occupants “for good measure”, whatever that means. Are those the “violent crimes with weapons” that not only justify arming cops but make it necessary, allegedly? Just asking, for a friend in South Auckland.

                    Indeed, let’s ask Police what they want because they’re the only so-called stakeholders that matter. Talk-back is where you get your opinions from? You have my sympathy and I suggest to tone it down and lower your intake of brain-washing fear-mongering crap.

                    https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/mediawatch/audio/2018806015/media-ramp-up-angst-over-arming-police

                    That's just crazy stuff. I'm sure you are just having a little fun.

                    Nope! Are you seeing this ‘a little fun’? Do you deny that there are people in this country who wear that title with pride convinced that they’re doing the absolute right thing in and by helping the populace to protect themselves? People who see this as their duty and calling? You stepped up to the plate, so own it.

                    • Blade …
                      26 May 2022 at 10:44 am

                      Nope! Are you seeing this ‘a little fun’?

                      I was hoping you would have said this paragraph (below)you wrote contained a little sarcasm and facetiousness. That you were serious tells me we are wasting each others time debating. It's best we wait until after Labour gets the boot at the next election, then pick this thread up again. That way there can be no ideological spin. The voters will have spoken. Reality will reign.

                      ''You do come across as a self-righteous zealot and one of those self-appointed and self-proclaimed common law sheriffs and I hope the authorities and NZ Police keep an eye on you to protect us all.''

                    • Incognito []
                      26 May 2022 at 11:01 am

                      So, one of us is doing a runner after nailing his colours to the mast and not liking and being able to handle the reaction he got – try one of those other blogs.

                      Calling for vigilante justice is not just “ideological spin” but much more serious.

                      It’s best we wait until after Labour gets the boot at the next election, then pick this thread up again. That way there can be no ideological spin. The voters will have spoken. Reality will reign.

                      You’re again showing your agenda and dangerous dogmatic belief. My own belief is growing that I did the right thing last time I banned you for 10 days for your racist opinion masquerading as fact – the ban ended only 2 days ago! Not only the authorities but also I will have to keep a watchful eye on you.

                    • Blade …
                      26 May 2022 at 11:09 am

                      ''Calling for vigilante justice is not just “ideological spin” but much more serious.''

                      That's why we can't debate.

                    • Incognito []
                      26 May 2022 at 11:22 am

                      I can, you cannot. You called (for) it. I called it as I see it and called you out and you have not given one single counter-argument and are just running away. You’ll make a good little deputy sheriff with your intimidating uniform with strong symbolism and other paraphernalia, including weapons.

              • Incognito …
                26 May 2022 at 9:38 am

                Raptor is not suited for dealing with a young hooligan robbing a dairy for cigarettes. But let’s shoot the little bastard anyway with overwhelming and intelligence-based fire power. He (most likely a he/him) was an unemployed no-hoper and bottom-feeder anyway.

      • aom 3.1.2
        25 May 2022 at 10:42 am

        Two gangs at war should be right up your alley Blade. Serious violence that doesn't seem to end up with innocent bystanders or associates being killed. It seems there is more chance of deaths when armed Police are involved. /(sarc)

      • KJT 3.1.3
        25 May 2022 at 10:48 am

        You, and National, seem determined to continue what hasn't worked anywhere in the past.

        Seems there is a consistent pattern of ignoring evidence here.

        • Belladonna 3.1.3.1
          25 May 2022 at 2:27 pm

          I'm more concerned about what is demonstrably not working in the present.

          Perfectly open to suggestions other than arming the police – lay them on.

          However, I don't think ostrich-head-in-the-sand saying there isn't a problem, is really going to fly, as a strategy.

          • KJT 3.1.3.1.1
            25 May 2022 at 2:53 pm

            What works?

            KJT. Random musings on all sorts of things.: On Reducing Crime. (kjt-kt.blogspot.com)

            And.

            What works – publications | New Zealand Ministry of Justice

            And.

            Growing boys into good men – New Zealand News – NZ Herald

            And.

            List of youth justice articles | Youth Court of New Zealand

            Overseas.

            Why are there so few prisoners in the Netherlands? | World news | The Guardian

            Plenty more where they came from.

            You will note that more arms for police, tougher sentences or more police powers, are absent from evidence based approaches to reducing crime.

            If you don't want youngsters joining gangs. Give them better options.

            If you don't want crims from Oz causing mayhem. Help them join society.

          • KJT 3.1.3.1.2
            25 May 2022 at 3:09 pm

            Many right wing types I know claim "perception is reality".

            Being a seafarer, I know that "perception" doesn't mean shit, when reality hits.

            The problem is politicians and their synchopathic media who cynically massage "perceptions" to retain power.

            Which leads to "solutions" that their polling shows appeals to swing voters. And exaggeration of crime threats, to scare voters their way. It is obvious a majority of swing voters have bought into the "tough on crime perception, that cynical politicians perpetuate. A climate of fear usually benefits conservatives.

            They know for a fact that their approaches don't work. Even Bill English let slip that "Prisons are a moral and fiscal failure". Unfortunately bullshitting voters about crime, gets them more swing voters.

            The fact that almost all Right Wing policies increase crime, is rarely bought up.

          • KJT 3.1.3.1.3
            25 May 2022 at 3:22 pm

            “Sober and reasonable media reports”
            “no use of “fear of crime” as a populist theme”.

            Sian Elias.

            "What might be entailed in gaining such acceptance is illustrated by the effort in
            Finland discussed in About Time to reduce the number of prison inmates.12 Key
            factors identified in the considerable success of the strategy were:
            · Clear expert understandings of the criminology basis behind the policy
            changes, both in government and in the public service
            · A political accord, maintained across the 20 year period of the
            reduction that it was necessary and that there would be no use of “fear
            of crime” as a populist theme
            · Sober and reasonable media reports of crime stories
            · A strategy both of reducing sentence lengths and reducing the range
            of crimes resulting in imprisonment
            · The support of the public, which was attributed not only to the political
            accord and the news media restraint but to regular public education
            pieces about the limited crime reduction gains to be had from
            imprisonment
            · A range of crime control strategies beyond the core justice sector,
            including education, social welfare and youth justice."

      • Ad 3.1.4
        25 May 2022 at 10:53 am

        Agreed Poto Williams is fucking useless.

        We get regularly smashed on social media and in talkback radio on crime.

        OMG we are so overdue a Cabinet reshuffle.

        • Poission 3.1.4.1
          25 May 2022 at 11:05 am

          The minister of police,is limited on what strategy the police use.The minister can only make policy,and provide funding.

          When the Police moved to harder lines,members of the great awokening called it biased and discriminatory against these social clubs.

          The gangland murders in Sydney have seen the raptor units become high profile as they implemented mass arrests and as the NSW commissioner said they cut the head of the snakes.

          https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-25/sydney-crime-network-dismantled-after-raids-across-city/13897822

          • Ad 3.1.4.1.1
            25 May 2022 at 3:28 pm

            In reality you can now make that "separation of powers" claim to nearly all large operational entities within the state – even when Police have a specific warrant. It's just that the separation is provided by corporate Boards.

            The Police Commissioner is regularly held to account by the Minister of Police.

            And we hold to account the Minister for their performance.

            • Poission 3.1.4.1.1.1
              25 May 2022 at 3:45 pm

              There is already a large funded operation on gang crime to commence in June,if it makes a difference or not is an open problem.

              Communities have the right to feel safe in their homes and on the streets,and public displays of offensive behaviour during rallys,only contribute to their legend.

              The police need to micro manage the gangs,with penalties for minor infringements,impounding of vehicles for unlicensed drivers,probation checks,and general intimidation of the gangs.

              • KJT …
                25 May 2022 at 3:54 pm

                Because harassment makes people less likely to get pissed off, and commit crimes?

                • Poission …
                  25 May 2022 at 3:59 pm

                  With no license and no vehicle,they are less likely to commit crimes on the number 11 bus.

                  Remove mobility is a constraint.

                  • KJT …
                    25 May 2022 at 4:09 pm

                    Just given a whole lot of references. You know, evidence, that "tough on crime" doesn't work.

                    And that impoverishing people doesn't work.

                    You may try reading them?

                    • Poission …
                      25 May 2022 at 4:20 pm

                      They are not impoverished people,they are modern day slavers impoverishing and enslaving communities with addictive drugs,violence and intimidation.

                      When you find IED's and semi automatic weapons that they are using they are on the boundary of organized crime and organized terrorism.

                    • Ad …
                      25 May 2022 at 4:39 pm

                      You should read the better evidence on toe tags at the morgue. In 2021 west Auckland where I live had 8 deaths from shootings, much of it gang related, across 6 months.

                      The growth of criminal gangs under Labour's government is well attested in Select Committee.

                      It does of course have a lot to do with the Australian 501 Deportation policy which Ardern has advocated for. But that hasn't worked in a decade – so it's well time that the Minister of Police was held to account.

                      There are more and more neighbourhoods in Auckland where people simply refuse to go. This is not the city country we should have.

                    • KJT …
                      25 May 2022 at 6:51 pm

                      Where do you think gangs get their recruits from? The upper middle class?

      • Jester 3.1.5
        25 May 2022 at 12:00 pm

        Yes I think in the next cabinet re-shuffle, there is not much chance of Poto staying as police minister.

      • left for dead 3.1.6
        27 May 2022 at 8:21 am

        Blade,I just hope you don't have your hand on it while you say such things.

    • AB 3.2
      25 May 2022 at 11:02 am

      Escalation is either a fact or not depending on the time period over which you measure it. Gang violence clearly escalated since yesterday, no doubt. And it's possible that there is a trend that is durable enough to call a real escalation rather than a calculated law and order scare. When that's demonstrable Williams should say so, and at least have some plausible ideas about cause, mitigation and prevention. But someone who thinks that any of those three things is simple, and the solution is permanently armed police shooting people, needs to be kept well away from power.

      • Belladonna 3.2.1
        25 May 2022 at 11:34 am

        I think it would be very difficult to argue that violent crime has not escalated – regardless of what timeline you use.

        Williams seems to have zero idea of just how ineffective she is appearing.

        Regardless of the reasons for the escalation (and, I agree, some of them are outside her control) – she and the police commissioner have to deal with the reality now.

        • Peter 3.2.1.1
          25 May 2022 at 12:21 pm

          And the reality is that the world is full of reactive idiots. If Chris Bishop's mates were as successful as he thinks Williams should be, there wouldn't be a gang problem. Hell they'd have a Minister of Finance who'd introduce a marvellous budget to change the basic things, which establish social conditions, like:

          "The budget cut spending on many of the welfare state institutions established in the 1930s by the First Labour Government. The unemployment benefit was cut by $14.00 a week, sickness benefit by $27.04, families benefit by $25.00 to $27.00 and universal payments for family benefits were completely abolished. Richardson also introduced many user pays requirements in hospitals and schools, services previously free to the populace and paid for by the government. Public services such as state housing were devolved essentially into companies under government contract in all but name."

          Hell, social conditions would be so much better if we'd had a Budget like that 31 years (a generation) ago. Things would be so much better if whenever Labour people got forthright about Australia exporting its criminals we told them to STFU, stop interfering with Australia's politics.

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mother_of_all_Budgets

          • Belladonna 3.2.1.1.1
            25 May 2022 at 1:28 pm

            Do you think Williams is coming across as an effective police minister?

            Perception is reality in politics…..

            Whaddaboutism, is just as ineffective when the Left do it.

            • Craig H 3.2.1.1.1.1
              25 May 2022 at 3:24 pm

              How would a replacement appear any more effective? Replacement ministers will be affected by the same legal restrictions on the commissioner, so what is their legal avenue to appearance of effectiveness?

              • Ad …
                25 May 2022 at 4:41 pm

                A replacement would appear more effective if they delivered better results against violent gangs with measurably decreased gun crime in New Zealand.

                The current Minister of Police needs to be fired.

                • Craig H …
                  26 May 2022 at 1:21 pm

                  Since the Commissioner is statutorily independent of ministers with respect to operational policing decisions, as in is required not to take any notice of them on these matters (as opposed to taking direction or advice from ministers), how would any change of Police Minister make any impact on those things?

                  The Commissioner could equally tell the new minister or even the Prime Minister where the door is, and there would be no come back or ability to do anything about it for the government at all. Absolutely 0.

                  • Ad …
                    26 May 2022 at 1:58 pm

                    That is such a misreading of the modern NZ state.

                    Almost all major government operational entities are separated by Boards now (That even applies in the nationalised health, which is in reality a set of contracts).

                    So Ministerial influence is through a set of performance metrics, Letters of Expectation, SOIs, budget lines, and appointments, for pretty much everything. Including Police.

                    Here's a really simple illustration of what a change in Minister makes: Twyford to Woods.

            • In Vino 3.2.1.1.1.2
              25 May 2022 at 5:14 pm

              Is that you, Chairman?

              • Incognito …
                25 May 2022 at 5:39 pm

                No, it is not angry

                • In Vino …
                  25 May 2022 at 8:24 pm

                  OK, I withdraw.

                  • Incognito …
                    25 May 2022 at 8:38 pm

                    I certainly keep an eye on users using different aliases (aka sockpoppets or astroturfers), especially when a commenter has been banned recently, and I usually stomp on it straightaway. TC did have a run-in with me 10 days ago and has not been seen since most likely because I put him in Pre-Moderation and he couldn’t be bothered responding. However, TC has not been banned and his MO and idiosyncrasies are quite different.

  4. pat 4
    25 May 2022 at 11:20 am

    "With economies stumbling, the cost of living rising at rates not seen in forty years, and world markets gripped by nervousness, there are two ways in which we can try to make sense of current economic turbulence.

    We can, if we wish, see all of this as temporary – caused by the lasting effects of the pandemic, latterly compounded by the war in Ukraine – and assure ourselves that the ‘normality’ of continuous economic “growth” will return once these crises are behind us.

    The alternative is to face facts."

    https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2022/05/21/229-in-the-eye-of-the-perfect-storm-2/

  5. Poission 5
    25 May 2022 at 2:18 pm

    RBNZ confirms signalling,and raises ocr to 2%.In a number of hard statements it raised the forecast levels to 3.4% by year end,and 3.9% june 2023.

    7% mortgages coming,and over 8% next year unless inflation expectations wane significantly.

    Fast moving year for the Acronyms

    FOMO (fear of missing out) replaced by FOPTM (Fear of paying too much) replaced by FOFC (fear of foreclosure)

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/128749166/reserve-bank-hikes-official-cash-rate-to-2

  7. Ad 7
    25 May 2022 at 4:42 pm

    Does anyone have a read on Green Caucus support for Gharaman's electoral reform Private Members Bill?

    The vox pop against it on RNZ has been hilarously huge.

  8. Grafton Gully 8
    25 May 2022 at 5:23 pm

    The budget, coastal shipping announcement and news items on the PM's USA visit and the new Albanese government have lifted my heart – even feeling embarrassed and sorry for Luxon – wtf does he even mean with "lost formation" why not just say "the Ardern government lacks financial discipline" then maybe I'd pay more attention. https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/467814/ocr-luxon-accuses-govt-of-lost-formation-on-financial-discipline

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