That’s the article I tried to link to. I don’t see a problem with Vance’s article. Will fix the link.
Except maybe Vance’s accentuating the overseas links for the 5 bios at the bottom. I would like to have known who the other top 20 MPs are on the list.
Take a critical look at what she says about the candidates – do you really think the way she has described them is ok?
“FIVE ON THE RISE IN NEW-LOOK GREEN LIST
GARETH HUGHES, 32. Oceans spokesman and baby-faced father of two. Has led public campaigns opposing deep-sea oil-drilling. Was once arrested while chained to a fence dressed as Ronald McDonald, protested the use of genetically modified ingredients in fast food.
JULIE ANNE GENTER, 34. US-born, grew up in Los Angeles before moving to Auckland to become a transport planner. The party’s candidate for the key Epsom seat. Says she’s “into lively streets, real food and bicycles”.
MOJO MATHERS, 47. London-born, the country’s first deaf MP. The mother-of-three was named after the song “Got my Mojo Working”.
JAMES SHAW, 41. Business consultant specialising in sustainable development. Stood as a list candidate while still living in London in 2008 to campaign for the expatriate vote. In 2011, dressed as the Green Lantern for a campaign fundraiser.
EUGENIE SAGE, 56. Once a press secretary to then-housing minister Helen Clark. Calls herself a “green greenie” and party members liken her to former leader Jeanette Fitzsimons. Was a sacked Environment Canterbury regional councillor.”
and my take wd be:..(from observations made doing commentaries on q-time in parliament for far longer than i should have..)
hughes:..cursed with a baby-face..which stalls impressions of gravitas..(but which..as a fellow baby-facer.. i can tell him he will be grateful for as he gets older..as all around him wrinkle..that is the good news..)
..i have never ever seen him really fire in parliament..(maybe he has yet to hit his stride..)
..and i see that at some stage delahunty seduced him into her costume-as-protest inclinations..
..and suckered him into a chicken-suit..(where is the dignity..?..i hear you ask..)
..and young/new/current greens should take that as a warning..
..if you see delahunty bearing down on you wielding chicken-costumes/flummery ..
..and the like..
..run..run for the hills..!..
genter:..to me genter is the most interesting/capable of the next generation of green mp’s..
..her performances against a lumbering/clumsy brownlee in parliament are a delight to behold..
..she verbally dances around him..a darting dragonfly to his shrek..
..and if she is not minister of transport in a new govt..
..there is no justice in this world..
..and if genter gets this gig..we will have inner-city bikeways..and the like.. coming out of our ears..
..and this is a good thing..
mathers:..not much to say..except the mojo-revelation begging the question:..
..does her ‘mojo’ really work..
..shaw:..a blank canvas..i know nothing of him..but i note he too got delahuntyed..)
sage:..a very serious person..
..takes everything pretty seriously..
..lot’s of browns/greens in her house..?
..(and perhaps the most ‘mung-bean’ of these listed mp’s..)
(n.b. i have never met/seen any of these people in person…this is all ‘psychic’/an orifice-pluck..on my part..)
Phil
Dave Kennedy, from Invercargill, has secured the no. 19 spot. He writes a blog, Local Bodies and if you’d like someone to vouch for him, I’ll declare that my brother-in-law will make an excellent Green MP. He’s hard-working and sincere, plus he’s got his head around almost every possible issue and wherehe hasn’t, he’s working on it.. Here’s my post on Dave’s rise and rise.
Hi Phil
Good to hear that you and your dogs are in rude health – vegans rule, at least they seem to in Invercargill where the movement has some very active and entertaining members who appear at all sorts of events, peddling their animal-products-free wares (muffins to die for!). Jordan Wyatt, you might know him, vegan activist extraordinaire. I’m not sure what ‘percentage’ Dave needs. It seems to me that if he just keeps on doing what he’s doing, he’ll get there. He’s dogged 🙂 The Nat candidates down here are extra-flakey this time around, a Philip Morris tobacco man/boy and a blond who declared her wish to ‘troop around Parliament in my stilettos’. They look very foolish beside Dave’s poise.
It’s
1 Damning by faint praise – focusing on trivia and leaving almost anything of real worth out
2 Making sure she includes at least one negative or at least ‘clownish’ activity from the point of view of potential voters
Vitriol would have been better – easier to see
GARETH HUGHES
– Greenpeace activist and campaign coordinator
JULIE ANNE GENTER
– 5 years’ private sector experience in transport and urban planning
MOJO MATHERS
– Holds degrees in mathematics and conservation forestry
– First profoundly deaf MP in New Zealand history
– Founding member of the Malvern Hills Protection Society
JAMES SHAW
– Extensive private sector experience focusing on corporate social responsibility and leadership development
+1 Jan
My immediate response was the same as yours Jan. I thought it deliberately tried to reinforce the idea being promulgated by the right that the Green Party candidates are all a bit flakey.
The hidden message was ‘would you vote for this collection of loons?’
Precisely.
One woman putting down a group of other women – and one baby-faced young father. Perhaps it takes a woman to recognise the vitriolic sentiments in the words of another woman.
I don’t think it’s predominantly sexist really, Anne -it’s the old hidden ‘right agenda’ in a slightly more subtle form than usual. I think the trick to seeing what she is up is to envisage the audience she is targeting.
There are national voters out there who would sooner eat their young than vote for anything as ‘common’ as labour – you know the kind I mean – the semi-educated upwardly mobile with fragile egos – but who can associate with the more upmarket concept of conservation. They are, however, easily diverted by associations with ‘loonies’ – they take themselves very seriously and hate to be laughed at
I’m a Labour voter but I really do hope Julie Anne Genter gets to add ‘Right Honourable” to her CV after she becomes Transport Minister later this year.
Yes I think you can take that as a given that Labour will appoint Julie Anne as the Transport Minister. There are a number of reasons, one being she is the best credentialed candidate from any of the Left bloc. Another is the obvious concessions that Labour has to make, it’s hardly likely they are going to give Norman the Finance portfolio is it. It has a slightly insincere element also, by flinging hospital passes to the Greens, letting them push for costly Auckland Rail Loop, axing some of Nationals major roading projects. This makes Transport a tough portfolio, however I think Genter and the Greens will make a good go of it.
Vance has certainly linked with every foreign reference she could find. I agree with you that she’s trying to be cunning and write a very negative piece while appearing neutral. Happily, I don’t think potential Green voters are too swayed by xenophobia. All Vance has done is show her own prejudices.
It also depends how many people took much notice of the bottom bit. I paid most attention to the actual article – which was fairly straight forward. I skimmed the thumb nail sketches at the bottom, because I know about those people. I was a little frustrated the rest of the list wasn’t shown. I did look for it on the Green Party website, but it wasn’t up early on this morning.
It’s not about your perceptions Phillip, its about how the Party members see things,
Lazy me would like to know from anyone with the information at hand in their head what % of the Party vote will the Green Party need to get Marama Davidson into the Parliament,
Right now my intention is to Party vote tactically which means for me a vote for Mana or Mana/internet should the alliance of the 2 occur,
i do tho have a conflicting imperative of believing that Marama will make an excellent MP which might as we get closer to E day have me voting in that vein…
If every vote cast was to count the Green percentage to get 16 MPs, which appears to be her list position, would be about (16/120) * 100 or about 13.4%.
In practice there are always some wasted votes so it will be less than that and they will need around 13%. Tough ask in my view as the party usually drops below their poll results when it comes to an election.
‘Work Ability Assessments’ done for Work and Income, and the private, outsourced, supposedly “independent” providers that have been contracted to deliver this new “service”.
This is stuff NO mainstream media will report to you! It is a comprehensive study giving a detailed overview of what led to the introduction of this program, about the new provisions in the Social Security Act, how it all compares with what ACC do in the way of assessments, who the providers are, who they employ to deliver what kind of services, and what legal implications there will be.
Also included is an analysed interview by Director for Welfare Reform, Sandra Kirikiri, from MSD, who gave an interview on Radio NZ National a month or so ago, as well as some revealing OIA responses on related matters.
This is stuff that should also be discussed leading up to the general election, but as it seems to be “too sensitive”, most politicians seem reluctant to touch it.
Worth noting re all this, even a government friendly “blogger” from the “other side” appears to now accept, that not all is going right with the welfare reforms that “auntie” Paula Bennett and her buddies from this government have served up to us: http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2014/05/a_disabling_bug.html
P.S.: Many thanks to a few loyal, dedicated friends, who made the efforts to collate this information, and put it all together, working with affected. There’s more info where this comes from, but I will not tire you with it now.
Wallace Chapman on Radionz had interesting discussion on voting this morning.
Other countries – have compulsory voting. Have option of not voting for any of above. ( Even though we have MMP which offers more choice than the bi-party Westminster model that could be good.) Thinking of a start of 16 years age. Ireland has been working with people in planning changes, they have been chosen at random, and I think the number is 66. (I think that we should have the option of working on policy, drawn at random from a group who have done a diploma study of basic government policy matters. It is time to have informed people having input from the citizens. And the diploma people will put their own names forward, so there should be wider background.)
Wallace Chapman on Radionz had interesting discussion on voting this morning.
Other countries – have compulsory voting
And we still have levels of turnout that they would be proud of, without compulsory voting. I’m not sure what this fetish for doing things some foreign but often worse way is.
Am also in favor of compulsory voting, we have compulsory registering to vote so why not, it seems a small price to pay for a strong democracy once every 3 years to cast a vote,
Allowing voting to occur over a week long period in selected polling places with the main event still on the one day would make it easier for everyone to participate…
Is there a quota in newsrooms of crime, disaster, tragedy, outbursts of human or animal behaviour that is grotesque? Which might explain why we have to hear the latest shooting/ outrage from the USA. It seems that country is our near neighbour, close to our hearts, full of people we have an interest in. Though presumably there are matters happening in nearer Cook Islands, Tonga and so on that should find its way into our National news. They do have their own Pacific News slot but if sport can find its way out of its special slot to the main news, so could pacific news.
The USA is on the edge of the Pacific and is far from peaceful as that name implies. But Hawaii is involved with USA. There are Maori who are interested in Hawaii. Let’s hear from that country as they have already had their association with the USA decided by that country in the early 1900’s. We may have to follow that pattern. It might be politic to form associations and take an interest in them now as a primary way of awareness of happenings in that part of the Pacific.
Is there a quota in newsrooms of crime, disaster, tragedy, outbursts of human or animal behaviour that is grotesque?
They are all dramatic, heart rending stories which capture attention, soak up the imagination, and completely avoid challenging the narrative, actions or power structures of the elite and the wealthy.
There’s also the humdrum explanation that the news comes from a couple of international wire services, which used to be AP and Reuters. There are other agencies which specialise in a wider variety of news, but they don’t tend to get used in Aotearoa. Thank Atua for the internet, even though it needs taking with many grains of salt. That’s the mechanism, but the fundamental explanation is to dumb down the electorate. I’m convinced of that.
Maybe we could look at the up coming election a bit like the election at the end of WW2 in britain and vote Key out now that everything is OK since the biggest financial crisis since the 1930’s is over according to him anyway and short circuit any need to listen to anymore of his Tory bullshit.
That way he’ll be able to satisfy his ego and not go down the path that he took during the crash of 1987 and be part of the global finance heist that brought about the 2008 crash.
The arrogance of this govt to expect us to swallow any more BS about how well we are doing is appalling since Key has to return in the next election to serve his masters on the TPPA to complete the job which actually started with Roger Douglas and got checked mainly by the ineptitude of previous National govts and was nearly annihilated before the 2008 crash ,ie its been in the pipeline alot longer than the present round of selling off the last of NZ to the rest of the world on their terms
Also it would be nice to have Labour NZF and the Greens holding the Nats against the wall so that they cant move an inch unless the aforesaid coalition says so like National has done for 2 terms
For the politically addicted, both TV1 and TV3 will have their latest polling out tonight, a hint from TV1 is David Cunliffe’s 2% rise in polled support,(which hopefully has also translated across to the Party %)…
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/property/news/article.cfm?c_id=8&objectid=11260348
Springpark is seen as an affordable homes project, with townhouses in stage one priced from $399,000 to $554,000
How easily $400-$500k has become entrenched into our vocab as ” affordable”, and accepted by many as being do.To many this is still priced at an unaffordable level and will be unattainable.
Its a conversation for, of, and by the middle class, those that cannot afford such prices simply become like the unemployed/beneficiaries non-persons to be ignored,
There is plenty of political hay to be made in the Boo Hoo that the prices are out of reach of the children of the current generation of the middle class who in all reality created the un-affordability in the first place,
Here’s a few reasons:
The property ladder, Mc-mansions of 200+ square meters,
The property ladder, the love of the rental property, 200,000 previous ‘homes’ crossed over to being ‘rentals’ in 20 years,
Free money, the accommodation supplement on the surface a payment to help those with low incomes,
Free money, the ability for those owning rental property to write of any ‘losses’ on such property against other income including wages, hell why wouldn’t they and Governments have allowed this largely unknown,(except by those in the know),to carry on for the past 20 years,
Is there a ‘coincidence’ in the property ladder having transferred 200,000 former homes into ‘rentals’ in 20 years and the fact that the tax lawyers 20 years ago came up with the tax dodge where losses on the ‘rental’ were allowed to be written off against taxes on other income including wages,
My brother who paid out 3 grand for the privilege of learning how to do this at a seminar run by the Australian tax lawyers who imported this little dodge and a bunch of drooling real estate agents and dived into 2 rental properties as a result would say a big Yes to that question…
Along related lines bad12, I noticed, at the bottom of this piece on the sad, accidental death of an elderly Cockle Bay man, the estimated value of his house.
Similarly, one does not hear mention of certain suburbs on the news without the inclusion adjectives like “exclusive” or “upmarket” – “exclusive Herne Bay,” “upmarket Parnell,” etc. It seems as if touting real estate wherever possible has become one of the media’s core functions.
The media targets an audience with disposable income and discretionary time. Not the hard up struggling working class trying to juggle 3 part time jobs. So yes, you’re about right.
But even if they do target such people, is it really necessary, relevant or even decent to mention the estimated dollar value of a man’s house when the story is that he has died falling down a lift shaft in it?
“How easily $400-$500k has become entrenched into our vocab as ” affordable””
One of the problems is interest rates. In 2008 a $300,000 25yr mortgage had repayments of $580 per week. Today a $391,000 25yr mortgage costs $580 per week. That’s the difference 6% interest makes against 9%.
House prices went up but to a certain level the actual cost of the house did not. If interest rates stay low the $390k house costs the home buyer today the same as a $300k house cost in 2008.
Labour are determined to keep interest rates low so we won’t see house prices falling under them.
It may also interest that the $300k mortgage fell to $445 per week in 2009, that’s a saving of $7020 annually that only a mortgage holder received. People who owned property(and had a mortgage) didn’t just make a handsome capital gain over the last six years they also had a very, very, substantial increase in disposable income… and a tax cut.
Martyn Bradbury on whipping up the bullshit terrorist threat in New Zealand :
“There’s something terribly manufactured by this sudden exposure of domestic terrorism at a time the Government is about to face intense scrutiny over how the intelligence agencies have been behaving behind our backs.”
Manufacturing a domestic Muslim threat in Auckland as Drone strike leaks loom –
”How long is a piece of string” is usually my response to discussions about the length of my expected life,
Turns out, unwittingly, that response is not that far off of the mark with Genetic science turning increasingly to the study of Telomeres as the ”culprit” when it comes to not only aging but various other diseases like Cancers as well,
Another interesting link to the science which even goes so far as to identify the ”culprit” as ‘Ring 1b’ a particular protein in the extremely complex activity in cell division and renewal,
The above story is only a day old, i suspect the link i provide,(as usual), wont work, the Google is: Misguided DNA-repair proteins caught in the act.
It appears that Telomeres appear at the end of al DNA sequences,(strings), and are likened by scientists to the tabs at the end of shoelaces, they use the analogy that like a shoelace without the tab on the end a sequence of DNA will without telomeres attached simply fray with dire results,
It appears that as cells in our bodies divide and replicate themselves the telomeres at the end of DNA sequences shorten with each division, as the telomeres shorten the risk of disease, cancers, diabetes rises,
The Vegans will be pleased to note that ”life-style” change ‘might’ actually provoke the telomeres to lengthen or at least slow the rate of shortening, this apparently isn’t conclusive as the study group was small,
Some people are born with a genetic propensity to have already shortened telomeres on their particular strands of DNA,
Lifestyle changes may lengthen telomeres, a measure of cell aging,
“..The Vegans will be pleased to note that ”life-style” change ‘might’ actually provoke the telomeres to lengthen or at least slow the rate of shortening..”
..that explains why all the ‘elderly’ vegans i know are all in such rude-good-health..(men and women..)
..a couple of years ago..a mid-seventy-something vegan (for over 30 yrs) and i..spent the large part of a day..
..splitting a winter-supply pile of wood/logs..(from felled trees..)..
..i was..and am still..amazed at the energy/strength/stamina he displayed on that day..
..and he/that is just one example of many i cd cite..
..so..our telemeres are growing..eh..?
..while those of the carnivores are shrinking..eh..?
..that’s cool..!
..that’ll do me for a takeaway..(vegan..of course..!..)
..(and as for the carnivores..wd u like bacon with that..?..
Thought you would be pleased Phillip, bad making your day good since, well since the day after making it bad,
The discussion on ‘telomeres’ is also of relevance to the discussion points i have been making about,(especially) Lung Cancers in the past couple of days,
Looked at negatively ie: 90% of Lung Cancers appear in those who have or do smoke leads to the obvious conclusion that smoking must then be the cause of lung Cancer,
However, that negative masks the reality where 90% of smokers will never develop a Lung Cancer and perhaps the answer to why this is lies in the length of the individuals telomers…
listening to Willie Jackson on Arrow FM yesterday. H was intervieing a national party woman maori list mp and she stressed several time the need for radio stations. Why is it that tribesmen in the Hindu Kush can have a local station for their valley but there are none in New Zealand? is it because Kiwis are a) just too mean or b) just to fucking stupid!
Oh dear. Does he mean that he is not certain that National will romp in? Surely the clever clogs has convinced the voters of his integrity and clever handling of the economy?
“Prime Minister John Key is predicting a “tight and tough” election with the Government up against a “left wing block” of parties…..
Mr Key told more than 250 party faithful at a conference in Hamilton today National could not be lulled into a false sense of security by high polling numbers ahead of the September 20 general election.
“He said National was not just up against the lower polling Labour but its left counterparts including the Greens, New Zealand First, and Mana.
Mr Key said the party had to work hard to keep voters interested and the Government would begin making policy announcements soon.
So now that the Budget is over what wonderful surprises will they offer or will they wait to get some excellent ideas from Labour/Greens? Wonder what the polls on TV tonight will show?
Testing block quote as the instruction has other bits on it.
<blockquote cite=””> or just
<blockquote>
The decisive point came on an aeroplane flight. She didn’t want her seatbelt on. I found myself trying to explain civil aviation regulations and Newton’s Second Law to a 3-year-old. I thought “this is nuts”. Sometimes, kids just have to do what Mum and Dad say, no cajoling, no explaining, just do it. Why? Cos we say so, that’s why.
So says Rodney just discovering that children depend on appropriate boundaries.
ps You might like to start with your statement “obviously an integral part of the green political machine”.
I think what you meant to say was “has a sticker”.
Shall we pretend I’ve already let you blather on about secret leftie commie agendas for a few more comments inbetween me asking you to clarify your statements (which of course you won’t) and skip directly to the inevitable conclusion?
Yep Draco. And then the question of provocation arises. Violence is not OK but those on the receiving end can hit back but at their peril. Interesting clip.
That video clip – is it all staged? Based on demonstrating what can happen. It seems a bit of a mock up. It seems like the case of the journalist who won some reporting prize but was found to have cherry-picked a number of known cases into one and presented that as a factual truth. Bad things need to be discussed, the extent of wrong behaviour revealed. But if being dramatised for the public it needs to be presented as outdoor theatre, role playing, if it is. There is enough bullshit around without helping partisan agencies inventing stuff.
Yes felix has understood. I don’t want to be manipulated or have others be so, about important things. I think harrassment and violence are important. I hate people crying Wolf.
Good point. I coudn’t tell if the filmed reactions were real or staged.
The film was made by the ManKind Initiative. A quick google tells me they are the only NGO support for men who are victims of domestic violence. They believe that gender politics should be compeletely taken out of anti-violence work. They also appear to believe that misrepresenting statistics will further their cause (the 40% figure). Can’t see it myself, although it would be good to raise awareness of different kinds of violence and how they affect different people in various ways.
Leaders of Chicago-area municipalities will have to explain in court why they didn’t do a better job of bracing for the types of floods that climate change is starting to bring down upon us. If they fail to make their case, then taxpayers could be on the hook for flood-related costs that would normally be borne by insurers.
Which is a rather interesting action. The insurance companies took the premiums knowing how things stood in regards to possible flooding and now they’re trying to back out of paying out the costs and lump it all on local government. If they succeed then it will actually prevent the council from making the necessary repairs/upgrades due to an even larger shortfall of money.
This really stinks of the insurance companies working to protect profits at the communities expense.
….the company stated in a press release issued Friday morning. “It’s obvious, based on the findings of this neutral scientific research group, that humans needs to become more dependent on fossil fuels like oil and coal, not less. Because these so-called `green technologies’ are far more dangerous to the Earth than any hydrofracking operation or deep-water drilling station. – See more at: http://nationalreport.net/solar-panels-drain-suns-energy-experts-say/#sthash.sqWgL8a1.dpuf
Affordable fossil fuels are going away regardless of what the corporate PR says. The only question is – will we be ready for it and thus be able to maintain some semblance of a decent lifestyle and society, or is it going to be a total shit fight/sudden collapse situation.
Bugger the Polls! …on latest Reid Research Poll…by Martyn Bradbury
“I hear tonights 3 News/Reid Research Poll will have National on 51% and will claim that 65% of Labour voters back National’s Budget. Before the Left collectively contemplate suicide a couple of things…..
Both Reid Research and Colmar had National up to 50-51%. While likely overestimating the support, it does suggest an underlying trend of rising support from a well received budget. But I think only the most partisan would have thought National’s ‘Do No Evil – Labour Lite’ Budget would have been poorly received.
i would suggest that National will do no better than the 2011 election, the question then is where will the evaporating Maori Party %of the Party Vote go,
The other question, will the Mana/Internet party alliance occur which may just produce a huge wild card into election 2014 especially if the Maori Party, as i expect, completely disappears from the Parliament,
Another wild card being can the allegations of former NZFirster,(he who would have i suggest inherited the crown from Winston), Brendon Who do any damage to that Party…
Yeah, I see National at around 45-47% at election time.
On the Maori Party vote, I wouldn’t quite discount them yet. Labour’s complete meltdown in Tamaki Makaurau might just give them a lifeline (I think Annette Skyes will beat Flavell) so they might be able to creep in with at least one seat, maybe two.
I’m still of the opinion that Mana/Internet (if it happens) won’t win any more than 2 seats.
NZ First is going to be the key here. If they get 4.5% that might actually make National’s job a lot easier of building a majority with Dunne and Seymour as coattails to cross the line. But unless Horan’s allegations take hold, it seems likely they’ll cross the line and be the balance of power.
Yes Tamaki-Makarau now has become a marginal seat in my opinion, there’s even a slight ell chance that the Green Parties Marama Davidson could squeak in there with a division of the vote among the other Parties,
i still believe that Labour are the most likely to take the seat,but hardly a certainty,
50/50 in Waiariki giving Flavell the haere ra,
If the alliance goes ahead, i am picking the ‘novelty’ of the Mana/Internet alliance along with some savvy advertising will give such an alliance 3–4% of the party vote which will still rely upon Hone or Annette winning either Te Tai Tokerau and/or Waiariki,
The last Roy Morgan polled Mana up at 1% so talk of the alliance seems to have boosted their support and polled Internet at 1.5%, i would suggest excellent numbers in a poll where the Labour and Green %’s also rose showing that thus far Mana/Internet are not cannibalizing their vote from those parties,
Yes what will NZFirst do, even describing that party is problematic, a centrist party with definitely defined left and right wings along with a large dash of red-neckism perhaps???,
Lolz, i was disappointed in Brendon Who’s insipid attack on Winston and the Party last week, but, every little bit helps and National shows how much they know they must have Winston and NZFirst back in the next Parliamet to have a hope in hell of forming a Government, by taking the vows of silence as Brendon Who attacked the integrity of His former mentor,
Recently Winston has gone strangely silent about the Greens, either having resiled from His former position on that Party or holding His counsel which might be a slight indicator of the chances of a change of Government…
I expect the polls are overstating the gap by between 4 and 6 %, that National’s support will decline and that it is likely Peters will hold the balance of power after the election. Even last time in a campaign which was said to be one sided the margin of success was tiny.
As I replied to bad12 in another thread, if it wasn’t for that tea tape bollocks and the rena running aground National would have got an out right at the last election.
I’d be surprised if the same situation rears it’s head this time around.
Your crystal ball works in reverse too BM,???, the electorate still dining out on tax cuts got Slippery the PM and National a second term,
That sugar rush has worn off,(which is why Slippery even befor the ink had dried on the current budget thought up and released to the media a brand new ”tax cuts” policy which even His Finance Minister obviously knew nothing about),
I think 6% is being overly optimistic. I suspect National’s support is overstated by around 3-4%. In 2011, the last two Colmar and Reid polls were out by around 3-4%. The polls that had National at 53-54% were pre-cupofteagate which I think people tend to forget. If anything, the polls did actually reflect a lessening of support from National after that.
So 3-4% overstated support seems likely using past data. Suggesting 6% is just having a bit of a punt.
Maybe they could pinch a couple of natz. Oh, except they have none. The natz had to pinch Labour’s policies to make their budget work. They have nothing else. Btw, key is looking ancient. Cheating, lying deceiving etc. taking it’s toll.
Won’t need fantastic policies. Just the credible ones needed that resonate with NZ workers and Labour/Green will produce them Meanwhile the Nats will scramble to try and cover those policies which will look a bit desperate. It is probable that if an election was held today National simply wouldn’t win.
Lolz, the over confidence that is being exhibited here tonight by the brigade of ‘wing-nuts’ who all but disappeared following the last Roy Morgan Poll is what will sink National,
The fact that the lot of you post the last Roy Morgan tucked tail and slithered off someplace to hide tells me that you over confidence is wafer thin just as the current Governments ability to pass Legislation through the current Parliament is,
Delusional is the best expletive i can apply to those who think that this current motley crew will have the numbers in the next Parliament to ‘Govern alone’ without risking a spanking from the mods,
Fucks sake the pathetic current National Government cannot even gather the number to pass Legislation in the House to amend the Resource Management Act, lameduck and hamstrung spring to mind when i think of Slippery the PM’s current leadership…
Don’t the two land-line pollsters, Colmar Brunton and Reid Research do their polling on a monthly basis in election year? On that basis, I expected them to appear last week-end. Instead they delay it one week so that the poll included the election year “budget bounce”? No doubt the fan boys and girls at TV1 and TV3 assume they will be duly rewarded for their loyalty to King John II.
Laughable, we are back to the future with ”National can govern alone with these numbers” polls which is the same old same old as occurred from the media last election,
Obvious the ‘wing-nuts’ needed ‘watering’ as their numbers here at the Standard have been seriously wilting after the last Roy Morgan,(down to one blossom a day for the past couple of weeks),
National at the moment cannot proceed in the Parliament with their idea of Resource heaven as they cannot muster enough votes to amend the present Legislation, SO, the most minor of swings that results in the loss of two votes from anywhere in the numbers that make up National’s present coalition is likely to turf National onto the opposition benches…
Interesting how Gower and the anchor talk up the 3 News poll as if it was totally accurate and the only one ever done – like it’s THE authority on what will happen come election time.
The 73% probability that there will be a National PM after the election should be compared with the 91% probability of a National PM at the comparable stage before the last election.
I Predict is laughable, wee Matty Hooton says that it is now being run by Victoria University which has me lamenting education standards at that particular institution,
Have a look at the % of the Party vote that they allocate to the Internet Party next time you are over that way,
i have a snigger at the ‘work’ of these future geniuses every time i visit…
It’s looking like a 3rd term for National, short of JK being caught on camera eating children…
Labour needs to ditch pushing the retirement age to 67. Why is a socialist party pushing people to work longer? The CGT is not a winner either. All people hear is ‘tax’. Expect the Nats to ram that down people’s throats close to election
Labour should pledge to use the CGT’s revenue to lower GST or low-income tax rates (or establish a threshold of not paying tax on the first $10,000 or something).
It means New Zealand can finally have a CGT which should take a bit of the heat out of the property market, broaden investment options and put more money in the back pocket of those most struggling.
Wow what a rubbish poll on TV3 just shows they only poll from Epsom, polls are not important it’s the election that counts, hopefully Russell Norman steps up he is the only hope. The issue is cunliffe he is disliked by the general public.
Left block: Labour 30.5+ Greens 13.5+ Mana 1+ Internet .5+ NZF 6 = 51.5
Right block: National 45.5+ Maori 1+ Act 1+ Cons 1+ United Future .5= 49
Other parties= .5.
Result: A Left or Right wing coalition is in Government depending on Winston Peters.
Playing hard and fast with the definition of “left block” by including NZ First within it. I think everyone agrees Winston could go either way and support left or right. But I wouldn’t call him “left-wing” myself. He’s radical centre. Left and right policies.
I dont think the polls will change much, they have been pretty stable for a while now in terms of Nats vs the left. The emergence of the Greens / Mana have taken a fair amount of the left vote from labour and means that their natural level of support will max out at 35ish as long as the greens are performing. If you are a righty you really only have one option as to where you put your vote.
The danger will be that joe public will fall for the Labours only 30 nats on 50 polling narrative and fall into the no point voting trap … that could significantly hollow out the labour vote on the day.
30% + 11% = 41%. The Cunliffe is truly awesome. The assumptions here that National can only go down are truly heroic. The phone is off the hook. September 20th could signal the natural party of government gaining another record vote.
MY PREDICTION OF ELECTION RESULT BASED ON POLLS SO FAR:
There are still four months to the election. A lot can change in that time. The budget euphoria has helped National here. But I don’t think this excitement will last, because the other parties are yet to announce their major policies in the next couple of months.
Based on the recent four polls and from past experience of the disparity between the per-election polls and the actual election results, here is my estimate/calculation/prediction/gut feeling of the probable party vote for various parties, rounded to whole numbers:
If you’re right, and I believe you are, National really is in serious trouble. Things are going to get desperately dirty on the back of this I predict, also.
Interestingly, in the space of a month, National has risen 6% in your prediction! Labour has shed 4%. Internet/Mana are down 2%.
These are clearly very accurate and well-informed predictions and absolutely nothing to do with plucking numbers out of thin air. Though, this guess is at least a little better than the last.
Not really. We don’t know what might happen between now and election day. If you’re pointing a gun at my head to make a guess (and that’s all it really is) then I’d say something like:
National – 44-47%
Labour – 30-32%
Greens – 10-13%
Winston First – 4-6%
The Tories might grab 2%. Outside of that, I don’t think any other minor party will hit above 2%.
I ran across a recent essay from The Brothers Krynn, which attempts to map common horror monsters onto the Seven Deadly Sins: https://canadianculturecorner.substack.com/p/horror-monsters-and-vice My interest, however, is not in the meat of the piece, but rather the opening paragraph: It is an interesting fact that in recent decades, Vampires have ...
Buzz from the Beehive Transport Minister Simeon Brown dutifully issued advice to all road users to keep safe on our roads during the Easter weekend. He encouraged them to stay safe, plan their journeys ahead of time, and be patient with other drivers while travelling around this Easter long weekend. ...
Oliver Hartwich writes – New Zealanders recently learned about a new feature film. It will be about former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern – and taxpayers will subsidise it to the tune of NZ$800,000. Ardern had nothing personally to do with either the film or the subsidy. But her government’s ...
TL;DR: Here’s the top six news items of note in climate news for Aotearoa-NZ this week, and a discussion above that was recorded yesterday afternoon above between and The Kākā’s climate correspondent : An independent review panel into the emergency response to Cyclone Gabrielle in Hawkes Bayconcluded “that ...
There are now only a few days left to give feedback on the Draft Government Policy Statement (GPS) on Land Transport 2024-34 (see our earlier post this week on GPS submission guides). As we’ve reported, the GPS is a disaster for Local Government, so we were particularly interested to hear ...
Willis has pledged to go ahead with the debt-funded tax cuts, despite growing opposition from her own supporters worried about appearing fiscally irresponsible. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for ...
Open access notables A survey of interventions to actively conserve the frozen North, van Wijngaarden et al., Climatic Change:The frozen elements of the high North are thawing as the region warms much faster than the global mean. The dangers of sea level rise due to melting glacier ice, increased ...
Bryce Edwards writes – New Zealand’s biggest-ever political donations scandal is finally at an end. But what is the conclusion? No one can really be sure. The Court of Appeal released its judgement on Tuesday about the Serious Fraud Office case against the NZ First Foundation. On ...
In 2015, then-Prime Minister John Key announced plans for a huge ocean sanctuary around the Kermadec Islands, banning fishing and mining from 15% of Aotearoa's EEZ. It was bold, it was ambitious, and it suggested that National might actually care about the environment. Except they fucked it up: Key failed ...
1. Who has just been given the accolade New Zealander of the Year?a. The Kokakob. The Cook Strait Ferryc. Fair God. Dr Jim Salinger 2. Which of these is an affront to decent society?a. Dame Edna Everageb. Mrs Doubtfire c. Dr. Frank-N-Furterd. Brian 3. Who is Penny Simmonds?a. The aspiring actress in Big ...
New Zealand’s biggest-ever political donations scandal is finally at an end. But what is the conclusion? No one can really be sure.The Court of Appeal released its judgement on Tuesday about the Serious Fraud Office case against the NZ First Foundation. On the face of it, the court found ...
Buzz from the Beehive Waves of rain are set to lash much of the North Island during Easter Weekend as a low-pressure system forms east of New Zealand, according to a weather forecast published in the past day or so. Niwa was warning of a “moisture-laden” long weekend, with rain expected ...
Look around us…Nicola Willis’ promises of balancing the books, of cutting spending without reducing services, and of delivering game changing tax cuts are disappearing before her eyes.Everyday we see stories of violent crime ending in horrific injuries, or worse. The cost of living worsens, whereas the PM claimed renters would ...
TL;DR: My top six news of note on the morning of Thursday, March 28 include:The Government will have to borrow between $10 billion to $15 billion more than previously expected in order to make up for a slowing economy and to pay for $14.9 billion of tax cuts, according to ...
This story by Naveena Sadasivam and Kate Yoder was originally published by Grist and is part of Covering Climate Now, a global journalism collaboration strengthening coverage of the climate story. The long-awaited jobs board for the American Climate Corps, promised early in the Biden administration, will open next month, according to details shared exclusively ...
Should landlords be able to deduct the interest on the loans they take out to bankroll their property speculation? The US Senate Budget Committee and Bloomberg News don’t think this is a good idea, for reasons set out below. Regardless, our coalition government has been burning through a ton of ...
Treasury’s first report on the economy since the change of government presents a damning indictment of Labour’s economic management. The problem for National is that it is so damning that logically, coupled with a rapidly slowing economy, Finance Minister Nicola Willis should respond to it by postponing or even cancelling ...
Budget tensions are becoming evident within the Coalition Government. Winston Peters made numerous political points in his speech to the NZF annual conference. But the attack on his own government’s fiscal policies raised issues of substance. ‘Today in the Sunday Star Times, journalist and former advisor to the Labour ...
Buzz from the Beehive The media – sure enough – have been binging on Finance Minister Nicola Willis’ release of the Budget Policy Statement and a statement headed Government announces Budget priorities This assures us – or rather, this parrots the Luxon team mantra – that the Budget “will deliver ...
The Ides of March brought me COVID followed by a bereavement. No wonder they tell you to be careful of them.I’m home now and have resumed the interrupted recuperation. Very much looking forward to getting back to regular things. Meanwhile, some thoughts…OneThis new Prime Minister guy just keeps getting more dire. ...
News that the Chinese ATP 40 cyber-hacking unit penetrated parliamentary internet networks in 2021 has renewed concerns about the PRC’s malign intentions in Aotearoa. But is the hack that significant given the length of time that has passed since its … Continue reading → ...
When Parliament passed the Intelligence and security Act in 2017, they assured us all that it was full of safeguards. Any intrusive surveillance of New Zealanders would be subject to a "triple lock", requiring the approval of the Minister and (supposedly independent) Commissioner of Intelligence Warrants, as well as post-facto ...
Eric Crampton writes – Richard Harman’s Politik newsletter provides a bit of the context that ought to have been showing up in other media reports on potential reductions in public service staffing. Media has been reporting on staffing cuts on the order of about 7%. Is that ...
Mike Grimshaw writes – It’s becoming increasingly apparent that many perceive free speech to have become the preserve of the politically right wing, the religiously conservative, the libertarian fringe, the anti-trans, the anti-Māori and…. well, just fill in with whatever groups or individuals you don’t like and don’t ...
Don Brash writes – As everybody who is not blind and deaf is aware, there is a huge political preoccupation with climate change at the moment, a widespread (though by no means unanimous) belief that global temperatures are rising mainly as a result of the greenhouse gases created ...
TL;DR: My six things to note in Aotearoa’s political economy on Wednesday, March 27 include:Chris Bishop laid out his vision for filling Aotearoa-NZ’s $100 billion infrastructure deficit in a speech yesterday, emphasising user pays and private funding, but failed to say how to achieve bipartisanship on population, public borrowing and ...
Bryce Edwards writes – Former Finance Minister Grant Robertson and former Prime Minister Chris Hipkins have been conveying how unhappy they are with the tax system. Last week in his valedictory speech, Robertson called for the introduction of a wealth or capital gains tax. And this week Hipkins ...
On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
Buzz from the Beehive China has loomed large in Beehive considerations over the past 24 hours, largely because of that country’s mischief-making in the cyber espionage department. Two media statements emerged on that subject hard on the heels of the PM baulking at questions put to him on RNZ’s Morning ...
Chris Trotter writes – WHY IS THE NATIONAL PARTY doing so much for landlords, property developers, trucking, and construction companies, and so little for everybody who isn’t already pretty well-off? It’s as if protecting landlords’ investments and building apartments and roads now constitute the whole of National’s ...
Bryce Edwards writes – When she was campaigning to be Minister of Finance last year, Nicola Willis pledged that she would resign from the job if she failed to deliver tax cuts in her first Budget. Now, it’s that pledge, along with Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s ...
Robert MacCulloch writes – The Reserve Bank has doubled staff numbers in five years to 510, with personnel costs rising to $80 million in 2023 from $32 million in 2018 – up by a whopping 150%. I guess when you print $50 billion and flood markets with liquidity, ...
The furore. In case you didn’t notice there was a controversy in the weekend involving dolphins in a little town off the South Island. Don’t panic, they haven’t declared independence and resumed whaling, this was simply a sailing event.The problem began when racing was cancelled on the opening day of ...
For 20 years or more, the case for a meaningful capital tax gains has been mulled over and analysed to death, including by the tax working group chaired by Sir Michael Cullen. More than once, the International Monetary Fund has said a CGT would be a good idea for New ...
TL;DR: My top 10 news and analysis links this morning include:Today’s must-read: The Public Health Communications Centre (PHCC) call for urgent preventive action and a risk assessment survey of long covid in this briefing noteLocal scoop: NZ road deaths surpass OECD rates, so why is the govt reversing safety plans? ...
This story was originally published by Grist and is part of Covering Climate Now, a global journalism collaboration strengthening coverage of the climate story. This story is part of a collaboration with Grist and WABE to demystify the Georgia Public Service Commission, the small but powerful state-elected board that makes critical decisions about everything from raising ...
This is a guest post from Robert McLachlan Global warming is accelerating; 2023 was off the charts. We need to stop burning fossil fuels. In New Zealand, transport accounts for half of all fossil fuels burnt. In the Emissions Reduction Plan, transport emissions fall 41% by 2035. As the ...
Labour productivity has been receding rapidly over the past two years, reversing a post-lockdown rise. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: My six things to note in Aotearoa’s political economy as at 6:26am on Tuesday, March 26 include:Workers have been treading water in output per hour worked for 12 years, ...
TL;DR: The key events to watch in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy in the week to April 2 include:Today, Parliament resumes sitting at 2pm for the second week of a two-week session. Officials for SIS and GCSB report their annual reviews in public to the Intelligence and Security Select Committee from 5.10pm.Tomorrow, ...
Faced with a barrage of criticism over the promised tax cuts from usually supportive commentators, Finance Minister Nicola Willis yesterday reaffirmed her intention to include them in this year’s Budget. The Government is up against it over the cuts just about every way it turns. Commentators like Fran O’Sullivan, Matthew ...
Here’s my pick of today’s substack posts as of 6:26pm on Monday, March 25: writes via his substack that Market-rate housing will make your city cheaper writes via his substack about the problems talking to double-cab ute (truck) drivers about their vehicles. today about moments of radicalisation in ...
Buzz from the Beehive Just before Christmas, Finance Minister Nicola Willis delivered something that was pitched as a mini-budget and brayed about the decisive action being taken to repair the Government books and support income tax relief in Budget 2024. In a statement headed Fiscal repair job underway. she introduced ...
My sister Belinda asked Dad yesterday what one word would describe Mum best. He said: vivacious.If you only knew her from the photos on the slideshow we've made for today,you might wonder about that, because the camera tended to lie with Mum.If ever she saw a camera pointed at her, she ...
There are two major public consultations closing in the next week, Auckland Council’s Long Term Plan (LTP), and the draft Government Policy Statement on Land Transport (GPS). Closing dates and times: LTP closes Thursday 28 February, at 11.59pm – a minute to midnight! GPS closes Tuesday 2 April, at 12pm noon – note that’s ...
From Kiwiblog’s David Farrar – Bryce Wilkinson writes: Senior Fellow Bryce Wilkinson’s analysis reveals that since March 2009, New Zealand has spent $158 billion more overseas than it has earned, but its NIIP has only fallen by $32 billion.Statistics New Zealand shows that receipts from overseas reinsurers have ...
Is she hinting that the Coalition Government will have to back down on key promises it made in Opposition? Brian Easton writes – The Minister of Finance, Nicola Willis, is telling an evolving story about her fiscal challenges. In Opposition she was confident that she could ...
Dear Nicola Willis,Right now you’ve probably got lots of competing demands coming at you. Ministers who’ve inherited quite a mess, or so you’ve told us, looking for money in the budget to improve things. I imagine that’s why they came to parliament - to make things better.You’ll have to make ...
The Local Government, Transport and Auckland Minister hasthreatened councils with intervention if they don’t merge water assets to take them off balance sheet, just as the now-repealed Three Waters plan directed. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: My six things of note this morning for Monday, March 25 include:Simeon ...
A listing of 36 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, March 17, 2024 thru Sat, March 23, 2024. Story of the week Thanks to John Mason having the stamina to sit down to watch "Climate - the Movie" ...
This morning the Q&A programme had Simeon Brown on to talk about National’s replacement for Three Waters. In case anyone’s forgotten the three are - drinking water, waste water, and sewerage. It’s quite important not to get them mixed up. In much the same way that you wouldn’t want to ...
Today’s newsletter comes with a mini-podcast conversation between me and my buddy Liv Tennet, talking about her time as a child actor in Lord of the Rings. It’s a conversation with a lot of giggles as she talks about falling off a horse, and becoming a meme. Read ...
The Desmog Climate Disinformation Database documents, "individuals and organisations that have helped to delay and distract the public and our elected leaders from taking needed action to reduce greenhouse gas pollution and fight global warming." It's a who's who of the organised climate change denial movement, in other words. In ...
Bob Edlin writes – A High Court judge has decided miscreants who have mana – or who claim to have mana – should be treated differently from miscreants who have none. It’s a ruling that suggests indigenous law-breakers have a better chance of securing a discharge without conviction ...
Welcome to the first, and possibly last, edition of Brickbats, Bouquets and Bull’s Wool. In which I’ll take a look at the events of the last week or so, and rate them.In such ratings the numbers usually have more to do with the opinions of the reviewer, than the actual ...
Roger Partridge writes – My earlier column this month, New Zealand’s highest court could be facing a turning point, prompted a flood of feedback from business readers and lawyers alike. A common query was what Parliament can do to restrain an overreaching judiciary. This week I discuss two steps Parliament ...
TL;DR: In today’s ‘six-stack’ of substacks at 6.16pm on Friday, March 22: writes about New Zealand's Building Boom—And What the World Must Learn From It over at his substack. challenges the Auckland Council’s use of a 3.8 degrees of warming forecast to oppose a wave-park and data centre project ...
Is she hinting that the Coalition Government will have to back down on key promises it made in Opposition?The Minister of Finance, Nicola Willis, is telling an evolving story about her fiscal challenges. In Opposition she was confident that she could deliver her promised income tax cuts. Appointed minister, she ...
Buzz from the Beehive Ministers of the Crown have drawn attention to one sector of the science sector which is unlikely to be subjected to heavy spending cuts, a state-funded broadcaster which is doing nicely, thank you, and a sporting event that had $5.4 million from the public purse puffed ...
Abbott’s Freestyle Libre sensors allow continuous glucose monitoring (CGM). The sensor is applied to the back of the patient’s arm, with a thin filament under the skin measuring glucose levels constantly. But it costs around $100 per sensor and must be replaced once every 14 days. Photo by BSIP/Universal Images ...
The Inspector General of Intelligence and Security (IGIS) recently released a report in which he exposes the existence of a foreign intelligence partner-controlled technological “capability” inside the headquarters of the GCSB, NZ’s 5 Eyes-affiliated signals intelligence collection and analysis agency. … Continue reading → ...
Peter Dunne writes – Nearly three decades after the introduction of MMP and multiparty governments there should be a greater level of understanding about their finer points than often appears to be the case. The reaction to the despicable outburst from the Deputy Prime Minister at the weekend highlights ...
The sweet kisses from fruit of summerHave slowly been turning dullerYou say, "those times"And "remember the daysWhen we went outside and there still was the shade?"Taking no reason into play…Autumn. Clear, blue days shortening to longer nights, growing colder. Aotearoa.That’s us. The temperature dropping, the looming car crash - so ...
Bryce Edwards writes – “It is often said that behind every great man is a great woman”. This is the pitch by the National Party Botany electorate branch to attend their “Ladies Afternoon Tea with Amanda Luxon”. For $110 including GST, you can turn up on Saturday 20 April ...
David Farrar writes – The Electoral Commission has published the expense returns for political parties for the 2023 election. I’ve put them in a table with how many votes a party got so we can see the spend per vote. National only spent $3.34 for every vote they got, almost ...
Winston Peters’ headline-making actions over the past week may have been a show of political power intended to strengthen his hand in Budget negotiations. It was no accident that his State of the Nation speech was as it was. He made it as New Zealand First Leader, not as Deputy ...
Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:Former Labour Finance Minister Grant Robertson bowed out of politics this week, giving a series of exit ...
Graham Adams writes — If you love the law or sausages, as the saying goes, best not to look too closely at how they are made. And after watching the orgy of self-pity when Newshub’s closure was announced on February 28, television journalism should definitely be added to the list of those ...
Venerable New Zealand political commentator, Chris Trotter (https://bowalleyroad.blogspot.com/), is a sad creature these days. Once one of the most reliable Leftist writers out there – Economic Left at that – Trotter seems to have absorbed the worldview of Auckland culture-war obsessives. It is not for me to categorise what he ...
The Coalition Government’s plan to ‘get Auckland moving’ is a cuts cover-up that will ultimately cost Aucklanders more to move around the city, says Labour Auckland Issues spokesperson Shanan Halbert. ...
Slashing the Ministry of Pacific Peoples by 40% will have a devastating impact on pacific communities and further highlights how little this government cares about anything other than cutting taxes for the wealthiest few. ...
Labour has proposed an urgent inquiry to investigate the ever-increasing profits of supermarkets, aiming to lower costs for shoppers and food producers alike, says Labour Spokesperson for Commerce and Consumer Affairs Arena Williams and Primary Production Spokesperson Cushla Tangaere-Manuel. ...
With 14% of jobs on the line at the Ministry for Ethnic Communities, the responsible Minister Melissa Lee is failing to stand up for the very communities she’s meant to be representing. ...
COURT OF APPEAL: TRIFECTA OF VICTORY FOR NZ FIRST, TRIFECTA OF FAILURE FOR OPPONENTS For the third time since April 2020, New Zealand First has defeated the Serious Fraud Office and all those complicit in a malicious attack against a political party going about its lawful business in a lawful ...
The Green Party stands with people who live in public housing, people in dire housing need, experts and advocates in demanding better than the Government’s archaic approach to housing those who need our support the most. ...
New Zealand has recently lost the hosting rights of some major international sporting events including the America’s Cup, the Rugby Championship, Netball World Cup, and the Wellington Sevens. We are now at a huge risk of losing SailGP as well. And it won’t stop there. The recent issues with SailGP ...
A Member’s Bill drawn this week would modernise insurance law and make things fairer and more transparent for consumers, Christchurch Central MP Duncan Webb said. ...
The Minister for Disability Issues has confirmed she was aware of funding issues in mid-December and did nothing to stop it. On 14 March, she signed off on changes that were announced and implemented on 18 March without any consultation with disability communities. ...
Green Party MP Julie Anne Genter says her members' bill is an opportunity for the coalition government to plug the gap in electric vehicle incentives. ...
The National Government continues to talk about irresponsible tax cuts that will only drive up inflation, despite the country entering a technical recession. ...
The Minister for Disability Issues must act urgently to reinstate flexibility around the funding for disability support and apologise to disabled carers. ...
This story has been initiated by a leftie shill reporter who proactively sought to call a member of a former band, which disbanded twelve years ago, give their biased appraisal of what was said in my speech, and concocted a ham-fisted attempt at a story that does nothing but show ...
The Government has accepted Labour’s change to the Road User Charge (RUC) discount for hybrid vehicles, meaning there will still be some incentive for people to buy greener vehicles. ...
Many in the mainstream media have taken what was said in New Zealand First’s State of the Nation Speech in Palmerston North on Sunday and deliberately, deceitfully, and ignorantly misrepresented what I said and why I said it. The headlines and commentary on the news stated that I compared ‘co-governance ...
Kicking the most vulnerable people out of state housing and pushing them towards homelessness will result in a proliferation of poverty and trauma across our most vulnerable communities. ...
Te Pāti Māori co-leader and MP for Waiariki, Rawiri Waititi has penned a letter asking MPs to support his members bill to remove GST from all food. The bill is expected to go through its first reading in parliament this Wednesday. “I’m calling on all political parties to support my ...
Good afternoon. Thank you for, in your very busy lives, turning up to this meeting today. On October 14th last year New Zealanders overwhelmingly voted for change. That is exactly what this new government is bringing. New Zealand First campaigned to ‘take back our country’ and stop the disastrous economic ...
This year is about getting real with Kiwis and discussing the tough issues, as the National Government exacerbates inequality and divides New Zealand, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said ...
The Government adding Significant Natural Areas (SNAs) to its already roaring environmental policy bonfire is an assault on the future of wildlife that makes Aotearoa unique. ...
After 12 years of fighting to protect our moana we are finding ourselves back at square one and back at court. Today, the Environmental Protection Agency is sitting in Hawera to reconsider an application from Trans-Tasman Resources to dig up 50 million tonnes of the seabed in South Taranaki. This ...
Minister Shane Jones’ decision to step away from a seabed mining project is evidence of the murky waters surrounding the Government’s fast-track legislation. ...
The growth of Treaty of Waitangi clauses in legislation caused so much worry that a special oversight group was set up by the last government in a bid to get greater coherence in the publicservice on Treaty matters. When ministers first considered the need for tighter oversight in 2021, there ...
The growth of Treaty of Waitangi clauses in legislation caused so much worry that a special oversight group was set up by the last government in a bid to get greater coherence in the publicservice on Treaty matters. When ministers first considered the need for tighter oversight in 2021, there ...
The Coalition Government’s miscalculation saga continues as it has forgotten an eyewatering $90 million gap in its interest deductibility cost figures, say Labour Finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds and Revenue Spokesperson Deborah Russell. ...
He Pou a Rangi Climate Change Commission has today released advice that says if the Government doesn’t act now New Zealand is at risk of not meeting its climate goals. ...
The Coalition Government has today confirmed it is abandoning first home buyers who are struggling to get ahead, says Labour Finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds. ...
Transport Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed the passing of legislation to move light electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) into the road user charges system from 1 April. “It was always intended that EVs and PHEVs would be exempt from road user charges until they reached two ...
New Zealand is strengthening its ability to combat illegal fishing outside its domestic waters and beef up regulation for its own commercial fishers in international waters through a Bill which had its first reading in Parliament today. The Fisheries (International Fishing and Other Matters) Amendment Bill 2023 sets out stronger ...
Economists Carl Hansen and Professor Prasanna Gai have been appointed to the Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Committee, Finance Minister Nicola Willis announced today. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is the independent decision-making body that sets the Official Cash Rate which determines interest rates. Carl Hansen, the executive director of Capital ...
Apartment owners and buyers will soon have greater protections as further changes to the law on unit titles come into effect, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “The Unit Titles (Strengthening Body Corporate Governance and Other Matters) Amendment Act had already introduced some changes in December 2022 and May 2023, and ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters will travel to Egypt and Europe from this weekend. “This travel will focus on a range of New Zealand’s traditional diplomatic and security partnerships while enabling broad engagement on the urgent situation in Gaza,” Mr Peters says. Mr Peters will attend the NATO Foreign ...
Transport Minister Simeon Brown is encouraging all road users to stay safe, plan their journeys ahead of time, and be patient with other drivers while travelling around this Easter long weekend. “Road safety is a responsibility we all share, and with increased traffic on our roads expected this Easter we ...
About 1.4 million New Zealanders will receive cost of living relief through increased government assistance from April 1 909,000 pensioners get a boost to Superannuation, including 5000 veterans 371,000 working-age beneficiaries will get higher payments 45,000 students will see an increase in their allowance Over a quarter of New Zealanders ...
Ensuring social housing is being provided to those with the greatest needs is front of mind as the Government restarts social housing tenancy reviews, Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka says. “Our relentless focus on building a strong economy is to ensure we can deliver better public services such as social ...
The Kermadec Ocean Sanctuary will not go ahead, with Cabinet deciding to stop work on the proposed reserve and remove the Bill that would have established it from Parliament’s order paper. “The Kermadec Ocean Sanctuary Bill would have created a 620,000 sq km economic no-go zone,” Oceans and Fisheries Minister ...
Dam safety regulations are being amended so that smaller dams won’t be subject to excessive compliance costs, Minister for Building and Construction Chris Penk says. “The coalition Government is focused on reducing costs and removing unnecessary red tape so we can get the economy back on track. “Dam safety regulations ...
The coalition Government is expanding the medium-scale adverse event classification to parts of the North Island as dry weather conditions persist, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay announced today. “I have made the decision to expand the medium-scale adverse event classification already in place for parts of the South Island to also cover the ...
The passing of legislation giving effect to coalition Government tax commitments has been welcomed by Finance Minister Nicola Willis. “The Taxation (Annual Rates for 2023–24, Multinational Tax, and Remedial Matters) Bill will help place New Zealand on a more secure economic footing, improve outcomes for New Zealanders, and make our tax system ...
Science, Innovation and Technology Minister Judith Collins and Tertiary Education and Skills Minister Penny Simmonds today announced plans to transform our science and university sectors to boost the economy. Two advisory groups, chaired by Professor Sir Peter Gluckman, will advise the Government on how these sectors can play a greater ...
The Budget will deliver urgently-needed tax relief to hard-working New Zealanders while putting the government’s finances back on a sustainable track, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The Finance Minister made the comments at the release of the Budget Policy Statement setting out the Government’s Budget objectives. “The coalition Government intends ...
The coalition Government will look at options to address a zoning issue that limits how much financial support Queenstown residents can get for accommodation. Cabinet has agreed on a response to the Petitions Committee, which had recommended the geographic information MSD uses to determine how much accommodation supplement can be ...
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Defence Minister Judith Collins has thanked the Chief of Army, Major General John Boswell, DSD, for his service as he leaves the Army after 40 years. “I would like to thank Major General Boswell for his contribution to the Army and the wider New Zealand Defence Force, undertaking many different ...
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The Coalition Government is contributing more than $1 million to support the establishment of an emergency multi-agency coordination centre in Northland. Emergency Management and Recovery Minister Mark Mitchell announced the contribution today during a visit of the Whangārei site where the facility will be constructed. “Northland has faced a number ...
New Zealanders have enjoyed a broader range of voices telling the story of Aotearoa thanks to the creation of Whakaata Māori 20 years ago, says Māori Development Minister Tama Potaka. The minister spoke at a celebration marking the national indigenous media organisation’s 20th anniversary at their studio in Auckland on ...
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COMMENTARY:By Ronny Kareni Since the atrocious footage of the suffering of an indigenous Papuan man reverberates in the heart of Puncak by the brute force of Indonesia’s army in early February, shocking tactics deployed by those in power to silence critics has been unfolding. Nowhere is this more evident ...
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Opposition MPs and unions are criticising a proposal by New Zealand’s Ministry of Pacific Peoples to cut staff by 40 percent. The country’s largest trade union — The Public Service Association — says the ministry has informed staff that it is looking to shed 63 of 156 positions. Opposition MPs ...
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It’s good to see The Greens improving their represetation in Auckland, and adding more Maori candidates. They’ve also gone with some rejuventation, as some longer term MPs have slipped down the rankings.
But have you read Andrea Vance’s article in Stuff on the subject? Unethical and disingenuous spring immediately to mind – what a cow!
That’s the article I tried to link to. I don’t see a problem with Vance’s article. Will fix the link.
Except maybe Vance’s accentuating the overseas links for the 5 bios at the bottom. I would like to have known who the other top 20 MPs are on the list.
Take a critical look at what she says about the candidates – do you really think the way she has described them is ok?
“FIVE ON THE RISE IN NEW-LOOK GREEN LIST
GARETH HUGHES, 32. Oceans spokesman and baby-faced father of two. Has led public campaigns opposing deep-sea oil-drilling. Was once arrested while chained to a fence dressed as Ronald McDonald, protested the use of genetically modified ingredients in fast food.
JULIE ANNE GENTER, 34. US-born, grew up in Los Angeles before moving to Auckland to become a transport planner. The party’s candidate for the key Epsom seat. Says she’s “into lively streets, real food and bicycles”.
MOJO MATHERS, 47. London-born, the country’s first deaf MP. The mother-of-three was named after the song “Got my Mojo Working”.
JAMES SHAW, 41. Business consultant specialising in sustainable development. Stood as a list candidate while still living in London in 2008 to campaign for the expatriate vote. In 2011, dressed as the Green Lantern for a campaign fundraiser.
EUGENIE SAGE, 56. Once a press secretary to then-housing minister Helen Clark. Calls herself a “green greenie” and party members liken her to former leader Jeanette Fitzsimons. Was a sacked Environment Canterbury regional councillor.”
i don’t actually see anything that necessarily ‘bad’ about those descriptions..
..it’s hardly vitriol..
..and i do think you are being a tad precious..
..tho’ it’s a shame vance
.. missed perhaps kennedy grahams’ most powerful-weapon/feature..
..his death-stare…
..i keep on half-expecting laser-beams to shoot out..
..and to fry whichever rightwing-ratbag has spurred his ire..
and my take wd be:..(from observations made doing commentaries on q-time in parliament for far longer than i should have..)
hughes:..cursed with a baby-face..which stalls impressions of gravitas..(but which..as a fellow baby-facer.. i can tell him he will be grateful for as he gets older..as all around him wrinkle..that is the good news..)
..i have never ever seen him really fire in parliament..(maybe he has yet to hit his stride..)
..and i see that at some stage delahunty seduced him into her costume-as-protest inclinations..
..and suckered him into a chicken-suit..(where is the dignity..?..i hear you ask..)
..and young/new/current greens should take that as a warning..
..if you see delahunty bearing down on you wielding chicken-costumes/flummery ..
..and the like..
..run..run for the hills..!..
genter:..to me genter is the most interesting/capable of the next generation of green mp’s..
..her performances against a lumbering/clumsy brownlee in parliament are a delight to behold..
..she verbally dances around him..a darting dragonfly to his shrek..
..and if she is not minister of transport in a new govt..
..there is no justice in this world..
..and if genter gets this gig..we will have inner-city bikeways..and the like.. coming out of our ears..
..and this is a good thing..
mathers:..not much to say..except the mojo-revelation begging the question:..
..does her ‘mojo’ really work..
..shaw:..a blank canvas..i know nothing of him..but i note he too got delahuntyed..)
sage:..a very serious person..
..takes everything pretty seriously..
..lot’s of browns/greens in her house..?
..(and perhaps the most ‘mung-bean’ of these listed mp’s..)
(n.b. i have never met/seen any of these people in person…this is all ‘psychic’/an orifice-pluck..on my part..)
Phil
Dave Kennedy, from Invercargill, has secured the no. 19 spot. He writes a blog, Local Bodies and if you’d like someone to vouch for him, I’ll declare that my brother-in-law will make an excellent Green MP. He’s hard-working and sincere, plus he’s got his head around almost every possible issue and wherehe hasn’t, he’s working on it.. Here’s my post on Dave’s rise and rise.
http://robertguyton.blogspot.co.nz/2014/05/dave-kennedy-19-today.html
hello robert..what percentage does he need to get in..?
Hi Phil
Good to hear that you and your dogs are in rude health – vegans rule, at least they seem to in Invercargill where the movement has some very active and entertaining members who appear at all sorts of events, peddling their animal-products-free wares (muffins to die for!). Jordan Wyatt, you might know him, vegan activist extraordinaire. I’m not sure what ‘percentage’ Dave needs. It seems to me that if he just keeps on doing what he’s doing, he’ll get there. He’s dogged 🙂 The Nat candidates down here are extra-flakey this time around, a Philip Morris tobacco man/boy and a blond who declared her wish to ‘troop around Parliament in my stilettos’. They look very foolish beside Dave’s poise.
phil
sounds like the real gen.
It’s
1 Damning by faint praise – focusing on trivia and leaving almost anything of real worth out
2 Making sure she includes at least one negative or at least ‘clownish’ activity from the point of view of potential voters
Vitriol would have been better – easier to see
so..why don’t you give us what you would have liked to see..?
..give us those ‘real worth’ bits you bemoan being excluded..
..(bullet-points will suffice..)
GARETH HUGHES
– Greenpeace activist and campaign coordinator
JULIE ANNE GENTER
– 5 years’ private sector experience in transport and urban planning
MOJO MATHERS
– Holds degrees in mathematics and conservation forestry
– First profoundly deaf MP in New Zealand history
– Founding member of the Malvern Hills Protection Society
JAMES SHAW
– Extensive private sector experience focusing on corporate social responsibility and leadership development
EUGENIE SAGE
– Veteran environmental activist
– Undemocratically deposed former ECan councillor
… and that’s just what I can find with a quick search. Imagine what journalists could uncover if they asked actual questions!
+1 Jan
My immediate response was the same as yours Jan. I thought it deliberately tried to reinforce the idea being promulgated by the right that the Green Party candidates are all a bit flakey.
Thanks Karen – precisely. The hidden message was ‘would you vote for this collection of loons?’
hint:..if seeking political-gravitas..
..(and if yr policies are portrayed in the media as ‘loony’..to begin with..)
..don’t dress in chicken/green-lantern-suits..
..or if doing so..do it in the privacy of yr own home..
..(shouldn’t that be a ‘given’..?..)
..and certainly then don’t expect everyone to just ignore that chicken-suit-period in yr lives..
..i thought the chicken-suits were a bad idea back then..
..(for just those reasons..)
..and i still do..
..and to continue the bird-metaphor..
..it’s an albatross those involved hung around their own necks..
a witty/well-written/potent protest-placard/sign will outdo a chicken-suit any day of the week..
..in getting a message thru/across..
(tho’..i must confess..that at an vivisectionists’-conference demo in hamilton..
..some years back..
..i had far too much fun dressed in a realistic gorilla suit..carrying a potent anti-vivisection sign/placard..
..and roaming on my own..thru the malls..terrifying the good burghers of hamilton..)
“The hidden message was ‘would you vote for this collection of loons?’”
Yup, I thought the same. Snide & mocking. It could be the sub editor’s work but if Vance is responsible she should be ashamed of herself.
Precisely.
One woman putting down a group of other women – and one baby-faced young father. Perhaps it takes a woman to recognise the vitriolic sentiments in the words of another woman.
I don’t think it’s predominantly sexist really, Anne -it’s the old hidden ‘right agenda’ in a slightly more subtle form than usual. I think the trick to seeing what she is up is to envisage the audience she is targeting.
There are national voters out there who would sooner eat their young than vote for anything as ‘common’ as labour – you know the kind I mean – the semi-educated upwardly mobile with fragile egos – but who can associate with the more upmarket concept of conservation. They are, however, easily diverted by associations with ‘loonies’ – they take themselves very seriously and hate to be laughed at
crikey jan m..!
..you don’t think you are over-thinking this..?
..just ever so slightly..?
Spot on JanM
I’m a Labour voter but I really do hope Julie Anne Genter gets to add ‘Right Honourable” to her CV after she becomes Transport Minister later this year.
That would be very unlikely ScottGN
The Title of “Right Honourable” is limited to the following positions.
1. Governor General
2. Prime Minister
3. Speaker of the House
4. Chief Justice.
Just which of these positions do you think she will be occupying in the event that the left can form a Government?
Perhaps you mean “Honourable” which would put her in the same category as John Banks.
Ha ha that gave me a chuckle Alwyn, “Honourable and Banks”
After proceedings conclude at the old bailey his title may well change to the “dishonourable bent Bankie”
Yes I think you can take that as a given that Labour will appoint Julie Anne as the Transport Minister. There are a number of reasons, one being she is the best credentialed candidate from any of the Left bloc. Another is the obvious concessions that Labour has to make, it’s hardly likely they are going to give Norman the Finance portfolio is it. It has a slightly insincere element also, by flinging hospital passes to the Greens, letting them push for costly Auckland Rail Loop, axing some of Nationals major roading projects. This makes Transport a tough portfolio, however I think Genter and the Greens will make a good go of it.
Vance has certainly linked with every foreign reference she could find. I agree with you that she’s trying to be cunning and write a very negative piece while appearing neutral. Happily, I don’t think potential Green voters are too swayed by xenophobia. All Vance has done is show her own prejudices.
It also depends how many people took much notice of the bottom bit. I paid most attention to the actual article – which was fairly straight forward. I skimmed the thumb nail sketches at the bottom, because I know about those people. I was a little frustrated the rest of the list wasn’t shown. I did look for it on the Green Party website, but it wasn’t up early on this morning.
Top 20 on list:
TUREI, Metiria
NORMAN, Russel
HAGUE, Kevin
SAGE, Eugenie
HUGHES, Gareth
DELAHUNTY, Catherine
GRAHAM, Kennedy
GENTER, Julie Anne
MATHERS, Mojo
LOGIE, Jan
CLENDON, Dave
WALKER, Holly
SHAW, James
ROCHE, Denise
BROWNING, Steffan
DAVIDSON, Marama
COATES, Barry
HART, John
KENNEDY, Dave
ELLEY, Jeanette
https://www.greens.org.nz/press-releases/green-party-unveils-strong-party-list-2014-election
genter too low..
..(how can delahunty have done better than her..?.good grief..!..)
..davidson..far far too low..(she should be in the top six..)
..and elley..?..really..?
It’s not about your perceptions Phillip, its about how the Party members see things,
Lazy me would like to know from anyone with the information at hand in their head what % of the Party vote will the Green Party need to get Marama Davidson into the Parliament,
Right now my intention is to Party vote tactically which means for me a vote for Mana or Mana/internet should the alliance of the 2 occur,
i do tho have a conflicting imperative of believing that Marama will make an excellent MP which might as we get closer to E day have me voting in that vein…
provincial/regional block-voting also has a large part to play..
..that’s how that guy mike from nelson got in..way back then..
..and as noted..the christchurch greens have ended strongly..
..(i smell block-voting redux..)
If every vote cast was to count the Green percentage to get 16 MPs, which appears to be her list position, would be about (16/120) * 100 or about 13.4%.
In practice there are always some wasted votes so it will be less than that and they will need around 13%. Tough ask in my view as the party usually drops below their poll results when it comes to an election.
‘Work Ability Assessments’ done for Work and Income, and the private, outsourced, supposedly “independent” providers that have been contracted to deliver this new “service”.
Learn more about what is coming to YOU now as part of the newest phase in the implementation of welfare reforms:
http://accforum.org/forums/index.php?/topic/16092-work-ability-assessments-done-for-work-and-income-%E2%80%93-partly-following-acc%E2%80%99s-approach-a-revealing-fact-study/
This is stuff NO mainstream media will report to you! It is a comprehensive study giving a detailed overview of what led to the introduction of this program, about the new provisions in the Social Security Act, how it all compares with what ACC do in the way of assessments, who the providers are, who they employ to deliver what kind of services, and what legal implications there will be.
Also included is an analysed interview by Director for Welfare Reform, Sandra Kirikiri, from MSD, who gave an interview on Radio NZ National a month or so ago, as well as some revealing OIA responses on related matters.
This is stuff that should also be discussed leading up to the general election, but as it seems to be “too sensitive”, most politicians seem reluctant to touch it.
There is also still some information on the more “traditional”, also supposedly “independent” medical and work capability assessors that WINZ have so far used, and who they will apparently also continue to use – designated doctors, and what they are about:
http://accforum.org/forums/index.php?/topic/15463-designated-doctors-%e2%80%93-used-by-work-and-income-some-also-used-by-acc/
Worth noting re all this, even a government friendly “blogger” from the “other side” appears to now accept, that not all is going right with the welfare reforms that “auntie” Paula Bennett and her buddies from this government have served up to us:
http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2014/05/a_disabling_bug.html
P.S.: Many thanks to a few loyal, dedicated friends, who made the efforts to collate this information, and put it all together, working with affected. There’s more info where this comes from, but I will not tire you with it now.
Well done very good work your’ve undertaken.
Wallace Chapman on Radionz had interesting discussion on voting this morning.
Other countries – have compulsory voting. Have option of not voting for any of above. ( Even though we have MMP which offers more choice than the bi-party Westminster model that could be good.) Thinking of a start of 16 years age. Ireland has been working with people in planning changes, they have been chosen at random, and I think the number is 66. (I think that we should have the option of working on policy, drawn at random from a group who have done a diploma study of basic government policy matters. It is time to have informed people having input from the citizens. And the diploma people will put their own names forward, so there should be wider background.)
And we still have levels of turnout that they would be proud of, without compulsory voting. I’m not sure what this fetish for doing things some foreign but often worse way is.
Yeah, listened to it at the airport. I may have to start getting up earlier on sunday morning
Am also in favor of compulsory voting, we have compulsory registering to vote so why not, it seems a small price to pay for a strong democracy once every 3 years to cast a vote,
Allowing voting to occur over a week long period in selected polling places with the main event still on the one day would make it easier for everyone to participate…
Is there a quota in newsrooms of crime, disaster, tragedy, outbursts of human or animal behaviour that is grotesque? Which might explain why we have to hear the latest shooting/ outrage from the USA. It seems that country is our near neighbour, close to our hearts, full of people we have an interest in. Though presumably there are matters happening in nearer Cook Islands, Tonga and so on that should find its way into our National news. They do have their own Pacific News slot but if sport can find its way out of its special slot to the main news, so could pacific news.
The USA is on the edge of the Pacific and is far from peaceful as that name implies. But Hawaii is involved with USA. There are Maori who are interested in Hawaii. Let’s hear from that country as they have already had their association with the USA decided by that country in the early 1900’s. We may have to follow that pattern. It might be politic to form associations and take an interest in them now as a primary way of awareness of happenings in that part of the Pacific.
They are all dramatic, heart rending stories which capture attention, soak up the imagination, and completely avoid challenging the narrative, actions or power structures of the elite and the wealthy.
+1
There’s also the humdrum explanation that the news comes from a couple of international wire services, which used to be AP and Reuters. There are other agencies which specialise in a wider variety of news, but they don’t tend to get used in Aotearoa. Thank Atua for the internet, even though it needs taking with many grains of salt. That’s the mechanism, but the fundamental explanation is to dumb down the electorate. I’m convinced of that.
“..There are other agencies which specialise in a wider variety of news, but they don’t tend to get used in Aotearoa..”
(ahem..!..whoar..?..)
Maybe we could look at the up coming election a bit like the election at the end of WW2 in britain and vote Key out now that everything is OK since the biggest financial crisis since the 1930’s is over according to him anyway and short circuit any need to listen to anymore of his Tory bullshit.
That way he’ll be able to satisfy his ego and not go down the path that he took during the crash of 1987 and be part of the global finance heist that brought about the 2008 crash.
The arrogance of this govt to expect us to swallow any more BS about how well we are doing is appalling since Key has to return in the next election to serve his masters on the TPPA to complete the job which actually started with Roger Douglas and got checked mainly by the ineptitude of previous National govts and was nearly annihilated before the 2008 crash ,ie its been in the pipeline alot longer than the present round of selling off the last of NZ to the rest of the world on their terms
Also it would be nice to have Labour NZF and the Greens holding the Nats against the wall so that they cant move an inch unless the aforesaid coalition says so like National has done for 2 terms
For the politically addicted, both TV1 and TV3 will have their latest polling out tonight, a hint from TV1 is David Cunliffe’s 2% rise in polled support,(which hopefully has also translated across to the Party %)…
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/property/news/article.cfm?c_id=8&objectid=11260348
Springpark is seen as an affordable homes project, with townhouses in stage one priced from $399,000 to $554,000
How easily $400-$500k has become entrenched into our vocab as ” affordable”, and accepted by many as being do.To many this is still priced at an unaffordable level and will be unattainable.
Its a conversation for, of, and by the middle class, those that cannot afford such prices simply become like the unemployed/beneficiaries non-persons to be ignored,
There is plenty of political hay to be made in the Boo Hoo that the prices are out of reach of the children of the current generation of the middle class who in all reality created the un-affordability in the first place,
Here’s a few reasons:
The property ladder, Mc-mansions of 200+ square meters,
The property ladder, the love of the rental property, 200,000 previous ‘homes’ crossed over to being ‘rentals’ in 20 years,
Free money, the accommodation supplement on the surface a payment to help those with low incomes,
Free money, the ability for those owning rental property to write of any ‘losses’ on such property against other income including wages, hell why wouldn’t they and Governments have allowed this largely unknown,(except by those in the know),to carry on for the past 20 years,
Is there a ‘coincidence’ in the property ladder having transferred 200,000 former homes into ‘rentals’ in 20 years and the fact that the tax lawyers 20 years ago came up with the tax dodge where losses on the ‘rental’ were allowed to be written off against taxes on other income including wages,
My brother who paid out 3 grand for the privilege of learning how to do this at a seminar run by the Australian tax lawyers who imported this little dodge and a bunch of drooling real estate agents and dived into 2 rental properties as a result would say a big Yes to that question…
Along related lines bad12, I noticed, at the bottom of this piece on the sad, accidental death of an elderly Cockle Bay man, the estimated value of his house.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/10081337/Man-dies-in-lift-shaft-fall-in-east-Auckland
Similarly, one does not hear mention of certain suburbs on the news without the inclusion adjectives like “exclusive” or “upmarket” – “exclusive Herne Bay,” “upmarket Parnell,” etc. It seems as if touting real estate wherever possible has become one of the media’s core functions.
The media targets an audience with disposable income and discretionary time. Not the hard up struggling working class trying to juggle 3 part time jobs. So yes, you’re about right.
But even if they do target such people, is it really necessary, relevant or even decent to mention the estimated dollar value of a man’s house when the story is that he has died falling down a lift shaft in it?
Nope but society has moved to the point where people are only valued by how rich they are.
“How easily $400-$500k has become entrenched into our vocab as ” affordable””
One of the problems is interest rates. In 2008 a $300,000 25yr mortgage had repayments of $580 per week. Today a $391,000 25yr mortgage costs $580 per week. That’s the difference 6% interest makes against 9%.
House prices went up but to a certain level the actual cost of the house did not. If interest rates stay low the $390k house costs the home buyer today the same as a $300k house cost in 2008.
Labour are determined to keep interest rates low so we won’t see house prices falling under them.
It may also interest that the $300k mortgage fell to $445 per week in 2009, that’s a saving of $7020 annually that only a mortgage holder received. People who owned property(and had a mortgage) didn’t just make a handsome capital gain over the last six years they also had a very, very, substantial increase in disposable income… and a tax cut.
Martyn Bradbury on whipping up the bullshit terrorist threat in New Zealand :
“There’s something terribly manufactured by this sudden exposure of domestic terrorism at a time the Government is about to face intense scrutiny over how the intelligence agencies have been behaving behind our backs.”
Manufacturing a domestic Muslim threat in Auckland as Drone strike leaks loom –
http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2014/05/24/manufacturing-a-domestic-muslim-threat-in-auckland-as-drone-strike-leaks-loom/
”How long is a piece of string” is usually my response to discussions about the length of my expected life,
Turns out, unwittingly, that response is not that far off of the mark with Genetic science turning increasingly to the study of Telomeres as the ”culprit” when it comes to not only aging but various other diseases like Cancers as well,
Are Telomeres the key to aging and cancer,???
http://www.learn.genetics.utah.edu/content/chromosones/telomeres
Another interesting link to the science which even goes so far as to identify the ”culprit” as ‘Ring 1b’ a particular protein in the extremely complex activity in cell division and renewal,
http://www.bioscience technology.com
The above story is only a day old, i suspect the link i provide,(as usual), wont work, the Google is: Misguided DNA-repair proteins caught in the act.
It appears that Telomeres appear at the end of al DNA sequences,(strings), and are likened by scientists to the tabs at the end of shoelaces, they use the analogy that like a shoelace without the tab on the end a sequence of DNA will without telomeres attached simply fray with dire results,
It appears that as cells in our bodies divide and replicate themselves the telomeres at the end of DNA sequences shorten with each division, as the telomeres shorten the risk of disease, cancers, diabetes rises,
The Vegans will be pleased to note that ”life-style” change ‘might’ actually provoke the telomeres to lengthen or at least slow the rate of shortening, this apparently isn’t conclusive as the study group was small,
Some people are born with a genetic propensity to have already shortened telomeres on their particular strands of DNA,
Lifestyle changes may lengthen telomeres, a measure of cell aging,
http://www.uscf.edu/…/lifestyle-changes-may-lengthen-telomeres-measure-cell-aging
“..The Vegans will be pleased to note that ”life-style” change ‘might’ actually provoke the telomeres to lengthen or at least slow the rate of shortening..”
..that explains why all the ‘elderly’ vegans i know are all in such rude-good-health..(men and women..)
..a couple of years ago..a mid-seventy-something vegan (for over 30 yrs) and i..spent the large part of a day..
..splitting a winter-supply pile of wood/logs..(from felled trees..)..
..i was..and am still..amazed at the energy/strength/stamina he displayed on that day..
..and he/that is just one example of many i cd cite..
..so..our telemeres are growing..eh..?
..while those of the carnivores are shrinking..eh..?
..that’s cool..!
..that’ll do me for a takeaway..(vegan..of course..!..)
..(and as for the carnivores..wd u like bacon with that..?..
..yr telemeres need to be shrunk more..eh..?..)
Thought you would be pleased Phillip, bad making your day good since, well since the day after making it bad,
The discussion on ‘telomeres’ is also of relevance to the discussion points i have been making about,(especially) Lung Cancers in the past couple of days,
Looked at negatively ie: 90% of Lung Cancers appear in those who have or do smoke leads to the obvious conclusion that smoking must then be the cause of lung Cancer,
However, that negative masks the reality where 90% of smokers will never develop a Lung Cancer and perhaps the answer to why this is lies in the length of the individuals telomers…
i must have missed that ‘bad day’..
..i had a very interesting day yesterday..
..that i can talk about soon..
..but not yet..
and tho’ this is good ‘news’..(especially from the animals’ points of view..)..
..(and good to see it repeated..)
..i should note that at that best-little-news-website-in-the-world..that i run/do..
..i have been all over telemores..like a rash..
..and since 2008…
..eh..?
http://whoar.co.nz/?s=telomeres
The links don’t work for me.
Instead, I found another one here which works!:
http://learn.genetics.utah.edu/content/chromosomes/telomeres/
…very interesting
peanut butter and red wine are supposed to be good for the telomeres…but here is some nutrition advice ( meat eater or vegetarian or vegan)
http://takingeverybiteseriously.com/good-nutrition-the-fountain-of-youth-improve-your-telomeres/
listening to Willie Jackson on Arrow FM yesterday. H was intervieing a national party woman maori list mp and she stressed several time the need for radio stations. Why is it that tribesmen in the Hindu Kush can have a local station for their valley but there are none in New Zealand? is it because Kiwis are a) just too mean or b) just to fucking stupid!
c) Both
Oh dear. Does he mean that he is not certain that National will romp in? Surely the clever clogs has convinced the voters of his integrity and clever handling of the economy?
“Prime Minister John Key is predicting a “tight and tough” election with the Government up against a “left wing block” of parties…..
Mr Key told more than 250 party faithful at a conference in Hamilton today National could not be lulled into a false sense of security by high polling numbers ahead of the September 20 general election.
“He said National was not just up against the lower polling Labour but its left counterparts including the Greens, New Zealand First, and Mana.
Mr Key said the party had to work hard to keep voters interested and the Government would begin making policy announcements soon.
So now that the Budget is over what wonderful surprises will they offer or will they wait to get some excellent ideas from Labour/Greens? Wonder what the polls on TV tonight will show?
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11261487
as opposed to his four head self serving block on the right.
Seen the polls? Everyone voting for Labour policies!
Testing block quote as the instruction has other bits on it.
<blockquote cite=””> or just
<blockquote>
So says Rodney just discovering that children depend on appropriate boundaries.
I wonder how many Green mps will turn up?
http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2014/05/25/guest-blog-not-in-my-name-why-you-should-be-at-the-candle-light-vigil-against-drone-strikes-outside-john-keys-house-tom-tonight/
I assume this is a protest which has the full support of the green party?
You will go I hope BM as a true bastion of morality and the failure of drone ethic? See you there OK?
???
your point is?
“I assume this is a protest which has the full support of the green party?”
And your assumption is worth exactly zero.
I just noticed the author Ruby Haazen was this individual.
http://zackarateisland.blogspot.co.nz/2008/10/pimp-my-bike.html
Obviously an integral part of the Green political machine.
And?
So is this “protest” an official green party electioneering piece?
I don’t know how you got to that conclusion. Walk me through it.
ps You might like to start with your statement “obviously an integral part of the green political machine”.
I think what you meant to say was “has a sticker”.
Shall we pretend I’ve already let you blather on about secret leftie commie agendas for a few more comments inbetween me asking you to clarify your statements (which of course you won’t) and skip directly to the inevitable conclusion?
Right, so you reckon this was all her own idea?
Just using her initiative and all that?
I see you have declined my kind offer to save you some time. So be it.
What does “obviously an integral part of the green political machine” mean?
Or maybe Kim Dotcom organised it?
Actually, it seems to have been organised by Eva Wrassky.
And the MOA project seems to have been coordinating it.
Aww karol you spoil all my fun
And the Internet Party?
An interesting look violence
Yep Draco. And then the question of provocation arises. Violence is not OK but those on the receiving end can hit back but at their peril. Interesting clip.
That video clip – is it all staged? Based on demonstrating what can happen. It seems a bit of a mock up. It seems like the case of the journalist who won some reporting prize but was found to have cherry-picked a number of known cases into one and presented that as a factual truth. Bad things need to be discussed, the extent of wrong behaviour revealed. But if being dramatised for the public it needs to be presented as outdoor theatre, role playing, if it is. There is enough bullshit around without helping partisan agencies inventing stuff.
Why would they do that if the whole purpose was to see how the general public would react?
I think gw is wondering whether the reactions were part of the staged performance. I wondered that too.
Yes felix has understood. I don’t want to be manipulated or have others be so, about important things. I think harrassment and violence are important. I hate people crying Wolf.
Good point. I coudn’t tell if the filmed reactions were real or staged.
The film was made by the ManKind Initiative. A quick google tells me they are the only NGO support for men who are victims of domestic violence. They believe that gender politics should be compeletely taken out of anti-violence work. They also appear to believe that misrepresenting statistics will further their cause (the 40% figure). Can’t see it myself, although it would be good to raise awareness of different kinds of violence and how they affect different people in various ways.
Ah, yes, that would be a good question.
They also appear to believe that misrepresenting statistics will further their cause (the 40% figure).
Yeah weka, I was wondering about that as well.
Get ready for a whole new kind of climate change lawsuit
Which is a rather interesting action. The insurance companies took the premiums knowing how things stood in regards to possible flooding and now they’re trying to back out of paying out the costs and lump it all on local government. If they succeed then it will actually prevent the council from making the necessary repairs/upgrades due to an even larger shortfall of money.
This really stinks of the insurance companies working to protect profits at the communities expense.
Wow, that is some BS. I suppose that it just shows the lengths that some people will go to to prop up oil industry profits.
Affordable fossil fuels are going away regardless of what the corporate PR says. The only question is – will we be ready for it and thus be able to maintain some semblance of a decent lifestyle and society, or is it going to be a total shit fight/sudden collapse situation.
Bugger the Polls! …on latest Reid Research Poll…by Martyn Bradbury
“I hear tonights 3 News/Reid Research Poll will have National on 51% and will claim that 65% of Labour voters back National’s Budget. Before the Left collectively contemplate suicide a couple of things…..
http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2014/05/25/tonights-3-newsreid-research-poll-will-have-national-at-51/
Both Reid Research and Colmar had National up to 50-51%. While likely overestimating the support, it does suggest an underlying trend of rising support from a well received budget. But I think only the most partisan would have thought National’s ‘Do No Evil – Labour Lite’ Budget would have been poorly received.
Winston is still looking like being King.
i would suggest that National will do no better than the 2011 election, the question then is where will the evaporating Maori Party %of the Party Vote go,
The other question, will the Mana/Internet party alliance occur which may just produce a huge wild card into election 2014 especially if the Maori Party, as i expect, completely disappears from the Parliament,
Another wild card being can the allegations of former NZFirster,(he who would have i suggest inherited the crown from Winston), Brendon Who do any damage to that Party…
Yeah, I see National at around 45-47% at election time.
On the Maori Party vote, I wouldn’t quite discount them yet. Labour’s complete meltdown in Tamaki Makaurau might just give them a lifeline (I think Annette Skyes will beat Flavell) so they might be able to creep in with at least one seat, maybe two.
I’m still of the opinion that Mana/Internet (if it happens) won’t win any more than 2 seats.
NZ First is going to be the key here. If they get 4.5% that might actually make National’s job a lot easier of building a majority with Dunne and Seymour as coattails to cross the line. But unless Horan’s allegations take hold, it seems likely they’ll cross the line and be the balance of power.
Yes Tamaki-Makarau now has become a marginal seat in my opinion, there’s even a slight ell chance that the Green Parties Marama Davidson could squeak in there with a division of the vote among the other Parties,
i still believe that Labour are the most likely to take the seat,but hardly a certainty,
50/50 in Waiariki giving Flavell the haere ra,
If the alliance goes ahead, i am picking the ‘novelty’ of the Mana/Internet alliance along with some savvy advertising will give such an alliance 3–4% of the party vote which will still rely upon Hone or Annette winning either Te Tai Tokerau and/or Waiariki,
The last Roy Morgan polled Mana up at 1% so talk of the alliance seems to have boosted their support and polled Internet at 1.5%, i would suggest excellent numbers in a poll where the Labour and Green %’s also rose showing that thus far Mana/Internet are not cannibalizing their vote from those parties,
Yes what will NZFirst do, even describing that party is problematic, a centrist party with definitely defined left and right wings along with a large dash of red-neckism perhaps???,
Lolz, i was disappointed in Brendon Who’s insipid attack on Winston and the Party last week, but, every little bit helps and National shows how much they know they must have Winston and NZFirst back in the next Parliamet to have a hope in hell of forming a Government, by taking the vows of silence as Brendon Who attacked the integrity of His former mentor,
Recently Winston has gone strangely silent about the Greens, either having resiled from His former position on that Party or holding His counsel which might be a slight indicator of the chances of a change of Government…
17 weeks to go. National 68 seats, labour 48 seats, I think Cunliffe might even vote National. Cunliffe single figures for preferred prime minister.
Post budget poll bounce Naki man. Nothing to get too excited about.
Are you not getting sick of spinning the same rubbish Micky?
It is clear that the public do not want Labour and they want its leader even less. Winston at less than 5% is not good news for your lot either.
Happy days!
So, what do you thinks going to sink National.?
Everything’s looking pretty good at the moment, has Labour got some fantastic new policies that are going to swing the voters towards the left camp?
“has Labour got some fantastic policies that are going to swing the voters towards the left camp”
how about the proposed policy to push out the retirement age?
that policy is a winner
/sarc
Don’t forget the Capital gains tax, that’s going to have the voters flocking across the political divide in the 100,000’s
No wonder mickysavage is still so confident.
I expect the polls are overstating the gap by between 4 and 6 %, that National’s support will decline and that it is likely Peters will hold the balance of power after the election. Even last time in a campaign which was said to be one sided the margin of success was tiny.
As I replied to bad12 in another thread, if it wasn’t for that tea tape bollocks and the rena running aground National would have got an out right at the last election.
I’d be surprised if the same situation rears it’s head this time around.
Your crystal ball works in reverse too BM,???, the electorate still dining out on tax cuts got Slippery the PM and National a second term,
That sugar rush has worn off,(which is why Slippery even befor the ink had dried on the current budget thought up and released to the media a brand new ”tax cuts” policy which even His Finance Minister obviously knew nothing about),
It’s called desperation BM…
Tax cuts should be the priority of all governments
Lets the people decide what they want to do with their own money, not some ivory tower fuck knuckle who thinks they’ve got all the answers.
I think 6% is being overly optimistic. I suspect National’s support is overstated by around 3-4%. In 2011, the last two Colmar and Reid polls were out by around 3-4%. The polls that had National at 53-54% were pre-cupofteagate which I think people tend to forget. If anything, the polls did actually reflect a lessening of support from National after that.
So 3-4% overstated support seems likely using past data. Suggesting 6% is just having a bit of a punt.
Yes, that is what I think too. Still too close to call, with Peters getting to make the call.
Thanks Matthew. You realise you are destroying my lefty credibility by agreeing with me 😀
Maybe they could pinch a couple of natz. Oh, except they have none. The natz had to pinch Labour’s policies to make their budget work. They have nothing else. Btw, key is looking ancient. Cheating, lying deceiving etc. taking it’s toll.
Won’t need fantastic policies. Just the credible ones needed that resonate with NZ workers and Labour/Green will produce them Meanwhile the Nats will scramble to try and cover those policies which will look a bit desperate. It is probable that if an election was held today National simply wouldn’t win.
Lolz, the over confidence that is being exhibited here tonight by the brigade of ‘wing-nuts’ who all but disappeared following the last Roy Morgan Poll is what will sink National,
The fact that the lot of you post the last Roy Morgan tucked tail and slithered off someplace to hide tells me that you over confidence is wafer thin just as the current Governments ability to pass Legislation through the current Parliament is,
Delusional is the best expletive i can apply to those who think that this current motley crew will have the numbers in the next Parliament to ‘Govern alone’ without risking a spanking from the mods,
Fucks sake the pathetic current National Government cannot even gather the number to pass Legislation in the House to amend the Resource Management Act, lameduck and hamstrung spring to mind when i think of Slippery the PM’s current leadership…
Don’t the two land-line pollsters, Colmar Brunton and Reid Research do their polling on a monthly basis in election year? On that basis, I expected them to appear last week-end. Instead they delay it one week so that the poll included the election year “budget bounce”? No doubt the fan boys and girls at TV1 and TV3 assume they will be duly rewarded for their loyalty to King John II.
They do polls when TV3 and TV1 pay them to do polls. Much more logical to do them after the budget.
Much more logical to do a poll after a Nat. govt. election year budget, so that the numbers come down on the ‘right’ side of the political ledger.
it did seem as if there were no polls which came out after a raft of Nat corruption scandals and some solid policy announcements from Labour
Three more years! Three more years! Three more years!
Laughable, we are back to the future with ”National can govern alone with these numbers” polls which is the same old same old as occurred from the media last election,
Obvious the ‘wing-nuts’ needed ‘watering’ as their numbers here at the Standard have been seriously wilting after the last Roy Morgan,(down to one blossom a day for the past couple of weeks),
National at the moment cannot proceed in the Parliament with their idea of Resource heaven as they cannot muster enough votes to amend the present Legislation, SO, the most minor of swings that results in the loss of two votes from anywhere in the numbers that make up National’s present coalition is likely to turf National onto the opposition benches…
Interesting how Gower and the anchor talk up the 3 News poll as if it was totally accurate and the only one ever done – like it’s THE authority on what will happen come election time.
Interesting comment from Matthew Hooton on a Daily blog thread.
I Predict is laughable, wee Matty Hooton says that it is now being run by Victoria University which has me lamenting education standards at that particular institution,
Have a look at the % of the Party vote that they allocate to the Internet Party next time you are over that way,
i have a snigger at the ‘work’ of these future geniuses every time i visit…
It’s looking like a 3rd term for National, short of JK being caught on camera eating children…
Labour needs to ditch pushing the retirement age to 67. Why is a socialist party pushing people to work longer? The CGT is not a winner either. All people hear is ‘tax’. Expect the Nats to ram that down people’s throats close to election
Labour should pledge to use the CGT’s revenue to lower GST or low-income tax rates (or establish a threshold of not paying tax on the first $10,000 or something).
It means New Zealand can finally have a CGT which should take a bit of the heat out of the property market, broaden investment options and put more money in the back pocket of those most struggling.
The CGT was to allow Labour should they have won the 2011 election to implement the $5k pa free threshold. Now the CGT remains but the threshold has been lost. So to many this CGT could be seen as just another tax grab for the government.
http://www.kpmg.com/NZ/en/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/Taxmail/Documents/taxmail-15-July-11-issue-1.pdf
There is no evident DG that a CGT will do anything to alleviate the issue of property prices, as if it did then why was in 08 Labour predicting this “. Over 15 years, it will raise about $26
billion in total.”
https://www.labour.org.nz/sites/default/files/CGTWebdoct%20July%202011.pdf
“The CGT is not a winner either. All people hear is ‘tax’”
Yeah – but “Tax” preceeded by the word “Greed” is an easy sell.
I think Labour need to hammer harder at the beltway issues. Then they will get some traction. 🙂
I agree with you on that point.
Wow what a rubbish poll on TV3 just shows they only poll from Epsom, polls are not important it’s the election that counts, hopefully Russell Norman steps up he is the only hope. The issue is cunliffe he is disliked by the general public.
The latest Roy Morgan for the period May 5-18 paints a different picture with the left block still ahead although it too has taken a hit: http://www.roymorgan.com/morganpoll/new-zealand/voting-intention-summary
That was just 3 days ago. Yet Gower was so certain the TV3 poll was THE definitive one.
Umm… the left block wasn’t ahead in the last Roy Morgan poll.
National – 45.5%
Labour/Green – 44%
Left block: Labour 30.5+ Greens 13.5+ Mana 1+ Internet .5+ NZF 6 = 51.5
Right block: National 45.5+ Maori 1+ Act 1+ Cons 1+ United Future .5= 49
Other parties= .5.
Result: A Left or Right wing coalition is in Government depending on Winston Peters.
Playing hard and fast with the definition of “left block” by including NZ First within it. I think everyone agrees Winston could go either way and support left or right. But I wouldn’t call him “left-wing” myself. He’s radical centre. Left and right policies.
Yep, when is the next Roy Morgan out, that will probably send the ‘wing-nuts’ scurrying back under their beds in fear…
I dont think the polls will change much, they have been pretty stable for a while now in terms of Nats vs the left. The emergence of the Greens / Mana have taken a fair amount of the left vote from labour and means that their natural level of support will max out at 35ish as long as the greens are performing. If you are a righty you really only have one option as to where you put your vote.
The danger will be that joe public will fall for the Labours only 30 nats on 50 polling narrative and fall into the no point voting trap … that could significantly hollow out the labour vote on the day.
Pushing up the age for super will get many voters really energised and very enthusiastic to come out and cast their vote for Labour.
/sarc
bad12 – nah, they will conveniently ignore it by saying it’s not accurate, when it has shown to be closer to the election results than other polls.
30% + 11% = 41%. The Cunliffe is truly awesome. The assumptions here that National can only go down are truly heroic. The phone is off the hook. September 20th could signal the natural party of government gaining another record vote.
Yes i too can see a record being set, National the biggest party of opposition ever under the MMP regime…
Very poor numbers in polls,sorry buts its not acceptable
29.5% + 10.5% = 40% just imagine 24.5%+ 8%.
I find your lack of ambition disturbing.
If you’re going to pull numbers out of your arse, why not 15% and 3%?
Why not 15% and 3%? Cos that would just be silly. Not even The Cunliffe could be that bad.
MY PREDICTION OF ELECTION RESULT BASED ON POLLS SO FAR:
There are still four months to the election. A lot can change in that time. The budget euphoria has helped National here. But I don’t think this excitement will last, because the other parties are yet to announce their major policies in the next couple of months.
Based on the recent four polls and from past experience of the disparity between the per-election polls and the actual election results, here is my estimate/calculation/prediction/gut feeling of the probable party vote for various parties, rounded to whole numbers:
NATIONAL………..=42%
LABOUR…………..=32%
GREENS…………..=12%
NZ FIRST…………..=7%
CONSER…………..=2%
INTRNET……………=2%
MAORI……………….=1%
MANA………………..=1%
ACT…………………..=0%
UF…………………….=0%
Others(Round)…..=1%
If you’re right, and I believe you are, National really is in serious trouble. Things are going to get desperately dirty on the back of this I predict, also.
Interestingly, in the space of a month, National has risen 6% in your prediction! Labour has shed 4%. Internet/Mana are down 2%.
These are clearly very accurate and well-informed predictions and absolutely nothing to do with plucking numbers out of thin air. Though, this guess is at least a little better than the last.
http://thestandard.org.nz/from-slum-house-to-mega-man-mana-tip-connections/#comment-797694
There have been at least 4 polls since my last prediction.
Disraeli Gladstone, do you have a prediction for party votes?
Not really. We don’t know what might happen between now and election day. If you’re pointing a gun at my head to make a guess (and that’s all it really is) then I’d say something like:
National – 44-47%
Labour – 30-32%
Greens – 10-13%
Winston First – 4-6%
The Tories might grab 2%. Outside of that, I don’t think any other minor party will hit above 2%.