Open mike 26/05/2021

57 comments on “Open mike 26/05/2021 ”

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1. Jenny how to get there 1

   26 May 2021 at 7:53 am

   Don't Fly!

   You know it makes sense.

   The only way to hit net zero by 2050 is to stop flying

   Dreaming of electric planes and planting trees will not save our planet

   …..the commitment to net zero aviation by 2050 is really a commitment to zero aviation. Rather than hope new technology will magically rescue us, we should stop planning to increase fossil-fuel flights and commit to halving them within 10 years with an eye toward phasing them out entirely by 2050.

   https://www.ft.com/content/e00819ba-4814-11ea-aee2-9ddbdc86190d?
   • Ad 1.1

     26 May 2021 at 9:48 am

     You're happy to prevent anyone here being visited from overseas, any UN refugees to arrive, any workers or skilled specialists to come here at all, any tourists whatsoever to arrive here, and of course quite happy to prevent post-quarantine returnees and their children and grandchildren to arrive either.
     • Jenny how to get there 1.1.1

       26 May 2021 at 11:31 am

       Ad

       26 May 2021 at 9:48 am

       You're happy to prevent anyone here being visited from overseas, any UN refugees to arrive,……

       No, of course not.

       New Zealand National Film Unit

       "On November the 1st. 1944 700 Polish children arrived in Wellington on a troop ship with returning New Zealand soldiers….."

       https://www.nzonscreen.com/title/the-story-of-seven-hundred-polish-children-1966

       Fast forward ten years:

       My Mother and her best friend cross the Tasman Sea aboard the passenger liner the Wanganella to atttend the 1956 Australian Olympic Games. As she related it to me, the experience was one of the high-lights of her life.

       In the 50's and even into the 60's flying wasn't a thing.

       The Wanganella became a hostel ship for the construction workers and tunnelers for the Manapouri power station, The Wanganella was replaced by the legendary Oriana, which was destined to became the last passenger liner on the Tasman run. By1966 mass passenger air travel had made passenger liners uncompetitive.
       In 1973 the Oriana was recommissioned as a holiday cruise liner and later a floating hotel and tourist attraction in Japan and then China. Damaged in a severe storm in the Chinese port of Dalien in 2004, the Oriana was scrapped in 2005.

       The steam powered Wanganela and Oriana took 56 to 53 hours to cross the Tasman.

       Fast forward again into the 21st Century:

       A modern high speed gas turbine ferriy carrying over 800 passengers and cars and trucks can cross the Tasman in 24 hours. In Argentina such a service has been proved to be competitive with airlines.

       "You're happy to prevent anyone…."
       Ad

       Hi Ad, I am not happy to prevent anyone, doing anything. I just think that the airline industry instead of being propped up by government subsidies and loans should be left to die a natural death.

       How about this; Instead of propping up a dying industry with a $1 billion credit line, the government invest in buying Tasmanian built ocean going ferries to cross the Tasman.

       I am not forcing or preventing anyone from doing anything.

       As a way to hasten the comercial airline industry into i’s inevitable retirement, I am asking people of good will to do as I, and many other people of good will concerned about the climate to forego flying as a personal choice.

       https://www.ft.com/content/e00819ba-4814-11ea-aee2-9ddbdc86190d?
       • Treetop 1.1.1.1

         26 May 2021 at 11:40 am

         My mother and uncle were two of those Polish children who disembarked the General Randall on 1 November 1944.
       • Peter chch 1.1.1.2

         26 May 2021 at 12:21 pm

         So Jenny, you would be happy for our time sensitive exports to cease (as they are air dependent)? Time sensitive freight world wide is a huge part of the air industry.

         And these ferries, nasty old fossil fuelled diesel powered? To fill the gap left by air, would they not contribute just as much in the way of emissions?

         And air is a 'dying industry? No. It was hit by a once in a century pandemic and like many industries as a result of Covid, needed short term propping up.

         Your whole thesis is just unrealistic. What happened in 1944 or 1956 or whenever was appropriate to those times. The world has moved on and continues to evolve. Uninventing inventions is not an option. Mitigation and further development is.
         • Jenny how to get there 1.1.1.2.1

           26 May 2021 at 5:19 pm

           Peter chch

           26 May 2021 at 12:21 pm

           So Jenny, you would be happy for our time sensitive exports to cease (as they are air dependent)? Time sensitive freight world wide is a huge part of the air industry….

           Air dependent time sensitive foods are the epitome of bad food miles.

           Time sensitive air dependent exports, such as the live grayfish and oyster and Paua trade, out of season fresh berry trade, flown around the globe to supply high end restaurants in Tokyo, New York, London, Monaco, or to the kitchens and mansions and villas of the 1%. or to supply the busisness buffets of the big corporate board rooms.

           Talk about conspicous consumption.

           That this time sensitive luxury food trade 'is a huge part of the air industry' is why it's got to go.

           The world (and the climate) is best rid of it.

           Maybe if we took this food out of the mouths of the One Percenters New Zealanders might able to afford to buy it occasionally.

           1% of people cause half of global aviation emissions – study

           Researchers say Covid-19 hiatus is moment to tackle elite ‘super emitters’

           …..“The benefits of aviation are more inequitably shared across the world than probably any other major emission source,” he said. “So there’s a clear risk that the special treatment enjoyed by airlines just protects the economic interests of the globally wealthy.”

           https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/nov/17/people-cause-global-aviation-emissions-study-covid-19

           Everything you thought about the carbon footprint of imported food is wrong, says top professor

           Bananas from Dominican Republic and apples from New Zealand are among the most carbon-friendly foods

           Phobe Weston Science Correspondent

           Bananas imported from the Dominican Republic, apples from New Zealand and oranges from Brazil are among the most carbon-friendly foods UK consumers can buy, according to Professor David Reay, a climate scientist from the University of Edinburgh….

           But food miles do matter if the product has been transported by air. For this reason, Professor Reay says consumers should avoid eating out-of-season soft fruit such as raspberries and blueberries.

           A 100g box of blueberries grown locally or imported via ship will produce around 100g of carbon dioxide. If it’s flown in, that increases by ten times, pushing its carbon footprint up to more like 1kg.

           “If you want to go into the high carbon footprint foods then once it’s been air freighted you’re in real trouble. That’s when the food miles absolutely soar in terms of emissions. We should have a blanket ban on air freight,” said Professor Reay.

           https://www.independent.co.uk/news/food-miles-carbon-footprints-climate-change-sustainability-a9050406.html
           • Incognito 1.1.1.2.1.1

             26 May 2021 at 5:21 pm

             Do you eat Covid-19 vaccines for breakfast? How many in one session?
             • Jenny how to get there …

               26 May 2021 at 7:30 pm

               Qué?
               • Incognito …

                 26 May 2021 at 9:38 pm

                 It is very simple. You went from “[t]me sensitive [air] freight” to “[a]ir dependent time sensitive foods” and then went on a rant.

                 My question was a logical extension of your rant.

                 Capisce?
       • Stuart Munro 1.1.1.3

         26 May 2021 at 1:53 pm

         Yeah I'm with you on this – the Busan Shimonoseki ferries leave flying for dead in price and comfort – a trans-Tasman run would be a good first step to the post mass air travel future.

         Don't expect much support however – official policy is that NZ should be the last dinosaur hunters, not the first adopters of any rational change. It's expensive and stupid, but that reflects the quality of our political decision making.
       • Ad 1.1.1.4

         26 May 2021 at 4:26 pm

         Passenger traffic fell by two thirds in 2020, and full recovery isn't expected before 2023.

         For air travel as for many parts of society, Covid19 is the structural adjustment for climate effects that public policy settings were too afraid to do.

         What is noteworthy is the residual customer demand: unlike the airline collapses after 9/11, there are very few 2020/21 bankruptcies because airlines know the latent demand remains.

         But your projections about the inevitable decline of aircraft flights are not and will never be in the interests of New Zealand.
         • Stuart Munro 1.1.1.4.1

           26 May 2021 at 9:17 pm

           But your projections about the inevitable decline of aircraft flights are not and will never be in the interests of New Zealand.

           Only two things need to happen to allow the end of flights to benefit NZ.

           1. Better preservation systems for currently perishable items. We have some history pioneering frozen meat. Better live shipping modules would allow live seafreight to most of Asia – a technology that, when developed, will access the vast demand for fresh mussels instead of the horrid flavourless cooked and frozen halfshell that satisfies the substantially non-seafood eating US. Mind, with NZ people eating commercially caught fish once per month or less, as compared to Japan's 3-5 times a week, the local market could absorb most of our production if it got the chance.
           2. A move away from tourism as a major sector of the economy. This has become obligate during Covid to some degree in any case, but tourism is a stop gap for developing economies, not a long term industry that will provide a good standard of living. Government should be developing the industries that will.

           The interests of NZ rarely influence policy making – or neoliberalism, asset thefts, the QMS, mass low-wage immigration, and the housing crisis would never have been allowed to develop. You need a better rational for subsidizing contemporary aviation than that.
   • Bearded Git 1.2

     26 May 2021 at 9:58 am

     I think to stop flying entirely would be impractical and extreme.

     To cut flights by 50% and force the use of low carbon generating planes would be an aim that might be achievable (probably by heavily taxing aviation fuel and airports) if governments across the world could be brought on side, which will be a Herculean task.

     Measures such as these would greatly increase the price of flights. But people love those Easyjet stag weekends in Prague.
     • Jenny How to get there 1.2.1

       28 May 2021 at 1:32 pm

       Bearded Git

       26 May 2021 at 9:58 am

       …..To cut flights by 50% and force the use of low carbon generating planes would be an aim that might be achievable (probably by heavily taxing aviation fuel and airports)…

       I agree.

       If airlines were taxed at the rate of climate damage they cause, they would be forced to use low carbon generating planes. That is if they wanted to stay in business.

       Alternatively surface travel would become competitive again….

       P.S. We could probably achieve much the same effect by withdrawing government support every time the airline industry gets in to trouble and has to be bailed out by the taxpayer. This is not the first time.

       From Wikipedia:

       ……in 2001 the New Zealand Government took up 80% ownership in return for injecting $885 million after the airline ran into financial difficulty….

       In early 2002 Ralph Norris, formerly head of ASB Bank, one of New Zealand's main banks, was announced as the new CEO of Air New Zealand, and commenced the difficult task of pulling the airline back from near-death…..

       History of Air New Zealand – Wikipedia

       Without tax payer subsidies Air NZ would collapse quicker than a house of cards, a carbon tax on aviation fuel would put Air NZ out of business even quicker. The same probably goes for most airlines, one of the reasons that around the globe, Air lines are spared carbon charges.
       • Bearded Git 1.2.1.1

         1 June 2021 at 10:22 am

         
   • ghostwhowalksnz 1.3

     26 May 2021 at 10:07 am

     You arent going to get to net zero if you concentrate on the sector that contributes 5% of emissions.
     • weka 1.3.1

       26 May 2021 at 11:35 am

       GHGs associated with flying are way more than what happens on the flight.
       • Jenny how to get there 1.3.1.1

         26 May 2021 at 1:46 pm

         Carbon emissions commerical airline industry may be 5% now, but they are increasing rapidly, and this increase is making no sign of slowing down. (especially with all the tax-payers subsidies being thrown at it.)

         Airlines' CO2 emissions rising up to 70% faster than predicted

         Carbon dioxide emitted by commercial flights rose by 32% from 2013 to 2018, study shows

         ….The total increase over the past five years was equivalent to building about 50 coal-fired power plants, the ICCT calculated.

         https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/sep/19/airlines-co2-emissions-rising-up-to-70-faster-than-predicted

         Carbon dioxide emissions from air travel are not the full story.

         What's an 'aviation multiplier'?

         The impact of planes on the climate is complicated and not perfectly understood. The CO2 emissions are straightforward enough, but plane engines also generate a host of other "outputs", including nitrous oxide, water vapour and soot……

         …….Today, most experts favour an aviation "multiplier" of around two. In other words, they believe that the total impact of a plane is approximately twice as high as its CO2 emissions. The exact multiplier, however, will always depend on the individual plane, the local climate and the time of day.

         https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/apr/06/aviation-q-and-a

         Add the above two things together and you can begin to see the threat that the commercial airline industry poses to the climate, and especially any chance of reaching net zero by 2050.
         • Sacha 1.3.1.1.1

           26 May 2021 at 5:35 pm

           With half our emissions from farming, let's focus efforts there rather than getting distracted by fights with the richest most influential NZers. If you are serious about climate action..
   • Peter chch 1.4

     26 May 2021 at 10:32 am

     Jenny, Internet use (much of it on frivolous blogs and social media) tributes almost as much to global warming as all air travel combined (around 4% compared to 5% for air travel).

     https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200305-why-your-internet-habits-are-not-as-clean-as-you-think

     Be far more effective to have crypto currency banned. Bitcoin related emissions alone contribute more emissions annually than all of NZ emissions.
     https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2021/03/09/business/dealbook/bitcoin-climate-change.amp.html%3f0p19G=0232

     Or more fast rail (France has banned internal air travel on flights where a train could make the same journey in sub 2.5 hours) (sadly not an option here).

     Or maybe China should actually become a member of the global community and take action. Almost all of the coal from NZ and Australia goes to China, who once again are trying to get a free ride by claiming they are still a developing economy and deserve special exemptions.
     • Brigid 1.4.1

       26 May 2021 at 2:13 pm

       According to this rather interesting and well referenced article your criticism of China is unjustified.

       "In December 2016, the Center for American Progress brought a group of energy experts to China to find out what is really happening. We visited multiple coal facilities—including a coal-to-liquids plant—and went nearly 200 meters down one of China’s largest coal mines to interview engineers, plant managers, and local government officials working at the front lines of coal in China.

       We found that the nation’s coal sector is undergoing a massive transformation that extends from the mines to the power plants, from Ordos to Shanghai. China is indeed going green. The nation is on track to overdeliver on the emissions reduction commitments it put forward under the Paris climate agreement, and making coal cleaner is an integral part of the process."

       The tables in this article on the technical makeup of each nation's (China and US) most efficient plants show that 90% of China's plants are ultra-supercritical while 1% America's is ultra-supercritical.

       Comparing China with US and Europe shows conventional air pollution standards are highest in China. e.g. allowable Nitrogen Oxide emissions for new plants in China is 50mg/cuM while in Europe's it's 150mg/cuM.

       China's top 100 most efficient coal-fired power units have a coal consumption rate (gce/kWh) of between 271.56 and 294.88 while Us's is between 335.10 and 397.13.

       Comparing emissions and efficiency China out performs US.

       https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/reports/2017/05/15/432141/everything-think-know-coal-china-wrong/
     • Jenny how to get there 1.4.2

       26 May 2021 at 2:22 pm

       The French government are passing legislation to restrict air travel.

       The New Zealand government are spending tens of $millions to subsidise air travel.

       https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/france-domestic-flight-ban-emissions-scli-intl/index.htm

       "Or more fast rail (France has banned internal air travel on flights where a train could make the same journey in sub 2.5 hours) (sadly not an option here)."
       Peter chch

       High speed trains are sadly not an option here, for two main reasons.
       1. The huge expense. (The cost of building a high speed rail network is probably only possible for powerful economies like Japan, or France, or England and China).
       2. Our very hilly and torturous terrain.

       As I have written above, mass air travel is only a recent innovation.

       For more than a century of European settlement, to travel along this ribbon like mountainous archipelago seperated into two main islands, the coasts were our highways. And for even longer if you consider Maori transportation.

       At this time in our history, unsustainable, evironmentally destructive, and profligately wasteful, would be my depiction of air travel.
       Sooner or later it will have to be curtailed.

       Better sooner than later.

       What if the $1.5 billion in financial support made available to Air New Zealand to save their polluting industry was instead made available for a Trans-Tasman and coastal passenger ferry service to directly compete with the air lines, to end their monopoly, and to continue the job of grounding the airlines that the pandemic began…..

       …..and climate change will finish:

       https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/feb/19/climate-change-spells-turbulent-times-ahead-for-air-travel
       • Ad 1.4.2.1

         26 May 2021 at 4:29 pm

         There is zero point comparing New Zealand to France.
         • Peter chch 1.4.2.1.1

           26 May 2021 at 5:23 pm

           Ad, I am not intending to. Just illustrating that some creative and bold strategies are needed. And sometimes they are not painful either.
   • Treetop 1.5

     26 May 2021 at 10:36 am

     The aviation industry needs a big rethink when it comes to reducing flights and other means of transportation (train, cruise ships). I would diversify and offer all 3 on the same ticket.

     Spending money and holidaying in ones country is good for the economy. Families may choose to live in the same country. Some creative spark could do low and high end ethnic restaurants and have Las Vegas style shows.

     NZ is a bit bland and boring when it comes to an exciting evening out, dinner and a show package.

     There is nothing on free to air TV to watch any more.
   • Jimmy 1.6

     26 May 2021 at 10:57 am

     You should be pretty happy at the moment then, as Covid has effectively reduced flights considerably. There must be a lot less aviation pollution over the last year.
2. Muttonbird 2

   26 May 2021 at 9:29 am

   Only a matter of time before we get slammed, hard. On my travels I see no-one scanning, no masks, and no distancing. Going into small spaces with lots of public is a minefield.

   I feel like we've got complacent and switched off which is probably a function of doing it right and getting back to normal.

   The right wing has won with the travel bubble but I really am worried we're going to get a breach from Australia this winter and have to enter an extended lockdown.

   New Zealand has “several ingredients” for a similiar large outbreak, University of Otago epidemiologist Amanda Kvalsvig​ said.

   These included a low proportion of the population being vaccinated, extremely transmissible variants circulating, the travel bubble with Australia offering more opportunity for the population mixing, and the looming winter season

   “And we don’t have good ventilation in indoor spaces in New Zealand,” Kvalsvig said.

   https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/125240020/covid19-new-zealand-highly-vulnerable-to-a-large-outbreak–experts

   It would be a shame to have all our good work undone at this stage.
   • Bearded Git 2.1

     26 May 2021 at 10:03 am

     Just headlined on RNZ…paraphrasing…there could be many more cases associated with the cluster in Melbourne of, so far, 9 cases. One infectious person attended an Aussie Rules game where 23,000 were present.

     Watch this space.
     • Muttonbird 2.1.1

       26 May 2021 at 10:11 am

       Yeah, one Covid carrier wipes his nose then touches 12 door handles and 4 taps…carnage.
     • Anne 2.1.2

       26 May 2021 at 10:13 am

       Lordy! Wash your face masks, get your house in order (literally) and stock up on cat food and loo rolls.

       And step up the vaccine rollout!
       • Peter chch 2.1.2.1

         26 May 2021 at 10:35 am

         Yep, we know from 2021 worldwide that toilet paper is the single answer to Covid 🤣
   • swordfish 2.2

     26 May 2021 at 10:30 am

     .

     Yep … and relatively few high-risk over-80s vaccinated … (what’s more, less than 20% of the very highest-risk 90+ with serious medical conditions).

     Should’ve eschewed any notion of an Oz travel bubble until much wider vaccination coverage. Indian variant is a bastard that you don’t toy with.
     • Treetop 2.2.1

       26 May 2021 at 10:55 am

       Our Eds are so stretched with high load and admissions. Covid would be such an unwelcome bastard, it is best to be overly cautious than to be gullible.
     • Jimmy 2.2.2

       26 May 2021 at 11:01 am

       Heard on the news, poor old William Shakespeare died at 81 (unrelated to getting vaccinated).

       https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-coventry-warwickshire-57234741
       • mac1 2.2.2.1

         26 May 2021 at 12:36 pm

         What I like about that story is his strong sense of community connection and social responsibility. A decades long Labour activist, parish councillor, school governor, with a sense of mischief. Good man.
     • alwyn 2.2.3

       26 May 2021 at 2:44 pm

       "Should’ve eschewed any notion of an Oz travel bubble".

       I really don't want to see any bubble until everybody in New Zealand who wants to be vaccinated has the chance to do so. We continue to get talk about Group 3 going ahead from May, but it almost the end of the month and there still doesn't seem to be any plan to get on with it. The waffle from the DHB only talks about doing it over the next few months.

       I tried talking to my DHB yesterday. The best I could get out of them was that they couldn't give any indication of a date as they didn't know when they would get vaccines. I was quite tempted to ask whether it would make any difference if I was Maori or Pasifika. The Medical Centre I go to don't know anything more either.

       Until I have had a least the chance of being vaccinated I don't want to see any people coming in without going through quarantine. Selfish? Perhaps but I don't think I am unusual, or unreasonable.
   • bwaghorn 2.3

     26 May 2021 at 10:33 am

     My attitude is while theres none I'm pretty chilled about scanning etc, as soon as there a case I'm back on it hard, .

     In saying that I would have no problem with every shop having a bluetooth tracker picking up my ph as I go in.
   • gsays 2.4

     26 May 2021 at 10:36 am

     FWIW, I scan in around 80% of the time.

     Unpopular as it us, my reckons have the responsibility fall on business owners to have scanning as a right of entry.
     • alwyn 2.4.1

       26 May 2021 at 2:24 pm

       Would you ban me from entering any shops then? I don't have a smart phone and I really don't see why I should waste a lot of money buying one. Do you suggest these should be supplied free?

       Alternatively why didn't they use a service like the one proposed by Sam Morgan. That would have been a great deal more effective from what I read about it. The user wouldn't have to do anything from what was said.
       • gsays 2.4.1.1

         26 May 2021 at 2:33 pm

         You don't need a cell phone to write down your name, number and address.
         • McFlock 2.4.1.1.1

           26 May 2021 at 2:41 pm

           Yeah, it's interesting how few places have a sign in sheet (or sign about where to find it)
           • alwyn 2.4.1.1.1.1

             26 May 2021 at 2:48 pm

             Yes. Almost everywhere has the Covid 19 QR codes up but anywhere to sign in has become very rare, except in the biggest stores. The handwash bottles are also vanishing from most stores.
   • Treetop 2.5

     26 May 2021 at 10:42 am

     I follow daily mail Australia to get the heads up and the restrictions which Australian states put in place for Australian citizens.

     I would not exclude a case in NZ appearing due to the Melbourne outbreak.
   • weka 2.6

     26 May 2021 at 11:40 am

     I’ll keep saying it: in places where there’s been no community transmission for a long time, it’s not reasonable to expect people to keep up with behaviours that are onerous when perception Bis that risk is very low. We need new strategies.

     Seems like lots of people assume this is going to be over soon. Maybe it will but it might not, so we need long term strategies now
   • McFlock 2.7

     26 May 2021 at 2:28 pm

     what do you mean by "slammed, hard"?

     We might have a bubble case come in. In an infinite time period, that's guaranteed.

     But the vulnerable period isn't infinite. My DHB has announced group three vaccinations starting this week, for example. We have a vulnerability period measured in months.

     So this bubble case comes in, gets detected in a couple of weeks as their NZ family and some hospo staff get sick and diagnosed (assuming the bubble case is a carrier with no strong symptoms of their own). Maybe a couple of dozen cases, maybe a localised lockdown. Everyone shits a brick, masks and scanning spike up again, we quickly know the extent of the community outbreak and it's crunched again.

     Compared with the rest of the world, we still have it light.
     • Treetop 2.7.1

       26 May 2021 at 3:53 pm

       Everyone shits a brick

       Is that why people need to stock up on so much toilet paper?
       • McFlock 2.7.1.1

         26 May 2021 at 4:40 pm

         Either that or because they knew they'd be panic-buying baked beans a day ot two later…
3. AB 3

   26 May 2021 at 10:58 am

   Here's a withering takedown of Boris Johnson by Ash Sarkar. It is alleged that Johnson missed five emergency COBRA meetings at the start of the pandemic in 2020, in order to work on a biography of Shakespeare.

   The link should start at 26:00 mins. Ash's rant from about 27:00 mins notes, among other things, that we don't need another biography of Shakespeare, especially one by a "dilettante posho who knows some florid words, but has no critical thinking skills whatsoever".
4. Drowsy M. Kram 4

   26 May 2021 at 12:00 pm

   New Zealand reclaims the top spot in Bloomberg's Covid-19 resilience ranking.

   https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-resilience-ranking/

   Congrats to NZ's collaborative applied research team that has delivered the COVID-19 genome sequencing programme here. Only possible because of our relatively low number of cases – long may that continue.

   Real-time genomics to track COVID-19 post-elimination border incursions in Aotearoa New Zealand
   There have been thirteen known COVID-19 community outbreaks in Aotearoa New Zealand since the virus was first eliminated in May 2020, two of which led to stay-at-home orders being issued by health officials. These outbreaks originated at the border; via isolating returnees, airline workers, and cargo vessels. With a public health system informed by real-time viral genomic sequencing which typically had complete genomes within 12 hours after a community-based positive COVID-19 test, every outbreak was well-contained with a total of 225 community cases, resulting in three deaths. Real-time genomics were essential for establishing links between cases when epidemiological data could not, and for identifying when concurrent outbreaks had different origins. By reconstructing the viral transmission history from genomic sequences, here we recount all thirteen community outbreaks and demonstrate how genomics played a vital role in containing them.
   • Treetop 4.1

     26 May 2021 at 12:36 pm

     Having a trans Tasman and Cook Island bubble is a different ball game to just managing NZ. Bloomberg did well, in saying this he has uncertainty to contend with due to the Melbourne outbreak which is unpredictable.
     • Treetop 4.1.1

       26 May 2021 at 2:11 pm

       Bloomfield not Bloomberg.
5. RedBaronCV 5

   26 May 2021 at 12:55 pm

   So are we going to get a tourist reset or not?Or are the overseas owned airlines going to set the policy for us?

   https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/125238153/major-airlines-selling-fares-to-nz-shows-growing-confidence-borders-will-open-early-2022-airline-groups-says
   • Graeme 5.1

     26 May 2021 at 1:18 pm

     They might have fares on the market, but are they getting any punters?

     You’d be rather brave handing over cash today to an airline for travel in 8-12 months time. There’s a good chance that airline won’t exist then.

     Most international airlines are surviving on government subsidies to keep airfreight going. Those subsidies will wind down as freight only operators expand. Going to be very interesting times in the airline industry around the end if the year. Also from that point it will get very hard, and expensive to bring airframes out of storage, there’s a lot of A380s and 777s that will never fly again, some with silver ferns on their tails
     • weka 5.1.1

       26 May 2021 at 2:00 pm

       How will that affect airlines doing domestic, Pacific and trans Tasman flights?
       • Graeme 5.1.1.1

         26 May 2021 at 9:36 pm

         Air New Zealand lost $454 million last year, Qantas 2 billion. The Qantas link is very revealing of the scale of the industry's problem. Both airlines had about half of their domestic revenue which just wan't enough to pay the way. The Australian government provided over 1 billion in subsidies for domestic leisure airfares to try and prop up their domestic airlines and tourism industry, people don't really want to fly right now.

         In Australia, they'll probably end up with a much smaller, nationalised Qantas and maybe some regionals, with Virgin going tits up, again.

         Here, I'd say Air New Zealand will be in virtually 100% government ownership and much smaller.

         Having borders opening early next year is predicted on vaccine rollout and covid proceeding to plan and nothing popping out, we'll see. Early next year is also about when the shit will hit the fan in the airlines too, so we might be seeing a bit of wishful thinking with this announcement. Air Canada is also in a bad way, burning CAD$13-15 million / day, and surviving on government subsidies, no way I'd be giving them my cash to maybe fly in a years time.
   • Poission 5.2

     26 May 2021 at 1:22 pm

     The flights are timed to coincide with the tail end of New Zealand’s planned vaccination roll-out and align with Treasury’s assumption of a significant re-opening of the border from January.

     Treasury assumes bau,as a survival strategy following a vaccination plan completion.

     Coronavirus follows the law of chance and success as a survival strategy,Rna evolutionary arms race being the nuclear issue of our time.

     https://twitter.com/GabrielScally/status/1395697659953008643

     or for real world data a decrease in efficacy.

     https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1396438472118849540
6. Treetop 6

   26 May 2021 at 1:44 pm

   Reply to RedBaronCV @5

   Can the government afford another level 4 lockdown or will they throw the towel in?

   The workers insurance for loss of job due to Covid would be useless.

   See Collins thinks cancer patients from the Waikato could go to Australia for treatment, on RNZ news.

   Non isolated tourists increase the risk of an outbreak. Covid mutations are getting meaner and vaccinations would need to be effective.

   Answer to your questions is only if the government throws the towel in.

   Why would tourists want to come to a NZ with Covid?

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