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Open mike 26/10/2010

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, October 26th, 2010 - 55 comments
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Comment on whatever takes your fancy.

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55 comments on “Open mike 26/10/2010 ”

  1. The Voice of Reason 1

    Latest Roy Morgan poll for the period 4-17 October. Not so good for Labour (but it was prior to the LP conference) but, on the up side, the end of ACT seems confirmed.

    http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2010/4590/

    • Marty G 1.1

      the trend lines are still OK. The numbers will bump around from week to week but the trend is for LG to match NACT by early to mid next year.

      • gingercrush 1.1.1

        No it isn’t. If you really think that you’re fucking stupid. The poll is now back to what it was months ago. The only interesting thing is the next time the poll fluctuates and if Labour can once again break from the 34%.

      • Bob Stanforth 1.1.2

        “the trend lines are still OK. The numbers will bump around from week to week but the trend is for LG to match NACT by early to mid next year.”

        Thank you for that, thats the best laugh Ive had in weeks. 🙂 Im guessing you didnt do stats at Uni?

        • Bored 1.1.2.1

          I’m with you and Ging here Bob. The trend from a left view is a total nightmare. We may differ on the details but the trend is clear, the Nats are streets ahead. For labour reducing the gap is a big ask especially given that they are run by the man with a total charisma bypass.

          • Blighty 1.1.2.1.1

            look at the trend old boy. draw a line for the right and left’s numbers from when the right reached it peak last year, and project forwards.

            last year, the left was polling mid 30s. This latest poll has them at 41.5%. The right was near 60%, now they’re just over 50%.

            Numbers move poll to poll, watch the trend.

            • gingercrush 1.1.2.1.1.1

              But that isn’t really a trend since most times when a new government is formed they enjoy an unrealistic amount of support while the party that was formerly in government tends to have much lower support. As such you can’t play trends when for months the poll results were entirely unrealistic.

              One can talk about trends when the poll results move from where they were previously unrealistic to be more realistic. That has happened for months now and outside last month where Labour was higher than the 34% or less the trend has remained rather static.

        • Joe Bloggs 1.1.2.2

          hilarious isn’t he? I laughed and laughed and laughed. Anyone remember Lynn P saying:

          most of the polls from different polling companies have strong differences due to differences in polling techniques, which is why we tend to only put up Morgan polls because they are believed by the authors here to be closest to reality

          Latest Roy Morgan poll

          Welcome to reality Lynn!

          • gobsmacked 1.1.2.2.1

            The reality is the same as it’s always been. National’s options are (a) govern alone, or (b) govern with partner(s). Though I prefer option (c) – not governing at all.

            If their supporters want to bet that Option (a) will succeed, I’ll happily take your money.

            But everyone knows it’s got to be Option (b).

            So, question for the Right – which partners are you counting on?

            Hone, Rodney or Winston?

            • Carol 1.1.2.2.1.1

              Most likely to be Winston, possibly with some MP support. But how would that impact on the Nat aim to ram through more neoliberal policies?

            • gingercrush 1.1.2.2.1.2

              Winston won’t make it. Rodney surely has to be gone and Hone will play subservient to the other Maori Party members. I will go with (b) but with Dunne as support partner. National will have to say to its National supporters in Ohariu to tick Dunne. If they don’t the seat will go to Chauvel even though its a National seat. The Maori Party will sign on but with a memorandum of understanding where they get a few gains but don’t join cabinet and abstain on confidence & supply.

          • lprent 1.1.2.2.2

            I also said…

            Obsessive poll watching is a bit of a pointless activity. Looking at medium term trends in them is interesting

            Any one poll can vary by about 2-3% on various party results. So you have to look over a three or four of the same poll to see if there is a trend. From memory this will mean that there have been about 3 successive rises in labours results and one slump. National has had a slight downward trend overall, Labour has a gradual rise.

            So Joe B – exactly how obsessional are you? You’re reading meaning into a single poll. Do you like reading chicken entrails as well? You do seem to be the credulous type who’d buy the Brooklyn bridge ..

            • Joe Bloggs 1.1.2.2.2.1

              actually Lynn in case you missed it all the polls over the last couple of years (even Roy Morgan) have had National miles ahead of Labour … that’s one helluva trend, big guy…

              … so not much obsessing needed really. Haven’t needed to slaughter as much as a single broiler this year… ‘sides which haruspicy is a dying art, I much prefer gyromancy and get plenty of opportunity to practice it at this site

              • lprent

                You’re getting to be as farcical about selective picking of periods as that other great bullshit artist – Bill English.

                The trend this year has been up for Labour and down for National.

                • Colonial Viper

                  You mean…its not a sign of economic recovery that people are paying off debt instead of spending in local stores and businesses?

                  Well I never!

        • Colonial Viper 1.1.2.3

          Fight fight fight!

    • Draco T Bastard 1.2

      It’s one of the spikes that they get from not questioning enough people. Basically, their “random” selection process randomly selected NACT supporters rather than a representative cross section.

      • Bob Stanforth 1.2.1

        So, dont like the outcome, therefore question and deflate the outcome. Yeah, good fact based approach, I like that.

        Head, meet sand…

        • gobsmacked 1.2.1.1

          So, head out of sand, Bob.

          Could you answer my question above? Who will support National on confidence and supply? And at what price?

          Hone, Rodney or Winston?

          • Bob Stanforth 1.2.1.1.1

            OK, I’ll play 🙂

            Rodney, probably gone, replaced by a strong National candidate, but if he stays, status quo

            MP, still inside the tent, and making real and lasting change, as they are now – expect an announcement prior to the election to confirm that

            Winston – you’re kidding, right? He isnt even Yesterdays Man – he would be working hard to make that tag stick.

            But yeah, the trend, its still um…

            Oh yeah, bugger 🙁

            LMAO

            • gobsmacked 1.2.1.1.1.1

              So to sum up, Bob, you’re saying Key needs the Maori Party. You’ve deleted the other two (and I agree on both counts).

              So, according to your own argument, if the Maori Party go with Labour, then National lose.

              So there’s everything to play for, then. I think you’re right.

              • Bob Stanforth

                Nice assumption, but no cigar. Labour, and Trevor in particular, are doing everything they can to alienate the MP. God knows why, but there you go. And the MP are more than happy inside the tent, and Hone is quite happy being a radical for that part of the vote that is happy for him to be that, and TT is happy for him to do it as well.

                And polling at 52.5%, when they won an election at 44.9%, thats quite a difference.

                Correct me if Im wrong, but election held today on those numbers means National governs alone.

                But of course, you knew that 😉

                And of course, the only poll that matters is the big one – and both main parties will get closer over time as we head for that. They always do. But thats a whole lotta gap to close…

                • Joe Bloggs

                  Labour, and Trevor in particular, are doing everything they can to alienate the MP

                  Not forgetting Shane Jones’s lunge at Pita Sharples’ seat at the next erection.

                  That’ll go down like a cup of cold mimi at the next korero…

                  • Colonial Viper

                    Not forgetting Shane Jones’s lunge at Pita Sharples’ seat at the next erection.

                    By the way, do you type with both hands on the keyboard? Are you sure?

        • Draco T Bastard 1.2.1.2

          Just a healthy scepticism of sudden spikes in polling. Have a look at the graph as there’s a few of them in there and they all do a sudden reverse the next month. I’m expecting the same from this one.

          • Bob Stanforth 1.2.1.2.1

            Yes, but your initial statement sought to ‘explain it all away’ with a fact free comment. Im sure the RM poll people would be a tad disheartened to hear that you think their polling techniques are as random as you make out.

            Oh, and for the record, they aren’t 🙂

            Secondly, yes, there are and always will be ups and downs. But the only trend at the moment is relatively static for both main parties – there is no trend (which in and of itself means ‘over time’) for either party. And at the end of any particular day you care to name, there is one poll that counts, and it isnt this one 🙂

            • Draco T Bastard 1.2.1.2.1.1

              An hypothesis. Could probably have been stated better but it does seem to be the only one that fits.

              … their polling techniques are as random as you make out.

              They’re supposed to be random and through that get an accurate representation of the population. It has a few downsides and one of them is that they can end up with an unrepresentative grouping which is what the spikes in the graph look like.

              • Bob Stanforth

                My apologies, that was a poor choice of words, my bad 🙂

                Roy Morgan use the very best selection criteria, as any student who knows this stuff will tell you – and the margin of error is your best friend.

                But then, as Msr iPrent has noted, I should not expect anything other than steady as she goes, no major rave, criticism of poor whatever (when will I see that bit?) from here.

                The poll was however prior to the Lab Conf, Im sure you will bounce up a point or two, especially after PG came out so strongly in the Hobbit debacle.

                Oh…

                Maybe he was shutting up so the union could take over 😉

      • gingercrush 1.2.2

        That is such a stupid response. The same could equally be said in any poll. Such as a few months where NZ First was on 4.5% support. Clearly, too many NZ First voters responded. Or anytime National is down you could say too many LAB & Green supporters responded.

        • Colonial Viper 1.2.2.1

          Yeah, poll mania is bad. We all know there is only one poll which matters and that is rolling around mid 2011.

  2. Glorious Prime Minister of New Zealand again declined to be interviewed on Morning Report.

    Is anyone keeping count?

  3. KJT 3

    Just went slumming at KiwiBlog to have a look at how the other half thinks. They don’t.

    • Colonial Viper 3.1

      Yeah did a bit of that over the weekend. Can’t say I recommend it as a holiday away.

  4. MikeG 4

    Does Steven Joyce understand economics? – I don’t think so – “When announcing the funding relocation, Tertiary Education Minister Steven Joyce said there was less demand for industry-based training as New Zealand recovered from the recession.”

    Let’s see – when recovering from a recession the job market will start to pick up (eventually), therefore skilled workers will be required, therefore we need to train those workers. Doesn’t quite match with Joyce’s view of the world.

    • Bored 4.1

      Mike, the real problem is that the average lower paid cretin who voted Nact last time round quite obviously cant do maths. This is evidenced by their complete refusal to react to the mathematical rort that was the tax cut accompanied by the GST rise.

      Consequently to expect the same cretins to pick up on Joyces mathematical accuracy, or that of the rest of the Nact Pack is asking a little much.

    • Draco T Bastard 4.2

      NACT don’t understand the economy. That’s why they keep giving themselves and their rich mates tax cuts while cutting essential services such as education.

  5. john 5

    More news from the US NeoLiberal Disaster zone also known as Privatized Paradise and the Billionaire’s Playground. Wonder what Oprah will make of this report?
    Back in the good ol’ days of the 70s. (Showing my age here!) California was the showplace of the American Dream.(Even HillBillies had made it into Beverly !)It was socially very tolerant,maybe due to the big gay population in San Francisco(The greening of America and the age of the Hippies). We listened to the music of the Beach Boys,Crosby and Nash, Jefferson Airplane,Boz Scaggs’ “Sail On”, and The Mamas and the Papas who sung “California Dreamin'”. It was San Francisco Sound and West Coast Rock.
    And those hot temps down south, the easy cheap motoring and surfing.
    All changed, changed utterly! California is going down with disastrous social stats.Our righters look up to the US as an anti-welfare society,but how does that accord with 44,000,000 on food stamps? If you take their welfare away there’ll be famine! They can’t pay their police or teachers. Yet the rich in the US have never had it better due to insane tax laws rewarding them with more and more unearned wealth.Again, Oprah is billionaire twice over for just sitting on her butt and pontificating the “all is well!” “all is well” “don’t think” “don’t think” social control pap she does so well!Connection between social control function,very useful to the powerbrokers,and remuneration? Refer link:

    http://www.businessinsider.com/reasons-to-leave-california-2010-10

    • john 5.1

      “The fact that you think “10.55% bracket at $1,000,000″ is a high tax rate says it all.”
      “30 years ago, anything was possible in CA:”
      “It seems to me that CEOs who moved jobs overseas, and the banksters that securitized and sold subprime mortgages should be dealt with”
      “Reps will bail out Cali just like the Dems will/would. Politicians talk a good game but in the end they can’t take the risk of societal collapse. Cali is still the 8th largest economy in the world. Sadly neither party has the cojones to force change on the state.”

      “this idea that everyone in California is going to pack up and head to Nevada was already tested and failed, surprise surprise, 0% income tax doesn’t matter much when you don’t have a job anyway, which seems to be a bigger problem in Nevada than California
      this is why places like Reno have become real-estate dead-zones, even though they are only miles from the California border, and if the economic arguments trumped everything else, would have already siphoned off the bay area population”

      “The truth is that it is easy to understand why there are now more Americans moving out of California each year than there are Americans moving into the state. California has become a complete and total disaster zone in more ways than one, and an increasing number of Californians are deciding that enough is enough and they are getting out for good.
      Sadly, the state of California is facing such a wide array of social, economic, and political problems that it is hard to even document them all. It is really one huge gigantic mess at this point.”

      The US is an everyone for himself sod the tax society look where it’s got them!

      • Vicky32 5.1.1

        No wonder the USA is a culture of fear and violence… (Even the hugely sentimental Ghost Whisperer, one of the few US programmes I watch, gave in to the violence, last night.)
        Deb

        • RedLogix 5.1.1.1

          Interesting comment Deb…my partner had exactly the same reaction to Ghost Whisperer last night herself.

          • Vicky32 5.1.1.1.1

            I am glad someone else watches it! (I always feel ashamed, as if I was caught reading a romance novel, eeuuwww!) I was seriously freaked out by the testerical cop waving his gun at the family…
            Deb

    • john 5.2

      “These are extremely troubling facts for anyone concerned about economic fairness, equality of opportunity, and justice.

      Thomas Jefferson once observed that the systematic restructuring of society to benefit the rich over the poor and middle class is a natural appetite of the rich. “Experience declares that man is the only animal which devours his own kind, for I can apply no milder term to…the general prey of the rich on the poor.” But Jefferson also knew that justice can only be delayed so long when he said, “I tremble for my country when I reflect that God is just, that his justice cannot sleep forever.”

      The rich talk about the rise of socialism to divert attention from the fact that they are devouring the basics of the poor and everyone else. Many of those crying socialism the loudest are doing it to enrich or empower themselves. They are right about one thing – there is a class war going on in the US. The rich are winning their class war, and it is time for everyone else to fight back for economic justice.

      • M 5.2.1

        john

        Check this out from Paul Craig Roberts – he rightly calls out economists as pimps.

        If Joe Six Pack cannot understand this video then I fear the US is finished

  6. Colonial Viper 7

    In the Granny Herald: another one turns –

    “Peter Lyons: Mantra of free market ideology wearing thin

    People need to take back control of shaping their society from the capitalists and the Middle Earth living robber barons.

    It happens in 2011.

    • Hi CV

      I think you might have one too many apostrophies or something. Link is at http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10682955

      Interesting article. I never thought that I would see the day where the Herald advocated for the total reform of the capitalist system.

      As Dylan sang

      “And the times they are a changing”

    • Lazy Susan 7.2

      It’s only taken 25 years to debunk the idea of market theory and perfect pricing. Economists are finally start to admit that the price of an asset may be distorted by possible speculative gains and not always be perfectly priced. Shit, have they not stood around the barbie during the last 25 years listening to some half-wit warble on about the killing they made on their “investment property”.

  7. M

    I dont think the US is finish somehow.

    Yeppers, you guys are our version of the teabaggers.

  8. Vicky32 9

    This probably should be on OM for the 27th, but I can’t find it quickly enough (dial up). Can it be TV3 support the death penalty? Yes, it can, their management are all Americans.
    Just heard an item about the latest sentencing to death of one of Saddam Hussein’s minion, the item done by an idiot from ITV. (TV3 don’t have a contract with the BBC). This Bill Nealy person is a rather right wing guy to judge from this and other items he’s done.
    Naturally, he takes and reports it all at face value, whereas in reality, the Iraqi “government” is still an American puppet. Who remembers that Iraq, which had abolished the death penalty under Saddam Hussein reinstituted it while under open American rule, so that SH could be executed?
    Ali is being hanged for being one of SH’s minions, and nothing else. Shame! Shame on those who don’t see through this, shame on the Iraqi puppets but most of all shame on the USA for spreading their bizarre laws to more civilised places (As Iraq was under SH, before the American invasion for oil.)
    Deb

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