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Open mike 27/06/2025

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, June 27th, 2025 - 53 comments
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53 comments on “Open mike 27/06/2025 ”

  1. Todays Posts 1
    27 June 2025 at 6:00 am

    Today's Posts (updated through the day):

    Oceania: Journey to the Center and other Auckland events

    Reply
    • lprent 2.1
      27 June 2025 at 7:23 am

      There have been a lot of stories about piddle packs, naps, and long flights. I’ve seen them on CNN, BBC, NYT, WP.. I don’t tend to read MSNBC becasue they don’t write stories, they usually present them on video – which has a low bandwidth for a fast reader.

      I was more interested in the decoy B2 that is currently stranded on Honolulu because it has a engine issue and had to divert there. They aren’t sure when the B2 is likely to be fixed because it is a long way from its maintenance. Apart from anything else, they must be running out of stored parts.

      You get the impression the numpty Secretary of Defense made a PR based campaign for how it looked without thinking about the important things like lifetime longevity of a limited resource. He added a lot of extra flight hours on the B2 fleet. Military runs on logistics and maintenance. It feels like someone has very limited experience in that field. The B21 raiders aren’t rolling of the production line fro a few years yet, and there are only 17 remaining B2s with no production line and limited spare parts.

      But all of that isn’t as interesting as if all of the extra wear time on the 20+ year old bombers with unique capabilities was actually worth it in terms of achieving objectives. So far it doesn’t sound like it was. So you get diversion idiocies like that social media

      Reply
      • Sanctuary 2.1.1
        27 June 2025 at 8:21 am

        The war between Israel and Iran caused considerable angst amongst the Russian mil-bloggers, who asked why Russia couldn't do to Ukraine what Israel did to Iran (spoiler alert – it is because Russian kit is basically shit).

        All in all, the military lesson of the Israel – Iran conflict is that stealth works and the F-35 is a bit of a super weapon at the moment and the impact of drones and SRBMs are piddling compared to an airforce with air supremacy. After all, if an F-35 can deliver 2.5 tonnes of bombs with deadly accuracy five times a day indefinitely, that is the equivalant of a dozen SRBMs a day – and SRBMs are one shot wonders, while it has been quite staggering watching what just a decade or two ago was complete science fiction – the interception of ballistic missiles in outer space – become completely routine to the point peoplecomplain when the odd missile gets through.

        Reply
        • Dennis Frank 2.1.1.1
          27 June 2025 at 8:42 am

          The random crap-shoot theory of warfare could be in the ascendant, huh? How much do gung-ho dudes really want to suffer via system failure?

          If the ones that get thro the defence screen hit civilians, tough guys say tough luck. The oldie from circa 1930 comes to mind. Son in college wires father: “No mon no fun your son.” Father responds: “Too bad so sad your Dad.”

          Did you like the head of the EU calling Trump "Daddy"? I briefly wondered if he was doing postmodernism…

          Reply
        • lprent 2.1.1.2
          27 June 2025 at 9:18 am

          I agree with most of that apart from one thing.

          The interceptors are frigging expensive. Let me see if I can find the links about the SM-3s I read yesterday… The links names make it obvious what they're writing about.

          https://maritime-executive.com/article/u-s-navy-used-up-missiles-at-alarming-rate-to-defeat-iranian-strikes

          https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/-israel–risks-running-out-of-arrow-3-interceptors-within-we

          And the price is really high and the build numbers very low. Try doing some division on $/number..

          https://defensearchives.com/news/raytheon-awarded-1-billion-contract-to-continue-sm-3-ib-production-for-additional-year/

          That level of targeting, doing a kinetic hit at high velocity, where the missiles they are targeting take counter measures takes a hell of a lot of expensive code and sensor QA. It'd be cheaper but less effective to just throw away the equivalent weight in gold or platinum away.

          It 'd probably be cheaper to just let the missile fall without trying to intercept them if you got civilians to shelters first.

          With the F-35s, there seems to be some discussion about unverifiable losses. Hard to see through the fog of claims. Obviously Iran will over claims, but the Israelis (and US) have form about not being transparent about losses.

          The modded F-35 that the Israelis brought with the long-range carrying capability seemed useful. That was what gave them the hit to do the initial air defence. I suspect that a lot of F-35 orders will like to get that range enhancement.

          Reply
          • Sanctuary 2.1.1.2.1
            27 June 2025 at 9:58 am

            It a full scale war, I agree it would make military sense to save your interceptor missiles to protect high value targets. However, mass survey reports in the UK in WW2 found that while cruise mssiles (V1) and aircraft attack hardened civilian morale, ballistic missile attack – arriving with little or no warning and sporting huge warheads – did affect civilian morale, so you'd have to be careful.

            If any F-35s had been lost we'd know all about it, shooting one down would be a glittering propaganda coup for Iran. The F-35 is a technological marvel, it can update it's threat and mission files in real time and the aircraft integrates with satellites, AEW and drones like a simulation. Even more than stealth its EW suite is amazing and the aircraft seems a huge force multiplier.

            Reply
        • Bearded Git 2.1.1.3
          27 June 2025 at 9:58 am

          Iranian missiles, apart from many injuries and some deaths, caused US$3 billion worth of damage to Israel in 12 days. At least 50 missiles got through the Iron Dome (Israel censures reporting of missile strikes).

          Add to this the significant cost of the Iron Dome defence system, and the considerable cost to the economy of sending hundreds of thousands of people into air raid bunkers on numerous occasions and it simply wasn't viable for Israel to continue the war with Iran. It bit off more than it could chew.

          https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-26/iran-caused-3-billion-of-damage-with-missile-strikes-on-israel?embedded-checkout=true

          https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/at-least-50-iranian-missiles-hit-israel-during-12-day-conflict/3613692

          Reply
        • Res Publica 2.1.1.4
          27 June 2025 at 1:41 pm

          That’s fair, but I’d be cautious about extrapolating too much from the Israel–Iran exchange.

          Yes, the F-35 proved highly effective: but it did so in a controlled environment: permissive airspace, short strike distances, layered ISR, and secure logistics. That’s not representative of what we’d see in a high-end conflict against a peer adversary.

          The F-35 isn’t just a fighter jet. It’s essentially a flying data node designed to amplify the effectiveness of every other platform around it.

          But that power comes with a price: extreme complexity, long logistics tails, and total dependence on unbroken digital and physical infrastructure. It’s a system built to dominate but only when the scaffolding holds.

          And we haven’t yet seen what happens when it doesn’t. A coordinated Chinese strike package—whether from land-based missile forces or carrier aviation—could generate salvo densities orders of magnitude greater than anything Russia has fielded.

          We’re talking full-spectrum saturation: ballistic and cruise missiles, drones, decoys, and electronic attack all layered together. Not to shoot down a jet. But to crush the system that enables it.

          Because once your hardened airbases are on fire, your logistics routes are interdicted, and your datalink ecosystem is degraded, even the most advanced fighter becomes just a very expensive decoy.

          That’s the real lesson here: drones and SRBMs may look “piddling” next to fifth-gen jets, but they attack asymmetrically by exhausting defenses, degrading readiness, and making sustained high-end ops unsustainable.

          For example,we still don’t know how close Israel came to burning through its interceptor inventory during this round of strikes.

          Or to put it more bluntly: your $100 million stealth fighter doesn’t matter much if your $10 billion carrier is busy being turned into an artificial reef. All it takes is one or two more drones or missiles than the other guy has countermeasures. That’s salvo economics.

          Reply
        • joe90 2.1.1.5
          27 June 2025 at 5:37 pm

          Russian kit is basically shit

          but good looking shit

          https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tupolev_PAK_DA

          Reply
      • Res Publica 2.1.2
        27 June 2025 at 1:58 pm

        Every military fights two enemies: the opposing force, and its own supply chain.

        Reply
  3. Sanctuary 3
    27 June 2025 at 8:12 am

    The high price of cake is actually good for France and good for all the san-culottes, says Versailles based regime apologist.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/dairy-exports-vital-for-nz-economy-despite-butter-price-concerns-dr-jacqueline-rowarth/RDRALSWUINBTNJFDVR4T674SUY/

    Reply
    • Bearded Git 3.1
      27 June 2025 at 9:28 am

      Haha excellent Sanc.

      Rowarth has long been an apologist for for the Marie Antoinette regime of course.

      "The Government’s concept of doubling the value of exports underpins its desire (and New Zealand’s need) for improved health, education and infrastructure, as well as police, environment, and every other group important to New Zealand’s functioning as a developed nation."

      That would be well and good if this government was really trying to find ways to spread the export generated cream in a manner that served the masses as she claims. But instead the Luxon XVI regime is finding many devious ways to send yet more croissants and mille-feuille to the aristocrats.

      Reply
    • Ad 3.2
      27 June 2025 at 1:08 pm

      That is one gobsmacking piece of consumer Fuck You from Dr Rowarth.

      A wonderful evasion of the scale of our power concentration in both dairy and in supermarkets that enables unchecked dairy price rises, which just screws us all.

      Lewis Road silver-packed 200g if you can afford it is the bizzo.

      Reply
  4. Bearded Git 4
    27 June 2025 at 9:37 am

    All power to Pedro Sanchez for refusing to kow tow to the bully.

    https://www.facebook.com/watch?v=2085599521927139

    Reply
  5. Stephen D 5
    27 June 2025 at 10:06 am

    Intersesting reading about the strenghths of Zohran Mamdani's campaign for the New York mayoralty.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jun/26/zohran-mamdani-interview-leftwing-politics-us-elections

    There were two takeaways that interesrted me, that could apply to the Labour Party here. His is unavowdley socialist polices, and the style of his campaign.

    "“I think ultimately this is a campaign about inequality, and you don’t have to live in the most expensive city in the country to have experienced that inequality, because it’s a national issue. And what Americans coast to coast are looking for are people who will fight for them, not just believe in the things that resonate with their lives, but actually fight and deliver on those very things,” he said."

    The other strength was in the style of campaigning. Lots of door knocking and talking to voters face to face. Backed by a strong targetted social media presence.

    Labour can ceratinly get the door knocking face to face stuf done. Not sure if their social media gurus are cutting it right now.

    Reply
  6. tsmithfield 6
    27 June 2025 at 10:35 am

    A very interesting video for those interested in hydrogen as a green energy source..

    The biggest problem is how to extract hydrogen without creating large amounts of greenhouse gasses to do so. And, green sources to do that such as solar etc simply don't provide enough energy to make it viable.

    However, it looks like there could be huge amounts of natural hydrogen stored in the earth crust that could be extracted.

    If it is viable to extract this hydrogen without creating too much in green house gasses in the process, then this could be an exciting possibility.

    Reply
    • Bearded Git 6.1
      27 June 2025 at 10:56 am

      The hydrogen ship has sailed, except perhaps for mass transit.

      Massive decreases in the costs of producing solar power and associated batteries has left hydrogen far behind.

      Reply
    • lprent 6.2
      27 June 2025 at 2:52 pm

      side-issue: with green grey etc hydrogen. That to me is the secondary problem. You can get green hydrogen by just cracking water if you have enough really cheap electricity. Then you run into the real problem

      The problem with hydrogen mostly hasn't been about extracting it. As you say that has problems. But even if you got the cleanest hydrogen from a natural source, the real issue you have is how to store and transport it.

      Hydrogen in a gaseous state will leak relatively quickly through the structural matrix metal or plastic pipe walls. Weeks if it is hot. Not to mention virtually all known gasket types. https://www.journalijdr.com/sites/default/files/issue-pdf/25006.pdf

      So typically it is liquefied. That requires power because it liquefies at -253C. That leaves a nasty expansion problem if it warms up.

      You can transport it as a hydride or hydroxide reasonably safely if nothing goes wrong – usually with something like Magnesium or Magnesium Nickel. These kinds of compounds are hard to bind, but also hard to release. But when it releases it – a lot of the stable compounds releasing hydrogen tend give you a low grade exothermic reaction, that is worst when doing large quantities.

      But the way to release the hydrogen as a hydride or hydroxide is usually to initiate it with heat or chemically release it with a acid. Please warn me if you are ever doing this around me, because I want to move well out of the flare range. A few hundred meters from a tanker load sounds about right.

      Anyway, how to move hydrogen around is a problem that doesn't have a good solution for a fuel distribution system. They currently move it in cryogenic tankers. Or as compounds that the heated at the target site (like a fuel cell) to release it.

      Reply
      • tsmithfield 6.2.1
        27 June 2025 at 6:36 pm

        Interesting thoughts.

        In the video they show a map that shows the presumed distribution around the world. On that map it shows we have some good sources in NZ.

        So an answer to the transport problem could be to build power stations right above the sources and just use it as another form of green power generation.

        Reply
        • lprent 6.2.1.1
          30 June 2025 at 2:25 pm

          So an answer to the transport problem could be to build power stations right above the sources and just use it as another form of green power generation.

          That would be my engineering response.

          Probably have a plume of water vapour downwind if they don't collect and condense it. Possibly with contaminants it is isn't separated cleaning with whatever the hydrogen has bonded with (like hydrogen sulphides in particular or hydrogen carbonates).

          I wouldn't be too confident about how much freeish hydrogen there is confined in inside rock formations either. NZ is geologically fractured like crazy which is why our natural gas and oil deposits are relatively tiny.

          Unlike gas or oil with their hydrogen carbonate bonds, the molecular mass of straight hydrogen in all three natural forms tend to be almost as slippery as a the noble helium that derives from the same source. Its propensity to escape is many time of the heavier hydrocarbonates

          They have been mining natural helium for a long time. It collects in the same way – mixed.

          Reply
    • gsays 6.3
      28 June 2025 at 7:31 am

      The whole hydrogen thing seems to be more about how an industry, an economy can be developed.

      20 years ago I saw utes and quad bikes running around on farms fueled by water. An agee jar of water, 2 stainless steel anodes(?) connected to the vehicle battery and hydrogen being fed into the air intake.

      No storage nor transportation. Clearly this has it's limitations the biggest being making money from it.

      Reply
      • KJT 6.3.1
        28 June 2025 at 4:30 pm

        Good gizmo, but very energy inefficient compared with simply running an electric motor from a battery.

        I suspect the current push for hydrogen is mostly oil and gas producers trying for a use for their soon to be "stranded assets". Just like all the hype about "greener gas"!

        Reply
        • gsays 6.3.1.1
          29 June 2025 at 12:02 pm

          You are correct about both points.

          The motivation by these folk was part independence/resilience, part curiosity and part f#@k the man. Efficiency didn't come into it.

          When I get a bit more time on my hands (roll on retirement) I want to try a gassifier to run a generator/car engine.

          The Biogas digester with scrubbers for natural gas for cooking is also top of the list.

          Yay You Tube.

          Reply
  7. Tony Veitch 7
    27 June 2025 at 11:01 am

    Oh look, an opportunity for Winston to recruit another conspiracy nutter in her place!

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/565294/nz-first-mp-tanya-unkovich-quits-parliament

    Reply
  8. Drowsy M. Kram 8
    27 June 2025 at 11:18 am

    Uh oh, what very interesting things could could if could be happening in Aotearoa today.

    Live NZ weather: ‘Tornado’ report in Auckland; state of emergency in flooded south [Stuff, 27 June 2025]

    NZ First MP Tanya Unkovich stands down from politics [Stuff, 27 June 2025]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tanya_Unkovich

    18 months is a long time in New Zealand politics. Who’s next on Winston’s list?

    Reply
    • lprent 8.1
      27 June 2025 at 11:45 am

      Auckland can get some very high winds and vortexes. Back in about 1977 we went up to where my family had a hut on the 88 acre ‘hobby’ farm* in hills above Puhio to find that we’d made the hut a little too draft proof. It’d exploded in a wind storm and was scattered across the pasture.

      A few years later, we’d built a drafty barn in a different pace. Came up one weekend to find that barn had moved about a foot because it hadn’t been tied down enough on the foundation blocks. Barn got jacked up, foundations moved, and the structure tied down a lot more strongly.

      Last night the wind was pretty gusty. Our wooden framed apartment was doing considerable movement. That cat was whimpering about it most of the night.

      //—

      • it was the late 70s. From memory that land cost less than $25k. The choice was a batch by the beach or a place to enslave teenagers and make them do hard labour on weekends. It was surprisingly fun to have cooking fires powered by old Puriri batterns and posts (no power), chase sheep, goats and cattle, and do a lot of building and fencing.
      Reply
    • ianmac 8.2
      27 June 2025 at 2:11 pm

      How sad to see the Wonderful Tanya leave politics. Who will replace her to smirk and laugh at the wonderful clever Winston points of order especially the ones that have a racist element.Yes so sad. Ha ha!

      Reply
  9. Phillip ure 9
    27 June 2025 at 11:42 am

    Two new names for being off your tits:

    'i'm eloning'..

    And…' he's musked'..

    Reply
  10. Drowsy M. Kram 10
    27 June 2025 at 11:47 am

    Was mentioned by SPC (Daily Review, 25 June), but worth revisiting for Emmerson’s take.

    NZ pulls out of global coalition for phasing out fossil fuels [RNZ, 25 June 2025]

    Careful now RNZ – watts watts, don't you know.

    Reply
  11. Stephen D 11
    27 June 2025 at 12:48 pm

    Have a look at Reddit.

    r/collapse

    To see our possible future.

    Reply
  12. Bearded Git 12
    27 June 2025 at 1:04 pm

    The COC's disastrous housing policy (where it saves money by axing state house builds to give tax cuts to landlords) is significantly increasing people sleeping on the streets or in cars. See The Jackal side panel, or here.

    https://thejackalman.blogspot.com/2025/06/nationals-housing-hypocrisy-new-zealand.html

    More great analysis from The Jackal.

    Reply
    • bwaghorn 12.1
      27 June 2025 at 4:38 pm

      What I want to know is what is labour planning to do about homelessness, (which will be huge) when they get back in. The motels was a hoof idea that kinda back fired

      Reply
      • joe90 12.1.1
        27 June 2025 at 6:00 pm

        What I want to know is what is labour planning to do about homelessness

        Do what Savage, Nash, and Fraser did ninety years ago and find another James Fletcher.

        https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/auckland-fletcher-builds-a-city/EZP2JVFLL2AU26TT3NSMQ2WEC4/

        https://nzhistory.govt.nz/culture/state-housing-in-nz

        Reply
        • PsyclingLeft.Always 12.1.1.1
          27 June 2025 at 7:54 pm

          This ^. Get Building again as soon as these NACT1 scum are turfed out. No messing !

          I seem to recall you had posted quite a while back you had some local knowledge/input of certain historic NZ company/building style etc ?

          Anyway, IMO Carpenters,Plumbers. Electricians, et al, be keen as. (some maybe come back from Aus?)

          Train Apprentices. Subbies guaranteed work AND pay.

          This would be a Labour I would vote for !

          Reply
      • KJT 12.1.2
        27 June 2025 at 7:08 pm

        Not obvious what else could be done, in the short term, after the Key Government flogged off State houses while still bringing in thousands of people.

        Reply
      • gsays 12.1.3
        28 June 2025 at 7:18 am

        “What I want to know is what is labour planning to do about homelessness”
        There are enough houses, allocation is an issue.
        Sure, build more but there are other things to do as well.

        A rapidly 'sinking lid' on landlords. Any new rentals must be new builds. A winding back of the Accomadation supplement. An eye watering tax on ghost houses. Squatters Rights…

        But what do you really expect a party riddled with landlords to do about housing redistribution?

        Reply
  13. Dennis Frank 13
    27 June 2025 at 1:46 pm

    Circumcision features as part of identity politics at the top level. Guys may have to demonstrate their physical qualifications to pass muster…

    A bitter standoff between Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and the Armenian Apostolic Church has seen mass arrests, allegations of a coup plot, and an extraordinary offer by Armenia's leader to reveal his private parts to prove he is a Christian. Earlier this week, Pashinyan told his 1.1 million followers on Facebook he was prepared to expose himself to the head of the Armenian Church and his spokesman, to prove they were wrong that he had been circumcised. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gk0nw2nn0o

    Lest paranoia become contagious, try to keep in mind that such traditional thinking only prevails as part of normalcy, continuously maintained by social inertia. Progressive thinkers need not succumb. One can be resolute and keep one's victimisation by the state in the post-war era private (one only need get a grip). Readers unaware of how many kiwi male babies were circumcised by the state can get up to speed via Google.

    Reply
    • lprent 13.1
      27 June 2025 at 2:10 pm

      Brings a new meaning to dick-waving politics. No more with the nuclear missiles, weird tweets, security clearances, etc etc.. Now it is about hidden mutilation identity politics being displayed in public.

      George Carlin had a great set of pungent and barbed routines on the subject.

      Reply
    • SPC 13.2
      27 June 2025 at 5:47 pm

      The story is complex.

      It involves a dual citizen, Russian-Armenian, who is supporting the church against the nations leader. And Russia is supporting him.

      Following Karapetyan's arrest giant billboards with his photos appeared in Moscow – and Russia's Armenian diaspora expressed support for the billionaire.

      In Russia, the ROC effectively functions as the de facto privileged religion of Russia, holding a special status. The government of Putin and the church support each other (it supported the invasion/attempt to annex Ukraine).

      The unstated matter being white race Christian identity nationalism.

      The archbishop led major anti-government protests last year and a court has now ruled that he should spend two months in pre-trial detention

      This May

      The confrontation between Church and state began at the end of May when the prime minister accused the head of the Armenian Apostolic Church, Catholicos Karekin II, of breaking his vow of celibacy and fathering a child, demanding the church leader's replacement.

      Followed by

      "I believe that our Apostolic Holy Church must immediately cleanse itself," said Father Zareh Ashuryan, "of those false 'believers' who have betrayed the nation, dishonoured the memory of their ancestors, violated the baptism, and replaced the seal of the Holy Cross with the sign of circumcision."

      There is supposedly a separation of church and state in Armenia, but clearly the church is politically active.

      But in the end, the church leader is inferring Armenia struggled in military battle with Azerbaijan because of the state of its leaders genitals.

      The case for the continued separation of church and state is thus affirmed.

      Reply

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