Open mike is your post. For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose. The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy). Step right up to the mike…
Interesting new poll: http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/9332786/Poll-a-major-blow-to-Labour
Personally, I struggle to believe National could get more than the 47.3% it won in 2011. Governments tend to lose votes over time. Having said that, National won only 44.9% in 2008 so John Key has already broken the rule once.
National at 49% – but in the election they got 45%! 4% of their vote just disappeared
Basically the Fairfax poll has always massively overstated the National potential to win votes. I guess that is why you cling to it like a child wrapping themselves around their comfort blankie…
Well, exactly. The polls always seem to overstate National’s support. Although you are not comparing apples with apples. This poll was by Ipsos, the 2011 one was by Research International and the 2005 one by Nielson.
But you have just successfully made the case for ignoring Fairfax polls.
That three different companies have consistently managed to follow practices that massively overstate Nationals support tends to indicate that there may be a systematic bias from that source? It is a small sample but it certainly does indicate that to me…
It’s not just Fairfax though. All the main polls (Herald, Fairfax, TVNZ, TV3) have tended to overstate National’s support. It’s as if their sampling has some sort of inbuilt bias against the smaller parties. One thing’s for sure though the latest Roy Morgan with Nats on 41.5% (and no chance of forming a majority) and this Fairfax poll with Nats on 50% can’t both be right.
Something to keep in mind when making that comparison, is that pre-election poll was carried out by a different polling company. Ipsos started polling for Fairfax after the election.
I know. But if you look back in the record for fairfax polls you’ll find at least one other company doing their polls that I’m aware of. It never seems to make much difference to the overall outcome that the “Fairfax poll” gets. They massively overstate the right to suspicious extent. I suspect that the polling companies that Fairfax uses all operate by the maxim that the customer is always right(ish).
That plus their sporadic schedule means that they are essentially useless when divining the tea leaves for election results. Probably why Matthew dribbles on about them.
I prefer the much more frequent polling by Roy Morgan that isn’t done for any organisation with a hidden agenda. Despite the usual statistical variation and sampling biases, it is possible to see actual trends in that rather than the need for interesting headlines.
I don’t think though that any polling company would let a client influence the results in any way, shape, or form. The interpretation maybe, but not the results themselves. If polling company did, they could be thrown out of the MRSNZ.
Given the expectation for how well Labour/Greens are doing at the moment, I suspect the people at Fairfax were a surprised by the result as people here are.
I suspect the people at Fairfax were a surprised by the result as people here are.
That is the daft thing. I wasn’t surprised. If you think of this thing narratively rather than statistically, then a completely different poll result that can spun as a reversal is one of those twists that makes for a good story.
I don’t think though that any polling company would let a client influence the results in any way, shape, or form. The interpretation maybe, but not the results themselves. If polling company did, they could be thrown out of the MRSNZ.
All that has to be done is to pick a technique that may follow statistical practices, but does not accurately reflect the voting population.
For instance my favourite example is the way that using listed land line polling systematically overstates the right. Parts of Auckland have been down at or lower than 50% listed-land-lines per household against the electoral roll for nearly a decade. Whereas in other parts of the country are closer to 90% listed-land-line. Moreover apart from the urban/provincials split, in every region the poorer voters and the younger voters with a landline are distinctly more likely to not have a accessible land-line.
So guess what is the sampling technique that Fairfax pays for?
I’m pretty sure none of the main polling companies survey only listed landlines. They use RDD, so every landline is given a chance of selection, including the unlisted ones.
Sampling from the electoral roll would be a silly idea for a phone survey, coz you would have to match with only listed numbers. That’s pretty daft for a political poll, as lists are biased in favour of home and vehicle owners.
Ah no. RDD is a bit of a myth. Even if you had the switch ranges, the number system gaps between exchanges mean that it is unlikely to be random. Without them in a 8 digit system covering less than 2 million households, your probabilities are low to even find a open number.
But more basically, try and find a person with unlisted numbers who has been called.
The electoral roll is the population that is attempted to be sampled in a political poll.
I think you should look into RDD a bit more. You simply ping them to test if they are connected.
As I said, matching the electoral roll with published phone listings results in a bias toward home and vehicle owners, and an extremely small response rate if you factor in all the people you can’t match.
RDD ain’t no myth. I use it myself, and we update it to cover all known number ranges.
I hope no offence is taken by this, but I’m afraid you misunderstand the process of generating RDD sample.
Random numbers are generated within known number ranges. It’s not hard to work out the known number ranges from published listings. The random numbers are then pinged to find the connected numbers. There is a whole lot more to the process too, like selecting in proportion to the size of each area while factoring in the connection rate.
I use RDD for surveys I design, so I know exactly how it’s done, and how it shown be done properly. For my surveys we call people with unlisted numbers all the time.
Using the electoral roll for telephone samples requires tele-matching against published listings. These listings are biased in favour of home and vehicle owners, and they exclude unlisted numbers. Also, once you factor in all the people you can’t match, either because they have no landline, they have moved, or their number is unlisted, then the response rate for this type of survey is *extremely* low.
I can guarantee you that RDD sampling isn’t a myth. Just send me an email if you’d like to know more about it.
So RDD based sampling for political polls captures persons not on the electoral roll as well?
If RDD sampling is reasonably systematically unbiased, how else can you explain National’s support being fairly consistently over-estimated by the polls?
A case in point was John Armstrong in a column a month or so ago,(sorry i havn’t got a link for it), openly admitted that He ‘thought’ the Reid-poll skewed it’s results by asking respondents a series of leading questions designed specifically to have respondents favor one party over another…
If it’s true that Armstrong said that, then I believe he’s wrong.
The polling code, which is soon to be ratified by the MRSNZ, requires the principal voting question to be asked early in the interview. The person who runs the Reid poll was involved in putting the code together. I know him, and I don’t believe he would do this.
Andrew, i like naive people, you know the person involved in putting the Reid-poll together, explains your explanations then doesn’t it, care to explain what connection you have to these polling organizations…
Both your assertions are to say the least questionable without the addition of the magic stuff that makes the pie taste sweet, ‘Proof’,
By ‘research’ are you alluding to the particular branch of alchemy which produces political polls???,
i do not know whether the question you ask is directed at me personally as i have no say what-so-ever in who comments here at the Standard, but, as an indicative signpost i usually distrust those who’s writing tends to portray them in a light of a somewhat different hue than the musings of your average Labour Party supporter,
In other words suit yourself an examination of a continued commentary from you would in effect show us all where your true political allegiances should or do lie….
Ghostrider, for a negative comment directed at me it contains not enough information to give you a full reply so i will just resort to yes dickhead i do…
Maybe the answer is a lot simpler – bully tactics, long practiced at school level and beyond. If you can convince a many of the validity of a few you can win the argument. Publish that party xy is the top dog and bob is your uncle. All you need is some gullible folk and unveiled threat of doom.
Participation in the political process would demand some interest in the community and nation at large. Look around you and be honest. My experience is that if I just make an innocent comment in my work canteen such as:” it will be difficult for west coasters to find a job”, blank stares is all I get. I don’t bother with conversation about the social/political life really, there is no vigorous thought process out there and I don’t want to provoke some banjo playing. Best to stick to the weather, family, sport and hmmmm…. food perhaps is another one.
This is why such pols become self fulfilling prophecies.
I don’t have any trouble believing that the poll has National able or nearly able to form a government. There are an awful lot of people who honestly think the opinions expressed on Whaleoil and Kiwiblog are rational.
There are an awful lot of people who honestly think the opinions expressed on Whaleoil and Kiwiblog are rational.
That is what makes National the largest party. They have been consolidating the nuts over the last decade as the other conservative parties die from voter starvation. But even with the 800k non-vote, they have pretty well hit the limits of how much the right accretion in the upcoming election.
That lack of accretion is the underlying reason for the SOE asset sales. They were hoping to widen the base of shareholding voters to increase their pool of voters.
Just have a look at what gets posted as “Pete”, and pay particular attention to the regular features. Draw your own conclusions.
Of course it’s possible that Slater actually does have a staff of several different people posting on his site under various names, but you’d have to ask why they keep sharing their logins with each other.
Keep clutching at them straws Hooten, i thought even you wouldn’t be so stupid as to keep trying to flog the ‘Governing alone’ ghost back to life,
It’s good to see such desperation across the whole written media spectrum with the Herald writers now producing only advertorials extolling the National Government this should give them a little more oxygen…
a clear marker of the widespread panic in the right..
..(aside from the corporate-media editors desperately searching for little shards of rightwing-light..anywhere they can..funny to watch..that one..eh..?..)
..is that they are viewing (E.T.-impersonator/christian-fundamentalist in neo-con-drag) colin craig..
It’s easy tho to see why clutching at the very thin straws other’s have plucked from the bale is more to Hootens liking than the political prediction site which He now claims,(since it started producing results He don’t like), to not have anything to do with,
From ipredict this morning,
Prime Minister after 2014 election, Cunliffe 53.3%, Slippery(Key) 48%,
Finance Minister after 2014 election, Parker 50%, English 37.8%,
Party Vote 2014 election, National 40.1%, Governing alone, nah laughably Governing non-one…
Mind you the ‘Loons’ over at ipredict don’t get into trying to ‘lead’ the voters round by the nose with the simpletons ‘National can Govern alone polls’ of the boring old mass media,
The ‘Loons’ over at the other place like to plumb the depths of their affliction by producing suggestive ‘predictions’ of a National/NZFirst/Conservative grand coalition,
NZ First and the Conservatives with 4.7% of the Party vote each, come in ‘spinner’…
As bad12 alludes to, I no longer do the PR for iPredict, but I still think it provides far better indications of future events, including elections, than polls. As bad12 points out, it says Labour is favoured and that its probability of leading the next govt has increased since the change of leader.
”Come in spinner” and lo and behold He does, spinning ever faster Hooten now flips the coin and speaks from the other side of His mouth,
The Fairfax poll gives the next election to National and the ipredict gives the next election to Labour/Green and you believe the both of them Hooten???,
Things must get really interesting inside your head…
And that’s why Labour should can any ideas about converting “centre” votes from National. There are far more votes to be had winning the disengaged, and you don’t have to be a sellout to do it.
In her opinion piece, Tracy Watkins says “That is the shifting ground beneath undecided voters. Among the 12.5 per cent of voters we questioned, 29.7 per cent lean toward Labour, while 22.2 per cent lean to National.”
So assuming that 12.5% = the undecided voters, that still leaves 9.4% of people not intending to vote. 9% is still a lot, but I think that would be a better turnout than last election which is something (assuming all undecided voters vote).
It’s adorable how you say “Interesting new poll” as though you’re not pushing a very specific narrative by posting it. No no, this is just Matthew Hooton, naive, unbiased commenter, linking to something he thinks will be of interest to his fellow Standard commenters, honest, pay no attention to the rightwing spin behind the curtain. 🙄
More of Hootens Horseshit. He spouts it here, he spouts it there, he spouts it everywhere, FFS Hooten. The only ones that believe this crap, are you, BB, and the Knuckle dragger. The rest of us are waiting or the REAL poll. From Morgans.
[lprent:I see you haven’t lost your ability to be outright stupid is still intacft. The question is if I want to have the pointless abuse it generates between here and next years election? ]
And yet when people who review and produce music for a living rate artists and albums across decades and genres Lou features twice (berlin and transformer) and the velevet underground 3 times.
So between them and the punters he appears universally overated, I guess we cant all have your refined tastes BB.
I prefer to pay attention to Brian Eno rather than BB – and not just on music:
The band’s influence on rock, art rock and punk was memorably summed up by Brian Eno’s observation that although the first Velvet Underground album may have sold only 30,000 copies in its first few years, “everyone who bought one of those 30,000 copies started a band”.
We are at that point where alot of the ground breaking artists of the 60-80’s are passing on. Bowie is heading toward 70 and a decade or so of cocaine abuse will probably catch him also.
Just watched sorcese’s excellent doco on George harrison, well worth a look.
eno is a legend with an intellect most artists would kill for.
Big Bruv writes – ‘As for Lou Reed, highly over rated.’
By who? You? Who are you to state such a vacuous thing on the day he died? Fuck Off The Planet you Dick.
Hard to believe poll really. The fact of the matter is that polls and politics are full of professional liars and manipulators so the voter has little chance to make genuine choices anymore and the fact of the matter is they havent since the rise and dominance of polls and professional liars over the last few years.
I find all polls distasteful and unnecessary. Deliberately operating to tell people what to think.
lets trial having no polls for 3 years. The fact of the matter is that Life wont decline for anyone but the professional liars and pollsters.
I propose that everytime the professional liars come up with a new bullshit word strategy that all parties and people start using it liberally to neutralise it.
If Nationals internal polling was indicating that Key was really going to beat his 2011 result… Hooten wouldn’t be working early on Labour Day.
The problem for Key is that despite the media bullshit, Key only won the last election by 45,000 votes. Maybe less. He has no margin of safety to lose.
Nonetheless, the point is made: Labour and the Greens have to play a sharp game over the next 12 months, National is going to Fight back hard. They’re not just going to walk away in 2014.
Xox
Firstly. Polls are unnecessary, distracting and manipulative.
Second. No surprise there, they are right leaning and publicise a right wing view.
Third. This tactic was successful for the Right wing at the last election, as evidenced by the low voter turnout, which clearly indicated disengagement from the democratic process.
Russell Brand has a valid point. Voting for the corporate backed
current democratic process is failing. USA, GB, France, Italy, Spain, Greece, Ireland etc etc. Why don’t we try something new called Democracy. Cf corporate crazy.. Dumocrupcy!
Forest and Bird,
Any truth in the rumour that forest and bird are buying shares in Bathurst Resources to try to regain some of the money they have thrown away on frivolous court challenges ???
[lprent: seems unlikely. Changed an unlinked attempt to create a rumour to an appropriate color. Next time you try it, you disappear for a while. ]
In the new poll, 1/5th of voters hadn’t made up their minds yet, and most of those undecided voters were leaning towards Labour. Shows how much Labour needs to increase voter turnout.
Is another Roy Morgan poll coming out soon? Seems we are due for one.
And I agree with some of the above sentiment about opinion polls. They should be banned during campaign season. They just encourage people to either vote for the winner (bandwagon effect), or vote for the loser (underdog effect). People should be voting on their preference. Also waste time on the news when they could be reporting about actual issues.
I’d advocate for a ban on polling activity and poll reporting for the 72 hours before election day, to force people and the press to focus on debating the issues, not the polls.
DTB
I think that the polling etc keeps the election before the public. It wouldn’t be good to have it pushed onto the backburner in people’s minds. Maybe stop polls etc for two weeks before, not longer. People who are particularly susceptible to poll reports will be making their minds up in the last two, even one, week.
I picked a 3 day poll blackout period in order to balance concerns around freedom of press. If there was widespread support for a longer period say 7 or 14 days then yes, it should be implemented.
If we add those voters in and assume they vote for who they lean towards, National lose a seat, but still have 62 seats in a 124 seat House (assuming all electorate seats are held). This might be some consolation to any of you who are worried about a National government that can govern on its own.
An also interesting fact is that this poll is the third most viewed item according to stuff. I don’t know if that bodes well for Labour or not, but it is interesting given that I assumed the average voter didn’t give a crap about polls this far from an election.
People-smugglers in Indonesia are promoting a passage to New Zealand in
shipping containers for up to $17,000 a person and are describing it to
would-be customers as “the cruise ship option”, an Australian news
investigation has found.
Exactly bad – a made up story with the only real interest being why now, what are they afraid of, what don’t they want people talking about – hmmm hollowhooton gives a clue, I also notice some righties still trying to beat up brown – spring is definitely here – lots of blowhards and some spittle.
LOLZ, i can well imagine that particular ship steaming toward Wellington Harbor with A container full of refugees sitting on the deck,(nothing to see here officer)…
Tony Abbott elected on promises of stopping the “boat people”, doesn’t believe in climate change … Fairfax newspapers 14% owned by mining magnate Gina Rinehart start spinning the idea that the “boat people” won’t be coming to Australia. Convenient.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=olUsgn-Ubh0&
According to the video at the bottom of the link above 52% of fast food families use public assistance benefits to survive (time stamp 1:35- 1:42 but watch until the end it’s only a few seconds and it makes a valid point)
What percentage of NZ families that work in similar jobs are reliant on the state for assistance just to pay basic living costs? If welfare is known to be dangerous to your health, why is the burden not shifted back onto the employer instead of the state?
Big business and big money rules US politics now. Has done for about 40 years. Extremely bad in the last 10 years. Their ability to maintain their Union will come into real question one day.
Well, duh, then the employer wouldn’t make as much profit and they would only have one income stream rather than two. The second being all the money that they’re loaning the government to pay for the costs induced by their low wages.
McD’s USA
These comments are at the bottom of the item at No.9 on low pay. It seems that all of us brought up under the western free market propaganda model respond to complaints by finding fault with the complainer. Being able to coolly look at the situation in its context is not a skill learned at school or home.
fidel 27.10.2013 19:15 – reply to
Ed Walton 25.10.2013 01:58
She’s worked at an entry level job for ten years; yet has no skills to move up. McDonalds isn’t the problem.
Reply – Hey Ed, I’ve worked in this type of environment years ago and it hasn’t changed. As soon as you get the smarts on doing your job and show any initiative, they lay you off. They have a wage ceiling and as soon as you arrive at it, the next step is the door. A lot cheaper to hire 15+ year olds and pay them squat
fidel 27.10.2013 19:05 – reply to
Jp 27.10.2013 06:19
This is smoke screen… Mcdonald that’s for young adults, just to learn how to work… That was my first job 32 years ago! Why are they still working there?
Reply – Th ere aren’t any other jobs you idiot, or do you ever get out or read a newspaper? The real unemployment rate in the good ole USA is almost 10%!
Ya know, you cant pick and choose the polls you like and dont like, you can talk of trends, over and under polling, but when a majority of polls are pointing to one thing, then that thing is probably going to happen. The only thing that is a certainly is that the greens always poll way higher than the numbers they actually get on election day.
Third term for national for sure, but then Labour will get in the next time, because they will stop this communist stance that they’re promoting to make all the unionists and pta members hard.
“Ya know, you cant pick and choose the polls you like and dont like”
Why not, as long as you pick and chose on the basis of faulty method or demonstrated bias. Picking and choosing on the basis of the results would be stupid.
So I take it you support a Final Solution for trade unionists.
Given that you supported the anti union thug, Peter Jackson, who would rather take production of his crappy overlong movie offshore than deal with a trade union and give his workers sick leave and ACC, that pretty much makes you anti union. And who cares if banning unions would guarantee a sweatshop economy, like in China.
Peter Jackson should be in court for his anti democratic thuggish behavior, and the systematic black listing of unionists in the movie industry is something that needs a Royal Commission to look into, and others to be procecuted. Even if every producer, director and film boss in the country was hauled before the ERA and every dollar squeezed out of them in fines.
BEING IN A UNION IS A DEMOCRATIC RIGHT.
Had PJ made the Hobbit in China, all he had to do was ring up the local PLA barracks, and AE members would be sent to the nearest labour camp, or worse.
“Ya know, you cant pick and choose the polls you like and dont like, you can talk of trends, over and under polling, but when a majority of polls are pointing to one thing, then that thing is probably going to happen.”
And the majority of polls point to a change of Government. So what was your, er, point, again?
You mean the three polls after the labour leader election, that pointed to the labour/greens victory and not the 75 polls that pointed to a national victory?
75-3, now Im no good will hunting, but ya dont need to be, with those numbers.
Yeah, ’cause political opinions don’t change over time, and a poll that is 3+ years out from an election is going to be more accurate than one taken 1 year out from an election.
It must be a very confusing place inside that little brain of yours, Brett.
Of the last 14 Roy Morgan polls, the left bloc have come out ahead in 10 of them, and the last 5 in a row. So there’s that.
According to Brett’s logic, National did not actually form a government in 2008, because the majority of polls conducted over 1999-2008 showed Labour would be able to form a government.
His mental dysfunction goes even deeper than that: clearly we only need to conduct a single political poll, because nothing ever changes. That’s why Brett was so surprised to see *another poll* conducted, because what would be the point of that?
No Brett, Key was the firm fave in about 20 out of the 144 polls conducted over the 1999-2008 period, so therefore Labour was obviously going to win 2008, based on the exact same logic you’ve displayed in this thread.
Im always running, but im always running behind.
Never stop to smell the roses the roses, you can always
smell them when your running with them in your hand.
Brett, just about every recent poll, including the historically inaccurate ones like this, show National’s slow slide to the opposition benches. Like it or not, this is MMP and there is no poll saying that National is going win more votes than they did at the last election and without UF, ACT and the MP to prop them up, that’s what they have to do to win.
Donkeyote is beginning to look more and more like the “MUMMY” on teevee last night.
When the magic formula is read he will disappear like a puff of dust.
“simultaneous to this increase in election poll incidence and coverage has been a worldwide decline in issue based political reporting.[3] The increased focus on election poll results and coalition possibilities is said to have “squeezed” out more relevant types of political information.[4] Factual reporting on parties’ and candidates’ policy positions, track records and capabilities is in sharp decline.[5] This holds true in regard to the 2008 New Zealand election campaign: of the top five most covered topics in the media (accounting for 50% of all election campaign coverage), only one topic, the economy, involved discussion of policy, track records and capabilities.[6] While media coverage of election poll results and coalition possibilities is increasing, reporting of political issues is becoming increasingly superficial and trivial.[7]””
Iprent, you seem to forget how Labour did over the same period. If you look at the average of polls you will see in 12 months before the 2011 election National dropped 4% but Labour dropped nearly twice that at 7.5%.
I know its hard to bare but when the cold light of argument shines on Labours policies and record they dont seem to do so well. Cunliffes honeymoon only lasted a month, JKs seems to be going on forever. Remember all that rubbish in 2009 when all were saying JKs honeymoon is over!
A link to the proof of your assertions will go a long way toward making the debate more meaningful or did you just read the comments in the post and think to apply Nationals 2011 pre-election polling from the same organization being presently discussed to the Labour Party instead…
Did you forget that once the books were made public Cullen said”the cupboard is bare” a great achievement after 9 years when the economies of every country in the OECD boomed. After 5 years of National Government when the World has been in recession, we have Growth in NZ,the envy of most OECD countiies. Under the last 6 months of Labour Negative Growth,of as Labours finance minister said” a technical recession”
Did you forget that you wingnuts spent nine years complaining that Cullen was running a surplus and paying down debt?
When you say “the cupboard is bare”, you do recall some tax cuts eh? You see, government raises revenue (that means money) by levying “taxes” (like tennis club fees) and then uses them to provide services as approved by Parliament – things like roads and schools and hospitals and remedial education and support teachers, and all the other things you are a beneficiary of.
So when a government voluntarily slashes its own income who emptied the cupboard?
Please try and keep up.
what a blinkered opinion, Cullen said the cupboard was bare before National had a budget and lowered taxes,did you forget they also put up GST to compensate for the loss of income or is your memory just a bit selective. Remember also that increasing taxes isnt the only answer, it was labours only answer but try growth. You know that thing thats happening under a National Government. More growth =more income = more taxerevenue. Just trying to Tax Rich pricks is a failed Labour policy. If you want a succesful economy it has to grow pushing up wages without growth and taxes without increasing income just leaves you and your policies on the opposition benches,funny that isnt it!
If you dont believe me check Greece and cyprus and most of Europe,especialy the bits with a leftwing Government.
What a strange answer. Have wages realoy gone down over the last30 years , thefacts say different.
evidence for “despite national” In recession National has done as well as Labour in the boom years. You explain why we were 2 places lower inOECD rankings after Labour got in and since National got in WE have gained 2 places! ! to 2 billion ,which, its quite a big difference. Are you saying we are better off because National reduced our total tax gift to the Government and yet improved policing ,health and the economy. More of that please!
Sorry mate, you are dreaming. Most people reading this blog understand that prices have gone up while wages and hours have struggled and fallen behind.
Shame you are so out of touch, you almost had prospects (well, not really).
Must be all those facts that you’re not used to seeing.
In recession National has done as well as Labour in the boom years.
Citation needed and, no, linking to National Party website, Kiwiblog or WhaleOil will not be regarded as reliable source.
You explain why we were 2 places lower inOECD rankings after Labour got in and since National got in WE have gained 2 places!
Oh, that’s easy. We were, and still are, following neo-liberal policies, i.e, the free-market. This resulted in our economy turning to custard over the last thirty years. The reason why we’re relatively up now is because a few other countries, following the same delusional economic prescriptions, have suddenly become worse off (really, this is only a surprise to the neo-liberals and RWNJs).
Are you saying we are better off because National reduced our total tax gift to the Government and yet improved policing ,health and the economy.
Nope, I’m saying we’re worse off because of those things. More poverty, more money going to the non-productive rich and debt sky-rocketing.
You spelled ‘Want’ wrong, and should have finished with a question mark not a comma.
Cullen lowered taxes you nonce, hence the ‘cupboard being bare’ comment.
As for National’s growth, if you factor out record dairy prices, you start to get what they can take credit for. Building roads that don’t make the grade in terms of the Ministry’s own method for determining good value spending, rebuilding ChCh which has to happen but falls under ‘broken windows’, and a housing boom that English spent the first few years telling us was what his ‘rebalancing’ of the economy was supposed to move us away from.
Well you must be looking at a socialist version. When Labour came to goverment the last time we were rated 20th on our economy in the OECD. Clarks plan was to increase our ranking. In 2004 we had dropped to21st, 2007 to 22nd were we remained until National took over. We are now back to 20th under National. Its taken 5 years to undo the damage Labour did last time.
For the bulk of the Clark govt, NZ averaged a quarter of a percent above the OECD quarterly growth figure, with about a quarter of the data points being lower than the OECD average..
For Key’s government, that’s not less than a tenth above the OECD figure on average, with a ratio of 7:11 under:over the OECD average.
We’re only at 20 in the OECD list because the other countries in the list dropped farther after the GFC than we did.
I don’t think this is to any particular credit to National, because they basically did nothing in response to the GFC – not really difficult. I think it’s more a reflection of our economy: we’re a primary producer of agricultural products with very little in the way of value-add. This makes it difficult for us to rise up the OECD rankings, but conversely also means we won’t fall as far when troubled economic times hit, because we simply don’t have a very complex or dynamic economy.
Reality Draco. Labour in the wildest dreams cant expect to come near 50% in the election. National are going to be bloody close! Labour see it as a great success to get above 30% in the polls and see it as a failure if National get less than 50%. What a strange World to live in.
National need 50% in order to be able to form a government.
It’s an ideal example of why neoliberalism fails: by refusing cooperation and basic social interaction with anyone of a different creed, National now need to provide pretty much all their electoral support for themselves. If they fail to achieve an outstanding victory, they will sit on the opposition benches until they learn to play with others. The left, on the other hand, can work together, respecting, accepting, and accommodating different policy objectives. Each party might not achieve dominance and the power to ram through their particular policy fetish, but by working together, they have a much better chance of sitting on the government benches. While scrooge mcfuck yells “humbug” from the other side, while getting his woodlice to sniff underwear in the search for scandal.
I am not so sure how the next election will go to be honest. Mr Cunliffe is as silent as Shearer was. The general public needs to know what Labour stands for as many have forgotten. One needs to remember that the ordinary folks out there are scared to loose the job, being able to raise their kids, pay the doctor, go onto retirement etc… once people are in that predicament its very difficult to get them changing their opinion and vote, if they vote at all.
What do you mean with Huh??? – Maybe academic and political circles talk a lot about him, but Joe blogs does not hear much. I know he is traveling the provinces but what are the policies re employment, growth, sustainability, debt and taxes etc…try to ask people in the street and you will quickly realize that not many can give any answers.
Yes, but isn’t that his job? He was sitting a long time on the backbench able to put some coherent ideas together. Or is this just a case of not revealing to much too soon?
Aint going to work as he hasnt done well. Do you realy think trying to rig the poll will help Labour. See colmar Brunton. Labour 34% and only a third of them think hes a good performer. Do I see another Labour leader before election day.
Ok you’ll need to explain why that comment was creepy because apart from what I’m guessing is your inability to distinguish between reality and fantasy I’m not sure how something that was complimentary could be taken as creepy
But I’m sure you’ll have some totally plausible explanation
When the economy is fucked, the unemployment is on the rise and the living standard keeps dropping, let’s keep the masses distracted with scaremongering about boatloads of asylum seekers heading for our shores:
Economy F8888d not according to every economic indicator.A world reccession and National are dragging NZ up the OECD scale, unlike Labour were we dropped.
And your comment shows very much what manipulation is being applied. Of cause the US is in a very bad state due to the money press running since quite a while. What will happen when it stops? The contraction in the world markets will certainly be felt. Japan, another one that is in a similar situation and China’s economy is coming off the boil. Of cause NZ looks good against this backdrop, even Bangladesh would. To compare this to a NZ when all 3 major trading partners had not yet seen the banking crush of 2008 is simply deceit. None of the NZ parties will or have ever been able to influence any of this. To sell this to the NZ public as an achievement is almost treachery.
This might appeal to all those upright ethical tory lads suddenly so concerned about leadership ethics and morality……
From NRT: John Key [p 13] spent $110 on very expensive skin-care products, tagged as “NZ skin care for protocol officer”. Was it a gift? Because if it wasn’t, it seems extravagant. Not to mention odd
Graham Adams writes about the $55m media fund — When Patrick Gower was asked by Mike Hosking last week what he would say to the many Newstalk ZB callers who allege the Labour government bribed media with $55 million of taxpayers’ money via the Public Interest Journalism Fund — and ...
Note: this blog post has been put together over the course of the week I followed the happenings at the conference virtually. Should recordings of the Great Debates and possibly Union Symposia mentioned below, be released sometime after the conference ends, I'll include links to the ones I participated in. ...
The following was my submission made on the “Fast Track Approvals Bill”. This potential law will give three Ministers unchecked powers, un-paralled since the days of Robert Muldoon’s “Think Big” projects.The submission is written a bit tongue-in-cheek. But it’s irreverent because the FTAB is in itself not worthy of respect. ...
One Could Reduce Child Poverty At No Fiscal CostFollowing the Richardson/Shipley 1990 ‘redesign of the welfare state’ – which eliminated the universal Family Benefit and doubled the rate of child poverty – various income supplements for families have been added, the best known being ‘Working for Families’, introduced in 2005. ...
Buzz from the Beehive A few days ago, Point of Order suggested the media must be musing “on why Melissa is mute”. Our article reported that people working in the beleaguered media industry have cause to yearn for a minister as busy as Melissa Lee’s ministerial colleagues and we drew ...
1. What was The Curse of Jim Bolger?a. Winston Peters b. Soon after shaking his hand, world leaders would mysteriously lose office or shuffle off this mortal coilc. Could never shake off the Mother of All Budgetsd. Dandruff2. True or false? The Chairman of a Kiwi export business has asked the ...
Jack Vowles writes – New Zealand is said to be suffering from ‘serious populist discontent’. An IPSOS MORI survey has reported that we have an increasing preference for strong leaders, think that the economy is rigged toward the rich and powerful, and political elites are ignoring ‘hard-working people’. ...
Chris Trotter writes – MELISSA LEE should be deprived of her ministerial warrant. Her handling – or non-handling – of the crisis engulfing the New Zealand news media has been woeful. The fate of New Zealand’s two linear television networks, a question which the Minister of Broadcasting, Communications ...
TL;DR: The podcast above features co-hosts and , along with regular guests Robert Patman on Gaza and AUKUS II, and on climate change.The six things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the ...
Policymakers rarely wish to make plain or visible their desire to dismantle environmental policy, least of all to the young. Photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: Here’s the top five news items of note in climate news for Aotearoa-NZ this week, and a discussion above between Bernard Hickey and The Kākā’s climate correspondent ...
I like to keep an eye on what’s happening in places like the UK, the US, and over the ditch with our good mates the Aussies. Let’s call them AUKUS, for want of a better collective term. More on that in a bit.It used to be, not long ago, that ...
TL;DR: The global economy will be one fifth smaller than it would have otherwise been in 2050 as a result of climate damage, according to a new study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and published in the journal Nature. (See more detail and analysis below, and ...
New Zealand is said to be suffering from ‘serious populist discontent’. An IPSOS MORI survey has reported that we have an increasing preference for strong leaders, think that the economy is rigged toward the rich and powerful, and political elites are ignoring ‘hard-working people’. The data is from February this ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters is understood to be planning a major speech within the next fortnight to clear up the confusion over whether or not New Zealand might join the AUKUS submarine project. So far, there have been conflicting signals from the Government. RNZ reported the Prime Minister yesterday in ...
Life throws curveballs, and sometimes, those curveballs necessitate wiping your iPhone clean and starting anew. Whether you’re facing persistent software glitches, preparing to sell your device, or simply wanting a fresh start, knowing how to factory reset iPhone without a computer is a valuable skill. While using a computer with ...
Gone are the days when communication was limited to landline phones and physical proximity. Today, computers have become powerful tools for connecting with people across the globe through voice and video calls. But with a plethora of applications and methods available, how to call someone on a computer might seem ...
Open access notables Glacial isostatic adjustment reduces past and future Arctic subsea permafrost, Creel et al., Nature Communications:Sea-level rise submerges terrestrial permafrost in the Arctic, turning it into subsea permafrost. Subsea permafrost underlies ~ 1.8 million km2 of Arctic continental shelf, with thicknesses in places exceeding 700 m. Sea-level variations over glacial-interglacial cycles control ...
The operating system (OS) is the heart and soul of a computer, orchestrating every action and interaction between hardware and software. But have you ever wondered where on a computer is the operating system generally stored? The answer lies in the intricate dance between hardware and software components, particularly within ...
Laptops have become essential tools for work, entertainment, and communication, offering portability and functionality. However, with rising energy costs and growing environmental concerns, understanding a laptop’s power consumption is more important than ever. So, how many watts does a laptop use? The answer, unfortunately, isn’t straightforward. It depends on several ...
Screen recording has become an essential tool for various purposes, such as creating tutorials, capturing gameplay footage, recording online meetings, or sharing information with others. Fortunately, Dell laptops offer several built-in and external options for screen recording, catering to different needs and preferences. This guide will explore various methods on ...
A cracked or damaged laptop screen can be a frustrating experience, impacting productivity and enjoyment. Fortunately, laptop screen repair is a common service offered by various repair shops and technicians. However, the cost of fixing a laptop screen can vary significantly depending on several factors. This article delves into the ...
Gaming laptops represent a significant investment for passionate gamers, offering portability and powerful performance for immersive gaming experiences. However, a common concern among potential buyers is their lifespan. Unlike desktop PCs, which allow for easier component upgrades, gaming laptops have inherent limitations due to their compact and integrated design. This ...
The annual inventory report of New Zealand's greenhouse gas emissions has been released, showing that gross emissions have dropped for the third year in a row, to 78.4 million tons: All-told gross emissions have decreased by over 6 million tons since the Zero Carbon Act was passed in 2019. ...
Experiencing a locked computer can be frustrating, especially when you need access to your files and applications urgently. The methods to unlock your computer will vary depending on the specific situation and the type of lock you encounter. This guide will explore various scenarios and provide step-by-step instructions on how ...
While the world has largely transitioned to digital communication, faxing still holds relevance in certain industries and situations. Fortunately, gone are the days of bulky fax machines and dedicated phone lines. Today, you can easily send and receive faxes directly from your computer, offering a convenient and efficient way to ...
In our increasingly digital world, home computers have become essential tools for work, communication, entertainment, and more. However, this increased reliance on technology also exposes us to various cyber threats. Understanding these threats and taking proactive steps to protect your home computer is crucial for safeguarding your personal information, finances, ...
In the ever-evolving world of technology, server-based computing has emerged as a cornerstone of modern digital infrastructure. This article delves into the concept of server-based computing, exploring its various forms, benefits, challenges, and its impact on the way we work and interact with technology. Understanding Server-Based Computing: At its core, ...
The absolute brass neck of this guy.We want more medical doctors, not more spin doctors, Luxon was saying a couple of weeks ago, and now we’re told the guy has seven salaried adults on TikTok duty. Sorry, doing social media. The absolute brass neck of it. The irony that the ...
Buzz from the Beehive Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones relishes spatting and eagerly takes issue with environmentalists who criticise his enthusiasm for resource development. He relishes helping the fishing industry too. And so today, while the media are making much of the latest culling in the public service to ...
Having written, taught and worked for the US government on issues involving unconventional warfare and terrorism for 30-odd years, two things irritate me the most when the subject is discussed in public. The first is the Johnny-come-lately academics-turned-media commentators who … Continue reading → ...
Eric Crampton writes – Kainga Ora is the government’s house building agency. It’s been building a lot of social housing. Kainga Ora has its own (but independent) consenting authority, Consentium. It’s a neat idea. Rather than have to deal with building consents across each different territorial authority, Kainga Ora ...
Muriel Newman writes – The Coalition Government says it is moving with speed to deliver campaign promises and reverse the damage done by Labour. One of their key commitments is to “defend the principle that New Zealanders are equal before the law.” To achieve this, they have pledged they “will not advance ...
Chris Trotter writes – The absence of anything resembling a fightback from the public servants currently losing their jobs is interesting. State-sector workers’ collective fatalism in the face of Coalition cutbacks indicates a surprisingly broad acceptance of impermanence in the workplace. Fifty years ago, lay-offs in the thousands ...
Mariupol, on the Azov Sea coast, was one of the first cities to suffer almost complete destruction after the start of the Ukraine War started in late February 2022. We remember the scenes of absolute destruction of the houses and city structures. The deaths of innocent civilians – many of ...
Lindsay Mitchell writes – Ten years ago, I wrote the following in a Listener column: Every year around one in five new-born babies will be reliant on their caregivers benefit by Christmas. This pattern has persisted from at least 1993. For Maori the number jumps to over one in three. ...
Climate change is expected to generate more and more extreme events, delivering a sort of structural shock to inflation that central banks will have to react to as if they were short-term cyclical issues. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāMy pick of the six newsey things to know from Aotearoa’s ...
It’s a simple deal. We pay taxes in order to finance the social services we want and need. The carnage now occurring across the public sector though, is breaking that contract. Over 3,000 jobs have been lost so far. Many are in crucial areas like Education where the impact of ...
Hi,A friend had their 40th over the weekend and decided to theme it after Curb Your Enthusiasm fashion icon Susie Greene. Captured in my tiny kitchen before I left the house, I ending up evoking a mix of old lesbian and Hillary Clinton — both unintentional.Me vs Hillary ClintonIf you’re ...
This is a re-post from Andrew Dessler at the Climate Brink blogIn 2023, the Earth reached temperature levels unprecedented in modern times. Given that, it’s reasonable to ask: What’s going on? There’s been lots of discussions by scientists about whether this is just the normal progression of global warming or if something ...
The schools are on holiday and the sun is shining in the seaside village and all day long I have been seeing bunches of bikes; Mums, Dads, teens and toddlers chattering, laughing, happy, having a bloody great time together. Cheers, AT, for the bits of lane you’ve added lately around the ...
Today in our National-led authoritarian nightmare: Shane Jones thinks Ministers should be above the law: New Zealand First MP Shane Jones is accusing the Waitangi Tribunal of over-stepping its mandate by subpoenaing a minister for its urgent hearing on the Oranga Tamariki claim. The tribunal is looking into the ...
Bryce Edwards writes – Politicians across the political spectrum are implicated in the New Zealand media’s failing health. Either through neglect or incompetent interventions, successive governments have failed to regulate, foster, and allow a healthy Fourth Estate that can adequately hold politicians and the powerful to account. ...
Citizen Science writes – Last week saw two significant developments in the debate over the treatment of trans-identifying children and young people – the release in Britain of the final report of Dr Hilary Cass’s review into gender healthcare, and here in New Zealand, the news that the ...
One night while sleeping in my bed I had a beautiful dreamThat all the people of the world got together on the same wavelengthAnd began helping one anotherNow in this dream, universal love was the theme of the dayPeace and understanding and it happened this wayAfter such an eventful day ...
This is a guest post by Oscar Simms who is a housing activist, volunteer for the Coalition for More Homes, and was the Labour Party candidate for Auckland Central at the last election. ...
Turning what Labour called the “holiday highway” into a four-lane expressway from Auckland to Whangarei could bring at least an economic benefit of nearly two billion a year for Northland each year. And it could help bring an end to poverty in one of New Zealand’s most deprived regions. The ...
Tonight’s six-stack includes: launching his substack with a bunch of his previous documentaries, including this 1992 interview with Dame Whina Cooper. and here crew give climate activists plenty to do, including this call to submit against the Fast Track Approvals bill. writes brilliantly here on his substack ...
On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
You're in the mall when you hear it: some kind of popping sound in the distance, kids with fireworks, maybe. But then a moment of eerie stillness is followed by more of the fireworks sound and there’s also screaming and shrieking and now here come people running for their lives.Does ...
Karl du Fresne writes – There’s a crisis in the news media and the media are blaming it on everyone except themselves. Culpability is being deflected elsewhere – mainly to the hapless Minister of Communications, Melissa Lee, and the big social media platforms that are accused of hoovering ...
I don’t normally send out two newsletters in a day but I figured I’d say something about… the news. If two newsletters is a bit much then maybe just skip one, I don’t want to overload people. Alternatively if you’d be interested in sometimes receiving multiple, smaller updates from me, ...
Buzz from the Beehive David Seymour and Winston Peters today signalled that at least two ministers of the Crown might be in Wellington today. Seymour (as Associate Minister of Education) announced the removal of more red tape, this time to make it easier for new early learning services to be ...
Politicians across the political spectrum are implicated in the New Zealand media’s failing health. Either through neglect or incompetent interventions, successive governments have failed to regulate, foster, and allow a healthy Fourth Estate that can adequately hold politicians and the powerful to account. Our political system is suffering from the ...
David Farrar writes – The Broadcasting Standards Authority ruled: Comments by radio host Kate Hawkesby suggesting Māori and Pacific patients were being prioritised for surgery due to their ethnicity were misleading and discriminatory, the Broadcasting Standards Authority has found. It is a fact such patients are prioritised. ...
PRC and its proxies in Solomons have been preparing for these elections for a long time.A lot of money, effort and intelligence have gone into ensuring an outcome that won’t compromise Beijing’s plans. Cleo Paskall writes – On April 17th the Solomon Islands, a country of ...
Is speeding up the trip to and from Wellington airport by 12 minutes worth spending up more than $10 billion? Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The six news items that stood out to me in the last day to 8:26 am today are:The Lead: Transport Minister Simeon Brownannounced ...
You're a fraud, and you know itBut it's too good to throw it all awayAnyone would do the sameYou've got 'em goingAnd you're careful not to show itSometimes you even fool yourself a bitIt's like magicBut it's always been a smoke and mirrors gameAnyone would do the sameForty six billion ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections The June general election in Mexico could mark a turning point in ensuring that the country’s climate policies better reflect the desire of its citizens to address the climate crisis, with both leading presidential candidates expressing support for renewable energy. Mexico is the ...
2024, it feels, keeps presenting us with ever more challenges, ever more dismay.Do you give up yet? It seems to ask.No? How about this? Or this?How about this?When I say 2024 I really mean the state of humanity in 2024.Saturday night, we watched Civil War because that is one terrifying cliff we've ...
Buzz from the Beehive A pet project and governmental tunnel vision jump out from the latest batch of ministerial announcements. The government is keen to assure us of its concern for the wellbeing of our pets. It will be introducing pet bonds in a change to the Residential Tenancies Act ...
A recent report generated from a Growing Up in New Zealand (GUiNZ) survey of 1,224 rangatahi Māori aged 11-12 found: Cultural connectedness was associated with fewer depression symptoms, anxiety symptoms and better quality of life. That sounds cut and dry. But further into the report the following appears: Cultural connectedness is ...
David Farrar writes – The Herald reports: From the gory details of job-cuts news, you’d think the public service was being eviscerated. While the media’s view of the cuts is incomplete, it’s also true that departments have been leaking the particulars faster than a Wellington ...
Remember the good old days, back when New Zealand had a PM who could think and speak calmly and intelligently in whole sentences without blustering? Even while Iran’s drones and missiles were still being launched, Helen Clark was live on TVNZ expertly summing up the latest crisis in the Middle ...
Costello did not pass on analysis of the benefits of the smokefree reforms to Cabinet, emphasising instead the extra tax revenues of repealing them. Photo: Hagen Hopkins, Getty Images TL;DR: The six news items that stood out to me at 7:26 am today are:The Lead: Casey Costello never passed on ...
True loveYou're the one I'm dreaming ofYour heart fits me like a gloveAnd I'm gonna be true blueBaby, I love youI’ve written about the job cuts in our news media last week. The impact on individuals, and the loss to Aotearoa of voices covering our news from different angles.That by ...
While commentators, including former Prime Minister Helen Clark, are noting a subtle shift in New Zealand’s foreign policy, which now places more emphasis on the United States, many have missed a key element of the shift. What National said before the election is not what the government is doing now. ...
The Green Party has joined the call for public submissions on the fast-track legislation to be extended after the Ombudsman forced the Government to release the list of organisations invited to apply just hours before submissions close. ...
New Zealand’s good work at reducing climate emissions for three years in a row will be undone by the National government’s lack of ambition and scrapping programmes that were making a difference, Labour Party climate spokesperson Megan Woods said today. ...
More essential jobs could be on the chopping block, this time Ministry of Education staff on the school lunches team are set to find out whether they're in line to lose their jobs. ...
The Government is trying to bring in a law that will allow Ministers to cut corners and kill off native species, Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said. ...
Cancelling urgently needed new Cook Strait ferries and hiking the cost of public transport for many Kiwis so that National can announce the prospect of another tunnel for Wellington is not making good choices, Labour Transport Spokesperson Tangi Utikere said. ...
A laundry list of additional costs for Tāmaki Makarau Auckland shows the Minister for the city is not delivering for the people who live there, says Labour Auckland Issues spokesperson Shanan Halbert. ...
The Green Party has today launched a step-by-step guide to help New Zealanders make their voice heard on the Government’s democracy dodging and anti-environment fast track legislation. ...
The National Government’s proposed changes to the Residential Tenancies Act will mean tenants can be turfed from their homes by landlords with little notice, Labour housing spokesperson Kieran McAnulty said. ...
Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson is calling on all parties to support a common-sense change that’s great for the planet and great for consumers after her member’s bill was drawn from the ballot today. ...
A significant milestone has been reached in the fight to strike an anti-Pasifika and unfair law from the country’s books after Teanau Tuiono’s members’ bill passed its first reading. ...
New Zealand has today missed the opportunity to uphold the right to a clean, healthy, and sustainable environment, says James Shaw after his member’s bill was voted down in its first reading. ...
Today’s advice from the Climate Change Commission paints a sobering reality of the challenge we face in combating climate change, especially in light of recent Government policy announcements. ...
Minister for Disability Issues Penny Simmonds appears to have delayed a report back to Cabinet on the progress New Zealand is making against international obligations for disabled New Zealanders. ...
The Government’s newly announced review of methane emissions reduction targets hints at its desire to delay Aotearoa New Zealand’s urgent transition to a climate safe future, the Green Party said. ...
The Government must commit to the Maitai School building project for students with high and complex needs, to ensure disabled students from the top of the South Island have somewhere to learn. ...
Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey and his Government colleagues have made a meal of their mental health commitments, showing how flimsy their efforts to champion the issue truly are, says Labour Mental Health spokesperson Ingrid Leary. ...
Māori are yet to see anything from this Government except cuts, reversals and taking our people backwards, Māori Development spokesperson Willie Jackson said. ...
The Coalition Government’s refusal to commit to ongoing funding for social housing is seeing the sector pull back on developments and families watch their dreams of securing a home fade away, says Labour Housing spokesperson Kieran McAnulty. ...
Changes to minimum wage and benefit indexation means many New Zealanders will get less this year, as the Government gives a big tax break to landlords instead. ...
New Zealand is demonstrating its commitment to reducing global greenhouse emissions, and supporting clean energy transition in South East Asia, through a contribution of NZ$41 million (US$25 million) in climate finance to the Asian Development Bank (ADB)-led Energy Transition Mechanism (ETM). Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Climate Change Minister Simon Watts announced ...
The Government is today releasing a list of organisations who received letters about the Fast-track applications process, says RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop. “Recently Ministers and agencies have received a series of OIA requests for a list of organisations to whom I wrote with information on applying to have a ...
Attorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Wellington Barrister David Jonathan Boldt as a Judge of the High Court, and the Honourable Justice Matthew Palmer as a Judge of the Court of Appeal. Justice Boldt graduated with an LLB from Victoria University of Wellington in 1990, and also holds ...
Education Minister Erica Stanford will lead the New Zealand delegation at the 2024 International Summit on the Teaching Profession (ISTP) held in Singapore. The delegation includes representatives from the Post Primary Teachers’ Association (PPTA) Te Wehengarua and the New Zealand Educational Institute (NZEI) Te Riu Roa. The summit is co-hosted ...
A stopbank upgrade project in Tairawhiti partly funded by the Government has increased flood resilience for around 7000ha of residential and horticultural land so far, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones today attended a dawn service in Gisborne to mark the end of the first stage of the ...
Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters will represent the Government at Anzac Day commemorations on the Gallipoli Peninsula next week and engage with senior representatives of the Turkish government in Istanbul. “The Gallipoli campaign is a defining event in our history. It will be a privilege to share the occasion ...
Science, Innovation and Technology and Defence Minister Judith Collins will next week attend the OECD Science and Technology Ministerial conference in Paris and Anzac Day commemorations in Belgium. “Science, innovation and technology have a major role to play in rebuilding our economy and achieving better health, environmental and social outcomes ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The Prime Minister was accompanied by MP Paulo Garcia, the first Filipino to be elected to a legislature outside the Philippines. During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon and President Marcos Jr discussed opportunities to ...
The Government has announced that $20 million in funding will be made available to Westport to fund much needed flood protection around the town. This measure will significantly improve the resilience of the community, says Local Government Minister Simeon Brown. “The Westport community has already been allocated almost $3 million ...
The Government is proud to support the first ever Repco Supercars Championship event in Taupō as up to 70,000 motorsport fans attend the Taupō International Motorsport Park this weekend, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. “Anticipation for the ITM Taupō Super400 is huge, with tickets and accommodation selling out weeks ...
Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced an increase to the Rates Rebate Scheme, putting money back into the pockets of low-income homeowners. “The coalition Government is committed to bringing down the cost of living for New Zealanders. That includes targeted support for those Kiwis who are doing things tough, such ...
The Coalition Government is investing in a project to boost survival rates of New Zealand mussels and grow the industry, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones has announced. “This project seeks to increase the resilience of our mussels and significantly boost the sector’s productivity,” Mr Jones says. “The project - ...
Benefit figures released today underscore the importance of the Government’s plan to rebuild the economy and have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker Support, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “Benefit numbers are still significantly higher than when National was last in government, when there was about 70,000 fewer ...
The Government’s commitment to doubling New Zealand’s renewable energy capacity is backed by new data showing that clean energy has helped the country reach its lowest annual gross emissions since 1999, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. New Zealand’s latest Greenhouse Gas Inventory (1990-2022) published today, shows gross emissions fell ...
The Government is bringing the earthquake-prone building review forward, with work to start immediately, and extending the deadline for remediations by four years, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “Our Government is focused on rebuilding the economy. A key part of our plan is to cut red tape that ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and his Thai counterpart, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, have today agreed that New Zealand and the Kingdom of Thailand will upgrade the bilateral relationship to a Strategic Partnership by 2026. “New Zealand and Thailand have a lot to offer each other. We have a strong mutual desire to build ...
RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop and Transport Minister Simeon Brown have today announced the Coalition Government’s intention to extend port coastal permits for a further 20 years, providing port operators with certainty to continue their operations. “The introduction of the Resource Management Act in 1991 required ports to obtain coastal ...
Today’s announcement that inflation is down to 4 per cent is encouraging news for Kiwis, but there is more work to be done - underlining the importance of the Government’s plan to get the economy back on track, acting Finance Minister Chris Bishop says. “Inflation is now at 4 per ...
Refreshed health guidance released today will help parents and schools make informed decisions about whether their child needs to be in school, addressing one of the key issues affecting school attendance, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. In recent years, consistently across all school terms, short-term illness or medical reasons ...
Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones is streamlining high-level oceans management while maintaining a focus on supporting the sector’s role in the export-led recovery of the economy. “I am working to realise the untapped potential of our fishing and aquaculture sector. To achieve that we need to be smarter with ...
Associate Agriculture Minister Mark Patterson is speaking at the International Wool Textile Organisation Congress in Adelaide, promoting New Zealand wool, and outlining the coalition Government’s support for the revitalisation the sector. "New Zealand’s wool exports reached $400 million in the year to 30 June 2023, and the coalition Government ...
The Government is making legislative changes to make it easier for new early learning services to be established, and for existing services to operate, Associate Education Minister David Seymour says. The changes involve repealing the network approval provisions that apply when someone wants to establish a new early learning service, ...
Changes to the Resource Management Act will align consenting for coal mining to other forms of mining to reduce barriers that are holding back economic development, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The inconsistent treatment of coal mining compared with other extractive activities is burdensome red tape that fails to acknowledge ...
Trade, Agriculture and Forestry Minister Todd McClay has concluded productive discussions with ministerial counterparts in Beijing today, in support of the New Zealand-China trade and economic relationship. “My meeting with Commerce Minister Wang Wentao reaffirmed the complementary nature of the bilateral trade relationship, with our Free Trade Agreement at its ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon today paid tribute to Singapore’s outgoing Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. Meeting in Singapore today immediately before Prime Minister Lee announced he was stepping down, Prime Minister Luxon warmly acknowledged his counterpart’s almost twenty years as leader, and the enduring legacy he has left for Singapore and South East ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. While in Singapore as part of his visit to South East Asia this week, Prime Minister Luxon also met with Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam and will meet with Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong. During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has made further appointments to the Board of Antarctica New Zealand as part of a continued effort to ensure the Scott Base Redevelopment project is delivered in a cost-effective and efficient manner. The Minister has appointed Neville Harris as a new member of the Board. Mr ...
Finance Minister Nicola Willis will travel to the United States on Tuesday to attend a meeting of the Five Finance Ministers group, with counterparts from Australia, the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. “I am looking forward to meeting with our Five Finance partners on how we can work ...
The coalition Government has today announced purrfect and pawsitive changes to the Residential Tenancies Act to give tenants with pets greater choice when looking for a rental property, says Housing Minister Chris Bishop. “Pets are important members of many Kiwi families. It’s estimated that around 64 per cent of New ...
State Highway 1 (SH1) through Wellington City is heavily congested at peak times and while planning continues on the duplicate Mt Victoria Tunnel and Basin Reserve project, the Government has also asked NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) to consider and provide advice on a Long Tunnel option, Transport Minister Simeon Brown ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Foreign Minister Winston Peters have condemned Iran’s shocking and illegal strikes against Israel. “These attacks are a major challenge to peace and stability in a region already under enormous pressure," Mr Luxon says. "We are deeply concerned that miscalculation on any side could ...
Hundreds of people in little over a week have turned out in Northland to hear Regional Development Minister Shane Jones speak about plans for boosting the regional economy through infrastructure. About 200 people from the infrastructure and associated sectors attended an event headlined by Mr Jones in Whangarei today. Last ...
Health Minister Dr Shane Reti has today thanked outgoing Health New Zealand – Te Whatu Ora Chair Dame Karen Poutasi for her service on the Board. “Dame Karen tendered her resignation as Chair and as a member of the Board today,” says Dr Reti. “I have asked her to ...
The NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) has signalled their proposed delivery approach for the Government’s 15 Roads of National Significance (RoNS), with the release of the State Highway Investment Proposal (SHIP) today, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Boosting economic growth and productivity is a key part of the Government’s plan to ...
New Zealand is renewing its connections with a world facing urgent challenges by pursuing an active, energetic foreign policy, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “Our country faces the most unstable global environment in decades,” Mr Peters says at the conclusion of two weeks of engagements in Egypt, Europe and the United States. “We cannot afford to sit back in splendid ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has announced the Australian Governor-General, His Excellency General The Honourable David Hurley and his wife Her Excellency Mrs Linda Hurley, will make a State visit to New Zealand from Tuesday 16 April to Thursday 18 April. The visit reciprocates the State visit of former Governor-General Dame Patsy Reddy ...
Associate Health Minister David Seymour has announced that Medsafe has approved 11 cold and flu medicines containing pseudoephedrine. Pharmaceutical suppliers have indicated they may be able to supply the first products in June. “This is much earlier than the original expectation of medicines being available by 2025. The Government recognised ...
New Zealand and the United States have recommitted to their strategic partnership in Washington DC today, pledging to work ever more closely together in support of shared values and interests, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “The strategic environment that New Zealand and the United States face is considerably more ...
April 11, 2024 Joint Declaration by United States Secretary of State the Honorable Antony J. Blinken and New Zealand Minister of Foreign Affairs the Right Honourable Winston Peters We met today in Washington, D.C. to recommit to the historic partnership between our two countries and the principles that underpin it—rule ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced further New Zealand cooperation with the United States in the Pacific Islands region through $16.4 million in funding for initiatives in digital connectivity and oceans and fisheries research. “New Zealand can achieve more in the Pacific if we work together more urgently and ...
Kia Ora Gaza A passionate haka reverberated through Auckland International Airport as a medical team of three New Zealand doctors received an emotional farewell from a big crowd of supporters before flying to Turkey to join the international Freedom Flotilla to Gaza. The doctors, who left Auckland yesterday, hope to ...
With submissions closing today, Macassey-Pickard says groups around the country have been supporting a huge range of people to make their submissions. ...
Our response to the new legislation is informed by targeted conversations with practitioners working in the system and through an implementation lens. ...
The new ‘Fast-track Approvals Bill’ would give just three Ministers the power to approve or deny development projects. They would avoid the usual checks and balances that are in place to protect rivers, land, the ocean, and communities. ...
COMMENTARY:By Eugene Doyle Helen Clark, how I miss you. The former New Zealand Prime Minister — the safest pair of hands this country has had in living memory — gave a masterclass on the importance of maintaining an independent foreign policy when she spoke at an AUKUS symposium held ...
The government's released the list of organisations provided with information on how to apply - just hours before public submissions on the bill close. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Milton Speer, Visiting Fellow, School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University of Technology Sydney Before climate change really got going, eastern Australia’s flash floods tended to concentrate on our coastal regions, east of the Great Dividing Range. But that’s changing. Now ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Elizabeth Finkel, Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow, La Trobe University Sia Duff / South Australian Museum In February, the South Australian Museum “re-imagined” itself. In the face of rising costs and inadequate government funds, CEO David Gaimster, who took the reins last June, declared ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alan Pearce, Professor, School of Allied Heath, Human Services & Sport, La Trobe University, La Trobe University This week, Collingwood AFL player Nathan Murphy announced his retirement, brought on by his concussion history and ongoing issues. The 24-year-old’s seemingly sudden retirement, ...
The Mental Health Foundation provides support and resources for those facing the loss of their job, so it’s wrong in the very week the Government adds another 1000 jobs to its tally of cuts, that this is happening. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexander Howard, Senior Lecturer, Discipline of English and Writing, University of Sydney Daniel Boud/Sydney Theatre Company Decay, terror, revulsion. These are three of the central themes of Thomas Bernhard’s rarely performed play The President. The Austrian is one of the greatest ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ye In (Jane) Hwang, Postdoctoral Research Associate at School of Population Health, UNSW Sydney Shutterstock You’d be hard pressed to find any aspect of daily life that doesn’t require some form of digital literacy. We need only to look back ten ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon says threats by ministers Shane Jones and David Seymour to reform or close down the Waitangi Tribunal were “ill-considered”, as legal experts say the ministers may have breached Cabinet Manual conventions. “I think those comments are ill-considered and we expect all ministers to actually exercise good ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rob Newton, Professor of Exercise Medicine, Edith Cowan University Pexels/RDNE stock project You’re not in your 20s or 30s anymore and you know regular health checks are important. So you go to your GP. During the appointment they measure your waist. ...
A new poem by Evangeline Riddiford Graham. Mitochondrial Problem I. It was long drive to Kansas for the man and his dog but you have to understand he said She doesn’t fly. Which calls to mind not carsick shitting barking or whining but a dog who chooses not to as ...
The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington.AUCKLAND1 Hemingway’s Goblet by Dermot Ross (Mary Egan Publishing, $38)Hot off the press, this debut ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Laura Wajnryb McDonald, PhD candidate in Criminology, University of Sydney Less than 24 hours after Ashlee Good was murdered in Bondi Junction, her family released a statement requesting the media take down photographs they had reproduced of Ashlee and her family without ...
Chief executive Shaun Robinson said it has not had any government funding cut, but government-funded contracts have not kept pace with rising costs. ...
The Ministry of Health has delayed the release of its evidence brief on the safety, reversibility and mental health and wellbeing outcomes for puberty blockers. While we wait, Julia de Bres speaks to those with firsthand experience. Best practice gender-affirming healthcare is based on trans people’s self-determination and agency. The ...
Barcelona’s city streets have gone from traffic-clogged to pedestrian-friendly. How? Superblocks. Ellen Rykers explains. This is an excerpt from our weekly environmental newsletter Future Proof. Sign up here. Last week I read a great interview with renowned urbanist Janette Sadik-Khan by The Spinoff’s Wellington editor Joel MacManus: “You can reimagine streets, ...
Student groups ‘Climate Action VUW’, Schools Strike 4 Climate and VUWSA will be on the street in Wellington today, the last day for submissions on the Fast-track Approvals Bill, with a message that the fight against the Government’s ‘War on ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sofia Ammassari, Research Fellow, Griffith University Since 2014, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity has grown exponentially – and so has the formidable organisational machine of his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). These two factors will be key to delivering the BJP a ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brendon Hyndman, Associate Professor of Education (Adjunct) & Senior Manager (BCE), Charles Sturt University During COVID almost all Australian students and their families experienced online learning. But while schools have long since gone back to in-person teaching, online learning has not gone ...
Yes, they’re better for the environment. No, that’s not a good enough reason for me to use them. Once every 26 days or so, my period arrives, and if struck by an act of God, I am caught red-crotched without products. How, after 17 years of this, do I still ...
“It will cause significant harm to our environment and communities. It is completely at odds with New Zealanders’ relationship with nature and our need for a low-carbon, sustainable economic future." ...
The Chair of the National Maori Authority, Matthew Tukaki, has warned a Parliamentary Select Committee that fast-tracking legislation is a perilous practice that undermines the core tenets of democracy, transparency, and accountability. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tim Tenbensel, Associate Professor, Health Policy, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau Getty Images Since coming into power, the coalition government has adopted a simple but shrewd see-how-fast-we-can-move political strategy. However, in the health sector this need for speed entails ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anastasia Hronis, Clinical Psychologist, University of Technology Sydney Darya Sannikova/Pexels Whether you’re watching TV, attending a footy game, or eating a meal at your local pub, gambling is hard to escape. Although the rise of gambling is not unique to Australia, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mark Wong, Forrest Fellow, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Western Australia Have you ever wondered if there are more insects out at night than during the day? We set out to answer this question by combing through the scientific ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Carol T Kulik, Research Professor, University of South Australia IR Stone/Shutterstock In Australia, it’s not the done thing to know – let alone ask – what our colleagues are paid. Yet, it’s easy to see how pay transparency can make pay ...
The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) is sounding a warning to migrants, that running foul of the law may see them leaving the country prematurely. ...
The government’s plan to get 50,000 people off jobseeker support by 2030 has had a rocky start, writes Catherine McGregor in this excerpt from The Bulletin, The Spinoff’s morning news round-up. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here. Beneficiary numbers are up – and so are ...
Raglan Roast is a staple of Wellington coffee culture. But with five branches across the capital, which one is the best? I am a die-hard Raglan Roast fan. It’s consistently the most affordable cafe in Wellington, and one of the only places you can get a coffee after 3pm. So, ...
Residents of University of Auckland halls are being urged to withhold their accommodation fees from May 1, in a bid to force the university to take student concerns over rent hikes seriously.The University of Auckland is facing a strike from students over the cost of on-campus accommodation. The Students ...
New Zealand and the Philippines have signed a new maritime security agreement and stated their concerns over activity in the South China Sea, as Chinese vessels continue to flout international law. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Philippines President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos committed to signing a Mutual Logistics Supporting Arrangement by ...
The thousands of government “back-office” job cuts are causing widespread pain in the capital city. In today’s episode of The Detail, we speak to three journalists and a think tank researcher, looking at the larger picture around the cuts and what effect it will have on Wellington, a city that’s ...
Opinion: The famed American architect and urban designer Daniel Burnham once said, “Make no little plans. They have no magic to stir men’s blood!” Burnham wouldn’t have been referring to the transport plans in Aotearoa New Zealand over the past five years; projects so big they hadn’t the credibility to ...
Loading…(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){var ql=document.querySelectorAll('A[quiz],DIV[quiz],A[data-quiz],DIV[data-quiz]'); if(ql){if(ql.length){for(var k=0;k<ql.length;k++){ql[k].id='quiz-embed-'+k;ql[k].href="javascript:var i=document.getElementById('quiz-embed-"+k+"');try{qz.startQuiz(i)}catch(e){i.start=1;i.style.cursor='wait';i.style.opacity='0.5'};void(0);"}}};i['QP']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){(i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)})(window,document,'script','https://take.quiz-maker.com/3012/CDN/quiz-embed-v1.js','qp'); Got a good quiz question?Send Newsroom your questions. The post Newsroom daily quiz, Friday 19 April appeared first on Newsroom. ...
Opinion: With maths understanding at 42 percent for Year 8 students, there’s no doubt something has to be done. But how? The post Financial literacy should be on all of us appeared first on Newsroom. ...
Hineaupounamu ‘Missy’ Nuku has been scaling mountains in Canada for her college basketball team, the Lakeland Rustlers. Alberta is currently home for the 20-year-old point guard, who is in her first year of a scholarship at Lakeland College, where she is studying for a business degree. She has certainly made ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra When ASIO boss Mike Burgess delivered his annual threat assessment earlier this year, he stressed the rising danger posed by espionage and foreign interference. “In 2024, threats to our way of life have surpassed ...
The Tribunal had called on Minister for Children Karen Chhour to provide evidence at an urgent inquiry into the repeal of Section 7AA of the Oranga Tamariki Act. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By T.J. Thomson, Senior Lecturer in Visual Communication & Digital Media, RMIT University Midjourney image by T.J. Thomson As more than half of Australian office workers report using generative artificial intelligence (AI) for work, we’re starting to see this technology affect every ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lisa Nicole Sharwood, Injury epidemiologist | Expert Witness, UNSW Sydney Sergey Novikov/Shutterstock Injuries are the leading cause of disability and death among Australian children and adolescents. At least a quarter of all emergency department presentations during childhood are injury-related. Injuries can ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Di Winkler, Adjunct Associate Professor, Living with Disability Research Centre, La Trobe University Shutterstock/Ground PictureMany Australians with disability feel on the edge of a precipice right now. Recommendations from the disability royal commission and the NDIS review were released late ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Salman Shooshtarian, Senior Lecturer, School of Property, Construction and Project Management, RMIT University Salman Shooshtarian Asbestos has been found in mulch used for playgrounds, schools, parks and gardens across Sydney and Melbourne. Local communities naturally fear for the health of their ...
Family First says that the latest abortion statistics make grim and upsetting reading, with a 25% increase in abortions since the decriminalisation of abortion in March 2020. According to an Official Information Act request received by Right to Life ...
Ipsos New Zealand's inaugural participation in a global study on populism reveals a pervasive sense of societal and economic decline among New Zealanders. MORE DETAILS AND FULL REPORT HERE Ipsos New Zealand's inaugural participation in a global study ...
Interesting new poll: http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/9332786/Poll-a-major-blow-to-Labour
Personally, I struggle to believe National could get more than the 47.3% it won in 2011. Governments tend to lose votes over time. Having said that, National won only 44.9% in 2008 so John Key has already broken the rule once.
Umm, so what was the polling from Fairfax just before the 2011 election?
http://curiablog.wordpress.com/2011/11/23/fairfax-research-international-poll-23-november-2011/
Oh yeah Fairfax had National at 54%. They got 47%. So they had about a 7% drop in how many days? Fluke?
So lets look at 2008?
http://curiablog.wordpress.com/2008/11/07/fairfax-poll-november-2008/
National at 49% – but in the election they got 45%! 4% of their vote just disappeared
Basically the Fairfax poll has always massively overstated the National potential to win votes. I guess that is why you cling to it like a child wrapping themselves around their comfort blankie…
BBQ season in Wellington Central me thinks…
Well, exactly. The polls always seem to overstate National’s support. Although you are not comparing apples with apples. This poll was by Ipsos, the 2011 one was by Research International and the 2005 one by Nielson.
See my reply to Andrew
But you have just successfully made the case for ignoring Fairfax polls.
That three different companies have consistently managed to follow practices that massively overstate Nationals support tends to indicate that there may be a systematic bias from that source? It is a small sample but it certainly does indicate that to me…
It’s not just Fairfax though. All the main polls (Herald, Fairfax, TVNZ, TV3) have tended to overstate National’s support. It’s as if their sampling has some sort of inbuilt bias against the smaller parties. One thing’s for sure though the latest Roy Morgan with Nats on 41.5% (and no chance of forming a majority) and this Fairfax poll with Nats on 50% can’t both be right.
Something to keep in mind when making that comparison, is that pre-election poll was carried out by a different polling company. Ipsos started polling for Fairfax after the election.
I know. But if you look back in the record for fairfax polls you’ll find at least one other company doing their polls that I’m aware of. It never seems to make much difference to the overall outcome that the “Fairfax poll” gets. They massively overstate the right to suspicious extent. I suspect that the polling companies that Fairfax uses all operate by the maxim that the customer is always right(ish).
That plus their sporadic schedule means that they are essentially useless when divining the tea leaves for election results. Probably why Matthew dribbles on about them.
I prefer the much more frequent polling by Roy Morgan that isn’t done for any organisation with a hidden agenda. Despite the usual statistical variation and sampling biases, it is possible to see actual trends in that rather than the need for interesting headlines.
Good point about poll frequency.
I don’t think though that any polling company would let a client influence the results in any way, shape, or form. The interpretation maybe, but not the results themselves. If polling company did, they could be thrown out of the MRSNZ.
Given the expectation for how well Labour/Greens are doing at the moment, I suspect the people at Fairfax were a surprised by the result as people here are.
Excuse my typos. I’m not wearing my glasses and I’m using my iPad. A bad combination.
That is the daft thing. I wasn’t surprised. If you think of this thing narratively rather than statistically, then a completely different poll result that can spun as a reversal is one of those twists that makes for a good story.
All that has to be done is to pick a technique that may follow statistical practices, but does not accurately reflect the voting population.
For instance my favourite example is the way that using listed land line polling systematically overstates the right. Parts of Auckland have been down at or lower than 50% listed-land-lines per household against the electoral roll for nearly a decade. Whereas in other parts of the country are closer to 90% listed-land-line. Moreover apart from the urban/provincials split, in every region the poorer voters and the younger voters with a landline are distinctly more likely to not have a accessible land-line.
So guess what is the sampling technique that Fairfax pays for?
That’s some interesting data you cite there. Do you have a source?
I’m pretty sure none of the main polling companies survey only listed landlines. They use RDD, so every landline is given a chance of selection, including the unlisted ones.
Sampling from the electoral roll would be a silly idea for a phone survey, coz you would have to match with only listed numbers. That’s pretty daft for a political poll, as lists are biased in favour of home and vehicle owners.
Ah no. RDD is a bit of a myth. Even if you had the switch ranges, the number system gaps between exchanges mean that it is unlikely to be random. Without them in a 8 digit system covering less than 2 million households, your probabilities are low to even find a open number.
But more basically, try and find a person with unlisted numbers who has been called.
The electoral roll is the population that is attempted to be sampled in a political poll.
I think you should look into RDD a bit more. You simply ping them to test if they are connected.
As I said, matching the electoral roll with published phone listings results in a bias toward home and vehicle owners, and an extremely small response rate if you factor in all the people you can’t match.
RDD ain’t no myth. I use it myself, and we update it to cover all known number ranges.
Ha! I wrote this on my cell, but it didn’t show up initially, which is why there is a similar and better expressed post below. Apologies 🙂
This unlisted number has never been called.
I’d be extremely pissed off if I did get a call, with the caller likely to be called every bastard under the sun.
The whole point of having an unlisted number is to be selective in who you want to give your number to.
I have an unlisted number, and I have been called.
Did you ask how they got your number?
I hope no offence is taken by this, but I’m afraid you misunderstand the process of generating RDD sample.
Random numbers are generated within known number ranges. It’s not hard to work out the known number ranges from published listings. The random numbers are then pinged to find the connected numbers. There is a whole lot more to the process too, like selecting in proportion to the size of each area while factoring in the connection rate.
I use RDD for surveys I design, so I know exactly how it’s done, and how it shown be done properly. For my surveys we call people with unlisted numbers all the time.
Using the electoral roll for telephone samples requires tele-matching against published listings. These listings are biased in favour of home and vehicle owners, and they exclude unlisted numbers. Also, once you factor in all the people you can’t match, either because they have no landline, they have moved, or their number is unlisted, then the response rate for this type of survey is *extremely* low.
I can guarantee you that RDD sampling isn’t a myth. Just send me an email if you’d like to know more about it.
So RDD based sampling for political polls captures persons not on the electoral roll as well?
If RDD sampling is reasonably systematically unbiased, how else can you explain National’s support being fairly consistently over-estimated by the polls?
Well there are many potential sources of polling error, other than sampling error.
The polls mostly screen for eligible voters, as far as I’m aware.
I explain what I mean about polling error on my blog Tat Loo.
http://grumpollie.wordpress.com/2013/03/24/error-in-polls-and-surveys-2/
Cheers.
you can f*ck off
A case in point was John Armstrong in a column a month or so ago,(sorry i havn’t got a link for it), openly admitted that He ‘thought’ the Reid-poll skewed it’s results by asking respondents a series of leading questions designed specifically to have respondents favor one party over another…
If it’s true that Armstrong said that, then I believe he’s wrong.
The polling code, which is soon to be ratified by the MRSNZ, requires the principal voting question to be asked early in the interview. The person who runs the Reid poll was involved in putting the code together. I know him, and I don’t believe he would do this.
Andrew, i like naive people, you know the person involved in putting the Reid-poll together, explains your explanations then doesn’t it, care to explain what connection you have to these polling organizations…
Well I’ve worked in the research industry for ten years. I’m also a Labour Party supporter – is it still okay that I post here?
Both your assertions are to say the least questionable without the addition of the magic stuff that makes the pie taste sweet, ‘Proof’,
By ‘research’ are you alluding to the particular branch of alchemy which produces political polls???,
i do not know whether the question you ask is directed at me personally as i have no say what-so-ever in who comments here at the Standard, but, as an indicative signpost i usually distrust those who’s writing tends to portray them in a light of a somewhat different hue than the musings of your average Labour Party supporter,
In other words suit yourself an examination of a continued commentary from you would in effect show us all where your true political allegiances should or do lie….
really bad 12 ? (do you contemplate before you press ‘enter.?)
the answer to “Andrew” – try harder
Ghostrider, for a negative comment directed at me it contains not enough information to give you a full reply so i will just resort to yes dickhead i do…
my bad 12
Maybe the answer is a lot simpler – bully tactics, long practiced at school level and beyond. If you can convince a many of the validity of a few you can win the argument. Publish that party xy is the top dog and bob is your uncle. All you need is some gullible folk and unveiled threat of doom.
Participation in the political process would demand some interest in the community and nation at large. Look around you and be honest. My experience is that if I just make an innocent comment in my work canteen such as:” it will be difficult for west coasters to find a job”, blank stares is all I get. I don’t bother with conversation about the social/political life really, there is no vigorous thought process out there and I don’t want to provoke some banjo playing. Best to stick to the weather, family, sport and hmmmm…. food perhaps is another one.
This is why such pols become self fulfilling prophecies.
some MOFO truth to that!
Dreaming
Seems to me they could have headlined that article “Labour up 2 percent since leadership change”.
I don’t have any trouble believing that the poll has National able or nearly able to form a government. There are an awful lot of people who honestly think the opinions expressed on Whaleoil and Kiwiblog are rational.
That is what makes National the largest party. They have been consolidating the nuts over the last decade as the other conservative parties die from voter starvation. But even with the 800k non-vote, they have pretty well hit the limits of how much the right accretion in the upcoming election.
That lack of accretion is the underlying reason for the SOE asset sales. They were hoping to widen the base of shareholding voters to increase their pool of voters.
well, they are fooked now.
So Matthew what do you think National should do about Slater? Looks like his promised expose on Brown has not occurred …
I feel like even Len can’t move on. He’s cancelled events. I think he still has to be worried.”
Is this shorthand from her, she knows more then she is letting on?
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/9332912/Chuang-feels-much-better-now
Fuckin Bunny Boiler
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ecWhXP2jM28
you may retire gracefully now
It was “Pete” on Whaleoil who said there would be new information over the long weekend, not Cameron Slater. See http://www.whaleoil.co.nz/2013/10/friday-general-debate-8/#axzz2ix3dMo6J
I don’t know who Pete is.
Pete is Cameron Slater.
Probably a waste of time but I’ll bite: Got any proof or just making it up again?
speaking of “wastes of time”…
Just have a look at what gets posted as “Pete”, and pay particular attention to the regular features. Draw your own conclusions.
Of course it’s possible that Slater actually does have a staff of several different people posting on his site under various names, but you’d have to ask why they keep sharing their logins with each other.
matthew hooten..how can it be..?
..that you claim..
..to have never eaten..
.. a frozen pea..?
..we’ve heard you’ve said:..’they’re not for the likes of me!..
..it’s my delicate palate..you see..’
..(and should we call you..
.. ‘new zealands’ marie’..?..)
..and what a great campaign/election slogan (in epsom) that would be..
“frozen peas..they’re not for the likes of you and me..!
..vote hooten/act..!..”
phillip ure..
phillip ure …..lol +1
What are you talking about. I had frozen peas for dinner last night. And paid GST on them.
@ hooten..
..from yrslf..
..on nat-rad..
..(no memory of it..?..)
..and w.t.f. has ‘paying gst’ got to do with anything..?
..is it part of yr ‘tax is theft’/fuck-the-poor!/rand-ite worldview..?
..a great election slogan tho’..
..eh..?
..you’d be ‘talking to yr people’..eh..?
..they would understand..eh..?
..and my search of whoar under ‘frozen peas’..
..threw this one up..
http://whoar.co.nz/2013/tandem-lies-hooton-and-farrar-sing-a-song-of-simple-men/
..enjoy..!
..phillip ure..
interesting when one has one’s own site
Keep clutching at them straws Hooten, i thought even you wouldn’t be so stupid as to keep trying to flog the ‘Governing alone’ ghost back to life,
It’s good to see such desperation across the whole written media spectrum with the Herald writers now producing only advertorials extolling the National Government this should give them a little more oxygen…
a clear marker of the widespread panic in the right..
..(aside from the corporate-media editors desperately searching for little shards of rightwing-light..anywhere they can..funny to watch..that one..eh..?..)
..is that they are viewing (E.T.-impersonator/christian-fundamentalist in neo-con-drag) colin craig..
as some kinda ‘solution’..
..whoar..!
..eh..?
..have they even read his policies/beliefs..?
..’woof!-woof!’..
..desperate times..indeed..!
..phillip ure..
It’s easy tho to see why clutching at the very thin straws other’s have plucked from the bale is more to Hootens liking than the political prediction site which He now claims,(since it started producing results He don’t like), to not have anything to do with,
From ipredict this morning,
Prime Minister after 2014 election, Cunliffe 53.3%, Slippery(Key) 48%,
Finance Minister after 2014 election, Parker 50%, English 37.8%,
Party Vote 2014 election, National 40.1%, Governing alone, nah laughably Governing non-one…
Mind you the ‘Loons’ over at ipredict don’t get into trying to ‘lead’ the voters round by the nose with the simpletons ‘National can Govern alone polls’ of the boring old mass media,
The ‘Loons’ over at the other place like to plumb the depths of their affliction by producing suggestive ‘predictions’ of a National/NZFirst/Conservative grand coalition,
NZ First and the Conservatives with 4.7% of the Party vote each, come in ‘spinner’…
As bad12 alludes to, I no longer do the PR for iPredict, but I still think it provides far better indications of future events, including elections, than polls. As bad12 points out, it says Labour is favoured and that its probability of leading the next govt has increased since the change of leader.
“Look at me! I’m relevant! I’m a serious political commentator that people take seriously!”
Christ Hoots, could you be any less obvious?
Very Good, carry on.
”Come in spinner” and lo and behold He does, spinning ever faster Hooten now flips the coin and speaks from the other side of His mouth,
The Fairfax poll gives the next election to National and the ipredict gives the next election to Labour/Green and you believe the both of them Hooten???,
Things must get really interesting inside your head…
😎
Quick, look over there…
If it aint beneficiaries, its asylum seekers (today) to use as a distraction. Because John Banks ‘has nothing to fear and nothing to hide’.
Good Work Audrey, nothing like keeping the embers of stupidity warm.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11147302
Hoots should be fitted with a tachometer.
a flow-meter
Bejeezus: 21.9% of those polled “don’t know or don’t intend to vote”
One fifth!
Great they actually published the “Dont Know” number, for once.
And that’s why Labour should can any ideas about converting “centre” votes from National. There are far more votes to be had winning the disengaged, and you don’t have to be a sellout to do it.
+111
That applies to all the left parties. Leave the centre to UF and NZ1st with National out on the far right.
+ 1 True but I doubt they will take that advice.
Love, and Rockets Esperanza
In her opinion piece, Tracy Watkins says “That is the shifting ground beneath undecided voters. Among the 12.5 per cent of voters we questioned, 29.7 per cent lean toward Labour, while 22.2 per cent lean to National.”
So assuming that 12.5% = the undecided voters, that still leaves 9.4% of people not intending to vote. 9% is still a lot, but I think that would be a better turnout than last election which is something (assuming all undecided voters vote).
It’s adorable how you say “Interesting new poll” as though you’re not pushing a very specific narrative by posting it. No no, this is just Matthew Hooton, naive, unbiased commenter, linking to something he thinks will be of interest to his fellow Standard commenters, honest, pay no attention to the rightwing spin behind the curtain. 🙄
More of Hootens Horseshit. He spouts it here, he spouts it there, he spouts it everywhere, FFS Hooten. The only ones that believe this crap, are you, BB, and the Knuckle dragger. The rest of us are waiting or the REAL poll. From Morgans.
lou reed has died..
(..shit..!..)
..and vale..!
phillip ure..
My last comment went into moderation.
Will try again:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vMZp2IXWl7U
Ahhh time to remember some great music.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LrMLt9bMd_I
a knee before you doc.
RIP Lou
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qFLw26BjDZs
well, if one can ‘master’ H, and ‘master’ ‘A’, then one is on the Way. slowly, slowly, makes progress.
[deleted]
[lprent:I see you haven’t lost your ability to be outright stupid is still intacft. The question is if I want to have the pointless abuse it generates between here and next years election? ]
You are all class BB. Phillip marks the passing of one of the most important musicians of the last 50 years and you abuse him …
Just asked a fair question Micky.
By the way, not good poll ratings for your man is it. The ABC sect will be very encouraged.
As for Lou Reed, highly over rated.
Yeah, the squares were always frightened by Lou. I think it was the honesty; he lived his own life and never tried to live someone else’s.
Not only did Lou frighten the squares but he also went over the heads of the morans.
bruv misses out on both counts.
Bruv’s just another Jim Jim, felix. And we know Lou really didn’t care about them, eh?
😀
Hey, ease off the Irish. There’s nothing wrong with Morans.
yeah..i thought felix was a bit harsh on the morans there..too..
..interesting story about the morans..
..the ones that came to nz..
..dropped the ‘ns’ from their name..
..eh..?
..phillip ure..
Not only did Lou frighten the squares but he also went over the heads of the morans.
I take it the Morans were a particularly stupid family?
http://tucsoncitizen.com/baja-democrats/files/2012/08/moran-1.jpg
And yet when people who review and produce music for a living rate artists and albums across decades and genres Lou features twice (berlin and transformer) and the velevet underground 3 times.
So between them and the punters he appears universally overated, I guess we cant all have your refined tastes BB.
I prefer to pay attention to Brian Eno rather than BB – and not just on music:
Yep you can trace punk music to the stuff he was doing 10 years before …
We are at that point where alot of the ground breaking artists of the 60-80’s are passing on. Bowie is heading toward 70 and a decade or so of cocaine abuse will probably catch him also.
Just watched sorcese’s excellent doco on George harrison, well worth a look.
eno is a legend with an intellect most artists would kill for.
“..and a decade or so of cocaine abuse will probably catch him also..”
um..!..a bit of a fact-check here..a decade of heavy abuse of alcohol..
..will permanently fuck you more than a decade of coke..
..and funnily enough..
..i found cocaine one of the easiest drugs to kick..
..i just decided to stop..that i had had enough to know all i needed to know..
..and that was it..
..no major physical/mental withdrawals etc as you get from alcohol/heroin/cigs/barbiturates etc..
..and he might get struck by lightening..
..but i can’t see his past coke-habit directly contributing to his eventual dropping off of the twig..
…eh..?
..phillip ure..
Who can say for sure but stressing up your system isnt good in any form over a long period and Bowie has already had heart issues.
ongoing poverty ‘stresses’ more than cocaine use..
..that i can say ‘for sure’..
..and of course..the poor die younger..
..phillip ure..
or, die for…
Big Bruv writes – ‘As for Lou Reed, highly over rated.’
By who? You? Who are you to state such a vacuous thing on the day he died? Fuck Off The Planet you Dick.
No, and Yes
Gutted. Whenever I pick up a guitar, the first song I play is inevitably one of Lou’s.
+1 🙁
R.I.P. Lou Reed.
.
imitations
Time to mourn the passing of one of the best muso’s of the late 20th Century. May he rest in Peace.
A-Men
Hard to believe poll really. The fact of the matter is that polls and politics are full of professional liars and manipulators so the voter has little chance to make genuine choices anymore and the fact of the matter is they havent since the rise and dominance of polls and professional liars over the last few years.
I find all polls distasteful and unnecessary. Deliberately operating to tell people what to think.
lets trial having no polls for 3 years. The fact of the matter is that Life wont decline for anyone but the professional liars and pollsters.
I propose that everytime the professional liars come up with a new bullshit word strategy that all parties and people start using it liberally to neutralise it.
One poll with a shift within margin of error, is not much of an indicator on its own.
If Nationals internal polling was indicating that Key was really going to beat his 2011 result… Hooten wouldn’t be working early on Labour Day.
The problem for Key is that despite the media bullshit, Key only won the last election by 45,000 votes. Maybe less. He has no margin of safety to lose.
Nonetheless, the point is made: Labour and the Greens have to play a sharp game over the next 12 months, National is going to Fight back hard. They’re not just going to walk away in 2014.
One poll and you perform like a seal.
SHIT, would be that word Tracey
Xox
Firstly. Polls are unnecessary, distracting and manipulative.
Second. No surprise there, they are right leaning and publicise a right wing view.
Third. This tactic was successful for the Right wing at the last election, as evidenced by the low voter turnout, which clearly indicated disengagement from the democratic process.
Russell Brand has a valid point. Voting for the corporate backed
current democratic process is failing. USA, GB, France, Italy, Spain, Greece, Ireland etc etc. Why don’t we try something new called Democracy. Cf corporate crazy.. Dumocrupcy!
“Why don’t” you find another political blog to share your acumen with!
Agres phil. Shooten up is here trumpetting it cos he knows polls work like other advertising.
funny how any crusade to ban polls gets no support from most pollies or media. Polling us a form of pimping
Forest and Bird,
Any truth in the rumour that forest and bird are buying shares in Bathurst Resources to try to regain some of the money they have thrown away on frivolous court challenges ???
[lprent: seems unlikely. Changed an unlinked attempt to create a rumour to an appropriate color. Next time you try it, you disappear for a while. ]
wotta dick!
In the new poll, 1/5th of voters hadn’t made up their minds yet, and most of those undecided voters were leaning towards Labour. Shows how much Labour needs to increase voter turnout.
Is another Roy Morgan poll coming out soon? Seems we are due for one.
And I agree with some of the above sentiment about opinion polls. They should be banned during campaign season. They just encourage people to either vote for the winner (bandwagon effect), or vote for the loser (underdog effect). People should be voting on their preference. Also waste time on the news when they could be reporting about actual issues.
I’d advocate for a ban on polling activity and poll reporting for the 72 hours before election day, to force people and the press to focus on debating the issues, not the polls.
Why 72 hours? Why not a week?
Or 6 weeks? 😈
I think that’s not enough time before the election day to be considering issues. If you’re interested, Bryce Edwards did a series of interesting blog posts based on someone’s Honours thesis about how opinion polls influence the way individuals vote (Link: http://liberation.typepad.com/liberation/2011/11/do-opinion-polls-influence-voters-1-introduction.html)
Thx…
Needs to be over the entire electioneering period which also needs to be longer than the present 6 weeks.
DTB
I think that the polling etc keeps the election before the public. It wouldn’t be good to have it pushed onto the backburner in people’s minds. Maybe stop polls etc for two weeks before, not longer. People who are particularly susceptible to poll reports will be making their minds up in the last two, even one, week.
There are better ways to to keep the election before the public such as informing them of the parties policies.
I picked a 3 day poll blackout period in order to balance concerns around freedom of press. If there was widespread support for a longer period say 7 or 14 days then yes, it should be implemented.
Tracy Watkins has said that “That is the shifting ground beneath undecided voters. Among the 12.5 per cent of voters we questioned, 29.7 per cent lean toward Labour, while 22.2 per cent lean to National.” (Link: http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/9332783/National-sailing-on-unchecked)
If we add those voters in and assume they vote for who they lean towards, National lose a seat, but still have 62 seats in a 124 seat House (assuming all electorate seats are held). This might be some consolation to any of you who are worried about a National government that can govern on its own.
An also interesting fact is that this poll is the third most viewed item according to stuff. I don’t know if that bodes well for Labour or not, but it is interesting given that I assumed the average voter didn’t give a crap about polls this far from an election.
Your time is up!
Asylum ‘cruises’ to NZ touted
People-smugglers in Indonesia are promoting a passage to New Zealand in
shipping containers for up to $17,000 a person and are describing it to
would-be customers as “the cruise ship option”, an Australian news
investigation has found.
I thought Labour said this was impossible.
Link please, or you made it up.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11147302
And the part where Labour said it was “impossible” is where?
http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/9332917/New-Zealand-easy-route-for-people-smugglers
There was a more dramatic headlined article describing a “cruise” to NZ but can’t find it. EDIT Doug found it ^^^
Yawn Doug, and where exactly do you think these ‘people smugglers’ are going to get a container ship from,
Only ‘wing-nuts’ would have an iota of belief in a ‘third-hand’ story produced without a shred of proof in the National Party NZ Herald…
Exactly bad – a made up story with the only real interest being why now, what are they afraid of, what don’t they want people talking about – hmmm hollowhooton gives a clue, I also notice some righties still trying to beat up brown – spring is definitely here – lots of blowhards and some spittle.
Oh, I’m sure there’s some around for cheap hire.
/sarc
LOLZ, i can well imagine that particular ship steaming toward Wellington Harbor with A container full of refugees sitting on the deck,(nothing to see here officer)…
tidal
Tony Abbott elected on promises of stopping the “boat people”, doesn’t believe in climate change … Fairfax newspapers 14% owned by mining magnate Gina Rinehart start spinning the idea that the “boat people” won’t be coming to Australia. Convenient.
It’s a long way from PNG to NZ. Odds are not good for the intrepid asylum seekers.
And the Tasman is a hell of a sea to cross in vessels that are likely to be less than sea worthy.
McD’s USA
http://rt.com/usa/mcdonalds-help-broke-food-stamps-649/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=olUsgn-Ubh0&
According to the video at the bottom of the link above 52% of fast food families use public assistance benefits to survive (time stamp 1:35- 1:42 but watch until the end it’s only a few seconds and it makes a valid point)
What percentage of NZ families that work in similar jobs are reliant on the state for assistance just to pay basic living costs? If welfare is known to be dangerous to your health, why is the burden not shifted back onto the employer instead of the state?
[lprent: too much shouting ]
Big business and big money rules US politics now. Has done for about 40 years. Extremely bad in the last 10 years. Their ability to maintain their Union will come into real question one day.
Same seems to be true in NZ as well although not to the same extent as in the US – pretty sure we’re getting there though.
Well, duh, then the employer wouldn’t make as much profit and they would only have one income stream rather than two. The second being all the money that they’re loaning the government to pay for the costs induced by their low wages.
McD’s USA
These comments are at the bottom of the item at No.9 on low pay. It seems that all of us brought up under the western free market propaganda model respond to complaints by finding fault with the complainer. Being able to coolly look at the situation in its context is not a skill learned at school or home.
fidel 27.10.2013 19:15 – reply to
Ed Walton 25.10.2013 01:58
She’s worked at an entry level job for ten years; yet has no skills to move up. McDonalds isn’t the problem.
Reply – Hey Ed, I’ve worked in this type of environment years ago and it hasn’t changed. As soon as you get the smarts on doing your job and show any initiative, they lay you off. They have a wage ceiling and as soon as you arrive at it, the next step is the door. A lot cheaper to hire 15+ year olds and pay them squat
fidel 27.10.2013 19:05 – reply to
Jp 27.10.2013 06:19
This is smoke screen… Mcdonald that’s for young adults, just to learn how to work… That was my first job 32 years ago! Why are they still working there?
Reply – Th ere aren’t any other jobs you idiot, or do you ever get out or read a newspaper? The real unemployment rate in the good ole USA is almost 10%!
Peas in a pod.
http://www.ilsr.org/chains-walmart-foods-free-ride-taxpayers-expense-responsible-small-businesses/
http://www.forwardprogressives.com/think-walmart-is-an-evil-empire-wait-until-you-read-this/
Ya know, you cant pick and choose the polls you like and dont like, you can talk of trends, over and under polling, but when a majority of polls are pointing to one thing, then that thing is probably going to happen. The only thing that is a certainly is that the greens always poll way higher than the numbers they actually get on election day.
Third term for national for sure, but then Labour will get in the next time, because they will stop this communist stance that they’re promoting to make all the unionists and pta members hard.
“The only thing that is a certainly is that the greens always poll way higher than the numbers they actually get on election day.”
Lolwut?
Counterpoint for you, Brett:
The only thing that is certain (sic) is that National always poll way higher than the numbers they actually get on election day.
time for you to find a blog where U are appreciated Brett Dale (cos it may not be here).
just saying.
ghostrider.
Just saying is the worst catchphrase ever used.
just saying.
“Ya know, you cant pick and choose the polls you like and dont like”
Why not, as long as you pick and chose on the basis of faulty method or demonstrated bias. Picking and choosing on the basis of the results would be stupid.
Brett:
So I take it you support a Final Solution for trade unionists.
Given that you supported the anti union thug, Peter Jackson, who would rather take production of his crappy overlong movie offshore than deal with a trade union and give his workers sick leave and ACC, that pretty much makes you anti union. And who cares if banning unions would guarantee a sweatshop economy, like in China.
Peter Jackson should be in court for his anti democratic thuggish behavior, and the systematic black listing of unionists in the movie industry is something that needs a Royal Commission to look into, and others to be procecuted. Even if every producer, director and film boss in the country was hauled before the ERA and every dollar squeezed out of them in fines.
BEING IN A UNION IS A DEMOCRATIC RIGHT.
Had PJ made the Hobbit in China, all he had to do was ring up the local PLA barracks, and AE members would be sent to the nearest labour camp, or worse.
Millys:
Everybody should have the right to join a union and everybody should have a right not to
join a union.
Millys: Everybody should have the right to join a union, and everybody should have the
right not to join a union.
“Ya know, you cant pick and choose the polls you like and dont like, you can talk of trends, over and under polling, but when a majority of polls are pointing to one thing, then that thing is probably going to happen.”
And the majority of polls point to a change of Government. So what was your, er, point, again?
Te reo Putake:
You mean the three polls after the labour leader election, that pointed to the labour/greens victory and not the 75 polls that pointed to a national victory?
75-3, now Im no good will hunting, but ya dont need to be, with those numbers.
Opps, make that 76-3 now.
Yeah, ’cause political opinions don’t change over time, and a poll that is 3+ years out from an election is going to be more accurate than one taken 1 year out from an election.
It must be a very confusing place inside that little brain of yours, Brett.
Of the last 14 Roy Morgan polls, the left bloc have come out ahead in 10 of them, and the last 5 in a row. So there’s that.
According to Brett’s logic, National did not actually form a government in 2008, because the majority of polls conducted over 1999-2008 showed Labour would be able to form a government.
Hallelujah!
His mental dysfunction goes even deeper than that: clearly we only need to conduct a single political poll, because nothing ever changes. That’s why Brett was so surprised to see *another poll* conducted, because what would be the point of that?
QOT:
Actually they didnt QOT. Key was the firm fav, headed into 2008.
🙄
No Brett, Key was the firm fave in about 20 out of the 144 polls conducted over the 1999-2008 period, so therefore Labour was obviously going to win 2008, based on the exact same logic you’ve displayed in this thread.
Lanthanide:
Im talking about the 2008 election.
Yes, Bretty. So are we. One day you’ll catch up, but sadly we will have moved on, so you’ll just have to keep running.
Wow, he’s even slower than I thought. It does all start to make sense, though.
QoT:
Im always running, but im always running behind.
Never stop to smell the roses the roses, you can always
smell them when your running with them in your hand.
Brett, just about every recent poll, including the historically inaccurate ones like this, show National’s slow slide to the opposition benches. Like it or not, this is MMP and there is no poll saying that National is going win more votes than they did at the last election and without UF, ACT and the MP to prop them up, that’s what they have to do to win.
Donkeyote is beginning to look more and more like the “MUMMY” on teevee last night.
When the magic formula is read he will disappear like a puff of dust.
If polls are no more than advertsing using covert and overt methods to shift opinion ghere is no place for them.
If you advocate 72 hours you are fundamentally agreeing they undermine something so cannot logically rely on freedom of press argument.
Why is the press interested in them??
Gaaaagh. Don’t try and make me think complicatedly on a holiday! 😛
😉
About sums it up really:
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/352704/lefts-central-delusion-thomas-sowell
Wow – it’s like he’s completely erased the GFC from his memory. Not to mention all that economic darwinism crap.
You sir, are a selective idiot , yet, carry on.
From matthews link to research above
“simultaneous to this increase in election poll incidence and coverage has been a worldwide decline in issue based political reporting.[3] The increased focus on election poll results and coalition possibilities is said to have “squeezed” out more relevant types of political information.[4] Factual reporting on parties’ and candidates’ policy positions, track records and capabilities is in sharp decline.[5] This holds true in regard to the 2008 New Zealand election campaign: of the top five most covered topics in the media (accounting for 50% of all election campaign coverage), only one topic, the economy, involved discussion of policy, track records and capabilities.[6] While media coverage of election poll results and coalition possibilities is increasing, reporting of political issues is becoming increasingly superficial and trivial.[7]””
Awesome time lapse
don’t hold ya’ breath Draco
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/9295689/Labour-and-Greens-see-support-grow
See nothing to get your knickers in a twist about lefties…
BUT plenty for the right to be worried bout
Any comments Hooten?
NY Federal Reserve Examiner Fired After Submitting Critical Report of Goldman Sachs
It’s a video.
Iprent, you seem to forget how Labour did over the same period. If you look at the average of polls you will see in 12 months before the 2011 election National dropped 4% but Labour dropped nearly twice that at 7.5%.
I know its hard to bare but when the cold light of argument shines on Labours policies and record they dont seem to do so well. Cunliffes honeymoon only lasted a month, JKs seems to be going on forever. Remember all that rubbish in 2009 when all were saying JKs honeymoon is over!
A link to the proof of your assertions will go a long way toward making the debate more meaningful or did you just read the comments in the post and think to apply Nationals 2011 pre-election polling from the same organization being presently discussed to the Labour Party instead…
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/opinion-polling-for-the-New-Zealand-general-election-2011 , hope that helps.
That’s not proof of your assertion.
“Cold light of argument” 😆
You mean screaming blue murder about “Socialism” and making throat-slitting gestures? Argument, you haven’t got one.
As for Labour’s record, do we have to remind you who said they left the economy in good shape in 2008? It was Bill English. Oh, and John Key.
Did you forget that once the books were made public Cullen said”the cupboard is bare” a great achievement after 9 years when the economies of every country in the OECD boomed. After 5 years of National Government when the World has been in recession, we have Growth in NZ,the envy of most OECD countiies. Under the last 6 months of Labour Negative Growth,of as Labours finance minister said” a technical recession”
Did you forget that you wingnuts spent nine years complaining that Cullen was running a surplus and paying down debt?
When you say “the cupboard is bare”, you do recall some tax cuts eh? You see, government raises revenue (that means money) by levying “taxes” (like tennis club fees) and then uses them to provide services as approved by Parliament – things like roads and schools and hospitals and remedial education and support teachers, and all the other things you are a beneficiary of.
So when a government voluntarily slashes its own income who emptied the cupboard?
Please try and keep up.
what a blinkered opinion, Cullen said the cupboard was bare before National had a budget and lowered taxes,did you forget they also put up GST to compensate for the loss of income or is your memory just a bit selective. Remember also that increasing taxes isnt the only answer, it was labours only answer but try growth. You know that thing thats happening under a National Government. More growth =more income = more taxerevenue. Just trying to Tax Rich pricks is a failed Labour policy. If you want a succesful economy it has to grow pushing up wages without growth and taxes without increasing income just leaves you and your policies on the opposition benches,funny that isnt it!
If you dont believe me check Greece and cyprus and most of Europe,especialy the bits with a leftwing Government.
Yeah, slashing income when the “cupboard is bare” is such a rational thing to do.
And that putting even more taxes onto the poor didn’t work either as the total change left the government around $1b to $2b dollars a year worse off.
As history shows growth is something that happens despite National and not because of them
History shows that taxing the rich causes more growth and now even the IMF is suggesting that we tax the rich more.
We’ve had growth over the last 30 years, overall, wages have gone down while profits have gone up.
All you’ve really shown here is your complete disconnection from reality. Everything you’ve said is wrong.
What a strange answer. Have wages realoy gone down over the last30 years , thefacts say different.
evidence for “despite national” In recession National has done as well as Labour in the boom years. You explain why we were 2 places lower inOECD rankings after Labour got in and since National got in WE have gained 2 places! ! to 2 billion ,which, its quite a big difference. Are you saying we are better off because National reduced our total tax gift to the Government and yet improved policing ,health and the economy. More of that please!
Sorry mate, you are dreaming. Most people reading this blog understand that prices have gone up while wages and hours have struggled and fallen behind.
Shame you are so out of touch, you almost had prospects (well, not really).
He gave it a fair crack and was found wanting. We need better wingnuts.
Must be all those facts that you’re not used to seeing.
Citation needed and, no, linking to National Party website, Kiwiblog or WhaleOil will not be regarded as reliable source.
Oh, that’s easy. We were, and still are, following neo-liberal policies, i.e, the free-market. This resulted in our economy turning to custard over the last thirty years. The reason why we’re relatively up now is because a few other countries, following the same delusional economic prescriptions, have suddenly become worse off (really, this is only a surprise to the neo-liberals and RWNJs).
Nope, I’m saying we’re worse off because of those things. More poverty, more money going to the non-productive rich and debt sky-rocketing.
I think my reply there disappeared into spam.
what a blinkered opinion
You spelled ‘Want’ wrong, and should have finished with a question mark not a comma.
Cullen lowered taxes you nonce, hence the ‘cupboard being bare’ comment.
As for National’s growth, if you factor out record dairy prices, you start to get what they can take credit for. Building roads that don’t make the grade in terms of the Ministry’s own method for determining good value spending, rebuilding ChCh which has to happen but falls under ‘broken windows’, and a housing boom that English spent the first few years telling us was what his ‘rebalancing’ of the economy was supposed to move us away from.
And who said we should be ‘more like Ireland’?
Rockape — how many hospitals were closed under National between 1990 and 1999? And how many were closed under Labour between 1999 and 2008?
rockape, why are you quoting OECD stats as if they’re not online (www.oecd.org)?
I really don’t mind you making shit up, but when it’s so easily seen to be bullshit, that’s just an insult.
Well you must be looking at a socialist version. When Labour came to goverment the last time we were rated 20th on our economy in the OECD. Clarks plan was to increase our ranking. In 2004 we had dropped to21st, 2007 to 22nd were we remained until National took over. We are now back to 20th under National. Its taken 5 years to undo the damage Labour did last time.
For the bulk of the Clark govt, NZ averaged a quarter of a percent above the OECD quarterly growth figure, with about a quarter of the data points being lower than the OECD average..
For Key’s government, that’s not less than a tenth above the OECD figure on average, with a ratio of 7:11 under:over the OECD average.
“Brighter future” my arse.
We’re only at 20 in the OECD list because the other countries in the list dropped farther after the GFC than we did.
I don’t think this is to any particular credit to National, because they basically did nothing in response to the GFC – not really difficult. I think it’s more a reflection of our economy: we’re a primary producer of agricultural products with very little in the way of value-add. This makes it difficult for us to rise up the OECD rankings, but conversely also means we won’t fall as far when troubled economic times hit, because we simply don’t have a very complex or dynamic economy.
And when the warmth of sunlight and reality hits them they do quite well. It’s only on Planet Key that they don’t do so well.
Reality Draco. Labour in the wildest dreams cant expect to come near 50% in the election. National are going to be bloody close! Labour see it as a great success to get above 30% in the polls and see it as a failure if National get less than 50%. What a strange World to live in.
A world with MMP in it? Yes, what a fanciful dream.
National need 50% in order to be able to form a government.
It’s an ideal example of why neoliberalism fails: by refusing cooperation and basic social interaction with anyone of a different creed, National now need to provide pretty much all their electoral support for themselves. If they fail to achieve an outstanding victory, they will sit on the opposition benches until they learn to play with others. The left, on the other hand, can work together, respecting, accepting, and accommodating different policy objectives. Each party might not achieve dominance and the power to ram through their particular policy fetish, but by working together, they have a much better chance of sitting on the government benches. While scrooge mcfuck yells “humbug” from the other side, while getting his woodlice to sniff underwear in the search for scandal.
Fortunately, Labour has a coalition partner in the Greens who sit over 10% themselves. Who does National have at the moment?
I am not so sure how the next election will go to be honest. Mr Cunliffe is as silent as Shearer was. The general public needs to know what Labour stands for as many have forgotten. One needs to remember that the ordinary folks out there are scared to loose the job, being able to raise their kids, pay the doctor, go onto retirement etc… once people are in that predicament its very difficult to get them changing their opinion and vote, if they vote at all.
Huh???
What do you mean with Huh??? – Maybe academic and political circles talk a lot about him, but Joe blogs does not hear much. I know he is traveling the provinces but what are the policies re employment, growth, sustainability, debt and taxes etc…try to ask people in the street and you will quickly realize that not many can give any answers.
Step by step mate, the man is busy.
lol
how much time should we start giving labour party leaders, now?
Oh, just the usual, another 6 months or so.
lol
Yes, but isn’t that his job? He was sitting a long time on the backbench able to put some coherent ideas together. Or is this just a case of not revealing to much too soon?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9Mwq8SvHYQ
Colon Craig
Cunliffe poll on Stuff.co.nz
Scroll down, make your opinion count, let’s push the man up a couple of notches.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/9332786/Poll-a-major-blow-to-Labour
Aint going to work as he hasnt done well. Do you realy think trying to rig the poll will help Labour. See colmar Brunton. Labour 34% and only a third of them think hes a good performer. Do I see another Labour leader before election day.
Hey rockape. Do I see John Key lying politically comatose on the ground with Judith Collins standing gleefully over him? Why, yes I do.
I could think of worse things…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u52Oz-54VYw
All together now
:-D, nice tune-up NAS
Bunch of right-wing monkeys don’t like Cunliffe?
I’m ok with that.
felix:
Seems only 12% of people like cunliffe.
Yep I would be worried like hell if they liked him.
His wife seems pretty sharp, hopefully she’ll be advising him
Oh look, creepy right wingers getting creepy about people’s families again.
Creep.
Ok you’ll need to explain why that comment was creepy because apart from what I’m guessing is your inability to distinguish between reality and fantasy I’m not sure how something that was complimentary could be taken as creepy
But I’m sure you’ll have some totally plausible explanation
Oh look, creepy right wingers creeping backwards away from their creepy behaviour.
Again.
Lets see, I asked you to explain why what I said was creepy and instead of telling me why you instead try to continue on by saying its creepy
You might want to consider that just because you think somethings creepy doesn’t ackshully make it creepy
Bringing the family members of your opponents into the discussion is creepy, creep.
Kinda weird that you think that needs explanation.
When the economy is fucked, the unemployment is on the rise and the living standard keeps dropping, let’s keep the masses distracted with scaremongering about boatloads of asylum seekers heading for our shores:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11147302
Economy F8888d not according to every economic indicator.A world reccession and National are dragging NZ up the OECD scale, unlike Labour were we dropped.
See my reply at 20.2.1.2.1.2.
DNFTT
And your comment shows very much what manipulation is being applied. Of cause the US is in a very bad state due to the money press running since quite a while. What will happen when it stops? The contraction in the world markets will certainly be felt. Japan, another one that is in a similar situation and China’s economy is coming off the boil. Of cause NZ looks good against this backdrop, even Bangladesh would. To compare this to a NZ when all 3 major trading partners had not yet seen the banking crush of 2008 is simply deceit. None of the NZ parties will or have ever been able to influence any of this. To sell this to the NZ public as an achievement is almost treachery.
Just like Sister Ray Says Have a Good Night have a good night, have a good night…have good night…
Just Like Sister Ray “Says”
(eat my dust).
This might appeal to all those upright ethical tory lads suddenly so concerned about leadership ethics and morality……
From NRT: John Key [p 13] spent $110 on very expensive skin-care products, tagged as “NZ skin care for protocol officer”. Was it a gift? Because if it wasn’t, it seems extravagant. Not to mention odd
Indeed. Odd…..
Perhaps he wanted to feel pretty?
Children’s Commissioner funds study into child poverty from outside non-cooperative government
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11147721