Open mike 30/11/2024

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, November 30th, 2024 - 63 comments
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Open mike is your post.

For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Step up to the mike …

63 comments on “Open mike 30/11/2024 ”

  1. Sanctuary 1

    The level of unprofessional incompetence displayed by the watch officer and bridge crew in the loss of HMNZS Manawanui is beyond belief. Commander Yvonne Gray will rightly never captain another vessel and, along with the ships entire senior commanders, should be court martialed and dismissed from the Navy.

    If this incident doesn't set off alarm bells about the degraded standards, lack of basic seamanship and collapse of discipline in the Navy I have no idea what will. God only knows what collapse of command and control would occur if one of our ships was hit by a missile.

    • Cricklewood 1.1

      Remarkarbly similar to what happened with the ferry.

      Courtmarshall and time spent in the military prison at Burnham prob on the cards.

    • tWig 1.2

      "The ship’s crew did not realise the autopilot was engaged, believed something else had gone wrong with the ship, and did not check that the HMNZS Manawanui was under manual control as it maintained course towards land, a summary of the inquiry’s first report published on Friday said. The full report has not been made public."

      From The Guardian.

      The degree to which the captain was responsible, and how much the issue was poor training onshore needs to be ascertained in detail before you say "It was all due to her". As with the ferry grounding, what role did the company installers of the autopilot, who should have provided appropriate training materials play? And did senior management at NDF sign off the installation check that full training of the pilots using the systems had been done? At the very least, the earlier ferry grounding should have led NDF command to thoroughly review and update their own autopilot training, quick smart. Doesn't look like they did.

      As with any shit hitting the fan, there is often a sacrifice who carries the can for backroom errors of bigwigs. 'Organised litany of lies' comes to mind as a prime example at Air NZ. The idea of a court-martial for the captain suggested here at TS follows our lovely kiwi tradition of the blame-game.

      I dislike the immediate bad-mouthing of the captain because of these factors, and perhaps because I smell a whiff of misogynistic "It'd never have happened with a man in charge". in material posted online around this event.

      • joe90 1.2.1

        The degree to which the captain was responsible,

        Captains of all vessels have ultimate responsibility for all and everything that occurs to and aboard that vessel.

        Yvonne Gray is done.

      • Drowsy M. Kram 1.2.2

        "It'd never have happened with a man in charge".

        At least no-one died. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Costa_Concordia_disaster

        It's just overshoot in action – time to go home, if you're lucky enough to have one.

      • Anne 1.2.3

        Spot on tWig.

        As for the :

        …. who carries the can for backroom errors of bigwigs. 'Organised litany of lies' comes to mind as a prime example at Air NZ.

        Oh yes. Air NZ showed the way with the support of the PM of the day, Robert Muldoon, and the "big-wigs" have used the mode of operation since to blame some unfortunate employee for their own incompetency.

    • weston 1.3

      What a pantomime the press conference was !! Its a wonder the the admiral wasnt wearing his sword as well as the silly costume You would think with all the flags filligree and frippery it was a wartime announcement !!

      A bit more info is provided in the vid below on the type of ship Manawanui was her propulsion systems etc apparentley navy nz might have scimpped on some tech which may well have prevented the whole costly exercise .



  2. Nigel Haworth 2

    The Labour Party conference in train is of greater moment than usual. At root, it’s marked by a debate as to where power lies in the party, and the extent to which membership empowers, and therefore directs, Caucus. The nature of representative democracy is in play. This is a very good thing.

    The issue is not about this person or that. Contemporary politics and media coverage are overmuch invested in personality. It is about the purpose and soul of a party of and for working people. A party clear about purpose will do the right thing on tax, captain’s calls, and the rest.

    • Ad 2.1

      That 2013 Conference was very hard won. For a while the New Lynn LEC that drove the changes were a leper colony.

      And when it came to the actual mechamism, Ardern was just anointed by a few Caucus leads. One of which is now leader.

      Looking forward to the results of the tax dialogue.

    • Sanctuary 2.2

      What is the current membership? I ask because I doubt a party of a few thousand people with an over representation of hope-triumphing-over-reality superannuitants and a pile of "union" delegates (in a country where unions are hard to distinguish from a corporate bargaining agent) talking to bunch of politicians most of whom are members of an interchangeable centrist administrative class for the neoliberal state can truly address the needs of the country and the dire multiple crisises of late capitalism and climate change.

      To quote Lenin – “The fundamental law of revolution… …is as follows: for a revolution to take place it is not enough for the exploited and oppressed masses to realise the impossibility of living in the old way, and demand changes; for a revolution to take place it is essential that the exploiters should not be able to live and rule in the old way. It is only when the “lower classes” do not want to live in the old way and the “upper classes” cannot carry on in the old way that the revolution can triumph…"

      In other words, if the charge that Labour both identifies with the exploiters more than trhe exploited and represents the (liberal centrist) desire to live and rule in the old way in the face of revolutionary conditions, what steps – before the remits and debates about where power may sit – need to be undertaken to transform it again to an institution capable of expressing a desire to join with the exploited in recognising the old ways of living and ruling are no longer tenable?

      MAGA and the revanchists behind the rise of authoritarianism have recognised this pre-revolutionary moment and seek to bend us to fascism via unconstitutional conservativatism and asymmetric polarisation within an entirely self-contained alternative reality. How can a party like Labour reform itself to a point it is ready to take the fight to the ascendant, nascent autrhoritarianism of the populist right?

      • Ad 2.2.1

        Labour politics is defined by who turns up.

        So join something Sanctuary and you'll at least have more interesting complaining to do. ;_)

        • SPC 2.2.1.1

          Who turns up to “cozen” best.

          Appearing democratic in choosing a leader (but if the public perceive the caucus and leader to not be united, there is a consequence*).

          After all the effort of 2013 merely resulted first a learning* and then a caucus work around (Little to Ardern).

          But then the Cunliffe faction had later supported Little as leader … so who was going to complain?

          Sort of says, it is about the policy really…

    • Dennis Frank 2.3

      Clarity of purpose is indeed an excellent aspiration. Unfortunately, when members each achieve that but fail to specify that purpose, the road to hell becomes paved with good intentions. I predict this conference will not specify that purpose.

      You will expostulate that doing so is elementary, no doubt. True, but when has that truth compelled Labour to inform the public of its agreed purpose? Not since the first term of the Lange govt, right? So it would be unrealistic to expect sudden credibility.

      Nevertheless I'll concede a point to Hipkins here:

      He said New Zealanders did not think Labour was focused, and they had lost faith in the party's ability to deliver on promises. https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/535261/chris-hipkins-calls-for-labour-to-change-to-win-2026-election

      So he got that right. Yet to transform public views of Labour in the general direction of competence, you need a leader to lead. The closest he got was telling Labour they must "help people to find common ground." Didn't tell them how to do that!

      • Ad 2.3.1

        Shoutout for epostulate.

      • SPC 2.3.2

        True, but when has that truth compelled Labour to inform the public of its agreed purpose? Not since the first term of the Lange govt, right?

        Are you taking the piss?

        Douglas wrote a book in 1983 indicating his "pro market" (and tax reform) position. Lange (leader in 1983) then had him as his Finance choice, but the manifesto said scarcely a word about it all. There was no 1983 party conference mandate for this change in party economic policy.

        On tax point, Douglas of 1983 stated his preference for an assets tax over a CGT, and then did neither. He was misled by the existence of an estate/inheritance tax (till Richardson removed this) and gift duty (Key removed that) into thinking he would not be creating a gated community class system here, by allowing CG and wealth acquisition to be inter-generational.

        But his real failure was not appreciating he was enabling unproductive speculation in the property market (all while reducing government funding). This has lead to our low productivity growth.

        He has yet to acknowledge these monumental mistakes.

        Nor has Labour realised a way out of it, apart from the effort at a tax change on landlords (never into full effect).

        For mine, that method was not timely enough – just place a surcharge on mortgages on existing rental property. It is more effective in getting revenues in the here and now and still incentivises private capital to new build.

        • Dennis Frank 2.3.2.1

          Thanks for that. An enlightening review of the Roger. I wasn't paying much attention to him at the time of all that (busy with intellectual hobby stuff). His duplicity may have been a consequence of having to game Labour's system. yes

          • SPC 2.3.2.1.1

            I was in correspondence at the time with RD, pre 1984 election, questioned him about his plans and he affirmed he stood by what was in his book (a lot of papers/pages where he explained it all).

            Also with Anne Hercus, I was raising the idea of making super retirement based (I was not a fan of the surtax on income as this included that from savings), she was of the view that this would be unfair on those still working to pay off a mortgage.

    • tWig 2.4

      Maybe the UK Labour Party approach might provide balance: caucus elects the leader, while Party members elect the Deputy leader.

      • Nic the NZer 2.4.1

        Should be a model of a party which purged most of its left wing before taking office in a historically low turnout election?

  3. Morrissey 3

    We have some pretty dim and dire “academics” in this country, but is any of them as hapless as Tim Snyder? He takes a caning in this hilarious thread…

    https://x.com/TimothyDSnyder/status/1861442282483781851

  4. joe90 4

    Imagine being VP elect and still having to grovel in public to demonstrate your submission to master.

    JD Vance

    @JDVance

    https://x.com/JDVance/status/1862285652609388954

  5. Dennis Frank 5

    Bomber frames his advice to Labour with this ennead:

    • Wealth Tax
    • Financial Transactions Tax
    • New higher top tax rate
    • Billionaire tax
    • Vice Taxes on tobacco, gambling and booze
    • Sugar Tax
    • Ghost House tax
    • Polluter Tax
    • Land Tax

    https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2024/11/29/the-vision-the-2024-labour-conference-in-christchurch-needs/

    Seems okay to me, but too prescriptive for a conference to action. It is a valid red/Green design though, so Labour's economic policy designers ought to use it. Bet they don't!

    • Kay 5.1

      My view would be to not say anything about vice taxes (and possibly sugar) until after an election is won, at which point, just do it. The majority don't care too much at all- and even support- most of the other tax suggestion, since it doesn't involve them, and the really rich should be paying their fair share anyway. But vices do, and people tend to get really upset when they think their booze is going to cost them more.

      • Dennis Frank 5.1.1

        I'm inclined to agree with your rationale – seems like sensible marketing strategy. They could have a dual policy as you suggest: publicise attractive features primarily, agree to policy points likely to be problematic and not publicise those. Risks the enemy within scenario of course (members telling reporters about that).

      • Sanctuary 5.1.2

        I agree – just say you plan to get serious about the obesity crisis in your health policy and after the election do a fat/sugar tax as a health measure, not a revenue one.

        Focussing on tax at all simply plays to the right's narrative & anyway, it does nothing about the structural problems in our increasingly rentier economy.

        I'd focus on concrete measures to lower the cost of living and attack the government on that – after all, promises to do something about the cost of living is what got them elected in the first place. Tell the public the supermarket duopoly will be gone within the first year in office. Promise comprehensive anti-monopoly/cartel laws and give them teeth to deal with the chronic price fixing, proce goughing and cartel behaviour in the NZ market. Explain how Labour will go after the obscene profits of Australian owned banks with windfall taxes and tougher regulations. Look at the government paying a stay at home parent up to two thirds of their salary averaged over the previous five years (capped of course) for a maximum of, say, seven years if you married and have children under five.

        I would make a big and bold deal about a renewed social contract between the government and the people. Make kiwisaver compulsory and untouchable and start to start to phase out superannuation from the 2050s. Propose to protect our children with a SM and smart phone ban for under 16s and offer term limits for list MPs and compulsory retirement ages for elected public officials along with financial reform of party donations and funding. Propose the the creation of volunteer special constables to help police, the first $10,000 of income tax free if you completed 100 hours of volunteer community in the previous 12 months, make election day a mid week public holiday which is paid either at your employers discretion or upon presentation to your emplyer a voting card. In other words, you don't have to vote but if you don't your employer doesn't have to pay you.

        Offer lots of policies that reward community engagement as a responsibility to society.

      • weka 5.1.3

        good advice Kay. Please join the Labour Party 😉

    • Ad 5.2

      He's an idiot.

      Labor UK and Labor Australia are our only successful current models. And they win power by stealth, not arm-waving.

      • Dennis Frank 5.2.1

        Yeah, realpolitik. Your point is well-made & concise. Labour ought to make you Head of Propaganda – covertly, of course. No badge!

      • adam 5.2.2

        Agree Ad, leave the arm waving to the Greens and Te Pāti Māori.

        Labour are better off going for the middle vote – and offering up steady leadership.

    • AB 5.3

      It's terrible strategy to start the discussion with tax. Instead start with what you want to do and why (Sanctuary's suggestions at 5.1.2 for example). Make life substantially better for the bottom 80% of people and keep that shift as fiscally neutral as you reasonably can through the tax system.

      But total fiscal neutrality won't be politically possible and so believing that the holy grail is running surpluses puts you into the perpetual straitjacket of ineffectual tinkering and losing elections to the far right. So it's necessary get out of the mindset that tax is needed to fund the government. Richard Murphy gives six reasons why taxation is necessary and they are about controlling the money supply (and therefore inflation) and meeting various economic and social objectives. None are about funding the government. Tax is a tool for achieving what you want.

      • Mikey 5.3.1

        Make it smart by balancing a hike at the top end with a cut at the bottom. On PAYE, so it's instantly noticeable.

  6. Sanctuary 6

    Bradbury is a deeply misogynistic culture war hysteric who is incapable of organising a successful election to the board of the local flower arranging society let alone to parliament. Like Cam Slater, he is a confirmed political failure. He specialises in attacking enemies for slights mainly imagined or self inflicted by his inability to behave like a mature adult for more than five minutes.

    Labour would do well to simply completely ignore him.

    Labour could do though with getting a bit more intellectual heft into the party. Bring out speakers like Richard Seymour, Stephanie Kelton, Grace Blakely maybe even an Ash Sarkar or a Peter Hitichens to run talks (and be in jected into the broadcast media & online new MSM) would be a great idea.

    • Ad 6.1

      They'll listen to you if you're at Conference having the critical conversations.

    • koina 6.2

      The economy and tax play no role in elections.

      New Zealanders are either Rich or well off.

      There are no poor people any more.

      The National/NZF/ACT 2023 election was not based on any real policy at all

      Real policy does not appeal to the masses.

      Majority prejudice ignorance and power won the 2023 election.

      The Rights has the easy task of confirming White prejudice ignorance and power.

      The left has to challenge White prejudice ignorance and power. Much much harder

      The reality is the left will never change White prejudice ignorance and power and

      simply has to wait till 2029 when enough of the entitled White swinging voters get

      bored with the right wing and swing left for a change..

  7. Dennis Frank 7

    Fusion 2.0 is absolutely positively happening in Wellington: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/29/climate/nuclear-fusion-openstar/index.html

    In a commercial warehouse overlooking the ocean in New Zealand’s capital Wellington, a startup is trying to recreate the power of a star on Earth using an unconventional “inside out” reactor with a powerful levitating magnet at its core… Earlier this month, OpenStar Technologies announced it had managed to create superheated plasma at temperatures of around 300,000 degrees Celsius, or 540,000 degrees Fahrenheit – one necessary step on a long path toward producing fusion energy.

    The company hailed it as a breakthrough. “First plasma is a really important moment,” said Ratu Mataira, OpenStar’s founder and CEO, it’s “the moment that you know that everything works effectively.” It took the company two years and around $10 million to get here, he told CNN… fusion companies have attracted more than $7.1 billion in funding, according to the Fusion Industry Association… OpenStar has already raised $12 million and is now embarking on a much bigger funding round & plans to build two further prototypes over [the next] four years.

    Their development trajectory is focused on scaling up capacity, which is ambitious for exploratory tech enterprise – but economically prudent.

    • alwyn 7.1

      What ever happened to "nuclear-free" New Zealand?

      • dv 7.1.1

        You do realise that NZ is powered 100% by nuclear energy.

      • Nic the NZer 7.1.2

        The plan for a giant sun umbrella turned out to be impractical.

      • SPC 7.1.3

        Ernest Rutherford.

        We are also good at start-ups achieving something and then on-selling to those overseas with more money, less hydro/geo-thermal/solar and wind capacity.

        • alwyn 7.1.3.1

          Rutherford probably wouldn't have agreed with you.

          In 1933, in an address to the British Association for the Advancement of Science he said –

          'The energy produced by the breaking down of the atom is a very poor kind of thing. Any one who expects a source of power from the transformation of these atoms is talking moonshine. … We hope in the next few years to get some idea of what these atoms are, how they are made and the way they are worked."

          https://archive.org/details/B-001-018-092/page/n129/mode/2up

          • SPC 7.1.3.1.1

            I used Rutherford as an example of our ingenuity and yet relative lack of ability to develop ideas into global corporations based here.

            Albert Einstein concluded his famous equation, 𝐸=𝑚𝑐2, in 1905, as part of his special theory of relativity. Not that he made much money out of it.

            Not much progress though, physics is now tied up in a closet by string theory (some less politely say strung up auto…. something).

            • alwyn 7.1.3.1.1.1

              If you think we have a problem now just wait and see what might happen if Labour were to become the Government and bring in a TPM wealth tax!

              There wouldn't be any sizable New Zealand owned, or based, companies at all.

              • SPC

                Any wealth tax would not impact existing companies operating successfully.

                Nor impact on foreign investment inflow.

                Nor increase the tax burden on a companies operations.

                Nor would it prevent the formation of new companies.

                It's impact would be on the amount of private "wealth" after tax.

                But if that incentivised better (productive) use of that stored wealth, it might well be good for the economy.

                A wealth tax is a hybrid between a CGT and estate/inheritance tax (and gift duty regime.

                It is a short term option when developing those more common tax regimes (35/36 OECD nations have a CGT and 24/36 have the inheritance/estate tax as well). This is how they afford a/the modern nation state.

                • alwyn

                  Have you ever looked at the TPM wealth tax proposal?

                  It is for an 8% annual tax on any wealth above $10 million dollars for an individual or couple. Is anyone going to build a successful company and pay that sort of annual levy which is in addition to all the other taxes TPM are going to charge?

                  Of course anyone who has developed a small business is either going to take it overseas or sell it to an overseas buyer.

                  Something like FPH would be long gone into an overseas domicile or at minimum overseas ownership.

                  It is a completely insane idea.

                  https://drive.google.com/file/d/1enD6_apIfJi84_aI-7NjmpJ2lfpoNQsP/view

                  • SPC

                    FPH would not pay any wealth tax, it is a company.

                    Wealth taxes could be “problematic’ at high rates – as per working capital/equity in a “founders” developing business.

                    But the Green Party and Labour have not proposed wealth taxes at those rates, nor would they.

                • Mikey

                  It very much needs not to be called a wealth tax.

      • SPC 7.1.4

        The current government is considering signing up to AUKUS Pillar 2.

        The concept is of a design to break our resistance to nuclear power ship visits and nuclear weapons more generally (US nuclear armed subs can visit – Oz, Canada , UK, South Korea and Japan).

        Given our nuclear free South Pacific policy, our response should be to say, not interested, while Pillar 2 is related to Pillar 1.

        There is no reason to connect wider co-operation with "AUKUS" (an inappropriate name for one and seems to infer an acceptance of UK/USA nuclear armed sub visits to port).

  8. SPC 8

    Once were number one …

    https://www.crictracker.com/stats-top-10-teams-with-best-slip-catching-percentage-since-2019-in-tests/

    6 dropped catches would be a record in one day of test cricket. Oz has a record of 6 in one test. The record for dropped catches in a test match (India vs England 2006) is 12.

    Brook being dropped 4 times in one innings (so far) and one player dropping 3 chances in one day are "special" moments in test cricket.

    http://www.sportstats.com.au/articles/droppedcatches2016.pdf

    • SPC 8.1

      More special, it reached 5 dropped catches off the bat of Brooks – Phillips, “the worlds best fielder”, now gets a mention in the records having dropped two catchable chances off one batter in one innings.

      Since 2006 the CricViz database has only one previous Test innings with five dropped catches – Stuart Broad vs West Indies, Lord's 2009.

    • SPC 8.2

      While the Black Caps have been ham handed in butchering their chances of appearing a Lords in the Test Championship final, Smithfields of London has closed after knocking up 8 centuries of animal slaughter.

  9. Drowsy M. Kram 9

    No list of businesses to back Willis’ work-from-home stance [30 Oct 2024]
    Public service minister confirms the call to rein in remote work arrangements was based on conversations, not calculations

    Our CoC govt frowns on public servants working from home, so what chance they might introduce paid climate leave – a snowball's chance in Hell?

    Spain introduces paid climate leave after deadly floods [29 Nov 2024]
    Government approves up to four days of paid leave so workers can avoid travelling during weather emergencies

    The legislation was inspired by similar laws in Canada, RTVE reported. “In the face of climate denialism from the right, the Spanish government is committed to green policies,” Díaz said, according to a report in El País.

  10. adam 10

    Good to see the UK doing it's bit to smash democracy and the rights of people to determine their own future. Funny how the Kurds are always the ones who get smashed in the face – maybe it's because they are one of the very few groups who embrace, and act upon ideas of equality and human rights left in the west.

  11. Dennis Frank 11

    Top capitalist steering the Trump:

    Trump and JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon have been holding secret talks over the policy agenda for Trump's second term in the White House, FOX Business correspondent Charlie Gasparino reported Friday.

    Citing four sources close to Trump's transition team, Dimon has served as a "sounding board" for the president-elect for months on issues such as reducing government spending, tax policy, trade and banking regulations.

    Trump has been critical of Dimon in the past, most recently last year, when he referred to the JPMorgan boss as a "Highly overrated Globalist" on his Truth Social platform. https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/trump-has-reportedly-held-secret-talks-jamie-dimon-months-about-economic-agenda

    In November 2023, Dimon said he preferred Nikki Haley over Donald Trump as the Republican nominee in the 2024 U.S. presidential election… in October 2024, The New York Times reported that Dimon was privately supporting Harris' 2024 campaign.

    Classic middleman playing both sides of the game. He's a New Yorker of Greek ancestry. He's "been the Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase since 2006". Not often you see those 2 roles combined by 1 person in corporate structures. Too smart to put himself in a position for Trump to tell him "You're fired".

    Dimon is one of the few bank chief executives to have become a billionaire, largely because of his stake in JPMorgan Chase… Dimon carries everywhere a sheet of paper on which he writes lists of things to do, things to check up on, and things to remember, which he systematically crosses off.

    Tell Trump what to do. Cross it off. Tell him again. Cross it off. And again. Cross it off. Ok, should stick now…

  12. Dennis Frank 12

    Rebels have forced the Syrian Army out of Aleppo: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/aleppo-airport-closed-sources-say-syrian-rebels-reach-heart-city-2024-11-29/

    Syrian authorities closed Aleppo airport as well as all roads leading into the city on Saturday, three military sources told Reuters, as rebels opposed to President Bashar al-Assad said they had reached the heart of Aleppo.

    The opposition fighters, led by the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, carried out a surprise sweep through government-held towns this week and reached Aleppo nearly a decade after having been forced out by Assad and his allies.

    Russia, one of Assad's key allies, has promised Damascus extra military aid to thwart the rebels, two military sources said, adding new hardware would start arriving in the next 72 hours.

    Depends what kind of weapons & if the regime soldiers know how to use them I guess. Putin's in a strong enough position in Ukraine to not view his help as a problem. Not a good look for the regime though. Knife thro butter, many will think…

  13. SPC 13

    The Labour Party has decided by "remit" to consider either either a wealth tax or a CGT, but not others new taxes (such as an inheritance tax).

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/labour-inches-closer-to-wealth-tax-or-cgt-after-membership-vote/XNVEHJCDJFGDJM5DNKQ3PUGH6Q/

    For mine the best option is a wealth tax with restoration of the bright-line tax on existing property (or all residential investment property with a mortgage surcharge on existing investment property, excluding new builds).

    But with the consideration that the wealth tax payments be seen as a down payment on any future estate tax.

    Thus a wealth tax unpaid would be attached to the estate and one paid would be a down payment on any future liability on the estate.

    For example 1% per annum for 15 years being about 1/2 a 30% estate tax pre paid.

    The relevant point being at what level the wealth tax and estate tax is applied.

    In jurisdictions with an estate tax, most do not pay any. And most wealth taxes include only the top 5-10%.

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