Open mike 31/10/2020

47 comments on “Open mike 31/10/2020 ”

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1. Andre 1

   31 October 2020 at 6:41 am

   For fellow US politics tragics that are going to spend Wednesday frantically refreshing and doom-scrolling US results, here's a brief summary of how results are expected to shift as more votes are counted in various states.

   https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/30/politics/red-blue-mirage-election-results/index.html

   tl;dr Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and to a lesser extent Minnesota, early results will come from in-person voting on the day, and are expected to be better for the sherbert pervert. Early and mail votes will be counted later and are expected to shift towards Biden.

   Florida, North Carolina, and possibly also Ohio, Iowa and Texas, a lot of early and mail votes get processed before election day, and will be announced quickly. These are expected to favour Biden, with a shift towards The Dotard of Doltistan as more on-the-day votes are counted.

   Georgia could be all over the place, how they do it varies by county. Arizona, New Hampshire and Maine have taken steps specifically to avoid having substantial shifts during vote counts.

   side note, as of yesterday, more early votes have been cast in Texas than were cast in all of 2016. So Texas is likely to provide a burst of early excitement, with a long drawn-out anxiety about whether Biden's lead is big enough to hold through to the end.
   • Ad 1.1

     31 October 2020 at 7:00 am

     Trump is getting a good late surge in key states, but with the majority of votes cast already its just too late.

     Looks better than 2016 in multiple respects.
     • Andre 1.1.1

       31 October 2020 at 7:07 am

       Dunno if that apparent late surge is real. If you dig down into the individual results that make up the polling averages, it might just be that Repug-friendly outfits like Rasmussen, Trafalgar, Susquehanna are releasing results more frequently so it's more likely they will be included in the average.
   • Ad 1.2

     31 October 2020 at 7:02 am

     C'mon Harrison!
     • Andre 1.2.1

       31 October 2020 at 7:09 am

       Ossof too. Fuck me, he was brutal to Perdue in their first debate. Calling Perdue a crook to his face was just the beginning. So Perdue bailed out on a second helping.
     • Andre 1.2.2

       31 October 2020 at 7:50 am

       Unsung heroes of the 2020 Senate contests include Theresa Greenfield (Iowa), Barbara Bollier (Kansas, Republican until recently), Mary Hegar (Texas). All doing solid work with low recognition that might reap the rewards if the blue wave is big enough.
   • Sacha 1.3

     31 October 2020 at 7:08 am

     Early and mail votes will be counted later

     Or not.
     • Andre 1.3.1

       31 October 2020 at 7:20 am

       It's a worry, and it's very likely some legitimate early votes will get trashed for illegitimate reasons.

       But the balance of power has shifted towards the Dems since 2016 in critical states. For instance, Michigan and Wisconsin now have Dem governors, but were Repugs in 2016. IIRC, the composition of some state supreme courts has shifted as well.
   • weka 1.4

     31 October 2020 at 9:23 am

     If you have any links for the day, let me know and I will put up a discussion post.
     • Andre 1.4.1

       31 October 2020 at 9:41 am

       I haven't got any URLs for any live update sites yet.

       I'll be cycling through fivethirtyeight, cnn, huffpost, realclearpolitics, 270towin, probably thegreenpapers.

       Any post should include this excellent link Peter Haynes has just pointed me to over on his excellent US Election guest post.

       https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/
       • Ad 1.4.1.1

         31 October 2020 at 10:05 am

         Come with me to the Dem party in Auckland
         • Andre 1.4.1.1.1

           31 October 2020 at 10:14 am

           But, but, that could involve interacting with actual people.

           Where is it and when does it start?
           • Ad 1.4.1.1.1.1

             31 October 2020 at 4:37 pm

             If there are still tickets for the Auckland event you will find them here:

             https://www.democratsabroad.org/nz
2. Peter 2

   31 October 2020 at 8:53 am

   An English view:

   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IdnHfYbr1cQ
   • Andre 2.1

     31 October 2020 at 9:15 am

     That's certainly entertaining, and will get a rousing "right-on" from those whose world-view is built around blind Dem-hatred. But it ignores all the ideology issues the Dems are in fact campaigning on. The most prominent and salient in this time of covid is healthcare, and relatedly, simple government competence. There's also immigration, inequality and racial and social justice, climate, trade and international policy, and so on.

     Anyone with a genuine interest in any particular ideological topic can find a wealth of information on the genuine differences between Dems and Repugs with just a few clicks. Unless their interest is just in falsely whining that there's no difference between them all.
   • greywarshark 2.2

     31 October 2020 at 9:32 am

     edit
     Right on Peter J Pie crystallises columns of discussion, drives right through them and carries the arguments off in pithy, passioned diatribe. I'm in his tribe, when he states that it is all about tribal affiliations with no ideology and no policies that will address the real concerns of the ordinary people being shafted by the Head of States.

     The Dems might say they have policies but are they words written, and sounds emitted rather than actual commitments. The people might be aware that things get blocked by the Senate etc. and have given up trying to think rationally.

     What have we got to lose they say, nobody in power tries to live up to a high national standard. That now, is just a longer flagpole; seeing the flag flying is the thing. Because all that is cared about is appearance, a showy flag that is a symbol to the world. Of what – who cares? What is it even, they've forgotten. Dunno about that but have to show the flag – it's the done thing.
   • Ad 2.3

     31 October 2020 at 11:12 am

     He's a vacuous pathetic fool.
     • Andre 2.3.1

       31 October 2020 at 1:25 pm

       He's a comedian parodying a journalist, playing for laughs, and that's all he claims to be. He is good at that, so kinda not a vacuous pathetic fool. He is not, and does not claim to be, a serious political pundit.

       https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/comedy/tom-walker-aka-jonathan-pie-has-a-lot-to-say-20180517-h1067j.html
3. Herodotus. 3

   31 October 2020 at 9:12 am

   Our kōwhai trees are having their worst flowering season, just wondering if others are having the same experience,
   Yet to also sight any Monarch butterflies.
   I could guess that this has something to do with the dry conditions that Auckland is experiencing
   • James Thrace 3.1

     31 October 2020 at 9:36 am

     All good in Wellington. Kowhai were brilliantly flowering the past few weeks. Have seen multiple monarchs fluttering about.
   • greywarshark 3.2

     31 October 2020 at 9:38 am

     Perhaps the spray for killing the marijuana plants drifted to the swan plants that the Monarchs like. Like us they may be having trouble finding a secure home under our continually caring government regime.
   • WeTheBleeple 3.3

     31 October 2020 at 9:40 am

     We have had brilliant flowering in Westmere. And though the wasps took all the monarchs last year I've seen a couple caterpillars outside recently.

     Micro-climatic conditions I'd guess – or maybe species specific? Some kowhai (younger ones) have shed most their leaves. They're the semi-deciduous species but it is a stress response.
   • In Vino 3.4

     31 October 2020 at 9:58 am

     Here in Hamilton I have killed about 10 queen paper wasps around my place, but they are still regularly checking my swan plant, so no chance of monarch butterflies..
     • greywarshark 3.4.1

       31 October 2020 at 10:21 am

       I have heard of putting frost cover or something over the plants but i think that the edges need to be sewn as any chink lets the b…rs in. One couple were raising them as a business with benefits to us all, and they said one wasp had got in one night and had an orgy and killed hundreds of their lovely caterpillars and I guess chrysalises – they were selling them for release at weddings.
   • Macro 3.5

     31 October 2020 at 2:04 pm

     We had the most prolific flowering in our Kowhai this year, and the Kereru, Tui, and Korimako loved it. 🙂

     
4. greywarshark 4

   31 October 2020 at 10:11 am

   https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/123218944/the-auckland-hotel-that-doesnt-exist

   Trip Advisor has tripped up. A determined citizen has managed to get a fake hotel site taken down that has had fake positive reviews on it. TrippingA had 5 star reviews on it. But it doesn't exist.

   The unnamed man saw it and knew that the address is a private house currently under renovation. He contacted TA who replied that the hotel has a website and is legit. Travellers had attempted to stay there and ended up door-knocking neighbours asking where it was. The site had booking and a credit card facility and used pictures and text from other hotels to illustrate it supposed attractions.

   What this responsible man did:

   Contacted TA who replied it was OK.

   Contacted them again, saying he was a local and confirmed there was no hotel there. And gave them rate info search instructions for Auckland to establish its status. More emails from TA repeating assurances about hotel.

   The email address for the hotel 'Emira Plams' didn't work, and the phone number didn't connect, when Stuff called.

   Then the man tried to get the website taken down in NZ. He didn't succeed through the Domain Name Commissioner and CertNZ which said they had no 'powers to block or remove content', but can work with police and the DNC to 'remove the web address'

   Finally on Thursday last the DNC said after investigation 'the domain name has been suspended'. And on Friday it had been taken down.

   CertNZ said to watch out for false sites looking for bad spelling and grammar!

   Trip Advisor said they had been investigating behind the scenes. They had told the complainant that they needed more proof.

   He says that people need to be aware that some information offered online may be false. (It appears that a customer should try to phone, don't know about trying to email as if you get on a fake email list it is a nuisance).

   This man gets my thanks for going through the time-consuming follow-up on this problem, and Stuff for also investigating it. Having done this once, and knowing how to go about it, it is likely to be tried again. And we, the virtual small animals transfixed in the headlights of looming all-powerful technology, need to watch out for our safety, and to support other humans so we don't get squashed.
5. newsense 5

   31 October 2020 at 10:12 am

   So net result of Labour timidity is that ACT are now the dominant intellectual force of social change in New Zealand?

   That is what steals the headline from the landslide?
   • Stuart Munro 5.1

     31 October 2020 at 10:15 am

     For evil to triumph it suffices that the good do nothing.
   • Incognito 5.2

     31 October 2020 at 10:50 pm

     Philosophers with guns.
6. Anker 6

   31 October 2020 at 10:32 am

   • What do you mean re Labours timidity new sense? Are you referring to the cannabis referendum?

   if so how were labour timid?

   The news of the referendum was yesterday’s head line.
   • newsense 6.1

     31 October 2020 at 11:49 am

     What is Labour going to do? 100,000 houses? No, can't be done. 10,000 houses? Who knows? Not a wealth tax, not a cgt, no plastic bags, subside Southland again and what? Just enough oil on any squeaky wheels, but what is their intellectual momentum and heft?

     The takeaway should be Labour's unprecedented victory. But that is as pandemic wardens. They have made little argument for anything else, and dampened down momentum they had in their first term.

     The surging political force this week seems to be ACT. They're currently the one's with a record of the public buying into their ideas- and a 60 percent vote.
     • Foreign waka 6.1.1

       31 October 2020 at 12:10 pm

       Sad isn't it. I have yet to hear anything that identifies some sort of idea that converts into manageable reality for actual people, not just an academic exercise on a spreadsheet.
     • Tricledrown 6.1.2

       31 October 2020 at 7:02 pm

       Votes all coming from National right wingers who couldn't stomach Nationals meltdown
7. Reality 7

   31 October 2020 at 11:49 am

   The pro cannabis people seem to believe it would be happy ever after and it would solve all their issues if it was to be legalised. Just as alcohol is only a short term fix for people, cannabis is presumably similar.

   Just as 18 year olds regard it as a right of passage they can buy alcohol the day they turn 18, 20 year olds being able to buy cannabis would be the same. But apparently young brains until 25 should not be indulging. The pro cannabis lobby gave all the reasons for, but did not highlight risks. They also came over as pretty rabid and extreme, a turn off for many.

   On the other hand, I agree medicinal cannabis should be readily available for those in pain.

   The end of life debate was much better publicised and debated, both for and against. Neither side came over as wild-eyed and over-wrought.
   • weka 7.1

     31 October 2020 at 3:44 pm

     You never drink alcohol?
     • greywarshark 7.1.1

       31 October 2020 at 8:47 pm

       Reality
       That marijuana is criminalised means that people with some in their possession are criminals for doing nothing beyond having some plant material that is hallucinatory. It's entry level into the Court system. It is not right to dismiss the affect of marijuana being illegal. And as for brain development, people shouldn't be playing rugby, the head contact is bad for the players. This worrying about people not having optimum development is a lot of hoo-ha. Normally society doesn't care two hoots about others, they just go all cautious when there is an attempt to smarten the law up – ooh change, all the mights come out to play, I'm so worried about everything, change stresses me so and I'm so important that everything should stop till my head stops spinning.
8. Foreign waka 8

   31 October 2020 at 11:56 am

   Two headlines today stand out:

   "Landlords racing to beat return of LVR" and

   " Here's how high earners might avoid new top tax rate"

   My thoughts to these are that all those well to do people have the audacity to prescribe what the ordinary person on a min to average income is to do to get by on an ever lower income, whilst they already sceaming how to continue fleecing everybody on all ends. The worst part is that there seem to be a certain pride attached to this so as to say everybody who isn't doing the same is a sucker.

   Well, we shouldn't be surprised that we end up with a lawless society having no respect or inclination to contribute and build communities if we so "admire" the scum. In a world of exposure, clicks and likes is the fact to being heralded in the media as something that is "cool" that shapes behaviour.
9. roy cartland 9

   31 October 2020 at 2:11 pm

   So if A/NZ is actually moving toward becoming a republic, what should our head of state's title be? Surely not "President", who [….snore….] presides over an administration [….yawn….] which, in any case, has been devalued to the point of ridiculum.

   I propose a Māori term. As the only country with NZM as an official language, naturally it ought to be.

   Kawana is taken; Rangatira isn't quite right, as it's not really the PM's job to 'bring people together' (or is it?); Kingi and Kuini – no, for obvious colonial reasons; something with a bit more mana:

   Kaitiaki: Guardian, ie of the people/democracy/country/enviro?

   Imagine the whole world, the UN and everyone referring to our head of state in our own language! That's sovereignty, baby. How do we get it happening?
10. Macro 10

    31 October 2020 at 2:14 pm

    Now this is a number plate that one could really relate too.

    
11. Chess Player 11

    31 October 2020 at 6:36 pm

    So, we can now get drunk 7 days a week, and then elect to have ourselves euthanised, but we can't get stoned even once?
    • Tricledrown 11.1

      31 October 2020 at 7:04 pm

      You would have to go to Saudi Arabia.
      • greywarshark 11.1.1

        31 October 2020 at 8:30 pm

        Touche' Tricledrown.
      • Chess Player 11.1.2

        31 October 2020 at 9:32 pm

        Why?
    • Incognito 11.2

      31 October 2020 at 10:56 pm

      If you need palliative care you can get doped up 24/7 until you die. Is that what you want?
      • McFlock 11.2.1

        31 October 2020 at 11:14 pm

        yes please.
        • Incognito 11.2.1.1

          31 October 2020 at 11:45 pm

          Just to make it clear, I was referring to pain management specifically.
12. ScottGN 12

    31 October 2020 at 8:20 pm

    Polls close in Queensland in about 40 minutes after a typically brutal Aussie election campaign.

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