Open mike 31/07/2014

Written By: - Date published: 6:30 am, July 31st, 2014 - 121 comments
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121 comments on “Open mike 31/07/2014”

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  1. Jenny 1
    31 July 2014 at 7:03 am

    Why is there a role, and why do we have to be on it?

    There has been some talk on this blog of electoral reform. Most of the talk has come from a more centrist and therefore more conservative point of view, usually around forcing compulsory voting backed up by punitive fines. (As in Australia).

    I would like to suggest that instead of the punitive path we go in the opposite direction, that we free up the process.

    If you can prove you’re a citizen of the age to vote then you should be allowed to.

    Drivers licence, passport, or other verifiable ID should be enough to allow you to exercise your democratic right.

    Then you just rock up on the day and vote.

    This in fact was one of the original demands of the Egyptian revolution.

    I was moved to reconsider this option by an opinion piece on Stuff.co. nz

    “When 10 per cent of the population doesn’t vote, it’s apathy.” “But you can’t dismiss 30 per cent.”

    I agree.

    We often see criticism of the US voter discrimination that sees black people hit particularly hard by election rules that disadvantage them.

    But New Zealand has similar built in electoral disadvantage. I was reminded of this when at the last local body elections my voting forms didn’t arrive. My partner had received theirs. At first I thought it was because my name appeared later in the alphabet. But when time was almost out I made inquiries and found that my name and details had been removed from the role. I rang the electoral office in Wellington and inquired why, I was told I hadn’t returned the standard enrollment package updating my details. I said, but it plainly says on the letter that if your details haven’t changed don’t send this form back. The person on the other end of the phone agreed that it what it said and that my name should not have been removed from the role, they offered no other reason why I was cut off.

    Anecdotal reports from friends and family revealed a couple more cases of people being mysteriously removed from the electoral role.

    But apart from these odd anomalies and mistakes there is the wider question of how and why many lower paid people are being dumped from the role.
    With the recent end of Housing New Zealand and the removal of state house tenants’ tenure and the imposition of the “90 days notice” of eviction. And the change from housing being a right under Housing New Zealand to a charitable benefit under the control of WINZ, many more lower paid New Zealanders are facing housing insecurity and being moved on more often at the discretion of their landlord just as private rental tenants are. In fact state house tenants now have less rights to their houses than private renters. The over whelming trend is for lower paid renters to change address more often, each time automatically sees them dumped from the electoral role.

    (there is also the idiocy of the mass mailing out of re-enrollment forms to people’s previously last known address. What on earth is this supposed to achieve?)

    There are other reasons that people are not on the role and the writer to stuff mentions them. Another one that wasn’t mentioned is that many people on low incomes are actively avoiding debt collectors, and don’t want their details easily publicly available, should someone be denied the right to vote because of that? Or someone avoiding a bad ex-boyfriend, should that cost them their vote?

    Forget about punitive solutions that blame the victim let’s abolish the intrusive and invasive electoral role and open the electoral mandate to everyone without fear or favour.

    • Awww 1.1
      31 July 2014 at 7:59 am

      YEah, I think if our details could be kept out of a public register then more people would vote.

    • bad12 1.2
      31 July 2014 at 8:02 am

      Well written Jenny, spoiled a little by the use of the word role instead of ROLL in your opening line,

      The major flaw i see in your proposal being if there is no electoral roll how do we arrive at electorate Members of the Parliament,(you presuppose honesty, but, your laissez fairre prescription would allow myself residing in the Rongatai electorate to nip across to the west of the city and vote in the Ohariu electorate),

      Again concerning honesty, would not the voting system have to be computerized, without an electoral roll what is to stop, again say myself, from rolling round all the electorates casting votes as i went,

      i am in favor of compulsory voting, along with the compulsion i believe the school curriculum should be altered to include civics where the reasons why we all should vote are explored and explained…

      • bad12 1.2.1
        31 July 2014 at 10:19 am

        PS Jenny, most of your concerns surrounding the ‘churn’ of citizens moving constantly throughout New Zealand, in the context which you have laid out, could be easily addressed by having WINZ as part of all clients files have a flag show whether the client was or was not enrolled and if not an instant enrollment could occur in this setting,

        Obviously the ability for WINZ computers to ‘talk’ to the computer? which holds the data base of enrollments would be a necessity but would be little different in the current ability for WINZ to match data with other Government data bases…

        • Draco T Bastard 1.2.1.1
          31 July 2014 at 12:20 pm

          When I moved from Dunedin to Auckland I got a letter from the Electoral commission demanding that I update my electoral details. I assume that they got my new address from WINZ.

    • RedBaronCV 1.3
      31 July 2014 at 8:09 am

      I also know people who were dropped off the rolls around Wellington despite not having shifted butt in some years. Looks like the electoral office had a system failure that it has not come clean about so that people can check and re-enrol. OIA perhaps but they really should just front up and let everyone know and reinstate the dropped names.

    • Draco T Bastard 1.4
      31 July 2014 at 8:54 am

      If you can prove you’re a citizen of the age to vote then you should be allowed to.

      That would be what the electoral role is for rather than going through the rigmarole every time you went to a voting station.

      Drivers licence, passport, or other verifiable ID should be enough to allow you to exercise your democratic right.

      The problem with that idea is that not everyone has those things. What you’d need is a citizenship card that everyone has. I’m certainly not averse to such a thing but I’m sure that a lot of people would be.

      • The Al1en 1.4.1
        31 July 2014 at 9:07 am

        “What you’d need is a citizenship card that everyone has. I’m certainly not averse to such a thing but I’m sure that a lot of people would be.”

        The only issues I’d have with a id card is what information was on it and who gets to check it.

        • Draco T Bastard 1.4.1.1
          31 July 2014 at 9:15 am

          I figure it would contain your social security details at a minimum and passport, drivers license when/if you get them.

          • The Al1en 1.4.1.1.1
            31 July 2014 at 9:22 am

            Still no worries with that.

            Playing devil’s advocate, the real concern would be if everyone had cards, a government could impose, for example, restrictions of movement on the populace. Presenting a card to travel inter city could lead to track and trace of all citizens. I know cell phones probably do the same, but not everyone has to have a mobile.

            • McFlock 1.4.1.1.1.1
              31 July 2014 at 2:05 pm

              it’s like drivers licenses: went to photo id (slightly less reliable than written details, but ok), and you suddenly had to carry them all the time. Then it became a traffic duty stat to just stop drivers and ask to see their license.

              And what if your citizen card gets nicked? No vote, or just shedloads of paperwork?

              • The Al1en …
                31 July 2014 at 4:00 pm

                For us who can’t afford the paperwork, barcodes on the forehead or chips under the skin.
                Lucky they won’t have those nasal implant trackers like in Total recall for a few more years yet.

                • Rosie …
                  31 July 2014 at 4:23 pm

                  As an aside, this ones for the kiddies: Microchip bracelets to track behaviour:

                  http://www.stuff.co.nz/technology/60406398/school-plans-microchip-bracelets.html

                  How disturbing is that!

                  • The Al1en …
                    31 July 2014 at 7:11 pm

                    On seeing the headline earlier I thought that’s not a bad idea if it sets off an alarm should kids go out of bounds or worst case scenario, abducted during school hours, but on reading it was a bonus point reward scheme, I couldn’t help wonder what my local school could spend $7000 on to improve outcomes and educations.

                  • Draco T Bastard …
                    31 July 2014 at 9:39 pm

                    That is really disturbing.

                    Teachers would use portable scanners to add points to a student’s online good behaviour chart with a reward when a certain amount of points was accumulated.

                    The teachers could do that without a bracelet. But, really, why are they even considering an online database of a kids behaviour? Nothing online disappears and so the children will have that weight hanging around their necks for the rest of their lives.

        • Te Reo Putake 1.4.1.2
          31 July 2014 at 9:28 am

          RealMe kinda does that already. I found it pretty painless to set up and really useful for getting a new passport and also enrolling at uni.

          https://www.realme.govt.nz/

    • Molly 1.5
      31 July 2014 at 9:13 am

      Also heard an anecdotal report of Maori electoral roll voters turning up at a poll booth, only to be told that they had to go to the one down the street as they didn’t have Maori electorate voting papers. The redirection required another 1km journey.

      I would have thought this would have been against election rules.

    • ianmac 1.6
      31 July 2014 at 9:16 am

      You need a roll because that is how we check that there is one person one vote.

    • Tracey 1.7
      31 July 2014 at 2:40 pm

      I teach tertiary students. Most are aged between 18 and 25.

      Of all those eligible to vote at the 2011 election they said they all voted. Of that group one is probably not going to vote this year. His reason was it doesnt make a difference.

      Of those eligible for the first time this year, half said they dont intend voting. Dont care, doesnt make a difference. None know anything the parties are offering. Some have not received enrolment papers. I directed them to rockenrol.me

      It is not scientific, obviously, but wanted to share

  2. BLiP 2
    31 July 2014 at 7:20 am

    What’s going on in Australia? Wikileaks’ latest revelation about the news black-out concerning the endemic corruption at the Reserve Bank of Australia is bad enough, but not sufficiently reported so far, IMHO, is that it seems those actually responsible for the corruption may escape justice because of it.

    The reason for the censorship as imposed by the Criminal Division of the Supreme Court of Victoria is that coverage may negatively effect Australia’s international relations and may impugn the reputation of specified individuals who are not the subject the charges in the proceedings. That seems entirely disengenuous in that the demonstration of open justice would, in fact, impact positively on Australia while, chances are, the individuals who’s reputations the Court is so concerned about are among those who have benefitted most from the corruption. Its the classic case of the street soldiers taking the fall while the Dons sit back and enjoy the loot.

    For those who have not been following the RBA scandal, the corruption goes back to at least 1998 . At that time, two agents of the RBA visited Iraq in order to sell the regime new technology being employed in the printing of bank notes. The attempt broke both Australian and international law because of the sanctions against doing business with Iraq which were then in place. The RBA was among the statutory bodies reponsible for ensuring that the sanctions were not violated. However, a multi-million dollar deal was cooked up to facillitate the deal by filtering payments through Jordan. At the last moment, the crime was scuttled by diplomats who caught wind of it. While that deal fell through, agents for the RBA went on to sell the new-technology bank notes to countries around the world and, in doing so, sweetened most of the deals with massive bribes paid to officials and politicians. There’s a familiar note to this new development in that among the material being censored is the affadavit of one Gillian Elizabeth Bird, another diplomat and the person just recently appointed to the UN by the Australian government. It would seem she has named names.

    The criminal prosecution of the executives who managed the corruption has been dragging on since 2011. As far as I can see (IANAL) the case has been stalled since August 2012 while the federal government appealed an earlier court decision to allow media coverage and public attendance during the trial. It seems now that the case will go ahead. Meanwhile, the henchman have all had their names already published, yet the main cuplrits and benefactors get to keep their crimes.

    I’m looking at you . . .

    Graeme Thompson
    Mark Bethwaite
    Dick Warburton
    Bob Rankin
    Tony Negus
    Greg Medcraft

    . . . as well as:

    Mohammad Najib Abdul Razak, currently Prime Minister (since 2009) and Finance Minister (since 2008) of Malaysia;

    Abdullah Ahmad Badawi (also known as Pak Lah), a former Prime Minister (2003 – 2009) and Finance Minister (2003 – 2008) of Malaysia;

    Puan Noni (also knows as Ms/Madame Noni, or Nonni), a sister-in-law of Abdullah Ahmad Badawi;

    Mahathir Mohamed, a former Prime Minister (1981 – 2003) and Finance Minister (2001 – 2003) of Malaysia;

    Daim Zainuddin, a former Finance Minister of Malaysia (1984 – 1991; 1999 – 2001);

    Rafidah Aziz, a former Trade Minister of Malaysia (1987 – 2008);

    Hamid Albar, a former Minister for Foreign Affairs (1999 – 2008) and Minister of Home Affairs (2008 – 2009) of Malaysia;

    Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (also known as SBY), currently President of Indonesia (since 2004);

    Megawati Sukarnoputri (also known as Mega), a former President of Indonesia (2001 – 2004) and current leader of the PDI-P political party;

    Laksamana Sukardi, a former Indonesian minister (2001 – 2004; in Megawati Sukarnoputri’s goverment);

    Truong Tan San, currently President of Vietnam (since 2011);

    Nguyen Tan Dung, currently Prime Minister of Vietnam (since 2006);

    Le Duc Thuy, a Former Chairman of the National Financial Supervisory Committee (2007 – 2011) and a former Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam (1999 – 2007); and

    Nong Duc Manh, a former General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam (2001 – 2011).

    • mickysavage 2.1
      31 July 2014 at 8:45 am

      As always thank you BLiP. Fascinating …

    • tc 2.2
      31 July 2014 at 9:54 am

      Yes indeed blip.

      In Oz its dawning on them that they are no better than some of those dodgy regimes they’ve been sneering at with this, especially malaysia who keating had a pop at as PM. Indonesia can do as they please as theres too much oil and gas in that mix for any other action.

      You only have to look at their treatment of refugees which is being blacked out to their msm to see a loss of humanity and empathy across the ditch.

      Among Tonys CT assisted agenda is attack public broadcasting, education and dismantle fund manager reforms to allow the fat cats to keep fleecing contributors on top of a budget shocker stalling in the senate thats been stacked with mining money senators under PUP.

      All cheered on by murdoch amongst others.

  3. miravox 3
    31 July 2014 at 7:38 am

    ‘Pinpoint’ targeting turns to ‘in the vicinity of…’

    There is no excuse .

    “Last night, children were killed as they slept next to their parents on the floor of a classroom in a UN-designated shelter in Gaza. Children killed in their sleep; this is an affront to all of us, a source of universal shame. Today the world stands disgraced.”

  4. phillip ure 4
    31 July 2014 at 7:53 am

    “..No – Teens Don’t Smoke More Pot In Medical Marijuana States.

    A new national report dispels the common prohibitionist argument..”

    (cont..)

    http://www.alternet.org/drugs/no-teens-dont-smoke-more-pot-medical-marijuana-states

  5. Molly 5
    31 July 2014 at 8:55 am

    They must have guidelines at the Herald to achieve this kind of redirect.

    Derek Cheng does a superb job of downplaying criticism for Simon Bridges both with his headline: Spending on oil barons draws criticism, and his opening sentences (which after all, are the ones that show when viewing online).

    “The Green Party is angry that the Government forked out $22,000 on food and drink and $37,000 on luxury accommodation.”

    You wouldn’t know from that leading sentence that the amount discussed was actually $237,000.

    Further confusion is in his breakdown of the spending that lists a variety of expenses except for the largest, $96,000 for “event and project management”.

    Three reasons come to mind for this kind of division:
    1. Skim readers will read the list of expenses and think … that doesn’t seem so much… especially when they are looking for a breakdown of $237,000 and read only $141,000 worth.
    2. The largest expense is also the most questionable – does no-one in Simon Bridges office know how to organise a knees up?
    3. Who provided the “event and project management”? Is this why Derek Cheng put this expense in the prose, rather than bullet point?

    • bad12 5.1
      31 July 2014 at 9:40 am

      Molly ”event and project management” was probably provided by contracting out the task, this could also be termed ”Phone a friend”…

    • Draco T Bastard 6.1
      31 July 2014 at 12:30 pm

      I figured that employers in NZ with our present high unemployment and the government and WINZ pushing people to apply for 5 plus jobs a day would actually be getting really pissed off with applicants. Especially the applicants that turned up on their doorstep demanding an interview which would be happening because WINZ pushes people to get out there and door knock.

  7. Puckish Rogue 7
    31 July 2014 at 10:13 am

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11301700

    • Yes! This is the type of person we need more of in parliament
    • Clemgeopin 7.1
      31 July 2014 at 10:25 am

      From the article, here is the disturbing bit:

      “The Herald understands Mr Mark is being courted both as a list candidate and as a potential successor to leader Winston Peters, in part because of his good relationship with National as the two parties consider a potential post-election deal’

      His good relationship with National as the two parties consider a potential post-election deal?

      BUGGER THAT!

      P.S:
      Winston, I doubt if my aunt will vote NZF first now. NZF-Last now UNLESS it was just a mischief making article by a spinalist!

      • Puckish Rogue 7.1.1
        31 July 2014 at 10:36 am

        Be that as it may Ron Marks a good man, I’d consider giving NZFirst my party vote if he was leader

        • phillip ure 7.1.1.1
          31 July 2014 at 10:45 am

          u wd vote for attilla the hun..there..p.r..

          ..if he came back and promised u some more more neo-lib/ayn rand..

          ..eh..?

          ..it’s been so good to/for you..eh..?..that ‘neo-lib/ayn rand’..

        • Draco T Bastard 7.1.1.2
          31 July 2014 at 12:31 pm

          Which is all we really need to know that he’s the last person we need in parliament.

      • Tiger Mountain 7.1.2
        31 July 2014 at 10:40 am

        Winston needs to come clean for all concerned, Key rubbed his nose in it well and truly in 2008 but his real home remains National.

        nice to have for the left;
        Winston First 4.8%–please voters
        Colonservatives–less than Winston around 3 % please voters

        • Puckish Rogue 7.1.2.1
          31 July 2014 at 12:28 pm

          wow doesn’t take long for the knives to come out, wasn’t so long ago the Left were claiming Winstonfirst as part of their voting bloc…

          For what is worth the left put up a valient attmpt but theres no shame in being beaten by a superior, more popular team, you lot on the left did your best and you should be proud of that

          • Clemgeopin 7.1.2.1.1
            31 July 2014 at 1:55 pm

            Beaten?
            Puck you, you silly man! Has the election campaign begun in earnest yet? The election is on Sept 20 dork. Seven weeks away. I would like to see your face on the night of Sept 20 when you and the RWNJobs will realise that Key/National will not be in a position to form a government at all! There WILL be a Labour led coalition government next. Mark my words, Rogue!

        • nadis 7.1.2.2
          31 July 2014 at 2:18 pm

          Even Winston wasting 4.999% of the vote wont get labour over the line. Lets assume the following party votes – not my view but kind of an average of what a lot of commentators on this site are suggesting/hoping for and consistent-ish with polls:

          Nats 47%
          Lab 30%
          Greens 13%
          NZ1 4.999%
          IMP 4% (with 1 electorate seat)
          Other minors 1%

          Dunne and Act and MP win 1 seat with essentially 0% party vote.

          Equating this to seats you get:

          Nats: 60 seats
          Dunne: 1 seat
          Act: 1 seat
          MP: 1 seat
          Right= 63 seats

          Labour: 38 seats
          Greens: 17 seats
          IMP: 5 seats
          Left= 60 seats

          More wasted vote means it gets easier for national – look what happens if national stays at 47% but the conservatives get 4%.

          The vote isn’t really about getting labour up to 30% or 35% its more about getting the national share down to 45% or less – anything above 46-47% then Nats likely to win because of three overhang seats. And if Winston gets in he’ll most likely go with National because of his allergy to the greens and IMP which makes the right bloc even bigger. At 5% on the above numbers he’d take 3 seats from national, 2 from labour, 1 from greens. That would also make Winston Peters our next treasurer or minister of foreign affairs.

          • swordfish 7.1.2.2.1
            31 July 2014 at 7:38 pm

            Interesting and original analysis, nadis. You’ve put a bit of work and thought into this. And quite right about the implications of a higher wasted vote. Nicely done.

      • phillip ure 7.1.3
        31 July 2014 at 10:53 am

        i really think that peters is underestimating the number who voted for him last time..

        ..because there was no chance of him propping up national..

        ..that certainty is now gone…

        ..a vote for peters cd well be a vote for key….(don’t forget..peters is a tory..)

        ..lab/grns/int-mana are the only ‘safe’-votes for anyone desiring change from what is happening now…

        ..and i think it is very important this message/warning is repeated often in the run up to the election..

        (..we wouldn’t want peters getting away with running a con-job on unsuspecting progressive voters…eh..?..)

        ..especially those of that persuasion who voted for peters last time..

        ..when that non-national guarantee was firmly in place…

        ..they must be warned off voting for him again..

      • bad12 7.1.4
        31 July 2014 at 11:09 am

        Slippery the Prime Minister’s ”ruling out” of doing an electorate deal with Colon and the Conservatives is either a gamble that National believe they have the numbers to be able to form the next Government post-election,

        Or, National have some sense of surety that NZFirst will opt after the election to enter a coalition with National rather than Labour/Green,

        That of course presupposes that NZFirst will actually attain the 5% of party vote necessary, and, on this point i have some pretty large doubts,

        i find that article in Granny today to be rather odd to say the least, Peter’s has been at His usual pains to attempt to hide any preference from the electorate, snake-oil salesmanship on display to the max where voters are invited to cast a ballot on blind faith as if there were no left nor right existing in the political realm,

        Pointing out to its readers the ‘appearance’ that some form of deal has already been struck between NZFirst and National has the ability to do as much damage to NZFirst’s vote as any gains made if as it would seem the intention was to attract floating ‘soft’ right wing votes to that parties cause,

        Tactical voters from 2011, an unmeasured number who only voted NZFirst last election as an ambit to stymie ‘National Governing alone’ with the assurance of the PM that that party was ‘ruled out’ will not be voting NZFirst again in 2014,

        Such an article, the unwritten text saying that Winston Peters is being less than honest with His ‘deals only considered after the vote’ has the ability to scare off from NZFirst prior refugees from Labour with a wish, held by many within Labour as well, for a coalition which the party enjoyed with the previous Helen Clark Government,

        Along with the Labour refugees, the 2011 Tactical vote, and, a small % of vote that Colons Conservatives have managed to chisel from NZFirst i am picking a result for Peters and company that matches the 2008 result, so near yet so far, 4.5% on election night…

        • Clemgeopin 7.1.4.1
          31 July 2014 at 12:23 pm

          Not forgetting that some of the very old oldies from 2008 would sadly be no more now. RIP.

          • bad12 7.1.4.1.1
            31 July 2014 at 2:45 pm

            Interestingly, or not, i have long spelled out here at the Standard my opposition to the Labour policy surrounding the raising of the age of entitlement to superannuation,but, even tho i oppose such with some fervor i would never consider voting for NZFirst to in effect stymie this aspect of Labour policy,

            Having said that i know my mother, a lifelong Labour voter did just that, and, far from being comfortably tucked up in their boxes a lot of that particular demographic are now comfortably retired enjoying the small benefits of their gold cards,

            As an aside, someone a few days ago produced a comment which strongly intimated that there has been flexibility introduced to the policy which addresses some of the concerns surrounding manual workers and those who become to sick to work at a late age,

            The underlying Neo-liberalism inherent in this policy cannot tho be escaped especially in light of the recent David Parker comment hinting at future tax cutting by a Labour Government,

            Obviously as i mention above there are within the Labour Caucus and the support base those who pine for the comfort of a Labour/NZFirst coalition which largely sidelines the Greens with some medium sized concessions,

            Just as obviously there are those among us who would find another Government of this vein anathema to achieving any ‘real’ gains in repairing the 30 odd years of damage such neo-liberal ideology has inflicted upon the body of society,

            Thus the marriage of InternetMana has been seen as a masterstroke of some genius and obviously, by the size of the crowds at the 2 roadshows so far, that view is not confined simply to the pages of the Standard,

            If all that DotCom gets to take out of the 2014 election is a ”take that you prick” directed at Slippery the Prime Minister the same as the collective evidence the DotCom’s waved John Banks’s way then i am sure He will be well pleased,

            For the harder edge of the left tho, InternetMana might be the gift that just keeps on giving, more MPs’ in the House means far more exposure for the message along with the all important ability to build the Party base,

            And, we now have a choice, a large whiff if you will of the chance to in effect leverage the whole political discourse to the left, these numbers by themselves while hardly screaming ”impressive”, Labour 33%, Green 12%, InternetMana 5% when addition is applied as an equation without equivocation simply say 50%,

            Lets do it….

        • nadis 7.1.4.2
          31 July 2014 at 2:27 pm

          unless labour + NZ first is a majortiy, labour can’t rely on Winston. He will not go into a coalition that contains the greens and to suggest he might is wishful thinking.

          • You_Fool 7.1.4.2.1
            31 July 2014 at 3:30 pm

            Whilst I agree with you that Winston will probably try and avoid the Greens; he hasn’t actually ruled it out this time (unlike previous elections) so there is the possibility that he might do a deal that involved the Greens, though obviously with some concessions.

            That said if the Greens get over 2x Winston’s vote (as is quite likely) then Winston might just have to suck it up and live with some Green policy (which is probably why he hasn’t ruled them out.) Yes he could go with National instead, but that appears to be an unholy union of about 5 parties, albeit with Winston being the biggest by far of the coalition partners, and the others being National sock puppets. I don’t think that Winston will like that option much either. He would jump into a Nat+NZF >50% coalition (with the dregs giving the breathing room) if the alternative was Lab + Green + NZF >50% but I personally don’t think that either option will be on the table. the 50% on either side is going to require the minors (with Winston as their king)

            • bad12 7.1.4.2.1.1
              31 July 2014 at 3:36 pm

              Today’s Roy Morgan says that you are, i invite you to guess the rest…(you obviously haven’t read the Ron Marks remarks attributed to Him in today’s Granny Herald either)…

              • You_Fool …
                31 July 2014 at 4:10 pm

                I try to avoid the Herald ever since it has stopped being a useful source of news and more a propaganda tool. I have now read them, and read Winston’s rebuttal/denial. Sure it may all be smoke and mirrors, but it looks more like to me a play to pull in some Nat-soft voters to give Winnie more of a say in any post election deals. As I say he is looking at being third fiddle in a left government, but that still may be more palatable to him than being top cat in the hodge-podge of rats and mice that a right coalition might be. Making a play to drag in some soft Nat voters strengthens his position on both sides post-election. Winston needs to be closer to 10% to be a serious player in a Left coalition, and being ~10% with national at 40 works for him too. In fact argument can be made that at this juncture for him to have the most power post election he needs to take National voters whilst hoping for a continued resurgence of labour voting. Winston would want to be the Sole kingmaker (like 96) not one among many (even if it is the biggest among many)

                My point was that Winnie also hasn’t ruled out being with the Greens post-election; which I assume he hasn’t ruled out because his political nous has talked to him and said that such a stance might lose him votes. Plausible deniability on a deal with National (which is highly likely to not have happened as any leak of an actual deal ruins the play) means a drop in left voters but a rise in right voters, hopefully more than he loses. This strengthens Labour and NZF and weakens Nat – which puts NZF in a stronger position post-election.

                Winston knows how to play the NZ electorate like a harp

                • bad12 …
                  31 July 2014 at 4:41 pm

                  The fact that you think Winston can graft 10% of the vote from the point of the latest Roy Morgan which ascribes to NZFirst 5% of that vote suggests you do not do it very well and again as previously intimated, you are (fill in gap),

                  If we ascribe to Winston that 5% of the Roy Morgan what then of Colons Conservatives, do you think that their 2.7% from the last election when they had NO electorate deal with Slippery the Prime Minister will have simply evaporated because the PM has said No Deal this time round,

                  Treated to a miserly 1% by the latest Roy Morgan i would suggest considering the millions spent by the Conservatives this election will be considerably more than were spent at the 2011 contest that Colon and the moon-beam crowd will pull at least the same amount of the vote as they did in 2011,

                  Part of that vote will be chiseled from the NZFirst %, the other part from National, tough for Winston, if that 5% is correct in terms of current support then i would suggest that Colon the Conservative, in a glorious act of revenge upon Slippery the PM will blow NZFirst’s electoral chances with a side dish of leaving the National Party without a dance partner for the next waltz, and thus a very large party in opposition…

            • nadis 7.1.4.2.1.2
              31 July 2014 at 3:42 pm

              you’ve forgotten Winstons third option which is to go with neither party. Just because he wont go with National means he has to go with Labour/Greens/IMP.

  8. Bearded Git 8
    31 July 2014 at 10:37 am

    McCully is incompetent or lying (or both). Either way he should resign-see this on the (alleged) Malaysian rape case:

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11301663

  9. phillip ure 9
    31 July 2014 at 10:40 am

    need/want encrypted phone calls on yr i-phone..?

    http://boingboing.net/2014/07/30/ios-app-signal-promises-free.html

    the app is open-source/free…

  10. Mary 10
    31 July 2014 at 11:24 am

    If this is an indication of where Whyte wants to take things then we’re going to need a bit more than Susan Devoy talking about things she doesn’t understand:

    “She went on to say that treating everyone exactly the same, as Dr Whyte was arguing for, “will not necessarily make everyone exactly the same and anyone who thinks so is incredibly naive”.”

    It’s almost as if Devoy’s saying she thinks it would be good if everyone were the same just that it’s a pretty hard thing to achieve. Pretty lightweight stuff. Whyte’s a piece of work. Judith Collins will be thinking Devoy’s appointment strikes the perfect balance.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11301695

    • Tracey 10.1
      31 July 2014 at 4:13 pm

      I disagree. I think she was saying in order for everyone to be equal you have to give some folks assistance to get there

      • greywarbler 10.1.1
        31 July 2014 at 4:51 pm

        @Tracey 4.13
        That shows a generous and trusting spirit Tracey about Susan Devoy Race Relations Commissioner. I hope you are right.

        And by the way – why is Jamie Whyte bald like wotsname – Rodney Hide? Is it a rule that you have to be a skinhead in the ACT enclave?

      • Murray Olsen 10.1.2
        1 August 2014 at 1:41 am

        I think she was too, Tracey. I also suspect she didn’t realise what she was saying, with her speech having been written by her staff.

        • Mary 10.1.2.1
          1 August 2014 at 2:01 pm

          So do you think Devoy’s up to the task of dealing with the sort of evil manipulation Whyte and his mates are all about? That was my point.

  11. swordfish 11
    31 July 2014 at 12:23 pm

    Finkelstein on Gaza: Ceasefire or Surrender

  13. Poission 13
    31 July 2014 at 12:42 pm

    Argentina defaults on sovereign debt.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-30/argentina-defaults-according-to-s-p-as-debt-meetings-continue.html

    the behavior and pseudo jurisdiction of US courts suggest the running of extortion rackets for companies trading in US dollars

    http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21606279-french-bank-deserved-clobbering-americas-legal-system-looks-extortion

    • nadis 13.1
      31 July 2014 at 1:48 pm

      Argentina chose to borrow under US law. No-one held a gun to their head.

      BNP admitted to deliberately and wilfully circumventing US sanctions. If there is one thing to get the Feds excited it is deliberately trading with terrorist states or entities (as defined by the USG).

      The US is being quite even-handed, they are extracting multi-billion dollar fines from every bank they can, domestic or foreign without discrimination. Good on them. Think of it as a thank-you from the banks for the bailout (both directly and via liquidity measures) they have received from the USG since 2008.

      • Colonial Viper 13.1.1
        2 August 2014 at 1:13 am

        Argentina chose to borrow under US law. No-one held a gun to their head.

        A statement which totally ignores the long long history of the USA holding guns to the heads of South American governments who choose not to fit in with the world financial and central banking system.

        Forcing down the Ecaudorean president’s plane over European air space last year was just another example.

        Fortunately, this kind of move by the USA simply accelerates the move away from the USD denominated financial system which I suggest is in its final 10 years of dominance right now.

  14. mickysavage 14
    31 July 2014 at 2:54 pm

    Latest Roy Morgan …

    “Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a large fall in support for National (46%, down 5% – the lowest since May) now with a significantly reduced lead over a potential Labour/Greens alliance (42%, up 3.5%) just two months before the New Zealand Election on September 20.

    Support for Key’s Coalition partners has changed little overall with the Maori Party 1.5% (up 0.5%), Act NZ (0.5%, unchanged) and United Future 0.5% (unchanged).

    Support for the Labour Party is 30% (up 6.5%), but the Greens are down 3% to 12%. Potential ‘king-makers’ NZ First is 5% (down 1%), the Internet-Mana Party alliance is 2.5% (up 1%). Support for the Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 1% (up 1%).”

    Just one poll I know …

    http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5711-roy-morgan-new-zealand-voting-intention-july-31-2014-201407310230

    • Chooky 14.1
      31 July 2014 at 3:05 pm

      great news!…the NACTS are on the slippery slidey slope now!….they are going to lose!

      ….and this would explain all the right wing trolls hanging around and having a go for no good reason yesterday and today…

    • infused 14.2
      31 July 2014 at 3:07 pm

      Rouge.

    • phillip ure 14.3
      31 July 2014 at 5:00 pm

      and that polling will have been done before this latest round of nat fuck-ups..

      ..and nice to see act on 0.5%..

      ..and conservatives on 1%..

      ..and if banks gets a discharge without conviction 2morrow..

      ..i am presuming the howls of outrage will also not do good things to national/the rights’ poll-ratings..

  15. Matthew Hooton 15
    31 July 2014 at 2:55 pm

    Like I’ve always said, election is too close to call: http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5711-roy-morgan-new-zealand-voting-intention-july-31-2014-201407310230

    National is now 10 points lower in the polls than it was 51 days before 2011 election.

    • McFlock 15.1
      31 July 2014 at 3:08 pm

      lol
      Like you’ve always said? but but but ipredict…

      • Matthew Hooton 15.1.1
        31 July 2014 at 3:11 pm

        iPredict has always indicated too close to call too.

        • You_Fool 15.1.1.1
          31 July 2014 at 3:40 pm

          Then why do plenty of RWNJ commentators on here like to say that ipredict shows a definite NAT government after the next election?

        • McFlock 15.1.1.2
          31 July 2014 at 3:45 pm

          really? fisi must have been fibbing. There’s a surprise.

          • phillip ure 15.1.1.2.1
            31 July 2014 at 5:15 pm

            hooton has repeatedly said that/poured that bucket of reality over national..(except then it was six points below where they were last time..10% behind is a serious amount/lag..)

            ..and when watching questiontime i like reading the backbenchers’ faces…

            ..and aside from the end-of-term hijinks today..

            ..they have this week looking very very glum..

            ..this observation cheered me to some degree..

            (..as..right or wrong.. i read it as bad news internal-polling..or the like..)

            ..and i hafta say..that as a political-junkie..while ideologically i wd like more certainty to what i want..this is the most cliff-hanging/fascinating election i can remember..

            ..the different permutations churn around and around..

            ..and the packed halls for internet-mana meetings cheer me no end..

            ..with the certainty they will well out-perform the ‘experts’/pundits opinions..bedding further in day-by-day..

            ..harre/sykes/minto in parliament…

            (doesn’t that have a pleasant ring to it..?..)

    • Tracey 15.2
      31 July 2014 at 3:21 pm

      I wonder if this poll reflects Nationals daily polling and explains Key making overtures in Winnie’s direction.

      • Puckish Rogue 15.2.1
        31 July 2014 at 3:27 pm

        National + Winston = 51% + a vote each from Dunne and Act = good for NZ 🙂

        • mickysavage 15.2.1.1
          31 July 2014 at 3:29 pm

          How do you feel about National forming a coalition with Winston?

          • Tracey 15.2.1.1.1
            31 July 2014 at 3:36 pm

            He is whatever it takes guy. He doesnt care that key flip flops more than a schnapper on the poop deck

          • Puckish Rogue 15.2.1.1.2
            31 July 2014 at 4:05 pm

            To be honest not all that good but if it keeps the GIMPs (note that doesn’t include Labour) away from the treasury benches its the price you have to pay in an MMP environment

            • phillip ure 15.2.1.1.2.1
              31 July 2014 at 6:06 pm

              which meaning were you using..?

              “.. gimp

              (1) a derrogatory term for someone that is disabled or has a medicial problem that results in physical impairment.

              (2) An insult implying that someone is incompetent, stupid, etc. Can also be used to imply that the person is uncool or can’t/won’t do what everyone else is doing.

              (3) A sex slave or submissive, usually male, as popularlized by the movie Pulp Fiction.”

              ..you class act you..eh…?

  16. adam 16
    31 July 2014 at 3:02 pm

    Just got sent this link and love it. Oh and he is not threatening a libel case – Seems some politicians can take a joke.

    http://catsthatlooklikedavidcunliffe.tumblr.com/

  17. ianmac 17
    31 July 2014 at 3:30 pm

    After the final question at QT David Shearer asked for leave to table an email which showed that maybe McCulley had mislead the House over the timing of that Diplomat email. David gave just that it was an email relating to….. I can only guess that it has great significance to the saga but… House has just risen so no access to recourse?

  18. Minarch 18
    31 July 2014 at 4:49 pm

    Rogue bankers face bonus clawback – even if they have spent the money

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2711473/About-time-Rogue-bankers-face-bonus-clawback-spent-money.html#ixzz391CTQJqC

    +Holding individuals to account is a key component of our job’ says Bank of England deputy governor
    + Some executives could find they have to pay back money after 10 years
    + Other measures being considered include scrapping ‘golden hello’ bonuses for senior executives
    +Britain has also already passed a law making reckless behaviour by bankers a criminal act punishable by up to seven years in prison.

    • tricledrown 18.1
      1 August 2014 at 1:00 am

      Hopefully 15 years then Brain Fade Key will have to pay back his ill gotten millions earned by selling false interest rates as head of Merrill Lynch currency trades . insider trading was at its peak when Brain Fade Key has conveniently forgotten how rotten Merrill Lynch was while he was their!

  19. phillip ure 19
    31 July 2014 at 5:51 pm

    and kennedy graham struck exactly the right note in his speaking to his motion on gaza..

    ..i actually think graham wd make a brilliant speaker..

    ..he wouldn’t take no shit..from anyone..

    ..he wd run a very tight ship..

    ..and he wd be able to put that death-stare of his that he has so perfected –

    • to some good use..

    ..and at the very least..in the next parliament he shd at least be the speaker who sits in for the speaker..

    ..i can’t think of anyone doing a better job..

  20. thor42 20
    31 July 2014 at 7:25 pm

    Oh dear.

    Hamas has posted two videos that completely contradict each other.

    Video one – “Human shields have proven effective in Gaza” –

    Video two – Hamas denies using human shields in Gaza –

    And just as a bonus – a third UNRWA-run school has been found to be storing rockets……..
    http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2014/07/29/THIRD-Rocket-Arsenal-Found-At-UN-School-In-Gaza

    • Te Reo Putake 20.1
      31 July 2014 at 7:34 pm

      Wow, that changes everything. Thanks, Thor42, I’m convinced. You know what’s really bad? Hamas forcing those babies to throw themselves in front of peaceful Israeli rockets. The bastards.

    • miravox 20.2
      31 July 2014 at 7:57 pm

      Lucky the Israelis don’t need to use vacant facilities to store weapons that kill civilians by the hundreds. They have the U.S. to do that for them.

      The United States issued a firm condemnation of the shelling of a United Nations school in Gaza that killed at least 16 Palestinians on Wednesday, but also confirmed it restocked Israel’s dwindling supplies of ammunition….

      The Israeli military requested the addition ammunition on 20 July . The US defense department approved the sale three days later, Kirby said.

      Two of the requested munitions were sourced from a secret stockpile the US keeps in Israel for emergencies. White House approval was not required to release the weaponry War Reserve Stockpile Ammunition-Israel (WRSA-I)

    • joe90 20.3
      31 July 2014 at 8:19 pm

      Shouldn’t you be over at colonel bunnies place with the other deluded old men talking about ni-CLANG’s in the whitehouse ignoring constutional shit and molon labe shit and shooting shit and shit and stuff…

    • Murray Olsen 20.4
      1 August 2014 at 1:55 am

      I’m so happy for you. You must save heaps on Viagra when you can watch hospitals being bombed and kids being killed on youtube. You could even spend the money you save for a ticket to the Sderot cinema.

  21. marty mars 21
    31 July 2014 at 7:35 pm

    Come and see what the buzz is around the IMP, come and see for yourself.

    The Internet MANA roadtrip is coming to the mainland!

    Invite your friends to come along and hear our vision for the future of New Zealand:

    WED AUG 6th | NELSON, 6PM
    Kowhai Lounge, H Block, Malborough Institute of Technology, 322 Hardy St, Nelson
    https://www.facebook.com/events/259499637572802/?ref=5

    THURS 7th | CHRISTCHURCH, 7PM
    Cardboard Cathedral, 234 Hereford St, Christchurch 8011
    https://www.facebook.com/events/677163119027210/?ref=5

    SUN 10th | QUEENSTOWN, 5PM
    Whakatipu High School Hall, 68 Fryer St, Boydtown, Queenstown.
    https://www.facebook.com/events/301096936739539/?ref=5

    MON 11th | INVERCARGILL, 6PM
    Southland Boys High School Hall, 181 Herbert St, Invercargill
    https://www.facebook.com/events/825903987443053/?ref=5

    TUES 12th | DUNEDIN, 6PM
    Level 2A, Forsyth Barr Stadium, 130 Anzac Avenue, Dunedin, 9016
    https://www.facebook.com/events/1442875762658054/?ref=5

    WED 13th | TIMARU, 6PM
    Pleasant Point Town Hall,
    https://www.facebook.com/events/1488401341398432/?ref=5

    THURS 14th | BLENHEIM, 6PM
    Wisheart Function Room, Civic Theatre, 18 Arthur St, Blenheim 7201
    https://www.facebook.com/events/342761245875969/?ref=5

    • ianmac 21.1
      31 July 2014 at 9:18 pm

      Wow Marty. Even in Blenheim on 14th. Will go and see if they sway my allegiance.

      • marty mars 21.1.1
        31 July 2014 at 9:41 pm

        Good on you ianmac – Pretty extensive roadshow although the Westcoast is missing out it seems – never mind, I’m going to Nelson – I wonder if any other standardistas will be there.

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