Oops.

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1. Chemist Peter 1

   11 April 2008 at 10:21 pm

   still on the labour ISP then?

   [lprent:
   a. Labour doesn’t run an ISP as far as I’m aware.
   b. Don’t you keep up? The Standard moved off some resources donated to the NZLP months ago.
   c. I can see why you got banned last? week.
   d. And I remember why I stuck you in moderation. You didn’t observe the ban.
   e. You’re probably aware that the topic annoys me, seems like a rather stupid statement to make bearing in mind my usual reactions.]
2. lprent 2

   11 April 2008 at 10:24 pm

   OK – found the daylight saving. It was in the wordpress options.
3. IrishBill 3

   11 April 2008 at 10:44 pm

   Yeah, I’m sick of that too. I’m banning CP until June 1st. Wouldn’t want to be you. Really, really wouldn’t.
4. higherstandard 4

   12 April 2008 at 11:47 am

   Are all the Standard’s Publishers off at the Labour party conference today ?

   Seems awfully quiet !
5. outofbed 5

   12 April 2008 at 1:16 pm

   yeah HS on a dsy when Ray Morgan poll
   http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2008/4285/
   shows that the current poll show that the numbers are there for a
   Lab /Green/ Maori Government
6. higherstandard 6

   12 April 2008 at 3:32 pm

   I think you’re stretching a bit OOB

   Besides the only poll that matters is on election day. I think Morgan sums up the results of this poll pretty well though.

   “Support for Helen Clark’s Government remains weak as this latest Morgan Poll clearly shows. Despite the National Party losing some momentum in recent weeks, the Government has been unable to gain the initiative for itself in any meaningful way.

   “The strong pick-up in Greens support comes on the back of the international success of Earth Hour, on Saturday March 29. The huge coverage given to the event significantly raised environmental awareness amongst New Zealanders and the increase in support for the Greens is strong evidence of its success.

   “As the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating shows, there have been record falls in New Zealander’s Consumer Confidence in recent weeks as high interest rates, increasing energy costs and general bad news from all angles have conspired to increase the pressure on the average New Zealander.

   “As the year progresses, it will not get any easier for Helen Clark and her tired Government to bridge the gap that the National Party has held consistently for over a year. The Government needs to get on the front foot before worsening economic news condemns the Labour Party to Electoral defeat later in the year.’
7. burt 7

   12 April 2008 at 3:50 pm

   DPF fisks Clark’s Clarks claims inspired by Rudd “come from behind’ win

   Miss Clark says Labour is looking closely at the victory by the Australian Labor Party last November, which come from behind for a comfortable win. The Prime Minister told delegates those elections show an incumbent Government does not have to be at a disadvantage going for a fourth term.

   As DPF points out, Helen Clark really needs to stop just making stuff up because it sounds good.
8. Matthew Pilott 8

   12 April 2008 at 5:35 pm

   I was lost witout you guys yesterday 🙁

   [lprent: sorry – my fault. I was distracted. Also I hadn’t organized a backup person for service failures]
9. Dan 9

   12 April 2008 at 5:40 pm

   The rather worn “tired Government” phrase surfaces in the Morgan poll. Labour needs to challenge such doubtful phrases with a repetition of the considerable achievements of the last nine years. So far the only real policy the Nats have come out with is “that it is time for a change”!! Why should pollsters repeat the National slogan?
   I look at the front bench for National and ask who looks tired. Lockwood, McCully, Smith….. and the list goes on. There main hope Key has feet of clay. They have lost Katherine Rich who was fed up with the old guard who dream of Ruth Richardson. They dream of asset sales and the privatisation of education and health. Who looks tired?
   I am impressed by the calibre of the new Labour people, and wait with anticipation for Shane Jones to be given a higher profile. He would whitewash anything the Nats put up. The Morgan poll understates the move to the left. The disallusionment with Key can only accelerate the gains to the left.
10. lprent 10

    12 April 2008 at 6:00 pm

    I am. More importantly I left the power supply for the laptop at home, so it is harder to get online.

    Don’t know about the editors since I couldn’t recognise them if I saw them.

    Maybe there were people at the demo’s 🙂
11. outofbed 11

    12 April 2008 at 6:43 pm

    HS according to the mmp calculator
    http://www.elections.org.nz/calculator/
    I made the assumption that the Mp would win all 7 seats 🙂
    Act New Zealand 1.50% 2
    Green Party 9.00% 11
    Jim AndertoProgressive 0.50% 1
    Labour Party 34.50% 43
    Maori Party 3.00% 7
    National Party 47.00% 58
    United Future 0.50% 1
12. IrishBill 12

    12 April 2008 at 7:04 pm

    Maybe there were people at the demo’s

    Didn’t go to the Demo but I would endorse their view (if not their actions) 100%. The “terrorism” law is simply a sop to right-wing US interests and should be abolished and from what I’ve seen of the evidence for the search warrants there is no way these people should still have charges against them (especially the Wellington activists).
13. higherstandard 13

    12 April 2008 at 8:59 pm

    oob

    Much as we all hate to admit it Winston will by hook or by crook be back. I would also be astounded if the Greens get 9% of the vote.
14. Leftie 14

    12 April 2008 at 9:11 pm

    Despite all the doom and gloom the Labour Party is still polling well. It must frustrate the Right that Labour, at this point, has lost little if any support.
    The Labour Party can proudly campaign on its achievements in Government. If all the predictions are true from the Right (winning this election), I wonder if National could do the same after a predicted period in Government? The facts speak for themselves and if they (National) take the path of the 90s they will get hammered on these blogs.
15. outofbed 15

    13 April 2008 at 9:36 am

    I would also be astounded if the Greens get 9% of the vote.

    and I would be astounded if they didn’t

    I think or hope that winnine will get just under 5%
    Then the Nats can have UF and Act,
    Lab Greens and Moari
    seems a likely divvy up to me
    🙂
16. higherstandard 16

    13 April 2008 at 10:15 am

    OOB

    I would not bank on the support of the Maori Party – they will undoubtedly seek feedback from their electorates but I could see them going either way or even taking a position outside of an agreement and supporting either side on confidence and supply.
17. Pascal's bookie 17

    13 April 2008 at 1:41 pm

    HS what policies do you think the MP will demand from the Tories in return for a C and S agreement?
18. higherstandard 18

    13 April 2008 at 1:48 pm

    PB

    I’d think retention of Maori seats would be a definite, apart from that no idea.

    I can’t see why either of the main parties shouldn’t offer the Maori Party complete control of the Maori affairs portfolio.
19. burt 19

    13 April 2008 at 2:10 pm

    higherstandard

    I can’t see why either of the main parties shouldn’t offer the Maori Party complete control of the Maori affairs portfolio.

    Well for a start, as you said they are main parties. Major parties don’t like sharing their sand pits, thats why they campaign “Two ticks Labour” in an effort to get unfettered control of the reigns.

    Imagine Labour giving NZ1 complete control of immigration policy simply because it’s one of the portfolio areas they have strong views about.

    This is the reason why I think politics in NZ would be a lot more balanced and a lot less a like a giant surrounded by healthy dwarfs. They run around and get some things done but they sure don’t change the overall direction the giant decides to travel in. IMHO Labour and National at about 35 seats each would be about ideal.
20. outofbed 20

    13 April 2008 at 2:11 pm

    But Key has ruled the retention of the Maori seats out,
    And as that is actually one of only the very few thing he has been
    unequivocal about. Would it not be strange for him to back down on that or the Moari party to believe him?

    They would be better to offer the Greens the enviroment and transport ministries
    🙂
21. Pascal's bookie 21

    13 April 2008 at 2:12 pm

    Fair enough. Retention will not be enough for the Maori seats however. What would they gain? The status quo that is only under threat from a National government. So while you are right to say that it would be a definate, it would only be so in the same way that not abolishing the treaty or something would be a definate.

    The MP wants the seats to be entrenched, removing, for all practicle purposes, the ability of a govt to repeal them at leisure. The other issues that they will want to see movement on are constitutional. Tino rangitiratanga stuff that will probably involve restructuring the courts, and funding streams fro health education and welfare.

    http://www.maoriparty.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=61&Itemid=44

    1. CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGE

    The Maori Party stands for Te Tiriti o Waitangi/Treaty of Waitangi providing the base for constitutional change in our nation so that shared governance becomes a reality.

    The present constitutional system does not, and cannot meet or satisfy the needs of Maori from the perspective of our rights as indigenous people.

    Constitutional change would focus on giving effect to Articles 1 and 2 of Te Tiriti/Treaty in a manner that reconciles Maori rights to exercise tino rangatiratanga with the need for kawanatanga. This would mean that the exercise of governance would be shared between the 2 Tiriti/Treaty partners, Tangata Whenua and the Crown.
22. burt 22

    13 April 2008 at 2:36 pm

    The Maori seats… They have no place under MMP and I guess that’s why we never had the referendum to validate MMP as our electoral system.

    The law of common sense says that if we elect to continue with a proportional representation system the Maori seats become an undemocratic distortion. So because the major parties are too scared of a voter backlash they do nothing. They don’t validate our choice of MMP, the behave like FPP parties with their “Two ticks [major-party-name-here]” advertising strategies and we muddle on.

    If the Maori people (at up to 20% of the population) cannot get representation in parliament under MMP with the party vote system then we need to question MMP, not endlessly retain the race based electoral role.
23. randal 23

    13 April 2008 at 9:14 pm

    hey higher standard who is ray morgan and why should I tAke his word about anything? he has never been elected to any position as far as I know.
24. higherstandard 24

    13 April 2008 at 9:18 pm

    Randal

    As I said previously the only poll that matters is on election day, everything else is fluff.
25. lprent 25

    14 April 2008 at 8:52 am

    It feels good to be back online.

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