- Date published:
3:47 pm, November 17th, 2011 - 52 comments
Categories: john key, Media, winston peters - Tags: teapot tape, winston peters
Winston Peters is having the time of his life with the teapot tapes. He was widely rumoured to be releasing a transcript at a meeting in Invercargill at 2pm. He didn’t, but he did leak more details. A 3 News summary:
Peters claims knowledge of teapot tape details
… 3 News was at Mr Peters speech this afternoon, where he claimed knowledge of the following details:
• That the length of the tape is eight minutes
• Mr Banks describes Don Brash as “a strange fellow” and Mr Key says, “Yes, we’ve been down that road before”
• The two politicians discuss a potential restructure of the ACT Party with Catherine Isaac mooted as a potential new leader
• That Mr Key says Mr Peters’ “constituents are dying”.
Other snippets doing the rounds:
Families of suicide victims slam Key’s “flippant” remarks. he stands by them.
Key asked whether he talked about getting “unbridled power”
Key says that wasting the Police’s time is OK because crime is down.
Rumours of a TV1 poll tonight that shows no damage to the Nats on voting intentions yet.
Update: Also rumours of a Herald Digipoll tomorrow that does show big shifts. Who to believe?
“Rumours of a TV1 poll tonight that shows no damage to the Nats on voting intentions yet.”
After three years in opposition are Labour really pinning its hopes on 1 week of campaigning?
That last one really frightens me… what if Key pulls all this shit and nobody wakes up? I mean really New Zealand… the teapottapes plus so much more shows Key to be the most disingenuous vindictive lying son of a botch job Prime Minister we’ve ever had, and you aren’t going to change the way you vote? FFS! I really do hope that my suspicions are correct, and those polls are as dodgy as hell.
See the update…
Umm Labour? Where did it say Labour?
Yet – as in the poll was taken days ago and Key’s meltdown gets more speculator every hour.
The guy’s using Bainimarama tactics. If you don’t think that’s costing him, you’re dreaming. And, if you’re right, god help this country.
How about we get a referendum on banning political polls in the six weeks leading up to an election?
(although banning poitical polls altogether would be a healthy step forward for any democracy)
If thats all they discussed then maybe the conversation is as bland as Key says it is.
– Catherine Isaacs is obviously a future leader of the Act Party.
– Anyone who has met Don knows that he is a bit odd.
– Old people die. Also, Santa Claus isnt real.
The story long since went from what he actually said, to the daft responses that Key and his team took to it.
It probably isn’t so much that he had something terrible to hide (although Peters will hype it up that way). It is the fact he thought that he could suppress it. Moreover that best way to do that was to try and intimidate journos. They’ve already had a gutsfull of the softly-softly restrictions they have had with Key. But trying to intimidate them is quite literally the small of blood on the water to the sharks.
If Brash is odd- what would you call Banks?
That TV1 poll would have been taken before the Teapot Saga became a major issue. Hence it will not have affected their poll rating. Could be a different story by this time next week though.
It’s not necessarily the subject matter itself that is controversial Nick C. It’s the words that were used and, more importantly, the tone of voice. All the evidence so far suggests that tone was derogatory towards certain people.
I think the media get excited about things like this affecting polls as do the party and politically interested. I can’t recall an event like this of beehive oriented politics seriously changing views. Did Corngate shift things like Iwi Kiwi? Hollowmen seemed to have no effect (the polls were all over the place so it’s hard to judge and perhaps easy to overinterpret the impact depending on your political alliegance
It is more a question of timing. It usually takes at least two weeks for something to sink into the voters perception and often as long as 3 months.
But I’m not sure how much effect that something like this so close to the election has on voters. They’re actually emerging from their 3 year slumber and starting to take notice of politics. In this case it has been accentuated by the very short period after the RWC – which definitely disrupted the usual rise in traffic here. It is only really the last two weeks that there has been a rush to the political blogs by people other than the usual political junkies.
I guess we will know at the polling place. There is hardly time for the effect to go through in any other poll.
However it does seem to have crushed Act for sure because the cup of tea was so screwed up. It is pretty clear that goldsmith could drop out of the race in epsom now and he would still win (since his name can’t be removed at this late hour).
It will in any case cripple John Key’s remaining time as PM. Quite simply it now gets really easy to put the needle in, and his coalition prospects look quite restrictive.
Winston? Well if there was ever an issue designed to put him over the line, then National just gave him the perfect one. Calling the police! What are the
monied academicwhatever classes trying to pull on dear old REAL kiwi’s. Ah yes – I am now expecting the old bugger to sneak over the line. Mostly due to the political idiots like Hide, Farrar, Slater, and the like who don’t know how to push the stake in properly and did such a pissant job in 2008.
I must agree somewhat mr prent. Politics is on the minds of many many more than usual right now. Perhaps accentuated here in Chch thanks to The Great Earth Monster and thanks to the coup d’etat at our elected Regional Council. Perhaps a good reason to go hard in those swingish seats around these parts like Port Hills for the last week.
It is funny though – just when politics and Key rear into view Key goes and falls off the horse and brays like a ninny. Talk about creating an impression …..
The big problem with all this is it’s smothering Labour’s campaign as well. I think the Nats are now playing a good game of damage control, appearing to be the victim.
Very worrying that Nats are now saying they can’t get policy out, when the truth is they don’t have any that’s palatable for the masses and now they have a cover for not talking about it.
The Horizon Poll turned up about the beginning of the melt down too. So that should be out soon too.
I hope the title of this post isn’t a suggestion that most of his supporters are getting on a bit in years…
Nah, it’s mostly the trolls who’re dribbling.
And I thought that Joyce had a hand in ridding Hide and elevating Brash. Yet Key agrees that Brash is a bit strange. That is a bit strange and remember that Joyce leapt in first over tea cups. Did he advise Key’s direction?
This stuff is all so pathetic that it couldn’t be seriously argued that Key has been trying to cover it up.
Most of this has already been out in the media, so the stuff Peters has released is equally boring, if not more so.
Keys point about taking a stand on principle looks pretty strong now, as there is no other logical reason for going to the police about it.
I actually hope the media get caned over this. They have known that the police are dealing with the case, and have still tried to make a story out of it. Also, they were completely aware of how innocuous it was. So, be it on their heads if they have broken any law with the publicity they have given it so far.
Key is right. They should have been focusing on the important issues.
Still up to the “Key can do no wrong” routine I see, ts.
Lanth, the problem is that the media, Goff, Peters et al. have way overcooked their cabbage. If they are going to make such a meal of this then they better have something stunning at the end of it. This is just one huge anti-climax that is completely underwhelming.
The only one turning up the heat on the cabbage is Key. He is the one who has escalated this each step of the way, faster than anyone expected even.
Yeah. But now it looks much more like a stance on principle. I mean, why try and cover up such a trite discussion? If something major had come out, Key’s actions would definitely smell of a cover up. But this???
Actually ts, if he was standing on principle, then earlier on (too late now) he could have released the contents, demonstrating that he truly wasn’t concerned about what it said, and *still* pressed changes on the principle of it.
Actions are louder than words. So far Key’s actions have spoken very loudly indeed. He’s out of his depth and either has a very crappy memory or is lying about it – not good characteristics for the leader of the counter.
It can’t possibly be a stand on principle tssmithfield.
John Key does not have any principles he traded them in exchange for the first million he made on the backs of the rest of us.
He doesn’t know anyone who has a spare principle he could borrow either, because his friends have all done the same thing.
whose 50 million does John Key have?
mom’n’pop ‘investors’ from all around the world ?
It has been repeatedly pointed out to you that the current issue isn’t so much the content of the tape but Key’s handling of it, which has been poor to say the least. I note that you keep putting up advice for Key on how to handle the situation, but he doesn’t do any such thing, and instead digs himself further and further into a hole (the police have spare time? LOL).
The reality is Key can only lose votes over this, not gain them. Of course diehard National/Key supporters like you will be completely unaffected. Others will see him handling this poorly and may change their votes (how many? who knows). Anyone who wasn’t going to vote for Key before (such as most of those here) certainly aren’t going to suddenly decide to vote for him now. Instead, their perceptions of Key will just be amplified by this whole situation.
Or Peters doesn’t know with any certainty and is repeating what he is told/has read. Winston is hardly reliable as a source.
In that case Duncan Garner could easily come forward and slam Peters as clearly making things up for publicity purposes.
But Garner hasn’t has he.
Who cares. Even with the spin Peters has put on it, its an absolute non-event. It would have been worthwhile had it been Key talking about putting more state assets on the block than he had disclosed, or something like that. But this is just trivial bullshit that doesn’t rate the attention it has had.
A trivial non-event? Key disagrees with you – he thinks that your “trivial non event” is actually a matter for the police.
As has been said over and again, it’s not so much what he said as how. It’s all to do with his choice of lexis, his voice tones, his attitude. Just as it was when he walked out on Garner this morning. His subtext to everyone watching was that he was in charge, he knew what people wanted to know, and he’d do what he liked. A classic Muldoonist approach, without the power of menace the short one had. Anyone not in love with Key was either going WTF or laughing hysterically, as I am now. Carry on Ts and co; as they say, it’s gold, pure gold.
They should have been focusing on the important issues
tsmithfield – you mean like “Brand Key” and “leadership”, i.e. what National have based their entire campaign on? Of course, if National has released little substantive policy then of course the content from their point of view becomes about those two aspects, and up until 5 days ago, that was the whole idea. It has proved to be a risky strategy and may indeed be their undoing.
I’m sure Labour would heartily welcome National to outline its comprehensive policy platform and agenda for the next term, but of course they would have cause for concern that simple talking and criticism of such ideas surrounding National’s strategy may become a police matter.
See my comment to Lanth above. Its all over-promise, and under-deliver from the media.
It looks like the PM has been hounded incessently over nothing.
You could be right tsmithfield. Who knows how the polls will unfold over the next week. The thing is though if it’s as trivial as you would have us think then doesn’t that just underscore the extraordinary situation we have now where the PM has effectively taken the nuclear option and completely trashed his relationship with the fourth estate? For what? What happens next? At the very least even you would have to accept that the strategy is a bit flawed.
Hey ts, have a read of how Brash handled himself during questioning here:
Starting at the “BRASH: I’M NOT STORMING OUT” sub-heading.
He didn’t get all histrionic about it, didn’t conflate it with news of the world hacking or suicides, didn’t flippantly say the police have got so much time on their hands they can waste it on this investigation and didn’t storm off at the end of it.
Straight up honest answers. That’s always been Brash’s problem when it comes to politics, he’s too honest and doesn’t have the political nous to know when he needs to keep his cards close to his chest (remember when he said he didn’t want to talk over Clark in the leaders debates because she was a woman?). But when it comes to dealing with a scandal, Brash’s approach is a lot more statesmanship like than Key’s spoiled brat playing dumb routine.
Strange but true Lanthanide.
“Ve know nothink” is the nub for non members of the ShonKey fan club.
and the greens
According to TVNZ Peters also claimed that Key said he expected National would get enough votes in the election to govern alone.
Methinks Key doesn’t like to lose or to be strongly criticised.
He’s just said what everyone already knows…
Can’t blame him for milking it I guess.
Ah well. I think I ‘ve just lost $20 bucks. At Ipredict at 5.55pm I short-sold Key winning on the basis that I thought the TVNZ poll might show a drop for National.
However, just as I have been saying, and saying, and saying. No-one cares. Labour is losing out of this, not National.
Anyway, I will keep my position open. Then, if by some remote chance, National does lose I will at least have made $180 or so for only $20 risk. That way I will have something to be happy about whatever the result. 🙂
The Tv3 poll has National down another 3% ,and 2 % down for Labour but up for NZF and up to 13% for the Greens.
If ACT disappears then the game could become a lot closer.
My understanding is that the percentages in parliament are based on the votes of the parties that get over 5% or an electorate seat. So ACT disappearing might actually help Key.
I think a maximum of 10% of votes will be to unelected parties, soif the nats get more than 45% they’d be able to govern alone. If Winston gets in at 5%, then the national/MP requirement goes to 47.5% to govern (plus an extra 1 for speaker, of course).
Currently they’re in the low 50s, and that’s without assuming a systemic conservative (in both senses of the word, i.e. incumbent bias or tory press) bias in the polls. Slipping 5% would seem to be very do-able based on nact current performance, 10% probably not.
It will be “a damned close-run thing”, with national on an all-or-nothing gamble.
Conventional wisdom I’ve heard requires at least 46%-47% on the night for the Nats to govern alone. And that would give them nothing more than a very unstable majority which they would want to bolster.
With the turncoat Greens.
Just saw Peters on TV3 before I turned it off due to the urge to vomit.
Campbell asked him several times if what he had leaked about the conversation was what he had heard/read himself from the recording, or what someone told him. Peters seemed to be doing everything possible to avoid giving the answer “no” to having anything better than hear-say to rely on. Typical Peters. High on rhetoric, zero on substance.
That’s not how you spell “Garner”. Or “Key”.
On iPredict tonight, Matthew Hooton seemed to back up all the things Peters said about the content of the recordings: NZF supporters dying off, comments about Act leadership. Plus he added there was a derogatory/dismissive comment about the Greens or their kind of supporters.
So another to add to the list of people JK has potentially annoyed.
So what Carol? Red Russell Norman annoys 90% of New Zealand daily. I can’t believe he’s being talked of as an economic moderate – he’s a communist!
How can anyone interpret a poll when you don’t know-
1. The sampling period
2. The sample size
3. How the questions are asked.
4. The subgroup sizes.
If you don’t know that how can anyone decide what the predictive value of he poll is?
Talk about polls what happened in auckland when banks was supposed to be a shoe in,and len
brown won it,it aint over,til its over.