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Pita’s poll: Maori Party death-rattle?

Written By: - Date published: 9:35 am, April 2nd, 2011 - 38 comments
Categories: maori party, Maori seats - Tags: , , , , , , ,

A new Horizon poll suggests that Pita Sharples’ majority in Tamaki Makaurau has been slashed by 80% and he could be overtaken by Labour’s Shane Jones. There’s a bit of scuttlebutt that Willie Jackson might run for Hone’s new Left/Maori Party (if it gets off the ground). In that case, expect a real three-way race, which Sharples would almost certainly lose.

Annette Skyes is champing at the bit to run against Te Ururoa Flavell in Waiariki, which would create another three way race that Flavell is likely to lose.

Rahui Katene will almost certainly lose her 1,000 vote majority to Labour’s Rino Tirikatene even without a third party.

That only leaves Tariana Turia. Her majority isn’t much larger than Sharples’. You would assume she is safe but she would be a fool to rest easy.

And a new party will have a strong case for taking the lion’s share of the Maori Party’s party vote. Maori roll votes get the logic of vote splitting about a third of those who gave their candidate votes to a Maori Party candidate last election gave their party vote to Labour. The case for giving their party vote to Hone’s party even if they continue to vote for a Maori Party candidate will be even stronger – two Maori Parties for the price of one.

If this plays out, the Maori Party could be down to one or two seats and the Hone’s party could have two or three.

The scenario is not looking good for the Maori Party and they have no-one to blame but themselves. They have betrayed their principles and betrayed the people that voted for them. They chose this fate or, rather, in their hubris believed they could promise one thing and do another and Maori would continue to support them.

38 comments on “Pita’s poll: Maori Party death-rattle? ”

  1. higherstandard 1

    Horizon polls are truly excellent, at present I am registered with them under three different guises and party preferences but still haven’t won the free ipad.

    • Vinsin 1.1

      Lol

    • Colonial Viper 1.2

      Thanks for your honest admission of dishonesty, HS. I think we are all pretty clear on where you stand now.

    • lprent 1.3

      😈 But is it worth it? You know it will be a iPad1

      • felix 1.3.1

        I’m waiting for the iPad3, I’ve heard it’ll be awesome. It’ll have a keyboard, a mouse, an optical drive, a lid, and a proper hard drive.

      • LOL I MCed a conference of industry bigwigs the other week. If delegates got ten stamps from the exhibitors they went into a draw for “an iPad”.

        I wondered whether it’d be an iPad 1… sure enough, I did my best gameshow host impersonation, the winner came up on stage, and my “lovely assistant” brandished the old version.

        A deathly silence descended on the room. And as for the “lucky” winner… if looks could kill…

        • felix 1.3.2.1

          How incredibly spoilt we are to turn up our noses at a (free) machine that 10 years ago was still in the realm of science fiction.

  2. Jum 2

    Speaking of bullying, on Willie’s Sound Bites last night a woman (I apologise for not catching her name) debating with Sue Bradford was saying that Maori women should get a 5 year contraceptive injection to stop them having babies. Luckily, she was Maori herself or there would have been a race riot! Sue disagreed saying it was their freedom to choose. I assume it would only be women on benefits under this government’s control.

    Importantly, though, what they both agreed on, with the usual stirring from Willie, was that ‘those’ young women really need positive support from when they should get it, pre-birth, onwards – real education, real training access and real jobs that give them self-worth, and I say any women and men should have free contraception as long as they require it.

    I still remember Tariana Turia being really proud that she was encouraging all young Maori women into having lots of babies and New Zealand would be browner and the Maori Party would take control of New Zealand. She gave little heed then as to the impact her words would have on those young women who see/saw her as an icon. She never bothered to say – enjoy your youth, get some educational qualifications, go for the best job you want, maybe travel, then have a quality life as well as your love to offer your babies.

    In pushing her ideology and reversing the process, I believe she must take some responsibility if things aren’t going well now.

    Can someone tell me the name of the woman debating with Sue Bradford? I would be interested to read her opinion on that.

    As usual Willie was a must-see.

    • ianmac 2.1

      I taped Willie last night but have yet to watch it – but wait. I’ll check right now. Sharon Wilson-Davis, CEO Strive Trust.

      • Jum 2.1.1

        Thanks Ianmac.

        Sharon Wilson-Davis is obviously frustrated that this is happening to young women she cares about but this is definitely an issue of democracy and the freedom not to have a foreign chemical forced into your body against your will.

        NActMU certainly don’t win any medals for enhancing democracy in this country.

    • M 2.2

      Jum, I too was dismayed when Tariana blathered on about young Maori women’s fertility being under the control of Europeans or words to that effect. My first thoughts were that if the young woman in question has no educational qualifications, no work experience, few possesions then that child may well be condemned to a miserable future despite the numbers of Maori increasing and felt she was totally irresponsible advocating such a thing. If she said young woman has no partner or familial support then life becomes very grim.

      Children from low/middle income two-parent families where both parents are working in this economic climate know things are tough for their parents; a sole parent working or on welfare finds it even harder to scrape by and the child/ren suffer as a result.

  3. Morgan 3

    Interesting analysis, Eddie.

    In the event of a three way race between Jones, Sharples and Willie Jackson, Willie would win. Sharples has vacated the left, but Shane is not yet in any position to pick up disillusioned left voters. Shane’s credibility among women is non-existent and his left credentials are hardly convincing.

    I have blogged on Annette Sykes chances in Waiariki here (I can’t be bothered summarising it).

    http://mauistreet.blogspot.com/2011/03/annette-sykes-vs-te-ururoa-flavell.html

    Te Tai Tonga could go either way. A Labour victory is not guaranteed, however it is fair to assume it is probable. Pre-earthqauke Rino Tirikatene would have cruised to victory given Rahui’s support for the MCA act. However, things are now a lot less clear. Rahui has been supporting her constituents in Chch and this will count for a lot.

    • Tiger Mountain 3.1

      A ‘third way’ is the ‘holy grail’ for various persuasions that purposefully place inadequate attention on class, the very reason for the Maori party travails. And Labour party travails. But qualified support is due to Labour this election, not on the lesser of two evils proposition, but to help forestall a greater evil. This is a fork in the road election, a second Natz administration will level this country as we knew it for a significant time.

      In the event you are a cousin of Lew’s, attention to class in a marxist sense does not mean subjugating post colonial indigenous struggles in some sort of ranking.

      Maori seats should remain as long as maori voters want them. But I have to say in Te Tai Tokerau and Northland an interesting situation exists. In the 2008 election party vote results, Northland seat-National votes 17,703, non National votes 16,669 (which obviously includes a few rats and mice such as ACT). Te Tai Tokerau seat-National votes 1,883. So the National Party vote using both electorates adds up to 18,572 and the non National vote inclusive of Greens, Lab, Maori party, NZ first, etc. to 35,241.

  4. ianmac 4

    “They have betrayed their principles and betrayed the people that voted for them. ”
    It seems to be the fate of small parties who get too close in supporting the governing parties. Maybe the Greens way back were wise to be not in coalition with Labour. And maybe Winston talking about sitting on the cross benches is a wiser position for a minor party. Act has virtually self-destructed but National will prop them up in order to keep what would otherwise be the far right rump of National.
    So how should a minor party behave to avoid being flattened under MMP?

    • Jum 4.1

      I think it will depend on the outcome of this general election.

      If National get in again and Labour is the only other main player the other smaller permanent parties will begin to get larger votes. Why? Because National is betraying its principles. National, whether you liked their policies or not, once played by the ethics of honest campaigning. They no longer do. They mislead and they lie; as Matthew Hooten said, all they have to do is keep the people happy until they get in again. It doesn’t matter about those who wouldn’t vote for them anyway. So they’re attacking their rights now – workers and beneficiary workers.

      Word from inside the Nat machinery tells me that National went into government with no plan. Seriously, some might think Labour was politicking by saying in the Parliamentary debates that National had no plan. But they really, really don’t. They’re winging it until they get back in – they hope this year – to enable them to sell off New Zealand in pieces in 2012 when the legislation on LGAct 2002/2009 amendment allows them to without our 75% sayso. The international corporates will already have control through the TPPA just before the election – thanks to the cunning Mr Key.

      Nat supporters and those working in the Nat machinery with principles and honesty are leaving the party; it will be interesting to see how many are left which will give us a tally of the ones that are happy to sell their country down the river for selfish greed.

      Labour if it gets in will need to reverse the damage to workers and start from pre-birth education and on. All children are important to our future and money must be allocated to all of them. Women need to get pay equity immediately. The time for research is over. The gap in equity is larger; NAct is lying when they say it is reducing. Women in part time jobs earning minimum wage are thrown into unemployment and the average wage goes up – again thanks to the cunning Mr Key and English.

      If this does not happen then I believe the smaller parties will attract the more socially conscious and principled voters who do care about other people – Christchurch was proof of that. The smaller parties will then govern on their own.

  5. outofbed 5

    There is an amazing new young Green Candidate that might be standing in Te Tai Hauāuru
    the electorate of Tariana Turia. Simply amazing young man and one to watch, he will do well

  6. ianmac 6

    @ Jum”The smaller parties will then govern on their own.”
    Wouldn’t that be a hoot! Imagine figuring who would be the PM!

    • Jum 6.1

      Let them all be PM, Ianmac. They can have a portfolio each.

      Turei can have the conservation portfolio, and Norman the Green economy.

      Peters can have the immigration portfolio and also have the responsibility of speaking to each hopeful and telling them to their faces if he wants to send them away. He has our immediate approval to send the tobacco lobbyist Glenn off to Monaco on his political NAct-seat, not with a political seat. Peters’ major portfolio of course will be looking after the olds, and taxing the racing industry to help pay for the budgeters’ costs when the betting people lose their food and rent money, which is what people resort to when all else has failed them – pie in the sky-Key.

      My personal favourite Jim Anderton can have the Health portfolio and close down Diane Foreman’s private hospitals which may then close down an avenue of funding for the NActs or at least a dinner table. Bring back cheap dental care Jim. And, when Ryall turns up for his use the drill on ‘im, even if he doesn’t need it! I’m sick of seeing those teeth smirking as he reads out money for this and money for that, all the while hiding the damage he is doing to the safe health and home care to the elderly and children. Turia or Sharples – nah, sorry, can’t trust them. Plus one newbie Prime Minister – Sue Bradford who has seen what it’s like helping the lowest paid and badly treated to dealing with the bottom feeders like Key and English.

      Act – LOL LOL LOL. You expect me to even consider that bulldog who took away my democratic rights to access Select Committee process for the first bill to steal away my children’s children’s assets in the Auckland takeover. Ianmac – that’s asking too much.

      • ianmac 6.1.1

        Great thinking outside the square Jum. :0
        How about Trevor Mallard for Minister of Cycleways?

        • Jum 6.1.1.1

          Captcha: stoppings

          Great idea, Ianmac, but not yet – the leg…ya know…He will have to inspect the ‘whole 9 yards’ of cycle way established – but, well, yeah, he’ll probably only need one leg for that.

          Actually, Sharon Wilson-Davis, CEO Strive Trust, who obviously cares about women will be in charge of Women’s Affairs and Pay Equity but disallowed entry to the medicine cabinet.

  7. Akldnut 7

    I hope Shane Jones is reading this, we need him to step up and get more profile in the MSM.

    That goes for all Labour candidates

  8. Drakula 8

    This could be very interesting, if the Maori party goes down the gurgler then they could very well take the NAT/ACT government with them.

    I hope that there are more Green politicians; ironically Green policies seem to be more sympathetic to the hopes and asperations of the Standard supporters, except for those who support Anderton and his party, whatever it’s called: Can someone help me out here?

    Allience? New Labour? – – – – – -Jim Anderton Party? – – – – -Anti Dope Party?

    • Jum 8.1

      Drakula,

      Don’t be mean to Jim Anderton and the Progressives Party. He will be the next Health Minister in my new government and will give everyone, except Ryall, cheap dental care.

      If you don’t have good teeth, how can you chew your greens, lad?

      • Blue 8.1.1

        Jum, try brushing them every now and again, cuts dental costs down quite dramatically.

        • Jum 8.1.1.1

          Blue,
          There’s a few blues I like to chew up and spit out – I hope you’re not one of them!

  9. randal 9

    Pita should have listened to what helen clarke had to say about his co-conspirators.

    • Drakula 9.1

      That “they can’t be trusted”

      Jum don’t get me wrong I have had a lot of respect for Anderton I support his ideas on the extention of dental’ health services but his ego got in the way!!!!!!

      If he can get the Allience (if they still exist) Greens and the other real left parties rally them all together to go with Labour with an increased majority then that will put the globalist labour ministers into check.

      This has just happened in Germany the Greens now have a majority in the state of Baden Baden!!!!

      Then we need to get those apathetic buggers off their arse to vote !!!!!!

  10. Steve Withers 10

    What surprised me was the Maori Party thinking they would avoid National shafting them. That moment – when they decied to go that path – told me all I needed to know about the quality of their analysis and political acumen. The rest after that has just been the spring unwinding – the clock running down. A word I dislike, but accurate in this case: inevitable.

    In many ways, the best outcome would be for all National’s mate-parties to disappear….requiring National to win big in order to govern….though this may have the perverse affect of amplifying National’s party vote so 45%-ish wins them a majority in the House.

  11. Blue 11

    In the words of chairman Helen Moari were described by the left as the “last cab off the rank”.  Quite a charming statement eh? Don’t you think that still rankles with Maori?  Maori didn’t abandon Labour, Labour abandoned them and now Labour reaps the consequences but still gets pissy and moans about it, because they choose to work with the Government and gets things done, rather than sit on the outside as a largely impotent entity providing comic relief , like the Greens do.  All words and ideology but no practical approach to how these apply to the real world that we all have to live in.

    • What a silly statement.  Labour or the left has never described Maori as the last cab off the rank.  Helen said that about the Maori Party in 2005 and that was for understandable reasons.
       
      Note to Blue, time has moved on and there is a genuine effort behind the scenes for Labour to get on with the Maori Party.  It would help if Turia was not there.
       
      Turia is really getting things done but if you look closely they are not good for Maori as a whole.
       

      • marty mars 11.1.1

        Wot? labour aren’t out to annihilate the maori party

        sadly no overtures to Hone who will create a Left Maori Party

        perhaps they will do a deal together – labour and the maori party, to shut out a true voice of the people.

    • Jum 11.2

      Blue,
       
      Usual nasty little misleading words and statements.  You rightwingers have to be watched.  You’re always lying.
      The Greens have achieved good for people with the insulation agreement.  They are also attracting more  support.
      Turia was a person looking for a reason to form a party;  but only after Helen Clark had supported her and shielded her during her formative years in Parliament, learning how to operate the system.  Then she betrayed Clark and Labour.
      Just like NActMU are doing now with the TPPA which they will sign off just before the election to give away this country’s sovereigntyand betray New Zealanders future generations.
       
      Anyone who cares about what National is signing away of our sovereign rights needs to check out CAFCA – Murray Horton has been working since 1974 to save us from ourselves by trying to stop the privatisation of our assets by governments that seem to forget who actually owns these assets.
       

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