- Date published:
9:35 am, April 2nd, 2011 - 38 comments
Categories: maori party, Maori seats - Tags: annette skyes, hone harawira, pita sharples, rahui katene, rino tirikatene, Tariana Turia, te ururoa flavell, willie jackson
A new Horizon poll suggests that Pita Sharples’ majority in Tamaki Makaurau has been slashed by 80% and he could be overtaken by Labour’s Shane Jones. There’s a bit of scuttlebutt that Willie Jackson might run for Hone’s new Left/Maori Party (if it gets off the ground). In that case, expect a real three-way race, which Sharples would almost certainly lose.
Annette Skyes is champing at the bit to run against Te Ururoa Flavell in Waiariki, which would create another three way race that Flavell is likely to lose.
Rahui Katene will almost certainly lose her 1,000 vote majority to Labour’s Rino Tirikatene even without a third party.
That only leaves Tariana Turia. Her majority isn’t much larger than Sharples’. You would assume she is safe but she would be a fool to rest easy.
And a new party will have a strong case for taking the lion’s share of the Maori Party’s party vote. Maori roll votes get the logic of vote splitting about a third of those who gave their candidate votes to a Maori Party candidate last election gave their party vote to Labour. The case for giving their party vote to Hone’s party even if they continue to vote for a Maori Party candidate will be even stronger – two Maori Parties for the price of one.
If this plays out, the Maori Party could be down to one or two seats and the Hone’s party could have two or three.
The scenario is not looking good for the Maori Party and they have no-one to blame but themselves. They have betrayed their principles and betrayed the people that voted for them. They chose this fate or, rather, in their hubris believed they could promise one thing and do another and Maori would continue to support them.