Polity: Even non-coattail electorate deals can create unfair advantage
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10:15 am, June 12th, 2014 - 21 comments
Categories: elections, electoral systems, MMP -
Tags: polity
There has been plenty of discussion about electorate “cup of tea” deals recently, in which a large party agrees to give a small party an easy run in an electorate, so that the small party is more-or-less guaranteed seats in Parliament when they might otherwise get kicked out. Vernon Small has more specunalysis about National’s suite of deals this morning.
Some of the concern is about “overhang” “coat-tailing” (HT: @trevormallard) where a party on, say, 2.5% can gain three or even four seats off the back of a single electorate win. The impact of that on Parliament overall is clear.
But what of the deals with true minnow parties, like United Future or ACT? If a party is only polling enough to get one seat anyway, does it matter to Parliament overall whether the small party wins an electorate or its client big party wins it instead?
The answer is “possibly, yes,” because we can never be sure which party ultimately loses a seat to accommodate the new minnow party in a 120 seat parliament. Sometimes, it will be the big party making the deal, at which point everything comes out square. But other times it will be some other party that was entirely outside the deal. At that point the consequences can be huge.
Here’s an example that uses pretty plausible polling numbers, the Electoral Commission’s St Lague method for handing out list seats, and the Epsom deal as a test case:
| Scenario 1 No Epsom deal |
Scenario 2 Epsom deal |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Party vote | Electorate | Total | Electorate | Total |
| National | 44.5% | 40 | 57 | 39 | 57 |
| Labour | 31% | 29 | 40 | 29 | 39 |
| Greens | 11% | 0 | 14 | 0 | 14 |
| NZ First | 5.5% | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| Conservatives | 2.2% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Internet MANA | 2.3% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maori | 1% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| United | 0.5% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| ACT | 0.5% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Total | 120 | 120 | |||
| Team NUFMACT | 46.5% | 59 | 60 | ||
| Team LGNZF | 47.5% | 61 | 60 | ||
By rights, the potential Centre-Left coalition should have more seats in Parliament than the current Centre-Right Coalition, because they won 1% more votes. And without an Epsom deal, that is what would happen.
But with the Epsom deal, ACT gets an electorate seat in place of National, and that is not all that changes. National’s overall entitlement in Parliament remains unchanged (it is based only on the St lague calculations), so it picks up an extra list seat to offset the electorate seat loss. That list seat comes at the expense of Labour in this case (again due to the St lague quotients), and all of a sudden the Centre-Left’s 1% vote advantage comes to nothing, and we have a 60-60 deadlock.
This situation occurs roughly half the time, meaning than an electorate deal with a minnow leads on average to a 0.5 seat advantage towards the Coalition making the deal.
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- The Pacific Reset & the Blue ContinentThank you for your invitation to speak with you this afternoon about New Zealand Foreign Policy. After offering one or two general thoughts about the nature of foreign policy, the focus today will be the Pacific Reset and why its goals remain even more important today as when they were ...1 week ago
- Release: Huge hole in National’s climate budgetNational’s plan to cut policies that are reducing New Zealand’s climate emissions will result in a huge gap in the country’s emissions budgets and could see Kiwis paying significantly more at the petrol pump as a result of Christopher Luxon hiking the ETS price. ...1 week ago
- Greens would push Labour much further on solar powerLabour’s plan to support rooftop solar is a step in the right direction, but falls short of what could be achieved through the Green Party’s Clean Power Payment. ...1 week ago
- Release: Doubling rooftop solar to reduce bills & emissionsLabour will double the number of houses with rooftop solar in New Zealand, lowering household power bills, reducing emissions and boosting renewable electricity generation. ...1 week ago
- Release: Labour will advance women’s health, careers, and legal protectionsA re-elected Labour Government will continue its proud tradition of advancing women’s health, employment, and legal rights Spokesperson for Women Jan Tinetti said. ...1 week ago
- Green Party confirms plan for five weeks annual leaveSpeaking at the E Tū Election Launch in Auckland today, Green Party co leader Marama Davidson outlined the Green Party’s manifesto commitment to ensure everyone has five weeks of annual leave. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour to keep lifting worker wages and rightsA re-elected Labour Government will protect hard-fought workers’ rights and keep the momentum on wage growth to lift incomes for all New Zealanders, leader Chris Hipkins announced today. ...2 weeks ago
- New Zealand First Party List 2023New Zealand First is proud to announce the Party List for the upcoming 2023 General Election. We have had a great number of applicants and potential candidates moving through the selection process over the past few months. Our final selection for our list proves we have a wide range ...2 weeks ago
- A National/ACT Government would make life miserable for those already worst offOnly a party vote for the Greens will end poverty. ACT’S welfare policy announced today is as cruel as it gets. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Willis’ resignation call means only one thing – $2 billion more cutsMassive cuts to public service are on the cards as Nicola Willis has promised to resign if she doesn’t deliver tax cuts but is refusing to make the same commitment if she doesn’t raise enough income from her bungled foreign buyer’s tax. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: A faster justice system focused on victimsLabour will help more victims of crime achieve justice faster by introducing a formal class-action regime, modernising consent laws and increasing the use of technology to speed up hearings. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Gaping hole confirmed in National’s tax planA whopping $2.1 billion dollar hole has been confirmed in National’s tax scheme in a new report released today. ...2 weeks ago
- Labour pledges biggest ever increase to training DoctorsLabour will deliver the largest ever increase to the number of doctors trained each year, adding an additional 335 doctors a year to our health workforce from 2027, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins has announced. ...2 weeks ago
- PREFU Exposes Political PromisesToday’s PREFU has some alarming statistics showing an economy deteriorating and the cost of unaffordable government expenditure, mainly in the 2022 and 2023 budgets. Despite this alarming economic and fiscal picture, political parties are making unaffordable promises, talking about a surplus by 2027, or four years time, all of which ...2 weeks ago
- State of books makes clear case for wealth taxThe case for a wealth tax has never been stronger. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour pledges free cervical screeningIf re-elected Labour will make cervical screening services free to all women and people with a cervix aged 25 – 69 years, delivering better cancer care for over 1.4 million New Zealanders. ...2 weeks ago
- Chris Hipkins sets out 9 key pledges to New ZealandLabour Leader Chris Hipkins has set out nine key pledges to be achieved in his first full term as Prime Minister. ...2 weeks ago
- Labour's Plan 2023Labour is running a positive, forward-looking campaign that's focused on fixing the cost of living, keeping people and communities safe and investing in education, health and housing. ...2 weeks ago
- Te Whānau a Apanui and the Crown initial Deed of Settlement I Kua waitohua e Te Whānau a Apanui me...
Māori: Kua waitohua e Te Whānau a Apanui me te Karauna te Whakaaetanga Whakataunga Kua waitohua e Te Whānau a Apanui me te Karauna i tētahi Whakaaetanga Whakataunga hei whakamihi i ō rātou tāhuhu kerēme Tiriti o Waitangi. E tekau mā rua ngā hapū o roto mai o Te Whānau ...14 hours ago - Plan for 3,000 more public homes by 2025 – regions set to benefitRegions around the country will get significant boosts of public housing in the next two years, as outlined in the latest public housing plan update, released by the Housing Minister, Dr Megan Woods. “We’re delivering the most public homes each year since the Nash government of the 1950s with one ...3 days ago
- Immigration settings updatesJudicial warrant process for out-of-hours compliance visits 2023/24 Recognised Seasonal Employer cap increased by 500 Additional roles for Construction and Infrastructure Sector Agreement More roles added to Green List Three-month extension for onshore Recovery Visa holders The Government has confirmed a number of updates to immigration settings as part of ...4 days ago
- Poroporoaki: Tā Patrick (Patu) Wahanga HohepaTangi ngunguru ana ngā tai ki te wahapū o Hokianga Whakapau Karakia. Tārehu ana ngā pae maunga ki Te Puna o te Ao Marama. Korihi tangi ana ngā manu, kua hinga he kauri nui ki te Wao Nui o Tāne. He Toa. He Pou. He Ahorangi. E papaki tū ana ...4 days ago
- Renewable energy fund to support community resilience40 solar energy systems on community buildings in regions affected by Cyclone Gabrielle and other severe weather events Virtual capability-building hub to support community organisations get projects off the ground Boost for community-level renewable energy projects across the country At least 40 community buildings used to support the emergency response ...4 days ago
- COVID-19 funding returned to GovernmentThe lifting of COVID-19 isolation and mask mandates in August has resulted in a return of almost $50m in savings and recovered contingencies, Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall announced today. Following the revocation of mandates and isolation, specialised COVID-19 telehealth and alternative isolation accommodation are among the operational elements ...4 days ago
- Appointment of District Court JudgeSusie Houghton of Auckland has been appointed as a new District Court Judge, to serve on the Family Court, Attorney-General David Parker said today. Judge Houghton has acted as a lawyer for child for more than 20 years. She has acted on matters relating to the Hague Convention, an international ...5 days ago
- Government invests further in Central Hawke’s Bay resilienceThe Government has today confirmed $2.5 million to fund a replace and upgrade a stopbank to protect the Waipawa Drinking Water Treatment Plant. “As a result of Cyclone Gabrielle, the original stopbank protecting the Waipawa Drinking Water Treatment Plant was destroyed. The plant was operational within 6 weeks of the ...6 days ago
- Govt boost for Hawke’s Bay cyclone waste clean-upAnother $2.1 million to boost capacity to deal with waste left in Cyclone Gabrielle’s wake. Funds for Hastings District Council, Phoenix Contracting and Hog Fuel NZ to increase local waste-processing infrastructure. The Government is beefing up Hawke’s Bay’s Cyclone Gabrielle clean-up capacity with more support dealing with the massive amount ...6 days ago
- Taupō Supercars revs up with Government supportThe future of Supercars events in New Zealand has been secured with new Government support. The Government is getting engines started through the Major Events Fund, a special fund to support high profile events in New Zealand that provide long-term economic, social and cultural benefits. “The Repco Supercars Championship is ...6 days ago
- There is no recession in NZ, economy grows nearly 1 percent in June quarterThe economy has turned a corner with confirmation today New Zealand never was in recession and stronger than expected growth in the June quarter, Finance Minister Grant Robertson said. “The New Zealand economy is doing better than expected,” Grant Robertson said. “It’s continuing to grow, with the latest figures showing ...6 days ago
- Highest legal protection for New Zealand’s largest freshwater springsThe Government has accepted the Environment Court’s recommendation to give special legal protection to New Zealand’s largest freshwater springs, Te Waikoropupū Springs (also known as Pupū Springs), Environment Minister David Parker announced today. “Te Waikoropupū Springs, near Takaka in Golden Bay, have the second clearest water in New Zealand after ...6 days ago
- More support for victims of migrant exploitationTemporary package of funding for accommodation and essential living support for victims of migrant exploitation Exploited migrant workers able to apply for a further Migrant Exploitation Protection Visa (MEPV), giving people more time to find a job Free job search assistance to get people back into work Use of 90-day ...7 days ago
- Strong export boost as NZ economy turns cornerAn export boost is supporting New Zealand’s economy to grow, adding to signs that the economy has turned a corner and is on a stronger footing as we rebuild from Cyclone Gabrielle and lock in the benefits of multiple new trade deals, Finance Minister Grant Robertson says. “The economy is ...7 days ago
- Funding approved for flood resilience work in Te KarakaThe Government has approved $15 million to raise about 200 homes at risk of future flooding. More than half of this is expected to be spent in the Tairāwhiti settlement of Te Karaka, lifting about 100 homes there. “Te Karaka was badly hit during Cyclone Gabrielle when the Waipāoa River ...7 days ago
- Further business support for cyclone-affected regionsThe Government is helping businesses recover from Cyclone Gabrielle and attract more people back into their regions. “Cyclone Gabrielle has caused considerable damage across North Island regions with impacts continuing to be felt by businesses and communities,” Economic Development Minister Barbara Edmonds said. “Building on our earlier business support, this ...7 days ago
- New maintenance facility at Burnham Military Camp underwayDefence Minister Andrew Little has turned the first sod to start construction of a new Maintenance Support Facility (MSF) at Burnham Military Camp today. “This new state-of-art facility replaces Second World War-era buildings and will enable our Defence Force to better maintain and repair equipment,” Andrew Little said. “This Government ...7 days ago
- Foreign Minister to attend United Nations General AssemblyForeign Minister Nanaia Mahuta will represent New Zealand at the 78th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York this week, before visiting Washington DC for further Pacific focussed meetings. Nanaia Mahuta will be in New York from Wednesday 20 September, and will participate in UNGA leaders ...1 week ago
- Midwives’ pay equity offer reachedAround 1,700 Te Whatu Ora employed midwives and maternity care assistants will soon vote on a proposed pay equity settlement agreed by Te Whatu Ora, the Midwifery Employee Representation and Advisory Service (MERAS) and New Zealand Nurses Association (NZNO), Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall announced today. “Addressing historical pay ...2 weeks ago
- New Zealand provides support to MoroccoAotearoa New Zealand will provide humanitarian support to those affected by last week’s earthquake in Morocco, Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta announced today. “We are making a contribution of $1 million to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) to help meet humanitarian needs,” Nanaia Mahuta said. ...2 weeks ago
- Government invests in West Coast’s roading resilienceThe Government is investing over $22 million across 18 projects to improve the resilience of roads in the West Coast that have been affected by recent extreme weather, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins confirmed today. A dedicated Transport Resilience Fund has been established for early preventative works to protect the state ...2 weeks ago
- Government invests in Greymouth’s futureThe Government has today confirmed a $2 million grant towards the regeneration of Greymouth’s CBD with construction of a new two-level commercial and public facility. “It will include a visitor facility centred around a new library. Additionally, it will include retail outlets on the ground floor, and both outdoor and ...2 weeks ago
- Nanaia Mahuta to attend PIF Foreign Ministers’ MeetingForeign Minister Nanaia Mahuta will attend the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, in Suva, Fiji alongside New Zealand’s regional counterparts. “Aotearoa New Zealand is deeply committed to working with our pacific whanau to strengthen our cooperation, and share ways to combat the challenges facing the Blue Pacific Continent,” ...2 weeks ago
- PREFU shows no recession, growing economy, more jobs and wages ahead of inflationEconomy to grow 2.6 percent on average over forecast period Treasury not forecasting a recession Inflation to return to the 1-3 percent target band next year Wages set to grow 4.8 percent a year over forecast period Unemployment to peak below the long-term average Fiscal Rules met - Net debt ...2 weeks ago
- New cancer centre opens in ChristchurchPrime Minister Chris Hipkins and Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall proudly opened the Canterbury Cancer Centre in Christchurch today. The new facility is the first of its kind and was built with $6.5 million of funding from the Government’s Infrastructure Reference Group scheme for shovel-ready projects allocated in 2020. ...2 weeks ago
- Government invests in top of the south’s roading resilience$12 million to improve the resilience of roads in the Nelson, Marlborough and Tasman regions Hope Bypass earmarked in draft Government Policy Statement on land transport $127 million invested in the top of the south’s roads since flooding in 2021 and 2022 The Government is investing over $12 million to ...2 weeks ago
- New Zealanders continue to support the revitalisation of te reo as we celebrate Te Wiki o te Reo Mā...Ko tēnei te wiki e whakanui ana i tō tātou reo rangatira. Ko te wā tuku reo Māori, e whakanuia tahitia ai te reo ahakoa kei hea ake tēnā me tēnā o tātou, ka tū ā te Rātū te 14 o Mahuru, ā te 12 o ngā hāora i te ahiahi. ...2 weeks ago
- New Wildlife Act to better protect native speciesThe 70-year-old Wildlife Act will be replaced with modern, fit-for-purpose legislation to better protect native species and improve biodiversity, Minister of Conservation Willow-Jean Prime has announced. “New species legislation is urgently needed to address New Zealand’s biodiversity crisis,” Willow-Jean Prime said. “More than 4,000 of our native species are currently ...2 weeks ago
- Further safety initiatives for Auckland City CentreCentral and Local Government are today announcing a range of new measures to tackle low-level crime and anti-social behaviour in the Auckland CBD to complement Police scaling up their presence in the area. “Police have an important role to play in preventing and responding to crime, but there is more ...3 weeks ago
- Govt confirms additional support for Enabling Good LivesThe Government has confirmed $73.7 million over the next four years and a further $40.5m in outyears to continue to transform the disability support system, Minister for Disability Issues Priyanca Radhakrishnan has announced. “The Enabling Good Lives (EGL) approach is a framework which guides positive change for disabled people, ...3 weeks ago
- New Zealand gets AAA credit rating from S&PStandard and Poor’s is the latest independent credit rating agency to endorse the Government’s economic management in the face of a deteriorating global economy. S&P affirmed New Zealand’s long term local currency rating at AAA and foreign currency rating at AA+ with a stable outlook. It follows Fitch affirming New ...3 weeks ago
- Appointment of Environment Court JudgeChristchurch barrister Kelvin Reid has been appointed as a Judge of the Environment Court and the District Court, Attorney-General David Parker announced today. Mr Reid has extensive experience in Resource Management Act issues, including water quality throughout the South Island. He was appointed to the Technical Advisory Group advising the ...3 weeks ago
- NZ’s biggest ever emissions reduction project hits milestoneNew Zealand is on track to have greener steel as soon as 2026 with New Zealand Steel’s electric arc furnace project reaching a major milestone today. The Government announced a conditional partnership with New Zealand Steel in May to deliver the country’s largest emissions reduction project to date. Half of ...3 weeks ago
- Poroporoaki: Paki Leslie Māngai NikoraPokia ana te tihi Taiarahia e Hine-Pūkohu-rangi Hotu kau ana te manawa! Horahia ana te whārua o Ruātoki e te kapua pouri Tikaro rawahia ko te whatumanawa! Rere whakamuri kau ana te awa o Hinemataroa Ki te kawe i te rongo ki te mātāpuna i nga pōngaihu Maungapōhatu, tuohu ...3 weeks ago
- NZ election 2023: Exposing National leader Christopher Luxon’s Māori health falsehood in debate
ANALYSIS: By Ella Stewart, RNZ News longform journalist, Te Ao Māori National Party leader Christopher Luxon made claims about health outcomes that were clearly false. Why was he left unchallenged? In the TVNZ leaders’ debate last night, Luxon and Labour’s Chris Hipkins had a testy exchange over Māori healthcare. Hipkins ...4 hours ago - NZ election 2023: Exposing National leader Christopher Luxon’s Māori health falsehood in debateANALYSIS: By Ella Stewart, RNZ News longform journalist, Te Ao Māori National Party leader Christopher Luxon made claims about health outcomes that were clearly false. Why was he left unchallenged? In the TVNZ leaders’ debate last night, Luxon and Labour’s Chris Hipkins had a testy exchange over Māori healthcare. Hipkins ...4 hours ago
- Bid to protect Pacific indigenous knowledge in the global digital spaceA recent webinar hosted by the Pacific Network on Globalisation (PANG) brought together minds from across the region to delve into the intricate issues of the digital economy and data value. The webinar’s focus was clear — shed light on who was shaping the rules of the digital landscape ...5 hours ago
- Dan Andrews leaves office as a titan of Victorian politics – who drove conservatives to distractio...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul Strangio, Professor of Politics, Monash University Daniel Andrews, who has announced he will step down after nearly nine years as premier, leaves office as a titan of Victorian politics. An activist premier, a gifted political communicator and a hard man of ...6 hours ago
- Newsletter: September 26 2023 – Items of interest and importance todayNew Zealand Politics Daily is a collation of the most prominent issues being discussed in New Zealand. It is edited by Dr Bryce Edwards of The Democracy Project. NZ Politics Daily: 26 September 2023 NEWSHUB-REID RESEARCH POLL Jenna Lynch (Newshub): Newshub-Reid Research poll: NZ First in powerful position as ACT support crumbles, ...6 hours ago
- Election 2023 updates: All the latest developments on 26 September
Tonight's political debate focused on the top priorities for Māori voters - check out RNZ's updates from the kaupapa Māori debate. ...6 hours ago - Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Economic Growth per Capita: New Zealand in ContextAnalysis by Keith Rankin. Chart by Keith Rankin. Chart by Keith Rankin. The principal measure of economic success in the mainstream narrative is economic growth. The pointy heads associated with that narrative will correctly point out that its economic growth per capita that matters, and which serves as a crude ...6 hours ago
- Bryce Edwards’ Political Roundup: The Vested interests shaping National Party policiesAnalysis by Dr Bryce Edwards. Political scientist, Dr Bryce Edwards. As the National Party gets closer to government, lobbyists and business interests will be lining up for influence and to get policies adopted. It’s therefore in the public interest to have much more scrutiny and transparency about potential conflicts of ...6 hours ago
- National says traffic light policy for beneficiaries driven by 'love'National says its new benefit sanctions policy would target the kind of person who shows up to a job interview in their pyjamas, not struggling young families. ...8 hours ago
- NEW POLL: Voters torn in Auckland Central electorate
A new Taxpayers’ Union – Curia poll in the Auckland Central Electorate has voters undecided between Greens incumbent Chlöe Swarbrick (polling at 26% of voters) and National candidate Mahesh Muralidhar (polling at 24%) - a statistical tie when accounting ...8 hours ago - The Albanese government blew its shot at setting a historic new unemployment targetSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University Shutterstock Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the federal government’s employment white paper is “ambitious”. I’m not convinced. A clearly ambitious statement would have specified a target for unemployment, ideally one ...9 hours ago
- National's Muralidhar nipping at Swarbrick's heels in Auckland central electorate pollWith a large undecided vote it's looking like a very close race between the pair, Labour's Oscar Sims trailing a distant 12 points behind Muralidhar. ...9 hours ago
- New poll puts Auckland Central on a knife edge
Chlöe Swarbrick has a battle on her hands to retain Auckland Central, with a new poll by Curia for the Taxpayers’ Union putting the Green MP just a couple of percentage points ahead of National candidate Mahesh Muralidhar. Swarbrick, whose victory in the high-profile seat was one of the most ...9 hours ago - Dan Andrews quits after nine years as premier of VictoriaSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Dan Andrews has announced he is quitting, after nine years as premier and three election wins. Andrews’ surprise announcement came early Tuesday afternoon. He said his resignation would take effect at 5pm Wednesday. ...11 hours ago
- Is it time for Australia to introduce a national skills passport?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Pi-Shen Seet, Professor of Entrepreneurship and Innovation, Edith Cowan University Antoni Shkraba/Pexels As part of the new employment white paper, the federal government has announced it is thinking seriously about a national skills passport. It has set aside A$9.1 ...11 hours ago
- NZ election 2023: Green Party pledges to double Best Start paymentRNZ News New Zealand’s Green Party says it will double the Best Start payment from $69 a week to $140 — and it will also make it available for all children under three years. Greens co-leader Marama Davidson announced the policy today, saying it is part of a “fully costed ...11 hours ago
- Money for everything – and your kids for free
The Green Party is breaking its centrepiece income guarantee policy into constituent parts and re-announcing them to build on momentum in the polls. Tim Murphy reports. Parents of every child aged up to 3 will be eligible for double-sized Best Start payments under a Greens policy aimed at lifting cost ...11 hours ago - Labour MPs save themselves in face of bad polling
Chris Hipkins is in damage control as his MPs get nervous about their own political futures in the face of bad polling. Left untreated, it could be the start of a caucus splintering, writes political editor Jo Moir The morning had started out well for Chris Hipkins. He'd announced Labour's ...11 hours ago - The many reviews of the public service miss one vital problem – the language used to communicate i...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christiane Gerblinger, Visiting Fellow, Australian National Centre for the Public Awareness of Science, Australian National University Shutterstock Australia’s public service is no stranger to reform. In the past nine years, it has undergone three significant reviews of its policy advising ...11 hours ago
- Public Vote With Their Conscience – And Their Stomachs...11 hours ago
- West Coast-Tasman must stop regional decline, election candidates sayPutting a stop to regional decline was a prevailing theme delivered by West Coast-Tasman's hopeful candidates during an election debate. ...12 hours ago
- Muscle, wood, coal, oil: what earlier energy transitions tell us about renewablesSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Liz Conor, ARC Future Fellow, La Trobe University Child coal miners, Pennsylvania, 1911 Lewis Wickes Hines/Wikimedia Commons In 2022, the burning of fossil fuels provided 82% of the world’s energy. In 2000, it was 87%. Even as renewables have undergone tremendous growth, ...12 hours ago
- Muscle, wood, coal, oil: what earlier energy transitions tell us about renewablesSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Liz Conor, ARC Future Fellow, La Trobe University Child coal miners, Pennsylvania, 1911 Lewis Wickes Hines/Wikimedia Commons In 2022, the burning of fossil fuels provided 82% of the world’s energy. In 2000, it was 87%. Even as renewables have undergone tremendous growth, ...12 hours ago
- Groans and giggles at the TVNZ Young Voters’ DebateSix hopeful candidates from parties likely to make it into New Zealand’s next parliament debated the issues at front of mind for young voters. Charlotte Muru-Lanning reports from the studio. “Feel free to laugh and to clap,” John Campbell told the audience jovially just before the debate kicked off. There ...12 hours ago
- From stock markets to brain scans, new research harmonises hundreds of scientific methods to underst...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ben Fulcher, Senior Lecturer, School of Physics, University of Sydney Shutterstock Complexity is all around us, from the daily fluctuations of financial markets to the intricate web of neurons in our brains. Understanding how the different components of these ...13 hours ago
- From stock markets to brain scans, new research harmonises hundreds of scientific methods to underst...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ben Fulcher, Senior Lecturer, School of Physics, University of Sydney Shutterstock Complexity is all around us, from the daily fluctuations of financial markets to the intricate web of neurons in our brains. Understanding how the different components of these ...13 hours ago
- What do people think about when they go to sleep?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Melinda Jackson, Associate Professor at Turner Institute for Brain and Mental Health, School of Psychological Sciences, Monash University Shutterstock You’re lying in bed, trying to fall asleep but the racing thoughts won’t stop. Instead, your brain is busy making detailed ...13 hours ago
- Election 2023: The health policies in two minutesThe health system has had a hell of a time in the past few years. So what do the different parties say they’ll do about it? Policy.nz has the thorough version, and we’ve got the whistle-stop tour. See more from our policy in two minutes series here. In 2022 the current ...13 hours ago
- First-time eligible voters weigh in on the pressure to decideMore young people are turning out to vote each election, but their numbers still lag far behind the country's older voters. ...13 hours ago
- Luxon’s red light for beneficiaries
National says its new sanction system for people on Jobseeker support will break a cycle of dependence – but its political opponents are calling it heartless National Party leader Christopher Luxon appeared in a West Auckland strawberry field this morning to announce stricter obligations for people on Jobseeker support. Phil ...13 hours ago - Election 2023: NZ First announces time limit for Jobseeker beneficiariesNew Zealand First has proposed a two-year cap on the length of time a person can receive the Jobseeker benefit over their lifetime. ...14 hours ago
- No gavels, no hearsay and lots of drinking: a law expert ranks legal dramas by their accuracySource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dale Mitchell, Lecturer in Law, University of the Sunshine Coast IMDB From Elle Woods in Legally Blonde to Jennifer Walters in She-Hulk, Atticus Finch in To Kill a Mockingbird to Denny Crane in Boston Legal, our popular culture is often ...14 hours ago
- They sent kisses: An essay from Henrietta Bollinger’s ArticulationsAn excerpt from Henrietta Bollinger’s debut collection of essays, recently published by Tender Press. (A note that the moments where some words are represented by XXXXX are intentional.) I am still learning how to consciously talk about seeing sex workers. I want to find a way to share it and ...14 hours ago
- “The Deficit Diaries: Six Years Of Red” Unveils Labour’s Fiscal MiscalculationsWellington ( Tuesday, 26 September 2023 ) - As we approach the 2023 election, New Zealanders must learn from the overly optimistic projections presented by Labour before the 2017 election. New Zealand cannot afford a repeat of this fiscal recklessness. ...14 hours ago
- Election 2023: ACT promises to scrap several climate change policiesACT Party leader David Seymour says his party will stop what he says is wasteful climate change spending. ...14 hours ago
- Election 2023: ACT promises to scrap several climate change policiesACT Party leader David Seymour says his party will stop what he says is wasteful climate change spending. ...14 hours ago
- What’s going to happen to the famous Mangaweka plane?15 hours ago
- Greens would double best start, make it universal for young childrenThe Greens say their new policy of doubling the Best Start payment and extending it for every child under three years would end child poverty in New Zealand. “Parents all over the country are being forced to cut back on food to pay the bills,” said co-leader Marama Davidson. “Our ...15 hours ago
- Green Party pledges to double Best Start payment, extend to all under threeThe Green Party says it will double the Best Start payment from $69 a week to $140; it will also make it available for all children under three years. ...15 hours ago
- Caution RNZ – Your Bilious Bias Is ShowingWhen RNZ first began it was with the intention that there would be an honest and sole broadcaster in which the people of New Zealand could have confidence in what they were hearing was neutral, factual, and professional. Sadly, that worthy reputation ...15 hours ago
- NZFirst Policy Announcement: Capped Time-period For Job Seeker BeneficiariesNew Zealand First today is announcing a policy on adjusting the rules and restrictions around access to the Job Seeker Benefit. New Zealand First’s policy is to introduce a capped time-period for any person to access the Job Seeker Benefit during their ...15 hours ago
- Labour’s Pharmac Policy A PlaceboLabour has just announced a policy to increase Pharmac funding by $1billion over four years to fund additional medicines. With the current Pharmac budget of $1.2billion per year and needing a further $213million, by Minister Verrall’s own admission, ...16 hours ago
- The clear message across seven pollstersThe rationale for Christopher Luxon’s late ruling-in of New Zealand First is clear enough at a glance across the latest numbers from the seven polling companies that are surveying in the leadup to the election. In six of the seven, Winston Peters’ party is at or above the 5% threshold, ...16 hours ago
- 7 years, billions of kilometres, a handful of dust: NASA just brought back the largest-ever asteroid...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Eleanor K. Sansom, Research Associate, Curtin University NASA After a journey of billions of kilometres, NASA’s OSIRIS-REx mission has culminated in a small black capsule blazing through the sky before touching down in the Utah desert. Inside is likely ...16 hours ago
- Handing Climate Policy To Appointed Bureaucrats Is Undemocratic And IneffectiveResponding to Labour’s promise to hand control over carbon pricing under the Emissions Trading Scheme to the Climate Change Commission, Taxpayers’ Union Deputy Campaigns Manager, Connor Molloy, said: “Handing control of carbon pricing away to faceless ...16 hours ago
- Friendship ended with Sky Sport. Now Rabbitholebd Sports is my best friendHow to watch the Black Caps vs Bangladesh for free – and why YouTube is actually the best live sports streaming platform. New Zealand Cricket nerds hoping to watch the first match of the Black Caps’ pre-World Cup ODI series against Bangladesh last week were out of luck – not ...16 hours ago
- Taxpayers’ Union Welcomes National’s Sanction Regime On The Job-Seeker BenefitTaxpayers’ Union welcomes National’s sanction regime on the Job-Seeker Benefit Responding to National’s proposed changes to the Job-Seeker benefit scheme, Taxpayers’ Union National Campaigns Manager, Callum Purves, said: “The current job-seeker ...16 hours ago
- Green List Good News, But Don’t Stop There...17 hours ago
- PNG’s Chief Censor warns over ‘fake nudes’ harassment of young girlsBy Marjorie Finkeo in Port Moresby The rise in social media platforms uploading naked pictures of women and girls has come to the attention of the Censorship Board in Papua New Guinea with Chief Censor Jim Abani warning about the dangers. In what many have termed as cyber bullying, a ...17 hours ago
- Labour promises to ‘turbocharge’ medicine fundingLabour would invest over $1 billion in new funding at Pharmac if reelected, leader Chris Hipkins has promised. It will mean $181 million of funding a year from 2024/25, along with an extra $50 million for new treatments in the first year, rising to $100 million a year in 2026/2027. ...17 hours ago
- Labour promises $1b boost to Pharmac over four yearsAiming to fund more medicines, Labour leader Chris Hipkins has announced over $1 billion of new funding for Pharmac, if re-elected. ...17 hours ago
- Voting Starts Soon In The 2023 General ElectionVoting in the 2023 General Election will be underway soon, with overseas voting starting tomorrow Wednesday 27 September and voting places opening in New Zealand next Monday 2 October. Overseas voting Voters who are overseas can vote from Wednesday ...17 hours ago
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Interesting numbers.
Many have been looking North but is another cup of brewing–with Blinglish now on the list and ex Fed Farmers, now ACT, nutsky Nichols standing against the tory baby face?
Never going to happen. South Island voters are more likely to vote and are more likely to vote traditionally. Act doesnt really have much support in farming areas and only gets traction in winning a seat in big city urban areas ( Wellington Central and Epsom)
That’s not to say the local Nat electorate committee won’t have a go. The candidate selection was a little bizarre, considering who they rejected, so there’s some lateral thinkers on that committee.
How it’s going to go with the electorate is another matter. You’re dead right ghost, very traditional, conservative people, they could be quite offended being asked to vote for Nicholson who didn’t last long at the Feds.
Also add in Queenstown to the mix. Affluent, intelligent, environmentally aware and very cosmopolitan. And quite liberal as well.
There’s two very different sides to this electorate, rural Southland and Wakatipu, neither are as conformist as Epsom.
If they do try for an ACT overhang it could blow up in their faces from all directions. We could be in for an entertaining campaign in the electorate for a change. They are usually such dour affairs it’s embarrassing.
Not particularly useful example numbers picked there. We can’t be sure Conservatives or Mana will win electorate seats, but it seems likely.
Also lumping MP in with the right bloc in a deadlock situation like this seems unwise, given their voting record in Parliament aligns much more with Labour than it does National.
Agree with your critique in the first paragraph, Lanth. But not in the second. I think in the scenario Rob paints above, both the Maori Party and NZ First are more likely to go with National. The Left Bloc (which, of course, doesn’t include NZ First) really needs to finish ahead of the Right if there’s to be any kind of pressure on Winnie to support a new Labour-led Government.
The Australians use a ‘two party preferred’ phrase as their preferential voting means minor party electorate votes arent wasted.
Both the MP and NZFirst have more in common with Labour than they do National.
Really it comes down to “who Winston can work with” and “what demands Winston makes”.
Who cares about what they have in common, its whether they are with the government or opposition.
No, it’s whether they’re in government and can do enough work there to show the public to convince the public to re-elect them.
That’s why in the potential results above the Maori Party are sitting at 1% with 1 electorate MP, down from the heady days of 5 seats they won in 2008.
The Maori Party might be slow learners, but Winston has been around long enough to know how the game goes.
I find your last two comments a little strange. I can’t see any reason to think the Maori Party and NZFirst have any more in common with Labour than National, and I certainly believe if they in fact do, it will not determine who they work with.
If National get 45% or over, I just can’t believe Winnie will dilute his power joining the Labour/Greens/Mana.
Happy to be proven wrong. But nothing I have seen has changed the fact Winnie holds the reins at the moment.
“I can’t see any reason to think the Maori Party and NZFirst have any more in common with Labour than National,”
You only have to look at their voting record in Parliament.
“I just can’t believe Winnie will dilute his power joining the Labour/Greens/Mana.”
Depends what he’s offered, doesn’t it? He’s hardly diluting his “power” if Labour offer him more power than National are prepared to.
Whether Labour are in a position to do that is a separate question.
The plausibility of the numbers doesn’t really affect the take home point though, which is that even without coat-tailing, gifting electoral seats to minor parties can still be an effective way of rorting the system.
Correct, but I don’t think many people are going to comment on that because there’s not much to say.
The evidence provided is unequivocal.
Well, you did criticise the numbers as “not particularly useful” – I would say they served their purpose – but yeah, fair enough. As much as I’d like to see a discussion about how the system could be fixed, I don’t see it happening. I certainly don’t have any decent ideas.
Greatly increase the proportionality of the electoral system by halving the threshold to 2.5% and ditching coat-tailing.
Some times things are simple but they are not easy to do. For every coattail deal Key does, Cunliffe needs to do one back. Possibly Key will not take Graig on board unless Cunliffe equals Key’s coattail deal.
The only way the Maori Party will survive is if Harawira does a coattail deal with a Maori electoral seat. Harawira needs to back Labour if Cunliffe is head strong about sticking to his no coattail principle.
Am I correct in thinking that the Green Party has never won an electorate seat unless a deal was made e.g Coromandel?
The Green Party need to be the strategic ones this time around, so the party vote does not play into the hands of National.
Too many players on the left riding their own horse, is what Key is counting on.
I think your reasoning is not entirely correct. The numbers of seats received by Labour, the Greens and NZ First should be the same in both cases because those are the numbers of seats their percentages entitle them to. ACT winning a seat in the second example would provide an overhang of one, giving National etc 60, but leaving Labour etc with 61.
No, the post is correct. It’s easy to think the system is simple or works in a particular way, but it’s actually backed up by a specific mathematical algorithm that can produce “surprising” results compared to how people think it should work intuitively.
Here are the two data sets using the Electoral Commision’s online calculator:
With no seat for Act: http://www.elections.org.nz/voting-system/mmp-voting-system/mmp-seat-allocation-calculator?asPercentage=1&partyName_0=ACT+New+Zealand&partyVote_0=0.5&electorateSeats_0=0&partyName_1=Alliance&partyVote_1=0&electorateSeats_1=0&partyName_2=Aotearoa+Legalise+Cannabis+Party&partyVote_2=0&electorateSeats_2=0&partyName_3=Conservative+Party&partyVote_3=2.2&electorateSeats_3=0&partyName_4=Democrats+for+Social+Credit&partyVote_4=0&electorateSeats_4=0&partyName_5=Green+Party&partyVote_5=11&electorateSeats_5=0&partyName_6=Labour+Party&partyVote_6=31&electorateSeats_6=29&partyName_7=Libertarianz&partyVote_7=0&electorateSeats_7=0&partyName_8=Mana&partyVote_8=2.3&electorateSeats_8=0&partyName_9=M%C4%81ori+Party&partyVote_9=1&electorateSeats_9=1&partyName_10=National+Party&partyVote_10=44.5&electorateSeats_10=40&partyName_11=New+Zealand+First+Party&partyVote_11=5.5&electorateSeats_11=0&partyName_12=United+Future&partyVote_12=0.5&electorateSeats_12=1&partyName_opt_0=Other+Party&partyVote_opt_0=0&electorateSeats_opt_0=0&partyName_opt_1=Other+Party&partyVote_opt_1=0&electorateSeats_opt_1=0&partyName_opt_2=Other+Party&partyVote_opt_2=0&electorateSeats_opt_2=0&partyCount=13&optPartyCount=3&action=Calculate+parliamentary+seats
With 1 seat for Act:
http://www.elections.org.nz/voting-system/mmp-voting-system/mmp-seat-allocation-calculator?asPercentage=1&partyName_0=ACT+New+Zealand&partyVote_0=0.5&electorateSeats_0=1&partyName_1=Alliance&partyVote_1=0&electorateSeats_1=0&partyName_2=Aotearoa+Legalise+Cannabis+Party&partyVote_2=0&electorateSeats_2=0&partyName_3=Conservative+Party&partyVote_3=2.2&electorateSeats_3=0&partyName_4=Democrats+for+Social+Credit&partyVote_4=0&electorateSeats_4=0&partyName_5=Green+Party&partyVote_5=11&electorateSeats_5=0&partyName_6=Labour+Party&partyVote_6=31&electorateSeats_6=29&partyName_7=Libertarianz&partyVote_7=0&electorateSeats_7=0&partyName_8=Mana&partyVote_8=2.3&electorateSeats_8=0&partyName_9=M%C4%81ori+Party&partyVote_9=1&electorateSeats_9=1&partyName_10=National+Party&partyVote_10=44.5&electorateSeats_10=39&partyName_11=New+Zealand+First+Party&partyVote_11=5.5&electorateSeats_11=0&partyName_12=United+Future&partyVote_12=0.5&electorateSeats_12=1&partyName_opt_0=Other+Party&partyVote_opt_0=0&electorateSeats_opt_0=0&partyName_opt_1=Other+Party&partyVote_opt_1=0&electorateSeats_opt_1=0&partyName_opt_2=Other+Party&partyVote_opt_2=0&electorateSeats_opt_2=0&partyCount=13&optPartyCount=3&action=Calculate+parliamentary+seats
You’ll see in both calculations National has a total of 57 seats, in the 2nd case it has 3 parters for a total of 60 seats, but in the first case it only has 2 partners for 59 seats, as per the figures in the post.
I did find the online calculator yesterday and had a thought about how it will look on 20 September.
A coalition partner for Key is down to coattailing and the algorithm being in his favour.
When ACT wins a seat the question of which party loses a seat would seem to be a matter of chance. In the example given it happens to be Labour but it could just as easily have been National, leaving them with only 56 seats. However ACT will always support the right, so the right will gain more often than not since it will not always be National that loses a seat.
I cringe when i think of the possibility of labour and or the greens helping to get act or dunne back in in ohariu and epsom. so they stand by their principles and stand in the seats, which looses the election for the left. Their principles will not be of any use to people on struggle street who need relief.
There needs to be a message from green and labour that, as a left win this year is critical for all of us, they will stand down julie ann or gareth or the labour guy in ohariu and epsom. sort it out labour and greens, don’t lose the election for all of us.