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Polity: Poll of polls update

Written By: - Date published: 7:30 am, July 22nd, 2014 - 30 comments
Categories: election 2014, polls - Tags:

polity_square_for_lynnReposted from Polity.

The poll of polls is up to date, including all four of this week’s snapshots. As readers know, I don’t like to sugarcoat this stuff, so to start with the obvious: The picture ain’t pretty if you want positive change in New Zealand. If there election where held today, the result would be a clear, comprehensive win for National, governing alone.

The full details are over at the poll of polls page, but below is the snapshot I did for Labour’s Congress of the two potential blocs of support, pitting [National | ACT | UF | Maori | Conservative] for the status quo against [Labour | Greens | NZF | InternetMANA], who represent change.

The chart shows the overall strength of the status quo bloc at around 54%, and the strength of the change bloc a little under 46%. Again, the picture ain’t pretty.

Two points, however, are worth noting:

  1. Around 1.5% of the status quo bloc vote will likely be wasted, cast for the Conservatives who are now unlikely to get a seat having had a WEG (Winston Electorate Gambit)1 driven between them and National. That brings the bloc-level gap down from over 8 points to around 7.
  2. Any gains Labour / others can make off National (who are soaring at usually unsustainably high levels right now) count double in terms of the gap. For example, 3% of the public switching from National to any of Labour/Greens/NZF/InternetMANA would shrink the gap from 7% to 1%.

This means the change bloc needs about a 4% gain vs the status quo bloc between now and election day to become viable. 2

Can the debates deliver 4%? Unlikely but possible, as many voters get their first prolonged exposure to David Cunliffe on his own terms. Key is an excellent debater, and will be tough to beat. But a draw in the debates serves the left’s purposes OK here, because it would showcase two potential Prime Ministers on equal footing.

Can a ground game deliver 4%? Not fully, but it can help. Ceiling estimates of gains-via-the-ground are around 2%, and because those gains will often come via mobilizing non-voters, rather than pinching someone else’s previous supporters, those gains only count single.

Does National have a history of losing 4% in recent campaigns? Yes – about 6 points, actually, in the final three months in 2008 and 2011. Now of course that does not guarantee a threepeat of the same phenomenon. But it does suggest National’s crew are not the best street-level campaigners out there.

The change bloc goes into the campaign proper as heavy underdogs. We absolutely know that. But all the headlines focusing only on Labour, one of four parties in the bloc, mask a broader situation where possible victory is four points away.

 


 

  1. First!
  2. I rounded it up to 4% to cover off the slight party vote quotient distortions caused by the ACT and UF deals.

 

See also

30 comments on “Polity: Poll of polls update”

  1. swordfish 1

    I’m just a day away from posting on something quite similar on Sub-Zero Politics (just a touch of blog-whoring, there). So, I’ll keep my powder dry.

    But I will say I both agree and somewhat disagree with Rob on various aspects, here.

    I’d suggest, for a start, that the Left Bloc is in a significantly better situation in terms of polling now than we were in 2011. You wouldn’t know it, of course, from some of the more outrageous hyperbolic rhetoric indulged in by various leading political journos over recent weeks. Combined with the relentless attacks on Cunliffe (bordering at times on outright character assassination) and the deliberate sense of crisis that this invokes, I think your average voter could be forgiven for assuming the Left is in a far weaker position than we were in the lead-up to the last Election. (Chris Trotter’s “Labour are bereft of hope” comment to the MSM probably doesn’t help much either). Nothing, in fact, could be further from the truth. There is no doubt that the Left are trailing, let’s be clear about that, but the gap is narrower than most would assume. There needs to be much less emphasis on the fact that Labour is in the 20s (almost the entire focus of the MSM) and much more emphasis on where the respective Left and Right Blocs are in the polls.

    “Does National have a history of losing 4% in recent campaigns ? Yes – about 6 points, actually, in the final three months in 2008 and 2011.”

    By “6 points”, Rob is presumably averaging out 08 and 11. According to my figures:

    2011 National Party Monthly Poll Averages
    August 54% (7 points higher than in Nov 2011 Election)
    September 55% (8 points higher)
    October 54% (7 points higher)
    So, a bigger drop for National in 2011 than just 6 percentage points.

    2008 National Party Monthly Poll Averages
    August 49% (4 points higher)
    September 49% (4 points higher)
    Early-Mid October 48% (3 points higher)
    So, somewhat less than a 6-point drop.

    More importantly, though, support for the Right Bloc as a whole was also down at both Elections relative its support 2 or 3 months out – down 4-6 points in 2011 (depending on which month you’re looking at) and down 2-3 points in 2008.

    I’m not sure, though, that I agree with Rob’s implicit suggestion that National’s fall over the final few months was a consequence of “National’s crew (not being)…the best street-level campaigners out there.” I think there are better theories than that. And they’re ones that make a repeat of these nose-dives in support much more likely (but, like I say, I’ll keep my powder dry for now).

    • Ad 1.1

      Don’t be put out Swordfish – it’s great to have two competent analysts on the good team.

      • swordfish 1.1.1

        Cheers, Ad. I certainly wouldn’t say I’m put out, though. I’ve got a lot of respect for Rob’s succinct analyses. (He, I and Jon Johansson were in the same year at Vic Pol Sci, incidently. We did many of the same papers. Always knew both Jon and Rob would do well). But I think it is important to have a bit of critical dialogue going on. After all, it’s what The Standard’s all about !

    • @Swordfish. Thanks for the comment. My “dropping 6 points” calcs are based on the average of the polls takes around 90 days prior to election day, not on the monthly averages in each of the final three months as you have presented here. That is why we get to different answers, I think. My calcs are here: http://polity.co.nz/content/national-dropped-6-2008-2011-campaigns-0

    • Tamati 1.3

      You can’t establish a trend using two data points. Anyone who really thinks they can estimate poll ‘bias’ are only kidding themselves. It’s entirely likely the pollsters have already changed their methodology to reflect the errors in 2011.

      • McFlock 1.3.1

        well, assuming they did the same process in 2011 to reflect the errors in 2008, there wasn’t much success there.

        I think it’s foolish to nmake a bold claim that “the nats will drop x%”, but two collections of three datapoints being consistently off would seem to indicate a bias in the polls.

        When a comparable shift from right to combined-leftish based on current poll results would make the election too close to call, however, it’s probably fairly reasonable to argue that the election is by no means as much of a shoe-in as the current polls suggest.

      • swordfish 1.3.2

        @ Tamati

        Who said anything about poll bias ?

        And if the pollsters can’t be sure that the discrepancy was down to poll bias, then why would they change their methodology ?

        Like I say, there are more useful theories for explaining the two consecutive nose-dives experienced by National and the Right.

  2. “As readers know, I don’t like to sugarcoat this stuff…”

    Only to the minimum, credibility-preserving extent necessary, it seems. For example, you (rightly) exclude the so-called Conservatives arguing that their projected 1.5% of the vote will be a wasted vote for the “status quo” bloc.

    But what’s the basis for your assumption that New Zealand First is going to make it back into Parliament? Your own model shows that party is sitting on 4.3% of the vote.

    Is it because “It’s a mathematical certainty that Winston’s vote will ramp up during the campaign, because it did in 2011 (even though it didn’t really do that in 2008 or 2005)?”

    • swordfish 2.1

      “But what’s the basis for your assumption that New Zealand First is going to make it back into Parliament ? Your own model shows that party is sitting on 4.3% of the vote…Is it because “It’s a mathematical certainty that Winston’s vote will ramp up during the campaign, because it did in 2011 (even though it didn’t really do that in 2008 or 2005)?”

      I partly agree with you in that 2011 was the only recent Election where NZ First did spectacularly better than its polling had indicated (despite widespread claims to the contrary). But the fact remains that in 2008 it also received more than its pre-Election polling would have had us believe – albeit a rather more modest discrepancy than 3 years later. NZ First’s monthly poll average was usually 3% in 2008 (ie for most months, 4% in a minority of months). They ended up above 4%, so we’re talking an increase of 1 point or so.

      This year, Peters’ Party has been averaging anywhere between 4-6 points (depending on which month you’re looking at) so, overall, quite a bit better than in 08 when they fell short of the 5% hurdle. I certainly think (like Rob) that it’s far more likely than not that NZ First will top the 5% mark. Whether it’ll get above 6% is an entirely different matter.

      • Liam Hehir 2.1.1

        Fair enough – although so did the ACT Party (whose improvement never seems to be priced into the equation in the same way).

        But I can’t buy into the certainty that Winston will always come through because there have been two occasuibs when his party didn’t cross the threshold – and there is the fact that NZF did worse than most polling had it in 2005.

        I believe the late breaking for Winston in 2011 really comes down to three things:. 1) the unpopular asset sales programme; 2) John Key getting badly rattled about the teapot tapes and 3) the bad decision of Vote for Change to make the referendum all about Winston Peters (this being the most minor of the factors).

        I’m not saying nothing of a similar nature emerging in 2014, but it’s a not a given anyway. It’s certainly a big, unwarranted assumption.

        • Shrubbery 2.1.1.1

          The problem with Winston Peters is that he just has to get on tv and repeat phrases like “too much immigration” or “hard-working New Zealanders” or “common-sense policies” and he gets to 5% almost by magic. (That worked for Peter Dunne once too – he used the word sensible every third sentence, and ping! 6%!)

    • blue leopard 2.2

      Gavin White from UMR analysed the polls and concluded NZ First is the party that is underestimated the most by the polls

      http://sayit.co.nz/blog/what-political-polls-tell-us

      Perhaps that is why Salmond assumes they will get back in again.

  3. Lanthanide 3

    I pointed out iPredict’s current percentages yesterday, will do so again today to get more airtime.

    National is at 44%, Labour at 31%, Greens at 11% and Other parties at 14%, NZFirst in turn is at 5.2%, Conservatives 3.5% and IMP at 2.2%

    Given iPredict is largely seen as being biased towards the right, I think this is a very interesting result as it actually shows the ‘change bloc’ ahead of the ‘status quo bloc’.

    Strangely given these party percentages, Labour to be the next government is only around 19% or so, when the raw numbers above (especially if Conservatives don’t win an electorate) favour the left.

  4. Chooky 4

    …all i can say is that Hooton is sounding a wee bit excited and hysterical of late ….and keeps urging that Labour must ditch David Cunliffe….i take this as a sign

    • “Oh please Brer Fox, whatever you do, please don’t throw me into the briar patch.”

      • Chooky 4.1.1

        Possum’s best PR advice to Labour…Reinstate Shearer!….lol

        ….shows how scared they are of the televised debates between Cunliffe and Key!

        ( and good on Cunliffe for taking a holiday with his family….nothing gives perspective and energises as much as a holiday!…this guy has got staying power!)

        • Kiwiri 4.1.1.1

          General question for anyone who has the info:
          When are the televised debates?
          How many of them?
          What will the format be – in addition to the two major party leaders debating, will there be debates that include leaders of other parties?

  5. ianmac 5

    And let’s not forget the Undecided. About 11% in one of the recent polls I think.

    • swordfish 5.1

      Yep, but the thing is to get the Undecideds out on Election Day, Ian. They may have a disproportionate tendency to be Left-leaning (as I’ve argued elsewhere) but unfortunately they also have a disproportionate tendency to be among the stay-at-homes on Election Day.

      I should also add that the benefits from any potential mobilisation of Undecideds may be even better than the 11% figure, Ian. You’re probably thinking of the Herald-Digi Undecided figure, but it’s higher than that in a number of other polls – mid-to-late teens. (Both Roy Morgan, in particular, and Herald-Digi traditionally record a lower Undecided rate than other polls).

  6. James 6

    I just love the fact that it is always assumed on this blog at least that Winston will go with the Greens / Labour / Kim Dotcom.

    If he passes 5% I dont think he will.

    • Lanthanide 6.1

      His recent policy announcements, and stance on state asset sales (buy them back), are much more Labour-friendly than they are National.

      • lurgee 6.1.1

        National will probably be able to offer him far more baubles as they won’t have to share so many out to other parties.

        Winston will also be aware of the likely opprobrium he would receive for putting a deeply unloved Labour Party and a cabal of environmental radicalists (as his supporters would likely see them) into power.

        I reckon it is a near certainty that Winston will go with National.

  7. fender 7

    “Key is an excellent debater, and will be tough to beat.”

    I concede he is great at diversion, telling fibs, screwing selected data and making lame personal attacks but I can’t agree there’s any excellence going on when his cake-hole moves.

    This is where I expect the greater intelligence and skills of Cunliffe to excel, but of course it requires viewers to be able to recognise what is important and sadly it seems around 54% can’t tell the difference.

  8. Tom Gould 8

    Picking over the polling entrails might be interesting, but you cannot get away from the harsh reality that Labour has dropped consistently since about September last year but more so this year. Now the only hope offered is the speculation that Cunliffe will out-debate Key at the finishing line and somehow the public will start to like and listen to him? Great strategy, folks.

    • McFlock 8.1

      To a certain degree the likelihood of making this the first nat government to not survive three elections always relied on the nats losing their turd-polish rather than any of the left parties being objectively better (let’s face it, they pretty much already are).

      One thing I like about the current Labour/left lineup is that they finally seem to have said “fuck it” and aren’t letting the media drive their policies or activities, because whatever Labour and co do, they’ll be shafted by fearfucks.

  9. Liberal Realist 9

    @Tom Gould,

    Whilst I have to agree with you that Labour has consistently dropped in the polls in the last year don’t you think that the ‘harsh reality’ is that they’ve been screwed by ongoing nakedly bias attacks from MSM?

    JK could literally tell NZ to get fucked and suck it and Nact will still receive 40% or more of the vote due to a combination of political ignorance (I vote for the right, badge of success stuff) and the media gloss over & whitewash + a bit of Slater hatespeak / distraction…

  10. lurgee 10

    The worrying thing is that the more people talk about ‘left blocs’ and coalitions, the more the left bloc vote shrinks. I think people actually want a Labour Party that looks like a party capable of winning power, not one that has to be pushed across the line by a substantial ‘minor’ partner. I guess we don’t like in a true MMP environment yet.

  11. Crunchtime 11

    Fairfax et al are doing a brazen hackjob of demonising the left and basically constructing headlines and articles based around nat quotes. It’s gotten much worse recently, and the polls indicate it’s working.

    Labour do seem remarkably flat-footed when it comes to countering this. They need to be better at telling their own story and countering the outright slander and lies. How effective they could possibly be vs a single-minded media smear campaign is a big question.

    Restoration of real journalism with real integrity is something that needs serious attention.

    • aerobubble 11.1

      Rubbish. Go after Fairfax income. By emphasizing how biased media no longer supports businesses and the economy, actively harms the economy. Go after Fairfax base like you would the National base. Explain how farmers were duped into paying too much for farmland, how home owners duped into buying crap homes, how the economy is run by a bunch of sit on their hands and waffle types, because really, NZ is rich, and letting it slide is pretty much the norm here. Talk up how brilliant we are, is just shining the turd again and again.

  12. lurgee 12

    Wonder why this thread only attracted a handful of comments?

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  • Class, Identity Politics and Transgender Ideology
    by Deirdre O’Neill Under Thatcher and then Blair and continuing up until our contemporary moment, the working class has seen its culture slowly and progressively destroyed. The change from an industrial society to a service society produced a marked shift in focus from the working class as the backbone of ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 week ago
  • Irony
    Since 2013, the Australian government has detained refugees without trial in Pacific gulags, where they are abused, tortured, and driven to suicide. The policy is not just an abuse of human rights and possible crime against humanity; it has also had a corrosive effect on the states Australia uses as ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • An age of protest.
    It seems fair to say that we currently live in a problematic political moment in world history. Democracies are in decline and dictatorships are on the rise. Primordial, sectarian and post-modern divisions have re-emerged, are on the rise or have been accentuated by political evolutions of the moment such as ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    1 week ago
  • Another captured agency
    Last month, Greenpeace head Russel Norman surrendered his speaking slot at an EPA conference to student climate activist Sorcha Carr, who told the EPA exactly what she thought of them. It was a bold move, which confronted both regulators and polluters (or, as the EPA calls them, "stakeholders") with the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • NZ First’s dodgy loans
    The core principle supposedly underlying New Zealand's electoral finance regime is transparency: parties can accept large donations from rich people wanting to buy policy, but only if they tell the public they've been bought. Most parties abide by this, so we know that TOP was wholly-owned by Gareth Morgan, and ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Member’s Day: The choice on End of Life Choice
    Today is a Member's Day, probably the second-to-last one of the year, and its a big one, with the Third Reading of David Seymour's End of Life Choice Bill. last Member's Day it was reported back from committee, after MPs voted narrowly to make it subject to a (rules TBA) ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • How growth in population and consumption drives planetary change
    Climate Explained is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, please send it to climate.change@stuff.co.nz The growth of the human population over the last 70 ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    1 week ago
  • The disappearing Women …
    by The Council of Disobedient Women In her excellent oral submission to the Abortion reform select committee on 31st October on behalf of Otago University’s Department of Public Health, historian and public health researcher Hera Cook stated: “We would ask that the committee not use the term ‘pregnant persons’ and ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • “A Passage to India”: enduring art in changing times
    by Don Franks In 1957, E M Forster wrote, of his greatest work: “The India described in ‘A Passage to India’ no longer exists either politically or socially. Change had begun even at the time the book was published ( 1924) and during the following quarter of a century it ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • Contemptuous
    The Referendums Framework Bill was due back from select committee today. But there's no report on it. Instead, the bill has been bounced back to the House under Standing order 29593) because the Committee didn't bother to produce one. They probably tried. But given the membership of the committee (which ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Zero Carbon: It’s not just a good idea, it’s the law
    Two years into New Zealand’s Labour-led government, the long-delayed Zero Carbon Bill became law on 7 November. Passed essentially unanimously, the lengthy public debates and political manoeuvring faded away until the final passage was even anticlimactic: Flipping through the @nzstuff @DomPost I was starting to wonder if I’d dreamt ...
    SciBlogsBy Robert McLachlan
    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: What happens next?
    Now the Zero Carbon Bill is law, what's next? Obviously, the ETS changes currently before select committee are going to be the next battleground. But we're also going to get a good idea of where we're going, and if the progress the Zero Carbon Act promises is good enough, during ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Climate change will fuel bush fires
    Grant Pearce The effects of the current Australian bushfires in New South Wales and Queensland (and also again in California) are devastating and far-reaching. To date, the fires have resulted in several lives being lost and many homes and properties destroyed. Here in New Zealand, the impacts have been only ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    1 week ago
  • Participation rates
    A passing comment in a post the other day about the labour force participation rates of older people prompted me to pull down the fuller data and see what we could see about various participation rates over the decades since the HLFS began in 1986.   As it happens, the ...
    SciBlogsBy Michael Reddell
    1 week ago
  • Not So Much “OK Boomer” As “OK Ruling Class”.
    Distract And Divert: The rise of what we have come to call “Identity Politics” represents the ideological manifestation of the ruling class’s objective need to destroy class politics, and of the middle-class’s subjective need to justify their participation in the process.THE RELIEF of the ruling class can only be imagined. ...
    1 week ago
  • Asking for it …
    "I saw a newspaper picture,From the political campaignA woman was kissing a child,Who was obviously in pain.She spills with compassion,As that young child'sFace in her hands she gripsCan you imagine all that greed and avariceComing down on that child's lips?" ...
    1 week ago
  • New Zealand’s Poor Pandemic Preparedness According to the Global Health Security Index
    Dr Matt Boyd, Prof Michael Baker, Prof Nick Wilson The Global Health Security Index which considers pandemic threats has just been published. Unfortunately, NZ scores approximately half marks (54/100), coming in 35th in the world rankings – far behind Australia. This poor result suggests that the NZ Government needs to ...
    SciBlogsBy Public Health Expert
    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: Thank Winston
    The Zero Carbon Act is inadequate, with a weak methane target designed to give farmers a free ride. But it turns out it could have been worse: Climate Change Minister James Shaw was so desperate to get National on board, he wanted to gut that target, and leave it in ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Illicit markets and Bali Booze
    The Herald reprints an Australian story on a couple of tragic deaths in Bali from drinking cocktails that had methanol in them.  The story argues that methanol is likely the result of home distillation. But what the young tourists were experiencing was far from a hangover. They’d consumed a toxic cocktail ...
    SciBlogsBy Eric Crampton
    1 week ago
  • This is not what armed police are for
    Last month, the police announced a trial of specialist roaming armed units, which would drive round (poor, brown) areas in armoured SUVs, armed to the teeth. When they announced the trial, they told us it was about having armed police "ready to attend major incidents at any time if needed". ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Spain’s failed electoral gamble
    Spain went to the polls today in the second elections this year, after the Socialists (who had come to power in a confidence vote, then gone to the polls in April) rejected the offer of a coalition with the left-wing PoDemos, and instead decided to gamble n a better outcome ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • The astroturf party
    National has finally rolled out its "BlueGreen" astroturf party, fronted by an array of former nats and people who were dumped by the Greens for not being Green enough. Its initial pitch is described by Stuff as "very business-friendly", and its priorities are what you'd expect: conservation, predator-free funding, a ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • How to cheat at university
    A couple of days ago I attended (and spoke at) the University of Waikato’s “LearnFest” event. There were lots of talks and sessions on very diverse aspects of teaching, mostly at tertiary level. One was by Myra Williamson from Te Piringa Faculty of Law here at Waikato, on Contract Cheating ...
    SciBlogsBy Marcus Wilson
    1 week ago
  • How NZ was put on world maps using a transit of Mercury
    There will be a transit of Mercury – the planet Mercury will pass across the face of the Sun – taking place at sunrise in New Zealand on Tuesday, 12th November. It was by observing such an event 250 years ago that James Cook and his scientist colleagues were able ...
    SciBlogsBy Duncan Steel
    2 weeks ago
  • Georgina Beyer: We need to be able to talk without being offended
    Since becoming the world’s first openly transexual mayor and member of parliament, Georgina Beyer has been recognised as a trailblazer for trans rights. Daphna Whitmore talks with her about where she sees the current trans movement We start out talking about legislation the government put on hold that would have ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • The anti-fluoride brigade won’t be erecting billboards about this study
    If FFNZ really put their faith in “Top Medical Journals” they would now be amending their billboards to recognise new research results. Image from FFNZ but updated to agree with the latest research. ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Chosen To Rule? What Sort Of Christian Is Chris Luxon?
    National Messiah? Chris Luxon identifies himself as an evangelical Christian. If he is genuine in this self-characterisation, then he will take every opportunity his public office provides to proselytise on behalf of his faith. He will also feel obliged to bear witness against beliefs and practices he believes to be ...
    2 weeks ago
  • War of the worms
    I'm going to make a Reckless Prediction™ that the Tories have 'topped out' in the 'poll of polls' / Britain Elects multipoll tracker at about 38%, and in the next week we will start to see Labour creep up on them.In fact, we might just be seeing the start of ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Marvelly shows us how to be a feminist without feminism
    by The Council of Disobedient Women Lizzie Marvelly: “I may have missed this… has @afterellen gone all terf-y? Or am I reading something incorrectly? “ https://twitter.com/LizzieMarvelly/status/1191840059105742849 After Ellen is a lesbian website that is unashamedly pro-lesbian, as you’d expect. So why is Ms Marvelly so bothered about lesbians having their ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • Out of the past – Tories to revive racist laws from the 16th century
    Did you know there once was a time when it was illegal to be a gypsy (aka Romani) in Britain?That was between 1530, when the Egyptians Act was passed, and 1856, when it was repealed.Amongst other things, the act forbade the entry of 'Egyptians' into England, ordered those already there ...
    2 weeks ago
  • 1000 of these now
    Some days I sit and think, “what will I write…?” What do you say when you get to 1000 posts? Maybe you just start where you are, diverge to where this all began, then offer a collection of reader’s favourite posts, and a few of your own? (And throw in ...
    SciBlogsBy Grant Jacobs
    2 weeks ago
  • Has Shane Jones Just Saved NZ First?
    Counter-Puncher: The “activists” and “radicals” (his own words) from the Indian community who took such strong exception to Shane Jones’ remarks about Immigration NZ’s treatment of arranged marriages, may end up bitterly regretting their intervention. Jones is not the sort of person who turns the other cheek to his critics.SHANE ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Climate Change: As predicted
    Yesterday, when National voted for the Zero Carbon Bill, I predicted they'd gut it the moment they regained power, just as they had done to the ETS. And indeed, they have explicitly promised to do exactly that within their first hundred days in office. What would their amendments do? Abandon ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Let this never be forgot
    In the spirit of Remember, remember the fifth of November, let's keep this in mind FOREVER.
    Oh dear. Extraordinary interview on PM with Andrew Bridgen and @EvanHD just now. Bridgen was defending Jacob Rees Mogg’s Grenfell comments. Evan asked him if JRM had meant to say he would have left ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Too Late To Change Capitalism’s Flightpath?
    Collision Course? In conditions of ideological white-out, the international bankers’ “Woop-Woop! Pull Up!” warning may have come too late to save global capitalism.WHAT DOES IT MEAN when international bankers are more willing to embrace radical solutions than our politicians and their electors? At both the International Monetary Fund and the ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Whooping cough vaccine works well despite its imperfections
    Pertussis (whooping cough) is a conundrum. It is a disease that was described hundreds of years ago and the bacteria that causes it (Bordetella pertussis) isolated in 1906. We have had vaccines for about 80 years but this disease is defiant in the face of human immunity. I wanted to ...
    SciBlogsBy Helen Petousis Harris
    2 weeks ago
  • Climate Change: Passed
    The Zero Carbon Bill has just passed its third reading, uanimously. In the end, National supported it - but we all know they'll turn around and gut it the moment they regain power. Meanwhile, I guess ACT's David Seymour didn't even bother to show up. I am on record as ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago

  • New high tech traps will reduce the need for 1080 poison
    New Zealand First are celebrating the announcement of an investment of $3.5 million into five new trapping devices. These are a range of bait and trap devices, all designed to be left unattended for long periods of time. NZ First conservation spokesperson Jenny Marcroft says that this latest development will ...
    3 hours ago
  • Cowboy clampers will be stymied
    Clayton Mitchell, Spokesperson for Consumer Affairs The ‘wheel clamping’ Bill that will cap clamper fees to $100 passed its third reading in Parliament today. New Zealand First welcomes The Land Transport (Wheel Clamping) Amendment Bill to combat predatory wheel clamping behaviour in what is currently a largely unregulated business. Cowboy clampers are: gouging ...
    1 day ago
  • Mental Health Commission back on track
    Jenny Marcroft, Spokesperson for Health New Zealand First welcomes the passage of the Mental Health and Wellbeing Commission Bill through its first reading in Parliament. “Today’s progress takes serious action on the mental health and addiction crisis the country is facing,” says New Zealand First Health Spokesperson Jenny Marcroft. “The re-establishment ...
    1 day ago
  • New Zealand’s key assets are not for sale: national interest test delivered
    Mark Patterson, Spokesperson for Primary Industries Today the Government announced the delivery of the promise to protect New Zealand interests by applying a new National Interest Test to the sales of our most sensitive and high risk assets to overseas buyers. This further strengthening of the Overseas Investment Act will ...
    2 days ago
  • National interest test added to protect New Zealanders’ interests
    The Coalition Government is delivering on its promise to protect New Zealanders’ interests by applying a new national interest test to the sales of our most sensitive and high-risk assets to overseas buyers. Under current Overseas Investment Act (OIA) rules, assets such as ports and airports, telecommunications infrastructure, electricity and ...
    2 days ago
  • Electoral law breach allegations
    Rt Winston Peters, Leader of New Zealand First Allegations raised this morning by Stuff Limited / Fairfax concern a party matter but I am confident that New Zealand First has operated within electoral laws, now and for the last 27 years. Declarable donations were declared to the Electoral Commission. Our ...
    2 days ago
  • Wayne Brown hits back at critics: Ports of Auckland has to move
    The chairman of the Upper North Island Supply Chain Strategy (UNISCS) working group, Wayne Brown, has hit back at critics of his group’s recommendations to relocate the Ports of Auckland cargo operations to Whangarei’s deepwater port of Northport. The working group's recommendation to close Auckland waterfront to all but cruise ...
    3 days ago
  • Week That Was: Supporting our schools
    We're setting our young people up for success, investing in education around the country.  ...
    3 days ago
  • Kiwis to have their say on End of Life Choice
    Jenny Marcroft MP, Spokesperson for Health New Zealand First backs the public to decide on the End of Life Choice Bill via a referendum at the 2020 General Election. The Bill, with New Zealand First’s referendum provision incorporated, passed its final reading in Parliament this evening. New Zealand First Spokesperson for ...
    1 week ago
  • Addressing miscarriages of justice
    Darroch Ball, Spokesperson for Justice New Zealand First is proud that a key Coalition Agreement commitment which will provide for a more transparent and effective criminal justice system has been realised. Legislation to establish the Criminal Cases Review Commission, an independent body focused on identifying and responding to possible miscarriages of ...
    1 week ago
  • Week That Was: Historic action on climate change
    "Today we have made a choice that will leave a legacy... I hope that means that future generations will see that we, in New Zealand, were on the right side of history." - Jacinda Ardern, Third Reading of the Zero Carbon Bill ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Tax-free deployments for Kiwi troops
    Darroch Ball, New Zealand First List MP A Member’s bill has been proposed that would provide income tax exemptions for all New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) personnel while on operational deployment overseas. The Income Tax (Exemption for Salary or Wages of NZDF Members on Active Deployment) Amendment Bill proposed by New Zealand First ...
    2 weeks ago
  • A balanced Zero Carbon Bill passed
    Rt Hon Winston Peters, New Zealand First Leader New Zealand First is proud to have brought common sense to the Climate Change Response (Zero Carbon) Amendment Bill, which passed its final reading in Parliament today. Party Leader Rt Hon Winston Peters says months of hard work went into negotiating a balanced ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Paramedics’ status to be recognised
    Jenny Marcroft MP, Spokesperson for Health New Zealand First has listened to calls to recognise paramedics as registered health professionals under the Health Practitioners’ Competence Assurance Act (the Act). Today, the Coalition Government announced plans for paramedics to be registered as health practitioners under the Act, and the establishment of a ...
    2 weeks ago

  • Otago Regional Council given deadline for freshwater management plan
    A four-month investigation by former Environment Court judge Professor Peter Skelton found that Otago’s freshwater planning system is not fit for purpose to manage the region’s rivers, lakes and aquifers and that the Council has inadequate rules for the taking of water and the discharge of nutrients.   “Existing planning provisions ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 hours ago
  • LGNZ Rural and Provincial Sector Speech
      Introduction Thank you for the invitation to speak to you today. This is the first opportunity I’ve had to speak to an LGNZ meeting since the local elections, and I’m delighted to see the fresh faces of newly elected mayors. To returning mayors here today, as well as chief ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 hours ago
  • New Zealand to attend G20 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Japan
    Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters departs New Zealand today to attend the G20 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Nagoya at the invitation of this year’s G20 President, Japan. “This is the first time New Zealand will attend a G20 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting and we are deeply honoured that it is at ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 hours ago
  • Ambassador to the European Union announced
    Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters today announced the appointment of diplomat Carl Reaich as New Zealand’s next Ambassador to the European Union. “The Ambassador to the EU is one of the most important and senior roles in New Zealand’s foreign service, advocating for New Zealand’s interests with the EU institutions,” Mr ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 hours ago
  • New inventions boost Predator Free 2050 effort
        Innovation and technology are behind five new tools to give nature a helping hand by helping eliminate predators, funded through the Provincial Growth Fund (PGF), Minister for Conservation Eugenie Sage and Parliamentary Under-Secretary for Regional Economic Development Fletcher Tabuteau announced today. “The new tools will be trialled in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 hours ago
  • APEC 2021 Bill passes first reading
    Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters has welcomed the first reading of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation 2021 (APEC 2021) Bill in Parliament today. The temporary bill supports New Zealand’s security preparations for hosting the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Forum in 2021. “APEC is the leading economic and trade forum ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    22 hours ago
  • Making progress for our kids
    The Government is making progress on improving the wellbeing of the one million New Zealanders under the age of 18,” Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said on World Children’s Day. The Government has today recommitted to the most widely ratified human rights treaty in history – the United Nation’s Convention on ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Māori women in business contribute to our economy, whānau and communities
    Minister for Women Julie Anne Genter has released a new report celebrating the contribution of Māori women in business across Aotearoa New Zealand. “Māori women are leaders in our communities, they employ many people and support our economy and our communities,” Julie Anne Genter said. The report, Ngā wāhine kaipakihi: ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Two schools on the way for Omokoroa
    Four parcels of land have been bought in Omokoroa, in the Western Bay of Plenty District, for an education facility that will accommodate both a primary and secondary school on a campus-like facility, Education Minister Chris Hipkins said today. Two parcels were acquired from private land owners and two were ...
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    1 day ago
  • Families Package helps over 1 million New Zealanders in first year
    1 million New Zealanders warmed by the Winter Energy Payment 36,000 families bank the Best Start Payment in first year 6,000 more families received the Family Tax Credit, 220,600 in total   They receive an increase too – from an average of $117 to $157 a week for Inland Revenue clients, ...
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    1 day ago
  • Clamp down on wheel clamping passes third reading
    New rules to clamp down on overzealous wheel clamping and extortionate fees charged in order to release a vehicle have passed their final stage in Parliament today. The Land Transport (Wheel Clamping) Amendment Bill has now passed its third reading. “These changes mean $100 will be the maximum wheel clamping ...
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    2 days ago
  • Mental Health and Wellbeing Commission Bill passes first hurdle
    An independent Mental Health and Wellbeing Commission is a step closer after it unanimously passed its first vote in Parliament today.  The Mental Health and Wellbeing Commission Bill lays the groundwork for establishing the Commission as a fully independent crown entity – delivering on a key recommendation of He Ara ...
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    2 days ago
  • Boosting border security with electronic travel authority – now over 500,000 issued
    We’ve improved border security with the NZeTA, New Zealand Electronic Travel Authority, which helps us to screen travellers for border and immigration risks off-shore before they travel to New Zealand. It was launched in August and became mandatory on 1 October 2019. More than 500,000 NZeTAs have been issued since ...
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    2 days ago
  • Plan of action to protect seabirds
    A proposed national plan of action to reduce the number of seabirds caught in fisheries is being circulated for public feedback. Fisheries Minister Stuart Nash and Conservation Minister Eugenie Sage say New Zealand is a global centre of seabird diversity with about 145 species in our waters. It has more ...
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    2 days ago
  • National interest test added to overseas investment rules
    The Government is delivering on its promise to protect New Zealanders’ interests by applying a new national interest test to the sales of our most sensitive and high risk assets to overseas buyers. Associate Finance Minister David Parker said under current Overseas Investment Act rules, assets such as ports and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • New housing part of support for Kaumātua
    The Government is building special housing to accommodate one of Aotearoa’s greatest taonga- our kaumātua, says the Minister for Māori Development, Hon Nanaia Mahuta.  Speaking at a National Kaumātua Service Providers Conference in Rotorua today, the Minister reinforced the importance kaumātua play in maintaining and passing on mātauranga Māori, knowledge, ...
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    2 days ago
  • Forestry helps prisoners into jobs
    Eleven men from a pilot forestry training programme for prisoners in Northland now have full time jobs or job offers upon release, Corrections Minister Kelvin Davis and Forestry Minister Shane Jones announced today. The ‘release to work’ programme was a collaboration between Te Uru Rākau and the Department of Corrections, ...
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    2 days ago
  • Reform of public service a step closer
    Minister of State Services Chris Hipkins today introduced into Parliament a Bill that will make it easier for the public service to tackle the biggest challenges facing Governments. The Bill represents the most significant change in the public service in 30 years. The State Sector Act 1988 will be repealed ...
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    3 days ago
  • Donations scheme to relieve pressure on families
    The families of more than 416,000 students will be better off next year as their schools have signed up to the Government’s donations scheme, Education Minister Chris Hipkins said today. The scheme will see almost $62.5 million in additional Government funding go to schools nationwide next year. “I’m really pleased ...
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    3 days ago
  • Further support for Samoan measles outbreak
    Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters has announced further support as the Government of Samoa responds to a serious measles outbreak. “New Zealand will deploy a further 18 vaccination nurses, bringing the total to 30 working in Samoa over the next four weeks,” Mr Peters said. “A New Zealand Medical Assistance ...
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    3 days ago
  • Speech to the Child Poverty Action Group 2019 Summit
      Fa’atalofa atu, malo e lelei, Kia ora koutou katoa Thank you to the Child Poverty Action Group for asking me to be here today to provide an update on some of the things that have been happening across my the social development portfolio.  Can I firstly acknowledge the vast ...
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    3 days ago
  • Speech to the New Zealand Thoroughbred Racing Annual Conference
    ***Please check against delivery*** Good morning everyone. It is a pleasure to be with you this morning to open this year’s New Zealand Thoroughbred Racing Conference and AGM. Firstly, thank you Dr Alan Jackson, NZTR Chair for your introduction. And let us acknowledge also: The NZTR Board; Dean McKenzie, Chair ...
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  • Fairer rules for tenants and landlords
    The Government has delivered on its promise to the over one million New Zealanders who now rent to make it fairer and more secure, Associate Minister of Housing (Public Housing) Kris Faafoi has announced today. Both renters and landlords will benefit from the suite of practical changes to the Residential ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Two decades of marine protection celebrated at Te Tapuwae o Rongokako in Tairawhiti
    A marine conservation milestone - the 20th anniversary of the establishment of Te Tapuwae o Rongokako Marine Reserve - is being celebrated today at a community event in Tairāwhiti/East Coast attended by the Minister of Conservation, Eugenie Sage. “The creation of this marine reserve in November 1999 was a game ...
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    5 days ago
  • Food industry asked to step up fight against obesity
         The Government is asking the food industry to step up work to tackle obesity including reducing sugar, fat and salt in their products, better information for consumers, and tighter restrictions on advertising to children. Health Minister David Clark and Food Safety Minister Damien O’Connor have responded to a ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Modern emergency care for Queenstown area
    ew, modern emergency department and outpatient facilities at Queenstown’s Lakes District Hospital mean better emergency care for the growing tourist mecca’s visitors and locals, says Health Minister David Clark. Today Dr Clark officially opened the hospital’s redeveloped Emergency Department and Outpatient facilities. The new facilities include: •    An extended Emergency Department ...
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    6 days ago
  • Contraception important for New Zealanders
    Associate Health Minister Julie Anne Genter says today’s release of sexual and reproductive health data reinforces the significance of the Government’s commitment to providing free or very low-cost contraception. The Ministry of Health today published statistics from the Ministry of Health’s 2014/15 Health Survey. “It is important people can make ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • NZ medical staff and measles vaccines going to Samoa
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced that at the request of the Samoan Government, New Zealand will be providing further support to Samoa as it faces a worsening measles outbreak. “In response to a request from the people of Samoa, New Zealand is providing 3000 measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) ...
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    6 days ago
  • Disability Action Plan 2019 – 2023
    “The new Disability Action Plan 2019–2023 moves us towards the inclusive and accessible New Zealand that this government has committed to,” Minister for Disability Issues Carmel Sepuloni announced today.  “The Action Plan was designed by disabled people, their family and supporters, the disability sector and government agencies. It will ensure ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Joint Statement – Third Singapore-New Zealand Defence Ministers’ Meeting
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    7 days ago
  • Sexual Violence Legislation Bill has its first reading
    A Bill to improve the court system’s response to sexual violence has passed its first reading in Parliament today. Justice Minister Andrew Little says the Sexual Violence Legislation Bill will reduce the trauma sexual violence complainants experience in court, while maintaining defendants’ fundamental rights and making sure the trial process ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Streamlined business invoicing a step closer
    Streamlined payment practices are a step closer for Kiwi businesses with the formal launch of New Zealand’s e-Invoicing framework. Small Business Minister Stuart Nash says the government has now established the structure to enable automated and direct data exchange between the accounting systems of buyers and sellers. “The move to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • More frontline biosecurity officers protecting NZ
    Another 51 quarantine officers and four new biosecurity detector dog teams will help protect New Zealand from invasive pests and diseases this summer, says Biosecurity Minister Damien O’Connor. “The Government is delivering on its commitment to strengthen New Zealand’s biosecurity system and support our valuable primary sector “New Zealand’s flora, fauna ...
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