web analytics

Polity: Regional income stats

Written By: - Date published: 12:00 pm, December 30th, 2013 - 14 comments
Categories: Economy, employment, spin - Tags:

polity_square_for_lynnThere is always a fool who prefers to invent a story rather than trying to understand it. Rob Salmond points out that David Farrar is one of them. Of course as he also implies that it might be simply convenient for a National puppet to cry “good news” at every possible opportunity in view of their stagnant and incompetent jobless mismanagement of the economy.

The Herald says the regions have rising incomes, but caution against reading anything into it. DPF reads everything into it anyway.

First, here’s your New Zealand Herald on the regional income stats out of the census:

The South Island has had bigger median income gains than the North over the past seven years, Census figures show.

But an expert cautions that the figures may point to changing work and migration patterns, rather than real growth in income for the same people.

Dr [Eric] Crampton said people on low incomes because of unemployment in rural regions might move to the city to seek work.

“If those unemployed in the regions were more likely to move to the big city while those unemployed in the city were less likely to leave, that, too, could explain some of the difference in regional income growth.”

Yep, the regional migration statistics back that up, too. The regions with the supposedly highest median income growth also had some of the worst records in population growth, while the areas whose populations grew the fastest had relatively little change in median incomes.

AUT sociology professor Charles Crothers said the Census statistics undervalued the economic activity for self-employed people.

Statistics NZ said the Census question on income had a high non-response rate, with 9.7 per cent of respondents refusing to say how much they made.

So, the headline figures say one thing, but a parade of experts (including well-known leftie agitator Eric Crampton) say the result is iffy at best and could easily mask the opposite pattern in reality. Let’s seeDPF’s take on the whole thing, under the headline”Didn’t Labour claim the provinces were not sharing in the recovery?”:

So median income down in Auckland and massive growth in Buller, Asburton, Southland and Taranaki. This is what Labour calls the provinces missing out. I never knew they regarded Auckland as a province.

Great job completely ignoring the experts, there! Seriously, how dumb does the right think everybody is?

This is a pattern of behaviour that will bite National next year. They think they can trumpet any old figure as victory, no matter how flimsy the pretence, like the time they claimed victory over unemployment because things were so hopeless that tens of thousands moved to Australia.

New Zealanders are not so silly as they seem to believe.

14 comments on “Polity: Regional income stats”

  1. tricledrown 1

    National are throwing money to the high population areas to maximise its vote .
    Short term thinking again no surprise.
    Building up regions has a longer term payback as it takes time for this money ends up back in the cities economies.
    Buying votes is all National is focusing on.

  2. ghostwhowalksnz 2

    There is a bit of using colours to mask the decline.

    There should be a separate colour for the range of -1% to +1%. Essentially these are static numbers – plus its over 7 years !!

  3. James 3

    “Seriously, how dumb does the right think everybody is?”

    We’re in the second term of a National-lead government. I think they have a good idea.

  4. Tracey 4

    Well said james. Farrar et al know that if it sounds like a fact and gets printed it will be taken as a fact by the media and the skim readers.

  5. Jimmie 5

    Or the reason why many of the regions are doing well is that hateful dairy farmers are enjoying their highest ever payout and are spreading some of their hard earned earnings around….also the oil industry seems to be doing well as well.

    It could be that NZ’s economy is on the up in 2014 which really sucks if you’re hoping for Mr Cunilffe to be PM next year.

    I can see a peak in demand for psychologists next November after the left face another depressing 3 years in the political wilderness.

    John Key won in 2011 because of the earthquakes, and now he’s gona win in 2014 because the economy is booming………..Nuts!

    • Draco T Bastard 5.1

      I figure that NZ’s economy is going to crash next year. No particular reason, just a feeling but then it’s the same feeling I had in 2003 when I said that the global economy would crash between 2006 and 2008.

    • millsy 5.2

      Oh god, another delusional idiot.

      Those at the top will get all the gains from the economic boom, and those on the bottom will get nothing but a slap down when they ask for a share in the good times like a pay rise, or some more government services.

      The same thing happened in the 1990’s and its going to happen again.

  6. Ad 6

    Those South Island stats looked like a map of dairy conversions.
    Queenstown-Lakes won’t move because its choked with retired people on $18k, plus tourist industry workers on $20 under the table.
    Labour used to be able to win regional seats. The map shows why they won’t until they figure out their regional story.

    Remember Karol’s post yesterday complaining about funding for a regional cycling initiative? More regional votes lost to the Nats. Nats understand urban arrogance from the opposition.

    Also for all the free trade critics: all that Chinese and India-destined milk powder actually bought strong measurable economic growth to regions that need it.

    • you_fool 6.1

      I think you missed the point of the post – Yes the dairy/oil industry are doing good, but they are not providing jobs they are shedding jobs and the people who are now jobless move from the region that is “doing well” to a city, or other region, which drags down that region, even if that region was doing fine.

      i.e.

      Region A (rural) had 10 jobs, 100,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20 (one farmer and 9 hands)
      Region B (Urban) had 10 jobs 50,50,50,50,50,50,50,50,50,50 (assumed to be same for this purpose)

      Region A median is 20
      Region B median is 50

      Some time later farmer has fired 8 hands (for what ever reason) and they moved to the city because they felt there was a better chance of getting a job there. 5 of them found jobs (at starting rate of 50)but 3 couldn’t find jobs – his income has increased as well as his costs decreased (i.e. he is making more even without the lower costs). At the same time all the city workers had a pay increase of 10

      Region A now is 175,30 (median 102.5)

      Region B now is 60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,50,50,50,50,50,0,0,0 (median 60)

      Region A has had a percentage increase of 413% whilst Region B has had an increase of 20% but which is doing better? Region A only looks so well because everyone left, but then it also had an increase of real wages. Region B had an increase in real wages, but they is now a big imbalance incomes as the city has become flooded with unemployed rural workers. The farmer is happy, the one farm hand may or may not be happy (his drinking buddies have left, but he has more money.) The city folk and employed displaced farm hands may or may not be happy (have more money, but also have more people taking up resources / had to leave there home town) and the unemployed displaced farm hands are unhappy as they now have no job and can’go home as they know there is no job there.

      • Ad 6.1.1

        Dr Crampton gave no evidence for his assertions.

        You need to pop out to those high income growth areas and judge for yourself.

    • ghostwhowalksnz 6.2

      Ad, the income numbers are from the census, so are self declared.
      Nobody is going to check what you claim here as opposed to what the IRD is told.
      Under the table makes no difference essentially

  7. Chooky 7

    @ Ad ….”Labour used to be able to win regional seats”….agreed!… my parents were regional and from farms and voted Labour all their lives …until my Father disgusted with Rogernomics voted for Jim Anderton…In his time he was a railway man , a freezing worker, a fisherman , an insurance salesman and a farmer….his brother was a pilot ….his Maori and Pakeha friends naturally included those originally from the city and those rural workers and farmers…( some farmers were wealthy city lawyers become farmers) ….but many were humbly economically ‘poor’ workers ( although given their environment they didnt regard themselves as such)….and subsistence farmers

    Labour has to win the Regions if it is to become government in 2014 with the Greens!….many rural people are not wealthy but get by and will be looking for a reason to vote Labour ( many already vote Green because they love the environment)

    This is why the ‘politics of envy’ recently incited imo by Chris Trotter…. and the pitting of Labour Lefty trendo city working class and unemployed against the rural dwellers ( many Green) …..and those ( many women) trying to get by via Farmers Markets is not helpful ….He is attacking both the Green voter and the potential rural Labour voter…And with this sort of spin he is on target to swing it for National ( one wonders where his head is at)

    http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2013/12/30/means-of-escape-examining-the-heartland-myth/

    In France Farmers Markets are not regarded as elitist or the produce of the rich …..but a good way far all to eat locally and healthily from the artisan and farmer and the local terroir ….and for a modest price ( cutting out the big supermarkets and multi national business middle men) France probably has the most activist Left working class in the world ….and with this activism goes free education (including university education) and a public health system which leaves USA for dead….as well as leading the world in working conditions and hours…and retirement policies

    Labour MUST win the Heartland!….with inclusive politics and rural economic policies.

  8. dave 8

    its mmp we ony need to engineer a 3 percent swing and slippery is toast i can be liveing in the most blue of seats my party vote counts

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

No feed items found.

  • Ko te reo kua mū: Piri Sciascia
    Minister for Māori Development Nanaia Mahuta joins te ao Māori in their sorrow as they learn of the loss of one of the great orators and spokespersons of a generation – Piri Sciascia.  “The son of Pōrangahau was a staunch advocate for Māori development and served his people for over ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 hours ago
  • Minister opens new ecosanctuary at Cape Farewell
    A new ecosanctuary with a predator proof fence on Golden Bay’s Cape Farewell, which will restore a safe home for sea birds, rare native plants, giant snails, and geckos, was officially opened today by the Minister of Conservation Eugenie Sage. “There has been a fantastic community effort supported by the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    11 hours ago
  • Pacific partners work together to provide additional support to Australia
    The NZDF continues to support the Australian Defence Force (ADF) as it battles fires in Victoria and New South Wales, including by transporting Republic of Fiji Military engineers from Nadi to Australia, announced Defence Minister Ron Mark. On Saturday morning a NZDF Boeing 757 will depart New Zealand to uplift ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Kaikōura $10.88 million boost in tourism & business
    The Provincial Growth Fund (PGF) is investing $10.88 million to boost business and tourism opportunities in Kaikōura, Parliamentary Undersecretary for Regional Economic Development, Fletcher Tabuteau announced today. As part of the Kaikōura Marina Development Programme, the following two projects will receive PGF funding: A $9.88 million investment to begin the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Govt accounts in surplus, debt remains low
    The Government’s books are in good shape with the accounts in surplus and expenses close to forecast, Finance Minister Grant Robertson says. The Treasury today released the Crown accounts for the five months to November. The operating balance before gains and losses (OBEGAL) was above forecast by $0.7 billion resulting ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Auckland focus for first Police graduation of 2020
    The number of Police on the Auckland frontline is increasing with the graduation today of a special locally-trained wing of new constables. Police Minister Stuart Nash says the graduation of eighteen officers from Recruit Wing 333-5 means that more than 1900 new Police have been deployed since the Coalition Government ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Wairarapa gets $7.11m PGF water boost
    The Provincial Growth Fund is putting $7.11 million into creating a sustainable water supply for Wairarapa, Parliamentary Under-Secretary for Regional Economic Development Fletcher Tabuteau announced today. The following two projects will receive Provincial Growth Fund (PGF) funding: A $7 million investment in Wairarapa Water Limited for the pre-construction development of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Progress with new Police station in Mahia
    Community safety and crime prevention in the East Coast community of Mahia has moved forward with the opening of a new Police station to serve the growing coastal settlement. Police Minister Stuart Nash has officially opened the new station, which was relocated almost 20 kilometres along the coast from the nearby ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Plans to protect the future of whitebaiting announced
    With several native whitebait species in decline the Minister of Conservation Eugenie Sage has today released proposals to standardise and improve management of whitebait across New Zealand. “The need for action for a healthy whitebait fishery has never been greater,” Eugenie Sage said.  “Four of the six whitebait species are ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • New resource for schools to increase awareness and understanding of climate change
    A new Ministry of Education resource available for schools in 2020 will increase awareness and understanding of climate change, Education Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “The resource, Climate Change – prepare today, live well tomorrow, will help students understand the effects of climate change at a local, national and global ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Getting more out of our most productive firms
    Finance Minister Grant Robertson has approved the terms of reference for an Inquiry into the economic contribution of New Zealand's frontier firms. Frontier firms are the most productive firms in the domestic economy within their own industry. “These firms are important as they diffuse new technologies and business practices into ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • NZDF sends more support to Australia
    The New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) is sending an Environmental Health Team, a Primary Health Care Team and a Chaplain to Australia, boosting New Zealand support for the Australian Defence Force (ADF) as it battles bush fires in Victoria and New South Wales, Defence Minister Ron Mark announced today. The ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New Zealand joins partners in calling for full investigation into air crash in Iran
    Acting Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Rt Hon Winston Peters says that developments suggesting a surface-to-air missile is responsible for the downing of the Ukrainian International Airlines flight in Iran is disastrous news. “New Zealand offers its deepest sympathies to the families of the 176 victims. It is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Staying connected to Australian agriculture
    Agriculture Minister, Damien O’Connor, says the Ministry for Primary Industries is continuing to stay connected to federal authorities in Australia as devastating fires affect the country.  “The Ministry is using an existing trans-Tasman forum for discussions on the agricultural impact of the fires and the future recovery phase,” says Damien ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Investment in schools – a commitment to communities
    Thousands of school-age children, their teachers and wider communities are benefiting from the Government’s multi-million dollar investment upgrading and renewing schools, Education Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “We want New Zealand to be the best place to be a child and that means learning in warm, comfortable and modern classrooms,” ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New Zealand Defence Force sends support to Australia
    Minister of Defence Ron Mark today announced New Zealand is sending three Royal New Zealand Air Force NH90 helicopters and crew, and two NZ Army Combat Engineer Sections as well as a command element to support the Australian Defence Force efforts in tackling the Australian fires.  The New Zealand Defence Force ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Better access to books for blind and low vision citizens on World Braille Day
    "Today is World Braille Day and I am delighted to announce that an international treaty giving blind and low vision New Zealanders access to books and literary works comes into force today,” Minister for Disability Issues Carmel Sepuloni announced today. “Today the Marrakesh Treaty and the associated amendments to the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New Zealand to send further firefighter support to Australia
    The New Zealand Government is sending a further 22 firefighters to help fight the Australian fires. “The devastation caused by these fires is taking a substantial toll on our Australian neighbours and we will continue to do what we can to assist as they deal with this extremely dynamic, dangerous ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Reducing the cost of education
    Twenty-two more schools have opted into the Government’s policy of providing $150 per child to schools who don’t ask parents for donations– bringing the total number of schools in the policy to 1,585. The Ministry of Education has accepted late opt ins past the November 14 deadline from schools that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Road deaths lower in 2019, but still more work to do
    “As we enter the new decade, my thoughts are with the families, friends and communities of the 353 people who lost their lives in road crashes last year. While the number of deaths is lower than in 2018 (377), this is still a staggering loss of life,” Duty Minister Iain ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • PM congratulates New Year 2020 Honours recipients
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has congratulated the diverse group of New Zealanders recognised for their contributions to the country and their communities in the New Year 2020 Honours List.   The list of 180 honours recipients includes three Dames and three Knights Companion of the New Zealand Order of Merit, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Justice Minister congratulates first Māori Supreme Court judge on New Year’s Honour
    Justice Minister Andrew Little has congratulated The Honourable Justice Joe Williams for receiving a knighthood for services to the state. Sir Joe Williams has been appointed as a Knight Companion of the New Zealand Order of Merit in the New Year 2020 Honours List. “Sir Joe Williams has made an ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • New Year honours for top sportspeople
    Twenty-one of New Zealand’s top sportspeople, coaches and leaders in the sporting community have been recognised in the New Year 2020 Honours List. The Silver Ferns coach Noeline Taurua has been made a Dame Companion and the former All Blacks Steve Hansen has been made a Knight Companion of the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Leading architect of Zero Carbon Bill honoured
    It’s great to see ordinary New Zealanders doing extraordinary things, Minister for Climate Change James Shaw today said in response to the news that Lisa McLaren is included in the New Year 2020 Honours List for her exceptional work leading the campaign for the Zero Carbon Bill. Lisa McLaren was ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Social entrepreneurs and innovation leads Pacific contribution
    Minister for Pacific Peoples Aupito William Sio says the New Year 2020 Honours List highlights the valuable contribution Pacific social entrepreneurs and innovators make to New Zealand, the Pacific region and the world. “The standout common factor that underlines their contribution to Aotearoa is the value they place in their ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Service to birds and bush recognised in New Year Honours
    Decades of dedication to Aotearoa’s unique birds, landscapes, and native eels is recognised in the New Year 2020 Honours List said Minister of Conservation Eugenie Sage. “I’m delighted that the decades of dedication to conservation, and fantastic leadership in giving nature a helping hand is being acknowledged,” said Eugenie Sage. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Closer Economic Partnership with Singapore comes into force on 1 January
    New Zealanders will start to see the benefits of the upgraded Closer Economic Partnership (CEP) with Singapore from 1 January 2020, when the agreement comes into force. Minister for Trade and Export Growth David Parker said the agreement would open more opportunities for New Zealand companies looking to do business with ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago