Rob Salmond highlights some of the drug-laden smoke waffling out of National and greedily getting snorted up by some of the more credulous media.
Claire Trevett’s sources have told her porkies about Labour’s internal polling numbers. She reports:
List MPs were doing the numbers as internal polling showed them diving into the low to mid-20s and Cunliffe with stratospherically high negative ratings.
One poll was reported to have Labour only five or six points ahead of the Greens.
Not very many people see any party’s internal polling. I am one of those who do within Labour, which is why I know Claire’s sources are wrong. Here’s where our polling says we stand:
So it is game on, with Winston in poll position. (Geddit – ha!)
The interesting thing for me is the emerging pattern of misinformation about Labour’s poll numbers. Whenever National is under pressure, phantom reports of dire internal Labour polls emerge. Judith Collins – that well known paragon of honesty – claimed a couple of months ago that Labour was on 23%. She lied. There was a claim that a public poll would soon emerge showing Labour on 25%. It never did. And now this.
Journalists need to be aware that one of National’s strategies for the election is to talk up the Greens’ role in a centre-left government. Evidently, that now involves making up Labour’s internal numbers, in order to seed the false belief that voters’ choice will be between “National” and “Green/Labour.”
Here’s a new rule of thumb: The more chatter we hear about Labour’s internals, the more worried National is.
lprent: I have quite a lot of direct and indirect access to people who deal with canvassing and polling at various levels because of the various roles I do or have done in the past. These range from the geeks to the politicians. Once you look at polling time periods and the known biases, the Roy Morgan poll has been tracking closely to everything that I have heard of in the backchannels for a long time. Like Rod, I’m quite puzzled by some of the claims that the journalists appear to get repeatedly and that are seldom even backed up by subsequent events. I find it hard to see how they can be that gulled that often unless they wanted to be on the hook.