web analytics

Polls and people

Written By: - Date published: 7:25 am, June 21st, 2011 - 27 comments
Categories: budget 2011, election 2011, polls - Tags: ,

The Roy Morgan Polls are all over the place, at the moment (see May 23rd, June 9th). Just as Trev warned us, the latest Roy Morgan has the Left once more at the bottom of the roller coaster:

Support for the government is at 59.5% (up 6%):
National Party 53% (up 4%)
Maori Party 3% (up 0.4%)
ACT NZ 3% (up 1.5%)
United Future 0.5% (unchanged)

Support for opposition parties is at 40.5% (down 6%)
Labour Party 30% (down 6%)
Greens 7% (up 0.5%)
New Zealand First 2.5% (unchanged)
Progressive Party 0% (unchanged)
Others 1% (down 0.5%)

Allowing for margins of error the movement over the last 3 polls is probably nowhere near as extreme as the quoted numbers suggest. But none the less I think it is now safe to say that the Nats have survived their useless 2011 Budget without significant damage. This doesn’t surprise me — most people still aren’t really focused on politics after all — but it does mean that the pressure is all on to the election campaign itself for the Left. At this rate we won’t have any momentum going in. Grim!

On a lighter note, for a poll of a different kind, the Reader’s Digest annual poll of most trusted people (and professions) is out. The full list is on Scoop, but here’s an extract from the 100 most trusted people:

1. Sir Ray Avery, scientist, inventor, New Zealander of the Year 2010
2. Sir Peter Gluckman, Chief Science Advisor to the Prime Minister
3. Sir Paul Callaghan, physicist, New Zealander of the Year 2011
4. The Hon. Justice Helen Winkelmann Chief High Court Judge
5. Roger Hall, film, TV and theatre actor, playwright

90. The Rt. Hon. John Key, 38th and current Prime Minister
91. Paul Holmes, broadcaster
92. Paul Henry, journalist, radio and TV presenter
93. Jim Anderton, Progressive Party leader
94. The Hon. Bill English, Deputy Prime Minister
95. The Hon. Pita Sharples, Minister of Maori Affairs
96. The Hon. Phil Goff, Labour Party leader
97. The Hon. Tariana Turia, Maori Party co-leader
98. The Rt. Hon. Winston Peters, New Zealand First leader
99. The Hon. Rodney Hide, Minister of Local Government
100. The Hon. Hone Harawira, activist, Member for Te Tai Tokerau

As usual the bottom of the list is full of politicians – it’s impossible to score well in such a poll if a big chunk of the population are going to automatically rate you as 0. But note the top 3, all scientists (as was much commented on in the media). Coincidence, down to the individuals, or is there a growing acceptance of the important role of science in NZ? Either way I should make that my new tagline eh – “Trust me, I’m a scientist”…

27 comments on “Polls and people ”

  1. Luva 1

    What do you think, was this a dodgy poll? Or do all the comments stand?

    http://thestandard.org.nz/nats-plummet-lab-soars-post-budget

    • policywonk 1.1

      That link seems to be a bit broken Luva – just took me back to the home page.

      Is this where you wanted to go? rogue poll gives Left false hope

      • lprent 1.1.1

        Doesn’t look to me like Eddie was all that excited. He was just analyzing the implications if that poll proved to be accurate.

        • policywonk 1.1.1.1

          I’ve been careful to avoid attributing any level of excitement to the author – however some of the posters who responded to the author’s comments did appear a little worked up by the results…

          Interesting results nevertheless – hard to pick which polls are rogue and which are reflective of the natural variability demonstrated by small sample populations

          • Draco T Bastard 1.1.1.1.1

            The way they keep shifting about with such wild swings I’m beginning to think all polls are rogue.

  2. gingercrush 2

    To be honest I had no clue why some here got very excited about the Roy Morgan poll last time and how that was poll was going to be the start of a major change in direction for this country. It was never going to be that because ultimately Labour hasn’t proved itself. It was just bizarre that one or two Standard authors would get so excited about it.

    • lprent 2.1

      Actually I can’t recall any author getting particularly excited about it. we have been around the polls too long. I can recall some commentators doing so, just as some did on the previous Morgan poll. I sure as hell wasn’t, it takes several trending polls before I get interested. I suspect that you’re just trying for a good story and rewriting history.

      As r0b says even the Morgan poll is up and down like a yoyo right now. This one was taken just after the budget and a while after all of the excitement with Act. I usually allow about a month for political news to filter into the polls.

      The best that you can say is that Act doesn’t appear to be gaining traction and the Labour / National divide is bouncing around. The ‘others’ doesn’t look too good for Mana

    • Lanthanide 2.2

      Personally I think my own reaction could be classed as “cautiously optimistic”.

  3. Bored 3

    Jeez, I said I would stop calling for Goffs head, so I wont call for it. I will leave it to Labour to reflect on the fact he is listed as less trusted than such malign and dubious photo opping sound biters as Key, Holmes, Henry…..

  4. Tangled up in blue 4

    Ouch. That is all.

  5. lprent 5

    The most interesting thing about this poll is that the Government Confidence Rating hasn’t bounced by much post budget (which they usually do). Certainly not enough to reverse the overall downward trend that we have seen in the last 18 months or so. I think that it will continue the slow trend of confident dropping, and the unconfident slowly rising.

    To me that long term trend is the most interesting one on this poll series at present. It doesn’t bode well for the government going into an election. It tends to indicate that they are not managing to sell their message. Which of course leaves room for the opposition to work within.

  6. Lanthanide 6

    One particular note on the most trusted list is Peter Jackson. 6th place last year, now he’s 74th…

  7. Ed 7

    With a sample size of 534, getting meaningful results on a list of 100 people is possibly not very reliable. Similarly I suspect that the Morgan Poll may not be as reliable as ‘margin of error’ estimates suggest – it presumably presupposes that the small sample is taken randomly from the voting population, that people will answer questions honestly, and that not available, decline to answer and don’t know responses to the poll are trivial.

  8. Bo Duke 8

    Old trevor was cautious about the last poll and now we know why. Looks like it was rogue unfortunately. Come on labour, time to step up and stop falling on your faces!

  9. nadis 9

    The trusted list is interesting but somewhat bizarre. Does anyone have a link to the form of the survey?

    I’m a bit of a news junkie, and follow lots of issues but I have to wonder how some of these names would even come close to resonating with the public. I’m not quibbling with the results per se but I wonder how many of the general public have ever heard of Sir Ray Avery or Helen Winkelman………..

  10. Glad the scientists are at the top, they deserve it, they are the ones making the difference, if your a scientist I will listen to you, if a tv star come activist, not so much.

    • Colonial Viper 10.1

      if your a scientist I will listen to you

      That must be why you take orders from Key and English.

  11. Politicians will always rate poorly because most people wouldn’t vote for most of them but may happily vote for one of them. Collectively, then, they will rate poorly. It’s almost unfair to even include them.

    • Craig Glen Eden 11.1

      Yeah Steve I think you are right “politicians you cant trust any of them except for our local guy girl they are just so lovely they spoke to me at the school gala just the other day bla bla.”

  12. Uroskin 12

    Interesting that the most trusted politician in that list is Russel Norman.

  13. Reality Bytes 13

    I wonder how much of an effect disillusioned kiwi emigrants have on these polls? Just think of all the Cantabs that have left, let alone the rest. I doubt Ray Morgan would bother to interview any kiwis that have left for other parts of the world, surely that would be a lot more hassle and expensive than randomly ringing a few NZ numbers to see who’s keen, so I doubt it.
    If people are that pissed with the government that they leave, they could also be that pissed off enough that they send their vote in from abroad against the government that pissed them off.
    I also wonder about the undecideds. Since even if we assume these polls are virtually perfect indications of how the election will pan out, the Undecideds and those not polled could be the one’s who really decide the ultimate outcome.

    So according to stats.govt website there’s 600k kiwis living abroad.
    And according to the Ray Morgan Poll 9% didn’t answer, so if we extrapolate that 9% to our population (4407k according to govt stats population clock) gives us 396.6k did not answerer’s.

    So nearly a million kiwis not represented in this poll, or 22.6% of the population. Which means that if we look at Nationals commanding lead of 53%, it would be a mistake to assume this means certain victory – even if this poll is a spot on perfect prediction of how the populace would vote, as it only represents that proportion who were surveyed and chose to disclose their voting intentions. Since only 77.4% of the population has been represented, the poll only tells us that 41.02% would vote for National. Of course that would translate to 23.22% for Labour incidentally. 22.6% haven’t shown there cards yet, and voter apathy occurs at home and abroad. There could be more apathy at home than abroad so the numbers would skew even more and that 22.6% figure could be an even greater proportion… NACT don’t have this in the bag for certain even if these polls are perfectly accurate predictions.

    • Reality Bytes 13.1

      I got the numbers wrong a bit there since I calculated the 22.6% figure using 4407k as the pop. when I should have added the 600k for those abroad. So redoing the figures it works out at 19.97% Not represented in the poll (abroad + not answerer’s). And 42.41% Nat voters, 24.01% Lab voters. Still not certain NACT victory, 42% is not 50%+.

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Face to face meeting delivers significant progress on NZ-UK FTA
    New Zealand and the UK have committed to accelerating their free trade agreement negotiations with the aim of reaching an agreement in principle this August, Trade Minister Damien O’Connor announced. “We’ve held constructive and productive discussions towards the conclusion of a high-quality and comprehensive FTA that will support sustainable and inclusive trade, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 hours ago
  • Government taking action to protect albatross
    New population figures for the critically endangered Antipodean albatross showing a 5 percent decline per year highlights the importance of reducing all threats to these very special birds, Acting Minister of Conservation Dr Ayesha Verrall says. The latest population modelling, carried out by Dragonfly Data Science, shows the Antipodean albatross ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    20 hours ago
  • Adoption laws under review
    New Zealand’s 66-year-old adoption laws are being reviewed, with public engagement beginning today.  Justice Minister Kris Faafoi said the Government is seeking views on options for change to our adoption laws and system. “The Adoption Act has remained largely the same since 1955. We need our adoption laws to reflect ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Wider roll-out of cameras on boats to support sustainability and protect marine life
    Up to 300 inshore commercial fishing vessels will be fitted with on-board cameras by 2024 as part of the Government’s commitment to protect the natural marine environment for future generations.  Minister for Oceans and Fisheries David Parker today announced the funding is now in place for the wider roll out ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Plan for vaccine rollout for general population announced
    New Zealanders over 60 will be offered a vaccination from July 28 and those over 55 from August 11, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced today. The rollout of the vaccine to the general population will be done in age groups as is the approach commonly used overseas, with those over ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • New Zealand introduces Belarus travel bans
    New Zealand has imposed travel bans on selected individuals associated with the Lukashenko regime, following ongoing concerns about election fraud and human rights abuses after the 2020 Belarus elections, Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta has announced. The ban covers more than fifty individuals, including the President and key members of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • NZ economy grows driven by households, construction and business investment
    The Government’s efforts to secure the recovery have been reflected in the robust rebound of GDP figures released today which show the economy remains resilient despite the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, Grant Robertson said. GDP increased 1.6 percent in the first three months of 2021. The Treasury had ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Milestone 250th tower continues to improve rural connectivity
    The Government has welcomed the completion of the 250th 4G mobile tower, as part of its push for better rural connectivity. Waikato’s Wiltsdown, which is roughly 80 kilometres south of Hamilton, is home to the new tower, deployed by the Rural Connectivity Group to enable improved service to 70 homes ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Quarantine Free Travel pause with Victoria to lift on Tuesday
    Following a further public health assessment of the COVID-19 outbreak in greater Melbourne, New Zealand’s Quarantine Free Travel pause with Victoria has been extended to 11.59pm on Tuesday 22 June, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins says. It has been determined that the risk to public health in New Zealand continues ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Prime Minister mourns passing of Dr Sir Ian Hassall
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is mourning the passing of Dr Sir Ian Hassall, New Zealand’s first Children’s Commissioner and lifelong champion for children and children’s health. As a paediatrician Sir Ian contributed to a major world-first cot death study that has been directly credited with reducing cot deaths in New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • APEC structural reform meeting a success
    APEC ministers have agreed working together will be crucial to ensure economies recover from the impact of COVID-19. Minister of Commerce and Consumer Affairs David Clark, chaired the virtual APEC Structural Reform Ministerial Meeting today which revolved around the overarching theme of promoting balanced, inclusive, sustainable, innovative and secure growth ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Digital hub to boost investment in forestry
    A new website has been launched at Fieldays to support the forestry sector find the information it needs to plant, grow and manage trees, and to encourage investment across the wider industry. Forestry Minister Stuart Nash says the new Canopy website is tailored for farmers, iwi and other forestry interests, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government continues support for rangatahi to get into employment, education and training
    Over 230 rangatahi are set to benefit from further funding through four new He Poutama Rangatahi programmes, Minister for Social Development and Employment Carmel Sepuloni announced today. “We’re continuing to secure our economic recovery from COVID by investing in opportunities for rangatahi to get into meaningful employment, education or training ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • NCEA subjects up for consultation
    The education sector, students, their parents, whānau and communities are invited to share their thoughts on a list of proposed NCEA subjects released today, Education Minister Chris Hipkins says. This is a significant part of the Government’s NCEA Change Programme that commenced in 2020 and will be largely implemented by ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Major investment in plantain forage programme aims to improve freshwater quality
    The Government is backing a major programme investigating plantain’s potential to help farmers protect waterways and improve freshwater quality, Acting Agriculture Minister Meka Whaitiri announced at Fieldays today. The Sustainable Food and Fibre Futures (SFFF) fund is contributing $8.98 million to the $22.23 million seven-year programme, which aims to deliver ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • America’s Cup decision
    The Minister responsible for the America’s Cup has confirmed the joint Crown-Auckland Council offer to host the next regatta has been declined by the Board of Team New Zealand. “The exclusive period of negotiation between the Crown, Auckland Council, and Team New Zealand ends tomorrow, 17 June,” said Stuart Nash. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Food and fibres sector making significant strides towards New Zealand’s economic recovery
    The Government is backing the food and fibres sector to lead New Zealand's economic recovery from COVID-19 with targeted investments as part of its Fit for a Better World roadmap, Forestry Minister Stuart Nash said. “To drive New Zealand’s recovery, we launched the Fit for a Better World – Accelerating ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Speech to He Whenua Taurikura – New Zealand’s annual hui on countering terrorism and violent...
    Check against delivery Can I begin by acknowledging the 51 shuhada, their families and the Muslim community. It is because of the atrocious violent act that was done to them which has led ultimately to this, the start of a dialogue and a conversation about how we as a nation ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Cost of Government Southern Response proactive package released
    The Government has announced the proactive package for some Southern Response policyholders could cost $313 million if all those eligible apply. In December, the Minister Responsible for the Earthquake Commission, David Clark announced a proactive package for SRES claimants who settled their claims before October 2014. It trailed the judgment ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • New support to reduce emissions from public building and construction projects
    Government agencies are getting new support to reduce carbon emissions generated by construction of new buildings, with the release of practical guidance to shape decisions on public projects. The Ministers for Building and Construction and for Economic Development say a new Procurement Guide will help government agencies, private sector suppliers, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • He Whenua Taurikura: New Zealand’s first Hui on Countering Terrorism and Violent Extremism
    The Prime Minister has opened New Zealand’s first hui on Countering Terrorism and Violent Extremism, which is being held in Christchurch over the next two days. The hui delivers on one of the recommendations from the report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into the terrorist attack on Christchurch masjidain ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Speech to inaugural Countering Terrorism Hui
    E aku nui, e aku rahi, Te whaka-kanohi mai o rātou mā, Ru-ruku-tia i runga i te ngākau whakapono, Ru-ruku-tia i runga i te ngākau aroha, Waitaha, Ngāti Mamoe, Ngai Tahu, nāu rā te reo pohiri. Tena tātou katoa. Ki te kotahi te kakaho ka whati, ki te kapuia, e ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Campaign shines a light on elder abuse
    A new campaign is shining a spotlight on elder abuse, and urging people to protect older New Zealanders. Launched on World Elder Abuse Awareness Day, the Office for Seniors’ campaign encourages friends, whānau and neighbours to look for the signs of abuse, which is often hidden in plain sight. “Research suggests ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Farewelling sports administrator and philanthropist Sir Eion Edgar
    Sport and Recreation Minister Grant Robertson today expressed his sorrow at the passing of Sir Eion Edgar – a leading sports administrator and celebrated philanthropist who has made a significant impact both within and beyond the sport sector. “Sir Eion’s energy, drive and generosity has been truly immense. He leaves ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government to apologise for Dawn Raids
    The Government will make a formal apology for the wrongs committed during the Dawn Raids of the 1970’s. Between 1974 and 1976, a series of rigorous immigration enforcement policies were carried out that resulted in targeted raids on the homes of Pacific families. The raids to find, convict and deport overstayers ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Humanitarian support for Bangladesh and Myanmar
    Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta today announced that New Zealand is providing NZ $8.25 million in humanitarian assistance to support refugees and their host populations in Bangladesh and to support humanitarian need of internally displaced and conflict affected people in Myanmar.  “Nearly four years after 900,000 Rohingya crossed the border ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Poroporoaki: Dame Georgina Kamiria Kirby
    E Te Kōkō Tangiwai, Te Tuhi Mareikura, Te Kākākura Pokai kua riro i a matou. He toka tū moana ākinga ā tai, ākinga ā hau, ākinga ā ngaru tūātea.  Haere atu rā ki te mūrau a te tini, ki te wenerau a te mano.  E tae koe ki ngā rire ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Feedback sought on future of housing and urban development
    New Zealanders are encouraged to have their say on a long-term vision for housing and urban development to guide future work, the Housing Minister Megan Woods has announced. Consultation starts today on a Government Policy Statement on Housing and Urban Development (GPS-HUD), which will support the long-term direction of Aotearoa ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Clean car package to drive down emissions
    New rebates for electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles start July 1 with up to $8,625 for new vehicles and $3,450 for used. Electric vehicle chargers now available every 75km along most state highways to give Kiwis confidence. Low Emission Transport Fund will have nearly four times the funding by 2023 ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Progress towards simpler process for changing sex on birth certificates
    The Government is taking the next step to support transgender, non-binary and intersex New Zealanders, by progressing the Births, Deaths, Marriages and Relationships Registration Bill, Minister of Internal Affairs, Jan Tinetti announced today. “This Government understands that self-identification is a significant issue for transgender, non-binary and intersex New Zealanders, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Crown speeds up engagement with takutai moana applicants
    The Crown is taking a new approach to takutai moana applications to give all applicants an opportunity to engage with the Crown and better support the Māori-Crown relationship, Treaty of Waitangi Negotiations Minister Andrew Little says. Following discussions with applicant groups, the Crown has reviewed the existing takutai moana application ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Alcohol and Other Drug Treatment (AODT) Court opens
    The Minister of Justice, Kris Faafoi, and the Minister for Courts, Aupito William Sio, have welcomed the opening of a new Alcohol and Other Drug Treatment (AODT) Court in Hamilton. The AODT Court (Te Whare Whakapiki Wairua) addresses situations where substance abuse and offending are intertwined. “New Zealanders have told ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • EU and UK FTAs top of list for first ministerial trip since COVID-19
    Trade and Export Growth Minister Damien O’Connor today announced details of his planned visit to the United Kingdom and European Union next week, where he will hold trade and agriculture discussions to further New Zealand’s economic recovery from COVID-19. The visit will add political weight to ongoing negotiations with both the EU ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Arihia Bennett to chair Royal Commission Ministerial Advisory Group
    Te Rūnanga o Ngāi Tahu chief executive Arihia Bennett MNZM has been appointed chair of the newly appointed Ministerial Advisory Group on the Government’s Response to the Royal Commission of Inquiry into the terrorist attack on Christchurch mosques. “Twenty-eight people from diverse backgrounds across Aotearoa have been selected for the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Speech to the New Zealand Medical Association General Practitioners' Conference, Rotorua
    Ki ngā pou maha o te whare hauora o Aotearoa, kei te mihiTo the pillars of our health system I acknowledge/thank you Ki te ope hapai hauora o roto o tēnei rūma, kei te mihi To our health force here in the room today, I acknowledge/thank you He taura tangata, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Karangahape Road upgrades are streets ahead
    The upgrades to Karangahape Road makes the iconic street more pedestrian and cycle-friendly, attractive and environmentally sustainable, Transport Minister Michael Wood and Auckland Mayor Phil Goff said at the formal celebration of the completion of the Karangahape Road Enhancements project. The project included widening footpaths supporting a better outdoor dining ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Speech to APEC business event
    E ngā tumu herenga waka, ākina ā ngaru, ākina ā tai ka whakatere ngā waka ki te whakapapa pounamu, otirā, ki Tamaki o ngā waka Tena koutou katoa… To the great leaders assembled, who guided your waka through turbulent times, challenging waters and you continue to navigate your respective waka ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Pause on Quarantine Free Travel with Victoria extended
    Following an assessment of the COVID-19 outbreak in greater Melbourne, New Zealand’s Quarantine Free Travel pause with Victoria will continue for a further seven days, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins says. There are now 93 cases associated with the outbreak in greater Melbourne, spread over four clusters. Contact tracing efforts ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Supplier Diversity Aotearoa Summit: Navigate 2021
    *** Check with delivery *** A mihi to all who have contributed to making today a success – starting with you! As you have explored and navigated government procurement today you will hopefully have reflected on the journey of our people so far – and how you can make a ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Pukemiro School to close
    Pukemiro Primary School near Huntly will close following years of declining roll numbers, Education Minister Chris Hipkins announced today. “I’ve consulted with the School Commissioner, and this decision acknowledges the fact that the few remaining students from last term are now settled at other nearby schools. “I want to thank ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago