web analytics

Polls and people

Written By: - Date published: 7:25 am, June 21st, 2011 - 27 comments
Categories: budget 2011, election 2011, polls - Tags: ,

The Roy Morgan Polls are all over the place, at the moment (see May 23rd, June 9th). Just as Trev warned us, the latest Roy Morgan has the Left once more at the bottom of the roller coaster:

Support for the government is at 59.5% (up 6%):
National Party 53% (up 4%)
Maori Party 3% (up 0.4%)
ACT NZ 3% (up 1.5%)
United Future 0.5% (unchanged)

Support for opposition parties is at 40.5% (down 6%)
Labour Party 30% (down 6%)
Greens 7% (up 0.5%)
New Zealand First 2.5% (unchanged)
Progressive Party 0% (unchanged)
Others 1% (down 0.5%)

Allowing for margins of error the movement over the last 3 polls is probably nowhere near as extreme as the quoted numbers suggest. But none the less I think it is now safe to say that the Nats have survived their useless 2011 Budget without significant damage. This doesn’t surprise me — most people still aren’t really focused on politics after all — but it does mean that the pressure is all on to the election campaign itself for the Left. At this rate we won’t have any momentum going in. Grim!

On a lighter note, for a poll of a different kind, the Reader’s Digest annual poll of most trusted people (and professions) is out. The full list is on Scoop, but here’s an extract from the 100 most trusted people:

1. Sir Ray Avery, scientist, inventor, New Zealander of the Year 2010
2. Sir Peter Gluckman, Chief Science Advisor to the Prime Minister
3. Sir Paul Callaghan, physicist, New Zealander of the Year 2011
4. The Hon. Justice Helen Winkelmann Chief High Court Judge
5. Roger Hall, film, TV and theatre actor, playwright

90. The Rt. Hon. John Key, 38th and current Prime Minister
91. Paul Holmes, broadcaster
92. Paul Henry, journalist, radio and TV presenter
93. Jim Anderton, Progressive Party leader
94. The Hon. Bill English, Deputy Prime Minister
95. The Hon. Pita Sharples, Minister of Maori Affairs
96. The Hon. Phil Goff, Labour Party leader
97. The Hon. Tariana Turia, Maori Party co-leader
98. The Rt. Hon. Winston Peters, New Zealand First leader
99. The Hon. Rodney Hide, Minister of Local Government
100. The Hon. Hone Harawira, activist, Member for Te Tai Tokerau

As usual the bottom of the list is full of politicians – it’s impossible to score well in such a poll if a big chunk of the population are going to automatically rate you as 0. But note the top 3, all scientists (as was much commented on in the media). Coincidence, down to the individuals, or is there a growing acceptance of the important role of science in NZ? Either way I should make that my new tagline eh – “Trust me, I’m a scientist”…

27 comments on “Polls and people ”

  1. Luva 1

    What do you think, was this a dodgy poll? Or do all the comments stand?

    http://thestandard.org.nz/nats-plummet-lab-soars-post-budget

    • policywonk 1.1

      That link seems to be a bit broken Luva – just took me back to the home page.

      Is this where you wanted to go? rogue poll gives Left false hope

      • lprent 1.1.1

        Doesn’t look to me like Eddie was all that excited. He was just analyzing the implications if that poll proved to be accurate.

        • policywonk 1.1.1.1

          I’ve been careful to avoid attributing any level of excitement to the author – however some of the posters who responded to the author’s comments did appear a little worked up by the results…

          Interesting results nevertheless – hard to pick which polls are rogue and which are reflective of the natural variability demonstrated by small sample populations

          • Draco T Bastard 1.1.1.1.1

            The way they keep shifting about with such wild swings I’m beginning to think all polls are rogue.

  2. gingercrush 2

    To be honest I had no clue why some here got very excited about the Roy Morgan poll last time and how that was poll was going to be the start of a major change in direction for this country. It was never going to be that because ultimately Labour hasn’t proved itself. It was just bizarre that one or two Standard authors would get so excited about it.

    • lprent 2.1

      Actually I can’t recall any author getting particularly excited about it. we have been around the polls too long. I can recall some commentators doing so, just as some did on the previous Morgan poll. I sure as hell wasn’t, it takes several trending polls before I get interested. I suspect that you’re just trying for a good story and rewriting history.

      As r0b says even the Morgan poll is up and down like a yoyo right now. This one was taken just after the budget and a while after all of the excitement with Act. I usually allow about a month for political news to filter into the polls.

      The best that you can say is that Act doesn’t appear to be gaining traction and the Labour / National divide is bouncing around. The ‘others’ doesn’t look too good for Mana

    • Lanthanide 2.2

      Personally I think my own reaction could be classed as “cautiously optimistic”.

  3. Bored 3

    Jeez, I said I would stop calling for Goffs head, so I wont call for it. I will leave it to Labour to reflect on the fact he is listed as less trusted than such malign and dubious photo opping sound biters as Key, Holmes, Henry…..

  4. Tangled up in blue 4

    Ouch. That is all.

  5. lprent 5

    The most interesting thing about this poll is that the Government Confidence Rating hasn’t bounced by much post budget (which they usually do). Certainly not enough to reverse the overall downward trend that we have seen in the last 18 months or so. I think that it will continue the slow trend of confident dropping, and the unconfident slowly rising.

    To me that long term trend is the most interesting one on this poll series at present. It doesn’t bode well for the government going into an election. It tends to indicate that they are not managing to sell their message. Which of course leaves room for the opposition to work within.

  6. Lanthanide 6

    One particular note on the most trusted list is Peter Jackson. 6th place last year, now he’s 74th…

  7. Ed 7

    With a sample size of 534, getting meaningful results on a list of 100 people is possibly not very reliable. Similarly I suspect that the Morgan Poll may not be as reliable as ‘margin of error’ estimates suggest – it presumably presupposes that the small sample is taken randomly from the voting population, that people will answer questions honestly, and that not available, decline to answer and don’t know responses to the poll are trivial.

  8. Bo Duke 8

    Old trevor was cautious about the last poll and now we know why. Looks like it was rogue unfortunately. Come on labour, time to step up and stop falling on your faces!

  9. nadis 9

    The trusted list is interesting but somewhat bizarre. Does anyone have a link to the form of the survey?

    I’m a bit of a news junkie, and follow lots of issues but I have to wonder how some of these names would even come close to resonating with the public. I’m not quibbling with the results per se but I wonder how many of the general public have ever heard of Sir Ray Avery or Helen Winkelman………..

  10. Glad the scientists are at the top, they deserve it, they are the ones making the difference, if your a scientist I will listen to you, if a tv star come activist, not so much.

    • Colonial Viper 10.1

      if your a scientist I will listen to you

      That must be why you take orders from Key and English.

  11. Politicians will always rate poorly because most people wouldn’t vote for most of them but may happily vote for one of them. Collectively, then, they will rate poorly. It’s almost unfair to even include them.

    • Craig Glen Eden 11.1

      Yeah Steve I think you are right “politicians you cant trust any of them except for our local guy girl they are just so lovely they spoke to me at the school gala just the other day bla bla.”

  12. Uroskin 12

    Interesting that the most trusted politician in that list is Russel Norman.

  13. Reality Bytes 13

    I wonder how much of an effect disillusioned kiwi emigrants have on these polls? Just think of all the Cantabs that have left, let alone the rest. I doubt Ray Morgan would bother to interview any kiwis that have left for other parts of the world, surely that would be a lot more hassle and expensive than randomly ringing a few NZ numbers to see who’s keen, so I doubt it.
    If people are that pissed with the government that they leave, they could also be that pissed off enough that they send their vote in from abroad against the government that pissed them off.
    I also wonder about the undecideds. Since even if we assume these polls are virtually perfect indications of how the election will pan out, the Undecideds and those not polled could be the one’s who really decide the ultimate outcome.

    So according to stats.govt website there’s 600k kiwis living abroad.
    And according to the Ray Morgan Poll 9% didn’t answer, so if we extrapolate that 9% to our population (4407k according to govt stats population clock) gives us 396.6k did not answerer’s.

    So nearly a million kiwis not represented in this poll, or 22.6% of the population. Which means that if we look at Nationals commanding lead of 53%, it would be a mistake to assume this means certain victory – even if this poll is a spot on perfect prediction of how the populace would vote, as it only represents that proportion who were surveyed and chose to disclose their voting intentions. Since only 77.4% of the population has been represented, the poll only tells us that 41.02% would vote for National. Of course that would translate to 23.22% for Labour incidentally. 22.6% haven’t shown there cards yet, and voter apathy occurs at home and abroad. There could be more apathy at home than abroad so the numbers would skew even more and that 22.6% figure could be an even greater proportion… NACT don’t have this in the bag for certain even if these polls are perfectly accurate predictions.

    • Reality Bytes 13.1

      I got the numbers wrong a bit there since I calculated the 22.6% figure using 4407k as the pop. when I should have added the 600k for those abroad. So redoing the figures it works out at 19.97% Not represented in the poll (abroad + not answerer’s). And 42.41% Nat voters, 24.01% Lab voters. Still not certain NACT victory, 42% is not 50%+.

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Progress in establishment of Aged Care Commissioner
    Recruitment for an Aged Care Commissioner will start next month, to ensure greater oversight of New Zealand’s aged care sector. “This sector is responsible for supporting a large and often vulnerable population. While most people are able to access quality care, there have been cases where that care has fallen ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    8 hours ago
  • New record number of homes consented
    In the year ended June 2021, the actual number of new dwellings consented was 44,299, up 18 percent from the June 2020 year. In June 2021, the seasonally adjusted number of new dwellings consented rose 3.8 percent. In June 2021, 4,310 new dwellings were consented, an increase of 3.8 per ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Communities backed to tackle wilding pines
    Twelve community projects across New Zealand will receive a share of $2 million to carry out wilding pine control, Biosecurity Minister Damien O’Connor announced as part of Biosecurity Week. “Wilding pines are a serious problem that threaten many of the unique landscapes that New Zealanders value. Community groups and trusts ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Health Minister Andrew Little responding to the New Zealand Nurses Organisation's rejection of ...
    I was advised last night that the result of the ballot of Tōpūtanga Tapuhi Kaitiaki o Aotearoa New Zealand Nurses Organisation members have rejected the latest proposal to settle their collective agreement. Let me be clear: the proposal was one they put to the Government. The Nurses Organisation rejected their ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Conversion Practices Prohibition Legislation introduced to Parliament
    Legislation has been introduced to Parliament to protect against practices intended to change or suppress someone’s sexual orientation, gender identity, or gender expression. Introducing the Conversion Practices Prohibition Legislation Bill, Minister of Justice, Kris Faafoi, said the measures proposed were aimed at ending conversion practices which don’t work, are widely ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • New school site for booming West Auckland
    The Government will build on a new school site in West Auckland to cope with rapid population growth in the area, Education Minister Chris Hipkins says. The Ministry is working with existing local schools to determine how the 1.5-hectare site at 279 Hobsonville Point Road will be used to support ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Trans-Tasman travel window to close at midnight tomorrow
    A further 500 MIQ rooms released for managed returnees from NSW Further Government actions announced today are balanced to provide more certainty for Kiwis wanting to return from Australia, while continuing to protect New Zealand from COVID-19, acting Minister for COVID-19 Response Ayesha Verrall says. The actions were foreshadowed last ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Govt investing millions in Hawke's Bay and Tairāwhiti schools
    Napier Boys’ and Girls’ High Schools are among those set to benefit from a $16.5 million investment in the Hawke's Bay and Tairāwhiti region, Economic and Regional Development Minister Stuart Nash announced today. The Government has set aside money in Budget 2021 to accelerate five projects in Napier, Hastings, Havelock North ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Game changing Jobs for Nature investment for Northland
    Conservation Minister Kiri Allan has announced Jobs for Nature funding for a portfolio of projects that will create ‘game changing’ gains for nature and communities across Northland/Te Tai Tokerau as part of the Government’s acceleration of the economic recovery from COVID. “This portfolio of 12 projects will see over $20 ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Third COVID-19 vaccine receives provisional approval
    New Zealand’s regulatory authority Medsafe has granted provisional approval of the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine for individuals 18 years of age and older, Acting Minister for COVID-19 Response Dr Ayesha Verrall announced today. New Zealand secured 7.6 million doses (enough for 3.8 million people) of the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine through an ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Bowel-cancer screening programme is saving lives
    More than 1000 New Zealanders have had bowel cancer – New Zealand’s second-most-common cause of death from cancer - detected under the Government’s National Bowel Screening Programme, Health Minister Andrew Little said today. More than 1200 New Zealanders died from bowel cancer in 2017. The screening programme aims to save ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Govt welcomes draft report on the retail grocery sector
    The Commerce Commission’s draft report into the retail grocery sector is being welcomed by Government as a major milestone. “I asked the Commerce Commission to look at whether this sector is as competitive as it could be and today it has released its draft report for consultation,” Commerce and Consumer ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Christchurch’s Youth Hub ‘set to go’ thanks to further Government funding
    Construction of New Zealand’s first, purpose-built centre for youth well-being is ready to get underway thanks to an extra $2.5 million of COVID-19 response funding, Housing Minister and Associate Minister of Finance, Megan Woods announced today.  “The Christchurch Youth Hub is about bringing together all the things young people need ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Next step to protect Milford Sound Piopiotahi
    Expert group lays out plan to better protect iconic UNESCO World Heritage site Milford Sound Piopiotahi and its surrounds Funding confirmed for dedicated unit and Establishment Board to assess the recommendations and provide oversight of the process from here Milford Opportunities Project a test case for transformational change in tourism ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Funding for projects to reduce waste from construction and demolition
    The Government has announced funding for projects in Auckland and the lower North Island to help reduce construction and demolition waste. “Construction is the main source of waste sent to landfill, and much of this could be reduced, reused and recovered,” Environment Minister David Parker said. “The Government is funding ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Speech at the launch of the National Hepatitis C Action Plan
    Tēnā koutou katoa. Thank you Anglesea Pharmacy and Te Manawa Taki for hosting this event. As a doctor, I saw first hand the impact of hepatitis C. I met Moana in 2019; she came to the infectious diseases outpatient clinic at Wellington Hospital having tested positive for hepatitis C. Like ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Plan to eliminate hepatitis C as a major health threat by 2030
    A plan to eliminate hepatitis C in New Zealand, reducing liver cancer and the need for liver transplants, has been released today by Associate Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall. “Around 45,000 New Zealanders have hepatitis C, but only around half know they have it,” said Ayesha Verrall. “Symptoms often ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • School upgrades and new classrooms for West Coast, Tasman and Canterbury
    A funding injection from Budget 2021 to complete four shovel ready projects and new classrooms at six schools and kura will provide a real boost to local communities, Minister Dr Megan Woods announced today. “This Government has committed to providing quality fit for purpose learning environments and 100,000 new student ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Warmer Kiwi Homes smashes annual target
    The Government's highly successful insulation and heating programme, Warmer Kiwi Homes, is celebrating a key milestone with the completion of more than 38,000 insulation and efficient heater installs in the year to the end of June, smashing its target of 25,000 installs for the year. “The Warmer Kiwi Homes scheme ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Exemption granted for Wallabies to enter NZ
    Bledisloe Cup rugby will be played in New Zealand after the Australian rugby team received an economic exemption to enter New Zealand. Travel between Australia and New Zealand was suspended on Friday for at least eight weeks following the worsening of the COVID outbreak across the Tasman. New Zealanders have ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Minister of Foreign Affairs makes three diplomatic appointments
    Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta today announced three New Zealand Head of Mission appointments. They are: Mike Walsh as Ambassador to Iran Michael Upton as Ambassador to Ethiopia and the African Union Kevin Burnett as Ambassador to Indonesia Iran “Aotearoa New Zealand has a long-standing and constructive relationship with Iran, despite a ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Enhanced Task Force Green Approved for West Coast and Marlborough
    The Government has activated Enhanced Task Force Green (ETFG) in response to the West Coast and Marlborough floods, Social Development and Employment Minister Carmel Sepuloni announced today. “To assist with the clean-up, up to $500,000 will be made available to support the recovery in Buller and Marlborough which has experienced ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Govt support for upgrade of Eden Park players facilities
    Minister for Sport and Recreation Hon Grant Robertson has announced funding to upgrade the players facilities at Eden Park ahead of upcoming Women’s World Cup events. Eden Park is a confirmed venue for the Rugby World Cup 2021, the ICC Women’s Cricket World Cup 2022, and a proposed venue for matches of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • More jobs and quicker public transport motoring towards West Auckland
    Work to improve public transport for West Aucklanders and support the region’s economic recovery by creating hundreds of jobs has officially kicked off, Transport Minister Michael Wood announced today. Michael Wood and Auckland Mayor Phil Goff this morning marked the start of construction on the Northwestern Bus Improvements project. It ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Government backs critical health research
    Research into some of New Zealanders’ biggest health concerns including cancer, diabetes, and heart disease is getting crucial support in the latest round of health research funding, Health Minister Andrew Little announced today. The funding, awarded through the Health Research Council of New Zealand, covers 31 General Project grants ($36.64 ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • New Bay of Islands hospital facilities to bring services closer to home
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Health Minister Andrew Little have joined a ceremony to bless the site and workers for Phase Two of the redevelopment of the Bay of Islands Hospital in Kawakawa today. The new building will house outpatients and primary care facilities, as well as expanded renal care ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Raukokore re-imagined with ‘smart’ relocatable rent to own housing
    Iwi, Crown Partnership Relocatable, fully insulated housing, connected to a new solar plant Provides a pathway to home ownership New housing in the remote eastern Bay of Plenty community of Raukokore shows how iwi and Crown agencies can work together effectively to provide warm, dry, energy efficient homes in a ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Cabinet accepts Turkish authorities’ request for the managed return of three NZ citizens
    Cabinet has agreed to the managed return of a New Zealand citizen and her two young children from Turkey, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced today. The three have been in immigration detention in Turkey since crossing the border from Syria earlier this year. Turkey has requested that New Zealand repatriate ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Govt delivers more classrooms so children can focus on learning
    Extra Government investment in classrooms and school building projects will enable students and teachers to focus on education rather than overcrowding as school rolls grow across the country, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Associate Education Minister Kelvin Davis say. The pair visited Ruakākā School in Whangārei today to announce $100 ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • New station a platform for AirportLink to take off
    Every Aucklander with access to the rail network will now have a quick and convenient trip to the airport, Transport Minister Michael Wood and Auckland Mayor Phil Goff said during the official opening of the new Puhinui Interchange today. The new interchange links the rail platform with a new bus ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • 10 days sick leave for employees delivered
    Legislation doubling employees’ minimum sick leave entitlement to 10 days comes into effect today, bringing benefits to both businesses and employees, Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Michael Wood announced today. “Our Government is delivering on a key manifesto commitment to help Kiwis and workplaces stay healthy,” Michael Wood said. “COVID-19 ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Prime Minister congratulates Fiame Naomi Mata’afa on Election Win
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern tonight congratulated Prime Minister-elect Fiame Naomi Mata’afa on her victory in the Samoa’s general election. “New Zealand has a special relationship with Samoa, anchored in the Treaty of Friendship. We look forward to working with Samoa’s new government in the spirit of partnership that characterises this ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Quarantine Free Travel with Australia suspended
    Quarantine Free Travel from all Australian states and territories to New Zealand is being suspended as the Covid situation there worsens, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins announced today. From 11.59pm today Australians will no longer be able to enter New Zealand quarantine-free. This will be ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Growing conservation efforts in Gisborne
    A big injection of Jobs for Nature funding will create much-needed jobs and financial security for families in TeTairāwhiti, and has exciting prospects for conservation in the region, Conservation Minister Kiri Allan says. “The projects target local communities most affected by the economic consequences of COVID 19 and are designed ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Flood recovery given further assistance
    The Government is contributing a further $1 million to help the flood battered Buller community, Acting Emergency Management Minister Kris Faafoi announced today. “Buller is a small community which has found itself suddenly facing significant and ongoing welfare costs. While many emergency welfare costs are reimbursed by Government, this money ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Funding for five projects to reduce food waste
    The Government is funding five projects to help address the growing problem of food waste, Environment Minister David Parker announced today. “New Zealand households throw away nearly 300,000 tonnes of food every year, half of which could still be eaten. By supporting these initiatives, we’re taking steps to reduce this ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Temporary Accommodation Service activated for West Coast flooding event
    The Temporary Accommodation Service (TAS) has been activated today - meaning residents on the West Coast of the South Island and in the Marlborough region hit by flooding over the weekend can now access help finding temporary accommodation, announced Associate Minister of Housing (Public Housing) Poto Williams in Westport today. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Pause to Quarantine Free Travel from South Australia to New Zealand
    Quarantine Free Travel from South Australia to New Zealand will be paused from 11.59am (NZT) tonight, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins has announced. However, people currently in the state who ordinarily live in New Zealand will be able to return on “managed return” flights starting with the next available flight, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New Zealand condemns malicious cyber activity by Chinese state-sponsored actors
    New Zealand has established links between Chinese state-sponsored actors known as Advanced Persistent Threat 40 (APT40) and malicious cyber activity in New Zealand. “The GCSB has worked through a robust technical attribution process in relation to this activity. New Zealand is today joining other countries in strongly condemning this malicious ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Remarks to Diplomatic Corps
    It is a pleasure to be with you all this evening. Some of you may have been surprised when you received an invitation from the Minister of Disarmament and Arms Control, and I would forgive you if you were. New Zealand is unique in having established a Ministerial portfolio ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago