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Polls get worse for National

Written By: - Date published: 12:00 pm, October 1st, 2012 - 39 comments
Categories: greens, labour, national, polls - Tags:

The latest Roy Morgan poll has National at its lowest level of support since before the 2008 election. The confidence in government number is at its lowest level under National – down to levels that Labour experienced in its final months.

In the last two months, Labour+Green has averaged 0.5% above National. It doesn’t sound like much, but a year ago the gap was averaging 14.5% in National’s favour.

National desperately needs to regain control of the political agenda – I doubt the Greens and Labour will let them.

39 comments on “Polls get worse for National”

  1. Anne 1

    Ahhh, that explains it. Put this post up on ‘Open Mike’.

    1 October 2012 at 11:49 am

    Just heard one of the best Radio NZ political jousts between Mike Williams and Matthew Hooton.

    Guess what the new Nat.strategy is re-the undermining of the Labour Party. Hooton has given it away:

    Drive a deep wedge between the Shearer and Cunliffe leadership camps by spreading false memes!!

    He claimed today that Cunliffe has spent all year undermining David Shearer. It’s bull-shit, crap and anything else you may wish to call it. My observation suggests the truth is the opposite.

    Matthew sweetheart… you insult the most highly intelligent member of parliament we have in this country. Is he going to be so foolish as to try on a trick like that? No, he is not.

    Message to fellow Labour supporters (past and present): DON’T fall into the trap!

    Edit: Hooton called for Labour to sack Cunliffe.
    It’s panic stations at Nat. Party HQ.

  2. McFlock 2

    cautiously optimistic 🙂

    • Dr Terry 2.1

      Right, McFlock – let’s be “cautiously optimistic”. Given the Tory record of practically a disaster per week since the election, it is amazing that they remain preferred at over 40%, still worse that 47.5 of New Zealand voters believe that we are “heading in the right direction” (even as disaster threatens). It is hard to imagine how much worse National could become to gain a significant drop in popularity! Their “success” is largely through keeping the large and comfortable middle class happy. Will they ever cross this line?
      And of course National feeds every nasty prejudice (rather than feeding hungry children).

      All I suggest is that we do not become overly carried away by this survey – a long way to go yet!
      Especially disappointing is the fall in favour for the Greens. To my mind, this is utterly incomprehensible. Kiwis appear to be suspicious of intelligence, and careless concerning welfare of children.

      • fatty 2.1.1

        “Kiwis appear to be suspicious of intelligence, and careless concerning welfare of children.”

        True, the left has an unusual dislike of academics, even more so in the NZ left.

        • tracey

          i thought the rights number one criticism of clark and cullen was they are academics

      • McFlock 2.1.2

        It’s not the survey I’m cautiously optimistic on, but the trend.
        I’d actually be worried if in the space of six months the polls went from 50:25 Nat:lab to 25:50 Nat:Lab. Ground dramatically gained can easily become ground dramatically lost.  The fact is that hard times polarise the electorate, they don’t all see the red light and move socialist. Some of the electorate move fascist – and the only ones to the right of national are patently insane, even to a moron. So yeah, between that and their money backers National are always going to get at the very least 30%. Plus the government bump, where people on the phone can’t remember any other party except the one in power. 
        What I’m looking for is the 50:50 split nat:left with six months to go before an election. Then the media horse race can do the rest, argue that the govt ain’t winning so it’s losing, and cheer on the electoral collapse. 

        • mickysavage

          Yep National’s support is heading towards bedrock.  They did worse in 2002 but their support flooded to like minded parties.

          This time there is nothing left, apart from the suspicion that Peters will return home and bring NZ First back behind National next time.

          The left is still about 7% behind where they really need to be.

          But the trend is in the right direction. 

  3. Bunji 3

    First time Roy Morgan has had:
    “If a National Election were held today this New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll says a combined opposition of Labour/ Greens & New Zealand First would be favoured to form a new Government.”

    (Rather than too close to call which it has beenf or a while)

  4. Te Reo Putake 4

    I did a brief analysis of the seat allocation the other day and thinking about it again, a Labour/Green minority government seems the likely outcome. I’m assuming that Winston would offer confidence and supply in exchange for a ministerial role outside cabinet (or Speaker perhaps?).
    The Maori party have done well to keep their polling to the point where they would retain 3 seats even if they only win one electorate. But I think they would have to seriously consider backing a Labour led Government rather than languish in opposition. However, if the coat-tailing provisions change before the next election, they’d only have Tariana in parliament and they’d be irrelevant anyway. Hone, if he wins TTT, would also be alone under that change, but under the current rules, he’d bring a list MP with him.
    One interesting thing is that NZF on 5% presents National with a conundrum. If they could convince Peters to back them, they’d be able to command a slim majority. However, if NZF don’t quite make the 5% threshold, then National can almost govern with just a couple of extra seats from MP, ACT and/or UF. So what do the Nat’s do? Try and stop NZF getting back into parliament or suck up to them?
    One thing is certain, Shearer is quietly stearing Labour to victory. That in itself is a remarkable achievment in less than a year.

    • boxy 4.1

      Shearer is steering Winston to victory. Not labour.

      Labour is stuck in the early 30s and has been since Clark left. Shearer has done nothing to change that.

      People shouldn’t kid themselves Winston would support a green labour government when he can hold National to ransom instead.

      It’s much sweeter revenge.

    • gobsmacked 4.2

      One thing is certain, Shearer is quietly stearing Labour to victory. That in itself is a remarkable achievment in less than a year.

      You seem to be a reasonably intelligent person, TRP, so I don’t believe for one moment that you believe this.

      If Labour had chosen any other leader, would they be polling lower? Or if Goff was still the caretaker? It has nothing whatsoever to do with the hapless “leader.”

      It would defy the laws of gravity for the opposition not to benefit from an extraordinary series of failures and f**k-ups by this government. What more could they have done wrong? Eaten fried kittens on live TV?

      The tragedy would be if Shearer stays, until it is too late. Then he will deliver the election to National. How could he possibly survive the campaign? As soon as Labour look like winning, then the pressure really starts. We’ve seen nothing yet.

      • Te Reo Putake 4.2.1

        It’s really hard to know if another leader would have done better or worse, GS, but I do genuinely think that Shearer has done well to get Labour its best poll results in four years. Ok, Key’s failure’s have a lot to do with that, but the LP caucus seem to be as disciplined as we’ve seen in years, Mallard excepted, and that is down to Shearer. This is no ‘drover’s dog’ situation and Labour absolutely do need a convincing leader, but there is no need to dump Shearer while he is doing the job reasonably well.
        Like it or not, Shearer will be leading the party in the next election. There will not be a leadership spill because he is doing OK and, frankly, there is no likely challenger. Cunliffe knows he hasn’t got the numbers and no one else has the credibility to put up a decent case for change.
        And as I’ve said earlier, it’s the policies that matter, not the leader. Lange was amazing, but look at the damage his leadership did by promoting piss poor economic policies.

        • lprent

          Ummm you took the words out of my mouth. The caucus still isn’t performing anywhere near up to standard, but with the exception of Shearer himself (the house-painter stupidity) the rest of caucus haven’t screwed up in the dumbarse way that I have become almost accustomed to for the last 6 months. It makes for a nice change and must count as a record for recent times. Eventually Shearer will get enough experience to recognize a likely foot-in-the-mouth-gaffe before he makes it. But I suspect that Labour will keep losing activists until he does. *sigh*

          I’m afraid that I have never seen any reason to change the leadership mid or late-term. It is just one of those those things beloved by the media for ratings, the opposing parties, and the staffers playing dominance games. I’ve never noticed speculation on it doing much except for damage for the Labour (or any other) party. And it never solves the inherent problems inside the parties – in fact it is usually just done as a way to avoid dealing with the real issues by lazy politicians. The early 90’s comes to mind….

          • Te Reo Putake

            “I’ve never noticed speculation on it doing much except for damage for the Labour (or any other) party.”
            Time for a post on National’s leadership options, then? Whoever constitutes their brains’ trust these days must be doing the numbers by now. Perata? Joyce? Bridges? If Key isn’t rolled soon, they’ll have to stick with him till 2014 or do a desperate last minute change a la Palmer/Moore just to minimise the damage.

  5. Kotahi Tāne Huna 5

    As Key’s rating goes down he drags the Party down with him. Or is it the incompetence of the front bench that drags Key down?

    I think Key has a way to fall yet, the GCSB fiasco had only just got going when this polling was done – the Christchurch schools farce was more current. That’s on-going, and Key just gave the GCSB story more legs by slithering off to lick Hollywood boot soles.

    And a new generation of young Kiwi voters learns what the National Party is 🙂

    • Draco T Bastard 5.1

      As Key’s rating goes down he drags the Party down with him. Or is it the incompetence of the front bench that drags Key down?

      Both and, IMO, the corruption is really starting to show through as well.

      And a new generation of young Kiwi voters learns what the National Party is

      All to the good 😈

    • peterlepaysan 5.2

      Was “boot soles” what you really meant?

      • Kotahi Tāne Huna 5.2.1

        Yep. It’s a metaphor. I don’t mean he will literally lick the soles of their boots, obviously: most of them will be wearing shoes.

        PS: for further clarity, it’s the fact that he represents NZ while he’s job hunting that’s really offensive.

  6. tracey 6

    I think the middle wedge of voters are seeing through the smile and aw shucks and realise these guys tinker round the ideological fringes and in effect the country has gone nowhere. People are noticing the disappearance of aspirational from the pms vocab….

  7. The polls are great news, the trends are panic button stuff for the nacts,in the light
    of their attack on the nz way of life and businesses re: the high dollar,the blatant
    lies,the twisting of the truth with a capital C,shutting nz’ers out from what the shonkey
    govt is up to re; ombudsman,perhaps that nact spade will be used to dig a hole
    all the way to china and their personal aspirations for total dominace will go with them.:)

  8. Enough is Enough 8

    These polls would be even better if it wasn’t for the leader of the opposition.

    I advocated for Shearer. To me he was someone who I thought would appeal to the broad spectrum of Left wing supporters. I thought he was non controvercial and would be someone that everyone would get in behind. How wrong I was.

    He is an absolute hopeless and fucking useless liabilty. He struggles to articulate simple concepts. Does anyone who watched the Nation on Saturday have any fucking idea what Shearer would do with the Reserve Bank Act. It was cringe worthy watching it.

    What is his position on anything. I don’t think he knows so he can’t tell us.

    I think he is worth a solid 10% to the right. How else can you reconcile the right still being in the game when they are the most incompetent government in New Zealand’s history. Since the election they haven’t put a foot right. Yet 45% of voters would put them in again. Key is a joke. Yet he remains popular. English is a thief, yet he still writes the budget, Parata can’t read, yet she is closing schools down, we can through the whole caucus saying that.

    What gives?

    Easy…David Shearer.

    • gobsmacked 8.1

      Lead story on One News: Key’s trip to Hollywood.

      Opposition clips – Helen Kelly, Russel Norman, David Shearer.

      Kelly and Norman: Clear and concise. No stumbles over words, no “er”. Flawless.

      Shearer: Four stumbles, in two sentences.

      Now, multiply this short report x 100, and you have an election campaign. Non-stop media, dozens of interviews every day, opponents spinning – and you have to spin back.

      Forget Lange and Rowling or anybody else for a false comparison. There is no comparison. Nobody has been this bad – ever. Shearer. Cannot. Communicate.

      People on here can either face up to that simple fact, or not. But it is an absolute certainty that Labour MPs will have to face it … because they want to win, and National want Shearer.

  9. chris73 9

    Don’t get your hopes up, its obviously just a rogue poll 😉

  10. Craig Glen Eden 10

    Mathew Hooten wants Shearer to stay Labour Leader and wants David Cunliffe out, work it out peps!

    • McFlock 10.1

      Mathew Hooten says he wants Shearer to stay Labour Leader and says he wants David Cunliffe out, work it out peps!

      Just to clarify the situation for all concerned 🙂

    • felix 10.2

      I caution all concerned to pay Hooten and his ilk no mind. Taking his advice would be stupid, but guessing his game and taking the opposite advice would be just as stupid.

      Seriously, he and others may well want Shearer to remain leader for their own reasons. It doesn’t matter. More than anything else they want to sow confusion, doubt and chaos.

      Don’t fall into this trap. Labour’s and the left’s leadership issues need to be sorted out according to what Labour and the left genuinely think is the best solution, not by second-guessing the motives of a bunch of fuckwits who want us to flounder and fail.

      So don’t just take or reject their advice, you have to go further than that and ignore them completely.

      • McFlock 10.2.1

        Indeed. The “but he knows we know, and we know he knows we know, so it’s fair to say that he knows we know he know we know…” is a bit like running policy strictly on focus groups. The minutae and machinations are all very enthralling, but after a while you realise that a 60/40 split on a qualitative sample leaves so many conflicting priorities that you’ve just gotta ditch it and go with your gut anyway.

        • Sunny

          According to my ‘gut’ Shearer couldn’t win a raffle!

          • Kotahi Tāne Huna

            Yes, but people don’t tick “Shearer” they tick “Labour”.

            • Craig Glen Eden

              People in my experience vote the personality they like best, most voters have very little understanding of policy that parties stand for. The example I would give is a number of people I know who voted National because of the nice Mr Key they however didnt want asset sales. They voted Key and therefore National because they didnt like Goff.

              If Shearer stays Leader of Labour, Labour will lose many voters because Shearer cannot and does not get his message across, just like Goff before him. Labour voters stayed at home because they had no man or woman to vote for.

              Sunny is right Shearer wont inspire, Shearer is already viewed as a total goober.

      • Kotahi Tāne Huna 10.2.2

        @felix. Agree 100%. If I stand behind Cunliffe and he stands behind Shearer I stand behind Shearer. Or vote Green. Nothing any wingnut can say will influence that.

  11. captain hook 11

    the only poll that counts is the one on election day and thee is no doubt whatsoever that The New Zealand Labour Party will sweep the present gang of graspers out of office and begin to rebuild the country for the benefit of all and not just the act nitwits and the typical gang of tory wannabees.

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