Polls good for Left

Written By: - Date published: 1:30 pm, November 3rd, 2011 - 80 comments
Categories: disaster, election 2011, im/migration, overseas investment, polls - Tags:

There’s a TVNZ poll out tonight and a Herald poll tomorrow morning but, ahead of them, here’s some other new polls results that point to trouble for the Nats. 27% of young people want to leave New Zealand. 82% of people oppose farm sales to foreign buyers. 24% of people will change their vote over the Rena.

Btw, I think that only in the world of perennial National Party press sec applicant Tracy Watkins does a poll result showing one in four people will change their votes over the Rena mean National has ‘dodged Rena fallout’. Her own poll says that this election turns on 6% of voters continuing to support National or changing their mind. With four times that number of votes in flux and the momentum all one-way traffic for Labour in recent weeks, I would be worried if I was National.

80 comments on “Polls good for Left”

  1. Jimmy 1

    Maybe those 27% of young people should vote and try and get the country into a better state rather than jumping ship like rats.

  2. Roy 2

    Wanting to leave the country is not the same as being able to leave the country, Jimmy.

  3. queenstfarmer 3

    24% of people will change their vote over the Rena.

    Now I don’t know what the actual poll question was, but the stuff article says:

    But when asked if the Rena salvage and cleanup would influence who they gave their vote to at the election, 55.3 per cent of those questioned said no, while just 24 per cent said yes.

    Assuming the stuff article is correct, it is very misleading (and wishful, perhaps?) to portray “influence” as “will change”.

    • bbfloyd 3.1

      engaging in bullshit semantics again queeny….? come on mate…. you sound like you’re on the verge of an epiphany… don’t be shy….. it’s very liberating using actuality as a guide to thought….

      • queenstfarmer 3.1.1

        Semantics – the meaning of words. Well I guess some people do not like to engage in such things…

        • felix 3.1.1.1

          Actually semantics is a lot broader than just “the meaning of words”. It covers the meaning conveyed by a whole array of elements including words but also including sentence construction, accent or stress, phrasing, meanings implied by context etc etc.

          Ironic, huh?

          • queenstfarmer 3.1.1.1.1

            Actually semantics is a lot broader than just “the meaning of words”.

            Did I say it wasn’t?

            • The Voice of Reason 3.1.1.1.1.1

              Yes, indeed you did. Your statement was closed and definitive. Felix, is, as usual, on the money with his more open and educated description.

              • McFlock

                Pure semantics 🙂

              • queenstfarmer

                Your statement was closed and definitive

                How so? I made no such claim. I was merely stating (briefly) one meaning of the word. Felix, and now you, for some bizzare reason appear to be claiming that I was attempting to give a definitive statement of all accepted meanings of the word (quite why I would want to do that is a mystery). And on the basis, it seems, that I did not say I wouldn’t.

                Very odd, but there you go.

                • The Voice of Reason

                  Own your words, mate. I’m not here to teach you linguistics, grammar or the English language, though I tried above because I’m in favour of upskilling the unskilled and you clearly needed the help.

                  • queenstfarmer

                    I am still waiting to hear on what basis you think my “statement” (an attempt to give a detailed list of every meaning of the word “semantics”?) was “closed and definitive”.

                    If you can’t explain, I’ll understand why.

                    • The Voice of Reason

                      I’ve already explained it.
                       
                      And, if I can digress for a moment, I don’t usually point out peoples’ linguistic or grammatical errors here, because what they say is more important. I try and focus on the ideas. The rare times I do comment are when someone like you gets pompous and then gets it wrong.
                       
                      From your comment above, I’m picking you either don’t get why your definition is, er, definitive (which isn’t a problem; not everyone took English classes as seriously as I did at school) or, more likely, that you just can’t bring yourself to acknowledge that Felix was right.

                    • queenstfarmer

                      No – you said: Your statement was closed and definitive.

                      I said: on what basis you think my “statement” … was “closed and definitive”.

                      You have not answered that – but you now say I’ve already explained it.

                      Where?

                    • The Voice of Reason

                      In comment 3.1.1.1.1.1.
                       
                      As I said, it really doesn’t matter if you don’t understand. I certainly don’t think any less of you if that’s the case and ignorance is better than the other alternative that you don’t have the grace to admit defeat.
                       
                      I’ve gotta go, but feel free to comment further and I’ll put you right again in the morning.

                    • queenstfarmer

                      Well lets see, your comment 3.1.1.1.1.1 is:

                      Yes, indeed you did. Your statement was closed and definitive. Felix, is, as usual, on the money with his more open and educated description.

                      So, the basis on which you claim to have “explained” that my statement was “closed and definitive” is… your own statement asserting (without any explanation…) that Yes, indeed you did. Your statement was closed and definitive.

                      Well that is just brilliant. It is truly “The Voice of Reason”! Or, to bring this full circle, is your handle just ironic?

                    • The Voice of Reason

                      Yes, it is ironic, queenie. I stole it from Ayn Rand, but that’s ok because I’ve fully enclosed it and it’s mine to keep now. Hope you didn’t lose too much sleep trying to work out where you went wrong; its cruel of me to tease you in that way, I know.

                    • queenstfarmer

                      Please never consider it cruel to give me opportunities to correct you. Just try to be more careful next time.

            • Bunswalla 3.1.1.1.1.2

              Come on guys, all this arguing over the meaning of semantics is just semantics, isn’t it?

        • Puddleglum 3.1.1.2

          qsf, c’mon, admit that what you meant to say – and what you did say – is that semantics is the ‘meaning of words’.

          Look at your initial comment. You bolded two words  (‘would influence‘) and then you focused on the fact that “influence” is not the same as “will change”.

          I’m not sure what you meant readers to take from that – other than the obvious point that the words  “would influence” don’t mean (i.e., don’t have the semantic loading of) “will change”.

          That is, you reduced semantics to “the meaning of words” (taken in isolation from their surrounding ‘language game’).

          Why do you fear confessing to this? 

    • framu 3.2

      further on the “would influence who they gave their vote to”

      how can anyone in the media say this means anything other than that?

      its not an endorsement of any party – it just indicates a level of change from one undefined position to a different undefined position.

      and from that we get statements like this

      “Voters have given the Government a pass mark for its handling of the Rena crisis – and most say it won’t affect how they vote at the upcoming election.”

      bah!

      (unless theres something im missing here)

    • Hanswurst 4.1

      Meh. So one poll registers – to all intents and purposes – no change. That’s not even worth the word “Bugger”, let alone three gratuitous exclamation marks.

    • insider 4.2

      So if 29% is good how does Eddie define bad? S/he needs to polish that crystal ball.

      On October 24 Eddie said: “I’m told that the Nats own numbers show them down 5% since the Rena/double downgrade/S&P lies/throat-slitting clusterfuck hit them, which puts their support in the mid-40s.” No sign on the horizon yet

  4. queenstfarmer 5

    27% of young people want to leave New Zealand.

    Eddie, on what basis do you consider this to be a poll that is “good for the Left”, when that poll was taken in October-November 2008 – i.e. after a full 9 years of Labour being in Government?

  5. gorj 6

    I moved to Sydney straight after high school in ’09. better weather, better looking women, better music scene… not much the government can do about that 🙂

  6. Anyonewhobelievesapoliticianwhentheysaytheyarehonestisafool 7

    You missed this one!

    Labour’s support has slipped in the first week of the election campaign to below 30 per cent, in the latest DigiPoll survey released this afternoon.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10763639

    Surely another win to Goff!

  7. Raymond A Francis 8

    Eddie; never forget Miss Clark’s dictum
    “Under promise, over deliver”
    Hope this is not another massive fail, mate

  8. randal 9

    looks like the nzherald is lying too.
    they can sue me if they like.
    but I bet they dont.
    they trying to do a wendell wilkie.
    but it wont wash.

    • Alwyn 9.1

      I assume randal, when you refer to Wendell Wilkie, you are referring to a famous poll that had Roosevelt losing in a landslide in an election in which he then took 46 out of 48 states.
      If so can you please get the election and the candidate right.
      It was a Literary Digest poll in 1936 when the Republican candidate was Landon. Wilkie was the Republican candidate in 1940.
      If this isn’t what you are talking about could you please tell me what the reference to Wilkie is about?

      lprent. Rob tells me that I am in moderation because I was banned by you back on 4 August, and that you are the only one who can lift it. I had, I confess, forgotten it.
      If I plead that I am sorry is there any chance of having it lifted? As an incurable nutter about politics the thought of going for the rest of the campaign in silence may be to much for me.

      [This time I’ll email Lynn. — r0b]

      [lprent: I just reread the comment. I read it as you saying that Zet was Mallard – which was just weird. I think I could have misinterpreted who you were directing the comment at or about (your comment was rather confused), so I will give you the benefit of the doubt. ]

  9. Gosman 10

    “…and the momentum all one-way traffic for Labour in recent weeks”

    Does that include in the debate last night?

    I love Eddies unfailing confidence in everything Labour. I believe a ‘Comical’ title might be in order at some stage.

    [lprent: Personally attacking my authors is bloody dangerous game. It is also one that I have already warned you about once today. Attack what they say, but don’t attack them directly or now even indirectly. I can live without you a lot easier than having authors decide to give up writing. My toleration level that you have previously earned is now down to zero. Next time you get kicked off for a few months. ]

    • Kaplan 10.1

      I think it does. Key lying about not having Labours costings again exposed himself as a conman. Sure he’s a good conman, but still a conman.
      I think the quote of the night was Goff calling out key’s whinging about potentially paying a few extra cents for a muffin if the minimum wage is raised. 🙂
      The low point would have to be Key using the nine billion portion of the deficit that he attributes to Canterbury as an attack line. Not smart.

  10. The latest poll has Labour below 30%

    The again it also has the greens above 10%

    There is no way Labour will get less than 30% of the vote, and there is
    no chance of the greens getting more than 10%.

  11. Matthew Hooton 12

    This is one of the most desperate posts I have seen on any political blog. The polls coming out in the next 24 hours are very bad for Labour, and they were taken before Phil Goff’s debacle last night in the Press debate. You need to come up with better spin lines than this. Happy to help.

    • gobsmacked 12.1

      Hooton needs to come up with better spin lines than this.

      “Very bad” redefined as “going up”. Classic.

      Presumably Matthew was talking about the One News poll. Looks like he got a little confused there, and was thinking of his old mate Don Brash, who is now in deep trouble. Will John Key save him, or stab him in the back yet again?

      Of course Labour should be doing better. But the Greens are gaining across the range of polls, and National have eaten their allies. Plenty to play for.

      • infused 12.1.1

        Err try again. Two polls today show Labour down.

        • The Voice of Reason 12.1.1.1

          Er, nope. The TVNZ poll has Labour up. Both have ACT below 1%.
           
          And, as Guyon Espiner notes: “In my view National’s numbers looks too high. I can’t see them getting 56% of the vote on election night, in fact I’d be surprised if they got to 50%.”
           
          So if he’s right, that leaves Key needing extra seats from somewhere. UF, ACT and the MP have 9 or ten seats between them now, but more likely 3-4 after election day. If National drop to 47% they will need every one of those hangers on to get to a majority. Every percentage point National drops below that is crushing to Key’s hopes, and if UF or ACT don’t get over the line, the difficulties mount.

          • Armchair Critic 12.1.1.1.1

            It leaves them a Pansy Wong or a Richard Worth away from a mid-cycle general election. Lucky there are no rorters left in the National party, so it won’t happen.

          • tsmithfield 12.1.1.1.2

            You must admit, TVOR, that its pretty sad when you have to try and see the bright side in these sorts of results.

            • The Voice of Reason 12.1.1.1.2.1

              Not at all, ts. I’m pointing out that National have to keep winning at this level to be sure of victory. Their support partners are going to come a cropper no matter what National’s eventual percentage turns out to be and the maths says that they need 47% plus to be in the game. That’s a big ask.
               
              Now, I am annoyed that Key has got the headlines today. But that’s his only result in the first week of the campaign and, really, his best day in a month. The chump even managed to sprinkle loser dust all over the William Webb Ellis trophy. We now know that he can be rattled, that his wishy washy campaign can be derailed and that Phil Goff can match him in debates. And there is plenty of opportunity for Goff to improve, while Key has clearly peaked.
               
              Just as an aside, one trend I’ve taken interest in is NZF’s inability to pick up loose Labour votes. Why isn’t Winnie winning their support? I would have thought he would cannibalise at least a point or two from Labour’s swinging voters. Waddya reckon?

    • Hey Matthew

      What I want to know is you alleged Labour was trying to distort ipredict results and I gave you a classic example suggesting that the tories were actually doing it.  What is your response?

      As a media person you have an obligation to at least pretend to be independent rather than run tory attack lines.  So do you think that Ipredict was gamed by a right winger? 

      • Matthew Hooton 12.2.1

        My response is that I don’t know what the fuck you’re talking about

        • vto 12.2.1.1

          fuck

        • mickysavage 12.2.1.2

          Um
           
          You said that Labour was attempting to manipulate ipredict.  Your words are here.
           
          I then saw you commented on another Standard post and I asked this:
           
          “So Matthew …
           
          You posted an article on the electionresults site claiming that Labour was trying to manipulate the ipredict market.  Do you have the slightest shread of proof, even an itsy bitsy bit of proof that Labour did this?
           
          Yet you are strangely silent about the large shorting of Labour’s party vote at .31c?  Some one short sold 1,000 shares at that price obviously wanting to stop the price increasing beyond that point.
           
          I raised this on Red Alert and the order then magically disappeared.
          And why has electionresults not posted a very similar comment to this one that I made on the site?  After all if you are going to make these allegations on the web you should allow a contrary view, particularly one that is backed up by those fancy facty things.”
           
          Lanth also commented on the apparent attempted manipulation of the Labour Party vote here.
           
          So do you have any evidence whatsoever that a labour operative tried to manipulate ipredict or were you making shit up?  And what do you think about the apparent attempt by a presumably national leaning punter to manipulate ipredict?
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           

          • Pete George 12.2.1.2.1

            You’re spaced out again.

            I’m sure people with various connections try to manipulate iPredict. It’s impossible to know which ones have trading motives and which ones have political motives.

            I’ve noticed some major party moves. One example – just prior to the snapshot last week there was a big bundle that moved Nats and Greens aup and all other parties down, the smaller parties significantly.

            • mickysavage 12.2.1.2.1.1

              Geez Pete
               
              I am not complaining that there is manipulation.  I am complaining because Hoots blamed labour for one incident of it when there was no evidence whatsoever that Labour was involved.
               
              To any of these self annointed public commentators if they spout crap they should be held to account for it.
               

  12. Tom Gould 13

    In the old days, “perennial National Party press sec applicant Tracy Watkins” would be working on the gardening page and have nothing to do with politics during the campaign. How low standards have fallen.

  13. swordfish 14

    “Perennial National Party press sec applicant Tracy Watkins”

    Precisely, absolutely bloody precisely what I’ve always thought when reading her spin and Nact apologetics.

  14. gingercrush 15

    Always attack the journalist. What a bunch of lumptys. Disagree with a journalist and suddenly they’re in National’s back pocket. Very desperate stuff and sad really. Especially consider Labour also has a history of having press secretaries that were former journalists.

    I guess you lot are just going to get even bitter now that another poll is released that is bad for Labour and the left.

    • Tom Gould 15.1

      @ ginger, if it walks like a Tory, and talks like a Tory, and writes like a Tory, it probably is a Tory. Anyhow, after almost 4 years of craven promotion of Johnboy by the MSM, where is the surprise that one week of reasonably fair and balanced coverage has not closed a 20 point gap? Garner has been saying for months now that “Goff cannot win the election”, so he is hardly going to prove himself wrong, is he?

    • One Anonymous Bloke 15.2

      “Lumptys”? If you’re going to winge in Pomgolian at least you could spell it right!

  15. Willie Maley 16

    Hooten, what’s the highest National have ever polled on polling day?

    • willie maley 17.1

      Nick C, believing that is like still believing in the tooth fairy. It ain’t gonna happen.

      • Nick C 17.1.1

        Heh, who said I believed that that would be the result on election day?

        But it certainly doesn’t tell the story of a glorious Labour comeback does it, comrade?

        • Dan Hansen 17.1.1.1

          Does Eddie’s bind faith despite all evidence to the contray remind anybody else of that Iraqi information minister from the gulf war?

          http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muhammad_Saeed_al-Sahhaf

          His last public appearance as Information Minister was on April 8, 2003, when he said that the Americans “are going to surrender or be burned in their tanks. They will surrender, it is they who will surrender”.

  16. In all of this, it’s probably worth remembering that in the 2008 general election Labour and Greens combined got 40.7% (34 and 6.7%, respectively), National got 45%.

    In effect, Labour and the Greens combined are pretty much holding their vote at this stage. As was pointed out (even by people like Hootton, if I recall correctly), it was very close last time – much closer than people appreciated. In effect, it remains the case now.

    It’s the minor party vote from last time that will count. If ACT miss Epsom but get 2 or more percent; Mana get enough for 2 MPs; the Conservative Party miss Rodney but get a couple of percent …

    If the Maori Party, for example, are needed to get National over the line, what will they do about asset sales in any negotiation? What will they do about welfare ‘reform’?

    Then, there’s Christchurch

  17. Blue 19

    This will be a very interesting election in terms of how the poll results match up to the actual election results.

    I don’t believe for a second that National’s numbers are really as high as the polls put them. It’s getting to the point where it is frankly ludicrous what the polls are saying.

    National won in 2008 with 45% of the vote. They’ve had three years in office, and the gloss has started to wear off. Judging from social media and comments on news sites, National has taken a hit in the popularity stakes, especially after the downgrades and the Rena disaster, and Labour’s strong campaign.

    Yet the polls consistently show National over 50% (which has never happened under MMP) and able to govern alone, with no impact from any of the things mentioned above.

    National’s supporters can crow, but honestly, you do have to be pretty blinkered to think that these gravity-defying results can possibly represent reality.

    I think it’s time to say that landline phone polling has gone the way of telegrams and VCRs. What you would replace it with, I don’t know, but it clearly isn’t working anymore.

  18. tsmithfield 20

    I think the problem for the left in this election is that people look overseas and see how bad things could be if we were in the same shit as Europe, the US etc. Then they probably think things are very good here in comparison.

    Because of this, I think people feel positive about their situation even though it may not have improved or may even have gone backwards compared to the days when the world economy was booming. Thus, it is quite hard for Labour to gain traction because people are cutting the current government a lot of slack due to the difficult world environment and our relatively good one.

    • Craig Glen Eden 20.1

      You raise some very fair and interesting points ts. I think you could be right with this summary.

  19. gingercrush 21

    There are actually three things to keep an eye on. How accurate will the political polls be. They weren’t that bad in 2008 while some of them were hopeless in 2005 (I do suspect the tightness and the fact National faltered due to the Bretherens was a factor). Are phone based polls better than for instance Horizon. Personally, I think there are major problems with Horizon as their results are entirely opposite to either the polls or Ipredict. Then of course there is Ipredict. Is Ipredict something that in future will add value to political commentary or is it merely a stunt and entirely unreliable.

    Personally, I believe National will be between the polls and Ipredict and will be close to or just above 50%. The Greens will be at or around 8% and no greater than 9%. Labour will be around 30%. Act will be out. And Chauvel might just sneak past Dunne (that will be dependent mostly on what National voters decide to do). I just have no idea how the Maori party will fare. Hawawira will get in but as for the other electorates who knows.

    I also wonder how helpful social media in particular is to politics. Does it open up politics or does in fact help to obscure as both the left and right use and abuse it.. I suspect elements in both National and Labour in particular are using it to falsely create impressions on politics and issues. Therefore, social media is proving reactionary and often acting against actual opinion because of how capable manipulation can take place.

    • lprent 21.1

      With the polls, what gets interesting is looking at how accurate they were to the actual result 6 months before. They always tighten up before the election as they rapidly shift when people start thinking about what they will actually vote.

      Mostly it depends on turnout. As always when there is a initial national victory, there was a low turnout last election.

      I don’t think national will be anywhere near 50%. How close they are to 45% is going to be the question. Labour the same but for 35%. Greens at 7-9%. MP I think I’d pick 3 electorate seats. Mana probably 1 electorate and maybe a list MP. Have no idea on Dunne.

      Wasted vote about 5-6% mostly from NZF.

      • Brett Dale 21.1.1

        The only thing that the polls have been incorrect every election is having the Greens too high and then its only about 2% too high, within the margin of error.

    • lprent 21.2

      And the coalition building is likely to be interesting – 1996 levels of interesting..

  20. Every single poll since National has took office, says they can either govern alone or with their coalition partner, every single one.

    Are they are wrong? Are they that inaccurate? Thousands of polls over three years and they are all wrong????

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    4 days ago
  • We need to bring the police under control
    The last decade has seen a trend of increasing weapons availability to police. Assault rifles. Tasers on every hip. Guns in cars. And following the march 15 massacre, pistols on every hip, all over the country. At the same time, its also seen an increase in the abuse of force: ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • If you can’t measure it, does it exist?
    In the last couple of weeks, I’ve been busy preparing for our summer paper on Science Communication. Looking for something amusing about ‘risk’ in science, I came across this neat xkcd.com cartoon about why so many people come knocking on my door (or phoning me, or emailing me) desperately wanting ...
    SciBlogsBy Marcus Wilson
    4 days ago
  • Swinson’s swithering
    Jo Swinson is doing even worse at this Being Sensible lark that I'd thought.  I've just become aware of the following utterance
    .@KayBurley presses Lib Dem leader @joswinson on whether she would agree to a #Brexit deal 'no matter how bad a deal it is' as long as it had ...
    5 days ago
  • Women’s rights, trans ideology and Gramsci’s morbid symptoms
    by John Edmundson The International Socialist Organisation (ISO) have recently reposted a February article, by Romany Tasker-Poland, explaining ISO’s position in the “trans rights” debate.  It is available on their website and on their Facebook Page.  The article sets out to explain why “socialists support trans rights”.  It reads more ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    5 days ago
  • We need to take guns off police
    Today's IPCA report of police criminality: a police officer unalwfully tasered a fleeing suspect who posed no threat to anyone:The police watchdog has found an officer unlawfully tasered an Auckland man who broke his ankle jumping off a balcony to escape arrest. [...] To avoid arrest, the man jumped over ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • “Bringing kindness back”
    "Auckland City Mission: 10% of Kiwis experiencing food insecurity", RNZ, 16 October 2019:About half a million people are experiencing food insecurity, according to new research from the Auckland City Mission. Food insecurity, or food poverty, is defined as not having enough appropriate food. The City Mission said over the last ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Press Release: “Fake News” from Auckland City Council CCOs Board Chairs re pay and performance b...
    Media Statement for Immediate Release 16th October 2019 “Fake News” from Auckland City Council CCOs Board Chairs re pay and performance bonuses for top managers Despite comments from Auckland City Council CCOs Board Chairs re pay and performance bonuses for top managers—Herald Newspaper Tuesday Oct 15th–there is very little evidence ...
    Closing the GapBy Tracey Sharp
    5 days ago
  • Ever-So-Slightly Bonkers: Simon Bridges Plays To His Base.
    Would You Buy A Used Propaganda Video From This Man? Bridges and the National Party’s strategists have discovered that the ideas and attitudes considered acceptable by today’s editors and journalists are no longer enforceable. The rise and rise of the Internet and the social media platforms it spawned means that ...
    5 days ago
  • Asking for food
    There is plenty of evidence of the way the business mentality has permeated every level of society since the recrudescence of market liberalism 35 years ago. You only need to think of how citizens in need of help from their government, their state, their country, are now routinely described as ...
    Opposable ThumbBy Unknown
    5 days ago
  • Forty years of change in the jobs Kiwi do and the places they call home
    John MacCormick Over the last 40 years, New Zealanders – and people in other countries – have experienced big changes in the jobs they do and where they live and work. These changes include: a decline in manufacturing jobs an increase in jobs in ‘information-intensive’ industries (which are better paid ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    5 days ago
  • Protecting Fresh Waterways in Aotearoa/NZ: The Strong Public Health Case
    Nick Wilson, Leah Grout, Mereana Wilson, Anja Mizdrak, Phil Shoemack, Michael Baker Protecting waterways has the benefits of: (1) protecting water from hazardous microbes; (2) minimising cancer risk and other problems from nitrates in water; (3) avoiding algal blooms that are hazardous to health; (4) protecting mahinga kai uses (cultural ...
    SciBlogsBy Public Health Expert
    6 days ago
  • Massey University triggered to rebrand
    by The Council of Disobedient Women In a press release today Massey University announced it has decided to rebrand and reorientate after struggling to be a University for grown-ups. For some time the University has wanted to be a safe play space for wee-woke-misogynists who have been really badly triggered ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    6 days ago
  • Swinson backing calls for a second referendum (again)
    After a brief dalliance with 'hard Revoke' it looks like the Lib Dems are changing ground on on Brexit, with leader Jo Swinson reverting to calling for a second referendum on Johnson's deal.The party has tabled an amendment to the Queen’s speech requesting that any deal brought back from Brussels ...
    6 days ago
  • An odious bill
    The government has decided that someone has done Something Bad. But despite their belief, there seems to be no evidence that they have actually broken the law. So the government's solution is to pass a retrospective law allowing them to be punished anyway, on a lower standard of proof. If ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • National is now the party of climate arson
    So, Judith Collins has done a Facebook rant about climate change, peddling the same shit National has been shovelling for the past twenty years: the impacts are overstated, there's no need to do anything about it, and its too hard anyway (oh, and its so unfair that people who peddle ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • The environmental footprint of electric versus fossil car
    Climate Explained is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, please send it to climate.change@stuff.co.nz There is a lot of discussion on the benefits of ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    6 days ago
  • “Manifest” by Andrew Bird – A Song For The Times.
    I came across this song quite by accident. If it isn't one of Greta Thunberg's favourites - it should be.Video courtesy of YouTube.This post is exclusive to Bowalley Road. ...
    6 days ago
  • Passing the buck
    Last month, NZDF's shoddy coverup of what it knew about civilian casualties in Operation Burnham began to fall apart, with the revelation that a report on the matter, which NZDF claimed not to have, had been sitting in an NZDF safe for the past nine years. Yesterday, the man responsible ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • India a major player in Earth observation satellites
    While many imagine that countries like the USA and Europe dominate space activities, in fact India is now a major player on this stage. It launches satellites for its own purposes and also commercially, and has constellations orbiting our planet and returning data of vital importance to that nation in ...
    SciBlogsBy Duncan Steel
    7 days ago
  • The rot at the top (2).
    Thanks to a report from the Acting Inspector General of Intelligence and Security following a complaint by Nicky Hager, we have come to find out that the SIS illegally spied on Mr. Hager on behalf of the NZDF after publication of Hager’s 2011 book, Other People’s Wars. The NZDF justified ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    7 days ago
  • Common misconceptions about “Global Warming”
    COMMON MISCONCEPTIONS ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING MYTH 1: Global temperatures are rising at a rapid, unprecedented rate. FACT: The HadCRUT3 surface temperature index, produced by the Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office and the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, shows warming to 1878, cooling to 1911, ...
    An average kiwiBy admin@averagekiwi.com
    1 week ago
  • A climate of tyranny
    For the past week, Extinction Rebellion has been peacefully protesting in London to demand action on climate change. The British government's response? Ban their protests:Police have banned Extinction Rebellion protests from continuing anywhere in London, as they moved in almost without warning to clear protesters who remained at the movement’s ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Collins crushes climate
    An essay by Judith Collins MP reported on Carbon News yesterday seems to show an alarming shift in attitude within the National Party. Collins argues against the Zero Carbon Bill, the Paris Agreement, and downplays the magnitude of climate impacts. The Paris Agreement was adopted in December 2015 and ratified ...
    SciBlogsBy Robert McLachlan
    1 week ago
  • More disappointment
    When they were running for election, Labour promised to overhaul the Employment Relations Act and introduce fair pay agreements to set basic pay and conditions on an industry level, preventing bad employers from undercutting good ones. They followed this up by establishing a working group, which reported back in January ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • What do these mother-child studies really say about fluoridation?
    A list of indicators of bad science – many of these are found in articles promoted by anti-fluoride activists. Anti-fluoride activists have been pouring money into a scaremongering campaign warning pregnant women not to drink fluoridated water. They claim fluoride will lower the IQ of their future child. Fluoride ...
    1 week ago
  • Losing Labour’s Mills-Tone.
    Nothing Left To Say: Labour's pollster, Stephen Mills, remains swaddled-up in the comforting myths of the 1980s. As if the experience of Roger Douglas’s genuinely radical post-Muldoon policy agenda was literally a once-in-a-lifetime thing – as much as the party could possibly absorb for at least the next 50 years.MEMO ...
    1 week ago
  • Speaker: Disability and the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Historical Abuse
    The Royal Commission on abuse in care is very significant for the disability community. For many decades last century, thousands of disabled children, and adults who managed to survive, were locked away from families and communities. This was not for anything they had done, but for the perceived threat their ...
    1 week ago
  • Spain is not a democracy
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • UK Conservatives hate democracy
    With an unfair voting system, uneven electorates and an un-elected upper house, the UK's "democracy" is barely worthy of the name. But now the government wants to make it worse:The government has been accused of suppressing voters’ rights with the potential disenfranchisement of tens of thousands of people after plans ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • What is wrong with our building industry?
    Back in the 90's and early 2000's, the building industry was building leaky homes which should never have been granted consent. Now it turns out they've been building dodgy office blocks as well:New imaging technology has revealed hundreds of major buildings nationwide have defective or missing concrete or reinforcing steel. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Local bodies
    Local body election results were released over the weekend, to joy or despair depending on where you live. In Auckland, Phil Goff trounced John Tamihere, who is muttering darkly about running for Parliament again (but which party would want him?) Wellington is now a wholly-owned subsidiary of Weta Workshop, except ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • A future of government
      How could government evolve over the next decades? Reports of democracy’s imminent demise are greatly exaggerated.  However, satisfaction with political systems in many countries is low, so there is much to do for governments of all political stripes to improve relevance and trust. Digital technologies are seen as one ...
    SciBlogsBy Robert Hickson
    1 week ago
  • Speaker: Catalonia, interrupted
    Two years have now gone by since the Friday afternoon when my university-student son and I headed out of our Barcelona flat to a nearby primary school, designated as a polling station for the vote that was to be held the following Sunday: the referendum on Catalonia’s independence from Spain ...
    1 week ago
  • Sage Decisions Unwisely Over-Ruled.
    Overruled: The joint decision of Finance Minister, Grant Robertson (Labour) and his Associate Minister, David Parker (Labour) arguably the two most powerful ministers in Jacinda Ardern’s government, to grant OceanaGold the consents which Land Information Minister, Eugenie Sage (Greens) had earlier denied them, offers bitter proof of how hard fighting ...
    1 week ago
  • Government may ban voting in effort to get more people to do it
    More than double the number of people who will vote in this year’s local body elections have tried marijuana or urinated somewhere they shouldn’t have. As local elections look set for the lowest turnout in decades, with many regions falling well short of 40%, the Government is exploring a number ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Woman: Deleted.
    A Statement on Abortion Law Reform by the Council of Disobedient Women   On the eve of bringing an end to antiquated, anti-women abortion laws Green MP Jan Logie intends to write women out of the Bill. With a stroke of the pen, the woke are aiming for total erasure ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • The Hollowest of Men Ride Again… SURPRISE!
    Musings continue apace about “the experienced businessman!” soon to be taking up a National Party MP position. Or to be more accurate, being parachuted into a seat to shut down their former MP Jamie-Lee Ross, who despite his own shortcomings shed at least some more light on the inner workings ...
    exhALANtBy exhalantblog
    2 weeks ago
  • Barbaric
    The Ugandan government wants to murder gay people:Uganda has announced plans to impose the death penalty on homosexuals. The bill, colloquially known as “Kill the Gays” in Uganda, was nullified five years ago on a technicality, but the government said on Thursday it plans to resurrect it within weeks. The ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Is this study legit? 5 questions to ask when reading news stories of medical research
    Hassan Vally, La Trobe University Who doesn’t want to know if drinking that second or third cup of coffee a day will improve your memory, or if sleeping too much increases your risk of a heart attack? We’re invested in staying healthy and many of us are interested in reading ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    2 weeks ago
  • Fighting Monsters.
    Freedom Of Speech? The Säuberung (cleansing by fire) was the work of the German Student Union which, on 10 May 1933, under the watchful eye of the Nazi Reichminister for Propaganda, Joseph Goebbels, consigned 25,000 books to the flames in a ritual exorcism of “un-German thought”. According to the logic of the ...
    2 weeks ago
  • The next wave of kaupapa Māori politics: its constitutional, it must be.
      “There can be no such thing as kaupapa Māori political parties or politics in Aotearoa” (Willie Jackson, Labour Party (2017). Māori TV, General/List Election Special) I begin with that claim because at the time, I was confounded at first that it fell out of Willie Jackson’s mouth, and then ...
    EllipsisterBy Ellipsister
    2 weeks ago
  • Night lights of NZ from orbit
    New Zealand has prided itself for decades with regard to its lack of pollution, and all will be aware that the ‘100% Pure New Zealand‘ meme is under threat through land, water and air pollution of various causes. There is another type of contamination that the country also faces: light ...
    SciBlogsBy Duncan Steel
    2 weeks ago
  • Reporters deliver uplifting news to fleeing Japanese residents: they won’t miss any rugby
    New Zealand’s media is doing its part in Japan, reassuring those in the path of the storm that they won’t miss any rugby while away from their flooded homes. New Zealand sports reporters stationed in Japan for the Rugby World Cup have had the rare and heartwarming opportunity to inform ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Government in contentious discussions about whether to put surplus on red or black
    Regional Development Minister Shane Jones is the only Cabinet member in favour of putting it all on green. As Finance Minister Grant Robertson finds himself with an enormous $7.5 billion surplus, the Government has begun intense, at times contentious conversations about whether to put the money on red or black at ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Jordanian teachers’ successful strike has lessons for here
    by Susanne Kemp At the start of September close to 100,000 school teachers went on strike in Jordan.  They demanded a 50% pay rise.  A pay rise actually agreed to by the regime back in 2014. In early October, however, in the face of government repression and threats, the teachers’ ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Why some people still think climate change isn’t real
    Climate Explained is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, please send it to climate.change@stuff.co.nz Why do people still think climate change isn’t real? David ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    2 weeks ago
  • The SIS unlawfully spied on Nicky Hager
    Back in 2011, journalist Nicky Hager published Other People's Wars, an expose on NZDF's activities over the previous decade of the "war on terror". NZDF didn't like this, and especially didn't like the fact that it was base don leaks from their own. So, they had the SIS investigate him ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • October 2019 – Newsletter
    https://mailchi.mp/7d9133add053/closing-the-gap-october-2019-newsletter ...
    Closing the GapBy Tracey Sharp
    2 weeks ago
  • And they wonder why we think they’re environmental vandals…
    The Zero Carbon Bill is due back from select committee in two weeks, and will likely pass its final stages in November. So naturally, farmers are planning a hate-march against it. But they're not just demanding lower methane targets so they can keep on destroying the planet; they're also demanding ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Climate Change: Paying the price in California
    Last year, California burned. This year, to stop it happening again (or rather, to stop themselves from being found liable if it happens again), Pacific Gas and Electric is cutting power to half the state for a week:Schools are closed. Traffic lights down. Tunnels dark. Businesses unopened. Hospitals running on ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Let’s Hear It For Up-Close-And-Personal, Hard-Copy Democracy!
    The Best Way: Missing from the on-line voting debate is any reference to the voting system that produces turn-out figures ranging from 77 to 93 percent of registered voters. The voting system used to collect and count the votes cast in our parliamentary elections. The system that involves citizens making ...
    2 weeks ago
  • 10/10: World Day Against the Death Penalty
    Today, October 10, is the world day against the death penalty. Out of 195 UN member states, 84 still permit capital punishment. Today is the day we work to change that. This year's theme is children. Having a parent sentenced to death or executed causes long-term trauma and stigmatization which ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Talking Freer Lives: a Marxist gender-critical perspective from Australia
    Among the great new bunch of political friends we have been making recently is the excellent Australian-based Marxist gender-critical site, Freer Lives.  So we asked the comrade who set up that blog to write something for Redline on the blog, himself, his analysis of the rise of gender politics and ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Government spin accepted by union leadership
    by Don Franks  The Auckland City Mission is struggling with a 40 percent increase in demand for food parcels this year. A total of 23,020 were needed by June. Last month Missioner Chris Farrelly told the Herald the “cupboards are bare” and without an emergency food drive, he can’t see ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • Forbidden Thoughts
    by The Council of Disobedient Women   Massey Wellington Student Association had a sit-in today. Imagine a sit-in. On a campus. Against a women’s rights meeting. Did the ’60s really happen or did we fucking dream it? They gathered in the student square, an echo chamber. Sitting on soft pillows ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • Much love to my loyal Ukrainian readership
    For some reasons, my post about the mystery message from inside the Downing Street bunker seemed to catch people's attention.  Quite a lot of hits from NZ (unsurprisingly) and the USA (a bit more puzzlingly, but hi there, USAians!!) and 76 views from the Ukraine.I've celebrated my Ukrainian readers in ...
    2 weeks ago

  • Ngāi Tahu CEO appointed to NZ-China Council
    Minister for Māori Development, Nanaia Mahuta, has selected Arihia Bennett MNZM, Chief Executive Officer of Te Rūnanga o Ngāi Tahu, as the Te Puni Kōkiri appointed representative on the New Zealand-China Council. The New Zealand-China Council (the Council) was established in 2012 as a New Zealand led and funded organisation ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 hours ago
  • Southern Response claims move to EQC
    Responsibility for processing the small number of Southern Response claims still to be settled will be transferred to EQC by the end of the year. “As claim numbers reduce, it no longer makes sense for the Crown to have two organisations processing the remaining Canterbury claims,” Grant Robertson says. “Since ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 hours ago
  • Bowel screening starts in Whanganui
    Health Minister David Clark is encouraging Whanganui residents to take up the opportunity for free bowel screening, which can detect cancer early when it’s easier to treat.   Over the next two years 12,000 Whanganui locals, aged 60 to 74 will be invited to participate in the National Bowel Screening ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 hours ago
  • Pacific Peoples Minister to attend Our Ocean Conference in Norway
    Minister for Pacific Peoples Aupito William Sio, heads to Oslo today to represent New Zealand at the sixth Our Ocean Conference, which is being hosted by the Norwegian Government from the 23-24 October. “The Our Ocean Conference mobilises real action on issues like marine plastic pollution and the impacts of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Government announces 27 percent increase in Trades Academy places
    Two secondary-school initiatives are being expanded as part of the Government’s plan to see more young New Zealanders take up a trade to help close the skills gap.   This includes the largest single increase in Trades Academy places in recent years. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Education Minister Chris ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Speech to the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs, Pacific Futures Conference: Connection...
    Session 4: Pacific Connectivity – Youth, Media and New Opportunities   Kia ora tatou katoa and Warm Pacific greetings to one and all. Representatives of Tainui, the local people of the land, or manawhenua – the indigenous peoples of this area – have welcomed you this morning in accordance with ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Methane reducing cattle feed one step closer
    The Government today announced its support for a project that could substantially reduce agricultural greenhouse gas emissions from cattle. The announcement was made as part of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s and Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor’s visit to Nelson’s Cawthron Aquaculture Park. The Cawthron Institute will receive $100,000 from the Government’s ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Bill to refresh superannuation system passes first reading
    Social Development Minister Carmel Sepuloni has welcomed the first reading of the New Zealand Superannuation and Veteran’s Pension Legislation Amendment Bill. “Every New Zealander has a stake in New Zealand Superannuation and Veteran’s Pension,” says Carmel Sepuloni. “They are our most common form of social assistance – nearly 800,000 New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Government announces next steps in fight against measles
    Babies in Auckland aged six months and over can receive a free vaccination and children will all have access to vaccines, Associate Minister of Health Julie Anne Genter announced today at Papatoetoe High School.   The move comes as part of Government efforts to step up the fight against measles. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Speech to the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs, Pacific Futures: Connections, Identity...
    ***Check against delivery*** Good morning. It is a pleasure to be here, and to have the honour of opening this important conference on behalf of the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. Let us take the opportunity to acknowledge all the people who have helped make today possible, including our special ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Police trial new response to high risk events
    Police Minister Stuart Nash says the safety of frontline officers and members of the public will be the focus of a new trial of specialist Police response teams in three of our largest urban centres. Police have this morning released details of an initiative to be trialled in Counties Manukau, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • New awards celebrate fisheries sustainability
    The Minister of Fisheries is calling for entries for a new public award to celebrate innovation in our seafood sector. “I have established the Seafood Sustainability Awards to recognise and celebrate those throughout industry, tangata whenua and communities who demonstrate outstanding dedication and innovation towards the sustainability of New Zealand’s ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • More progress for women and we can do more
    Minister for Women Julie Anne Genter welcomes leaders in the private sector taking action on closing their gender pay gaps to ensure a fairer workplace for all New Zealanders. Ms Genter today launched a new report, Addressing the gender pay gap and driving women’s representation in senior leadership, from the Champions for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Proposals to curb environmental damage help our coasts and the oceans
    Government Ministers today welcomed the release of a marine environment report highlighting the four key issues affecting our oceans, estuaries and coastlines.  The release underlines the importance of government proposals to combat climate pollution, ensure clean freshwater, protect biodiversity, make land use more sustainable, and reduce waste and plastic.    Environment ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • New mental health facility for Waikato
    The Government has approved funding for a new acute mental health facility for Waikato which will provide better care and support to people with mental health and addiction issues. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Health Minister Dr David Clark announced the $100 million project to replace the aging Henry Rongomau ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • 500 new te reo Māori champions in our classrooms
    The Government is making progress on its goal to integrate te reo Māori into education by 2025, with over 500 teachers and support staff already graduating from Te Ahu o te Reo Māori,  Associate Education Minister Kelvin Davis announced today. Kelvin Davis made the announcement at an awards ceremony in Waikanae today, for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Minister James Shaw welcomes 2018 Census first release
    Statistics Minister James Shaw has welcomed the first release of 2018 Census data. The first release of data today, 23 September, includes key data on population, regional growth, the number of homes and the size of different ethnic groups in New Zealand. Data from the 2018 Census will support the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Driving transparency, ethics and accountability in government use of algorithms
    Minister for Statistics James Shaw today announced a public consultation on a proposed algorithm charter for government agencies. The charter has been developed by the Government Chief Data Steward in response to growing calls for more transparency in government use of data. Computer algorithms – procedures or formulas for solving ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • New Zealand and the Netherlands working together on climate change
    Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor, Climate Change Minister James Shaw and visiting Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte co-hosted a business roundtable in Auckland this morning focused on working together to address climate change.  “The Netherlands is an important partner for New Zealand. We share a strong agricultural history. Sustainable agribusiness and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Protecting fairness for workers and businesses
    The Government is taking action to build an inclusive economy where more of us receive our fair share at work and businesses can compete on great products and services, not undercutting wages and conditions, Immigration and Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Iain Lees-Galloway says. Two consultations launched today seek feedback ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Indigenous Freshwater Fish Bill Passes
    The future for New Zealand’s threatened indigenous freshwater fish looks brighter with the passing of the Conservation (Indigenous Freshwater Fish) Amendment Bill in Parliament today said Minister of Conservation, Eugenie Sage. “Until now, our freshwater fish legislation has been 20 years out of date. We have lacked effective tools to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Kiwis to take part in world’s biggest earthquake drill
    At 1.30pm tomorrow, hundreds of thousands of Kiwis will join about 65 million people around the globe in ShakeOut, the world’s biggest earthquake drill. The annual drill is to remind people of the right action to take during an earthquake which is to Drop, Cover, Hold, and to practise their ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Rising wages and low inflation supporting Kiwis
    Kiwis are benefiting from higher wage growth and low inflation under the Coalition Government. Stats NZ data out today shows the rise in the cost of living remains low, as annual Consumers Price Index (CPI) inflation fell to 1.5% in September from 1.7% in June. “The low inflation comes as ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • NZ economy strong amid global headwinds
    New Zealand’s economic strength and resilience has been recognised in a major update on the state of the global economy. The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook released overnight shows a reduced global growth forecast over the next two years as issues like the US-China trade war and Brexit take hold. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Keeping New Zealanders safer with better counter-terrorism laws
    Justice Minister Andrew Little has today introduced a new Bill to prevent terrorism and support the de-radicalisation of New Zealanders returning from overseas. The Terrorism Suppression (Control Orders) Bill gives the New Zealand Police the ability to apply to the High Court to impose control orders on New Zealanders who ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Improved succession and dispute resolution core of Ture Whenua changes
    A Bill that proposes targeted changes to simplify the processes for Māori land owners when engaging with the Māori Land Court has had its First Reading today. “The approach taken by the Government is to ensure that the protection of Māori land remains a priority as we seek to improve ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
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  • Speech to CTU Biennial Conference
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