Pollwatch: 5th August, 2018

Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, August 6th, 2018 - 40 comments
Categories: act, greens, jacinda ardern, labour, maori party, national, nz first, polls, Simon Bridges - Tags: , , ,

The pollwatch continues!The most likely result from Colmar Brunton's 5th august poll as a pie chart: 7 Greens, 51 Labour, 6 NZF, 1 ACT, and 55 National MPs.

In this ongoing series, I look at trends, why Matthew Hooton shouldn’t quote things out of context like I warned him not to, how healthy the Greens are, and whether National is on a decline. (I may disagree with my fellow author on that last one, at least somewhat)

Colmar Brunton, whose name I almost wrote as “pollmore,” came out with a poll on Sunday, pretty on the button for Jacinda Ardern’s return to the Prime Ministerial hotseat. (which likely means it was reflecting the end of Winston’s turn there when it was taken) It will surprise nobody to hear that Bridges continues to poll abysmally as National leader, Winston got a bit of a bump as Preferred PM when he was on his best possible behaviour, and Ardern is pretty steady, but as they’re not approval ratings and rather more of a name recognition, take that with a grain of salt. (although my understanding is that Bridges is underwater in net approval ratings, too)

The most likely result from this poll, featured right, isn’t particularly different from the current Parliament. It features NZF, the Greens, and Labour needing to govern together, but with NZF able to vote with National on issues where its social conservatism doesn’t allow it to compromise with the Government.

A pie graph of election simulations: 2.9% National-ACT governments, 8.8% hung parliaments, 46.7% NZF-Green-Labour govts, 41.7% Labour-Green govts. 2,000 simulations.Within the margins of error, there’s actually a lot going on here, so let’s go on to my simulation project. (basically, while the above Parliament is most likely, there’s still somewhere between 0.6% and 3% margin of error in each party’s result, so I run random distortions of each party’s result in excel, then put each set through an MMP seat calculation, and total who’s got the numbers to control who forms a govt via the fiendish art of addition and lookup references) No outright chance of a Labour-only government here like that crazy outlier poll in late February, and as I disclaimed last time, National’s odds of forming a government were artificially inflated by a very bad poll for both medium-sized parties, and were also an outlier.

Mostly, where NZF is over-threshold, (47.5% of the 2,000 simulations shown to the left) they have the numbers to be the kingmaker, but there’s a small sliver of times that the Greens actually had that 1 critical seat that would allow for a Labour-Green government. (most of that result, however, is from NZF falling under threshold, a scenario where it’s drastically unlikely National still manages to win based on this single poll) There’s now more likelihood that Parliament is hung and either NZF or ACT are forced to cross the floor or abstain to form a government than of National governing on its own or together with ACT.

Now only under threshold in 3% of simulations, the Greens are back on solid ground again at 6%, which given all that’s going on suggests a pretty stable base of support. (Matthew Hooton please take note, as he mischieviously misquoted my last analysis, with no link to debunk his own misinformation, that the Greens might actually end up under threshold on the strength of one public poll, a claim he has been suspiciously silent about since)

So let’s look at trends for a bit. Is National in decline? Well, yes and no. Their polling is steady, so in a completely objective sense, they’re not. You have to really get into subjective analysis to make any claim they are, and that’s because, honestly, the government has been spinning its wheels a bit with Ardern gone. Peters has been on relatively good behaviour and hasn’t crashed the car on a joyride, true, but neither has he wowed his skeptics. NZF’s insistence on the Electoral Integrity Amendment Bill is squeezing the Greens with our base, and making Labour look absolutely bankrupt. Meanwhile, Labour is the only party in Parliament that won’t commit to honouring the result on a referendum about decriminalizing cannabis, when even National says it will respect the result.

You’d be forgiven for thinking the opposition would be scoring points everywhere, but honestly, it’s failed to gain popular traction and even had some spectacular misfires- Chris Bishop thinking LinkedIn endorsements matter comes to mind, and their insistence on reinstating charter schools is preaching to the choir. And then there’s Dan Bidois claiming we should give authoritarians mandatory platforms. No thankyou. Even Hooton has stopped hooting about the possibility of a National Party-only moonshot strategy into government.

If anyone’s in decline here, objectively, it’s Labour, the only List party to go down in polling since May, with no strong push for labour laws, or making more money available in budgets for underpaid teachers or nurses possibly hitting them a little, (especially when there is objectively room to do so in this budget) but with all that happening, Ardern will be privately bewildered but ecstatic the Opposition haven’t scored a hit, and are still playing silly buggers pleading for charter schools.

So, that discussed, I’ve given you a new graph this time. This is a stacked line graph (think of it like a bunch of stacked bar graphs in a row, but easier to read when the results aren’t evenly spaced, like polling) The distance of each line from 0% (for National-ACT) or the line below it (everyone else) represents that scenario’s share of the overall probability- we can see NZF-controlled governments dominating the pre-election polls, with a revival of minor chances for both National and Labour-Green government scenarios at the end of the year. (the Green and red lines being in exactly the same place means no chance of Labour governing alone)

What this really shows is that since February, we’ve had a couple of blips, but overall whatever outcome we’ve had, if NZF doesn’t change sides, National doesn’t really have a hope, exactly like you’d expect. There have been strong results for Labour, and strong results for them together with the Greens, but not as strong lately with NZF now looking to have a decent chance of coming back in above threshold.

As always, this stuff is a bit early to call as results tend to adjust and become a bit closer up to an election, but right now it suggests there is broad support for the Government, the Greens are stable above the threshold, NZF is enjoying a bit of a bump, and Labour’s party vote is sagging just a little, likely with a small bleed of support to National, which has in turn bled slightly in favour of ACT. (who actually had two MPs in some of these scenarios, although with National contesting Epsom next election, there’s a real possibility of them having a rounder number, like zero.)

Oh, and I guess the Māori Party showed up at 1% again, but that doesn’t really mean much until we know if they have anyone who looks likely to win an electorate next time. (like New Zealand First that one time, we should probably give them the benefit of the doubt that they’re not entirely dead unless they lose two elections in a row)

40 comments on “Pollwatch: 5th August, 2018 ”

  1. Paaparakauta 1

    Umm .. yeah. Who’s going to win the next election ?

  2. Cinny 2

    That was really interesting, appreciate all the graphs and data, thanks for the info.

    simon appears angry and worried, I wonder how long until they roll him.

    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2018/08/bridges-no-bright-shiny-thing-playing-the-long-game.html

    • ianmac 2.1

      Cinny you could have added “bluster” to Simon’s list. (Re Newshub interview.)

    • mary_a 2.2

      Hi Cinny (2) … personally I think Simon will be rolled before Christmas. Have a feeling the two Natz nasties Collins and Mitchell are beginning to sharpen their knives.

      However, that said, in some respects I hope Bridges is still there leading Natz going into the next election, for obvious reasons.

    • Grantoc 2.3

      Cinny

      I imagine that he’s angry because the media insist on playing personality politics, whilst failing to focus on the more significant dynamics that are in play; such as National’s party vote remaining very strong and consistently ahead of Labour’s party vote.

      And also he probably angry because if the media insist on only focusing on the popularity contests, they are too lazy or too infatuated with Ardern to note that Arden’s vote was up just 1% point and that it failed to influence Labour’s party vote.

      And also, despite being in the spotlight for 6 weeks as Acting PM, Peter’s could only muster 5% in the popularity stakes compared with Bridges’ 10%. On the basis of your analysis Peters should be even more worried about his leadership.

      • Sacha 2.3.1

        “the more significant dynamics that are in play” – if we still had FPP. Two decades is long enough to get over that change, surely.

  3. dukeofurl 3

    Good that you mention they ARENT approval ratings.
    Are we the only western country that uses a ‘preferred PM’ polling when every one else uses the more rational approval ratings where each person is just given ‘approve/disapprove’ question on how they are doing their ‘current job’

    • Matthew Whitehead 3.1

      Newshub runs the net-approval poll I was mentioning, but hasn’t switched their reporting over from Preferred PM yet for some strange reason, even though having different results would be a draw factor.

  4. dukeofurl 4

    Couple of other points . national has always stood a candidate in Epsom, but not really contested it but the numbers are reasonable enough getting 28% to Seymours 43% in 2017. The ACT share has been fairly stable for some time after Hide went and Goldsmith peaked at 37% in 2011 to Banks 44%
    Trying to refer to 1 or 2% changes as meaning anything is pointless. Jumping around is what polls do and should be referred to as margin of error noise. For obvious reasons media abhor the phrase margin of error unless its in footnotes.

    • Matthew Whitehead 4.1

      Running a candidate and contesting an election are different. When contesting it you actually try to win.

      1% or 2% changes absolutely can mean things, the question is whether they persist or deepen in the next poll or not. That’s why we talk about looking at trends.

  5. dukeofurl 5

    Hooton ( note the spelling not Hooten, the Cheshire town is in the Doomsday Book as Hotone) is till bullshitting about the Greens leaving the Alliance party in 2002 as not happening under the waka jumping- which is absurd as it was called Alliance for a reason. Alliance of existing parties and Greens didnt leave the Caucus after they said they would stand under their own existing party name. In parliament there was no break of Greens Mps from their commitments to the Alliance right up till the house was dissolved for the election.
    Weird that a well known public relations professional has such a reputation for falsehoods.

    • Dennis Frank 5.1

      Well done. Domesday Book: “Domesday is just a Middle English spelling of doomsday, a name which only came to be applied to the survey a century after its compilation, at first facetiously as being an unavoidable and final judgement”.

    • alwyn 5.2

      It is also rather weird that you seem to think that anyone should take any notice of your comments when you don’t even know when the Alliance and the Green Party split.
      As a hint it was not 2002 so when you talk about “the Greens leaving the Alliance party in 2002” you are simply inventing history. Try using the line so often claimed for an old TV program, Dragnet. “”Just the facts, ma’am”.” That wasn’t ever actually said in the show either.

      • marty mars 5.2.1

        Yes but the fact of the comment IS correct. Hooton is wrong and deliberately imo trying to sully the greens. That s what rwnjs do.

        • Matthew Whitehead 5.2.1.1

          Yes, this is absolutely his game, and why he misrepresented me in the last Pollwatch.

  6. Wayne 6

    Looks pretty much like the continuation of the current situation, which has been the same since the election.
    Basically the current government gets back in. NZF and the Greens will both go with Labour in 2020, unless something drastic has happened, but if that happens the polls will change.

    • alwyn 6.1

      I imagine that the National Party will be a great deal happier about this poll that Labour would have been at the corresponding time in 2009.
      National were on 56% and Labour on 31% I believe.
      Actually I think that both NZF and the Green Party will be gone in 2020 with the 5% line for getting any seats. I wouldn’t be surprised if the current CoL try and drop the qualifying percentage for getting any seats down to about 3%. That is what they are going to need to get the rats and mice parties back into the house, but to stop Morgan having another go with his TOP lot.

      • Wayne 6.1.1

        If both NZF and the Greens go under 5% in 2020, I think a change of government would be just about certain.

        Will that happen to both NZF and the Greens?

        Difficult to predict at this stage, but more it is likely with NZF than with the Greens. Virtually all the Green vote is from the left, but the NZF vote is split between left and right. Some right voters will keep voting NZF to moderate the Labour/Green bloc, especially if it looks likely the left will be the next govt.

        • Dennis Frank 6.1.1.1

          I agree with all that. The next leader of the Nats will have to be a magician. One that can demonstrate real wizardry by conjuring up a coalition partner. Doesn’t rule out the incumbent – could be there was a phone call to Gareth: “Let’s talk.” Which would explain the peculiar decision to put TOP de-registration on hold pending unspecified discussions in non-smoke-filled rooms…

      • dukeofurl 6.1.2

        Why do you refer to 2009 ? The last time the situation mirrored now with labour in and national out was 2000. I dont have a number from the polls around then. And of course national is alone with its 44%.

        As for NZ First
        After the 2008 election, they stuck below 5% in the polls for 3 years and then at the election what happened ? yes it was 6.6%

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_New_Zealand_general_election,_2011

        • alwyn 6.1.2.1

          As far as I can find there were only 2 polls in 2000.
          One had Labour on 43 and National on 32.
          The other had Labour on 36 and National on 41.
          It its of course a more realistic comparison between 2009 and 2018. That is because in both cases the leaders of the losing parties in the election quit and there was a new, less well known replacement, for the leader of the party.
          After the 1999 election Jenny Shipley remained as the National leader for about 2 years.
          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_New_Zealand_general_election,_2002#Individual_polls_2

          You must remember that New Zealand First were not in Parliament after the 2008 election so wouldn’t have had any publicity until the next election. Looking at their polling in that period is pretty futile as they wouldn’t have been mentioned by any of the news outlets until the 2011 election approached.

    • Matthew Whitehead 6.2

      I agree that with any rational analysis this is a continuation of the previous trend, but not all the analysis on the last poll were rational. Some claimed it made a ridiculous moonshot strategy of a National-Labour parliament with National in government a real possibility. Those people were ill-informed.

  7. Puckish Rogue 7

    2 years out from the next election Nationals in not a bad position at all, 45% with an unpopular leader is pretty good especially given that both Sir john Key and Sir Bill English only recently left

    Imagine what’ll happen when/if Bridges is replaced with someone more electable

    • Dennis Frank 7.1

      “Imagine what’ll happen when/if Bridges is replaced with someone more electable”. I tried but it didn’t work. Perhaps replace electable with sexy?

    • AB 7.2

      “both Sir john Key and Sir Bill English only recently left … Imagine what’ll happen when/if Bridges is replaced with someone more electable”
      Sir Judith Collins
      Sir Puckish Rogue
      Sir Don Brash
      Sir Michelle Boag
      and many others – each truly a dark [k]night of the soul.

    • Robert Guyton 7.3

      The harder National works to make Bridges seem appealing, the more deflated National supporters will feel about the Party’s chances when he is ousted. They would be best to run him down in the public’s eyes now so that their new pony looks better when it’s taken out for its first prance.

      • Puckish Rogue 7.3.1

        Naah it’ll be more of a relief feeling rather than deflated

      • greywarshark 7.3.2

        For goodness sake Robert et al. Stop telling National how to do things better.
        Let sleeping Gnashional dogs lie under bridges I say.

        I suggest, and wait for this great pronouncement, we cut out advising National that Bridges is not this or that, just go Hmm and cut down the column lengths that go to aid the enemy. Because that is what National is. Every day news comes up about how their whole-hearted adoption of neeliberalism etc has led to us all being hole-hearted. And it can never be repaired; that hole.

        So let them go their complacent, callous way. And hope they trip over one of their great mistakes and get a bloody nose. They will have plenty of help to avoid it from their well-paid advisors. Why would the Left set out to provide helpful advice so they can finish us all off? At present we are on the Titanic. For God’s sake let us all keep watch, close the hatches, check the lifejackets, ensure that the navigation and life-support systems are working and set up sensible operating practice teams, with everybody on board having a share in the work that keeps it all going safely.

        • Puckish Rogue 7.3.2.1

          I don’t know for certain but I’m going to guess that Nationals tacticians don’t in fact follow The Standard for ideas on how to win elections

  8. Phil 8

    I love your work Matty, but that last chart is bloody grotesque.

    How does it look as a stacked area or even just a simple line chart?

  9. bwaghorn 9

    What really matters is wether Winston can get through another election . If he can’t anything could happen if nationals sleeper agent Jones gets the rains of nzf. With out them national can’t rule unless nzf and the greens slide under 5%.

  10. Bewildered 10

    Does not really matter who is in government, we have two major parties that back neo liberalism and capitalism, none promotes socialism over capitalism in regard to nationalisation of means of production ( thank god) , the only real difference is how much redistribution they promote vis social policy, even here not much different The whole nz political scene really just comes down to blue team vs red team re pick a side and celebrity

  11. mosa 11

    There is talk of Mark Mitchell heading a conservative party on the right to help National in 2020 with Rodney being the next gifted seat.
    A realignment on the right is overdue given ACT is terminal.

    • Matthew Whitehead 11.1

      Yes, it is overdue, and I prefer to go with cancerous. They sometimes grow but never in a healthy way.

  12. Jackel 12

    Yay though he appears as but a mouse yet watch him like a lion. These rwnjs are toxic, watch them with much awareness.

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    Muriel Newman writes – The Coalition Government says it is moving with speed to deliver campaign promises and reverse the damage done by Labour. One of their key commitments is to “defend the principle that New Zealanders are equal before the law.” To achieve this, they have pledged they “will not advance ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    1 day ago
  • An impermanent public service is a guarantee of very little else but failure
    Chris Trotter writes –  The absence of anything resembling a fightback from the public servants currently losing their jobs is interesting. State-sector workers’ collective fatalism in the face of Coalition cutbacks indicates a surprisingly broad acceptance of impermanence in the workplace. Fifty years ago, lay-offs in the thousands ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    1 day ago
  • What happens after the war – Mariupol
    Mariupol, on the Azov Sea coast, was one of the first cities to suffer almost complete destruction after the start of the Ukraine War started in late February 2022. We remember the scenes of absolute destruction of the houses and city structures. The deaths of innocent civilians – many of ...
    1 day ago
  • Babies and benefits – no good news
    Lindsay Mitchell writes – Ten years ago, I wrote the following in a Listener column: Every year around one in five new-born babies will be reliant on their caregivers benefit by Christmas. This pattern has persisted from at least 1993. For Maori the number jumps to over one in three.  ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    1 day ago
  • Should the RBNZ be looking through climate inflation?
    Climate change is expected to generate more and more extreme events, delivering a sort of structural shock to inflation that central banks will have to react to as if they were short-term cyclical issues. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāMy pick of the six newsey things to know from Aotearoa’s ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 day ago
  • Bernard's pick 'n' mix of the news links
    The top six news links I’ve seen elsewhere in the last 24 hours, as of 9:16 am on Thursday, April 18 are:Housing: Tauranga residents living in boats, vans RNZ Checkpoint Louise TernouthHousing: Waikato councillor says wastewater plant issues could hold up Sleepyhead building a massive company town Waikato Times Stephen ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 day ago
  • Gordon Campbell on the public sector carnage, and misogyny as terrorism
    It’s a simple deal. We pay taxes in order to finance the social services we want and need. The carnage now occurring across the public sector though, is breaking that contract. Over 3,000 jobs have been lost so far. Many are in crucial areas like Education where the impact of ...
    1 day ago
  • Meeting the Master Baiters
    Hi,A friend had their 40th over the weekend and decided to theme it after Curb Your Enthusiasm fashion icon Susie Greene. Captured in my tiny kitchen before I left the house, I ending up evoking a mix of old lesbian and Hillary Clinton — both unintentional.Me vs Hillary ClintonIf you’re ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    1 day ago
  • How extreme was the Earth's temperature in 2023
    This is a re-post from Andrew Dessler at the Climate Brink blog In 2023, the Earth reached temperature levels unprecedented in modern times. Given that, it’s reasonable to ask: What’s going on? There’s been lots of discussions by scientists about whether this is just the normal progression of global warming or if something ...
    1 day ago
  • Backbone, revisited
    The schools are on holiday and the sun is shining in the seaside village and all day long I have been seeing bunches of bikes; Mums, Dads, teens and toddlers chattering, laughing, happy, having a bloody great time together. Cheers, AT, for the bits of lane you’ve added lately around the ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    2 days ago
  • Ministers are not above the law
    Today in our National-led authoritarian nightmare: Shane Jones thinks Ministers should be above the law: New Zealand First MP Shane Jones is accusing the Waitangi Tribunal of over-stepping its mandate by subpoenaing a minister for its urgent hearing on the Oranga Tamariki claim. The tribunal is looking into the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • What’s the outfit you can hear going down the gurgler? Probably it’s David Parker’s Oceans Sec...
    Buzz from the Beehive Point  of Order first heard of the Oceans Secretariat in June 2021, when David Parker (remember him?) announced a multi-agency approach to protecting New Zealand’s marine ecosystems and fisheries. Parker (holding the Environment, and Oceans and Fisheries portfolios) broke the news at the annual Forest & ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    2 days ago
  • Will politicians let democracy die in the darkness?
    Bryce Edwards writes  – Politicians across the political spectrum are implicated in the New Zealand media’s failing health. Either through neglect or incompetent interventions, successive governments have failed to regulate, foster, and allow a healthy Fourth Estate that can adequately hold politicians and the powerful to account. ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    2 days ago
  • Matt Doocey doubles down on trans “healthcare”
    Citizen Science writes –  Last week saw two significant developments in the debate over the treatment of trans-identifying children and young people – the release in Britain of the final report of Dr Hilary Cass’s review into gender healthcare, and here in New Zealand, the news that the ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    2 days ago
  • A TikTok Prime Minister.
    One night while sleeping in my bed I had a beautiful dreamThat all the people of the world got together on the same wavelengthAnd began helping one anotherNow in this dream, universal love was the theme of the dayPeace and understanding and it happened this wayAfter such an eventful day ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    2 days ago
  • Texas Lessons
    This is a guest post by Oscar Simms who is a housing activist, volunteer for the Coalition for More Homes, and was the Labour Party candidate for Auckland Central at the last election. ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    2 days ago
  • Bernard's pick 'n' mix of the news links at 6:06 am
    The top six news links I’ve seen elsewhere in the last 24 hours as of 6:06 am on Wednesday, April 17 are:Must read: Secrecy shrouds which projects might be fast-tracked RNZ Farah HancockScoop: Revealed: Luxon has seven staffers working on social media content - partly paid for by taxpayer Newshub ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago
  • Fighting poverty on the holiday highway
    Turning what Labour called the “holiday highway” into a four-lane expressway from Auckland to Whangarei could bring at least an economic benefit of nearly two billion a year for Northland each year. And it could help bring an end to poverty in one of New Zealand’s most deprived regions. The ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    2 days ago
  • Bernard's six-stack of substacks at 6:26 pm
    Tonight’s six-stack includes: launching his substack with a bunch of his previous documentaries, including this 1992 interview with Dame Whina Cooper. and here crew give climate activists plenty to do, including this call to submit against the Fast Track Approvals bill. writes brilliantly here on his substack ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • At a glance – Is the science settled?
    On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
    3 days ago
  • Apposite Quotations.
    How Long Is Long Enough? Gaza under Israeli bombardment, July 2014. This posting is exclusive to Bowalley Road. ...
    3 days ago
  • What’s a life worth now?
    You're in the mall when you hear it: some kind of popping sound in the distance, kids with fireworks, maybe. But then a moment of eerie stillness is followed by more of the fireworks sound and there’s also screaming and shrieking and now here come people running for their lives.Does ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    3 days ago
  • Howling at the Moon
    Karl du Fresne writes –  There’s a crisis in the news media and the media are blaming it on everyone except themselves. Culpability is being deflected elsewhere – mainly to the hapless Minister of Communications, Melissa Lee, and the big social media platforms that are accused of hoovering ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago
  • Newshub is Dead.
    I don’t normally send out two newsletters in a day but I figured I’d say something about… the news. If two newsletters is a bit much then maybe just skip one, I don’t want to overload people. Alternatively if you’d be interested in sometimes receiving multiple, smaller updates from me, ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago
  • Seymour is chuffed about cutting early-learning red tape – but we hear, too, that Jones has loose...
    Buzz from the Beehive David Seymour and Winston Peters today signalled that at least two ministers of the Crown might be in Wellington today. Seymour (as Associate Minister of Education) announced the removal of more red tape, this time to make it easier for new early learning services to be ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    3 days ago
  • Bryce Edwards: Will politicians let democracy die in the darkness?
    Politicians across the political spectrum are implicated in the New Zealand media’s failing health. Either through neglect or incompetent interventions, successive governments have failed to regulate, foster, and allow a healthy Fourth Estate that can adequately hold politicians and the powerful to account. Our political system is suffering from the ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    3 days ago
  • Was Hawkesby entirely wrong?
    David Farrar  writes –  The Broadcasting Standards Authority ruled: Comments by radio host Kate Hawkesby suggesting Māori and Pacific patients were being prioritised for surgery due to their ethnicity were misleading and discriminatory, the Broadcasting Standards Authority has found. It is a fact such patients are prioritised. ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago
  • PRC shadow looms as the Solomons head for election
    PRC and its proxies in Solomons have been preparing for these elections for a long time. A lot of money, effort and intelligence have gone into ensuring an outcome that won’t compromise Beijing’s plans. Cleo Paskall writes – On April 17th the Solomon Islands, a country of ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago
  • Climate Change: Criminal ecocide
    We are in the middle of a climate crisis. Last year was (again) the hottest year on record. NOAA has just announced another global coral bleaching event. Floods are threatening UK food security. So naturally, Shane Jones wants to make it easier to mine coal: Resources Minister Shane Jones ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • Is saving one minute of a politician's time worth nearly $1 billion?
    Is speeding up the trip to and from Wellington airport by 12 minutes worth spending up more than $10 billion? Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The six news items that stood out to me in the last day to 8:26 am today are:The Lead: Transport Minister Simeon Brown announced ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • Long Tunnel or Long Con?
    Yesterday it was revealed that Transport Minister had asked Waka Kotahi to look at the options for a long tunnel through Wellington. State Highway 1 (SH1) through Wellington City is heavily congested at peak times and while planning continues on the duplicate Mt Victoria Tunnel and Basin Reserve project, the ...
    3 days ago
  • Smoke And Mirrors.
    You're a fraud, and you know itBut it's too good to throw it all awayAnyone would do the sameYou've got 'em goingAnd you're careful not to show itSometimes you even fool yourself a bitIt's like magicBut it's always been a smoke and mirrors gameAnyone would do the sameForty six billion ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago
  • What is Mexico doing about climate change?
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections The June general election in Mexico could mark a turning point in ensuring that the country’s climate policies better reflect the desire of its citizens to address the climate crisis, with both leading presidential candidates expressing support for renewable energy. Mexico is the ...
    3 days ago
  • State of humanity, 2024
    2024, it feels, keeps presenting us with ever more challenges, ever more dismay.Do you give up yet? It seems to ask.No? How about this? Or this?How about this?When I say 2024 I really mean the state of humanity in 2024.Saturday night, we watched Civil War because that is one terrifying cliff we've ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    4 days ago
  • Govt’s Wellington tunnel vision aims to ease the way to the airport (but zealous promoters of cycl...
    Buzz from the Beehive A pet project and governmental tunnel vision jump out from the latest batch of ministerial announcements. The government is keen to assure us of its concern for the wellbeing of our pets. It will be introducing pet bonds in a change to the Residential Tenancies Act ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago
  • The case for cultural connectedness
    A recent report generated from a Growing Up in New Zealand (GUiNZ) survey of 1,224 rangatahi Māori aged 11-12 found: Cultural connectedness was associated with fewer depression symptoms, anxiety symptoms and better quality of life. That sounds cut and dry. But further into the report the following appears: Cultural connectedness is ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • Useful context on public sector job cuts
    David Farrar writes –    The Herald reports: From the gory details of job-cuts news, you’d think the public service was being eviscerated.   While the media’s view of the cuts is incomplete, it’s also true that departments have been leaking the particulars faster than a Wellington ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell On When Racism Comes Disguised As Anti-racism
    Remember the good old days, back when New Zealand had a PM who could think and speak calmly and intelligently in whole sentences without blustering? Even while Iran’s drones and missiles were still being launched, Helen Clark was live on TVNZ expertly summing up the latest crisis in the Middle ...
    4 days ago
  • Govt ignored economic analysis of smokefree reversal
    Costello did not pass on analysis of the benefits of the smokefree reforms to Cabinet, emphasising instead the extra tax revenues of repealing them. Photo: Hagen Hopkins, Getty Images TL;DR: The six news items that stood out to me at 7:26 am today are:The Lead: Casey Costello never passed on ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • True Blue.
    True loveYou're the one I'm dreaming ofYour heart fits me like a gloveAnd I'm gonna be true blueBaby, I love youI’ve written about the job cuts in our news media last week. The impact on individuals, and the loss to Aotearoa of voices covering our news from different angles.That by ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago
  • Who is running New Zealand’s foreign policy?
    While commentators, including former Prime Minister Helen Clark, are noting a subtle shift in New Zealand’s foreign policy, which now places more emphasis on the United States, many have missed a key element of the shift. What National said before the election is not what the government is doing now. ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    4 days ago
  • 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #15
    A listing of 31 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, April 7, 2024 thru Sat, April 13, 2024. Story of the week Our story of the week is about adults in the room setting terms and conditions of ...
    5 days ago
  • Feline Friends and Fragile Fauna The Complexities of Cats in New Zealand’s Conservation Efforts

    Cats, with their independent spirit and beguiling purrs, have captured the hearts of humans for millennia. In New Zealand, felines are no exception, boasting the highest national cat ownership rate globally [definition cat nz cat foundation]. An estimated 1.134 million pet cats grace Kiwi households, compared to 683,000 dogs ...

    5 days ago
  • Or is that just they want us to think?
    Nice guy, that Peter Williams. Amiable, a calm air of no-nonsense capability, a winning smile. Everything you look for in a TV presenter and newsreader.I used to see him sometimes when I went to TVNZ to be a talking head or a panellist and we would yarn. Nice guy, that ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    5 days ago
  • Fact Brief – Did global warming stop in 1998?
    Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. This fact brief was written by Sue Bin Park in collaboration with members from our Skeptical Science team. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline. Did global warming stop in ...
    6 days ago
  • Arguing over a moot point.
    I have been following recent debates in the corporate and social media about whether it is a good idea for NZ to join what is known as “AUKUS Pillar Two.” AUKUS is the Australian-UK-US nuclear submarine building agreement in which … Continue reading ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    6 days ago
  • No Longer Trusted: Ageing Boomers, Laurie & Les, Talk Politics.
    Turning Point: What has turned me away from the mainstream news media is the very strong message that its been sending out for the last few years.” “And what message might that be?” “That the people who own it, the people who run it, and the people who provide its content, really don’t ...
    6 days ago
  • Mortgage rates at 10% anyone?
    No – nothing about that in PM Luxon’s nine-point plan to improve the lives of New Zealanders. But beyond our shores Jamie Dimon, the long-serving head of global bank J.P. Morgan Chase, reckons that the chances of a goldilocks soft landing for the economy are “a lot lower” than the ...
    Point of OrderBy xtrdnry
    6 days ago

  • Anzac commemorations, Türkiye relationship focus of visit
    Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters will represent the Government at Anzac Day commemorations on the Gallipoli Peninsula next week and engage with senior representatives of the Turkish government in Istanbul.    “The Gallipoli campaign is a defining event in our history. It will be a privilege to share the occasion ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    21 mins ago
  • Minister to Europe for OECD meeting, Anzac Day
    Science, Innovation and Technology and Defence Minister Judith Collins will next week attend the OECD Science and Technology Ministerial conference in Paris and Anzac Day commemorations in Belgium. “Science, innovation and technology have a major role to play in rebuilding our economy and achieving better health, environmental and social outcomes ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 hours ago
  • Comprehensive Partnership the goal for NZ and the Philippines
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr.  The Prime Minister was accompanied by MP Paulo Garcia, the first Filipino to be elected to a legislature outside the Philippines. During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon and President Marcos Jr discussed opportunities to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    14 hours ago
  • Government commits $20m to Westport flood protection
    The Government has announced that $20 million in funding will be made available to Westport to fund much needed flood protection around the town. This measure will significantly improve the resilience of the community, says Local Government Minister Simeon Brown. “The Westport community has already been allocated almost $3 million ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    20 hours ago
  • Taupō takes pole position
    The Government is proud to support the first ever Repco Supercars Championship event in Taupō as up to 70,000 motorsport fans attend the Taupō International Motorsport Park this weekend, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. “Anticipation for the ITM Taupō Super400 is huge, with tickets and accommodation selling out weeks ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    21 hours ago
  • Cost of living support for low-income homeowners
    Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced an increase to the Rates Rebate Scheme, putting money back into the pockets of low-income homeowners.  “The coalition Government is committed to bringing down the cost of living for New Zealanders. That includes targeted support for those Kiwis who are doing things tough, such ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    23 hours ago
  • Government backing mussel spat project
    The Coalition Government is investing in a project to boost survival rates of New Zealand mussels and grow the industry, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones has announced. “This project seeks to increase the resilience of our mussels and significantly boost the sector’s productivity,” Mr Jones says. “The project - ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    24 hours ago
  • Government focused on getting people into work
    Benefit figures released today underscore the importance of the Government’s plan to rebuild the economy and have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker Support, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “Benefit numbers are still significantly higher than when National was last in government, when there was about 70,000 fewer ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Clean energy key driver to reducing emissions
    The Government’s commitment to doubling New Zealand’s renewable energy capacity is backed by new data showing that clean energy has helped the country reach its lowest annual gross emissions since 1999, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. New Zealand’s latest Greenhouse Gas Inventory (1990-2022) published today, shows gross emissions fell ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Earthquake-prone buildings review brought forward
    The Government is bringing the earthquake-prone building review forward, with work to start immediately, and extending the deadline for remediations by four years, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “Our Government is focused on rebuilding the economy. A key part of our plan is to cut red tape that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Thailand and NZ to agree to Strategic Partnership
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and his Thai counterpart, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, have today agreed that New Zealand and the Kingdom of Thailand will upgrade the bilateral relationship to a Strategic Partnership by 2026. “New Zealand and Thailand have a lot to offer each other. We have a strong mutual desire to build ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government consults on extending coastal permits for ports
    RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop and Transport Minister Simeon Brown have today announced the Coalition Government’s intention to extend port coastal permits for a further 20 years, providing port operators with certainty to continue their operations. “The introduction of the Resource Management Act in 1991 required ports to obtain coastal ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Inflation coming down, but more work to do
    Today’s announcement that inflation is down to 4 per cent is encouraging news for Kiwis, but there is more work to be done - underlining the importance of the Government’s plan to get the economy back on track, acting Finance Minister Chris Bishop says. “Inflation is now at 4 per ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • School attendance restored as a priority in health advice
    Refreshed health guidance released today will help parents and schools make informed decisions about whether their child needs to be in school, addressing one of the key issues affecting school attendance, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. In recent years, consistently across all school terms, short-term illness or medical reasons ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Unnecessary bureaucracy cut in oceans sector
    Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones is streamlining high-level oceans management while maintaining a focus on supporting the sector’s role in the export-led recovery of the economy. “I am working to realise the untapped potential of our fishing and aquaculture sector. To achieve that we need to be smarter with ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Patterson promoting NZ’s wool sector at International Congress
    Associate Agriculture Minister Mark Patterson is speaking at the International Wool Textile Organisation Congress in Adelaide, promoting New Zealand wool, and outlining the coalition Government’s support for the revitalisation the sector.    "New Zealand’s wool exports reached $400 million in the year to 30 June 2023, and the coalition Government ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Removing red tape to help early learners thrive
    The Government is making legislative changes to make it easier for new early learning services to be established, and for existing services to operate, Associate Education Minister David Seymour says. The changes involve repealing the network approval provisions that apply when someone wants to establish a new early learning service, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • RMA changes to cut coal mining consent red tape
    Changes to the Resource Management Act will align consenting for coal mining to other forms of mining to reduce barriers that are holding back economic development, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The inconsistent treatment of coal mining compared with other extractive activities is burdensome red tape that fails to acknowledge ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • McClay reaffirms strong NZ-China trade relationship
    Trade, Agriculture and Forestry Minister Todd McClay has concluded productive discussions with ministerial counterparts in Beijing today, in support of the New Zealand-China trade and economic relationship. “My meeting with Commerce Minister Wang Wentao reaffirmed the complementary nature of the bilateral trade relationship, with our Free Trade Agreement at its ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Prime Minister Luxon acknowledges legacy of Singapore Prime Minister Lee
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon today paid tribute to Singapore’s outgoing Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong.   Meeting in Singapore today immediately before Prime Minister Lee announced he was stepping down, Prime Minister Luxon warmly acknowledged his counterpart’s almost twenty years as leader, and the enduring legacy he has left for Singapore and South East ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • PMs Luxon and Lee deepen Singapore-NZ ties
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. While in Singapore as part of his visit to South East Asia this week, Prime Minister Luxon also met with Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam and will meet with Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong.  During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Antarctica New Zealand Board appointments
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has made further appointments to the Board of Antarctica New Zealand as part of a continued effort to ensure the Scott Base Redevelopment project is delivered in a cost-effective and efficient manner.  The Minister has appointed Neville Harris as a new member of the Board. Mr ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Finance Minister travels to Washington DC
    Finance Minister Nicola Willis will travel to the United States on Tuesday to attend a meeting of the Five Finance Ministers group, with counterparts from Australia, the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom.  “I am looking forward to meeting with our Five Finance partners on how we can work ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Pet bonds a win/win for renters and landlords
    The coalition Government has today announced purrfect and pawsitive changes to the Residential Tenancies Act to give tenants with pets greater choice when looking for a rental property, says Housing Minister Chris Bishop. “Pets are important members of many Kiwi families. It’s estimated that around 64 per cent of New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Long Tunnel for SH1 Wellington being considered
    State Highway 1 (SH1) through Wellington City is heavily congested at peak times and while planning continues on the duplicate Mt Victoria Tunnel and Basin Reserve project, the Government has also asked NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) to consider and provide advice on a Long Tunnel option, Transport Minister Simeon Brown ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • New Zealand condemns Iranian strikes
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Foreign Minister Winston Peters have condemned Iran’s shocking and illegal strikes against Israel.    “These attacks are a major challenge to peace and stability in a region already under enormous pressure," Mr Luxon says.    "We are deeply concerned that miscalculation on any side could ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Huge interest in Government’s infrastructure plans
    Hundreds of people in little over a week have turned out in Northland to hear Regional Development Minister Shane Jones speak about plans for boosting the regional economy through infrastructure. About 200 people from the infrastructure and associated sectors attended an event headlined by Mr Jones in Whangarei today. Last ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Health Minister thanks outgoing Health New Zealand Chair
    Health Minister Dr Shane Reti has today thanked outgoing Health New Zealand – Te Whatu Ora Chair Dame Karen Poutasi for her service on the Board.   “Dame Karen tendered her resignation as Chair and as a member of the Board today,” says Dr Reti.  “I have asked her to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Roads of National Significance planning underway
    The NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) has signalled their proposed delivery approach for the Government’s 15 Roads of National Significance (RoNS), with the release of the State Highway Investment Proposal (SHIP) today, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.  “Boosting economic growth and productivity is a key part of the Government’s plan to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Navigating an unstable global environment
    New Zealand is renewing its connections with a world facing urgent challenges by pursuing an active, energetic foreign policy, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.   “Our country faces the most unstable global environment in decades,” Mr Peters says at the conclusion of two weeks of engagements in Egypt, Europe and the United States.    “We cannot afford to sit back in splendid ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • NZ welcomes Australian Governor-General
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has announced the Australian Governor-General, His Excellency General The Honourable David Hurley and his wife Her Excellency Mrs Linda Hurley, will make a State visit to New Zealand from Tuesday 16 April to Thursday 18 April. The visit reciprocates the State visit of former Governor-General Dame Patsy Reddy ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Pseudoephedrine back on shelves for Winter
    Associate Health Minister David Seymour has announced that Medsafe has approved 11 cold and flu medicines containing pseudoephedrine. Pharmaceutical suppliers have indicated they may be able to supply the first products in June. “This is much earlier than the original expectation of medicines being available by 2025. The Government recognised ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • NZ and the US: an ever closer partnership
    New Zealand and the United States have recommitted to their strategic partnership in Washington DC today, pledging to work ever more closely together in support of shared values and interests, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.    “The strategic environment that New Zealand and the United States face is considerably more ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Joint US and NZ declaration
    April 11, 2024 Joint Declaration by United States Secretary of State the Honorable Antony J. Blinken and New Zealand Minister of Foreign Affairs the Right Honourable Winston Peters We met today in Washington, D.C. to recommit to the historic partnership between our two countries and the principles that underpin it—rule ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • NZ and US to undertake further practical Pacific cooperation
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced further New Zealand cooperation with the United States in the Pacific Islands region through $16.4 million in funding for initiatives in digital connectivity and oceans and fisheries research.   “New Zealand can achieve more in the Pacific if we work together more urgently and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Government redress for Te Korowai o Wainuiārua
    The Government is continuing the bipartisan effort to restore its relationship with iwi as the Te Korowai o Wainuiārua Claims Settlement Bill passed its first reading in Parliament today, says Treaty Negotiations Minister Paul Goldsmith. “Historical grievances of Te Korowai o Wainuiārua relate to 19th century warfare, land purchased or taken ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Focus on outstanding minerals permit applications
    New Zealand Petroleum and Minerals is working to resolve almost 150 outstanding minerals permit applications by the end of the financial year, enabling valuable mining activity and signalling to the sector that New Zealand is open for business, Resources Minister Shane Jones says.  “While there are no set timeframes for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Applications open for NZ-Ireland Research Call
    The New Zealand and Irish governments have today announced that applications for the 2024 New Zealand-Ireland Joint Research Call on Agriculture and Climate Change are now open. This is the third research call in the three-year Joint Research Initiative pilot launched in 2022 by the Ministry for Primary Industries and Ireland’s ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Tenancy rules changes to improve rental market
    The coalition Government has today announced changes to the Residential Tenancies Act to encourage landlords back to the rental property market, says Housing Minister Chris Bishop. “The previous Government waged a war on landlords. Many landlords told us this caused them to exit the rental market altogether. It caused worse ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Boosting NZ’s trade and agricultural relationship with China
    Trade and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay will visit China next week, to strengthen relationships, support Kiwi exporters and promote New Zealand businesses on the world stage. “China is one of New Zealand’s most significant trade and economic relationships and remains an important destination for New Zealand’s products, accounting for nearly 22 per cent of our good and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

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