Pollwatch: 9th June 2019

Written By: - Date published: 4:00 pm, June 10th, 2019 - 27 comments
Categories: act, greens, labour, national, nz first, polls - Tags: , , , , ,

We had both major polls out yesterday, as noted in previous stories, and boy were the results a doozy! In addition to twice my usual talk about models, we’re going to get into the assumption some people are no doubt already making- that one of the polls is “wrong,” or more technically, rogue.

For those who want the raw results, I won’t summarize them in detail but will rather link them from here, except to say that Reid Research (Newshub) shows basically what we’ve come to expect recently: National performing poorly, Labour ascendant, the Greens improved slightly from last election, and NZF below threshold. Colmar Brunton (TVNZ) shows New Zealand First over threshold and just able to choose who would govern, but Labour on the verge of being able to choose between them and the Greens, so a slightly stronger result for the Government than the last election, but not as strong as recent polling has indicated, and fundamentally the same result if it were mirrored in 2020.

Also worth noting in leadership polling: Ardern continues to rate well in Reid Research’s net approval rating, (last image at this link, as usual the news continues to highlight PPM) at 56.9% higher approval than disapproval, while Bridges continues to be a drag on his party, at -38.6% net approval. (For context, Trump’s overall approval numbers are about twice as high as Bridges’) If we assume everyone who approves of Bridges is a National voter, this means that at least 20% of the country would vote for National but don’t approve of Bridges’ performance. Given that 7-8% of voters prefer Collins as Prime Minister in the media’s favourite but actually very-unuseful poll question, Preferred Prime Minister, we can conclude that there’s still at least 12% of National Voters that would like Anyone Else But Collins, and with Simon’s 17.4% approval rating, that 20% existing is pretty disastrous. He doesn’t command the majority support of voters in his own party.

Colmar Brunton poll pie graph: Labour-Green coalition 49.5%, NZF chooses Government 46.8%, Hung Parliament 2.7%, National-Act coalition: 1%On to the important part: The party vote results, and what they show in terms of probability. Colmar Brunton’s poll is interesting here, although the most likely result is New Zealand First being required for a Labour Government, it’s not the only result by far. My model has likely had a streak of luck hurting NZF in the above graph, as they were below threshold 51.3% of the time, (the Greens were below 2% of the time in these simulations) so likely there’s a 90-95% chance that if NZF were above threshold as this poll suggests, they would be necessary to govern, however when they’re below, it’s reasonable to conclude we’d get a Labour-Green government, as the Hung Parliament and National Government probabilities are so low.

Reid Research’s graph is so boring as to be barely worth talking about: We get a landslide Labour government based on those results, every single time, as the wasted vote is so high that the probability of Labour dipping under that 50% mark due to the margin of error is irrelevant. It is quite frankly too strong a result for labour, and we should hope that we don’t see many polls like this near the 2020 election, as I don’t really want to see what Labour’s like with that level of impunity- having a coalition partner be necessary is good for the health of our democracy. It is however worth noting that National also broke 50% a few times in mid-term polling, so we shouldn’t be entirely alarmed, as hitting it now and then is probably just normal noise from the margin of error, and of course, even ascendant parties tend to lose some support near an election, too, as kiwis aren’t too fond of majority government anymore. In this set of simulations, NZF were always below threshold, and the Greens were below 0.9% of the time.

As to whether one poll or the other is right: Most likely, the truth lies between these two. Colmar Brunton’s (TVNZ) poll gives an unlikely surge to National and New Zealand First, and Reid Research’s (Newshub) poll gives an unlikely surge to Labour. Here’s what my weighted average (mostly from these two polls and the one beforehand, but also including a tiny fraction of the three polls before that) looks like: A Labour-Green government with NZF out of the picture, and the opposition having 54 seats, assuming National doesn’t decide to run ACT out of Epsom. (I put the odds of Seymour losing his electorate at a nominal 5% in my model for exactly this reason, and there has been talk of doing this, however I hear the current policy is to continue their implicit support of ACT)

The trendline looks really similar to before: as usual, spikes of NZF going over and under threshold, spikes of the Nats or a hung parliament being non-zero chances, and spikes of Labour not needing the Greens, but the overall trend looks like the public continue to support results that lead to a Labour-Green government without New Zealand First.

If I absolutely had to pick one poll over the other, I would note that the Reid Research poll is actually closer to the trend, and that last election, it and Horizon were the only ones that really rated NZF correctly when they had what we can now tell was their late surge. I’m tentatively willing to credit that this might be due to the superiority of online panels supplementing landline polls, as the Colmar Brunton poll only calls mobiles and landlines to get its data, which might lead to it overestimating people who are more likely to answer phone calls. (who would likely tend to be older, richer, and more conservative voters, regardless of whether they answer landlines or not. Younger voters are less inclined to answer a call unless they know where it’s coming from) However, I think what’s likely happened is that Colmar Brunton has had a rogue poll, and Reid Research has had one that overstates Labour’s support a little bit, but is probably still within the margin of error- we’ll see how things look at the next poll, but this isn’t some Great Big Crisis or a matter of alternative reality, and both polls are useful data points we shouldn’t want to go away.

27 comments on “Pollwatch: 9th June 2019 ”

  • Comments are now closed

  1. Robert Guyton 1
    10 June 2019 at 4:43 pm

    We win!

    • Matthew Whitehead 1.1
      10 June 2019 at 5:38 pm

      Too early to say that, we're not even approaching the election.

      I'd go with "reports of our unpopularity have been grossly exaggerated." wink

    • Heather Grimwoood 1.2
      10 June 2019 at 5:42 pm

      To RG at 1: But must not become complacent!

    • Sacha 1.3
      10 June 2019 at 6:47 pm

      for some value of 'we'.

      • Matthew Whitehead 1.3.1
        10 June 2019 at 8:55 pm

        I mean, a lot of the commenters here are going to be referring to the Greens and Labour as "we?" It's not unreasonable, in my opinion. NZ First, despite being in government with us, and more in government than the party I'm a member of in fact, are not a left-wing party by any traditional definition, and would very likely object to being labelled as a socially liberal party too, despite agreeing with some good common sense liberal social policy from time to time. If you're a partisan for them that's fine, but that's not a perspective I'm ever going to fully agree with in my more opinion-based posts or my comments, and it's not unreasonable for NZF to not be included in every comment by every Labour supporter posting here, either.

        If that is what you're getting at I would definitely agree I don't think it's good news for NZF, although it could be if I'm wrong that Colmar Brunton's poll is more likely to be rogue than Reid Research's, as them being at 5% again would probably have Winston enjoying a good drink in celebration. wink

        That said, I'm relatively independently minded and try to be fair- New Zealand First should get credit for what they've convinced Labour to do, whether good or bad, and the performance of their ministers, and all of their original policy ideas, ofc. But that's not what this post is about. smiley It's purely trying to inject some statistics into looking at polls to give us all a more accurate picture, and hopefully for those interested I'm doing it understandably.

        If you're with the Greens and/or Labour it's probably good news overall, no matter how you slice it, as again, I don't yet rate the possibility that Labour won't need a coalition partner after 2020 as realistic, I think there would be some softer left-wing Labour supporters who would tactically vote Green to prevent that happening if Ardern looks likely to win that hard, and I don't think she's likely to cruise into the election campaign at 50%, lol. I expect she's got Labour at 47% or maybe somewhere slightly north in actuality.

        • swordfish 1.3.1.1
          10 June 2019 at 11:15 pm

          NZ First, despite being in government with us, and more in government than the party I'm a member of in fact, are not a left-wing party by any traditional definition, and would very likely object to being labelled as a socially liberal party too, despite agreeing with some good common sense liberal social policy from time to time.

          Not so sure about that.

          Put aside Party Elites and focus instead on the views of NZF Voters (as measured by the various iterations of the New Zealand Election Study).

          The New Zealand Election Study (2008-2014) suggests:

          – those swinging to NZF have disproportionately come from a Labour-voting background (& – as with most smaller parties – switchers comprise a significant segment of NZF support).

          Over those 3 consecutive Elections, close to two-thirds of switchers to Winston's Party came courtesy of the Left (overwhelmingly former Labour supporters … but also a small segment of former Greens) / one-third from the Right (overwhelmingly former National voters … but also a minority from ACT / Cons / Maori Party). (my calculations from raw Flow-of-the-Vote stats from the 08-14 NZES).

          – The NZF voting-base can best be seen as a segment of the morally-conservative Left. Most of the latter group still vote Labour, but a section have moved in Winston's direction over the last two or more decades, particularly during the Key years. (Although they haven’t always remained particularly Loyal).

          – Which, in turn, explains why NZF voters have chosen Labour as their preferred Coalition partner in 3 out of the last 4 General Elections (including overwhelmingly in 2017).

          – And why a strong positive correlation exists between Labour & NZF voters in terms of liking the other Party (as well, incidentally & somewhat surprisingly, as a not-quite-so strong but still positive correlation between Green & NZF voter like reciprocality) (again from NZES)

          – So what I'm suggesting, just to be clear, is that – while NZF's support-base is no doubt composed of a variety of ideologically discrete groups … the Economically Right-leaning component is relatively small.

        • Yes … Winston's voters do tend toward moral conservatism on the Liberal / Libertarian … vs … Conservative / Authoritarian Moral spectrum.

          But on the other key axis – the classic one – the Left vs Right Economic spectrum … a large majority of them are spread across the Left side of the spectrum. Winston’s supporters are fundamentally opposed to central aspects of the Neo-Liberal order.

  • Sacha 1.3.1.2
    11 June 2019 at 7:20 pm

    (I wasn't being deep and meaningful)

    It's just a universally-applicable exclamation. #we

  • Kat 2
    10 June 2019 at 5:53 pm

    What would be interesting following the election in 2020 is if Labour stays in the mid to high 40's and both the Greens and NZ1 had the same % and equally corresponding number of seats. There is only a tiny % between them at the moment.

    • Matthew Whitehead 2.1
      10 June 2019 at 8:21 pm

      That wouldn't necessarily be interesting because the maths might add up to exactly the same coalition arrangement. I take it you're referring to labour being able to work with either party whenever it wants as a minority government?

      That's certainly better than today's arrangement because where Labour and the Greens agree they can ignore NZ First, but if you support genuine left-wing change and/or liberal social values it's not as good because Labour can choose to work with NZ First whenever it wants if it's worried about being "too left-wing." *insert eyeroll here*

      • Kat 2.1.1
        10 June 2019 at 9:44 pm

        Appreciate your take on it Matthew, however my hypothesis put forward the conundrum of the PM having to allocate govt bench status from two aligned support party's of equal numbers. Winston or James, jokers to the left, clowns to the right…..etc etc.

        However I do regard Winston as a very important piece in the political jigsaw puzzle at the moment and he has my support.

        • Matthew Whitehead 2.1.1.1
          10 June 2019 at 9:57 pm

          Ah, I see! As a Green myself I hope you're calling us the jokers, clowns are disturbing. 🙂

          Having two equally-sized coalition partners would suggest you should give them an equal number of ministers, roughly proportional to their parties' size as part of the government, the main issue to deal with is figuring out which NZF MPs have the chops to actually act as Ministers, (I think they got all the ones that could reasonably made Ministers already in this round of negotiations) as it's not as if it's a deep bench for their size, and what happens if one of them has a scandal, etc- does it undermine the government if they lose a minister because there's nobody ready to stand up within that party to replace them? Fortunately not so much of an issue with the Greens, as even our youngest backbencher is embarassing the Deputy Opposition Leader so much she's skipping head-to-head debates. 😉 I know the Greens got an undersecretary instead of a Minister to balance out the difference in size between the two parties this term, and I, like James, think that was a good deal and fair to everyone involved.

          Far more difficult has been dealing with Labour giving in much more to New Zealand First on policy issues due to the fact that they're actually willing to indulge less progressive options in terms of passing laws, or switching around who gets to govern, but I think Winston also knows there's a lot of pressure on NZF to stay the course, as he's already been part of one government implosion and he will be the front of the list if this government can't be made to work, especially with the Greens compromising so much to make our unlikely team work together.

          • Kat 2.1.1.1.1
            10 June 2019 at 10:17 pm

            Reality is JA needs a clear majority to be in the commanding position to allocate the make up of the next govt. Winston has been the scene setter up to now, if the Greens equalise with NZ1 support then who gets the "big" fishies when that boat comes in is the question. I do believe James will equally make a competent #2IC.

            I support the broad current coalition makeup because it keeps National out…indefinitely at least.

  • NZJester 3
    10 June 2019 at 6:01 pm

    I think the way these poles are taken they are getting less and less accurate with the true margin of error going up.

    A lot of people will not answer calls from numbers they do not know unless they have been warned to expect a call from someone who they don't currently know the number of.

    • Matthew Whitehead 3.1
      10 June 2019 at 8:27 pm

      No such thing as "true margin of error." Margin of error is a statistical concept relating to getting a good idea of what's going on in a larger population by polling a smaller, randomly selected but representative, group. What you're referring to is methodological inexactitude, or bad decisions about how to run a poll that don't relate to statistics, and thus have nothing to do with a quantifiable margin of error.

      That said, yes, since land lines have become less common and people are answering unsolicited calls less, polls have found it harder to manage. This is why I'm willing to tentatively guess based on their and Horizon Panel's performance at the last election that Reid Research has hit onto a more accurate formula mixing landline calls with online panels- (they're still randomly selected, but from within a group of people who have signed up online to be surveyed, and then they track them and make sure they're not re-polled for a long time afterwards) eventually it'll have to be mobile calls and online panels IMO, which will be harder. Colmar Brunton does absolutely exclusively suffer from the problem you mention.

      I think we will expect more rogues from Colmar Brunton in the future if they are unable or unwilling to move to a model that incorporates internet panels.

  • SPC 4
    10 June 2019 at 6:12 pm

    Hopefully Labour is in the position to choose either NZ First or Greens in 2020 as its coalition partners and National has no options.

    I will vote Green (they now favour looser fiscal policy than they did in agreement with Labour in 2017), but I appreciate that the team and its relative position compared to National will be strongest in this context.

    It's a sufficient relative bump for Greens relative to NZF for me. I'd rather they go for a mandate for the three to be returned for another term, rather than aspire to a Labour-Green coalition.

    All it requires is Labour saying it would seek confidence and supply agreements with both. A broad continuance of the programme but with slightly more power with Labour in terms of day to day decisions.

    • Matthew Whitehead 4.1
      10 June 2019 at 8:35 pm

      Haha in terms of what I'm personally hoping for it's definitely the Greens being necessary for Labour to govern and them having no other option. It would greatly assist with actually getting issues like fighting poverty, taking real, urgent action on climate change, etc… done properly. We are absolutely stymied on a lot of issues with NZF necessary to pass laws right now, and there are still some areas like welfare reform where even Labour is an obstacle, and being the only coalition partner would make fixing things a lot easier.

      Labour will obviously as always seek to form agreements with as many parties as it practically can after the next election, but might try and throw a small party under the bus if they're not sufficiently credible as a coalition partner to them. The Māori Party comes to mind. We're on the same team for now but don't think relying on Labour forever as a supporter of a smaller party is a secure strategy, you want to think about growing.

      (I will note that we're beginning to see some change along these lines in Europe, with Germany polling like they're expecting a "Green/red/red" government, with the Greens the largest Party in the Bundestag at about 30% of the vote, and likely able to govern if they can negotiate an agreement with the Left party (which incorporates the former East German communist party) and the Social Democratic Party as similarly-sized junior partners. (Think Labour, if they were much more centrist and willing to coalesce with National to lock out the far-right and far-left parties) It's not impossible for social democratic politics to stop being the primary choice for those on the left if people are frustrated enough with its lack of delivery)

  • WILD KATIPO 5
    10 June 2019 at 8:34 pm

    Oh what a load of old zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

    The coalition will be back in 2020.

    Its that's simple.

    Bridges and his non existent bridges for Northland are buggered.

    The people of this land have not forgotten.

    End of story.

    And neither have they forgotten the interview with John Campbell either. He's toast.

    • Matthew Whitehead 5.1
      10 June 2019 at 8:36 pm

      Nobody's forcing you to read or comment, mate.

      • WILD KATIPO 5.1.1
        10 June 2019 at 9:00 pm

        [Argh, sorry, I accidentally edited your reply instead of replying to it myself somehow, and forgot exactly what the original said. My bad. 🙁 Feel free to repost it for the record, and I’ll put it back into this post! -MjW]

        • Matthew Whitehead 5.1.1.1
          10 June 2019 at 9:10 pm

          What do you mean by "Step up?"

          I've been doing a little statistics on this stuff since before I started posting on The Standard, you've never had an issue with anything I've posted about that until now. I don't mind if this isn't your thing, I understand looking at polls can be horse-racy and that's not the best way to understand politics overall, but it also gives us some barometer too if we DON'T discuss it in a horse-race manner where being ahead justifies you to continue being ahead, and we call out when we need to wait to a future poll to draw conclusions, etc…

          Just skip the pollwatch posts if you don't like them. I like to know where we stand, and how likely various government types are based on the polling results. I will try to post on other issues now I have some time again, but I am also into policy details and electoral reform and lots of things people find dry, so if I'm not your bag as an author please just skip my stuff rather than annoying yourself with it, I won't be offended and it shouldn't bother you either if not everything on the site is what you want to read! 🙂

  • MickeyBoyle 6
    10 June 2019 at 8:54 pm

    Hilary Clinton and Bill Shorten thought they had it in the bag also, polling didnt work out so well for them. There are alot of people lying to pollsters now, do you take that into consideration?

    • Matthew Whitehead 6.1
      10 June 2019 at 9:02 pm

      Bill Shorten was an actual example of polling being off, sure. It's still the best indicator we have, and if the methodology is good it's statistically valid. What this suggests is that Australia is showing that we actually need to move beyond traditional call-based polling as the only method to sample political opinions, and hey, we've already started that in New Zealand.

      Hillary Clinton wasn't- her popular vote performance (the only thing that can be measured by national polling) was within the margin of error of pre-election polls, and the only states the state polling wasn't indicative for were ones where the polls didn't keep up with the change because they weren't considered even close to being battleground states based on early polling. The only thing that swung it for Donald Trump is their crazy refusal to update their presidential elections from a system designed for when voting results had to be carried to the capital on horseback.

  • peterlepaysan 7
    10 June 2019 at 9:12 pm

    There are a lot of sceptical questions (I am an avowed sceptic).

    Questions about preferred leadership are stupid.

    Leave that to the USA, and look at what happened there.

    Methodology matters.

    Social media responses are reliable??

    Recently, in Oz where it is legal to do surveys of voters after leaving polling booths the election result showed a lot of people lied about they had voted. Labour should have won. Sigh.

    People lie, especially on "social media".

    Anarchists are going to love this, but hate silicon valley control, ( I surmise).

    I

    • Matthew Whitehead 7.1
      10 June 2019 at 9:48 pm

      Questions about leadership are relevant. I am staunchly in favour of a parliamentary system and elections that focus primarily on parties and policy, but it's still relevant within those systems to know that we have a reliable Prime Minister who is capable of handling the stress, managing to listen to others and also have their own opinions, able to lead effectively. Knowing if the leaders of our two biggest parties have public approval is part of whether they're *seen* to do that. What we can't do is make it all about that like the news do, but in situations like the opposition is in now, net approval ratings are very relevant, as they would be if the PM were trying to ignore criticism from the media and her ratings took a sharp decline. Bridges is not tenable as a potential Prime Minister with such low support, but the decision as to what to do is of course for National partisans, not us.

      Not sure why you're talking about Social Media- I don't mention it in the post or comments at all? If you're referring to "online panels," that's not social media. It's a system of scientific polling online, where you invite people to sign up for surveys and market research, and the polling company randomly includes those people, very infrequently, in opinion polls rather than trying to randomly cold-call them in traditional polling style. It's still in its infancy as a polling technique, but I'd say early results suggest it's going to be much more reliable than simply adding mobile phones to the cold-calling approach as use of land lines has begun its decline already, and is likely to sharply decline as baby boomers go cell-only or, well, die off.

      • peterlepaysan 7.1.1
        10 June 2019 at 10:25 pm

        Actually I was not responding to your post.

        My comment (obscurely) referred to pollsters methodology.

        What were there sources? Landlines, cellphones, Facebook.
        How were the demographics chosen?

        The pollsters are in trouble, as the chattering classes, and yourself if you believe pollsters matter. They might if they openly admit their methodology. Yeah right.

        I forgot if the methodology was transparent the media would not understand it anyway unless a breaking news HEADLINE was available.

        Another thought for you, respondents lie, and are sometimes known to troll blogs.

  • SHG 8
    10 June 2019 at 11:28 pm

    Observation: polls no longer mean anything.

    Prediction: the party that learns to use the Internet, particularly the datamining and targeting and segmentation power of Facebook/Instagram and Google/Youtube, most effectively will win the next election. Right now no party in NZ is doing these things particularly well.

    However the agency that is currently best in the world at doing this stuff is a) based in NZ, and b) run by a couple of former Young Nats.

  • cricklewood 9
    11 June 2019 at 12:57 pm

    I think its really going to be up in the air in 2020, the industry i'm in is a bit of a bell weather when it comes to discretionary spending and is slowing down dramatically. The design end of where our work flows from has gone very quiet so taking into account lead time its going to get a whole lot slower for us shortly. Seems fairly wide spread talking to other firms as well.

    Funny thing is no one really knows why the tap has been turned off just that its happening.

    If they economy gets rocky its anyone's guess which way the election goes…

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      Gareth’s WorldBy admin
      11 hours ago

    • How to Start a Dell Laptop: A Comprehensive Guide
      Dell laptops are renowned for their reliability, performance, and versatility. Whether you’re a student, a professional, or just someone who needs a reliable computing device, a Dell laptop can meet your needs. However, if you’re new to Dell laptops, you may be wondering how to get started. In this comprehensive ...
      Gareth’s WorldBy admin
      11 hours ago

    • Bryce Edwards: Serious populist discontent is bubbling up in New Zealand
      Two-thirds of the country think that “New Zealand’s economy is rigged to advantage the rich and powerful”. They also believe that “New Zealand needs a strong leader to take the country back from the rich and powerful”. These are just two of a handful of stunning new survey results released ...
      Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
      11 hours ago

    • How to Take a Screenshot on an Asus Laptop A Comprehensive Guide with Detailed Instructions and Illu...
      In today’s digital world, screenshots have become an indispensable tool for communication and documentation. Whether you need to capture an important email, preserve a website page, or share an error message, screenshots allow you to quickly and easily preserve digital information. If you’re an Asus laptop user, there are several ...
      Gareth’s WorldBy admin
      11 hours ago

    • How to Factory Reset Gateway Laptop A Comprehensive Guide
      A factory reset restores your Gateway laptop to its original factory settings, erasing all data, apps, and personalizations. This can be necessary to resolve software issues, remove viruses, or prepare your laptop for sale or transfer. Here’s a step-by-step guide on how to factory reset your Gateway laptop: Method 1: ...
      Gareth’s WorldBy admin
      11 hours ago

    • The Folly Of Impermanence.
      “You talking about me?”  The neoliberal denigration of the past was nowhere more unrelenting than in its depiction of the public service. The Post Office and the Railways were held up as being both irremediably inefficient and scandalously over-manned. Playwright Roger Hall’s “Glide Time” caricatures were presented as accurate depictions of ...
      Bowalley Road
      13 hours ago

    • A crisis of ambition
      Roger Partridge  writes – When the Coalition Government took office last October, it inherited a country on a precipice. With persistent inflation, decades of insipid productivity growth and crises in healthcare, education, housing and law and order, it is no exaggeration to suggest New Zealand’s first-world status was ...
      Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
      14 hours ago

    • Have 308 people in the Education Ministry’s Curriculum Development Team spent over $100m on a 60-p...
      Rob MacCulloch writes – In 2022, the Curriculum Centre at the Ministry of Education employed 308 staff, according to an Official Information Request. Earlier this week it was announced 202 of those staff were being cut. When you look up “The New Zealand Curriculum” on the Ministry of ...
      Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
      14 hours ago

    • 'This bill is dangerous for the environment and our democracy'
      Chris Bishop’s bill has stirred up a hornets nest of opposition. Photo: Lynn Grieveson for The KākāTL;DR: The six things that stood out to me in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate from the last day included:A crescendo of opposition to the Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill is ...
      The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
      14 hours ago

    • The Bank of our Tamariki and Mokopuna.
      Monday left me brokenTuesday, I was through with hopingWednesday, my empty arms were openThursday, waiting for love, waiting for loveThe end of another week that left many of us asking WTF? What on earth has NZ gotten itself into and how on earth could people have voluntarily signed up for ...
      Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
      16 hours ago

    • The worth of it all
      Hello! Here comes the Saturday edition of More Than A Feilding, catching you up on the past week’s editions.State of humanity, 20242024, it feels, keeps presenting us with ever more challenges, ever more dismay.Do you give up yet? It seems to ask.No? How about this? Or this?How about this?Full story Share ...
      More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
      19 hours ago

    • What is the Hardest Sport in the World?
      Determining the hardest sport in the world is a subjective matter, as the difficulty level can vary depending on individual abilities, physical attributes, and experience. However, based on various factors including physical demands, technical skills, mental fortitude, and overall accomplishment, here is an exploration of some of the most challenging ...
      Gareth’s WorldBy admin
      21 hours ago

    • What is the Most Expensive Sport?
      The allure of sport transcends age, culture, and geographical boundaries. It captivates hearts, ignites passions, and provides unparalleled entertainment. Behind the spectacle, however, lies a fascinating world of financial investment and expenditure. Among the vast array of competitive pursuits, one question looms large: which sport carries the hefty title of ...
      Gareth’s WorldBy admin
      21 hours ago

    • Pickleball On the Cusp of Olympic Glory
      Introduction Pickleball, a rapidly growing paddle sport, has captured the hearts and imaginations of millions around the world. Its blend of tennis, badminton, and table tennis elements has made it a favorite among players of all ages and skill levels. As the sport’s popularity continues to surge, the question on ...
      Gareth’s WorldBy admin
      21 hours ago

    • The Origin and Evolution of Soccer Unveiling the Genius Behind the World’s Most Popular Sport
      Abstract: Soccer, the global phenomenon captivating millions worldwide, has a rich history that spans centuries. Its origins trace back to ancient civilizations, but the modern version we know and love emerged through a complex interplay of cultural influences and innovations. This article delves into the fascinating journey of soccer’s evolution, ...
      Gareth’s WorldBy admin
      21 hours ago

    • How Much to Tint Car Windows A Comprehensive Guide
      Tinting car windows offers numerous benefits, including enhanced privacy, reduced glare, UV protection, and a more stylish look for your vehicle. However, the cost of window tinting can vary significantly depending on several factors. This article provides a comprehensive guide to help you understand how much you can expect to ...
      Gareth’s WorldBy admin
      21 hours ago

    • Why Does My Car Smell Like Gas? A Comprehensive Guide to Diagnosing and Fixing the Issue
      The pungent smell of gasoline in your car can be an alarming and potentially dangerous problem. Not only is the odor unpleasant, but it can also indicate a serious issue with your vehicle’s fuel system. In this article, we will explore the various reasons why your car may smell like ...
      Gareth’s WorldBy admin
      21 hours ago

    • How to Remove Tree Sap from Car A Comprehensive Guide
      Tree sap can be a sticky, unsightly mess on your car’s exterior. It can be difficult to remove, but with the right techniques and products, you can restore your car to its former glory. Understanding Tree Sap Tree sap is a thick, viscous liquid produced by trees to seal wounds ...
      Gareth’s WorldBy admin
      21 hours ago

    • How Much Paint Do You Need to Paint a Car?
      The amount of paint needed to paint a car depends on a number of factors, including the size of the car, the number of coats you plan to apply, and the type of paint you are using. In general, you will need between 1 and 2 gallons of paint for ...
      Gareth’s WorldBy admin
      21 hours ago

    • Can You Jump a Car in the Rain? Safety Precautions and Essential Steps
      Jump-starting a car is a common task that can be performed even in adverse weather conditions like rain. However, safety precautions and proper techniques are crucial to avoid potential hazards. This comprehensive guide will provide detailed instructions on how to safely jump a car in the rain, ensuring both your ...
      Gareth’s WorldBy admin
      21 hours ago

    • Can taxpayers be confident PIJF cash was spent wisely?
      Graham Adams writes about the $55m media fund — When Patrick Gower was asked by Mike Hosking last week what he would say to the many Newstalk ZB callers who allege the Labour government bribed media with $55 million of taxpayers’ money via the Public Interest Journalism Fund — and ...
      Point of OrderBy gadams1000
      1 day ago

    • EGU2024 – An intense week of joining sessions virtually
      Note: this blog post has been put together over the course of the week I followed the happenings at the conference virtually. Should recordings of the Great Debates and possibly Union Symposia mentioned below, be released sometime after the conference ends, I'll include links to the ones I participated in. ...
      Skeptical Science
      1 day ago

    • Submission on “Fast Track Approvals Bill”
      The following was my submission made on the “Fast Track Approvals Bill”. This potential law will give three Ministers unchecked powers, un-paralled since the days of Robert Muldoon’s “Think Big” projects.The submission is written a bit tongue-in-cheek. But it’s irreverent because the FTAB is in itself not worthy of respect. ...
      Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
      1 day ago

    • The Case for a Universal Family Benefit
      One Could Reduce Child Poverty At No Fiscal CostFollowing the Richardson/Shipley 1990 ‘redesign of the welfare state’ – which eliminated the universal Family Benefit and doubled the rate of child poverty – various income supplements for families have been added, the best known being ‘Working for Families’, introduced in 2005. ...
      PunditBy Brian Easton
      1 day ago

    • A who’s who of New Zealand’s dodgiest companies
      Submissions on National's corrupt Muldoonist fast-track law are due today (have you submitted?), and just hours before they close, Infrastructure Minister Chris Bishop has been forced to release the list of companies he invited to apply. I've spent the last hour going through it in an epic thread of bleats, ...
      No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
      1 day ago

    • On Lee’s watch, Economic Development seems to be stuck on scoring points from promoting sporting e...
      Buzz from the Beehive A few days ago, Point of Order suggested the media must be musing “on why Melissa is mute”. Our article reported that people working in the beleaguered media industry have cause to yearn for a minister as busy as Melissa Lee’s ministerial colleagues and we drew ...
      Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
      1 day ago

    • New Zealand has never been closed for business
      1. What was The Curse of Jim Bolger?a. Winston Peters b. Soon after shaking his hand, world leaders would mysteriously lose office or shuffle off this mortal coilc. Could never shake off the Mother of All Budgetsd. Dandruff2. True or false? The Chairman of a Kiwi export business has asked the ...
      More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
      1 day ago

    • Stop the panic – we’ve been here before
      Jack Vowles writes – New Zealand is said to be suffering from ‘serious populist discontent’. An IPSOS MORI survey has reported that we have an increasing preference for strong leaders, think that the economy is rigged toward the rich and powerful, and political elites are ignoring ‘hard-working people’.  ...
      Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
      2 days ago

    • Melissa Lee and the media: ending the quest
      Chris Trotter writes –  MELISSA LEE should be deprived of her ministerial warrant. Her handling – or non-handling – of the crisis engulfing the New Zealand news media has been woeful. The fate of New Zealand’s two linear television networks, a question which the Minister of Broadcasting, Communications ...
      Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
      2 days ago

    • The Hoon around the week to April 19
      TL;DR: The podcast above features co-hosts and , along with regular guests Robert Patman on Gaza and AUKUS II, and on climate change.The six things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the ...
      The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
      2 days ago

    • The ‘Humpty Dumpty’ end result of dismantling our environmental protections
      Policymakers rarely wish to make plain or visible their desire to dismantle environmental policy, least of all to the young. Photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: Here’s the top five news items of note in climate news for Aotearoa-NZ this week, and a discussion above between Bernard Hickey and The Kākā’s climate correspondent ...
      The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
      2 days ago

    • Nicola's Salad Days.
      I like to keep an eye on what’s happening in places like the UK, the US, and over the ditch with our good mates the Aussies. Let’s call them AUKUS, for want of a better collective term. More on that in a bit.It used to be, not long ago, that ...
      Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
      2 days ago

    • Study sees climate change baking in 19% lower global income by 2050
      TL;DR: The global economy will be one fifth smaller than it would have otherwise been in 2050 as a result of climate damage, according to a new study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and published in the journal Nature. (See more detail and analysis below, and ...
      The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
      2 days ago

    • Weekly Roundup 19-April-2024
      It’s Friday again. Here’s some of the things that caught our attention this week. This Week on Greater Auckland On Tuesday Matt covered at the government looking into a long tunnel for Wellington. On Wednesday we ran a post from Oscar Simms on some lessons from Texas. AT’s ...
      Greater AucklandBy Matt L
      2 days ago

    • Jack Vowles: Stop the panic – we’ve been here before
      New Zealand is said to be suffering from ‘serious populist discontent’. An IPSOS MORI survey has reported that we have an increasing preference for strong leaders, think that the economy is rigged toward the rich and powerful, and political elites are ignoring ‘hard-working people’.  The data is from February this ...
      Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
      2 days ago

    • Clearing up confusion (or trying to)
      Foreign Minister Winston Peters is understood to be planning a major speech within the next fortnight to clear up the confusion over whether or not New Zealand might join the AUKUS submarine project. So far, there have been conflicting signals from the Government. RNZ reported the Prime Minister yesterday in ...
      PolitikBy Richard Harman
      2 days ago

    • How to Retrieve Deleted Call Log iPhone Without Computer
      How to Retrieve Deleted Call Log on iPhone Without a Computer: A Step–by–Step Guide Losing your iPhone call history can be frustrating, especially when you need to find a specific number or recall an important conversation. But before you panic, know that there are ways to retrieve deleted call logs on your iPhone, even without a computer. This guide will explore various methods, ranging from simple checks to utilizing iCloud backups and third–party applications. So, let‘s dive in and recover those lost calls! 1. Check Recently Deleted Folder: Apple understands that accidental deletions happen. That‘s why they introduced the “Recently Deleted“ folder for various apps, including the Phone app. This folder acts as a safety net, storing deleted call logs for up to 30 days before permanently erasing them. Here‘s how to check it: Open the Phone app on your iPhone. Tap on the “Recents“ tab at the bottom. Scroll to the top and tap on “Edit“. Select “Show Recently Deleted“. Browse the list to find the call logs you want to recover. Tap on the desired call log and choose “Recover“ to restore it to your call history. 2. Restore from iCloud Backup: If you regularly back up your iPhone to iCloud, you might be able to retrieve your deleted call log from a previous backup. However, keep in mind that this process will restore your entire phone to the state it was in at the time of the backup, potentially erasing any data added since then. Here‘s how to restore from an iCloud backup: Go to Settings > General > Reset. Choose “Erase All Content and Settings“. Follow the on–screen instructions. Your iPhone will restart and show the initial setup screen. Choose “Restore from iCloud Backup“ during the setup process. Select the relevant backup that contains your deleted call log. Wait for the restoration process to complete. 3. Explore Third–Party Apps (with Caution): ...
      Gareth’s WorldBy admin
      2 days ago

    • How to Factory Reset iPhone without Computer: A Comprehensive Guide to Restoring your Device
      Life throws curveballs, and sometimes, those curveballs necessitate wiping your iPhone clean and starting anew. Whether you’re facing persistent software glitches, preparing to sell your device, or simply wanting a fresh start, knowing how to factory reset iPhone without a computer is a valuable skill. While using a computer with ...
      Gareth’s WorldBy admin
      2 days ago

    • How to Call Someone on a Computer: A Guide to Voice and Video Communication in the Digital Age
      Gone are the days when communication was limited to landline phones and physical proximity. Today, computers have become powerful tools for connecting with people across the globe through voice and video calls. But with a plethora of applications and methods available, how to call someone on a computer might seem ...
      Gareth’s WorldBy admin
      2 days ago

    • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #16 2024
      Open access notables Glacial isostatic adjustment reduces past and future Arctic subsea permafrost, Creel et al., Nature Communications: Sea-level rise submerges terrestrial permafrost in the Arctic, turning it into subsea permafrost. Subsea permafrost underlies ~ 1.8 million km2 of Arctic continental shelf, with thicknesses in places exceeding 700 m. Sea-level variations over glacial-interglacial cycles control ...
      Skeptical Science
      2 days ago

    • Where on a Computer is the Operating System Generally Stored? Delving into the Digital Home of your ...
      The operating system (OS) is the heart and soul of a computer, orchestrating every action and interaction between hardware and software. But have you ever wondered where on a computer is the operating system generally stored? The answer lies in the intricate dance between hardware and software components, particularly within ...
      Gareth’s WorldBy admin
      2 days ago

    • How Many Watts Does a Laptop Use? Understanding Power Consumption and Efficiency
      Laptops have become essential tools for work, entertainment, and communication, offering portability and functionality. However, with rising energy costs and growing environmental concerns, understanding a laptop’s power consumption is more important than ever. So, how many watts does a laptop use? The answer, unfortunately, isn’t straightforward. It depends on several ...
      Gareth’s WorldBy admin
      2 days ago

    • How to Screen Record on a Dell Laptop A Guide to Capturing Your Screen with Ease
      Screen recording has become an essential tool for various purposes, such as creating tutorials, capturing gameplay footage, recording online meetings, or sharing information with others. Fortunately, Dell laptops offer several built-in and external options for screen recording, catering to different needs and preferences. This guide will explore various methods on ...
      Gareth’s WorldBy admin
      2 days ago

    • How Much Does it Cost to Fix a Laptop Screen? Navigating Repair Options and Costs
      A cracked or damaged laptop screen can be a frustrating experience, impacting productivity and enjoyment. Fortunately, laptop screen repair is a common service offered by various repair shops and technicians. However, the cost of fixing a laptop screen can vary significantly depending on several factors. This article delves into the ...
      Gareth’s WorldBy admin
      2 days ago

    • How Long Do Gaming Laptops Last? Demystifying Lifespan and Maximizing Longevity
      Gaming laptops represent a significant investment for passionate gamers, offering portability and powerful performance for immersive gaming experiences. However, a common concern among potential buyers is their lifespan. Unlike desktop PCs, which allow for easier component upgrades, gaming laptops have inherent limitations due to their compact and integrated design. This ...
      Gareth’s WorldBy admin
      2 days ago

    • Climate Change: Turning the tide
      The annual inventory report of New Zealand's greenhouse gas emissions has been released, showing that gross emissions have dropped for the third year in a row, to 78.4 million tons: All-told gross emissions have decreased by over 6 million tons since the Zero Carbon Act was passed in 2019. ...
      No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
      2 days ago

    • How to Unlock Your Computer A Comprehensive Guide to Regaining Access
      Experiencing a locked computer can be frustrating, especially when you need access to your files and applications urgently. The methods to unlock your computer will vary depending on the specific situation and the type of lock you encounter. This guide will explore various scenarios and provide step-by-step instructions on how ...
      Gareth’s WorldBy admin
      2 days ago

    • Faxing from Your Computer A Modern Guide to Sending Documents Digitally
      While the world has largely transitioned to digital communication, faxing still holds relevance in certain industries and situations. Fortunately, gone are the days of bulky fax machines and dedicated phone lines. Today, you can easily send and receive faxes directly from your computer, offering a convenient and efficient way to ...
      Gareth’s WorldBy admin
      2 days ago

    • Protecting Your Home Computer A Guide to Cyber Awareness
      In our increasingly digital world, home computers have become essential tools for work, communication, entertainment, and more. However, this increased reliance on technology also exposes us to various cyber threats. Understanding these threats and taking proactive steps to protect your home computer is crucial for safeguarding your personal information, finances, ...
      Gareth’s WorldBy admin
      2 days ago

    • Server-Based Computing Powering the Modern Digital Landscape
      In the ever-evolving world of technology, server-based computing has emerged as a cornerstone of modern digital infrastructure. This article delves into the concept of server-based computing, exploring its various forms, benefits, challenges, and its impact on the way we work and interact with technology. Understanding Server-Based Computing: At its core, ...
      Gareth’s WorldBy admin
      2 days ago

    • Vroom vroom go the big red trucks
      The absolute brass neck of this guy.We want more medical doctors, not more spin doctors, Luxon was saying a couple of weeks ago, and now we’re told the guy has seven salaried adults on TikTok duty. Sorry, doing social media. The absolute brass neck of it. The irony that the ...
      More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
      2 days ago

    • Jones finds $410,000 to help the government muscle in on a spat project
      Buzz from the Beehive Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones relishes spatting and eagerly takes issue with environmentalists who criticise his enthusiasm for resource development. He relishes helping the fishing industry too. And so today, while the media are making much of the latest culling in the public service to ...
      Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
      2 days ago

    • Again, hate crimes are not necessarily terrorism.
      Having written, taught and worked for the US government on issues involving unconventional warfare and terrorism for 30-odd years, two things irritate me the most when the subject is discussed in public. The first is the Johnny-come-lately academics-turned-media commentators who … Continue reading → ...
      KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
      3 days ago

    • Despair – construction consenting edition
      Eric Crampton writes – Kainga Ora is the government’s house building agency. It’s been building a lot of social housing. Kainga Ora has its own (but independent) consenting authority, Consentium. It’s a neat idea. Rather than have to deal with building consents across each different territorial authority, Kainga Ora ...
      Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
      3 days ago

    • Coalition promises – will the Govt keep the commitment to keep Kiwis equal before the law?
      Muriel Newman writes – The Coalition Government says it is moving with speed to deliver campaign promises and reverse the damage done by Labour. One of their key commitments is to “defend the principle that New Zealanders are equal before the law.” To achieve this, they have pledged they “will not advance ...
      Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
      3 days ago

    • An impermanent public service is a guarantee of very little else but failure
      Chris Trotter writes –  The absence of anything resembling a fightback from the public servants currently losing their jobs is interesting. State-sector workers’ collective fatalism in the face of Coalition cutbacks indicates a surprisingly broad acceptance of impermanence in the workplace. Fifty years ago, lay-offs in the thousands ...
      Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
      3 days ago

    • PM’s South East Asia mission does the business
      Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has completed a successful trip to Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines, deepening relationships and capitalising on opportunities. Mr Luxon was accompanied by a business delegation and says the choice of countries represents the priority the New Zealand Government places on South East Asia, and our relationships in ...
      BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
      17 hours ago

    • $41m to support clean energy in South East Asia
      New Zealand is demonstrating its commitment to reducing global greenhouse emissions, and supporting clean energy transition in South East Asia, through a contribution of NZ$41 million (US$25 million) in climate finance to the Asian Development Bank (ADB)-led Energy Transition Mechanism (ETM). Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Climate Change Minister Simon Watts announced ...
      BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
      1 day ago

    • Minister releases Fast-track stakeholder list
      The Government is today releasing a list of organisations who received letters about the Fast-track applications process, says RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop. “Recently Ministers and agencies have received a series of OIA requests for a list of organisations to whom I wrote with information on applying to have a ...
      BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
      1 day ago

    • Judicial appointments announced
      Attorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Wellington Barrister David Jonathan Boldt as a Judge of the High Court, and the Honourable Justice Matthew Palmer as a Judge of the Court of Appeal. Justice Boldt graduated with an LLB from Victoria University of Wellington in 1990, and also holds ...
      BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
      2 days ago

    • Education Minister heads to major teaching summit in Singapore
      Education Minister Erica Stanford will lead the New Zealand delegation at the 2024 International Summit on the Teaching Profession (ISTP) held in Singapore. The delegation includes representatives from the Post Primary Teachers’ Association (PPTA) Te Wehengarua and the New Zealand Educational Institute (NZEI) Te Riu Roa.  The summit is co-hosted ...
      BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
      2 days ago

    • Value of stopbank project proven during cyclone
      A stopbank upgrade project in Tairawhiti partly funded by the Government has increased flood resilience for around 7000ha of residential and horticultural land so far, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones today attended a dawn service in Gisborne to mark the end of the first stage of the ...
      BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
      2 days ago

    • Anzac commemorations, Türkiye relationship focus of visit
      Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters will represent the Government at Anzac Day commemorations on the Gallipoli Peninsula next week and engage with senior representatives of the Turkish government in Istanbul.    “The Gallipoli campaign is a defining event in our history. It will be a privilege to share the occasion ...
      BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
      2 days ago

    • Minister to Europe for OECD meeting, Anzac Day
      Science, Innovation and Technology and Defence Minister Judith Collins will next week attend the OECD Science and Technology Ministerial conference in Paris and Anzac Day commemorations in Belgium. “Science, innovation and technology have a major role to play in rebuilding our economy and achieving better health, environmental and social outcomes ...
      BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
      2 days ago

    • Comprehensive Partnership the goal for NZ and the Philippines
      Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr.  The Prime Minister was accompanied by MP Paulo Garcia, the first Filipino to be elected to a legislature outside the Philippines. During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon and President Marcos Jr discussed opportunities to ...
      BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
      2 days ago

    • Government commits $20m to Westport flood protection
      The Government has announced that $20 million in funding will be made available to Westport to fund much needed flood protection around the town. This measure will significantly improve the resilience of the community, says Local Government Minister Simeon Brown. “The Westport community has already been allocated almost $3 million ...
      BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
      2 days ago

    • Taupō takes pole position
      The Government is proud to support the first ever Repco Supercars Championship event in Taupō as up to 70,000 motorsport fans attend the Taupō International Motorsport Park this weekend, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. “Anticipation for the ITM Taupō Super400 is huge, with tickets and accommodation selling out weeks ...
      BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
      2 days ago

    • Cost of living support for low-income homeowners
      Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced an increase to the Rates Rebate Scheme, putting money back into the pockets of low-income homeowners.  “The coalition Government is committed to bringing down the cost of living for New Zealanders. That includes targeted support for those Kiwis who are doing things tough, such ...
      BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
      3 days ago

    • Government backing mussel spat project
      The Coalition Government is investing in a project to boost survival rates of New Zealand mussels and grow the industry, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones has announced. “This project seeks to increase the resilience of our mussels and significantly boost the sector’s productivity,” Mr Jones says. “The project - ...
      BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
      3 days ago

    • Government focused on getting people into work
      Benefit figures released today underscore the importance of the Government’s plan to rebuild the economy and have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker Support, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “Benefit numbers are still significantly higher than when National was last in government, when there was about 70,000 fewer ...
      BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
      3 days ago

    • Clean energy key driver to reducing emissions
      The Government’s commitment to doubling New Zealand’s renewable energy capacity is backed by new data showing that clean energy has helped the country reach its lowest annual gross emissions since 1999, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. New Zealand’s latest Greenhouse Gas Inventory (1990-2022) published today, shows gross emissions fell ...
      BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
      3 days ago

    • Earthquake-prone buildings review brought forward
      The Government is bringing the earthquake-prone building review forward, with work to start immediately, and extending the deadline for remediations by four years, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “Our Government is focused on rebuilding the economy. A key part of our plan is to cut red tape that ...
      BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
      3 days ago

    • Thailand and NZ to agree to Strategic Partnership
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