web analytics

Pollwatch: Colmar Brunton, 16/4/18

Written By: - Date published: 4:00 pm, April 18th, 2018 - 78 comments
Categories: greens, labour, national, nz first, polls - Tags: , , ,

An arc chart of seats in the latest Colmar Brunton poll: Greens 7, Labour 53, New Zealand First 6, National 54, ACT 1.Colmar Brunton has, to much fanfare, released its latest poll. As Mickysavage noted recently while I’ve been on internet hiatus, (thanks for covering!) this result is a bit of a correction from a post-government high, with a 5% drop for Labour relative to their February poll, and a 2% improvement for NZF and 1% improvement for the Greens. (the latter being a bigger deal than you might expect, as internals between these two polls apparently had the Greens back under threshold) It is still an overwhelmingly strong endorsement of the current government, but it’s possibly also reflecting a bit of frustration that the government is not moving as fast as all of its fans would like on all of their priorities. I won’t cover the exact same ground as him, but calling this anything more than a setback for Labour is trying too hard. They’ve just lost some of the additional ground they gained post-election, probably due to overpolling in that February poll.

Statistically, it’s worth noting that the drop in this one poll, either for Labour or for government-vs-opposition on the Party Vote, is not significant enough to rule out it simply being a combination of under- or over-polling for the parties involved. While the margins of error in this poll were lower than the change for both New Zealand First and Labour, you need to add together the margins of error from both polls before checking for statistical significance, so until a second poll shows up confirming this dip, it may literally mean nothing, as per my prior disclaimers on polling. From an MMP perspective, in fact, this poll is the better of the two, as I’ll discuss below regarding threshold maths.

I’ve currently got my seat calculations for all three scenarios (expected, left-wing MoE, right-wing MoE) up on Datawrapper, which I am currently trying out instead of doing two of my three excel graphs. Its political chart is pretty great for doing seat allocations, in my opinion.

Fieldwork for this poll was conducted from the 7-11th of April, so it captures the very beginning of Marama Davidson’s co-leadership of the Greens, and also included the day before the announcement, when some people may have been assuming Julie Anne Genter could win. Make of that what you will. Also worth noting, as below, that Simon Bridges’ first ever preferred PM result was returned with this poll, and while it’s a relatively junk stat, it’s also abysmally low.

How low? Looks like someone else has handily compared for us:

(Additionally: Only three actual party leaders have polled lower than this: Bolger, English, and Little, and there is absolutely no precedent for a right-wing leader with such low preferred PM ratings)

This is with the known phenomenon that right-wing or conservative politicians enjoying a much more instant boost to their popularity among their own party than left-wing or liberal ones do. Bridges is basically a space-filler, and his own party is implicitly admitting it here, rating him even lower than Labour’s succession of Davids, or their misadventure with Little as Leader. That’s got to hurt for Simon, but I wouldn’t expect National to be sharpening their knives just yet: everyone knows that sticking with this leadership team and looking unified even if they’re not is the only way they have a shot in the 2020 election, and pushing over Bridges only makes things even worse. This is where people like me really wish someone were polling comparative approval ratings for the Leader of the Opposition and Prime Minister, so we could do some more solid analysis on whether this is simply a failure of Bridges’ name recognition, or to what extent it’s an approval gap or simply disapproval of both our most prominent political figures. (Ardern’s 37% is actually not terrible when compared to Clark’s rise in popularity under her own government- Labour PMs traditionally do better once they’ve settled into government for a year or more, so she’s still ahead of the curve there)

Microparty news tends to be the same: There is still small but significant support for the Māori Party, and next to none for ACT.

Pie chart showing probable coalition outcomes if a general election happened based on this poll: Labour-Green: 63.5%, NZF-Labour-Green: 35.3%, National-ACT: 1.2%

This also shows that perhaps NZF’s dip under threshold was part of a brief period of discontent. This poll notably does capture the new Transport GPS, which was likely a win for all three parties to some degree, but the biggest win for the Greens, and just misses the new oil exploration policy announcement, which is likely to be seen as a loss with at least some NZF voters, and at least a moderate win for the Greens and climate activists within the Labour Party, despite it actually being a very “first steps” sort of policy that doesn’t roll back any existing fossil fuel exploration, and still allows for exploration on land in Taranaki.

I’ve once again run my probability model with 2,000 elections simulated for likely coalitions within this poll’s margin of error, and the results are pictured to the right. There is also two invisible too-small-to-count single outcomes: one where there was an outright Labour Government, which likely occurred by my random number generator simultaneously spitting out that National overpolled, Labour underpolled, and both NZ First and the Greens fell under threshold, and one where Parliament was hung and either ACT, NZF, or the Greens would have had to cross the house or commit to abstaining on confidence and supply to form a government. Excel doesn’t count half-per mille results on pie charts, so those two outliers are removed from the graph automatically.

While I give the threshold results to a rough 5% rounding above, the Greens only came under threshold 1.6% of the time in this run of my model, while NZ First came in under threshold 52.9%. While it’s even probabilities to come over threshold at 5%, in reality every party that’s consistently polled at or above 5% before an election has managed to pull off coming in over in our brief MMP history, so I wouldn’t count NZF out just yet, so if we do assume NZF is getting over threshold or winning an electorate at the next election, (essentially removing all the under-threshold results for NZF) it’s roughly 60%/40% odds that they’ll be needed for the next government if the election result looks roughly like this poll. (Which it almost certainly won’t, things are always changing, but it lets us know where the electorate is sitting now)

At this time Colmar Brunton haven’t posted their detailed results, but their response rate is falling in their last poll, and I expect it will have done so again this time, or at best regained a fraction of its lost ground from February- something to keep in mind for polls outside of the election season. This does mean that these polls are more likely to represent relatively decided or motivated voters, and less likely to represent swing or demotivated voters. It’s quite possible that this will hurt National more than Labour, as swing voters tend to largely vote based on a perception of unity and competence within governments and oppositions, and right now National is looking very shambolic in those regards.

78 comments on “Pollwatch: Colmar Brunton, 16/4/18 ”

  1. Matthew Whitehead 1

    Just a note that while I will be checking this post, as I’m currently routing my internet through my phone rather than accessing TS directly, I’ll be a little less present than usual because my connection is noticably slower and I can’t sit refreshing as much as I usually do for moderation.

    Please continue behaving reasonably so I don’t have to moderate anyone. Thanks in advance. 😉

  2. patricia bremner 2

    Thank you, a great explanation of the poll. Generally they haven’t favoured the right, so explains the dearth of them.

    • Matthew Whitehead 2.1

      Actually this dearth is normal for NZ-based polling, the only thing that’s not is Australian-owned Roy Morgan’s break from polling, and they’re actually the most friendly poll to the left, so them stopping for now could well be an economic decision.

  3. Wayne 3

    Wishful thinking that National looks shambolic.

    Literally no-one is saying that. That discussion is always about the government.

    This of course is just one poll, lets see what the trend looks like.

    But as a fundamental proposition, National is holding up, which is pretty consistent since the election.

    If National remains above Labour in most polls over the next few months (which I expect it will) the issue will be whether NZF and the Greens can survive above 5%. If they do, then Labour staying in government after the 2020 election is highly probable.

    If not, well then it depends. If NZF goes under 5%, then National still has to beat a combination of Labour and the Greens. That would require National to be a good 7% ahead of Labour. But if the Greens also go under 5% (not that likely in my view) then it would almost certainly be a National government.

    Labour will have a challenge at the next election of having to campaign on increasing taxes. At least if they follow the Tax Working Group.

    Of course Jacinda and Grant might say that is not a risk they want to take, and will just campaign on existing tax settings. Fiscal drag (not changing tax thresholds even though incomes rise) pushes up taxes anyway. Labour got that benefit from1999 to 2008. Over a 9 year period, fiscal drag, even in low inflation times, had quite an effect.

    • Matthew Whitehead 3.1

      Sure it is, just like it was always about the government whenever Labour leaders were languishing in polling, lol.

      National holding at current polling is them losing, and this poll would have them losing even if NZF fell under threshold. You shouldn’t be happy that they’re staying still. As I explained in the post, it’s a less-than-5% proposition that the Greens would end up under threshold based on this poll alone.

      Increasing taxes to spend more on public services is generally more popular with the electorate than tax cuts. *shrug* (This was polled when the election was made about tax, as fucking usual, during Cunliffe’s tilt at dethroning Key. Polling showed that the electorate liked Cunliffe’s policies on spending more on public services and implementing a Capital Gains Tax, but still wanted to vote for National for non-policy reasons)

      • Wayne 3.1.1

        Yes, National cannot beat a Labour/Green coalition unless they poll 7% ahead of them, which I explicitly stated.

        As for the tax debate. It won’t be tax increases versus tax reductions. I can’t see National campaigning on reducing taxes. Instead it will be Labour campaigning to increase taxes and National saying no change. That is quite a different contest to “Tax reductions versus tax increases”.

        In a sense it is a reverse of 2017 where National had tax reductions and Labour had no tax changes. Effectively Labour won that debate, but only after Jacinda ruled out tax increases for the period 2017 to 2020.

        So it will be a “brave” move to campaign on tax increases.

        • Matthew Whitehead

          It’s not a reverse. It’s the same exact thing, the age old debate: National wants to run a fiscal strategy so tight it’s suffocating, Labour wants at least room to breathe, while the other more sensible voices saying we should actually right-size our government to something a little larger than either are willing to, because we can effectively afford it regardless, are excluded from the room. Kiwis want proper service provision and are willing to pay for it, so long as the tax load is fairly distributed. (It’s not right now, it’s all on direct income, next to none on capital income, and those taxes that do hit it are largely avoidable)

          • Baba Yaga

            The current tax load distribution may not be perfect, but I’m yet to see an alternative prescription that would be economically beneficial and electorally palatable. Taxing capital is tantamount to taxing investment, and that is counter productive when we also want to attract investment for jobs and growth. NZ has achieved a very high standard of living considering our position in the world, and that is in no small part to the gradual lowering of income taxes, and the benefits associated with a wide reaching consumption tax (GST). Long may that continue.

            • UncookedSelachimorpha

              ” Taxing capital is tantamount to taxing investment, and that is counter productive when we also want to attract investment for jobs and growth. NZ has achieved a very high standard of living considering our position in the world, and that is in no small part to the gradual lowering of income taxes, and the benefits associated with a wide reaching consumption tax (GST). Long may that continue.”

              In other words, reduce the tax burden on the wealthy, and let it lie on the less well off. And cut public services, which the less well off rely on the most.

              Brighter Future!

              • Baba Yaga

                “In other words, reduce the tax burden on the wealthy, and let it lie on the less well off.”
                Well that’s presumptuous. Anyone who owns a home has capital, but not all are wealthy, at least by NZ standards.

                “And cut public services, which the less well off rely on the most.”
                Really? The less well off rely more than the more well off for roads, rubbish collections, emergency services? You’re just a little mis-informed.

            • Stuart Munro

              “we also want to attract investment for jobs and growth”

              That “we” ain’t us paleface – we’ve heard the lie about foreign investment too often – all it does is inflate our property market.

          • Wayne


            Your point is a bit obtuse to put it mildly because campaigning not to increase taxes is quite different to campaigning to reduce them.

            More to the point, Labour is currently governing on the existing tax settings and will do so for the next 2 and half years.

            If Labour is going to argue, both now and in 2020, that this is a “fiscal strategy so tight it is suffocating” I guess they can. But they are the ones who chose not to increases taxes 2017 to 2020, presumably for electoral advantage.

            Obviously Labour can campaign in the next election to increase taxes, just as National can campaign not to increases taxes.

            I reckon that will be a tough call for Labour because they will be basically saying they made a mistake in 2017 not to increase taxes, even though they did so to reassure middle voters.

            That is why I doubt whether the PM will want to campaign in 2020 to increase taxes. Not unless she is very confident of her electoral position. She might see fiscal drag as doing enough of a job.

            The last government that campaigned on introducing a new tax was Labour in 1990, campaigning to introduce CGT. They lost the election. Labour did campaign in 1999 to increase the top rate to 39%, but that was when the skids were already under the Shipley government. Harder to do when you already the government.

            In any event any tax economist will tell you capital gains taxes don’t actually raise very much, certainly not compared to income tax and GST.

    • In Vino 3.2

      “Literally no one is saying that.” Try to be literate, Wayne, please. Matthew has already said it.

      • SPC 3.2.1

        You are tying to find the word … and here it is …literal.

        • In Vino

          I am well aware of the word literal. It is the adjective from which ‘literally’ is derived. Wayne’s misuse of ‘literally’ is obvious. My choice of the word ‘literate’ was completely correct in view of his semi-literate misuse of ‘literally’.
          Got that? If not yet, look up the word ‘literate’.

      • tracey 3.2.2

        And someone in msm today

    • SPC 3.3

      We get it Wayne, if taxes do not go up under Labour and go down under National, then Labour government can never afford more than an endeavour to use fiscal drag to rebuild health, education and housing funding (after neglect) – should they stay in power three terms to do so.

      The Tea Party calls it starving government of capacity.

    • Tamati Tautuhi 3.4

      NZF will be 10-15% come next Election when voters realise the Natzis are stuffed for the next 6-9 years ?

      • Matthew Whitehead 3.4.1

        While I’m not yet predicting their demise, I would say predicting a return to double-digit polling is bold and optimistic for NZF’s chances.

        I expect Labour to be the first stop for departing Nats, with small diversions of rural voters to NZF, and environmentally conscious centrists to the Greens.

    • Matthew Whitehead 3.5

      BTW Wayne, Tax Cuts are about as popular as the Māori Party right now:


      From the related questions in this poll.

      For those who don’t want to follow the link, this was an open question about priorities in this year’s budget:

      30% – Health
      13% – Education
      10% – Housing
      9% – Roads and Public Transport
      6% – Poverty and Welfare
      4% – Mental Health
      2% – Policing
      1% – Environment
      1% – Tax cuts
      1% – Regional investment

      (Precise wording: “The Government will announce the new budget next month. What do you think should be the main priority for any additional government spending in the budget?”)

    • tracey 3.6

      I believe I read an msm opiner online saying Bridges has internal problems. Anyway how would you know? You constantly tell us you have nothing to do with the caucus

  4. Bewildered 4

    Michael on the stats how do you see the volatility of the col polling results to national going forward. National result seem to have very low volatility to the downside ( ie rock solid) in contrast to COL while potentially having more room to the upside based on both parties best polls over the last 2 years Simiarly 2 of the coalition parties are in margin of error territory in regard to been out of parliament altogether on these number. Is it really all rosy if we also consider oil and gas policy is also not in these numbers and that while Simon is polling low it is not in combination with party which was case with Cunliffe and co

    • Matthew Whitehead 4.1

      Who’s Michael?

      And I’m not sure exactly what you’re asking here. The post actually gives model results on ending up under threshold- the Greens are very close to being out of danger of dipping under the threshold entirely if they can stay at 6%, it’s just above 6.5% iirc where it becomes a full impossibility and a party can be statistically assumed to be above threshold with 95% confidence. (ie. the same confidence as the poll itself)

      The model only gave 1.2% chance (or 24 victories) over 2,000 simulations based on this Colmar Brunton Poll of National managing a government together with ACT. I give ACT a 95% chance to re-win Epsom in that model, and currently give the Māori Party a 0% chance of re-winning a Māori electorate, which are probably charitable assumptions to National.

      It is a requirement under current polling numbers that at least one support party fall under the 5% threshold, and one of the following, for National to win:

      • Almost all of the coalition be grossly overpolling and National underpolling.
      • The other support party also falls under threshold, and Labour doesn’t end up underpolling enough relative to gain 2 more seats than them, locking them out of govt even without MMP-style support party government.

      Historically, any scenario that has multiple contingent requirements like this simply can’t be relied on based on polling- it will only happen when it happens. This is how you talk yourself into thinking you can win when you can’t.

  5. Nic the NZer 5

    “you need to add together the margins of error from both polls before checking for statistical significance,”

    This in incorrect and missleading. You have to make a mass of pretty unjustifiable assumptions to compare two polls at different times. The statistical significance (if its accurate) just tells you that only one in twenty of the same polls at the same time will differ by more than the margin.

    • Matthew Whitehead 5.1

      Well, my point was more about when you can assume something is insignificant, and purely about margins of error. Yes, there are good reasons that you would say that it’s way more complicated than that in terms of establishing significance between just two polls. (A longer trend may be significant once you’ve had many polls say the same thing with the same overall delta, as that’s an easier judgement to make)

      • Incognito 5.1.1

        You need to square the two margins of error, sum them, and then take the square root. If this number is larger than the difference between the two poll results it means that distribution of the difference includes zero and therefore the difference is not significantly different (i.e. P>0.05).

  6. Bewildered 6

    Who is Michael indeed, sorry

    What I am getting at is accepting your stats on this poll in this moment of time the col results in future polls appears a lot more volatile to the downside than national that appears rock solid,

    • SPC 6.1

      Rock solid as to continuing to be unable to govern alone (since MMP 1996) , and left with only 1 seat ACT (of former coalition partners) for support in getting a majority of parliamentary seats.

      As for National needing both NZF and Greens to go under 5% to win, this has never happened (NZF failed twice but only in extreme circumstances, break up of a caucus and sustained media coverage over undeclared party donations).

      • veutoviper 6.1.1

        Twice? Definitely in 2008 but what/when was the other occasion?

      • Bewildered 6.1.2

        I am not discussing what I want or hope simply a view on the stats are not all positive for labour Labour’s number appear implicitly a lot more volatile on the downside going forward, I think their measure of volatility been the standard deviation around their average poll result is a lot higher and skewed to the left and down side Here (this is opinion only ) I feel there is a lot more that can go wrong for the col than that for national re future polls and that labour to a degree has peaked on near term historical numbers where national where at 58pc not so long ago I also ( again opinion) feel there are votes national can steal from labour and nzf, However I don’t see this going the other way with national natural vote pretty much at the 44pc, hence rock solid view COL risk is also amplified by existential risk of nzf and greens, oil gas and irrigation policy is not in these numbers? likewise nzf is not a given for coalition this term, let alone the next

        • SPC

          History may mislead you on the range of the Labour (in government) vote. A better reference would be the post Alliance, 2002-2008, period.

          The Labour Party faced two rivals for the opposition vote (NZF and Greens who were quite high in 2011 and 2014).

          NZF has demonstrated the capacity to last a three year term in coalition (with Labour), and no waka jumping would veto Naitonal’s penchant for poaching)

          Peters clearly understands the role United played in 2002, so while NZF will run as an independent party it will be to negotiate from a position of strength. So no one will know, but …

  7. Bewildered 7

    Agree we don’t really know trying to predict future on past, Recent History has shown this is getting less useful as a predictor , things seem to change more quickly now with increased complexity on many fronts . It may only be gut feel but I feel there is more risk around col vote than national, I guess time will tell

  8. Tamati Tautuhi 8

    NZF will be 10-15% come next Election when voters realise the Natzis are stuffed for the next 6-9 years ?

    • Bewildered 8.1

      Wishful thinking , my gut feel probably gone already on oil and gas and irrigation policy and all bluster on immigration and moari issues ( Thier go to constituency ). But you never know, saying that going from 6 to below 5 is highly more likely than. 6 to 15 time will tell Note above is not comment on policy simply my opion of winstons constituencies view of such

      • Matthew Whitehead 8.1.1

        Well, indications are that their base liked the transport announcement, (which was their only real win since last poll IIRC?) and there is a real possibility that NZF’s spinning that they are all that protected existing exploration rights might actually sell in the regions. Lets wait and see, eh?

  9. Baba Yaga 9

    “right now National is looking very shambolic in those regards.”

    Did you mean to write ‘Labour’ where you wrote ‘National’? Or have you not heard of Clare Curran, Willie Jackson, Kelvin Davis or Phil Twyford? And that’s not including the non-Labour government members who look like amateurs. So far the media are being relatively gentle on the government (eg they have not dwelt on the conflicts of interest now being exposed in the PM’s own staffing), but if the government keeps up the level of dishonesty and incompetence that has characterised it’s tenure so far, the media will smell blood.

    • Matthew Whitehead 9.1

      1) I was talking about party unification, not qualifications of ministers, but that is a valid change of topic ofc. There is little indication of enthusiastic support for Bridges, so I stand by that comment, regardless of protestations to the contrary.

      2) Yes, I am aware of those ministers. I’ve openly called for Curran’s firing already, and am not personally impressed with Jackson, but have not followed him closely enough to be comfortable making a judgement yet. I’ll get to it. Davis actually has the right perspective you’d want from a corrections minister, finally, and is grappling with a very undefined and difficult portfolio in Crown-Māori relations, so I have a lot of time for him despite his having difficulties as a deputy leader, and I actually think Twyford is doing a really good job, at least within the policy parameters provided by the Labour Party, although I accept he will annoy National supporters because, well, he’s winning IMO. I agree in the long run weakness of ministers can be an issue, at least for Labour governments. Didn’t seem to hurt Bill English or John Key any though, with numerous scandals being brushed aside with “don’t know, don’t care, hey we’re still polling well!”

      • Babayaga 9.1.1

        So your saying National is shambokic because you perceive insufficient enthusiasm for Bridges? A bit of a stretch??

    • Michelle 9.2

      key was an amateur for many years and he still doesn’t know how to speak properly nek minute he mastered the art of bullshitting and in was in the house for 9 yrs promising to deliver us our brighter future this included but was not limited to mouldy hospitals for the poor and working class

      • Babayaga 9.2.1

        Key was PM for 9 years for the same reason Clark was…competence. Ardern is a lightweight by comparison.

  10. The Chairman 10

    I must say, I’m surprised the Green’s support increased.

    The feedback I’m receiving runs more inline with the internals you mentioned (that had the Greens under the threshold).

    A lot of Green supporters were/are disappointed with the oil exploration announcement, believing it didn’t go far enough. And many were/are also disappointed the transport announcement added to the fiscal burden of the poor.

    Gifting questions away also ruffled many feathers.

    Marama Davidson’s co-leadership win was widely supported.

    • Incognito 10.1

      The feedback I’m receiving …

      A lot of Green supporters were/are disappointed …

      And many were/are also disappointed …

      … ruffled many feathers.

      … was widely supported.

      Personal hear-say – did your hear it in the pub? – and so-called anecdotal evidence with unsubstantiated numbers versus a legitimate poll result. Enough said.

      • The Chairman 10.1.1

        Anecdotal evidence? Indeed. However, it is backed by Marama Davidson’s overwhelming co-leadership win and the Green’s internal polls.

    • solkta 10.2

      Feedback within your head is just feedback within your head.

      • The Chairman 10.2.1

        Unfortunately for the Greens, it’s not just feedback from within my own head. As their own polling indicates. And they are free to ignore that at the risk of their own peril.

        • Incognito

          Ahah, you have seen their internal polling; why didn’t you say so?

          Anecdotal evidence and personal bias make for interesting companions.

          • The Chairman

            “Ahah, you have seen their internal polling; why didn’t you say so?”

            It was in reference to this (quoted below) in the thread header above.

            “A 2% improvement for NZF and 1% improvement for the Greens. (the latter being a bigger deal than you might expect, as internals between these two polls apparently had the Greens back under threshold).”

            • Incognito

              So, have you or have you not seen the internal polling by the Greens? The word “apparently” puts the question into doubt.

              • The Chairman

                No. As I told you above, I was referring to what was said in the thread header.

                Therefore, if you want further clarity, best you direct your question to Matthew.

                • Incognito

                  Thanks for answering but like you cannot talk on behalf of the many Greens Matthew Whitehead cannot (and should not) answer on your behalf.

                  Anyway, I don’t have any further questions to you right now 😉

                  • The Chairman

                    “Matthew Whitehead cannot (and should not) answer on your behalf”

                    In no way did I imply he should.

                    You had doubts due to the use of the word “apparently”, hence I suggested you ask Matthew if you wanted further clarity.

                    • Incognito

                      No, I had doubts about you having actual & real facts, not just anecdotal evidence based on hear-say. And I established that you had not and still have not. Thus, I agree with solkta @ 10.2 about your confirmation bias being on show (again).

                    • The Chairman

                      You stated: “’apparently’ puts the question into doubt.”

                      Which is why I suggested you ask Matthew.

                      As for your doubts about me having actual & real facts, I’ve always conceded the feedback was anecdotal evidence. Therefore, you established nothing. However, it is backed by Marama Davidson’s overwhelming co-leadership win and the Green’s internal polls, apparently.

                      Additionally, the feedback I’ve had predicted the Greens decline in the previous Colmar Brunton Poll and Newshub-Reid Research Poll.

                      And what exactly do you think this bias you are accusing me of having is? I voted Green.

                  • The Chairman

                    “You cannot talk on behalf of the many Greens”

                    I was relaying the feedback a good number of Green supporters have expressed, I wasn’t speaking on their behalf.

                    • Incognito

                      I agree, you only speak on your own behalf with your interpretation of their feedback, which we cannot verify in any way.

                      You have conceded nothing and just keep going around chasing your own tail. I don’t need Matthew to confirm this for me because it is literally on show in your comments.

                      You seem to have your fingers firmly stuck in your ears and the only pulse you’re feeling or think you’re ‘measuring’ is that of your own making.

                      What has your voting preference got to do with your bias? Nothing and everything, apparently.

                      I’m getting tired and bored of this and I hope next time you’ll present some hard facts & figures and not some arm-waving mimed biased Wayang.

                  • The Chairman

                    If you wish to establish how close my finger is to the pulse, you could always try clarifying with Matthew re the Greens internal polling.

                  • The Chairman

                    As I predicted (on here) the Greens decline in the previous Colmar Brunton Poll and Newshub-Reid Research Poll, the feedback and my interpretation of it has been verified.

                    And apparently, verified again, by the Greens internals.

                    I’ve always conceded the feedback was anecdotal evidence. Therefore, your claim I conceded nothing is kaka.

                    I’m not running around chasing my own tail, merely correcting you rubbish.

                    I voted Green, hence I’m not bias against them.

  11. lurgee 11

    While Bridges is going to struggle to make an impact, with a shiny new government installed, I wouldn’t be trying to write him off just yet. The problem for Shearer, Cunliffe and Little was that they failed to make an impression against an incumbent government, and didn’t change.

    I am more worried that Ardern is only getting 37% support as preferred PM. In 2016, it was a hock when Key polled that low, after about a million years in power.


    • Tamati Tautuhi 11.1

      They loved JohnKey the beer swilling man next door best m8’s with Ritchie McCaw.

      • lurgee 11.1.1

        Yeah, that’s kinda my point. Ardern is PM. Usually that means a boost – even people who don’t instinctively support the PM’s party will often give them support in preferred PM. But Ardern – in spite of being quite lovely and pregnant and actually shown herself to be actually really quite good at representing New Zealand and being PM – is stuck on 37%.

        Inpsite of spending acres of pixels on proclaiming how badly Bridges (I accidentally wrote Key there – sorry, Simon!) and National are doing, skirted around this rather worrying point. I think it needs to be acknowledged. Though – as I recall the endless claims that David Cunliffe was “Doing really well” – I doubt we’ll get it.

        • tracey

          It doesnt mean squat against a well oiled machine with an existing strategy. Rolling out Key V2.0

          If Bridges hasnt been getting intensive training I will go hee

          When he is ready the well oiled machine will go full bore and the media will lap it up.

          Tracy Watkins says she had written Bridges off for next election but has changed her mibd. WTF

  12. Philg 12

    These polls are just job creation for the jabbering classes, and the polling companies. Not much different from the perpetual bank surveys, or Jim Mora’s ‘ An overseas survey says… ‘ I switch off and wonder how many others do.

  13. tracey 13

    No offence but I hate that polls get so much oxygen. Like clicking on Hosking. You encourage it. I reckon more kiwis can tell you a poll result than can tell you what is happening at Middlemore, Chch hospital… Dunedin hospital, teacher shortages, midwife shortages, nurses appalling conditions etc etc

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Major milestones for Māori COVID-19 vaccine rollout as new campaign launches
    Whānau Ora and Associate Health (Māori Health) Minister Peeni Henare acknowledges two major milestones in the rollout of the COVID-19 vaccination programme for Māori. “I am very pleased to announce more than 50 percent of eligible Māori have received their first dose and 25 per cent are now fully vaccinated,” ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    23 hours ago
  • Government funding to fight infectious diseases
    $36 million for research into Covid-19 and other infectious diseases The investment will improve our readiness for future pandemics Research will focus on prevention, control, and management of infectious diseases The Government’s investing in a new Infectious Diseases Research Platform to boost Aotearoa New Zealand’s Covid-19 response and preparedness for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    23 hours ago
  • Quarantine-free travel with Australia to remain suspended for a further 8 weeks
    Suspension to be reviewed again mid to late November Decision brought forward to enable access from Australia to first tranche of around 3000 rooms in MIQ Air New Zealand working at pace to put on more flights from Australia from October    The suspension of quarantine-free travel (QFT) with Australia has ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Extra support for Ethnic Communities to share vaccination information
    Extra support is being made available to Ethnic Communities to help them share COVID-19 vaccination information within their communities, Minister for Diversity, Inclusion and Ethnic Communities Priyanca Radhakrishnan said. “We know we need to get every eligible person in New Zealand vaccinated. A fund being launched today will allow for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • School holidays remain unchanged for Auckland region
    School holidays in Auckland will continue to be held at the same time as the rest of the country, starting from Saturday, 2 October, Education Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “I’ve carefully considered advice on the implications of shifting the dates and concluded that on balance, maintaining the status quo ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government continues crackdown on gangs and organised crime
    Operation Tauwhiro extended until March 2022 Since it was launched in February, Operation Tauwhiro has resulted in:   987 firearms seized $4.99 million in cash seized 865 people charged with a firearms-related offence Gangs and organised crime groups will continue to be relentlessly targeted with the extension of Police’s successful ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Speech to Body Positive 'HIV Treatments Update Seminar 2021'
    E ngā mana E ngā reo E ngā iwi Tēnā koutou katoa Ka huri ki ngā mana whenua o te rohe nei. Tēnā koutou. He mihi hoki ki a tatou kua tau mai nei I raro I te kaupapa o te rā. Nō reira tēnā koutou katoa Acknowledgements It’s a ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • NZ economy’s strong momentum will support rebound from Delta outbreak; COVID fund replenished
    The economy showed strong momentum in the period leading up to the recent Delta COVID-19 outbreak, which bodes well for a solid economic rebound, Grant Robertson said. GDP rose 2.8 percent in the June quarter, following on from a 1.4 percent increase in the previous March quarter. This was a ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Projects create benefits into the future
    Making a well-known lake swimmable and helping to halt the decline of the endangered hoiho/yellow-eyed penguins are among a suite of new projects being supported by the Government’s Jobs for Nature programme across the southern South Island, Conservation Minister Kiri Allan says. “It’s no secret that many of our most ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Opening statement for Whāriki Indigenous Small Business Roundtable
      Kei ngā tōpito e wha o te āo e rere ana te mihi maioha ki a koutou nō tawhiti, nō tata mai e tāpiri ana ki tēnei taumata kōrero mo te ao hokohoko arā mā ngā pākihi mo ngā iwi taketake Tēnā koutou, tēnā koutou katoa – Pai Mārire.  ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • New members appointed to Kāpuia
    The Government is adding four additional members to Kāpuia, the Ministerial Advisory Group on the Government’s Response to the Royal Commission of Inquiry into the terrorist attack on Christchurch mosques. “I’m looking forward to having Pamela MacNeill, Huia Bramley, Melani Anae and Katherine Dedo  join Kāpuia and contribute to this group’s ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Timeline confirmed for Emissions Reductions Plan
    Cabinet has agreed to begin consulting on the Emissions Reduction Plan in early October and require that the final plan be released by the end of May next year in line with the 2022 Budget, the Minister of Climate Change, James Shaw confirmed today. “Cabinet’s decision allows organisations and communities ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Pay parity pathway for early learning teachers confirmed
    Pay parity conditions and higher funding rates for education and care services will come into force on 1 January, 2022, Minister of Education Chris Hipkins confirmed today. The Government signalled this work in Budget 2021. “From 1 January, 2022, centres opting into the scheme will receive government funding and be ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Speech to the New Zealand Nurses Organisation Conference 2021
    Kia Ora tatau katoa.   Ka tuku mihi ki nga nēhi, He pou Hauora o Aotearoa, E ora ai tatou.   Whakatau mai  I runga i te kaupapa o te ra Te NZNO conference.   Tena koutou tena koutou Tena tatou katoa   Good morning, and thank you inviting me ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government investment in farmer-led catchment groups sweeps past 150 mark
    171 catchment groups have now been invested in by the Government 31 catchment groups in the Lower North Island are receiving new support More than 5,000 farmers are focussed on restoring freshwater within a generation through involvement in catchment groups  Government investment in on-the-ground efforts by farmers to improve land ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Fight to protect kauri on track
    The Government is pitching in to help vital work to protect nationally significant kauri forests in Auckland, Minister of Conservation Kiri Allan says. “Ensuring the survival of these iconic trees for future generations means doing everything we can to prevent the potential spread of kauri dieback disease,” Kiri Allan said. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Joint statement of Mr Bernard Monk; Hon Andrew Little, Minister Responsible for Pike River Re-entry,...
    [Note: The Parties have agreed on terms to fully and finally settle the proceeding and will jointly issue the below statement.] At the heart of this litigation are the lives of the 29 men tragically lost at the Pike River mine on 19 November 2010 and to whom we pay ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • More financial support for businesses
    Today’s decision to keep Auckland in a higher COVID Alert Level triggers a third round of the Wage Subsidy Scheme which will open for applications at 9am this Friday. “The revenue test period for this payment will be the 14th to the 27th of September. A reminder that this is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Aotearoa New Zealand provides further humanitarian support for Afghanistan
    Aotearoa New Zealand is providing a further $3 million in humanitarian assistance in Afghanistan, Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta announced today.  “There is significant humanitarian need in Afghanistan, with the crisis disproportionately affecting women and girls,” said Nanaia Mahuta. The UN has estimated that 80% of the quarter of a million ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Innovative te reo prediction tool announced in Te Wiki o Te Reo Māori
    A new Māori language prediction tool will play a key role in tracking our te reo Māori revitalisation efforts, Minister for Māori Development Willie Jackson announced today. He Ara Poutama mō te reo Māori (He Ara Poutama) can forecast the number of conversational and fluent speakers of te reo Māori ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Further Government support for people to access food and essential items
    The Government is responding to need for support in Auckland and has committed a further $10 million to help people access ongoing food and other essential items, Minister for Social Development Carmel Sepuloni announced today. This latest tranche is targeted at the Auckland region, helping providers and organisations to distribute ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Half a million Pfizer vaccines from Denmark
    The Government has secured an extra half a million doses of Pfizer COVID-19 vaccines from Denmark that will start arriving in New Zealand within days, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced today. “This is the second and larger agreement the Government has entered into to purchase additional vaccines to meet the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Inland Revenue providing essential COVID support for businesses
    Inland Revenue is seeing increased demand for Resurgence Support Payments and other assistance schemes that it administers, but is processing applications quickly, Revenue Minister David Parker said today. David Parker said the Resurgence Support Payment, the Small Business Cashflow (loan) Scheme and the Wage Subsidy are available at the same ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New Zealand marks 20th anniversary of 9/11 attacks
    New Zealand is expressing unity with all victims, families and loved ones affected by the September 11 2001 terrorist attacks, and all terrorist attacks around the world since, including in New Zealand. “Saturday marks twenty years since the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the United States, which killed nearly 3,000 people ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Speech to SPREP Environment Ministers
    Talofa Honourable Ulu of Tokelau Faipule Kelihiano Kalolo Tēnā koutou katoa and warm Pacific greetings from Aotearoa to your excellencies, ladies and gentlemen. The new science released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change on 8 August paints an alarming picture of the projected impacts of climate change on the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Additional Resurgence Support Payments to support business
    Businesses affected by higher Alert Levels will be able to apply for further Resurgence Support Payments (RSP). “The Government’s RSP was initially intended as a one-off payment to help businesses with their fixed costs, such as rent. Ministers have agreed to provide additional payments to recognise the effects of an ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • More Dawn Raids scholarships announced
    Details of the ‘Manaaki New Zealand Short Term Training Scholarships’, a goodwill gesture that follows the Government’s apology for the Dawn Raids of the 1970s, were released today by Pacific Peoples Minister Aupito William Sio. “These scholarships that are targeted to the Pacific will support the kaupapa of the Dawn Raids’ ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • One-way quarantine-free travel for RSE workers starting in October
      One-way quarantine-free travel for Recognised Seasonal Employer (RSE) workers from Samoa, Tonga and Vanuatu starts in October New requirement for RSE workers to have received their first vaccination pre-departure, undertake Day 0 and Day 5 tests, and complete a self-isolation period of seven days, pending a negative Day 5 ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Govt boosts Pacific suicide prevention support
    Applications have opened for the Pacific Suicide Prevention Community Fund as the Government acts to boost support amid the COVID delta outbreak. “We know strong and connected families and communities are the most important protective factor against suicide and this $900,000 fund will help to support this work,” Health Minister ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Govt parks the expiry of licenses, WoFs and regos
    As a result of the Delta outbreak, driver licences, Warrants of Fitness (WoFs), Certificates of Fitness (CoFs), vehicle licences (‘regos’) and licence endorsements that expired on or after 21 July 2021 will be valid until 30 November 2021, Transport Minister Michael Wood has announced today. “While this extension won’t officially ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • COVID-19 community fund to provide support for vulnerable women and girls
    Minister for Women Jan Tinetti today announced a $2 million community fund that will provide support for women and girls adversely affected by COVID-19. “We know that women, particularly those who are already vulnerable, are disproportionally affected by the kind of economic disruption caused by COVID-19,” Jan Tinetti said. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Next phase of support for Fiji’s COVID-19 response announced
    A further NZ$12 million of support for Fiji’s COVID-19 response has been announced by Foreign Minister Hon Nanaia Mahuta today. The package builds on previous tranches of assistance Aotearoa New Zealand has provided to Fiji, totalling over NZ$50 million. “Fiji remains in a very challenging position in their response to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Robotic asparagus harvester aimed at addressing industry challenges
    The Government is backing a $5 million project to develop a commercial-scale autonomous robotic asparagus harvester, Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor announced today. The Sustainable Food and Fibre Futures fund (SFF Futures) is contributing $2.6 million to the project. Project partner Robotics Plus Limited (RPL) will build on a prototype asparagus ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Additional Pfizer vaccines to arrive tomorrow
    More than a quarter of a million additional doses of the Pfizer vaccine are on their way from Spain to New Zealand, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced today. The additional doses will arrive in Auckland on Friday morning to help meet the current surge in demand for vaccination. “It’s been ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Young people to have their voices heard in Youth Parliament 2022
    The dates and details for Youth Parliament 2022 have been announced today by Minister for Youth Priyanca Radhakrishnan, and the Speaker of the House of Representatives. Youth Parliament is an opportunity for 141 young people from across Aotearoa New Zealand to experience the political process and learn how government works. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Boosting support for tertiary students affected by COVID-19
    Students facing a hard time as a result of COVID-19 restrictions will continue to be supported,” Education Minister Chris Hipkins confirmed today. The Government is putting a further $20 million into the Hardship Fund for Learners, which will help around 15,000 students to stay connected to their studies and learning. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • COVID-19: Immediate relief available for Māori and iwi organisations
    The Government has reprioritised up to $5 million to provide immediate relief to vulnerable whānau Māori and communities during the current COVID-19 outbreak Minister for Māori Development Willie Jackson announced today. The COVID-19 2021 Whānau Recovery Fund will support community-driven, local responses to gaps in access and provision of critical ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New beef genetics programme to deliver cows with smaller environmental hoof-print
    The Government is backing a genetics programme to lower the beef sector’s greenhouse gas emissions by delivering cows with a smaller environmental hoof-print, Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor announced today. Informing New Zealand Beef is a seven-year partnership with Beef + Lamb New Zealand that is expected to result in more ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Appointments to the New Zealand Qualifications Authority
    Education Minister Chris Hipkins today announced new appointments to the board of the New Zealand Qualifications Authority (NZQA). Former Associate Minister of Education, Hon Tracey Martin, has been appointed as the new Chair for NZQA, replacing the outgoing Acting and Deputy Chair Professor Neil Quigley after an 11-year tenure on ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Govt supports residential house building by allowing manufacture of building supplies
    The Government has agreed to allow some building product manufacturing to take place in Auckland during Covid lockdown to support continued residential construction activity across New Zealand. “There are supply chain issues that arise from Alert Level 4 as building products that are manufactured domestically are mostly manufactured in Auckland. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago