Pollwatch for Newshub/Reid Research poll, 18th May 2020

Written By: - Date published: 10:00 am, May 19th, 2020 - 53 comments
Categories: campaigning, greens, journalism, Judith Collins, labour, national, nz first, polls, Simon Bridges - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

(original poll at Newshub)

I’m back with a new edition of Pollwatch for those of you who like some statistical analysis with your speculation!

This was a doozy, definitely proving that UMR wasn’t off-base with the leaked results and that National is giving a disastrous performance, worthy of 2002 Bill English- in fact, literally only 0.1% better than that final 1999 election result for National. If this were the 2020 election, it would be the second-worst National result ever, and the actual worst election under MMP for the Right ever, as in 2002 ACT was at the height of its powers with a 7% result, and its 2020 “bounce” still has it under 2% and only just managing to get an actual caucus back. (It’s worth noting that national polled even worse than this in the lead-up to 2002, though, and election campaigns tend to narrow the result no matter who leads)

Unfortunately most of the graphs here are so boring they’re barely worth looking at- there’s a 100% chance of a Labour-only government if this were the election, something I’ve mentioned before that would be very dangerous in practice and that I hope voters would narrow away from in the election, either by softer Labour supporters considering the Greens, or by natural closing of the gap between parties. That said, the trend still shows that polling is quite volatile since late 2019, likely at least partially due to long periods between polls now that Roy Morgan is out of the New Zealand polling arena.

Newshub also hasn’t given their net approval numbers which actually mean something, so I won’t comment on Preferred Prime Minister polling, other than to note it is as disastrous as expected, and that Bridges and Collins are in a statistical tie for second place, so knives are clearly being sharpened, and perhaps not just by Collins.

That said, I have an entirely new addition to my overall model for you all, as I was working on something to let us know how close we are to National hitting overhang seats, so for the very first time I’ve adapted the Strong Transition Model from the UK’s Electoral Calculus site to allow me to make predictions based on the national vote for which electorates will change hands. This sort of model tends to be the best way to predict the overall number of electorate victories, (1 to ACT, 0 to NZF, 35 to National, 35 to Labour) so please take individual calls with a grain of salt, but those numbers will likely be good predictors as we get closer to election date, if the number of electorate wins becomes relevant. I’ve also corrected one National prediction to a Labour one, as to my knowledge the Greens don’t plan to reprise the very strong campaign in Nelson, so it is very likely to go to the Labour MP factoring that in, and given that nobody is calling Takanini yet, I’m predicting it will go to Labour with a result this strong, which seems fair if we assume it’s a possible bellwether seat like its demographics tentatively suggest it might be.

You’ll also note my model doesn’t predict NZF will win Northland. They’re out of parliament on these results, but they actually can win Northland with a stronger party vote result than in this poll, according to my model, as the exodus of National support might make Peters look like the most attractive option, so put a pin in that electorate race. With some actual way to predict electorates, I’ve updated my model for the assumption that ACT gets one, NZF get none, and as far as we can tell, minor parties also get none.

What this really lets us do though, is predict how many National MPs will retain or lose their seats, and it’s an absolute bloodbath. With 39 seats from the party vote, (down from 56) they get 5 (down from 15) from the list once we assign Nelson to Labour. If we assume their list based on caucus rankings for now, (a reasonable starting point, but likely to have a few adjustments) this gives their List winners as:

2 – Paula Bennett (now list-only, to act as campaign manager)
3 – Paul Goldsmith (ACT to retain Epsom)
7 – Nikki Kaye (Labour to win Auckland Central, predicted 2.8% margin)
9 – Michael Woodhouse (Labour to retain Dunedin North)
11 – Alfred Ngaro (Labour to retain Te Atatu)

Paula Bennett and Paul Goldsmith are absolute necessities to retain, but this actually suggests their list ought to diverge by caucus rankings when you look into who they’ll lose. Let’s start with unranked incumbents, who are gone regardless of election result:

Alastair Scott (retiring)
Amy Adams (retiring)
David Carter (retiring)
Maggie Barry (retiring)
Nathan Guy (retiring)
Nicky Wagner (retiring)
Sarah Dowie (retiring)

Moving on, here are those who’d need to find new employment if National can’t close the gap:

14 – Melissa Lee (Labour to retain Mt Albert)
15 – Chris Bishop (Labour to win Hutt South, predicted 5.9% margin)
17 – Anne Tolley (list-only, “to contest election as Speaker“)
20 – Nick Smith (I’m calling my model wrong here, as Labour could absolutely win this in a two-party race, and as far as I know there are no Green plans to try to win this election in 2020, which upsets how its maths works)
24 – Kanwaljit Singh Bakshi (Labour to retain Manukau East)
26 – Brett Hudson (Labour to retain Ōhāriu)
29 – Jian Yang (list-only)
30 – Parmjeet Parmar (Labour to retain Mt Roskill)
33 – Jo Hayes (Labour to retain Christchurch East)
36 – Harete Hipango (Labour to win Whanganui, predicted 4.4% margin)
38 – Denise Lee (Labour to win Maungakiekie, predicted 2.3% margin)
43 – Lawrence Yule (Labour to win Tukituki, predicted 2.3% margin)
44 – Maureen Pugh (Labour to retain West-Coast Tasman)
45 – Nicola Willis (Labour to retain Wellington Central)
47 – Agnes Loheni (list-only)
48 – Paulo Garcia (Labour to retain New Lynn)

…but with potential new blood in the following electorates:

Chris Luxon, candidate for Botany (expected to replace independent incumbent Jamie-Lee Ross)
Unannounced new National candidate for East Coast
Unannounced new National candidate for Invercargill
Tim Costley, candidate for Ōtaki
Simon Watts, candidate for North Shore
Nicola Grigg, candidate for Selwyn
Jake Bezzant, candidate for Upper Harbour

Once we factor in these losses and replacements, there’s some obvious considerations for tweaking National’s list.

A lot of their more senior talent has been shafted by the caucus reshuffle, and that’s very dangerous when your list is going to potentially be cut this close to the wire. If I were a senior National Party official, I’d be looking at bumping Tolley up to #4 or otherwise in single-digits on the list so that I didn’t get embarrassed by losing the assistant-speaker from caucus with my own hubris, and frankly I’d also consider bumping an additional woman up the list too, like Melissa Lee or Parmjeet Parmar, because if they went by caucus rankings alone, a result like this would leave them with eight women out of thirty nine MPs, and an overall very white caucus, too, which would open them up to further criticism that they aren’t even trying to look like New Zealand, and while I don’t like Melissa Lee, she sure as hell is a better pick as a list MP than Alfred Ngaro. They’ll naturally be hoping for another 3-4 list MPs minimum from the campaign, but they shouldn’t count on it- lists should both plan for the worst and offer for the best. The reshuffle has already thrown new blood high into the current caucus rankings, speaking cynically likely because they supported Bridges for leader, and the smokey room setting the list needs to counterbalance that.

On a wider view, if we look at the bloodbath to list-reliant MPs in opposition, it’s worth noting that Labour had similar issues in the 2014 election, and arguably are still recovering from them. It might make more sense for the competence of our parliament to set the size of parliament such that we have a list seat for every electorate seat, to limit the losses of senior MPs and institutional knowledge. That would, of course, give us 142 MPs this election, but that’s not completely ridiculous.

I hoped you all enjoyed the foray into the consequences of who wins and who loses- I’ll definitely come back to that later when the campaign is officially open and we have lists for National and Labour and I can tell you who might be in as well.

It’s also worth noting that as this is a statistical model, it’s likely in the election that Labour will lose a few electorates, and pick up additional ones from National, but if they’ve gained from 2017, which seems very likely right now, they’ll retain any electorate losers on the list, anyway, unless they’ve been badly demoted, so unfortunately I can’t tell you very much interesting about that until lists are released- and I’m certainly not going to go off the first draft of the Green list yet, given that voting is still in progress on that one, and it may be adjusted by the Executive afterwards if necessary.

Also, any candidates with a margin smaller than 3% are in fact very marginal calls by the model and could go either way- but it’s likely that most such upsets might be balanced out by losses of existing Labour electorates that this model can’t predict easily, or additional seats changing hands that it doesn’t accurately predict to. The idea is more to get at the right overall number of electorates for each party.

53 comments on “Pollwatch for Newshub/Reid Research poll, 18th May 2020 ”

  • Comments are now closed

  1. Anne 1
    19 May 2020 at 10:39 am

    Have a listen to Michelle Boag. Starts 5:40 min in:

    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/05/end-is-nigh-for-simon-bridges-who-may-have-just-two-weeks-left-as-leader-tova-o-brien-michelle-boag.html

    Interesting body language. Furious at the result. Does a Matthew Hooton style hate on Jacinda Ardern. But she's a seasoned political player and her predictions as to what will happen and how it will happen resemble your predictions Matthew Whitehead.

    Bridges will be go in two weeks according to Michelle. Not willing to pick the new leader.

    Edit: she describes the daily Covid 19 updates as “Cindy’s kindy”. 😡

    • Matthew Whitehead 1.1
      19 May 2020 at 10:46 am

      I'd prefer it if we never had to listen to Michelle Boag ever again, personally, but Richard Harman seems to be in agreement that a coup is poised to strike right now if the next poll doesn't turn things around:

      https://www.politik.co.nz/2020/05/19/can-bridges-survive/

      That said, it sounds like the sticking factor is that there's no clear winner for who would replace him yet, so rolling him would be gambling on a very uncertain future. I also don't think either Muller, Mitchell, or Collins has much of a chance of reversing things even if they do roll him now, but they'd of course be able to blame it on Bridges putting them in too big a hole if they really want to roll the dice. My initial prediction on his ascension that he'd last to 2020 and then get rolled after the election is looking pretty close to accurate, even if I got the exact timing wrong. We'll see on Friday, I guess. 😉

      • Anne 1.1.1
        19 May 2020 at 11:04 am

        I'd prefer it if we never had to listen to Michelle Boag ever again.

        She's so horrible she fascinates me.

        • Muttonbird 1.1.1.1
          19 May 2020 at 11:57 am

          Lol. Boag put ethnic MPs in "air quote marks". Evil person.

        • Frida 1.1.1.2
          19 May 2020 at 12:09 pm

          Me too! She's also very dumb. Over lockdown she said well this is Covid-19 there must have been 18 Covids before and we survived. Oh dear.

          • roy cartland 1.1.1.2.1
            19 May 2020 at 12:24 pm

            OMG that's brilliant! Better than a Tom Sainsbury gag. Haven't had such a laugh for ages, thanks for that!

          • RedLogix 1.1.1.2.2
            19 May 2020 at 12:29 pm

            LOL just used that gag myself. Good one yes

          • Anne 1.1.1.2.3
            19 May 2020 at 3:46 pm

            She would have thought she was being clever when she said that.

        • woodart 1.1.1.3
          19 May 2020 at 6:15 pm

          boag, played by joanna lumley (patsy). everytime I see one ,I think of the other.

      • RedLogix 1.1.2
        19 May 2020 at 12:28 pm

        Of course the similarity with Labour dumping Little for Ardern must be tempting for National hoping for a similar miracle.

        But it worked for Labour largely because Andrew Little stood down voluntarily with grace and immediate support for the new leader. And has since acquitted himself loyally. Can't see Bridges doing this.

        Plus of course National have no-one to touch Ardern. The only one I'd rate is Nikki Kaye and she's in a marginal.

        • Matthew Whitehead 1.1.2.1
          19 May 2020 at 1:00 pm

          It also worked because people loved Ardern even as deputy and she drove the party to an immediate resurgence despite a complicated and bruising campaign to that point. There is nobody in National right now who seems to have a presence that could compete with that.

          (Honestly, National has always struggled with positive campaigning, the best they’ve managed to do under MMP is to just slice away a thousand times at Clark and bleed her to death while vaguing their way through the campaign)

          • observer 1.1.2.1.1
            19 May 2020 at 3:57 pm

            Yeah, "National could do a late Ardern switch" is a false comparison.

            It's the first term. National were going for a fourth. Swing voters were open to change.

      • ianmac 1.1.3
        19 May 2020 at 3:09 pm

        "I'd prefer it if we never had to listen to Michelle Boag ever again,…"

        You do realise that since she is the best that they have as non-MP spokesman, we could presume that the basket is otherwise empty.

    • Wensleydale 1.2
      19 May 2020 at 2:02 pm

      "You have had the five million locked up in Cindy's Kindy with a daily political party broadcast with an incredibly compliant media who have been in her bubble."

      Jacinda's been holding us hostage, and the media are all apparently prostrate at the altar of Saint Jacinda the Most Holy (which is news to Tova O'Brien and her well-thumbed catalogue of dumb, accusatory questions I imagine). Boag's a hideous old buzzard who gets wheeled out whenever they want a soundbite from a slightly unhinged partisan muppet. I wish she'd go back to roosting in her dead tree in the Quagmire of Irrelevance.

      • Matthew Whitehead 1.2.1
        19 May 2020 at 2:20 pm

        I'm also amused she hit out at the press conferences the day Ardern has stopped featuring in them because the political issues aren't as pressing anymore.

    • Drowsy M. Kram 1.3
      19 May 2020 at 3:19 pm

      "Cindy's kindy" is pure envy – 'Boag bile'. Boag's rogues will be bogging themselves laugh

  2. RedBaronCV 2
    19 May 2020 at 1:32 pm

    Why did Roy Morgan stop doing the polls? Where they being paid by some one who stopped when the right lost?

    Fascinating that Michelle called Jacinda by a silly name. It always feels pretty immature to me – playground stuff – but it does show who the adults in the room are.

    • Matthew Whitehead 2.1
      19 May 2020 at 1:55 pm

      I think Roy Morgan was doing existing commercial surveys into the NZ market and added their polls on as a promotional exercise. Apparently it either stopped making economic sense as promotion, or their business in New Zealand might have dried up a bit?

      I've asked them on social media before what happened and if there is any intention to possibly return, but never got any answer.

    • Gabby 2.2
      19 May 2020 at 2:52 pm

      Bogey doesn't realise that namecalling is infantile.

  3. patricia 3
    19 May 2020 at 1:34 pm

    Thank you Mathew. Very interesting. What do you make of Luxton's low key entry to politics?

    • Matthew Whitehead 3.1
      19 May 2020 at 1:57 pm

      Didn't like him in private business, don't think much of him yet in politics, but we'll really have to give him a year or so to show his stuff before we know, I think.

      I don't buy the idea that you can parachute an outsider into the leadership any faster than that, anyway, so if Bridges is gone now or post-election, Luxon isn't a credible replacement.

  4. RedBaronCV 4
    19 May 2020 at 1:35 pm

    Also do any of these scenario's show Simon losing his seat? And are we likely to see any sort of power plays around some of the electorate seats as sitting MP's who are in marginal seats or looking at an unworkable list place try to shore up their chances? Nick Smith?

    • Matthew Whitehead 4.1
      19 May 2020 at 2:03 pm

      So all the unmentioned seats are either retained by National at this level of polling, or their retention by Labour wouldn't unseat any incumbent National list MPs.

      For clarity, National's expected retentions are:

      Bay of Plenty
      Botany
      Clutha-Southland
      Coromandel
      East Coast
      East Coast Bays
      Hamilton East
      Hamilton West
      Helensville
      Hunua
      Ilam
      Invercargill
      Kaikōura
      Nelson (if you believe my model over me 😉 )
      New Plymouth
      North Shore
      Northcote
      Northland (if NZ First doesn't gain back some ground before the election)
      Ōtaki
      Pakuranga
      Papakura
      Rangitata
      Rangitīkei
      Rodney
      Rotorua
      Selwyn
      Tāmaki
      Taranaki-King Country
      Taupō
      Tauranga
      Upper Harbour
      Waikato
      Waimakariri
      Waitaki
      Whangarei

      Again though, this model is intended to primarily tell us the number of electorates, and individual calls might be wrong or trade-off with seats I've pegged as Labour retentions.

      • gingercrush 4.1.1
        19 May 2020 at 9:59 pm

        Interesting but why do you have National retaining both Hamilton seats. I think they're likely to swing Labour's way as will Waimakariri and East Coast. Those are seats Labour held up till the momentum changing 2005 onwards. Even Invercargill and New Plymouth are possibilities.

  5. Peter 5
    19 May 2020 at 1:36 pm

    When Boag comes on the radio I turn it off. I can still remember her after an election years ago the morning after National had lost. On air with Kerre Woodham she was hoping that things would go bad in New Zealand. That would have her party back. She was in her 'born to rule' mode.

    I enjoyed watching this interview. She reminded me of a grotesque dead mako on the beach. I hope they cleaned the studio after she left.

    • Matthew Whitehead 5.1
      19 May 2020 at 2:05 pm

      switching away from Boag or switching off is correct procedure, IMO. If you have to watch her, it should be to formulate a detailed complaint to the broadcaster about why they should stop featuring her and bring on someone relevant. It's fine if they're a Nat, (all parties deserve to be on the air from time to time) but make it a newer one with some fresh ideas. And they should get themselves some Green and NZF-supporting commentators, too.

      • woodart 5.1.1
        19 May 2020 at 6:33 pm

        totally agree. time to give free air maskerading as infotainment to all the parties, or none.

  6. mary_a 6
    19 May 2020 at 1:58 pm

    Simon Bridges is a goner regardless. Could be on the cards he will lose his electorate seat in Tauranga as well, given his recent petulant, nasty behaviour. Who in their right mind would vote for him?

    Whoever leads National prior to or after the election, will be a temporary leader, keeping the seat warm for Luxon.

    • Matthew Whitehead 6.1
      19 May 2020 at 2:12 pm

      So my model expects Tauranga to be retained with a 17% margin even under this incredibly one-sided poll, which is arguably the worst for the Right since MMP became a thing. A 20-point shift in Tauranga would be a MASSIVE indictment on Bridges, and likely require a result like this when the election happens in order to be practical, and I think things are likely to be closer.

    • JanM 6.2
      19 May 2020 at 3:34 pm

      'Who in their right mind would vote for him?' A Tauranga Nat, that's who (if you can describe them as being in their right minds) especially after this poll. They'll be scared witless!

      I was at a cocktail party in parliament many years ago and Brian Talboys described being comforted by his local president saying :Don't worry, Brian, they'd vote for you if you were a dead horse, as long as you were a Nat'

      I guess the same will apply here!

      • Anne 6.2.1
        19 May 2020 at 4:06 pm

        Brian Talboys was one of the gentlemen politicians imo. They existed in both parties and funnily enough outside of parliament they were known to be personal friends.

        Those were the days before PM Muldoon, who changed the political landscape forever.

        • JanM 6.2.1.1
          19 May 2020 at 7:00 pm

          I agree – as were Doug Carter, George Gair and Les Gandar . My partner at the time was a parliamentary reporter so I saw a bit of these men.And then there was the ghastly Robert Muldoon – undergoing the process of becoming the leader of the Nats. I remember asking Doug Carter why – surely they didn't like him. He agreed but said they thought he could win for them. He was right! Doesn't say much for the average nat voter does it 🙁

  7. JeffB 7
    19 May 2020 at 2:15 pm

    Michelle is lying again… can’t get National under its bedrock 30% support?

    2002 election 20.93% would suggest otherwise.

    • Peter 7.1
      19 May 2020 at 3:35 pm

      Funny that. Michelle Boag National Party President 2001-2002.

      • Dennis Frank 7.1.1
        19 May 2020 at 8:53 pm

        In denial. Not a mere psychological reflex – people can and do subconsciously deselect memories. They get deleted. I've encountered a classic instance in one of my younger brothers, years ago, when I reminded him of something unusual that he did, and got indignant denial. Since it lasted a couple of hours when I visited him, it formed an enduring memory for me – but for him it never happened. His belief is genuine – since we get on fine no grudge can explain it.

        I suspect she has done exactly that due to it being a blot on her interior landscape when it happened.

        • Incognito 7.1.1.1
          19 May 2020 at 9:33 pm

          Memories don’t get deleted as such, they get buried (repressed) or twisted, especially unpleasant (traumatic) ones.

  8. RedBaronCV 8
    19 May 2020 at 3:22 pm

    I think the big take away from all this is having much more direct broadcasting of press conferences and even select committees so the opposition get a chance too, rather than having all this filtered through a media lens that is frequently right wing. That way we can all see what is going on. Heck I'd even like to be able to ask some questions myself in these press conferences.

    • Matthew Whitehead 8.1
      19 May 2020 at 4:15 pm

      Yeah I think actually Bridges is underestimating just how much his ERC performances hurt his brand and his party's popularity rather than enhanced it.

      • RedBaronCV 8.1.1
        19 May 2020 at 6:07 pm

        yes – I've always urged people at election time to go along to the meetings and actually have a look at the people who want their vote. Mainly because if push comes to shove with a major crisis, then no matter which party, you want somebody with a bit of ability and who has the personal values to be genuinely concerned about their community and want to do the best for their fellow citizens.

        It also has it's moments like when a loud voice behind one goes "who would vote for That!" ( Nat candidate for Ohariu)

  9. observer 9
    19 May 2020 at 3:52 pm

    Thanks Matthew, that's a really comprehensive round-up. Really detailed.

    FWIW I don't believe it will be as catastrophic for National as some on here imagine. There's some wildly premature celebrating going on. It's good to have a laugh but let's not drift into fantasy.

    The Right combined (not "National" only) is certain to get 40% plus at the election. They did even in 2002. (NZF were not allied to Labour at all, had never been at that stage). But there are fewer options than 2002 (Dunne is done) and no sign of any party breaking through from outside Parliament. So unhappy righties will have to stick with National or back ACT. Winston? It's their very last resort.

    Holding your nose and voting for a lesser evil is what voters do. Ask anybody who voted Blair after Iraq (because not Tory) or will vote Biden (because not Trump) or a hundred other examples from history.

    Expect National voters to do it too.

    • Matthew Whitehead 9.1
      19 May 2020 at 4:41 pm

      Yes, I expect Labour will lose about 7-8% by election day from their high, (if this is it…) assuming no big political events happen that shift the dynamic further like COVID-19 did. That would still put Labour solidly in a position to govern with the Greens, together with NZF if they find a way back, or alone if somehow both support parties fell under threshold.

    • woodart 9.2
      19 May 2020 at 6:41 pm

      you are still thinking fpp. dont confuse our system with ones that havent evolved.

      • observer 9.2.1
        19 May 2020 at 7:31 pm

        I don't really understand your point. RW voters will want to vote for a RW party, regardless of electoral system. Even in Newshub's catastrophic poll, the RW (minus NZF) gets a third of the vote combined. That's despite Bridges tanking, and 91% supporting the lockdown.

        MMP gives those right-leaning voters more options, but fewer now than when MMP started – a legacy of National eating their allies. So National/ACT are likely to keep them.

      • Matthew Whitehead 9.2.2
        20 May 2020 at 12:22 pm

        Nothing Observer said was typical of an FPP mindset, in my view?

        There tends to be two types of soft supporters- those that are attached to a particular ideology or combination of ideologies that might match well with a particular party, eg. conservative leftists, conservationist ring-wingers, environmentalist leftists, etc…, vs those who might be genuine swing supporters, eg. liberal leftists between Labour and the Greens, conservative centrists between National, Labour, and NZF, right-wing liberals between ACT and National, and right-wing conservatives between NZF and National. Saying that there are roughly 35% of voters who tend to vote for a roughly right-aligned or conservative-aligned party even when their performance is absolutely dire is not unreasonable- in fact 2002 tends to support that if one notes that United Future was quite conservative and right-wing.

        I should also point out that analysing electorates under MMP is, from a systemic viewpoint at least, (although not necessarily 100% in voter behaviour) functionally identical to FPP.

    • Phil 9.3
      19 May 2020 at 6:53 pm

      … unhappy righties will have to stick with National or back ACT. Winston? It's their very last resort. Holding your nose and voting for a lesser evil is what voters do.

      Depends on if there is still an 'anything to keep the greens out of government' bloc like there was in 2002 who voted Labour instead. I tend to think it's a significantly diminished chunk of the population, but who really knows?

  10. observer 10
    19 May 2020 at 7:38 pm

    Anyway, the Newshub report tonight strongly suggests Bridges is going to be rolled next Tuesday. Even allowing for media hype, it's obviously now more than just gossip.

    Wouldn't it be funny if the TVNZ poll was better for National, which they often are, and so the plotters lose their nerve …

    Save Our Simon!

    • woodart 10.1
      19 May 2020 at 7:56 pm

      your second paragraph is probably whats going to happen. drowning people clutch at any straw. and plotters often lack individual courage. since the nats dont have an obvious replacement, various different plotters have only a few backers. perhaps the nats should do the decent thing and split into two or three right wing parties.

      • Muttonbird 10.1.1
        19 May 2020 at 8:19 pm

        It shows me they are all gutless and don't believe their own abilities. How are they to convince the NZ public of their abilities if they don't believe in themselves?

        Imagine Bridges’ phone calls tonight. Starts off, “are you taping me?”

    • Anne 10.2
      19 May 2020 at 8:44 pm

      Wouldn't it be funny if the TVNZ poll was better for National.

      Likely. Colmar Brunton has a general bias towards National. Not saying it is deliberate, but something to do with the way they conduct their polls – maybe more landlines than Reid Research.

    • Matthew Whitehead 10.3
      20 May 2020 at 12:28 pm

      RNZ is now reporting that Bridges has defensively called a caucus vote on leadership, so 'shub was definitely correct about the knives being out. A coup is never a coup until it's actually attempted, ofc.

      https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/417070/power-play-it-s-all-on-as-simon-bridges-appears-to-call-challengers-bluff

      The Colmar Brunton (One News) poll has gone backwards and forwards on who out of National and Labour it tends to favour relative to the Reid Research poll. RR had Labour in a weaker position than CB before the 2017 election, and it actually got closer to getting things right. I wouldn't be so concerned on what their individual lean is so much as whether their methodology causes them to be bad predictors of the election given their timeframe. CB is, in my opinion, the less accurate of the two polls, but that has nothing to do with where it places Labour relative to National.

      I think CB would need to show National at something more like 38% or 40% to put Simon in a secure position for now. What he's probably hoping is to buy Collins off so he can keep the party stable under his leadership until the election. I think he's gone after the election regardless of what happens, quite frankly, but it might not be immediately after.

  11. millsy 11
    20 May 2020 at 1:28 am

    The voters dont trust National not to impose austerity if they win.

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    How to Retrieve Deleted Call Log on iPhone Without a Computer: A Step–by–Step Guide Losing your iPhone call history can be frustrating, especially when you need to find a specific number or recall an important conversation. But before you panic, know that there are ways to retrieve deleted call logs on your iPhone, even without a computer. This guide will explore various methods, ranging from simple checks to utilizing iCloud backups and third–party applications. So, let‘s dive in and recover those lost calls! 1. Check Recently Deleted Folder: Apple understands that accidental deletions happen. That‘s why they introduced the “Recently Deleted“ folder for various apps, including the Phone app. This folder acts as a safety net, storing deleted call logs for up to 30 days before permanently erasing them. Here‘s how to check it: Open the Phone app on your iPhone. Tap on the “Recents“ tab at the bottom. Scroll to the top and tap on “Edit“. Select “Show Recently Deleted“. Browse the list to find the call logs you want to recover. Tap on the desired call log and choose “Recover“ to restore it to your call history. 2. Restore from iCloud Backup: If you regularly back up your iPhone to iCloud, you might be able to retrieve your deleted call log from a previous backup. However, keep in mind that this process will restore your entire phone to the state it was in at the time of the backup, potentially erasing any data added since then. Here‘s how to restore from an iCloud backup: Go to Settings > General > Reset. Choose “Erase All Content and Settings“. Follow the on–screen instructions. Your iPhone will restart and show the initial setup screen. Choose “Restore from iCloud Backup“ during the setup process. Select the relevant backup that contains your deleted call log. Wait for the restoration process to complete. 3. Explore Third–Party Apps (with Caution): ...
    Gareth’s WorldBy admin
    3 hours ago

  • How to Factory Reset iPhone without Computer: A Comprehensive Guide to Restoring your Device
    Life throws curveballs, and sometimes, those curveballs necessitate wiping your iPhone clean and starting anew. Whether you’re facing persistent software glitches, preparing to sell your device, or simply wanting a fresh start, knowing how to factory reset iPhone without a computer is a valuable skill. While using a computer with ...
    Gareth’s WorldBy admin
    10 hours ago

  • How to Call Someone on a Computer: A Guide to Voice and Video Communication in the Digital Age
    Gone are the days when communication was limited to landline phones and physical proximity. Today, computers have become powerful tools for connecting with people across the globe through voice and video calls. But with a plethora of applications and methods available, how to call someone on a computer might seem ...
    Gareth’s WorldBy admin
    11 hours ago

  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #16 2024
    Open access notables Glacial isostatic adjustment reduces past and future Arctic subsea permafrost, Creel et al., Nature Communications: Sea-level rise submerges terrestrial permafrost in the Arctic, turning it into subsea permafrost. Subsea permafrost underlies ~ 1.8 million km2 of Arctic continental shelf, with thicknesses in places exceeding 700 m. Sea-level variations over glacial-interglacial cycles control ...
    Skeptical Science
    11 hours ago

  • Where on a Computer is the Operating System Generally Stored? Delving into the Digital Home of your ...
    The operating system (OS) is the heart and soul of a computer, orchestrating every action and interaction between hardware and software. But have you ever wondered where on a computer is the operating system generally stored? The answer lies in the intricate dance between hardware and software components, particularly within ...
    Gareth’s WorldBy admin
    11 hours ago

  • How Many Watts Does a Laptop Use? Understanding Power Consumption and Efficiency
    Laptops have become essential tools for work, entertainment, and communication, offering portability and functionality. However, with rising energy costs and growing environmental concerns, understanding a laptop’s power consumption is more important than ever. So, how many watts does a laptop use? The answer, unfortunately, isn’t straightforward. It depends on several ...
    Gareth’s WorldBy admin
    11 hours ago

  • How to Screen Record on a Dell Laptop A Guide to Capturing Your Screen with Ease
    Screen recording has become an essential tool for various purposes, such as creating tutorials, capturing gameplay footage, recording online meetings, or sharing information with others. Fortunately, Dell laptops offer several built-in and external options for screen recording, catering to different needs and preferences. This guide will explore various methods on ...
    Gareth’s WorldBy admin
    11 hours ago

  • How Much Does it Cost to Fix a Laptop Screen? Navigating Repair Options and Costs
    A cracked or damaged laptop screen can be a frustrating experience, impacting productivity and enjoyment. Fortunately, laptop screen repair is a common service offered by various repair shops and technicians. However, the cost of fixing a laptop screen can vary significantly depending on several factors. This article delves into the ...
    Gareth’s WorldBy admin
    11 hours ago

  • How Long Do Gaming Laptops Last? Demystifying Lifespan and Maximizing Longevity
    Gaming laptops represent a significant investment for passionate gamers, offering portability and powerful performance for immersive gaming experiences. However, a common concern among potential buyers is their lifespan. Unlike desktop PCs, which allow for easier component upgrades, gaming laptops have inherent limitations due to their compact and integrated design. This ...
    Gareth’s WorldBy admin
    11 hours ago

  • Climate Change: Turning the tide
    The annual inventory report of New Zealand's greenhouse gas emissions has been released, showing that gross emissions have dropped for the third year in a row, to 78.4 million tons: All-told gross emissions have decreased by over 6 million tons since the Zero Carbon Act was passed in 2019. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    12 hours ago

  • How to Unlock Your Computer A Comprehensive Guide to Regaining Access
    Experiencing a locked computer can be frustrating, especially when you need access to your files and applications urgently. The methods to unlock your computer will vary depending on the specific situation and the type of lock you encounter. This guide will explore various scenarios and provide step-by-step instructions on how ...
    Gareth’s WorldBy admin
    14 hours ago

  • Faxing from Your Computer A Modern Guide to Sending Documents Digitally
    While the world has largely transitioned to digital communication, faxing still holds relevance in certain industries and situations. Fortunately, gone are the days of bulky fax machines and dedicated phone lines. Today, you can easily send and receive faxes directly from your computer, offering a convenient and efficient way to ...
    Gareth’s WorldBy admin
    14 hours ago

  • Protecting Your Home Computer A Guide to Cyber Awareness
    In our increasingly digital world, home computers have become essential tools for work, communication, entertainment, and more. However, this increased reliance on technology also exposes us to various cyber threats. Understanding these threats and taking proactive steps to protect your home computer is crucial for safeguarding your personal information, finances, ...
    Gareth’s WorldBy admin
    14 hours ago

  • Server-Based Computing Powering the Modern Digital Landscape
    In the ever-evolving world of technology, server-based computing has emerged as a cornerstone of modern digital infrastructure. This article delves into the concept of server-based computing, exploring its various forms, benefits, challenges, and its impact on the way we work and interact with technology. Understanding Server-Based Computing: At its core, ...
    Gareth’s WorldBy admin
    14 hours ago

  • Vroom vroom go the big red trucks
    The absolute brass neck of this guy.We want more medical doctors, not more spin doctors, Luxon was saying a couple of weeks ago, and now we’re told the guy has seven salaried adults on TikTok duty. Sorry, doing social media. The absolute brass neck of it. The irony that the ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    14 hours ago

  • Jones finds $410,000 to help the government muscle in on a spat project
    Buzz from the Beehive Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones relishes spatting and eagerly takes issue with environmentalists who criticise his enthusiasm for resource development. He relishes helping the fishing industry too. And so today, while the media are making much of the latest culling in the public service to ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    15 hours ago

  • Again, hate crimes are not necessarily terrorism.
    Having written, taught and worked for the US government on issues involving unconventional warfare and terrorism for 30-odd years, two things irritate me the most when the subject is discussed in public. The first is the Johnny-come-lately academics-turned-media commentators who … Continue reading → ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    18 hours ago

  • Despair – construction consenting edition
    Eric Crampton writes – Kainga Ora is the government’s house building agency. It’s been building a lot of social housing. Kainga Ora has its own (but independent) consenting authority, Consentium. It’s a neat idea. Rather than have to deal with building consents across each different territorial authority, Kainga Ora ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    18 hours ago

  • Coalition promises – will the Govt keep the commitment to keep Kiwis equal before the law?
    Muriel Newman writes – The Coalition Government says it is moving with speed to deliver campaign promises and reverse the damage done by Labour. One of their key commitments is to “defend the principle that New Zealanders are equal before the law.” To achieve this, they have pledged they “will not advance ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    18 hours ago

  • An impermanent public service is a guarantee of very little else but failure
    Chris Trotter writes –  The absence of anything resembling a fightback from the public servants currently losing their jobs is interesting. State-sector workers’ collective fatalism in the face of Coalition cutbacks indicates a surprisingly broad acceptance of impermanence in the workplace. Fifty years ago, lay-offs in the thousands ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    19 hours ago

  • What happens after the war – Mariupol
    Mariupol, on the Azov Sea coast, was one of the first cities to suffer almost complete destruction after the start of the Ukraine War started in late February 2022. We remember the scenes of absolute destruction of the houses and city structures. The deaths of innocent civilians – many of ...
    Open ParachuteBy Ken
    20 hours ago

  • Babies and benefits – no good news
    Lindsay Mitchell writes – Ten years ago, I wrote the following in a Listener column: Every year around one in five new-born babies will be reliant on their caregivers benefit by Christmas. This pattern has persisted from at least 1993. For Maori the number jumps to over one in three.  ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    20 hours ago

  • Should the RBNZ be looking through climate inflation?
    Climate change is expected to generate more and more extreme events, delivering a sort of structural shock to inflation that central banks will have to react to as if they were short-term cyclical issues. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāMy pick of the six newsey things to know from Aotearoa’s ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    20 hours ago

  • Bernard's pick 'n' mix of the news links
    The top six news links I’ve seen elsewhere in the last 24 hours, as of 9:16 am on Thursday, April 18 are:Housing: Tauranga residents living in boats, vans RNZ Checkpoint Louise TernouthHousing: Waikato councillor says wastewater plant issues could hold up Sleepyhead building a massive company town Waikato Times Stephen ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    21 hours ago

  • Gordon Campbell on the public sector carnage, and misogyny as terrorism
    It’s a simple deal. We pay taxes in order to finance the social services we want and need. The carnage now occurring across the public sector though, is breaking that contract. Over 3,000 jobs have been lost so far. Many are in crucial areas like Education where the impact of ...
    Gordon CampbellBy lyndon
    22 hours ago

  • Meeting the Master Baiters
    Hi,A friend had their 40th over the weekend and decided to theme it after Curb Your Enthusiasm fashion icon Susie Greene. Captured in my tiny kitchen before I left the house, I ending up evoking a mix of old lesbian and Hillary Clinton — both unintentional.Me vs Hillary ClintonIf you’re ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    1 day ago

  • How extreme was the Earth's temperature in 2023
    This is a re-post from Andrew Dessler at the Climate Brink blog In 2023, the Earth reached temperature levels unprecedented in modern times. Given that, it’s reasonable to ask: What’s going on? There’s been lots of discussions by scientists about whether this is just the normal progression of global warming or if something ...
    Skeptical Science
    1 day ago

  • Backbone, revisited
    The schools are on holiday and the sun is shining in the seaside village and all day long I have been seeing bunches of bikes; Mums, Dads, teens and toddlers chattering, laughing, happy, having a bloody great time together. Cheers, AT, for the bits of lane you’ve added lately around the ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    2 days ago

  • Ministers are not above the law
    Today in our National-led authoritarian nightmare: Shane Jones thinks Ministers should be above the law: New Zealand First MP Shane Jones is accusing the Waitangi Tribunal of over-stepping its mandate by subpoenaing a minister for its urgent hearing on the Oranga Tamariki claim. The tribunal is looking into the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago

  • What’s the outfit you can hear going down the gurgler? Probably it’s David Parker’s Oceans Sec...
    Buzz from the Beehive Point  of Order first heard of the Oceans Secretariat in June 2021, when David Parker (remember him?) announced a multi-agency approach to protecting New Zealand’s marine ecosystems and fisheries. Parker (holding the Environment, and Oceans and Fisheries portfolios) broke the news at the annual Forest & ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    2 days ago

  • Will politicians let democracy die in the darkness?
    Bryce Edwards writes  – Politicians across the political spectrum are implicated in the New Zealand media’s failing health. Either through neglect or incompetent interventions, successive governments have failed to regulate, foster, and allow a healthy Fourth Estate that can adequately hold politicians and the powerful to account. ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    2 days ago

  • Matt Doocey doubles down on trans “healthcare”
    Citizen Science writes –  Last week saw two significant developments in the debate over the treatment of trans-identifying children and young people – the release in Britain of the final report of Dr Hilary Cass’s review into gender healthcare, and here in New Zealand, the news that the ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    2 days ago

  • A TikTok Prime Minister.
    One night while sleeping in my bed I had a beautiful dreamThat all the people of the world got together on the same wavelengthAnd began helping one anotherNow in this dream, universal love was the theme of the dayPeace and understanding and it happened this wayAfter such an eventful day ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    2 days ago

  • Texas Lessons
    This is a guest post by Oscar Simms who is a housing activist, volunteer for the Coalition for More Homes, and was the Labour Party candidate for Auckland Central at the last election. ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    2 days ago

  • Bernard's pick 'n' mix of the news links at 6:06 am
    The top six news links I’ve seen elsewhere in the last 24 hours as of 6:06 am on Wednesday, April 17 are:Must read: Secrecy shrouds which projects might be fast-tracked RNZ Farah HancockScoop: Revealed: Luxon has seven staffers working on social media content - partly paid for by taxpayer Newshub ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago

  • Fighting poverty on the holiday highway
    Turning what Labour called the “holiday highway” into a four-lane expressway from Auckland to Whangarei could bring at least an economic benefit of nearly two billion a year for Northland each year. And it could help bring an end to poverty in one of New Zealand’s most deprived regions. The ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    2 days ago

  • Bernard's six-stack of substacks at 6:26 pm
    Tonight’s six-stack includes: launching his substack with a bunch of his previous documentaries, including this 1992 interview with Dame Whina Cooper. and here crew give climate activists plenty to do, including this call to submit against the Fast Track Approvals bill. writes brilliantly here on his substack ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago

  • At a glance – Is the science settled?
    On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
    Skeptical Science
    2 days ago

  • Apposite Quotations.
    How Long Is Long Enough? Gaza under Israeli bombardment, July 2014. This posting is exclusive to Bowalley Road. ...
    Bowalley Road
    3 days ago

  • What’s a life worth now?
    You're in the mall when you hear it: some kind of popping sound in the distance, kids with fireworks, maybe. But then a moment of eerie stillness is followed by more of the fireworks sound and there’s also screaming and shrieking and now here come people running for their lives.Does ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    3 days ago

  • Howling at the Moon
    Karl du Fresne writes –  There’s a crisis in the news media and the media are blaming it on everyone except themselves. Culpability is being deflected elsewhere – mainly to the hapless Minister of Communications, Melissa Lee, and the big social media platforms that are accused of hoovering ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago

  • Newshub is Dead.
    I don’t normally send out two newsletters in a day but I figured I’d say something about… the news. If two newsletters is a bit much then maybe just skip one, I don’t want to overload people. Alternatively if you’d be interested in sometimes receiving multiple, smaller updates from me, ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago

  • Seymour is chuffed about cutting early-learning red tape – but we hear, too, that Jones has loose...
    Buzz from the Beehive David Seymour and Winston Peters today signalled that at least two ministers of the Crown might be in Wellington today. Seymour (as Associate Minister of Education) announced the removal of more red tape, this time to make it easier for new early learning services to be ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    3 days ago

  • Bryce Edwards: Will politicians let democracy die in the darkness?
    Politicians across the political spectrum are implicated in the New Zealand media’s failing health. Either through neglect or incompetent interventions, successive governments have failed to regulate, foster, and allow a healthy Fourth Estate that can adequately hold politicians and the powerful to account. Our political system is suffering from the ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    3 days ago

  • Was Hawkesby entirely wrong?
    David Farrar  writes –  The Broadcasting Standards Authority ruled: Comments by radio host Kate Hawkesby suggesting Māori and Pacific patients were being prioritised for surgery due to their ethnicity were misleading and discriminatory, the Broadcasting Standards Authority has found. It is a fact such patients are prioritised. ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago

  • PRC shadow looms as the Solomons head for election
    PRC and its proxies in Solomons have been preparing for these elections for a long time. A lot of money, effort and intelligence have gone into ensuring an outcome that won’t compromise Beijing’s plans. Cleo Paskall writes – On April 17th the Solomon Islands, a country of ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago

  • Climate Change: Criminal ecocide
    We are in the middle of a climate crisis. Last year was (again) the hottest year on record. NOAA has just announced another global coral bleaching event. Floods are threatening UK food security. So naturally, Shane Jones wants to make it easier to mine coal: Resources Minister Shane Jones ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago

  • Is saving one minute of a politician's time worth nearly $1 billion?
    Is speeding up the trip to and from Wellington airport by 12 minutes worth spending up more than $10 billion? Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The six news items that stood out to me in the last day to 8:26 am today are:The Lead: Transport Minister Simeon Brown announced ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago

  • Long Tunnel or Long Con?
    Yesterday it was revealed that Transport Minister had asked Waka Kotahi to look at the options for a long tunnel through Wellington. State Highway 1 (SH1) through Wellington City is heavily congested at peak times and while planning continues on the duplicate Mt Victoria Tunnel and Basin Reserve project, the ...
    Greater AucklandBy Matt L
    3 days ago

  • Smoke And Mirrors.
    You're a fraud, and you know itBut it's too good to throw it all awayAnyone would do the sameYou've got 'em goingAnd you're careful not to show itSometimes you even fool yourself a bitIt's like magicBut it's always been a smoke and mirrors gameAnyone would do the sameForty six billion ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago

  • What is Mexico doing about climate change?
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections The June general election in Mexico could mark a turning point in ensuring that the country’s climate policies better reflect the desire of its citizens to address the climate crisis, with both leading presidential candidates expressing support for renewable energy. Mexico is the ...
    Skeptical Science
    3 days ago

  • State of humanity, 2024
    2024, it feels, keeps presenting us with ever more challenges, ever more dismay.Do you give up yet? It seems to ask.No? How about this? Or this?How about this?When I say 2024 I really mean the state of humanity in 2024.Saturday night, we watched Civil War because that is one terrifying cliff we've ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    4 days ago

  • Govt’s Wellington tunnel vision aims to ease the way to the airport (but zealous promoters of cycl...
    Buzz from the Beehive A pet project and governmental tunnel vision jump out from the latest batch of ministerial announcements. The government is keen to assure us of its concern for the wellbeing of our pets. It will be introducing pet bonds in a change to the Residential Tenancies Act ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago

  • The case for cultural connectedness
    A recent report generated from a Growing Up in New Zealand (GUiNZ) survey of 1,224 rangatahi Māori aged 11-12 found: Cultural connectedness was associated with fewer depression symptoms, anxiety symptoms and better quality of life. That sounds cut and dry. But further into the report the following appears: Cultural connectedness is ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago

  • Useful context on public sector job cuts
    David Farrar writes –    The Herald reports: From the gory details of job-cuts news, you’d think the public service was being eviscerated.   While the media’s view of the cuts is incomplete, it’s also true that departments have been leaking the particulars faster than a Wellington ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago

  • Gordon Campbell On When Racism Comes Disguised As Anti-racism
    Remember the good old days, back when New Zealand had a PM who could think and speak calmly and intelligently in whole sentences without blustering? Even while Iran’s drones and missiles were still being launched, Helen Clark was live on TVNZ expertly summing up the latest crisis in the Middle ...
    Gordon CampbellBy lyndon
    4 days ago

  • Govt ignored economic analysis of smokefree reversal
    Costello did not pass on analysis of the benefits of the smokefree reforms to Cabinet, emphasising instead the extra tax revenues of repealing them. Photo: Hagen Hopkins, Getty Images TL;DR: The six news items that stood out to me at 7:26 am today are:The Lead: Casey Costello never passed on ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago

  • True Blue.
    True loveYou're the one I'm dreaming ofYour heart fits me like a gloveAnd I'm gonna be true blueBaby, I love youI’ve written about the job cuts in our news media last week. The impact on individuals, and the loss to Aotearoa of voices covering our news from different angles.That by ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago

  • Who is running New Zealand’s foreign policy?
    While commentators, including former Prime Minister Helen Clark, are noting a subtle shift in New Zealand’s foreign policy, which now places more emphasis on the United States, many have missed a key element of the shift. What National said before the election is not what the government is doing now. ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    4 days ago

  • 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #15
    A listing of 31 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, April 7, 2024 thru Sat, April 13, 2024. Story of the week Our story of the week is about adults in the room setting terms and conditions of ...
    Skeptical Science
    4 days ago

  • Feline Friends and Fragile Fauna The Complexities of Cats in New Zealand’s Conservation Efforts

    Cats, with their independent spirit and beguiling purrs, have captured the hearts of humans for millennia. In New Zealand, felines are no exception, boasting the highest national cat ownership rate globally [definition cat nz cat foundation]. An estimated 1.134 million pet cats grace Kiwi households, compared to 683,000 dogs ...

    Gareth’s WorldBy admin
    4 days ago

  • Or is that just they want us to think?
    Nice guy, that Peter Williams. Amiable, a calm air of no-nonsense capability, a winning smile. Everything you look for in a TV presenter and newsreader.I used to see him sometimes when I went to TVNZ to be a talking head or a panellist and we would yarn. Nice guy, that ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    5 days ago

  • Fact Brief – Did global warming stop in 1998?
    Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. This fact brief was written by Sue Bin Park in collaboration with members from our Skeptical Science team. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline. Did global warming stop in ...
    Skeptical Science
    5 days ago

  • Arguing over a moot point.
    I have been following recent debates in the corporate and social media about whether it is a good idea for NZ to join what is known as “AUKUS Pillar Two.” AUKUS is the Australian-UK-US nuclear submarine building agreement in which … Continue reading → ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    6 days ago

  • No Longer Trusted: Ageing Boomers, Laurie & Les, Talk Politics.
    Turning Point: “What has turned me away from the mainstream news media is the very strong message that its been sending out for the last few years.” “And what message might that be?” “That the people who own it, the people who run it, and the people who provide its content, really don’t ...
    Bowalley Road
    6 days ago

  • Mortgage rates at 10% anyone?
    No – nothing about that in PM Luxon’s nine-point plan to improve the lives of New Zealanders. But beyond our shores Jamie Dimon, the long-serving head of global bank J.P. Morgan Chase, reckons that the chances of a goldilocks soft landing for the economy are “a lot lower” than the ...
    Point of OrderBy xtrdnry
    6 days ago

  • Sad tales from the left
    Michael Bassett writes –  Have you noticed the odd way in which the media are handling the government’s crackdown on surplus employees in the Public Service? Very few reporters mention the crazy way in which State Service numbers rocketed ahead by more than 16,000 during Labour’s six years, ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago

  • In Whose Best Interests?
    On The Spot: The question Q+A host, Jack Tame, put to the Workplace & Safety Minister, Act’s Brooke van Velden, was disarmingly simple: “Are income tax cuts right now in the best interests of lowering inflation?”JACK TAME has tested another MP on his Sunday morning current affairs show, Q+A. Minister for Workplace ...
    Bowalley Road
    6 days ago

  • Don’t Question, Don’t Complain.
    It has to start somewhereIt has to start sometimeWhat better place than here?What better time than now?So it turns out that I owe you all an apology.It seems that all of the terrible things this government is doing, impacting the lives of many, aren’t necessarily ‘bad’ per se. Those things ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    6 days ago

  • Auckland faces 25% water inflation shock
    Three Waters became a focus of anti-Government protests under Labour, but its dumping by the new Government hasn’t solved councils’ funding problems and will eventually hit the back pockets of everyone. Photo: Lynn Grieveson/Getty ImagesTL;DR: The six news items that stood out to me at 8:06 am today are:The Government ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago

  • Small accomplishments and large ironies
    Hello! Here comes the Saturday edition of More Than A Feilding, catching you up on the past week’s editions.Share Read more ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago

  • The Song of Saqua: Volume VII
    In order to catch up to the actual progress of the D&D campaign, I present you with another couple of sessions. These were actually held back to back, on a Monday and Tuesday evening. Session XV Alas, Goatslayer had another lycanthropic transformation… though this time, he ran off into the ...
    A Phuulish FellowBy strda221
    6 days ago

  • Accelerating the Growth Rate?
    There is a constant theme from the economic commentariat that New Zealand needs to lift its economic growth rate, coupled with policies which they are certain will attain that objective. Their prescriptions are usually characterised by two features. First, they tend to be in their advocate’s self-interest. Second, they are ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    7 days ago

  • The only thing we have to fear is tenants themselves
    1. Which of these acronyms describes the experience of travelling on a Cook Strait ferry?a. ROROb. FOMOc. RAROd. FMLAramoana, first boat ever boarded by More Than A Feilding, four weeks after the Wahine disaster2. What is the acronym for the experience of watching the government risking a $200 million break ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    7 days ago

  • Comprehensive Partnership the goal for NZ and the Philippines
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr.  The Prime Minister was accompanied by MP Paulo Garcia, the first Filipino to be elected to a legislature outside the Philippines. During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon and President Marcos Jr discussed opportunities to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
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  • Government commits $20m to Westport flood protection
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  • Taupō takes pole position
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  • Cost of living support for low-income homeowners
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  • Clean energy key driver to reducing emissions
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  • Thailand and NZ to agree to Strategic Partnership
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  • Government consults on extending coastal permits for ports
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  • Unnecessary bureaucracy cut in oceans sector
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  • Removing red tape to help early learners thrive
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  • Prime Minister Luxon acknowledges legacy of Singapore Prime Minister Lee
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  • Antarctica New Zealand Board appointments
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  • NZ welcomes Australian Governor-General
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  • NZ and the US: an ever closer partnership
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  • Joint US and NZ declaration
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  • NZ and US to undertake further practical Pacific cooperation
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  • Government redress for Te Korowai o Wainuiārua
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  • Focus on outstanding minerals permit applications
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  • Applications open for NZ-Ireland Research Call
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  • Tenancy rules changes to improve rental market
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  • Boosting NZ’s trade and agricultural relationship with China
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  • Freshwater farm plan systems to be improved
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  • New Fast Track Projects advisory group named
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