Pollwatch: Colmar Brunton, October 23rd

Written By: - Date published: 8:42 pm, October 23rd, 2018 - 100 comments
Categories: act, greens, Judith Collins, labour, maori party, national, nz first, Simon Bridges - Tags: , ,

We return to Pollwatch for the first time this quarter with almost two months since our last political poll, and a major scandal on our hands. If you’d like the raw figures, head on over to One News for the text or video versions of their coverage, as we don’t have time to go over the raw numbers too much, other than to say the most likely government now shows us not needing New Zealand First for a left-wing coalition. If that’s a trend that continues to the next election, I predict a lot of hugging.

So in a fit of terrific rounding from TVNZ that gives us 101%, we have a projected seatcount of between 61 and 73 seats out of 121 for the left wing bloc, making a right-wing government only possible at a snap election if this poll were a rogue, (odds similar to NZ First’s share of the vote) and a Labour-Green government the most likely outcome given my current coalition and electorate assumptions. Hardly surprising  given there’s been a scandal for the opposition, but amazing that even with such a small shift from the National Party, (suggesting a shake in confidence but not a move in political support) they’re so roundly out of power, showing how weak they are in reality.

The shifts are likely National eating ACT’s residual vote, Labour eating most of National’s departed support and some minor party votes, or possibly some NZF support with NZF gaining roughly equal numbers of departed Nats, and the Greens gaining some of Labour’s former support and some residual minor party votes.

Obvious factors effecting this other than the scandal itself: a perception government parties are hard at work while the opposition is squabbling among itself, Labour shutting up during National’s scandal and putting its money where its mouth is on being slightly kinder and focusing on ordinary kiwis in a very Green Party-esque strategy,  and New Zealand First looking like vindictive children.

Compare this to National’s previous lowpoint in MMP, it looks superficially quite good: They have 43% here vs 30.5% the first time Bill English ran, but you have to remember that the 43% represents virtually the entire center-to-right spectrum in New Zealand with NZF in coalition with Labour, arguably representing centre-left conservatives, and ACT all-but-gone, only 2005 pre-election polls were more disastrious than this, with a 37.5% poll for centre-right parties, and 9.6% for a New Zealand First party that wasn’t aligned with the then-Labour government. Even attributing a third of New Zealand First’s votes in 2002 to the left, the worst pre-election poll still gives a better poll for the right than this one- far from being in a position to be relieved it’s not so bad, as Bryce Edwards argues,1 Bridges has arguably just presided over the worst poll for the New Zealand right since MMP came in, as well as the second poll this year where they’ve been overtaken by Labour in the party vote, despite Labour having two electable allies and National having no significant backup. Looking at National’s consolidated result as a party that’s eaten up all the right-wing ideological space conceals that the Right is simply de-energized, more so than even during Bill English’s racist, Cadbury-parody of a first campaign.

Add to that only a 2% support for his handling of recent events, a result weaker than climate science denial, and his previous gains in Preferred Prime Minister being split with Judith Collins, and we have a National Party that’s desperately trying to look united and ready to cease back government, while showing obvious cracks and a leadership vacuum.

I would actually be surprised if National ever gets significantly below 40% without supporters having fled to some other perceived conservative or right-wing party, so there really isn’t so much further down to go before the united front shatters.

At this point, even a divisive and disastrous run by Collins for the leadership is looking attractive to the party base, although they’re obviously still cautious about changing leaders in opposition after seeing how poorly it served Labour pre-renewal. And even at the nadir of centre-right support in MMP politics, ACT still can’t drum up any significant party vote support.

Assumptions: ACT win Epsom, New Zealand First will coalesce/align with Labour if possible, Labour will ditch NZF in favour of the Greens as a coalition partner if possible, no overhang seats for National or Labour, no new parties or parties out of Parliament for more than one term are elected to Parliament.

Notes:
1I suggest a new minimum standard for New Zealand political commentary on polls: the ability to add together blocs of political parties in your analysis. Perhaps show producers shouldn’t invite any commentator who engages in more superficial coverage than that?

The Greens were over threshold in 100% of simulated margins of error from this poll, NZF were only over threshold in 46.2% of them. (That number should be approach 50% as we increase the number of simulations with them on exactly 5%, so this is a bit of a run of bad luck for them.) There were no quirky Labour governing alone or hung parliament scenarios cropping up this time.

On reading graphs: The “seat variance” shows what assuming the extreme left- and right-wing variants of the margin of error delivers our political parties, (yeah, I keep categories open for parties that currently have no chance, as I needed them open in the past) currently placing NZF in the left bloc. The ” Government probability trend over time” graph on the right shows the shifting possibility of various parliamentary scenarios since  I started simulating likely government results, with the distance from the previous line colour on the key indicating share of probability in each poll. (a lack of lines at the bottom indicates a probability of a National(-Act) government existing, the dark grey line dropping indicates an increasing chance of Labour-Green coalition or Labour minority government)

100 comments on “Pollwatch: Colmar Brunton, October 23rd ”

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  1. mickysavage 1
    23 October 2018 at 8:54 pm

    That is a real pretty circle …

    • Matthew Whitehead 1.1
      23 October 2018 at 8:57 pm

      If it still looks like a circle next election campaign I’m gonna be one happy chappy. 🙂 This is only the second time since the election we’ve had a 0% chance of a National Government. (assuming Peters doesn’t choose one, ofc)

      • patricia bremner 1.1.1
        23 October 2018 at 10:30 pm

        Thanks Mathew. I can’t see Winston choosing National ever again.

        • Matthew Whitehead 1.1.1.1
          23 October 2018 at 11:01 pm

          Oh I can see it, I just don’t think it’s a smart move right now.

          • WILD KATIPO 1.1.1.1.1
            23 October 2018 at 11:17 pm

            Naaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah !

            Winston taken enough garbage from that neo liberal dirt bag party. He’s not likely to go back for seconds after the slurs and the insults and the leaking of his personal information to the public.

            As well as a great smile , a lightning wit , the mans got values. New Zealand values of the Kiwi way of life. Unlike the current mess that’s called National.

            And their $100,000 donations buying a place in their caucus.

            • cleangreen 1.1.1.1.1.1
              24 October 2018 at 7:31 am

              100% Wild Katipo.

              I couldn’t say it better.

            • Matthew Whitehead 1.1.1.1.1.2
              24 October 2018 at 6:58 pm

              You do realize that New Zealand First declared none of its donations for the election year, right? It’s frankly not credible that they had no donations large enough to clear the threshold.

          • BM 1.1.1.1.2
            24 October 2018 at 7:37 am

            He will if Collins is Leader.

            • You_Fool 1.1.1.1.2.1
              24 October 2018 at 1:29 pm

              He will if they offer him the role of PM, and that is it… There are no other scenarios where that happens

              • BM …
                24 October 2018 at 1:59 pm

                So how’s that going to work if he decides to go with Labour?

                • You_Fool …
                  24 October 2018 at 2:59 pm

                  He doesn’t need that from Labour, he can actually work with them… He can’t work with National, so the Nats need to offer him something huge, bigger than what they tried to bribe him with last year… and that is the PM-ship

        • bwaghorn 1.1.1.2
          24 October 2018 at 10:43 am

          Jones would though and gunner Mark’s

  2. Carolyn_Nth 2
    23 October 2018 at 9:01 pm

    Welcome back to Poll watch, Matthew. And it’s an interesting result, because, on the main left wing blogs currently few are speaking up for the Green Party – and in at least one case, some vicious hammering of a GP leader.

    Yet, for all some people are saying the GP is weak and lost, and with little mainstream media cheering them on, they are polling very well, as you point out.

    • Matthew Whitehead 2.1
      23 October 2018 at 9:09 pm

      Yep, this is the highest the GP have ever polled while supporting a government IIRC?

      edit: *spoiler voice* It was not.

      • WILD KATIPO 2.1.1
        23 October 2018 at 11:21 pm

        Aint it wonderful?

        And all it shows is that Labour, NZ First and the Greens know how to get it on and make a govt work WITHOUT devouring their support partners. What a wonderful time it is for NZ .

        🙂

      • Dukeofurl 2.1.2
        24 October 2018 at 8:21 am

        Ahhh the polls.

        Actual results may differ – especially that Greens dont quite reach their polling numbers on election day while NZ First does better than their polls.
        Its down to the demographic that support each party and the likely hood of actually voting

  3. Kat 3
    23 October 2018 at 9:36 pm

    Don’t be too harsh on NZF, Winston and Jacinda work well together and I for one don’t mind that he has her back covered. NZF need to get across the line in 2020 and be part of the continuing coalition. By election time current ministers and present portfolios will likely be refreshed as the coalition adjusts to the inevitable changing political demands of long term governance. I don’t see any chance for National winning in 2020 or 2023 while Jacinda Ardern is Prime Minister and presides over what is shaping up to be a very cohesive coalition.

    • Carolyn_Nth 3.1
      23 October 2018 at 9:56 pm

      NZ First is basically conservative and old style National. It will hold a left wing government back in the long term: e.g. Winston saying he sees no problem with the funding arrangement for political parties – he calls it “market forces” and says that is democratic. But there is nothing democratic about market forces.

      • Kat 3.1.1
        23 October 2018 at 10:13 pm

        Or you could now regard NZF as just as representative of conservative Labour. Better to eyeball them around the table than have them making a nuisance scratching at the door to get in. Winston is a canny old polly and is playing a significant role in the changing of the guard. Much to the chagrin of those on the right of centre and the anti Ardern brigade.

        • Carolyn_Nth 3.1.1.1
          23 October 2018 at 10:39 pm

          Before the last election I thought the current parliamentary Labour was more inclined towards NZF than the GP. This is part of Labour being continually dragged rightwards.

          To me this is the problem with the current Labour government at a time we need a truly left wing government. They are too concerned with appeasing the middle and business classes to truly be a party bringing the changes needed to low income people.

        • Matthew Whitehead 3.1.1.2
          23 October 2018 at 10:57 pm

          NZF is definitely Muldoon-style conservative National Party politics. There are some things Muldoon-style politics has in common with modern left-wing politics (it’s not averse to spending government money, but it is averse to collecting revenue at a reasonable rate)

          They are not a left-wing conservative party, (I’m not sure there’s even enough votes in that constituency for such a thing to exist, tbh) even though they are currently aligned with the left, and fit with us better than with National. They are fundamentally a conservative, centrist force. (although centrist in that odd “we’re leftist on some things and rightist on others” way, rather than being moderated in their economic policy)

          • WILD KATIPO 3.1.1.2.1
            23 October 2018 at 11:43 pm

            Its interesting that in an article written some time ago , Muldoon and his policy’s on welfare were closer to MANA than even the Greens are today. And thus Peters walks a similar path.

            THAT ,… is how far this country has fallen ,… from the original social democracy that this country was well known ( and admired ) for.

            Glad Peters if Deputy PM , glad Adern is PM , glad Labour , Greens and NZ First are the coalition govt. Imagine the odious alternative.

            • Matthew Whitehead 3.1.1.2.1.1
              24 October 2018 at 8:44 am

              Peters is not closer to Mana than the Greens are, lol. He is the big obstacle to the welfare reforms the Greens want, for instance, and the Greens picked up Hone’s feed the kids bill.

          • Kahu 3.1.1.2.2
            24 October 2018 at 8:42 pm

            The division within the party seems to be two-thirds right-labourist & one third left-nationalist. Old-time Labour party people socially conservative but economically left & old-time Muldoonist left wing of the Nats, also more socially conservative than Nat Right-Liberals but not so economically right wing. Labour is basically Left-liberal these days, not so workerist/labourist.

      • patricia bremner 3.1.2
        23 October 2018 at 10:38 pm

        Don’t bite the hand that put you in Government LOL.

        • Carolyn_Nth 3.1.2.1
          23 October 2018 at 10:42 pm

          I’m not in government. And it is not the government I had been hoping for over the last decade. It’s not the government of real change that we need right now.

          In the long run, it could set the NZ left back a decade or so.

          It’s good to see the back of the Nats in the short term….. but….

      • WILD KATIPO 3.1.3
        23 October 2018 at 11:39 pm

        Well Winston was ‘old time conservative national’.

        I see no real probs with that after a fashion,… but lets address the real cause of angst: the soft power inclinations of the Chinese Communist party and their successful penetration of the NZ political scene.

        It was timely that all this has now come to light. And let us not forget either that Peters has spoken out loudly and clearly about just this sort of thing descending on NZ. He alone, in the direct political spheres has been for decades, – the lone voice crying in the wilderness.

        And he was repeatedly trashed for doing so.

        And he was trashed precisely because of the neo liberal ideology of globalism and open slather immigration. Full blown, irresponsible immigration that was non discriminatory and was designed to lower wages, advantage the moneyed rentier class , provide National with a steady stream of new voters , – and weaken the concept of national sovereignty, irrespective of from where those immigrants came.

        Which served international free trade deals, with punitive conditions that meant mere corporations could sue a govt if it passed legislation that curbed their avarice.

        But Peters has been vindicated.

        This is what New Zealanders voted for in their gullibility, rush towards riches at the expense of fellow New Zealanders and ignorance of geopolitical forces.

      • Kahu 3.1.4
        24 October 2018 at 8:32 pm

        I’ve always seen NZF as being left-nationalist but I don’t know …am I wrong to think that?

    • ScottGN 3.2
      23 October 2018 at 9:57 pm

      I agree Kat. I think that the current 3 partners in government have the potential to form a very durable governing arrangement.

      • Enough is Enough 3.2.1
        24 October 2018 at 1:17 pm

        You think they do, or you hope you do?

        I think the antics of the past couple of months will be irrelevant in 12 months. We are certainly due an economic retraction in the not to distant future. We are at the tail end of, what has been by historic standards, a long economic expansion.

        Something has to, and will give in the next 18 months.

        It is how this government deals with that slowdown/recession which will determine whether they get back into government. Neither this government, nor the one lead by Helen Clark has had to deal with a financial crisis so no one really knows how they will perform.

        Blind Freddy can govern when the economy is booming. It is during the tough times that governments really show their worth.

    • Matthew Whitehead 3.3
      23 October 2018 at 10:42 pm

      I in fact make a constant effort to be kind to NZF, National, and ACT in these posts because I am trying to give you all a fair (if obviously left/Green aligned) analysis. This is me toning down the harshness. (:

      I’m an unashamed liberal though, so you can’t ask me not to be pleased by the idea of not needing a conservative party to pass legislation.

      • WILD KATIPO 3.3.1
        24 October 2018 at 12:13 am

        Perhaps not ask you to be pleased but certainly recognize that same ‘conservative party’ enabled the current govt to be formed. As has been pointed out, the odious alternative would be unthinkable . NZ would have imploded if that was the case.

        We just could not have kept going under the duplicitous agendas of Nationals angling to sell off and privatize this country any longer, it had to be stopped in its tracks…

        ——————————————————-

        … ” We don’t like extremists, – we believe in laws and policy’s that support the mass majority of New Zealanders , and not just a small elite ,… who may have gotten control of the political system and the financial funding of political party’s , … shows that in this campaign ” …

        – Winston Peters.

        23/9/2017.

        Peters said the sell off of New Zealand interests to overseas buyers was the “continuing story of this country’s decline since the 14th of July, 1984”.

        ———————————————————

      • cleangreen 3.3.2
        24 October 2018 at 7:38 am

        Nah I don’t see that Matthew, you love sticking ‘Greens’ up front of the que and trash the others; – always.

        You said;
        “I in fact make a constant effort to be kind to NZF, National, and ACT in these posts”

        • Matthew Whitehead 3.3.2.1
          24 October 2018 at 8:45 am

          I am honest that this is a good poll for the Greens. You will actually note that despite an ongoing trend to Labour being able to drop NZF being the big news here I spent most of my time talking about the opposition.

          • WILD KATIPO 3.3.2.1.1
            24 October 2018 at 2:27 pm

            And,…. if Labour were foolish enough to ‘drop’ NZ First and snub them,… do you really think that’s wise to cut off yet another potential party that A ) seems to work well with Labour and B ) potentially ( though it would never happen ) gift National a support partner ???.

            All for the sake of a short term temporary 3 year stint that could implode later on leaving options limited ?

            I think not.

            ATM , we have a well balanced govt , PRECISELY BECAUSE we have Labour, NZ First and the Greens.

            • Matthew Whitehead 3.3.2.1.1.1
              24 October 2018 at 7:00 pm

              Dropping them from coalition is not the same thing as not working together with them in areas you want to. Effectively we’d just reverse the relationship Labour had with each of its support partners.

  4. BM 4
    23 October 2018 at 9:50 pm

    I slaughtered a chicken and read its guts, it’s not looking good for Ardern.

  5. SPC 5
    23 October 2018 at 10:34 pm

    It might be wise for Labour to have a talk with the two other parties about the next government being Labour led and having relationships with both parties, even if it could form a government with either.

    This would reassure both NZF (and Greens) and voters (into making it so on election day).

    Greens would be a more equal player with NZF in such a government but it would be seen as a continuation of the status quo.

    • Carolyn_Nth 5.1
      23 October 2018 at 10:44 pm

      We need change, not a continuation of the status quo.

      • SPC 5.1.1
        24 October 2018 at 12:10 am

        But then again the fiscal straight jacket the coalition is under is a result of a Labour-Green commitment to

        1. not spend more than 30% GDP
        2. meet a debt to GDP target
        3. finance $2Bpa out of tax revenues for the Cullen Fund

        So what particular change would you expect?

        Neither Labour or Greens is proposing to stop paying those over 65 still working super ($4B gross and $3Bpa after tax adjustments).
        Nor to put in place a CGT that taxed gains on historic cost (backdated decades) – thus raising significant revenue
        Nor collecting 1% from the employee and the employer to place into the Cullen Fund

        Yet anything less would not provide functional public services – hospitals, schools and state housing could take a B pa each. And then there is dental care and mental health into MSM health delivery, better rehabitilitation/including community houses, better Pharmac funding, better support for those in poor health (outside ACC) etc. Then there is child poverty …

        • Gabby 5.1.1.1
          24 October 2018 at 10:27 am

          I notice nobody is even hinting at mentioning that possibility – only paying a pension to retirees. Much better for manual workers to cripple themselves working to 67 than for shiny arses to forgo their bach heated pools.

      • Left_forward 5.1.2
        24 October 2018 at 7:44 am

        Britain and US certainly got change in spades a coupla years ago.
        A few people questioning ‘change’ now.

        • Incognito 5.1.2.1
          24 October 2018 at 10:19 pm

          Yes, when “change” means “anything by status quo” it can have unintended if not perverse consequences. My idea is to develop an alternative idea, a vision, and then implement it and be the change you want to see AKA prefigurative politics.

    • Matthew Whitehead 5.2
      23 October 2018 at 10:49 pm

      Labour will no doubt keep its options open. Its degree of commitment pre-election to NZF will likely mirror their own degree of commitment, as will their willingness to offer favourable terms reflect favourable treatment during the campaign.

      Even a Labour-Green coalition government won’t burn bridges with NZF, there would likely be some things in it for them commensurate to the usefulness of their support. (assuming they stay above threshold)

  6. Mat Simpson 6
    23 October 2018 at 11:09 pm

    Labour- Green government after November 21st 2020 ( last date for the general election ) please with a larger Green vote i hope.
    It is time the Greens got a real share of a possible governing arrangement and not have to take third place without a place or places in cabinet.

    • Dukeofurl 6.1
      24 October 2018 at 8:24 am

      Thats because their supporters say in the polls they will vote for them but then dont cast a vote at all.

  7. WILD KATIPO 7
    23 October 2018 at 11:10 pm

    Song from Johhny ,…

    Johnny Cash – The One On The Right Is On The Left – YouTube
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aDSN1F72QU4

  8. patricia bremner 8
    24 October 2018 at 3:25 am

    JACINDA has given many hope again. The coalition is an example of cooperation to be admired. Together they are tackling problems on every side while trying to erase 9 years of bad governance.
    A coalition means compromise. A huge effort to be inclusive has been a hallmark.
    Socialism has to be tempered. As does Capitalism.
    This Government has tasked all working groups with the measuring stick of ‘Is it good for NZ and New Zealanders?’ A huge improvement on ‘Does it make money?
    We are fortunate indeed.

    • RedLogix 8.1
      24 October 2018 at 3:49 am

      Socialism has to be tempered. As does Capitalism.

      And to think I frittered tens of thousands of words trying to say the same thing you managed in 8 🙂

      Cheers

    • Left_forward 8.2
      24 October 2018 at 7:47 am

      Its not that I disagree with your main point, but tell me why does socialism need to be tempered?
      Its like saying justice and equity need to be tempered.

      • Doogs 8.2.1
        24 October 2018 at 9:00 am

        No leftie, it isn’t like that. Justice and equity are absolutes. Socialism is a spectrum, where extreme versions of it are just as damaging as capitalism, but in a different way.

        • Left_forward 8.2.1.1
          24 October 2018 at 9:13 am

          No doogie, Socialism is a political philosophy based on tenets of justice and equity for all. I assume the ‘versions’ that you are referring to are something else.

          • Doogs 8.2.1.1.1
            24 October 2018 at 9:26 am

            Socialism is a very broad term.

            Dictionary definition –
            “A political and economic theory of social organization which advocates that the means of production, distribution, and exchange should be owned or regulated by the community as a whole.”

            And now a comment regarding this definition. Not mine, but from a reliable source –
            “The term ‘socialism’ has been used to describe positions as far apart as anarchism, Soviet state Communism, and social democracy; however, it necessarily implies an opposition to the untrammelled workings of the economic market. The socialist parties that have arisen in most European countries from the late 19th century have generally tended towards social democracy.”

            If that isn’t a fairly wide spectrum of ideology, then tell me what is.

            • Left_forward 8.2.1.1.1.1
              24 October 2018 at 4:32 pm

              Perhaps PB means that that the extreme positions that have used ‘socialism’ to justify something else need to be tempered – communism for example. At least in NZ they seem to have been tempered long ago.

              So… going back to my first question… why does [your dictionary definition of] socialism need to be tempered today?

              It seems very reasonable to me to oppose the ‘untrammelled workings of the economic market’. If this is socialism, lets have more of it!

    • Carolyn_Nth 8.3
      24 October 2018 at 3:15 pm

      JACINDA has given many hope again. The coalition is an example of cooperation to be admired.

      Yes yes. We’re constantly being told that. For some of us who have reservations about how much the current government will do for the struggling classes, it becomes a bit tiresome to see the constant uncritical cheerleading of Ardern government.

      The Greens, on the other hand, are getting constantly hammered in the mainstream media, and on some left wing blogs. Bradbury rarely says anything good about them, and is currently hammering Davidson.

      The postings on this site now tend mostly to be in support of Labour, and the Greens have been marginalised. It almost seems like many on the left are in first past the post mode: hammering the Nats, and cheerleading Labour.

      Yet, in spite of this, it’s interesting to see the GP is holding their ground in polls.

      • Patricia Bremner 8.3.1
        24 October 2018 at 4:41 pm

        Carolyn_Nth, “Yes yes. We’re constantly being told that.’
        No we are not. On this blog I have seen more photos of Judith and Simon than Jacinda… just saying.

        ‘Uncritical cheerleading of the Ardern government’ Is that meant to mock me because I rate her?
        I admit to being a card carrying Labour person. That does not mean I don’t think or see areas still to be tackled or improved.

        “The Greens have been marginalised” The lack of postings may be felt since Weka left. Perhaps the Greens on this site need to communicate more to give Green views for better balance?
        Bradbury gets bees in his bonnet and now and then he Rants.
        As you point out, your improving poll ratings must be giving him a lesson.

        Your comment about “struggling classes.”
        Yes, Labour and National widened gaps.
        This Government has begun the arduous task of cleaning up.
        Living and working in Rotorua, I couldn’t help but be aware of the problems caused by both L/N . Paul East Nat with his $80.00 a day allowance(560!! per week), on one hand, and a newly widowed father of two managing on $80.00 a week was when I started to become active.

        Tell us the issues you want discussed here. You might be uplifted.

  9. WILD KATIPO 9
    24 October 2018 at 4:11 am

    Meanwhile,… back on the farm , and far away from the inanities that mark our current inwards looking perspectives,…

    A closer look at – Guy Chases Bigfoot In The Woods – YouTube
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QnJwBAskrf8

  10. WeTheBleeple 10
    24 October 2018 at 6:19 am

    There’s an awful lot of self interest tied up in the left still. Many can’t wait to throw Winston under the bus, or the greens, or labor isn’t good enough.

    Tribalism. Sad shit.

    Shame on you all for missing what you have, just to continue whining. What we got isn’t perfect – so remain critical where it is relevant…

    Much of this is just whining and bashing. You do yourselves no favors.

    Without differing views you basically get a dictatorship disguised as a democracy. We have a bi-partisan government working together. The news is not filled with their fighting and follies, despite media absolutely gurning to make it so. We have the opposite where the one party left to its own devices is imploding, while these disparate souls are rolling their sleeves up.

    We have politicians doing their jobs.

    Greens keep labor honest, labor keep greens on the planet.

    Winston has a shit ton of experience and can be relied on to put shit talkers in their place if it’s required. Winston who understands a generation most of you obviously don’t. Manners, humor, a little class even.

    This is freaking rad man. This is how society is meant to work. This is how government is meant to work. We get all parties to the table and hammer out what is best for all.

    We disagree, we learn why the objections, we learn about each other. We learn things we did not know. We grow.

    Or we cross our arms and act like petulant children cos it seems the left want all the toys to their respective selves too.

    Shame.

    • Cinny 10.1
      24 October 2018 at 7:25 am

      Have never voted NZ First, but am very pleased they are part of our current government, as I hold Tracey Martin in high regard. Her work and efforts towards education and children among other things has been and is outstanding.

      Also, I feel Winston has been fantastic as a caretaker PM and am very pleased he is minister of foreign affairs, he shines in that role.

      • OnceWasTim 10.1.1
        24 October 2018 at 10:05 am

        +1
        I get the impression that those who identify with being progressive and left of centre generally don’t see change happening fast enough or going far enough.

        I sometimes feel the frustration myself over quite a few issues (public service reform; public service broadcasting; housing; commodification in the tertiary education sector; etc.) but there is quite a bit going on in the background, and ‘big bang’ changes more often than not, historically seem to go tits-up.

        The gNats clearly hate it that NZF and Labour are getting on just fine, and given their agenda – that’s a good sign.

        • Carolyn_Nth 10.1.1.1
          24 October 2018 at 3:27 pm

          I get the impression that those who identify with being progressive and left of centre generally don’t see change happening fast enough or going far enough.

          Exactly, because we’ve been here before too often in recent decades.

          Gradual is not going to cut it anymore. eg The Clark Labour government gave us some relief, but, in retrospect it just served as maintaining a holding pattern. over time, meanwhile, the centre of politics mainstream keeps getting shunted sideways. And this is because Labour Parties are still operating within the neoliberal framwork.

          Now more than ever, we need decisive change for the future.

      • Carolyn_Nth 10.1.2
        24 October 2018 at 3:24 pm

        I also rate Tracey Martin after having seen her talk at events a few times. Of all the NZF MPs, it seems to me she is the best fit with Labour. I think she wouldn’t be out of place in the Labour Party, albeit, the more conservative wing of it.

    • Left_forward 10.2
      24 October 2018 at 8:02 am

      It depends how deep you look Bleep. It certainly is a kind of tribalism, but scratch the surface and underneath is some pretty important stuff about humans and the things that are important to us.
      For example, it is important for blue tribe members to not contribute anything to help others, take from common resources, build walls, and help the rich get richer. Its a kind of religion.
      The black one wants NZ to be the way it was and likes walls too.
      The red tribe are working hard to forget that they changed colour a few years back and many want them to go back to sharing and looking after each other. They are trying hard to do this.
      The green tribe want to share too, but also wants to look after the natural world that the blue tribe wants to rape and plunder.

    • Matthew Whitehead 10.3
      24 October 2018 at 8:46 am

      NZ First are reluctant allies to the Left. Don’t get confused that they’re a permanent part of our bloc.

      • WILD KATIPO 10.3.1
        24 October 2018 at 2:11 pm

        There was a prominent commentator not so long that did an article on a NZ First regional meet, ( may have even been an AGM,) that was suprised and heartened that it had the same sort of cross section and ‘feel’ of society that Labour had in the early /mid 1970’s. People from all walks.

        And rather than the usual standard fare of identity politics and side issues, the topics were those of concern for the people of this country. Immigration, anti – neo liberalism, labour laws , housing, taxation etc… in other words, – all the issues directly pertaining to peoples concern of this country .

        I think the commentator was Chris Trotter though I’m not too sure.

        At any rate, NZ First , … because it is reminiscent of so many values from pre 1984 , is by definition more left than one would notice at a cursory glance. This is why NZ First and Labour can work together comfortably. And why they also can work in with the Greens as well.

        And this is why National, being the largest party sold out to neo liberalism is so antagonistic to Peters and NZ First, – the duplicity of which they both insult Peters/ NZ First , – yet ,- if push comes to shove will become all smarmy and consider them for political partners.

        Something that NZ First and Peters would never consider after 3 decades of Nationals neo liberal rorting.

        • Dennis Frank 10.3.1.1
          24 October 2018 at 4:16 pm

          Yeah it was Trotter, I remember that one. Often called `the caring conservative’, that strand of the NP tradition that Winston represents. Your analysis seems accurate as to why he does pragmatic support of Labour where common ground can be established. Commentators who have framed this as a leftist stance in the past are just doing spin. Winston would be quick to reject that labelling. He uses nationalism. A rightist ideology from the 19th century.

          • Kahu 10.3.1.1.1
            24 October 2018 at 8:54 pm

            She’d be my vote for next leader of NZF but sadly it seems Shane Jones parachuted in for that. Nationalism is not inherently rightwing. You can be a Left-Nationalist or a Right-Nationalist.

        • Matthew Whitehead 10.3.1.2
          24 October 2018 at 7:01 pm

          Trotter is a left-wing conservative. NZF are centrist conservatives. Of course he sees in NZF the things he liked in old-school Labour.

          This “prominent commentator” is the same tyre fire who supported the “free speech coalition” to promote neo-nazis that didn’t do anything to support actual free speech from people like Renae Maihi.

          • Kahu 10.3.1.2.1
            24 October 2018 at 8:59 pm

            He’s fallen a long way from his Socialist Action League Days, now a useful idiot for the establishment, unfortunately Bryce Edwards is following the same trajectory from his Revolution Group days to sellout apologist for status-quo.

      • veutoviper 10.3.2
        24 October 2018 at 2:53 pm

        If they are reluctant, why did they choose to go with Labour?

        Sorry Matthew, but your bias shows through. Like Cindy and OWT (and others), I believe the current arrangements are working well.

        For most of this century, I split my votes Labour/Green until 2017 when I two ticked Labour.

        I have no regrets on that decision and have yet to be convinced to reinvest a vote in the Greens, who I think still have a lot to learn about the realities of actually being part of government. I am trying to stay open minded and this may change by 2020 but I will wait and see. But quite frankly, if there was an election tomorrow I would either two tick Labour – or if needed, probably split vote Labour/NZF.

        • Carolyn_Nth 10.3.2.1
          24 October 2018 at 3:29 pm

          Reluctant because Peter’s home team, the Nats, have constantly worked to undermine him and get him out of politics. NZF is not a left wing party, but they do not like the current neoliberal frame of the Nats.

          • WILD KATIPO 10.3.2.1.1
            24 October 2018 at 4:11 pm

            [ but they do not like the current neoliberal frame of the Nats. ]

            And that’s good enough for me.

            • Carolyn_Nth 10.3.2.1.1.1
              24 October 2018 at 4:20 pm

              Well, the neoliberal frame is more embraced by the urban Nats. NZF is more rural, capitalist conservative. And that’s a fault line down the centre of NZ’s right wing.

              • WILD KATIPO …
                24 October 2018 at 4:44 pm

                Well yes you could be quite right, and while I support a fair amount of ‘left’ type policy’s, I don’t tend to support identity politics. The fault line for me was the historical line drawn in 1984, … as it seems it was for Peters and many others.

                I can think of no other outside of Jim Anderton that has campaigned so vigorously against neo liberalism and for so long as Winston Peters. Its a shame Anderton didn’t live to see this time.

                I see elements of conservatism in NZ First , – but I also see plenty of the old social democracy too. And that has nothing to do with neo liberalism. And I think that is also why NZ First , Labour and the Greens can work quite amiably together. I think its a great win / win combination.

              • Kahu …
                24 October 2018 at 9:08 pm

                He’s fallen a long way from his Socialist Action League Days, now a useful idiot for the establishment, unfortunately Bryce Edwards is following the same trajectory from his Revolution Group days to sellout apologist for status-quo.

          • veutoviper 10.3.2.1.2
            24 October 2018 at 4:28 pm

            The Nat Party of 25 – 35 years ago, when Peters was one, was a very different beast to what the Nat Party has morphed into today.

            I had many dealings with Peters over the intervening years when I did stints working in or close to Parliament, and IMO Peters has remained more true to the old style party.

            OTOH the NZF Party and Peters have also morphed. A lot of people seem to have a blind spot and still want to see NZF as an out of touch party of oldies. In fact, as per WK’s comments at 10.3.1, NZF has actually reinvented itself quietly behind the scenes over the last few years, during and since Peters’ three years in the wilderness (2008 – 2011) . There seems to be a very strong structure behind the scenes and a much younger membership now than many people realise.

            ‘Denial’ is not just a river etc, and my perception (rightly or wrongly) is that quite a number of Green Party members in particular are stuck in that mode when it comes to NZF – as per Matthew’s comment above.

            I am quite surprised (pleasantly) by the change in tone of the comments here on this post, compared to the tone of comments on similar posts just a year ago.

            • veutoviper 10.3.2.1.2.1
              24 October 2018 at 4:47 pm

              Addendum to the above.

              Oh dear. I have just seen your (Carolyn Nth) comment at 10.5.

              My first reaction is that is exactly the type of comment that abounded here 12 months ago that I was indirectly referring to in my last sentence above – ie comments where Green members constantly blamed Labour voters for the drop in support for the GP rather than countenance the possibility that the drop may have arisen due to a bad decision within the GP itself.

              Those types of comments and GP tribalism at that time are exactly why I did not vote Green last year, and will not until I see more maturity on the part of the GP and its members.

              WeTheBeetle says it clearly if bluntly in his/her last sentence at 11.

        • Matthew Whitehead 10.3.2.2
          24 October 2018 at 7:35 pm

          Reluctant doesn’t mean they’re not part of our bloc right now. It means they’re not natural or permanent allies like Labour is to the Greens and vice-versa, and that they could leave our bloc and favour National at any point that it suited them to. It also doesn’t mean they aren’t blocking policies we would want. (Luckily for all of us, National are a mess, have made no efforts to establish a positive working relationship with Peters or his party or select someone capable of doing so, and haven’t understood that they need to make more attractive offers than Labour due to their lower economic compatibility with New Zealand First)

          As to why we should want NZF to be an unnecessary element for Labour to govern: They want to cut taxes rather than sustainably fund things, impacting Labour’s ability to pivot away from its straightjacket approach to the BRRs, they oppose protecting queer rights and increasing the refugee quota, they oppose further electoral reform, ending onshore extraction of fossil fuels, they want over-investment in the military and jails, and boy could I go on.

          I have no problem with other people voting Labour and being satisfied with their choice, but convincing yourself that you haven’t paid a price to get New Zealand First’s support that you should want to avoid is bizarre. (Unless of course you’re a conservative left-winger, in which case we have a stark difference of opinion and you are probably enthusiastic about having NZF in coalition)

          • Kahu 10.3.2.2.1
            24 October 2018 at 9:14 pm

            I think is NZF is pragmatic and would trade a higher refugee intake for a lower economic migrant intake. NZF is right to take our defence seriously. They chose to support a party with policy to reduce number of inmates & cancel a billion dollar superprison over one doing the opposite. They traded as pragmatists that aspect of strong on law & order for another aspect …boosting the number of police. How do they oppose protecting gay rights. no where have I seen NZF policy to overthorow gay marriage/civil unions or outlaw homosexuality. Stop being ridiculous.

          • patricia bremner 10.3.2.2.2
            25 October 2018 at 1:33 am

            I am old, and I remember Winston’s fight against the perfidy of rich listers in the wine box saga. He exposed the crooked use of tax havens and the dodgy behaviour using the Cook Islands. (Fay &Richwhite) Who went on to Ireland
            With more support we would not have had the Monsica case. He is honest, and many times the DP machine has worked to malign him.
            Don’t you think it was strange that his Super over payments were discovered at a time that could have been embarrassing?? Luckily he took his partner with him and filled all papers. NOT trying to get extra funds!!
            In the resulting inquiry it was admitted that a data entry was incorrect. DP???
            Did Paula hope to use that at a pinch?? We can only surmise, but given her record nothing would surprise…. BUT shortly after, she was off WINZ.
            So does that make me a “conservative Labour supporter?” No ofcourse not!!
            I just take as I find, and I know Winston has NZ’s’ best interests at heart.
            Some members of NZ First are very conservative, I give you that.

    • JanM 10.4
      24 October 2018 at 9:55 am

      Well said, WeTheBleeple, and Cinnie too!
      I think this coalition government is working very hard and showing great wisdom in the way they are working to try and right all the wrongs that have been visited on us. There is no point at all in going farther and faster than most in our society can handle – that would probably result in societal destabilisation and a one term government. Then where would we all be?

      • WILD KATIPO 10.4.1
        24 October 2018 at 2:15 pm

        Back to the era of Roger Douglas and Ruth Richardson and the colossal damage and upheaval they caused. To unpick that damage , change must be slow and steady and methodical , though many would like to see change overnight.

    • Carolyn_Nth 10.5
      24 October 2018 at 3:31 pm

      Well, if more in Labour could get over their tribalism, and stop resenting and marginalising the GP, maybe the left could be more united.

      • Dennis Frank 10.5.1
        24 October 2018 at 4:07 pm

        I would agree with that, if the GP were really left. If GP members who are motivated by our common interests pulled out, leaving only those who are partisan, the GP wouldn’t ever make the 5% threshold again. Better that we don’t fall into the old partisan trap, focus on what we do actually share…

    • patricia bremner 10.6
      25 October 2018 at 1:01 am

      1000+

  11. WeTheBleeple 11
    24 October 2018 at 7:47 am

    Thank you for pointing out yet another exemplary person working for us.

    I’ve not voted NZ First but if the greens keep insisting on shoving Winston out I’ll campaign for Winston.

    The number of greens I’ve met who know squat about ecology, other than some bumper sticker quotes…

    I’m very Green, and wont have a bar of them till they learn to play with the other kids.

  12. cleangreen 12
    24 October 2018 at 8:21 am

    Maybe this will make BM happy.

    Now that the warning that Winston Peters had sent us at the time of his joining the labour coalition, when he warned that “soon the beginning of GFC would come” is now finally here; – so how are we going to cope with the ‘reliance of cheap money’ from China?

    Thank God we have Winston Peters here among us today, as he is the only one with history to recall how to tackle this.

    China freely prints free money for it’s own global investments and we are now addicted to their money.

    http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/tag/2018

    Billionaire Carl Icahn told CNBC on Tuesday there are too many exotic, leveraged products for investors to trade, and one day these securities are going to blow up the market.

  13. Pete 13
    24 October 2018 at 9:20 am

    The perceptions resulting from relatively superficial events get to be critical. Mary and Joe Bloggs having the confidence to say “Yeah, they’re going okay. I’d support them,” can be destroyed very easily.

    Like behaviour and events such as those around Clare Curran and Meka Whaitiri. Joe and Mary go to work and around the morning tea cuppa someone says smething nasty and the impression walks out the door to all over.

    Most people simply want competence. One yobbo out of a crowd of 20,000 doing something dumb will get the attention. When even good, sound ideas and behaviour are attacked, one MP doing something dumb is manna. The good efforts of the mass can be sunk without trace in moments with the residual effects lasting for years.

    • Dennis Frank 13.1
      24 October 2018 at 9:55 am

      “Most people simply want competence.” Probably the key point in regard to the future of the coalition! Would we be likely to get it from a real Labour-led govt? Unlikely.

      Provisionally, an impartial appraisal of current Labour ministers in respect of portfolio performance and delivery on promises would not produce a report card that impressed many – however some seem to be trending well. On a good day I’d give Labour 6/10 and the coalition 7.5, on a bad day I’d compare either with how well National are providing good competition at the time. By that I mean who’s currently looking better, dumb or dumber?

  14. SaveNZ 14
    24 October 2018 at 10:36 am

    Good news. Also I seldom watch MSM but saw Newshub last night.

    Jacinda and Andrew came across really well, sincere on the $$$ for MP’s and reforming the donations system, which clearly needs major reform aka ban political donations before NZ turns even more corrupt than we already are!

    The amount it would take for the public to fund political parties, is minuscule like $10 million every 3 years, in the context of all the other routs like America’s cup for $200 million plus that apparently we need and they can’t use private money to fund (even though it is a billionaire sport???)

    Noticed that Natz Goodfellow was there spinning. What a joke if he’s investigating the complaints from women against Ross and reforming Natz against women, as a little bird rumour is that he has been in trouble for beating up his wife. No charges of course and of course might not be true at all, Ieave it up to someone else to investigate that one. Go figure. With twists like that, no wonder the Natz are in decline.

  15. Aaron 15
    24 October 2018 at 2:53 pm

    Thankyou! – finally a blog that discusses that fact that the National Party vote represents the entire right wing vote and only looks big because there are no other viable right wing parties to shave their vote.

    I’ve been leaving comments for ages about this issue but I’m too unimportant for anyone to take any notice. Thank god an actual blogger has spotted this issue. Hopefully others pick up on it now.

  16. WeTheBleeple 16
    25 October 2018 at 6:41 am

    I enjoyed throwing a cat among the pigeons yesterday. I called out the Greens for being antisocial pedantics. It was duly noted, my sentiments are widely understood. I was also calling out anyone/everyone who is merely complaining, rather than rolling their sleeves up. Doing nothing but bitch and moan is current National territory.

    Green members responded with counters, rather than seeing the pattern of general feeling they are leaving behind them, they doubled down on what’s wrong with Winston. To be honest you did well I was expecting some of your ferals to come out of the woodwork.

    Please believe the rest of us in that we understand your frustration. Nothing seems to be moving fast enough but history has proven those making sudden large scale change typically disappear. Humankind unfortunately knows little of recalling history and we love ‘the next thing’. The market is full of instagram idiots influencing immature idolisers…

    We do NOT want this instant shit mentality in Government. That’s a National attribute. We want slow steady change where business gets dragged kicking and screaming with us. We can all help each other we’ve just been fractured. Imagine if we leapt on and financially backed some of the hair brained shit people have come up with for carbon capture.

    You know, I know, plant trees, restore topsoil, divest from oil and destructive ag.

    Too little too late? Hell, we’ve all seen too little too late for our entire lives. Yes it’s frustrating but the alternative is knee jerk instability. And yes, we’re all aware the status quo stifles progress at every turn. ALL of us know this. You aint special.

    You want more done roll your sleeves up and do it.

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    Buzz from the Beehive Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones relishes spatting and eagerly takes issue with environmentalists who criticise his enthusiasm for resource development. He relishes helping the fishing industry too. And so today, while the media are making much of the latest culling in the public service to ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    1 day ago

  • Again, hate crimes are not necessarily terrorism.
    Having written, taught and worked for the US government on issues involving unconventional warfare and terrorism for 30-odd years, two things irritate me the most when the subject is discussed in public. The first is the Johnny-come-lately academics-turned-media commentators who … Continue reading → ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    1 day ago

  • Despair – construction consenting edition
    Eric Crampton writes – Kainga Ora is the government’s house building agency. It’s been building a lot of social housing. Kainga Ora has its own (but independent) consenting authority, Consentium. It’s a neat idea. Rather than have to deal with building consents across each different territorial authority, Kainga Ora ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    1 day ago

  • Coalition promises – will the Govt keep the commitment to keep Kiwis equal before the law?
    Muriel Newman writes – The Coalition Government says it is moving with speed to deliver campaign promises and reverse the damage done by Labour. One of their key commitments is to “defend the principle that New Zealanders are equal before the law.” To achieve this, they have pledged they “will not advance ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    1 day ago

  • An impermanent public service is a guarantee of very little else but failure
    Chris Trotter writes –  The absence of anything resembling a fightback from the public servants currently losing their jobs is interesting. State-sector workers’ collective fatalism in the face of Coalition cutbacks indicates a surprisingly broad acceptance of impermanence in the workplace. Fifty years ago, lay-offs in the thousands ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    1 day ago

  • What happens after the war – Mariupol
    Mariupol, on the Azov Sea coast, was one of the first cities to suffer almost complete destruction after the start of the Ukraine War started in late February 2022. We remember the scenes of absolute destruction of the houses and city structures. The deaths of innocent civilians – many of ...
    Open ParachuteBy Ken
    1 day ago

  • Babies and benefits – no good news
    Lindsay Mitchell writes – Ten years ago, I wrote the following in a Listener column: Every year around one in five new-born babies will be reliant on their caregivers benefit by Christmas. This pattern has persisted from at least 1993. For Maori the number jumps to over one in three.  ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    1 day ago

  • Should the RBNZ be looking through climate inflation?
    Climate change is expected to generate more and more extreme events, delivering a sort of structural shock to inflation that central banks will have to react to as if they were short-term cyclical issues. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāMy pick of the six newsey things to know from Aotearoa’s ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 day ago

  • Bernard's pick 'n' mix of the news links
    The top six news links I’ve seen elsewhere in the last 24 hours, as of 9:16 am on Thursday, April 18 are:Housing: Tauranga residents living in boats, vans RNZ Checkpoint Louise TernouthHousing: Waikato councillor says wastewater plant issues could hold up Sleepyhead building a massive company town Waikato Times Stephen ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 day ago

  • Gordon Campbell on the public sector carnage, and misogyny as terrorism
    It’s a simple deal. We pay taxes in order to finance the social services we want and need. The carnage now occurring across the public sector though, is breaking that contract. Over 3,000 jobs have been lost so far. Many are in crucial areas like Education where the impact of ...
    Gordon CampbellBy lyndon
    1 day ago

  • Meeting the Master Baiters
    Hi,A friend had their 40th over the weekend and decided to theme it after Curb Your Enthusiasm fashion icon Susie Greene. Captured in my tiny kitchen before I left the house, I ending up evoking a mix of old lesbian and Hillary Clinton — both unintentional.Me vs Hillary ClintonIf you’re ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    1 day ago

  • How extreme was the Earth's temperature in 2023
    This is a re-post from Andrew Dessler at the Climate Brink blog In 2023, the Earth reached temperature levels unprecedented in modern times. Given that, it’s reasonable to ask: What’s going on? There’s been lots of discussions by scientists about whether this is just the normal progression of global warming or if something ...
    Skeptical Science
    2 days ago

  • Backbone, revisited
    The schools are on holiday and the sun is shining in the seaside village and all day long I have been seeing bunches of bikes; Mums, Dads, teens and toddlers chattering, laughing, happy, having a bloody great time together. Cheers, AT, for the bits of lane you’ve added lately around the ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    2 days ago

  • Ministers are not above the law
    Today in our National-led authoritarian nightmare: Shane Jones thinks Ministers should be above the law: New Zealand First MP Shane Jones is accusing the Waitangi Tribunal of over-stepping its mandate by subpoenaing a minister for its urgent hearing on the Oranga Tamariki claim. The tribunal is looking into the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago

  • What’s the outfit you can hear going down the gurgler? Probably it’s David Parker’s Oceans Sec...
    Buzz from the Beehive Point  of Order first heard of the Oceans Secretariat in June 2021, when David Parker (remember him?) announced a multi-agency approach to protecting New Zealand’s marine ecosystems and fisheries. Parker (holding the Environment, and Oceans and Fisheries portfolios) broke the news at the annual Forest & ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    2 days ago

  • Will politicians let democracy die in the darkness?
    Bryce Edwards writes  – Politicians across the political spectrum are implicated in the New Zealand media’s failing health. Either through neglect or incompetent interventions, successive governments have failed to regulate, foster, and allow a healthy Fourth Estate that can adequately hold politicians and the powerful to account. ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    2 days ago

  • Matt Doocey doubles down on trans “healthcare”
    Citizen Science writes –  Last week saw two significant developments in the debate over the treatment of trans-identifying children and young people – the release in Britain of the final report of Dr Hilary Cass’s review into gender healthcare, and here in New Zealand, the news that the ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    2 days ago

  • A TikTok Prime Minister.
    One night while sleeping in my bed I had a beautiful dreamThat all the people of the world got together on the same wavelengthAnd began helping one anotherNow in this dream, universal love was the theme of the dayPeace and understanding and it happened this wayAfter such an eventful day ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    2 days ago

  • Texas Lessons
    This is a guest post by Oscar Simms who is a housing activist, volunteer for the Coalition for More Homes, and was the Labour Party candidate for Auckland Central at the last election. ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    2 days ago

  • Bernard's pick 'n' mix of the news links at 6:06 am
    The top six news links I’ve seen elsewhere in the last 24 hours as of 6:06 am on Wednesday, April 17 are:Must read: Secrecy shrouds which projects might be fast-tracked RNZ Farah HancockScoop: Revealed: Luxon has seven staffers working on social media content - partly paid for by taxpayer Newshub ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago

  • Fighting poverty on the holiday highway
    Turning what Labour called the “holiday highway” into a four-lane expressway from Auckland to Whangarei could bring at least an economic benefit of nearly two billion a year for Northland each year. And it could help bring an end to poverty in one of New Zealand’s most deprived regions. The ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    3 days ago

  • Bernard's six-stack of substacks at 6:26 pm
    Tonight’s six-stack includes: launching his substack with a bunch of his previous documentaries, including this 1992 interview with Dame Whina Cooper. and here crew give climate activists plenty to do, including this call to submit against the Fast Track Approvals bill. writes brilliantly here on his substack ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago

  • At a glance – Is the science settled?
    On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
    Skeptical Science
    3 days ago

  • Apposite Quotations.
    How Long Is Long Enough? Gaza under Israeli bombardment, July 2014. This posting is exclusive to Bowalley Road. ...
    Bowalley Road
    3 days ago

  • What’s a life worth now?
    You're in the mall when you hear it: some kind of popping sound in the distance, kids with fireworks, maybe. But then a moment of eerie stillness is followed by more of the fireworks sound and there’s also screaming and shrieking and now here come people running for their lives.Does ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    3 days ago

  • Howling at the Moon
    Karl du Fresne writes –  There’s a crisis in the news media and the media are blaming it on everyone except themselves. Culpability is being deflected elsewhere – mainly to the hapless Minister of Communications, Melissa Lee, and the big social media platforms that are accused of hoovering ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago

  • Newshub is Dead.
    I don’t normally send out two newsletters in a day but I figured I’d say something about… the news. If two newsletters is a bit much then maybe just skip one, I don’t want to overload people. Alternatively if you’d be interested in sometimes receiving multiple, smaller updates from me, ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago

  • Seymour is chuffed about cutting early-learning red tape – but we hear, too, that Jones has loose...
    Buzz from the Beehive David Seymour and Winston Peters today signalled that at least two ministers of the Crown might be in Wellington today. Seymour (as Associate Minister of Education) announced the removal of more red tape, this time to make it easier for new early learning services to be ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    3 days ago

  • Bryce Edwards: Will politicians let democracy die in the darkness?
    Politicians across the political spectrum are implicated in the New Zealand media’s failing health. Either through neglect or incompetent interventions, successive governments have failed to regulate, foster, and allow a healthy Fourth Estate that can adequately hold politicians and the powerful to account. Our political system is suffering from the ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    3 days ago

  • Was Hawkesby entirely wrong?
    David Farrar  writes –  The Broadcasting Standards Authority ruled: Comments by radio host Kate Hawkesby suggesting Māori and Pacific patients were being prioritised for surgery due to their ethnicity were misleading and discriminatory, the Broadcasting Standards Authority has found. It is a fact such patients are prioritised. ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago

  • PRC shadow looms as the Solomons head for election
    PRC and its proxies in Solomons have been preparing for these elections for a long time. A lot of money, effort and intelligence have gone into ensuring an outcome that won’t compromise Beijing’s plans. Cleo Paskall writes – On April 17th the Solomon Islands, a country of ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago

  • Climate Change: Criminal ecocide
    We are in the middle of a climate crisis. Last year was (again) the hottest year on record. NOAA has just announced another global coral bleaching event. Floods are threatening UK food security. So naturally, Shane Jones wants to make it easier to mine coal: Resources Minister Shane Jones ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago

  • Is saving one minute of a politician's time worth nearly $1 billion?
    Is speeding up the trip to and from Wellington airport by 12 minutes worth spending up more than $10 billion? Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The six news items that stood out to me in the last day to 8:26 am today are:The Lead: Transport Minister Simeon Brown announced ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago

  • Long Tunnel or Long Con?
    Yesterday it was revealed that Transport Minister had asked Waka Kotahi to look at the options for a long tunnel through Wellington. State Highway 1 (SH1) through Wellington City is heavily congested at peak times and while planning continues on the duplicate Mt Victoria Tunnel and Basin Reserve project, the ...
    Greater AucklandBy Matt L
    3 days ago

  • Smoke And Mirrors.
    You're a fraud, and you know itBut it's too good to throw it all awayAnyone would do the sameYou've got 'em goingAnd you're careful not to show itSometimes you even fool yourself a bitIt's like magicBut it's always been a smoke and mirrors gameAnyone would do the sameForty six billion ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago

  • What is Mexico doing about climate change?
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections The June general election in Mexico could mark a turning point in ensuring that the country’s climate policies better reflect the desire of its citizens to address the climate crisis, with both leading presidential candidates expressing support for renewable energy. Mexico is the ...
    Skeptical Science
    4 days ago

  • State of humanity, 2024
    2024, it feels, keeps presenting us with ever more challenges, ever more dismay.Do you give up yet? It seems to ask.No? How about this? Or this?How about this?When I say 2024 I really mean the state of humanity in 2024.Saturday night, we watched Civil War because that is one terrifying cliff we've ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    4 days ago

  • Govt’s Wellington tunnel vision aims to ease the way to the airport (but zealous promoters of cycl...
    Buzz from the Beehive A pet project and governmental tunnel vision jump out from the latest batch of ministerial announcements. The government is keen to assure us of its concern for the wellbeing of our pets. It will be introducing pet bonds in a change to the Residential Tenancies Act ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago

  • The case for cultural connectedness
    A recent report generated from a Growing Up in New Zealand (GUiNZ) survey of 1,224 rangatahi Māori aged 11-12 found: Cultural connectedness was associated with fewer depression symptoms, anxiety symptoms and better quality of life. That sounds cut and dry. But further into the report the following appears: Cultural connectedness is ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago

  • Useful context on public sector job cuts
    David Farrar writes –    The Herald reports: From the gory details of job-cuts news, you’d think the public service was being eviscerated.   While the media’s view of the cuts is incomplete, it’s also true that departments have been leaking the particulars faster than a Wellington ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago

  • Gordon Campbell On When Racism Comes Disguised As Anti-racism
    Remember the good old days, back when New Zealand had a PM who could think and speak calmly and intelligently in whole sentences without blustering? Even while Iran’s drones and missiles were still being launched, Helen Clark was live on TVNZ expertly summing up the latest crisis in the Middle ...
    Gordon CampbellBy lyndon
    4 days ago

  • Govt ignored economic analysis of smokefree reversal
    Costello did not pass on analysis of the benefits of the smokefree reforms to Cabinet, emphasising instead the extra tax revenues of repealing them. Photo: Hagen Hopkins, Getty Images TL;DR: The six news items that stood out to me at 7:26 am today are:The Lead: Casey Costello never passed on ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago

  • True Blue.
    True loveYou're the one I'm dreaming ofYour heart fits me like a gloveAnd I'm gonna be true blueBaby, I love youI’ve written about the job cuts in our news media last week. The impact on individuals, and the loss to Aotearoa of voices covering our news from different angles.That by ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago

  • Who is running New Zealand’s foreign policy?
    While commentators, including former Prime Minister Helen Clark, are noting a subtle shift in New Zealand’s foreign policy, which now places more emphasis on the United States, many have missed a key element of the shift. What National said before the election is not what the government is doing now. ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    5 days ago

  • 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #15
    A listing of 31 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, April 7, 2024 thru Sat, April 13, 2024. Story of the week Our story of the week is about adults in the room setting terms and conditions of ...
    Skeptical Science
    5 days ago

  • Feline Friends and Fragile Fauna The Complexities of Cats in New Zealand’s Conservation Efforts

    Cats, with their independent spirit and beguiling purrs, have captured the hearts of humans for millennia. In New Zealand, felines are no exception, boasting the highest national cat ownership rate globally [definition cat nz cat foundation]. An estimated 1.134 million pet cats grace Kiwi households, compared to 683,000 dogs ...

    Gareth’s WorldBy admin
    5 days ago

  • Or is that just they want us to think?
    Nice guy, that Peter Williams. Amiable, a calm air of no-nonsense capability, a winning smile. Everything you look for in a TV presenter and newsreader.I used to see him sometimes when I went to TVNZ to be a talking head or a panellist and we would yarn. Nice guy, that ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    5 days ago

  • Fact Brief – Did global warming stop in 1998?
    Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. This fact brief was written by Sue Bin Park in collaboration with members from our Skeptical Science team. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline. Did global warming stop in ...
    Skeptical Science
    6 days ago

  • Arguing over a moot point.
    I have been following recent debates in the corporate and social media about whether it is a good idea for NZ to join what is known as “AUKUS Pillar Two.” AUKUS is the Australian-UK-US nuclear submarine building agreement in which … Continue reading → ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    6 days ago

  • $41m to support clean energy in South East Asia
    New Zealand is demonstrating its commitment to reducing global greenhouse emissions, and supporting clean energy transition in South East Asia, through a contribution of NZ$41 million (US$25 million) in climate finance to the Asian Development Bank (ADB)-led Energy Transition Mechanism (ETM). Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Climate Change Minister Simon Watts announced ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 hour ago

  • Minister releases Fast-track stakeholder list
    The Government is today releasing a list of organisations who received letters about the Fast-track applications process, says RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop. “Recently Ministers and agencies have received a series of OIA requests for a list of organisations to whom I wrote with information on applying to have a ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 hours ago

  • Judicial appointments announced
    Attorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Wellington Barrister David Jonathan Boldt as a Judge of the High Court, and the Honourable Justice Matthew Palmer as a Judge of the Court of Appeal. Justice Boldt graduated with an LLB from Victoria University of Wellington in 1990, and also holds ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 hours ago

  • Education Minister heads to major teaching summit in Singapore
    Education Minister Erica Stanford will lead the New Zealand delegation at the 2024 International Summit on the Teaching Profession (ISTP) held in Singapore. The delegation includes representatives from the Post Primary Teachers’ Association (PPTA) Te Wehengarua and the New Zealand Educational Institute (NZEI) Te Riu Roa.  The summit is co-hosted ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 hours ago

  • Value of stopbank project proven during cyclone
    A stopbank upgrade project in Tairawhiti partly funded by the Government has increased flood resilience for around 7000ha of residential and horticultural land so far, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones today attended a dawn service in Gisborne to mark the end of the first stage of the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 hours ago

  • Anzac commemorations, Türkiye relationship focus of visit
    Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters will represent the Government at Anzac Day commemorations on the Gallipoli Peninsula next week and engage with senior representatives of the Turkish government in Istanbul.    “The Gallipoli campaign is a defining event in our history. It will be a privilege to share the occasion ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 hours ago

  • Minister to Europe for OECD meeting, Anzac Day
    Science, Innovation and Technology and Defence Minister Judith Collins will next week attend the OECD Science and Technology Ministerial conference in Paris and Anzac Day commemorations in Belgium. “Science, innovation and technology have a major role to play in rebuilding our economy and achieving better health, environmental and social outcomes ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    8 hours ago

  • Comprehensive Partnership the goal for NZ and the Philippines
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr.  The Prime Minister was accompanied by MP Paulo Garcia, the first Filipino to be elected to a legislature outside the Philippines. During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon and President Marcos Jr discussed opportunities to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    19 hours ago

  • Government commits $20m to Westport flood protection
    The Government has announced that $20 million in funding will be made available to Westport to fund much needed flood protection around the town. This measure will significantly improve the resilience of the community, says Local Government Minister Simeon Brown. “The Westport community has already been allocated almost $3 million ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • Taupō takes pole position
    The Government is proud to support the first ever Repco Supercars Championship event in Taupō as up to 70,000 motorsport fans attend the Taupō International Motorsport Park this weekend, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. “Anticipation for the ITM Taupō Super400 is huge, with tickets and accommodation selling out weeks ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • Cost of living support for low-income homeowners
    Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced an increase to the Rates Rebate Scheme, putting money back into the pockets of low-income homeowners.  “The coalition Government is committed to bringing down the cost of living for New Zealanders. That includes targeted support for those Kiwis who are doing things tough, such ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • Government backing mussel spat project
    The Coalition Government is investing in a project to boost survival rates of New Zealand mussels and grow the industry, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones has announced. “This project seeks to increase the resilience of our mussels and significantly boost the sector’s productivity,” Mr Jones says. “The project - ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • Government focused on getting people into work
    Benefit figures released today underscore the importance of the Government’s plan to rebuild the economy and have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker Support, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “Benefit numbers are still significantly higher than when National was last in government, when there was about 70,000 fewer ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • Clean energy key driver to reducing emissions
    The Government’s commitment to doubling New Zealand’s renewable energy capacity is backed by new data showing that clean energy has helped the country reach its lowest annual gross emissions since 1999, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. New Zealand’s latest Greenhouse Gas Inventory (1990-2022) published today, shows gross emissions fell ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • Earthquake-prone buildings review brought forward
    The Government is bringing the earthquake-prone building review forward, with work to start immediately, and extending the deadline for remediations by four years, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “Our Government is focused on rebuilding the economy. A key part of our plan is to cut red tape that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Thailand and NZ to agree to Strategic Partnership
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and his Thai counterpart, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, have today agreed that New Zealand and the Kingdom of Thailand will upgrade the bilateral relationship to a Strategic Partnership by 2026. “New Zealand and Thailand have a lot to offer each other. We have a strong mutual desire to build ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Government consults on extending coastal permits for ports
    RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop and Transport Minister Simeon Brown have today announced the Coalition Government’s intention to extend port coastal permits for a further 20 years, providing port operators with certainty to continue their operations. “The introduction of the Resource Management Act in 1991 required ports to obtain coastal ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Inflation coming down, but more work to do
    Today’s announcement that inflation is down to 4 per cent is encouraging news for Kiwis, but there is more work to be done - underlining the importance of the Government’s plan to get the economy back on track, acting Finance Minister Chris Bishop says. “Inflation is now at 4 per ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • School attendance restored as a priority in health advice
    Refreshed health guidance released today will help parents and schools make informed decisions about whether their child needs to be in school, addressing one of the key issues affecting school attendance, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. In recent years, consistently across all school terms, short-term illness or medical reasons ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Unnecessary bureaucracy cut in oceans sector
    Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones is streamlining high-level oceans management while maintaining a focus on supporting the sector’s role in the export-led recovery of the economy. “I am working to realise the untapped potential of our fishing and aquaculture sector. To achieve that we need to be smarter with ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Patterson promoting NZ’s wool sector at International Congress
    Associate Agriculture Minister Mark Patterson is speaking at the International Wool Textile Organisation Congress in Adelaide, promoting New Zealand wool, and outlining the coalition Government’s support for the revitalisation the sector.    "New Zealand’s wool exports reached $400 million in the year to 30 June 2023, and the coalition Government ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • Removing red tape to help early learners thrive
    The Government is making legislative changes to make it easier for new early learning services to be established, and for existing services to operate, Associate Education Minister David Seymour says. The changes involve repealing the network approval provisions that apply when someone wants to establish a new early learning service, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • RMA changes to cut coal mining consent red tape
    Changes to the Resource Management Act will align consenting for coal mining to other forms of mining to reduce barriers that are holding back economic development, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The inconsistent treatment of coal mining compared with other extractive activities is burdensome red tape that fails to acknowledge ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • McClay reaffirms strong NZ-China trade relationship
    Trade, Agriculture and Forestry Minister Todd McClay has concluded productive discussions with ministerial counterparts in Beijing today, in support of the New Zealand-China trade and economic relationship. “My meeting with Commerce Minister Wang Wentao reaffirmed the complementary nature of the bilateral trade relationship, with our Free Trade Agreement at its ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Prime Minister Luxon acknowledges legacy of Singapore Prime Minister Lee
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon today paid tribute to Singapore’s outgoing Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong.   Meeting in Singapore today immediately before Prime Minister Lee announced he was stepping down, Prime Minister Luxon warmly acknowledged his counterpart’s almost twenty years as leader, and the enduring legacy he has left for Singapore and South East ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • PMs Luxon and Lee deepen Singapore-NZ ties
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. While in Singapore as part of his visit to South East Asia this week, Prime Minister Luxon also met with Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam and will meet with Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong.  During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Antarctica New Zealand Board appointments
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has made further appointments to the Board of Antarctica New Zealand as part of a continued effort to ensure the Scott Base Redevelopment project is delivered in a cost-effective and efficient manner.  The Minister has appointed Neville Harris as a new member of the Board. Mr ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Finance Minister travels to Washington DC
    Finance Minister Nicola Willis will travel to the United States on Tuesday to attend a meeting of the Five Finance Ministers group, with counterparts from Australia, the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom.  “I am looking forward to meeting with our Five Finance partners on how we can work ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Pet bonds a win/win for renters and landlords
    The coalition Government has today announced purrfect and pawsitive changes to the Residential Tenancies Act to give tenants with pets greater choice when looking for a rental property, says Housing Minister Chris Bishop. “Pets are important members of many Kiwi families. It’s estimated that around 64 per cent of New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Long Tunnel for SH1 Wellington being considered
    State Highway 1 (SH1) through Wellington City is heavily congested at peak times and while planning continues on the duplicate Mt Victoria Tunnel and Basin Reserve project, the Government has also asked NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) to consider and provide advice on a Long Tunnel option, Transport Minister Simeon Brown ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • New Zealand condemns Iranian strikes
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Foreign Minister Winston Peters have condemned Iran’s shocking and illegal strikes against Israel.    “These attacks are a major challenge to peace and stability in a region already under enormous pressure," Mr Luxon says.    "We are deeply concerned that miscalculation on any side could ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • Huge interest in Government’s infrastructure plans
    Hundreds of people in little over a week have turned out in Northland to hear Regional Development Minister Shane Jones speak about plans for boosting the regional economy through infrastructure. About 200 people from the infrastructure and associated sectors attended an event headlined by Mr Jones in Whangarei today. Last ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Health Minister thanks outgoing Health New Zealand Chair
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