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Pre-UK election discussion

Written By: - Date published: 6:05 am, June 8th, 2017 - 79 comments
Categories: democratic participation, Politics, uk politics - Tags: ,

A general discussion thread for the lead up to the UK General election. This post will be bumped up daily, and a new one will go up Friday morning for the day of the election itself.

To get us started, here’s Jonathan Pie in fine form.

Update:

79 comments on “Pre-UK election discussion”

  1. Anne 1

    Love his last line as per instructions by Tory Tim and delivered with joyous insincerity:

    Well, the last week of the election is almost upon us and the Conservatives are looking to increase their majority…

  2. weka 2

    On 8 June, voters will go to the polls for perhaps the most important UK general election since 1945. The importance arises in great part from profound differences in economic policy, reflecting different views of the nature and health of the British economy.

    The Conservative manifesto calls for continued austerity, which will tend to slow the economy at a crucial juncture, against the backdrop of Brexit negotiations. Their spending cuts have hurt the most vulnerable and failed to achieve their intended debt and deficit reduction targets.

    In contrast, Labour’s manifesto proposals are much better designed to strengthen and develop the economy and ensure that its benefits are more fairly shared and sustainable, as well as being fiscally responsible and based on sound estimations.

    We point to the proposed increases in investment in the future of the UK and its people, labour market policies geared to decrease inequality and to protect the lower paid and those in insecure work and fair and progressive changes in taxation.

    There is no future for the UK in a race to the bottom, which would only serve to increase social and economic inequality and further damage our social fabric. On the contrary, the UK urgently needs a government committed, as is Labour, to building an economy that really works “for the many, and not only the few”.

    Signed by a very long list of international economists and academics.

    https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/jun/03/the-big-issue-labour-manifesto-what-economy-needs

  3. greywarshark 3

    By the time I have heard him give a couple of his rants I find he has said it all.
    So I’ve got nothing fucking useful to say. Hell I’m even starting to talk like him.
    I have the felling that he really, really doesn’t like Theresa May.

  4. james 4

    Ages ago I predicted a HUGE loss (before the election was called) for Corbyn.

    Time will indeed tell if I was right or not.

    But – going from the poll results – its not looking good for that prediction.

    Guess I cant be right all the time huh.

    Edit – thinking back – I’m pretty sure I went with Hillary for the US as well.

    So – International elections just are not my thing.

    NZ Elections however – Im batting a thousand.

    • weka 4.1

      3 strikes and you’re out 😉

      • Nick 4.1.1

        Nice weka +1

      • james 4.1.2

        I assume that the same logic holds for the people on here that called Labour for the last three elections as well 😉

        • weka 4.1.2.1

          only if they came on site and said that this time they were right 😉 I don’t make predictions myself 🙂

    • It’s certainly harder to tell when you’re not on the ground listening to people and you’re getting everything through the media, or maybe through social media.

      • Kevin 4.2.1

        Exactly.

      • Siobhan 4.2.2

        Maybe it it depends on what you want to believe rather than the source..

        Certainly I have always been a dedicated Corbyn supporter based on his message. And anyone following UK news papers, even the Daily Mail, which, incidentally, I read daily, would have realised that life in the UK has become unnecessarily and vindictively hard, be it in housing, health, employment or welfare.
        Those are issues affecting a broad section of society.
        So, that’s a lot of people who are pretty unhappy,
        Of course they are going to take note of a message of hope and calls for a fair society. And I don’t mean a hollow Obama style ‘Hope’ slogan.
        I mean a comprehensive selection of policies that could actually be delivered by a strong Labour Party.

        When even the Guardian crowed about being biased against Corbyn you have to think…this is a guy who is a real threat to the status quo, maybe I should listen to what he’s actually saying, not what the corporate media are spinning.

    • gsays 4.3

      hi james,
      (Sorry moderator, off topic but brief)..
      I have seen a couple of your comments regarding sport.

      There is a ’77lions v all blacks test on YouTube.
      I watched yesty, my 15 yr old son said that there was more kicking than a game of soccer.
      My observation was how much the game has evolved, the scrums and rucks were brutal and how hard it was to see what penalties the ref was giving.

  5. SpaceMonkey 5

    I watched Jeremy Corbyn and Teresa May over the weekend from the BBC Question Time on Friday and it’s not hard to see why Corbyn is gaining in popularity. Listening to him, he speaks like a human being… compassionate and from the heart. Whereas May appears all soundbites and platitudes… no soul.

  6. Glenn 6

    Can anyone explain why Labour can’t join up with SNP or some other if the Tories win and take over the reins of government? Or isn’t that allowed under FPP?

    Thank goodness we have MMP. Pity we didn’t have a Jonathon Pie type over here.

    • weka 6.1

      As far as I can tell if Cons get less than 50% of seats it’s a hung parliament. If the incumbent govt fails to get confidence from 51% of MPs then Labour will have a crack at it. So they could form a minority govt or a coalition. I’ve been assuming SNP would support Labour, but don’t know what Libdems would do. Previously they’ve gone with Cons and then been hammered at next election. Maybe they sit on cross benches.

      • pete 6.1.1

        Someone on these forum very wisely suggested elsewhere that if Labour managed to put itself into a position to possibly form a government, Labour’s Blairites might immediately jump ship, form a new party and support a tory government.

        But that sounds like the kind of stuff that could spark a civil war.

        • McFlock 6.1.1.1

          Nah, but it’ll probably help devolution…

          Thing is, blairites are at best light conservatives, whereas May is extreme right conservative. If the blairites jump ship, they need to be sure they’ll have good gigs or at least be able to stand as conservatives when they go for reelection.

          I’ve read that if the Conservatives win with only a slight majority, the current conservatives who are a bit light (pretend to care about dead poor people, sort of thing, even if it is “personal choices”) might cross the floor when May wants to do things like a really hard brexit or cut services even more. Any blairites who switch to conservatives will be even less reliable (a traitor once can be a traitor twice).

          I think a couple of years of narrow conservative majority will bed in Corbyn for enough of a majority next time that he can really kick arse, whereas a narrow Labour victory puts the blairites in a position to block socially progressive moves and turn Corbyn into a disappointment (e.g. Obama and Guantanamo, he tried to close it several times but the repubs managed to stop him).

    • One Anonymous Bloke 6.2

      They can. They’d still need a (combined) majority of seats to form a government.

    • pete 6.3

      Since the Brexit vote the SNP is pro independence and that would be too big a liability for Corbyn’s Labour. I think there is also concern that the SNP acts left in the British parliament but support more right leaning policies in the Scottish.

      I’m not so sure Corbyn hasn’t got a chance of winning against liar liar. A record 2m of young voters registered this election and the more he gets hammered by the MSM the better he seems to be doing. I think we maybe in for an amazing surprise.

      Whatever the outcome, NZ Labour should learn some very useful lessons here!

    • Labour could maybe go into coalition with the SNP, if their numbers are good enough for it. The sticking point is the Labour will probably want them to back off a second round at independence in return for concessions on what type of Brexit they negotiate for. (ie. likely a “soft brexit” instead of May’s chaotic hard brexit) Basically, it depends whether Scotland’s objection to hard brexit is real or just pretense. If it’s real, then Labour and the SNP should be able to get a deal. If it’s pretense and it’s actually Independence or Bust, I don’t fancy Labour’s chances, as they’re just as committed to holding on to Scotland as the tories are.

      There’s also the fact that some of the parties, such as the Liberal Democrats, have committed to not going into coalition at all.

      • weka 6.4.1

        So could Labour govern with C and S from SNP and Libdems rather than a coalition? Or have Libdems ruled out C and S too?

        Then there’s Norther Ireland.

        • weka 6.4.1.1

          Also, if the Labour refused to do a deal on independence, why would the SNP not give C and S? Because that would mean the Tories would govern.

      • Armada 6.4.2

        Both Labour and the SNP have said they will not do a coalition. However they are both open to Labour forming a minority government with the non-tory parties committing to “supply”.

        • Bill 6.4.2.1

          No. The other parties wouldn’t be needing to commit to “supply” but are far more likely to be dealing with a Labour government on an issue by issue basis including the passing of the budget. And the budget does not have to pass in its first reading for Labour to remain in government. All they need to do if it doesn’t pass is keep tweaking it ’til it does.

          • weka 6.4.2.1.1

            They’d need supply from someone to get more MPs than the Conservatives and thus be able to form govt, right? (unless they get more MPs than the Cons).

            • Bill 6.4.2.1.1.1

              “Supply” refers to government spending (budgets). “Confidence” refers to votes of confidence or no confidence which are usually tied in with budgets, but that essentially don’t exist in Fixed Term Parliaments seeing as how it takes 2/3rds of parliament voting for dissolution for a government to fall.

      • Bill 6.4.3

        Yes, parties can go into coalition, but they don’t have to because the UK has a fixed term parliaments act which means that whichever party gets ‘the nod’ from 50%+ of the parliament governs for 5 years.

        There is absolutely no need for Confidence and Supply agreements either, because of that same Act. Any party that gave it’s vote to allow another party to form the government would have nothing whatsoever to gain from offering any kind of guarantee on Confidence and Supply.

        Neither Labour nor any other party has “the right” to override the mandate of the Scottish legislature in Holyrood to hold another referendum. (The Holyrood parliament passed the motion.) Yes, the UK Parliament could block a referendum, but that would be madness.

        Corbyn has said he would argue against a referendum, not block it. And the official move to call the referendum (obtaining whatever section flim flam from the UK Parliament) is only going to happen when the terms of BREXIT are known – not before.

        • weka 6.4.3.1

          Ok, so post-election is ‘the nod’ different from C and S? Do you have a more technical term for that?

          • Bill 6.4.3.1.1

            Confidence and Supply is an undertaking to back proposed budgets.

            The parliamentary vote that allows a party to form government is just a vote that allows a party to form government. And that party remains in government for the next five years unless 2/3rds of parliament votes for dissolution.

            Parties that vote to allow (say) Labour to form government are under no obligation whatsoever to approve a Labour budget when it comes to the floor.

            edit – look on it as a discrete vote of confidence as opposed to any ongoing commitment of confidence if you need to.

            • weka 6.4.3.1.1.1

              In which case it could be referred to as the post-election confidence vote?

              • Bill

                The term “support” would be more accurate and useful by my way of thinking, given the (mis)-understandings that accompany the term “confidence”.

        • You seem to have misinterpretted what I was talking about.

          I absolutely agree that it’s both illegal and immoral for any Westminster government to block a move from Holyrood for a referendum on independence. My point was that the SNP has said that their move for another referendum was based on a hard Brexit changing the calculus of whether Scotland stayed in the Union, not purely a desire for independence.

          If that were actually the case, then Holyrood’s plan to call for another referendum should be negotiable to a government willing to do a soft Brexit, which is what Labour explicitly wanted to do anyway.

          And on Labour’s side of the equation, any of the “English” political entities being involved in any deal which actually leads to Scottish independence will cause them to lose a huge amount of face, meaning that it would potentially make any sort of power-sharing arrangement between the SNP and Labour completely unworkable.

          As for simply making a Queen’s speech, installing Labour as a minority government, and then negotiating on all of the rest- well, it’s almost certainly not going to happen now, (It would require the DUP to abstain, basically, and why would they?) but it would probably still require some initial promises that would have needed some sort of reconciliation between the SNP and Labour, which would be possible if they all believe what they’ve been saying in public.

  7. pete 7

    Very funny how all of a sudden Corbyn’s massive lack of support from the PLP has all but vanished. Just listen to this opportunistic Blairite MP who used to stab Corbyn in the back now greasing up to him.

  8. james 8

    My prediction 45 Tories – 33 Labour.

    • garibaldi 8.1

      If the young will get off their butts and vote ,then Corbyn will win. Here’s hoping, for the sake of all of us (including you James).

      • james 8.1.1

        I appreciate your thought.

        • Drowsy M. Kram 8.1.1.1

          My prediction: 43% Conservatives – 37% Labour (weather permitting), which would be a phenomenal result for the ‘unelectable Corbyn’ (here’s hoping Andrew Little and NZ Labour can do as well). May’s expectation of an increased Conservative majority (and mandate for a ‘hard Brexit’) will not be realised.

          “There is one crucial statistic to keep in your mind in the next few days.

          At the last election in 2015 the Conservatives were seven points ahead of Labour in the national vote and that secured them an overall majority of 12 [seats].”

        • In Vino 8.1.1.2

          Will your glass still be half-full, or empty (as usual, after being dropped)?

    • Armada 8.2

      “Opinion polling firm YouGov have raised eyebrows in the run up to Thursday’s poll with the results of their forecast model, which at the time of writing is forecasting that the Conservatives will only win 307 seats. This would deprive them of their parliamentary majority, and leaves open the possibility that Jeremy Corbyn could become Prime Minister if Labour could secure support from the smaller parties in the Commons.”

      https://sluggerotoole.com/2017/06/05/will-yougovs-election-model-be-vindicated-when-the-results-are-in/

  9. Kevin 9

    “He’s not weak, he’s fucking hard”!

    Love it 🙂

    No matter what happens know, May’s long term future is in serious doubt. All her weaknesses have been exposed by a media doing their fucking finally. Who would have thought?

    Even if the Tories win narrowly, I think she is toast.

    Corbyn will cement his credentials as leader and the next few years will be bloody interesting.

    • McFlock 9.1

      Oh, I reckon she’s totally fucked.
      She was after a hard brexit mandate, and it looks like she’ll lose quite a few seats. Even if the Labour poll resurgence doesn’t come through it the FPP seat count (and a swing of that much suggests to me that the tories have lost at least some seats), it’s enough to make her look weak, and politicians (especially tory politicians) prey upon the weak.

      Which means at least her tory plan might be slowed down a bit while she’s distracted by guarding her throne.

  10. 808state 10

    Hope Corbyn wins.

    That is what is so cool about being a nationalist, you get to root for all the underdogs – Trump, Bernie, Le Pen, Farage, Corbyn – and these days they actually have a half chance of decapitating one of the heads of the Globalist hydra.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 10.1

      Corbyn is what you would describe (in your fatuous drivelly witless way) as a Globalist. So is Bernie.

      We can see what kind of politics you really support: that advocated by Trump, Le Pen and Farage.

      • weka 10.1.1

        Their comment was certainly of the this is where I am really at kind. Useful in that sense.

      • SpaceMonkey 10.1.2

        That is true that Corbyn is a globalist… but as dynamics go, he is also representing those opposed to the establishment, regardless of how they’ve come to be there.

        • Bill 10.1.2.1

          Corbyn’s a bit of an internationalist, not in favour of globalisation and definitely not some globalist of the conspiracy nutters imaginations. I mean, you do know that label is from the conspiratorial box of political nomenclature, yes? It doesn’t mean those who favour globalisation, but refers instead to some crack-pot theory about world domination (be it via the UN, Illuminati or whatever).

  11. DS 11

    I think the Tories end up with about a 40 seat majority. The Tories respond by rolling May, and bringing in Boris Johnson before the end of the year.

    • james 11.1

      That cannot be bad – Boris rocks !

    • Armada 11.2

      Boris? Great!
      Scots will vote in ther droves to get away from this cartoon of a Tory. In Northern Ireland Unionists will vote with Sinn Fein to join the Republic.
      Sell any remaining Sterling denominated assets.

  12. weka 12

    Sana Saeed,

    Glad May is openly embracing fascism as opposed to loudly tip-toeing around it.

    In response to this from May,

    Theresa May‏Verified account @theresa_may

    I’m clear: if human rights laws get in the way of tackling extremism and terrorism, we will change those laws to keep British people safe.

  13. Karen 13

    This is clever.

  14. Adrian Thornton 14

    Looks like Diane Abbott is finally being pulled from causing any more damage to Labour….
    http://news.sky.com/story/corbyn-refuses-to-say-abbott-will-keep-job-if-labour-wins-10906460

    They should have done this months ago….in my humble opinion.

  15. Steve Reeves 15

    Wow!!!!

  16. Sanctuary 16

    Well, the Daily Mail has gone completely troppo today (visiting their website is only for the intrepid, brave and those possessed of a strong stomach. You have been warned!).

    No surer evidence that the Tories polling now has them behind Labour. The panic is real.

  17. Adrian Thornton 17

    Seeing a few letters like this one below in The Guardian these days, nice to see people are able to change their minds, still can’t understand who on earth they thought was going to break the neo liberal stalemate that UK politics (and ours btw) had got itself into…but that’s beside the point now.

    “I changed my mind about Corbyn and have gone to thinking that he was unelectable to now thinking that I really hope he gets elected. He kept calm under intense pressure in contrast to May who just gets into more of more of a panic. I know who I’d rather have representing us.

    And, I’m going to do more than just say sorry for all the shit I slung at him earlier: I’m going to vote for him.”

    Turn Labour (NZ) Left!

  18. Ad 18

    If Corbyn’s Labour get close to the same MP numbers as Milliband got, he will have done just fine.

  19. Sanctuary 19

    You know what? I think Corbyn might win.

    Something is happening. Look at this video, and the spontaneous cheering from people across the road. That is what happens when you are on a roll, have all the momentum, and the polls are going your way.

    When you are about to win.

    • Bill 19.1

      I do hope people remember that Corbyn and what he’s standing for wins (has won) regardless of whether the election falls to Labour or not.

    • weka 19.2

      That was nice. I’m just going to enjoy it all for the next couple of days and then get nervous on Friday 😉

    • james 19.3

      I think thats just wishful thinking.

      But lets see tomorrow – Im still predicting a comfortable majority for May – whilst conceding that Corbyn hasnt been (to date) the walking disaster I predicted.

      • Ed 19.3.1

        How condescending of you.
        And aren’t you great to favour wealthy corporations above ordinary citizens….

        • james 19.3.1.1

          No you silly person (Thats condescending).

          Im all for demoracy.

          If Labour win, Ill accept it – But if May wins – I bet you bleat like a goat.

  20. Sanctuary 20

    Last polls show the Tories heading for a 50 seat majority, it all depends on whether or not young people get out and vote.

    http://www.comresglobal.com/pollwatch-lessons-for-labour/

  21. mauī 21

    Send in a photo of your dog at the polling booth says the BBC. [Give it a blue lead so we know you’re voting tory 😆 ]

    Frick’n hell they’ve got the important stuff covered.

  22. Ad 22

    When do we get to start blaming losing on those wastrel young people who don’t vote.
    Fucking young people.
    So young.

  23. swordfish 23

    Call me old-fashioned, but I’m so taken with my own comments from the Mike Smith Post that I’m a-gonna re-post them here

    Now don’t you be calling me a narcissist, y’hear !

    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    Latest polls and some anecdotal evidence from the doorstep are showing a move back to the Tories in Britain

    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    Well, kind of ….. but slightly more complex than that, Mike

    Final Polls (with % point change from previous)

    6–7 Jun BMG/The Herald
    Tory 46% ….. Lab 33% ….. Tory Lead 13%
    (No previous Poll to compare)

    6–7 Jun Survation
    Tory 41% (+ 1) ….. Lab 40% (+ 1) ….. Tory Lead 1% ( = )

    6–7 Jun ICM/The Guardian
    Tory 46% (+ 1) ….. Lab 34% ( = ) ….. Tory Lead 12% (+ 1)

    5–7 Jun YouGov/The Times
    Tory 42% ( = ) ….. Lab 35% (- 3) ….. Tory Lead 7% (+ 3)

    5–7 Jun ComRes/Independent
    Tory 44% (- 3) ….. Lab 34% (- 1) ….. Tory Lead 10% (- 2)

    4–7 Jun Qriously
    Tory 38.5% ….. Lab 41.3% ….. Lab Lead 2.8% (Whoo Hoo !!!)
    (No previous Poll to compare)

    2–7 Jun Panelbase
    Tory 44% ( = ) ….. Lab 36% ( = ) ….. Tory Lead 8% ( = )

    1–7 Jun Kantar Public
    Tory 43% ( = ) ….. Lab 38% (+ 5) ….. Tory Lead 5% (- 5)

    4–6 Jun SurveyMonkey/The Sun
    Tory 42% (- 2) ….. Lab 38% ( = ) ….. Tory Lead 4% (- 2)

    4–6 Jun Opinium
    Tory 43% ( = ) ….. Lab 36% (- 1) ….. Tory Lead 7% (+ 1)

    _____________________________________________________________________________________________________

    swordfish 7.1

    8 June 2017 at 9:32 pm

    Probably a Tory win …..

    But one tiny glimmer of hope …..

    Putting aside the barely known and untested Qriously Poll (with its Lab Lead) ….. the 2 Polls with the flimsiest Tory Leads …..

    Survation …………. Tory Lead 1%
    SurveyMonkey ….. Tory Lead 4%

    ….. were the only Polls to get the 2015 Tory-Lab gap more or less right (they said 6 points – actual gap 6.6)

    All other Pollsters waaay out

    Survation pretty much spot-on with Tory-Lab %s too –

    Survation Final Poll ……… 37% Tory ….. 31% Lab
    2015 Election Result ….. 37.8% Tory ….. 31.2% Lab

  24. swordfish 24

    Anecdotal evidence via Twitter of very high turnout (esp Young)

    Hopefully accurate

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