web analytics

Psephology-o-rama: Hangover nerdery edition

Written By: - Date published: 1:51 pm, September 21st, 2014 - 23 comments
Categories: election 2014 - Tags: ,

polity_square_for_lynnReposted from Polity.

I was really privileged to be able to work with the TV3 election night team last night, providing some quantitative analysis on the results as they came in. One of the things we put together was a tool that could do demographic splits on the results while they were still uploading. I’m reasonably pleased with how the tool performed, in that it let TV3 do first cuts on how the vote came together before other media, and even while the count was still in progress. I mentioned a couple of these results on The Nation this morning.

Now that the battle for election night ratings is over for another three years, here is a table for your entrail-reading pleasure showing the three biggest parties’ vote shares in a few different geographic / demographic segments.

Labour National Greens
Area characteristic 2011 2014 2011 2014 2011 2014
Renters > 50% 41.6 39.7 32.7 34 11.6 11.7
Renters 35 to 50% 30.6 29.1 43.3 43.9 10.3 10
Renters 20 to 35% 22.7 20.7 52.8 53.5 10.4 9.7
Renters < 20% 18.5 16.7 58.7 59.5 11.2 10.1
Maori > 20% 34 34.2 35.4 35.8 8.3 7.9
Pacific > 20% 63.5 60.6 18.4 20.2 4.9 5.4
Asian > 20% 31.5 28.4 48.2 48.8 8.8 9.1
European > 80% 19.8 18.1 55.8 56.8 11.7 10.7
Degrees > 30% 23.1 21.5 51 51.9 16.3 16.3
No quals > 30% 35.9 34.6 37.6 38.7 7.6 7.1
Current students > 20% 30.7 28.4 44.4 44.8 14.3 14.3
Elderly > 25% 23 21.1 51.2 52.6 9.4 8.7
Kids > 25% 41.6 40.8 34.4 35.4 6.6 6.5
Non-religious > 50% 24.5 23 47 47.6 15.5 14.9
Christian > 60% 39.6 37.6 39.6 41.2 6.5 6.4
HH median income < $50k 45.6 45.6 25.5 26.6 8.3 8.2
HH median income $50k to $75k 31.3 29.1 43 43.8 9.7 9.1
HH median income $75k to $100k 21 19.3 55.3 55.9 11 10.4
HH median income > $100k 18.2 16.8 58.2 59.1 14.2 13.8
Auckland 29 26.7 49.7 50.1 9.1 9.3
South Auckland 52.5 50.1 27.6 28.8 4.6 4.9
Wellington 32.7 29.6 40 41.8 16.2 16.3
Christchurch 25 23.2 51.1 51 13 12.6
South Island 25.9 23.9 49.6 50.2 12.5 11.5
North Island 27.3 25.6 47.6 48.4 10 9.7
South Island town 31.4 30.1 41.6 41.8 14.6 13.1
North Island town 27.4 26.3 45.8 46.2 9.7 8.6

Notes

  1. These cuts are based on matching census data to booths, under the maintained assumption that people vote to a booth close to where they live. I realise that assumption is not always true, but it is true on average, which is all you really need to examine the over-time trends above.
  2. The correct interpretation is: “In areas of New Zealand with [area characteristic], the average booth-level party vote for [party] was X% in 2011 and Y% in 2014.”
  3. These data should NOT be interpreted at the individual-level (ie. Any claim about individual people, such “Asian New Zealanders moved against Labour by 2.9%,” cannot be supported by these data.

 

 


With apologies to Rob, I’m not going to add the phrase “Polity:” to the front of that mess of a title. How much did you have to drink last night?

23 comments on “Psephology-o-rama: Hangover nerdery edition ”

  1. karol 1

    Interesting stats. I never saw them last night as I was watching Maori TV. TV3 and TVNZ’s line ups were a turn off. All those right wing, mostly male, mostly pakeha commentators with a token female and a token leftie or two were a turn off.

    The stats show students went more for National than Labour. So maybe IMP’s targeting of students wasn’t such a clever approach?

    • Lanthanide 1.1

      “The stats show students went more for National than Labour. So maybe IMP’s targeting of students wasn’t such a clever approach?”

      It’s *very* tempting to make these assumptions, but as the post says, it’s actually about areas of voters that have that characteristic, not the voters themselves.

      For example, the Ilam electorate has a lot of students, but it also has a lot of rich white folk that vote National.

      It’s similarly tempting to say that families with children are very pro-Labour, but actually this is more likely confounded with the race – Pacific and Moari more likely to have larger families, and areas with Pacifica and Maori are shown to be very pro-Labour.

      • Yoyo 1.1.1

        Yes.Thus why these stats are next to useless. Not sure why anyone would choose to break them down this way. Far better ways to work out what students think.

        • Lanthanide 1.1.1.1

          Because these are the only stats we have.

          The US has lots of demographic information about votes, because they have exit-polling to capture it.

          NZ doesn’t do exit polling, at least nowhere near the scale that it occurs in the US.

          This data was compiled from matching census data with booth data.

    • according to my son..int/mana were invisible on ak uni campus..

      ..’the greens ‘were everywhere’..

      ..but not much int/mana..

      ..given free education was a cornerstone-policy..

      ..that wd seem to have been a fail…

      ..

  2. karol 2

    I would also like to see a gender break down of voting (and non-voting). I think the current very masculine style of politics is a turn off for a lot of women: ie the focus on economics over people and relationships; the focus on stats over stories about impacts on communities and relationships; some very aggressive attack style politics (part of the Lusk plan), etc.

    • Carol 2.1

      I strongly disagree with your comment. I know a considerable number of women who voted and in some instances even voted with their daughters this election. To say that women are so weak or shallow as to be turned off by a ‘masculine style of politics’ is utter nonsense. The women who fought for us to vote were ‘not put off’, they rose up and met the challenge and gave us a voice. We have not got weaker, we have got stronger. We know our own minds, and we are empowered by our democratic society to have our say on election day to ensure we speak for ourselves and our children. Those that didn’t vote on Saturday suffered from indifference, not because they were female.

  3. Lanthanide 3

    Few interesting points:
    1. Support for the Greens increases based on HH income
    2. Support for the Greens + Labour is slightly greater for $100K+ HH than for $75k-$100k
    3. Greens more support in the south island, Labour in the north
    4. National marginally dropped votes in Christchurch, while Labour and Green support went elsewhere (Internet? NZFirst?)

  4. Maori kept the faith with Labour.

    Labour better damn well keep that in mind when rebuilding.

    • Skinny 4.1

      Yes I agree Maori support was solid the policies hit home with Pacifica too. The Chinese bloc not so well.

  5. Once was Pete 5

    Actually, I thought his contribution to TV3 was very good, and it was surprising the level of agreement between Rob and David Farrar on what the numbers were saying.
    The interesting point about these numbers above is that Labour went back on almost every segment from 2011 to 2014 whilst National improved in all but one.

  6. Reddelusion 6

    There is misconception that all students are left leaning. The student union and left voice is definitely the loudest on campus but I am sure as it was in my day( and before anybody ask i paid fees and funded my own way through) the silent student majority hold very differnt views or just found the so call left leaders a bunch of show ponies

    • The Lone Haranguer 6.1

      Or, (as in my days of free University education) the vast majority of students say nothing and vote based upon their upbringing.

    • greywarbler 6.2

      @ Reddelusion 6.06
      You funded your own way through uni. It was hard to do that if you had to earn money as well as study, or work hard and save up to manage, or get a loan from Mum and Dad, or get a loan from a bank eager to lend to students. But years back you could get jobs fairly easily and the pay and working hours hadn’t been sliced and diced. So don’t be too self-admiring will you. You may be an exceptional person who did it all your own way, but others will have different strengths and abilities that matured at a different age to yours.

      And to be left leaning is usually to be applying idealistic intellectuality to one’s society thinking and questioning. Most students don’t set aside time for this, or maybe aren’t bright enough to consider anything beyond the memes they meet, or to manage studies and question other aspects of the culture.

  7. venezia 7

    Re TV coverage of election results – it was the same for me Karol. Maori TV was the most professional presentation but they covered only the Maori seats. TVNZ & TV3 were a real turn off. Egotist city. I watched TV3 with the mute button on, to see the rolling parade of results.

  8. The Lone Haranguer 8

    I found the TV3 coverage to be very good and was pleasantly surprised by John Campbells efforts.

    TV One was lamentable.

  9. bearded git 9

    Anyone know the percentage turnout this time and last time?

    • greywarbler 9.1

      @ Bearded git 9
      Just over 77 per cent of voters took to the ballot boxes this weekend – a small increase in turnout from the last election.
      More than 2.4 million people voted in this year’s election, representing a 77.04 per turnout.
      http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11328886

      And from the Guardian (did anyone follow their presentation and compare it to our local media?)
      http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2014/sep/20/new-zealand-election-live
      I’m manning our live coverage with the help of politics buffs Anna Rankin, Thomas Carnegie (@tomcarnegie_) and Craig Robertson (@CraigTRobertson), who between them have 15 years of the finest undergraduate education New Zealand’s tertiary institutions can offer.
      Out in the field is my colleague, Toby Manhire. He’s written for the Guardian extensively on the decision facing Kiwis today and will file this evening as soon as a result is known. Dr Bryce Edwards, a politics specialist from Otago University, will also be providing analysis throughout the next few hours.

      Inclement weather in parts of the country is expected to depress voter turnout, but the NZ electoral commission today revealed that the number of advance votes – those cast before today – number around 717,000, more than double 2011’s poll. That figure represents as astonishing 23% of enrolled voters.

      • bearded git 9.1.1

        thanks grey.

        I think a higher turnout would hve helped the left.

        • greywarbler 9.1.1.1

          Bearded git
          Perhaps a message to those glued to their cellphones, do they receive ads? Coffee shop meetings with half price coffee by the shops on slow nights, as a promotion for themselves and the Party. And some music and discussion and questions and quips to keep it good humoured. Getting to the young, important. Trouble is 30 years after Rogernomics has allowed a generation and a half to evolve a confused idea of what life and politics is about, all mixed up with celebrity people with cynical views, and a desire to take the piss out of anybody if they are blokes, and to be a sex symbol well-spoken clothes horse if they are women. Almost as if the wave of feminism never happened or got to tv.

          This is a bit way out but what a contrast.

  10. Adrian 10

    For Beared Git, if you consider that around 3.3 million were eligible but Judith Collins ( in charge of getting the vote out ) seems to have deliberatly done a bad job, as her minions only managed to sign up 20,000 over 2011 figures, but they seemed really proud of that appalling effort, falling about 300,000 short.
    That meant that turnout was only 69.8 % of eligible voters. Don’t believe anything that The Herald or Fairfax say to the contrary.
    The data is impressive but the student stuff is dodgy I think because most voting students live away from their home electorate temporarily, I’ve got three.
    They are all special votes that are not counted yet.

  11. SeanExile 11

    Its a start. I assume that the secret polls the parties do have alot more data in regards to this.
    I actually think that the student vote isn’t as off as it may seem. A lot of the students don’t engage in campus activities. Few, outside of Otago, care the slightest about political life on campus or even about student committees. Most, id say, just visit campus and then returns home and vote for the same party their parents or peers do. So for me the results don’t look that off what id expect.

    Two things the left has failed spectacularly in
    Young voters
    Chinese voters.

    Youth usually vote left. They are still idealistic, still vote with their hearts. How can we fail in this category?
    Another thing I have noticed from Auckland is that Labour is really missing out on the Chinese vote. That we would loose out among the HongKong:nese are pretty given, but that were loosing the overall Chinese vote so spectacularly is bad for us. This is one segment where Labour should be strong and we really seem to lack the ability and personnel to handle this. And to be honest its not that hard to corner this segment. Clear policies, advertised on mandarin Chinese TV and news for how those with income can bring their parents to NZ. Simplified such policies and more support for education in Chinese in schools etc. (Why do most NZ schools offer Japanese classes but not Mandarin? – it makes zero sense)

    On the other hand from my 100% unscientific knowledge were doing better with the Indian community.

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Environment Court Judge appointed
    Prudence Steven QC, barrister of Christchurch has been appointed as an Environment Judge and District Court Judge to serve in Christchurch, Attorney-General David Parker announced today. Ms Steven has been a barrister sole since 2008, practising in resource management and local government / public law.    She was appointed a Queen’s ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 hours ago
  • Government moves on climate promises
    The Government is delivering on its first tranche of election promises to take action on climate change with a raft of measures that will help meet New Zealand’s 2050 carbon neutral target, create new jobs and boost innovation. “This will be an ongoing area of action but we are moving ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 hours ago
  • Jump starting research careers
    The Government is investing up to $10 million to support 30 of the country’s top early-career researchers to develop their research skills. “The pandemic has had widespread impacts across the science system, including the research workforce. After completing their PhD, researchers often travel overseas to gain experience but in the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 hours ago
  • Project protects jobs and nature
    A Waitomo-based Jobs for Nature project will keep up to ten people employed in the village as the tourism sector recovers post Covid-19 Conservation Minister Kiri Allan says. “This $500,000 project will save ten local jobs by deploying workers from Discover Waitomo into nature-based jobs. They will be undertaking local ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Minister Shaw speaks with U.S. Presidential Envoy John Kerry
    Minister for Climate Change, James Shaw spoke yesterday with President Biden’s Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry. “I was delighted to have the opportunity to speak with Mr. Kerry this morning about the urgency with which our governments must confront the climate emergency. I am grateful to him and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Minister of Foreign Affairs makes three diplomatic appointments
    Foreign Affairs Minister Hon Nanaia Mahuta today announced three diplomatic appointments: Alana Hudson as Ambassador to Poland John Riley as Consul-General to Hong Kong Stephen Wong as Consul-General to Shanghai   Poland “New Zealand’s relationship with Poland is built on enduring personal, economic and historical connections. Poland is also an important ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Major redevelopment of Wainuiomata High School underway
    Work begins today at Wainuiomata High School to ensure buildings and teaching spaces are fit for purpose, Education Minister Chris Hipkins says. The Minister joined principal Janette Melrose and board chair Lynda Koia to kick off demolition for the project, which is worth close to $40 million, as the site ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • New expert group appointed to advise Government on Oranga Tamariki
    A skilled and experienced group of people have been named as the newly established Oranga Tamariki Ministerial Advisory Board by Children’s Minister Kelvin Davis today. The Board will provide independent advice and assurance to the Minister for Children across three key areas of Oranga Tamariki: relationships with families, whānau, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • COVID-19 vaccine slated for possible approval next week
    The green light for New Zealand’s first COVID-19 vaccine could be granted in just over a week, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said today. “We’re making swift progress towards vaccinating New Zealanders against the virus, but we’re also absolutely committed to ensuring the vaccines are safe and effective,” Jacinda Ardern said. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • New ACC Board members announced.
    The Minister for ACC is pleased to announce the appointment of three new members to join the Board of ACC on 1 February 2021. “All three bring diverse skills and experience to provide strong governance oversight to lead the direction of ACC” said Hon Carmel Sepuloni. Bella Takiari-Brame from Hamilton ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Economic boost for Southland marae
    The Government is investing $9 million to upgrade a significant community facility in Invercargill, creating economic stimulus and jobs, Infrastructure Minister Grant Robertson and Te Tai Tonga MP Rino Tirikatene have announced.  The grant for Waihōpai Rūnaka Inc to make improvements to Murihiku Marae comes from the $3 billion set ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Celebrating the Entry Into Force of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons
    [Opening comments, welcome and thank you to Auckland University etc] It is a great pleasure to be here this afternoon to celebrate such an historic occasion - the entry into force of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. This is a moment many feared would never come, but ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Supporting disabled people to stay connected
    The Government is providing $3 million in one-off seed funding to help disabled people around New Zealand stay connected and access support in their communities, Minister for Disability Issues, Carmel Sepuloni announced today. The funding will allow disability service providers to develop digital and community-based solutions over the next two ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Voluntary saliva testing offered to quarantine workers from Monday
    Border workers in quarantine facilities will be offered voluntary daily COVID-19 saliva tests in addition to their regular weekly testing, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today. This additional option will be rolled out at the Jet Park Quarantine facility in Auckland starting on Monday 25 January, and then to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Next steps in firearms buy-back
    The next steps in the Government’s ambitious firearms reform programme to include a three-month buy-back have been announced by Police Minister Poto Williams today.  “The last buy-back and amnesty was unprecedented for New Zealand and was successful in collecting 60,297 firearms, modifying a further 5,630 firearms, and collecting 299,837 prohibited ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Jobs for Nature projects target iconic ecosystems
    Upscaling work already underway to restore two iconic ecosystems will deliver jobs and a lasting legacy, Conservation Minister Kiri Allan says.  “The Jobs for Nature programme provides $1.25 billion over four years to offer employment opportunities for people whose livelihoods have been impacted by the COVID-19 recession. “Two new projects ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New Public Housing Plan announced
    The Government has released its Public Housing Plan 2021-2024 which outlines the intention of where 8,000 additional public and transitional housing places announced in Budget 2020, will go. “The Government is committed to continuing its public house build programme at pace and scale. The extra 8,000 homes – 6000 public ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Prime Minister congratulates President Joe Biden on his inauguration
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has congratulated President Joe Biden on his inauguration as the 46th President of the United States of America. “I look forward to building a close relationship with President Biden and working with him on issues that matter to both our countries,” Jacinda Ardern said. “New Zealand ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Jobs for Nature funding will create training and employment opportunities
    A major investment to tackle wilding pines in Mt Richmond will create jobs and help protect the area’s unique ecosystems, Biosecurity Minister Damien O’Connor says. The Mt Richmond Forest Park has unique ecosystems developed on mineral-rich geology, including taonga plant species found nowhere else in the country. “These special plant ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Pre-departure testing extended to all passengers to New Zealand
    To further protect New Zealand from COVID-19, the Government is extending pre-departure testing to all passengers to New Zealand except from Australia, Antarctica and most Pacific Islands, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “The change will come into force for all flights arriving in New Zealand after 11:59pm (NZT) on Monday ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Bay Cadets learn skills to protect environment
    Bay Conservation Cadets launched with first intake Supported with $3.5 million grant Part of $1.245b Jobs for Nature programme to accelerate recover from Covid Cadets will learn skills to protect and enhance environment Environment Minister David Parker today welcomed the first intake of cadets at the launch of the Bay ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Cook Islanders to resume travel to New Zealand
    The Prime Minister of New Zealand Jacinda Ardern and the Prime Minister of the Cook Islands Mark Brown have announced passengers from the Cook Islands can resume quarantine-free travel into New Zealand from 21 January, enabling access to essential services such as health. “Following confirmation of the Cook Islands’ COVID ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Supporting communities and landowners to grow employment opportunities
    Jobs for Nature funding is being made available to conservation groups and landowners to employ staff and contractors in a move aimed at boosting local biodiversity-focused projects, Conservation Minister Kiritapu Allan has announced. It is estimated some 400-plus jobs will be created with employment opportunities in ecology, restoration, trapping, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Border exception for some returning international tertiary students
    The Government has approved an exception class for 1000 international tertiary students, degree level and above, who began their study in New Zealand but were caught offshore when border restrictions began. The exception will allow students to return to New Zealand in stages from April 2021. “Our top priority continues ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Tiwai deal gives time for managed transition
    Today’s deal between Meridian and Rio Tinto for the Tiwai smelter to remain open another four years provides time for a managed transition for Southland. “The deal provides welcome certainty to the Southland community by protecting jobs and incomes as the region plans for the future. The Government is committed ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New member for APEC Business Advisory Council
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has appointed Anna Curzon to the APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC). The leader of each APEC economy appoints three private sector representatives to ABAC. ABAC provides advice to leaders annually on business priorities. “ABAC helps ensure that APEC’s work programme is informed by business community perspectives ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Govt’s careful economic management recognised
    The Government’s prudent fiscal management and strong policy programme in the face of the COVID-19 global pandemic have been acknowledged by the credit rating agency Fitch. Fitch has today affirmed New Zealand’s local currency rating at AA+ with a stable outlook and foreign currency rating at AA with a positive ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Additional actions to keep COVID-19 out of NZ
    The Government is putting in place a suite of additional actions to protect New Zealand from COVID-19, including new emerging variants, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “Given the high rates of infection in many countries and evidence of the global spread of more transmissible variants, it’s clear that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • 19 projects will clean up and protect waterways
    $36 million of Government funding alongside councils and others for 19 projects Investment will clean up and protect waterways and create local jobs Boots on the ground expected in Q2 of 2021 Funding part of the Jobs for Nature policy package A package of 19 projects will help clean up ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago