Race for 2011 wide open

Written By: - Date published: 6:48 am, January 10th, 2011 - 65 comments
Categories: election 2011, polls - Tags:

Campbell has a good post on the problem of voters’ emotional reactions to Key and Goff as exemplified by the Sunday-Star Times Horizon poll (the striking thing is how little emotional response they elicit). I’ll look at the party numbers.

I don’t look at every poll in detail, usually just the Roy Morgans because they’re the only ones that are regular enough to give a good trend, but the Horizon poll is interesting because they ask the undecideds to decide. The aim is to get a better idea of how an election held today would actually turn out, although its inevitably very changeable because undecideds are quite likely to change their minds week to week.

The numbers are:

National: 40.4%
Labour: 28.3%
Greens: 8.9%
New Zealand First: 8.9%
ACT: 2%
Maori Party:1.7%
Progressives: 1.3%
United Future: 1.2%
Other/don’t know: 7.2%

On those numbers, (and assuming current electorates are held, except Wigram goes to Labour) the seats are:

National: 52
Labour: 37
Greens: 12
New Zealand First: 12
Maori Party: 5
ACT: 3
United Future: 2

It’s a 123 seat Parliament.

Majorities include:

National+NZF= 64 (1996-98 redux).
Nat+ACT+Maori Party+UF=62 (ie. same parties as now completely at Hone’s ransom).
Lab+Greens+NZF+UF=63 (essentially, 2005-2008 again but more powerful Greens and NZF)
National+ Labour = 89 (Matthew Hooton’s bizarre fantasy)

Now, I don’t expect National or Labour to actually poll that low or NZF, Progressives, United Future to get so high (I’m hopeful for the Greens). But the key point of the poll is clear – Key’s popularity is not enough for National to sleepwalk to victory. They’re not going to get a majority themselves, so ACT winning Epsom becomes crucial for National.

If National polls in that mid-40s danger zone then they won’t be able to make a majority with ACT and UF, they’ll need the Maori Party or NZF. That means, whereas Key can currently play ACT and the Maori Party off against each other, he would be reliant on the support of Hide and Harawira or Peters for every law he wants to push through. That’s a hell of an ask. And if those numbers work then there’s probably a Labour-led option with the same number or fewer parties that can also make a majority.

This clearly has National worried. The spin from Matthew Hooton is that it would be a travesty of MMP if Labour led a government on the numbers in the Horizon poll, for example. Hooton says such a result would “show that fringe parties with no public support, rather than the voters, get to choose the prime minister”. That’s rubbish, of course – the PM would have the support of a coalition of parties that a plurality/majority of voters voted for. That’s a more democratic situation than existed under FPP when a party could win fewer votes yet more seat and govern alone (1978, 1981), or win just 35% of the vote but govern alone (1993).

Hooton et al claim that Labour would have no mandate to govern if it didn’t get more votes than National. But the actual point is that it is the coalition of parties that has the mandate, and the support of the most people. It doesn’t matter whether or not the largest party is in the government. The government just needs to the confidence of parties that were given a majority of the seats by the voters.

One interesting thing that Horizon does is compare people’s current voting intention to their vote in 2008 (I assume this is one measure they use for weighting their results to get rid of bias). Here’s the table of results for vote in 2008 vs voting intention in 2011. The figure in bold in each column is the percentage of a party’s supporters in 2008 who intend to vote for them again, the one in red is the party they’ve lost most support to.

ACT is obviously in big trouble, shedding all but its very core support. The Maori Party, too, has shed a hell of a lot of its previous voters – mostly to National and New Zealand First. Greens voters are loyal as you would expect. National voters are highly loyal so far too although there is obviously quite a bit of disenchantment because they’ve lost far more supporters than they’ve picked up. Labour is picking up the the largest share of people who stayed away from the polls last election but is failing to attract this large group dissatisfied with National, or even retain own voters. That’s a failure of the leadership to supply a vision, which Campbell talks more about. Instead, the dissatisfied are increasingly looking to Peters and New Zealand First.

PS. Interesting to see Bill English’s advice to Labour in the Herald today: “It should have gone to the beach, acquired a reputation for being lazy but remorseful [the Nats think politics is all about benig lazy]. The punters would have accepted that. They would have said you know you are irrelevant and you’ve figured out why I chucked you out. Then Labour could “come back all fresh and keen in election year, bounce up to 35 per cent and they are away”. [So, English sees Labour at 35% as the danger zone, that’s where they are in the Roy Morgans]

65 comments on “Race for 2011 wide open”

  1. tsmithfield 1

    Firstly, its good for National to be confronted with some concerning poll results. Likely to be a kick in the pants that stops them from becoming complacent.

    Secondly, not sure how much can be read into intended polling by undecideds. In respect to the Greens for instance, they regularly disappoint with respect to turn-out in comparison to poll results amongst decided voters let alone undecided ones (I suspect a lot of their voters are too mellowed out on weed to bother getting out and voting :smile:). Also, given the demographic NZ First appeals to, a lot of their voters will be dead or demented by the next election! Also, people may state intentions at this time-frame, and then revert to the tried and true by election day. For instance, I have toyed with voting Act during some election cycles but end up voting National.

    • ghostwhowalksnz 1.1

      – So you think not much can be read into ‘intended voting’ by undecideds?. Sounds a lot better to go with that then what other polling companies had been doing which was just to decide for them ( ie allocate undecided votes in line with the rest of the results).
      Certainly brings Nationals numbers back to earth to around 40% which is in line with reality based on previous elections

    • Hooton et al claim that Labour would have no mandate to govern if it didn’t get more votes than National.

      I assume Hooton etc.’s comments would apply in all Australian Federal Elections as well. Therefore if the ALP has more votes than the Liberal Party, then ALP has the right to form a government, even if Coalition has a majority?

      Go back and do some POLS103 with Therese Arsenau Matt.

  2. Colonial Viper 2

    Firstly, its good for National to be confronted with some concerning poll results. Likely to be a kick in the pants that stops them from becoming complacent.

    Not exactly sure how “concerning poll results” are going to assist Bill and John to come up with an economic plan for New Zealand, help them raise workers’ wages, or reduce youth unemployment.

    Ahhh. It’s not, is it.

    But sure, at the end of the day this is just another poll, one of a score before election day, not something to be taken too seriously.

  3. eszett 3

    Hmm, Labour retaining only 67.8% of it’s support from 2008. Hardly a number to be proud about.

    Interesting is also the Maori Party with a huge shift towards National and NZ First. You would have thought that Labour would pick up most of those voters if they shift away.

  4. The right’s response to this poll is interesting to say the least. Could it be that they prefer to sleepwalk to victory in the cozy glow that is John Key’s leadership? Do they rely on the landline dominated polls to create an air of invincibility that all that smile and wave has to do to win is precisely that?

    And are they afraid about such things as a real debate on what state our country is in and where we are going wrong with the fear that this is a debate that they will lose?

    I am sure that the poll margins will tighten and when they do the Nats’ response will be interesting.

    All that I can say about Double Dipton’s Herald comment is that he tried this in 1999 and it clearly did not work then.

  5. Lanthanide 5

    The table at the end is quite odd for Progressives. 11.4% and 5.60% going to Act and National, and only 9.9% going to Labour? Seems out of place.

    Other interesting points are 15.1% for Green ‘chose not to vote’ and 41.6% for National ‘not eligible to vote’. Why are so many kids voting National when it’s not in their best interest (see youth unemployment)?

    • higherstandard 5.1

      “Why are so many kids voting National when it’s not in their best interest (see youth unemployment)?”

      Possibly because you register for the panel put shit answers into the survey and go into the draw to win an ipad.

      • Blighty 5.1.1

        you can lie in answer to any survey. why do you think this one is particularly vulnerable?

        • higherstandard 5.1.1.1

          I don’t – I treat all surveys with a degree of scepticism.

          Apart from the political tragics and the meeeeedia most people wait until election night/day after the election before commenting on the validity or otherwise of the various poolsters

          • Blighty 5.1.1.1.1

            It’s just I haven’t seen you dismissing all polls on the basis that the participants probably lied.

            Anyway, if some do lie they’re unlikely to lie in a particular pattern but, rather, largely cancel each other out while adding a little more noise to the sample.

            • higherstandard 5.1.1.1.1.1

              OK have it your way, this poll’s clearly brilliant Winston will get back in and be kingmaker along with the greens and lots of kids want to vote for National. All polls are brilliant and we must live our lives by them.

              • Blighty

                Christ, you’re childish. Either you have a serious objection to this poll’s methodology compared to others or you don’t.

                Having a cry when the flaw in your objection is pointed out does little to recommend you.

                • higherstandard

                  Not at all I just got fed up with debating a poll which for all effective purposes is irrelevant and out of kilter with others – anyhoo who really gives a toss what the polls are saying before the election is announced and campaigning gets underway.

                  [lprent: Fixed your e-mail typo. ]

    • ZeeBop 5.2

      Youth seek change, National preached change, Obama was preaching change. So
      last election Labour were see as old, not young. So surely young people voted for
      change, for young looking Key? Now Key looks tired, boring and not very good at
      the job of change. It would be interesting to see how Auckland Council election
      extrapolates to a general election.

  6. alfa 6

    I await yet another post celebrating this poll as a victory for the left, set against tirades of silence for the actually scientific random sample polls that show the true story.

  7. Fisiani 7

    The consensus over the summer barbecues is that National have made a very good start and deserve another term. They inherited the worst recession in living memory yet avoided huge cuts in public spending and they stopped unemployment reaching double digits. They have actually INCREASED spending in early childhood education. They have brought in easy to understand school reports and increased places in tertiary education. They have transferred investment from housing to exporting. They have brought in the 90 day chance to prove yourself law to give workers a fair go.
    A discredited online panel poll (different from every other poll) makes another shock pronouncement . No one believes it.
    A more accurate poll now and in November would be approximately Nat 50% Labour 34% Green 6% Act 2.5% Winston <2% Maori Party 2.5%

    • Blighty 7.1

      those solo barbies must get lonely, Fisi. But at least you have first dibs on the sausages.

    • Colonial Viper 7.2

      Which country are you talking about here Fis? Its not one I’m familiar with.

    • Draco T Bastard 7.3

      More outright lies from Fisi as he defends his psychopathic heroes, the National Party.

      They have actually INCREASED spending in early childhood education.

      Nope, they’ve cut it by about $300m

      • Fisiani 7.3.1

        Keep up with the play Draco, ECE spending has INCREASED
        http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA1005/S00292.htm

        • Blighty 7.3.1.1

          funding to parts of ECE increased (mostly Maori providers if memory serves), funded by cutting funding to most ECE providers.

          Or do you think that half of ECE providers are wrong when they say that funding cus are forcing them to increase charges? http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/4192635/Funding-cuts-push-kids-out-of-daycare

          • Fisiani 7.3.1.1.1

            National is spending more government money on ECE in 2011 than in 2010. FACT.

            • Lanthanide 7.3.1.1.1.1

              Yeah, lets not bother with the details like where the money is actually going. All that matters is that funding has increased, nothing else.

            • Colonial Viper 7.3.1.1.1.2

              Apparently Fis your facts are on the list right next to “you are better paid under National” and “we are closing the gap with Australia”.

              Let’s see what the electorate thinks of that later this year.

            • Roger 7.3.1.1.1.3

              Does it not concern you that incentives have changed from providers having qualified staff in all centres to throwing money around to ensure that lower socioeconomic areas effectively have glorified babysitters to provide childcare?

              Sorry the incentive now is for all ECE providers to run as babysitting centres.

    • Zaphod Beeblebrox 7.4

      What!! shrinking GDP and $15bill govt deficit was part of the plan?

      Its not like they didn’t know what was facing them before they went on holiday in 2008.

  8. burt 8

    The race is wide open eh… what a pity that Labour can’t spend over $800,000 of stolen tax payers money on illegal election advertising then just validate it after they win the election like they did when the race was wide open in 2005. But hey if National do the same as Labour did in 2005 I can hardly wait for the supporters of self serving corruption to defend them and tell us all to move on.

    Trotter might even pen a piece telling us how excellent it is that National broke to law to win power in the best interests of the party machine,….

    • Colonial Viper 8.1

      Hey Burt, tell us more about English’s surprise $4.8M for PEDA, an organisation hardly anyone had heard of before.

      • burt 8.1.1

        It was about 10% of the corrupt dealings that went on with the HB-DHB and the special Hausmann/King employ a husband scheme… Is that the starter you were after ?

        • The Voice of Reason 8.1.1.1

          Get over it, Burt. Isn’t it time you stopped banging on about stuff which is both irrelevent now and, in retrospective, not an issue in the past either. If you have evidence of corruption, call the cops.

          If not, just focus on why Farrar et al are shitting themselves this over this poll. The reason is that it indicates the likely outcome at the one poll that counts. Which, as I have said before, is far more likely to be in Autumn than Spring. On these numbers, which presumably match the Nat’s own polling (hence the panic), Key will have to go early if he doesn’t want to go down in history the way most gamblers ultimately do; as a loser.

          • gingercrush 8.1.1.1.1

            You are fucking stupid. Repeat Voice of Reason. You are fucking stupid.

            [lprent: That is abuse without a point. I’d suggest you curb writing this type of comment in the future. It is stupid to attract my attention when I’m moderating. ]

          • Colonial Viper 8.1.1.1.2

            An Autumn election – you can’t be serious, can you TVoR? That would be a totally Captain Panic Pants kind of move.

            Oh I see you got gc on your case, which means maybe you have a point.

            • The Voice of Reason 8.1.1.1.2.1

              Yep, validation via mindless abuse always puts a smile on my dial. The reason I think it’ll be early is that Key’s expertise is in getting out on top. Money traders make their money on timing; predicting when currencies will rise, fall or stabilise.

              Key will go when he thinks the Nats have peaked in popularity or at the point at which they are clearly starting to slide. If its the first, then he’ll be looking for a massive win, if it’s the second, then a more modest win, but a win none the less. There is nothing in the economic indicators that suggest that things will be rosy by Spring, so I reckon he’ll find an excuse to go in April/May. Maybe seek a mandate to privatise or if he loses a corrupt minister or two more, or ACT implode, say it’s time to refresh the Government. Whatever excuse he needs to make the decision look reasonable, he’ll go with.

              I don’t think the Botany by-election (as mentioned by Lanthanide elsewhere) will worry him in the least. If NZ isn’t bothered by the Blinglish/Wong/Worth rorts, why would wasting a couple hundred grand more make a difference?

              Anyhoo, the point I’m making is that we need to start preparing for the election now. If we don’t and he pulls a swifty, we risk being stuck with the insect eyed git for another 3 years. So gird your loins people. Ring or email your preferred party and get yourself on the activist list. There’s pamphlets that need delivering now, fundraising that needs doing yesterday.

              Oh, and one more reson I think it won’t be in November. John Key says it will be. That’s good enough evidence for me.

              • Jim Nald

                “Oh, and one more reson I think it won’t be in November. John Key says it will be.”

                uh huh. the aspirational ass is bluffing.
                if he says it will be in nov, folks should be prepared for an earlier election.

          • Lanthanide 8.1.1.1.3

            Remember the Botany by-election is in March or April, right? If they call the election for soon after that, it opens them up to attack for wasting public money on a by-election that wasn’t necessary.

            • Colonial Viper 8.1.1.1.3.1

              Yep, if it was going to be called earlier we are looking at the depths of winter, maybe Aug.

              Bill and John are desperately hanging on for a cyclical up turn to the economy which they can then take credit for. But sorry lads – times have changed. Peak oil is here and the financial barons are ripping too much capital out of the system for the real economy to recover from.

              And if you think the NZ economy is rough now – take into account that we are already surfing on a wave of high commodity export prices. If those falter there will be some real trouble.

    • Armchair Critic 8.2

      Have National paid the GST on their advertising from that election yet, burt?

      • burt 8.2.1

        I don’t think they have, such a pity the self serving Labour govt put a lid on on 14 years of corrupt election spending so that dear leader wouldn’t need to stand in court. The unintended consequences of looking after the red team and allowing them to buy the election gave National a free pass as well.

        Shameful episode, we should have declared the 2005 election null and void and held it again – do you agree ?

        • Draco T Bastard 8.2.1.1

          Such a pity that you can’t seem to learn and keep spouting the same BS no matter how often reality is pointed out to you.

          • burt 8.2.1.1.1

            Sorry Draco, I forgot we were told to move on and that corruption is courageous when the red team do it.

          • The Baron 8.2.1.1.2

            Maybe he needs to call the reality hotline for a chance to be put straight Draco? What’s the number again?

  9. nadis 9

    The most interesting question which the Horizon poll doesn’t seem to answer (correct me if wrong) is to get some metrics around “Will you vote?” I would guess many undecideds are also in the “cant be bothered voting” camp, and do not do so. Whats our typical national poll turnout – around 70%?

    Also, when undecided voters are pressed to give an opinion I would imagine there are two responses, either a) who they last voted for, or b) the party from the most recent headline or news story they saw. If voters are undecided, then they are probably also unengaged in the whole political debate.

    To me two things are obvious. This type of poll gives little information but lots of headlines. Whoever governs – most likely National – will need a coalition.

    And Winston Peters in cabinet or close to it – for either National or Labour – will cause me to never ever vote for that party again. Most politicians are bad but he is the worst of a bad bunch. Peters as Treasurer (yes under National) was an absolute disgrace that fucked up the countries finances needlessly.

    And in terms of extrapolating the Auckland City poll into the national poll I think that is a bit of a leap. Despite typically voting right in recent elections I think what the Auckland city result showed was very rational – a reaction to bad press about the super city and misgivings about the pace of change. Change is happening so at least lets vote in a way which provides maximum counterweight to the perceived risks. We didn’t see a swing – national precincts continued to vote right wing candidates, left precincts voted Len Brown. If Len Brown recognises that he’s been given a mandate to provide efficient council services and no rate increase surprises then I can see him as a long term mayor. But if he gives the right something to mobilise against then each election becomes a real fight.

    • Lanthanide 9.1

      I agree. Polling undecideds (pressing them for a preference) this far out isn’t useful because undecideds are the most likely to be swayed by campaign advertising which hasn’t started yet.

      An acquittance I knew told me how he had just gone out and joined the electoral finance act protest because it “was anti-democratic, taking our rights away”. The next time I saw him was election day 2008, so I asked him who he voted for – no one, because he didn’t see the government as affecting his life and didn’t care.

  10. gingercrush 10

    The horizon poll is producing perverse results for NZ First and the Greens. The idea NZ First can be under 5% on every other poll and somehow be 8.9% on this poll is really pathetic. Also many undecideds actually don’t vote. Turnout is likely to be about the same as 1998 if not slightly lower. Under that scenario Labour and the Greens will be hurt. And NZ First getting 5% is just laughable.

    The race for 2011 isn’t wide open. It has never been wide open. Its possible Labour can govern, but its entirely unlikely.

    And can someone tell Johansson just shut up already. The guy is a joke.

    • Blighty 10.1

      ah, the famous 1998 election.

      If you don’t like the Horizon poll look at the Roy Morgan: Nat + ACT = 50%

      All we need is a drop of 2-3% more and NACT can’t govern without the Maori Party, and there’s probalby a Labour-led option to govern too.

      If you’re saying that the race is decided already, you’re saying that National’s support is not going to continue to gradually fall as it has for the last year and a half.

  11. randal 11

    the gnats are getting really skanky now.
    john key has had his turn and he has really had enough of being the big fish.
    he wants to go but the meatheads know they are nothing without him.
    great days.

    • Colonial Viper 11.1

      To paraphrase Tony Hayward, former BP CEO who was seen as bungling the handling of the Deepwater Horizon spill in the Gulf of Mexico: Key would like his life back now thank you very much.

  12. burt 12

    Wow, who would have guessed… the editor of the Sunday-Socialist Times likes Phil Goff …

    http://www.facebook.com/people/David-Kemeys/1511822401

    • Draco T Bastard 12.1

      Who would have guessed that burt doesn’t understand social media?

      • burt 12.1.1

        Should I read all the other comments you have made in this thread like I do this one ? You really need to focus on the message rather than the messenger – hard for somebody who defends corrupt self serving govt but you really should try every now and then to look at what is being said rather than who said it.

        • Mickysavage 12.1.1.1

          You really need to focus on the message rather than the messenger – hard for somebody who defends corrupt self serving govt but you really should try every now and then to look at what is being said rather than who said it.

          Good advice Burt which you should also follow.

        • Draco T Bastard 12.1.1.2

          I’ll give you a clue. He’s editor of a newspaper and generally needs to keep abreast of things. To help him do this he will follow politicians on social media whether he likes them or not.

          BTW, I did address your “message” in pointing out that you didn’t have one.

  13. Afewknowthetruth 13

    Why would anyone vote for any of them?

    It must be the ‘soma’ that most people are ingesting -as per Huxley’s Brave New World- that makes people believe the clowns and saboteurs that constitute all mainstream parties will deliver something other than the continuos falure we have witnessed over the past 30 years.

    Delusions are free (for the moment).

  14. The Baron 14

    Oh look who cares? Either way, this poll is 6-9 months out from the election. You all can play at amateur political sleuths regarding all the permutations and combinations (emphasis on amateur) all you like – but it is just a goddamn poll, not some preordained pronouncement from on high.

    • Blondie 14.1

      So true. If National start turning things around in the next 6 months, then there’s no reason that they can’t have the landslide victory they’re hoping for.

      On the other hand, if things continue to go from bad to worse, voters will express their dissatisfaction in the polling booths.

  15. MrSmith 15

    Key will go late, you can bet on that he’s is a gambler after all and has stated he won’t hang around if he loses, an allblack win should do it for him otherwise it’s off to Hawaii .

  16. So New Zealand First is loosing most of its base to the Progressives (who are about to implode) and the Maori Party, not National from whence they were assumed, in the main, to have come.

    Showing that there’s a market for a “plague on all their houses” party in the style of the original (pre-Lhaws) NZ First and the Australian Democrats under Don “Keep the bastards honest” Chipp.

    As soon as both those parties forgot their roles as watchdogs and cosied up to the elites they set themselves on the path to electoral oblivion.

    Yet it’s a market that now remains untapped on both sides of the Tasman. Interesting…. Matt McCarten, are you listening?

    • The Voice of Reason 16.1

      I think NZF and the Prog’s both appeal to socially conservative voters, so that convergence doesn’t surprise me, Rex. BTW, bit rough on Jim to say that his lot are imploding. They’ve rather gracefully integrated themselves into Labour and are already proving to be real assets. Despite losing the mayoralty, the left in Chch did a pretty solid job of getting the vote out. The earthquake and the ‘earthquake’ meme gifted it to Parker anyway.

      The market you talk of definitely exists and it will propel Peters back into the house, but I don’t know if it will help any other party. Certainly, a left party wouldn’t get much support from there. Given that you know Winston, how well dya reckon he’d get on with Goff? Close enough in outlook to make a good double act?

      • Any relationship between Winston and Goff will depend (from WP’s perspective) on two things:

        1. The degree of deference shown him not just by Goff but by everyone under Goff’s purview. That’ll start with the bestowal of baubles during the coalition process but will continue during the term of government. Provided there’s enough forelock tugging, use of “the Rt Hon”, no contradiction of anything he says – in private, not just in public – they’ll get along just fine since, as you suggest, they’re close enough in outlook (unlike Winston and Clark, Bolger, or Shipley).

        2. Who’s advising him at the time. Winston is slow to trust but once he does he is almost blind in his loyalty. He gave me incredible leeway and trust and was a loyal and good friend and political colleague, which is why it still pains me to criticise him. Trouble is, that makes him susceptible to malign (some may say “more malign” 😀 ) influences like Lhaws. And given what I’ve said in point 1, I shoukd mention he’s far more open than that suggests to criticism from those in the “inner circle”… many’s the time I bluntly told him I thought he was wrong on a policy issue, in the way he handled a media question, and similar topics. But again, what is a good quality also makes him manipulable.

        • The Voice of Reason 16.1.1.1

          Cheers, Rex. It seems to me that they would a quite formidable duo. Goff would supply the gravitas, Peters the oily charm. I’m not sure how comfortable he’d be with the Greens as part of a Government, but he may have got over his previous refusal to work with them, if, as you point out, there’s bawbees to be had. It just looks so cleanly symmetrical and stable to me, even with a thin majority. The MP have shown themselves to be almost as mercenary, so presumably they could be bought off, too.

          That leaves the Nats with a serious problem, as I see it. Get Hide up in Epsom or get binned.

        • Martin 16.1.1.2

          Rex – “he gave me incredible leeway and trust and was a loyal an dgood friend and politial colleague, which is why it still pains me to criticise him”

          You two faced lier Rex. You destroyed your own career and while this man stood by you as long as he could you carry this vendetta onward.

          Get a life Rex and stop trying to destroy a man that in your own words was good to you – boy with friends like you who needs enemies.

          • Rex Widerstrom 16.1.1.2.1

            That’s odd. No one called Martin worked in the Parliamentary office at the time I was there, or held any significant office in the party. Care to tell us on what you base your supposed superior insight?

            It’s true I set off the chain of events that led to Winston and I becoming estranged, by taking it upon myself to go to Hawkes Bay and investigate reports that Michael Laws – whom Winston was insistent had to join NZF – was in serious trouble.

            It turned out he was (he was forced to resign from the council and, later, Parliament). My concern was to protect the party, and Winston personally, from the damage that association with Laws would do. History proved me right – Laws’ resignation embarrassed the party (and led, on Winston’s own admission, to his misleading the House by repeating what Laws had told him); and Laws’ hijacking of long-established NZF policies caused it to haemorrhage support from almost 30% to 13% by the 1996 election and 3% by the time it finally got rid of Laws.

            If not speaking to me for the six months after I visited Hawkes Bay in an attempt to protect him and the party he’d worked so hard to create, then calling to tell me to “fuck off” equates to “standing by me as long as he could”, you have a weird view of what constitutes loyalty, Martin. One not shared by Parliamentary Services, I might add, who gave me a large suitcase full of the taxpayers’ money to compensate me for the way I was treated over that six months (and to ensure I’m gagged from revealing more telling details).

Links to post

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • If you can’t measure it, does it exist?
    In the last couple of weeks, I’ve been busy preparing for our summer paper on Science Communication. Looking for something amusing about ‘risk’ in science, I came across this neat xkcd.com cartoon about why so many people come knocking on my door (or phoning me, or emailing me) desperately wanting ...
    SciBlogsBy Marcus Wilson
    4 hours ago
  • Swinson’s swithering
    Jo Swinson is doing even worse at this Being Sensible lark that I'd thought.  I've just become aware of the following utterance
    .@KayBurley presses Lib Dem leader @joswinson on whether she would agree to a #Brexit deal 'no matter how bad a deal it is' as long as it had ...
    16 hours ago
  • Women’s rights, trans ideology and Gramsci’s morbid symptoms
    by John Edmundson The International Socialist Organisation (ISO) have recently reposted a February article, by Romany Tasker-Poland, explaining ISO’s position in the “trans rights” debate.  It is available on their website and on their Facebook Page.  The article sets out to explain why “socialists support trans rights”.  It reads more ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    22 hours ago
  • We need to take guns off police
    Today's IPCA report of police criminality: a police officer unalwfully tasered a fleeing suspect who posed no threat to anyone:The police watchdog has found an officer unlawfully tasered an Auckland man who broke his ankle jumping off a balcony to escape arrest. [...] To avoid arrest, the man jumped over ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    23 hours ago
  • “Bringing kindness back”
    "Auckland City Mission: 10% of Kiwis experiencing food insecurity", RNZ, 16 October 2019:About half a million people are experiencing food insecurity, according to new research from the Auckland City Mission. Food insecurity, or food poverty, is defined as not having enough appropriate food. The City Mission said over the last ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    23 hours ago
  • Press Release: “Fake News” from Auckland City Council CCOs Board Chairs re pay and performance b...
    Media Statement for Immediate Release 16th October 2019 “Fake News” from Auckland City Council CCOs Board Chairs re pay and performance bonuses for top managers Despite comments from Auckland City Council CCOs Board Chairs re pay and performance bonuses for top managers—Herald Newspaper Tuesday Oct 15th–there is very little evidence ...
    Closing the GapBy Tracey Sharp
    24 hours ago
  • Ever-So-Slightly Bonkers: Simon Bridges Plays To His Base.
    Would You Buy A Used Propaganda Video From This Man? Bridges and the National Party’s strategists have discovered that the ideas and attitudes considered acceptable by today’s editors and journalists are no longer enforceable. The rise and rise of the Internet and the social media platforms it spawned means that ...
    1 day ago
  • Asking for food
    There is plenty of evidence of the way the business mentality has permeated every level of society since the recrudescence of market liberalism 35 years ago. You only need to think of how citizens in need of help from their government, their state, their country, are now routinely described as ...
    Opposable ThumbBy Unknown
    1 day ago
  • Forty years of change in the jobs Kiwi do and the places they call home
    John MacCormick Over the last 40 years, New Zealanders – and people in other countries – have experienced big changes in the jobs they do and where they live and work. These changes include: a decline in manufacturing jobs an increase in jobs in ‘information-intensive’ industries (which are better paid ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    1 day ago
  • Protecting Fresh Waterways in Aotearoa/NZ: The Strong Public Health Case
    Nick Wilson, Leah Grout, Mereana Wilson, Anja Mizdrak, Phil Shoemack, Michael Baker Protecting waterways has the benefits of: (1) protecting water from hazardous microbes; (2) minimising cancer risk and other problems from nitrates in water; (3) avoiding algal blooms that are hazardous to health; (4) protecting mahinga kai uses (cultural ...
    SciBlogsBy Public Health Expert
    1 day ago
  • Massey University triggered to rebrand
    by The Council of Disobedient Women In a press release today Massey University announced it has decided to rebrand and reorientate after struggling to be a University for grown-ups. For some time the University has wanted to be a safe play space for wee-woke-misogynists who have been really badly triggered ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 days ago
  • Swinson backing calls for a second referendum (again)
    After a brief dalliance with 'hard Revoke' it looks like the Lib Dems are changing ground on on Brexit, with leader Jo Swinson reverting to calling for a second referendum on Johnson's deal.The party has tabled an amendment to the Queen’s speech requesting that any deal brought back from Brussels ...
    2 days ago
  • An odious bill
    The government has decided that someone has done Something Bad. But despite their belief, there seems to be no evidence that they have actually broken the law. So the government's solution is to pass a retrospective law allowing them to be punished anyway, on a lower standard of proof. If ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • National is now the party of climate arson
    So, Judith Collins has done a Facebook rant about climate change, peddling the same shit National has been shovelling for the past twenty years: the impacts are overstated, there's no need to do anything about it, and its too hard anyway (oh, and its so unfair that people who peddle ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • The environmental footprint of electric versus fossil car
    Climate Explained is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, please send it to climate.change@stuff.co.nz There is a lot of discussion on the benefits of ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    2 days ago
  • “Manifest” by Andrew Bird – A Song For The Times.
    I came across this song quite by accident. If it isn't one of Greta Thunberg's favourites - it should be.Video courtesy of YouTube.This post is exclusive to Bowalley Road. ...
    2 days ago
  • Passing the buck
    Last month, NZDF's shoddy coverup of what it knew about civilian casualties in Operation Burnham began to fall apart, with the revelation that a report on the matter, which NZDF claimed not to have, had been sitting in an NZDF safe for the past nine years. Yesterday, the man responsible ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • India a major player in Earth observation satellites
    While many imagine that countries like the USA and Europe dominate space activities, in fact India is now a major player on this stage. It launches satellites for its own purposes and also commercially, and has constellations orbiting our planet and returning data of vital importance to that nation in ...
    SciBlogsBy Duncan Steel
    3 days ago
  • The rot at the top (2).
    Thanks to a report from the Acting Inspector General of Intelligence and Security following a complaint by Nicky Hager, we have come to find out that the SIS illegally spied on Mr. Hager on behalf of the NZDF after publication of Hager’s 2011 book, Other People’s Wars. The NZDF justified ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    3 days ago
  • Common misconceptions about “Global Warming”
    COMMON MISCONCEPTIONS ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING MYTH 1: Global temperatures are rising at a rapid, unprecedented rate. FACT: The HadCRUT3 surface temperature index, produced by the Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office and the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, shows warming to 1878, cooling to 1911, ...
    An average kiwiBy admin@averagekiwi.com
    3 days ago
  • A climate of tyranny
    For the past week, Extinction Rebellion has been peacefully protesting in London to demand action on climate change. The British government's response? Ban their protests:Police have banned Extinction Rebellion protests from continuing anywhere in London, as they moved in almost without warning to clear protesters who remained at the movement’s ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • Collins crushes climate
    An essay by Judith Collins MP reported on Carbon News yesterday seems to show an alarming shift in attitude within the National Party. Collins argues against the Zero Carbon Bill, the Paris Agreement, and downplays the magnitude of climate impacts. The Paris Agreement was adopted in December 2015 and ratified ...
    SciBlogsBy Robert McLachlan
    3 days ago
  • More disappointment
    When they were running for election, Labour promised to overhaul the Employment Relations Act and introduce fair pay agreements to set basic pay and conditions on an industry level, preventing bad employers from undercutting good ones. They followed this up by establishing a working group, which reported back in January ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • What do these mother-child studies really say about fluoridation?
    A list of indicators of bad science – many of these are found in articles promoted by anti-fluoride activists. Anti-fluoride activists have been pouring money into a scaremongering campaign warning pregnant women not to drink fluoridated water. They claim fluoride will lower the IQ of their future child. Fluoride ...
    3 days ago
  • Losing Labour’s Mills-Tone.
    Nothing Left To Say: Labour's pollster, Stephen Mills, remains swaddled-up in the comforting myths of the 1980s. As if the experience of Roger Douglas’s genuinely radical post-Muldoon policy agenda was literally a once-in-a-lifetime thing – as much as the party could possibly absorb for at least the next 50 years.MEMO ...
    3 days ago
  • Speaker: Disability and the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Historical Abuse
    The Royal Commission on abuse in care is very significant for the disability community. For many decades last century, thousands of disabled children, and adults who managed to survive, were locked away from families and communities. This was not for anything they had done, but for the perceived threat their ...
    3 days ago
  • Spain is not a democracy
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • UK Conservatives hate democracy
    With an unfair voting system, uneven electorates and an un-elected upper house, the UK's "democracy" is barely worthy of the name. But now the government wants to make it worse:The government has been accused of suppressing voters’ rights with the potential disenfranchisement of tens of thousands of people after plans ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • What is wrong with our building industry?
    Back in the 90's and early 2000's, the building industry was building leaky homes which should never have been granted consent. Now it turns out they've been building dodgy office blocks as well:New imaging technology has revealed hundreds of major buildings nationwide have defective or missing concrete or reinforcing steel. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Local bodies
    Local body election results were released over the weekend, to joy or despair depending on where you live. In Auckland, Phil Goff trounced John Tamihere, who is muttering darkly about running for Parliament again (but which party would want him?) Wellington is now a wholly-owned subsidiary of Weta Workshop, except ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • A future of government
      How could government evolve over the next decades? Reports of democracy’s imminent demise are greatly exaggerated.  However, satisfaction with political systems in many countries is low, so there is much to do for governments of all political stripes to improve relevance and trust. Digital technologies are seen as one ...
    SciBlogsBy Robert Hickson
    6 days ago
  • Speaker: Catalonia, interrupted
    Two years have now gone by since the Friday afternoon when my university-student son and I headed out of our Barcelona flat to a nearby primary school, designated as a polling station for the vote that was to be held the following Sunday: the referendum on Catalonia’s independence from Spain ...
    6 days ago
  • Sage Decisions Unwisely Over-Ruled.
    Overruled: The joint decision of Finance Minister, Grant Robertson (Labour) and his Associate Minister, David Parker (Labour) arguably the two most powerful ministers in Jacinda Ardern’s government, to grant OceanaGold the consents which Land Information Minister, Eugenie Sage (Greens) had earlier denied them, offers bitter proof of how hard fighting ...
    6 days ago
  • Government may ban voting in effort to get more people to do it
    More than double the number of people who will vote in this year’s local body elections have tried marijuana or urinated somewhere they shouldn’t have. As local elections look set for the lowest turnout in decades, with many regions falling well short of 40%, the Government is exploring a number ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    7 days ago
  • Woman: Deleted.
    A Statement on Abortion Law Reform by the Council of Disobedient Women   On the eve of bringing an end to antiquated, anti-women abortion laws Green MP Jan Logie intends to write women out of the Bill. With a stroke of the pen, the woke are aiming for total erasure ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    7 days ago
  • The Hollowest of Men Ride Again… SURPRISE!
    Musings continue apace about “the experienced businessman!” soon to be taking up a National Party MP position. Or to be more accurate, being parachuted into a seat to shut down their former MP Jamie-Lee Ross, who despite his own shortcomings shed at least some more light on the inner workings ...
    exhALANtBy exhalantblog
    7 days ago
  • Barbaric
    The Ugandan government wants to murder gay people:Uganda has announced plans to impose the death penalty on homosexuals. The bill, colloquially known as “Kill the Gays” in Uganda, was nullified five years ago on a technicality, but the government said on Thursday it plans to resurrect it within weeks. The ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Fighting Monsters.
    Freedom Of Speech? The Säuberung (cleansing by fire) was the work of the German Student Union which, on 10 May 1933, under the watchful eye of the Nazi Reichminister for Propaganda, Joseph Goebbels, consigned 25,000 books to the flames in a ritual exorcism of “un-German thought”. According to the logic of the ...
    1 week ago
  • The next wave of kaupapa Māori politics: its constitutional, it must be.
      “There can be no such thing as kaupapa Māori political parties or politics in Aotearoa” (Willie Jackson, Labour Party (2017). Māori TV, General/List Election Special) I begin with that claim because at the time, I was confounded at first that it fell out of Willie Jackson’s mouth, and then ...
    EllipsisterBy Ellipsister
    1 week ago
  • Night lights of NZ from orbit
    New Zealand has prided itself for decades with regard to its lack of pollution, and all will be aware that the ‘100% Pure New Zealand‘ meme is under threat through land, water and air pollution of various causes. There is another type of contamination that the country also faces: light ...
    SciBlogsBy Duncan Steel
    1 week ago
  • Reporters deliver uplifting news to fleeing Japanese residents: they won’t miss any rugby
    New Zealand’s media is doing its part in Japan, reassuring those in the path of the storm that they won’t miss any rugby while away from their flooded homes. New Zealand sports reporters stationed in Japan for the Rugby World Cup have had the rare and heartwarming opportunity to inform ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • Government in contentious discussions about whether to put surplus on red or black
    Regional Development Minister Shane Jones is the only Cabinet member in favour of putting it all on green. As Finance Minister Grant Robertson finds himself with an enormous $7.5 billion surplus, the Government has begun intense, at times contentious conversations about whether to put the money on red or black at ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • Jordanian teachers’ successful strike has lessons for here
    by Susanne Kemp At the start of September close to 100,000 school teachers went on strike in Jordan.  They demanded a 50% pay rise.  A pay rise actually agreed to by the regime back in 2014. In early October, however, in the face of government repression and threats, the teachers’ ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 week ago
  • Why some people still think climate change isn’t real
    Climate Explained is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, please send it to climate.change@stuff.co.nz Why do people still think climate change isn’t real? David ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    1 week ago
  • The SIS unlawfully spied on Nicky Hager
    Back in 2011, journalist Nicky Hager published Other People's Wars, an expose on NZDF's activities over the previous decade of the "war on terror". NZDF didn't like this, and especially didn't like the fact that it was base don leaks from their own. So, they had the SIS investigate him ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • October 2019 – Newsletter
    https://mailchi.mp/7d9133add053/closing-the-gap-october-2019-newsletter ...
    Closing the GapBy Tracey Sharp
    1 week ago
  • And they wonder why we think they’re environmental vandals…
    The Zero Carbon Bill is due back from select committee in two weeks, and will likely pass its final stages in November. So naturally, farmers are planning a hate-march against it. But they're not just demanding lower methane targets so they can keep on destroying the planet; they're also demanding ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: Paying the price in California
    Last year, California burned. This year, to stop it happening again (or rather, to stop themselves from being found liable if it happens again), Pacific Gas and Electric is cutting power to half the state for a week:Schools are closed. Traffic lights down. Tunnels dark. Businesses unopened. Hospitals running on ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Let’s Hear It For Up-Close-And-Personal, Hard-Copy Democracy!
    The Best Way: Missing from the on-line voting debate is any reference to the voting system that produces turn-out figures ranging from 77 to 93 percent of registered voters. The voting system used to collect and count the votes cast in our parliamentary elections. The system that involves citizens making ...
    1 week ago
  • 10/10: World Day Against the Death Penalty
    Today, October 10, is the world day against the death penalty. Out of 195 UN member states, 84 still permit capital punishment. Today is the day we work to change that. This year's theme is children. Having a parent sentenced to death or executed causes long-term trauma and stigmatization which ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Talking Freer Lives: a Marxist gender-critical perspective from Australia
    Among the great new bunch of political friends we have been making recently is the excellent Australian-based Marxist gender-critical site, Freer Lives.  So we asked the comrade who set up that blog to write something for Redline on the blog, himself, his analysis of the rise of gender politics and ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 week ago
  • Government spin accepted by union leadership
    by Don Franks  The Auckland City Mission is struggling with a 40 percent increase in demand for food parcels this year. A total of 23,020 were needed by June. Last month Missioner Chris Farrelly told the Herald the “cupboards are bare” and without an emergency food drive, he can’t see ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • Forbidden Thoughts
    by The Council of Disobedient Women   Massey Wellington Student Association had a sit-in today. Imagine a sit-in. On a campus. Against a women’s rights meeting. Did the ’60s really happen or did we fucking dream it? They gathered in the student square, an echo chamber. Sitting on soft pillows ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • Much love to my loyal Ukrainian readership
    For some reasons, my post about the mystery message from inside the Downing Street bunker seemed to catch people's attention.  Quite a lot of hits from NZ (unsurprisingly) and the USA (a bit more puzzlingly, but hi there, USAians!!) and 76 views from the Ukraine.I've celebrated my Ukrainian readers in ...
    1 week ago
  • Another day of bonkers GNUmours (again, sorry)
    First, almost a score of Labour MPs seem to have sent a letter to the EU basically begging them to accept a deal - any deal - just so Britain can get the Heck on with Brexiting instead of being trapped in limbo:
    To avoid no deal, deliver on the ...
    1 week ago
  • Labour vs working class immigrants – again!
    by Phil Duncan In 2016 the National-led government suspended the Parent Visa Category, through which migrants were able to bring their parents into New Zealand.  Since then over 5,700 people have been in immigration limbo, stuck on the visa wait list. Labour is now bringing back the scheme.  Well, sort ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 week ago
  • Speak Up for Women press statement: on Massey University and Feminism 2020
    The following was released yesterday (Tues, October 8) by the women’s liberation organisation Speak Up for Women. On 23 September Speak Up For Women announced that we would be holding an event at the Massey University Theaterette in Wellington. The event is called Feminism 2020. The intention of the event ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 week ago
  • Farmers support dirty rivers
    The government is currently consulting on plans to improve freshwater quality. So naturally, farmers oppose it:South Taranaki farmers are preparing to fight proposed national freshwater changes that some fear will bankrupt them. The Government's proposed National Environment Standard on Freshwater Management, released in September, rated the Waingongoro River as one ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • No-one cares about local government
    Yesterday was the last day for (reliably) posting your vote away in local body elections. Turnouts are mostly much lower than the equivalent time last year (Palmerston North is down 2.3%), and so naturally people are pushing their online-voting snake oil again. Because the online census worked so well, lets ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • The political ghosts of eugenics may matter more than the genetic
    This essay, on the political legacy of the eugenics movement, by Kenan Malik was originally published in the Observer on 6 October 2019, under the headline ‘The spirit of eugenics is still with us, as immigrants know to their cost’. Birth control. Intelligence tests. Town planning. Immigration controls. It’s striking how ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • “Surplus” again
    Another year, and the government has announced another enormous government "surplus". And just like last year, its nothing of the sort. When we have people homeless and sick and hungry, when we have schools and hospitals still falling down, when we have underpaid public servants and infrastucture unmaintained or unbuilt, ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Inside the Downing Street bunker
    James Forsyth at The Spectator (I know, I know) has tapped one of his contacts inside Number Ten for an insight into the Johnson administration's thinking and strategy.It is fascinating, unsettling and quite, quite mad.  Some key points:Negotiations have stalled and the Johnson administration are keen to blame the EU: ...
    1 week ago
  • Taking Control Of The Nation’s Story.
    Fatal Contact: With the arrival of captain James Cook in October 1769, the islands of what would become New Zealand ceased to be the preserve of Polynesian navigators and settlers and became a part of both the world’s map and the world’s history.THE MAORI NATIONALIST assault upon the historical meaning ...
    1 week ago
  • Are GNUs extinct?
    Another round of tactical talks about forming a Government of National Unity have come to nothing with the Liberal Democrats still refusing countenance putting Jeremy Corbyn into Downing Street:Opposition talks on Monday made little headway over when to try and vote down Boris Johnson's government and who might succeed him as ...
    1 week ago
  • Labour chickens out again
    When the government was elected, it promised to lead the way on electric vehicles, and specifically to make the government vehicle fleet emissions-free where-practicable by 2025.They lied:There are 15,473 vehicles in the government fleet and only 78 are electric. When the coalition Government came into power in late 2017, the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Transgender extremism, violence at work against feminist meeting at British Labour Party conference
    by Nick Rogers The debate around the meaning of sex and gender made an appearance at this year’s British Labour Party conference in Brighton. Women’s Place UK – an organisation that questions the demand that biological males who self-identify as woman should have access to women’s spaces, to all-women shortlists, ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 week ago
  • Rebelling in Wellington
    Yesterday I went down to Wellington to participate in the Extinction Rebellion protest. Its part of the latest global wave of XR actions, with actions happening all over the world. Some of those protests are massively disruptive: in Canada, XR is blocking major bridges, stopping people from getting to work. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • ‘The Workshop’ – Report: Talking about Poverty and Welfare Reform: A Guide to Strategies that ...
    The Workshop is a charitable trust for public good. The Workshop undertake research to find ways of communicating that will build support for the solutions that work to solve complex social and environmental problems. See their Report on Talking about Poverty and Welfare Reform below. ...
    Closing the GapBy Tracey Sharp
    2 weeks ago
  • Exclusive language
    What is language? We generally assume that it a facility unique to humans, allowing us to share what’s in and on our minds. We can tell of our plans, our past exploits, our knowledge. It also allows us to lie. And yet there are vast numbers of people we can’t ...
    SciBlogsBy Michael Corballis
    2 weeks ago
  • April 2018 – Submission to the NZ Govt Tax Working Group
    You can read our submission HERE ...
    Closing the GapBy Tracey Sharp
    2 weeks ago
  • 2018 – Submission to the NZ Government Tax Working Group
    Read our submission here ...
    Closing the GapBy Tracey Sharp
    2 weeks ago
  • Guardian: Poll shows DISASTER for Corbyn and the End of Times
    The Guardian - ever eager to forewarn of doom and disaster on the left - are leading with a new poll from Opinium, which puts the Conservatives 15% clear of Labour.Con 38% +2Lab 23% -1Lib Dem 15% -5Brexit 12% +1Green 4% +2This isn't good news, and it would be very ...
    2 weeks ago
  • How prostitution became the world’s most modern profession
    Being and Being Bought (Spinifex Press, 2013) by Kajsa Ekis Ekman  A synopsis and commentary of Chapters 1-2 by Daphna Whitmore Ekman, a Swedish journalist and critic, brings together a Marxist and feminist analysis of prostitution and surrogacy in this groundbreaking book She opens the discussion with a definition of ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • Clever legal fellow on Scottish challenge to Brexit
    I make no claims to having much legal knowledge,  so I defer to those trained in this area.I am very much enjoying this twitter stream from m'learned friend in Edinburgh, deciphering the legal arguments around the Scottish court challenge to Boris Johnson, based on the charmingly obscure principle of Nobile ...
    2 weeks ago
  • An Open Letter From Closed Minds.
    Ivory Folly? The University of Auckland’s Vice-Chancellor, Professor Stuart McCutcheon, upheld the right of the radical nationalist group, Action Zealandia to exercise their freedom of speech – not matter how distasteful that speech might be. A wiser community of students and scholars would have nodded their agreement and moved on. ...
    2 weeks ago

  • Bill to refresh superannuation system passes first reading
    Social Development Minister Carmel Sepuloni has welcomed the first reading of the New Zealand Superannuation and Veteran’s Pension Legislation Amendment Bill. “Every New Zealander has a stake in New Zealand Superannuation and Veteran’s Pension,” says Carmel Sepuloni. “They are our most common form of social assistance – nearly 800,000 New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    20 mins ago
  • Government announces next steps in fight against measles
    Babies in Auckland aged six months and over can receive a free vaccination and children will all have access to vaccines, Associate Minister of Health Julie Anne Genter announced today at Papatoetoe High School.   The move comes as part of Government efforts to step up the fight against measles. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    38 mins ago
  • Speech to the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs, Pacific Futures: Connections, Identity...
    ***Check against delivery*** Good morning. It is a pleasure to be here, and to have the honour of opening this important conference on behalf of the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. Let us take the opportunity to acknowledge all the people who have helped make today possible, including our special ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 hours ago
  • Police trial new response to high risk events
    Police Minister Stuart Nash says the safety of frontline officers and members of the public will be the focus of a new trial of specialist Police response teams in three of our largest urban centres. Police have this morning released details of an initiative to be trialled in Counties Manukau, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 hours ago
  • New awards celebrate fisheries sustainability
    The Minister of Fisheries is calling for entries for a new public award to celebrate innovation in our seafood sector. “I have established the Seafood Sustainability Awards to recognise and celebrate those throughout industry, tangata whenua and communities who demonstrate outstanding dedication and innovation towards the sustainability of New Zealand’s ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 hours ago
  • More progress for women and we can do more
    Minister for Women Julie Anne Genter welcomes leaders in the private sector taking action on closing their gender pay gaps to ensure a fairer workplace for all New Zealanders. Ms Genter today launched a new report, Addressing the gender pay gap and driving women’s representation in senior leadership, from the Champions for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    8 hours ago
  • Proposals to curb environmental damage help our coasts and the oceans
    Government Ministers today welcomed the release of a marine environment report highlighting the four key issues affecting our oceans, estuaries and coastlines.  The release underlines the importance of government proposals to combat climate pollution, ensure clean freshwater, protect biodiversity, make land use more sustainable, and reduce waste and plastic.    Environment ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    19 hours ago
  • New mental health facility for Waikato
    The Government has approved funding for a new acute mental health facility for Waikato which will provide better care and support to people with mental health and addiction issues. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Health Minister Dr David Clark announced the $100 million project to replace the aging Henry Rongomau ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    24 hours ago
  • 500 new te reo Māori champions in our classrooms
    The Government is making progress on its goal to integrate te reo Māori into education by 2025, with over 500 teachers and support staff already graduating from Te Ahu o te Reo Māori,  Associate Education Minister Kelvin Davis announced today. Kelvin Davis made the announcement at an awards ceremony in Waikanae today, for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Minister James Shaw welcomes 2018 Census first release
    Statistics Minister James Shaw has welcomed the first release of 2018 Census data. The first release of data today, 23 September, includes key data on population, regional growth, the number of homes and the size of different ethnic groups in New Zealand. Data from the 2018 Census will support the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Driving transparency, ethics and accountability in government use of algorithms
    Minister for Statistics James Shaw today announced a public consultation on a proposed algorithm charter for government agencies. The charter has been developed by the Government Chief Data Steward in response to growing calls for more transparency in government use of data. Computer algorithms – procedures or formulas for solving ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • New Zealand and the Netherlands working together on climate change
    Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor, Climate Change Minister James Shaw and visiting Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte co-hosted a business roundtable in Auckland this morning focused on working together to address climate change.  “The Netherlands is an important partner for New Zealand. We share a strong agricultural history. Sustainable agribusiness and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Protecting fairness for workers and businesses
    The Government is taking action to build an inclusive economy where more of us receive our fair share at work and businesses can compete on great products and services, not undercutting wages and conditions, Immigration and Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Iain Lees-Galloway says. Two consultations launched today seek feedback ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Indigenous Freshwater Fish Bill Passes
    The future for New Zealand’s threatened indigenous freshwater fish looks brighter with the passing of the Conservation (Indigenous Freshwater Fish) Amendment Bill in Parliament today said Minister of Conservation, Eugenie Sage. “Until now, our freshwater fish legislation has been 20 years out of date. We have lacked effective tools to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Kiwis to take part in world’s biggest earthquake drill
    At 1.30pm tomorrow, hundreds of thousands of Kiwis will join about 65 million people around the globe in ShakeOut, the world’s biggest earthquake drill. The annual drill is to remind people of the right action to take during an earthquake which is to Drop, Cover, Hold, and to practise their ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Rising wages and low inflation supporting Kiwis
    Kiwis are benefiting from higher wage growth and low inflation under the Coalition Government. Stats NZ data out today shows the rise in the cost of living remains low, as annual Consumers Price Index (CPI) inflation fell to 1.5% in September from 1.7% in June. “The low inflation comes as ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • NZ economy strong amid global headwinds
    New Zealand’s economic strength and resilience has been recognised in a major update on the state of the global economy. The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook released overnight shows a reduced global growth forecast over the next two years as issues like the US-China trade war and Brexit take hold. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Keeping New Zealanders safer with better counter-terrorism laws
    Justice Minister Andrew Little has today introduced a new Bill to prevent terrorism and support the de-radicalisation of New Zealanders returning from overseas. The Terrorism Suppression (Control Orders) Bill gives the New Zealand Police the ability to apply to the High Court to impose control orders on New Zealanders who ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Improved succession and dispute resolution core of Ture Whenua changes
    A Bill that proposes targeted changes to simplify the processes for Māori land owners when engaging with the Māori Land Court has had its First Reading today. “The approach taken by the Government is to ensure that the protection of Māori land remains a priority as we seek to improve ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Speech to CTU Biennial Conference
    Let me first thank all the new unionists and members in the room. There is nothing more important to improving people’s working lives than people making the decision to care, to get on board and help, to take up the reins and get involved. Congratulations to you. You bring the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Minister ensures continued Whenuapai flight operations
    Minister of Defence Ron Mark has signed a certificate exempting the activity of engine testing at Whenuapai Airbase from the Resource Management Act 1991. The Act gives the Minister of Defence the power to exempt activities for the purposes of national security.  The certificate will mean the recent Environment Court ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • NZ joins Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action
    Finance Minister Grant Robertson has announced New Zealand will join the Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action while attending APEC meetings in Chile. The objective of the 39 member Coalition is to share information and promote action to tackle climate change. It was formed in April this year, in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • CTU speech – DPM
    Ladies and gentlemen, NZCTU President Richard Wagstaff, members of respective unions – thank you for the invitation to speak to you today. This might be preaching to the choir, but the importance of trade unions in New Zealand’s historical arch is difficult to understate. And it is my belief that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Police Association Annual Conference
    "Let’s start by acknowledging that it has been a huge year. " Police Association Annual Conference James Cook Grand Chancellor Hotel Wellington Nau mai, haere mai. Tēnā koutou, tēnā koutou, ka nui te mihi, ki a koutou katoa. President of the Police Association, Chris Cahill; Members of the Association and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • New Zealand announces a further P-3 deployment in support of UN sanctions
    Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters and Minister of Defence Ron Mark have announced the New Zealand Government’s decision to again deploy a Royal New Zealand Air Force P-3K2 (P-3) maritime patrol aircraft to support the implementation of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions imposing sanctions against North Korea. New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • New Zealand deeply concerned at developments in north-east Syria
    Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters says New Zealand continues to have serious concerns for peace and stability in north-east Syria. “Recent reports that hundreds of ISIS-affiliated families have fled from a camp are deeply concerning from a humanitarian and security perspective”, Mr Peters says. “While we acknowledge Turkey’s domestic security ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government on high alert for stink bugs
    Biosecurity Minister Damien O’Connor is warning travelling Kiwis to be vigilant as the high-season for the crop-eating brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB) is under way. “We’re on high alert to stop BMSB arriving in NZ. The high season runs until April 30 and we’ve strengthened our measures to stop stink ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Better protections for students in halls of residence
    The Government is moving swiftly to change the law to improve the welfare and pastoral care of students living in university halls of residence and other tertiary hostels. Cabinet has agreed to several changes, including creating a new mandatory Code of Practice that sets out the duty of pastoral care ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • New trapping guide for community and expert trappers alike
    The Minister for Conservation Eugenie Sage has launched a new comprehensive trapping guide for community trappers to help them protect our native birds, plants and other wildlife, at Zealandia in Wellington today. ‘A practical guide to trapping’, has been developed by the Department of Conservation (DOC), and was launched during ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Widening Access to Contraceptives Welcomed
    Associate Health Minister Julie Anne Genter welcomes PHARMAC’s move to improve access to long-acting reversible contraception (LARCs). PHARMAC has today announced it will fund the full cost of Mirena and Jaydess for anyone seeking long term contraception, lifting previous restrictions on access to Mirena. “I welcome women having greater choices ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Major upgrade for Taranaki Base Hospital
    The Government has approved the next stage of a major redevelopment of Taranaki Base Hospital, which will deliver new and improved facilities for patients. Health Minister Dr David Clark has announced details of a $300 million dollar project to build a new East Wing at the New Plymouth hospital. It ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Extra support for rural families
    Extra funding will allow Rural Support Trusts to help farming families, says Minister for Rural Communities and Agriculture Damien O’Connor. “I know that rural families are worried about some of the challenges facing them, including the ongoing uncertainty created by the Mycoplasma bovis outbreak. “Those concerns sit alongside ongoing worries ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Howard Leaque Beekeeper programme graduation
    Thank you for the opportunity to be here to present certificates to the 16 graduates who have completed a beekeeping course delivered by the Howard League.  Let us start by acknowledging Auckland Prison’s Deputy Prison Director Tom Sherlock, and Acting Assistant Regional Commissioner of Corrections Northern Region Scott Walker - ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Finance Minister to attend APEC meetings
    Finance Minister Grant Robertson leaves this weekend to attend the APEC Finance Ministers meeting in Santiago, Chile. Discussions between APEC Finance Ministers at the meeting will include the effects of the current global economic uncertainty, risks for APEC economies and sustainable development of the region. While at APEC Grant Robertson ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Pacific languages are a source of strength, they ground us and build confidence
    The Minister for Pacific Peoples Aupito William Sio says for Pacific people, language can be a source of strength. It can help ground us and give us confidence. When we speak them, our languages provide us with an immediate and intimate access to our identity and our story - and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Major boost to support disabled people in sport and recreation
    The Coalition Government has announced an action plan to improve the wellbeing of disabled New Zealanders by addressing inequalities in play, active recreation and sport. The initiative includes training to develop a workforce that understands the needs of children and young people with a range of impairments, advocacy for fit ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • More prefab homes to be built as red tape cut
    The construction sector is being freed up to allow more homes to be built more quickly as the Government cuts through some of the red tape of the Building Act.  “Every New Zealander deserves a warm, dry, safe home and old inefficiencies in the Building Act make building slow and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Further details of Prince of Wales and Duchess of Cornwall visit to New Zealand
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has welcomed further details on the Prince of Wales and Duchess of Cornwall’s visit to New Zealand next month. Their Royal Highnesses will visit New Zealand from 17-23 November – their third joint visit to New Zealand and first in four years. They arrive in Auckland ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • O’Connor in Thailand to push for RCEP deal
    Minister of State for Trade and Export Growth and Minister of Agriculture, Damien O’Connor, heads to Thailand today to attend the final Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) Ministerial meeting, as negotiations enter their final stages. “The RCEP Agreement would anchor New Zealand in a regional agreement that covers 16 countries, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Young Pacific people can access earning and learning opportunities in Hawke’s Bay, Otago and South...
    Pacific young people living in the Hawke’s Bay, Southland and Otago regions will have access to support services that have proved successful in helping young people find new earning and learning opportunities. “Tupu Aotearoa is about changing Pacific young peoples’ lives. Our young people are talented, they are smart, they ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago