Race for 2011 wide open
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- Date published:
6:48 am, January 10th, 2011 - 68 comments
Categories: election 2011, polls -
Tags: horizon poll
Campbell has a good post on the problem of voters’ emotional reactions to Key and Goff as exemplified by the Sunday-Star Times Horizon poll (the striking thing is how little emotional response they elicit). I’ll look at the party numbers.
I don’t look at every poll in detail, usually just the Roy Morgans because they’re the only ones that are regular enough to give a good trend, but the Horizon poll is interesting because they ask the undecideds to decide. The aim is to get a better idea of how an election held today would actually turn out, although its inevitably very changeable because undecideds are quite likely to change their minds week to week.
The numbers are:
National: 40.4%
Labour: 28.3%
Greens: 8.9%
New Zealand First: 8.9%
ACT: 2%
Maori Party:1.7%
Progressives: 1.3%
United Future: 1.2%
Other/don’t know: 7.2%
On those numbers, (and assuming current electorates are held, except Wigram goes to Labour) the seats are:
National: 52
Labour: 37
Greens: 12
New Zealand First: 12
Maori Party: 5
ACT: 3
United Future: 2
It’s a 123 seat Parliament.
Majorities include:
National+NZF= 64 (1996-98 redux).
Nat+ACT+Maori Party+UF=62 (ie. same parties as now completely at Hone’s ransom).
Lab+Greens+NZF+UF=63 (essentially, 2005-2008 again but more powerful Greens and NZF)
National+ Labour = 89 (Matthew Hooton’s bizarre fantasy)
Now, I don’t expect National or Labour to actually poll that low or NZF, Progressives, United Future to get so high (I’m hopeful for the Greens). But the key point of the poll is clear – Key’s popularity is not enough for National to sleepwalk to victory. They’re not going to get a majority themselves, so ACT winning Epsom becomes crucial for National.
If National polls in that mid-40s danger zone then they won’t be able to make a majority with ACT and UF, they’ll need the Maori Party or NZF. That means, whereas Key can currently play ACT and the Maori Party off against each other, he would be reliant on the support of Hide and Harawira or Peters for every law he wants to push through. That’s a hell of an ask. And if those numbers work then there’s probably a Labour-led option with the same number or fewer parties that can also make a majority.
This clearly has National worried. The spin from Matthew Hooton is that it would be a travesty of MMP if Labour led a government on the numbers in the Horizon poll, for example. Hooton says such a result would “show that fringe parties with no public support, rather than the voters, get to choose the prime minister”. That’s rubbish, of course – the PM would have the support of a coalition of parties that a plurality/majority of voters voted for. That’s a more democratic situation than existed under FPP when a party could win fewer votes yet more seat and govern alone (1978, 1981), or win just 35% of the vote but govern alone (1993).
Hooton et al claim that Labour would have no mandate to govern if it didn’t get more votes than National. But the actual point is that it is the coalition of parties that has the mandate, and the support of the most people. It doesn’t matter whether or not the largest party is in the government. The government just needs to the confidence of parties that were given a majority of the seats by the voters.
One interesting thing that Horizon does is compare people’s current voting intention to their vote in 2008 (I assume this is one measure they use for weighting their results to get rid of bias). Here’s the table of results for vote in 2008 vs voting intention in 2011. The figure in bold in each column is the percentage of a party’s supporters in 2008 who intend to vote for them again, the one in red is the party they’ve lost most support to.
ACT is obviously in big trouble, shedding all but its very core support. The Maori Party, too, has shed a hell of a lot of its previous voters – mostly to National and New Zealand First. Greens voters are loyal as you would expect. National voters are highly loyal so far too although there is obviously quite a bit of disenchantment because they’ve lost far more supporters than they’ve picked up. Labour is picking up the the largest share of people who stayed away from the polls last election but is failing to attract this large group dissatisfied with National, or even retain own voters. That’s a failure of the leadership to supply a vision, which Campbell talks more about. Instead, the dissatisfied are increasingly looking to Peters and New Zealand First.
PS. Interesting to see Bill English’s advice to Labour in the Herald today: “It should have gone to the beach, acquired a reputation for being lazy but remorseful [the Nats think politics is all about benig lazy]. The punters would have accepted that. They would have said you know you are irrelevant and you’ve figured out why I chucked you out. Then Labour could “come back all fresh and keen in election year, bounce up to 35 per cent and they are away”. [So, English sees Labour at 35% as the danger zone, that’s where they are in the Roy Morgans]
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Papā te whatitiri, hikohiko te uira, i kanapu ki te rangi, i whētuki i raro rā, rū ana te whenua e. Uea te pou o tōku whare kia tū tangata he kapua whakairi nāku nā runga o Taupiri. Ko taku kiri ka tōkia ki te anu mātao. E te iwi ...1 week ago
- Release: Gaps still to be addressed in callouts response
The Government must guarantee New Zealanders will not be at risk after making changes to the way mental health callouts are handled. ...1 week ago
- Poroporoaki: Kiingi Tuheitia passing
Haere e te Kīngi o te kotahitangi Haere ki o nui, ki o rahi I te pō ...1 week ago
- Green Party pays respects to Kiingi Tuuheitia
The Green Party is paying tribute to the Māori King, Kiingi Tuuheitia Pootatau Te Wherowhero XVII, after he passed away earlier this morning. ...1 week ago
- Potaka Brings Whakaata Māori to its Knees
Today’s Whakaata Māori announcement is yet another colossal failure from Minister Potaka, who has turned his back on te reo Māori, forcing a channel offline, putting whānau out of jobs, and cutting Māori content, says Te Pāti Māori. “A Senior Māori Minister has turned his back on Te Reo Māori. ...1 week ago
- Release: National restricts access to disability care homes
With disability communities still reeling from the diminishing of Whaikaha, a leaked document now reveals another blow with National restricting access to residential care homes. ...1 week ago
- Release: Govt must help save 230 manufacturing jobs
Labour is calling on the Government and Mercury Energy to find a solution to the proposed Winstone Pulp mill closure and save 230 manufacturing jobs. ...1 week ago
- Govt shirks its responsibility to Whakaata Māori
The Green Party has called out the Government for allowing Whakaata Māori to effectively collapse to a shell of its former self as job cuts and programming cuts were announced at the broadcaster today. ...1 week ago
- NZ First Member’s Bill To Disestablish Auckland Transport
Today New Zealand First has introduced a Member’s Bill that will restore democratic control over transport management in Auckland City by disestablishing Auckland Transport (AT) and returning control to Auckland Council. The ‘Local Government (Auckland Council) (Disestablishment of Auckland Transport) Amendment Bill’ intends to restore democratic oversight, control, and accountability ...1 week ago - Release: PM fails in constitutional role and leadership
The failure of the Prime Minister to condemn his Minister for personally attacking the judiciary is another example of this Government riding roughshod over important constitutional rules. ...1 week ago
- Waititi urges Rotorua Lakes Council to immediately stop works at Lake Rotokākahi
Te Pāti Māori co-leader and Member of Parliament for Waiariki, which includes Rotorua, has written to Rotorua Lakes Councillors requesting they immediately stop sewerage piping works at Lake Rotokākahi in Rotorua. “Mana whenua have been urging Rotorua Lakes Council to stop works and look at alternative plans to protect the ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Patient care at risk from redundancies
Patient care could suffer as a result of further cuts to the health system, which could lose thousands of staff who keep our hospitals and clinics running. ...2 weeks ago
- Greens call on Govt to wake up on child poverty
The Green Party says the latest statistics on child poverty in this country highlight the callous approach that the Government is taking on this issue of national shame. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Police are off the beat under National
Foot patrols around the country have decreased 15 percent since National took office, despite National’s Mark Mitchell claiming otherwise. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Climate denial is an insult to Pacific leaders
Winston Peters’ climate denialism at the Pacific Islands’ Forum is an embarrassing new low. ...2 weeks ago
- Govt must end solitary confinement
The Green Party is urging the Government to end the use of solitary confinement within our prisons after new research revealed some prisoners have been held in confinement for more than 900 days. ...2 weeks ago
- Fossil fuels never the answer in climate crisis
The Government’s moves to enable the import of Liquefied Natural Gas is another step away from the sustainable and affordable energy network that this country needs. ...2 weeks ago
- Government must respect Court’s Uber employee decision
Today’s court ruling upholding the rights of Uber drivers is a message to the Government that it must not tamper with employment protections. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Uber court decision recognises workers’ rights
The Court of Appeal decision that Uber drivers are entitled to employee rights such as minimum wage, sick leave, holiday pay and collective bargaining is welcome news for the drivers involved and their unions. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour calls on Govt to divest from illegal settlements
The Labour Party is calling on the Government to tell the two major wealth funds, the NZ Super Fund and ACC, to withdraw investments from companies listed by the United Nations as complicit in Israel’s illegal settlements in the Occupied Palestinian Territories. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Govt backtrack on fast-track still not enough
Labour welcomes news that the National Government is backing down on its reckless proposal to give Ministers final sign-off on significant projects, but it’s still not enough. ...2 weeks ago
- Fast track still on track to environmental destruction
Our environment remains at risk despite the Government's proposed changes to its controversial fast-track legislation. ...2 weeks ago
- Ohinemuri River pollution highlights mining risks
The harrowing images of the severely polluted Ohinemuri River caused by an old mining shaft could become a more common occurrence under the mining regime the Government is looking to roll out. ...2 weeks ago
- Govt Incarcerating our Mokopuna into a Failed System
Information released by the Minister for Children has revealed that almost 800 mokopuna Māori have been taken by the state this year, putting it on track for the largest displacement of tamariki Māori since the introduction of Section 7AA in 2019. “Oranga Tamariki is running a crusade against whakapapa Māori ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Chris Hipkins’ Speech to Local Government New Zealand
...2 weeks ago
- Release: Regional deals can’t leave ratepayers picking up the bill again
On the back of a patronising speech to local councils the Government has rushed out an announcement on regional and city deals that leaves out the crucial component – funding. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Govt in thrall to tobacco lobbyists
The National Government has put the interests of tobacco lobbyists ahead of New Zealanders and their health. ...2 weeks ago
- Government progresses response to Abuse in Care recommendations
A Crown Response Office is being established within the Public Service Commission to drive the Government’s response to the Royal Commission into Abuse in Care. “The creation of an Office within a central Government agency was a key recommendation by the Royal Commission’s final report. “It will have the mandate ...2 days ago - Passport wait times back on-track
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says passport processing has returned to normal, and the Department of Internal Affairs [Department] is now advising customers to allow up to two weeks to receive their passport. “I am pleased that passport processing is back at target service levels and the Department ...2 days ago
- New appointments to the FMA board
Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister has today announced three new appointments and one reappointment to the Financial Markets Authority (FMA) board. Tracey Berry, Nicholas Hegan and Mariette van Ryn have been appointed for a five-year term ending in August 2029, while Chris Swasbrook, who has served as a board member ...2 days ago
- District Court judges appointed
Attorney-General Hon Judith Collins today announced the appointment of two new District Court judges. The appointees, who will take up their roles at the Manukau Court and the Auckland Court in the Accident Compensation Appeal Jurisdiction, are: Jacqui Clark Judge Clark was admitted to the bar in 1988 after graduating ...2 days ago
- Government makes it faster and easier to invest in New Zealand
Associate Minister of Finance David Seymour is encouraged by significant improvements to overseas investment decision timeframes, and the enhanced interest from investors as the Government continues to reform overseas investment. “There were about as many foreign direct investment applications in July and August as there was across the six months ...2 days ago
- New Zealand to join Operation Olympic Defender
New Zealand has accepted an invitation to join US-led multi-national space initiative Operation Olympic Defender, Defence Minister Judith Collins announced today. Operation Olympic Defender is designed to coordinate the space capabilities of member nations, enhance the resilience of space-based systems, deter hostile actions in space and reduce the spread of ...3 days ago
- Government commits to ‘stamping out’ foot and mouth disease
Biosecurity Minister Andrew Hoggard says that a new economic impact analysis report reinforces this government’s commitment to ‘stamp out’ any New Zealand foot and mouth disease incursion. “The new analysis, produced by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research, shows an incursion of the disease in New Zealand would have ...3 days ago
- Improving access to finance for Kiwis
5 September 2024 The Government is progressing further reforms to financial services to make it easier for Kiwis to access finance when they need it, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says. “Financial services are foundational for economic success and are woven throughout our lives. Without access to finance our ...3 days ago
- Prime Minister pays tribute to Kiingi Tuheitia
As Kiingi Tuheitia Pootatau Te Wherowhero VII is laid to rest today, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has paid tribute to a leader whose commitment to Kotahitanga will have a lasting impact on our country. “Kiingi Tuheitia was a humble leader who served his people with wisdom, mana and an unwavering ...3 days ago
- Resource Management reform to make forestry rules clearer
Forestry Minister Todd McClay today announced proposals to reform the resource management system that will provide greater certainty for the forestry sector and help them meet environmental obligations. “The Government has committed to restoring confidence and certainty across the sector by removing unworkable regulatory burden created by the previous ...3 days ago
- More choice and competition in building products
A major shake-up of building products which will make it easier and more affordable to build is on the way, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “Today we have introduced legislation that will improve access to a wider variety of quality building products from overseas, giving Kiwis more choice and ...3 days ago
- Joint Statement between the Republic of Korea and New Zealand 4 September 2024, Seoul
On the occasion of the official visit by the Right Honourable Prime Minister Christopher Luxon of New Zealand to the Republic of Korea from 4 to 5 September 2024, a summit meeting was held between His Excellency President Yoon Suk Yeol of the Republic of Korea (hereinafter referred to as ...4 days ago
- Comprehensive Strategic Partnership the goal for New Zealand and Korea
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with the President of the Republic of Korea, Yoon Suk Yeol. “Korea and New Zealand are likeminded democracies and natural partners in the Indo Pacific. As such, we have decided to advance discussions on elevating the bilateral relationship to a Comprehensive ...4 days ago
- International tourism continuing to bounce back
Results released today from the International Visitor Survey (IVS) confirm international tourism is continuing to bounce back, Tourism and Hospitality Minister Matt Doocey says. The IVS results show that in the June quarter, international tourism contributed $2.6 billion to New Zealand’s economy, an increase of 17 per cent on last ...4 days ago
- Government confirms RMA reforms to drive primary sector efficiency
The Government is moving to review and update national level policy directives that impact the primary sector, as part of its work to get Wellington out of farming. “The primary sector has been weighed down by unworkable and costly regulation for too long,” Agriculture Minister Todd McClay says. “That is ...4 days ago
- Weak grocery competition underscores importance of cutting red tape
The first annual grocery report underscores the need for reforms to cut red tape and promote competition, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says. “The report paints a concerning picture of the $25 billion grocery sector and reinforces the need for stronger regulatory action, coupled with an ambitious, economy-wide ...4 days ago
- Government moves to lessen burden of reliever costs on ECE services
Associate Education Minister David Seymour says the Government has listened to the early childhood education sector’s calls to simplify paying ECE relief teachers. Today two simple changes that will reduce red tape for ECEs are being announced, in the run-up to larger changes that will come in time from the ...4 days ago
- Over 2,320 people engage with first sector regulatory review
Regulation Minister David Seymour says there has been a strong response to the Ministry for Regulation’s public consultation on the early childhood education regulatory review, affirming the need for action in reducing regulatory burden. “Over 2,320 submissions have been received from parents, teachers, centre owners, child advocacy groups, unions, research ...4 days ago
- Government backs women in horticulture
“The Government is empowering women in the horticulture industry by funding an initiative that will support networking and career progression,” Associate Minister of Agriculture, Nicola Grigg says. “Women currently make up around half of the horticulture workforce, but only 20 per cent of leadership roles which is why initiatives like this ...4 days ago
- Government to pause freshwater farm plan rollout
The Government will pause the rollout of freshwater farm plans until system improvements are finalised, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay, Environment Minister Penny Simmonds and Associate Environment Minister Andrew Hoggard announced today. “Improving the freshwater farm plan system to make it more cost-effective and practical for farmers is a priority for this ...5 days ago
- Milestone reached for fixing the Holidays Act 2003
Minister for Workplace Relations and Safety Brooke van Velden says yesterday Cabinet reached another milestone on fixing the Holidays Act with approval of the consultation exposure draft of the Bill ready for release next week to participants. “This Government will improve the Holidays Act with the help of businesses, workers, and ...5 days ago
- New priorities to protect future of conservation
Toitū te marae a Tāne Mahuta me Hineahuone, toitū te marae a Tangaroa me Hinemoana, toitū te taiao, toitū te tangata. The Government has introduced clear priorities to modernise Te Papa Atawhai - The Department of Conservation’s protection of our natural taonga. “Te Papa Atawhai manages nearly a third of our ...5 days ago
- Faster 110km/h speed limit to accelerate Kāpiti
A new 110km/h speed limit for the Kāpiti Expressway Road of National Significance (RoNS) has been approved to reduce travel times for Kiwis travelling in and out of Wellington, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Boosting economic growth and productivity is a key part of the Government’s plan to rebuild the economy. ...5 days ago
- IVL increase to ensure visitors contribute more to New Zealand
The International Visitor Conservation and Tourism Levy (IVL) will be raised to $100 to ensure visitors contribute to public services and high-quality experiences while visiting New Zealand, Minister for Tourism and Hospitality Matt Doocey and Minister of Conservation Tama Potaka say. “The Government is serious about enabling the tourism sector ...5 days ago
- Delivering priority connections for the West Coast
A record $255 million for transport investment on the West Coast through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will strengthen the region’s road and rail links to keep people connected and support the region’s economy, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “The Government is committed to making sure that every ...6 days ago
- Road and rail reliability a focus for Wellington
A record $3.3 billion of transport investment in Greater Wellington through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will increase productivity and reduce travel times, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Delivering infrastructure to increase productivity and economic growth is a priority for our Government. We're focused on delivering transport projects ...6 days ago
- Record investment to boost economic and housing growth in the Waikato
A record $1.9 billion for transport investment in the Waikato through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will create a more efficient, safe, and resilient roading network that supports economic growth and productivity, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “With almost a third of the country’s freight travelling into, out ...6 days ago
- Building reliable and efficient roading for Taranaki
A record $808 million for transport investment in Taranaki through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will support economic growth and productivity, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Taranaki’s roads carry a high volume of freight from primary industries and it’s critical we maintain efficient connections across the region to ...6 days ago
- Supporting growth and resilience in Otago and Southland
A record $1.4 billion for transport investment in Otago and Southland through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will create a more resilient and efficient network that supports economic growth and productivity, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Transport is a critical enabler for economic growth and productivity in Otago ...6 days ago
- Delivering connected and resilient roading for Northland
A record $991 million for transport investment in Northland through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will strengthen the region’s connections and support economic growth and productivity, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “We are committed to making sure that every transport dollar is spent wisely on the projects and ...6 days ago
- Top of the South to benefit from reliable transport infrastructure
A record $479 million for transport investment across the top of the South Island through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will build a stronger road network that supports primary industries and grows the economy, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “We’re committed to making sure that every dollar is ...6 days ago
- Government delivering reliable roads for Manawatū-Whanganui
A record $1.6 billion for transport investment in Manawatū-Whanganui through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will strengthen the region’s importance as a strategic freight hub that boosts economic growth, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Delivering infrastructure to increase productivity and economic growth is a priority for our Government. ...6 days ago
- Restoring connections in Hawke’s Bay
A record $657 million for transport investment in the Hawke’s Bay through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will support recovery from cyclone damage and build greater resilience into the network to support economic growth and productivity, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “We are committed to making sure that ...6 days ago
- Transport resilience a priority for Gisborne
A record $255 million for transport investment in Gisborne through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will support economic growth and restore the cyclone-damaged network, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “With $255 million of investment over the next three years, we are committed to making sure that every transport ...6 days ago
- Prioritising growth and reduced travel times in Canterbury
A record $1.8 billion for transport investment Canterbury through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will boost economic growth and productivity and reduce travel times, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Christchurch is the economic powerhouse of the South Island, and transport is a critical enabler for economic growth and ...6 days ago
- Supporting growth and freight in the Bay of Plenty
A record $1.9 billion for transport investment in the Bay of Plenty through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will boost economic growth and unlock land for thousands of houses, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Transport is a critical enabler for economic growth and productivity in the Bay of ...6 days ago
- Getting transport back on track in Auckland
A record $8.4 billion for transport investment in Auckland through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will deliver the infrastructure our rapidly growing region needs to support economic growth and reduce travel times, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Aucklanders rejected the previous government’s transport policies which resulted in non-delivery, phantoms projects, ...6 days ago
- Record investment to get transport back on track
A record $32.9 billion investment in New Zealand’s transport network through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will create a more reliable and efficient transport network that boosts economic growth and productivity, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “New Zealanders rejected the previous government’s transport policies which resulted in non-delivery, ...6 days ago
- Consultation is open on gambling harm strategy
Minister for Mental Health Matt Doocey has welcomed the start of Gambling Harm Awareness Week by encouraging New Zealanders to have their say on the next three-year strategy to prevent and minimise gambling harm. “While many New Zealanders enjoy gambling as a pastime without issue, the statistics are clear that ...6 days ago
- JOINT STATEMENT FOR THE OFFICIAL VISIT OF NEW ZEALAND PRIME MINISTER CHRISTOPHER LUXON
1. Prime Minister YAB Dato’ Seri Anwar Ibrahim hosted Prime Minister Rt. Hon Christopher Luxon on an Official Visit to Malaysia from 1 to 3 September 2024. Both leaders expressed appreciation for enduring and warm bilateral ties over 67 years of diplomatic relations. The Malaysia – New Zealand Strategic Partnership 2. The ...6 days ago
- New Zealand takes another step towards US space operations
Analysis - Space has rapidly become more hostile for geopolitical reasons, but what are the threats, and what is New Zealand doing to assess them? ...1 hour ago - Business case to replace NZDF’s Boeing 757s in the works, as repair costs skyrocket
The planes have been plagued by multiple breakdowns, in one case nearly derailing a prime ministerial trade mission. ...4 hours ago
- Mediawatch: Kiingi Tuheitia’s tangihanga – epic broadcast marks new epoch for te ao Māori
“Anticipation is growing. The warriors are ready. They’re preparing themselves. The paddlers are already on their waka,” Scotty Morrison, alongside veteran journalist Tini Molyneux, told viewers from the banks of the Waikato River. It was Thursday, and the body of Kiingi Tuheitia was being escorted to the barge to take ...6 hours ago - Media focus on small stuff in government’s big-budget transport plan
Some media queried how the $33b national transport plan will be funded. Others highlighted aspects that barely dent the budget. ...8 hours ago
- In pictures: Commonwealth Youth Parliament takes over the House
A Queenslander, a Falkland Islander and a Gibraltarian walk into a debating chamber. It's no joke - just the reality at Parliament this week ...11 hours ago
- An Ode to .. King Luxon
Orient ExpressHot air balloon Number OneIs prepared by the Royal Hot Air Balloon ForceFor Prime Balloonist, King Luxon,And his trade delegation to the Orient.But lo! With a splutter and a puffHot air balloon Number One folds in on itselfAnd deflates onto the field.King Luxon sighs and books a ticketOn a ...12 hours ago - Mike Joy on his memoir and butting heads with Sir John Key
The scientist whose work prompted Sir John Key in 2011 to compare academics to lawyers says it was a "surreal" and "scary" time. ...23 hours ago
- Results of school property inquiry yet to go to Cabinet
The inquiry was completed months ago, but the minister of education is still weighing up its recommendations. ...1 day ago
- ACT pledges pushback on supermarket crackdown
Further regulation of the supermarket sector may hit a snag in the form of David Seymour, who is mounting strong opposition to any such move. ...1 day ago
- The Weekend: Paralympics appreciation vs everyday apathy
Madeleine Chapman reflects on the week that was. The Paralympic Games end tomorrow after nearly two weeks of incredible athletic feats. On a purely results basis, New Zealand hasn’t done that well. As of writing (Friday), we’re yet to win a gold medal and are placed 61st out of 74 ...2 days ago - ‘I wish I’d never thought of it’: The Blue Monkey on Suzanne Paul’s back
The infomercial queen looks back on an eventful life in TV, filled with Coronation Street, The Blue Monkey and a lot of reality television. Suzanne Paul is a New Zealand television icon. Born and raised in England, Paul worked around the world for 20 years before she arrived in Aotearoa ...2 days ago
- Auckland’s secondhand bookshops, ranked and reviewed
Shanti Mathias visits and ranks the crème de la crème of Auckland’s secondhand bookshops. From Ponsonby to Grafton to Devonport to Parnell, Auckland has some lovely secondhand bookshops, many of which are huge and deserve to be browsed for hours, embracing the way that all bookstores, but especially secondhand bookstores, ...2 days ago
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Skimmed Alive, Earl Gravy or Peanut Safari, there’s nothing like making someone a cup of tea exactly how they like it. The Spinoff Essay showcases the best essayists in Aotearoa, on topics big and small. Made possible by the generous support of our members. ‘Corrie climax sparks power surge.’ That was ...2 days ago
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Damian Alexander and Shelton Woolright of Blindspott share their perfect weekend playlist. Few embody the “west is best” mindset as well as Blindspott. So, it’s probably a good thing the bogan rockers will be able to let their West Auckland sensibilities loose as a part of a supergroup comprised of ...2 days ago
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It’s been a brutal year for New Zealand television, with the demise of Three’s Newshub news operation, costing 300-odd jobs; and the canning of TVNZ’s highly rated Fair Go, Sunday and Late News programmes.It’s also been announced the long-running soap Shortland Street will be cut to three nights a week, ...2 days ago
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MONDAYGreat news for the nation! In a gesture that I know will resonate with ordinary Kiwis who look to the Prime Minister as an example of someone who can deliver a set of deliverables that will take root and come to pass, I have sold one of my nine or ...2 days ago
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“See that car, ow?” A lime-green Beetle puttered into the distance, barely making the speed limit. “Lady in the front winked at me. Almost crossed the centre line she was so lost in my eyes.”“Bro, that’s the lifeguard. She’s seventy.”Māui shrugged his shoulders. “My swag crosses generational lines. What can ...2 days ago
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The government is making a poor economic move with its plan to import natural gas according to Saul Griffith, renewable energy advocate and former climate advisor to Joe Biden. Saul Griffith is an author, inventor, scientist and co-founder of Rewiring America. A few years back he managed to convince ...2 days ago
- New measurements reveal the enormous halos that shroud all galaxies in the universe
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Deanne Fisher, Associate Professor of Astronomy, Swinburne University of Technology The starry part of every galaxy is surrounded by a vast shroud of gas extending out for more than 100,000 light years. Cristy Roberts / ANU / ASTRO 3D Have you ever ...2 days ago
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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Moya Costello, Adjunct Lecturer, Southern Cross University Opera Australia My first curiosities about the new opera Eucalyptus, an adaptation of Murray Bail’s multi-award-winning 1998 novel, were regarding how Ellen and the many stories told to her by her ultimately successful suitor ...2 days ago
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Analysis - The government's $32.9 billion transport spend-up, a big hike in the tourist levy, and the prime minister's ferry-free visit to South Korea. ...2 days ago
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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anastasia Powell, Professor, Family and Sexual Violence, RMIT University A new A$4.7 billion national funding package announced today will deliver much needed resources to address family and sexual violence. For years, specialist support services, community legal services, therapeutic responses and men’s ...2 days ago
- Residency granted for Brazilian couple whose immigration adviser forgot to apply for visa
Brazilians Newton Santos and Nubia Chiarelli had been fighting to get their case reviewed since 2021. ...2 days ago
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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alan Collins, Professor of Geology, University of Adelaide Two tectonic plates meet in Thingvellir National Park, Iceland. VisualProduction/Shutterstock Using information from inside the rocks on Earth’s surface, we have reconstructed the plate tectonics of the planet over the last 1.8 billion years. ...2 days ago
- Far North District councillors vote unanimously to retain their Māori ward following impassioned me...
The council's strongly worded resolution also called on the CEO to explore the legal implications of not holding a binding poll as required. ...2 days ago
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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Laura Revell, Associate Professor in Environmental Physics, University of Canterbury NASA via Getty Images At this time of year, as the sun rises over Antarctica, a “hole” opens up in Earth’s ozone layer. The ozone layer is a vital planetary boundary ...2 days ago
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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bradley J. Moggridge, Professor of Science, University of Technology Sydney Bradley Moggridge, Author provided Kamilaroi Country lies in far northwest New South Wales, past Tamworth and crossing over the Queensland border. Here, the bunyip bird (Australasian bittern, Botaurus poiciloptilus), and the ...2 days ago
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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vaughan Cruickshank, Senior Lecturer in Health and Physical Education, University of Tasmania Thousands of amazing athletes have competed in the Paralympics Games over the past 64 years. But who are the greatest of these Paralympians? And how would you decide? ...2 days ago
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A new poem by Josiah Morgan. Riding in Cars with (Mostly Straight) Boys titled after a play by Sam Brooks I Back then Kade had a death wish, driving over a hundred an hour after school, past young lads, parents, through the suburbs, cop cars, girl friends. I drove too, ...2 days ago
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Opinion: It was February 9 of this year that Newsroom revealed work had stopped on a big Du Val apartment project in Auckland as contractors threatened legal action.We had visited the Verge site in Mt Wellington. Scaffolders who said they hadn’t been paid were removing their gear. The site was otherwise empty ...2 days ago
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The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington. AUCKLAND 1 Pachinko by Min Jin Lee (Head of Zeus, $25) Min Jin Lee’s novel was published in ...2 days ago
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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Erica Mealy, Lecturer in Computer Science, University of the Sunshine Coast The Australian government this week released voluntary artificial intelligence (AI) safety standards, alongside a proposals paper calling for greater regulation of the use of the fast-growing technology in high-risk situations. ...2 days ago
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Firstly, its good for National to be confronted with some concerning poll results. Likely to be a kick in the pants that stops them from becoming complacent.
Secondly, not sure how much can be read into intended polling by undecideds. In respect to the Greens for instance, they regularly disappoint with respect to turn-out in comparison to poll results amongst decided voters let alone undecided ones (I suspect a lot of their voters are too mellowed out on weed to bother getting out and voting :smile:). Also, given the demographic NZ First appeals to, a lot of their voters will be dead or demented by the next election! Also, people may state intentions at this time-frame, and then revert to the tried and true by election day. For instance, I have toyed with voting Act during some election cycles but end up voting National.
– So you think not much can be read into ‘intended voting’ by undecideds?. Sounds a lot better to go with that then what other polling companies had been doing which was just to decide for them ( ie allocate undecided votes in line with the rest of the results).
Certainly brings Nationals numbers back to earth to around 40% which is in line with reality based on previous elections
Hooton et al claim that Labour would have no mandate to govern if it didn’t get more votes than National.
I assume Hooton etc.’s comments would apply in all Australian Federal Elections as well. Therefore if the ALP has more votes than the Liberal Party, then ALP has the right to form a government, even if Coalition has a majority?
Go back and do some POLS103 with Therese Arsenau Matt.
Not exactly sure how “concerning poll results” are going to assist Bill and John to come up with an economic plan for New Zealand, help them raise workers’ wages, or reduce youth unemployment.
Ahhh. It’s not, is it.
But sure, at the end of the day this is just another poll, one of a score before election day, not something to be taken too seriously.
Hmm, Labour retaining only 67.8% of it’s support from 2008. Hardly a number to be proud about.
Interesting is also the Maori Party with a huge shift towards National and NZ First. You would have thought that Labour would pick up most of those voters if they shift away.
The right’s response to this poll is interesting to say the least. Could it be that they prefer to sleepwalk to victory in the cozy glow that is John Key’s leadership? Do they rely on the landline dominated polls to create an air of invincibility that all that smile and wave has to do to win is precisely that?
And are they afraid about such things as a real debate on what state our country is in and where we are going wrong with the fear that this is a debate that they will lose?
I am sure that the poll margins will tighten and when they do the Nats’ response will be interesting.
All that I can say about Double Dipton’s Herald comment is that he tried this in 1999 and it clearly did not work then.
The table at the end is quite odd for Progressives. 11.4% and 5.60% going to Act and National, and only 9.9% going to Labour? Seems out of place.
Other interesting points are 15.1% for Green ‘chose not to vote’ and 41.6% for National ‘not eligible to vote’. Why are so many kids voting National when it’s not in their best interest (see youth unemployment)?
“Why are so many kids voting National when it’s not in their best interest (see youth unemployment)?”
Possibly because you register for the panel put shit answers into the survey and go into the draw to win an ipad.
you can lie in answer to any survey. why do you think this one is particularly vulnerable?
I don’t – I treat all surveys with a degree of scepticism.
Apart from the political tragics and the meeeeedia most people wait until election night/day after the election before commenting on the validity or otherwise of the various poolsters
It’s just I haven’t seen you dismissing all polls on the basis that the participants probably lied.
Anyway, if some do lie they’re unlikely to lie in a particular pattern but, rather, largely cancel each other out while adding a little more noise to the sample.
OK have it your way, this poll’s clearly brilliant Winston will get back in and be kingmaker along with the greens and lots of kids want to vote for National. All polls are brilliant and we must live our lives by them.
Christ, you’re childish. Either you have a serious objection to this poll’s methodology compared to others or you don’t.
Having a cry when the flaw in your objection is pointed out does little to recommend you.
Not at all I just got fed up with debating a poll which for all effective purposes is irrelevant and out of kilter with others – anyhoo who really gives a toss what the polls are saying before the election is announced and campaigning gets underway.
[lprent: Fixed your e-mail typo. ]
You picked up on Farrars talking points dispatch well.
Youth seek change, National preached change, Obama was preaching change. So
last election Labour were see as old, not young. So surely young people voted for
change, for young looking Key? Now Key looks tired, boring and not very good at
the job of change. It would be interesting to see how Auckland Council election
extrapolates to a general election.
I await yet another post celebrating this poll as a victory for the left, set against tirades of silence for the actually scientific random sample polls that show the true story.
The consensus over the summer barbecues is that National have made a very good start and deserve another term. They inherited the worst recession in living memory yet avoided huge cuts in public spending and they stopped unemployment reaching double digits. They have actually INCREASED spending in early childhood education. They have brought in easy to understand school reports and increased places in tertiary education. They have transferred investment from housing to exporting. They have brought in the 90 day chance to prove yourself law to give workers a fair go.
A discredited online panel poll (different from every other poll) makes another shock pronouncement . No one believes it.
A more accurate poll now and in November would be approximately Nat 50% Labour 34% Green 6% Act 2.5% Winston <2% Maori Party 2.5%
those solo barbies must get lonely, Fisi. But at least you have first dibs on the sausages.
Which country are you talking about here Fis? Its not one I’m familiar with.
More outright lies from Fisi as he defends his psychopathic heroes, the National Party.
Nope, they’ve cut it by about $300m
Keep up with the play Draco, ECE spending has INCREASED
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA1005/S00292.htm
funding to parts of ECE increased (mostly Maori providers if memory serves), funded by cutting funding to most ECE providers.
Or do you think that half of ECE providers are wrong when they say that funding cus are forcing them to increase charges? http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/4192635/Funding-cuts-push-kids-out-of-daycare
National is spending more government money on ECE in 2011 than in 2010. FACT.
Yeah, lets not bother with the details like where the money is actually going. All that matters is that funding has increased, nothing else.
Apparently Fis your facts are on the list right next to “you are better paid under National” and “we are closing the gap with Australia”.
Let’s see what the electorate thinks of that later this year.
Does it not concern you that incentives have changed from providers having qualified staff in all centres to throwing money around to ensure that lower socioeconomic areas effectively have glorified babysitters to provide childcare?
Sorry the incentive now is for all ECE providers to run as babysitting centres.
What!! shrinking GDP and $15bill govt deficit was part of the plan?
Its not like they didn’t know what was facing them before they went on holiday in 2008.
The race is wide open eh… what a pity that Labour can’t spend over $800,000 of stolen tax payers money on illegal election advertising then just validate it after they win the election like they did when the race was wide open in 2005. But hey if National do the same as Labour did in 2005 I can hardly wait for the supporters of self serving corruption to defend them and tell us all to move on.
Trotter might even pen a piece telling us how excellent it is that National broke to law to win power in the best interests of the party machine,….
Hey Burt, tell us more about English’s surprise $4.8M for PEDA, an organisation hardly anyone had heard of before.
It was about 10% of the corrupt dealings that went on with the HB-DHB and the special Hausmann/King employ a husband scheme… Is that the starter you were after ?
Get over it, Burt. Isn’t it time you stopped banging on about stuff which is both irrelevent now and, in retrospective, not an issue in the past either. If you have evidence of corruption, call the cops.
If not, just focus on why Farrar et al are shitting themselves this over this poll. The reason is that it indicates the likely outcome at the one poll that counts. Which, as I have said before, is far more likely to be in Autumn than Spring. On these numbers, which presumably match the Nat’s own polling (hence the panic), Key will have to go early if he doesn’t want to go down in history the way most gamblers ultimately do; as a loser.
You are fucking stupid. Repeat Voice of Reason. You are fucking stupid.
[lprent: That is abuse without a point. I’d suggest you curb writing this type of comment in the future. It is stupid to attract my attention when I’m moderating. ]
An Autumn election – you can’t be serious, can you TVoR? That would be a totally Captain Panic Pants kind of move.
Oh I see you got gc on your case, which means maybe you have a point.
Yep, validation via mindless abuse always puts a smile on my dial. The reason I think it’ll be early is that Key’s expertise is in getting out on top. Money traders make their money on timing; predicting when currencies will rise, fall or stabilise.
Key will go when he thinks the Nats have peaked in popularity or at the point at which they are clearly starting to slide. If its the first, then he’ll be looking for a massive win, if it’s the second, then a more modest win, but a win none the less. There is nothing in the economic indicators that suggest that things will be rosy by Spring, so I reckon he’ll find an excuse to go in April/May. Maybe seek a mandate to privatise or if he loses a corrupt minister or two more, or ACT implode, say it’s time to refresh the Government. Whatever excuse he needs to make the decision look reasonable, he’ll go with.
I don’t think the Botany by-election (as mentioned by Lanthanide elsewhere) will worry him in the least. If NZ isn’t bothered by the Blinglish/Wong/Worth rorts, why would wasting a couple hundred grand more make a difference?
Anyhoo, the point I’m making is that we need to start preparing for the election now. If we don’t and he pulls a swifty, we risk being stuck with the insect eyed git for another 3 years. So gird your loins people. Ring or email your preferred party and get yourself on the activist list. There’s pamphlets that need delivering now, fundraising that needs doing yesterday.
Oh, and one more reson I think it won’t be in November. John Key says it will be. That’s good enough evidence for me.
“Oh, and one more reson I think it won’t be in November. John Key says it will be.”
uh huh. the aspirational ass is bluffing.
if he says it will be in nov, folks should be prepared for an earlier election.
Remember the Botany by-election is in March or April, right? If they call the election for soon after that, it opens them up to attack for wasting public money on a by-election that wasn’t necessary.
Yep, if it was going to be called earlier we are looking at the depths of winter, maybe Aug.
Bill and John are desperately hanging on for a cyclical up turn to the economy which they can then take credit for. But sorry lads – times have changed. Peak oil is here and the financial barons are ripping too much capital out of the system for the real economy to recover from.
And if you think the NZ economy is rough now – take into account that we are already surfing on a wave of high commodity export prices. If those falter there will be some real trouble.
Doh
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10698834
“However, the subdued domestic recovery to date is constraining growth, with consumption good imports the laggard relative to other categories”
Long may it remain a laggard I say, that and let’s hope the chinese demand for our produce continues.
Have National paid the GST on their advertising from that election yet, burt?
I don’t think they have, such a pity the self serving Labour govt put a lid on on 14 years of corrupt election spending so that dear leader wouldn’t need to stand in court. The unintended consequences of looking after the red team and allowing them to buy the election gave National a free pass as well.
Shameful episode, we should have declared the 2005 election null and void and held it again – do you agree ?
Such a pity that you can’t seem to learn and keep spouting the same BS no matter how often reality is pointed out to you.
Sorry Draco, I forgot we were told to move on and that corruption is courageous when the red team do it.
Maybe he needs to call the reality hotline for a chance to be put straight Draco? What’s the number again?
The most interesting question which the Horizon poll doesn’t seem to answer (correct me if wrong) is to get some metrics around “Will you vote?” I would guess many undecideds are also in the “cant be bothered voting” camp, and do not do so. Whats our typical national poll turnout – around 70%?
Also, when undecided voters are pressed to give an opinion I would imagine there are two responses, either a) who they last voted for, or b) the party from the most recent headline or news story they saw. If voters are undecided, then they are probably also unengaged in the whole political debate.
To me two things are obvious. This type of poll gives little information but lots of headlines. Whoever governs – most likely National – will need a coalition.
And Winston Peters in cabinet or close to it – for either National or Labour – will cause me to never ever vote for that party again. Most politicians are bad but he is the worst of a bad bunch. Peters as Treasurer (yes under National) was an absolute disgrace that fucked up the countries finances needlessly.
And in terms of extrapolating the Auckland City poll into the national poll I think that is a bit of a leap. Despite typically voting right in recent elections I think what the Auckland city result showed was very rational – a reaction to bad press about the super city and misgivings about the pace of change. Change is happening so at least lets vote in a way which provides maximum counterweight to the perceived risks. We didn’t see a swing – national precincts continued to vote right wing candidates, left precincts voted Len Brown. If Len Brown recognises that he’s been given a mandate to provide efficient council services and no rate increase surprises then I can see him as a long term mayor. But if he gives the right something to mobilise against then each election becomes a real fight.
I agree. Polling undecideds (pressing them for a preference) this far out isn’t useful because undecideds are the most likely to be swayed by campaign advertising which hasn’t started yet.
An acquittance I knew told me how he had just gone out and joined the electoral finance act protest because it “was anti-democratic, taking our rights away”. The next time I saw him was election day 2008, so I asked him who he voted for – no one, because he didn’t see the government as affecting his life and didn’t care.
The horizon poll is producing perverse results for NZ First and the Greens. The idea NZ First can be under 5% on every other poll and somehow be 8.9% on this poll is really pathetic. Also many undecideds actually don’t vote. Turnout is likely to be about the same as 1998 if not slightly lower. Under that scenario Labour and the Greens will be hurt. And NZ First getting 5% is just laughable.
The race for 2011 isn’t wide open. It has never been wide open. Its possible Labour can govern, but its entirely unlikely.
And can someone tell Johansson just shut up already. The guy is a joke.
ah, the famous 1998 election.
If you don’t like the Horizon poll look at the Roy Morgan: Nat + ACT = 50%
All we need is a drop of 2-3% more and NACT can’t govern without the Maori Party, and there’s probalby a Labour-led option to govern too.
If you’re saying that the race is decided already, you’re saying that National’s support is not going to continue to gradually fall as it has for the last year and a half.
the gnats are getting really skanky now.
john key has had his turn and he has really had enough of being the big fish.
he wants to go but the meatheads know they are nothing without him.
great days.
To paraphrase Tony Hayward, former BP CEO who was seen as bungling the handling of the Deepwater Horizon spill in the Gulf of Mexico: Key would like his life back now thank you very much.
Wow, who would have guessed… the editor of the Sunday-Socialist Times likes Phil Goff …
http://www.facebook.com/people/David-Kemeys/1511822401
Who would have guessed that burt doesn’t understand social media?
Should I read all the other comments you have made in this thread like I do this one ? You really need to focus on the message rather than the messenger – hard for somebody who defends corrupt self serving govt but you really should try every now and then to look at what is being said rather than who said it.
You really need to focus on the message rather than the messenger – hard for somebody who defends corrupt self serving govt but you really should try every now and then to look at what is being said rather than who said it.
Good advice Burt which you should also follow.
I’ll give you a clue. He’s editor of a newspaper and generally needs to keep abreast of things. To help him do this he will follow politicians on social media whether he likes them or not.
BTW, I did address your “message” in pointing out that you didn’t have one.
Why would anyone vote for any of them?
It must be the ‘soma’ that most people are ingesting -as per Huxley’s Brave New World- that makes people believe the clowns and saboteurs that constitute all mainstream parties will deliver something other than the continuos falure we have witnessed over the past 30 years.
Delusions are free (for the moment).
Oh look who cares? Either way, this poll is 6-9 months out from the election. You all can play at amateur political sleuths regarding all the permutations and combinations (emphasis on amateur) all you like – but it is just a goddamn poll, not some preordained pronouncement from on high.
So true. If National start turning things around in the next 6 months, then there’s no reason that they can’t have the landslide victory they’re hoping for.
On the other hand, if things continue to go from bad to worse, voters will express their dissatisfaction in the polling booths.
Key will go late, you can bet on that he’s is a gambler after all and has stated he won’t hang around if he loses, an allblack win should do it for him otherwise it’s off to Hawaii .
So New Zealand First is loosing most of its base to the Progressives (who are about to implode) and the Maori Party, not National from whence they were assumed, in the main, to have come.
Showing that there’s a market for a “plague on all their houses” party in the style of the original (pre-Lhaws) NZ First and the Australian Democrats under Don “Keep the bastards honest” Chipp.
As soon as both those parties forgot their roles as watchdogs and cosied up to the elites they set themselves on the path to electoral oblivion.
Yet it’s a market that now remains untapped on both sides of the Tasman. Interesting…. Matt McCarten, are you listening?
I think NZF and the Prog’s both appeal to socially conservative voters, so that convergence doesn’t surprise me, Rex. BTW, bit rough on Jim to say that his lot are imploding. They’ve rather gracefully integrated themselves into Labour and are already proving to be real assets. Despite losing the mayoralty, the left in Chch did a pretty solid job of getting the vote out. The earthquake and the ‘earthquake’ meme gifted it to Parker anyway.
The market you talk of definitely exists and it will propel Peters back into the house, but I don’t know if it will help any other party. Certainly, a left party wouldn’t get much support from there. Given that you know Winston, how well dya reckon he’d get on with Goff? Close enough in outlook to make a good double act?
Any relationship between Winston and Goff will depend (from WP’s perspective) on two things:
1. The degree of deference shown him not just by Goff but by everyone under Goff’s purview. That’ll start with the bestowal of baubles during the coalition process but will continue during the term of government. Provided there’s enough forelock tugging, use of “the Rt Hon”, no contradiction of anything he says – in private, not just in public – they’ll get along just fine since, as you suggest, they’re close enough in outlook (unlike Winston and Clark, Bolger, or Shipley).
2. Who’s advising him at the time. Winston is slow to trust but once he does he is almost blind in his loyalty. He gave me incredible leeway and trust and was a loyal and good friend and political colleague, which is why it still pains me to criticise him. Trouble is, that makes him susceptible to malign (some may say “more malign” 😀 ) influences like Lhaws. And given what I’ve said in point 1, I shoukd mention he’s far more open than that suggests to criticism from those in the “inner circle”… many’s the time I bluntly told him I thought he was wrong on a policy issue, in the way he handled a media question, and similar topics. But again, what is a good quality also makes him manipulable.
Cheers, Rex. It seems to me that they would a quite formidable duo. Goff would supply the gravitas, Peters the oily charm. I’m not sure how comfortable he’d be with the Greens as part of a Government, but he may have got over his previous refusal to work with them, if, as you point out, there’s bawbees to be had. It just looks so cleanly symmetrical and stable to me, even with a thin majority. The MP have shown themselves to be almost as mercenary, so presumably they could be bought off, too.
That leaves the Nats with a serious problem, as I see it. Get Hide up in Epsom or get binned.
Rex – “he gave me incredible leeway and trust and was a loyal an dgood friend and politial colleague, which is why it still pains me to criticise him”
You two faced lier Rex. You destroyed your own career and while this man stood by you as long as he could you carry this vendetta onward.
Get a life Rex and stop trying to destroy a man that in your own words was good to you – boy with friends like you who needs enemies.
That’s odd. No one called Martin worked in the Parliamentary office at the time I was there, or held any significant office in the party. Care to tell us on what you base your supposed superior insight?
It’s true I set off the chain of events that led to Winston and I becoming estranged, by taking it upon myself to go to Hawkes Bay and investigate reports that Michael Laws – whom Winston was insistent had to join NZF – was in serious trouble.
It turned out he was (he was forced to resign from the council and, later, Parliament). My concern was to protect the party, and Winston personally, from the damage that association with Laws would do. History proved me right – Laws’ resignation embarrassed the party (and led, on Winston’s own admission, to his misleading the House by repeating what Laws had told him); and Laws’ hijacking of long-established NZF policies caused it to haemorrhage support from almost 30% to 13% by the 1996 election and 3% by the time it finally got rid of Laws.
If not speaking to me for the six months after I visited Hawkes Bay in an attempt to protect him and the party he’d worked so hard to create, then calling to tell me to “fuck off” equates to “standing by me as long as he could”, you have a weird view of what constitutes loyalty, Martin. One not shared by Parliamentary Services, I might add, who gave me a large suitcase full of the taxpayers’ money to compensate me for the way I was treated over that six months (and to ensure I’m gagged from revealing more telling details).