web analytics

RBNZ lying on manufacturing

Written By: - Date published: 9:10 am, February 15th, 2013 - 23 comments
Categories: Economy, making shit up - Tags:

What’s up with the Treasury and Reserve Bank presenting clearly trumped up, fake numbers to pretend the economy is doing better than it is? Wheeler was caught out claiming the banks weren’t excessively profitable by international standards – they are. Treasury said private electricity suppliers aren’t more expensive – they are – and claimed we’re not unequal by OECD standards – we are. Now, the Reserve Bank is telling blatant lies about the manufacturing sector.

Here’s the lie:

Reserve Bank research on the sector noted that the steep fall in manufacturing output during the recession was in domestic sales, much of which goes to the construction sector, while exports held their ground.

I’m surprised an experienced business journalist like Brian Fallow published such rubbish given that manufacturers are howling that the dollar is costing exports and jobs.

Here’s the fact-check (two minutes on Stats NZ Infoshare):

Manufactured exports Inflation-adjusted
2008 12,582,386,051 13830568212
2009 11,225,937,233 12083904812
2010 11,633,906,994 12241257674
2011 11,991,517,640 12128993399
2012 11,366,072,633 11375803860
change -10% -18%

 

Not only have manufactured exports fallen dramatically, they’re still falling.

Why are government agencies telling such transparent lies about the economy?

23 comments on “RBNZ lying on manufacturing ”

  1. One Tāne Huna 1

    Way to go, RBNZ, now you’re doing the whole country a disservice. Players.

    • RedLogix 1.1

      And maybe now we now why Graham Wheeler was appointed Governor. So far the man has stuck rigorously to the failed economic orthodoxy … and now the political one as well.

      So much for independence.

    • newsense 1.2

      Gee- it sounds like you are saying that the Reserve Bank and Treasury are no longer even attempting to be a-political, but are now part of the National party research and spin machine James?

  2. NoseViper (The Nose knows) 2

    Statistics are still being manufactured, that’s one enterprise still going in NZ thank goodness. Which will be under threat of gradual depletion as the right wing governments don’t want to know those facts – too much information jeeez. This blog gives us good information, perhaps with such we can colour in enough of the numbers so we can get the picture of the whole work of art.

    Another manufacture is the fine art business of presenting negative information, unattractive to the government, so that it actually looks positive. That’s called PR or BS amongst those of us who are just common potty mouths. We demand straight, reliable, factual and unadulterated information from the various bodies like Treasury and Reserve Bank which are paid huge money to ensure that they are independent reporters on our economy.

  3. Richard 3

    It’s almost as if complex multi-variable analysis can yield different results depending on the sophistication of the modelling used.

    It could also quite possibly be that the trained experts know better how to get meaningful data compared to blow-hard keyboard warriors and unqualified politicos;

    But hey, attack the hard working members of New Zealand’s public service by constructing an elaborate conspiracy theory; it’s certainly much easier than actually trying to understand why their detailed reports yield different answers than your back of the envelope calculations.

    • RedLogix 3.1

      Well if the RBNZ says that manufactured exports have “held their ground” while the Stats numbers show a decline in real terms of 18% …. what ‘complex multi-variable’ explanation do you have for this?

    • One Tāne Huna 3.2

      To be fair, The Herald quotes Doug Steel, not the RBNZ directly.

    • Colonial Viper 3.3

      But hey, attack the hard working members of New Zealand’s public service by constructing an elaborate conspiracy theory;

      What’s elaborate and conspiratorial about the RBNZ giving English and Key cover?

      Pretty standard I would’ve thought.

      It almost seems like you don’t want questions to be asked. What’s up with that? Are you part of the “conspiracy”???

  4. NoseViper (The Nose knows) 4

    Richard
    This is a market system we are operating under, not some soft be kind to the workers leftie comfort blanket /sarc.

    You call them hard working members of NZ’s public service – NZs have got a right to query the quality, value and reliability of their product.

  5. muzza 5

    RBNZ – Part of the Global Central Banking Cartel (Foreign controlled)

    RBNZ Govenor – Graham Wheeler – Ex World Banker 2001-2010 – (Foreign controlled)

    2010-present: Non-executive director, Thyssen-Bornemisza Group. Co-founded a European-based company providing advice on Russian privatisation to investors and Russian policy makers.

    2006-2010: Managing director of operations at the World Bank, Washington. Joint oversight of 12,000 staff with administrative budget of US$1.7 billion (NZ$2.1b) and a portfolio of 1600 projects.

    2001-2006: Vice-president and treasurer of the World Bank. Managed asset and liability portfolios totalling US$250b, and an annual borrowing programme of US$10-20 billion.

    1997-2001: Director of the Financial Products and Services Department at the World Bank. Led team to modernise the World Bank’s lending products. 1993-1997: Treasurer at the New Zealand Debt Management Office and deputy secretary to the New Zealand Treasury.

    1990-1993: Director of Macroeconomic Policy at the New Zealand Treasury.

    1984-90: Economic and financial counsellor to the New Zealand delegation to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris.

    1973-1984: Adviser and senior adviser at the New Zealand Treasury.

    Who exactly do people expect Wheeler to represent?

  6. Adrian 6

    James, I don’t doubt your figures, but on the 11.3 billion one it would make the wine industry at 1.1 billion 10% of all exports and I didn’t think that we ( I’m a grower ) were that high a percentage.
    Are they adjusted for some factors, such as the imported costs involved ( in wines case that is only some of the bottles) ? I also thought that dairy was 6 or 7 billion and petroleum 3 to 4 and that’s not counting meat, fish timber and electronics. What does the 11.3 include?
    Good analysis by the way and a good reminder that we need to get our arse into gear.

    • Bunji 6.1

      His figures are for manufactured exports, not all exports. Wine, dairy, natural gas, meat, fish, timber (raw – most of it) don’t count. Electronics (and wood products) will.

  7. Financially literate 7

    As former public servant I detest armchair critics who impugn the integrity of our public service. The public service can make mistakes like any other collection of human beings but to suggest that they are liars requires a burden of proof much higher than an amateur’s analysis of Stats NZ data.

    For those interested in the RBNZ paper :
    http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/research/analytical/AN12_11.pdf

    • Afewknowthetruth 7.1

      The whole point about the public service is that they do NO research and just regurgitate economic garbage year in year out,

      Hence NZ still has no strategies for dealing with peak oil 6 years after it happened and is headed down the gurgler, along with all the other nations that have no strategies.

      And yes, most public servants ARE liars at the local council level, at the regional council level and at the government level. Either that or they are fuckwits.

    • DH 7.2

      “For those interested in the RBNZ paper :
      http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/research/analytical/AN12_11.pdf

      I was interested enough to read it. Relevant statement looks to be this one;

      “Exports of (non-primary) manufactured goods have held up relatively well in the last few years.”

      The paper doesn’t give any actual data on export history so it’s a bit difficult to see what their ‘relatively well’ means subjectively but I’d agree it doesn’t read as ‘held their ground’. Bit of journalistic licence taken there I think

      I do find it a bit ironic that an RBNZ research paper is admitting what the rest of the country has known for years; that the high $NZD is hurting NZ manufacturers.

  8. art product manufacturers

    art products at artistic exhibitions which are of more importance. Even if art products are available at other shows or in local stores, people still buy a lot less in those other places.Art is perhaps one of the most creative ways of self expression.Artists of all hues, whether they are students, amateurs or professionals, need affordable supplies to hone their talent.

    for more info
    visit us:http://www.monalisaarts.com

  9. Afewknowthetruth 9

    Everything in the system is a lie or is based on a lie. -the money system, GDP, unemployment numbers, deficits, the history that is taught in schools, environmental reports and policies………

    And now ALL THE CHICKENS ARE COMING HOME TO ROOST.

  10. Poission 10

    Wheelers bottom line in his recent article( quoting some obscure us sos)

    “Destiny is not a matter of chance; it is a matter of choice”.

    suggests that his logical arguments have little scientific basis (testable) ie the laws of both biology and thermodynamics are based on chance as are the inference of economic cycles (eg Slusky 1927,37)

    It is often the application of policy (such as monetary) such as interest hikes or inertia of macro prudential tools such as Bollard and Wheeler or employment reforms such as NATS that make the economic cycles entrain ( a positive feedback) that cause both contraction and unemployment to both persist and exhbit hysteresis.

    The fundamental problems is that where say some form of structual reform is required in financial regulation (deregulation) is we often have too much consultation from turkeys aka vested interests,who often want to limit the future constraints such as the festive harvest season.

    This additional complexity has made both obfuscation and avoidance in the regulatory framework more feasible ie more complex rules and regulations provide more opportunity for “consultants”.

    Less is more and more is less,Haldane has a very nice paper (the dog and the frisbee) on this subject
    http://www.bis.org/review/r120905a.pdf

    NZ has been often the leader in social experiments it would be an opportunity to again become a leader by the simplification of codes,tax rules and removing foreign trust regimes etc.

  11. Hi,
    i gone through your website about art product manufacturers its wonderful.if you want additional information about art product manufacturers visit http://www.monalisaarts.com

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • New Public Housing Plan announced
    The Government has released its Public Housing Plan 2021-2024 which outlines the intention of where 8,000 additional public and transitional housing places announced in Budget 2020, will go. “The Government is committed to continuing its public house build programme at pace and scale. The extra 8,000 homes – 6000 public ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    22 hours ago
  • Prime Minister congratulates President Joe Biden on his inauguration
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has congratulated President Joe Biden on his inauguration as the 46th President of the United States of America. “I look forward to building a close relationship with President Biden and working with him on issues that matter to both our countries,” Jacinda Ardern said. “New Zealand ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Jobs for Nature funding will create training and employment opportunities
    A major investment to tackle wilding pines in Mt Richmond will create jobs and help protect the area’s unique ecosystems, Biosecurity Minister Damien O’Connor says. The Mt Richmond Forest Park has unique ecosystems developed on mineral-rich geology, including taonga plant species found nowhere else in the country. “These special plant ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Pre-departure testing extended to all passengers to New Zealand
    To further protect New Zealand from COVID-19, the Government is extending pre-departure testing to all passengers to New Zealand except from Australia, Antarctica and most Pacific Islands, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “The change will come into force for all flights arriving in New Zealand after 11:59pm (NZT) on Monday ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Bay Cadets learn skills to protect environment
    Bay Conservation Cadets launched with first intake Supported with $3.5 million grant Part of $1.245b Jobs for Nature programme to accelerate recover from Covid Cadets will learn skills to protect and enhance environment Environment Minister David Parker today welcomed the first intake of cadets at the launch of the Bay ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Cook Islanders to resume travel to New Zealand
    The Prime Minister of New Zealand Jacinda Ardern and the Prime Minister of the Cook Islands Mark Brown have announced passengers from the Cook Islands can resume quarantine-free travel into New Zealand from 21 January, enabling access to essential services such as health. “Following confirmation of the Cook Islands’ COVID ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Supporting communities and landowners to grow employment opportunities
    Jobs for Nature funding is being made available to conservation groups and landowners to employ staff and contractors in a move aimed at boosting local biodiversity-focused projects, Conservation Minister Kiritapu Allan has announced. It is estimated some 400-plus jobs will be created with employment opportunities in ecology, restoration, trapping, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Border exception for some returning international tertiary students
    The Government has approved an exception class for 1000 international tertiary students, degree level and above, who began their study in New Zealand but were caught offshore when border restrictions began. The exception will allow students to return to New Zealand in stages from April 2021. “Our top priority continues ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Tiwai deal gives time for managed transition
    Today’s deal between Meridian and Rio Tinto for the Tiwai smelter to remain open another four years provides time for a managed transition for Southland. “The deal provides welcome certainty to the Southland community by protecting jobs and incomes as the region plans for the future. The Government is committed ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New member for APEC Business Advisory Council
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has appointed Anna Curzon to the APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC). The leader of each APEC economy appoints three private sector representatives to ABAC. ABAC provides advice to leaders annually on business priorities. “ABAC helps ensure that APEC’s work programme is informed by business community perspectives ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Govt’s careful economic management recognised
    The Government’s prudent fiscal management and strong policy programme in the face of the COVID-19 global pandemic have been acknowledged by the credit rating agency Fitch. Fitch has today affirmed New Zealand’s local currency rating at AA+ with a stable outlook and foreign currency rating at AA with a positive ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Additional actions to keep COVID-19 out of NZ
    The Government is putting in place a suite of additional actions to protect New Zealand from COVID-19, including new emerging variants, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “Given the high rates of infection in many countries and evidence of the global spread of more transmissible variants, it’s clear that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • 19 projects will clean up and protect waterways
    $36 million of Government funding alongside councils and others for 19 projects Investment will clean up and protect waterways and create local jobs Boots on the ground expected in Q2 of 2021 Funding part of the Jobs for Nature policy package A package of 19 projects will help clean up ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New Zealand Government acknowledges 175th anniversary of Battle of Ruapekapeka
    The commemoration of the 175th anniversary of the Battle of Ruapekapeka represents an opportunity for all New Zealanders to reflect on the role these conflicts have had in creating our modern nation, says Associate Minister for Arts, Culture and Heritage Kiri Allan. “The Battle at Te Ruapekapeka Pā, which took ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Better care for babies with tongue-tie
    Babies born with tongue-tie will be assessed and treated consistently under new guidelines released by the Ministry of Health, Associate Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall announced today. Around 5% to 10% of babies are born with a tongue-tie, or ankyloglossia, in New Zealand each year. At least half can ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Prisoner disorder event at Waikeria Prison over
    The prisoner disorder event at Waikeria Prison is over, with all remaining prisoners now safely and securely detained, Corrections Minister Kelvin Davis says. The majority of those involved in the event are members of the Mongols and Comancheros. Five of the men are deportees from Australia, with three subject to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Pre-departure COVID-19 test for travellers from the UK and the US from 15 January
    Travellers from the United Kingdom or the United States bound for New Zealand will be required to get a negative test result for COVID-19 before departing, and work is underway to extend the requirement to other long haul flights to New Zealand, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins confirmed today. “The new PCR test requirement, foreshadowed last ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago