Reviewing the weekend polls

Written By: - Date published: 9:30 am, August 18th, 2008 - 35 comments
Categories: election 2008, polls - Tags:

As I said last week, the polls that came out this weekend can not reflect any impact of the secret agenda tapes. The Roy Morgan poll was 50% over before the first tape even came out, and remember it was not until mid-week that the story was really big. Similarly, the Fairfax poll was mostly conducted while the story was still emerging (Colmar Brunton have not provided any period for their poll). On top of that, a wealth of experience and scientific study shows that it takes time for a political event to flow through into poll results. That, of course, did not stop any of the coverage from concluding that the tapes had either had a significant effect or no effect, depending on the contradictory movements of parties in the three polls.

And the polls do contradict each other quite strongly. Take a look at the range of results each party secured in the polls. The range of results is surprisingly high, higher than one would normally expect due to statistical variance; perhaps some one or more of the polls have methodological issues.

Nearly every party were up in one or two polls and down in the remainder. Labour will be heartened to have moved up in 2 of the polls (including an 8% gain in the last two Colmar Brunton polls) and recorded no change in the third. The Greens polled under 5% in two of the three polls, but nobody seriously expects that they won’t win 5% on election day.

Interestingly, the TV3 poll that Duncan Garner mentioned in his blog last week did not materialise on Sunday. Presumably, it was pushed because of the Olympic coverage and will be out tonight. If they, unlike TV1, decided the poll shouldn’t be drowned out by the Olympics that could mean it will make interesting reading. But, of course, it cannot possibly reflect the impact of the secret agenda tapes.

[both major parties’ internal polls show the gap narrowing, about 4-5%, not sure what the period of those polls was.]

[lprent: I could not stand it – fixed a couple of typo’s][You could have got the ‘fo’/’of’ while you were at it. SP]

35 comments on “Reviewing the weekend polls”

  1. higherstandard 1

    Polls are a bore.

    I find myself agreeing with the Prime Minister that they will close up somewhat pre election and the greens will get over the 5% mark.

    What is almost certain is that the Nats will get the highest portion of the vote (near to 50% although I doubt over 50%)

  2. Agreed. I fully expect National to get the most votes, but it’s the most popular party, not necessarily the most popular party, that has the mandate to govern.

  3. lew. did you post a link to a cartoon a while back with Republican elephant and Democratic donkey, with the elephant arguing all kittens should be killed, the donkey against any being killed then the pragmatic centrist coming and saying only half should be killed? still got the link?

  4. Rob 4

    Steve
    Will you still be saying in the next Poll that Secret agenda tapes haven’t kicked in as well!! The Public aren’t worried about it they just see it as Politics only the people on here are focused on it. I believe they did take account of it but also took account of the National policy releases which they saw as pragmatic and the good outweighed the bad.
    The trend is still there for National and they will govern like it or not

    [lprent: Tell me? Do you ever read posts or comments (or can you read?).
    That is exactly what SP said, and what I’ve said on virtually every one of your comments this weekend. ]

  5. Principessa 5

    I won’t quote Josh Lyman just yet, but I do believe it’s all about the big mo…

  6. ak 6

    Good summary Steve. As you note, the range is the salient feature, indicating a nervous volatility accompanying the normal narrowing trend. The range for the minor parties has been so wide this year that their results can almost be ignored: you can bet the farm that the Greens will get there, and I’d put a couple of paddocks on Winnie squeaking back too.

    Brolmar-Cunton is the interesting one: allowing for its endemic pro-tory bias (and noting both Helen’s preferred PM rise and the continuing trend), the real Lab-tory gap could now well be in single figures. And if the polling “refusal rate” is still up at 70% (and it’s still “landlines at evening” only), even that advantage could be illusionary.

    Best news of the week is the fact that the Secret Agenda bender has forced the tories to play the solo-mum-bash card early; the fillip it would definitely have brought will be dissipated by November, and has been overshadowed by the big sport weekend. With the MP cannily snookering the mighty “one law for all” trump by continuing to flash a bit of ankle, substance and experience have won through as the major factors. Advantage Left.

  7. Rob. “Will you still be saying in the next Poll that Secret agenda tapes haven’t kicked in as well!! ”

    We put question marks at the end of questions, not exclamation marks.

    No. I expect there will be movement in the next round of polls and, if not, I conclude there has been no effect.

    Like r0b says, both parties’ internal polls are showing a narrowing of 4-5%

  8. Steve. From the Colmar Brunton website: “Poll Conducted Saturday to Thursday evenings inclusive in week prior to release”

    http://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/index.php?pageLoad=17

  9. Principessa 9

    About 5 years ago I worked as a phone interviewer for Colmar Brunton (Consumerlink). The polling didn’t always run from Saturday to Thursday- it would run until it was done and because it was so popular and everyone wanted to have a say so they could see their results on One News it often ran out Wednesday or even Tuesday night.

  10. sdm 10

    Anyone know what the undecideds were?

  11. Tim Ellis 11

    Okay, SP. I will take the bait. I realise you’ve only said it to promote the idea that there are leaks within high quarters of the National Party, but what sources do you have that National’s internal polling shows that? Or is this another case of several secret sources telling you things that you don’t go back and check, and you expect us to believe, despite your overwhelming Labour Party bias and ability to exaggerate the truth?

  12. Tim. If I went around on the blog telling you the name of every one who spoke to me, then no-one would speak to me. But the stuff article also mentions the parties’ internal polling.

    And Tim, I’m a Green voter, so “overwhelming Leftwing bias”, if you would, please.

    Cheers, jafapete and Principessa

  13. lprent 13

    ak: It was certainly a very quiet weekend. Shows in the numbers. We dropped back to weekend numbers from about three months back.

    Hell – even I had a look at some sport (some of the code was pretty boring), and I don’t usually.

    BTW: my view on sport is that if I’m not doing it (or the family progeny) then I’m not interested. It was pretty exceptional for me to watch, but I saw the shot putter ecstatically running around the track, and that was pretty cool.

  14. burt 14

    Steve P.

    No pie charts this time? It’s a bit hard to visually compare this set of polls with the normal format posted here at the standard.

    captcha: ing climbers – I’ll say!

    [lprent: Yep. That is probably because Steve did a post on the polls. Usually Tane who does them, but it sounds like he has been busy. Different toolkits and approaches to how to present posts. ]

  15. 2_dead_dogs 15

    The tapes began emerging on Saturday the 2nd and Sunday the 3rd. The last statement was made by Lockwood Smith and the dEAD fISH tapes were aired on TV3 on the 5th of August. The Fairfax poll began the very next day and ran for the proceeding 6 days. I would have thought that time period would have the most impact, considering people would have been interrupted from the damaging news bulletins to answer the questions. The story had all but died by the 12th, save a couple of tabloid weekend recaps.

    Interestingly, the Fairfax poll, gave National a higher rating than the Roy Morgan poll which as you say was half over. According to Fairfax, National *gained* 3% over that time.

    All this says to me is that either, none of this is new to us, perhaps National are soaring in the polls *because* of a ‘secret agenda’ rather than in spite of it, or that noone cares.

    As for ‘dead fish gate’ being reflected in the next round of polls, I would say not. It didn’t reflect in either of the two polls we know the dates for (nor the one we don’t) and given that lack of public interest, it wouldn’t be in Labour’s favour to continue the smear for another 3-odd weeks because that is the only way it is going to remain in the public conscience.

  16. Rob 16

    I believe people are dwelling on Helens & Labours achievements before giving their vote to the Pollsters I would like to list a few of them below for you.

    [deleted]

    [lprent: I’ve warned you before to link rather than copy and paste. Took me a minute to find the site you copied that from. This is a site for discussion not for dropping whole posts into the comments section. Learn to link from the FAQ. Learn to discuss by attempting to engage with other commentators. And don’t do the next obvious step of link-whoring without adding your own comments and putting the links you add into context of the threads discussion. ]

  17. Tane 17

    Lynn! typo’s is a typo!

  18. J Mex 18

    Centerbet currently has the odds of Key being Prime Minister at $1.28 and Helen Clark at $3.70 (note: The Key odds have narrowed in the past 2 weeks from $1.30 to $1.28).

    For those full of confidence in another Clark-led govt – Here is a chance to make a pretty packet.

  19. lprent 19

    Hah! Pedantic. I’ve been done over more pedantically everyday by experts. For instance….

    What is really pedantic is this bloody software that insists that it should try to insert O’Connor Street into a MySQL database like:-

    INSERT INTO Table (Street) VALUES (‘O”Connor Street’)

    Idiot program.

  20. dave 20

    [lprent: I could not stand it – fixed a couple of typo’s][You could have got the ‘fo’/’of’ while you were at it. SP]<?

    Not only is “typo’s” a typo, but you could obviously stand this
    “Colmar Brunton have not provided any period for their poll

  21. lprent 21

    Arggh! I’m surrounded by critical [expletives deleted] 🙄

    Either pedantic human punctuation critics or pedantic SQL parsers that don’t like my (almost perfect) code.

    I’m not into grammar or punctuation unless it is able to be described by lex.

  22. Kevyn 22

    Iprent, There is another explanation for the drop in numbers. Nothing to do with TV sports. Simply that most of your visitors/commenters must be from mid Canterbury where it was a beautifuls sunny weekend. After a month of wet weekends of course they’d all be outside instead of sitting in front of a screen nitpicking on your spelling and grammar.

  23. Current polls also don’t show the corrupt taint of Winston Peters. People and parties seen to be aligned to Peters or protecting him from the censure he richly deserves will, I am sure, be negatively affected.

    Peters serves no purpose and has no valid constituency. He makes a mockery of parliamentary democracy. In doing so he sneers at New Zealanders and abuses his position.

    Hopefully the only poll that truly matters will take Peters out. The mood of the market: we want to see Peters’ head on a spike outside the beehive.

  24. Pascal's bookie 24

    “Peters serves no purpose and has no valid constituency.”

    Apart from the people that voted for him you mean?

    The problem with Peters is that while an overwhelming majority of people can’t stand him, he does in fact, have a constituency.

    There is a segment of society that see themselves as put upon by the powers that be, and will support a politician that a)stands up to those ‘elites’, or b)is opposed by them.

    All the sturm and drang is just as likely to be helping him with those folks than not.

    If that’s the case and he sneaks through on 5 percent, then he is legitimate, however much we loathe him.

    It also follows that the large parties then have a duty to their supporters to cut a deal with him if that’s what it takes to form a government.

    Ain’t democracy grand? 😉

  25. burt 25

    Pascal’s bookie

    It also follows that the large parties then have a duty to their supporters to cut a deal with him if that’s what it takes to form a government.

    I don’t agree with that. If I stood as a white supremacist and received just over 5% of the vote would there be a duty for National/Labour to cut a deal with me?

    I think the large parties have a duty to their voters to stand on their principles and refuse to cut a deal with parties that violate said principles. I can see how Labour would have no problem cutting a deal with Peters given the self serving things they have done such as retrospective validation and the EFA.

    Labour campaigned on a new standard of openness and accountability and if you ignore their actions over the last 9 years that campaign position currently makes it impossible for them to cuddle up to Winston. If however we take Labour on their deeds rather than their words then it’s a different story.

  26. burt 26

    Pascal’s bookie

    BTW: A new standard of openness and accountability is not the same as “It was not illegal”. The “it was not illegal” angle is cop out that flies in the face of openness and accountability. Labour supporters should be sending a very strong messager to the party leadership that thisn position is not acceptable. Expect the Labour “power at any price” position to be punished in the polls – the voters ain’t all stupid.

    Ain’t democracy grand?

  27. Pascal's bookie 27

    Well burt, we elect politicians not priests for a reason. It’s a murky business at the best of times, and is an excerise in yucky compromise. The alternatives are worse.

    There is policy, which is what counts, and highfalutin moral absolutes that politicians like to talk about but simply cannot be lived up to. Unless you have some successful counterexamples?

    And no ACT doesn’t count because they are simply leaches on the public purse striking poses that leave them in permanent opposition. Preening sideline antics is all they’ve ever brought to the party so far. But who knows, maybe they’ll change.

    Let’s say your white supremist has ten percent and the other two main parties 45 each. I’d say the most likely outcome would be a grand coalition that may not last long. A truly odious minor party wouldn’t be the only option, see?

    So let’s instead talk about reality, where the small parties are tolerable little weirdo personaility cults like NZF and United, or ideological but mainstream like the Greens and ACT.

    In this case the big parties have a duty to their supporters to cut a deal if that is what it takes to become the government. You seem to want all parties to just get in there and shout about principle and brook no compromise. This ignores the fact that not everyone agrees about matters of principle. A politicians main job is to broker deals so that their policy principles are enacted as much as possible given that fact. That means no one gets exactly what they want unless it is supported by a majority.

    Your view to me seems childish and petulant, but you are of course, welcome to it.

  28. Pascal's bookie 28

    Democracy is grand burt. Murky mucky and grand.

    Your belief that I’m a partsian Labour supporter who approves of or is happy about everything that they do however is just boring.

  29. lprent 29

    Keyvn:

    There is another explanation for the drop in numbers.

    The relative spread of IP’s around the country is pretty ‘even’. I ran a test a while back looking at geographical locations using a site that was pretty effective at localising IP ranges as far as is possible.

    As you’d expect there was a concentration in the cities, but a surprising number were in rural/semi-rural as well. Can’t remember chch being particularly over-represented. Wellington was of course – but not massively. Auckland was relatively under-represented – but that is the nature of the city.

    Bugger all sun in auckland this weekend. Mostly solid cold rain. But I had too much work to do, so let it rain is all I can say.

    We normally get significant drops in traffic over the weekends, typically about half of the average weekday traffic. This one was more than usual on friday night and saturday. Then it went close to normal later on sunday. It was a pity I was otherwise occupied, because I’ve been looking for a low traffic period during the day to put in the upgraded code.

    There have been weekends where the traffic gets higher than weekdays for no apparent reason.

  30. burt 30

    Pascal’s bookie

    Yes childish and petulant. A real adult would just accept that Labour need Winston’s support and therefore have no interest in accountability. A real adult would just shut-up and let the self serving govt get on with destroying the public confidence in parliament because a real adult knows that what the politicians do is so more important that anything they say.

    I’ll grow up and join the adults: I like not knowing how much money has been donated to political parties. The provisions in the EFA allow it to continue so it must be good. I like it when Winston refuses to answer questions because it shows how strong a leader he is and it shows how good Labour are for not expecting him to act according to his parties principles as published on their own web site. Hey ignoring this stuff keeps the coalition together and all adults know that is more important than anything else in politics ever.

  31. r0b 31

    What’s your problem Burt? Peters and his lawyer present an interesting case. I believe it exactly as much as I believe the Nats and their “anonymous” trusts. Do you think the Nats should be investigated and held to the same account as Peters? If not, why not?

  32. burt 32

    rOb

    The Nat’s didn’t file nill returns. Labour did from their property trust so is that telling us that we should be comparing Labour & NZ1 and leaving national out of this debate?

    DPF has an interesting point on this, worth reading.

  33. r0b 33

    The Nat’s didn’t file nill returns.

    No they didn’t, they just used a “separate” organisation (organisations plural actually, the trusts) to do their dirty work, same as Peters is claiming has happened with his lawyer. Peters files a nil return, and the Nats claim that their donations are anonymous when they aren’t (and in doing so they committed a corrupt electoral practice according to Section 214G of the Electoral Act 1993).

    Labour did from their property trust so is that telling us that we should be comparing Labour & NZ1 and leaving national out of this debate?

    I don’t know anything about Labour’s property trust, but I do know that the Labour party accounts are published openly (the only political party to do so), so they can be checked.

    I also know that NZF and the Nats are exactly as trustworthy as each other. In my opinion the only way to stop these tawdry goings on is to ban all private donations completely and have completely open and transparent public funding of our political process.

  34. Tim Ellis 34

    Rob said: “and the Nats claim that their donations are anonymous when they aren’t (and in doing so they committed a corrupt electoral practice according to Section 214G of the Electoral Act 1993).”

    No they didn’t, Rob. The Nats did not claim that their donations were anonymous. They claimed that the donations were made by the trusts, which is correct. Those donations were disclosed on National’s electoral returns. Peters’ never declared the donations, anonymous or from his lawyer, or otherwise.

  35. r0b 35

    No they didn’t, Rob. The Nats did not claim that their donations were anonymous. They claimed that the donations were made by the trusts

    That’s exactly right Tim. They evaded the intent of the law and technically kept the letter. But they knew full well who their big donors were, and the public doesn’t know as it should, so to my mind they have breached the law.

    The Peters case (though I haven’t been following it closely) appears to me to be similar, he appears to have evaded the intent of the law and technically kept the letter.

    I think it sucks in both cases, and as above, I think public funding is the answer.

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    The text below is a Twitter thread by Heather Heying that explains the essence of sexual reproduction and it long evolutionary history. She is an evolutionary biologist and a “professor-in-exile” after she and her husband, Bret Weinstein, stood up to supporters of an enforced “Day of Absence” for white staff and teachers ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    5 days ago
  • Climate Change: Trees, aviation, and offsets
    With crunch time for new Zealand climate policy approaching, most of the New Zealand media have got on board with a global reporting effort to cover the issue. There's one strand of stories today about polling and what it shows about changing public attitudes to the crisis, but the strand ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Pissing-Off The Israelis Is A High-Risk Strategy.
    Dangerous Foes: For those readers of Bowalley Road who feel disposed to dismiss any prospect of an Israeli destabilisation of New Zealand politics, the example of the United Kingdom repays close attention. Ever since the election of Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the British Labour Party, the Israelis have sanctioned, funded and ...
    5 days ago
  • Something to go to in Wellington
    Make It 16, the youth-led campaign to lower New Zealand's voting age, is holding an official campaign launch at Parliament this Friday from 16:30. If you'd like to attend, you can register using EventBrite here. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • A founding member responds to Peace Action Wellington
    by Don Franks It was a lovely sunny Wellington afternoon with blue skies above  the beaches.  In Courtenay Place, political activists packed out a stuffy upstairs room for an important meeting. The assembled pacifists, anarchists, communists and independent young radicals of Peace Action Wellington felt the need for a mission ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    5 days ago
  • “Mistakes and errors”
    Current and former NZDF top brass are being publicly grilled this week by the hit and run inquiry over their public responses to allegations of civilian casualties. Previously, they've claimed there were no casualties, a position which led them to lie to Ministers and to the public. Now, they're saying ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • “Homosexuality is same-sex attraction and relationships, not heterosexuals with delusions of gende...
    by Rafael D. Quiles (gender-critical gay man from Puerto Rico) The writing on the wall is right in people’s faces and people just don’t see it or don’t want to. What could actually possess a heterosexual male to want to feminize himself and claim that he is a lesbian? Because ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    6 days ago
  • Trump: “Where’s my favourite dictator?”
    From the Wall Street Journal:Inside a room of the ornately decorated Hotel du Palais during last month’s Group of Seven summit in Biarritz, France, President Trump awaited a meeting with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi. Mr. Trump looked over a gathering of American and Egyptian officials and called out in ...
    6 days ago
  • Magdalen Burns, 1983-2019, fighter for women’s liberation
    by the Redline blog collective At Redline we are very saddened to hear of the death of Magdalen Burns who passed away on the morning of Friday, September 13 (British time). Magdalen was a great fighter for the rights of women in general and lesbian women in particular, a defender ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 week ago
  • Parliament and the Executive
    The Brexit issue has certainly brought with it a series of apparently difficult constitutional issues, many of them concerning the respective roles of the executive and parliament. Most of them arise because of the unwillingness of MPs, despite their professions to the contrary, to be bound by a constitutional rarity ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    1 week ago
  • The Abigail Article; Martyn Bradbury’s Article, and My Response
    . . This blogpost is different to my usual format of reporting on issues… Since July 1011, I have blogged on a variety of political issues; near always political and/or environmental; mostly highly critical of the previous National Government. Other issues included Israeli occupation of Palestinian lands and repression of ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    1 week ago
  • Police will have to wear silly Buckingham Palace hats from now on, says Police Minister
    Those close to the Police Minister believe the initiative may be the result of Nash “seeing a great deal” on AliExpress. In a move that comes seemingly out of nowhere, Police Minister Stuart Nash announced this afternoon that he expects all frontline staff to don bearskin hats, famously worn by ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • A sensible crackdown
    The government has released its Arms Legislation Bill, containing the second tranche of changes to gun laws following the March 15 massacre. And it all looks quite sensible: a national gun register, higher penalties for illegal possession and dealing, tighter restrictions on arms dealers and shooting clubs, and a shorter ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • California bans private prisons
    Private prisons are a stain on humanity. Prison operators explicitly profit from human misery, then lobby for longer prisons terms so they can keep on profiting. And in the US, prison companies run not only local and state prisons, but also Donald Trump's immigration concentration camps. Faced with this moral ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Why PPPs are a bad idea
    When National was in power, they were very keen on Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) - basicly, using private companies to finance public infrastructure as a way of hiding debt from the public. They were keen on using them for everything - roads, schools, hospitals. But as the UK shows, that "service" ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • A Movement That No Longer Moves.
    Moving And Shaking: There was a time when people spoke matter-of-factly about the “labour movement” – a political phenomenon understood to embrace much more than the Labour Party. Included within the term’s definition was the whole trade union movement – many of whose members looked upon the Labour Party as ...
    1 week ago
  • NZ ‘left’ politically embracing extreme postmodernism
    by Philip Ferguson Much of the left, even people who formally identify as marxists, have collapsed politically in the face of postmodern gender theory of the sort pioneered by American philosopher Judith Butler. For Butler even biological sex is socially constructed. “If the immutable character of sex is contested, perhaps ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • The obvious question
    The media is reporting that the (alleged) Labour party sexual assaulter has resigned from their job at Parliament, which means hopefully he won't be turning up there making people feel unsafe in future. Good. But as with everything about this scandal, it just raises other questions. Most significantly: why the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • The moment I found out that you found out, I acted swiftly
    By Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern I am every bit as angry as you are. I am every bit as disappointed as you must be. The people with power, oversight and the ability to do something about these processes within the Labour Party should be ashamed. Whoever those people are, I ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • This is why people hate property developers
    Property developers think there is an "oversupply" of houses in Auckland:High turnover rates and falling prices may be a sign that there are too many new houses going in to some parts of Auckland, commentators say. [...] Property developer David Whitburn said there was a "bit of an oversupply" in ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Australia to Pacific: “Fuck you, you can all drown”
    World leaders are meeting in New York in two weeks for the 2019 Climate Action Summit, where they are expected to announce new and more ambitious targets to stop the world from burning. But the Australian Prime Minister won't be there, despite being in the USA at the time:Scott Morrison ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Implausible ignorance
    Labour Party president Nigel Haworth resigned yesterday over the party's sexual assault scandal. But while that's good news, its unlikely to take away the stench of a coverup. Because according to Paula Bennett in Parliament yesterday, pretty much everyone in the Prime Minister's office was involved as well:I have been ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Labour’s Fatal Flaw.
     Two-Faced? Labour insiders' commitment to the neoliberal status quo puts them at odds with their party’s membership; its trade union affiliates; and a majority of Labour voters, but this only serves to strengthen the perception they have of themselves as a special elite. Among the lesser breeds, they’ll talk up a ...
    1 week ago
  • Ten reasons the Tories do NOT want an election
    There has been a lot of talk about Boris Johnson wanting an election, and he has blustered with great gusto about 'chicken' Jeremy Corbyn refusing one, but I think there are many reasons why he is secretly glad he has been refused the opportunity:The Tories are an utter rabble,tearing themselves ...
    1 week ago
  • Prorogation Illegal, rule Scottish judges
    Scottish appeal court judges have declared that Boris Johnson’s decision to suspend parliament in the run-up to the October Brexit deadline is unlawful. The three judges, chaired by Lord Carloway, Scotland’s most senior judge, overturned an earlier ruling that the courts did not have the powers to interfere in the prime ...
    1 week ago
  • Let me explain what I meant by Everyday New Zealanders
    By Simon Bridges. The following is a press release from the office of Simon Bridges, leader of The National Party. Key ora, New Zealand. Happy Maori Language Week. Look, I’m writing to you today because I want to clear something up. There’s been a lot of kerfuffle around some things ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • Yes, the SIS is subject to the Public Records Act
    I understand there's some stuff going round about how the SIS "was removed from the list of public offices covered by the Public Records Act in 2017". The context of course being their records derived from US torture, which will be disposed of or sealed. The good news is that ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • An evidence-based discussion of the Canadian fluoride/IQ study
    Dr. Christopher Labos and Jonathan Jarry discuss the recent Canadian fluoride/IQ research. They provide an expert analysis of the paper and its problems. Click on image to go to podcast. The critical debate about the recent ...
    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: Australia in denial
    Australia is burning down again, and meanwhile its natural disaster minister is denying climate change:Australia’s minister responsible for drought and natural disasters, David Littleproud, has said that he doesn’t “know if climate change is manmade”. Clarifying earlier comments that the question is “irrelevant” when considering the Coalition government’s response to ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Philippines activist speaking on the Duterte tyranny
    Auckland Philippines Solidarity is excited to host Professor Judy Taguiwalo for a speaking tour of NZ in September. She is a well-known activist in the Philippines and was a political prisoner under the Marcos dictatorship. Professor Taguiwalo briefly served as a Cabinet member under President Duterte but was forced from ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • Disgust
    I have no special insights to offer on the Labour sexual assault coverup. All I have is disgust. Disgust that an organisation could fail its people so badly. Disgust that they punished the victims rather than the perpetrator. Disgust that its party hacks are apparently blaming the victims for demanding ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Speak Up for Women calls out Greens’ censorship
    This open letter to the Green Party was penned after an opinion piece by Jill Abigail, a feminist and founding member of the party, was censored by the Greens’ leadership. (Redline has reprinted her article here).The intolerance of the Green Party leaders and their acceptance of the misogyny of gender ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • Member’s Day: End of Life Choice, part 3
    Today is a Member's day, and David Seymour's End of Life Choice Bill continues its slow crawl through its committee stage. They're spending the whole day on it today, though the first hour is likely to be spent on voting left over from last time. After that they'll move on ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Flight to Los Angeles turned back after passengers decide they don’t want to go anymore
    An ambitious plan to fly to Los Angeles petered out into a brief sight-seeing trip and a desire to return home and get some sleep before work tomorrow. Air New Zealand has confirmed a flight to Los Angeles last night was turned back about a quarter of the way into ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Indigenous Futures: defuturing and futuring – an analytical framework for policy development?
    There appears to be consensus – by omission – that the concept of indigenous futures should be accepted at face value. So I scavenged the internet to see if I could locate an academic descriptor or a framework around how we think about it as a concept, and whether it ...
    EllipsisterBy Ellipsister
    2 weeks ago
  • Cadbury rumoured to be releasing the Pineapple Trump
    Here’s another novelty chocolate to shove in your gob, New Zealand Cadbury could be seeking to make itself great again with a rumoured new release: Pineapple Trumps, a spin on its classic chocolate-encased pineapple treat and do-it-yourself tooth remover. The global confectionery manufacturer and bumbling “before” character in an infomercial, ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • The coming resource war.
    During my time in the Pentagon I had the privilege of sitting down with military leaders and defence and security officials from a variety of Latin American nations. Sometimes I was present as a subordinate assistant to a senior US defence department official, sometimes as part of a delegation that ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    2 weeks ago
  • Māori Language Week with The Civilian
    Kia ora, Aotearoa. It’s that magical time of year. Te Wiki o te Reo Māori. In English, the week that frightens talk radio. As you probably know by now, all your favourite media outlets are participating, some more successfully than others. Stuff has changed its name to Puna for the ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Will Horizons act on climate change?
    Local body elections are coming up next month. And it looks like all Palmerston North candidates for Horizons (the Manawatu-Whanganui Regional Council) want to take action on climate change:Climate change is set to be a key issue in Palmerston North for the next three years if those wanting to get ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • BORA reform is stalled
    Eighteen months ago, the government promised to strengthen the Bill of Rights Act, by explicitly affirming the power of the courts to issue declarations of inconsistency and requiring Parliament to formally respond to them. So how's that going? I was curious, so I asked for all advice about the proposal. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Corbyn and Brexit
    As the Brexit saga staggers on, the focus is naturally enough on the Prime Minister and his attempts to achieve Brexit “do or die”. But the role played by the Leader of the Opposition is of almost equal interest and complexity. The first problem for Jeremy Corbyn is that he ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    2 weeks ago
  • A ditch for him to die in
    Last week, English Prime Minister Boris Johnson boldly declared that he would rather die be dead in a ditch than delay Brexit. Unfortunately for him, the UK parliament accepted the challenge, and promptly dug one for him. The "rebellion bill" requires him to ask for and secure yet another temporary ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Warning! Warning! Danger Jacinda Ardern! Danger Marama Davidson! Warning!
    Lost In Political Space: The most important takeaway from this latest Labour sexual assault scandal, which (if I may paraphrase Nixon’s White House counsel’s, John Dean’s, infamous description of Watergate) is “growing like a cancer” on the premiership, is the Labour Party organisation’s extraordinary professional paralysis in the face of ...
    2 weeks ago

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