Reviewing the weekend polls

Written By: - Date published: 9:30 am, August 18th, 2008 - 37 comments
Categories: election 2008, polls - Tags:

As I said last week, the polls that came out this weekend can not reflect any impact of the secret agenda tapes. The Roy Morgan poll was 50% over before the first tape even came out, and remember it was not until mid-week that the story was really big. Similarly, the Fairfax poll was mostly conducted while the story was still emerging (Colmar Brunton have not provided any period for their poll). On top of that, a wealth of experience and scientific study shows that it takes time for a political event to flow through into poll results. That, of course, did not stop any of the coverage from concluding that the tapes had either had a significant effect or no effect, depending on the contradictory movements of parties in the three polls.

And the polls do contradict each other quite strongly. Take a look at the range of results each party secured in the polls. The range of results is surprisingly high, higher than one would normally expect due to statistical variance; perhaps some one or more of the polls have methodological issues.

Nearly every party were up in one or two polls and down in the remainder. Labour will be heartened to have moved up in 2 of the polls (including an 8% gain in the last two Colmar Brunton polls) and recorded no change in the third. The Greens polled under 5% in two of the three polls, but nobody seriously expects that they won’t win 5% on election day.

Interestingly, the TV3 poll that Duncan Garner mentioned in his blog last week did not materialise on Sunday. Presumably, it was pushed because of the Olympic coverage and will be out tonight. If they, unlike TV1, decided the poll shouldn’t be drowned out by the Olympics that could mean it will make interesting reading. But, of course, it cannot possibly reflect the impact of the secret agenda tapes.

[both major parties’ internal polls show the gap narrowing, about 4-5%, not sure what the period of those polls was.]

[lprent: I could not stand it – fixed a couple of typo’s][You could have got the ‘fo’/’of’ while you were at it. SP]

37 comments on “Reviewing the weekend polls ”

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  1. higherstandard 1
    18 August 2008 at 9:58 am

    Polls are a bore.

    I find myself agreeing with the Prime Minister that they will close up somewhat pre election and the greens will get over the 5% mark.

    What is almost certain is that the Nats will get the highest portion of the vote (near to 50% although I doubt over 50%)

  2. Steve Pierson 2
    18 August 2008 at 10:01 am

    Agreed. I fully expect National to get the most votes, but it’s the most popular party, not necessarily the most popular party, that has the mandate to govern.

  3. Steve Pierson 3
    18 August 2008 at 10:06 am

    lew. did you post a link to a cartoon a while back with Republican elephant and Democratic donkey, with the elephant arguing all kittens should be killed, the donkey against any being killed then the pragmatic centrist coming and saying only half should be killed? still got the link?

  4. Rob 4
    18 August 2008 at 10:24 am

    Steve
    Will you still be saying in the next Poll that Secret agenda tapes haven’t kicked in as well!! The Public aren’t worried about it they just see it as Politics only the people on here are focused on it. I believe they did take account of it but also took account of the National policy releases which they saw as pragmatic and the good outweighed the bad.
    The trend is still there for National and they will govern like it or not

    [lprent: Tell me? Do you ever read posts or comments (or can you read?).
    That is exactly what SP said, and what I’ve said on virtually every one of your comments this weekend. ]

  5. Principessa 5
    18 August 2008 at 10:26 am

    I won’t quote Josh Lyman just yet, but I do believe it’s all about the big mo…

  6. ak 6
    18 August 2008 at 10:27 am

    Good summary Steve. As you note, the range is the salient feature, indicating a nervous volatility accompanying the normal narrowing trend. The range for the minor parties has been so wide this year that their results can almost be ignored: you can bet the farm that the Greens will get there, and I’d put a couple of paddocks on Winnie squeaking back too.

    Brolmar-Cunton is the interesting one: allowing for its endemic pro-tory bias (and noting both Helen’s preferred PM rise and the continuing trend), the real Lab-tory gap could now well be in single figures. And if the polling “refusal rate” is still up at 70% (and it’s still “landlines at evening” only), even that advantage could be illusionary.

    Best news of the week is the fact that the Secret Agenda bender has forced the tories to play the solo-mum-bash card early; the fillip it would definitely have brought will be dissipated by November, and has been overshadowed by the big sport weekend. With the MP cannily snookering the mighty “one law for all” trump by continuing to flash a bit of ankle, substance and experience have won through as the major factors. Advantage Left.

  7. Steve Pierson 7
    18 August 2008 at 10:38 am

    Rob. “Will you still be saying in the next Poll that Secret agenda tapes haven’t kicked in as well!! ”

    We put question marks at the end of questions, not exclamation marks.

    No. I expect there will be movement in the next round of polls and, if not, I conclude there has been no effect.

    Like r0b says, both parties’ internal polls are showing a narrowing of 4-5%

  8. jafapete 8
    18 August 2008 at 10:46 am

    Steve. From the Colmar Brunton website: “Poll Conducted Saturday to Thursday evenings inclusive in week prior to release”

    http://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/index.php?pageLoad=17

  9. Principessa 9
    18 August 2008 at 10:56 am

    About 5 years ago I worked as a phone interviewer for Colmar Brunton (Consumerlink). The polling didn’t always run from Saturday to Thursday- it would run until it was done and because it was so popular and everyone wanted to have a say so they could see their results on One News it often ran out Wednesday or even Tuesday night.

  10. sdm 10
    18 August 2008 at 11:10 am

    Anyone know what the undecideds were?

  11. Tim Ellis 11
    18 August 2008 at 11:20 am

    Okay, SP. I will take the bait. I realise you’ve only said it to promote the idea that there are leaks within high quarters of the National Party, but what sources do you have that National’s internal polling shows that? Or is this another case of several secret sources telling you things that you don’t go back and check, and you expect us to believe, despite your overwhelming Labour Party bias and ability to exaggerate the truth?

  12. Steve Pierson 12
    18 August 2008 at 11:57 am

    Tim. If I went around on the blog telling you the name of every one who spoke to me, then no-one would speak to me. But the stuff article also mentions the parties’ internal polling.

    And Tim, I’m a Green voter, so “overwhelming Leftwing bias”, if you would, please.

    Cheers, jafapete and Principessa

  13. lprent 13
    18 August 2008 at 12:28 pm

    ak: It was certainly a very quiet weekend. Shows in the numbers. We dropped back to weekend numbers from about three months back.

    Hell – even I had a look at some sport (some of the code was pretty boring), and I don’t usually.

    BTW: my view on sport is that if I’m not doing it (or the family progeny) then I’m not interested. It was pretty exceptional for me to watch, but I saw the shot putter ecstatically running around the track, and that was pretty cool.

  14. burt 14
    18 August 2008 at 3:41 pm

    Steve P.

    No pie charts this time? It’s a bit hard to visually compare this set of polls with the normal format posted here at the standard.

    captcha: ing climbers – I’ll say!

    [lprent: Yep. That is probably because Steve did a post on the polls. Usually Tane who does them, but it sounds like he has been busy. Different toolkits and approaches to how to present posts. ]

  15. 2_dead_dogs 15
    18 August 2008 at 6:19 pm

    The tapes began emerging on Saturday the 2nd and Sunday the 3rd. The last statement was made by Lockwood Smith and the dEAD fISH tapes were aired on TV3 on the 5th of August. The Fairfax poll began the very next day and ran for the proceeding 6 days. I would have thought that time period would have the most impact, considering people would have been interrupted from the damaging news bulletins to answer the questions. The story had all but died by the 12th, save a couple of tabloid weekend recaps.

    Interestingly, the Fairfax poll, gave National a higher rating than the Roy Morgan poll which as you say was half over. According to Fairfax, National *gained* 3% over that time.

    All this says to me is that either, none of this is new to us, perhaps National are soaring in the polls *because* of a ‘secret agenda’ rather than in spite of it, or that noone cares.

    As for ‘dead fish gate’ being reflected in the next round of polls, I would say not. It didn’t reflect in either of the two polls we know the dates for (nor the one we don’t) and given that lack of public interest, it wouldn’t be in Labour’s favour to continue the smear for another 3-odd weeks because that is the only way it is going to remain in the public conscience.

  16. Rob 16
    18 August 2008 at 7:12 pm

    I believe people are dwelling on Helens & Labours achievements before giving their vote to the Pollsters I would like to list a few of them below for you.

    [deleted]

    [lprent: I’ve warned you before to link rather than copy and paste. Took me a minute to find the site you copied that from. This is a site for discussion not for dropping whole posts into the comments section. Learn to link from the FAQ. Learn to discuss by attempting to engage with other commentators. And don’t do the next obvious step of link-whoring without adding your own comments and putting the links you add into context of the threads discussion. ]

  17. Tane 17
    18 August 2008 at 8:01 pm

    Lynn! typo’s is a typo!

  18. J Mex 18
    18 August 2008 at 9:16 pm

    Centerbet currently has the odds of Key being Prime Minister at $1.28 and Helen Clark at $3.70 (note: The Key odds have narrowed in the past 2 weeks from $1.30 to $1.28).

    For those full of confidence in another Clark-led govt – Here is a chance to make a pretty packet.

  19. lprent 19
    18 August 2008 at 11:22 pm

    Hah! Pedantic. I’ve been done over more pedantically everyday by experts. For instance….

    What is really pedantic is this bloody software that insists that it should try to insert O’Connor Street into a MySQL database like:-

    INSERT INTO Table (Street) VALUES (‘O”Connor Street’)

    Idiot program.

  20. dave 20
    19 August 2008 at 12:22 am

    [lprent: I could not stand it – fixed a couple of typo’s][You could have got the ‘fo’/’of’ while you were at it. SP]<?

    Not only is “typo’s” a typo, but you could obviously stand this
    “Colmar Brunton have not provided any period for their poll

  21. lprent 21
    19 August 2008 at 12:52 am

    Arggh! I’m surrounded by critical [expletives deleted] 🙄

    Either pedantic human punctuation critics or pedantic SQL parsers that don’t like my (almost perfect) code.

    I’m not into grammar or punctuation unless it is able to be described by lex.

  22. Kevyn 22
    19 August 2008 at 3:44 am

    Iprent, There is another explanation for the drop in numbers. Nothing to do with TV sports. Simply that most of your visitors/commenters must be from mid Canterbury where it was a beautifuls sunny weekend. After a month of wet weekends of course they’d all be outside instead of sitting in front of a screen nitpicking on your spelling and grammar.

  23. David MacGregor 23
    19 August 2008 at 7:40 am

    Current polls also don’t show the corrupt taint of Winston Peters. People and parties seen to be aligned to Peters or protecting him from the censure he richly deserves will, I am sure, be negatively affected.

    Peters serves no purpose and has no valid constituency. He makes a mockery of parliamentary democracy. In doing so he sneers at New Zealanders and abuses his position.

    Hopefully the only poll that truly matters will take Peters out. The mood of the market: we want to see Peters’ head on a spike outside the beehive.

  24. Pascal's bookie 24
    19 August 2008 at 7:58 am

    “Peters serves no purpose and has no valid constituency.”

    Apart from the people that voted for him you mean?

    The problem with Peters is that while an overwhelming majority of people can’t stand him, he does in fact, have a constituency.

    There is a segment of society that see themselves as put upon by the powers that be, and will support a politician that a)stands up to those ‘elites’, or b)is opposed by them.

    All the sturm and drang is just as likely to be helping him with those folks than not.

    If that’s the case and he sneaks through on 5 percent, then he is legitimate, however much we loathe him.

    It also follows that the large parties then have a duty to their supporters to cut a deal with him if that’s what it takes to form a government.

    Ain’t democracy grand? 😉

  25. burt 25
    19 August 2008 at 9:01 am

    Pascal’s bookie

    It also follows that the large parties then have a duty to their supporters to cut a deal with him if that’s what it takes to form a government.

    I don’t agree with that. If I stood as a white supremacist and received just over 5% of the vote would there be a duty for National/Labour to cut a deal with me?

    I think the large parties have a duty to their voters to stand on their principles and refuse to cut a deal with parties that violate said principles. I can see how Labour would have no problem cutting a deal with Peters given the self serving things they have done such as retrospective validation and the EFA.

    Labour campaigned on a new standard of openness and accountability and if you ignore their actions over the last 9 years that campaign position currently makes it impossible for them to cuddle up to Winston. If however we take Labour on their deeds rather than their words then it’s a different story.

  26. burt 26
    19 August 2008 at 9:25 am

    Pascal’s bookie

    BTW: A new standard of openness and accountability is not the same as “It was not illegal”. The “it was not illegal” angle is cop out that flies in the face of openness and accountability. Labour supporters should be sending a very strong messager to the party leadership that thisn position is not acceptable. Expect the Labour “power at any price” position to be punished in the polls – the voters ain’t all stupid.

    Ain’t democracy grand?

  27. Pascal's bookie 27
    19 August 2008 at 9:43 am

    Well burt, we elect politicians not priests for a reason. It’s a murky business at the best of times, and is an excerise in yucky compromise. The alternatives are worse.

    There is policy, which is what counts, and highfalutin moral absolutes that politicians like to talk about but simply cannot be lived up to. Unless you have some successful counterexamples?

    And no ACT doesn’t count because they are simply leaches on the public purse striking poses that leave them in permanent opposition. Preening sideline antics is all they’ve ever brought to the party so far. But who knows, maybe they’ll change.

    Let’s say your white supremist has ten percent and the other two main parties 45 each. I’d say the most likely outcome would be a grand coalition that may not last long. A truly odious minor party wouldn’t be the only option, see?

    So let’s instead talk about reality, where the small parties are tolerable little weirdo personaility cults like NZF and United, or ideological but mainstream like the Greens and ACT.

    In this case the big parties have a duty to their supporters to cut a deal if that is what it takes to become the government. You seem to want all parties to just get in there and shout about principle and brook no compromise. This ignores the fact that not everyone agrees about matters of principle. A politicians main job is to broker deals so that their policy principles are enacted as much as possible given that fact. That means no one gets exactly what they want unless it is supported by a majority.

    Your view to me seems childish and petulant, but you are of course, welcome to it.

  28. Pascal's bookie 28
    19 August 2008 at 9:46 am

    Democracy is grand burt. Murky mucky and grand.

    Your belief that I’m a partsian Labour supporter who approves of or is happy about everything that they do however is just boring.

  29. lprent 29
    19 August 2008 at 9:46 am

    Keyvn:

    There is another explanation for the drop in numbers.

    The relative spread of IP’s around the country is pretty ‘even’. I ran a test a while back looking at geographical locations using a site that was pretty effective at localising IP ranges as far as is possible.

    As you’d expect there was a concentration in the cities, but a surprising number were in rural/semi-rural as well. Can’t remember chch being particularly over-represented. Wellington was of course – but not massively. Auckland was relatively under-represented – but that is the nature of the city.

    Bugger all sun in auckland this weekend. Mostly solid cold rain. But I had too much work to do, so let it rain is all I can say.

    We normally get significant drops in traffic over the weekends, typically about half of the average weekday traffic. This one was more than usual on friday night and saturday. Then it went close to normal later on sunday. It was a pity I was otherwise occupied, because I’ve been looking for a low traffic period during the day to put in the upgraded code.

    There have been weekends where the traffic gets higher than weekdays for no apparent reason.

  30. burt 30
    19 August 2008 at 10:25 am

    Pascal’s bookie

    Yes childish and petulant. A real adult would just accept that Labour need Winston’s support and therefore have no interest in accountability. A real adult would just shut-up and let the self serving govt get on with destroying the public confidence in parliament because a real adult knows that what the politicians do is so more important that anything they say.

    I’ll grow up and join the adults: I like not knowing how much money has been donated to political parties. The provisions in the EFA allow it to continue so it must be good. I like it when Winston refuses to answer questions because it shows how strong a leader he is and it shows how good Labour are for not expecting him to act according to his parties principles as published on their own web site. Hey ignoring this stuff keeps the coalition together and all adults know that is more important than anything else in politics ever.

  31. r0b 31
    19 August 2008 at 11:01 am

    What’s your problem Burt? Peters and his lawyer present an interesting case. I believe it exactly as much as I believe the Nats and their “anonymous” trusts. Do you think the Nats should be investigated and held to the same account as Peters? If not, why not?

  32. burt 32
    19 August 2008 at 11:16 am

    rOb

    The Nat’s didn’t file nill returns. Labour did from their property trust so is that telling us that we should be comparing Labour & NZ1 and leaving national out of this debate?

    DPF has an interesting point on this, worth reading.

  33. r0b 33
    19 August 2008 at 11:59 am

    The Nat’s didn’t file nill returns.

    No they didn’t, they just used a “separate” organisation (organisations plural actually, the trusts) to do their dirty work, same as Peters is claiming has happened with his lawyer. Peters files a nil return, and the Nats claim that their donations are anonymous when they aren’t (and in doing so they committed a corrupt electoral practice according to Section 214G of the Electoral Act 1993).

    Labour did from their property trust so is that telling us that we should be comparing Labour & NZ1 and leaving national out of this debate?

    I don’t know anything about Labour’s property trust, but I do know that the Labour party accounts are published openly (the only political party to do so), so they can be checked.

    I also know that NZF and the Nats are exactly as trustworthy as each other. In my opinion the only way to stop these tawdry goings on is to ban all private donations completely and have completely open and transparent public funding of our political process.

  34. Tim Ellis 34
    19 August 2008 at 12:07 pm

    Rob said: “and the Nats claim that their donations are anonymous when they aren’t (and in doing so they committed a corrupt electoral practice according to Section 214G of the Electoral Act 1993).”

    No they didn’t, Rob. The Nats did not claim that their donations were anonymous. They claimed that the donations were made by the trusts, which is correct. Those donations were disclosed on National’s electoral returns. Peters’ never declared the donations, anonymous or from his lawyer, or otherwise.

  35. r0b 35
    19 August 2008 at 12:13 pm

    No they didn’t, Rob. The Nats did not claim that their donations were anonymous. They claimed that the donations were made by the trusts

    That’s exactly right Tim. They evaded the intent of the law and technically kept the letter. But they knew full well who their big donors were, and the public doesn’t know as it should, so to my mind they have breached the law.

    The Peters case (though I haven’t been following it closely) appears to me to be similar, he appears to have evaded the intent of the law and technically kept the letter.

    I think it sucks in both cases, and as above, I think public funding is the answer.

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  • Where on a Computer is the Operating System Generally Stored? Delving into the Digital Home of your ...
    The operating system (OS) is the heart and soul of a computer, orchestrating every action and interaction between hardware and software. But have you ever wondered where on a computer is the operating system generally stored? The answer lies in the intricate dance between hardware and software components, particularly within ...
    Gareth’s WorldBy admin
    1 day ago

  • How Many Watts Does a Laptop Use? Understanding Power Consumption and Efficiency
    Laptops have become essential tools for work, entertainment, and communication, offering portability and functionality. However, with rising energy costs and growing environmental concerns, understanding a laptop’s power consumption is more important than ever. So, how many watts does a laptop use? The answer, unfortunately, isn’t straightforward. It depends on several ...
    Gareth’s WorldBy admin
    1 day ago

  • How to Screen Record on a Dell Laptop A Guide to Capturing Your Screen with Ease
    Screen recording has become an essential tool for various purposes, such as creating tutorials, capturing gameplay footage, recording online meetings, or sharing information with others. Fortunately, Dell laptops offer several built-in and external options for screen recording, catering to different needs and preferences. This guide will explore various methods on ...
    Gareth’s WorldBy admin
    1 day ago

  • How Much Does it Cost to Fix a Laptop Screen? Navigating Repair Options and Costs
    A cracked or damaged laptop screen can be a frustrating experience, impacting productivity and enjoyment. Fortunately, laptop screen repair is a common service offered by various repair shops and technicians. However, the cost of fixing a laptop screen can vary significantly depending on several factors. This article delves into the ...
    Gareth’s WorldBy admin
    1 day ago

  • How Long Do Gaming Laptops Last? Demystifying Lifespan and Maximizing Longevity
    Gaming laptops represent a significant investment for passionate gamers, offering portability and powerful performance for immersive gaming experiences. However, a common concern among potential buyers is their lifespan. Unlike desktop PCs, which allow for easier component upgrades, gaming laptops have inherent limitations due to their compact and integrated design. This ...
    Gareth’s WorldBy admin
    1 day ago

  • Climate Change: Turning the tide
    The annual inventory report of New Zealand's greenhouse gas emissions has been released, showing that gross emissions have dropped for the third year in a row, to 78.4 million tons: All-told gross emissions have decreased by over 6 million tons since the Zero Carbon Act was passed in 2019. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 day ago

  • How to Unlock Your Computer A Comprehensive Guide to Regaining Access
    Experiencing a locked computer can be frustrating, especially when you need access to your files and applications urgently. The methods to unlock your computer will vary depending on the specific situation and the type of lock you encounter. This guide will explore various scenarios and provide step-by-step instructions on how ...
    Gareth’s WorldBy admin
    1 day ago

  • Faxing from Your Computer A Modern Guide to Sending Documents Digitally
    While the world has largely transitioned to digital communication, faxing still holds relevance in certain industries and situations. Fortunately, gone are the days of bulky fax machines and dedicated phone lines. Today, you can easily send and receive faxes directly from your computer, offering a convenient and efficient way to ...
    Gareth’s WorldBy admin
    1 day ago

  • Protecting Your Home Computer A Guide to Cyber Awareness
    In our increasingly digital world, home computers have become essential tools for work, communication, entertainment, and more. However, this increased reliance on technology also exposes us to various cyber threats. Understanding these threats and taking proactive steps to protect your home computer is crucial for safeguarding your personal information, finances, ...
    Gareth’s WorldBy admin
    1 day ago

  • Server-Based Computing Powering the Modern Digital Landscape
    In the ever-evolving world of technology, server-based computing has emerged as a cornerstone of modern digital infrastructure. This article delves into the concept of server-based computing, exploring its various forms, benefits, challenges, and its impact on the way we work and interact with technology. Understanding Server-Based Computing: At its core, ...
    Gareth’s WorldBy admin
    1 day ago

  • Vroom vroom go the big red trucks
    The absolute brass neck of this guy.We want more medical doctors, not more spin doctors, Luxon was saying a couple of weeks ago, and now we’re told the guy has seven salaried adults on TikTok duty. Sorry, doing social media. The absolute brass neck of it. The irony that the ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 day ago

  • Jones finds $410,000 to help the government muscle in on a spat project
    Buzz from the Beehive Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones relishes spatting and eagerly takes issue with environmentalists who criticise his enthusiasm for resource development. He relishes helping the fishing industry too. And so today, while the media are making much of the latest culling in the public service to ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    1 day ago

  • Again, hate crimes are not necessarily terrorism.
    Having written, taught and worked for the US government on issues involving unconventional warfare and terrorism for 30-odd years, two things irritate me the most when the subject is discussed in public. The first is the Johnny-come-lately academics-turned-media commentators who … Continue reading → ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    1 day ago

  • Despair – construction consenting edition
    Eric Crampton writes – Kainga Ora is the government’s house building agency. It’s been building a lot of social housing. Kainga Ora has its own (but independent) consenting authority, Consentium. It’s a neat idea. Rather than have to deal with building consents across each different territorial authority, Kainga Ora ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    1 day ago

  • Coalition promises – will the Govt keep the commitment to keep Kiwis equal before the law?
    Muriel Newman writes – The Coalition Government says it is moving with speed to deliver campaign promises and reverse the damage done by Labour. One of their key commitments is to “defend the principle that New Zealanders are equal before the law.” To achieve this, they have pledged they “will not advance ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    1 day ago

  • An impermanent public service is a guarantee of very little else but failure
    Chris Trotter writes –  The absence of anything resembling a fightback from the public servants currently losing their jobs is interesting. State-sector workers’ collective fatalism in the face of Coalition cutbacks indicates a surprisingly broad acceptance of impermanence in the workplace. Fifty years ago, lay-offs in the thousands ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    1 day ago

  • What happens after the war – Mariupol
    Mariupol, on the Azov Sea coast, was one of the first cities to suffer almost complete destruction after the start of the Ukraine War started in late February 2022. We remember the scenes of absolute destruction of the houses and city structures. The deaths of innocent civilians – many of ...
    Open ParachuteBy Ken
    1 day ago

  • Babies and benefits – no good news
    Lindsay Mitchell writes – Ten years ago, I wrote the following in a Listener column: Every year around one in five new-born babies will be reliant on their caregivers benefit by Christmas. This pattern has persisted from at least 1993. For Maori the number jumps to over one in three.  ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    1 day ago

  • Should the RBNZ be looking through climate inflation?
    Climate change is expected to generate more and more extreme events, delivering a sort of structural shock to inflation that central banks will have to react to as if they were short-term cyclical issues. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāMy pick of the six newsey things to know from Aotearoa’s ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 day ago

  • Bernard's pick 'n' mix of the news links
    The top six news links I’ve seen elsewhere in the last 24 hours, as of 9:16 am on Thursday, April 18 are:Housing: Tauranga residents living in boats, vans RNZ Checkpoint Louise TernouthHousing: Waikato councillor says wastewater plant issues could hold up Sleepyhead building a massive company town Waikato Times Stephen ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 day ago

  • Gordon Campbell on the public sector carnage, and misogyny as terrorism
    It’s a simple deal. We pay taxes in order to finance the social services we want and need. The carnage now occurring across the public sector though, is breaking that contract. Over 3,000 jobs have been lost so far. Many are in crucial areas like Education where the impact of ...
    Gordon CampbellBy lyndon
    2 days ago

  • Meeting the Master Baiters
    Hi,A friend had their 40th over the weekend and decided to theme it after Curb Your Enthusiasm fashion icon Susie Greene. Captured in my tiny kitchen before I left the house, I ending up evoking a mix of old lesbian and Hillary Clinton — both unintentional.Me vs Hillary ClintonIf you’re ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    2 days ago

  • How extreme was the Earth's temperature in 2023
    This is a re-post from Andrew Dessler at the Climate Brink blog In 2023, the Earth reached temperature levels unprecedented in modern times. Given that, it’s reasonable to ask: What’s going on? There’s been lots of discussions by scientists about whether this is just the normal progression of global warming or if something ...
    Skeptical Science
    2 days ago

  • Backbone, revisited
    The schools are on holiday and the sun is shining in the seaside village and all day long I have been seeing bunches of bikes; Mums, Dads, teens and toddlers chattering, laughing, happy, having a bloody great time together. Cheers, AT, for the bits of lane you’ve added lately around the ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    2 days ago

  • Ministers are not above the law
    Today in our National-led authoritarian nightmare: Shane Jones thinks Ministers should be above the law: New Zealand First MP Shane Jones is accusing the Waitangi Tribunal of over-stepping its mandate by subpoenaing a minister for its urgent hearing on the Oranga Tamariki claim. The tribunal is looking into the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago

  • What’s the outfit you can hear going down the gurgler? Probably it’s David Parker’s Oceans Sec...
    Buzz from the Beehive Point  of Order first heard of the Oceans Secretariat in June 2021, when David Parker (remember him?) announced a multi-agency approach to protecting New Zealand’s marine ecosystems and fisheries. Parker (holding the Environment, and Oceans and Fisheries portfolios) broke the news at the annual Forest & ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    2 days ago

  • Will politicians let democracy die in the darkness?
    Bryce Edwards writes  – Politicians across the political spectrum are implicated in the New Zealand media’s failing health. Either through neglect or incompetent interventions, successive governments have failed to regulate, foster, and allow a healthy Fourth Estate that can adequately hold politicians and the powerful to account. ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    2 days ago

  • Matt Doocey doubles down on trans “healthcare”
    Citizen Science writes –  Last week saw two significant developments in the debate over the treatment of trans-identifying children and young people – the release in Britain of the final report of Dr Hilary Cass’s review into gender healthcare, and here in New Zealand, the news that the ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    2 days ago

  • A TikTok Prime Minister.
    One night while sleeping in my bed I had a beautiful dreamThat all the people of the world got together on the same wavelengthAnd began helping one anotherNow in this dream, universal love was the theme of the dayPeace and understanding and it happened this wayAfter such an eventful day ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    2 days ago

  • Texas Lessons
    This is a guest post by Oscar Simms who is a housing activist, volunteer for the Coalition for More Homes, and was the Labour Party candidate for Auckland Central at the last election. ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    3 days ago

  • Bernard's pick 'n' mix of the news links at 6:06 am
    The top six news links I’ve seen elsewhere in the last 24 hours as of 6:06 am on Wednesday, April 17 are:Must read: Secrecy shrouds which projects might be fast-tracked RNZ Farah HancockScoop: Revealed: Luxon has seven staffers working on social media content - partly paid for by taxpayer Newshub ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago

  • Fighting poverty on the holiday highway
    Turning what Labour called the “holiday highway” into a four-lane expressway from Auckland to Whangarei could bring at least an economic benefit of nearly two billion a year for Northland each year. And it could help bring an end to poverty in one of New Zealand’s most deprived regions. The ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    3 days ago

  • Bernard's six-stack of substacks at 6:26 pm
    Tonight’s six-stack includes: launching his substack with a bunch of his previous documentaries, including this 1992 interview with Dame Whina Cooper. and here crew give climate activists plenty to do, including this call to submit against the Fast Track Approvals bill. writes brilliantly here on his substack ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago

  • At a glance – Is the science settled?
    On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
    Skeptical Science
    3 days ago

  • Apposite Quotations.
    How Long Is Long Enough? Gaza under Israeli bombardment, July 2014. This posting is exclusive to Bowalley Road. ...
    Bowalley Road
    3 days ago

  • What’s a life worth now?
    You're in the mall when you hear it: some kind of popping sound in the distance, kids with fireworks, maybe. But then a moment of eerie stillness is followed by more of the fireworks sound and there’s also screaming and shrieking and now here come people running for their lives.Does ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    3 days ago

  • Howling at the Moon
    Karl du Fresne writes –  There’s a crisis in the news media and the media are blaming it on everyone except themselves. Culpability is being deflected elsewhere – mainly to the hapless Minister of Communications, Melissa Lee, and the big social media platforms that are accused of hoovering ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago

  • Newshub is Dead.
    I don’t normally send out two newsletters in a day but I figured I’d say something about… the news. If two newsletters is a bit much then maybe just skip one, I don’t want to overload people. Alternatively if you’d be interested in sometimes receiving multiple, smaller updates from me, ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago

  • Seymour is chuffed about cutting early-learning red tape – but we hear, too, that Jones has loose...
    Buzz from the Beehive David Seymour and Winston Peters today signalled that at least two ministers of the Crown might be in Wellington today. Seymour (as Associate Minister of Education) announced the removal of more red tape, this time to make it easier for new early learning services to be ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    3 days ago

  • Bryce Edwards: Will politicians let democracy die in the darkness?
    Politicians across the political spectrum are implicated in the New Zealand media’s failing health. Either through neglect or incompetent interventions, successive governments have failed to regulate, foster, and allow a healthy Fourth Estate that can adequately hold politicians and the powerful to account. Our political system is suffering from the ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    3 days ago

  • Was Hawkesby entirely wrong?
    David Farrar  writes –  The Broadcasting Standards Authority ruled: Comments by radio host Kate Hawkesby suggesting Māori and Pacific patients were being prioritised for surgery due to their ethnicity were misleading and discriminatory, the Broadcasting Standards Authority has found. It is a fact such patients are prioritised. ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago

  • PRC shadow looms as the Solomons head for election
    PRC and its proxies in Solomons have been preparing for these elections for a long time. A lot of money, effort and intelligence have gone into ensuring an outcome that won’t compromise Beijing’s plans. Cleo Paskall writes – On April 17th the Solomon Islands, a country of ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago

  • Climate Change: Criminal ecocide
    We are in the middle of a climate crisis. Last year was (again) the hottest year on record. NOAA has just announced another global coral bleaching event. Floods are threatening UK food security. So naturally, Shane Jones wants to make it easier to mine coal: Resources Minister Shane Jones ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago

  • Is saving one minute of a politician's time worth nearly $1 billion?
    Is speeding up the trip to and from Wellington airport by 12 minutes worth spending up more than $10 billion? Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The six news items that stood out to me in the last day to 8:26 am today are:The Lead: Transport Minister Simeon Brown announced ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago

  • Long Tunnel or Long Con?
    Yesterday it was revealed that Transport Minister had asked Waka Kotahi to look at the options for a long tunnel through Wellington. State Highway 1 (SH1) through Wellington City is heavily congested at peak times and while planning continues on the duplicate Mt Victoria Tunnel and Basin Reserve project, the ...
    Greater AucklandBy Matt L
    4 days ago

  • Smoke And Mirrors.
    You're a fraud, and you know itBut it's too good to throw it all awayAnyone would do the sameYou've got 'em goingAnd you're careful not to show itSometimes you even fool yourself a bitIt's like magicBut it's always been a smoke and mirrors gameAnyone would do the sameForty six billion ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago

  • What is Mexico doing about climate change?
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections The June general election in Mexico could mark a turning point in ensuring that the country’s climate policies better reflect the desire of its citizens to address the climate crisis, with both leading presidential candidates expressing support for renewable energy. Mexico is the ...
    Skeptical Science
    4 days ago

  • State of humanity, 2024
    2024, it feels, keeps presenting us with ever more challenges, ever more dismay.Do you give up yet? It seems to ask.No? How about this? Or this?How about this?When I say 2024 I really mean the state of humanity in 2024.Saturday night, we watched Civil War because that is one terrifying cliff we've ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    4 days ago

  • Govt’s Wellington tunnel vision aims to ease the way to the airport (but zealous promoters of cycl...
    Buzz from the Beehive A pet project and governmental tunnel vision jump out from the latest batch of ministerial announcements. The government is keen to assure us of its concern for the wellbeing of our pets. It will be introducing pet bonds in a change to the Residential Tenancies Act ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago

  • The case for cultural connectedness
    A recent report generated from a Growing Up in New Zealand (GUiNZ) survey of 1,224 rangatahi Māori aged 11-12 found: Cultural connectedness was associated with fewer depression symptoms, anxiety symptoms and better quality of life. That sounds cut and dry. But further into the report the following appears: Cultural connectedness is ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago

  • Useful context on public sector job cuts
    David Farrar writes –    The Herald reports: From the gory details of job-cuts news, you’d think the public service was being eviscerated.   While the media’s view of the cuts is incomplete, it’s also true that departments have been leaking the particulars faster than a Wellington ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago

  • Gordon Campbell On When Racism Comes Disguised As Anti-racism
    Remember the good old days, back when New Zealand had a PM who could think and speak calmly and intelligently in whole sentences without blustering? Even while Iran’s drones and missiles were still being launched, Helen Clark was live on TVNZ expertly summing up the latest crisis in the Middle ...
    Gordon CampbellBy lyndon
    4 days ago

  • Govt ignored economic analysis of smokefree reversal
    Costello did not pass on analysis of the benefits of the smokefree reforms to Cabinet, emphasising instead the extra tax revenues of repealing them. Photo: Hagen Hopkins, Getty Images TL;DR: The six news items that stood out to me at 7:26 am today are:The Lead: Casey Costello never passed on ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago

  • True Blue.
    True loveYou're the one I'm dreaming ofYour heart fits me like a gloveAnd I'm gonna be true blueBaby, I love youI’ve written about the job cuts in our news media last week. The impact on individuals, and the loss to Aotearoa of voices covering our news from different angles.That by ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago

  • Who is running New Zealand’s foreign policy?
    While commentators, including former Prime Minister Helen Clark, are noting a subtle shift in New Zealand’s foreign policy, which now places more emphasis on the United States, many have missed a key element of the shift. What National said before the election is not what the government is doing now. ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    5 days ago

  • 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #15
    A listing of 31 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, April 7, 2024 thru Sat, April 13, 2024. Story of the week Our story of the week is about adults in the room setting terms and conditions of ...
    Skeptical Science
    5 days ago

  • $41m to support clean energy in South East Asia
    New Zealand is demonstrating its commitment to reducing global greenhouse emissions, and supporting clean energy transition in South East Asia, through a contribution of NZ$41 million (US$25 million) in climate finance to the Asian Development Bank (ADB)-led Energy Transition Mechanism (ETM). Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Climate Change Minister Simon Watts announced ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 hours ago

  • Minister releases Fast-track stakeholder list
    The Government is today releasing a list of organisations who received letters about the Fast-track applications process, says RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop. “Recently Ministers and agencies have received a series of OIA requests for a list of organisations to whom I wrote with information on applying to have a ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 hours ago

  • Judicial appointments announced
    Attorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Wellington Barrister David Jonathan Boldt as a Judge of the High Court, and the Honourable Justice Matthew Palmer as a Judge of the Court of Appeal. Justice Boldt graduated with an LLB from Victoria University of Wellington in 1990, and also holds ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 hours ago

  • Education Minister heads to major teaching summit in Singapore
    Education Minister Erica Stanford will lead the New Zealand delegation at the 2024 International Summit on the Teaching Profession (ISTP) held in Singapore. The delegation includes representatives from the Post Primary Teachers’ Association (PPTA) Te Wehengarua and the New Zealand Educational Institute (NZEI) Te Riu Roa.  The summit is co-hosted ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    8 hours ago

  • Value of stopbank project proven during cyclone
    A stopbank upgrade project in Tairawhiti partly funded by the Government has increased flood resilience for around 7000ha of residential and horticultural land so far, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones today attended a dawn service in Gisborne to mark the end of the first stage of the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    8 hours ago

  • Anzac commemorations, Türkiye relationship focus of visit
    Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters will represent the Government at Anzac Day commemorations on the Gallipoli Peninsula next week and engage with senior representatives of the Turkish government in Istanbul.    “The Gallipoli campaign is a defining event in our history. It will be a privilege to share the occasion ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    9 hours ago

  • Minister to Europe for OECD meeting, Anzac Day
    Science, Innovation and Technology and Defence Minister Judith Collins will next week attend the OECD Science and Technology Ministerial conference in Paris and Anzac Day commemorations in Belgium. “Science, innovation and technology have a major role to play in rebuilding our economy and achieving better health, environmental and social outcomes ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    11 hours ago

  • Comprehensive Partnership the goal for NZ and the Philippines
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr.  The Prime Minister was accompanied by MP Paulo Garcia, the first Filipino to be elected to a legislature outside the Philippines. During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon and President Marcos Jr discussed opportunities to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    22 hours ago

  • Government commits $20m to Westport flood protection
    The Government has announced that $20 million in funding will be made available to Westport to fund much needed flood protection around the town. This measure will significantly improve the resilience of the community, says Local Government Minister Simeon Brown. “The Westport community has already been allocated almost $3 million ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • Taupō takes pole position
    The Government is proud to support the first ever Repco Supercars Championship event in Taupō as up to 70,000 motorsport fans attend the Taupō International Motorsport Park this weekend, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. “Anticipation for the ITM Taupō Super400 is huge, with tickets and accommodation selling out weeks ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • Cost of living support for low-income homeowners
    Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced an increase to the Rates Rebate Scheme, putting money back into the pockets of low-income homeowners.  “The coalition Government is committed to bringing down the cost of living for New Zealanders. That includes targeted support for those Kiwis who are doing things tough, such ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • Government backing mussel spat project
    The Coalition Government is investing in a project to boost survival rates of New Zealand mussels and grow the industry, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones has announced. “This project seeks to increase the resilience of our mussels and significantly boost the sector’s productivity,” Mr Jones says. “The project - ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • Government focused on getting people into work
    Benefit figures released today underscore the importance of the Government’s plan to rebuild the economy and have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker Support, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “Benefit numbers are still significantly higher than when National was last in government, when there was about 70,000 fewer ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • Clean energy key driver to reducing emissions
    The Government’s commitment to doubling New Zealand’s renewable energy capacity is backed by new data showing that clean energy has helped the country reach its lowest annual gross emissions since 1999, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. New Zealand’s latest Greenhouse Gas Inventory (1990-2022) published today, shows gross emissions fell ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • Earthquake-prone buildings review brought forward
    The Government is bringing the earthquake-prone building review forward, with work to start immediately, and extending the deadline for remediations by four years, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “Our Government is focused on rebuilding the economy. A key part of our plan is to cut red tape that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Thailand and NZ to agree to Strategic Partnership
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and his Thai counterpart, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, have today agreed that New Zealand and the Kingdom of Thailand will upgrade the bilateral relationship to a Strategic Partnership by 2026. “New Zealand and Thailand have a lot to offer each other. We have a strong mutual desire to build ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Government consults on extending coastal permits for ports
    RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop and Transport Minister Simeon Brown have today announced the Coalition Government’s intention to extend port coastal permits for a further 20 years, providing port operators with certainty to continue their operations. “The introduction of the Resource Management Act in 1991 required ports to obtain coastal ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Inflation coming down, but more work to do
    Today’s announcement that inflation is down to 4 per cent is encouraging news for Kiwis, but there is more work to be done - underlining the importance of the Government’s plan to get the economy back on track, acting Finance Minister Chris Bishop says. “Inflation is now at 4 per ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • School attendance restored as a priority in health advice
    Refreshed health guidance released today will help parents and schools make informed decisions about whether their child needs to be in school, addressing one of the key issues affecting school attendance, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. In recent years, consistently across all school terms, short-term illness or medical reasons ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Unnecessary bureaucracy cut in oceans sector
    Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones is streamlining high-level oceans management while maintaining a focus on supporting the sector’s role in the export-led recovery of the economy. “I am working to realise the untapped potential of our fishing and aquaculture sector. To achieve that we need to be smarter with ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Patterson promoting NZ’s wool sector at International Congress
    Associate Agriculture Minister Mark Patterson is speaking at the International Wool Textile Organisation Congress in Adelaide, promoting New Zealand wool, and outlining the coalition Government’s support for the revitalisation the sector.    "New Zealand’s wool exports reached $400 million in the year to 30 June 2023, and the coalition Government ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • Removing red tape to help early learners thrive
    The Government is making legislative changes to make it easier for new early learning services to be established, and for existing services to operate, Associate Education Minister David Seymour says. The changes involve repealing the network approval provisions that apply when someone wants to establish a new early learning service, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • RMA changes to cut coal mining consent red tape
    Changes to the Resource Management Act will align consenting for coal mining to other forms of mining to reduce barriers that are holding back economic development, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The inconsistent treatment of coal mining compared with other extractive activities is burdensome red tape that fails to acknowledge ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • McClay reaffirms strong NZ-China trade relationship
    Trade, Agriculture and Forestry Minister Todd McClay has concluded productive discussions with ministerial counterparts in Beijing today, in support of the New Zealand-China trade and economic relationship. “My meeting with Commerce Minister Wang Wentao reaffirmed the complementary nature of the bilateral trade relationship, with our Free Trade Agreement at its ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Prime Minister Luxon acknowledges legacy of Singapore Prime Minister Lee
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon today paid tribute to Singapore’s outgoing Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong.   Meeting in Singapore today immediately before Prime Minister Lee announced he was stepping down, Prime Minister Luxon warmly acknowledged his counterpart’s almost twenty years as leader, and the enduring legacy he has left for Singapore and South East ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • PMs Luxon and Lee deepen Singapore-NZ ties
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