- Date published:
6:00 am, September 16th, 2014 - 130 comments
Categories: election 2014 - Tags: election 2014
I need to say this – for those academics who will slice and dice a subject to slithers so small that all that is left is invisible and meaningless; and to all those who think or believe that fascism is marked by brown shorts and Nuremberg rallies – No. Fascism comes with a smile and a wave.
And as I sit here, subjected to a mainstream media that routinely insults my intelligence and dovetails into facile promotions of smiles and waves as ‘news’, I’ve made the only choice I can in this election.
But before I get there, I want to be clear about one thing. I’m not a social democrat and have no real truck for social democracy. Under social democracy my power amounts to 5/8ths of fuck all – a tick in a box once every electoral cycle. But then again, one tick is critical insofar as 100 is not 99.
Now, I joined the Labour Party in an attempt to bring a modicum of democracy to a left wing parliamentary party. David Cunliffe became leader of that party on the back of a wave of optimism and…yeah, he lost it. By my standards, his elevation to leader should have been marked by merry dancing on newly laid turf. Instead he capitulated to the right wing and stupidly mimicked the strategy adopted by Helen Clark when ‘the right’ were in their ascendency. To be clear, Helen was absolutely right to hold the right close in order to limit their rise. But David was residing over their death rattles. And yet, instead of laying them to rest, he brought them to his chest and essentially breathed new life into them.
As a result, we have the ludicrous scenario of an avowedly left leaning leader of the Labour Party being compelled to offer succour to, of all people, Winston bloody Peters and his merry band of unreconstituted conservatives. To be clear – Winston’s time has been. It’s high time he was put to bed as opposed to being taken to bed. And the recent announcement that any Labour led government could only possibly include Winston alongside the Greens is an absolute betrayal of all the thousands of people who, just like me, joined Labour to ensure a shift to the left.
And that is why I’ll be voting IMP.
I could have voted Green. I like the Green policies; I have no problem with the Green Party and sincerely hope their final vote tally is somewhere north of the 15% they seek to achieve.
But here’s the rub. Winston and his band would hobble any Green influence to the worst of their ability. And I both want and need a truly progressive government. The formerly conservative left Labour voters (looking at you Lynn) will give the Greens ample numbers.
And so I’ll be casting my vote at IMP, on the basis that, alongside Hone Harawira and Annette Sykes winning their electoral seats, my ‘tick will put Laila Harre into parliament. You see. One is not insignificant. 100 is not 99. And Labour needs to be compelled to negotiate with IMP as opposed to New Zealand First in order to get that truly progressive government we all need.
Dreaming? Then share the dream and make it real.
I am not sure how Winston thinks he can govern with labour without the Greens.
I can’t disagree with your analysis. As many here know I am voting Greens.
In fact I will be doing so at about 11am this morning.
I have donated small amounts to their campaign and done some volunteering.
I hope IMP gets past the threshold or Hone wins over Kelvin and they get in that way.
I would like to see the combined efforts of Hone and the Greens REALLY addressing poverty. Not waiting for the economy to grow as some kind of magic wand that hasn’t worked for the last 40 years…
If we don’t learn from our mistakes we ARE repeating them.
“I am not sure how Winston thinks he can govern with labour without the Greens.”
1. it’s a dog whistle. He’s after as many disaffected National and Labour voters as he can get. This is not just about increasing NZF’s vote, it’s about decreasing his coalition partner’s vote so that he can gain more power.
2. the smaller the gap between the GP and NZF the more power Peters will have to sideline the GP. Whether that means them being relegated to third partner, or outside the coalition completely will depend on the numbers. I doubt the latter, but you never know what Labour will do.
I largely agree with Bill’s post except for this. If Peters has the power to sideline the GP, he will have even more power to do so to the IP and MANA. They won’t be part of cabinet, so their power will be in sitting outside and having a free voice. That is crucial, but I’m not sure it’s more crucial than the GP having significantly more MPs than NZF.
Much of this will be down to Labour. They’re between a rock and a hard place. If Labour betray the GP again I doubt that any of the affected parties will ever forgive. But Peters may very well hold Labour to ransom.
You appear to echo something lanth said further down and I agree the thinking is slightly flawed.
In the end we all need to vote for what we want for NZ in our party vote…
I have voted Green party
In my electorate, with gritted teeth I voted for Mr Brash’s biographer, paul Goldsmith .
I really hope Goldsmith wins that one
Me too Bill. Wavering, unsure a bit embarrassed when brighter minds than mine call them “f*^#+~< idiots" but I will take my precious vote and give it to Hone.
Can anyone remember how it felt during and just after the Springbok Tour?
We didnt do what we set out to do…stop the Tour. The Nats won the election. A lot of us had our phones tapped by the Secret Police, for that is what they were and remain.
We didnt know, couldnt know, how standing up for freedom would effect change in SA but also in NZ. Not perfection….but change nevertheless and towards Justice and Peace.
Dreams make us human. And humans are frail and prone to mistakes. But if hope and courage and outrage combine then change will happen.
Mana Movement will still be around regardless of the election result and will be part of the hard core left needed to seriously organise a fightback against a wounded tory beast of a National govt that might just drag its carcass across the line. All the forces of the media will be required for that to happen and likely last minute accommodations and deals by the Nats.
And in the event of a Labour led govt of whichever composition, several IMP MPs will provide the long missing perspective in parliament of unequivocal support for independent foreign policy, exposure of the TPPA and firm support for the marginalised and oppressed in this country.
Bit harsh Bill. IMP’s basic problem is its reliance on Dotcom. From a left wing perspective his presence makes campaigning really difficult. To be frank he has been a distraction and far too often the story is about him rather than the 250,000 kids living in poverty.
Of course Cunliffe had to work with right wing MPs in Labour. It is what a leader has to do.
Despite this the party has a progressive policy platform and an energetic membership who are going to insist on this continuing.
That it rolls so easily off your typewriter that there are right wingers in the Labour Party is a bit telling Mickey?
Not keeping them in the team would be a bad idea given their behaviour on occasion Tracey.
labour is a democracy albeit a poorly funded one versus the corpratocracy of national where you sign up and get paid off to go away.
Shows collaborative leadership skills which hopefully will be very handy from Sunday.
Keeping them in the team hasn’t worked well either. Sometimes a purge is better than a slow lingering death.
All relative Tracey. The party is a broad church.
A broad church for a party of the left includes right wingers?
“Broad church” has become a slogan for those unable to explain WHO labour stands for…
Perhaps you could change it to “braid brush” ?
The democratic reality under MMP Tracey is that a diversity of views are going to be found in any main stream party.
to appeal to as many people as possible across the political spectrum to get the votes in?
Surely with MMP the parties can be much clearer about their constituency, knowing that they will have to partner with other parties to form a government they don’t have to be all things to all people themselves?
My very strong impression is that the one thing that is saving National is that it has a perception of stability because of its size and the miniscule size of its support parties. The relative strength on the left parties means that with the prospect of three reasonably sized caucuses a lot of negotiation will be required. National uses this to scare swinging voters back to it.
Because it is presenting as a FPP party you mean? I certainly am hearing right wing family and friends saying they wish we could return to FPP, from age ranges of 50 to 80.
You said the reality was under MMP that a diversity of views will be found in a party but I am suggesting that is only so amongst those parties (like National and Labour) who are still playing in the FPP sandpit
Please tell me, who are the left-wingers in National?
I’m honestly curious.
Can’t think of any off the top of my head
Well, I suppose that Bill English might be somewhat more left wing than Key.
Nah, who am I kidding – they’re both radical right-wing.
“Of course Cunliffe had to work with right wing MPs in Labour. It is what a leader has to do.”
Why can’t he fire them? I don’t mean as MPs, but demote them out of any positions of power withing the caucus?
“The democratic reality under MMP Tracey is that a diversity of views are going to be found in any main stream party.”
I think there is some confusion of terms here. Obviously in any group of people there will be a range along the left/right spectrum depending on where the centre is. But I don’t think that’s what Bill was talking about. Bill was talking not about left wing people who are closer to the overall political centre, he was talking about actual right wing people (is that right Bill?). Some Labour MPs are just in the wrong party.
I’m referring to Cunliffe indicating a clean break with neo-liberalism and my perception that moves away from neo-liberalism have been dragged back or down somewhat by neoliberals (the right) within Labour.
Goff, King, Mallard, Nash, Cosgrove – who’d I miss.
What makes you think that the MPs you have mentioned are ‘right wing’? Is it just your perception or just repeating a fashionable line or is it actually based on the policies they have expressed? Can you clarify your assertion clearly please?
Yes, pretty much what they have put into the public sphere. Nash in particular – you can read some of his rant’s over at the daily blog. Goff, he defends Tina everytime he can. Cosgrove has not done much of anything, which generally speaks volumes. and Mallard didn’t he go riding with old whaleoil? King she is the silent killer of left wing dreams, but then again maybe that’s what you want Clem, maybe that your buzz, who am I to criticize anyone for a fetish.
There are a number in that caucus who are also painfully centrist/market sympathists.
You have just ranted stupid and unfair poppy cock with no real substance, evidence or justification in order to discredit them.
Yes, but the question was what was meant by ‘right’ within Labour. Micky was saying that it’s normal to have a spectrum in a party. I thought you were saying there are actual right wingers in Labour. The ones in their death rattles.
I’ll note in passing that the Labour caucus elects a Labour cabinet. The National leader appoints a National cabinet. National leaders have far greater power to throw around than their Labour equivalents.
In other words, DC doesn’t have the numbers?
Where is this written? A LAB/GR Cabinet should have approx 25% Green MPs. How does that work?
At the Leadership vote, DC certainly did not have the numbers inside caucus. It’s not seriously changed. He has to get over the 2011 result.
It has been Labour Party rules since the days of Michael Joseph Savage (in fact, I think it might have been at John A. Lee’s insistence).
Presumably, they would negotiate with the Greens (and NZ First) about which party gets what portfolios, then Labour’s caucus selects who it wants as Labour cabinet ministers, then Cunliffe divides up the Labour portfolios among those people.
Well I hope that works as I’d still rather see a parliamentary solution to this problem, nevertheless I’d have to say that it seems unlikely.
Agree Micky, DC has to work with the Right in Labour, he doesn’t have a choice. And lets be honest…the reason that Labour are struggling to get voters is because of the actions of the ABC faction over the last 3 years combined with Nats Dirty Politics. But one thing is for sure, Labour need to use the next 3 years getting its brand in order. I hear endlessly from voters that they believe that Labour has a better set of policies and that they are impressed with Cunliffe in the debates BUT are going to stick with National. For me, that points to a brand trust issue…Labour need to spend the next 3 years getting things in order, I suggest a good start would be a cleanout of 2 to 3 of the old guard in the first week after the election. Then the caucus need to spend the next 3 years as a COHESIVE team working together with each other and members to get the Labour vote above 35% in 2017.
That sounds more like an intelligence issue.
“Company A has good products and is run by nice people, but I’ll stick with Company B even though they poisoned our water supply.”
And I’d like to leave a little scribble for those fascists who have brought this society about, those supposed ‘libertarians’ in Silicon Valley and beyond, those jerks who told us to get used to having no privacy, those morons who fund undemocratic companies whose only being is to collect data on us all. You have bought about our demise, no-one operates at all well when they’re being watched. I loathe you with all my being.
That’s a bit unfair. The internet was originally a big government project and, while it’s reasonable in my view to scoff at cyber-libertarianism, it’s a stretch to claim that everything that has come about has come about in accordance with some infernal design. In most cases the bad consequences were side effects of innocuous strategies.
People willingly give up their personal information online without even thinking about it. Not sure if there’s something in our DNA that makes us weak in this respect, but it is like that.
I think the ‘get used to having no privacy’ is indicative of a collusion, Tom.
And we don’t willingly give up our privacy, anymore than when we started using telephones, radios or television.
Not with radios or telephones as they were strictly broadcast mediums, but when telephones came along people did give up a lot of privacy. When telephones came in, the local operator usually listened to other people’s calls.
Yes very true, but cutting that operator out of the loop stopped that as well. The issue here is that there is one agency who is accessing not just the telephone calls we make to friends (and that old telephone operator could not monitor everyone) but all of our email communications, everywhere we go on the net, the stories that we read online, our bank accounts, the posts we make to our friends on twitter or Facebook (especially Facebook because they demand your identity).
None of us agreed to that. It should not be the case that when new technology comes along that previous norms are overridden and our rights trampled.
These revelations only cause concern for people that are already voting Labour, Green, IMP etc. National/Act voters are not interested in these sort of issues. They are more concerned about the damage that a Labour + comrades government would do to NZ.
From all of the people that I have talked to about this issue, the large majority are not concerned, they have nothing to hide. If measures are necessary to protect ourselves from cyber threats and Islamic terrorists – go for it.
Well you just showed clearly that you don’t live in New Zealand, or your mind doesn’t at least. There is no Islamic terrorism here. Our terrorists wear business suits, hack undersea cables and insert minions into PM roles. They are the cyber threats.
You are not much of a reader are you wrecking?
You are not much of a thinker are you Tracey?
Why are you promoting thugs and criminals to the roll of terrorist – wrekingball? What cyber threats? Seriously, the main cyber threats are those involving inter corporate warfare, and why should my hard earned taxes fund their bloody war.
Do you not understand how mass surveillance works – wrekingball? And please wrekingball tell me a government who did spy on their own people – then didn’t turn on them? History says once a state/government goes down that path, either left or right – only huge amounts of pain and suffering follow.
have you read key’s documents released yesterday and if you have, can you quote the parts that prove he was right when he said there is no mass surveillance of NZers?
… “they have nothing to hide”…
What an inane and utterly brainless position.
It is people who say things like this ( like you) who are facilitating the creeping invasiveness of corporates and government. You sheepled idiot.
I have everything to hide – everything.
Because it is PRIVATE.
Who I ring, when, for how long.
Where I spend, how much, and on what.
What I watch, why, and with whom.
What I type, What I say, Who I hear, Who my friends are, Who their friends are, What they said, and to Whom and about what.
And I don’t really care if Foodtown share their data about my spending with Countdown, because it’s their data- and I can choose not to buy there.
It’s when my state and government do it that bothers me.
And it needs to be PRIVATE and HIDDEN – because in the police state where I grew up – – it was usually acquiescents like you who sat behind your cliches and helped the bad guys oppress us.
‘nothing to hide’ – lol.
Wait until my ‘National Psychopath Party’ is in charge
– then WE’ll DECIDE if you or your loved ones have anything to HIDE, not you.
Actually, it’s not their data at all as it belongs to the state and going and buying somewhere else still requires that data to be collected. We have limited resources available and so we need to know where and when it’s being used but it only needs to be known in aggregate.
Good article. Not sure Winston is all that bad. He’s not Keys, that’s for sure. As to Labour, well, lets be honest when was the last time they “were” Labour. Post Lange election in the eyes of those like me who have been around long enough to remember. Their loss of identity and sell out to right leaning philosophies has after 30 or so years come back to haunt them. If they don’t change I personally do not think they will be around in another 30 years. But that’s their problem, I wont be voting for them and personally do not care. There are other partied who can occupy the philosophical space they have vacated.
Winston isn’t all bad. He’s done some very good things. But he’s not left wing and won’t deliver a left wing govt. He’ll either go with National, or he will go with Labour and hobble the Labour/GP attempt to resinstate left wing values in NZ.
Isn’t the potential problem that Hone is currently polling 38% to Kelvin Davis’ 37%? If KD wins then the left loses all of IMP’s 2+% of the vote which will all but guarantee an overall election win for the right.
Is this poll
I haven’t seen any background on this poll, but it looks dangerous…
According to Hone the same poll last election had a similar neck and neck result but he won by about a 10% margin?
Easy enough to check I would have thought.
I still believe polls are being used as a substitute for thinking both thinking by journalists and the electorate. There’s no substitute for thinking
That was true Tracey. The polls claimed they were neck and neck and yet on the day Harawira easily won.
The 2011 election was the third time in row that Harawira had beaten Davis for the Te Tai Tokerau seat. This year will be the fourth.
The polls are broken as indicators of voting patterns. I suspect this is due to a mismatch in study populations: Those who are motivated to cast a vote in an election not being the same group as; those with a landline who will even pickup an unrecognised number, and then not just hangup when asked to participate in some telemarketing exercise.
But maybe the polls are actually fraudulently conducted with interviews only conducted to give cover to already predetermined results. I like to think that any statistician worthy of the name would be revolted by such number fiddling. Though we do live in a country where the courts regard Slater as a journalist.
In any case, after the election, when the voting results are demonstrably at variance with the polls; the media will have the chance to review their use of such flawed instruments. But I rather think they will make up a story about some external event (last night’s Moment of Truth?) changing everything in this last week, instead of admitting their error in relying on such a convenient props.
The polls 9except Roy Morgan) just before the last election said National was at 52% and would rule alone easily! National got onlyv47% and was able to get just a one seat advantage with the help of Banks and Dunne, and got the Maori Party in as a buffer!
Don’t TRUST the polls. I think most of them are slightly cooked by RW controllers.
This position actually doesn’t make any logical sense.
Winston is proposing going with Labour to shut out the Greens because he thinks he might be in an electoral position to do so.
Cunliffe has already emphatically and repeatedly ruled out working with IMP in the cabinet. Winston has already emphatically and repeatedly ruled out working with any “race-based party” which includes Mana.
It seems unlikely that either Cunliffe or Winston will go back on those statements, and Cunliffe, on current polling, will need Winston in order to form a government.
Therefore, voting for IMP is a guarantee that your vote will not go to representation in cabinet.
If you want to prevent NZFirst going it alone with Labour at all costs, then surely the answer is to vote Greens, to give them such a commanding lead that Winston can’t make his argument fly – or the Greens get so many concessions from Labour for C&S that it’s a pyrrhic victory.
Voting for IMP is a complete side-show in this environment.
Latest polling in TTT puts Hone at 38% and Kelvin at 37%, so there’s a chance (33% on iPredict) that IMP won’t get into Parliament anyway.
Can Winston govern with Labour without the Green Party? Is it possible with the MParty to get over the line without Greens?
My observation of the Green party is if they can get enough of their policies they don’t mind not being at the cabinet table (not saying they do not want to have cabinet posts). Winston despite his lower polling than them is always after status (Cabinet post and will probably want Foreign affairs back or DPM).
Not sure what party you mean why you say “MParty” or what them “get[ing] over the line” has to do with the Greens.
am trying to establish how labour and winston can govern wo the greens
Confidence and Supply from the Greens.
so winston needs cooperation from Greens or he wont govern with labour.
Yes, but there is a world of difference between being part of cabinet as second party, and being outside government with a C and S agreement.
I understand that difference. I am trying to make the point that winston doesnt want the greens but without their agreement, in some form, he cant rule with labour
That’s fairly irrelevant Tracey. Peters is making a power play. Truth has little to do with it.
If you are talking about Lanth’s original comment about NZF going it alone, am pretty sure he meant GP outside of cabinet, but still in C and S.
That’s the entire point – he’ll govern with National instead.
Thank you Lathanide you have concisely summed up what I was thinking.
That anyone would vote IMP in preference to the Greens has me baffled, I also believe their is only one party winston will go with and that’s national.
“Therefore, voting for IMP is a guarantee that your vote will not go to representation in cabinet.
If you want to prevent NZFirst going it alone with Labour at all costs, then surely the answer is to vote Greens, to give them such a commanding lead that Winston can’t make his argument fly – or the Greens get so many concessions from Labour for C&S that it’s a pyrrhic victory.
Voting for IMP is a complete side-show in this environment.”
Like the GP, the IMP will be a strong voice and have influence outside of cabinet. The GP has achieved much in the past 20 years.
Mana may be an offshoot of the mP but they’re not a race based party.
But will still be represented in parliament and, in time, probably in government.
Well, it does make sense Lanthanide, but since you appear to be experiencing difficulties, I’ll try to make it simple for you.
David Cunliffe said he’d deal with the cards he was dealt by the electorate. On that basis he refused, on more than one occasion, to be drawn on any post election negotiations. But then he up and wrote off IMP on the basis they had nowhere else to go and elevated the status of NZFirst in the eyes of the electorate at the same time by stating they would have a place in government.
To me, that’s him trying to have his cake and eat it and, I suspect, a result of pressure being applied by ‘the right’ within caucus. Now, whatever the machinations behind such announcements, I’m of the opinion that he should deal with the hand he’s dealt and not attempt to game the deal. (ie, he should be held to his is original position)
So, if IMP can garner support on a level or beyond that of NZ First, then he’s forced back to dealing with what we’ve dealt him rather than dealing with what he’s ‘gamed’.
Sure, if you think IMP can get more votes than NZFirst I think you’ve got a reasonable case that Cunliffe can change his pre-election stance without looking too stupid (he’ll still look somewhat stupid).
Of course since NZFirst are likely to get 7% or more, and IMP are polling around 1.5-2%, this is a bit of a pipe dream.
So, given the game theory on the likely outcomes, voting for the Greens will likely help your aims more than voting for IMP will.
so there’s a chance (33% on iPredict) that IMP won’t get into Parliament anyway.
Really your going to quote from a source discredited by being used by those involved in Dirty politics. Sheesh Lanthanide, you not keeping up with the reading?
I’m not ‘quoting’ from them, I’m just using them as a (somewhat) impartial source for the likelihood of Hone winning TTT, given there is fairly thin polling data on individual electorates because anecdotes from those ‘on-the-ground’ is usually very biased.
You’ll note that the iPredict odds are significantly more in favour of Hone than the just-published poll results are.
Should the left lose it will be IMP’s fault. Media and history will write it so.
DotCom’s entire intervention looks like delivering precisely the same electoral result as last time. Top work DotCom and all who’ve been bought by him.
lol ad – ‘Media and history will write it so’ – already given up eh? already looking for scapegoats and excuses? Guess what – just vote for the party you believe in, the race isn’t over yet.
Agree of course.
I was responding to Bill.
I don’t think so. It may have pissed off some conservative floating voters (like my natural inclinations if I didn’t think). but it isn’t like Labour is exactly retaining them at present and they are a volatile bunch. I suspect that they’re more likely to head to their old home at NZF than they are to head to National or conservatice.
I think that the main effect if the IMP is to get a pile of generally apolitical youngsters involved in politics. The group that were in the line had the usual old grizzled vets of the hard left, people who were interested in the event, and a lot of trendy youngsters under the age of 30. They were acting the same way that people of that age group did back in 1981. They were getting political and it was because Key and co were imposing on their lives.
It is going to be interesting seeing the effect that has on political life over the coming decades.
Yes it’s mobilised people under 30, and yes anger is good right now.
Whether 20+% undecideds will vote, will break left, and will do so sufficiently to get seats rather than be a massive wasted vote, is the biggest political gamble I’ve ever seen in our democracy.
Sure politics isn’t fair, but its a big call to pay to dominate every news cycle 5 days from polling, and not even be a citizen of New Zealand.
The only “gamble” is Hone winning Te Tai Tokerau. The undecideds are factor is irrelevant: if they stay in on Election Day they were going to anyway and has nothing to do with Internet Mana or Kim Dotcom.
Was there something that Labour or Greens were going to do with this air time that would better put John Key under pressure and cross examination?
Bottom line is that Labour polling mid to high twenties and Greens maybe at 13 has relatively little to do with our German entrepreneur DJ and relatively more to do those parties themselves. With Internet Mana consistently polling around 2% or less, you can’t even say that they took any votes from Labour.
Bearing in mind that last time was actually agonisingly close?
25,000-30,000 people voting for Labour instead of National, and Key would have been gone.
I suspect that Hone will win and IMP will get close to 5% of party vote bringing in 4 to 6 MPs in, and to me that is a very good thing too. IMP has some top class people in their list.
IMP is where my Party Vote is going, but I’ve been having my doubts about Beyer in Te Tai Tonga so I’ll just wait and see who gets my other vote.
Beyer is a political flake who isn’t worth wasting time on. Poor IMP that they couldn’t find anyone else at such short notice; then again the fact they found her at short notice is telling.
You are a moaning negative-vibe person and your views may convince me to vote for her – thanks for that.
If that’s what you call a “realist” then I’ll gladly take the label.
Cool, we are both happy.
Yup …this time I party vote Internet /Mana!…because they inspire me!…they are taking the fight to John Key and there is no mincing around and petty point scoring or one upmanship behind the scenes … or hints of working with Nactional
…In the past i have worked for and voted staunchly Labour , then NZF ( when it was to the Left of Labour …not hard with Act /Roger at the helm….and then strategically to get Labour / Left in)…. then i have voted Green ……and while this time I have given time and financial support to the Greens…i will vote Int/Mana
As far as I am concerned a Labour /Green/NZF govt with Int/MANA in support is not a bad outcome!…may it happen!…may we support it to happen!
….because John Key’s boys here and overseas will be smearing and spying and lying to cause as much havoc and disharmony to the Left as possible ….to prevent a Labour/Left coalition WIN….
( anything is good that gets this John Key Nact govt out!)
The trouble with giving one’s party vote to IMP is that Labour has refused to include them as part of a coalition. So while it might help to bring in some good IMP MPs to Parliament, it will do nothing for achieving a majority of seats for the Left.
Don’t get impatient.
There is a hell of a learning curve in being a MP and people who get promoted or who promote themselves tend to muff it badly.
1. NZ First after the 1996 election is a good case in point.
2. Alliance after the 1999 election is even better.
There are other examples further back in NZ’s history.
Hone has now had the experience as an MP. However he isn’t exactly the most measured of people and needs to have the experience of actually running something and being responsible for it (which is what Cabinet Ministers do). Associate minister outside cabinet is what he should be doing..
Laila has has two terms as an MP and was a minister in the second. But was clearly not all that ready for it. In part I blame the rapid kicking of the few relatively experienced New Labour MPs into ministerial positions as a primary reason for the disintegration of it in that 1999-2002 term
If they get into parliament and I think that they will between 2-3% and 3-4 MPs, then Labour did them a favour. They need to build their party and their MPs to be ready to get involved in the process of governing. Being short-termers will just give them New Labours fate or the fate that the Maori party is facing.
And even within major parties, David Shearer is a recent cautionary tale.
That is simply Labour posturing. Undignified, arrogant and actually totally unnecessary, in my opinion. Labour wanting to be dominant and not really showing much inspiration on how to respect the reality of coalitions. I’d love Labour to explain the particular policies of IMP that are so inconsistent with Labour that they could not be considered respected potential partners? Perhaps Labour need to apologise for being a party. Enough sledging. (Compared to the lunatics in Act and Conservatives and the Sleazy Dirty Political Liars, Labour are approaching Sainthood).
I’m probably floating, until election day. At the moment, I wish I could divide my party vote between Greens and IMP.
You could always ( 😈 ), party vote and electorate vote! Of course the electorate vote is likely to be as futile a gesture as it was prior to MMP.
That’s not a problem. In fact, I tend to view it as a plus. The Greens have never been in government and they’re a) going strong an b) have significant political achievements under their belt.
Actually, it does. And if IMP get enough seats then if NZF don’t support what Labour/Greens want to do then IMP probably will.
The more IMP support, the better.
fambo: Cunliffe merely said they won’t get a place around the cabinet table. Given the uncertainties that currently exist that seems reasonable. But it doesn’t mean they can’t come to an agreement of some sort – a memo of understanding or a confidence and supply arrangement. There is no suggestion Labour would cut them completely out into the cold.
I think Labour feels it has to go careful on IMP. There are far more people out there who believe John Key than believe Kim Dotcom. As usual, the sheeple are way behind the ball game and they can take months… even years to catch up with the rest of us. In other words they don’t want to frighten the horses prior to the election.
IMP are better off out of cabinet this term anyway. They need to be free to say what they want.
Yes I agree with that.
Bill – I fixed the name. You are accurate in that I am an naturally economic conservative, social liberal, and only an intellectually left (because I can see the necessity). But with the exception of the latter that is who the bulk of the voters are. Moving a party doesn’t move them. You have to convince them by showing that it works
BTW: Lyn says hi..
Why would you be economically conservative, if you are intellectually left? (not trolling – serious question)
Oh I now see you have answered this above. Please delete this and the aforegoing.
Ah, thanks. And sorry for getting it wrong. Correct spelling now seared into the grey matter 😉
Your evaluation of Cunliffe is more generous than mine, Bill. I still want to believe he just isn’t another hollow careerist. I believe he was sincere when he talked about child poverty in the debate, but what is he prepared to do? SFA. Some deep concern that is.
I think it would be better that the left lose this election than go down this route. and yes, IT Mana. What else?
I went to i-predict yesterday afternoon because I wanted to bet on Mana getting at least four seats, before last night’s thing changed the odds (and because I like a flutter). Unfortunately that option wasn’t running. Not interested in predicting electorate seats, it’s the number of MPs that matters.
I reckon I-M will get four minimum. Have done for a while now. People are angry even if no-one is listening. Clever of them to chase the pot and the student vote. There’s a couple of percent right there.
I do hope the IMP do well in this election and that the likes of Harre and Sykes get into parliament.
The events, revelations and responses over the last 24 hours have confirmed my vote for the Greens.
We will need a strong Green contingent in the House to continue to press for changes to our state surveillance laws and systems. Norman came out very strongly and fast in response to Snowden and Greenwald’s revelations. And he has been calling for separation of cyber protection systems and state surveillance systems.
We need a strong Green vote to counter the impact of the NZ First vote. It needs to be a government with a core Labour-Green alliance, with NZ First being marginal.
Dotcom’s fizzer yesterday, plus Greenwald and Snowden’s overwhelming positive impact, shows the pros and cons of KDC making the IP all about him. He needs to be sidelined for IMP to have its most significant impact.
And I also vote on long term track record. There’s no way of telling exactly how the IP will perform once in the House. We can make a fair guess as to how individuals like Harre will perform, but not the overall performance of the IP.
Harre has been the standout addition to the political landscape this year. I have faith that the Internet Party is in good hands with her presence. The Internet-Mana partnership is also better than the sum of their parts. I will be extremely sad if IMP do not make it to Parliament with at least three seats.
I agree with all the positive comments you have made about the Greens.
Agreed re Laila. It is good to have her back on the political stage.
Today I voted and gave two ticks to Labour. I was going to party vote Internet Mana but got scared by the poll this morning that placed doubt on Hone winning his seat, which would have caused my party vote to be wasted.
This is the first time I have given my party vote to Labour, but Cunliffe has been busting a gut and needs all the support he can get. NZ needs a change of govt, and for that to happen Labour needs to maximise its vote.
The IP is not all about KDC, any more than the MANA movement is all about HH. Perhaps we have been a bit too reliant on KDC as a drawcard to public meetings, but he was important to the party formation and alliance with MANA.
The GP does have a much more integrated suite of policies, whereas the IMPs are a bit more piecemeal. In a way, that is what attracted me towards the IP; while the GP does encourage member participation in policy development, the framework of extant policies is such that any contribution is likely to be minor. Whereas, with the IP being so new, one’s contributions have greater effect on party policy (although a countervailing reduction in such policy being enacted in the next parliamentary term).
For me, it comes down to the maths; Labour and Green parties are vying over much the same pool of current voters. The IMPs are relentlessly focussed on increasing the voting population by targeting the youth (IP) & downtrodden (MANA) vote.
I do hope that we have a Labour/ Green government next year, but it seems to me that (counterintuitively) the best way to achieve this is to vote IMPishly.
I do hope the IMP picks up more of the young and disengaged (potential) voters.
As I understand it, the GP are also trying to ensure their supporters do actually get out and vote. It is often said they have a strong following among young people, etc, but they don’t all actually get to the ballot box.
The IMP under-developed policies, means there’s no telling what they’ll be like in another year or two. We know what the Greens policies are now and how they will respond to new issues over the next 2-3 years.
During the next term I will watch the development of Mana, IP, the Greens and Labour, and then decide on how I will vote next time.
KDC continues to be a reason why I wouldn’t vote IP/IMP now.
It’s still early voting until Friday. If you want people to vote for the GP, then getting out doorknocking with a bunch of pamphets and driving anyone who seems keen on the party down to the nearest voting booth is still possible. I’d be doing it myself if I didn’t have a cold (hacking and coughing on peoples doorsteps isn’t the best way to convince them to go vote with you).
There have already been as many advance votes cast this year as there were in all of 2008 (and maybe equalling 2011 by the end of today):
Another valuable contribution, if you don’t drive, would be to volunteer for scrutineering on the 20th. With all of the Nats’ adoption of USAn political techniques, I wouldn’t be surprised if they’d developed their own caging lists that will be used to deny undesirable voters their right to participate in the election.
We need NZF to be optional.
Agreed that is the best outcome.
LAB/GR are going to add up to 44% at best (I’m picking 31%/13%). And to make a stable govt with some margin, they need to be able to count up to 50%. That 6% gap is all Winston, right there.
Yes. And rightly or wrongly, that’s why I’ll be voting IMP. (NZFirst as 4th largest contingent on the left is my hope)
You’re suggesting that IMP can get somewhere between six and ten percent. Am curious where you think those votes are going to come from.
…with the unspoken suggestion that if they take the votes from Greens and Labour then nothing has actually been achieved.
It seems unlikely IMP are going to be directly winning votes off the right, and similarly unlikely that Labour or Greens are going to simultaneously win a large chunk of votes from the right and also lose a large chunk of votes to IMP.
Votes from L, GP, Mp, non-voters, and apolitical swing voters.
I think we have no idea what the disenfranchised National voters are going to do when they realise they can’t actually vote National.
National voters have no problem voting for liars and thieves. Two terms so far.
True, but the truth is that It reflects how poorly up to a million voters view the Opposition parties in comparison.
What chunk of non-voters don’t think about it at all?
A plague on all their houses.
“You’re suggesting that IMP can get somewhere between six and ten percent. Am curious where you think those votes are going to come from.”
Are they hiding underneath kim’s irrefutable evidence?
Nope, nothing there.
Although unfortunately unlikely, if Harre, Yong and Pierard all get in, IP will be a true force to be reckoned with. Especially with Laila acting as mentor to the two younger MPs.
It seems that NZ First can go either way if they score the 10% plus they appear to have. Given their conservative policies with some exceptions its an approach to the middle ground to attract those in the centre of both labour and national. I have been a national supporter for years but have voted NZ First last two elections and will do so again. Why? Because a situation that has befallen this country with Key would never happen under his watch. So when the coalition talks start and strong commission is called Key no longer be an issue. My best wish is that the many NZ First policies are adopted in any ongoing future arrangement – these are
– growth of manufacturing and exports as the main priority
– Taxation incentives for export
– NO capital gain tax
– No foreign non resident sales of houses and farms – other than best business case
– Food gst free
– target immigration and settle around the country for 5 years at least
– introduce regional development with partners to secure jobs in regions
– Buy back of specific key assets with funds set up to do so
– Put in place their fishing policy which is excellent and not all pandering to the commercial fishers
– care for elderly and the young
– binding referendums
Its a pretty simple wish list Bill and its actually what this country needs right now – certainly offers a hell of a lot more than IMP – but Hone has done an amazing job personally and hats off to him
There is a reason Winnie went with helen, she had larger numbers than Cunners will have and her government was neo liberal/right…
Is there any reason that there couldn’t be a L/GP/NZF coalition? As far as I can see the only reason is Winston Peters. Fuck all to do with policy.
Like Jonk Key telling us what to think – what gives you the right to decide what the country needs right now? More right wing claptrap, dressed as left.
Let me go on a limb – what we need is fundamental economic change both on the micro and macro level. If we keep tinkering – we will watch Rome burn. Alarmist, nope, don’t think so – because the problems of corporate capitalism or a more descriptive term – profit taking only capitalism, is it is fundamentally flawed. It pillages infrastructure and workers to take only profit – how long can that go on?
But, please all you neo-cons and conservatives in sheeps clothing, feel free to think this can last. And don’t moan, when we go – I told ya so…
I think you have misinterpreted my post. Keys government thinks 2.3% growth ( and possibly less) is great for the economy and by definition acceptable. I think that is disgraceful. Who is going to change that with visible policies?. NZ First is the only one out there. If you have been listening to and reading their main policy priority it is that. It requires a rethink of everything we do – just like Germany did when they merged with East Germany after the wall came down. Labour are not there yet and National are no where to be seen. Its all very well having these policies but they have to get up and be dealt to. Thats why I believe NZ First is an obvious selection in these times. The other two have had plenty of chances and have stuffed up big time
Any growth above about 0.01% is unsustainable and even the 0.01% is iffy.
Huge amounts of development and increases in productivity are all good though.
Yeah, someone who has seen growth graphs and know what they mean. Especially, the growth over time graphs. Thanks Draco you have made my day.
No Mike I get what your saying, and I fundamentally disagree with it. If only what is wrong with our economy was so simple as the merger as east and west Germany, and yes I know that was not simple.
Imagine if you will, a house – and to keep the house going (growth if you will) some said it was a good idea to sell bits of it off. Then because that sort of worked, now imagine we sold the foundations, the doors, all the windows and the fixtures. At the same time we keep adding on to the top of the house more and more rooms.
Get the picture, get why some on the left have been calling it a zombie economy?
That is hardly an analogy Adam. I was in Germany at the time and saw it unfold. It requires plans and settings, joining all to the outcome. So a state with 20% unemployment would attract government infrastructure help to introduce investor equity, expertise and tax concessions based on exports and likely jobs. It required a shift in thinking and approach. And it worked as seen by Germany now where it is as the powerhouse of Europe.In Kiwi the sport for the past 30 years has been to buy residential property and watch it grow in value which is all very nice but does not do much for putting food on the table or developing businesses. We have muddled along for near on 30 years.
So when a Japanese consortium arrived here years ago to build a small goods factory where all product is exported to Japan what could/should have been done? We should have developed a sister business alongside them providing access to the market and to provide Kiwi jobs.The way through is to join up with the market providers a tiered supply chain from start to finish – access by agreement and carrots for hard places to get off the ground. Most importantly the people need to think in these terms and not in terms of house speculation and working for families.
Yep this is the kind of systematic long term thinking that NZ has systematically strangled over 25 years.
The sooner we wake up to the fact that last nights discussion at the town hall is taken as a bottom line on how this country is going to get a future as part of asia rather than the US the smarter we will be.
America will become a greater mercenary force than it is now with all of its prisons defense forces and agencies that will eventually only answer to corporate payers and little to elected govt power of control
Europe and Britain no nothing and care little of the pacific region and the power of Asia is now far greater for us and this is why Key has made a mess he has tried to play global games with a small country that is economically incapable of sustaining his egocentric arrogance that drives him to believe he can achieve a status in the eyes of those who rule the world that will make us equal in value and power
Get Real we are just a strategic base at best for those larger powers whether it be China US or old colonial rulers
The last thing we need is to be a military surveillance base as our default economy funder
Fuck You Key your a bloody fascist
Slivers, not slithers… Please correct! Little mistakes like this on a news page irk me to a disproportionate degree 🙁