Roy Morgan

Written By: - Date published: 11:45 am, February 12th, 2008 - 6 comments
Categories: polls - Tags:

Roy Morgan’s latest poll is out.

It shows a big drop of 6.5 for National and a corresponding swing to Labour and the Greens, up 3 and 2.5 respectively.


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Here’s a small version of their graph of the trends:

roymorgangraph.gif

6 comments on “Roy Morgan”

  1. This poll shows National leading, but not in a position to lead a government which delivers to the demands of their most passionate supporters.

    In fact, it is possible for Labour to remain in office in this poll, with Labour Progressive Greens = 58 MP 4 = 62/122.

    NZF seems to be picking up of some of the Nats support, and this be will be a concern for the Nats if NZF continues polling below 5% – unless they put Burhqa Bob on a tight leash.

  2. Phil 2

    I find it curious that as Labour – and to a lesser extent, National – have talked up the environmental rhetoric, the party vote share for the Greens hasn’t fallen…

    By the way, does anyone know what “dead cat bounce” means?

  3. Dancer 3

    i thought this was an interesting quote from Roy Morgan

    “voters in New Zealand will have to decide whether the leadership offered by Helen Clark over the past 8 years is deserving of another term, or whether the untried leader of the National Party, John Key, is up to the task of managing the complex international economic situation that faces New Zealand in coming years’.

    In the past National has been associated with “good for the economy” vibes. However Cullen has tested that assumption with his “prudent economic manager” approach (despite the impatience of his critics). Add in the uncertain international climate and the stage is set for some interesting manouvering.

  4. insider 4

    Phil

    It means that anything if dropped from a high enough level will bounce upwards. Doesn’t mean things are looking good for it overall though

  5. Phil 5

    insider;

    very good, top marks

    captcha; “prevented optimism”… sounds like the mission statement for a BRT business confidence survey

  6. Dan 6

    National has always painted itself as “good for the economy” but that has always been a reflection of what the National supporters would paint. They like the party’s views on wage rates and protectionism and unions and welfare. The reality is that the economy is much wider than “good for the economy” vibes. Nordmeyer, Kirk, Rowling were all very cautious financially. National’s Muldoon pandered to the farmers and the Think Big proponents, and bought votes at election time with disastrous results.
    Instead of tax relief as a boost to the economy, maybe a move away from a low wage economy might stimulate similar growth and go to more. Australia is always touted by the right as a success story, so let’s pay the wages to keep people here. There is a fatal flaw in the logic of the right.
    Incidentally, one area of fascination for me is why so many in our armed forces are such strong National supporters when in fact the services do far better under Labour governments.

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