Roy Morgan

Written By: - Date published: 2:40 pm, March 10th, 2008 - 27 comments
Categories: polls - Tags:

The latest Roy Morgan poll is out, covering the period February 18 – March 2. The poll shows National still able to govern alone, but after John Key’s performance last week it’s looking increasingly unlikely that National will be able to hold onto its 15 point lead until polling day.

A few more points for Labour and the Greens and we might just have an interesting race on our hands.


rm450

27 comments on “Roy Morgan”

  1. higherstandard 1

    Tane

    Even though I’ll be voting towards the right I would be amazed if anyone gets a mandate to vote alone under MMP.

    I think a more likely scenario is as per the Marae digi poll with the Maori Party being the possible King/Queen maker – or alternatively supporting one or the other on votes of confidence and supply

  2. Tane 2

    HS – I agree that’s the most likely scenario. Naturally I’d prefer a Labour/Green/Maori deal.

    I also thought it was interesting NZ First being on 4%. We should be careful not to write off Winston this early in the piece.

  3. Santi 3

    Whatever the final numbers the current Labour government is on its way out. The Queen is dead, long live the King!

    The Tories do not have a sensible program and will continue being a softer, blander version of the current socialist regime. That’s democracy after all.

  4. James Kearney 4

    The Tories do not have a sensible program

    I’d like to see it. Seriously- I’d really like to see it.

  5. Brownie 5

    I don’t think at anytime (aside from Dad), anyone, either left or right would discount the Labour Party at all.

    No matter from which side of the tracks you come from, you have to respect the likes of Clark and Williams as being supreme politician and strategists alike and Key/National would discount them as being down and out at their peril.

    I would pick that over the next 3 months, all the polls will be up and down until the final 3 months in the run up when I expect the numbers to firm up. Labour will have willing coalition partners but may not have the “ooomph” themselves to propel their partners into power. Conversely, National has plenty of party ooomph (that would be the technical term) but little in the way of good partnering from minor partys to utilise the MMP environment effectively to govern.

    The potential for a massive overhang, however does exist and could throw the whole structure of the house out of kilter.

  6. higherstandard 6

    Tane

    Think you’re probably right about Winston, although he irks me no end he is a survivor and will ikely pull something out of the hat at the last minute to push NZ first over 5%.

    The perverse thing is the two parties that will have the lions share of support, who are probably the closest in terms of their policies and potential management of NZ are the two that will never be able to govern in tandem.

  7. Tane 7

    I’m not entirely sure that would be desirable HS, such an arrangement would strike me as akin to a one-party system.

    I also think the similarities between National and Labour are exaggerated. The nature of modern elections is such that both parties pitch their policy towards the centre in order to attract swinging voters. In reality the two parties come from very different perspectives – Labour Party activists tend to be well to the left of the Parliamentary party, just as National activists are well to the right of where National’s Parliamentary wing has positioned itself.

  8. Steve Pierson 8

    santi. See Higherstandard and Brownie’s comments? That’s called ‘thoughtful’ and ‘reasonable’. you should try it.

  9. higherstandard 9

    Tane

    You may be right about the activist parts of the parties, however the vast rump of each is towards the centre.

    Steve in relation to Santi although his post is a mite bombastic it’s probably close to the mark

  10. Santi 10

    Steve Pierson, Professor of English, I shall heed your formidable suggestion.

  11. gobsmacked 11

    So, can we have a quick straw poll of the right-leaning visitors … would you prefer National to be propped up by Winston, or the Maori Party? (ACT votes will only come from National, so that’s not an option).

  12. randal 12

    the polls at the moment are just another meedia job..they don’t mean nuthin’ and is there actually a person called roy morgan?

  13. out of bed 13

    This is THE Election for the Greens If they can’t get traction now they never will

  14. higherstandard 14

    You may find it bizarre gs but I’d prefer the Maori party to Winston

  15. dave 15

    A few more points for Labour and the Greens and we might just have an interesting race on our hands.

    Certainly will. A 2% swing to Labour could give us a Labour party in GOvernment that that could well have less votes than the entire Opposition bloc.
    http://big-news.blogspot.com/2008/03/overhang-may-decide-election-isnt-it.html

  16. Santi 16

    “This is THE Election for the Greens If they can’t get traction now they never will”

    I hope the demented Greens never get any traction whatsoever. Jeanette, Sue, and the other lunatics will send New Zealand back to the Stone Age after a few months in government.

    Don’t ever contemplate the possibility…..

  17. out of bed 17

    I hope the demented Greens never get any traction whatsoever

    So the Greens are mad are they ?
    Both Labour and National both now accept climate change and Global warming, Something the Greens have been warning of for over two decades.
    Instead of the Greenwash that the two main parties seem so participating in. The Greens are the only Party with realistic policies that actually address the problems
    that we face as a world and as a nation
    If you are supporting a a party which thinks that you can have unlimited growth using finite resources,
    Then it is you my friend that is shoe strong signs of dementia

  18. out of bed 18

    should be

    Then it is you my friend that is showing strong signs of dementia

  19. out of bed 19

    It has also been shown that Green Party Voters have the highest rate of having an education at Degree level ,then any other party.

  20. Santi 20

    “It has also been shown that Green Party Voters have the highest rate of having an education at Degree level ,then any other party.”

    So what? The same could be said of the Catholic Church in Italy or the Communist Party in the USSR of old.

    It means the masses and the so-called educated class can always be duped. It means bugger all!

  21. out of bed 21

    Now I am of the opinion that a party that wanted to send troops to Iraq to bomb them “into the stone age” also exhibited signs of dementia

  22. highstandard 22

    Tane how about a post on the attached article under rorting

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/4433740a10.html

    Nice to know taxpayers money is being so well spent.

  23. Hey HS – how about you start a blog and put up a post? Do you really think people are here to satisfy your demands???

  24. big bruv 24

    Does Cullen have the numbers yet?

  25. r0b 25

    Does Cullen have the numbers yet?

    Well obviously, he’s only Minister of Finance after all. Despite the international downturn which has wiped out our “operating surplus”, he has been such a good manager of the economy that he can still manage some pretty big numbers – like an extra $700 million for research & development:

    $700m for R&D

  26. big bruv 26

    Is that $700 million for an industry described by Labour as a “sunset industry”?

    Sounds pretty hollow to me.

  27. r0b 27

    It sounds pretty to good to the industry involved though!

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