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Roy Morgan bounces left

Written By: - Date published: 6:12 am, August 20th, 2013 - 76 comments
Categories: greens, labour, national, polls - Tags: ,

Not the usual Roy Morgan post on a poll, but this summary of recent polls contains previously unpublished data to August 11.

National 44 (down 7)
Labour 34 (up 5)
Greens 14 (up 4)
No significant changes in the other parties

Roy Morgan is an erratic poll, so the previous one (which had National on 51%) was probably an outlier. No one on the Left will be breaking out the champagne yet, but it’s good to see a return to the trend of late for the Left bloc to be clearly ahead of National.

76 comments on “Roy Morgan bounces left”

  1. tracey 1

    I dont get excited Bout polls. Rightly or wrongly I believe they are only as good as therson writing the questions.

  2. Melb 2

    Maybe this poll is the outlier.

    • Akldnut 2.1

      You obviously haven’t had a look at the summary or you wouldn’t have made a stupid comment like that, or maybe you did and would have still said it anyways.

    • lprent 2.2

      All local political polls are highly erratic. Small sample sizes, suspect population sampling, etc. The Roy Morgan happens frequently enough (about every two weeks), so you can see it. You can see the underlying trends as well.

      Read the numbers.

  3. amirite 3

    The teflon is starting to wear out, it seems.

  4. hush minx 4

    Two thoughts occur to me – labor is back to where it was in 2008. Good but not good enough. Low 40s is where we need to be, so let this just be a step on the journey. Two, is labour really ready to deal with the greens at almost half their vote? Look how they treated Catherine Delahunty’s bill and you’d say probably not.

    • Jackal 4.1

      Firstly, the fact that Labour is back to 34% while the Green’s have increased by 7.3% to 14% means your comment is largely irrelevant hush minx. On the current numbers Labour would form the next Government with the Greens. Secondly, Catherine Delahunty has had four bills so which one are you talking about exactly? Clearly the Greens and Labour can work constructively together. Labour does not need to “deal with the greens” at all.

      • Colonial Viper 4.1.1

        1/3 Greens Cabinet is going to be a very interesting phenomenon.

      • George D 4.1.2

        What Hush Minx is referring to was a bill that would have withdrawn the ability of the creators of otherwise illegal water pollution to claim exceptional circumstances in perpetuity. Instead, they would have had five years to phase out their pollution. It’s aimed squarely at the Kawerau mill and particular mine sites, but had the support of unions and iwi. It’s hardly unreasonable.

        http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/217021/greens-take-whack-at-labour-over-environment

        We can only speculate as to what the motives of Shearer and his Tight Five were.

        • Jackal 4.1.2.1

          Clearly the Labour members on the committee saying that the black drain bill proposed a too “short a consent time for useful investment” doesn’t preclude them from working with the Greens in government, which seems to be what Hush Minx was arguing.

          Keep in mind that the select committee had a National majority anyway. It’s membership included: Nicky Wagner (Chairperson), Maggie Barry, Jacqui Dean, Paul Goldsmith, Claudette Hauiti, Phil Heatley, Gareth Hughes (replaced by Catherine Delahunty), Raymond Huo, Moana Mackey, Eugenie Sage, Maryan Street and Andrew Williams.

          Granted, Labour not supporting Catherine Delahunty’s bill through the committee stage was stupid, but the issue here is that the bill would essentially mean a huge investment that the owners are unlikely to make or the closure of the Kawarau mill. Labour’s committee members have unfortunately chosen jobs over people’s health and the environment.

          However the committee doesn’t include David Shearer or his so-called tight five does it?

          • bad12 4.1.2.1.1

            Yes Kawarau and Kinlieth, the latter pouring 1000’s of liters of black water daily into the Waikato River which Aucklander’s later go on to drink are two of the larger thorn’s which will have to be addressed at some point in the future,

            The equation being Jobs V enviromental destruction, the question then being what is the commercial viability of both Kawarau and Kinlieth into the future,

            National having set the precedent with it’s 30 million bailout of the Tiwai Point Smelter dare i suggest that the next Labour/Green/Mana Government need look to putting up the monies necessary to ‘fully treat’ the waste water from both these ‘mills’ befor it is allowed to be discharged into our waterways,

            What’s the real cost of doing this, 100-200 million, small change when considered against the wasted resources being poured into roads of No Significance by the present Government. we cannot claim ‘clean green’ status unless we are willing to make it so…

            • grumpy 4.1.2.1.1.1

              A future Labour Greens government would be very interesting and throw up a lot of deals being done by Labour with National, just to keep the country going.

              The question will be – how would the Greens react to that?

              • Draco T Bastard

                throw up a lot of deals being done by Labour with National

                I hope so, it would be the fastest way possible for Labour to become a minor party.

                just to keep the country going.

                Except that it won’t. All it would do would be to enrich the already rich and make a lot of people even poorer – just as the neo-liberal paradigm has done over the last few decades.

            • Jackal 4.1.2.1.1.2

              Attn mods, you might want to move this discussion into open mike?

              bad12

              …dare i suggest that the next Labour/Green/Mana Government need look to putting up the monies necessary to ‘fully treat’ the waste water from both these ‘mills’ befor it is allowed to be discharged into our waterways,

              What’s the real cost of doing this, 100-200 million,

              Unfortunately there are no quick fixes here, being that the dangerous chemicals in the bleaching process are all difficult to remove from the vast amounts of water pulp and paper mills use. In fact there is no way to ‘fully treat’ such waste that I’m aware of and the mutagenic and genotoxic compounds in such discharge aren’t going away anytime soon.

              Kinleith Mill has a consent allowing for wastewater of up to 165000 m3 per day, of which it was originally expected that up to 155000m3/d may be discharged to the Kopakorahi Stream and 10000 m3/d to the Waituna Stream. NZ is currently receiving around 10c for every tonne of waste Kinleith produces. However the cost to clean up a tonne of toxic waste would easily exceed this minuscule reimbursement.

              With an estimated total of 10,060,000 tonnes of effluent discharge from pulp and paper mills into NZ waterways each year, I think your estimate of $100 to 200 million all up is on the very low side. I would suggest that $100 to $200 million would be the per anum cost and that’s before we even look at cleaning up any historic contamination. Unfortunately that cost would make many if not all of these outdated operations financially unviable.

              we cannot claim ‘clean green’ status unless we are willing to make it so…

              I totally agree, which is why we should stop such obviously false advertising.

  5. Sanctuary 5

    Dollars to donuts National’s incessant polling picked up the same trend as this poll. It would explain Key’s sudden decision to appear on Campbell live and to try and take personal control of the agenda of the GCSB debate.

  6. Sable 6

    I don’t trust polls that use small samples but I do hope based on the Campbell Live spy law poll that people are smart enough to see through National and give them bums rush this election.

  7. Colonial Viper 7

    As I said to McFlock when the 29% poll came out – this is just further proof that Labour is bouncing around a ~32%-33% true support level. You can expect some poll results dotted around there, some around 30% and some around 35%.

    What would really help with judging the Roy Morgan – knowing the % of undecideds. It is annoying that they don’t reveal that and it is a crucial figure.

    The prospect of a Government with 1/3 Green Ministers looks good eh?

    Looks like a lot of ABCs won’t even get a look into Cabinet because the seats will be taken by the Greens.

    • bad12 7.1

      i tend to agree with you on the size of the Labour core vote, we have to remember that as the Party’s to the right and beside National in the center have polled less to the point of non-existence on a regular basis it will be more likely National with the poster boy of the moment as Prime Minister who are judged to have ‘picked up’ most of that vote,

      Duck,dive and dodge has not worked for National over the GCSB and we can well imagine some serious head scratching going on amidst the denizens of the Beehives 9th floor as what seemed to them as a simple rejigging of Legislation to make the illegal legal as far as spying on it’s citizens goes has turned into the cluster-f**k of monumental proportions,

      It’s not as if that making of the illegal legal with a quick piece of Legislative or Regulatory change is anything new to this lot who’s silver spoons barely quiver when They are caught out reaching beyond the Law with their actions and intentions,

      If the GCSB legislation, as i believe it will, is to be the defining moment, the high tide mark for this particular abysmal government then we will see a far more critical mass media,(excepting the Herald and other fixated Jonolists), leading up to November 2014 only too willing to throw up the spying Legislation and uproar emanating over snapper quota as reasons to not vote for the incumbent shower only to willing to rain on the shrinking parade of freedom,

      i would suggest that the slippery slope of inevitable electoral defeat began for this government months ago and the dead cat has been given a number of bounces via the ‘rights’ willingness to manipulate certain ‘public images’ in an attempt to manipulate the wavering,

      The more ‘supportive’ polls of this government in the future will be a good read from here to the election as i believe that any slide in support in such ‘supportive organs’ will inevitably be magnified by the electorates actions on voting day…

    • Rogue Trooper 7.2

      if,…….there is a God soldier, if.

      • bad12 7.2.1

        LOLZ, i waver on that question, weekly i waver, but down at my basest level of human form i once took ‘a trip’ and truly saw…

        • Rogue Trooper 7.2.1.1

          Tales of My Landlord : 3rd Series 😉
          anyway, appears you have the inspiration.

    • McFlock 7.3

      And I think that assuming a constant level of support that is independent of political events means that any political activity is a waste of time.

      Alternatively, a sustained and somewhat desperate (towards the end) attack by garner and gower did cause a dip in the polls for Labour, although it failed to achieve its objective (a challenge against Shearer as a distraction from National’s fuckwittedness and as a nice winter horse race for the pundittierie and commentariat).

      Whether that dip is over is another matter – one poll result does not make a recovery, and the quicker ground is gained then the quicker it can be lost. I would be surprised if a 5 point gain was followed by another gain of any significance.

      • Colonial Viper 7.3.1

        My assumption of a true level of support around 32%-33% doesn’t say that the number won’t move around depending on what is happening in any given month. It just says that it will tend back to that level of support over time.

        Can that “true level of support” be shifted over the long term? Certainly, not denying that at all.

        • McFlock 7.3.1.1

          lol
          so the “true level of support” can shift both monthly and in the longer term.

          Sounds to me like estimating a “true level of support” based on multiple 2-3weekly poll results is just so much marsh gas.

  8. Disraeli Gladstone 8

    Using the Nate Silver / Anthony Wells approach to polling, I’m suggesting we’re probably seeing National at 45-46%, Labour 32-33% and Greens at 12-13%.

    So really, it’s all to play for, people. National and Labour+Green are in a dead heat.

    … we’re going to end up with Winston as Kingmaker again, aren’t we?

    • bad12 8.1

      Not necessarily Winston and NZFirst as the ‘kingmaker’ in the next Parliament, what may be the making or breaking of the next Labour lead Government could well be the Mana Party and Hone Harawira,

      Electoral support for the Maori party has all but collapsed and a 1/3 to a 1/2 of the Maori Party’s previous support crossing over with their votes to the Mana Party would see Mana with another MP in the 2015 Parliament off of it’s list entitlement,

      Mana’s Annette Sykes, should She stand again in the Waiariki electorate needs 1940 of the votes from the incumbent Maori Party MP who’s support base has all but evaporated to gain Mana a 3rd MP in the next Parliament,

      It’s interesting to see Labour Leader David Shearer expounding Neanderthalic first past the post politics with His speech after the Ikaroa-Rawhiti by-election that Labour will be going ‘hard out’ to win back all the Maori electorates at the 2014 election,

      The point being that Labour would do far better to in effect ‘concede’ the Te Tai Tokerau and Waiariki electorates to Mana as doing so would ensure the ‘Left’ 2 more seats in the next Parliament while Labour ‘winning’ both those electorate seats would see that Party making no numerical gains in MP numbers and ‘the Left’ as a Parliamentary Bloc with 2 less seats,

      It would take real ‘Leadership’ from within Labour to ‘see’ this and i doubt that the Party mired in the past of neanderthalic first past the post politics has that leadership capable of first ‘seeing’ the situation for what it is under MMP and second be willing to take the necessary steps to build that coalition of Party’s necessary to give ‘the left’ that out-right victory in 2014 that this country so desperately needs…

      • Watching 8.1.1

        Bad12, could you explain the logic behind your numbers.

        You are saying that Mana will take a percentage of the MP 1.5% to give them enough votes for two seats – this will be filled by 1 electorate & 1 list seat. Then you also say that Annette Sykes wins a second electorate seat & doesn’t this mean she takes up Mana’s second seat so that they now have 2 electorate & 0 list seat under their entitlement .

        If the above happens then doesn’t Mana now need to increase its list vote double what you suggest to get a List seat.

        • Lanthanide 8.1.1.1

          bad12 has made similarly incorrect mathematical claims in the past. I think he doesn’t understand how it works.

          • bad12 8.1.1.1.1

            L, Feel free to list these incorrect mathematical claims that i have made in the past…or…

            • Lanthanide 8.1.1.1.1.1

              Winston Peters, King Maker


              and again in

              Winston Peters, King Maker

              In those comment you suggest Mana will have 3 seats in parliament, from them winning Sykes’ seat and from gaining 0.2% of the party vote to 1.2% to gain another list seat. But as we explain, 1.2% party vote + 2 electorate seats = 2 seats, not 3.

            • Akldnut 8.1.1.1.1.2

              Ba12 “It’s interesting to see Labour Leader David Shearer expounding Neanderthalic first past the post politics with his speech after the Ikaroa-Rawhiti by-election that Labour will be going ‘hard out’ to win back all the Maori electorates at the 2014 election”

              Strange that you perceive this as Neanderthalic politics when Mana did exactly the same in Waitakere last election and the greens did this in all other seats notably Central Christchurch in 2008 elections.

              Pot…Kettle……

              Perhaps Mana should run a programe in Waiariki to re-educate voters on how to fill in their ballots and chase the 1000 odd that voted incorrectly. And with the decline in MP base support Mana would romp in or barring that Sykes could step aside and leave it for Labour.

              Swings both ways.

        • bad12 8.1.1.2

          Yep, happy to say i have the electorate V party list MP’s equation wrong in that comment, Mana would have to win something like 3% of the Party vote plus win both Waiariki and Te Tai Tokerau to gain 3 seats in the next Parliament,

          A hard ask but not impossible…

          • alwyn 8.1.1.2.1

            Sorry but that is still wrong.
            If they got 3% of the party vote they would get, almost certainly, 4 seats in Parliament, provided that they won a single electorate seat. They do not have to win two electorate seats as winning one qualifies them to have additional list seats even though they don’t get to the 5% threshold..
            In 2008 ACT got a total of 5 seats (1 electorate and 4 list) by getting 3.65% of the vote. That is the closest I found to 3% to illustrate the point. The exact cutoff for list seats depends on the exact number of wasted votes.

            • bad12 8.1.1.2.1.1

              alwyn, aaaah mathematical pain, i will definitely take your word for it, will try and hunt out the MMP calculator later, i think there is one on the Electoral Commissions website,

              But in the meantime, just for arguments sake,

              What % of the Party vote would the Mana Party need for 1 list MP if that Party won both the Te Tai Tokerau and Waiariki electorate seats in 2014???,

              Taking into account what TRP is saying that 1.3% of the Party vote would simply be cancelled out by the winning of the 2nd electorate seat???…

              • alwyn

                On the 2011 results the last seat went to National with a quotient of 9048 votes.
                Assuming the same pattern in the next election the Mana party would have to get just over 5 times that figure, or about 46,000 votes. That would be about 2.1% of the votes cast.
                That would give them 1 electorate seat and 2 list seats or 2 electorate seats and 1 list seat.
                No electorate seats? No list seats as they would be below the 5% threshold.
                There is an explanation of the Saint Lague formula and how it works at
                http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2011 in the Statistics section.
                Bloody awful thing to follow.

                • bad12

                  LOLZ, thanks for that, while you have been there i have been having my little neuron sack seriously twisted over at the Electoral Commissions calculator, which sounds about as easy to try and calculate a forward look at ‘might be’ results as where you have looked,

                  The most i could figure from that little piece of education was that on 2011 results Mana need another 6000 votes to be sure of a list seat along with Hone Harawira retaining Te Tai Tokerau…

                  • alwyn

                    I have tried it to. I thought your number was a bit high as my calculation says that a bit over 3 * 9048 should be enough.
                    I put in a Mana vote of 27,500 (about 3,300 more than they got) and that gives them a total of 2 seats. As one expects (see my comment about National getting the last seat above) National drops to 58.
                    That calculator is horrible, isn’t it. It took me 3 goes to get it right. The first time I had National vote at only one tenth, the second time I missed out the Maori party winning any electoral seats and the THIRD time I managed to get the numbers in properly.
                    It says you can change the numbers by using the back button but it doesn’t work. It just gives you a new blank sheet.

                  • alwyn

                    A final, very last word on this, just in case you see it.
                    I have done the numbers exactly and proved them on that calculator.
                    Assuming that every party except Mana gor the actual number of votes that they did in 2011 the critical number of votes for Mana to get a second seat would be worked out as follows.
                    The last persom to get in was the 59th National MP with a quotient of 1058636/117
                    Mana, to get a second seat, would have to get more than 3 times this number, which works out as 27,144.512
                    Thus at 27144 votes they get one 1 seat and National get 59.
                    At 27145 votes they get 2 seats and National drop to 58.
                    If you are really keen you can put the numbers into that calculator and check this.
                    Alternatively, if you have any sense you can take my word for it.
                    Since Mana actually got 24,168 votes they were 2977 votes short.

      • Te Reo Putake 8.1.2

        Bad, I don’t think wanting to win all the Maori seats is a reflection of FPP thinking. Electorate seats are just as important under MMP and I still get annoyed at the naivety of the left voters who wasted their electorate vote on a minor party, enabling the likes of Bennett and Kaye to win the seats. If you don’t think having a tory as your local MP is a problem, you are clearly not a beneficiary or part of the working poor needing assistance from the local electorate office.

        And I don’t see how your maths works; the left have the same number of seats whoever wins them. The only improvement on that is if Mana only win one seat and gain a second, overhang, seat by getting a party vote above 1.3% ( I think that’s the threshold?). If Sykes wins a second seat for Mana, that covers the overhang, so they still only have 2 MPs and the left total is unchanged.

        Having said that, I do stand to be corrected if I’ve misunderstood the overhang effect. It’s not an issue for the party I support, so I haven’t given it much thought.

        • Lanthanide 8.1.2.1

          An overhang is when a party wins more electorate seats than it’s party vote would enable them too, eg Maori Party has an overhang because they won 3 electorate seats, but their share of the party vote should only entitle them to 2.

          A party that wins 1 electorate and then has enough party vote for 1 additional list seat does not create an overhang.

          A party that wins 1 electorate but not enough party vote to support 1 seat (eg, United Future in 2014, although in 2011 I think they got enough party vote for 1 seat) would create an overhang.

          A party that wins enough party vote for 10 list seats, but only has 9 or fewer list candidates on their list, would create an underhang. For example the Bill & Ben party had only 2 list candidates, so had they won 3 seats worth (including 1 electorate to avoid the 5% threshold), they would have had an underhang by 1.

        • bad12 8.1.2.2

          OK put aside the list MP for the moment, i see what you are saying regarding having 2 electorate MP’s V the % of party vote gained and you might be right with your point there,

          However, i believe you are wrong when you consider the 2 seats Waiariki and Te Tai Tokerau against Labours % of the Party vote,

          Lets use the current Roy Morgan as our point of reference, should Labour gain 34% of the Party vote plus win the 2 electorates, Waiariki and Te Tai Tokerau, Labour will first have to count the electorate seats won and then add to it’s MP’s the number which takes its MP’s to 34% of the House,

          Should Mana win both those electorates, Te Tai Tonga and Waiariki, Labour will still end up with the same number of MP’s in the House as it would have if it,Labour, had won those 2 electorates, 34%,

          As Mana already hold Te Tai Tokerau this scenario would give the ‘left’ an extra seat in the House, that of Waiariki which neither Labour or Mana currently hold,

          This scenario is Labour win Waiariki +34% of party vote= 34% of seats, if Mana win= 2 seats+Labour with 34% of seats= i extra seat in left bloc…

          • Lanthanide 8.1.2.2.1

            You overcomplicate it.

            It’s as simple as: electorate seat won by Maori Party, who are “right leaning”, vs electorate seat won by Mana, who are on the left.

            Labour has nothing to do with it.

            • bad12 8.1.2.2.1.1

              Nope you over-simplify, the Maori Party and in particular Tariana Turia are center left leaning with the codicil that Turia despises the Labour Party which is the sole reason for that Party’s coalition with the present National Government,

              The fact that you are blind to the actual numbers is possibly a matter for you to take up with your optician or other professional,

              Labour should they win both the Te Tai Tokerau and Waiariki electoral seats and then find themselves with no gains in actual seat numbers in the House will have had everything to do with ‘it’,

              MMP is a matter of building coalitions, Labour as the perceived biggest player in any left bloc coalition should be focused on the building process not just as a matter of convenience after an election but constructively doing so during the electoral cycle between elections,

              If MMP has shown us one thing it is that smaller coalition partners are always first to be punished by the electorate for the perceived sins of supporting the major bloc of that coalition,

              Labour then need to be always looking for ways in which support for likely coalition partners can be bolstered…

        • bad12 8.1.2.3

          TRP, No No No, ”electoral seats are just as important under MMP”, No No No that is simply a hangover of thinking from FFP elections,

          The only time electoral seats are more important, in terms of forming a Government, than the % of Party vote is in the unlikely situation where Labour could win more electorate seats than it’s proportion of the Party Vote would have given them,

          S**t i lived in Bill from Dipton’s electorate for a couple of years and s did that while a beneficiary and it made no difference to me,

          If Labour are so concerned about the plight of the electorates where there is a Tory incumbent they only need a higly visible Labour Party office in that electorate with a direct line to a ‘buddy MP’s office’ at the Parliament, which could handle issues which only an MP could be said to be able to sort out,

          ”The left have the same number of seats no matter who wins them, No No No, more FFP thinking, consider this, Labour have a cup of tea with Hone and Annette Sykes in the the Waiariki electorate, Sykes wins, Labour would then have their 34% of MP’s plus 2 Mana Party MPs in the House,

          Should however Labour win the Waiariki electorate they will have exactly the same 34% of MP’s in the House but only 1 Mana Party vote in support in the House…

          • Te Reo Putake 8.1.2.3.1

            Yes yes yes, Bad. I gave the reason why electorate seats are important, but I guess you are “clearly not a beneficiary or part of the working poor needing assistance from the local electorate office.”

            And as for te mana, unless Hone holds the balance of power, they’re irrelevent. Hone’s hardly likely to vote down left legislation, is he? So his vote is effectively on board already.

            • bad12 8.1.2.3.1.1

              Yes TRP keep up with such arrogance and Labour will find itself right where it is now in terms of Governance,

              So you think that Labour will just throw Mana a bone as National does to the Maori Party and Mana will roll over for a tummy tickle do you,

              You and Labour are in for a big surprise…

              PS, and as far as Labour caring for the plight of beneficiaries, fucking save the crocodile tears, Labour from Douglas’s taxation of beneficiaries to the abysmal Clark’s decision to exclude beneficiaries from Working for Families to the Shearer beneficiary bashing speech have shown all beneficiaries that Labour couldn’t give a big fat one about them,

              That’s a pattern of beneficiary bashing as bad if not worse than the equally shitty record of National…

              • Te Reo Putake

                Yeah, and your attitude enables Paula Bennett and her Tory ilk. I’ll keep my ‘arrogance’ over your ignorance any day, Bad. Like it or not, life is better for beneficiaries under a left government generally and your electorate voting to assist the election of tory MP’s does not help them a jot.

                Hone knows this wider truth, which is why he will, if re-elected, support most of what the next Government does, even if he is not part of that Government.

                • bad12

                  LOLZ, TRP, you have convinced me of one thing at least, that being that my Party vote will be going to Mana in 2014 and my electorate vote to Russell Norman, thanks,

                  That’s an amazing little quibble you have put up there, ”life for a beneficiary is better under Labour than National”,

                  What a grand reason to vote for Labour, ”vote Labour a Party that doesn’t put the boot into beneficiaries as hard as what National does”,

                  The rest of your little rant is pretty much low brow stuff, do your knuckles scrape when you perambulate,

                  Everything i have said in this post has been to do with the Maori electorates none of which are likely to ever vote for the nonexistent National candidates, and the fact that you cannot bring yourself to concede that i am correct when i state that in 2014 should Labour win the Waiariki electorate ‘the left’ in the next Parliament will be down 1 vote is laughable but sad,

                  Now that’s what i call enabling a National Government…

        • QoT 8.1.2.4

          the naivety of the left voters

          Because they must be stupid, it’s not like they might be rejecting the anointed Labour candidate for good reasons of their own.

    • burt 8.2

      I don’t think Winston can be called the king maker. Any leader who relies on Winston to achieve power at any price could hardly be called a King !

      Perhaps we could call him the “sell out maker” – You can’t call somebody a leader when they require the support of such corrupt self serving people to “lead”. They are a sell out – not a leader.

      • bad12 8.2.1

        That’s about as pathetic a comment i would expect from the shrinking wing-nut brigade of commenters here at the Standard,

        Are you talking about the Winston who was pilloried in the Parliament and the media for having ‘taken’ a free fish dinner from the Veller brothers,

        Forgotten in the smooch fest tongue’n’groove tango surrounding the current Slippery little Shyster we have as Prime Minister is the small fact that immediately after His election He was more than happy to take a ‘free ride’ in a Veller brother’s helicopter from Hamilton to Auckland so anything you accuse Peters of has simply been magnified by the current incumbent in a ‘winner takes all’ thumbing of the nose at the electorate…

        • burt 8.2.1.1

          OK, so Winston isn’t (in your opinion) as bad as Key… Well it’s just awesome that being accountable under the law is in your world treated like a kid caught stealing biscuits – You can shout and point at someone else and say they did it too….

          God forbid we judge Peters according to the ethics and the standards we expect from MPs – wow just let him do what he wants because you think somebody else is worse….

          Grow up – most kids learn by the time they get to high school that pointing and shouting “they did it too” isn’t going to get them out of trouble – baby brain partisan hacks don’t seem to learn this lesson when they are in their self serving justification mode for their own team.

          • bad12 8.2.1.1.1

            Your latest little snivel of a comment is simply more of the wing-nut habit of putting words into a commenters mouth that they have neither uttered nor intended by the contents of a previous comment,

            Utter Bullshit in other words, if Winston Peters actions in accepting a free meal from the Veller brothers was as you wing-nuts put it corruption then your golden boy Slippery the Prime Minister has displayed as much if not more corruption and hypocrisy by at a later date accepting from the Veller brothers a free helicopter ride,

            Apply the same words in your last paragraph above to your own attitude…

  9. Aotearoean 9

    Rumour has it that Winnie the Poo has bought a new set of clothes!!1

  10. Core_Labour_Voter (Tory troll) 10

    Why do you guys think this poll is not accurate enough? I think the GCSB and Snapper quota issue has taken its toll and people are coming back in droves to Labour and Greens. We should all be publishing these poll results all over the place.

    • karol 10.1

      It does match John Campbell’s claim that Nat’s polling showed Key was taking a hit over the GCSB Bill and hence Key turning up on Campbell Live.

      • Akldnut 10.1.1

        Yeah I would feel a lot better if TV3 kept the issue alive (get inside voters heads) by plastering it over their news bulletins for the next week or so.

  11. Sanctuary 11

    Question – when was the last poll that showed Labour and the Greens both up at National’s expense?

    • karol 11.1

      July-Aug 2012

    • Bunji 11.2

      Both up? usually one or ‘tother.
      But for Roy Morgan: early April 2013, early March 2013…

      But this is a biggie. Mssive swing – probably a big outlier to the right to a small outlier to the left… that’s why it’s important to have lots of polls (that only Roy Morgan does), so you can see the trend.
      Interesting no press release from Roy Morgan – guess they’re a bit obsessed over Oz election at the mo.
      And obviously no breathless comment from our media. No Press Release = they didn’t hear about it…

      • karol 11.2.1

        March-April 2013 was a very slight rise by both Labour and Greens – Labour up 1.0; Greens up 0.5.

  12. Te Reo Putake 12

    New Roy Morgan’s out and its a doozy! Lab/Green 48, Nats 44.

    http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5113-new-zealand-voting-intention-august-2013-201308200137

    If a National Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows that a Labour/ Greens alliance would win.

    The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is virtually unchanged at 128 (down 0.5%) with 58% (down 0.5%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 30% (unchanged) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

    Gary Morgan says:

    “Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll contains good news for the Opposition Labour (34%, up 5%) and Greens (14%, up 4%) – now at their highest level of combined support in four months since early April 2013. The Greens have jumped to their highest level of support in a year since August 2012.

    “The huge swings in support come as the contentious GCSB (Government Communications Security Bureau) ‘Spying’ Bill is heavily debated in Parliament. The Bill, which will increase the Government’s powers of surveillance over all New Zealand citizens, has faced strong opposition in Parliament. Prime Minister John Key has insisted on the importance of passage of the bill in the fight against terrorism claiming there are people living in New Zealand who had been trained by Al-Qaeda.

    “Opposition to the bill is not just inside Parliament, with the Law Society saying there are ‘fundamental flaws in the GCSB Bill’ that minor adjustments insisted on by Independent MP Peter Dunne for his support do not alter.”

    • Colonial Viper 12.1

      New Roy Morgan’s out and its a doozy! Lab/Green 48, Nats 44.

      it’s a solid result, but reinforces a Labour true level of 32% or 33% +/- 3%.

  13. amirite 13

    I now expect the coordinated attack by the MSM on Shearer and his snapper in an attempt to hike up Nats’ ratings.

  14. tracey 14

    You can’t call somebody a leader when they require the support of such corrupt self serving people to “lead”. They are a sell out – not a leader.

    welll said burt… key is being propped up by banks isnt he?

  15. Grantoc 15

    There are polls and there are polls.

    Today’s Fairfax poll contradicts yesterday’s Morgan poll, showing National still in a commanding position and Labour still hovering in that zone just above 30%.

    Interestingly, the Greens in the Fairfax poll come in quite a bit lower too. Perhaps their voter support is quite volatile.

    So what to make of it all? Probably that nothing much has changed actually. National is still pretty dominant. Labour is not getting any traction. The Greens jump around a bit. NZ First may or may not be a player. This seems to be a pretty solid pattern looking back at all the polls over the last 18 mnts or so.

    • lprent 15.1

      So what to make of it all?

      That it is a poll by a different company and using a different methodology? A poll taken every two months or so has little credibility for looking at trends compared to one taken every two weeks.

      I notice you didn’t put in the delta’s from the previous poll by the same company. Nor did you state when this poll and the previous one from the same company were taken. Why is that?

      It is interesting reading what unthinking fools think about polls… Bit tedious though as they all seem to make the same moronic mistakes.

      • Grantoc 15.1.1

        Imprent

        I don’t agree that because a poll is taken only every 2 months compared with a poll taken every two weeks that it lacks credibility with regards to picking up trends. If it was a one off poll, you could argue that, but like other regular pollsters, the Fairfax poll has been around for a long time.

        Besides what actually is important is methodological rigour; especially around question design, statistical analysis etc. I’m not in a position to say whether the Morgan poll is superior in this regard than the Fairfax poll, or the other way around.

        Also important for getting a real handle on the trends is to combine the results from all relevant polls and see what that says about patterns.

        • lprent 15.1.1.1

          Have a *close* look at the variability of the Roy Morgan polls every two weeks. Then consider that every other poll has exactly the same kinds of statistical variability. RM literally bounces around by ~ +/- 4% from a mean for the two main parties.

          So in the last poll there was 7% decrease in National’s support compared to a similar increase in the previous poll. Still roughly within the statistical but on the extremes of it. If you look over a series of 4 for a two month period, then lo and behold – you can actually see the overall trend without the statistical variability screwing it up.

          But a poll that comes out every two months has exactly the same level of variability – but you can’t really see it…

          Remember that what the polling companies are sampling isn’t really the overall voting population. It is a subset that represents the population that they are sampling from that is meant to represent the overall population. Factors like them calling people on phones makes a hell of a different. Incidentally that is why you can’t rely on the actual percentages – because they don’t reflect the population that will actually vote.

          Trends and rough percentages are all that you can rely upon. Methodology on a single question that amounts to “If the election was held today, which party would you vote for” is largely irrelevant (because that is what they are reporting on). But making sure that the population you are sampling in is consistent. The frequency you take the polls in also helps as it is part of the methodology – it helps to even out the inconsistencies in method and to highlight the natural variability.

          If you look at the news organisations polls you can see a remarkable consistency. They look to be designed to have enough change to make a good news story each time…

          Now consider that some dork (yourself for instance) will look at a single point reflecting one of those extremes every two months and start the usual pontification about “what it all means”. If you are really silly you’ll compare the values between two different polling companies for extra meaningless waffle.

          combine the results from all relevant polls

          Yeah right. There are 4 polls that happen about every 2 months. Then there is one poll that happens every 2 weeks.

          What do you think weights the combined poll results the most? The 4 polls from a single companies sampling method or the 4 polls from from 4 separate companies sampling methods.

          Bearing in mind the RM has been consistently closest to the actual results over the last 3 elections, and without having the abrupt changes in angle that the others show at election time as their previously undisclosed undecided population “makes up their mind” – which would you look at?.

          If the other polls weren’t all pulling National upwards and the minor parties downwards mid-term (which is what they do), then a composite would be useful. But you really need a *lot* more polls and competitive polling companies to make it viable. The polls in the US or even aussie tend to be more accurate as composite polls simply because there are polls coming out every few days. Here our population of polls is so low that a single shyster company can drag them anywhere.

          As I said before – people who haven’t thought about polls say the same daft things over and over again without *thinking*

          • Grantoc 15.1.1.1.1

            All very interesting Iprent. But your elaborate defence of the validity of one poll over the rest doesn’t stack up.

            Have you heard of Nate Silver? He is the statistician, who amongst other things precisely predicted the outcome of the last US presidential election – calling each state accurately. He blogs for the New York Times.

            How did he do this? By analysing at all of the polling data from every available poll in each State and drawing conclusions that led to his ability to make accurate predictions.

            Interetsingly he was attacked by the Republicans because, they, like you, wanted desperately to believe that their ‘pet’ polls were more accurate and better than all others.

            Check him out Iprent. he has more credibility as far as I’m concerned on polling and how they work and what they mean than you do.

  16. Lol, lets speak about trends.

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  • Bite-sized learning
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    2 weeks ago
  • “Not The Labour Party We Once Knew.”
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    2 weeks ago
  • Marxist versus liberal methodology on transgender ideology/identity politics
    While much of the NZ left has transitioned to postmodern and identity politics in relation to transgender ideology, there are some very good articles about that deploy Marxist methodology in relation to this subject.  The one below is from the British marxist group Counterfire and appeared on their site here ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Book review: The Farm by Joanne Ramos
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  • Loosening the purse strings
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    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Climate Change: How to get there
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    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • anti-vaxxers in a measles epidemic: so many ways to be untruthful
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    SciBlogsBy Alison Campbell
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  • Is Youth Vaping a Problem in New Zealand?
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  • In pursuit of “Freedom and Democracy”: Forever Wars in “America’s backyard”.
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    exhALANtBy exhalantblog
    2 weeks ago
  • November ’19 – NZ blogs sitemeter ranking
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  • Whodunnit? Finding the mystery 1080 testing lab
    1080 is used to control pests in NZ. Its use is contested by a noisy few. A new report claims high levels of 1080 in rats washed up on a beach. Flora and Fauna of Aotearoa (F&F) won’t name the laboratory that did their testing. It has sparked a hunt ...
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  • Authoritarian Friends, Democratic Enemies.
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    2 weeks ago

  • NZ to help fund fight against measles in the Pacific region
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    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 hours ago
  • New Zealand remembers Sir Peter Snell
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    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 hours ago
  • PM congratulates Boris Johnson on election victory
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    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    18 hours ago
  • Building a platform for the future of rail
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    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    18 hours ago
  • Prime Minister statement Whakaari White Island recovery operation
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    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    19 hours ago
  • New Zealand medical specialists to provide further support to Samoa
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    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    22 hours ago
  • Discounted electric-bikes offered to public sector workers
    Discounted electric bikes will be offered up to public sector staff across the country as part of the Government’s work to reduce transport emissions and support healthier transport options.  Associate Minister of Transport Julie Anne Genter officially launched the new initiative at Wellington Hospital today.  “The Government has negotiated bulk-purchase ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    23 hours ago
  • Australia and New Zealand confirm joint bid for FIFA Women’s World Cup
    The Australian and New Zealand Governments today launch an historic joint bid to bring the FIFA Women’s World Cup to the Southern Hemisphere for the first time. Australian Minister for Youth and Sport, Richard Colbeck and New Zealand Minister for Sport and Recreation Grant Robertson will announce the bold campaign, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    24 hours ago
  • Blackwater gold mine gets PGF boost
    The Provincial Growth Fund (PGF) has approved a $15 million loan to help re-establish a gold mining operation at Blackwater Gold Mine, near Reefton, Rural Communities Minister and local MP Damien O’Connor announced at an event on the West Coast today. “This is great news for the Coast that could ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Papakāinga model inspires whānau well-being
    Papakāinga model inspires whānau well-being A housing project by Kohupātiki whānau in Hastings is an outstanding example of a Māori-led housing initiative that can reduce financial pressure and reconnect whānau to their whakapapa says the Minister for Māori Development Hon Nanaia Mahuta.  Minister Mahuta officially opened the Aroha Te Rangi ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Government provides more funding for major community wetland restoration project
    Restoration efforts for a significant wetland in the Hawke’s Bay are getting more support announced Associate Minister for the Environment Eugenie Sage. “Wetlands are vital to healthy landscapes and ecosystems. They function as nature’s ‘kidneys’, filtering and protecting water quality, acting as nature’s sponges after rain and are home to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Housing First to help Nelson Tasman homeless
    Nelson has today seen the launch of Housing First Nelson Tasman. Today’s launch marks the expansion of the Government’s homelessness programme, Housing First, to the top of the South Island. “Housing First is a proven programme that puts people who are experiencing homelessness and multiple, high and complex needs into ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • New funding to support Environment Centres working for sustainable local solutions
    New Government funding announced today will help communities make a difference in tackling environmental issues Associate Minister for the Environment Eugenie Sage announced in Hawkes Bay today. The Ministry for the Environment’s Community Environment Fund is dedicating $243,101 to growing the capacity and capability of the Environment Hubs Aotearoa’s (EHA) ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Government takes bite out of loan sharks
    The days of vulnerable consumers falling victim to loan sharks, truck shops and other predatory lenders are numbered, following the Credit Contracts Legislation Amendment Bill passing its third reading tonight. “Too many Kiwis are being given loans that are unaffordable and unsuitable, trapping them in debt and leaving their families ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • New Zealand safer as Terrorism Suppression (Control Orders Bill) becomes law
    A Bill that prevents terrorism and supports the de-radicalisation of New Zealanders returning from overseas has passed its third reading, Justice Minister Andrew Little says. The Terrorism Suppression (Control Orders) Bill is a carefully targeted response to manage the risk posed by a small number of New Zealanders who have ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Foreign Minister and Pacific Peoples Minister to visit Samoa
    Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters and Minister for Pacific Peoples Aupito William Sio will travel to Samoa on Friday, where New Zealand medical teams are helping Samoa respond to an outbreak of measles. “New Zealand has been working closely with the Government of Samoa and offering our assistance from the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • New Pastoral Care Code will support tertiary students in 2020
    The Government has changed the law to improve student safety and welfare in university halls of residence and other student accommodation. The Education (Pastoral Care) Amendment Bill passed its third reading this afternoon and details of an interim Code of Practice setting out the Government’s expectations of tertiary providers have also been released. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • New infrastructure funding tool to build housing developments faster
    A new tool to help councils fund and finance infrastructure could mean some housing developments happen a decade earlier than currently planned, Urban Development Minister Phil Twyford said today. “This new tool, developed by the Government in partnership with industry and high-growth councils, will allow councils to access private debt ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Vision to unite the primary sector launched today
    Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor has welcomed the release of a bold new vision for the country’s vital food and fibre sector. “I’m delighted that New Zealand’s major farmer and grower organisations are today supporting the Primary Sector Council’s vision – Fit for a Better World,” he said. “The international consumers ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • NZ congratulates PNG and Autonomous Bougainville Government on referendum
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has congratulated the Government of Papua New Guinea and the Autonomous Bougainville Government for completing a well-conducted referendum on the future political status of Bougainville. “New Zealand supported the referendum process by providing technical advice through the New Zealand Electoral Commission and leading a Regional Police ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Next steps for Upper North Island logistics
    In light of Cabinet’s position that freight operations on prime land in downtown Auckland are no longer viable, the Government will now embark on a short work programme to enable decision-making in the first half of next year, Associate Transport Minister Shane Jones says. Minister Jones is today releasing the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Surgical mesh restorative justice report received
    Associate Health Minister Julie Anne Genter has received the report back from a surgical mesh restorative justice process undertaken by Victoria University. The process heard stories, either in person or online submission, from more than 600 people affected by surgical mesh. “The report made for heart-breaking and confronting reading,” says ...
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    2 days ago
  • The Water Services Regulator Bill – Taumata Arowai a milestone for drinking water safety
    The Water Services Regulator Bill – Taumata Arowai , introduced to Parliament today, is a milestone for drinking water safety in New Zealand and will help improve environmental outcomes for urban waterways, rivers and lakes.  “This is a breakthrough for New Zealanders in terms of providing safe drinking water throughout ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Speech to new direction for criminal justice reform announcement
    Kia ora koutouE ngā mana, e ngā reo, e ngā matā wakaTēnā koutou katoaHaere ngā, moe maiKoutou ma ngā Rangatira Ko Anaru ahauKo au te Minita mo ngā TureHe Honore tino nui kei roto I ahau No reira tena koutou katoa Today, we are releasing two reports that are the ...
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    2 days ago
  • New direction for criminal justice reform
    The Government is looking to turn around the long-term challenges of criminal justice by taking a new approach to break the cycle of offending to ensure there are fewer victims of crime. Justice Minister Andrew Little released two reports today, Turuki! Turuki! from Te Uepū Hāpai I te Ora, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • New law sets up $300m Venture Capital Fund
    New Zealand firms expanding beyond the start-up phase are set for more support after today’s passage of the Venture Capital Fund Bill, Associate Finance Minister David Parker said. The Bill, which establishes a $300 million Venture Capital Fund, puts in place a key initiative of the Wellbeing Budget’s economic package. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • New Zealand’s National Statement to COP25
    E ngā mana, e ngā reo, e ngā iwi, e ngā rau rangatira mā. Tēnā koutou, tēnā koutou, tēnā koutou katoa. Señora Presidenta, Excellencies, Delegates. International action A common thread that runs through the Paris Agreement is the commitment we have made to each other to do what we can to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • $12 billion in extra infrastructure investment
    The Government is lifting capital investment to the highest level in more than 20 years as it takes the next step to future-proof New Zealand. Finance Minister Grant Robertson has announced $12 billion of new investment, with $8 billion for specific capital projects and $4 billion to be added to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Strong economy, careful spending gives $12bn of surpluses
    The Government is forecast to run $12 billion worth of surpluses across the four years to 2023/24 as the economy continues to grow. The surpluses will help fund day-to-day capital requirements each year. These include fixing leaky hospitals, building new classrooms to cover population growth and take pressure off class ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Priorities for 2020 Wellbeing Budget outlined
    Budget 2020 will continue the Coalition Government’s focus on tackling the long-term challenges facing New Zealand while also investing to future-proof the economy. When the Government took office in 2017 it was left with crumbling infrastructure, severe underinvestment in public services, degraded rivers and lakes, a housing crisis and rising ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Minister welcomes data-rich coastline mapping tool
    The Minister responsible for the Marine and Coastal Area (Takutai Moana) Act 2011 (te Takutai Moana Act 2011), Andrew Little has welcomed the launch of an online geospatial tool that provides data-rich, dynamic coastline maps that will significantly boost research and evidence-gathering under the Act. Te Kete Kōrero a Te ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Chief Victims Advisor reappointed for a further two years
    The Chief Victims Advisor to Government Dr Kim McGregor, QSO, has been reappointed in her role for a further two years. Dr McGregor has held the role since it was established in November 2015. She provides independent advice to government on how to improve the criminal justice system for victims. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • New Zealand tsunami monitoring and detection system to be established
    Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters and Civil Defence Minister Peeni Henare have today announced the deployment of a network of DART (Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami) buoys. “New Zealand and the Pacific region are particularly vulnerable to natural disasters. It is vital we have adequate warning systems in place,” ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • DART Buoys Announcement
    DART Buoys Announcement Aotea Wharf, 9.30am 11 December 2019   Acknowledgements Acknowledgements to Minister for Civil Defence Hon Peeni Henare also here today. White Island It is with regret that this event shadows the tragic natural disaster two days ago. The volcanic eruptions on White Island have claimed 5 lives, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Final steps for racing industry reform
    Racing Minister Winston Peters has welcomed the first reading of the Racing Industry Bill in parliament today. This is the second of two Bills that have been introduced this year to revitalise New Zealand’s racing industry. “Our domestic racing industry has been in serious decline.  The Government is committed to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Funding to promote New Zealand Sign Language initiatives
    Minister for Disability Issues, Carmel Sepuloni, is pleased to announce that $291,321 is to be awarded to national and local community initiatives to maintain and promote the use of New Zealand Sign Language (NZSL). “New Zealand is one of the few countries  in the world where Sign Language is an ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • How New Zealand defines and recognises veterans
    Minister for Veterans Ron Mark has announced today the Coalition Government’s initial response to work completed by the independent statutory body, the Veterans’ Advisory Board. “When Professor Ron Paterson completed his review of the Veterans’ Support Act in 2018, he made a number of recommendations, including one which I referred ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Government to fund lion’s share of Ohakea water scheme
    The Government will fund the bulk of the cost of a rural water supply for the Ohakea community affected by PFAS contamination, Environment Minister David Parker announced today at a meeting of local residents. This new water scheme will provide a reliable and clean source of drinking water to the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Prime Minister statement on White Island eruption
    I have had the opportunity to be briefed on the details of the volcanic eruption of Whakaari/White Island, off the coast of Whakatane in the Bay of Plenty.  The eruption happened at 2.11pm today.  It continues to be an evolving situation.  We know that there were a number of tourists ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Govt funds $100k for weather-hit communities
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Minister of Civil Defence Peeni Henare have today confirmed initial Government support of $100,000 for communities affected by the severe weather that swept across the South Island and lower North Island over the weekend. The contribution will be made to Mayoral relief funds across the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago