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Roy Morgan – easy win for Labour/Greens?

Written By: - Date published: 6:54 pm, October 17th, 2013 - 104 comments
Categories: election 2014, greens, Judith Collins, labour, uncategorized - Tags:

The latest Roy Morgan poll has Labour 37%, Green 12.5%, and National down to 41.5%. As Roy Morgan says, this is the closest Labour has been since 2008.  Morgan’s comment:

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that a Labour/ Greens alliance would win easily.

There are some other interesting features in the poll. National’s numbers have gone from 51 to 41.5 in a little over two months. They’re tanking, and that is before the latest news hits about their reliance on the indicted John Banks. Roy Morgan numbers do bounce around a bit, but the trend lines are steadily converging. The Government confidence rating is down 5.5% with the right direction  number dropping 4%.

According to Morgan:

“New Labour Party Leader David Cunliffe has re-invigorated the main Opposition Labour Party (37%, unchanged) who are now just 4.5% behind National – the closest Labour has been for five years since October 2008 when Labour was still in Government under former Prime Minister Helen Clark.”

The Conservatives have dropped from 2% to 0.5% – no help there. Collins for Leader anyone?

The report series is graphed here:

5243-nzvote-large

 

104 comments on “Roy Morgan – easy win for Labour/Greens? ”

  1. McFlock 1

    I’m wondering if they’ll just ditch ACT’s shenanigans and run a conservative in epsom this time

    • Lanthanide 1.1

      Very tricky prospect, since Act are socially liberal. Goldsmith was only ~2k votes away from winning at the last election. Surely that was largely buoyed by lefties, but I think a Conservative standing in Epsom would lose to National.

      • felix 1.1.1

        Epsom doesn’t vote ACT because of anything ACT are or pretend to be, socially or otherwise. It’s far from a hotbed of social liberalism.

        • Lanthanide 1.1.1.1

          But I’d think the people that vote National or Act are probably more socially liberal than those that vote conservative.

          My point was really that even with the cuppa tea, Goldsmith wasn’t that far off winning.

          • felix 1.1.1.1.1

            No-one in Epsom votes for ACT. They vote ACT for National. It’s a National seat.

            Your point about Goldsmith is exactly what I’m saying, there’s nothing “socially liberal” about him.

          • Murray Olsen 1.1.1.1.2

            I wouldn’t be sure at all about liberal people in Epsom. I was shocked when I started university to get to know a St Cuthbert’s girl who had never eaten kumara because her mother thought it was Maori food. Worse, none of her friends had ever eaten it either.

        • RJL 1.1.1.2

          You are right, that Epsom does not vote ACT because of ACT. Epsom votes ACT because of the potential boost to National.

          However, while Epsom certain is capable of swallowing dead rats like Banks, it is not a given that the Epsom electorate would likewise lie down with the likes of Colin Craig. It’s about what the electorate tells itself in the wee small hours of the night…at least Epsom can pretend to itself that (elements of) ACT are tolerable.

      • Act *flirted* with being socially liberal from time to time. I’m not sure you can really call them that given their recent (ie. last two terms) record.

        • Lanthanide 1.1.2.1

          Act on campus certainly are, though.

          • TheContrarian 1.1.2.1.1

            ACT was meant to be socially liberal but the core has been ripped out from the ACT’s social policy. Hell even Brash advocated loosening drug laws but you would never get that from Banks.

          • Colonial Viper 1.1.2.1.2

            Act on campus certainly are, though.

            When was the last time someone from ACT on Campus actually made it into the ACT caucus?

            • Lanthanide 1.1.2.1.2.1

              Act on campus vote for Act, which get people from the Act party list into parliament.

              • McFlock

                AoC are probably low double figures votes-wise.
                What they do, however, is publicly campaign for old, white males of questionable competence, and therefore make ACT look less… old.

                But then having supported known social liberal John Banks, I’m not sure how well they think these things through.

                • Lanthanide

                  Actual AoC members votes may be in the double-figures. But they will pull in a few hundred more from like-minded university students. Unfortunately there are some.

                  • McFlock

                    maybe, at a larger university.

                    But the point remains that AoC do not determine act social policy – as far as I could see they were self-important toryboys who thought sycophancy was a political career path. So they are all to eager to swallow a dead turd and actively campaign for banks and brash, FFS.

                    If AoC are socially liberal, and AoC gather significant levels of votes for ACT, and AoC acually put those two points together, then as CV says there would be visible ramifications of that in who was placed where on the list, and also in terms of social policy.

                    The last social liberal I can recall on act caucus was Heather Roy.

                • Rogue Trooper

                  Reminded me of this Cur ; winner.

      • Craig 1.1.3

        Epsom is an urban liberal seat- look at Rodney Hide’s initial victory over Nat sock con Richard Worth, and what happened when former avowed sock con Banks stood for it as his replacement in 2011. Granted, Banks might have secured some credit for supporting marriage equality, but at the moment, given Paul Goldsmith’s relative liberalism, I think that if ACT loses the seat, it may revert back to National. The Cons would get slaughtered in such a seat.

    • felix 1.2

      They will if they have any nous left at all. Which is far from certain.

  2. pollywog 2

    DC FTW!!!

    • Colonial Viper 2.1

      Yep. Like many of us have been saying for what felt like fucking years.

      • weka 2.1.1

        and thank god you did keep saying it 🙂

      • The Al1en 2.1.2

        Give it another six months and it’ll come right, oh no wait on, that was that other guy. How times change.
        Two 37% polls on the trot, the highest since HC, and only a 2.5% steal off the nats to be level pegging in the two party stakes. Much more like it, though not much humble pie being wolfed down, well, not in public anyway. No matter. 😉

        • Colonial Viper 2.1.2.1

          McFlock reckoned the ‘slightly rising’ trend would have hit here under the other guy as well. Possibly before the sun went dark.

          • The Al1en 2.1.2.1.1

            Maybe, just before he checks a winning lotto ticket, lying in bed next to a supermodel in his pjs made from unicorn farts.

            Good job some political commentators know their arses from their genuine contenders.

            Edit.
            Though we shouldn’t be too hard on McFlock, after all, Shearer’s magnetic personality, competent performance and winning smile made his charm hard to resist.

            • Colonial Viper 2.1.2.1.1.1

              Yes, congratulations on that 🙂

              • The Al1en

                Yeah, and to all fellow realists.

                I’m growing my arms so I can pat myself on the back come next election when, fingers crossed, DC storms the debates cementing the Lab/Green landslide.

                • Colonial Viper

                  DC storms the debates cementing the Lab/Green landslide.

                  Given that the sir name “Cunliffe” suggests a steep slope with a cleft or crevasse, a landslide seems a possibility. Although, let’s not tempt fate 😈

          • McFlock 2.1.2.1.2

            let’s see- a 3 point boost following outstanding publicity from the leadership contest, then no change. You note the headline is strictly due to Green recovery.

            Don’t let reality get in the way of a good gloat, though.

  3. Ant 3

    Hopefully this can be a lesson that the party members know what the party needs, more so than media commentators.

  4. Red Rosa 4

    No win against National is an easy win. Len Brown can tell you that. They have all the advantages of money and power, and can fight like rats in traps when cornered. Copies of The Hollow Men should be dusted off and studied for likely strategies in the coming months.

    • Saarbo 4.1

      Yes, National will react. With Cunliffe at the helm Labour is going to get stronger as we progress through 2014, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Key announce a snap election, as early as April.

      • Yeah it’s looking clearer that unless they can manufacture or find a scandal, time isn’t going to be the government’s friend.

      • Sosoo 4.1.2

        Are you sure it will be Key? He’s had a pretty easy run for nearly six years, and I would not be completely surprised if he decides during Xmas with family that it’s time to call it a day.

        I’ve thought that Key was getting a bit pissed off with the job earlier this year, and his government is fast disintegrating. He’s lost two ministers and I would not be surprised to see either Smith or Parata forced to resign. The former has obviously done himself no favours over the dam, and the latter is obviously and luminously incompetent. Someone said the other day that it is starting to look like the last days of the Shipley government, and I think they are right about that.

        Why stay on to get smacked around by Cunliffe and company, who look like a different team since the leadership change? Why not plead family issues and head into retirement with your reputation fairly intact as a “good bloke”?

        • tc 4.1.2.1

          +1

          Key will not like a real fight, he’s a fair weather player and nasty when brought to heel by the media which is virtually never.

          Depends on those hollowmen agreements as to whether he’ll take it to the polls IMO what we get told is another matter.

  5. Calltoaccount 5

    Nice to see the G to Lab slide has stopped, but the Nits seem to have plugged their leak too. Hmmm.

  6. MrSmith 6

    More reinforcement of Cunliffe, great news for Labour and the Greens, all the while Key keeps cracking jokes but hardly anyones laughing now.

    • Rogue Trooper 6.1

      have only ever laughed at him.

    • North 6.2

      That is the perfect analysis.

      People generally not laughing anymore.

      Even the likes of BM and Chris73 notice the mood change.

      That’s why they’re behaving like they are right now. Jesus, imagine when Sorylands gets back !

      Missing that “Sixty-Two-Percent” rave Chris73 was fond of spitting out.

  7. weka 7

    For those of us living in an MMP world 😉 here’s how the other parties factor in –

    Party name Party Votes won Party seat entitlement No. of electorate seats won No. of list MPs Total MPs % of MPs
    ACT New Zealand 0.00% 0 1 0 1 * 0.81%
    Green Party 12.50% 15 0 15 15 12.20%
    Labour Party 37.00% 45 0 45 45 36.59%
    Mana 0.50% 1 1 0 1 0.81%
    Māori Party 1.50% 2 3 0 3 * 2.44%
    National Party 41.50% 51 0 51 51 41.46%
    New Zealand First Party 5.00% 6 0 6 6 4.88%
    United Future 0.00% 0 1 0 1 * 0.81%
    Totals 98.00% 120 6 117 123 100.00%

    http://www.elections.org.nz/voting-system/mmp-voting-system/mmp-seat-allocation-calculator?asPercentage=1&partyName_0=ACT+New+Zealand&partyVote_0=0&electorateSeats_0=1&partyName_1=Alliance&partyVote_1=0&electorateSeats_1=0&partyName_2=Aotearoa+Legalise+Cannabis+Party&partyVote_2=0&electorateSeats_2=0&partyName_3=Conservative+Party&partyVote_3=0.5&electorateSeats_3=0&partyName_4=Democrats+for+Social+Credit&partyVote_4=0&electorateSeats_4=0&partyName_5=Green+Party&partyVote_5=12.5&electorateSeats_5=0&partyName_6=Labour+Party&partyVote_6=37&electorateSeats_6=0&partyName_7=Libertarianz&partyVote_7=0&electorateSeats_7=0&partyName_8=Mana&partyVote_8=0.5&electorateSeats_8=1&partyName_9=M%C4%81ori+Party&partyVote_9=1.5&electorateSeats_9=3&partyName_10=National+Party&partyVote_10=41.5&electorateSeats_10=0&partyName_11=New+Zealand+First+Party&partyVote_11=5&electorateSeats_11=0&partyName_12=United+Future&partyVote_12=0&electorateSeats_12=1&partyName_opt_0=Other+Party&partyVote_opt_0=1&electorateSeats_opt_0=0&partyName_opt_1=Other+Party&partyVote_opt_1=0&electorateSeats_opt_1=0&partyName_opt_2=Other+Party&partyVote_opt_2=0&electorateSeats_opt_2=0&partyCount=13&optPartyCount=3&action=Calculate+parliamentary+seats

  8. Tiger Mountain 8

    They don’t like it up ’em Captain Mannering

  9. gobsmacked 9

    Acknowledging the usual caveats (margins of error, bounces, etc), it does seem like a significant change has happened.

    National had a successful Plan A, from 2006 to 2011 – in short, it was “nice Mr Key”. They did this remarkably well, with good PR and a tactically astute (short-term) leader.

    Plan A ended just before the election, when Key decided John Banks and police raids would help him with swing voters, and unsurprisingly, it didn’t. They’ve looked vulnerable ever since.

    However, Labour decided post-election that it was unsporting to be a smart, strong opposition, so they kindly gave Key an extra 20 months of glide time. We waited – and wept – and eventually the Labour caucus woke up. Even after Cunliffe took over, the unhappy ones have kept quiet, and hey presto! – no more negative headlines, discipline improves, and voters like it.

    National’s problem is that Plan B from the Right Wing playbook is the opposite of “Nice Mr Key”. They can scare and chuck dirt and push buttons and that may deliver a “sugar high”, but … it also tarnishes their greatest asset.

    Their best option is to send Slater to the South Pole (with no internet access), keep smiling, and deliver some targeted lollies in election year. But I’m guessing they’ll take the low road instead. So it’ll get nasty.

    Memo to opposition: Don’t play their game, don’t get sucked in, and you’ll win.

    • North 9.1

      Makes good reading Gobsmacked. Thanks.

    • tc 9.2

      Yup, take the high road as it’s less traffic so you can plot your own course.

      Plan B is a losing plan for sure, Key behaves like steptoe/gecko/Scrooge/blankfien rolled into one without the smooth delivery expected of a merchant artiste.

      It’s all they’ve got with their charter schools, nat stds, asset sales etc all tanking as expected and the enfant terrible blubbing away with many hatchets he wants to bury anyway he can.

  10. jaymam 10

    Lab plus NZ1 are higher than Nats.
    So, Prime Minster David Cunliffe and Deputy Winston Peters. Greens not needed! 🙂

  11. Rogue Trooper 11

    a further inter-lewd
    -“You can while away our hours you can talk in tongues
    Throw your promises [maybe] until kingdom come
    Cast your bread upon the waters see what it may bring
    …Desperate men do desperate things.

    “Come on talk to me [maybe] talk big and be brave
    It’s not your only reputation that you’re trying to save
    [We’ve] had you under observation you’re into various pain
    And desperate men do desperate things.

    […] (thanks joe90)

    Let it out [maybe] stir it up and mix it in
    Two parts religion three parts sin
    It’s the truth or consequences because the new king reigns
    Still, desperate men do desperate things”.

    -Jimmy Lafave.
    [La Zona Rosa]

  12. Philgwellington Wellington 12

    Can’t see an early election call from this poll. More likely that JK might cut and run if it gets too hard. Will JK make it to the next general election? Will he jump or get the knife? How many more scandals can JK take?

    e?

  13. North 13

    Arrogant prick would be prepared to handle heaps more. Neat thing is “we” won’t.

  14. red blooded 14

    Jayman, I would be really unhappy if Lab betrayed the Greens again and went withNZ First. Yes, I know there is competition for the Left(ish) vote, but the Greens have kept the flag flying and held the govt to account for the last couple of years. They’ve also been willing to sign up to policy like the bulk purchase of power by the state and housing policy. They helped Labour to stay afloat over the last couple of years. He’ll, they’ve served their time and have supported Labour both in government and in opposition. NZ First betrayed Labour when they signed up with Bolger, then tarnished the Clarke government with the donations issues. I would very quickly lose respect for Cunliffe and his team if Winnie was treated with more respect than the Greens.

    • Colonial Viper 14.1

      red blooded. All good points, but that is sympathy you are raising, not strategy, and sympathy falls well short in this arena, IMO. In terms of strategy:

      The Greens will definitely want to come to the table with a strong number of MPs. At least twice the number Winston can raise would be symbolic. Meteria and Russel need to shore up their personal relationships with the Labour leadership. The Green caucus need to deepen connections with their Labour Party colleagues. Ordinary Green party members have to set expectations in the public arena that the quality and stability of the Green caucus is a far greater asset to a Labour led government than anything Winston can put together; that is a meme which needs to be pushed far and wide.

      Meteria and Russel have to make the point to Cunliffe that if needed, both of them can help Labour lead a government through 4 rough, tough terms.

      And, who really knows if Winston has more than one more term left in him, and why would a new government with a new leader want to take that risk.

      (No charge).

      • weka 14.1.1

        “At least twice the number Winston can raise would be symbolic.”

        At today’s count they’re already past that. Maybe they should go for 3x the number 😈

    • richard 14.2

      I think that for the long term future of the Greens they should keep away from a coalition deal with labour. Both major parties are carnivorous beasts when it comes to coalition partners and the greens could well have to suffer 3 years of getting the blame for any unpopular decision the government makes. Witness NZF and The Alliance.

  15. Ron 15

    What absolutely marvellous news and will be a great lift to DC at his first conference as leader.
    Would not miss this conference for anything.
    Anyone else going downto shaky city

  16. Ad 16

    I predict Labour will overtake National and is steady afterwards on early 40s.

    On that, I predict Labour does not form a full coalition with the Greens, and instead picks and chooses supporters issue by issue.

    • Saarbo 16.1

      It will be interesting if this happens, some National voters Ive spoken too would swing to Labour but have a fear of the Greens economic policies (their view, not mine), so if Labour climb above National we could see another step up in their support. Meanwhile National will be using Labour’s coalition with the Greens as a fear tactic that Labour are extreme Left, this tactic seems to work.

      Personally I would like to see the Greens in a coalition government with Labour, they do great work…particularly Metiria Turei, she’s outstanding…and Russel Norman is pretty good as well (IMHO).

      • Pascal's bookie 16.1.1

        Meanwhile National will be using Labour’s coalition with the Greens as a fear tactic that Labour are extreme Left, this tactic seems to work.

        Ahem. If you scroll up you will see a graph of how well it’s been working. You could even hunt down Key’s “devilbeast” comment as a marker for their evil greens will eat your souls strategy. There is no sign whatsoever that it is working, as far as I can see.

      • Gareth 16.1.2

        The swing doesn’t just go to Labour, it works the other way too. I know one National voter who is dead set on tossing this current government out but can’t bring himself to vote for the traditional enemy, so he’s said he’s voting Green. He’s an exporter and has been approving of what Norman’s been saying about protecting the export sector.

    • Pete 16.2

      I think the asset sales referendum will help in that regard. I expect low turnout on that, but it should crystalise some points of difference for those who are usually not that interested in politics.

  17. red blooded 17

    CV, re the Greens – I am not talking sympathy, but strategy. Lab were damaged significantly last time by the association with NZF. Winston and that damn ‘No’ sign were an embarrassment. Besides, there are plenty of Left voters who are keen for a good representatives of Gs in government. If they are excluded yet again, people like me will be strongly tempted to switch our votes next time and make it impossible for Lab to look past them because they are such a big voting block. And it’s a sign of good faith and whether any upcoming Lab lead govt will be straight dealers. They have given indications and assurances about working with the Gs in the next term. If they default on that it will be a very shoddy look.

    • Colonial Viper 17.1

      You’ve described what you think you should happen between Labour and the Greens and why; I’ve merely focused on the ‘how’.

  18. lurgee 18

    “National’s numbers have gone from 51 to 41.5 in a little over two months”

    That’s a silly comment. You’re doing what climate change deniers do when they draw lines starting at 1998 and claim this shows the planet is cooling.

    The 51.5 result was a blatant rogue. It looks like Labour have received a bit of a sustained boost from the leadership change – something I admit I said would not happen – but for goodness sake don’t dick about with the figures like that.

    • bad12 18.1

      Yes through most of the year i have been saying that across all the public polling the numbers for National were far too high, mostly, having no proof of out-right fraud, i have commented that National’s numbers were being read from the high side of the margin of error and Labour’s from the low side of that margin,

      Of course anyone with an interest could now try and make the case that this situation has simply been reversed, but, the ‘trend’, except for the ‘governing alone’ polls of the wishful thinkers has been a slow almost imperceptible slide for National,

      Labour having belatedly seen the light and having installed as leader David Cunliffe whom the membership had constantly demanded as leader would now seem to be more than comfortably ensconced in the high 30’s and i am going to predict that both Labour and National as the big two will enter the 2014 election race locked together at 39-40%,

      Bad news that for National of course as in the past decade it’s now minor coalition partners, ACT and United Future have burned away all their political capital and the Maori Party in my opinion faces in November 2014 electoral oblivion with a slim chance of retaining one MP in the Parliament,

      Bad enough as these numbers are for National, i predict that they can and will get worse, there is a point in the electoral cycle where the electorate crosses a line where there is no way back for a particular Government,

      For Slippery the Prime Minister i believe that such a line was crossed with His handling of the GCSB Legislation, and funnily enough He has only His ego to blame, my view of the GCSB furore is that if he had of held that ‘public inquiry’ into the GCSB and SIS it would have first placated the right wing voters deeply disturbed by the ramifications of the GCSB Legislation along with droning on to the point where the electorate were also placated and National could have got away with the passing of much the same Legislation as it did without suffering the ongoing political fallout,

      Far too late to take it back, Slippery the PM must now either fall upon His own sword or watch the polls in horror, awaiting to get rolled in the inevitable bloody palace coup…

  19. Skinny 19

    I said for sometime National at the next election will suffer a landslide loss. The public are awake to all the spin and as the polls clearly show have had a gutsful of the glib mouthed Key & his flunkies. Labour & the Greens will have the mandate to move further left than they would have thought. Nice!

  20. LOL!!!!!

    And Ralph Nader is going to win in 2016.

    • fender 20.1

      I’m not surprised you keep your head in the sand and can’t handle the reality that the National Party support is slip-sliding-away. Please make sure you are here after the next election, because it’s looking more and more likely you will have many slices of humble pie to consume, and I’d hate to see you miss out.

    • Tracey 20.2

      Again your sharp analysis leaves us all in awe.

    • McFlock 20.3

      meow

    • bad12 20.4

      Please retire back to the sewer from whence you sprang and send in a better class of ‘wing-nut’ wont you Brett Dale, someone with the intellectual capability of posting comments that rise above DERRRR in content would be a bonus…

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