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Roy Morgan poll (please no not Winston)

Written By: - Date published: 6:47 am, May 27th, 2017 - 61 comments
Categories: election 2017, polls - Tags: ,

The chronically erratic Roy Morgan poll is out again:

National Party remains ‘dead-locked’ with Labour/Greens alliance in May pre-Budget

New Zealand’s governing National Party is unchanged with 43% support in May virtually level with the opposition Labour/Greens on 42.5% (unchanged) before this week’s New Zealand Budget delivered a second straight annual surplus.

The tight result means the strong support for New Zealand First on 10% (down 0.5%) once gain has Winston Peter’s party in a strong position to decide which parties will form New Zealand’s next Government after September’s election.

The overall support for the governing National-led coalition was down slightly to 45% with National support unchanged at 43%, support for the Maori Party increasing 0.5% to 1.5% while Act NZ was down 1% to 0.5% and support for United Future was unchanged at 0%.

Support for a potential Labour/Greens alliance was unchanged at 42.5% with support for Labour down 1% to 28.5%, while support for the Greens rose 1% to 14%. Support for New Zealand First was down 0.5% to 10%. …

61 comments on “Roy Morgan poll (please no not Winston) ”

  1. James 1

    I thought labour wanted to get to 40% – they are going the wrong way.

    Anger Andy could lead them to a worse result than last election.

    • Jenny Kirk 1.1

      Well – its well known the Morgan Poll is erratic.
      And this was taken before the fudged budget came out. Nor do we know what the number of “don’t knows” are.
      Too many unknowns – and now both the Greens and NZ First have voted with the government to support the Budget. Will that change anything ?

      • The decrypter 1.1.1

        Will that change anything? Yes it will, It has made me depressed. Woe is me!

      • dukeofurl 1.1.2

        “Well – its well known the Morgan Poll is erratic.”

        Only because it polls the most often, the results are what the public are saying to them, along with the margin of error

        Dont think of polls are some sort of oracle, they should be swinging around within the margin of error

        Its a misconception to consider Morgan polls more volatile than others and thus less accurate

      • Roy Morgan actually is pretty stable. This whole meme about RM being erratic simply started after they had one rogue poll.

        It does bounce around, but no more than any other poll, you just notice it more because it’s the only one polling regularly.

    • Name-calling, James? Is that all you have? If name-calling’s okay by you, we can sort one out for you and use it here, every time you comment. Right now I can think of some unpleasant ones that’ll stick, if we use them often enough. and I’m betting there are plenty of people here who find your snide use of “Angry Andy” to be petty enough for such a response. Perhaps instead, you could lift your game. Your name-calling nastiness does you no favours.

      • James 1.2.1

        Is hat all I have ? no I have consistently low poll numbers from labour to laugh at.

        Are you trying to start a little online bully club calling me names? Cute. – ffs you are probably the most pathetic person in here (with an unhealthy Obsession stalking me it seems).

        • Robert Guyton 1.2.1.1

          You come here to laugh at Labour’s poll numbers, James?
          And you wonder why people here express their lack of respect for you?
          Join the dots, James.
          Please.

        • Daveosaurus 1.2.1.2

          Anger Andy
          Are you trying to start a little online bully club calling me names?

          You seems to have misread the name of this website: it’s “The Standard”. You’d fit in better at “The Double Standard”. I don’t know where to find it, but presume that your local chapter of the National Party could point you in the right direction.

    • You said –
      Anger Andy could lead them to a worse result than last election.

      James, you are a pathetic no body.

  2. Wayne 2

    Winston is going to do better than 10% and the Greens somewhat less than 14%, probably between 10 and 12%.

    Labour, perhaps will stick around the 28%. Budget week has done them no favours at all, not with both the Greens and NZF voting for the budget (or at least the tax and WWF package).

    I see there is now speculation that if National is the govt, then the Greens will want some form of arrangement with National. Obviously not in coalition, but something that gives tangible rewards on policy.

    I wonder if Greens MP’s can be Parliamentary Secretaries in charge of a specific policy area, even if they are not in government? It seems to me probably yes, since such a role is not really part of the Executive.

    [Wayne, now seems a good time to sort this out. Can you please explain how the Green Executive could choose to support the formation of a National Govt, with reference to GP internal party rules? thanks – weka]

    • The decrypter 2.1

      Woe is me!

    • Ad 2.2

      Who really gives a damn about ‘internal rules’ when there are Ministerial slots up for grabs? Answer: not a single MP.

      The Greens voting with the current government on the 2017 budget shows that, when faced with the fundamental test of whether you are in Opposition or in Government – Confidence and Supply – the Greens fold like origami.

      • weka 2.2.1

        So you are saying that internal rules mean nothing and that a few of the MPs and/or the exec can do what they like? I doubt that is true legally, but even if it was, it would destroy the party.

        Never ceases to amaze me how little people understand how the GP works and how much the membership has a say in what happens. Or even what the MPs believe in.

        I’ll just keep putting the challenge out there. For people that believe that the GP can support the formation of a National govt this year, explain how it can happen in real terms (not just stuff you are making up in your head). I’m really curious to know how people see that working, because as far as I can see people are baselessly speculating from their own political agenda.

        Here’s the reference post for the GP internal rules,

        Green Politics

        • heman 2.2.1.1

          I am sorry to keep going on about the point england development enabling bill aka the sale of a public reserve/playing fields. but read the bill itself and you tell me how a so called green party can abstain from this.

          https://www.beehive.govt.nz/sites/all/files/Point%20England%20Development%20Enabling%20Bill.pdf

          Would appreciate your view weka. Green members have resigned over it!

          • weka 2.2.1.1.1

            Sorry, but it’s a complicated situation (at the other end of the country from me 😉 ) and I don’t feel I have the time to do it justice. I haven’t even been following the comments that closely on this topic. If you put together some links to TS commentary you have made I’ll have a look at see if they might work as a Guest Post that you could have published here.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 2.3

      Nice to see your relentless dishonesty has finally attracted the attention of a moderator.

      I predict you will demonstrate zero personal responsibility for it.

    • Wayne 2.4

      Weka,

      I appreciate this is a bit late for my reply.

      My proposition was really on the basis that National was already forming the government, either on the current basis or with NZ First. So the Greens would not actually be required. So that will not be an issue for the Green Executive.

      However, for different reasons both the Greens and National want to make progress on environmental issues, the Greens obviously more so than National. But National will want to show the Greens that they can make progress, perhaps on fresh water and aspects of transport.

      If the Greens thought National was serious enough about this, they might want to do something with National. It would be more than the home insulation MOU of 2008, hence the suggestion of Parliamentary Secretaries. It might also mean the Greens are less critical generally about National.

      In part it is about the Greens working out whether they can be a third force, as is the already the case with NZF, able to go either way or whether they are irredeemably tied to Labour.

      • Home insulation, Wayne? Gone by lunchtime, wasn’t it?
        “If the Greens thought trusted National was serious enough about this…”
        Well, Wayne, they’re not so naive as to do that, are they.

        • Wayne 2.4.1.1

          Robert,

          I am talking of a situation where National is the government. The Greens can either get something worthwhile (your cynicism notwithstanding) or they can sit on the sidelines yet again for another three years and get nothing.

          From what I can see James Shaw and others in the Greens, perhaps in fact all of them, might think getting something of significant environmental value would be worth it. This would be something extra that National would probably not do itself.

          • Robert Guyton 2.4.1.1.1

            Yes, Wayne, you’re speculating. I’d prefer to talk about a situation where National wasn’t the government. The Greens have already tried an MOU with National and it didn’t fly for long, so different are the two party’s priorities. I don’t see why the lesson learned from that MOU would be lost on the Greens; it certainly isn’t on their supporters.

  3. Ad 3

    There was plenty of room for Grant Robertson to set out a detailed alternative financial outlook for New Zealand and in so doing give bored NZFirst and swinging National voters a reason to change.

    Nothing. Not a detailed alternative on-paper direction or anything close.

    He gave instead a set of anodyne pronouns.

    And he gave no unity from the Greens and Labour, despite all the promises that finally this time they could both show they had their shit together.

    It still looks to me that Grant would prefer to wait out Little’s post-2017 political death, enable Ardern to ascend, and perpetuate her as the glove puppet of mediocrity.

    Meanwhile a National-led government in its fourth term has the capacity to play all kinds, case by case, from the cross-benches.

    • Et Tu Brute 3.1

      Really what alternative could he give? Broadly speaking the budget was Labour Lite and chock full of election bribes.

      • DoublePlusGood 3.1.1

        Something like the Corbyn Labour manifesto would have been great.

      • Ad 3.1.2

        Publish and release actual costed specifics that shows he can do more than simply agree that they won’t spend too much.

        That is to say, do his fucking job.

        • The Chairman 3.1.2.1

          It’s hard to hold the Government to account when one doesn’t have an alternative on hand to offer.

          Which is why I’ve been telling Labour to get their shit together when it comes to having policy.

          • Craig H 3.1.2.1.1

            There are still nearly 4 months to go – costed policy is best left till closer to the end to avoid National stealing it.

            • The Chairman 3.1.2.1.1.1

              Ha, so I keep hearing.

              Costed policy is required now and National can adopt Labour policy at any given time, thus the excuse doesn’t wash. Hence, Labour are languishing in the polls.

  4. saveNZ 4

    Corbyn’s starting to storm home in the UK inspite of everything against him, so a lesson for those who write Labour off.

    If NZ Labour can communicate a better vision tailor made to the many, and specific to NZ’s concerns around foreign policy, economy, society and environment, then they will win.

    They also need to articulate the alternative, what 3 more years of the Natz will do to the country.

  5. Bearded Git 5

    My rolling average of the last 4 Roy Morgan’s shows:

    Lab/Gr 42.0
    Lab/Gr/NZF 51.0
    Nats 44.4
    Nats/ACT/MP 46.9
    Nats/ACT/MP/NZF 55.9
    NZF 9.0

    If Winnie goes as part of the 4-headed monster it’s 55.9 versus 42.0

    If Winnie goes with the Lab/Gr bloc it’s 51.0 versus 46.9

    Both would give safe majorities, especially as Hone will probably win TTT. The poll is not so erratic in that it has shown basically the same thing in the last 3 polls; that National is polling 43% under English rather than more like 48% under Key.

  6. weka 6

    How about we focus on what Labour and the Greens need for an outright win (or with support from Mana/Mp)?

    • Bearded Git 6.1

      @weka Unfortunately the Maori Party seem wedded to National. Their support of the Nats RMA reforms shows how far they have shifted to the Right.

      • weka 6.1.1

        Marama Fox has pretty much said she will work with a L/G govt. So not wedded so much as a relationship of convenience that has run its course. Prepare for the divorce. The bigger obstacle is the lefties that hate the Mp and would rather lose the election than work with them.

        • saveNZ 6.1.1.1

          Fox will work with anyone who gives her the most power. Who would trust them after the RMA and everything else they have done against most Maori?

          • weka 6.1.1.1.1

            Who would trust the Greens after they voted for National’s budget bill? By all means try and go with Labour alone. But not enough people trust Labour, so let’s just cancel the election and give National another term 😉

            The alternative is L/NZF with the Greens sidelined, or a L/GP/NF coalition, which while possible strikes me as being the trickiest govt we could have in terms of making it work and puts Labour at risk for the next election. By all means make the case for why those two options would be better than a L/G coalition govt with C and S from the Mp and Mana.

            • Bearded Git 6.1.1.1.1.1

              @ weka Oh come on Weka, you are buying in to the Right’s attempts to split the Labour green bloc. The Greens made it plain they hated much of the budget but supported the tax changes and accommodation supplements for the lower paid. (I’m not sure they picked up on the deletion of the Independent Earner Tax Credit that lost many low paid people $520 a year, which to his credit Andrew Little did.)

              Having said that, I personally (as a Green voter) think they should have voted against the budget-it was dumb to pick out a small part and support it on that basis.

              And when oh when are Labour and the Greens actually going to learn to communicate with each other?

              • weka

                Not sure what you’re on about there BG. My comment was to serve a purpose, i.e. if we start getting that picky about trusting political parties in that way, there is no-one left to vote for. I’ve written quite a bit in the past few days about why the Greens voted for the Bill, go look it up.

          • Bearded Git 6.1.1.1.2

            @ save nz agreed…..I wouldn’t trust Fox as far as I can spit.

        • amirite 6.1.1.2

          Have you seen Te Ururoa Flawell’s passionate support for Nats on Budget day in Parliament? Methinks they are more than just wedded to the Nats, glued to them by true love, more like. They’re totally convinced Nats have done more for Maori than any other Party.

          • weka 6.1.1.2.1

            They might choose National over Labour/Greens. But what if they are kingmaker? Would you prefer that they chose National over L/G and give National and 4th term? That’s what the question is here.

            I think that the biggest threat to a left wing govt is Peters. He will either choose National, or force Labour to exclude the Greens, or if they don’t get enough numbers, go into a 3 way coalition L/G/NZF, which would prevent a true left move. None of those are good options, the last two are just less bad options than National.

            Better for L/G to go for enough votes to govern alone, and if they can’t quite manage that, I’d prefer C and S from 2 or 3 Mp/Mana MPs than having Peters in govt with a whole bunch of known centrist MPs.

            • amirite 6.1.1.2.1.1

              No, of course not. However, what makes you believe they would choose Labour if it comes to them being a kingmaker? For all we know they are just as an unknown as NZFirst.
              The best option is Lab/Greens able to govern alone. They have to sort their shit together and present a clear alternative, not this centrist neolib-lite wishy-washy coalition which doesn’t now what they stand for.
              In a situation like this, a political Party like Alliance is sadly missed.

              • weka

                I think the Mp will choose whichever side gives them the best deal for their people.

                AFAIK they consult with their people and take direction from them on this. I don’t know if that is membership only, or if it’s the communities they work in. Since 2008 there has been no option to choose Labour, only to choose National or to choose to be outside of govt. Their people told them better in the tent than out.

                I think Fox would be quite happy to work with L/G. Flavell less so. But if it’s a choice between being with L/G or outside of govt completely I fully expect them to choose L/G. Even if they don’t, what does the left lose in that situation?

                If they are kingmaker, then let’s hope that the antagonism that Labour has directed their way doesn’t get in the way of negotiations, so that the Mp get a good deal for their people and thus allow NZ a left wing govt.

                Yes, Labour and the Greens should have abandoned neoliberalism, but unless they have a cunning plan, I suspect that it’s too late in the electoral cycle to do a radical change, which means we are left with looking at a potential close election and who coalition partners might be.

                • Karen

                  The Māori Party only consult with their members.

                  Of course they say they are open to working with Labour – if they didn’t they wouldn’t have a chance of winning a seat. Surveys of Māori Party voters have always said their preference is that they worked with Labour than National, so if they were in a position to support a Labour led government they would presumably want to do that or risk being kicked out at the next election. I have never seen a survey of their members.

                  As for the antagonism it goes both ways. I have seen some nasty stuff, even from Fox. It happens when you are fighting over the same electorate seats.

                  I still expect Flavell will win and they will get enough party votes for Fox and maybe one other, but I’m aware of growing discontent amongst Māori in Flavell’s seat because of his pushing through his Ture Whenua bill. I don’t think Hone will win.

            • Bearded Git 6.1.1.2.1.2

              @weka “Better for L/G to go for enough votes to govern alone….”

              Do you really think that L/G are not already trying to get enough votes to govern alone? Of course they are-your comment adds nothing to the debate.

              Of course it would be better in L/G got enough votes to govern alone. Most people on this blog (myself included) would be delighted if they had enough votes to govern alone. The fact is the polls (per my posting above) show that Winston is the Left’s only hope at this point in time. Ojala this changes.

              I agree Winston will sideline the Greens.

              • weka

                “Do you really think that L/G are not already trying to get enough votes to govern alone? ”

                My reading is that yes, this is exactly what they are doing. My comment was for the commentariat 😉 Stop thinking Peters *will be kingmaker, and look at how to support L/G to get enough votes to not need him.

    • The decrypter 6.2

      Lab/Gr need Jackson to now earn his keep and demolish mp/mana.

      • weka 6.2.1

        I’m sure that is Labour’s desire, but it might cost them the election or give them a result that means they have to compromise hugely in order to govern and then be at risk for the next election.

  7. James 7

    So who here things labour can get to 40%?

    And takers at 35%

    30%

    Under 30?

    Could they go as low as 25?

    Interested to see who thinks labour has what kind of support across the voting public.

    I’m thinking they will be about 26%.

    • weka 7.1

      Why does it matter what Labour polls at? It’s the combined L/G vote that’s the important thing this year. You appear to be stuck in old FPP thinking. Or you are trolling.

      • James 7.1.1

        Neither.

        1 – labour stated that they wanted 40% at this election.

        I was wondering if anybody here actually thought they could – or how close they would be (or not).

        2 – the labour / green MOU runs out at the election – as mentioned above there is talk (rumour / gossip) of an arrangement of some type with national.

        3 – it’s a thread on poll results – so thought it generally on subject.

        • weka 7.1.1.1

          1. you don’t vote on the left, so the only reason I can see for you caring is to undermine Labour and thus the potential of a left wing govt.

          2. The Greens won’t go with National (can’t in fact). Are you suggesting that Labour might?

          3. See point 1.

          But really, it’s MMP. Who cares what split happens between L/G so long as they get enough to govern?

        • The decrypter 7.1.1.2

          That’s better james, much better.

  8. Tamati Tautuhi 8

    National and the Big Double Dipper will only get between 35-40% may even go under 35% they have been bull sh*tting NZ for too long now.

  9. Michael 9

    I think polling data is becoming increasingly unreliable and Roy Morgan seems to lead the pack. Averaging successive polls (which are only snapshots anyway) seems to be the most useful way of obtaining any sensible evidence from them. AFAICS, from doing that, Labour’s overall support has lifted in recent months, but only slightly, and not nearly enough for it to have a shitshow of forming the next government. Of course, the data might be rubbish, or my interpretive skills might be rubbish, but I think my conclusion is probably accurate. The only public statement that Jim Bolger will ever be remembered for is: “Bugger the pollsters”.

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