Run of bad polls gets worse for Nats

Written By: - Date published: 10:47 am, May 20th, 2010 - 50 comments
Categories: Economy - Tags:

The latest Roy Morgan poll makes for grim reading for the government ahead of what promsies to be an unpopular budget.

Confidence in government is now bouncing between net 25% and 30% positive. That compares to 55% last October. Put that another way: 1 in 8 Kiwis have gone from having a postive view of this government to a negative one in the past half year, and it’s showing up in the party’s numbers.

National plus ACT (the Right) now equals 51%. That was 59% in October. National on 48.5% at its lowest since February 2009.

The Left (Labour, Greens, Progressives) now stand at 43% up from 34.5% in October.

Labour is up 7.5% from its low this electoral cycle, although there will be disappointment that they’re not pick it up more. The Greens are the big winners though. As with every electoral cycle some stupid commentators have been saying the Greens might not get back in, buggering the Left. Well, at 9% they look pretty solid.

The gap between the two sides has gone from 24.5% to 8%. In other words, if National has another period as bad as the past half year, it loses in 2011.

The next election has always been National’s to lose. With mining, whaling, visionless economic policy, public service cuts, and a ‘tax switch’ that puts our money in the rich elite’s pockets, the Nats seem to be doing their damnest to do just that.

50 comments on “Run of bad polls gets worse for Nats ”

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  1. Lanthanide 1
    20 May 2010 at 10:55 am

    I think if there was a serious chance that the Greens wouldn’t make it past the 5% threshold, and Labour needed them to form a coalition, there would be many willing Labour voters who would vote Green in order to get Labour into government. I know I certainly would.

    This is assuming that the Green party hadn’t done anything retarded to jeopardise themselves.

  2. Nemesis 2
    20 May 2010 at 11:00 am

    You seem to have trouble reading Marty.

    For Labour to get into government it needs the Greens to score double digits, NZ First to make it back into Parliament, and to mend fences with the Maori Party. All three are a tall order. As long as Labour wallows on 33.5% they’ve got no chance of getting back into government. Nice that you’re an optimist.

    The National Party on 48.5% means they can govern alone.

    • gobsmacked 2.1
      20 May 2010 at 11:28 am

      Marty was commenting on the trend. Which is clear.

      If National want to try and govern without the Maori Party (and judging by the last week or so, it looks like they do), then National/ACT will need 48-49%. That takes into account wasted votes, and possible overhang.

      So provided National does nothing to alienate any more voters for the next 18 months, they’ll be fine.

      Good luck with that.

      • Ari 2.1.1
        21 May 2010 at 10:38 am

        There are many voters that will actually require more than nothing alienating them to vote for a party. Not everyone is terribly motivated to vote at all, let alone for a specific bloc.

    • Bright Red 2.2
      20 May 2010 at 11:32 am

      neme. you’re assuming no more decline in National’s ratings. That’s pretty f*cken stupid.

      The whole point of this post and of polls at this stage is trends.

      Are the trends for National looking good?

      • Nemesis 2.2.1
        20 May 2010 at 11:40 am

        Yes I think national’s numbers will improve. They’re already much better than at the last election, and at the next election National will have governed over lowering unemployment and got through the worst recession the world has had in 80 years, with much lower deficits than when labour was in power. Labour left a broken econommy in its wake unprepared for the world recession, with five years of no growth in the productive sector before the international recession hit. All their answers to fiscal management are to spend billions more. Labour are a joke.

        • gobsmacked 2.2.1.1
          20 May 2010 at 11:53 am

          Nemesis, if your psephological analysis is as sharp as your economic analysis, National are in real trouble.

        • Bright Red 2.2.1.2
          20 May 2010 at 1:28 pm

          Nemesis. Unemployment is up under National, it only dropped last quarter. It’s still up by tens of thousands on where it was when National came to power.

          Labour didn’t run deficits. Remember how you lot used to bitch about Cullen running too large surpluses? Labour left a govt in the best possible position for a recession: no net debt and effectively fully employment.

          • Alwyn 2.2.1.2.1
            20 May 2010 at 7:02 pm

            Yes it dropped during the first quarter of the year.
            Of course the Trend you are talking about is in the first quarter of the year.
            Perhaps National can claim that the trend in unemployment is for it to be going rapidly down.
            Alternatively perhaps we can say that the number of people who say that they would pick National if an election was held today is hundreds of thousands up on the number at the last election who voted National.
            In either case it is silly to look at the trend in a three month period and say it is significant in one case but not in the other.
            The differences in the numbers in the polls is still within the margin of error.
            I expect the National polling figures to drop. There has only been ONE occasion in the last 70 years when a party got more than 50% of the votes in an election. That was in 1951.

        • Draco T Bastard 2.2.1.3
          20 May 2010 at 3:30 pm

          You’re really showing your delusion there.

          1.) Labour left the economy in the best possible shape to weather the recession according to Blinglish
          2.) National may have governed over lowering unemployment but not due to anything that they’ve done (which really does count BTW)

          on top of those

          3.) They’ve supported whaling
          4.) They’ve supported mining protected areas of NZ
          5.) They’ve done a tax swap that puts more taxes on the 92% of people that don’t pay the top tax rate and given it to the people who do – most notably, themselves.

  3. ianmac 3
    20 May 2010 at 11:00 am

    I have vacillated between Green Labour and thought of asking if I could have two Party votes so I could vote for both. If by voting Green it left Labour without a body it would be a wasted vote. Torn. 🙁

    • Nemesis 3.1
      20 May 2010 at 11:05 am

      It’s hard to believe the greens will get double figures with Norman and Turei. Any assumption that they can form a government based on the greens getting double figures is loony. Labour won’t be able to form a government unless they get forty percent of the vote, and they are way below that now.

    • outofbed 3.2
      20 May 2010 at 5:49 pm

      IMHO The only way the Greens will get into double figures is to take it from the left of labour
      Labour is pretty much a centrist party nowadays with a rightish leader so that shouldn’t be too difficult 🙂

      • The Voice of Reason 3.2.1
        20 May 2010 at 6:41 pm

        That’s the sort of thinking that just elected David Cameron PM. Think of how those suckered British lefties feel now, having tactically voted Liberal to send Labour a message and ending up with Call Me Dave in Downing Street instead of the Lib Lab coalition they assumed they’d get. Taking votes off each other is pointless mathematically and bad strategically.

        I’d be interested in if and how you think Labour and the Greens can work together to lift the overall left vote, because that’s what is needed. I think Goff, even at single figures in the Hollywood stakes, can stitch together a coalition on numbers only a little better than are in the Morgan Poll, but we have to give people a reason to vote left. For mine, that means agreeing publicly pre-election that both parties intend to work together in the next Government and inviting other parties to indicate their willingness to be in, or at least work with, a progressive alternative.

        Most European countries are used to left and right blocs being formulated prior to elections. It’s a quite useful form of electoral branding under MMP and treats voters with respect. They can still vote for their party of choice,but with a reasonable certainty as to the outcome if their party’s bloc wins enough votes overall.

    • Ari 3.3
      21 May 2010 at 10:43 am

      Ian: Actually, the way the algorithm works, it’s probably mathematically optimal to vote for the smaller of the two parties in terms of number of seats a potential coalition has in Parliament, as the algorithm used in New Zealand is more generous to smaller parties. Given that you’re transferring vote share between two parties you both support and that are likely to enter coalition together, you’re unlikely to effect the overall size of the government with any significance on your own.

      Really, who you give your party vote to should be a matter of which policy direction you want to be stronger in the next government. The only risk of giving your vote to the Greens is if Labour is in a position to cut them out of a potential coalition to gain support of other minor parties- which doesn’t seem particularly likely with UF small again and NZF polling below the threshold.

  4. Pat 4
    20 May 2010 at 11:03 am

    National’s on 48.5%? They must be shaking in their boots.

    • Armchair Critic 4.1
      20 May 2010 at 11:09 am

      18 months to go. I encourage National to be complacent too, but probably for different reasons than yours.
      The poll itself doesn’t seem to show much difference to the last one. The government approval rating, which was dropping previously, seems to have stopped dropping, that’s about the only trend that interested me.

      • lprent 4.1.1
        20 May 2010 at 11:13 am

        ditto – the direct polls seem to be far too sensitive to short term events and outright sentiment in the mid-term.

        The GCR in the morgan poll is more indicative of actual mood in my observation. It appears to have dropped to a lower plateau for the moment. It is going to be interesting to see what it does after the budget and the subsequent weeks of discussion.

        • Armchair Critic 4.1.1.1
          20 May 2010 at 11:36 am

          LP – last poll you commented about a possible plateau in the GCR and it appears you were right.
          At the time I wondered whether there was a relationship between movements in the GCR and the “undecided” percentage. It occurred to me that when the number of undecideds rose the GCR would move. When I have time I will put the figures into a spreadsheet and look for a trend.

          • lprent 4.1.1.1.1
            20 May 2010 at 11:47 am

            Just looking by eye, there doesn’t appear to be a particularly high correlation.

            However I suspect that there is one is to the spikey up and down when it does plateau. Just looks like the sampling ‘error’ when multiplied through using Morgans calc. That is why I don’t get excited by the 5% to 6% movements up and down.

  5. vidiot 5
    20 May 2010 at 11:52 am

    If you want to look at trends compare – May 3-16, 2010 to November 17-30, 2008. Not really much difference in 18 odd months.

    • snoozer 5.1
      20 May 2010 at 12:26 pm

      that’s not a trend vidiot. Look at the graphs, the turning points.

      If you ignore the fact that Natioanl rose between your two dates and is now falling you miss what’s actually happening.

      But I guess that’s just more comfortable for you.

  6. Doug 6
    20 May 2010 at 12:22 pm

    Marty G: Dreaming National more popular now than Election time.

    Dates: 20 October to 02 November 2008

    Client: Self Published

    Report: Roy Morgan Website

    Party Support

    National 42.0% (-1.0%)
    Labour 34.5% (+2.5%)
    Green 10.0% (-1.5%)
    NZ First 4.5% (nc)
    Maori 2.5% (nc)
    United Future 1.0% (+0.5%)
    ACT 4.0% (+0.5%)
    Progressive 0.0% (-0.5%)
    Other 1.5% (-0.5%)

    • snoozer 6.1
      20 May 2010 at 12:31 pm

      Do none of the rightards understand what a trend is? Look at the graphs. see how there’s a turning point? see the direction National’s numbers are heading in? that’s the trend.

      • Clarke 6.1.1
        20 May 2010 at 6:39 pm

        Exactly. The direction for the Nats is irrevocably downwards, so the only really interesting data point is how steep the line is – how far and how fast will their popularity fall?

  7. big bruv 7
    20 May 2010 at 12:26 pm

    If Labour want this poll trend to continue then they have to do one thing.

    Keep Goff away from the press.

    He is your biggest problem.

  8. kriswgtn 8
    20 May 2010 at 12:32 pm

    People tend to forget the Huge number of Labour voters who didnt bother to vote in 2008

    It is up to Labour to get out there and get them off their backsides to vote

    Labour HAVE to get rid of GOFF BECAUSE HE JUST DONT CUT IT AS A PM

    [lprent

    MINIMIZE THE SHOUTING BECAUSE IT HURTS MY EYES. IF YOU HAVE TO RELY ON IT, THEN IT PROBABLY MEANS YOU ARE UNCONFIDENT IN YOUR ABILITY TO GET YOUR POINT ACROSS. AND ANYWAY I CAN SHOUT LOUDER THAN YOU.

    ]

  9. Sanctuary 9
    20 May 2010 at 12:43 pm

    The problem I have with the Green’s polling at 9% is they have a tradition of having supporters who don’t seem to bother voting.

    • Alwyn 9.1
      20 May 2010 at 3:36 pm

      I don’t think that they have supporters who don’t vote as much as having people who think they look kind, generous, good to the environment and so on by saying they are going to vote Green.
      When they actually get to vote in a secret ballot they then vote Labour, National or New Zealand First etc.
      It was the same in Britain when the vote actually received by the Lib/Dems was lower than the Polls said it would be.
      The Greens tend to get only about two thirds of the vote that the polls immediately before and after the election would indicate.
      A month ago I thought they would have difficulty getting over the 5% threshold. They probably will although they should concentrate more on green issues rather than the general gamut of left wing politics.
      The approach that says the trend has swung away from National is pushing things pretty hard. The actual Budget will swing things back their way. It comes across as a very clever set of proposals, far more so than I expected. It’s really quite hard to attack it without coming across as merely National Bad/ Labour Good.

    • outofbed 9.2
      20 May 2010 at 5:51 pm

      Are you making it up as you go along?

  10. Croc 10
    20 May 2010 at 12:56 pm

    The next election has always been National’s to lose. With mining, whaling, visionless economic policy, public service cuts, and a ‘tax switch’ that puts our money in the rich elite’s pockets, the Nats seem to be doing their damnest to do just that.

    Expect in about 6 months time the inoculations beginning. National will begin to spin everything in its favour, Crosby-Textor will be conniving in the background and unfortunately the NZ public has a very short memory. To be honest I don’t think Phil Goff has much chance against John Key. Anything could happen in 18 months. Don’t forget it only takes one Orewa speech to swing the trend back to National if they can find an issue topical enough.

    • Joe Blog 10.1
      20 May 2010 at 2:56 pm

      “Don’t forget it only takes one Orewa speech to swing the trend back to National if they can find an issue topical enough.”

      Likewise for Labour/Greens to decisively alter the game.

  11. Joe Blog 11
    20 May 2010 at 2:47 pm

    The summary on Roy Morgan makes interesting reading:

    [deleted]

    (http://www.roymorgan.com.au/)

    [lprent: In your own words rather than simply quoting – the link was sufficent. I think most of us have already read the poll, and the only interesting thing is the trend in the GCR this year. Plummeted. ]

    • Joe Blog 11.1
      20 May 2010 at 3:35 pm

      I disagree about that trend being the only interesting thing lprent.

      I think the most interesting things from this poll are:
      1) Labours polling hasn’t changed in this latest poll cycle
      2) The number of people saying this country is heading in the right direction has increased by 4% while compared to those saying it is heading in the wrong direction has decreased by 1.5%.

      We have recently seen the what were described as the biggest protests in a generation against this governments mining plans, along with some of Phill Goff’s best speeches and public performances (in my opinion at least) since becoming leader and they appear to have made zero impact to Labours overall support.

      While Labour is doing some good things around listening to the average person (eg their open government initiative) they seem hell bent on pursuing the suggestion that I hear almost daily from Labour supporters and that is find a new leader.

      • lprent 11.1.1
        20 May 2010 at 3:49 pm

        You should read some of the previous discussion between myself and gingercrush on the GCR. But basically..

        1. A GCR +/- needs to be over 6% to be of any interest. That is about how much it varies between polls when it is staying in the same position.

        2. Looking at differences between polls that are well inside the margin of error is just the sign of someone being obsessive about numbers rather than being intelligent. It merely indicates sampling errors are more likely than anything significant. If the changes two polls are less than the MOR, then trend of a series of polls is the only thing that is significiant. Morgan gives the graphs read them (and weep).

        3. The inherent basis of telephone based polling means that absolute numbers or percentages are totally subject to the methodology. Which is why it is difficult if not impossible to compare between different polls. (At least you haven’t done that).

        4. Polls, especially in mid-term, are laggy on events by quite a few weeks and frequently by months. People take time to adsorb information.

        5. Anyway, did you check the dates that the poll was taken? Bearing in mind that the anti-mining was only a few weeks ago, and so were the speeches you’re referring to – then it is likely that they might not have happened by the time the poll was taken.

        • Joe Blog 11.1.1.1
          20 May 2010 at 4:22 pm

          Thanks for the comments (1-3) I’ll go back and have a look at your conversations on the GCR.

          However as for points 4 and 5 I thought the same thing however in this case the polling was done the Monday directly after the protest and carried on for the next two weeks. As a result I would have expected to see at least a small upswing due to the anger and promotion of the issue, however the fact there has been none I think should a concern to Labour. If their ratings don’t change following the next poll then they should be deeply concerned as it would indicate that they made absolutely no connection with the public on this issue and the if current team have been unable to manage it under those circumstances they’re never going to.

          • lprent 11.1.1.1.1
            20 May 2010 at 4:40 pm

            I didn’t check the dates, but I wouldn’t read too much into the poll. It is too close to the events you’re interested in.

            You did see a wee upswing (but well within the margin of error). The greens went up as they have been doing slowly for a while. The anti-mining march was organised by greenpeace and forest and bird. The politicians just came along for the ride.

            But I usually find that polls lag events by quite a lot except under some specific conditions. Peoples initial reaction is usually not to change their mind by much unless it is a directly emotional issue (like a bomb killing people or an Owera type speech). They will have a think about things, converse with other people, and come to a conclusion weeks or months after an event. This is particularly evident in polls that sample a range of people who usually don’t bother placing too much importance on politics (unlike online polls which self-select for activists and people with a gripe)

            • Joe Blog 11.1.1.1.1.1
              20 May 2010 at 4:58 pm

              This was an Orewa type issue, Lprent.

              It forced up to 40,000 people onto the streets. You know and I know that for every person that actually got off their bums to walk down Queen Street that there were at least another 5-10 who would have agreed with the issue but either couldn’t get to the protest or choose not to.

              As I said if the next poll doesn’t show a increase to Labours polling numbers then nothing will.

              • lprent …
                20 May 2010 at 5:31 pm

                It doesn’t follow that way usually with protests and politics. If you look back through the history of the past 30 years you’ll find that there is seldom a fast change in response to even quite large protests. They don’t produce large effects in the short-term. Just for instance, try and find an effect from that protest with the tractor climbing parliaments steps – which got far more publicity. Or several hikois. Or just about any protest you can name.

                The effect in politics is more subtle. First it activates the activists, they wind up talking to friends and family, and starting to get to work on campaigning – all of which has a cumulative effect. Secondly it has the effect of making the idiots who provoked such a reaction to think again (well apart from Brownlee – hard to see if he thinks much at all) and making them more cautious. Same for their supporters.

                If they’re smart, they shift their policies from the undoable to the doable. Sometimes (like Muldoon successfully did in 1981), they attempt to activate their own wavering supporters using it as a provocation – generally this fails.

                But looking for fast effects from either protests or most speeches is naive. Politics is a long game and short-term effects are usually transient – ask the LibDems leader in the UK

            • Alwyn 11.1.1.1.1.2
              20 May 2010 at 7:11 pm

              I am interested in your comment (by lprent) about Polls lagging the event by quite a lot.
              Do you have a reference to any research being done on this?
              I had always thought that a long swing in the polls was simply an accumulation of things rather than a delayed reaction but I have nothing to base it on.

              • lprent …
                20 May 2010 at 8:28 pm

                Nothing academic, but I’m sure someone can point you in the direction of some papers on it.

                However, after watching the polls over the last 30 years, that is what I’ve observed. You sometimes get shock events that do shift the polls quite rapidly – like the Owera 1 speech, however even those usually take a couple of months to have their full effect.

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    Experiencing a locked computer can be frustrating, especially when you need access to your files and applications urgently. The methods to unlock your computer will vary depending on the specific situation and the type of lock you encounter. This guide will explore various scenarios and provide step-by-step instructions on how ...
    Gareth’s WorldBy admin
    18 hours ago

  • Faxing from Your Computer A Modern Guide to Sending Documents Digitally
    While the world has largely transitioned to digital communication, faxing still holds relevance in certain industries and situations. Fortunately, gone are the days of bulky fax machines and dedicated phone lines. Today, you can easily send and receive faxes directly from your computer, offering a convenient and efficient way to ...
    Gareth’s WorldBy admin
    18 hours ago

  • Protecting Your Home Computer A Guide to Cyber Awareness
    In our increasingly digital world, home computers have become essential tools for work, communication, entertainment, and more. However, this increased reliance on technology also exposes us to various cyber threats. Understanding these threats and taking proactive steps to protect your home computer is crucial for safeguarding your personal information, finances, ...
    Gareth’s WorldBy admin
    18 hours ago

  • Server-Based Computing Powering the Modern Digital Landscape
    In the ever-evolving world of technology, server-based computing has emerged as a cornerstone of modern digital infrastructure. This article delves into the concept of server-based computing, exploring its various forms, benefits, challenges, and its impact on the way we work and interact with technology. Understanding Server-Based Computing: At its core, ...
    Gareth’s WorldBy admin
    18 hours ago

  • Vroom vroom go the big red trucks
    The absolute brass neck of this guy.We want more medical doctors, not more spin doctors, Luxon was saying a couple of weeks ago, and now we’re told the guy has seven salaried adults on TikTok duty. Sorry, doing social media. The absolute brass neck of it. The irony that the ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    18 hours ago

  • Jones finds $410,000 to help the government muscle in on a spat project
    Buzz from the Beehive Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones relishes spatting and eagerly takes issue with environmentalists who criticise his enthusiasm for resource development. He relishes helping the fishing industry too. And so today, while the media are making much of the latest culling in the public service to ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    19 hours ago

  • Again, hate crimes are not necessarily terrorism.
    Having written, taught and worked for the US government on issues involving unconventional warfare and terrorism for 30-odd years, two things irritate me the most when the subject is discussed in public. The first is the Johnny-come-lately academics-turned-media commentators who … Continue reading → ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    22 hours ago

  • Despair – construction consenting edition
    Eric Crampton writes – Kainga Ora is the government’s house building agency. It’s been building a lot of social housing. Kainga Ora has its own (but independent) consenting authority, Consentium. It’s a neat idea. Rather than have to deal with building consents across each different territorial authority, Kainga Ora ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    22 hours ago

  • Coalition promises – will the Govt keep the commitment to keep Kiwis equal before the law?
    Muriel Newman writes – The Coalition Government says it is moving with speed to deliver campaign promises and reverse the damage done by Labour. One of their key commitments is to “defend the principle that New Zealanders are equal before the law.” To achieve this, they have pledged they “will not advance ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    22 hours ago

  • An impermanent public service is a guarantee of very little else but failure
    Chris Trotter writes –  The absence of anything resembling a fightback from the public servants currently losing their jobs is interesting. State-sector workers’ collective fatalism in the face of Coalition cutbacks indicates a surprisingly broad acceptance of impermanence in the workplace. Fifty years ago, lay-offs in the thousands ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    24 hours ago

  • What happens after the war – Mariupol
    Mariupol, on the Azov Sea coast, was one of the first cities to suffer almost complete destruction after the start of the Ukraine War started in late February 2022. We remember the scenes of absolute destruction of the houses and city structures. The deaths of innocent civilians – many of ...
    Open ParachuteBy Ken
    1 day ago

  • Babies and benefits – no good news
    Lindsay Mitchell writes – Ten years ago, I wrote the following in a Listener column: Every year around one in five new-born babies will be reliant on their caregivers benefit by Christmas. This pattern has persisted from at least 1993. For Maori the number jumps to over one in three.  ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    1 day ago

  • Should the RBNZ be looking through climate inflation?
    Climate change is expected to generate more and more extreme events, delivering a sort of structural shock to inflation that central banks will have to react to as if they were short-term cyclical issues. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāMy pick of the six newsey things to know from Aotearoa’s ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 day ago

  • Bernard's pick 'n' mix of the news links
    The top six news links I’ve seen elsewhere in the last 24 hours, as of 9:16 am on Thursday, April 18 are:Housing: Tauranga residents living in boats, vans RNZ Checkpoint Louise TernouthHousing: Waikato councillor says wastewater plant issues could hold up Sleepyhead building a massive company town Waikato Times Stephen ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 day ago

  • Gordon Campbell on the public sector carnage, and misogyny as terrorism
    It’s a simple deal. We pay taxes in order to finance the social services we want and need. The carnage now occurring across the public sector though, is breaking that contract. Over 3,000 jobs have been lost so far. Many are in crucial areas like Education where the impact of ...
    Gordon CampbellBy lyndon
    1 day ago

  • Meeting the Master Baiters
    Hi,A friend had their 40th over the weekend and decided to theme it after Curb Your Enthusiasm fashion icon Susie Greene. Captured in my tiny kitchen before I left the house, I ending up evoking a mix of old lesbian and Hillary Clinton — both unintentional.Me vs Hillary ClintonIf you’re ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    1 day ago

  • How extreme was the Earth's temperature in 2023
    This is a re-post from Andrew Dessler at the Climate Brink blog In 2023, the Earth reached temperature levels unprecedented in modern times. Given that, it’s reasonable to ask: What’s going on? There’s been lots of discussions by scientists about whether this is just the normal progression of global warming or if something ...
    Skeptical Science
    1 day ago

  • Backbone, revisited
    The schools are on holiday and the sun is shining in the seaside village and all day long I have been seeing bunches of bikes; Mums, Dads, teens and toddlers chattering, laughing, happy, having a bloody great time together. Cheers, AT, for the bits of lane you’ve added lately around the ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    2 days ago

  • Ministers are not above the law
    Today in our National-led authoritarian nightmare: Shane Jones thinks Ministers should be above the law: New Zealand First MP Shane Jones is accusing the Waitangi Tribunal of over-stepping its mandate by subpoenaing a minister for its urgent hearing on the Oranga Tamariki claim. The tribunal is looking into the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago

  • What’s the outfit you can hear going down the gurgler? Probably it’s David Parker’s Oceans Sec...
    Buzz from the Beehive Point  of Order first heard of the Oceans Secretariat in June 2021, when David Parker (remember him?) announced a multi-agency approach to protecting New Zealand’s marine ecosystems and fisheries. Parker (holding the Environment, and Oceans and Fisheries portfolios) broke the news at the annual Forest & ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    2 days ago

  • Will politicians let democracy die in the darkness?
    Bryce Edwards writes  – Politicians across the political spectrum are implicated in the New Zealand media’s failing health. Either through neglect or incompetent interventions, successive governments have failed to regulate, foster, and allow a healthy Fourth Estate that can adequately hold politicians and the powerful to account. ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    2 days ago

  • Matt Doocey doubles down on trans “healthcare”
    Citizen Science writes –  Last week saw two significant developments in the debate over the treatment of trans-identifying children and young people – the release in Britain of the final report of Dr Hilary Cass’s review into gender healthcare, and here in New Zealand, the news that the ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    2 days ago

  • A TikTok Prime Minister.
    One night while sleeping in my bed I had a beautiful dreamThat all the people of the world got together on the same wavelengthAnd began helping one anotherNow in this dream, universal love was the theme of the dayPeace and understanding and it happened this wayAfter such an eventful day ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    2 days ago

  • Texas Lessons
    This is a guest post by Oscar Simms who is a housing activist, volunteer for the Coalition for More Homes, and was the Labour Party candidate for Auckland Central at the last election. ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    2 days ago

  • Bernard's pick 'n' mix of the news links at 6:06 am
    The top six news links I’ve seen elsewhere in the last 24 hours as of 6:06 am on Wednesday, April 17 are:Must read: Secrecy shrouds which projects might be fast-tracked RNZ Farah HancockScoop: Revealed: Luxon has seven staffers working on social media content - partly paid for by taxpayer Newshub ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago

  • Fighting poverty on the holiday highway
    Turning what Labour called the “holiday highway” into a four-lane expressway from Auckland to Whangarei could bring at least an economic benefit of nearly two billion a year for Northland each year. And it could help bring an end to poverty in one of New Zealand’s most deprived regions. The ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    2 days ago

  • Bernard's six-stack of substacks at 6:26 pm
    Tonight’s six-stack includes: launching his substack with a bunch of his previous documentaries, including this 1992 interview with Dame Whina Cooper. and here crew give climate activists plenty to do, including this call to submit against the Fast Track Approvals bill. writes brilliantly here on his substack ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago

  • At a glance – Is the science settled?
    On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
    Skeptical Science
    3 days ago

  • Apposite Quotations.
    How Long Is Long Enough? Gaza under Israeli bombardment, July 2014. This posting is exclusive to Bowalley Road. ...
    Bowalley Road
    3 days ago

  • What’s a life worth now?
    You're in the mall when you hear it: some kind of popping sound in the distance, kids with fireworks, maybe. But then a moment of eerie stillness is followed by more of the fireworks sound and there’s also screaming and shrieking and now here come people running for their lives.Does ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    3 days ago

  • Howling at the Moon
    Karl du Fresne writes –  There’s a crisis in the news media and the media are blaming it on everyone except themselves. Culpability is being deflected elsewhere – mainly to the hapless Minister of Communications, Melissa Lee, and the big social media platforms that are accused of hoovering ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago

  • Newshub is Dead.
    I don’t normally send out two newsletters in a day but I figured I’d say something about… the news. If two newsletters is a bit much then maybe just skip one, I don’t want to overload people. Alternatively if you’d be interested in sometimes receiving multiple, smaller updates from me, ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago

  • Seymour is chuffed about cutting early-learning red tape – but we hear, too, that Jones has loose...
    Buzz from the Beehive David Seymour and Winston Peters today signalled that at least two ministers of the Crown might be in Wellington today. Seymour (as Associate Minister of Education) announced the removal of more red tape, this time to make it easier for new early learning services to be ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    3 days ago

  • Bryce Edwards: Will politicians let democracy die in the darkness?
    Politicians across the political spectrum are implicated in the New Zealand media’s failing health. Either through neglect or incompetent interventions, successive governments have failed to regulate, foster, and allow a healthy Fourth Estate that can adequately hold politicians and the powerful to account. Our political system is suffering from the ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    3 days ago

  • Was Hawkesby entirely wrong?
    David Farrar  writes –  The Broadcasting Standards Authority ruled: Comments by radio host Kate Hawkesby suggesting Māori and Pacific patients were being prioritised for surgery due to their ethnicity were misleading and discriminatory, the Broadcasting Standards Authority has found. It is a fact such patients are prioritised. ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago

  • PRC shadow looms as the Solomons head for election
    PRC and its proxies in Solomons have been preparing for these elections for a long time. A lot of money, effort and intelligence have gone into ensuring an outcome that won’t compromise Beijing’s plans. Cleo Paskall writes – On April 17th the Solomon Islands, a country of ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago

  • Climate Change: Criminal ecocide
    We are in the middle of a climate crisis. Last year was (again) the hottest year on record. NOAA has just announced another global coral bleaching event. Floods are threatening UK food security. So naturally, Shane Jones wants to make it easier to mine coal: Resources Minister Shane Jones ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago

  • Is saving one minute of a politician's time worth nearly $1 billion?
    Is speeding up the trip to and from Wellington airport by 12 minutes worth spending up more than $10 billion? Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The six news items that stood out to me in the last day to 8:26 am today are:The Lead: Transport Minister Simeon Brown announced ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago

  • Long Tunnel or Long Con?
    Yesterday it was revealed that Transport Minister had asked Waka Kotahi to look at the options for a long tunnel through Wellington. State Highway 1 (SH1) through Wellington City is heavily congested at peak times and while planning continues on the duplicate Mt Victoria Tunnel and Basin Reserve project, the ...
    Greater AucklandBy Matt L
    3 days ago

  • Smoke And Mirrors.
    You're a fraud, and you know itBut it's too good to throw it all awayAnyone would do the sameYou've got 'em goingAnd you're careful not to show itSometimes you even fool yourself a bitIt's like magicBut it's always been a smoke and mirrors gameAnyone would do the sameForty six billion ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago

  • What is Mexico doing about climate change?
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections The June general election in Mexico could mark a turning point in ensuring that the country’s climate policies better reflect the desire of its citizens to address the climate crisis, with both leading presidential candidates expressing support for renewable energy. Mexico is the ...
    Skeptical Science
    3 days ago

  • State of humanity, 2024
    2024, it feels, keeps presenting us with ever more challenges, ever more dismay.Do you give up yet? It seems to ask.No? How about this? Or this?How about this?When I say 2024 I really mean the state of humanity in 2024.Saturday night, we watched Civil War because that is one terrifying cliff we've ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    4 days ago

  • Govt’s Wellington tunnel vision aims to ease the way to the airport (but zealous promoters of cycl...
    Buzz from the Beehive A pet project and governmental tunnel vision jump out from the latest batch of ministerial announcements. The government is keen to assure us of its concern for the wellbeing of our pets. It will be introducing pet bonds in a change to the Residential Tenancies Act ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago

  • The case for cultural connectedness
    A recent report generated from a Growing Up in New Zealand (GUiNZ) survey of 1,224 rangatahi Māori aged 11-12 found: Cultural connectedness was associated with fewer depression symptoms, anxiety symptoms and better quality of life. That sounds cut and dry. But further into the report the following appears: Cultural connectedness is ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago

  • Useful context on public sector job cuts
    David Farrar writes –    The Herald reports: From the gory details of job-cuts news, you’d think the public service was being eviscerated.   While the media’s view of the cuts is incomplete, it’s also true that departments have been leaking the particulars faster than a Wellington ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago

  • Gordon Campbell On When Racism Comes Disguised As Anti-racism
    Remember the good old days, back when New Zealand had a PM who could think and speak calmly and intelligently in whole sentences without blustering? Even while Iran’s drones and missiles were still being launched, Helen Clark was live on TVNZ expertly summing up the latest crisis in the Middle ...
    Gordon CampbellBy lyndon
    4 days ago

  • Govt ignored economic analysis of smokefree reversal
    Costello did not pass on analysis of the benefits of the smokefree reforms to Cabinet, emphasising instead the extra tax revenues of repealing them. Photo: Hagen Hopkins, Getty Images TL;DR: The six news items that stood out to me at 7:26 am today are:The Lead: Casey Costello never passed on ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago

  • True Blue.
    True loveYou're the one I'm dreaming ofYour heart fits me like a gloveAnd I'm gonna be true blueBaby, I love youI’ve written about the job cuts in our news media last week. The impact on individuals, and the loss to Aotearoa of voices covering our news from different angles.That by ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago

  • Who is running New Zealand’s foreign policy?
    While commentators, including former Prime Minister Helen Clark, are noting a subtle shift in New Zealand’s foreign policy, which now places more emphasis on the United States, many have missed a key element of the shift. What National said before the election is not what the government is doing now. ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    4 days ago

  • 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #15
    A listing of 31 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, April 7, 2024 thru Sat, April 13, 2024. Story of the week Our story of the week is about adults in the room setting terms and conditions of ...
    Skeptical Science
    5 days ago

  • Feline Friends and Fragile Fauna The Complexities of Cats in New Zealand’s Conservation Efforts

    Cats, with their independent spirit and beguiling purrs, have captured the hearts of humans for millennia. In New Zealand, felines are no exception, boasting the highest national cat ownership rate globally [definition cat nz cat foundation]. An estimated 1.134 million pet cats grace Kiwi households, compared to 683,000 dogs ...

    Gareth’s WorldBy admin
    5 days ago

  • Or is that just they want us to think?
    Nice guy, that Peter Williams. Amiable, a calm air of no-nonsense capability, a winning smile. Everything you look for in a TV presenter and newsreader.I used to see him sometimes when I went to TVNZ to be a talking head or a panellist and we would yarn. Nice guy, that ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    5 days ago

  • Fact Brief – Did global warming stop in 1998?
    Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. This fact brief was written by Sue Bin Park in collaboration with members from our Skeptical Science team. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline. Did global warming stop in ...
    Skeptical Science
    6 days ago

  • Arguing over a moot point.
    I have been following recent debates in the corporate and social media about whether it is a good idea for NZ to join what is known as “AUKUS Pillar Two.” AUKUS is the Australian-UK-US nuclear submarine building agreement in which … Continue reading → ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    6 days ago

  • No Longer Trusted: Ageing Boomers, Laurie & Les, Talk Politics.
    Turning Point: “What has turned me away from the mainstream news media is the very strong message that its been sending out for the last few years.” “And what message might that be?” “That the people who own it, the people who run it, and the people who provide its content, really don’t ...
    Bowalley Road
    6 days ago

  • Mortgage rates at 10% anyone?
    No – nothing about that in PM Luxon’s nine-point plan to improve the lives of New Zealanders. But beyond our shores Jamie Dimon, the long-serving head of global bank J.P. Morgan Chase, reckons that the chances of a goldilocks soft landing for the economy are “a lot lower” than the ...
    Point of OrderBy xtrdnry
    6 days ago

  • Sad tales from the left
    Michael Bassett writes –  Have you noticed the odd way in which the media are handling the government’s crackdown on surplus employees in the Public Service? Very few reporters mention the crazy way in which State Service numbers rocketed ahead by more than 16,000 during Labour’s six years, ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago

  • In Whose Best Interests?
    On The Spot: The question Q+A host, Jack Tame, put to the Workplace & Safety Minister, Act’s Brooke van Velden, was disarmingly simple: “Are income tax cuts right now in the best interests of lowering inflation?”JACK TAME has tested another MP on his Sunday morning current affairs show, Q+A. Minister for Workplace ...
    Bowalley Road
    6 days ago

  • Don’t Question, Don’t Complain.
    It has to start somewhereIt has to start sometimeWhat better place than here?What better time than now?So it turns out that I owe you all an apology.It seems that all of the terrible things this government is doing, impacting the lives of many, aren’t necessarily ‘bad’ per se. Those things ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    6 days ago

  • Minister to Europe for OECD meeting, Anzac Day
    Science, Innovation and Technology and Defence Minister Judith Collins will next week attend the OECD Science and Technology Ministerial conference in Paris and Anzac Day commemorations in Belgium. “Science, innovation and technology have a major role to play in rebuilding our economy and achieving better health, environmental and social outcomes ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 hour ago

  • Comprehensive Partnership the goal for NZ and the Philippines
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr.  The Prime Minister was accompanied by MP Paulo Garcia, the first Filipino to be elected to a legislature outside the Philippines. During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon and President Marcos Jr discussed opportunities to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    12 hours ago

  • Government commits $20m to Westport flood protection
    The Government has announced that $20 million in funding will be made available to Westport to fund much needed flood protection around the town. This measure will significantly improve the resilience of the community, says Local Government Minister Simeon Brown. “The Westport community has already been allocated almost $3 million ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    18 hours ago

  • Taupō takes pole position
    The Government is proud to support the first ever Repco Supercars Championship event in Taupō as up to 70,000 motorsport fans attend the Taupō International Motorsport Park this weekend, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. “Anticipation for the ITM Taupō Super400 is huge, with tickets and accommodation selling out weeks ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    19 hours ago

  • Cost of living support for low-income homeowners
    Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced an increase to the Rates Rebate Scheme, putting money back into the pockets of low-income homeowners.  “The coalition Government is committed to bringing down the cost of living for New Zealanders. That includes targeted support for those Kiwis who are doing things tough, such ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    21 hours ago

  • Government backing mussel spat project
    The Coalition Government is investing in a project to boost survival rates of New Zealand mussels and grow the industry, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones has announced. “This project seeks to increase the resilience of our mussels and significantly boost the sector’s productivity,” Mr Jones says. “The project - ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    22 hours ago

  • Government focused on getting people into work
    Benefit figures released today underscore the importance of the Government’s plan to rebuild the economy and have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker Support, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “Benefit numbers are still significantly higher than when National was last in government, when there was about 70,000 fewer ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • Clean energy key driver to reducing emissions
    The Government’s commitment to doubling New Zealand’s renewable energy capacity is backed by new data showing that clean energy has helped the country reach its lowest annual gross emissions since 1999, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. New Zealand’s latest Greenhouse Gas Inventory (1990-2022) published today, shows gross emissions fell ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • Earthquake-prone buildings review brought forward
    The Government is bringing the earthquake-prone building review forward, with work to start immediately, and extending the deadline for remediations by four years, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “Our Government is focused on rebuilding the economy. A key part of our plan is to cut red tape that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • Thailand and NZ to agree to Strategic Partnership
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and his Thai counterpart, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, have today agreed that New Zealand and the Kingdom of Thailand will upgrade the bilateral relationship to a Strategic Partnership by 2026. “New Zealand and Thailand have a lot to offer each other. We have a strong mutual desire to build ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Government consults on extending coastal permits for ports
    RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop and Transport Minister Simeon Brown have today announced the Coalition Government’s intention to extend port coastal permits for a further 20 years, providing port operators with certainty to continue their operations. “The introduction of the Resource Management Act in 1991 required ports to obtain coastal ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Inflation coming down, but more work to do
    Today’s announcement that inflation is down to 4 per cent is encouraging news for Kiwis, but there is more work to be done - underlining the importance of the Government’s plan to get the economy back on track, acting Finance Minister Chris Bishop says. “Inflation is now at 4 per ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • School attendance restored as a priority in health advice
    Refreshed health guidance released today will help parents and schools make informed decisions about whether their child needs to be in school, addressing one of the key issues affecting school attendance, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. In recent years, consistently across all school terms, short-term illness or medical reasons ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Unnecessary bureaucracy cut in oceans sector
    Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones is streamlining high-level oceans management while maintaining a focus on supporting the sector’s role in the export-led recovery of the economy. “I am working to realise the untapped potential of our fishing and aquaculture sector. To achieve that we need to be smarter with ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Patterson promoting NZ’s wool sector at International Congress
    Associate Agriculture Minister Mark Patterson is speaking at the International Wool Textile Organisation Congress in Adelaide, promoting New Zealand wool, and outlining the coalition Government’s support for the revitalisation the sector.    "New Zealand’s wool exports reached $400 million in the year to 30 June 2023, and the coalition Government ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • Removing red tape to help early learners thrive
    The Government is making legislative changes to make it easier for new early learning services to be established, and for existing services to operate, Associate Education Minister David Seymour says. The changes involve repealing the network approval provisions that apply when someone wants to establish a new early learning service, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • RMA changes to cut coal mining consent red tape
    Changes to the Resource Management Act will align consenting for coal mining to other forms of mining to reduce barriers that are holding back economic development, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The inconsistent treatment of coal mining compared with other extractive activities is burdensome red tape that fails to acknowledge ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • McClay reaffirms strong NZ-China trade relationship
    Trade, Agriculture and Forestry Minister Todd McClay has concluded productive discussions with ministerial counterparts in Beijing today, in support of the New Zealand-China trade and economic relationship. “My meeting with Commerce Minister Wang Wentao reaffirmed the complementary nature of the bilateral trade relationship, with our Free Trade Agreement at its ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • Prime Minister Luxon acknowledges legacy of Singapore Prime Minister Lee
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon today paid tribute to Singapore’s outgoing Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong.   Meeting in Singapore today immediately before Prime Minister Lee announced he was stepping down, Prime Minister Luxon warmly acknowledged his counterpart’s almost twenty years as leader, and the enduring legacy he has left for Singapore and South East ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • PMs Luxon and Lee deepen Singapore-NZ ties
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. While in Singapore as part of his visit to South East Asia this week, Prime Minister Luxon also met with Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam and will meet with Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong.  During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Antarctica New Zealand Board appointments
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has made further appointments to the Board of Antarctica New Zealand as part of a continued effort to ensure the Scott Base Redevelopment project is delivered in a cost-effective and efficient manner.  The Minister has appointed Neville Harris as a new member of the Board. Mr ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Finance Minister travels to Washington DC
    Finance Minister Nicola Willis will travel to the United States on Tuesday to attend a meeting of the Five Finance Ministers group, with counterparts from Australia, the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom.  “I am looking forward to meeting with our Five Finance partners on how we can work ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Pet bonds a win/win for renters and landlords
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