web analytics

Rush to judge turns embarrassing

Written By: - Date published: 12:30 pm, June 2nd, 2010 - 18 comments
Categories: budget 2010, Media, polls, spin - Tags:

The Budget is turning into something of an embarrassment for the media. Even before it had been released, the journos in their lock-up had written pieces proclaiming it a hugely popular success. The evidence suggests that they got it wrong. The people think they’ll be worse off. Journos need to re-assess their tendency to judge public opinion before the public’s opinion has even had a chance to form, let alone been sampled.

John Armstrong is most obviously caught out. The Saturday after the Budget he wrote:

“[The Budget bears] the indelible hallmark of John Key. It is the imprint of the risk-taker prepared to up the stakes considerably in order to secure an even bigger payout when he wins.

The gamble seems to have paid off – at least so far. Although highly unscientific, a TV One-Close Up poll on Thursday night provided a thumping endorsement of National’s tax package and other measures unveiled that afternoon.

That result was replicated in a similarly unscientific Herald online poll yesterday with those considering the Budget a winner running at nearly three to one. It is unusual for modern Budgets to capture the public’s attention in the way this one has”

Then, just ten days later, without irony wrote:

“Voters’ love affair with PM cools: Perhaps the only surprise in National shedding a hefty five percentage points in the latest opinion poll is that the drop in support for the governing party was not even greater…

The Morgan poll results also suggest the Budget has not (yet) paid the dividend National had hoped. Further results last night from the One News poll may explain why.

Respondents generally did not believe the tax cuts would make them better off”

Where’s a memory-hole when you need one?

18 comments on “Rush to judge turns embarrassing ”

  1. Draco T Bastard 1

    The colours of the journos and their blind ideological support of NACT are starting to come to the surface now. But I’m not expecting this to improve our journalism any time in the near future. They’ll keep spouting the NACT = good, Labour = bad meme.

  2. Croc 2

    Not like you would ever rush to judge eh Marty?

    • Bright Red 2.1

      The problem isn’t with them forming personal judgements and expresing them. It’s with deciding what the public thinks without asking the public first.

      captcha: trusted

      • Croc 2.1.1

        Do you think this site would ever write a positive review of a National budget?

        • Lanthanide 2.1.1.1

          If it was a good budget, yes. What’s your point?

        • Pascal's bookie 2.1.1.2

          Why hold Marty G to the same standards as John Armstrong? Is JA a blogger on an openly partisan blog? Or is MG a senior press gallery journo?

          What’s your point here, croc? Coz you didn’t address BR’s point at all.

  3. randal 3

    how long will it take to sink in that the msm in new zealand is a claque of tame pussycats who had their claws drawn in playschool.
    they all think they are on the trail of the big scoop/story but all they produce is a regurgitation of the pap they have have been swilling on all their lives.

  4. uke 4

    Maybe a quite special delusion sets in when you become a high-profile commentator. You acquire mystical powers of discerning what is in everybody’s minds. Even 4 million people at once. Just standing on Lambton Quay with your finger in the air you pick up “vibes”, a “buzz”.

    Really it’s just the commentators buzzing back and forth at each other in their funny little world.

  5. PK 5

    ***The people think they’ll be worse off.***

    Is there a poll on the budget you’re referring too?

  6. Evidence-Based Practice 6

    I think it is because the journalists and commentators at that level are on quite high incomes (comparative to the median income of around $30,000) but think they are the norm, so assume that what intially sounds beneficial to them personally will also sound beneficial to everyone else. I don’t think they can understand what surviving on a benefit or the minimum wage is actually like on a daily basis.

    • Lanthanide 6.1

      I think it’s slightly more nuanced than that. They think the the average wage figure of $48k thrown around by the Nats means “about half the public are on that wage”, so a budget that has a rabbit of bigger-than-expected gains for those “average” people seems like something wondrous to them and they’re sure that the public are going to be receptive of it. Especially when the budget also threw a bone to the more wealthy landlords who only escaped with the depreciation shtick and not ring-fencing or any kind of capital gains tax.

      What they missed out on is that “average” is not the same as “median”, and they never pull up the Nats on it either, so I assume they simply don’t know the difference. This was clear a few weeks back when a story written in the Herald about CEOs salaries repeatedly used the term “average” when the guy who did the research was on National Radio in the morning saying “median”.

      • Craig 6.1.1

        Lanthanide

        Actually, the median IS an average. Just as the mean and mode are averages as well. They are all statistical measures of where the distributions lies.

        I think what you are trying to say is that people tend to think of the ‘mean’ when they say average.

        And I agree, it is a shocker that people don’t know the difference and that it leads to incorrect inferences.

  7. JacksSmirkingRevenge 7

    I agree. Tax cuts good, GST increase bad.

  8. tc 8

    We don’t have a media in NZ just mediums of message delivery (print/radio/tv/web) mostly owned offshore with agendas not aligned with the bulk of NZ’ers.

    John Armstrong in particular could give over his next few pieces with publish dates on them he’s so pre-conceived and as such has no credibility…..they wonder why old media’s in decline it’s simple……there’s nothing of interest/intelligence much anymore…….just the likes of Woodham etc

    • Hanswurst 8.1

      Erm… what the hell are you on about? You are aware that media is the plural of medium, right? So “a media” is just a case of incorrect grammar, while “mediums” = “media”; all you have done with your first assertion is misspell “media of message delivery”, which is just a roundabout way of saying “media”.

      • felix 8.1.1

        tc’s first and third instances of the word “media” are (quite obviously) intended to mean “fourth estate” which is a very common and perfectly acceptable way to use the word.

        Awesome grammar-pedant skillz though. The force is strong in this one.

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Celebrating the Entry Into Force of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons
    [Opening comments, welcome and thank you to Auckland University etc] It is a great pleasure to be here this afternoon to celebrate such an historic occasion - the entry into force of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. This is a moment many feared would never come, but ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Supporting disabled people to stay connected
    The Government is providing $3 million in one-off seed funding to help disabled people around New Zealand stay connected and access support in their communities, Minister for Disability Issues, Carmel Sepuloni announced today. The funding will allow disability service providers to develop digital and community-based solutions over the next two ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Voluntary saliva testing offered to quarantine workers from Monday
    Border workers in quarantine facilities will be offered voluntary daily COVID-19 saliva tests in addition to their regular weekly testing, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today. This additional option will be rolled out at the Jet Park Quarantine facility in Auckland starting on Monday 25 January, and then to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Next steps in firearms buy-back
    The next steps in the Government’s ambitious firearms reform programme to include a three-month buy-back have been announced by Police Minister Poto Williams today.  “The last buy-back and amnesty was unprecedented for New Zealand and was successful in collecting 60,297 firearms, modifying a further 5,630 firearms, and collecting 299,837 prohibited ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • New Public Housing Plan announced
    The Government has released its Public Housing Plan 2021-2024 which outlines the intention of where 8,000 additional public and transitional housing places announced in Budget 2020, will go. “The Government is committed to continuing its public house build programme at pace and scale. The extra 8,000 homes – 6000 public ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Prime Minister congratulates President Joe Biden on his inauguration
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has congratulated President Joe Biden on his inauguration as the 46th President of the United States of America. “I look forward to building a close relationship with President Biden and working with him on issues that matter to both our countries,” Jacinda Ardern said. “New Zealand ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Jobs for Nature funding will create training and employment opportunities
    A major investment to tackle wilding pines in Mt Richmond will create jobs and help protect the area’s unique ecosystems, Biosecurity Minister Damien O’Connor says. The Mt Richmond Forest Park has unique ecosystems developed on mineral-rich geology, including taonga plant species found nowhere else in the country. “These special plant ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Pre-departure testing extended to all passengers to New Zealand
    To further protect New Zealand from COVID-19, the Government is extending pre-departure testing to all passengers to New Zealand except from Australia, Antarctica and most Pacific Islands, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “The change will come into force for all flights arriving in New Zealand after 11:59pm (NZT) on Monday ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Bay Cadets learn skills to protect environment
    Bay Conservation Cadets launched with first intake Supported with $3.5 million grant Part of $1.245b Jobs for Nature programme to accelerate recover from Covid Cadets will learn skills to protect and enhance environment Environment Minister David Parker today welcomed the first intake of cadets at the launch of the Bay ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Cook Islanders to resume travel to New Zealand
    The Prime Minister of New Zealand Jacinda Ardern and the Prime Minister of the Cook Islands Mark Brown have announced passengers from the Cook Islands can resume quarantine-free travel into New Zealand from 21 January, enabling access to essential services such as health. “Following confirmation of the Cook Islands’ COVID ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Supporting communities and landowners to grow employment opportunities
    Jobs for Nature funding is being made available to conservation groups and landowners to employ staff and contractors in a move aimed at boosting local biodiversity-focused projects, Conservation Minister Kiritapu Allan has announced. It is estimated some 400-plus jobs will be created with employment opportunities in ecology, restoration, trapping, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Border exception for some returning international tertiary students
    The Government has approved an exception class for 1000 international tertiary students, degree level and above, who began their study in New Zealand but were caught offshore when border restrictions began. The exception will allow students to return to New Zealand in stages from April 2021. “Our top priority continues ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Tiwai deal gives time for managed transition
    Today’s deal between Meridian and Rio Tinto for the Tiwai smelter to remain open another four years provides time for a managed transition for Southland. “The deal provides welcome certainty to the Southland community by protecting jobs and incomes as the region plans for the future. The Government is committed ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New member for APEC Business Advisory Council
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has appointed Anna Curzon to the APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC). The leader of each APEC economy appoints three private sector representatives to ABAC. ABAC provides advice to leaders annually on business priorities. “ABAC helps ensure that APEC’s work programme is informed by business community perspectives ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Govt’s careful economic management recognised
    The Government’s prudent fiscal management and strong policy programme in the face of the COVID-19 global pandemic have been acknowledged by the credit rating agency Fitch. Fitch has today affirmed New Zealand’s local currency rating at AA+ with a stable outlook and foreign currency rating at AA with a positive ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Additional actions to keep COVID-19 out of NZ
    The Government is putting in place a suite of additional actions to protect New Zealand from COVID-19, including new emerging variants, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “Given the high rates of infection in many countries and evidence of the global spread of more transmissible variants, it’s clear that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • 19 projects will clean up and protect waterways
    $36 million of Government funding alongside councils and others for 19 projects Investment will clean up and protect waterways and create local jobs Boots on the ground expected in Q2 of 2021 Funding part of the Jobs for Nature policy package A package of 19 projects will help clean up ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New Zealand Government acknowledges 175th anniversary of Battle of Ruapekapeka
    The commemoration of the 175th anniversary of the Battle of Ruapekapeka represents an opportunity for all New Zealanders to reflect on the role these conflicts have had in creating our modern nation, says Associate Minister for Arts, Culture and Heritage Kiri Allan. “The Battle at Te Ruapekapeka Pā, which took ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Better care for babies with tongue-tie
    Babies born with tongue-tie will be assessed and treated consistently under new guidelines released by the Ministry of Health, Associate Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall announced today. Around 5% to 10% of babies are born with a tongue-tie, or ankyloglossia, in New Zealand each year. At least half can ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago