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RWC and rapists: 3 News poll confirms a pretty average week for Key.

Written By: - Date published: 6:51 pm, November 22nd, 2015 - 29 comments
Categories: Andrew Little, john key, Media, Politics, polls, winston peters - Tags: , ,

The latest Reid Research/3 News poll is out. National have dipped slightly and Key’s personal support has dropped despite the PM’s sucking up to the AB’s. He’s been mired in the thirties for months, when for years he used to be comfortably in the forties. Hie weird rapist comments haven’t hurt him much, but they clearly haven’t helped.

As 3 News note:

“For six years his preferred Prime Minister’s rating was almost always in the 40 percent region. Now he has dropped into the 30 percent region after that pony-tail pulling charade. He has been there since.”

Winston Peters has it seen it all before:

“The tide runs out for even the biggest PR operation.”

Labour under Andrew Little seem to have cemented themselves in the low thirties. That’s a big step forward from election day. There’s a solid platform to be built on there.


The numbers:

National: 46.7%

Labour: 32.3%

Greens: 10.2

NZF: 7.5

The rest: margin of error stuff.

3 News translate this result to 61 seats to the right, 60 to the opposition.

Preferred PM:

Key: 38.3%

Little: 10.4

Peters: 9.3

Ardern: 4.2


So, no great shifts, but Key continues to under perform. How long will the National grandees let him hang on?

Taxi for Mr Key?










29 comments on “RWC and rapists: 3 News poll confirms a pretty average week for Key. ”

  1. Ad 1

    32.3 against RWC; yup I’ll take that.

  2. NZJester 2

    The RWC most likely did boost his numbers. His outburst in parliament would be what lost him any gain. I would love to know the breakdown in the sex of those preferring John Key. I bet his male numbers went up and his female numbers when down.

  3. b waghorn 3

    Why the hell is dipstick gower determined to keep Aotearoa in perpetual election mode?

  4. Draco T Bastard 4

    So, no great shifts, but Key continues to under perform. How long will the National grandees let him hang on?

    Probably quite awhile as he’s still the only leader that National has that can appear to connect to the general population.

    • Lanthanide 4.1

      According to Simon Lusk, their next leader is Paula Bennett. I think she connects quite well with their base, but probably not a lot further.

  5. Enough is Enough 5

    Sounds like something written by Comical Ali.

    How can we even pretend these numbers are anything but shit. Especially in light of what that fool Key has been doing in parliament in the last month.

    Do not assume Winston will automatically go into the grand coalition of the left. Until we begin seeing numbers whereby Winston is a luxury rather than a necessity, I will not sleep easy.

    • Lanthanide 5.1

      “Until we begin seeing numbers whereby Winston is a luxury rather than a necessity”

      I don’t think we’ll seed that before 2018.

  6. Magisterium 6

    Support that would return National to power and Key four times as popular as the Leader of the Labour Party, and this is something to celebrate?

    • This poll suggests Key is barely hanging on and that he got nothing from the RWC. That’s not been our previous experience, btw. At the last RWC he was the AB’s guy. Now, not so much. He has also gained nothing from the ‘rapists’ outburst, when that sort of thing used to be catnip for voters. So, I reckon what used to work is not looking so flash at the moment.

      Labour, NZF and the Greens will be quietly pleased with this result at a time when the old Key would have been on a crest of a rugby generated nationalist wave.

      Things change: first by inches, then by miles.

      • GranHad 6.1.1

        -This poll suggests Key is barely hanging on and that he got nothing from the RWC. That’s not been our previous experience, btw.

        A sample size of two is far from a reliable bit of info to draw inferences from..

  7. Colonial Viper 7

    National – 44.5 percent, down 1.9 percent
    Labour – 33.5 percent, up 1.3 percent
    Greens – 12.4 percent, up 2 percent
    NZ First – 5.7 percent, up 1.5 percent

    Read more: http://www.3news.co.nz/politics/poll-shows-winston-peters-as-kingmaker-2014020216#ixzz3sCXBEqLb

    The Feb 2014 TV3 poll was better for Labour and Greens than now (46% combined vote).

    • Jenny Kirk 7.1

      Yeah – but most people are looking at Key’s rating and its going down, down, down.

      Key’s cuddling up to Richie McCaw hasn’t improved it, (no wonder he was so desperate for Richie to become a “knight”) and his rapist remarks might well have helped decrease it. And the Nats as a political party are going down too – wonder why that is ? And Labour and Greens and NZF are creeping upwards – that’s what we want to see. Not a big sudden surge, but a good little continual creep up – while the Nats go down. Good to see.

      Hey, CV – isn’t it about time you got over your grouches and started thinking a bit more positively ?

      • Daniel Cale 7.1.1

        Jenny you’re dreaming.

        John Key’s polling is nearly 4 times that of Andrew Little, who barely sits ahead of Winston Peters.

        By this point in the same period of Helen Clarks Prime Ministership, her polling was in the low 30’s and dropping, while Key’s rose rapidly between May 2006 and May 2007 when he went ahead of Clark.

        Labour are in serious trouble, They are led by an angry union lacky who cannot connect with the public, they are broke and don’t have anyone who raise money like Mike Williams used to, and they are spinning so fast overturning previous policy.

    • weka 7.2

      “The Feb 2014 TV3 poll was better for Labour and Greens than now (46% combined vote).”


  8. infused 8

    Key barely hanging on! National in trouble.

    You must be hitting hr turpes hard.

  9. Daniel Cale 9

    Your analysis makes the same leftist mistake of counting NZF with the opposition. This just isn’t going to happen. But what is so funny is that the same left who call for progressive policies are prepared to jump into an electoral bed with a party led by an anti-immigration xenophobe, who is also a fiscal and moral conservative. It’s just delightful!

    • Stuart Munro 9.1

      There’s immigration and immigration. Medical specialists? Maybe. Property speculators? No thanks.

    • Lanthanide 9.2

      I think if Labour + Greens + NZFirst can reach in the region of 56% or more, then Winston could go with them. But any less than that, and I’d be betting for a National-led government.

      This poll puts them on 49.9, so a fair way to go, but not insurmountable, especially if the government’s arrogance continues.

  10. millsy 10

    Yet again, I am reminded of the England rugby team doing a ‘victory lap’ at Old Trafford in 1997 after losing by 17 points to the All Blacks.

  11. Thinking Right 11

    So if Key on 38% PM support is described as being ‘mired’ in the 30’s how would you describe Little on 10%? (And Little has been around 8-10% ever since he took office.)

    Is it really a positive for the Leader of the Opposition to be fighting for 2nd place with Winston Peters?

    Is it a positive with the translated seat results giving the same outcome as is currently in Parliament?

    Blinkered glasses are very comforting but they don’t win elections.

  12. Puckish Rogue 12

    What this poll tells me is that Winston has got even more power, it could be Lab/Green and Winston or it could be National/Winston

    Will Winston go with a three party split and share power three ways or will he go with National and get a bigger share of the pie? (I think part of his negotiations with National will be no MP/ Dunne or Act)

    Go with Lab/Greens that’ll be in power for at least two terms or go with National and get that knighthood…

    Who can see but it’s going to make the election even more interesting 🙂

  13. Jester 13

    I’m very surprised that many are making something out of nothing when commenting on Keys preferred PM ratings drop.

    It appears that those type of rating measures have little relationship to voting for parties on the whole and as such its a meaningless measure to report on.

  14. DS 14

    Winston knows that his supporters these days are predominantly left-leaning (who do you think got him across the line in Northland?) and he remembers the reaction after 1996. Plus he and John Key hate each other in a way that he and Jim Bolger didn’t. If he offers a deal to National, it will be something outrageous (John Key’s head, and the Finance position for himself, perhaps).

    I think what you’re looking at is Labour-NZF, with the Greens being left on the outside again. But there’s still an awfully long way to go.

  15. Tautuhi 15

    NZF is a party which resembles all New Zealanders, Winston was once most preferred PM in the Muldoon days, however the NZ media have always been up him since he tried to expose the corruption in the BNZ Fiasco and the Winebox Enquiry.

    Key will not go into a head to head debate with Winston as he will tie Key up in knots.

    Unfortunately people in NZ believe the BS in MSM, and do not have the ability to actually think for themselves.

    The NZ Public are in love with John Key because he made $50 million on Wall St and supposedly donates his salary to charity?

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