Yes. I am at university and have done Statistics papers at Stage 1, 2 and 3. What I am saying is you should not take modelling as what is going to happen.
Sorry for my short reply to your detailed post. I was more referring to places like bars, restaurants, shops e.t.c.
That was the 'worst-case scenario' a week into lockdown. What I was referring to was the predictions during the first week.
Yes, but MIQ capacity is limited. They only quarantine cases and sometimes their household. Yes, they have been doing that over the past week. I am not sure what the uptake is though. Most people do not stay just stay in their family and social groups in ...
I was very surprised the initial modelling predicted 50-100 and then 100-200 cases given it was Delta with an unknown source and many large exposure events.
Distancing is only really followed in hospitality and I suspect masks are only being worn in shops and healthcare.
What do you classify as negative social impacts of lockdown? Yes, they cited the low R-value. However, some of the daily cases are infectious in the community and in Level 3 the chances of passing it on are higher so the R-value may increase.
I was saying contract tracing cannot control Delta at Level 2, but your comment made me think about doing it 'ahead of time'. The government should have used something like the United States' Defense Production Act to force companies to become contract ...
But, it could already have been circulating in Hamilton for 2 days and there could be x number of cases? But, then you are always behind, when you pick up cases they have already passed it on?
But, if the virus is in Hamilton it will spread fast because they are only in Level 2? Isn't it basically impossible to contain Delta with contract tracing in Level 2? You can't contract trace ahead of time though? I agree with the last part, the source ...
'Group 3 unvaxxed advised to stay home', Localized lockdown - Suppression? Wouldn't people around Mangatangi have travelled into Hamilton for work? For elimination, shouldn't the whole of Waikato be in Level 4? Experts were calling for Auckland to stay in ...
My understanding of "in principle" is if things stay the same (i.e. 20+ cases a day, a handful of "concerning cases) Auckland will still move down to level 3 next Wednesday.
My understanding of "in principle" is if things stay the same (i.e. 20+ cases a day, a handful of "concerning" cases) Auckland will still move down to level 3 next Wednesday.
Yes, although we are seeing some close contacts spreading the virus before they are isolating. They said "only a handful" of the 17 are concerning. Yesterday there were 34 unlinked cases and that dropped by half today which was sudden. I agree, although ...
In the press conference they said they have agreed "in principle" to move Auckland down to level 3 next Wednesday.
In the press conference they said they have agreed "in principle" to move Auckland down to level 3 next Wednesday.
That is my interpretation. I listened to the press conference and skimmed through the Herald article...what did you get from it?
Serious question (Has the government ditched elimination?) Last 3 days - Cases: 23, 20, 33 Today - Level 3 in Auckland in 8 days 'likely', 'Get vaccinated this week' (Not as safe after this week because re-opening even if cases are 20+ a day?)
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