Most of the criticism I've seen of this falls into one of three categories: a) Obvious racism. I don't think we need to waste time discussing that nonsense, and it discredits anyone who tries it. I'm sure to some degree other critiques are motivated by ...
Happy to discuss elitism within Labour or the Left generally, but what exactly are you citing as evidence here that either Minister Mahuta herself or her appointment is a result of elitism? So far you've just thrown the accusation without really backing it...
Yeah, entirely possible voters are not looking for attack politics right now and this hit NZF hard because it's basically all they do well, lol. Worth a thought. Would also have made their promise to "take out the Greens" from Parliament especially ill-...
Just a note that I had accidentally left in Dale Stephens in the list of "lost incumbents" for National, and that this is now corrected. He's not an incumbent, and I had temporarily included him with the intention of deleting him out of the table so as to ...
(now that I've checked out Edgler's post, it's good to note ACT traditionally lose votes on the specials. This election may be an exception due to the exodus to them and new emphasis on firearms rights, but I'd guess it's more likely not to be)
I'm probably not the best one to weigh in on rural issues, haha, but I wouldn't mind seeing him have a tilt at a junior ministry or associate role this term.
I've been on a weird schedule lately so I didn't exactly turn in as tired as it might seem, lol
It would absolutely be possible, but it might be more than funny- ACT is the closest to getting an extra MP on the specials, although historically they don't do as well on them as some other parties.Overtaking them could bring Steve Abel into Parliament.
I mean, to be fair, it's entirely possible the same farmers that always voted Nats still did, and Labour won over the votes of basically everyone else in the community, haha. ;) Or at least that the ones that didn't were making a sneaky strategic vote to ...
I am skeptical that this will be Labour's direction, but if they start moving that way I'm very ready to switch to hopeful. The reaching out to crossover ex-nats on election day and the related rhetoric made it sound a lot like the fact there have been no ...
I'd expect Whangārei to be the only one to maybe flip, given how the specials usually go for the Greens, but I'll defer to someone more expert with judging the numbers there if anyone wants to pop up. I think Waiariki is arguably close enough to flip back ...
Yeah, I'm not much of a fan of the concept of electorates in general, but McAnulty is one incredibly based MP. The kind Labour needs more of, and very deserving of the win. Also cracked up when TVNZ mentioned Morgan's opinions of his ute, lol.
This sort of thing never hurt them before, but it's possible that in the age of the internet, the news actually reached their potential voters a lot better than it would've otherwise, because they didn't have to watch telly news to hear about the ...
It's entirely possible. Combine that with potentially losing Pugh if there's a strong specials showing on the party list, and National could be having a second really bad night when the final results come in. Reti is high enough that he simply retains his ...
It's the hardest for Labour of anyone. It's CERTAINLY possible on the back of this performance, but it would be very hard. This is WHY I point out they're the most likely to lose an MP.
Dear reader, I was not even up in the morning. lol
Just a note- I'm going to bed now after having published this post, so while I won't be around to moderate early in the morning, please don't make work for any other moderators who happen to beat me to checking it in the morning. I'll personally take a dim...
Written By: Matthew Whitehead - Date published: 2:33 am, October 18th, 2020 - 58 comments
Categories: act, election 2020, greens, labour, maori party, MMP, national, nz first
Tags:
With all the preliminary votes counted for the night, so let's look at who's in most likely and out: Electorate MPs: (Alphabetically by winner's party name, then by electorate name, a slight reformatting of the official results) Electorate Leading …
Why would you pay out anything for a labour government at this stage, lol, basically free money. ;)
If anyone had trouble reading the graphs on the original version of this post, I've updated it so that all the shrunken ones (the first six) can be clicked-through to the full scale file. I had forgotten the editor doesn't default to that, sorry!
I'm kinda loving that NZF haven't had a last-minute surge, or rather, that they've had it and it was... 1% extra, lol. Thanks for the correction Lynn, even better!
Note for those who haven't read the election day info: Pre-moderation will switch on during the regulated election day period. If you're seeing others' comments posted but yours aren't showing up, this is why. You don't need to submit them again. :)
No problem, it's been a rush for me with a lot in my personal life, but I've been trying to make time to do this analysis for everyone. I've got them all up on twitter under #nzpoll, but not all of them made it to this site unfortunately. Very glad I could...
Written By: Matthew Whitehead - Date published: 10:46 pm, October 16th, 2020 - 10 comments
Categories: act, election 2020, greens, labour, maori party, national, nz first
Tags: approval polling, colmar brunton, electorates, newshub, party lists, polling, pollwatch, reid research, roy morgan, tvnz
All three major pollsters have delivered their final results within two days of election day, giving us a nice picture into what the spread of results tomorrow could look like, with the trend looking good for some sort of centre-left government, but a …
I actually think there's a really sound strategy to keeping the noise on the wealth tax now that Labour's not on our side on this subject too, rather than the GMI. I want both, but if we have to sacrifice one in talks, let's sacrifice the tax, and pay for ...
So close to getting it, lol.
Kia ora Maria- just advance voted yesterday, and this referendum is the one I gave the nod to.
You're assuming throwing the Greens an electorate seat doesn't affect the party vote for one or both parties based on how voters feel about such a deal. Smarter would've been to lower the threshold, as it's a change we need to make for our electoral system...
Nah, that's just a matter of me not having added him to the list of electorate-only candidates for Labour after ILG's resignation. I've confirmed he's running and done that for future list calcs, so he would technically bump Angela Roberts out of ...
A majority government where Labour invests in possibly needing the Greens again in the future looks very different to a minority government where Labour has no choice but to secure the Greens' support.
Last time he polled anywhere near this level he was out of Parliament that term, and he was polling 1-2% higher at that point.
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